Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Biased: TWTW has been accused as being biased. It is biased against speculative ideas being used to justify far reaching government policy, particularly if the primary support of these ideas are complex mathematical models that have not been validated. Politicians and the public are often overwhelmed by such models even though the models may contain significant omissions and logical errors. Government policies based on speculative thinking can be harmful to the economy and to humans.
Over the past two weeks, TWTW discussed significant problems with the reports of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). Physicist Richard Lindzen brought up two: the climate system is unrealistically over-simplified and the global climate models fail to address critical issues regarding clouds and water vapor. Water vapor is by far the dominant greenhouse gas.
As linked in the last TWTW, scientists Jock Allison and Thomas Sheahen (Sheahen is Chairman of SEPP) discuss how IPCC’s failure to properly address water vapor results in overestimating the warming influence of trace greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide. Further, they assert that carbon dioxide (CO2) has a finite influence on temperatures as demonstrated in many laboratory tests showing the relationship between CO2 concentrations and temperatures is logarithmic. Increasing concentrations of CO2 after the beginning of the industrial period have little influence on temperatures, contrary to what the IPCC claims.
Global climate modelers have attempted to avoid the laboratory results by asserting various devices, such as the limited influence of CO2 will be greatly amplified by an increase in water vapor, which was claimed in the 1979 Charney Report. However, such an amplified warming cannot be identified in the physical record of atmospheric temperature trends. The net result is that all the models used by the IPCC greatly overestimate the greenhouse gas warming in the atmosphere, except one. The one exception is the model developed by the Institute of Numerical Mathematics in Moscow. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and the past two TWTWs.
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Erroneous Governmental Policies: The EPA and the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) requested comments on freezing changes in Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) and tailpipe carbon dioxide emissions standards for passenger cars and light trucks at levels proposed for the model year (MY) 2020. This freeze would cover model years 2021 through 2026. CAFE standards were first implemented in the Carter Administration, when many in Washington were convinced the world was about to run out of oil and the US out of natural gas. On line comments to EPA and NHTSA are limited to 5000 characters.
This was an opportunity to comment on two government policies that are not supported by current, physical evidence, to which Ken Haapala responded (in part):
“CAFÉ standards were conceived when US scientists and policy makers were operating under two erroneous concepts, both based on speculation supported by faulty mathematical models. These concepts instilled two fears, both of which are being demonstrated as false: 1) the world is about to run out of oil and natural gas, and 2) greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, are causing dangerous global warming.
“Speculation is an important part of advancing science. Without speculation science becomes stagnant. But speculation must be tested against all available relevant evidence (data) before it is accepted.
“Similarly, mathematically models are valuable scientific tools but must be constantly tested against all available, relevant data (evidence) for their use to be justified.
“Policies on CAFÉ standards that previously made sense under past concepts and fears no longer make sense because the underlying rationale no longer applies. We have data (hard evidence) that contradict the fear that the world is about to run out of oil and natural gas and data (hard evidence) that contradict the fear that carbon dioxide-caused global warming will be dangerous. The evidence for each, contradict the mathematical models supporting these fears.”
After a brief discussion of errors in oil and natural gas modeling, the comments continue with:
“Modern automobiles emit little in their exhaust, except water vapor and carbon dioxide, gases essential for life on the planet, as we know it. In the US, category pollutants are no longer an issue. Further, modern technology in hydraulic fracturing and directional drilling permit exploration and development of oil and gas resources long thought to exist but thought to be impossible to extract. These abundant resources include the vast US quantities in dense shale, and deep-water reserves in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere. There is no foreseeable danger of ‘running out’ of oi and gas.
“Following my predecessor, I have spent over 10 years exploring the fears that greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, are causing dangerous global warming. These fears are as misplaced as the fears that the world is about to run out of oil. Since, the 1860s scientists have speculated as to the extent that atmospheric gases cause the planet to be warmer (at night) than it would be otherwise. It wasn’t until the 1920s that research laboratories started creating systematic tests on the effectiveness of atmospheric gases to absorb radiant energy, both incoming (from the sun) and outgoing (from the earth to space in the form of infrared energy). By far, water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas, accounting for the earth being some 60ºF warmer that it would be otherwise. Water vapor is present in the atmosphere in varying concentrations ranging from 0.01% (polar regions) to 4% (tropical regions) of total atmospheric gases.
“By comparison, carbon dioxide is a bit player, quickly exhausted. Its concentration in the atmosphere is about 0.04%. Carbon dioxide quickly loses its effectiveness as a greenhouse gas. The effect is logarithmic, the first 20 units per million (0.002% of the atmosphere) has an appreciable effect on temperatures, the second 20 units considerably less (though the total effect increases), and so on. Even at pre-industrial levels (about 0.028% of the atmosphere), the effect of increasing carbon dioxide on temperatures is tiny.
“Strangely, the government entities reporting on the influences of greenhouse gases ignore water vapor and emphasize the bit player carbon dioxide. These entities rely on speculation in 1979 and 1981 reports published by the National Academy of Sciences. These reports speculated that the modest warming from carbon dioxide shown in laboratory experiments will be greatly amplified by water vapor or by a broadening of the energy absorption range of carbon dioxide. At the time there were no comprehensive measurements of atmospheric temperature trends to test this speculation.
“Today, we have almost 40 years of comprehensive atmospheric data showing that the rising temperature trends are very modest, and the components of the speculated amplification are not occurring. Nature is contradicting the US global climate models. Further, there has been no statistically significant rise in atmospheric temperatures for almost 20 years.
“There is no logical reason to ‘tighten’ CAFÉ standards because such ‘tightening’ will be costly and without any economic or health benefit. Using a predicted future warming from carbon dioxide to justify intensification of the CAFÉ standards is like claiming an intensification is necessary because the world is about to run out of oil and natural gas. Keep the MY 2020 standards until it becomes obvious they are not necessary.
