NASA: #HurricaneMichael intensifying – now 150 MPH winds at landfall, nearly Cat5

UPDATES BELOW

The latest GOES16 satellite closeup of the eye of Hurricane Michael at landfall.

Live Source here

This morning, it has further intensified and now stands on the threshold of a CAT5 storm. It would become Cat5 at 156mph sustained winds.

NASA: Max sustained winds in high-end Cat 4 have unfortunately continued to intensify, now at 150 MPH! Pressure down to 27.26″. ( GOES-East 30-sec vis imagery)

 

Source: https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/1050048660648710144

UPDATES:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1050051973972721664

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1050065771701948417

 

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October 10, 2018 8:59 am
Reply to  Anthony Watts
October 10, 2018 9:28 am

If it is not a poor coordinates tracking, I would guess it might be to do with the rate of updating (looking at its today’s back data), i.e. wind graphic appears to be updated every hour, while graphic for the storm centre marker might be updated more frequently.

NZ Willy
Reply to  vukcevic
October 10, 2018 11:27 am

So they model the wind speed from the temperature of the eye compared with the cold cloud tops?!? We know how that goes — while I’m not belittling the hurricane, I predict on-the-ground wind speed measurements will be significantly less than these model-driven predictions.

Simon
Reply to  NZ Willy
October 10, 2018 10:06 pm

If that’s how they do it, as along as they are consistent, what is the issue.

Reply to  Anthony Watts
October 10, 2018 10:00 am

looking at different altitudes the centre of storm marker is at fixed position while the eye of the storm is moving around quite a bit.

Reply to  Anthony Watts
October 10, 2018 1:31 pm

Mr Watts
Ventusky.com must have seen your comment and removed the centre of the storm marker

ebakanezir
Reply to  vukcevic
October 10, 2018 9:50 am

Sorry for the dumb question, but looking at the animated graphic makes me wonder, where does all the air go that is rushing toward the center? Does it flow out the top?

Reply to  ebakanezir
October 10, 2018 10:03 am

Yes, moves upwards
see graphic atcomment image

Greg
Reply to  ebakanezir
October 10, 2018 10:20 am

Where do you see air rushing towards the centre in animation? What you see looking down is the outflow.

Phil
Reply to  ebakanezir
October 10, 2018 1:13 pm

From https://hypertextbook.com/facts/2007/DmitriyGekhman.shtml quoting Beiser, Arthur. Schaum’s Outline of Applied Physics. McGraw-Hill, 2004.:

“At 100 °C and atmospheric pressure … the density of water is 1000 kg/m3, and the density of steam is 0.6 kg/m3.”

The intense rainfall is condensing water vapor. When water vapor condenses it occupies a lot less space than in the vapor phase, thus creating a vacuum. Although water vapor is not condensing at 100 °C, the relative densities shown above can give you an idea of the vacuum engine that is driving the hurricane. When starved of moisture, the hurricane dissipates.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  vukcevic
October 10, 2018 10:57 am

Better view here from GOES-16 (the new operational GOES-East).

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater_band.php?sat=G16&stormid=AL142018&band=11&length=12

Z
Reply to  vukcevic
October 10, 2018 1:57 pm

So that’s in MPH. Or. Km/H
May make a small difference

Reply to  vukcevic
October 10, 2018 6:05 pm

God save the Redneck Riviera!

Put your faith in prayer, and get the hell out of Dodge.

tweak
Reply to  ALLAN MACRAE
October 11, 2018 1:50 am

Using FLDOT data, I showed an exodus of 195 vehicles headed up SR 71 from Port St Joe area. Unless they crammed 16.5 people or more per vehicle, a lot of people rode it out.

Reply to  tweak
October 11, 2018 4:04 am

You can fit lots of people into the box of a pickup.

2hotel9
October 10, 2018 9:04 am

Running the Accuweather snow/ice/rain satellite radar composite and it is a really compact body. They least it as less than 60 miles out, sustained winds 145, gust 175 as of 11:20 CST. This is going to be a bad one.

Eric Simpson
Reply to  2hotel9
October 10, 2018 10:15 am

It’s normal to have big storms.

It’s been that way for centuries, with often 5 or even 7 major hurricanes hitting the US in one year (search Steven Goddard / Tony Heller for tons of posts on this, or input simply site:realclimatescience.com hurricanes or variations of that).

It’s NORMAL to have big storms. But with every single storm the leftists start screaming “climate change! climate change! climate change!” No, it’s normal to have devastating storms. They are proof of nothing abnormal.

2hotel9
Reply to  Eric Simpson
October 10, 2018 4:09 pm

Dude? I am just pointing out it is a bad one. Been through 9 hurricanes in my life, I know what they do.

meteorologist in research
Reply to  Eric Simpson
October 10, 2018 7:12 pm

There should be fewer hurricanes, but they should be stronger.

Simon
Reply to  meteorologist in research
October 10, 2018 10:10 pm

Correct. And my understanding is this is the strongest to hit this area in recorded history. And it is the speed of development that is interesting hurricane experts. Something that was raised during last years round of severe hurricanes.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Simon
October 10, 2018 10:56 pm

Why?

Simon
Reply to  Simon
October 11, 2018 10:06 am

Why what?

Johann Wundersamer
Reply to  Simon
October 13, 2018 6:18 pm

Simon,

Why “is [it] the speed of development that is interesting hurricane experts.”

