The Week That Was: 2018-12-01 (December 1, 2018)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which is proof against all arguments and which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance – that principle is contempt prior to investigation.”— Herbert Spencer [H/t William Readdy]
Number of the Week: 42 Billion barrels
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Old Science v. New “Evidence Free Science”: SEPP Chairman emeritus Fred Sinter is “old school.” He does not make predictions until the facts are gathered, the evidence. Perhaps it was because he began his long professional career by using high altitude rockets to gather evidence about the atmosphere including measuring the energy spectrum of primary cosmic rays; the distribution of stratospheric ozone; the equatorial electrojet current flowing in the ionosphere and publishing the first studies on subatomic particles trapped in the Earth’s magnetic field: radiation belts, later discovered by James Van Allen.
Singer recognizes that evidence must be compiled before a solid hypothesis, a theory, is developed. The hypothesis must be tested frequently against all the appropriate evidence. If it fails any test, the hypothesis must be discarded or modified. Scientific knowledge is not easily gained, but slowly acquired by severe effort and testing. The atmosphere is a highly complex fluid, set into chaotic motion by uneven heating from the sun as the earth revolves daily in its annual elliptical orbit around the sun. We can only begin to understand it with systematic experimentation and testing.
His views are in sharp contrast with the views expressed in the second volume released by US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a two-part series on human-caused global warming called the “Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States.” A key statement in its summary neatly sums the attitude about scientific knowledge of the those who prepared the report:
“However, the assumption that current and future climate conditions will resemble the recent past is no longer valid.” Overview Chapter 1 p.1.
In short, scientific knowledge gained in the past no long applies. As stated in the quote of the week, this is the path to ignorance.
In an essay in the “Washington Times,” Singer makes two predictions, which are bold for him.
“I predict that the global warming pause of the last 40 years (‘hiatus’), the growing ‘gap’ between models and observed temperatures will continue to grow to the year 2100, and likely, beyond.
“I also predict that increases in global Sea Level Rise (SLR) will reach about 6 inches by 2100, and contrary to the U.N-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-2013), I expect there will be no discernible acceleration in this rate of rise.”
Singer bases the first prediction on his knowledge of the atmosphere and the fact that carbon dioxide has a minor influence on atmospheric temperatures, at most. If increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are not warming the atmosphere, they cannot be warming the surface, or the oceans. He bases the second prediction of sea level rise on observations of over the past centuries.
By contrast, the findings of the USGCRP report, which will be referenced below as the National Climate Assessment (NCA), are based on assumptions made in 1979 Chaney Report, during the Carter Administration, and never tested against hard evidence. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed various scenarios, story-lines, on what may happen with increasing greenhouse gases, but never bothered to test these story-lines against hard evidence – the warming of the bulk atmosphere, where the greenhouse gas effect occurs. To make its predictions / projections, the NCA uses the most extreme of the story-lines called RCP8.5. Singer is too old-school to believe in such fairytales. See Article # 1 for the entire essay and the links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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A Hard Test: As stated in last week’s TWTW, in the world market, central Brazil is the fastest growing competitor to the US Midwest in food stables such as maize (corn) and soybeans. Once considered unsuitable for farming, food production in central Brazil centered around 16 degrees South latitude, which passes through Brasilia. The climate is classified as humid tropical with dry winters. The climate in the Midwest is classified as humid warm to humid cold with hot to cool summers – hardly tropical.
Yet, the summary section on agriculture of the NCA states: “Increases in temperatures during the growing season in the Midwest are projected to be the largest contributing factor to declines in the productivity of U.S. agriculture.” As Paul Homewood discusses, the main report states:
“Projections of mid-century yields of commodity crops show declines of 5% to over 25% below extrapolated trends broadly across the region for corn (also known as maize) and more than 25% for soybeans in the southern half of the region, with possible increases in yield in the northern half of the region. Increases in growing-season temperature in the Midwest are projected to be the largest contributing factor to declines in the productivity of U.S. agriculture.
Which was translated by CNN to mean:
“Farmers will face extremely tough times. The quality and quantity of their crops will decline across the country due to higher temperatures, drought and flooding. In parts of the Midwest, farms will be able to produce less than 75% of the corn they produce today, and the southern part of the region could lose more than 25% of its soybean yield.”
It appears if the goal of the NCA was to create alarm, it succeeded. What the authors of the NCA and the CNN reports fail to realize is that farmers who grow food crops adjust the varieties of the plant to local conditions. Like humans for the past several hundred thousand years, they can adapt to climate change. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NCA
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No Climate Caused Economic Crash: The alarmist nature of the NCA excited many in the general media but the economic forecasts were taken apart in two separate efforts published in the “Wall Street Journal.” Holman Jenkins calculated that, assuming a 1.6% annual increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the next 72 years, the US would be three times as rich than it is today. Thus, a 10% reduction of GDP sometime in the future, as projected by the NCA, is insignificant. If the economy grows to $61 trillion by 2090, from an estimated $19.4 trillion in 2017, and the economy is reduced by the NCA estimate of $510 million, in 2090, the estimate is meaningless.
In a separate essay, Steven Koonin, who was undersecretary of energy for science during President Obama’s first term, makes similar calculations as Holman Jenkins and concludes that the “global warming” fear promoted by the NCA will not cause significant economic damage. It is far in the future when the economy should be far more prosperous and, if true, the country will have plenty of time to prepare.
These gentlemen have not fallen for economic tricks, such as those used by Nicholas Stern in promoting the disastrous UK Climate Change Act of 2008. See Article # 3 and links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Importance of Engineering the Grid: The electric grid can be called the lifeblood of modern civilization. It is truly a modern miracle that we can have heat, light, communications, etc., when needed or desired. Yet, it seems to be the goal of politicians and green zealots to tinker with what works well until it breaks, such as Black State of South Australia.
It is extremely difficult to explain to many people what a carefully engineered marvel the modern grid is and the importance of reliability in maintaining it. A report by the Institution of Engineers and Shipbuilders in Scotland (IESIS) titled “Engineering for Energy: A proposal for governance of the energy system” goes into the great complexity of the electrical system. In the UK, the grid is called the National Grid and was formed in 1926 by the Electricity (Supply) Act. Though formed differently, the US grid has similar issues.
A 2017 report by IESIS Past President Iain MacLeod entitled “To Engineer – Strategies for solving complex problems” summarizes what professional engineers try to avoid (and how they achieve successful outcomes) in situations of complex uncertainty. As an example, professional engineers designed a grid that:
“…brought down prices and improved reliability for all electricity customers. It also meant that it was no longer practical to build generators without assessing their effect on the system.” [Boldface in original.
