A Synthesis of Papers about the Madden-Julian Oscillation under Anthropogenic Warming

Maloney, et al. (2019) Madden–Julian oscillation changes under anthropogenic warming (paywalled) is a summary of a gazillion papers (well, that may be an exaggeration) about the future of the Madden-Julian oscillation in an anthropogenic-warming world. There’s an assumption there, isn’t there?

The MJO is of great interest to many weather forecasters.

The abstract of Maloney, et al. (2019) reads:

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) produces a region of enhanced precipitation that travels eastwards along the Equator in a 40–50 day cycle, perturbing tropical and high-latitude winds, and thereby modulating extreme weather events such as flooding, hurricanes and heat waves. Here, we synthesize current understanding on projected changes in the MJO under anthropogenic warming, demonstrating that MJO-related precipitation variations are likely to increase in intensity, whereas wind variations are likely to increase at a slower rate or even decrease. Nevertheless, future work should address uncertainties in the amplitude of precipitation and wind changes and the impacts of projected SST patterns, with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme weather.

Hmmm, “…wind variations are likely to increase at a slower rate or even decrease…” That narrows it down.

Also (with my boldface), “…MJO-related precipitation variations are likely to increase in intensity…” If that’s a “likely” based on the IPCC likely scale, then that’s about a 66% likelihood, or so they say.

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January 8, 2019 2:19 am

Despite imaginary very-scary climate change, the MJO will keep on working. 🙂

Pillage Idiot
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
January 8, 2019 7:23 am

Allan,

You win for best pun of the day.

I don’t know if that is “high” praise or “low” praise.

WXcycles
January 8, 2019 2:41 am
WXcycles
January 8, 2019 2:47 am
andy
Reply to  WXcycles
January 8, 2019 5:19 am

Wow. I could see that it was struggling but there is no warmth left anywhere on that.

Macusn
Reply to  WXcycles
January 8, 2019 5:47 am

How do they have observations out to Jan 19th? Or is this a model?

Mac

Phil R
Reply to  Macusn
January 8, 2019 3:33 pm

It’s monthly. The figure for January is dated January 7th.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  WXcycles
January 8, 2019 7:27 am

Thanks.

I’ll keep my UAH chart prediction of zero global temp anomaly in 2019.

Ian Wilson
Reply to  WXcycles
January 8, 2019 8:03 am
M__ S__
January 8, 2019 3:00 am

There is no end to rationalizing failure.

It’s getting warmer because it’s getting colder.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  M__ S__
January 8, 2019 4:11 am

It definitely is.

Here in Oz, looking at the data from the Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) for this month so far, the graphs show both max and min temps as briefly going over the long term average once for min and twice for max, and only very, very slightly.

Look at the data below, and the average max and min for this month are 0.5C and 0.9C above the long term average, even though the graph above shows this is complete bullshit.

George Orwell would be proud.

I will start taking screenshots of this blatant lying at the end of each month now, and keep a catalog.

Reply to  M__ S__
January 8, 2019 4:49 am

My grandson once asked me, “If earth is getting warmer, does that mean space is getting colder?” I said, “Yep, that’s pretty much how it works.” My daughter is still mad at me, because now he thinks he’s got it all figured out.

knr
January 8, 2019 3:27 am

Definitely , maybe

Alexander Vissers
January 8, 2019 3:47 am

As honest and modest a finding as you will find. The science is not settled, more likely in its prime.

Admad
January 8, 2019 3:47 am

Johanus
January 8, 2019 4:34 am

An image is worth a thousand words. Here is a model (using blended advection of microwave water vapor data with GFS winds) of the planetary water vapor flow. Equatorial flow is mainly westward (prevailing easterly trade winds), but Coriolis force causes winds to veer to right in the NH (to the left in SH) creating prevailing westerlies in the tropics and subtropics.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nesdis_colors&prod=global2&timespan=120hrs&anim=html5

You can see the pattern of weather now hitting the West Coast, associated with the MJO, creating these winter-time weather anomalies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation#Pineapple_Express_events

Johann Wundersamer
Reply to  Johanus
January 8, 2019 9:17 am

“An image is worth a thousand words.” +++

pochas94
January 8, 2019 4:34 am

MJO: Whatever it’s doing at 90E, it will be doing the opposite at 90W. Well sometimes, anyway.

Pop Piasa
Reply to  pochas94
January 8, 2019 10:46 am

There does appear to be a correlation between convection over the Indian Ocean and geopotential heights over NA.

Phoenix44
January 8, 2019 6:48 am

A model of something poorly understood applied to something that is even less well-understood.

But it says things will get bad, so its “science”.

Climate science has become as flaky as sociology and all those non-science sciences we have to pay for.

Ian Wilson
January 8, 2019 7:55 am

I having no trouble predicting when westerly wind bursts in MJO events occur. In addition, I am able to tell which of these wind bursts will be stronger than normal.

The westerly wind-bursts are produced by the westerly-moving equatorial-Rossby waves that are generated at the location of the active phase of the MJO. The Rosby waves are generated when the local peak tidal strength is changing at its maximum rate (when measured from day-to-day) – This occurs when the latitude of the Moon is either crossing the equator or at a lunar standstill.

The westerly wind burst events are enhanced once every 14 – 15 days when the Moon passes through the meridian at the time of peak local thunderstorm activity (i.e. roughly 3:00 p.m.), near the longitudes of the active phase of the MJO.

You can see some of my supporting evidence at my blog site:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/

Ian Wilson
Reply to  Ian Wilson
January 8, 2019 5:51 pm

Correction: paragraph 3 should read:

The westerly wind burst events are enhanced roughly once every 7 days when the Moon passes through the meridian at the time of lowest daily surface pressure (i.e. 4:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m.), near the longitudes of the active phase of the MJO.

Mike Rosati
January 8, 2019 8:14 am

Climate science(?) is flummery based on need of a paycheck. Real-time imagery never lies. KISS principle in full view. De-fund the seance hucksters.

Editor
January 8, 2019 9:15 am

+42×1042 for using John Madden as the featured image!

January 8, 2019 9:15 am

Googled it, wow, can a description this vague be describing a phenomenon that actually exists? I wouldn’t want MY name associated with anything like that…

Dave Fair
January 8, 2019 9:23 am

“… future work should address uncertainties in the amplitude of precipitation and wind changes and the impacts of projected SST patterns …”: Send more money, my friends and I need a job.

Please ask Bob Tisdale about when the UN IPCC climate models ever got their “projected SST patterns” even remotely consistent with observations.

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