All the comments can be viewed at https://www.regulations.gov/docketBrowser?rpp=25&so=DESC&sb=commentDueDate&po=0&dct=PS&D=EPA-HQ-OAR-2018-0283
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Quote of the Week“A philosopher should be a man willing to listen to every suggestion but determined to judge for himself. He should not be biased by appearances, have no favourite hypothesis, be of no school and in doctrine have no master …. Truth should be his primary object. If these qualities be added to industry, he may indeed hope to walk within the Veil of the temple of nature.” – Michael Faraday [H/t George Hacken]
Number of the Week: €424 million in ten years ($ 485 million at current conversion rates)
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Bureaucratic Science, Linear No Threshold Model: The lack of data supporting the Linear No Threshold (LNT) Model, commonly used by regulators such as the EPA, is becoming a major issue. Toxicologists have long used a dose-response model. To establish a toxic level for any substance requires experimentation, which bureaucratic officials try to avoid. The LNT model was developed by Hermann Muller, who received the 1946 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for his work on the biological effects of radiation. Muller asserted a small amount of radiation can be harmful, causing lasting mutations, cancer. This finding is apparently contradicted by experience which shows small amounts of radiation may be beneficial and those living in parts of the world, such as Iran, with relatively large amounts of natural radiation show no ill effects.
Patrick Michaels reports of a new paper by toxicologist Edward Calabrese who has been searching for the data supporting Muller’s early work on fruit flies. Muller claimed X-rays caused inheritable mutations in these insects and cited the work to support his claims of the LNT model for radiation. Calabrese reports “He [Mueller] made this gene mutation claim/interpretation in an article that discussed his findings but failed to include any data.” The entire conclusion by Calabrese bears quoting:
“This historical analysis suggests that Muller deliberately avoided peer-review on his most significant findings because he was extremely troubled by the insightful and serious criticism of Altenburg {Muller’s colleague], which suggested he had not produced gene mutations as he claimed. Nonetheless, Muller manipulated this situation (i.e., publishing a discussion within Science with no data, publishing a poorly written non-peer reviewed conference proceedings with no methods and materials, and no references) due to both the widespread euphoria over his claim of gene mutation and confidence that Altenburg would not publicly challenge him. This situation permitted Muller to achieve his goal to be the first to produce gene mutations while buying him time to later try to experimentally address Altenburg’s criticisms, and a possible way to avoid discovery of his questionable actions.”
Regulators such as the EPA have applied the LNT Model to stifle criticism of their regulations. One example pertains to asbestos, which is a generic term for several naturally occurring silicate minerals with different physical properties. Thanks to sloppy definitions, useful forms such as Chrysotile, used for building insulation and still mined in Canada, have “been linked” to causing cancer without hard, direct evidence. No doubt, Calabrese will be severely attacked for reporting the LNT Model is another hollow model, with no supporting hard evidence. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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More Subsidies Please: Energy expert Donn Dears provides some interesting calculations demonstrating the difference in energy efficiency between battery-powered electric vehicles (BEV) and vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE). He finds that the electric vehicles have better energy efficiency and should gradually replace gasoline vehicles, if his assumptions bear out, and if the both types are a comparable value for consumers. Comparable value requires that battery prices and charging times come down.
Interestingly, this week the CEO for General Motors called for a National Zero Emission Vehicle (NZEV) program. The rational went through the usual: new jobs, not needed in this economy; zero emissions, of questionable value; conserving energy; of questionable value; etc. What was not mentioned is the current federal-government subsidy program for electric vehicles in the form of up to $7500 in tax credits for purchasers. The program runs out when 200,000 vehicles are sold by each manufacturer. Is General Motors running out of room before it hits the cap? Also, GM’s CEO’s action indicates that GM may not be able to deliver an electric vehicle of comparable value to vehicle with an internal combustion engine. See links under Subsidies and Mandates Forever and Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles.
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New York State Litigation: The Attorney General of the State of New York has filed a complaint in New York State Court against Exxon, a corporation headquartered in Texas. TWTW has not carefully reviewed the entire document. Reports indicate that it is significantly different from prior litigation by New York City and other municipalities. Indeed, the opening paragraph indicates that it is different. It states:
“This case seeks redress for a longstanding fraudulent scheme by Exxon, one of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, to deceive investors and the investment community, including equity research analysts and underwriters of debt securities (together, “investors”), concerning the company’s management of the risks posed to its business by climate change regulation. Exxon provided false and misleading assurances that it is effectively managing the economic risks posed to its business by the increasingly stringent policies and regulations that it expects governments to adopt to address climate change. Instead of managing those risks in the manner it represented to investors, Exxon employed internal practices that were inconsistent with its representations, were undisclosed to investors, and exposed the company to greater risk from climate change regulation than investors were led to believe.”
So, Exxon reviews risks from several different perspectives, before it reports its assessment of risks to investors. Is it not the responsibility of management to give an honest assessment of risks? According to the complaint, instead, management must give any possible assessment such as the New York State government may be run by fanatics who have no concept of evidence, law, or risk? Politicians never say things they know are false, misleading, or contradicted by what some of their colleagues might do in the future? See links under Litigation Issues.
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PAGES2k: Steve McIntyre continues his exhaustive research finding serious errors in a “Global 2,000 Year Multiproxy Database” known as PAGES2k. The effort by multiple authors is an attempt to re-instate Mr. Mann’s “hockey-stick” graph showing little temperature variation until the industrial revolution, and the associated increase in CO2.
McIntyre’s current analysis is of the North American network which consists entirely of tree rings. These have significant problems, particularly with the use of Mr. Mann’s Stripbark Bristlecone Pines and other proxies which give a false hockeystick shape from whitish noise. Originally, the pines were studied to show increasing growth from CO2 enrichment.
Tim Ball has reported the existence of approximate 300-year records of the Hudson Bay Company, which show climate changing in much of North America. Yet, these records are conveniently ignored by PAGES2k in favor of tree ring data. See links under Climategate Continued.
