The fast approaching solar minimum and its potential impact on the upcoming winter season
By Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Overview
In the long term, the sun is the main driver of all weather and climate and multi-decadal trends in solar activity can have major impacts on oceanic and atmospheric temperatures. In addition, empirical observations have shown that the sun can have important ramifications on weather and climate on shorter time scales including those associated with the average solar cycle of around 11-years. For example, there is evidence that low solar activity during solar minimum years tend to be well-correlated with more frequent “high-latitude blocking” events compared to normal and this type of atmospheric phenomenon can play an important role in the winter season.
Discussion
Weather conditions and snowpack during the fall and winter seasons in cold air source regions such as Greenland and northeastern Canada can, in turn, have quite an impact on the conditions experienced in the eastern US. These particular regions of North America are where many cold air masses originate and the fact that Greenland, for example, has been particularly cold since late July is quite a bullish sign for the formation of deep, cold air masses. [By the way, the temperature at Summit Station, Greenland at 4 PM on Sunday was minus 38 degrees (F)].
It is not only important to monitor the potential for the formation of cold air masses in these particular regions, it is also important to determine if there will be a mechanism to bring the cold air masses southward from the northern latitudes into the mid-latitudes including the Mid-Atlantic region. “High-latitude blocking” is a phrase given to just such an atmospheric phenomenon that indeed can bring cold air masses into the eastern US from these cold air source regions and with the “block” in the atmosphere during these events, cold air can stick around for awhile which is often an important pre-requisite for accumulating snow in some places such as the big cities of the I-95 corridor. “High-latitude blocking” during the winter season is characterized by persistent high pressure in northern latitude areas such as Greenland, northeastern Canada, and Iceland. There is evidence that low solar activity during solar minimum years tend to be well-correlated with more frequent “high-latitude blocking” events compared to normal.
This plot shows the daily observations of the number of sunspots during the last four solar cycles back to 1 January 1977 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC). The thin blue line indicates the daily sunspot number, while the dark blue line indicates the running annual average. The current low sunspot activity is indicated by the arrow at the lower right of the plot. Last day shown: 30 Sep 2018. Data source: climate4you.com.
In terms of solar activity, we are now at the very end of the weakest solar cycle (#24) in more than a century and are rapidly approaching the next solar minimum – usually the least active time in a given solar cycle. In truth, there is a chance that we have already entered into the solar minimum phase which is not always known until “after-the-fact”. The last solar minimum that took place from 2007-to-2009 turned out to be the quietest period in at least a century and signs point to another deep solar minimum over the next couple of years.
The last time an inactive sun coincided with a moderate El Nino event – somewhat similar to expectations for this winter – was during the winter of 2009-2010 and the Mid-Atlantic region experienced quite a cold and snowy winter with, for example, Washington, DC experiencing their snowiest winter ever. Looking back to the preceding solar minimum which occurred in 1995-1996, there also was a “gangbuster” winter season in the I-95 corridor which included one of the biggest snowstorms ever on January 6-9, 1996.
Full analysis here at Perspecta Weather
Excellent! Shivering in the dark, the new exercise for idiot liberals. Meanwhile, here in Argentina a moderate El Nino means an excellent wine year. Think I will pour a glass and watch them shiver.
I’ll have an 18yo Macallan and watch the libs here in Massachusetts shiver for you!
Sip it. There’s an impending barley famine and Scotland will soon be making brandy instead of whisky.
what is up with Golden Promise and Maris Otter? Too cold in the North Atlantic maritime’s for barley or is it disease?
Drought! I live on Speyside
Let’s see how this weather model works out. Probably better than the IPCC’s climate models.
…that’s assuming an El Nino though…
CORRECT – They assume much of it based on models that do not incorporate the real climate drivers.
This cannot be correct, I heard that NOAA declared the the winter temperatures will be warmer this year in the eastern part of the US and they are never wrong
Yup – they can’t both be right.
Time for some good old fashioned Popperian deductive science.
A risky prediction – not even a projection.
The NOAA is calling for the west to be warm and the east to be near normal.
Joe Bastardi At Weatherbell is expecting cold southeast and warm northwest.
See https://www.weatherbell.com/late-september-winter-forecast for the snowfall forecast.