The reports provide a good analogy that may be useful in discussing the complexity of the grid with politicians and others intending to make it green – engineering a modern, complex passenger airplane to make it safe.
“…the electricity system is dependent on computational technology for the achievement of its goals. In operational time-scales The National Grid Company carries out continuous on-line security assessments to ensure the system is compliant with the Operational Security Standards at all times and may constrain generation on or off to maintain network security and stability.
“Like the wings of an aircraft, the parts of an electricity system are interdependent. Making a change to one part can have important effects throughout the system. If these interactions are not considered when making system modifications, an electricity system can become unstable and fail.”
To a politician proposing adding unreliable wind and solar power to the grid, one could ask: “Would you propose adding unreliable engines to airplanes we fly? If not, why do you propose adding unreliable wind and solar to the grid – thereby jeopardizing our safety?” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Sea Level and Climate Change: Judith Curry has completed a report for her clients on sea levels and climate change. Though far more detailed and thorough in discussing the claims by the IPCC and NOAA, her conclusions are about the same as Fred Singer’s – no acceleration in recent decades. It appears that sections of NOAA are more influenced by political ideology than by evidence. See links under Changing Seas.
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Number of the Week: 42 Billion barrels. The EIA has announced its estimates of proven reserves for 2017 of the crude oil and lease condensate, a light liquid hydrocarbon, which normally goes into the crude oil stream after production – 42 Billion barrels.
“Stronger oil and natural gas prices combined with continuing development of shales and low permeability formations drove producers of crude oil and natural gas in the United States to report new all-time record levels of proved reserves for both fuels in 2017. Total U.S. oil reserves in 2017 exceeded a brief, one-year, 47-year-old record, highlighting the importance of crude oil development in shales and low permeability plays, mainly in the Southwest. The new record for natural gas extends a longer-term trend of development, mainly in shale plays in the Northeast. Both U.S. proved [sic] reserves of crude oil and natural gas are approximately double their levels from a decade ago. These new proved reserves records were established in 2017 despite production of crude oil at levels not seen since 1972 and record natural gas production.”
Clearly, the state-of-the-art models used by the Club of Rome and by the US federal government in the 1970s to predict the US would run out of these fuels by the end of the 20th century were wrong. The error illustrates that the assumptions and calculations used in mathematical models for long-term prediction need to be adjusted to changing findings and technology, something the IPCC and its followers have not done. See links under Questioning the Orthodoxy and Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, Draft Summary for Policymakers, NIPCC, Oct 3, 2018
Renowned Physicist Freeman Dyson: “Theories Of Climate Are Very Confused”…”Models Are Wrong”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 16, 2018
Holman Jenkins: Even If Alarmists Were Right, Global Warming Is Affordable
By Holman Jenkins, WSJ, Via GWPF, Nov 29, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/even-if-climate-catastrophists-were-right-global-warming-is-affordable/
Blackouts, deaths and civil unrest: warning over Scotland’s rush to go green
By Sandra Dick, The Herald, Via GWPF, Nov 30, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/blackouts-deaths-and-civil-unrest-warning-over-scotlands-rush-to-go-green/
Link to report: Engineering for Energy: A proposal for governance of the energy system
By Staff Writers, Institution of Engineers and Shipbuilders in Scotland (IESIS), 2018
http://www.iesis.org/efore/engforenergy.pdf
We need more heretics to question the new religion on tackling climate change
By Cormac Lucey, The Sunday Times, Via GWPF, Nov 24, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/we-need-more-heretics-to-question-the-new-religion-on-climate-change/
Challenging the Orthodoxy – NCA
Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Nov 24, 2018
https://judithcurry.com/2018/11/24/is-rcp8-5-an-impossible-scenario/#more-24485
The Fourth National Climate Assessment violates scientific Integrity, Government Report Is False
By Edwin Berry, ICECAP, Nov 27, 2018
US National Climate Assessment – Midwest
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 28, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/11/28/us-national-climate-assessment-midwest/
CNN: “In parts of the Midwest, farms will be able to produce less than 75% of the corn they produce today, and the southern part of the region could lose more than 25% of its soybean yield.”
US National Climate Assessment–Southeast
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 25, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/11/25/national-climate-assessment-southeast/
An Assessment of the 4th National Climate Assessment
By Andy May, WUWT, Nov 28, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/28/an-assessment-of-the-4th-national-climate-assessment/
‘Embarrassing’: Climate Expert Explains What’s Wrong with the White House’s New Climate Report
By Chris White, Daily Caller, Nov 24, 2018
https://dailycaller.com/2018/11/24/climate-change-donald-trump-report/
Assessing the Fourth “National Assessment” of Climate Change
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Nov 26, 2018
https://www.cato.org/blog/assessing-fourth-national-assessment-climate-change
Link to technical comments on the draft
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, No date
https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pat-michaels-national-climate-assessment.pdf
The media got it all wrong on the new US climate report
By Bjorn Lomborg, New York Post, Nov 28, 2018
https://nypost.com/2018/11/28/the-media-got-it-all-wrong-on-the-new-us-climate-report/
Latest Global Warming Lies from US Global Change Research Program
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Nov 27, 2018
New Study Highlights Inconvenient Data Omitted From ‘Alarming’ US Climate Report
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Nov 26, 2018
https://dailycaller.com/2018/11/26/climate-study-omits-hurricane-landfall-data
Opinion: Obama-Era Holdovers Issue Fake News Climate Report
By James Taylor, Daily Caller, Nov 28, 2018 [H/t ICECAP]
https://dailycaller.com/2018/11/28/obama-fake-climate/
Global Warming: Fake Science Again Serves Far-Left Political Agenda
Editorial, IBD, Nov 26, 2018
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/global-warming-fake-science-agenda/
The US National Climate Assessment Report They Did Not Want You To See!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 29, 2018
Global Warming Alarmism Meets a Blizzard of Reality
By Brian C. Joondeph, American Thinker, Nov 27, 2018
The Doomsday Cult
By Derek Hunter, Townhall, Nov 25, 2018
https://townhall.com/columnists/derekhunter/2018/11/25/the-doomsday-cult-n2536430
Defending the Orthodoxy
Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States
The National Climate Assessment (NCA) assesses the science of climate change and variability and its impacts across the United States, now and throughout this century.
By Multiple Writers, U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/
Five major takeaways from the federal climate change report
By Emily Birnbaum, The Hill, Nov 24, 2018
“But Gary Yohe, an economics professor and environmental studies professor who served on a National Academy of Sciences panel that reviewed the report, told The Hill that the climate will not ‘change back.’”
