Wet southern states to contrast drought in West – weak El Nino expected
A mild winter could be in store for much of the United States this winter according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February, above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.
Additionally, El Nino has a 70 to 75 percent chance of developing. “We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North.”
El Nino is an ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.
Other climate patterns that can affect winter weather are challenging to predict on a seasonal time scale. The Arctic Oscillation influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and could result in below-average temperatures in the eastern part of the U.S. The Madden-Julian Oscillation can contribute to heavy precipitation events along the West Coast – which could play a large role in shaping the upcoming winter, especially if El Nino is weak, as forecasters predict.
The 2018 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):
Temperature
- Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.
- The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
- No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.
Precipitation
- Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the U.S., and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter.
- Drier-than-average conditions are most likely in parts of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains, as well as in the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.
- Drought conditions are likely to persist across portions of the Southwest, Southern California, the central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains and portions of the interior Pacific Northwest.
- Drought conditions are anticipated to improve in areas throughout Arizona and New Mexico, southern sections of Utah and Colorado, the coastal Pacific Northwest and the Central Plains.
NOAA’s seasonal outlooks give the likelihood that temperatures and precipitation will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are expected to change, but the outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available on Nov. 15.
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While I agree that the Western US temperatures will be normal to above normal, I think the Southeast will be below normal. The Southeast will probably have above normal precip also.
My window plant tells me that it is going to be a very cold winter in the UK, and I’m preparing accordingly, but if that ‘brainless vegetable’ gets it wrong it will be binned with no regrets.
vuk,
“My window plant tells me”: great.
And yes: window plants often told vukcevic right.
why not now. Cheers
The squirrel has not yet shown up looking to freeload, although she usually does at this time of the month of October. I will take that as meaning she’s not really hurting for food and probably won’t have any problem stuffing herself this coming winter.
I’m only really concerned about the cold. Snow is something I can handle, but the cold drives me indoors. Not pleasant here when it’s really bad.
Had our first dusting of snow today (Southern Vermont).
That was early by a few weeks.
Not looking forward to this winter.
Is snow a good precursor for temperature? I think it bodes for some above avg temps.
And don’t forget you’re sitting within the influence of a large body water and this has an effect on the frequency of snow.
We all had some dips in temp temporarily across the north of the country but it popped back up to normal quite quickly.
It depends on the weather systems developed in Canada.
I don’t mind snow but the cold costs a lot of money for heating these days.
Once you start getting snow on the ground, your day time highs will start to take an immediate hit.
Weatherbell’s Aug 6 2018 Winter Forecast is here = I don’t have the update.
https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2018-19-august-outlook
What is NOAA’s track record on these predictions? Are they as accurate as, say, the Olde Farmers Almanac? If so you may as well just guess for yourself. Many of the older farmers I work around are calling for a fairly nasty winter here in western PA.
“What is NOAA’s track record on these predictions?” Pre-winter or post-winter?
Good one. Their penchant for changing past data and records leaves me less than ready to accepting anything they got to say.
stock up on heating oil and fuel….make sure you have enough food and warm clothes
Exactly, I bought a big greenhouse too!
Does the greenhouse have an effect?
Maybe they do it like they used to do hurricane number and strength predictions – update them to reflect reality as the season goes along. You start out predicting 20 named hurricanes. Mid-season when there have been only 7, you change your prediction to 15. And then as the season ends and there have only been 12, you change your prediction also to 12 – and voila, 100% correct!
Anthony,
This forecast should be re-visited next Spring!
No idea on their record, but the prediction is vastly different than Bastardi and Weatherbell.
Not that much, just a bit warmer. the boundaries are very similar. Remember, Joe said that the US models often run hotter than the Met. Time will tell, but I think Joe’s meteorological reasoning makes more sense than theirs.
The advantage Joe has is that he incorporates multiple agencies (including JMA and DMA) and then finds analogous past events to feed the Pioneer models.
I wonder how many of the whizbangs who work government jobs can not only tell you about historic storms from memory, but what sports events were affected by it that day?
The guy is really quite a thinker, no matter how cornball his sense of humor is. I watch his update every day.
The difference simply amounts to Weatherbell using history and the NOAA adjusting history, each to its own advantage.