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Number of the Week: €424 million in ten years ($ 485 million at current conversion rates). According to reports, an independent auditor has found: “The European Commission has spent more than €424 million (£375m) over the last decade on carbon capture and storage (CCS) but failed to commercially deploy the technology.” See link under Carbon Schemes.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Svalgaard paper: Reconstruction of 9000 years of Solar Activity
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 27, 2018
The fast approaching solar minimum and its potential impact on the upcoming winter season*
By Paul Dorian, Perspecta, Inc. Oct 22, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Explains high-altitude blocking.}
Atmospheric Radiation Increasing from Coast to Coast in the USA
By Tony Phillips, Space Weather.com, Oct 24, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
PAGES2K: North American Tree Ring Proxies
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Oct 24, 2018
https://climateaudit.org/2018/10/24/pages2k-north-american-tree-ring-proxies/
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, Draft Summary for Policymakers, NIPCC, Oct 3, 2018
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The truth about global warming
Video interview of Patrick Michaels by Mark Levin, Fox News, Oct 21, 2018 [H/t Cork Hayden]
https://video.foxnews.com/v/5851667173001/?#sp=show-clips
[SEPP Comment: The term, “The Truth”, is excessive; the presentation by Michaels is excellent. The globe is warming, somewhat; CO2 emissions may be responsible, somewhat; the globe is not in danger from CO2-caused warming; and, the only global climate model that describes the current warming in Moscow.]
Is Carbon Dioxide really a “Pollutant”? (HINT: NO!)
By Gordon Fulks, The Australian Climate Sceptics Blog, Oct 27, 2018
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2018/10/is-carbon-dioxide-really-pollutant-hint.html
The Harm from Bad Science (Part III: Climate Change)
By Paul Driesen, Master Resource, Oct 25, 2018
https://www.masterresource.org/debate-issues/bad-science-iii/
[SEPP Comment: Parts I and II discuss Pesticides and PM2.5, Mercury, and Beyond, respectively.]
Climate Book By Japanese Physics Professor: “The Globe Isn’t Warming Anymore”…IPCC “Scientifically Immoral”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 23, 2018
“Also prominently featured are charts by R. J. Donohue et al, Dr. Roy Spencer, and Dr. John Christy. Dr. Fukai writes: ‘An enormous amount of meteorological balloon data of great worth ignored by IPCC were employed in Christy’s 2015 graph.’”
Recent Hurricane Activity in Perspective
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Oct 26, 2018
https://www.cato.org/blog/recent-hurricane-activity-perspective
More From Ed Calabrese on Environmental Regulation
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Oct 22, 2018
https://www.cato.org/blog/more-ed-calabrese-environmental-regulation
Link to paper: Muller’s nobel prize research and peer review
By Edward Calabrese, Philosophy, Ethics, and Humanities in Medicine, 2018
https://peh-med.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13010-018-0066-z
“In fact, the data underlying what may have been the most important claim in the history of regulatory science, were never published in a peer-reviewed journal.”
Defending the Orthodoxy
New UN Shipping Rules to Boost Climate Change, Wipe 3% Off US GDP by 2020
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 25, 2018
Would you eat insects to save the planet from global warming?
More people would give up meat for edible bugs if they believed they were tasty and trendy
By Jessica Brown, Guardian, UK, Oct 15, 2018 [H/t Energy Matters]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
David Henderson, head of economics at the OECD who criticised ‘corporate responsibility’ and UN climate change projections – obituary
By Staff Writers, Telegraph, UK, Via GWPF, Oct 25, 2018
The “No-Growth” Prescription for Misery
By Bjørn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Oct 17, 2018
“A growing number of academics are claiming that economic growth must stop because the planet is crossing environmental boundaries, and inequality between humans is increasing. They are wrong on both counts, and their agenda is a recipe for keeping poor people poor.”
[SEPP Comment: The myth that the globe is at a “tipping point” is similar to the old myth that if one sails too far from the sight of land the ship will fall off the edge of the earth.]
Apocalypse Delayed
The IPCC report does not justify climate scaremongering.
By Ben Pile, Spiked, Oct 18, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.spiked-online.com/2018/10/18/apocalypse-delayed/
IPCC: Redefining ‘Global Warming’ at the 11th Hour
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Oct 22, 2018
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2018/10/22/ipcc-redefining-global-warming-at-the-11th-hour/
IPCC: Where Dictators Overrule Scientists
No matter how undemocratic, sparsely-populated, or terrorism-promoting a nation happens to be, a sentence written by scientists will not survive if that nation objects.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Oct 24, 2018
https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2018/10/24/ipcc-where-dictators-overrule-scientists/
Climate Change: Hysteria And Reality
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 22, 2018
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2018-10-22-climate-change-hysteria-and-reality
Why the weather doomsayers need to take a raincheck
By Paul Homewood, The Conservative Woman, Oct 26, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/why-the-weather-doomsayers-need-to-take-a-raincheck/
After Paris!
Trump ‘Fundamentally Changed’ the Politics of Global Warming Author Says
By Mitchael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Oct 24, 2018
https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/24/trump-politics-global-warming/
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Will Global Warming Destroy the World? Ask America’s Farmers.
By Chris J. Krisinger, American Thinker, Oct 26, 2018
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Germany’s great environmental failure
Not long ago, Germany was seen as a model of climate responsibility. But it will fail to reach its 2020 emissions targets. Is there a way to make industry greener?
By Silke Kersting and Klaus Stratmann, Handelsblatt, Oct 19, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/germany-environment-climate-failure-974059
Japan Will Defy Calls By the IPCC to Phase Out Coal by Mid Century
By Staff Writers, The Australian, Oct 20, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/japan-will-defy-calls-by-the-ipcc-to-phase-out-coal-by-mid-century/
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Ocean Acidification Enhances the Resilience of Marine Diatoms
Valenzuela, J.J., de Lomana, A.L.G., Lee, A., Armbrust, E.V., Orellana, M.V. and Baliga, N.S. 2018. Ocean acidification conditions increase resilience of marine diatoms. Nature Communications 9: 2328, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04742-3, Oct 26, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/oct/a16.php
“…the researchers conclude that, ‘under elevated CO2 conditions diatoms sustain relational resilience over a longer timeframe, demonstrating increased resilience to future acidified ocean conditions.’ And that is great news for the fate of the world’s food web, where diatoms account for approximately 40 percent of marine primary production.”