– why not –

Carbon Bigfoot
Reply to  meteorologist in research
October 11, 2018 3:28 am

Meteorologist that works in research

Joe Bastardi who works in the real world would dispute that statement–see him at WeatherBell Analytics.
Has anyone seen the Allstate Insurance Commercials where the actor who portrayed the POTUS on TV Drama series 24 make a statement that (26) 500 YEAR EVENTS have occurred in the last TEN (10) YEARS? With the ten year drought in mind how is it he can justify that statement?
If this is world-wide? using this to sell insurance in the US seems disingenuous.

meteorologist in research
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot
October 13, 2018 10:11 am

Carbon Bigfoot – Mr Bastardi has apparently made up his mind. I haven’t. I don’t know how he’s so sure of his conclusions this early.

I haven’t worked in TV broadcasting since the 1980s.

2hotel9
Reply to  meteorologist in research
October 13, 2018 4:09 pm

Let me help you out! Its not complicated, humans are not causing climate to change, humans can not stop climate from changing. Climate changes, constantly. Get over yourself, you simply are not all that important.

meteorologist in research
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot
October 13, 2018 4:31 pm

2hotel9 – I never said any of that. Why are you so confused?

2hotel9
Reply to  meteorologist in research
October 13, 2018 4:37 pm

Really? Yet, looking at the facts humans are not causing the climate to change, and we can not stop it from changing. Period. Full stop.

Oop, there it is. Got proof otherwise? Roll it up in a dumpbed in front of my house and drop it off. Till then it is all b*llsh*t. A fake religion. A lie.

2hotel9
Reply to  meteorologist in research
October 13, 2018 6:07 pm

No confusion here, humans can not stop climate from changing and are not causing it to change. Crystal [pruned] clear.

meteorologist in research
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot
October 13, 2018 4:42 pm

What facts have convinced you?

meteorologist in research
Reply to  Carbon Bigfoot
October 13, 2018 7:59 pm

No facts, merely what you want to believe.

2hotel9
October 10, 2018 9:07 am

Bands of heavy rain into middle Alabama, already have high river levels there and Georgia. We still got a month to go of hurricane season.

Michael Jankowski
October 10, 2018 9:12 am

Models had the path correct from the start…failed miserably with the intensity. Think it was slower thsn projected, which allowed more time for intensification, but still…it was supposed to be a TS or Cat 1, then Cat 2, then Cat 3…now Cat 4 and possible 5, basically with those upgrades daily.

Reply to  Michael Jankowski
October 10, 2018 9:46 am

Just the opposite of Florence, which was supposed to be a Cat 4, but collapsed to a Cat 1, and the track veered off to the south.

Reply to  Michael Jankowski
October 10, 2018 10:49 am

Odd that the hurricane center reports sustained winds of 155 MPH and gusts of 175 MPH, yet Tyndall AFB reports maximum gusts of only 128 MPH and the eye has already passed directly overhead. Either the max wind field is very, very small or some serious over-estimations are going on.

David A
Reply to  co2isnotevil
October 10, 2018 11:52 am

The ground based recordings and observed damage to trees and buildings will likely reflect cat 2 to cat 3 at most. We will see if storm surge hit the 14′ predicted anywhere. It is not accurate to compare today’s storms with past storms before satellite surveillance and numerous air reconnaissance.

Reply to  David A
October 10, 2018 12:10 pm

Yes, the jet stream above is traveling at about 200 MPH, which by the same general criteria means that I must be in a Cat 5+ storm …

It’s similar to picking arbitrary starting points to establish a trend. We are already seeing the downside where more and more people are ignoring warnings knowing that they consistently over-estimate the land strength of storms. The resulting apathy is going to kill people when a legitimate cat5 storm is on the way. Is this what the alarmists are trying to achieve in order to justify their position?

David A
Reply to  co2isnotevil
October 10, 2018 12:07 pm

Not surprising. Expect ground speeds sustained of cat 1 or two and ground damage to reflect that. Comparing past hurricanes to today’s satellite tracked and frequent storm flight monitoring is simply not accurate. Going off of storm surge and land based damage is more accurate. This is a dangerous cat 2 or 3 hurricane based on earlier storms.

David A
Reply to  David A
October 10, 2018 1:40 pm

Sorry about the double post.

Ristvan
Reply to  co2isnotevil
October 10, 2018 12:18 pm

That was before the anemometer broke. And it broke bfore the eye made landfall just to the east.

David A
Reply to  Ristvan
October 10, 2018 12:59 pm

Rustivan, do you have a link to that?

Reply to  Ristvan
October 10, 2018 2:10 pm

I have frequently heard claims that anemometers broke before the worst wind arrived. Who on earth would install an anemometer in a hurricane zone that can’t operate during a hurricane? Sounds fishy…

Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
October 10, 2018 3:27 pm

It’s more likely that the power failed and there was insufficient battery backup and/or there was no network connection. If it’s broken, it’s inoperative, but if it’s inoperative, it’s not necessarily broken.

David A
Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
October 10, 2018 3:28 pm

Yes, yet it happens. Certainly the potential for solid objects to strike is there as well. Ristvan is usually an astute poster.

Would need to know the exact time of claimed breakage to compare to the storm’s rotation and location at that time.

Alan Robertson
October 10, 2018 9:13 am

Meanwhile, it’s been snowing in Raton and up through the Rockies and the Northern prairies.

2hotel9
Reply to  Alan Robertson
October 10, 2018 9:20 am

Here in western PA we are supposed to have a substantial cool down beginning Saturday. I, for one, am ready for it, been a miserable, rainy and humid summer and I am tired of cutting grass!