Joe reminds me of Dr. Frank Davis, professor at Drexel University who also was the Weather Forecaster for WPVI Channel 6, ABC, out of Philadelphia.
Davis was a weather historian and understood the 5-6 weather systems that effected SE Pennsylvania weather. His work preceded computer modeling and it was known he keep a journal of all his forecasts which indicated an accuracy of 92%.
I also take advantage of WeatherBell Analytics when I get conflicting forecasts from the rank amateurs ( parrots )on TV.
Exactly the right question – and information that would be provided with such a forecast if NOAA was actually trying to be helpful. I suspect their seasonal forecast accuracy record is very poor – or useless in that it covers a large spread.
My recall is that European models and a number of non-government vendors in the US have quite a bit stronger track records on these medium term predictions. It would be nice to see a running report on predictions and accuracy with various high end sources compared one to the other – a prediction registry if you like with common rules for everyone.
I was raised in western PA.
It is a great place to be from.
ta i was also remembering the almanc says bad winter coming
and looking at the slab of upper n mid areas either flooded or under snow ruining harvests now..
stuff noaa id go with the almanac
Bom here in aus just finished warning of el nino dry
so, as usual we’ve(mostly)all had below avg temps and rain
its lovely;-)
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/05/climate-scientist-air-pollution-cleanup-may-be-major-driver-of-global-warming/#comment-2365792
[excerpt]
One of my friends and co-authors is Joe d’Aleo, an American Weather Forecaster who was the Founding Chief Meteorologist for the Weather Channel.
NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) forecast a warm winter for 2014-15 and Joe told me in October 2014 that the NWS forecast was seriously incorrect, and that the next winter would be particularly cold and snowy, especially in the populous Northeast. This was the second consecutive year that the NWS has made a highly incorrect (excessively warm) Winter forecast, in Joe’s opinion – and he and his colleagues at WeatherBell have an outstanding track record of accurate forecasts.
Joe and I had been working together on a paper on Excess Winter Mortality, and I suggested to Joe that this false “warm winter” NWS forecast was dangerous, especially if the country and its people were unprepared. Joe agreed, but did not know how to tackle the problem.
I proposed an approach, and we prepared a presentation for my friend at the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). At the EIA’s request, Joe then prepared his own Winter Forecast by month and by region, and the EIA re-ran their Winter Energy Demand calculations. Using Joe’s forecast, the EIA projected 11% more total winter energy required for the entire USA than the “warm” NWS forecast had projected. That is an awful lot of energy – mostly oil, natural gas and coal.
After that brutally cold and snowy winter, a back-analysis showed that the actual winter energy used was 10% more than the projection using the NWS weather forecast, and just 1% less than that using Joe’s forecast.
I’m not sure if we saved any lives, but I still think we did a good deed.
Regards, Allan
Yep, when it comes to a choice between NOAA and Joe Bastardi I will go with Joe.
“A mild winter could be in store for much of the United States this winter according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In the U.S. ”
Time to go long on snow shovel futures
Already stocked up on salt, got both snowblowers serviced and getting both vehicles freshly undercoated on Monday, then we be set.
Down my way I have already reminded my northern friends that if they are visiting and staying with me I expect them to buy the food and snacks they like for themselves. I will provide toilet paper though. And I don’t pick people up at the airport or drive them around, if they are staying for free then they can rent a car.
Roger that Tom.
And what’s your phone/address?
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month.
Better than updating 1910 global temperature every three months.
Joe Bastardi has a completely different forecast then NOAA. I hope Joe is correct.
That said this diversity in the forecast is just bringing home my point which is the models can not predict the future climate a few months out much less years out because they do not incorporate the items which control the climate mainly magnetic field strengths and all the associated secondary effects. When , and if these fields become extreme enough the climatic impacts will be greater which will render the models more and more useless. We are seeing this now.
A look at El Nino. The El Nino forecasting has been horrendous of late and this year could wind up the same way. Currently it looks less likely for El Nino now(SOI INDEX will not be reaching -8 any time soon. The EL NINO threshold.) then it did two weeks ago which is one of the cornerstones of both forecast, that being Joe’s and the NOAA. What strikes me is even with that commonality the forecast are still so different.
The world of climate largely think the models are the answers which could not be further from the truth and as the duration and degree of magnitude change of the magnetic fields evolve this will just become more and more apparent. They will soon find this out.
