The Week That Was: 2018-12-08 (December 8, 2018) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” — Attributed to Abraham Lincoln
Number of the Week: Minus 211,000 bb/d
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Dear Reader of The Week That Was,
The Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) is a 501-c-3 organization, incorporated in Virginia. Its Federal I.D. Number is 54-1645372 and donations are US tax deductible. Established in 1990 by S. Fred Singer to challenge government environmental policies based on poor science, SEPP stands for objective science, based on hard evidence.
No matter how elaborate, results from numerical models that are not thoroughly and repeatedly tested against hard evidence are speculation and cannot be relied upon. Testing the results from using parts of a model against the results from the entire model is a ruse used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It is like declaring that a simple linear equation with two unknowns has a unique solution. Major government policies based on speculation are a waste of resources.
Our founder, Dr. Singer, is Chairman emeritus. Physicist Dr. Thomas Sheahen is Chairman. Other distinguished scientists serve on the board of directors. Ken Haapala continues as president and oversees general operations. We continue to be very productive.
Two prevalent myths are damaging our economy and hurting the less fortunate: 1) greenhouse gases, chiefly carbon dioxide, are causing dangerous global warming; and 2) wind and solar can easily replace fossil fuels, nuclear, and hydro in electricity generation. Both are false, yet widely accepted. We continue to contest these myths, and others, with hard evidence.
In collaboration with like-minded groups, we produce hard-hitting comments for the public record and provide scientific testimony on Federal government climate and energy policy. We are actively attempting to eliminate or change the EPA’s endangerment finding, that carbon dioxide, CO2, poses a danger to public health, which lacks hard evidence.
In 2007, SEPP established NIPCC (Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change) to respond to the false claims of the UN-IPCC, and its followers, who claim, without hard evidence, that the use of fossil fuels, and CO2 emissions, will lead to climate disasters. The Heartland Institute continues the NIPCC efforts with well-attended sessions of the International Conference on Climate Change and the NIPCC reports at www.NIPCCreport.org.
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The Persistent Sun: In his first blog post in ScienceBits for some time, Nir Shaviv, Chairman, Racah Institute of Physics, describes his brief presentation to Environment committee of the German Bundestag. The invitation was quite a surprise, because Shaviv is a climate “skeptic” meaning he does not believe carbon dioxide (CO2) is the primary driver of climate change – the sun is. Shaviv makes another important distinction between his work and the work of global warming promoters of CO2-caused warming such as the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its US followers, the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). As Shaviv states:
“However, I am looking for the drivers of the warming, not the consequences at this point! And the fact that sea level is rising does not contradict the fact that you see the sun’s 11-year signature clearly, with which you can quantify the solar radiative forcing.”
All too frequently the consequences of global warming / climate change are used as evidence that CO2 is the cause. It is not. And many promoters claim that if it is not CO2, they cannot think of anything else. This goes to their lack of imagination and their simplistic notions on how our enormously complex climate system works – to the extent it is understood. Shaviv begins his lecture with:
“Three minutes is not a lot of time, so let me be brief. I’ll start with something that might shock you. There is no evidence that CO2 has a large effect on climate. The two arguments used by the IPCC to so called “prove” that humans are the main cause of global warming, and which implies that climate sensitivity is high, are that: a) 20th century warming is unprecedented, and b) there is nothing else to explain the warming.
“These arguments are faulty. Why you ask?
“We know from the climate-gate e-mails that the hockey stick was an example of shady science. The medieval warm period and little ice ages were in fact global and real. And, although the IPCC will not admit so, we know that the sun has a large effect on climate, and on the 20th century warming in particular.
In the first slide we see one of the most important graphs that the IPCC is simply ignoring. Published already in 2008, you can see a very clear correlation between sea level change rate from tide gauges, and solar activity. This proves beyond any doubt that the sun has a large effect on climate. But it is ignored.
The graph is quite compelling, there is a strong correlation, both increase and decrease, between the rate of change in sea level (note rate of change in sea levels not just change in sea levels) and changes in the solar constant. The data is from about 1920 to about 2000. The IPCC can say it ignores this data because its mandate is to find human cause. But, the USGCRP has no such excuse, because its mandate from Congress is to understand both human and natural causes of climate change. By ignoring such relationships in its “Fourth National Assessment” the USGCRP has ignored is responsibilities to Congress and to the American public.
When presenting the graph of “Radiative forcing by emissions and drivers” by the IPCC Shaviv comments:
“This is the contribution to the radiative forcing from different components, as summarized in the IPCC AR5. As you can see, it is claimed that the solar contribution is minute (tiny gray bar). In reality, we can use the oceans to quantify the solar forcing and see that it was probably larger than the CO2 contribution (large light brown bar).
“Any attempt to explain the 20th century warming should therefore include this large forcing. When doing so, one finds that the sun contributed more than half of the warming, and climate has to be relatively insensitive. How much? Only 1 to 1.5°C per CO2 doubling, as opposed to the IPCC range of 1.5 to 4.5. This implies that without doing anything special, future warming will be around another 1 degree over the 21st century, meeting the Copenhagen and Paris goals.
“The fact that the temperature over the past 20 years has risen significantly less than IPCC models, should raise a red flag that something is wrong with the standard picture.
“I should also add that science is not a democracy. The majority is not necessarily right! You should also be careful and make the distinction between evidence for warming and evidence for warming by humans. There is in fact no evidence for the latter. Last, people may frighten you with secondary climate effects associated with global warming, on the sea level, cryosphere, droughts floods or economic effects. However, if the underlying climate model is fundamentally wrong, all the ensuing predictions are irrelevant.
“The fear of global warming, and with it the denouncement of any other voice, is now part of our Zeitgeist. However instead of blindly flowing [going] with the flow, we should stop for a minute and think before we waste so much of our precious public resources. Maybe we will find out the that the emperor has new [no] clothes.”
Some have dismissed the solar impact because solar activity fell during the 1990s, yet surface and atmospheric temperatures rose, peaking in 1998. Shaviv states:
“First, even if the sun was the only climate driver (which I never said is the case), this anti-correlation would not have contradicted it. Following this simple logic, we could have ruled out that the sun is warming us during the day because between noon and say 2pm, when it is typically warmest, the amount of solar radiation decreases while the temperature increases. Similarly, one could rule out the sun as our source of warmth because maximum radiation is obtained in June while July and August are typically warmer. Over the period of a month or more, solar radiation decreases but the temperature increases! The reason behind this behavior is of course the finite heat capacity of the climate system.”