But the Old Farmers Almanac said…
Dr Patrick Michaels on Levin was excellent Last night
Thanks!
Excellent indeed. I recommend it for anyone who has the time.
Levin conducted a good interview, even when he stepped on the good doctor’s answers.
Rather than parameterizing, or fudging, I prefer the description “making shit up”.
I watched it as well. There was the message of human being’s CO2 emissions potentially causing problems. That really is still a unknown, uncertain and yet determined premise. It is called GHG theory for a reason.
CO2 just like every other air molecule and a residence time in the atmosphere.
Mark Levin did the best job he could but has no scientific training background.
The equatorial Pacific sky is blue and cloudless, more like LAN Nina than El Niño:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Cloudiness
Less equatorial cloud means more outgoing long wave radiative cooling of the Pacific.
Not all the pieces are in place for a real El Niño. I don’t think there will be one.
Less equatorial cloud does indeed mean more outgoing long wave radiation cooling, but it also means more incoming short wave radiation warming from the sun. But turning to look at it the other way – at cause rather than effect – cloud amount at the equator tends to relate to ocean surface temperature (warmer sea –> more cloud [see articles by Willis Eschenbach, or see Richard Lindzen’s Iris Effect]). So maybe the equatorial sea really is a bit cooler. Does that mean there won’t be an El Nino? I don’t think so. The outgoing radiation cools only from the surface, but some of the incoming radiation warms below the surface so it could still be setting up an El Nino. [I’m not saying it is, just that it might be].
A weak Modoki El Nino is all that I’ve seen anybody forecast, what qualifies as “real”?
A real El Niño is one that engages the Bjerknes feedback. Both the trade winds and Peruvian upwelling are fully interrupted. The equatorial Pacific warming is centred at the east equatorial Pacific, not central. And the El Niño is followed by a strong reactive La Niña which pumps warm water poleward. This real ENSO cycle steps up global temperatures by a measurable amount. The last one of these was 1999.
I comment here merely as an interested party who has deployed a mk1 eyeball to the plot of the last four SC. By this hopelessly inexpert means, I notice:
1. Twin peaks at maxima have evolved from first peak, to second peak dominance (SC24 shows a strongly dominant second peak); and
2. From each of the first three peaks (irrespective of which peak is dominant) to minimum is seven years
IF this pattern repeats, this would indicate SC24 rock bottom ca. half way (or so) through 2021. Now then, given where we are and how our star is currently performing, that would suggest really quite a low minimum, would it not?
Appearance of two peaks is due to the North and the South solar hemispheres’s maxima are slightly out of phase
http://sidc.oma.be/images/wnosuf.png
The phase shift runs in quasi-cycle with approx 100 year periodicity.
It appears that prolong falls in the global temperatures are associated with the shifts in the phase lag from one hemisphere to the other as shown in this link .
Thank you Vukevic, yet another thing that I didn’t know, about which I now know slightly less than I didn’t before!
“As our circle of knowledge expands, so does the circumference of darkness surrounding it.” – Albert Einstein
Vukcevic, I followed your link but the graphs are not well explained to someone who is new to solar observations. I have a technical background, just need some verbage to go along with the graphs. Can you add some labels and explanations for each graph?
Hi LW, thank you for your interest.
the graphs were made 6-7 years ago, they need updating, but at first glance I can see that progression of solar activity is as expected at that time.
The top graph shows equation from a set of three, derived some 15 ears ago, one of which accurately predicted the SC24 peak (see here and further links in there ).
At the time it was a subject of strong disagreement with the NASA’s top solar scientist and subsequently with our resident solar expert, but time has shown that either by design or accident it proved to be good.
The graph shows that low cycles and long minima alternate at periodicity of about 50 years, which suggest that a long (possibly another grand) minimum is to be expected.
Do have in mind that some 15 years ago, number of NASA’s scientists were predicting that the SC24 was going to be strongest ever and a possibility or even the idea of a forthcoming long minimum was widely ridiculed.
the ‘N-S hemispheric solar activity execs’ is well covered in the solar literature, googling the phrase leads to lot of links on the subject.
I stopped posting for a few years when I saw that the projection for the same or stronger sunspots were forecasts….. then a deep solar min developed. What a surprise. Why argue about the climate when a stronger solar cycle implies warmer temperatures? As it was, co2 was still going up and temps weren’t. Unless you actually believe that there was no pause.
