UAH: Globally, the coolest September in the last 10 years.

From Dr. Roy Spencer:

UAH Global Temperature Update for September, 2018: +0.14 deg. C

Globally, the coolest September in the last 10 years.

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for September, 2018 was +0.14 deg. C, down a little from +0.19 deg. C in August:

Global area-averaged lower tropospheric temperature anomalies (departures from 30-year calendar monthly means, 1981-2010). The 13-month centered average is meant to give an indication of the lower frequency variations in the data; the choice of 13 months is somewhat arbitrary… an odd number of months allows centered plotting on months with no time lag between the two plotted time series. The inclusion of two of the same calendar months on the ends of the 13 month averaging period causes no issues with interpretation because the seasonal temperature cycle has been removed, and so has the distinction between calendar months.

This was the coolest September in the last 10 years in the global average.

Some regional LT departures from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 21 months are:

2017 01 +0.33 +0.32 +0.34 +0.10 +0.28 +0.95 +1.22
2017 02 +0.39 +0.58 +0.20 +0.08 +2.16 +1.33 +0.21
2017 03 +0.23 +0.37 +0.09 +0.06 +1.21 +1.24 +0.98
2017 04 +0.28 +0.29 +0.26 +0.22 +0.90 +0.23 +0.40
2017 05 +0.45 +0.40 +0.49 +0.41 +0.11 +0.21 +0.06
2017 06 +0.22 +0.33 +0.10 +0.39 +0.51 +0.10 +0.34
2017 07 +0.29 +0.31 +0.28 +0.51 +0.61 -0.27 +1.03
2017 08 +0.41 +0.40 +0.42 +0.46 -0.54 +0.49 +0.78
2017 09 +0.54 +0.51 +0.57 +0.54 +0.29 +1.06 +0.60
2017 10 +0.63 +0.67 +0.59 +0.47 +1.21 +0.83 +0.86
2017 11 +0.36 +0.34 +0.38 +0.27 +1.35 +0.68 -0.12
2017 12 +0.42 +0.50 +0.33 +0.26 +0.45 +1.37 +0.36
2018 01 +0.26 +0.46 +0.06 -0.11 +0.59 +1.36 +0.42
2018 02 +0.20 +0.25 +0.16 +0.03 +0.92 +1.19 +0.18
2018 03 +0.25 +0.40 +0.10 +0.07 -0.32 -0.33 +0.59
2018 04 +0.21 +0.31 +0.11 -0.12 0.00 +1.02 +0.69
2018 05 +0.18 +0.41 -0.05 +0.03 +1.93 +0.18 -0.40
2018 06 +0.21 +0.38 +0.04 +0.12 +1.19 +0.83 -0.55
2018 07 +0.32 +0.42 +0.21 +0.29 +0.51 +0.29 +1.37
2018 08 +0.19 +0.21 +0.17 +0.12 +0.06 +0.09 +0.25
2018 09 +0.14 +0.15 +0.14 +0.24 +0.88 +0.21 +0.18

The linear temperature trend of the global average lower tropospheric temperature anomalies from January 1979 through September 2018 remains at +0.13 C/decade.

The UAH LT global anomaly image for September, 2018 should be available in the next few days here.

The new Version 6 files should also be updated at that time, and are located here:

Lower Troposphere:
Lower Stratosphere:

97 thoughts on “UAH: Globally, the coolest September in the last 10 years.

  1. Never mind we all know that the promised heat is just hiding somewhere. Keep the money coming , we have so much research to do to save the planet.


  2. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAgh. The only global temperature chart that both sides trust and it still shows as a trend of + 1.3 C per century. Just our skeptic unluck that the satellite record started off in a cool period. It looks like the alarmists will be able to avoid admitting defeat for a while yet. However if it ever ends up in the blue again (below 0 anomaly) the alarmists are busted. I am betting that Mann and friends are working like hell to get Spencer and Christy’s funding cut off.