We must remember that the globe’s climate system is composed of two fluids in chaotic motion changing at different rates. There is no logical reason to assume the impact of the sun’s radiance on earth will immediately change with the solar changes.
Later in this post, Shaviv discusses sensitivity analyses he published in 2005 showing that if the Svensmark Hypothesis is correct, that solar activity changes cloudiness through cosmic ray modulation, the impact of a doubling of CO2 is even less than 1 to 1.5°C as stated above. To those who claim that the Svensmark Hypothesis is mere correlations Shaviv states:
“To begin with, if the correlations were just spurious, then there would have been no reason for them to continue, but since the analysis that gave the above graph was published, a new one based on 2 more solar cycles worth of satellite altimetry [measurements] was published as well. If the first correlation was a mere fluke, then there should be no reason for the correlation to continue, but they very clearly do.”
The written statement Shaviv presented neatly summarizes his findings:
1. “There is no direct evidence demonstrating that large CO2 variations cause large temperature variations. There is evidence for the opposite.
1.
2. The two arguments used by the IPCC to “prove” the catastrophic AGW picture are flawed—warming over the 20th century is not unique, while the claim that there is nothing else to explain the 20th century warming is simply wrong.
3. There are many other pseudo-arguments which are simply irrelevant. This includes the often-heard appeal to authority (the 97% claim) as well as arguments based on evidence for warming, which is not evidence for warming by humans.
4. The sun has a large but ignored effect on the climate. With it, one obtains a consistent picture for 20th century climate change, one in which more than half of the 20th century is due to solar activity increase and in which climate sensitivity [to CO2] is low (and consistent with empirical data).
5. The low climate sensitivity implies that future climate warming will be benign and within the goals set by the Copenhagen and Paris summits without having to take particular steps. One has to rethink how much resources we wish to spend on the problem which is much more benign than commonly believed.”
The USGCRP has no excuse for ignoring this science in its reports, such as the Fourth National Assessment. The science was readily available, all the USGCRP needed to do was a little basic research. See links under Science: Is the Sun Rising?
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Atmospheric Trends: The Global Temperature Report by Earth System Science Center at University of Alabama in Huntsville is out for November 2018. These reports cover the atmosphere above vast areas for which there are no surface-air instruments. The data starts in December 1978 and shows a warming trend with significant variation. The beginning of the record had significant volcanoes which cause a cooling of the atmosphere.
Since 1998, the record has been dominated by El Niño, which cause a warming by adding water vapor into the atmosphere. Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas and additional water vapor will have a significant influence in the polar regions. The Arctic is warming as one may expect, but the Antarctic is not. Next month will complete forty years of records. It will be interesting to see that report. See links under Measurement Issues – Atmosphere.
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Including That Which Does Not Exist: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a statement: “The long-term warming trend has continued in 2018, with the average global temperature set to be the fourth highest on record. The 20 warmest years on record have been in the past 22 years, with the top four in the past four years…” It was accompanied by a globe showing warming in areas for which there are no instruments to measure temperatures. These imaginary measurements cover the Antarctic and the parts of South America, Africa and Asia as well as vast stretches of oceans.
Paul Homewood has a second globe showing the areas actually covered by surface-air instruments in the “Global Temperature and Precipitation Maps.” The WMO report can be considered to be a propaganda piece for the 24th Conference of Parties which has started in Katowice, Poland, another international conference by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up, After Paris! – Policy, and After Paris! – COP 24 and Beyond.
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The Other 97%: Few climate claims are a silly as the pollsters who claim 97% of scientists agree that humans are the primary cause of climate change (or CO2 is the primary cause). George Gallup spent a lifetime trying to remove the influence of the pollster from his polls. Even he made the mistake of claiming in 1948 that Dewey would beat Truman, because he did not realize the bias that the use of telephones would introduce in a poll.
In creating the 97% myth, the pollsters deliberately introduced a bias, by “evaluating” the responses. For example, Nir Shaviv was ranked as one of the 97%, which he promptly denied. Are those rioting in France wearing yellow vests from mandatory automobile safety kits part of the 97% who are not “climate scientists?” See links under Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes.
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Largest Find in the US? The USGS has issued its estimates of the recoverable amounts of oil and gas in the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring Formation in the Permian Basin,
“Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey assessed undiscovered, technically recoverable continuous mean resources of 46.3 billion barrels of oil and 281 trillion cubic feet of gas in the Wolfcamp shale and Bone Spring Formation of the Delaware Basin in the Permian Basin Province, southeast New Mexico and west Texas.”
This is the largest continuous find in US history. But it should be noted that it includes the “source rock” not just an easily recoverable dome of oil and gas. See links under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
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Simon Abundance Index: Researchers at the CATO Institute have developed “The Simon Abundance Index: A New Way to Measure Availability of Resources” named after Julian Simon. The author of “The Ultimate Resource,” Simon believed: “As population increases, the time-price of most commodities will get cheaper for most people, most of the time. Unfortunately, most people will assume the opposite.” Simon objected to the idea that the US was running out of oil and natural gas. See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
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Biological Plasticity: the CO2 Science review of papers includes one addressing claims that:
“CO2-induced climate change has been projected to negatively impact animals by causing temperature-induced mismatches between breeding (birth/hatching) and the availability of food resources, ultimately leading to lower rates of animal survival. Yet the validity of such projections remains an open topic for debate; for it has also been projected that animals have inherent phenotypic plasticity that can minimize or nullify the predicted mismatches arising from climate change.”
The study on Canada Goose egg laying data and various environmental variables found that geese adapt. This should not be a surprise considering the drastic changes in climate as the earth came out of the last Ice Age, particularly the sudden cooling and warming during the Younger Dryas about 11,700 to 12,900 years ago. See links under Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
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Additions and Corrections: Last week TWTW misspelled Fred Singer and Jule Charney. We thank those who caught these errors.