Julian, that is a really interesting observation, which I haven’t seen before. If you are right then it puts minimum much later than most people have predicted, and would constitute another twelve and a half year cycle.
One guy on this blog a few months ago said that minimum would turn out to have already occurred in April 2018. I replied that the famous butterfly diagram disagreed. Even so, from extraploating its then shape, I couldn’t see it being much later than late 2019, for an 11-year cycle. However, some recent moderate latitude sunspots are helping to keep the butterfly diagram more elongated, so who knows?
Well certainly not me! Thank you See Owe To Rich. What’s truly excellent about the progression of SC24 to SC25 is that we’ll see quite shortly. Unlike, oh, I dunno, whether the Maldives gets to rename itself New Atlantis a lifespan from now.
With the prophecy of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Cooling, I invested in a heater. With the prophecy of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming, I invested in a cooler. With the advent of [Catastrophic Anthropogenic] Climate Change, I invested in a different consensus.
Am expecting eastern Canada to be hit very hard this winter. Once we move into the second half of winter and the snowfields have extended across Russia, then there will be high risk of some bitterly cold air flowing into Canada. How often will this cold air extend into eastern USA am not so sure. Because l suspect the cold air will end up flowing over the northern Atlantic for a fair amount of the time during the winter.
Also northern England looks like it will be getting its first snow of the season towards the end of this month. As high pressure forms over the northern Atlantic and brings cold Arctic air down across England.
How cool that this article occurred as I am thinking of my March 2019 trip to the Galapagos. I told my wife that the El Nino should warm up the normally low 70’s upwelled water temperature there, but I do not know how much. If not too off topic, could anyone tell me what I can expect as El Nino should be in full swing by then right?
Mario
I like Paul’s forecasts and methods, but his 2009 ENSO analog is actually one step ahead of where we truly are now wrt the current solar cycle analog. We are closer to both the solar and ENSO 2006 analog year.
TSI is over 3 years past its peak now; 2006 was over 3 years after TSI was as high in 2003 as it was in the 2015 peak, before dropping almost another three years to the last minimum, meaning 2018 wouldn’t be very close to a 2009 solar analog when considering all the solar indices together:
It’s seems to me the sun hasn’t reached the depths of the last minimum:
(a) # days SSN =0: 2018 is a few months ahead of 2007
(b) # days F10.7<70: 2018 is a few months ahead of 2007
(c) # days Xray=A0: 2018 is behind 2007 by a few months
(d) SSN: 2018 nearing June 2008 level
(e) F10.7: 2018 nearing June 2008 level
(f) Xray: 2018 six months behind 2007
(g) SORCE TSI: 2018 at 2006 in 1yr running ave*
(h) PMOD TSI: 2018 below 2009 solar minimum floor**
(i) RMIB TSI: 2018 above 2017 again***
* 2006 had bigger area sunspots than 2018; TSI may be too high yet, closer to 2007
** TSI lower than the last minimum already is very very unlikely
*** TSI running ave higher than last year not supported by other indices
The red circles at 2006 and this year in the bottom panel below are my Nino34 analogs:
I do expect a 2009-like ENSO – what I call the 'solar cycle onset ENSO', before the usual climb to the solar maximum and subsequent post-max ENSOs, and when it does, it'll be doing it's part of the 'solar cycle influence' on SSTs – but I think we're not there yet:
The latest nino 3.4 data is barely above +.50c
You’re just telling me what I told you a few days ago. It’s sad that you have nothing original to say.
Look down further at my next comment to see that I’m not pushing an ENSO, I stated its a potential
I agree with Paul’s forecast because we don’t have to be at the solar minimum yet to have the potential scenario of even a near-ENSO, with goodly but smaller amounts of precipitation and of shorter duration, under the present low solar induced cold conditions in the NH winter.
Yes I understand and I agree that accumulated TSI is a part of all of this but I say there is more to this then just that metric.
You do not even consider the geo magnetic field which amazes me, nor galactic cosmic rays and the possible effects which are tied to the geo magnetic field.
The global electrical circuit /Forbush events for example is strong evidence for a galactic cosmic ray ,cloud coverage link.