I second Salvatore’s comment regarding Joe’s winter forecast. Also, I don’t think I have ever seen a situation where the entirety of the continental US AND Alaska are above normal at the same time, or below normal for that matter. Normally East coast and Alaska are in opposite ends of patterns, especially in the winter. People much more knowledgeable than I will comment on this, but right now what NOAA is describing is not at all the pattern that is setting up. Alaska is currently much warmer than normal, and the East Coast has plunged well below normal. So, right now at least, Joe’s winter forecast looks more likely than NOAA’s.
His is a pretty boring forecast for me – normal temp, normal precip (not that I’m complaining)
I’m in Bastardi’s camp. The water temps in the Gulf of Alaska are warmer than normal and a Modoki El Niño (even if it is minimal) begs for a High over NW North America. The jet follows the edge of the ridge and will bring down arctic air into the NE/SE US and eastern Canada. If it a persistent pattern, it will be a persistent ice box east of the Mississippi River.
So if (probably when) the NOAA forecast totally fails … who gets fired?
Currently it looks less likely for El Nino now(SOI INDEX will not be reaching -8 any time soon. The EL NINO threshold.)
You weren’t watching the data, Sept SOI is -9, so your typical snap judgment was wrong.
because they do not incorporate the items which control the climate mainly magnetic field strengths and all the associated secondary effects.
The Earth’s magnetic field does not control the climate.
The Sun’s magnetic field does control the climate continuously via sunspot activity induced TSI changes, with secondary solar particle effects. TSI extremes and duration define climate extremes.
When , and if these fields become extreme enough the climatic impacts will be greater which will render the models more and more useless. We are seeing this now.
Your casually conclusions are stated so vaguely as to mean anything. There are many kinds of magnetic fields. Which one exactly is the one you say controls the climate? When did it become extreme?
When you keep saying “we are seeing this now’ you remind me of propagadist Al Gore’s methods: vague claims about extremes, rinse and repeat, with no supporting data.
Bob you really need to get in tune with the latest data. The latest 30 day SOI index is -2.88,and on the rise.
Which magnetic fields influence the climate?? The solar/geo magnetic fields. Why? Because they moderate UV light/Near UV light which effects global surface oceanic temperatures, they moderate galactic cosmic rays which moderate global cloud /snow coverage and major volcanic activity, the magnetic fields also moderate EUV light which in turn effects the atmospheric circulation patterns and cloud and snow coverage.
So you are wrong when you assert the solar and geo magnetic fields DO not determine the climate. The reason it is not apparent is because most of the time the duration and degree of magnitude change of the fields is to small and many times they do not move in sync. This time however they are both weakening rather dramatically and moving in sync so the chances of more apparent climatic effects is on the rise.
Bob your assertion that it is just TSI is entirely wrong. TSI varies inversely within itself meaning the whole TSI spectrum does not EVEN move in unison with a weakening or strengthening sun. The sum change being so small that TSI alone can not impact the climate to any significant degree which you keep saying. Yes TSI has maybe a .2c effect upon the climate at most. Any additional climatic changes go well beyond TSI itself.
As far as supporting data the Dalton and Maunder solar minimums supply some supporting evidence but the geo magnetic field back then was stronger then it is now and the compounding effect was less then what it will be now.
I say the missing part of the puzzle is the geo magnetic field strength and orientation meaning the location of the magnetic poles which will direct galactic cosmic rays to certain latitudes where by they would be much more effective in cloud creation and lower latitude major volcanic activity.
I say how fast the geo magnetic field weakens going forward is going to be a big factor in what happens to the climate. How weak does that have to become ? I would say at levels it has achieved in the past that took the field to the point of approaching a geo magnetic excursion. It is probably above the levels that would be associated with a geo magnetic excursion.
The latest monthly SOI from Australia is -10. The 30 day was below -8 from Sep 30 to Oct 7, so why were you saying it won’t be reaching that low anytime soon? It could back down again just as fast as it went up.
Look at how many vague untestable claims you just made again.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
Bob here is the latest SOI data. As you can see I am correct.
As far as the magnetic fields the reason why you are not big on it is because you do not accept the galactic cosmic rays climatic effects, while I do. In other words we have a difference of opinion.