    • Just redid my calcs on CO2 doubling. At a CO2 net increase of 0.5 % per year, it will take 139 years from 1979 to double the CO2 from 340 to 680ppm. That means we have about 100 years left to reach that doubling point. Based on UAH temperature trend, we have increased 0.52 C since 1979. Another 100 years will add on 1.3C. That will take us to 1.82 C increase by 2118. Living in a cold country like Canada, my living descendants will thank me on my gravestone that I fought this fraud all the way so they werent energied to poverty and could thus enjoy a temperature increase of 1.82C in the year 2118 from it was in 1979. Of course we skeptics dont think the increase will be that high given all the colder predictions of an inactive sun for the coming decades. But we are allowed to hope for this increase for everyone living in Canada in 2118. I am sure that there are lots of other folks in places of the world that would like to be a little warmer as well. The above analysis actually assumes the warmists are correct and that CO2 will cause this warming. Now I am actually starting to root for global warming even though the skeptic in me tells me, it isnt true and that CO2 is innocent of all charges.

      • No way will your descendants get a temperature increase of 1.8C. Kind thought though. Atmospheric warming will trail ocean warming. The top layer of the oceans will not be warming by 1.8C within the next century; so neither will the planet’s surface. I applied my Common Sense Model™ of climate to arrive at this scientific ‘projection’.

      • Alan, I hope your anticipated temperature for Canada comes true. I have read several comments about 80% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the USA border and therefore this anticipated increase might allow Canadians to spread out a little. When you fly over the northern third of Canada you are struck by how immense and uninhabited it is. When you work there you are impressed by how big the mosquitos are (summer only).

      • “Now I am actually starting to root for global warming even though the skeptic in me tells me, it isnt true and that CO2 is innocent of all charges.”

        CO2 ‘likes beer. CO2 has always liked beer, I was raped by CO2 40 years ago as a child but I can no longer stay silent. I feel it is my public duty to come forward.

        • Well, you can make all kinds of allegations against CO2 and that is fine. But if you don’t have any witnesses or any evidence or a police report, then you don’t have a case. And under our system of laws, CO2 is entitled to the presumption of innocence, just like any other greenhouse gas.

          • I’ve just remembered that I was at another party in about 1980 or 1984 ( I think ) where I was gang raped by a whole roomful of greenhouses gases and I’m sure that CO2 was among them. They were all hanging around outside the door. I remember how hot it was.

            I am now scared of flying ( except when giving evidence or doing polygraph tests ) because I can not stand the thought of being surrounded by GHGs and I have heard that there are more and more of them in the atmosphere now.

    • The alarmists know they have no case unless the temperature rise will be catastrophic. They used to postulate a tipping point beyond which positive feedback would result in runaway global warming. The Medieval Warm Period was a problem because it showed that modern temperatures were not unprecedented. Indeed, it showed that we didn’t have to worry about a tipping point.

      The alarmists wanted to get rid of the MWP. link Dr. Mann’s hockey stick was a transparent attempt to do that.

      If it can be shown that the global temperature will rise only 1.3 degrees in a century, the alarmists know the jig will be up.

    • Try asking a warmunist why they have their baseline temperature in the Little Ice Age, the coldest period in the last 8000 years.

      • That’s their go-to strategy – start your measurements in a cold period, end them in a warmer period, declare imminent catastrophe if we don’t do what they say. Rinse, re-lather, and repeat as often as needed.

        • Or the reverse, for Arctic sea ice.

          Start near the high for the century, then go alarmist over perfectly natural decline therefrom. The problem with that strategy is that in 30 years or so, the ice will start growing again, as indeed it has done since 2012.

    • Really shouldn’t use a linear trend for data that is extremely noisy. If you use only the years and months where the noise is minimal you see this.

      1980-81 14.4 C (58.0F) -.06C
      1990….. 14.5 C (58.1F) .01C
      1995-96 14.6 C (58.2F) .08C
      2001-02 14.7 C (58.4F) .18C
      2007….. 14.7 C (58.3F) .15C
      2014….. 14.7 C (58.4F) .18C
      2018….. 14.7 C (58.4F) .20C

      A value of .26 C over nearly 4 decades cuts the trend in half. Not only that but we also know there was no warming going back 40 years prior to 1980 even in the highly manipulated surface data. That halves the trend yet again. Finally, to make it even more ridiculous, all of the warming occurred between 1980-1998.

    • What Canadian weather is like at 400 ppm:

      “But all that snow meant two separate weather records were broken in the city. Environment Canada said the 32.8 centimetres of snow that fell in Calgary Tuesday shattered the Oct. 2 snowfall record of 4.6 centimetres set in 1954. And the snow also broke the record for one day in October, which was 30 centimetres set in 1914.”