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Number of the Week: Minus 211,000 bb/d. For the week ending November 30, the EIA reported the US imported Minus 211,000 barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products. The US was a net exporter for the first time since 1949. The climate and energy models based on 1970s assumptions need to be revised. The energy models have been updated, the climate models have not.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
My experience at the German Bundestag’s Environment Committee in a pre-COP24 discussion
By Nir Shaviv, Science Bits, Dec 7, 2018
http://www.sciencebits.com/bundestag
Written Comments: To the Committee on the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Deutscher Bundestag
By Nir Shaviv, Chairman, Racah Institute of Physics, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Nov 24, 2018
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, Draft Summary for Policymakers, NIPCC, Oct 3, 2018
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Dr. Willie Soon versus the Climate Apocalypse
By Jeffrey Foss, ICECAP, Dec 3, 2018
“More honesty and less hubris, more evidence and less dogmatism, would do a world of good.”
It’s spin to call 1850-1900 “pre-industrial era”
By Luboš Motl, the Reference Frame, Dec 6, 2018
https://motls.blogspot.com/2018/12/its-spin-to-call-1850-1900-pre.html
“Richard Lindzen likes to remind us that the pole-to-equator temperature difference was a more important time series to describe the “global climate” than the global mean temperature; and experts generally agreed with it – up to some point when the climate hysteria began to spread.”
Can Space.com Teach Us Anything Useful about Climate?
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Dec 3, 2018
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/12/can-space-com-teach-us-anything-useful-about-climate/
Fact-checking the second volume of the U.S. National Climate Assessment
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Dec 4, 2018
Extreme Wildfires Caused By Extreme Stupidity, not Global Warming
By Tim Ball and Tom Harris, Townhall, Dec 7, 2018
Have The Poorest Countries Been Hit Hardest By Climate Change/Global Warming?
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Dec 7, 2018
Yellow vest revolution shows the surrealism of decarbonization
By Luboš Motl, the Reference Frame, Dec 3, 2018
https://motls.blogspot.com/2018/12/yellow-vest-revolution-shows-surrealism.html
Defending the Orthodoxy
Five myths about climate change
By Katharine Hayhoe, Washington Post, Nov 30, 2018
Katharine Hayhoe is a professor and director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University. She is a lead author on volumes one and two of the fourth national climate assessment.
[SEPP Comment: Ignores the biggest myth – surface temperatures accurately measure the impact of greenhouse gases.]
Global carbon dioxide emissions rise even as coal wanes and renewables boom
Fossil fuel emissions have climbed for a second straight year, driven by growing energy use
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Source Stanford’s School of Earth, Dec 5, 2018
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/12/181205133945.htm
Link to paper: Global energy growth is outpacing decarbonization
By R.B. Jackson, et al., Environmental Research Letters, Dec 5, 2018
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf303
From the abstract: Recent reports have highlighted the challenge of keeping global average temperatures below 2 °C and—even more so—1.5 °C (IPCC 2018).
[SEPP Comment: Assumes a fiction: that the IPCC knows the causes of climate change.]
Trump administration organizes pushback against its own climate report
Meanwhile, the press beclowns itself by asking non-experts to comment on it.
By John Timmer, ARS Technica, Dec 3, 2018
[SEPP Comment: If the “experts” cannot produce hard evidence that CO2 is the cause, what are they expert in?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
A Possible Significant Turning Point in the Climate Scam
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Dec 6, 2018
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/4703
How Realistic Is National Climate Assessment’s Worst Case Scenario?
By Marlo Lewis, Jr., CEI, Dec 6, 2018
https://cei.org/blog/how-realistic-national-climate-assessments-worst-case-scenario
Scientists Respond to the Hype Alarm in the Recent National Climate Assessment
By H. Sterling Burnett, Heartland Institute, Dec 7, 2018
Climate Change Alarmism Is the World’s Leading Cause of Hot Gas
By David Harsany, Townhall, Dec 7, 2018
New Research: Methane Emissions From Livestock Have No Detectable Effect On The Climate
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 3, 2018
Wildfire Attribution study full of smoke
By Bob Vislocky, WUWT, Dec 7, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/07/wildfire-attribution-study-full-of-smoke/
Link to paper: Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests
By John Abatzoglou and A. Park Williams, PNAS, Oct 18, 2016
https://www.pnas.org/content/113/42/11770
[SEPP Comment: Exposing deficiencies in the PNAS paper.]
In France and the U.S., a Tale of 2 Energy Policies
By Kay Coles James, Heritage Foundation, Dec 6, 2018 {H/t Cooler Heads]
https://www.heritage.org/energy-economics/commentary/france-and-the-us-tale-2-energy-policies
HOT AIR: US and China SNUB climate change talks despite being BIGGEST coal producers
A MASSIVE United Nations climate change conference has been rendered pointless after being snubbed by China and America – the world’s biggest coal producers.
By Katie Harris, Express, UK, Dec 3, 2018
UN should sober up: There is no consensus on the threat of climate catastrophe
Editorial, The Manila Times, Dec 3, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
Polish coal aid sinks EU power market reform bid
By Frédéric Simon, EurActiv, Dec 7, 2018
https://www.euractiv.com/section/electricity/news/polish-coal-aid-sinks-eu-power-market-reform-bid/
UN secretary general urges world leaders to take climate threat seriously: ‘We are still not doing enough’
By Avery Anapol, The Hill, Dec 3, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Need more money!]
After Paris! – COP 24 and Beyond
COP 24: Climate summit language reveals hidden agenda
By David Wojick, CFACT, Dec 4, 2018
http://www.cfact.org/2018/12/04/cop-24-climate-summit-language-reveals-hidden-agenda/
Link to article on the UN Glossary: Know your NDCs from your LMDCs: A climate diplomacy glossary
Learn the lingo of international climate talks with our handy reference guide
By Karl Mathiesen and Megan Darby, Climate Home News, Nov 11, 2018
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/11/30/know-ndcs-lmdcs-climate-diplomacy-glossary/
US Isolated as World Meets to Craft Climate Plan
By Nicole Gauette, CNN, Dec 3, 2018
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/03/politics/us-climate-isolation-cop24/index.html
Link to “woeful” report: Emissions Gap Report 2018
By Staff Writers, UNEP, Nov 27, 2018
https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018
“The Report features new information on the ‘emissions gap’, which is the gap between where we are likely to be and where we need to be. It takes into account the latest scientific information, including the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C.”