The major explosive volcanic activity geological activity in general galactic cosmic ray link you dismiss out of hand.
We just look at items and there climatic input differently.
I have gave many details about this and at the same time have admitted I do not know what level of combined weakness and or duration is needed for the solar/geo magnetic fields to have a major climatic impact as opposed to a minor one.
You do not even consider the geo magnetic field which amazes me, nor galactic cosmic rays and the possible effects which are tied to the geo magnetic field.
The global electrical circuit /Forbush events for example is strong evidence for a galactic cosmic ray ,cloud coverage link.
Your impression is based upon my not talking about those factors at all lately, for years.
Do you know I started out here at WUWT with my ‘electric weather effects’ and events, in 2013/14? All the topics you listed fall under this area. It would seem to be in my interest to promote the cosmic ray theory, but I know it doesn’t work because of TSI.
Since 2014 I have discerned via long hard work the dominance of the TSI solar cycle influence over all other solar forcings that includes solar-driven electric weather events.
I’ve learned that those who fall into the magnetic field or CO2 forcing ideas are simply under aware of the TSI influence and how it works.
This is why I spend all my time on TSI here at WUWT. It’s the most important part of understanding the climate and how it changes. My research into the entire climate area has become my top priority over even starting the websites I wanted to in 2014.
Since 2014 it became apparent that in order for me to keep up on doing electric weather research on a continual basis, I needed to see a myraid of data all at once all day every day, so I undertook to develop and create an web application to display and record ongoing data every 5 minutes.
Here is an example with two of my ‘app images’:
Part of my morning routine is recording earthquake and volcanic activity, along with climate and solar data, so I can evaluate the ongoing sun-earth relationship and make sense of geophysical activity wherever possible. Here is a typical record I keep of the major earthquakes from the other day:
You made so many accusations and generalizations about me here that were wrong.
It would seem to be in my interest to promote the cosmic ray theory, but I know it doesn’t work because of TSI.
Bob says in the above.
My reply – I disagree.
For every person that agrees with your statement I can find one that doesn’t.
http://www.icecap.us/images/uploads/Solar_Changes_and_the_Climate.pdf
I am with Joe D ‘Aleo . Excellent analysis of solar/climate relationships.
I’m surprised that neither Bob nor Salvatore said anything about co2 being the control knob for temperature. (not really) .. As I read it, the agreement between them is major and the disagreements are minor.
For whatever reason, it does seem that historically more volcanoes go off during a prolonged solar quite. A major event, without question, would have a noticeably cooler effect on the climate.
An increase in cosmic rays also seem to be a factor in cloud formation and as evidence of that are the flooding that is occurring, larger than average size hail, and snow/cold in places that are unusual and rare.
For me it will be interesting to see 1) what happens 2) how AGW spins it.
Just so everyone knows how to read the sun if they didn’t, today was a zero sunspot number day, an Xray flux=A0 day, and with F10.7cm =70.9, it was not an F10.7<70 day, per the solar minimum indices graphic.
In the next graphic, when that bright active region just on the right-hand side was center disk there was a TSI spike. With it rolling away out of sight now, TSI is declining again with the absence of the surface network.
The bluer it gets, the lower TSI is, the colder it gets. This morning was very cold in the US:
I agree with Paul's forecast because we don't have to be at the solar minimum yet to have the potential scenario of even a near-ENSO, with goodly but smaller amounts of precipitation and of shorter duration, under the present low solar induced cold conditions in the NH winter.
What I find interesting is the gradual emergence of two “peaks” of solar activity, with the peaks separating and the first reducing in magnitude.
notice this line in the arcticle.
“[By the way, the temperature at Summit Station, Greenland at 4 PM on Sunday [October 21, 2018] was minus 38 degrees (F)].”
If it had reached -40 he wouldnt have needed to append the F because both C and F are the same at -40 .
October 21 is not even close to the dead of winter. What happened to global warming?
El Niño? Which El Niño? ONI has been deep neutral for the last 5 months. Color me skeptical of any forecasts predicting El Niño any time soon.