John Pickens
October 10, 2018 9:21 am

I will eat my hat if sustained wind speeds on land exceed 110mph anywhere in the path of the storm.
Wind speed at 1000 ft. just scares people unnecessarily. And when a big storm really arrives, they will think they “already lived through a Cat 4 storm, and it was no big deal”, and they will be in real danger.

Not that 110mph isn’t bad, but it isn’t as devastating. Now the flooding, that will be a real problem.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  John Pickens
October 10, 2018 9:46 am

John, they have taken to leaving the public with the aircraft measured speeds starting with Harvey. The alarmist has no scruples and requires monitoring constantly. How can they live with themselves? Deepening designer-brained lefty education over the last 3 generations is bearing sour fruit. Here in Ontario, they recently abolished homework. I’m busy teaching my grandson math, chem and physics.

Joe Crawford
Reply to  Gary Pearse
October 10, 2018 11:01 am

Back in the mid ’90s while sailing in the NW Caribbean we ran into a real character, A retired weather service guy, who’s job was to fly on hurricane hunters and estimate the wind speed by judging the sea state (i.e., the height of the waves and amount of spindrift). We suggested that flying through a hurricane at that low of an altitude must have been fun. He just smiled an poured himself another drink.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  John Pickens
October 11, 2018 4:25 am

John, you want fries with your hat?

Richard Barraclough
Reply to  John Pickens
October 12, 2018 2:31 am

How did the hat taste John Pickens?

“but it isn’t as devastating|”

Just the odd few houses ripped completely from their foundations

Taz1999
October 10, 2018 9:30 am

Closest buoy I can find is 61 kts gust 73

Taz1999
Reply to  Taz1999
October 10, 2018 9:34 am

29.26 in. Buoy number sgof1

taz1999
Reply to  Taz1999
October 10, 2018 2:05 pm

Remembering correctly the instrumentation blew off the NWS station in Miami at 140 mph during Andrew. I remember another set of instrumentation blowing off another NWS facility at 140 also. Coincidence just kind of stuck in my head. Kind of became my benchmark for CAT 4-5 storms. Maybe the instrumentation is more robust these days.

eyesonu
October 10, 2018 9:41 am

I checked NDBC buoy data earlier this morning for Station 42039 located 115 NM SSE of Pensacola. Last update was 4:50 CDT

Click on the icons on the left side of the data list for graphical output. Pressure dropped like a rock to a low of 28.87 so likely eye passed over it or very close. Max sustained wind ESE at 54.4 knots (@ 5 meters). Peak gust was 66 knots.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

F.Leghorn
October 10, 2018 9:46 am

I was in Panama City Florida during hurricane Camille. That was rough. But the surfing was great for several days before and after.

ossqss
October 10, 2018 9:47 am

Last bit of recon still coming in.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

John Pickens
Reply to  ossqss
October 10, 2018 9:51 am

Where is the 150mph sustained windspeed?

ossqss
Reply to  John Pickens
October 10, 2018 10:01 am

John, you can examine the graphs on the left side of the linked page above. I believe all surface data is extrapolated from flight level.

comment image

Greg S.
Reply to  ossqss
October 10, 2018 11:27 am

Extrapolated figures from flight level measurements/measurements at altitude are never in line with real world wind speed measurements from physical instruments at or very near surface level.

Mumbles McGuirck
Reply to  Greg S.
October 10, 2018 12:05 pm

There is the SFMR instrument on both NOAA and USAF aircraft. The last pass by the Air Force showed a SFMR surface wind of about 135 kt (155 mph). But we will have to wait for anemometer readings from Tyndal AFB and Panama City. Problem is, at these wind speeds, you often have instrument failures.
Also the Texas Tech team has set up a stick-net of portable wind instruments. But it takes a while for them to make data available.

Mumbles McGuirck
Reply to  Greg S.
October 10, 2018 1:04 pm

Just checked out Texas Tech’s Facebook page, and it seems they didn’t deploy for Hurricane Michael. Ouch! Here is their reason:

For those wondering, we will not be deploying for #Michael. A few days ago the intensity forecast had too many caveats and questions as to if it would meet our NE Gulf Coast deployment criteria. Once this became more clear yesterday, we felt with the forward speed of Michael we could not deploy safely under a compressed timeline. For us, safety always trumps science. Unfortunately these are the factors we must consider given the significant driving time between Lubbock and the Gulf Coast. Other factors also include personnel time and funding support for the program. Good luck, collect great data, and stay safe to the other research teams deploying!

ossqss
Reply to  John Pickens
October 10, 2018 10:06 am

And there is also the dropsonde data available on the same page.

garyh845
October 10, 2018 9:50 am

This is a fun site – live storm chasers. https://livestormchasing.com/map

Green dots are live video – Red are off-line. looks like only 2 of the storm chasers are on the hot side of this.

garyh845
Reply to  garyh845
October 10, 2018 10:20 am

Bret Adair’s live video – he’s on the SE side of the hurricane – very intense winds in this very moment.

Latitude
October 10, 2018 10:10 am

watch the weather channel live…..
No wonder people don’t take these storms serious and evacuate……
They have reporters in cars riding around, reporters on the beach, all over the place

ossqss
Reply to  Latitude
October 10, 2018 10:22 am

Yep, they are gearing up to do their climate change attribution meme also. I can only take a few minutes of the water closet channel….