[SEPP Comment: CNN has not noticed the yellow vests?]
22,000 To Attend The Katowice Jolly!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 4, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/12/04/22000-to-attend-the-katowice-jolly/
“Coal accounts for 82.3% and gas a further 6.3%.” of Poland’s total electricity generation, [Nov 24 – Dec 4.]
Brazil’s new far-right president Bolsonaro risks turning environmental champions into ‘climate rogues’, experts say
Rising levels of deforestation and climate-sceptic government among major concerns at international summit
By Harry Cockburn, Independent, UK, Dec 6, 2018
Change in US Administrations
Trump administration touts fossil fuels at U.N. climate summit
By Geoff Hill, Washington Times, Dec 6, 2018
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/dec/6/trump-administration-touts-fossil-fuels-cop-24-un-/
Emails: EPA Staffers Freaked When Pruitt Tried to Stage Climate-Change Debate
‘I liken it to a bar discussion of the best football team of all time—after 4-5 beers,’ one official wrote.
By Sam Stein & Tanya Basu, Daily Beast, Dec 5, 2018
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Carbon emissions to hit record high in 2018: study
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Dec 5, 2018
https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/419885-carbon-emissions-to-hit-record-high-in-2018-study
Global Carbon Budget: Summary Highlights
By Staff Writers, Global Carbon Project,
http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/about/index.htm
“At that level of warming — measured as the Earth’s average temperature compared with pre-industrial levels — up to 90 percent of tropical coral reefs could die, Arctic warming could cause multiple feet of sea level rise and yields of key crops would drop.”
[SEPP Comment: Sponsors include: Future Earth, CSIRO, UEA, Australian Government, Tyndall Centre, Stanford University, etc.]
As the UN Holds Global Climate Talks, Climate Consensus Is Crumbling
By Steve Goreham, The Western Journal, Dec 4, 2018
https://www.westernjournal.com/united-nations-hold-global-climate-talks-climate-consensus-crumbling/
Climate Hoax: Global CO2 Emissions Spike, Despite Paris Climate Pledges
Editorial, IBD, Dec 6, 2018
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/co2-emissions-paris-agreement/
‘A kind of dark realism’: Why the climate change problem is starting to look too big to solve
By Steven Mufson, Washington Post, Dec 4, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Is it “dark matter” or “dark energy?”
Half of Australia’s emissions increase linked to WA’s Gorgon LNG plant
Carbon emissions from nation’s largest LNG development were meant to be captured. More than two years on, the storage still hasn’t started.
By Adam Morton, The Guardian, Nov 13, 2018 [H/t RCE]
The Simon Abundance Index: A New Way to Measure Availability of Resources
By Gale L. Pooley and Marian L. Tupy, CATO, Dec 4, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
The One-sided Worldview of Eco-Pessimists
B y Joanna Szurmak and Pierre Desrochers, Quillett, Dec 3, 2018
https://quillette.com/2018/12/03/the-one-sided-worldview-of-eco-pessimists/
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Is “Action Against Climate Change” A Winning Political Issue?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Dec 6, 2018
Politics of climate expertise
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 3, 2018
https://judithcurry.com/2018/12/03/politics-of-climate-expertise-2/#more-24547
[SEPP Comment: The article discusses the issue that climate fears generated from climate models may no longer be useful. Not discussed is that the fear of CO2 is contrary to language, logic, and evidence. Wind and solar are poor replacements for thermal-powered electricity, regardless of the claimed cost, and a danger to public safety.]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Canada Geese Plastically Adjust Their Egg Laying Date to Spring Temperature
Clermont, J., Réale, D. and Giroux, J.-F. 2018. Plasticity in laying dates of Canada geese in response to spring phenology. Ibis 160: 597-607. Dec 7, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/dec/a3.php
The Increasing Surface Mass Balance of Two Antarctic Glaciers
Engel, Z., Láska, K., Nývlt, D. and Stachon, Z. 2018. Surface mass balance of small glaciers on James Ross Island, north-eastern Antarctic Peninsula, during 2009-2015. Journal of Glaciology 64: 349-361. Dec 6, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/dec/a2.php
Cassava Response to Elevated CO2 and Water Stress
Cruz, J.L., Alves, A.A.C., LeCain, D.R., Ellis, D.D. and Morgan, J.A. 2016. Elevated CO2 concentrations alleviate the inhibitory effect of drought on physiology and growth of cassava plants. Scientia Horticulturae 210: 122-129. Dec 1, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/dec/a1.php
The Mitigation of Cold Temperature Stress on Plants by Elevated CO2
Arena, C. and Vitale, L. 2018. Chilling-induced reduction of photosynthesis is mitigated by exposure to elevated CO2 concentration. Photosynthetica 56: 1259-1267. Nov 30, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/nov/a16.php
Models v. Observations
The 1991 Predictions
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, Dec 4, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/the-1991-predictions/
“So the observed warming rate is not even half of what was predicted.”
[SEPP Comment: Yet, the assumptions and the estimates remain the same.]
Model Issues
Climate-Modeling Illusions Not Based on Reality
By Jay Lehr, American Thinker, Dec 7, 2018
New University Of Exeter Study Finds Climate Models Skewed, Overhype CO2 …”Uncertainties Rigorously Concealed”!
University of Exeter: Role of natural climate factors is underestimated
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (German text translated/edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Dec 1, 2018
Scientists: ‘Falsified’ Climate Models ‘Do Not Employ Known Physics Fully’…‘Don’t Agree With Reality’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 6, 2018
Measurement Issues — Surface
It is Darkest Before the Dawn, But When are Surface Air Temperatures the Lowest
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Dec 4, 2018
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/12/it-is-darkest-before-dawn-but-when-are.html
Japan Says ‘Sayōnara’ To Warming… Unadjusted Data Show No Signs Of Any Significant Warming At All
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 4, 2018
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for November, 2018: +0.28 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Dec 3, 2018
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/12/uah-global-temperature-update-for-november-2018-0-28-deg-c/
Global Temperature Report: November 2018 Map and Graph
By Staff Writers, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama in Huntsville
https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/
Changing Weather
Excess winter deaths in England and Wales highest since 1976
By Staff Writers, ICECAP, Dec 4, 2018
Additional links.