Picking the absolute bottom of the minimum is a mug’s game and means very little in the grand scheme. We are in the minimum and may stay here for some time. I think it would be wise to withhold judgment for another year. In the meantime, you may want to digest this and save it for later. It is a hypothesis about the bimodal solar peaks for the past several cycles and the heartbeat of the sun.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/d938a39pwzvk4ii/Zharkova%20et%20al%2C%202015.pdf?dl=0
Hard not to notice from the first chart that solar output hss declined since 1977. Haven’t global temperatures increased over that same period?
Hard not to notice from the first chart that solar output has declined since 1977.
The observation is common, true, and misleading simultaneously.
The climate warms from TSI, not sunspot number. TSI is non-linear wrt to SSN at high SSN. I found a sweet spot in SSN and TSI around 160-180.
PMOD version 1709 TSI rankings put SC23 years ahead of SC21 & 22, which provided the energy for the temperature step change after the 98 ENSO (the last column is SSN):
2002 1361.6119 163.6
2000 1361.5917 173.9
2001 1361.5312 170.4
1980 1361.5147 218.9
1981 1361.5048 198.9
1989 1361.4849 211.1
1979 1361.4294 220.1
1990 1361.4294 191.8
1999 1361.3642 136.3
1991 1361.3542 203.3
Many people who are unaware of this have concluded similarly. The temperature rise follows the solar cycle influences across cycles. According to my work, the ocean warms/cool at decadal scales at a solar input threshold of 120 sfu in F10.7cm/94 v2 SSN, which each solar cycle shown exceeded, driving the accumulation of ocean heat and therefore surface temperature and general climate.
Analogy: While your regular income is higher than spending your retained earnings grow, even if your income is declining.
THe adjusted and homogenized temperatures have risen.
Some of us are working on the premise that the ‘Quiet Sun’ has brought lower UV type rays. So the top ocean layer is not getting so much energy/warmth. This leads to Nino failures such as the last two and maybe this one. We wait and see and study possible causative mechanisms. CO2 may not make it to the front of the list….
Almost all of the BOM models predict an El Nino however the underlying data seems to indicate a neutral year, The SOI, cloudiness ( outgoing LWR ) and the trade winds are all in neutral territory.
“In addition, empirical observations have shown that the sun can have important ramifications on weather and climate on shorter time scales including those associated with the average solar cycle of around 11-years. For example, there is evidence that low solar activity during solar minimum years tend to be well-correlated with more frequent “high-latitude blocking” events compared to normal and this type of atmospheric phenomenon can play an important role in the winter season.”
Changes in the solar wind effect atmospheric teleconnections at daily-weekly scales. Look around the sunspot cycle maxima of 1969 and 1979/80 and you’ll see the same high-latitude blocking, because the solar wind was at its weakest around sunspot maximum in those solar cycles.
SOI index 30 day average now climbing to 0 . AMO looking to flip into a cold mode. Solar activity entered an inactive period of time in year 2005 and it will remain so for several years and as the geo magnetic field continues to weaken the magnetic field effects upon the climate should become more apparent.
El Nino not very likely this year they are missing it as usual.
To clarify it is both solar/geo magnetic fields that impact the climate if in sync and weakness and duration are both strong and long enough.
some major effects
lower overall oceanic sea surface temperatures
increase in major explosive volcanic activity
more meridional atmospheric circulation
greater global cloud and snow cover
it’s obvious to me, CO2 has caused the Sun minimum to happen………once the minimum is over the earth will heat to +5 degrees C and all the polar ice caps will melt forever. 😉
Weak sun? Still waiting to hear from Leif. Hope he’s ok. Can’t believe he has nothing to say on this.
He’s probably finally grown tired of repeating himself and hearing from the same people over and over again who don’t have enough knowledge to make intelligent postings on the Sun.
Active areas on the sun (alternative proxy to sunspots) is now at or near zero, maybe he is hibernating?
Not only Greenland is cold.
http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/4km/r08_Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence_ts_4km.png
The Beaufort Sea is almost completely covered with ice.
http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/latest/4km/masie_all_r01_4km.png
Regarding ENSO they are numerous occasions where El Nino doesn’t first develop until at least December of any given year. (>+0.5 for at least 3 months) Others years usually first occurred between September and November.
Examples below from the last 30 years.
The last 2 values are Nino3.4 with the anomaly.