The Positive Response of a Permanent Grassland to Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment
Andresen, L.C., Yuan, N., Seibert, R., Moser, G., Kammann, C.I., Luterbacher, J., Erbs, M. and Müller, C. 2018. Biomass in a temperate European grassland through 17 years of elevated CO2. Global Change Biology 24: 3875-3885. Oct 25, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/oct/a15.php
The Interactive Effects of CO2 and Phosphorus Supply on Two Wheat Varieties
Pandey, R., Lal, M.K. and Vengavasi, K. 2018. Differential response of hexaploid and tetraploid wheat to interactive effects of elevated [CO2] and low phosphorus. Plant Cell Reports 37: 1231-1244. Oct 24, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/oct/a14.php
Ocean Acidification Elicits No Cellular Damage in Shark Juveniles
Lopes, A.R., Sampaio, E., Santos, C., Couto, A., Pegado, M.R., Diniz, M., Munday, P.L., Rummer, J.L. and Rosa, R. 2018. Absence of cellular damage in tropical newly hatched sharks (Chiloscyllium plagiosum) under ocean acidification conditions. Cell Stress and Chaperones 23: 837-846. Oct 22, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/oct/a13.php
Models v. Observations
Evolution of 21st Century Sea-level Rise Projections
By Andra J. Garner, Jeremy L. Weiss, Adam Parris, Robert E. Kopp, Radley M. Horton, Jonathan T. Overpeck, Benjamin P. Horton, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), Oct 18, 2018
https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.08145v1
[SEPP Comment: Forget measurements, we have models that can predict!]
New Report Shows UK Weather Is Not Getting More Extreme
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 23, 2018
Link to report: DEFRA VERSUS MET OFFICE: Fact-checking the state of the UK climate
By Paul Homewood, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2018/10/State-UK-Climate2018.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Comparing predictions of bad weather from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs with actual data from the MET Office.]
Changing Weather
Strong Tornadoes Less Common In US Now
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 23, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/10/23/strong-tornadoes-less-common-in-us-now/
[SEPP Comment: Includes interesting chart of severe tornadoes (F3+) from 1954 to date by Mark Perry.]
Scientists Find Western Pacific Cyclone Genesis HAS DECREASED Since 1977!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 21, 2018
The Winter Transition is Imminent
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Oct 20, 2018
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-winter-transition-is-imminent.html
Changing Seas
Rising Seas Will Swamp Homes, Says Harrabin
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 26, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/10/26/rising-seas-will-swamp-homes-says-harrabin/
Link to report: Managing the coast in a changing climate
By Staff Writers, Singed by Jim Hall, Committee on Climate Change, Oct 26, 2018
https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/managing-the-coast-in-a-changing-climate/
[SEPP Comment: Seeking the source for alarm from a 1-meter rise in sea level, will it take 714 years or 80 years?]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
The Future of Arctic Shipping
Russia’s Northern Sea Route gets more tanker traffic, but it remains a risky endeavor
By Yaryna Serkez, Renée Rigdon and Costas Paris, WSJ, Oct 24, 2018
https://www.wsj.com/graphics/the-future-of-arctic-shipping/?mod=article_inline?mod=hp_lead_pos8
Study: Swiss glaciers mostly melted before industrialization began
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Oct 22, 2018
https://motls.blogspot.com/2018/10/study-swiss-glaciers-mostly-melted.html
Link to paper: 19th century glacier retreat in the Alps preceded the emergence of industrial black carbon deposition on high-alpine glaciers
Michael Sigl et al., The Cryosphere, Oct 16, 2018
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3311/2018/tc-12-3311-2018-discussion.html
Human influence on melting glaciers pushed back decades
By Staff Writers, Swissinfo.ch, Oct 21, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
Evil Nature caused Swiss Glaciers to melt faster in 1870 (See solar and volcanic effects)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 23, 2018
New ice on Hudson Bay a week earlier than 2017: another early freeze-up ahead?
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 23, 2018
Observations: Polar Bears Continue To Thrive, Grow In Number, Shredding Forecasts Of Climate Doom
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 25, 2018
Lowering Standards
BBC Mislead Again About Wind Power
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 25, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/10/25/bbc-mislead-again-about-wind-power/
“What the BBC and its friends in the Green Party never point out is that investment in new onshore wind projects has dried up to virtually zero since subsidies were withdrawn. If it really was so cheap, why does it still need subsidising?”
GWPF Welcomes Investigation into BBC Impartiality
Press Release by Staff Writers, GWPF, Oct 26, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/gwpf-welcomes-investigation-into-bbc-impartiality/
ABC-Watch: Beyond fake headlines — 61% of company directors do not care about Climate Change
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 26, 2018
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Bloomberg, Peduto talk climate change fight in Pittsburgh
By Elizabeth Behrman, Pittsburg, Post Gazett, Oct 21, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Confusing the issue. Clean air regulations had nothing to do with climate change. Greenhouse gases were added by the Supreme Court in a questionable decision.]
Puerto Rico moves to make island run on completely green energy by 2050
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Oct 25, 2018
[SEPP Comment: According to a plan under consideration.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Syria War Has Little To Do With Manmade Climate Change, Recent Publications Show
Climate change as the main cause of the Syria War remains unconfirmed
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (German text translated/ edited by P Gosselin), No tricks Zone, Oct 20, 2018
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
McKibben, Mea Culpas, and Mendaciousness
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 22, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/22/mckibben-mea-culpas-and-mendaciousness/
[SEPP Comment: The charge was social media abuse?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Environmental groups shift strategies to win support for candidates in midterms
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Oct 26, 2018
[SEPP Comment: The article is accompanied by photo of black smoke coming from unidentified chimneys.]
Lesley Riddoch: Why Fake News is harming the Arctic
By Lesley Riddoch, The Scotsman, Oct 22, 2018
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/lesley-riddoch-why-fake-news-is-harming-the-arctic-1-4818036
Questioning European Green
Angela Merkel aims to ward off diesel car ban in Germany
Angela Merkel has pledged to introduce legislation to stop “disproportionate” bans on diesel cars. The chancellor was speaking ahead of the state election in Hesse, where her CDU is desperate for a good showing.
By Staff Writers, Deutsche Welle (DW), Oct 22, 2018, [H/t GWPF]
https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-aims-to-ward-off-diesel-car-ban-in-germany/a-45978487
Environmental Idealism in Handling Plastic Waste Ignores Economics and Leads to Growing Ocean Pollution
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Oct 26, 2018
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/4653
Link to report: SAVE THE OCEANS: Stop recycling plastic
By Mikko Paunio, GWPF, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2018/06/Save-the-oceans.pdf
EU Waste-Dumping Behind the Marine Plastic Crisis
By Kathy Gyngell, The Conservative Woman, Oct 23, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/eu-waste-dumping-behind-the-marine-plastic-crisis/
Link to brief video.