      We’ve never seen anything like it. Except maybe around 300 ppm.

    • If that happens scientists, businessmen, farmers, investors, commodity traders, politicians, average American citizens in the private sector would be happy to offer him support. Perhaps AW/ WUWT could put together an article based on reader suggestions with Plan B ideas to fund Spencer and Christie should they ever lose Federal funding. I can think of one or two ideas to monetise the data UAH offers gratis.

  3. It can’t be cooler in September, October, or any other month. It must be fake data. Everything is getting hotter, faster, worse, and rottener than ever before. Mutant mosquitos, and a whole lot more are going to kill us if the heat waves don’t. That’s what McKibben, Gore, Hansen, Gov. Moonbeam, and 97% of their acolytes say, so it must be true.

  4. One of the disadvantages with having a simple mind , such as mine, is that you look at the chart , mentally subtract the temporary negative effects of volcanoes (Chinon and Pintaubo) , the positive effects of El Ninos and end up with a graph that shows an anomaly trend of 0 +/- 0.1 C.
    This then irritates enormously my simple mind because I think of the billions being wasted on climate alarmism that could instead have been invested in solving disease, hunger , homelessness and the deteriorating infrastructure of our many cities.

    • I see no trend, a step change and then no trend. Seems to me that something kicked the climate out of one state in 1999, and since then it’s been in a slightly different state. Perhaps warring against itself in a somewhat turbulent way.

    • …..Not to mention relieving some of the poverty that is currently being caused by excessive spending and the increasingly exorbitant costs of governments’ waste in most Western nations.

    • I too see no trend. None. What we are seeing, IMHO, is measurement artifact. ENSO is acting as a kind of calibration event – that we can see a bit of an uptick during El Nino gives some credence to the satellite measurement – that with close correlation to balloon – radiosonde data.

      But look at the Y-axis. Tenths of a degree. Beware of noise and artifact when resolution is tuned high. So what I see is noise about some mean. It’s nothing to worry about; but interesting in this era of space exploration that we can credibly measure temperature on a global basis.

      To me, these measurements of earth atmospheric temperature from space occupy a parameter space somewhere between cute and miraculous; and all they show me, a casual observer, is that occasionally the ocean burps up heat; the instruments have a slight uptick; then return to noise about a mean.

      • If only OBSERVATIONS were used by so-called “climate scientists” we wouldn’t be in this mess of The Invocation of Human-Induced Climate Catastrophe.

        But then, as the saying goes (and I’m paraphrasing), “It is difficult for a man to understand something if his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

  5. It is wrong to go to local scale, but what the heck, here are 3 stations around my home town of Melbourne Australia, showing the months of 2018 compared to the long term means of those months, for Tmin, the minimum temperatures. Remember winter here is summer in USA and Britain, so we have come through winter and are now in early spring.
    Many claim that there is a global warming effect that can be seen over the years as warming of Tmin. That might or might not be so, but the rate of cooling of Tmin here is rather large.
    Please do not do a linear extrapolation to 2050 or 2100 like some alarmists might.

    • The above table shows the Australian anomaly to be + .18C.
      Not much to write home about.
      BOM is forcasting average rainfall for NSW in the next two months.
      Perhaps armageddon is delayed.

  6. “UAH: Globally, the coolest September in the last 10 years.”

    Ya think? More like 30 years in some places. It just goes to show how quickly things can go south with a trend. Of course, this is just weather and Robsy Waves in the jet stream as a result of other long term cyclical features of the climate.

  7. Why start at 1979? Because that was the coolest point in recent history! Go back further, and you will see there has been no trend in rising temperature!

  8. Sun is taking a rest, it may be a long one, and there were few volcanic eruptions recently, there is a degree of an indirect correlation between long solar minima and global volcanic eruptions (not proven but it is occasionally suggested that the solar system interactions are responsible for both).

    • Yes Vukcevic, I read your story here few years ago, there was graph volcanic activity versus solar activity and volcanic activity versus ice age state, plus dust content in atmosphere. From this point I was watching low solar activity and waiting for increase in volcanic activity and surprise, it came..