1991 1 23.86 -0.60 25.65 0.02 29.00 0.70 27.01 0.44
1991 2 25.97 -0.10 26.27 -0.10 28.73 0.63 26.93 0.21
1991 3 26.51 -0.01 26.99 -0.15 28.64 0.45 27.25 0.03
1991 4 24.99 -0.48 27.32 -0.18 29.13 0.63 27.98 0.20
1991 5 24.37 0.17 27.58 0.50 29.42 0.63 28.35 0.50
1991 6 23.05 0.23 27.34 0.91 29.35 0.51 28.36 0.71
1991 7 22.05 0.45 26.57 0.95 29.26 0.46 27.92 0.70
1991 8 21.08 0.43 25.47 0.48 29.25 0.57 27.44 0.62
1991 9 20.75 0.39 25.05 0.20 29.19 0.50 27.07 0.35
Wasn’t until October for significant development.
1991 10 21.13 0.31 25.60 0.68 29.44 0.78 27.63 0.94
1991 11 22.18 0.59 25.98 1.00 29.45 0.82 27.86 1.21
1991 12 23.43 0.64 26.52 1.38 29.45 0.96 28.37 1.80
1994 1 24.32 -0.14 25.71 0.08 28.47 0.17 26.60 0.03
1994 2 25.79 -0.28 26.07 -0.30 28.07 -0.03 26.59 -0.13
1994 3 25.43 -1.09 26.89 -0.25 28.26 0.07 27.27 0.05
1994 4 24.32 -1.15 27.06 -0.44 28.62 0.12 27.90 0.12
1994 5 23.22 -0.98 26.97 -0.11 29.00 0.21 28.04 0.19
1994 6 22.43 -0.39 26.50 0.07 29.18 0.34 27.99 0.34
1994 7 21.21 -0.39 25.19 -0.43 29.40 0.60 27.35 0.13
1994 8 19.70 -0.95 24.71 -0.28 29.46 0.78 27.35 0.53
1994 9 20.16 -0.20 24.81 -0.04 29.23 0.54 27.00 0.28
Wasn’t until October until significant development.
1994 10 21.53 0.71 25.53 0.61 29.45 0.79 27.49 0.80
1994 11 22.41 0.82 25.87 0.89 29.63 1.00 27.87 1.22
1994 12 23.61 0.82 26.07 0.93 29.50 1.01 27.87 1.30
2014 1 24.79 0.27 25.26 -0.37 28.14 -0.17 26.06 -0.51
2014 2 25.40 -0.75 25.56 -0.81 28.37 0.27 26.18 -0.55
2014 3 25.86 -0.78 26.90 -0.24 28.71 0.52 26.99 -0.22
2014 4 25.23 -0.37 27.73 0.23 29.13 0.63 28.01 0.24
2014 5 25.57 1.30 27.69 0.61 29.56 0.77 28.31 0.46
2014 6 24.51 1.64 27.32 0.89 29.43 0.59 28.11 0.46
2014 7 22.98 1.36 26.27 0.65 29.09 0.29 27.40 0.18
2014 8 21.91 1.27 25.51 0.52 29.14 0.46 27.02 0.20
2014 9 21.30 0.96 25.31 0.45 29.34 0.65 27.17 0.45
2014 10 21.54 0.75 25.58 0.66 29.31 0.64 27.17 0.49
Wasn’t until November until there was significant development.
2014 11 22.33 0.74 25.88 0.91 29.52 0.88 27.50 0.85
2014 12 22.90 0.08 25.94 0.80 29.40 0.91 27.35 0.7
2018 1 23.71 -0.81 24.48 -1.14 28.03 -0.27 25.82 -0.75
2018 2 25.57 -0.57 25.36 -1.01 27.86 -0.24 25.83 -0.90
2018 3 25.83 -0.80 26.37 -0.76 28.14 -0.05 26.48 -0.73
2018 4 24.58 -1.02 27.12 -0.38 28.63 0.12 27.42 -0.36
2018 5 23.73 -0.54 26.94 -0.15 29.01 0.22 27.72 -0.13
2018 6 22.19 -0.69 26.72 0.29 29.16 0.32 27.85 0.20
2018 7 21.43 -0.19 26.05 0.43 29.10 0.30 27.52 0.30
2018 8 20.66 0.02 25.14 0.15 29.19 0.51 27.11 0.29
2018 9 20.26 -0.08 25.15 0.29 29.14 0.45 27.07 0.34
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices
Until November has at least finished it’s still too early to judge where things will develop for Winter/Spring regarding El Nino. This pattern is also similar with developments of La Nina.