Mr Procter Goes To Drax
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 25, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/10/25/mr-procter-goes-to-drax/
[SEPP Comment: A letter from a citizen to the politician states: “I hope they explained the full picture. They receive £800m/year in subsidies. The cost of green subsidies is £317 per household in 2014; £584 in 2020; £815 in 2030 and England has one of the highest energy costs in the World. High energy costs causes loss of jobs
“The pellets are supplied from forests in the US and transported 3500 miles to the UK. The net result is that this process puts out more CO2 than coal fired plants.”]
Litigation Issues
Collusions ahoy! Law enforcement for rent…because climate
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 24, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/24/collusions-ahoy-law-enforcement-for-rent-because-climate/
Video
Climate ‘fraud’ allegations hit ExxonMobil
By Staff Writers, Oil and Gas Journal, Oct 25, 2018
https://www.ogj.com/articles/2018/10/climate-fraud-allegations-hit-exxonmobil.html
Link to Summons: People of the State of New York, v. Exxon Mobil Corporation
By Barbara Underwood, et al. Oct 24, 2018
https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/summons_and_complaint_0.pdf
The Energy 202: Why New York’s new climate lawsuit against ExxonMobil is different
By Dino Grandoni, Washington Post, Oct 25, 2018 [H/t Cork Hayden]
New York Sues Exxon for Deceiving Investors on Climate Change
By Erik Larson, Bloomberg, Oct 24, 2018
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Canada’s carbon levies hit four provinces
By Staff Writers, Oil and Gas Journal, Oct 24, 2018
https://www.ogj.com/articles/2018/10/canada-s-carbon-levies-hit-four-provinces.html
[SEPP Comment: The provinces are free to do what the central government wants.]
Cut in UK carbon tax ‘would boost coal-fired output by 12 TWh/year’
By Henry Edwardes Evans, S&P Global, Oct 22, 2018
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
China to speed up efforts to cut solar, wind subsidies: draft guidelines
By David Stanway, Reuters, Sep 17, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
General Motors CEO: We call for federal electric and zero-emission vehicle policies
By Mary Barra, CEO of GM, USA Today, Oct 26, 2018
“We need further government and industry cooperation here in the U.S. It’s simple: America has the opportunity to lead. Now is the time.”
GM Surrenders To The Green Lobby — Calls On Feds To Mandate Electric Cars
Editorial, IBD, Oct 26, 2018
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/gm-electric-cars-mandate/
Energy Issues – Non-US
Every Big Bit Helps
Guest post by “Geo,” Energy Matters, Oct, 25, 2018
http://euanmearns.com/every-big-bit-helps/#more-22657
“The post describes how new supercritical CO2 Brayton Cycle turbines may revolutionise the efficiency of electricity generation.”
Link to pilot project: Supercritical Transformational Electric Power Plant (STEP)
By Staff Writers, Southwest Research Institute, Accessed Oct 27, 2018
https://www.swri.org/supercritical-transformational-electric-power-pilot-plant
EU negotiators agree ‘dynamic pricing’ of electricity
By Frédéric Simon, EURACTIV.com, Oct 24, 2018
“Energy companies with more than 200,000 clients will be obliged to provide households with at least one offer comprising dynamic price contracts, under an EU-level agreement reached behind closed doors last week, EURACTIV.com has learned.” [Boldface Added]
[SEPP Comment: As transparent as the wind is reliable.]
In Win for Trump, Merkel Changes Course on U.S. Gas Imports
Editorial, WSJ, Via GWPF, Oct 22, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/in-win-for-trump-merkel-changes-course-on-u-s-gas-imports/
[SEPP Comment; According to the chart, Spain and Portugal are EU’s largest importers of US gas.]
Why so-called ‘earthquakes’ shouldn’t stop fracking in Lancashire
By Andrew Montford, the Spectator, UK, Oct 24, 2018
Energy Issues — US
America’s Electric Grid Is a Matter of National Security
America must jump over regulatory hurdles so that it can strengthen its electric grid.
By Kelly Ayotte and Charles Hernick, National Interest, Oct 17, 2018
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/americas-electric-grid-matter-national-security-33696
“The vast majority of power failures that happen during storms occur because transmission lines or substations get damaged — not because fuel runs out. Above-ground lines, vulnerable to wind, rain and hail, can even fail during a thunderstorm, let alone a hurricane.”
Hurricane Florence crippled electricity and coal — solar and wind were back the next day
By Irina Ivanova, Money Watch, Sep 25, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Interesting views of the failures of traditional generation during the storm. Wind and Solar are more resilient that coal? Did coal-fired power plants reach a tipping point?]
Editorial: Gas pipeline limits create potential crisis
Editorial, Boston Heald, Oct 21, 2018
Washington’s Control of Energy
ConocoPhillips to begin work on $1 billion North Slope oil development this winter
By Elizabeth Harball, KTOO Media, Oct 25, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Up to 40,000 barrels per day, will help keep the Alaskan pipeline operating.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
U.S. Shale Has A Glaring Problem
By Nick Cunningham, Oil Price.com, Oct 21, 2018
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Has-A-Glaring-Problem.html
[SEPP Comment: Positive cash flows from some operations are questionable.]
Why U.S. Shale May Fall Short Of Expectations
By Nick Cunningham, Oil Price.com, Oct 24, 2018
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-US-Shale-May-Fall-Short-Of-Expectations.html
[SEPP Comment: Density of laterals from wells is an issue.
American Energy: Making Oil Shocks History
By Dan Byers, Real Clear Energy, Oct 22, 2018
[SEPP Comment: Remembering the past.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Belgian reactors shutdown a test run for nuclear-free future
By Daphne Psaledakis, Reuters, Oct 22, 2018
“It would require the construction of between six to eight gas-fired generators in Belgium to replace the nuclear capacity,” said Pierre Georges, lead EMEA utilities analyst at S&P Global.