The 467 hazards of climate change
Review finds cumulative effect of multiple threats may overwhelm large-scale systems by the end of the century. Nick Carne reports.
By Nick carne, Cosmos, The Science of Everything, Nov 22, 2018
https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/the-467-hazards-of-climate-change
[SEPP Comment: The article has an ad for the magazine featuring Alien Intelligence?]
I was wrong on climate change. Why can’t other conservatives admit it, too?
By Max Boot, Washington Post, Nov 26, 2018
“I’ve owned up to the danger. Why haven’t other conservatives? They are captives, first and foremost, of the fossil fuel industry, which outspent green groups 10 to 1 in lobbying on climate change from 2000 to 2016. But they are also captives of their own rigid ideology. It is a tragedy for the entire planet that the United States’ governing party is impervious to science and reason.”
[SEPP Comment: After spending over $40 billion on “Climate Science”, the US government has produced no hard evidence that CO2 will cause significant global warming.]
Climate change will shrink US economy and kill thousands, government report warns
By Jen Christensen and Michael Nedelman, CNN, Nov 26, 2018
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/23/health/climate-change-report-bn/index.html
Climate change: Report says ‘cut lamb and beef’
By Roger Harrabin. BBC, Nov 15, 2018
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46214864#
Climate Change on the Menu
By Riccardo Valentini, Project Syndicate, Nov 30, 2018
“Riccardo Valentini, a professor of forest ecology at the University of Tuscia, won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize as a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”
Electrifying the World Is No Panacea for Global Warming, IEA Says
By Jeremy Hodges, Bloomberg, Nov 12, 2018
National Climate Assessment: Remember MIT’s ‘Club of Rome’ Report (1972 … 2018)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Nov 29, 2018
https://www.masterresource.org/national-climate-assessment-us/club-of-rome-redux/
OLIVER: Climate change alarmists seriously harm the economy
By Joe Oliver, Toronto Sun, Nov 26, 2018
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/oliver-climate-change-alarmists-seriously-harm-the-economy
Academic Journals: High Stakes, Few Safeguards
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Nov 28, 2018
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2018/11/28/academic-journals-high-stakes-few-safeguards/
Inuit, Western science far apart on polar bear issues
By Darrell Greer, Nunavut News, Nov 29, 2018 [H/t Susan Crockford]
https://nunavutnews.com/nunavut-news/inuit-western-science-far-apart-on-polar-bear-issues/
“And, when it comes to scientists making blanket statements about Inuit being wrong about this and wrong about that – excuse me but we’re (Inuit) up here because of our adaptability and we’ll continue to adapt to whatever comes toward us except for, maybe, a meteorite coming in or something like that.
“To me, that’s no more than racist comments being made by some people.”
In defence of coal
Australia’s green zealots are making life harder for the world’s poor.
By Nick Cater, Spiked, Nov 26, 2018
https://www.spiked-online.com/2018/11/26/in-defence-of-coal/
After Paris!
World Faces ‘Impossible’ Task Of Finding Agreement At Post-Paris Climate Talks
By Frank Jordans and Monika Scislowska, Talking Points Memo, Nov 28, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/world-news/paris-climate-deal-talks-impossible-task
Poland names coal companies partners for COP24 climate talks
By Staff Writers, AFP, Nov 27, 2018
https://www.france24.com/en/20181127-poland-names-coal-companies-partners-cop24-climate-talks
The Paris Climate Discord
Not in my wallet.
By Abe Greenwald, Commentary, Nov 27, 2018
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/the-paris-climate-discord/
US deals a small blow to Paris climate change agreement before key meeting
Country gets reference to financial obligations of developed country scrubbed from a critical UN report.
By Nitin Sethi, Business Standard, India, Nov 27, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
“The US has struck a small blow at the Paris Agreement days before the high-level annual climate change negotiations kick-off at Katowice, Poland. In a UN report on climate finance, it has forced the scrubbing of all explicit references to the responsibility of developed countries for providing funds and resources to the developing countries for tackling climate change.”
PREVIEW-Political divisions cloud Poland climate talks
By Nina Chestney, Reuters, Nov 27, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
Change in US Administrations
How the Trump Administration Flubbed the New National Climate Assessment
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Nov 30, 2018
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/4698
Sarah Sanders: Climate change report ‘not based on facts’
By Brett Samuels, The Hill, Nov 27, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Such as hard evidence that CO2 is the primary cause of climate change?]
Trump on climate change: ‘People like myself, we have very high levels of intelligence but we’re not necessarily such believers.
By Josh Dawsey, Philip Rucker, Brady Dennis and Chris Mooney, Washington Post, Nov 27, 2018 [H/t Cork Hayden]
“Meanwhile, asked Tuesday about the findings of the nearly 1,700-page climate report the administration released on Black Friday, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders echoed her boss.
“’We think that this is the most extreme version and it’s not based on facts,’ Sanders said of the National Climate Assessment. ‘It’s not data-driven. We’d like to see something that is more data-driven. It’s based on modeling, which is extremely hard to do when you’re talking about the climate. Again, our focus is on making sure we have the safest, cleanest air and water.’”
EPA chief criticizes climate report over ‘worst-case scenario’
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Nov 28, 2018
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Germany heads to COP24 without coal-exit plan
By Julian Wettengel, Euractiv, Nov 28, 2018 [H/t GWFP]
https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/germany-heads-to-cop24-without-coal-exit-plan/
Can Poland end its toxic relationship with coal?
Poland, host of the upcoming COP24 climate conference, has long had a love affair with coal. Can it say goodbye and commit to renewables?
By Irene Banos Ruiz, DW, Nov 26, 2018
https://www.dw.com/en/can-poland-end-its-toxic-relationship-with-coal/a-46356824
Brazil backs out of hosting UN climate meeting
By Chris Mills Rodrigo, The Hill, Nov 28, 2018
“’The image of Brazil is at risk,’ Carlos Rittl, executive secretary of the Brazilian Climate Observatory, told the Times. ‘Climate and the environment are the only issues where Brazil is a leader in global terms. We are not leaders in world trade, we are not leaders in a geopolitical sense on security issues. But on climate and environment we are leaders, and we are giving that up.’”