The long term trend appears to be down, but also may start a rebound…
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/monthly-graphs/
2015 Initial onset El Nino
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2015&month=04
2015 Mature El Nino
http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC007/IDYOC007.201512.gif
Recent 4 months of 2018
http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC007/IDYOC007.201810.gif
El–Nino appeared more likely in June 2018 than it does now (from June 2018):
http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC007/IDYOC007.201806.gif
” … Currently it looks less likely for El Nino now(SOI INDEX will not be reaching -8 any time soon. The EL NINO threshold.) then it did two weeks ago which is one of the cornerstones of both forecast, that being Joe’s and the NOAA. What strikes me is even with that commonality the forecast are still so different. … ”
—
Equatorial low level winds are blowing mostly from the east @ a steady ~15 to 20 km/h over 2/3 the equator area, with trade-wind flow operating across much of the tropical zone either side. It’s really just closer to Central America where low-level Westerlies occur, and that’s predominantly due to the on-going vorticity induced a flurry of lows and hurricanes in the area this season. I can’t see the El-Nino trend developing if that continues.
Agreed!
Joe Bastardi and Weatherbell’s winter 2018-2019 prediction is for serious cold and snowy in the East Coast.
I help you hope it. But I am not too sure. Global cooling means more rain at lower latitudes and less at higher latitudes. It is happening. Now. The rivers in Europe are at lowest. I predict coolest Europe in many years. Hunger years coming up soon.
So far, it is much colder than normal in south-central Texas, with flooding. Last year was unusually cold, so lets see what actually happens.
At my place in north central Texas, it has also been unseasonably “cold” and luckily very wet which we did need. For the seven years I’ve been here, I have had lots of year round cardinals–not unusual to see 10 or more bright red males in the front yard at a time. This year, I haven’t seen a cardinal, nor many other birds for at least a month or 6 weeks. Feeders I usually need to fill daily have been untouched. Don’t know if that portends a very cold winter, or not, but sure is strange bird behavior. Don’t have any idea what’s happening with the “woolly buggers”
I have cardinals all winter here at the confluence of the Mississippi and Illinois rivers. I usually have lots of woodpeckers and flickers too, but lately a great horned owl has been living too close for comfort for the rest of the bird population. Can’t do much but watch it all nowadays, unless you don’t care about incarceration and fines.
Grafton?
Here’s what the Old Farmer’s Almanac says:
“Contrary to the stories storming the web, our time-tested, long-range formula is pointing toward a very long, cold, and snow-filled winter.”
I’ll believe what the OFA says before NOAA, which has a known Warmist agenda.
I thought I saw the MSM was playing off one Farmer’s Almanac group version against the other in order to dilute the prediction of a colder winter by one of them? They do that when needed to downplay the word “colder”.
Okay, I’m headed to the home improvement store for more attic insulation. That is a real bet with real money it will be colder this winter and next.
Insulation works both ways, you can’t go wrong with more. And mind airflow, it converts insulation into a filter.
Better practice the global warming-caused Polar Vortex story again. It will be needed many times this winter. The Weather Channel is pretty good at it.
It not the polar vortex that causes extremely low temperatures, but stratospheric intrusions (in periods of low solar activity and in the absence of El Niño are more likely). Read more below.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_int/
Stratospheric incursions are now happening more frequently in Siberia.
As if they needed more cold.
“To those who have, more will be given”.
Will this be the 8th warmest year or the 12th? I forget those headline manipulations quickly.
It’ll be the 6th of the next coming 10 years – the models say so!
Winter is already here for quite a few states already and it is only October.
There are already Cold records being set.
Just pretend it’s a Chinese re-education camp and think it’s warmer no matter what in the name of the Party.
28 deg F this morning 530am mid maine usa.
Turned the heat on last week for the first time, and it’s staying in “HEAT” mode for the rest of the season, I believe. Yesterday and today were in the middle 30’s in the morning (northern NJ). Last year I don’t think we had the heat on steady until November.
In MN, we had a 2 inch snowstorm already last weekend. Thankfully it got up into the 40s later in the day and the following ones and didn’t stick around, but we’ve been sitting mid 30s to low 40s all week until today and tomorrow where we hit a blistering 65 before promptly going back down into the low to mid 40s.