Latitude
Reply to  ossqss
October 10, 2018 10:32 am

They do it every time…
Tell people evacuate or die….and then show them all the people standing around in the middle of it reporting it….

Latitude
Reply to  ossqss
October 10, 2018 10:40 am

I”m laughing at the girl TWC has reporting from Panama City Beach…
…and all the people walking around behind her

tweak
Reply to  Latitude
October 10, 2018 11:10 am

You mean the one that was marveling at the lines arcing above her head?

DCA
Reply to  Latitude
October 10, 2018 11:37 am

Why can’t their mics pick up the wind sound?

Tweak
Reply to  DCA
October 10, 2018 12:05 pm

Some of them have.

David Hart
October 10, 2018 10:30 am

Brett made a big mistake by leaving Port St. Joe which is protected by the Cape San Blas barrier island and heading back north towards Mexico Beach which has no protection. His latest video looks like he’s underwater….

Latitude
Reply to  David Hart
October 10, 2018 10:33 am

Mexico beach is the real ground zero

Joel O'Bryan
October 10, 2018 10:31 am

Send in the Clowns!!! Weather Clown Rockin’ Mike Seidel that is..

Mumbles McGuirck
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
October 10, 2018 12:08 pm

Maybe this time he won’t have to pretend. 😉

tweak
October 10, 2018 11:04 am

Can’t be a Cat 5. I don’t see the Field reporters screaming.

See - owe to Rich
October 10, 2018 11:06 am

It’s annoying the time lag for NWS web data. Viz: it is 1800Z now and the latest I can find for Tyndall AFB https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPAM.html is

10 10:56 E 41 G 66 1.13 Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy NA 77 77 100% NA 78 28.97 981.3

So, they had a gale force 8 there but I believe the 10:56 is CDT or 15:56Z, i.e 2 hours ago. This should be one of, if not the, windiest places in the NWS stations, so I’ll keep an eye on it.

Be great if we actually saw sustained hurricane speed there, but I’m not betting on it.

pflashgordon
October 10, 2018 11:24 am

I’ve searched many of the weather stations reporting on my Wunderground weather app, and I cannot find one station reporting sustained hurricane force winds, not even gusts above 74 mph. Most stations’ sustained winds are well under 50 mph. I looked near and far to the eyewall, east, NE, north, NW and west as it came ashore directly over Tyndall AFB. After eye passage, Tyndall is reporting 45 mph sustained wind. How can that many stations be that wrong?

Also, the few live webcams in Panama City Beach that are operating show moderate waves, beaches are visible, and there is little damage to beachfront wooden structures.

It seems that satellite and aircraft-borne storm estimates greatly exaggerate the real situation on the ground.

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  pflashgordon
October 10, 2018 11:50 am

pflashgordon: Actually Apalachicola, a bit further east, has had hurricane force gusts and a sustained wind close to Storm Force 11, despite its pressure 986mb being higher that Tyndall’s 981mb:

10 12:53 S 58 G 84 0.25 Heavy Rain and Windy BKN009 OVC015 81 NA NA NA 79 29.12 985.9 0.48

It’s worth keeping an eye [sic] on both of these, but they only seem to update hourly. Or do they just turn them off around hurricane time so the public who pay for them can’t get to see what’s actually happening?

John Pickens
Reply to  See - owe to Rich
October 10, 2018 12:03 pm

Apalachacola pressure minimum was 29.1″Hg at 1:30, Peak sustained winds at 1:18pm of 62mph, with gusts to 72mph. This is Tropical Storm category windspeeds.

Yet, at the same exact time, the NWS/NHC shows maximum sustained winds of 155mph with a rating of Cat 5 Hurricane.

This stinks to high heaven…

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  John Pickens
October 10, 2018 12:16 pm

John, yes it does.

Where do you get your data from? The NWS page I quoted for Tyndall, and likewise for Apalachicola, are not updating, lending support to my surmise that they get “turned off”.

I’m not a U.S. citizen, but if I were I’d be writing to my senator and submitting an FOIA request to see what the data really are for this hurricane, and why they are being suppressed?

Ryan Maue – you may read this thread: what is your take on all this?

Rich.

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  John Pickens
October 10, 2018 12:26 pm

John – hey, great website, thanks! Now bookmarked. And they let you turn off things in their cookies.

Tyndall peaked at 75kt sustained and 112kt gust. So, a nice Category 1 hurricane force, though did the eye pass over Tyndall, or was it windier elsewhere?

David A
Reply to  See - owe to Rich
October 10, 2018 1:44 pm

The eye passed straight through.

Bruce Cobb
October 10, 2018 11:24 am

Ok, all together now:
Michael blow the waves ashore, Hallejulah
Michael blow the waves ashore, Hallejulah
Too soon?

michael hart
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
October 11, 2018 12:21 am

I also have to share a first name with Michael Mann.

eyesonu
October 10, 2018 11:28 am

Perhaps the “models” need a little refining, or much more. Either that or the past few years hurricanes die down at the very sight of land or buoys. Solve the catastrophic damage of hurricane winds by installing buoys lining the shores and create a new Category scale to Category 8 or even 19! It will be unprecedented to have Category 19 hurricanes caused by Global Warming and of course CARBON! Even the heat is hiding in the deep ocean where there are no instruments. Catastrophe is afraid of the data!
Winning again!

Robertfromoz
Reply to  eyesonu
October 11, 2018 1:47 am

Bring back Ludicrous speed.