Ontario to scale back climate-change goals
By Shawn McCarthy and Laura Stone, The Globe and Mail, Canada, Nov 29, 2018
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ontario-to-scale-back-climate-change-goals/
Seeking a Common Ground
Something To Be Thankful For: Fire (AKA Fossil Fuels)
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 24, 2018
CAGW: a ‘snarl’ word?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Nov 26, 2018
https://judithcurry.com/2018/11/26/cagw-a-snarl-word/#more-24508
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Knowledge, Ignorance and Climate Change
By Dr. Tilak K. Doshi, WUWT, Nov 30, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/30/knowledge-ignorance-and-climate-change/
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
A Brachiopod’s Twelve-Decade Response to Ocean Acidification and Warming
Cross, E.L., Harper, E.M. and Peck, L.S. 2018. A 120-year record of resilience to environmental change in brachiopods. Global Change Biology 24: 2262-2271. Nov 29, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/nov/a15.php
“Writing as background for their work, Cross et al. (2018) point out important shortcomings of present-day ocean acidification experiments, noting that they ‘can still only predict responses from exposures of relative short durations, of months or even a few years, to environmentally unrealistic conditions.’ What is more, such short-term studies fail to account for what Cross et al. refer to as ‘the fundamental role played by seasonal phenotypic plasticity and genetic change across generations,’ thus ignoring the ‘acclimation and/or adaptation potential in organisms with short generation times.’ And without adequate knowledge of these processes ‘identified as most important to confer resistance,’ predictions of marine organism responses to the perceived threats of ocean acidification and warming must be recognized for what they are — half-baked estimations of a future that may well have little resemblance of reality.”
Six Centuries of River Runoff in the Yangtze River Basin
Li, J., Shao, X., Qin, N. and Li, Y. 2018. Runoff variations at the source of the Yangtze River over the past 639 years based on tree-ring data. Climate Research 75: 131-142. Nov 28, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/nov/a14.php
Elevated CO2 Does Not Alter Autumnal Leaf Abscission in Sugar Maple
Li, L., Manning, W.J. and Wang, X.K. 2018. Autumnal leaf abscission of sugar maple is not delayed by atmospheric CO2 enrichment. Photosynthetica 56: 1134-1139. Nov 26, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/nov/a13.php
Models v. Observations
MET Office: If at First You Don’t Succeed … Double Down
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, Nov 26, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/if-at-first-you-dont-succeed-double-down/
UKCP18–The Met Office’s New Junk Climate Projections
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 28, 2018
Model Issues
Examples of How and Why the Use of a “Climate Model Mean” and the Use of Anomalies Can Be Misleading
By Bob Tisdale, Nov 29, 2018
Measurement Issues — Surface
Canadian Temperature Trends and Patterns Back to 1888
By Ross McKitrick, His Blog, Nov 26, 2018
https://www.rossmckitrick.com/
Link to paper: Temperature Trends in Canada since 1888
By Ross Mckitrick, Nov 26, 2018
https://www.rossmckitrick.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/temp_report.pdf
Link to program used:
https://www.rossmckitrick.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/ctc.txt
Global Temperature Drops by 0.4°C in Three Years
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Nov 30, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/global-temperature-drops-by-0-4c-in-three-years/
Global Temperature Drops By 0.4°C In Three Years
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 30, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Added information to the above.]
The MET Office’s Baseline
By Andrew Montford, GWPF, Nov 27, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/the-met-offices-baseline/
[SEPP Comment: Is the MET Office cooking the temperature books?]
Changing Weather
New Paper: Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900–2017
By Roger Pielke Jr. His Blog, Nov 26, 2018
Link to paper: Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900–2017
By Weinkle, Landsea, Collins, Musulin, Crompton, Klotzbach & Pielke, Nature Sustainability, Nov 26, 2018
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-018-0165-2
[SEPP Comment: No trend!]
40-Year Meteorologist Says Recent Global Warming Due To Natural, Ocean-Cycle-Related Water Vapor, Not CO2
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 27, 2018
Forest Fires and Atmospheric CO2
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 27, 2018
http://ddears.com/2018/11/27/forest-fires-and-atmospheric-co2/
“1871 Oct. 8-14, Peshtigo, Wis: over 1,500 lives lost and 3.8 million acres burned in nation’s worst forest fire.”
The Rewetting of the Western U.S.
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Nov 30, 2018
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-rewetting-of-western-us.html
Record Cold Hits North America, Arctic Sea Ice Stable As Solar Activity Reaches Near 200-Year Low
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 24, 2018
Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts
By Judah Cohen, Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), Nov 26, 2018 [H/t Ron Clutz)
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
Strong Winds and an Atmospheric River Hit the Northwest
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Nov 26, 2018
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/11/strong-winds-and-atmospheric-river-hit.html
About 190 sea turtles found frozen near Cape Cod
By Aris Folley, The Hill, Nov 24, 2018
Changing Climate
New Treeline, Permafrost Evidence Strongly Affirms The Mid-Holocene Was 3°C Warmer Than Today
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 26, 2018
Earth’s polar regions communicate via oceanic ‘postcards,’ atmospheric ‘text messages’
Press Release, Oregon Sate U. EurekAlert, Nov 28, 2018 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-11/osu-epr112718.php
Link to paper: Abrupt Ice-age Shifts in Southern Westerly Winds and Antarctic Climate Forced from the North
By Christo Buizert, et al., Nature, Nov 28, 2018
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0727-5
Changing Seas
Special Report: Sea Level and Climate Change
By Judith Curry, Climate Forecast Applications Network, Nov 25, 2018
https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2018/11/special-report-sea-level-rise3.pdf
Sea level rise: what’s the worst case?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Nov 29, 2018
https://judithcurry.com/2018/11/29/sea-level-rise-whats-the-worst-case/#more-24529
Sea Level and Climate Change–Judith Curry
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 28, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/11/28/sea-level-and-climate-change-judith-curry/
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Arctic Breaks Ice Ceiling [11-Year average]
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Nov 27, 2018
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2018/11/27/arctic-breaks-ice-ceiling/
No extirpation looms for Svalbard polar bears: no pending catastrophe in Norway
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 29, 2018
[SEPP Comment: The bears are not recognizing political boundaries?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
BBC’s Latest Propaganda For Katowice
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 29, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/11/29/bbcs-latest-propaganda-for-katowice/
[SEPP Comment: Homewood exposes the great difference between the actual coverage of the surface by instruments and the pretended coverage generated by the World Metrological Organization (WHO), a parent of the UN IPCC. Extensive parts of Antarctica and the Sahara are classified as warming by the WHO, yet there are no actual surface instrument data supporting this claim.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Poll: Nearly two-thirds of Republicans now acknowledge climate change
By John Bowden, The Hill, Nov 29, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Climate has been changing for millions of years – No link to questions, etc.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
NYT: Climate Deniers are Depraved and Corrupt
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 27, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/27/nyt-climate-deniers-are-depraved-and-corrupt/
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Gove’s Climate Nonsense
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 26, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/11/26/goves-climate-nonsense/
“The Evidence All Around Us”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Pied Piper 2018: Australian students skip school for mass protest
By David Evans, Jo Nova’s Blog, Dec 1, 2018
http://joannenova.com.au/2018/12/pied-piper-2018-australian-students-skip-school-for-mass-protest/
Quebec youth launch climate lawsuit against the Canadian government
By Megan Darby, Climate Home News, Nov 27, 2018 [H/t Willie Soon]
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/11/27/quebec-youth-launch-climate-lawsuit-canadian-government/
[SEPP Comment: “Youth” – lack of maturity rather than age?]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Air Conditioning—Treating a Public Health Benefit As a Threat
By Ben Lieberman, CEI, Nov 29, 2018
https://cei.org/blog/air-conditioning%E2%80%94treating-public-health-benefit-threat
Questioning European Green
The Climate Change Act: Ten years of punishing the poor
By Harry Wilkinson, The Conservative Woman, Nov 30, 2018
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-climate-change-act-ten-years-of-punishing-the-poor/
Nigel Lawson Slams Greg Clark’s Energy Speech
Press Release, GWPF, Nov 28, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/nigel-lawson-slams-greg-clarks-energy-speech/
Gove’s Climate Nonsense
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 26, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/11/26/goves-climate-nonsense/
Funding Issues
U.S. Climate Resilience Tool Kit: Greenland Stays Frozen in 2100… Even Under RCP8.5
Guest DIY by David Middleton, WUWT, Nov 30, 2018
Link to GAO report: Analysis of Reported Federal Funding
By Staff Writers, GAO, May 30, 2018
https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-18-223
https://www.gao.gov/assets/700/691572.pdf
[SEPP Comment: The GAO report is inconsistent with data compiled from prior government reports. The prior reports and definitions will be carefully reviewed to discover sources of discrepancies. GRIP2 is roughly consistent with new chart by International Commission on Stratigraphy].