We’ve been pretty consistently 10-15F below our normal yearly average so far. I’m not trusting a “warmer” forecast until it actually warms up.
Denver, Colorado. Had the AC on through September, only two weeks with no temp control, now heat is on and we got snow this past Sunday.
It’s just weather. I don’t want to go back to snow like when I was a kid but also, maybe that would help these average know nothing’s to wtfu
Warm and drier and Michigan? GOOD! But I do not want to rob from Peter to pay Paul, could be harsher next winter to make up for things.
“Warm and drier and Michigan?” Just wait a few minutes, it will change. That’s how we roll in the Mitten.
If you don’t like the climate in the upper midwest, just wait a day or two…
AYUP
That just about covers it
Either Above Average
Near Average
OR
Below Average
What is the quote… something like “climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”.
Does anybody believe anything that NOAA or GISS say any more?
no
If the temperature in the region Niño 1 + 2 will be low the wind in this area will be from east and forecast will not work.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=samer1×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
NOAA uses the notoriously bad GFS model, that apparently is similar to the overheated CAGW models. You can bet that their “clairvoyance” on this coming winter is overheated too.
They are making a seasonal forecast, not 5 or 10 days relevant to GFS. NOAA use every short term model available, from what I’ve seen. It’s their seasonal methods that are relevant to this forecast.
I don’t know what the future will be, always looks like chicken entrails to me.
Circulation in the lower stratosphere points to a different forecast.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/18/2100Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-90.75,66.16,390
The increase in ice in Hudson Bay may also be an indication for winter forecasts.
http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/4km/r10_Hudson_Bay_ts_4km.png
Please let NOAA get this one correct. More warm please, more, more, more.
I love global warming.
I think I will do a ‘happy dance’ around a big bonfire to get more CO2 into the air.
Maybe I will even sacrifice a few steaks and chops on my alter to GAIA grill. I’ll try to get Her in the right mood for sending me more warm weather.
The trouble with NOAA modifying all the past records is they end up believing their own propaganda. That seriously impacts the accuracy of their own forward looking projections/predictions/forecasts and guesses.
it’s easier to get warmer than normal…when the past has been adjusted cooler than normal
I keep seeing people refer to weather and climates as having the capacity to be “normal”. As someone who has spent over forty years studying climate and weather, I can assure you there is no such thing as “normal” in either category. All we can say for sure is that we have averages over certain time frames, and that “normal” is a good way to define things such as human body temperature.
Don’t agree. In both climate and weather, “change” is normal. And yes, considering that to be the case, there IS a normal climate and normal weather.
Best reply I have had to date on my thoughts about the use of the word “normal” as it applies to climate and weather.
Thanks Tom!
Except for the Sahel, where is climate changing ???
Oh no! We’re going to have nice weather this winter. Ahhh! Its Global warming and it’s all Trumps fault. /sarc
If you like good weather vote Donkey, you’ll get better weather more often.
They also have a bridge for sale, if you’re interested …
With my shiny new Obamanator CO2 climate-control knob, if you like your weather, you can keep your weather.
ht/B Sadam-Hussein O
Did you write this Anthony?
Were you being sarcastic–or did NOAA write something similar?
Look at the maps. They come from NOAA. This is how they do their seasonal predictions, “above, near, or below-average”.
Just received the email notice. Sunday River ski resort opens tomorrow for the season.
thought it was gonna be Nov 9 for the 2018-2019 season
Wow, that’s pretty amazing – skiing in the Northeast on October 19. For those who don’t know, Sunday River is a bit north and east of the White Mountains in New Hampshire (I had to look myself). It’s a testament to some colder air that has moved in, with no real warm weather in sight, meaning snowmaking can continue, especially at night.
Killington Vermont is opening tomorrow too.
In the early 1960’s there was an article in the Naval Institute Journal titled “The Blessing of Colonialism.” It was referring only to the British system of colonialism where the army had British officers, but native non-coms and troops. Same with the civil service, the Department Heads were British, but the clerks were native. When the colony was given it’s independence, it already had a cadre of professionals trained in western style administration.
We need to try that with some of these South American Countries.
Sorry. my computer hiccupped. the above comment belong on a different thread
It works no matter where you put it.
If you’re the NOAA you can predict future temperatures with 100% accuracy and confidence.