      Btw. recently I got idea. Big stone arcs on Earth. Like Rainbow Bridge in Utah. Their shape is totally same as shape of Sun Corona magnetic loops. They are formed by same process, magnetism.
      When lava is molten, it is shaped to loops by magnetisms. Some of them are soldified and keeping their shape forever.
      This just shows how magnetic activity of Sun is related to volcanic activity on Earth.

      • Peter: Nice idea but… Rainbow bridge is composed of sedimentary rock (specifically the Navajo Sandstone) and was carved by water. Magnetism (or perhaps you were thinking of “magmatism”?) had nothing to do with it.

          • Arches are caused by freeze-thaw effects, salt, rain, and the type of sandstone. Bridges caused by the above, plus erosion by streams which may be dry 90% of the time.

            Both occur largely in strata resulting from eolian deposits, such as Navajo and Wingate sandstones in the Southern Utah area.

          • It was during my undergrad years at the U of Utah (late ’60’s – early ’70’s) that our cohort developed the ultimate theory that could explain *****EVERYTHING***** geological. We called it the “Theory of Universal Glaciation”, and that it took care of every geological question or problem. Universal Glaciation explains everything:

            For example: red beds (a lot in Utah are Triassic/Jurassic): as the glaciers advanced, they ran over all the existing fauna, and squeezed the blood out of them, leaving the red stain in the rock.

            Plate Tectonics/Continental Drift: As the glaciers receded, they sucked into the North Pole, and fell UNDER the continents, so now the continents are ‘sliding’ around on the ice, bumping into each other, and what-not.

            So, Dr. Duke, leave us NOT confuse the issue with FACTS!!!!! Leave a great (and obviously plausible, self-evident) theory alone. Universal Glaciation and Magmatic Sandstone Arches will require many, MANY billions of research dollars and grants, employing generations of grad students and their dissertation committees. Dr. Peter and I shall need thousands of support staff to properly educate the media, academe, our peers, the public; not to mention the necessity of forming a UN committee to keep track of and report on the advancements of our Theories: isn’t it obvious that we need a UGAMSAT right away? I certainly hope you’ll sign on, and support this VITAL research right away!



  9. I would love to see an article that provides an animated graph through it’s different “adjusted” versions.

    I believe this would be very illuminating. For each global temp record. Then a finale showing V1 to V6 or whatever latest version is, when the decline got erased, the present & recent past got warmed up and the history got cooled down.

    Can anyone do that for me or at least point me to the data so I can collate in several sheets of Excel?

    • I poked around the UAH file server. Here is what I came up with.
      UAH TLT version 5.5
      Scroll all the way down to the bottom for the data file.

      UAH TLT version 5.6
      Again, the data file is down the bottom. Also note the README files at the top. It is a change log for the work in progress and the versions. It is technical and goes on about inter-satellite calibrations and such and estimates changes version-to-version of ~.001 degree/decade and the like. Actually, it is an interesting read.

      You already know where to get version 6.0
      To see if there are earlier versions available, you might surf over to Roy Spencer’s web site and get his email addr. Then you can ask him directly.

  10. Yet in the Tampa area it has been the warmest September ever. Now, I understand that the official temperature is taken at Tampa International where major renovations have been taking place for quite a while now. And that the airport is a lot larger than ever before. So one has to wonder how it is possible to compare temps from the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s etc when the area is not comparable.

    • A weakening Gulf Stream that normally exports to Europe the Carribean warm water means I guess that it hangs around Florida instead. Trump’s to blame of course for all those trade tariffs.

      • Riiiiight! Just like Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Extortion and just like that we get Harvey one summer and Florence the next. Pretty little country you got heah. It’d be a shame if anything was to happen to it. /sarc

    • And there, in a nutshell, is why nobody should be in a panic over “climate change” – not only isn’t there anything alarming going on, but the direction of the “adjustments” – recent temperatures UP, older temperatures DOWN – are exactly the REVERSE of what any reasonable person would think they should be, if they knew about it and were bothered to think about it.

      When considering the different environments the original raw temperature readings were taken in, the non-climate differences are always “more rural/less developed” to “less rural/more developed,” meaning any “adjustments” should be exactly opposite what they have been – older readings higher (relative to newer readings) and newer readings lower (relative to older readings).