The Political Games Continue
Obama Official Helped Prepare Dire National Climate Assessment
By Valerie Richardson, The Washington Times, Nov 28, 2018 [H/t ICECAP]
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/28/andrew-light-obama-official-helped-prepare-dire-na/
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
French Carbon Tax Protests
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Nov 26, 2018
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2018/11/26/french-carbon-tax-protests/
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
DC lawmakers vote for 100 percent clean power by 2032
By Chris Mills Rodrigo, The Hill, Nov 27, 2018
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/418515-dc-lawmakers-vote-for-100-clean-electricity-by-2032
[SEPP Comment: Who will pay to make the power stable?]
Energy Issues – Non-US
How the Shale revolution Overturned the Green Energy Agenda
By Nick Butler, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Nov 26, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/how-the-shale-revolution-overturned-the-green-agenda/
“To understand what has been happening it is instructive to compare the new Outlook with that published 10 years ago. Hydrocarbons — oil, gas and coal — accounted for 81 per cent of total global energy supply in 2008. The figure today is still 81 per cent and, according to the 2018 Outlook, that will decline only marginally over the next 20 years to 74 per cent in 2040.”
Electricity Reform in Ontario: Getting Power Prices Down
By Ross McKitrick, Elmira Aliabari, Ashley Stedman, Fraser Institute, Oct 4, 2018
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/electricity-reform-in-ontario-getting-power-prices-down
Saudi energy minister goes to OPEC with a weak hand: Kemp
By John Kemp, Reuters, Nov 29, 2018 [H/t Energy Matters.]
“Saudi Arabia faces a familiar but uncomfortable choice: cut production to defend prices or allow prices to fall to protect market share.” – Energy Matters
Electricity tariffs have soared as much as 500% due to new pricing formula
Businesses question why Yucatán electricity costs are 83% higher than in Louisiana
By Staff Writers, Mexico News Daily, Nov 19, 2018
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/electricity-tariffs-have-soared-as-much-as-500/
Homeowners trapped by 25-year solar panel contracts
Householders who lease their roofs to power firms find it hard or costly to move home
By Anna Tims, The Guardian, Nov 25, 2018
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/nov/25/homeowners-trapped-solar-panels
Now Spain proposes to go 100% renewable
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Nov 28, 2018
http://euanmearns.com/now-spain-proposes-to-go-100-renewable/#more-22787
“In summary, Spain can’t transition to 100% renewable electricity without some economic means of storing its surplus wind and solar for re-use. Currently there is no technology other than pumped hydro capable of doing this, and Spain’s conventional and pumped hydro potential is nowhere near large enough to bridge the gap.”
[SEPP Comment: Will the greens allow converting a UNESCO biosphere reserve to pumped storage? The data from the utility shows the capacity factor of Solar PV in Spain to be 20.5%. In Sunny Spain?]
Energy Issues – Australia
Victoria votes for solar, batteries and climate action, as Labor wins in a landslide
By Sophie Vorrath, Renew Economy, Nov 26, 2018
Green is the new black: how renewables and storage will replace coal
By Lachlan Blackhall, Sydney Morning Herald, AU, Nov 29, 2018
“Lachlan Blackhall is entrepreneurial fellow and head, Battery Storage and Grid Integration Program, the Australian National University.”
[SEPP Comment: No estimate of the cost of storage or making wind and solar reliable.]
New Coal Boom Looms After Green Light for Adani Coal Mine
By Staff Writers, The Australian, Via GWPF, Nov 29, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/new-coal-boom-looms-after-green-light-for-adani-coal-mine/
Energy Issues — US
How Much Do The Climate Crusaders Plan To Increase Your Costs Of Electricity — Part IV
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 30, 2018
How Much Do The Climate Crusaders Plan To Increase Your Costs Of Electricity? — Part III
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 29, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Discusses some political issues, then uses the quick analysis by Roger Andrews discussed in last week’s TWTW.]
Offshore Energy Essential for US National Security, Economic Prosperity
By Jim Webb & Jim Nicholson, Real Clear Energy, Nov 28, 2018
Get your natural gas in Texas for 25 cents, if you can
By Scott DiSavino, Reuters, Nov 27, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Lack of pipelines to take away gas associated with oil development is creating a problem.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Public land drilling contributes a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions in US: report
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Nov 26, 2018
Link to report: Federal Lands Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sequestration in the United States: Estimates for 2005–14
By Staff Writers, USGS, 2018
https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2018/5131/sir20185131.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Has little to do with resurgence of the US oil and gas industries.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Year-end 2017
By Staff Writers, EIA, Nov 29, 2018
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/index.php
US oil, natural gas proved reserves shatter records in 2017: EIA
By Brian Scheid, Platts, Nov 29, 2018
A ‘Growing Number Of Scientists’ Indicate Earth’s Oil & Gas Supply Is Abiogenic, Unlimited…Renewable
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 29,2018
U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas Poised For ‘Biggest Year Ever’
By Jude Clemente, Forbes, Nov 23, 2018
Pemex adds 1B barrels of oil reserves in biggest onshore find in 25 years
By Renzo Pipoli, UPI, Nov 28, 2018
The Great Oil Crash of 2018: What’s really happening
By Matt Egan, CNN Business, Nov 23, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/21/investing/oil-prices-trump-saudi-arabia/index.html
Return of King Coal?