“The problem is that as of today, no one is willing to build a gas power plant without a market design that would make them profitable.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind and solar ‘set to soar’ in Italy
GlobalData says non-hydro renewables capacity could hit 63GW by 2030 from 25GW currently
By Staff Writers, ReNews, Oct 25, 2018
https://renews.biz/48721/wind-and-solar-set-to-soar-in-italy/
“Installed wind and solar energy capacity in Italy will grow to 63GW in 2030 from about 35GW currently, squeezing out thermal generation as the dominant electricity source, according to GlobalData.”
[SEPP Comment: The dominant electricity source available, when nature permits!]
Alaska village’s new solar project set to be switched on
By Staff Writers, AP, Oct 25, 2018 [H/t Energy Matters]
https://www.kansascity.com/news/business/national-international/article220594630.html
“Power is 47 cents per kilowatt hour In Buckland, according to state data. Anchorage is 19 cents and the national average is 13 cents.
“The project is probably not going to slash electric prices overnight, but these projects could help protect villages against spikes in the prices of diesel and heating fuel, said Sonny Adams, the association’s director of energy.”
[SEPP Comment: The diesel power is heavily subsidized but with a low limit. Storage needed for solar is to come next year.]
The Coober Pedy “hybrid” renewables plant
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Oct 23, 2018
http://euanmearns.com/the-coober-pedy-hybrid-renewables-plant/#more-22648
“The Coober Pedy hybrid wind-solar-diesel plant, a clone of the King Island plant discussed in this recent post, achieved 68% renewables generation in its first year of operation and is expected to achieve around 70% for the rest of its operating life. According to Energy Developments (EnGen), the plant’s owner, this “demonstrates the credibility and reliability of renewable hybrid energy systems for off-grid communities and mine sites”. This is questionable. The $38.9 million* Coober Pedy plant is heavily subsidized, saves a negligible fraction of Australia’s CO2 emissions (at an unsubsidized cost of hundreds of dollars/ton CO2), will not lower electricity bills and requires that the existing diesel units be left in place as backup.”
Energy & Environmental Newsletter: October 22, 2018
By John Droz Jr. Master Resource, Oct 22, 2018
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Trump Offers Consumers No Relief From Misguided Ethanol Mandates
By Gerard Scimeca, Real Clear Energy, Oct 23, 2018
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
South Africa is investing in batteries to stop frustrating electricity blackouts
By Lynsey Chutel, Quartz, Oct 24, 2018
https://qz.com/africa/1435443/eskoms-battery-storage-project-a-move-to-renewable-energy/
“Currently, 70% of South Africa’s energy is coal-generated, while hydro-electric contributes 0.1% to the national grid, according to Energy Storage News. Solar and wind combined make up 0.1% of the national energy supply.”
“The project has the financial backing of the African Development Bank (who co-published the report) and the World Bank. The latter has been frustrated by how slow South Africa has been to implement its renewable energy plan, despite a more than $3 billion World Bank loan back in 2010 already, according to Reuters.”
[SEPP Comment: Word Bank burdening developing countries with debt to pay for electricity storage because the bank will not finance coal-fired power plants?]
Tesla Hikes Powerwall Prices to Better Reflect ‘Value’
The global price adjustment comes as Tesla struggles to keep up with Powerwall demand.
By Julia Pyper, GTM, Oct 12, 2018
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/tesla-hikes-powerwall-prices#gs.9Dvd=e4
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Future of Battery-Powered Vehicles
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 23, 2018
http://ddears.com/2018/10/23/future-of-battery-powered-vehicles/
Extensive Ramifications of Battery Electric Vehicles
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 26, 2018
http://ddears.com/2018/10/26/extensive-ramifications-of-battery-electric-vehicles/
Dyson chooses Singapore to build new electric car
By Alan Tovey, Telegraph, UK, Oct 23, 2018 [H/t Paul Homewood]
[Comments by Homewood: “I have been warning for some time now that a forced switch to electric cars will decimate the European car industry, and hand the advantage over to Asian car plants which currently cannot compete on quality.
“Some observers have tried to blame Dyson’s decision on Brexit, but this is drivel. Dyson have for some time outsourced most of their production overseas because it is cheaper. His decision to produce EVs in Singapore is a no brainer, given that the project is starting from scratch.”
Carbon Schemes
EU failing on commercial CCS deployment, say auditors
They found EU support for demonstration projects has ‘achieved little in terms of projects delivered and results achieved’
By Priyanka Shrestha, Energy Live News, Oct 23, 2018
https://www.energylivenews.com/2018/10/23/eu-failing-with-commercial-ccs-deployment-say-auditors/
The EU has spent nearly $500 million on technology to fight climate change—with little to show for it
By Akshat Rathi, Quartz, Oct 23, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
https://qz.com/1431655/the-eu-spent-e424-million-on-carbon-capture-with-little-to-show-for-it/
California Dreaming
Banning Polystyrene Won’t Help California’s Environment — But It Will Hurt Jobs, Economy
By Kerry Jackson, IBD, Oct 24, 2018
https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/polystyrene-ban-california-jobs-economy/
Health, Energy, and Climate
2 New Papers: World’s Heat-Related Deaths Are Declining…Cold Weather Is 20-42 Times More Deadly
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 22, 2018
“Heart-Jamming” Wind Turbines …New Medical Research Confirms Infrasound Negatively Impacts Heart Health!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 24, 2018
“The researchers conclude: ‘We are at the very beginning, but we can imagine that long-term impact of infrasound causes health problems. The silent noise of infrasound acts like a heart jammer.’”
[SEPP Comment: The term “heart-jamming” in the article exaggerates the findings.]
Oh Mann!