Hurricane History Phony Myth
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Dec 4, 2018
http://ddears.com/2018/12/04/hurricane-history-phony-myth/
Changing Seas
The clever ruse of rising sea levels
Alarmists try to frighten people, and stampede them into terrible energy decisions
By Jay Lehr and Tom Harris, WUWT, Dec 6, 218
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/06/the-clever-ruse-of-rising-sea-levels/
How Good Are the UK’s Predictions for Sea Level Rise?
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, Dec 5, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/hitting-a-barn-door/
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Greenland Ice Sheet Sixth Highest on Record
By Staff Writers, DMI, Via GWPF, Dec 7, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/greenland-ice-sheet-sixth-highest-on-record/
Polar Portal Season Report 2018
By Staff Writers, IS-OG Klimaovervagning, DMI,
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/user_upload/polarportal-saesonrapport-2018-EN.pdf
[SEPP Comment: The Greenland ice melt is contradicting the modelers at NOAA and elsewhere claiming increases in sea level rise will become exponential.]
Arctic Sea Ice’s Rapid Growth In November
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 5, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/12/05/arctic-sea-ices-rapid-growth-in-november/
“Unsurprisingly, sea ice extent grew during these years [prior to satellite observations], which were known in Iceland as ‘The Sea Ice Years’. The cold climate then played havoc with Iceland’s fishing and agriculture.”
Canadian polar bears still not threatened with extinction says conservation committee
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Dec 3, 2018
Lowering Standards
WMO Reasoning behind Two Sets of “Normals” a.k.a. Two Periods of Base Years for Anomalies
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Dec 3, 2018
BBC’s Latest Heatwave Lies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 7, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/12/07/bbcs-latest-heatwave-lies/#more-36693
“It is cold, wet summers that farmers really fear.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Study: 2018 to be fourth-hottest year on record
By Avery Anapol, The Hill, Dec 2, 2018
Link to report: WMO climate statement: past 4 years warmest on record
By Staff Writers, WMO, Nov 29, 2018
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-climate-statement-past-4-years-warmest-record
BBC’s Latest Propaganda For Katowice
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 29, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/11/29/bbcs-latest-propaganda-for-katowice/
Study: Trump plan to shrink national monuments could lead to rare bee species’ extinction
By Emily Birnbaum, The Hill, Dec 4, 2018
Link to paper: Reducing protected lands in a hotspot of bee biodiversity: bees of Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument
By Joseph S. Wilson, Matt Kelly, Olivia Messinger Carril, PeerJ, Dec 4, 2018
https://peerj.com/articles/6057/
From the Abstract: “A long-term, standardized study of the bees had been conducted from 2000–2003, revealing 660 species.” [Boldface added]
CBC hypes “bleak” Churchill polar bear fate with unsupported claims & falsehoods
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Dec 4, 2018
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Dr Shearman diagnoses men who walked on moon, Nobel Prize winners, as “Delusional”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 8, 2018
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Climate change: Where we are in seven charts and what you can do to help
By Nassos Stylianou, Clara Guibourg, Daniel Dunford and Lucy Rodgers, BBC, Dec 2, 2018
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46384067
[SEPP Comment: Great photoshop of a polar bear up to his neck in water!]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
UN Pact Doesn’t Define ‘Migrant’
A new agreement to ‘strengthen migrant rights’ doesn’t explain who qualifies.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Dec 3, 2018
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2018/12/03/un-pact-doesnt-define-migrant/
Non-Green Jobs
Coming Bloodbath – Electrification Of Automotive Power-Trains To Wipe Out 114,000 German Jobs, New Analysis Shows
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 7, 2018
Funding Issues
World Bank to Invest $200bn to Combat Climate Change
Sum available for 2021-25 represents doubling of current five-year plan
Fiona Harvey, The Guardian December 5, 2018
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/03/world-bank-invest-climate-change
[SEPP Comment: “Invest” or “squander”?]
Litigation Issues
Law Firm Pitching Climate Suits Sought to Evade Detection by Open Records
Questions remain as to whether conversations conformed to local lobbying laws
By Todd Shepherd, Washington Free Beacon, Dec 4, 2018
Fishermen Sue Big Oil For Its Role In Climate Change
By Alastair Bland, NPR, Dec 4, 2018
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
The Global Carbon Tax Revolt
Editorial, WSJ, Via GWPF, Dec 4, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/the-global-carbon-tax-revolt/
Panic Grips Elysee Palace as Carbon Tax Revolt Grows
By Staff Writers, The Times, Via GWPF, Dec 6, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/panic-grips-elysee-palace-as-carbon-tax-revolt-grows/
France’s Carbon Tax Riot
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Dec 7, 2018
http://ddears.com/2018/12/07/frances-carbon-tax-riots/
Carbon Tax Revolt Escalates as French Police Union Joins Yellow Vests
By Staff Writers, Sud-Quest, Via GWPF, Dec 6, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/carbon-tax-revolt-escalates-as-french-police-union-joins-yellow-vests/
“The police union has called for an unlimited strike in solidarity with the Yellow Vests movement.”
The vast social and political earthquake that started in France — first mass uprising against eco-elitism
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 6, 2018
France’s protesters are part of a global backlash against climate-change taxes
By Steven Mufson and James McAuley, Washington Post, Dec 4, 2018
Memo To Congress: French Riots Show Why U.S. Carbon Tax Should Be A Non-Starter
Editorial, IBD, Dec 4, 2018
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/french-riots-climate-eu-leftists/
Students, paramedics join France cost-of-living protests
‘Yellow vest’ movement that began Nov. 17 bringing together people from across political spectrum
By Staff Writers, CBC, Ca, Dec 3, 2018
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/france-yellow-vest-riots-1.4929968
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA to propose easing Obama water rule
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Dec 7, 2018
The Environmental Protection Agency is expected to propose changing the definition of “Waters of the U.S.” to erase federal protections on some waters. The change would cover wetlands not connected to larger waterways or riverbeds that only flow after rainfall, according to an EPA outline obtained by E&E News.