King Global Coal (NYT article parsed)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 28, 2018
https://www.masterresource.org/coal-international/king-coal-nyt-2018/
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Pro-Nuclear Activists Win Landslide Electoral Victory In Taiwan
By Michael Shellenberger, Forbes, Nov 24, 2018
Long-delayed Olkiluoto 3 nuclear reactor to go online in January 2020
The launch of Finland’s Olkiluoto 3 reactor has been postponed again. It is now to begin production in 2020, some 11 years behind schedule.
By Staff Writers Uutiset, Nov 29, 2018
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
When the Wind Doesn’t Blow
By John Hultquist, WUWT, Nov 25, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/11/25/when-the-wind-doesnt-blow/
[SEPP Comment; The Bonneville Power Administration is the largest hydropower project in the US. Their graphs are an excellent example of the failure of wind power. Using hydro and coal-fired turbines to balance the oscillations of wind power must greatly shorten the life-spans of the turbines.]
Recent studies show flaws of wind power
By The Oklahoman Editorial Board, NewsOK, Nov 25, 2018
https://newsok.com/article/5615884/recent-studies-show-flaws-of-wind-power
Homeowners trapped by 25-year solar panel contracts
Householders who lease their roofs to power firms find it hard or costly to move home
By Anna Tims, The Guardian, Nov 25, 2018
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/nov/25/homeowners-trapped-solar-panels
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
EPA increases 2019 mandate for fuel made from plant and animal waste
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Nov 30, 2018
Cellulosic Ethanol Falling Far Short Of The Hype
By Robert Rapier, Forbes, Feb 11, 2018
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Autonomous Automobiles Someday
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 30, 2018
http://ddears.com/2018/11/30/autonomous-automobiles-someday/
Carbon Schemes
Europe’s first bioenergy carbon capture and storage pilot now underway
By Jemima Owen-Jones, Gas World, Nov 27, 2018
UK’s first carbon capture and storage project ‘operational by mid 2020s’
By Kevin Keane, BBC, Nov 28, 2018
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-46358715
“The Acorn Project will capture about 200,000 tonnes of CO2 from the St Fergus Gas Terminal near Peterhead and transport it for storage to one of three depleted gas fields using existing pipelines.”
California Dreaming
Paradise regained? Experts call for European approach to US housing
By Staff Writers, AFP, Nov 21, 2018 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Health, Energy, and Climate
Give Thanks That We No Longer Live On The Precipice
By Paul Driessen, Townhall, Nov 24, 2018
Environmental Industry
Sierra Club joins Big Wind Bullies at Apex, Diminishing our Environment
By Mary Kay Barton, Master Resources, Nov 27, 2018
https://www.masterresource.org/sierra-club-environmental-pressure-groups/sierra-club-big-wind-apex/
Other Scientific News
Could an anti-global warming atmospheric spraying program really work?
By Staff Writers, Institute of Physics, Via Phys.org, Nov 22, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-anti-global-atmospheric.html#jCp
Link to paper: Stratospheric aerosol injection tactics and costs in the first 15 years of deployment
By Wake Smith and Gernot Wagner, Environmental Research Letters,, IOP, Nov 23, 2018
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d/meta
[SEPP Comment: If you don’t know the cause, you don’t have the cure.]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Civic Virtues and the Future of the Centre-Right
By Tony Abbott, Quadrant, Dec 1, 2018
https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2018/12/civic-virtues-and-the-future-of-the-centre-right/
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
How climate change could be causing miscarriages in Bangladesh
By Staff Writers, BBC, Nov 26, 2018 [H/t Willie Soon]
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
Windows closed
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Nov 30, 2018
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/5709
“Already, the window to prevent catastrophic climate change appears to be closing. Some governments are starting to redirect their attention away from climate change mitigation and towards staking their claims in a warming world.
“’Canada is spending $3 billion to build eight new patrol boats to reinforce its claim over the Arctic waterways. Denmark and Russia are starting to vie for control over the Lomonosov Ridge, where new sources of oil and natural gas could be accessed if the Arctic Circle becomes ice free—fossil fuels that will further exacerbate climate change. These actions assume that a warming world is here,’ said Erik Assadourian, Vital Signs Project Director. Worldwatch Institute, 31 Mar 2015”
Future of psychology profession assured!
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Nov 29, 2018
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/5741
“In America, 200 Million People Will Suffer ‘Psychological Distress’ From Climate Change.
“A report published by the National Wildlife Foundation finds that the majority of Americans can expect to suffer mental health problems as a result of global warming and warns that our mental health system is not equipped to handle it.
“’The interplay between the climate realities we likely face and the potential psychological fallout from them was the subject of a conference convened in Washington D.C., in March 2009,’ write Lise van Susteren, MD, and Kevin J. Doyle, JD, introducing their work. ‘A highly respected group of experts offered insights. Their thoughts, recommendations and supporting evidence are presented in this report.’ Gizmodo Australia, 30 Dec 2015”
ARTICLES:
1. Making climate predictions
By S. Fred Singer, The Washington Times, Nov 28, 2018
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/28/why-the-supreme-courts-2007-decision-labeling-carb/
The Chairman Emeritus of SEPP writes: “I have always been reluctant to make any predictions, ‘especially about the future;’ however, I want to make two exceptions.
“I predict that the global warming pause of the last 40 years (‘hiatus’), the growing ‘gap’ between models and observed temperatures will continue to grow to the year 2100, and likely, beyond.
“I also predict that increases in global Sea Level Rise (SLR) will reach about 6 inches by 2100, and contrary to the U.N-Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-2013), I expect there will be no discernible acceleration in this rate of rise.
“During the only sure climate warming, 1910-40, the Sea Level Rise increased steadily at 1-2mm/year, as measured by most tidal gauges, with respect to their local shorelines, which did not have enough time to rise or fall.
“But we know that water expands when heated. However, the Sea Level Rise did not accelerate during 1910-40.