The current IMS Snow and Ice Chart shows how snow cover is spreading rapidly across both Canada and Siberia. Dr. Judah Cohen comments on this aspect at his AER blog Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
“I present what is I believe is the latest European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) winter forecast in Figure i taken from climate.copernicus.eu. The ECMWF model is generally considered the best forecast model on the planet. The first thing that jumps out at me is the predicted classic or text book positive Pacific North American (PNA) pattern with a deep Aleutian Low, ridging or elevated heights across northwestern North America including Alaska and troughing or low heights in the Southeastern US. The ECMWF model is also predicting a quasi-negative NAO with the southern pole or center of action more classically represented than the northern pole. But in regards to the US winter this represents a suppressed storm track along the Eastern Seaboard. A positive PNA should yield an overall cold winter to the Eastern US. The ECMWF model is most confident in a relatively cold winter in the Southeastern US with greater uncertainty in the Northeastern US while the suppressed storm track will bring elevated risks of East Coast snowstorms. And El Niño does tend to focus the greatest snow threat, at least relative to normal, in the Mid-Atlantic. If you are a winter weather enthusiast especially a snow lover living in the Mid-Atlantic this ECMWF winter forecast should have you very excited.”
“The other feature that jumps out at me is high latitude blocking. I already mentioned the blocking near Alaska but there is a second center near Scandinavia that extends eastward into the Barents-Kara Seas. If the ECMWF was predicting a textbook negative NAO this block would be closer to Greenland. I believe that if the ECMWF forecast is correct and the block sets up near Scandinavia this is not as cold for Europe as the classic negative NAO but would instead focus the cold more in Asia. However I do think some of that cold would likely be drawn eastward underneath the blocking high and could result in a cold, possibly snowy winter for Central and/or Southeastern Europe. The other thing to watch is that a blocking high near Scandinavia and the Barents-Kara Seas coupled with a deep Aleutian Low is ideal for transferring energy from the troposphere into the stratosphere forcing a PV disruption. Now I don’t believe the ECMWF forecast is a consequence of a polar vortex disruption but is strongly suggestive of one. And if one does occur, then I would expect an increased probability of a more classic negative NAO to follow.”
Yes, the observations are at odds with the official forecast, thus far, more consistent with what you’d expect from a snowy and cold winter’s onset.
That’s Joe Bastardi’s map, but they got the colors wrong.
The trades have just strengthened.
This in response to the renewed Peruvian upwelling.
So much for el Nino.
It’ll be the warmest La Nada on record
By the (il-)logic employed by the Left, if you disagree with NOAA’s winter forecast based on other reasons analyses then you probably deny the Apollo moon landings too.
Does anyone regularly compare NOAA’s 3 month outlooks with outcomes? Isn’t it amazing that models can calculate temperatures and climate for the next 100 years, but they can’t say with more than 75% probability that a mild winter might be in store and an El Nino might develop by the end of this year.
Numerous teleconnections at the moment and predicted developments into winter look similar to 2009/10 for USA and Europe.
One difference being Nino3.4 not at levels back then, although may still reach weak El Niño during first part of winter.
Reason being the sea temperatures down to 200m have been rising and will reach the surface over the next few weeks.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDYOC007.gif
SST’s favour high pressure semi-permanently positioning around Alaska/NW Canada and NW USA.
This would of course lead to milder air over western and southern parts with higher rainfall further south. For central and eastern parts of the USA with high pressure in that position would lead to more frequent Arctic blasts south leading to bitter cold and snowy periods at times.
I still think it is little early at this time because some of teleconnections may still change by time the winter starts for real.
“milder air over western and southern parts”
This should read, milder air over western and south western parts”
I think if the SOI index stays in positive territory from here on out that El Nino will be short circuited . I do not think that the warm sub- surface water will reach the surface if the SOI stays positive. Only once has the warm sub-surface water over the past 6 months been able to reach the surface and that was about 2 or 3 weeks ago.
Unless I’ve missed it, I don’t hear Bastardi equivocating about the el nino. I know him through years of subscriptions. if he were worried he’d let it be known to get out in front of it. My money’s on WeatherBell. Expect the el nino. Might even be a two year event (according to Joe)
Prediction means before the event as on forecasting, weatherbell put out winter forecast back on August and it looks spot on.
A “winter” forecast is “spot on” eh?