[SEPP Comment: could it be possible that a pile of wet leaves would no longer be classified as “Waters of the US?”]
Trump admin floats reduced protections for imperiled sage grouse
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Dec 6, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Probably the greatest “threats” to the grouse are fences. Shall we remove the threats?]
Energy Issues – Non-US
IEA Energy Projections
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 3, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/12/03/iea-energy-projections/
Link to report: World Energy Outlook
The gold standard of energy analysis
By Staff Writers, IEA, Dec 2018
[SEPP Comment: Homewood presents a clearer graph of Total Primary energy Consumption, 2015 v. 2040 than the IEA.]
Britain’s oldest coal plants called on to avoid running out of power as cold sets in
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 6, 2018
“We still nominally have 13 GW of coal fired capacity, but most of this is not viable without the capacity market payments, as plants are compelled to idle for most of the year.
“Which raises the question, how many coal plants will shutdown earlier than planned, and leave us short or power in future winters?”
Energy Issues – Australia
Jo Nova: How to Destroy a Perfectly Good Electricity Grid in Three Easy Steps
By Staff, GWPF TV, Dec 7, 2018
Rampant solar, wind growth: Australia increases unreliable energy by 50% in 2018. Wow.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 3, 2018
Renewable energy reduces power prices by more than cost of subsidies, study finds
By Liz Hobday, ABC, Dec 5, 2018 [H/t Energy Matters]
“The independent study, by the Victoria Energy Policy Centre, focused on the South Australian electricity market and confirmed households in the state have on average the highest electricity prices in the world.”
“Gas-fired power is pushing prices higher, while wind and solar are placing downward pressure on prices, the study found.”
[SEPP Comment: No link to study. “The study used computer modelling to crunch electricity price data from the past five years.” “It sampled wholesale market prices every half hour from 2013 to 2018 and calculated the factors that led to those prices.” Wind power can be cheaper, when it works! Doubt if the study included the cost of the “Black State.”]
Energy Issues — US
Construction of major electricity line from Quebec to New York City to start in 2020
By Cecilia Keating, Canada’s National Observer, Dec 6, 2018 [H/t Energy Matters]
EPA: No new coal plants likely to be built despite relaxed rule
By Timothy Cama, The Ill, Dec 16, 2018
“‘The modeling of the electricity sector EPA performed for this rule using the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) projects that, even under the emissions limits included in this proposal, new fossil fuel-fired capacity constructed through 2026 and the years following is expected to be natural gas capacity,’ the agency says in an economic impact analysis released with the proposed rule.”
[SEPP Comment: There have been significant improvements in coal-fired power plants. Does the EPA-IPM consider the changes?]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Palin Was Right: ‘Drill, Baby, Drill!’
By Daniel John Sobieski, American Thinker, Dec 1, 2018
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/12/palin_was_right_drill_baby_drill.html
“Obama assured us, ‘You know, we can’t just drill our way to lower gas prices,’”
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
USGS: Permian’s Wolfcamp is largest potential oil and gas resource ever assessed
By Jordan Blum, Houston Chronicle, Dec 6, 2018
Link to report: Assessment of undiscovered continuous oil and gas resources in the Wolfcamp Shale and Bone Spring Formation of the Delaware Basin, Permian Basin Province, New Mexico and Texas, 2018
By Gaswirth, et al, USGS, Dec 6, 2018
https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/fs20183073
U.S. Becomes Net Oil Exporter For First Time In 75 Years
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Dec 6, 2018 [H/t Energy Matters]
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Becomes-Net-Oil-Exporter-For-First-Time-In-75-Years.html
Link to data: Petroleum & Other Liquids
By Staff Writers, EIA, Dec 6, 2018
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WTTNTUS2&f=W
“In the week to November 30, however, the weekly U.S. net imports of crude oil and petroleum products were at minus 211,000 bpd—meaning that the U.S. was a net exporter of that amount, according to data from the EIA.”
Trump Just Achieved What Every President Since Nixon Promised: Energy Independence
Editorial, IBD, Dec 7, 2018
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/energy-independence-trump/
Return of King Coal?
Coal is still king in global power production
Despite efforts to tackle global warming, worldwide demand for coal was up one percent last year, mainly due to demand in Asia.
By Staff Writers, Press Trust, India, Nov 30, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world/coal-is-still-king-in-global-power-production-3239701.html
China’s unbridled export of coal power imperils climate goals
By Marlowe Hood, Phys.org, Dec 6, 2018 [H/t Energy Matters]
https://phys.org/news/2018-12-china-unbridled-export-coal-power_1.html
Nuclear Energy and Fears
France to retire 14 nuclear reactors while Japan restarts 5 of its reactors
Nuclear has struggled worldwide, while offshore wind could offset some retirements.
By Megan Guess, ARS Technica, Nov 29, 2018
“Correction: ‘Vapor’ in the caption was changed from ‘smoke.’” “Vapor rises from the cooling towers of the nuclear plant of Dampierre-en-Burly near Orleans, central France, on October 23, 2018.”
As climate change worsens, America faces nuclear closure
By Amy Harder, Axios, Dec 3, 2018
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
THE BIG PICTURE: Wind Turbine Trends
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag. Dec 2, 2018
https://www.powermag.com/the-big-picture-wind-turbine-trends/
[SEPP Comment: Giving trends of increasing size.]
Now even Green IEA warns Australia of the threat of “avalanche” of renewables
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 6, 2018
State officials pushing growth of wind power in New York
By Ellen Abbott, WRVO, Nov 29, 2018 [H/t RCE]
http://www.wrvo.org/post/state-officials-pushing-growth-wind-power-new-york
[SEPP Comment: Will it make the subways run on time?]
Offshore wind power, a fraudulent fiasco
By Roger Bezdek and Paul Driessen, Washington Times, Dec 2, 2018
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/dec/2/how-virginia-taxpayers-and-ratepayers-are-about-to/
[SEPP Comment: More on how politics can destroy the grid in Virginia.,]
German Wind Turbines Go Up In Flames, Or Simply Collapse, …Federal Government Refuses To Investigate
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 2, 2018
Climate Crusaders Weigh In On The Cost Of Energy From Renewables
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Dec 2, 2018
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2018-12-2-climate-crusaders-weigh-in
“This will require ‘creativity and innovation’ and will ‘present hurdles.’ OK, guys, thanks for weighing in!