Picking the absolute bottom of the minimum is a mug’s game and means very little in the grand scheme. We are in the minimum and may stay here for some time. I think it would be wise to withhold judgment for another year. In the meantime, you may want to digest this and save it for later. It is a hypothesis about the bimodal solar peaks for the past several cycles and the heartbeat of the sun.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/d938a39pwzvk4ii/Zharkova%20et%20al%2C%202015.pdf?dl=0
I don’t think a absolute bottom of the minimum is necessary. Once a certain low threshold is reached and stays that way long enough that will do.
Sea surface temperature shows the current circulation over North America.
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/animation_e.html?id=month&bc=sea
Contrary to appearances, on the west it will not be too warm.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/gif_files/gfs_hgt_trop_NA_f24.png
Here in Cleveland Ohio, from 2009 to 2012 Winters were very warm and very low snowfall.
Let’s see the actual surface temperature of the equatorial Pacific.
Tom is correct on this.
It is actually quite amusing to watch all the usual suspects display their ignorance.
Leif,
That’s ok, just check in once in a while so I don’t worry about you if it’s about the sun.
Regards,
JimG1
Many people who are unaware of this have concluded similarly. The temperature rise follows the solar cycle influences across cycles. According to my work, the ocean warms/cool at decadal scales at a solar input threshold of 120 sfu in F10.7cm/94 v2 SSN, which each solar cycle shown exceeded, driving the accumulation of ocean heat and therefore surface temperature and general climate.
Bob I agree with this. We are not as far apart as it seems and I appreciate your hard work on this very complicated subject.
what “work”?
In general. You have much detailed data on what you are promoting , which I admit I lack in some areas especially when it comes to the geo magnetic field.
The thirty day SOI index has been increasing since 03/10/2018.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
https://watchers.news/2018/03/08/research-helps-explain-ongoing-changes-in-geomagnetic-field/
Some rather recent information on geo magnetic field, which is not easy to come by.
The different sources that contribute to the magnetic field measured by Swarm. The coupling currents or field-aligned currents flow along magnetic field lines between the magnetosphere and ionosphere.
https://www.esa.int/spaceinimages/Images/2012/10/Magnetic_field_sources
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The SAFIRE Team.
http://www.safireproject.com”
I have to admit the possibility of global warming scares me. Yes, it I know it means a growing food supply, fewer deaths… and generally a more productive planet. But I love cold weather. It I wasn’t married, I’d move to Alaska. When the temperatures rise into the 80’s here on my mountaintop near Reno, I get worried and seek shelter. At that elevation, the sun is fierce – even in the dead of winter. I go around in T-shirts in the winter here if the sun is shining, and the wind is light to moderate. We get a foot or so of snow in the winter – but not enough that I can justify getting a snowmobile – even at 5,900 ft altitude. I yearn for global cooling, although all my friends think I’m crazy.
When I get old, and my will bones crave the warmth (I hear), I can always light a juniper fire in the fireplace and warm up. Read a book. Watch an old favorite movie. Cuddle with my wife while I do either. What is old? I’m 64, and I still make snow angels in the buff (TMI, I know), make snowmen, and revel in the winter beauty. I love being able to track the deer (and trailing coyotes) in the snow – even if only for a few days – even though I do not hunt. Winter is fun. Skiing, sledding – just walking on a pristine mountain side. Or target shooting without fear of starting a wildfire.
But not everyone is adapted to cold, I have started to understand. I thought most of my friends were just teasing – who couldn’t love winter? Soaking in a hot tub outdoors while the snow falls is exhilarating! But an awful lot of people die every year from exposure to the cold. I wish they could all move to Florida, Texas, Arizona… and Southern California.
And leave me to play in my beautiful winter wonderland.
But I still like my fresh, inexpensive veggies and fruit. And that has only recently (my lifetime) been in such abundance. Sacrifices must be made. Let’s have more CO2, and maybe a bit more warming.
And maybe I’ll move to Alaska yet. Although I hear the summers there are warm, humid, and buggy. Sheesh. Maybe I can buy real estate in Antarctica?