View From German Scientists On The U Of Arizona’s Coming Release Of The Hockey Stick Chart E-Mails
A Piece Of Climate Science History: Hockey Stick Emails Soon To Be Published
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (Text translated by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Oct 26, 2018
Environmental Industry
The Latest Target Of The Eco-Fundamentalists: Plastics
By Hank Campbell and Henry Miller, IBD, Oct 25, 2018
https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/plastics-activists-ban-science/
Jerry Brown joins Doomsday Clock group [as executive chairman]
By Brett Samuels, The Hill, Oct 25, 2018
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/413215-jerry-brown-joins-doomsday-clock-group
Other Scientific News
Explaining the Twin Paradox
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Sep 8, 2018
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/09/explaining_the_twin_paradox.html
The Genes |That Contribute to Human Intelligence and Personality
By Matt Ridley. His Blog, Oct 21, 2018
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-genes-of-human-behaviour/
Space Race Game Changer? Chinese Space Elevator Breakthrough
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 26, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/26/space-race-game-changer-chinese-space-elevator-breakthrough/
Link to article: China has strongest fibre that can haul 160 elephants – and a space elevator?
Scientists say just 1 cubic centimetre of the carbon nanotube material won’t break under the weight of more than 800 tonnes
Tsinghua University researchers are trying to get the fibre into mass production for use in military or other areas
By Stephen Chen, South China Morning Post, Oct 26, 2018
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Scientist seals himself in plastic tent for 3 days for “climate change” — aborts in 15 hours, foiled by clouds
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 27, 2018
“The BBC thought this badly planned, unscientific stunt failure was newsworthy and lauded him his 15 seconds of fame and advertising for the cause. Proving that any kind of measurable achievement is irrelevant. If it promotes the religion, anything will do.”
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Cob in an idler
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions, Oct 26, 2018
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/1939
“Public asked to report motorists who leave their cars idling. The local authorities involved – West Lothian, East Lothian, Midlothian and Falkirk – said they wanted to change attitudes and educate drivers on the issue of pollution and global warming.” Daily Telegraph (UK) 14 Dec 2009
**************
Poppies with more punch
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions, Oct 24, 2018
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/10117
“Greater concentrations of carbon dioxide in a warming world may have a drastic effect on the potency of opium poppies, according to a new study.
“While this increase might mean more morphine available for legal pharmaceutical uses, the painkiller is also the main ingredient in heroin.
“The current crop of poppies is twice as potent as those grown at carbon dioxide levels seen in 1950, says Lewis Ziska of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory.
“The net result, according to Ziska, is that climate change’s impacts on plants are likely to be chaotic and difficult to predict.
“For example, he says, ‘wheat may make more seeds, but we may have stronger poison ivy and poppies.’” ScienceLine, 3 Aug 2009
ARTICLES:
1. Peak Embarrassment in War on Oil
New York’s AG claims that Exxon Mobil has been lying to itself.
Editorial, WSJ, Oct 25, 2018
https://www.wsj.com/articles/peak-embarrassment-in-war-on-oil-1540509533?mod=hp_opin_pos1
Summary: The editorial states:
“Before resigning this year amid allegations of sexual abuse, former New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman spent nearly three years trying to harpoon his great white political whale— Exxon Mobil. His hunt failed to uncover malfeasance, but the AG’s office is suing Exxon anyway in a case that should be laughed out of court.
“Acting Attorney General Barbara Underwood alleged in a civil suit this week that Exxon defrauded shareholders, including those in the state workers’ pension fund, by failing to incorporate the projected costs of future climate regulation in its planning and investment decisions. The lawsuit says Exxon essentially kept two sets of books—one for public disclosures and another for internal purposes.
“Mr. Schneiderman initiated the roving investigation of Exxon’s business practices in November 2015. Exxon has since produced millions of pages of documents, but none have corroborated the political conspiracy theory that the oil and gas giant publicly downplayed the risks of climate change while preparing for them internally. No matter. The state AG’s office is now floating an alternative theory that is even more far-fetched.
“Lo, the AG says Exxon’s public disclosures projected a ‘proxy cost’ of climate regulation of $80 per ton of carbon in 2040 in developed countries and between $20 to $40 per ton in developing countries. Yet Exxon allegedly applied internally a “much lower price per ton to a small percentage of its GHG emissions, based on then-current regulations.” In other words, the AG claims Exxon was telling the truth to the public but lying to itself.
But as Exxon explained in a July motion challenging an AG subpoena, the two cost projections are used for distinct purposes. The ‘proxy costs’ are used to forecast global energy demand while ‘greenhouse gas costs’ projections are used internally to make particular investment decisions. Exxon has proprietary reasons for not publicly disclosing these internal estimates. And it must be accurate in cost projections if it wants its enormous and multiyear projects to earn a profit.
Each cost ‘is employed differently in Cash Flows’ Exxon added. ‘While Proxy Costs are indirectly reflected in line items associated with a commodity price, GHG Costs are incorporated, where appropriate, in various project economic metrics, including, but not limited to, operating expenses.’”
The editorial states the extensive efforts of Exxon to comply, then continues with:
“The reality is that nobody knows the future cost of carbon, and it will hinge as much on politics as on the evolving science and facts of climate change. President Trump sharply reduced the regulatory cost of carbon in the U.S. by rescinding Barack Obama’s Clean Power Rule, fuel-economy (Cafe) standards and methane regulations.
“Liberals claim oil will become obsolete as electric cars replace vehicles that run on fossil fuels. But these are the same people who said in 2006 that cellulosic ethanol would soon be an economic alternative to fossil fuels.
“The International Energy Agency reported this year that more oil investment is needed to keep up with increasing global demand: “Each year the world needs to replace 3 mb/d of supply lost from mature fields while also meeting robust demand growth. That is the equivalent of replacing one North Sea each year.”
“Ms. Underwood is charging Exxon under New York’s notorious Martin Act, which doesn’t require evidence of intent to prove fraud in civil cases. She may be hoping that Exxon agrees to settle and pay a fine so she can declare victory. Yet in this case there’s not even evidence of fraudulent conduct, much less intent. The only party guilty of misrepresentation in this lawsuit is the New York AG.”
2. Calculating life on Mars
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Sep 16, 2018
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/09/calculating_life_on_mars.html
SEPP Chairman emeritus writes:
“The New York Times recently (June 21, 2018) speculated about a Summer Solstice mystery: “Does the Earth’s Tilt [of its spin axis, currently 23.5 degrees] Hold the Secret to Life?” It encouraged me to write about a different kind of speculation, linking the super-rotation of the Earth’s core to the possibility of life on Mars.