When today’s date is 20th October.
Truly alternate reality is this Blog.
Therefore we would be expecting something more like this below, than the temperature map shown at the top of this article.
https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2018-19-august-outlook
I think Joe Bastardi will fare much better with his forecast. Let’s see what happens…
I predict with high confidence that 2018 temperatures will be lower in 2019 and 2019 temperatures will be lower in 2020. No computer models required.
Roger that, it’s the quiet sun, stupid.
The bluer this image gets, the lower the TSI goes, and the colder it gets:
What does that mean Bob? How can you possibly think very tiny changes in TSI alone governs the whole climatic system? This is almost as bad as CO2.
By the way I sent the latest SOI 30 day data in response to your last post. -2.8. Check it out.
How many times and ways have I said TSI warming/cooling is a cumulative process?
I did refer to the exact same data, and also the two other sources for SOI, from BOM and NOAA, for the monthlies. We are both right. You can’t tell me I’m wrong for using the latest monthly data. You’re jumping on a short-term SOI change that may or may not hold.
I watch the daily TSI data, and it varies through the month during a solar rotation from a high point to a low point and I really can’t be sure what the month’s data or the 30d average is going to be halfway or less into the month, like you are sorta doing here with 30d SOI. Maybe at month’s end you’ll be right if it doesn’t go down again.
The recent bump in ocean temperatures followed the sub-solar point’s excursion over the equator at the equinox, where insolation (purple curve) maximized for the second time in the year:
http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/images/insolation_latitude.gif
As we get closer to the solstice under low TSI the El Nino could fizzle away from low energy because that little bump wasn’t a very strong or long push:
The central pacific ocean outgoing longwave radiation for Sept is still positive, meaning it’s cooling, not warming, as it did during the 2006 El Nino, the analog year I’m using.
SOI is neutral and ENSO will remain neutral. Surface temperature changes are too weak.
The Peruvian Current remains strong.
Whew!!! Just in time to save AGW. And if it doesn’t happen, no big deal. It’s 5 o’clock somewhere.
I find these forecast maps to be very confusing. The temperature map shows much of the country to be in area “40 to 50% likely to be warmer than normal”. That means the same to me as predicting these areas have a 50% or better chance of be at or below normal. Kinda seems like a heads I win, tails you lose prediction.
Excessive snowfall in the mid to high alpine mountains in the West on tap. Glaciers growing on the volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest. Snow, snow, and more snow. Skiers delight. Southwest Colorado will have an excellent ski season as will the Chugach, Teton, Wasatch and yes the Sierra. Cascades will be wet low and puking snow up high. Care to wager?
Above, near or below average!
I predict that the wind will come from the south, the east, the north or the west or somewhere in between tomorrow.
The next waves of Arctic air will reach the central US.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=epac×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
Bob Weber October 18, 2018 at 8:28 pm
How many times and ways have I said TSI warming/cooling is a cumulative process?
My reply
Yes you did say that which makes it more meaningful. I never said this is not a contributing factor . I just think there is more at work here then just TSI.
Where do you get the data for out going radiation ? Thanks
What I am seeing so far is that the jet stream is doing very deep loops and that will lead to both very cold temperatures and very warm temperatures and a miserable winter.
You are wrong, the pattern is as below.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/10/21/1200Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-114.43,52.65,515
See what’s happening in Hudson Bay.
http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/4km/r10_Hudson_Bay_ts_4km.png
‘A mild winter could be in store for much of the United States this winter according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.’
A weather forecast. From a “climate prediction center.” Do they ever make any climate predictions? Do they even know what climate means?
It is a climate propaganda center.
According to the JB gospel (and the MJO) it will indeed be very cold winter for about 50% of US with warmth in NW. I know who I believe.
“No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.”
— Brace yourselves. Global Warming articles and blurbs are coming!
For several days the solar activity is extremely low.
?time=1539972964000
Confusing weather and climate again?
You do not have to love the women, but without the women we would not be there.
And a universe without an observer is useless: What a universe if no one says “Hey, look, the universe!”
we watch the universe. Without women we would not be there.
Without women no universe.
https://www.google.at/search?q=senza+una+donna+no+women+no+cry&oq=senza+una+donna+no+women+no+cry&aqs=chrome.
Winter in North America is not joking.