Kevin
October 10, 2018 12:12 pm

AP stroking for money:
“Scientists say global warming is responsible for more intense and more frequent extreme weather, such as storms, droughts, floods and fires. But without extensive study, they cannot directly link a single weather event to the changing climate.”
https://apnews.com/b4a51136559d44f589319ecfbf6f11a9
From the always truthful AP /sac

Petit Barde
October 10, 2018 12:14 pm

Hurricane Michael … Michael Mann ?

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Petit Barde
October 10, 2018 2:07 pm

Both blowhards: check!
Both not living up to their PR: check!
Both making promises they can’t keep: check!

ren
October 10, 2018 12:17 pm

Damages on the coast and floods will be huge.
comment image
My commiserations.

ren
Reply to  ren
October 10, 2018 12:35 pm

Current location of the fronts over US.
ttps://images.tinypic.pl/i/00972/njyw06qix7ki.png

ren
Reply to  ren
October 10, 2018 12:41 pm

Sorry.
comment image

ren
October 10, 2018 12:27 pm

“Major Hurricane Michael, an unprecedented storm, is slamming the Florida Panhandle as an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane. Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, shortly before 1 p.m. CDT Wednesday with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph.”

JR Port
Reply to  ren
October 10, 2018 1:07 pm

Utter nonsense…

Phil.
Reply to  JR Port
October 11, 2018 6:59 am

Really? I’m looking at aerial images of Mexico Beach and large areas of it are trashed!

David Hart
October 10, 2018 12:31 pm

FWIW: Right now there is only one storm chaser streaming and he’s heading east on US 98 through Panama City; it’s a mess.

JimG1
October 10, 2018 12:35 pm

Can’t find any hurricane force winds anywhere along the storm path. Looking on tv weather channel and on the computer and highest sustained wind I’ve seen so far is 63 mph, not even category 1. Where are they measuring these winds? Hype.

John Tillman
October 10, 2018 12:35 pm

Of course warm Gulf of Mexico water is blamed upon man-made “climate change”:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/turbocharged-michael-got-55-percent-stronger-1-day-163036830.html

ren
October 10, 2018 12:54 pm

Panama City in the eye of a hurricane.
comment image

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  ren
October 10, 2018 1:17 pm

OK, could be windier than Apalachicola. Thanks to John Pickens we have https://www.windfinder.com/report/lower_grand_lagoon_panama_city and winds still increasing and barometer falling as at noon local. But isn’t noon a little out of date?

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  See - owe to Rich
October 10, 2018 1:22 pm

Yes, 1:17pm of my comment refers to PDT I think, so it must be 3:17pm or 4:17pm now in Panama City. Perhaps the equipment has broken and we won’t see their maximum wind speeds. John Pickens whaddya think?

Any Weather Channel guys there?

John Pickens
Reply to  See - owe to Rich
October 10, 2018 2:00 pm

Looks like the data feed crapped out at 12:15pm local time. Sustained winds of 64mph at that time. I very much doubt it ever reached 110mph sustained, but we may never know from this weather station.

Joel O'Bryan
October 10, 2018 1:19 pm

The damage to Tyndall AFB will be enormous, very much like Homestead AFB, FL in 1992 after Andrew.
Hurricane Andrew wiped Homestead Florida off the map in late August 1992.

Any guesses on when the period of Rapid Intensification for Andrew occurred from this historical plot of Ap Index?
comment image

Geomagnetic Ap index spiked this past Monday Tuesday, not quite as high as forecast, but still spiked. That coincides with Hurricane Michael’s rapid intensification over these past 48 hours.

One can go back to 2017 and see the same sort of intensification for Hurricanes Irma and Maria coinciding with the whopper Ap spike as Maria was bearing down on Guadeloupe in the Lesser Antilles. Irma stayed an amazing Cat 5 for 5 days from Sept 5 to Sept 9 as Ap index hit it highest level of Solar Cycle 24.

Certainly an Ap spikes by themselves are not sufficient to bring on a major hurricane development as there are exceptions where Ap spikes don’t correlate with hurricane development. For example the 2015 hurricane season was a minimal Atlantic hurricane year, likely due to the very strong El Nino in the eastern equatorial Pacific through the hurricane season keeping the wind shear high over the tropical Atlantic.

So other factors must also be in place, such as water temps, broad pressure patterns, and maybe a neutral/near-neutral ENSO. But there does appear to be a role for Ap spikes assisting in shifting the atmospherics toward one favorable for hurricane development and intensification.

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
October 10, 2018 1:28 pm

Joel, you should do some statistics on that Ap index stuff, and prove a correlation. Otherwise it’s just anecdotal I fear.

Re the damage to Tyndall AFB, let’s see. Above I wrote “Tyndall peaked at 75kt sustained and 112kt gust”. So the sustained wind was probably OKish, but that is a big gust differential, and that 130mph really may have done some damage. Hope everyone was hunkered down, or absent.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  See - owe to Rich
October 10, 2018 1:51 pm

The big damage to Tyndall AFB will be the storm surge flooding in the housing and base facilities with salt water.
Tyndall AFB has a listed airfield elevation of 7 feet. That would be the ends of the main runway. Most of the main part of the air base is between 4 to 12 feet.

“At 2:12 pm EDT, the storm tide at Apalachicola, FL peaked at 7.72’ above high tide (Mean Higher High Water, or MHHW), which was the highest water level on record there (going back to 1967). Hurricane Dennis of 2005 (a 6.43’ storm tide) held the previous record. The highest storm surge at the site (height of the water above the normal tide) was 8.53′. NHC predicted a storm surge of 8 – 14 feet for this portion of the coast.