“Let’s face it, these guys don’t have a clue. It’s a good thing that CO2 is not a real problem.”
Energy & Environmental Newsletter: December 3, 2018
By John Droz, Jr. Master Resource, Dec 3, 2018
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
‘Green’ aviation fuel: Death by regulation?
By Geoffrey Luck, Quadrant, Dec 2, 2018
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2018/12/green-aviation-fuel-death-by-regulation/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
‘Sun in a box’ would store renewable energy for the grid
By Jennifer Chu, Press Release, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dec 6, 2018 [H/t Energy Matters]
https://techxplore.com/news/2018-12-sun-renewable-energy-grid.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
The human and environmental cost of mining lithium and cobalt
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 3, 2018
“A hard-hitting documentary from the German public broadcaster, Deutsche Welle, about the human and environmental cost of mining lithium and cobalt:”
Electric car sales hit by high prices and bad batteries
By Graeme Paton, The Times, Via GWPF, Dec 3, 2018
It’s Time To End, Not Mend, Electric Vehicle Subsidies
By Jonathan Lesser, IBD, Dec 4, 2018
https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/ev-subsidies-taxpayers-electric-cars/
California Dreaming
California Becomes 1st State to Require Solar Panels on New Homes. Here’s How It Will Reduce Utility Costs
By Natasha Bach, Fortune, Dec 6, 2018
http://fortune.com/2018/12/06/california-solar-panels-new-homes/
[SEPP Comment: Except for the costs of making electricity reliable.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
Healthier Air
By Kathleen Hartnett White, Real Clear Energy, December 04, 2018
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2018/12/04/healthier_air_110366.html
“Here’s why that’s so remarkable: Air pollution fell while the economy grew by more than 260 percent, vehicle miles traveled rose by almost 200 percent, and population and energy consumption increased.”
NEA slams record number of excess winter deaths last winter as predictable, preventable and shameful
By Staff Writers, National Energy Action, Nov 30, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: No link to government report.]
Other Scientific News
Our New Weather Satellite is In Position
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Dec 2, 2018
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/12/our-new-weather-satellite-is-in-position.html
Discovery of single material that produces white light could boost efficiency of LED bulbs
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Dec 4, 2018
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/12/181204090336.htm
Link to paper: Efficient and stable emission of warm-white light from lead-free halide double perovskites
By Jiajun Luo, et al., Nature, Nov 22, 2018
Other News that May Be of Interest
Saddam Hussein’s Climate Experiment
By Bruce Thompson, American Thinker, Dec 7, 2018
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/12/saddam_husseins_climate_experiment.html
[SEPP Comment: Discusses the Fred Singer-Carl Sagan debate on Saddam Hussein causing a “nuclear winter.”]
Can academia be saved from the mob?
Anonymity is the only way to save free thinking from dictatorial campus views
By Debra Soh, UnHerd, Dec 4, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
https://unherd.com/2018/12/can-academia-be-saved-from-the-mob/?=sideshare
CU Researcher Raises Questions Surrounding Conflicts Of Interest In Climate Research
By Elena Connolly, Western Wire, Dec 6, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Enormous ‘energy kite’ promises a new way to harness wind power
By Denise Chow, NBC News Tech and Science News, Dec 5, 2018
Worst case scenario
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predicitons.org, Dec 4, 2018
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/10188
“The world is now firmly on course for the worst-case scenario in terms of climate change, with average global temperatures rising by up to 6C by the end of the century, leading scientists said yesterday.
“Such a rise – which would be much higher nearer the poles – would have cataclysmic and irreversible consequences for the Earth, making large parts of the planet uninhabitable and threatening the basis of human civilisation.
“Professor Le Quéré, of the University of East Anglia and the British Antarctic Survey, said that Copenhagen was the last chance of coming to a global agreement that would curb carbon-dioxide emissions on a time-course that would hopefully stabilise temperature rises to within the danger threshold.
“’The Copenhagen conference next month is in my opinion the last chance to stabilise climate at C above pre-industrial levels in a smooth and organised way,’ she said. Independent, 18 Nov 2009”
Greatest long term threat
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predicitons.org, Dec 4, 2018
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/10186
“Climate change is the ‘greatest long-term threat’ to achieving global equality, UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband has told the United Nations.
“Mr Miliband said although all countries were affected by climate change, the poorest people within the poorest countries would suffer the most. He called on the richest countries to take the greatest action to combat climate change.
“He made the comments in his first speech to the UN as foreign secretary. BBC News, 28 Sep 2007.” [Boldface added]
ARTICLES:
1. A Warming Climate Brings New Crops to Frigid Zones
Longer growing seasons help lead northern farmers to plow up forests for crops such as corn that were once hard to grow in chilly territories
By Jacob Bunge, WSJ, Nov 25, 2018
SUMMARY: As may be expected, the author discusses that forests in Canada are being converted to farm land, as growing seasons expand. What is very interesting is the following:
A decade ago, Monsanto’s fastest-growing corn needed about 80 days to mature for harvesting, said Dan Wright, who oversees Bayer’s Canadian corn and soybean research from Guelph, Ontario. Next year, he aims to begin selling corn that will mature in 70 days, targeting farmers in places like Saskatoon, Saskatchewan and Red Deer, Alberta. For corn and soybeans, the company’s two biggest crops by sales, he said, such areas represent the ‘edge opportunity.’”
Modern agriculture requires a shorter growing season than crops years ago. This is similar to what applies in Brazil, where crops are growing in regions long considered too hot for crops. The UN-IPCC and the USGCRP totally miss such changes in agriculture.
***************
2. What Works? Reason alone is not sufficient.
It’s easier to tell a story of good vs. evil than to understand the science.
By Holman Jenkins, WSJ, Dec 4, 2018
https://www.wsj.com/articles/press-is-the-enemy-of-climate-1543966906?mod=hp_opin_pos2
The journalist writes:
“There are lessons in the media’s psychiatric moment last week over the newly published U.S. National Climate Assessment.