“Something must be offsetting that expansion, which increases rapidly. I believe the offset comes from evaporation, into the atmosphere, with subsequent precipitation turning into ice over the Antarctic. (The area-ratio oceans/Antarctic is 58.)
“Following 1910-40, the climate cooled during 1945-75, according to our best data. Again, SLR does not react, but continues to rise at the same steady rate.
“This lack of Sea Level Rise acceleration proves that ocean temperature change does not affect SLR — and neither does the steady increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) — contrary to what former Vice President Al Gore and James Hansen, a retired NASA scientist, say. It means that human activity, such as burning fossil fuels, has negligible influence on Sea Level Rise.
“But if expansion is more or less canceled by evaporation, what then causes the rise in SLR? The slow average melting of glaciers and polar ice sheets, on a time-scale of millennia, because it is warmer now than during the recent ice age glaciation, more than 12,000 years ago.
“There is negligible human influence on Sea Level Rise. By 2100, we expect the sea level to rise, about half-a-foot — a long way from the Gore-Hansen estimate of a 20-foot-rise, inundating coastal cities.
“By most measures, a ‘warming pause’ has been ongoing for at least 40 years, despite rising CO2. What is the future of this ‘hiatus?’ There are at least three possibilities:
“1. The ‘gap’ between the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models, based on increasing carbon dioxide, and the observations could suddenly disappear — it could be just a statistical fluke (Tom Karl, 2005). This seemed a possibility more than a decade ago but becomes less likely as time goes on.
Atmospheric scientist Kevin Trenberth assumed the extra incoming energy is ‘hiding’ in the deep ocean and will eventually be released.
“2. The ‘gap’ is permanent and will increase over time. My belief is that this ‘gap’ has been ongoing, at least since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, about 200 years ago, and likely much before.
“The climate effect of carbon dioxide increases logarithmically, i.e. very slowly.
“Thus, over the course of 200 years, carbon dioxide had near-zero climate impact — a conclusion hard to swallow for the IPCC.
“3. The much larger climate effects of solar activity changes dominate climate change by carbon dioxide. It could be modulated also by climate oscillations, such as ‘PDO’ (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). But we don’t know how to predict such future changes or oscillations — except for the general observation they should average to zero over a century, or more.
“I will put my money on #3 — but I am not a betting man.
“Professor John Christy of the University of Alabama, Huntsville, has plotted the gap, over the past 40 years, using independent, but congruent, satellite and radiosonde data for observed atmospheric temperatures. He showed an increasing gap since 1978 with models.
“His graph illustrates the ‘gap’ between IPCC climate models, based only on increasing carbon dioxide, and observed atmospheric temperatures; presented by Mr. Christy at a 2015 congressional hearing, showing the relative unimportance of carbon dioxide as a climate driver.
“Carbon dioxide may be popular, but clearly, the ineffective 2007 U.S. Supreme Court decision, labeling carbon dioxide a pollutant, must be revisited.
“So why this emphasis on a small carbon dioxide effect? The answer may be both political and scientific.
“The political aspect is obvious: Politicians can control emissions of carbon dioxide from ‘evil’ electric power-plants by taxes or other regulation; politicians love control.
“The scientific reasons are more subtle: Scientific model-builders are attracted to carbon dioxide, because its climate effects, though tiny, can be calculated and allow construction of mathematical models, while the much larger effects of solar activity changes and climate oscillations are essentially unpredictable by existing theory.
***********************
2. How American Fracking Changes the World
Low energy prices enhance U.S. power at the expense of Moscow and Tehran.
By Walter Russell Mead, WSJ, Via GWPF, Nov 26, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/how-american-fracking-is-changing-the-world/
SUMMARY: The James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College writes:
“The most important news in world politics this month isn’t about diplomacy. Bigger than Brexit, more consequential than presidential tweetstorms, the American shale revolution is rapidly reshaping the global balance of power as energy prices plummet.
“Until recently, observers expected American energy production to reach a plateau. A lack of pipeline capacity was expected to constrain output in the Permian Basin through 2020. Instead, shippers found ways to use existing pipelines more efficiently, and new pipelines were constructed faster than expected. U.S. crude-oil production is expected to average 12.1 million barrels a day in 2019, 28% higher than in 2017. Surging production has roiled world energy markets.
“The biggest loser is Iran. Shale has been pummeling Tehran for some time. The economic benefits Iran hoped to gain from President Obama’s nuclear deal were largely offset by the sharp 2016 fall in the price of oil. Now the pesky Permian is blighting Iranian hopes again. Rising American output made it easier for the U.S. to slap tough sanctions on Iran without risking a sharp rise in world energy prices. Low prices also reduce Iran’s income from the oil it still manages to sell.
“The next biggest loser is Russia. Oil is a key revenue source for the Kremlin. But the shale boom doesn’t only pick Vladimir Putin’s pocket; it also attacks his foreign-policy strategy.
“Russia wants to control the world oil price and use that power to boost its diplomatic weight. Mr. Putin has two ways to influence the price of oil. The first is to increase geopolitical tensions. If threatening Ukraine or bombing Syria spooks traders and jacks up energy prices, Russia has a better hand in negotiations with Europe and the U.S.
“Mr. Putin’s second option is to cooperate with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on price fixing. Building a closer relationship with Saudi Arabia over their common interest in inflated oil prices might loosen the kingdom’s U.S. ties and generate lucrative commercial and arms deals for the Kremlin.
“Shale disrupts both approaches. With supplies relatively abundant, energy markets can shrug off geopolitical shocks. The surge of American oil and gas also reduces the benefits of OPEC-Russia cooperation for both sides. Russia and OPEC can raise prices by reducing output, but that makes new drilling projects more profitable for American frackers. Cutting prices to starve the competition also doesn’t work. Thanks to past pressure from OPEC and the innovation it forced on the industry, many wells in West Texas now break even at an oil price of $30 a barrel. That’s not a price Russia can accept.”
Mead then discusses the impacts of falling government incomes on the Gulf sheikhdoms and Venezuela and some possible relief for the French President and his carbon taxes. He then states:
“Shale power is not, however, an unalloyed good for the U.S. China’s energy-intensive manufacturing economy benefits substantially when energy prices fall. In a world with low prices, Beijing is in a better position to ride out a trade war. Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey also benefits both from low prices and the weakness of its Middle Eastern neighbors.
“Ever since the shale boom began, diplomats and politicians have underestimated its importance. The U.S. has regained the position it lost in 1973 as the world’s largest oil producer, which it will likely hold through at least the 2040s. The consequences for energy markets and world politics will be far-reaching. Roughnecks in the American Southwest are doing more than most foreign ministries to change the world.