At 2:06 pm EDT, the storm tide at Panama City, FL peaked at 5.31’ above MHHW, which was the second highest water level on record. The record was 5.72’ above MHHW, set on October 4, 1995 during Hurricane Opal. The highest storm surge at the site (height of the water above the normal tide) was 5.62′. Records extend back to 1973 at the site.”

So, interpolating between 5.3 feet above MHHW at Panama City and 7.7 feet above MHHW at Apalachicola, puts Tyndall AFB at 6.5 feet above MHHW from Michael’s storm surge.

Scouser in AZ
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
October 11, 2018 12:37 am

I think the airport elevations are a few feet higher than you mention.

The FAA taxi diagram has specific heights – http://155.178.201.160/d-tpp/1811/00312AD.PDF

Scouser in AZ
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
October 11, 2018 12:40 am

I think a little higher per the FAA – http://155.178.201.160/d-tpp/1811/00312AD.PDF

bwegher
Reply to  See - owe to Rich
October 10, 2018 1:55 pm

Saffir-Simpson wind scale only uses sustained winds to define tropical storm categories.

John Pickens
Reply to  bwegher
October 10, 2018 2:03 pm

Yup, and it has to be 74mph sustained to be considered Cat 1 hurricane. I have seen no stations reporting this. What Michael is is a Tropical Storm at landfall. Fake News all day long…

tweak
Reply to  John Pickens
October 10, 2018 2:10 pm

Dunno, just saw a local TV twit intrviewing a fish that washed ashore…

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  John Pickens
October 10, 2018 2:30 pm

The pictures of structural and roof damage coming out suggest 110-115 mph sustained winds were present around Panama City. Cat 3-ish.

David A
Reply to  John Pickens
October 10, 2018 3:39 pm

There are pictures of what looks like cat 2 to cat 3 damage including some snapped ( not fell down) pine trees.
Yet I see no ground level signs of strong cat 4 on the ground. Highest storm surge so far reported is be low 8′

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
October 10, 2018 1:39 pm

The next named TC for 2018, Tropical Storm Nadine has just formed out in the eastern Atlantic development region. Currently Nadine’s max winds 63 MPH and 993 mb central pressure estimate at 12.6 N 31.6 W headed west-northwest, at least a 7-10 days out from any significant landfall.
And the next Ap spike is forecast for around 19 October. So “If” Nadine is still over favorable waters for strengthening, expect it to do so then. And in 9 days that could put it bearing down on Florida or into the Gulf of Mexico where the waters are still quite warm. Or she could just get steered off into the North Atlantic near Bermuda. Too early to tell her track.

ren
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
October 10, 2018 1:46 pm

The increased activity of the geomagnetic increases speed of the jet streams in the upper atmosphere.

ren
October 10, 2018 1:36 pm

Eye of the hurricane moves northeast.
South Carolina is threatened by flooding.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=wv-mid

bwegher
October 10, 2018 1:52 pm

Storm is past landfall, about over Tallahassee at 4.40 pm local time
No land based or offshore NDBC stations have recorded sustained winds reaching Category 1

Station SGOF1, Tyndall AFB tower, anemometer at 35 meters above sea level
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sgof1
61 knots maximum sustained at noon

Panama Beach station PCBF1 recorded 53 knots at 3.06 pm
Anemometer height 8.6 meters

Apalachicola station showed around 50 knots, but anemometer height under 10 meters
Another COOP station, 8728690 Apalachicola,using Tides and Currents site shows about 54 knots maximum
at around noon
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?id=8728690

National Weather Service at Tallahassee Int. Airport recorded maximum sustained winds in the 40 mph range while the real time radar was showing the eyewall directly over the airport.

John Pickens
October 10, 2018 2:13 pm

It is now 5:09pm EST, and the NWS/NHC website lists “Hurricane” Michael as a “Major” hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125mph. Yet, there are no ground stations reporting sustained winds of greater than 74mph. This storm landed as a Tropical Storm. Why is this happening?

Does anyone know of an actual report of a weather station in the effected area which reported anything near hurricane force sustained winds? I’ve been scanning websites, and I cannot find one.

This is a farce.

ren
Reply to  John Pickens
October 10, 2018 2:43 pm

“Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). A wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported
at the airport in Tallahassee, Florida. A sustained wind of 59 mph
(96 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h) was observed at a
University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site just north of St.
George Island, Florida.”
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/072339.shtml?

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  ren
October 10, 2018 2:57 pm

Yeah, well there they are using the word “wind” for gusts rather than sustained winds, which is a bit of a cheat, making people think they’ve been in a hurricane rather than a tropical storm. And they immediately throw in km/h to make it sound more scary.

ren
Reply to  See - owe to Rich
October 10, 2018 3:06 pm

You’re right. They write about gusts.

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  John Pickens
October 10, 2018 2:53 pm

Well, John, we saw upthread that Panama City stopped recording around 12:15pm when the sustained wind was close on 74mph, still apparently increasing, and with the barometer still diving. So I think we can be pretty sure the winds continued to increase. But up to what Category? It certainly would be nice to have solid data, I agree, but unlike some other hurricanes I have commented about, especially Sandy, I am reasonably persuaded that this was a landfalling hurricane.

ren
Reply to  John Pickens
October 10, 2018 2:55 pm

Reports from the Hurricane Hunter Air Force Reserve show an inflated wind speed.