“Let’s give the New York Times credit. It was braver than just about every other news organization when it said, in its lead sentence, the “damage will knock as much as 10 percent off the size of the American economy by century’s end.”
“I can’t figure out where the Times got this, but it’s the difference between, say, 2% and 1.86% annual growth over the next 82 years and happens to be about right. How does this justify the dire adjectives it was swathed in? It doesn’t. I suspect that’s why every other news report, including the Journal’s, relied on adjectives alone rather than giving numbers—because the numbers just aren’t that alarming.
“What does the National Climate Assessment actually say? In 2090 the U.S. will experience annual climate-related costs of $500 billion. Notice that $500 billion, to echo a widespread misinterpretation of the Times report, is not 10% even of today’s economy (it’s 2.5%). It’s 10% of 1971’s economy.”
Jenkins then discusses the supporting views of Stephen Koonin presented in last week’s TWTW and goes on:
“Weirder still, I saw not one news report that ventured to say what the expected temperature would be in 2090. Maybe that’s because doing so would reveal that these relatively bearable costs arise under a worst-case scenario for emissions, known as RCP 8.5, which would further undercut the media’s hysterical adjectives. This is a shame because all such studies, including the new U.S. assessment, show that the biggest threat to climate is a lack of prosperity.
“In fact, RCP 8.5 is a model of emissions under conditions of economic stagnation. Trade, technology, global wealth and global per capita income stagnate. Demographic transitions to slower population growth don’t occur. Fracking is essentially uninvented. Countries burn impossible amounts of coal because that’s the only resource they have access to.
“Notice how important these assumptions are. It’s a mouthful, but here’s what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says: “The second-to-lowest RCP” [with about half the emissions of RCP 8.5] is “consistent with a baseline scenario that assumes a global development that focuses on technological improvements and a shift to service industries but does not aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as a goal in itself” (emphasis added).
“That is, a fast-growing world is greener even if it’s not trying to cut carbon.
“Unfortunately the environmentalist left has only itself to blame for the developed world’s (not including the U.S.) wholesale flight in the wrong direction. In France, the target of the rioters may be a new fuel tax, implemented by the government as a gesture of climate virtue. But as every news account tells us, what really is bringing them into the streets is 30 years of slow growth and chronic joblessness caused by towering taxes and antibusiness regulation.
“Put aside scientific uncertainties, which we haven’t talked about. The clear lesson of last week’s U.S. government report and every other official assessment is that climate change is not the end of the world. We can handle the cost and we can also handle the cost of avoiding a portion of climate change through sensible tax policy. (It should not be necessary at this point to rehearse the case for a carbon tax that is simultaneously pro-growth and anti-carbon.)
“Unfortunately the U.S. media have become a positive hindrance to public understanding. Consider that systemization of banality known as Axios. Last week it told its presumably politically engaged readership that the way to “be smart” about climate change is to understand that ‘In climate science, one side is the scientific consensus, and the other is a small but vocal faction of people trying to fight it.’
“In other words, reduce everything to a binary question of believers vs. deniers, good guys vs. bad guys. Here’s the sad truth: This narrative is mostly an invention of journalists for their own convenience. It relieves them of having to understand a complicated subject.
“I’m not trying to be funny. Over the past 15 or 20 years, the climate beat has been handed over to reporter-activists who’ve decided that climate science is impenetrable but at least nobody ever got fired for exaggerating the risks of climate change.
“Their ignorant crisis-babble is why electorates everywhere now believe climate and prosperity are necessarily at odds. Every study, including the U.S. government’s latest, shows the opposite: Continued prosperity is essential to mitigating the risks of climate change.”
This is how the give and take, back and forth, of scientific discourse works.
1) RGHE theory says that the earth is 288 K – 255 K = 33 C warmer with an atmosphere. I say that the 15 C, 288 K global mean surface temperature is just a guesstimate (IPCC AR 5 glossary pg 1,455) and the 255 K is an unrelated S-B calculation for the average 240 W/m^2 OLR at ToA with 30% albedo. For 255 K to be the temperature of the earth w/o an atmosphere the 30% albedo must remain which is not possible. Without an atmosphere (or w/o GHGs) there would be no vegetation, no water, no clouds, no ice, no snow, no oceans and an albedo similar to the moon’s 0.14. Without an atmosphere and the 30% albedo the earth would receive 20% to 40% more kJ/h of solar energy for a temperature increase of 20 C to 30 C. I say that because the atmosphere and its albedo reflect away 30% of the ISR the atmosphere actually cools the earth compared to no atmosphere.
2) RGHE theory says the 333 W/m^2 up/down/”back” GHG LWIR energy loop is responsible for the 33 C warmer earth. I say the 333 W/m^2 loop appears out of thin air violating conservation of energy, is a 100% efficient perpetual loop violating thermodynamics and moves energy from the cold troposphere to the warmer surface without adding work which also violates thermodynamics. If this were possible there would be refrigerators without power cords. I haven’t seen any. You?
3) RGHE theory says the GHG loop is powered by 288 K, 396 W/m^2 ideal black body radiation upwelling from the surface. I say because of the contiguous media participating in non-radiative processes, i.e. the air and water molecules, conduction, convection and latent processes, such upwelling ideal BB radiation is a “what if” calculation and not real. And in the grand scientific tradition I have actually performed a modest experiment that demonstrates the non-radiative processes and that a surface can radiate ideal BB only with no contiguous participating media, i.e. a vacuum.
1 + 2 + 3 = 0 RGHE & 0 CO2 warming & 0 man-caused climate change.
Your turn.
References:
TFK_bams09 (16 C, 289 K, 396 W/m^2)
Experiments in the classical style:
https://principia-scientific.org/debunking-the-greenhouse-gas-theory-with-a-boiling-water-pot/
‘and b) there is nothing else to explain the warming.’
Indeed. It is an argumentum ad ignorantium that would get a freshman philosophy student in trouble. PhD scientists making the claim is an embarrassment.
The trick here is this radiated energy from the sun will heat the ocean but physical heat will not pass through the surface of the ocean due to a force called surface tension. AGW is impossible. Thats the answer to your problem.
“…heat will not pass through the surface of the ocean due to a force called surface tension.”
Well, that will be news in the land of physics!!
So it must really be hard for heat to go through glass.