“But the shale revolution isn’t only an energy revolution; it’s a technology revolution, enabled by advanced methods for oil prospecting and extraction. From the transistor to satellites, to the personal computer to the internet and now shale, it is America’s innovation—as much as its hard power and diplomacy—that shapes world politics.”
3. The Climate Won’t Crash the Economy
A worst-case scenario projects annual GDP growth will be slower by 0.05 percentage point.
By Steven Koonin, WSJ, Nov 26, 2018
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-climate-wont-crash-the-economy-1543276899
SUMMARY: As discussed above. Koonin questions the economic claims of the NCA then states:
“Experts know that worst-case climate projections show minimal impact on the overall economy.
Buried in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2014 report is a chart showing that a global temperature rise of 5 degrees Fahrenheit would have a global economic impact of about 3% in 2100—negligibly diminishing projected global growth over that period to 385% from 400%.
“If we take the new report’s estimates at face value, human-induced climate change isn’t an existential threat to the overall U.S. economy through the end of this century—or even a significant one. Changes in tax policy, regulation, trade and technology will have far greater consequences for Americans’ economic well-being.
“There are many reasons to be concerned about a changing climate, including disparate impact across industries and regions. But national economic catastrophe isn’t one of them. It should concern anyone who supports well-informed public and policy discussions that the report’s authors, reviewers and media coverage obscured such an important point.”
Excellent summary.
Thank you.
This is how the give and take, back and forth, of scientific discourse works.
1) RGHE theory says that the earth is 288 K – 255 K = 33 C warmer with an atmosphere. I say that the 15 C, 288 K global mean surface temperature is just a guesstimate (IPCC AR 5 glossary pg 1,455) and the 255 K is an unrelated S-B calculation for the average 240 W/m^2 OLR at ToA with 30% albedo. For 255 K to be the temperature of the earth w/o an atmosphere the 30% albedo must remain which is not possible. Without an atmosphere (or w/o GHGs) there would be no vegetation, no water, no clouds, no ice, no snow, no oceans and an albedo similar to the moon’s 0.14. I say that because the atmosphere and its albedo reflect away 30% of the 394 K ISR the atmosphere actually cools the earth compared to no atmosphere.
2) RGHE theory says the 333 W/m^2 up/down/”back” GHG LWIR energy loop is responsible for the 33 C warmer earth. I say the 333 W/m^2 loop appears out of thin air violating conservation of energy, is a 100% efficient perpetual loop violating thermodynamics and moves energy from the cold troposphere to the warmer surface without adding work which also violates thermodynamics. If this were possible there would be refrigerators without power cords. I haven’t seen any. You?
3) RGHE theory says the GHG loop is powered by 288 K, 396 W/m^2 ideal black body radiation upwelling from the surface. I say because of the contiguous media participating in non-radiative processes, i.e. the air and water molecules, conduction, convection and latent processes, such upwelling ideal BB radiation is a “what if” calculation and not real. And in the grand scientific tradition I have actually performed a modest experiment that demonstrates the non-radiative processes and that a surface can radiate ideal BB only with no contiguous participating media, i.e. a vacuum.
1 + 2 + 3 = 0 RGHE & 0 CO2 warming & 0 man-caused climate change.
Your turn.
Nick Shroeder :
“If this were possible there would be refrigerators without power cords. I haven’t seen any. You?”
I have seen propane gas refrigerators, but I’m only quibbling on an extraneous point to let you know I’ve read your comment.
Thank you for providing an argument for what I’ve speculated, that the 33C warmer earth claim is suspect. 33C resolves to almost 60F right? The claim is that the atmosphere is ‘trapping’ 60F of heat at all times?
I’ve mentioned in earlier comments that a few years ago, I pulled the hourly temperatures for a day in Denver and the temperature dropped 30F in a single hour. Am I to believe that each of those two temperature readings comply with an atmosphere that is continually trapping [33C | 60F] of heat? It doesn’t seem like any heat was ‘trapped’ at all.
I’ve seen a defender of the ’33C warmer earth claim’ refer to all of the climate models based on this claim as proof of its existence. And, since those climate models all employ the GHG theory, this proves that GHG’s exist and the 33C warmer claim is accurate. That’s circular reasoning to me.
Thomas,
Here’s a link for propane heated refrigerators. It’s an ammonia cycle perhaps similar to the redundant pair for the air conditioner on the International Space Station. In addition to the heat/work of the burning propane it’s going to need an electrical power cord for the condenser fan.
https://home.howstuffworks.com/refrigerator5.htm
I think a fundamental problem is that common wisdom believes outer space is cold, 3 K or 5 K, just above absolute zero. The reason ISS needs AC is, as noted by the HVAC engineer on NASA’s web site, the solar wind at 1,368 W/m^2 will, barring extenuating circumstances, i.e. albedo, heat stuff to 394 K, 121 C, 250 F.
Why space is hot not cold and you need an air conditioner – or two.
https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2001/ast21mar_1/
That’s why the earth without an atmosphere will no longer have water of any kind, no ice, no snow, no vegetation, no oceans and an albedo similar to the moon’s 0.14.
ISS AC
https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2001/ast21mar_1/
Planetary fact sheets
https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/planetfact.html
Earth w/o atmos ice ball -This claim by NOAA is simply and flat incorrect!!!!!! And the site hosts have been advised. Now they are no longer mistaken, but deceitful.
https://sos.noaa.gov/Education/script_docs/SCRIPTWhat-makes-Earth-habitable.pdf
“…WITHOUT ATMOSPHERE, EARTH WOULD BE -436oF AND OCEANS WOULD FREEZE…”
Your might correct the spelling of Fred’s last name early in the article where you spelled it “Sinter.”
Ditto re “Chaney” for “Charney” about 10 paragraphs lower down.
And,
USGCRP
Re: Global Sustainability
US, Other Countries to Partner for “Future Earth”, Jul 9, 2014
https://www.globalchange.gov/news/us-other-countries-partner-future-earth
“Future Earth” is an organization.
May 1, 2015
https://www.globalchange.gov/about/highlights/2016-Solutions-Oriented-Research-for-Global-Sustainability
Two Global Sustainability research “Hubs” were established in North America. One in Quebec and the other one in Colorado 2014 /2015.
For more information on the above Global Sustainability topic:
WMO, 2 July, 2014
http://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/future-earth-get-globally-distributed-secretariat
UNFCCC
RESOURCE / 17 FEB,2015
https://unfccc.int/news/future-earth-research-for-global-sustainability
Quebec Government, c.2015
Scroll down to: Future Earth
http://www.scientifique-en-chef.gouv.qc.ca/en/?s=Future+Earth