Phil.
October 10, 2018 2:54 pm

Some severe wind damage has been recorded:

Jtom
Reply to  Phil.
October 10, 2018 4:01 pm

Shell structures for storage (like boats) don’t withstand much wind (and the boats look like they are still safely inside). The residential condo in the background looks unscathed.
I feel for those with damage, I’m sure a lot of roofs were damaged, but I drove the coast after both Camille and Katrina, and so far I haven’t seen anything approaching the devestation caused by those storms. I hope that continues to be the case.

Yooper
October 10, 2018 4:00 pm

I snowbird in PSJ so I know the area. Brett made a mistake by leaving Port St. Joe which is protected by St. Joe Bay and the Cape San Blas barrier Island. Mexico Beach has no protection, US 98 is 50 yards from the Gulf. His last video was not pretty, even if they made up to the second floor the house could easily have been undermined by the surge running back to the Gulf. Not good.

Tom in Florida
October 10, 2018 5:48 pm

When all you with your high and mighty opinions see the actual damage I hope you have the same guts to offer your apologies for being wrong.

JRF in Pensacola
Reply to  Tom in Florida
October 10, 2018 6:36 pm

Tom, your post came in while I was typing mine which should follow. Hope you were not affected.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  JRF in Pensacola
October 11, 2018 4:29 am

No, I am well south in Venice. But as all of us in Florida know, I would rather have them be wrong on the lesser side than be caught unprepared for what just happened. ABC news had the best live coverage and it was devastatingly awesome.

ossqss
October 10, 2018 6:30 pm

So here is the gust info from this storm as of a short time ago.

This was a 155 mph sustained wind storm as conveyed by the NHC. The AFB noted is right at the point of impact for this storm, and right on the water. What I am I missing with intensity?

https://mobile.twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1050178708928118784

JRF in Pensacola
October 10, 2018 6:33 pm

Pensacola dodged a bullet.

“Blessed are those that experience a NH Hurricane on the west side of the storm. And, woe to those to the east.”

Much will be made of Michael, deservedly so as the people in the affected areas will suffer from lack of power and all the comforts that electricity brings, possibly loss of water and sewage disposal, perhaps little food if not prepared, lack of communication services, maybe little access to medical help, exposure to the elements, flooding, the stress of losing much, if not all, of the things people treasure, maybe trauma from the loss of friends and relatives……get the picture? Its not the technical aspects that are important, its the damage that is caused. Fortunately, if that is the proper word, Michael affected a less populated area of our state but that’s little comfort to those that reside there.

Pensacola is similar to the Panama City area. Smaller, large military presence, coastal and, thus, exposed but we had not had a direct hit from a hurricane hit for decades until 1995 when Erin visited followed by a near miss from Opal. Mobile, AL was hit by Frederick in 1979 and Pensacola experienced some effects but the last hits were from the “Decade Storms in 1906, 1916 and 1926. What an eye-opener for the area as the collective historical memory had receded. Then, we went through the “eye” of Erin and Opal veered to the east at the last minute it seemed. Pensacola was hit again in 2004 from Ivan (we were in, or near, the east eyewall, an exciting experience) and again in 2005 from Dennis (we were in, or near, the west eyewall) and had a glancing blow from Katrina in 2006. Instantly in 1995 and then for a span of about 10 years the collective memory was re-awakened and reinforced several times! Our neighbors to the east will be experiencing that feeling now.

We have a large oak in the backyard, a LARGE oak. Ivan leaned it one way, Dennis back the opposite way, and Katrina straightened back up to the vertical. A natural weathervane. Funny how the mind works. I rate hurricane intensity at my house by how many days the power is out: Erin for 3.5 days (Cat 1 but a direct hit), Opal for 3.5 days (Cat 3 at landfall but read more below; stronger but not as close), Ivan for 9 days (Cat 3 and direct hit), Dennis for 3 days (Cat 3 but west side), Katrina for 1.5 days (Cat 3-5, Cat 3 at landfall but farther away from Pensacola), Michael for 0 days. However, in each of those cases there are people who were affected much more. lost much more including their lives. Its not the wind, pressure, etc. ratings; its the impact.

Opal was an interesting storm and I told my younger son, who lives to the east of Destin, to keep a close eye (no pun) on Michael as it reminded of Opal. As Opal was headed north, straight for Pensacola in 1995, it was designated a hurricane on October 2 and strengthened to a Cat 4 by October 4 fueled by unusually warm water thought to be associated with the Loop Current. As Michael was traversing nearly the same waters I told my son to watch for rapid strengthening which turned out to be the case.

Michael is not the first storm of this strength to hit the northern Gulf Coast. Camille (1969) was stronger, Katrina was devastating (a Cat 5 at one point) and Opal achieved a 155 mph winds before weakening to a Cat prior to landfall. But it is the strongest to hit the Florida panhandle, and as I said, any hurricane is a bad day if it comes to your house.

We prepared well prior to each of our hurricane visitors and got better at it each year. After Katrina in 2006 we installed a whole-house generator and hardened the house through FEMA’s Wind Mitigation Program which I highly recommend for anyone in hurricane country (and tornado country). We are only a few miles from the coast but at 80 feet MSL so storm surge and flooding are not an issue for us and surge/flooding are the major killers during these storms.