“It should be understood that the chain of events described below involves much uncertainty. Nevertheless, each link in the chain seems plausible – even if I cannot describe it quantitatively. So here goes:
“1. Super-rotation of the core
Seismic data, taken over a period of several years (Zhang, et al., Science 2005), suggest that the (innermost, solid iron) core is rotating slightly faster than the rest of the Earth, at 0.3-0.5 degrees/yr. We don’t know if this super-rotation is constant or varies over time. The analysts did not suggest a cause, hence relatively little attention has been devoted to the phenomenon. Most scientists I talked to had never heard of it.
“2. Possible explanation of super-rotation
If I invert the question and ask, ‘Why is the Earth rotating slower than its core?,’ then the answer becomes clear to me, and I can even calculate and estimate its magnitude. The slowing down may be caused by tidal friction, produced by the Moon. This also means that the super-rotation has been going on for billions of years.
“3. Production of Earth’s magnetic field
We may assume that the differential rotation at the inner-core boundary with the (still liquid) outer core “winds up” the magnetic lines of force and thus produces and strengthens the geomagnetic field. I have calculated that the geomagnetic field has a decay time of only about 20,000 years, based on the likely conductivity of the iron core. Clearly, some kind of energy source is required to maintain the magnetic field. I suggest that the source is kinetic energy of rotation.
“(The time variation and reversal of the geomagnetic field has been worked out by Paul H. Roberts and Gary A. Glatzmaier on the basis of magneto-hydrodynamic circulation within the liquid part of the core. The inner core is solid and is thought to be growing in size
“4. The geomagnetic field establishes the magnetosphere
This is the standard explanation for the existence of the magnetosphere, the outermost layer of the Earth’s atmosphere, consisting mostly of ions of atomic hydrogen, protons, magnetically trapped and spiraling around the lines of force, produced as the Earth neutral exosphere is dissociated and ionized by solar UV radiation.
“The magnetosphere extends from ~300 km to about 10 Earth radii (Earth’s radius is ~6,400 km, 4,000 miles) and is really an extension of the Earth’s ionosphere, which occupies the region of ~80-300 km.
“5. The magnetosphere shields the Earth’s lower atmosphere from the direct impact of the “solar wind,” consisting mainly of high-speed protons and some heavier nuclei. The solar wind would help to ionize the atmosphere and also “sweep away” the outer portions – thus speeding up the “escape” of this outermost atmosphere, the exosphere, as it is labeled, where the density is so low that the mean free path between collisions becomes long enough that one can ignore collisions. The concept of temperature loses significance.
“6. We may assume that similar processes happened on Mars. I believe that its core was liquefied by tidal friction, but it has cooled and is no longer liquid. Mars no longer has a general magnetic field like the Earth. Its magnetosphere has now disappeared, but its shielding effect may have lasted long enough, I believe, to maintain an ocean on Mars’s surface for some time.
“7. Lundin and others have measured the removal of the Martian upper atmosphere by the sweeping action of the solar wind. The crucial question is this: did the Mars atmosphere and surface ocean exist long enough to permit the creation of life forms – as it did on Earth?
“I can calculate a ‘survival time’ for the ocean using available physical theory. However, this calculation is complicated by the greenhouse effect and possible freezing over of the ocean surface, which would stop its evaporation. In addition, covering up the ocean, or the remaining puddles of water, affects survival. But I don’t know how long it takes for living forms to come into being; I assume that this interval is fairly short.
“8. We can calculate all we want, but the answer will be available eventually if we discover life forms, either krypto-life or paleo-life, just below the Martian surface.
“Life may have been produced several times during the early history of Mars but then wiped out by solar UV radiation or solar wind, or by the ionization produced by cosmic rays – unless protected by a magnetic field – as on Earth – or by a protective covering of dust or soil. That is to say life may exist only below the Martian surface.
“Conclusion
There are many links in this chain of events, many of them quite speculative and hard for me to quantify. But the sequence of events seems plausible. I summarize the main positive results:
“1. An explanation of the observed super-rotation in terms of tidal friction, produced by a (captured) moon. The Mars moon has now disappeared, leaving behind two fragments, Phobos and Deimos.
“2. A theoretical construct that accounts for the maintenance of the geomagnetic field, with kinetic energy of Earth’s rotation as the energy source.
“3. A conceptual calculation of the survival time of an ocean on Earth, with the protection of the magnetosphere – and on Mars, where the magnetosphere survives only as long as the Mars moon and a general magnetic field exist.”
CAFE regulations were implemented in 1975 under President Ford. President Carter believed we were running out of oil, but the CAFE regulations were already in place when he became President.
Ken – your statement “As linked in the last TWTW, scientists Jock Allison and Thomas Sheahen (Sheahen is Chairman of SEPP) discuss how IPCC’s failure to properly address water vapor results in overestimating the warming influence of trace greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide.”
Atmospheric water vapor is not ‘human-induced’ so the IPCC’s ‘Role’ (see here: https://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization_history.shtml ) specifically allows them to ignore it. Likewise the sun, the planets and moons, cosmic rays, etc. etc.
We are being taken for a ride, but apparently most politicians cannot see this. Your Chairman should use plainer language to describe the way that the IPCC has defined its role to ensure a pre-determined (i.e. ‘CO2 is the world’s climate control knob’) outcome, regardless of mountains of evidence to the contrary. If we continue to allow them to get away with this semantic BS they will continue to undermine the western world’s economies, as they intend.
I wonder if a comprehensive investigation of the NY AG Office would find that office committing similar egregious errors by not either not telling the whole truth or not allowing the whole truth to be told during court cases over which they had legal council adjudication rights during the proceedings
$485 Million? That’s just one theft in the climate change collection to chase our tails for no result and no good reason. But it is reminiscent of the ever elusive goal of chasing better “education” with money. “Things are bad. Give us more money. Things are bad.” Rinse and repeat.
This story is by far the most important thing on WUWT since the last IPCC SPM release, probably more important than that.
If they have sorted the materials problems than it will truly change everything. It will have the impact of fusion power but with the added benefit of actually working. Within a decade!
It won’t just be power stations using them. Large energy users like the internet infrastructure will fit them to recapture waste heat.
LEDs, Fracking and now this? It’s like the 1900s again. If it works.