It took several years to recover from Ivan. Major bridges in the area were unusable. Beach areas were rearranged and had no services for months, tens of thousands of structure were destroyed and tree canopies were reduced by about 80%. Housing was in very short supply and home prices skyrocketed. A benefit: no insects! It took me eleven days to clear debris from the property but not a flying insect in sight. They were all blown north with the storm! But, they were back about 14 days later.

So, as the debate will rage about strength of a storm, remember the impact on people’s lives. As coastal development and population increases, the impacts will be greater, recovery costs greater (particularly with inflation) but, hopefully, development will be smarter. Our Panhandle, Big Bend and west Coast Florida neighbors will recover. Some faster than others. Some with life-changing memories. All with a new perspective on what is important. I’ve been through a number of hurricanes, even more tropical storms, and they are a marvelous and frightening display of power and deserve much respect. I know that many of you have as well or have experienced a tornado (I remember going through Grand Island, NE decades ago after the town was essentially wiped from the face of the planet), or earthquake (been there, too), or an explosion, fire or war. Leaves a mark.

Oh, a final comment, as for hurricanes: its weather, just weather.

Sorry for the wordy post.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  JRF in Pensacola
October 10, 2018 7:31 pm

Erin took out all the sand pines in my back yard with its slow approach and heavy rains. The trees just laid over, their root balls lifting out of the sand. Power out for 4 days. Then 2 months later Opal went right over my house in Navarre took off half the roof, dropped much of the sheet rock ceiling inside with insulation everywhere. Power out for 4-5 days. I love the beach and water, but I left Florida forever 6 months later (for permanent living) in June 1996.

JRF in Pensacola
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
October 10, 2018 8:35 pm

Yes, the trees had no been pruned for decades. Erin did it. A lot of debris for a lowly Cat 1. Glad you and family made it through.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  JRF in Pensacola
October 10, 2018 7:42 pm

On October 4, 1995 at 1200 GMT Opal hit a minimum central pressure of 919 mb. It was very briefly a Cat 4, but really just a solid Cat 3 at 12 hours before landfall. Then it hit some colder water as it moved north toward the panhandle and made landfall right over my house as a minimal Cat2. (Iwas stuck in 40 mile long I-10 parking lot about 20 miles outside Tallahassee. I spent the night in my 4Runner with my wife and 3 small dogs along with 50,000 neighbors.

Looking at this (see URL) Ap plot from 1994 (blue line), can you spot where Hurrican Opal hit her peak intensity?
comment image

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
October 10, 2018 7:49 pm

Correction That plot is from 1995 (not 1994), errr. (I miss edit.)

Reply to  JRF in Pensacola
October 10, 2018 8:30 pm

Yes if this storm had hit a little further west, the strong devastation could have hit Panama City. and there would have been Mucho Devastation there like what happened to Mexico Beach, which is much less populated. thankfully. And if hit further to the east Tallahassee would have been hit harder…etc.

Gerald Machnee
October 10, 2018 6:44 pm

CNN has already declared that global warming caused higher water temps and therefore stronger hurricane.
Surprise!

Reply to  Gerald Machnee
October 10, 2018 8:36 pm

Been watching CNN reporting all day and they keep repeating that this is what we can expect because of climate change. And it is Climate Change as a matter of fact.
CNN is the only news channel I get on Dish TV here in Mexico, – that is in English…that’s why CNN.

Reply to  J Philip Peterson
October 11, 2018 8:17 am

Maybe you should get a different satellite TV provider…

Clearly, the Gulf of Mexico is HOT at this time of year. This is normal, and can cause hurricane strengthening. The SST has increased 0.03°C so far from CAGW? that is clearly not enough to have an effect on hurricanes. CNN is FAKE news.

DrMOS
October 10, 2018 8:32 pm

Keep in mind that the NHC uses a 1-minute time average for their sustained winds. Observation stations use a 2-minute time average for computation of sustained wind. That can result in a significant difference between what NHC reports vs. what observation stations report.

Richard
October 10, 2018 9:52 pm

This is not a “natural disaster” according to CNN and according to them, it is “dangerous” to talk about it in such a way. Much more dangerous to call it a natural disaster than the hurricane itself.

“”Hurricane Michael isn’t a truly “natural disaster.”

Neither was Harvey in Houston.
Nor Maria in Puerto Rico.
Yet we continue to use that term.
Doing so — especially in the era of climate change — is misleading if not dangerous, according to several disaster experts and climate scientists I reached by phone and on Twitter.”

Coach Springer
Reply to  Richard
October 11, 2018 7:25 am

Climate denial kills? Thank you, Mayor De Blasio.

Question: If there have been several other Cat 4 hurricanes to hit this one little area of FL since 1886, which ones were natural, which were unnatural and why? Follow-up: Before 1886, what makes you think there were no hurricanes of similar and greater magnitude?

Natural disasters aren’t disastrous enough?

ren
October 10, 2018 11:03 pm

The cold front will cause heavy rainfall in the east of the US.
comment image

john
October 11, 2018 6:57 am

Why do I not see much of anything on nullschoolearth?

Coach Springer
October 11, 2018 7:28 am

The human mind rejects disaster and mistakenly regards it all as “unnatural.” Natural disasters are natural and normal.

u.k.(us)
October 11, 2018 1:29 pm

I have to say that the Weather Channel did a really good job of covering the hurricane.

The live feeds were constantly checking to make sure their info was correct.
Any Faux Pas was almost instantly corrected by the sleep deprived reporter.
Pretty good stuff.

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