  11. HOTTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD — EVER — among Septembers where Live Cattle and Lean Hog futures were both in decline, a Lady Gaga film box office opening was competing with a Marvel Comics production and Mueller sold a number of fire hydrant flange replacement kits that has at least two representations as a sum of two cubes. (Note: September futures data extrapolated from October model projection)

  12. They are all such clowns……with what little data they have….as far as they know, now could be the normal

    and who decided that a totally iced over arctic was normal in the first place…
    …all the animals that depend on open water to breathe certainly didn’t

  13. This UAH graph indicates global warming isn’t doing anything CLOSE to what the desk warriors in 1998 predicted. Yes, granted 1998 caused concern. But at least 4 entities profit from doomsday scenarios:
    1) the federal government well-paid desk warriors
    2) third world countries looking for CO2 money distribution to them
    3) subsidized green companies
    4) anthro global warming “scientists” on the payroll
    5) the democrat party over-pushing the issue, for the MONEY angles in 1,2,3,4

  14. I think UAH’s September 0.14C marks the end of cooling from a weak La Niña cooling cycle, and will start increasing from October as we switch to a weak El Niño cycle.

    By end 2020, we’re due for a strong cold La Niña cycle to start, which will coincide with the PDO/AMO/NAO all in or near the start of their respective 30-year cool cycles, and the start of a 50-year Grand Solar Minimum cycle. Oh, my..

    With all the major seismic activity going on around the world, I also think a VEI 5+ volcanic event will also soon occur, which will add to global cooling.

    In about 5 years from now, anyone even mentioning CAGW will be giggled at.

    • I don’t know where you see a weak La Niña. The NINO3.4 index has been solidly above 0 since June 2018 and most recently was threatening to break the 0.5 barrier into El Niño territory. Based on the slope of the line, it’s probably going to get there next month.

      • The lag in atmospheric response to ENSO is up to 6 months so this is the last bit of cooling from the weak El Nino at the beginning of the year, perhaps.

      • D.J-san:

        Nino3.4 index just hit 0.5C last week and will continue a rising trend for a year.

        Ocean temps for top 150 meters seem to indicate a weak El Niño cycle.

        We’re due for a strong and cold La Niña cycle after the current El Niño runs its cycle as we haven’t had strong one one for about 10 years.

        • Uhhhh, no:

          “I think UAH’s September 0.14C marks the end of cooling from a weak La Niña cooling cycle, and will start increasing from October as we switch to a weak El Niño cycle.”

          He’s claiming we are in a weak La Niña NOW; we are almost in an El Niño NOW. Last weekly value for NINIO3.4: 0.49; El Niño threshold: 0.50.

  15. Here’s something I found that is quite informative. Sept 1996 and Sept 2018 are very similar in many ways.

    Both are ENSO neutral coming off of La Nina winters.
    Both are near solar minimums.
    Both are during +PDO conditions and +AMO conditions.

    Between these months ~40% of all human CO2 emissions occurred (360-410 ppm).

    So what has all this extra CO2 created in terms of warming? 0.00 None, nada, zip, zero, nil, nothing. Yup, both have exactly the same anomaly of 0.14. No warming at all in 22 years.

  16. Atmospheric CO2 ppm ….. verses …. global average lower tropospheric temperatures

    Dr. Roy Spencer’s graph of “global average lower tropospheric temperatures” for the past 39 years, to wit:

    And if one compares the above plotted temperatures between 2008 and 2018 ….. to NOAA’s measured CO2 ppm quantity as defined below, they would be hard pressed to “show” association or correlation between the two data sets, to wit:

    Excerpted NOAA ESRL DATA
    year ..mth ………… atmospheric ppm
    2008 5 2008.375 388.54
    2009 5 2009.375 390.14
    2010 5 2010.375 393.00
    2011 5 2011.375 394.19
    2012 5 2012.375 396.74
    2013 5 2013.375 399.78
    2014 5 2014.375 401.78
    2015 5 2015.375 403.96
    2016 5 2016.375 407.70
    2017 5 2017.375 409.65
    2018 5 2018.375 411.24

    According to the above Mauna Loa CO2 record, the quantity of CO2 in earth’s atmosphere increased by 22.7 ppm ……. during the ten (10) year period from May 2008 until May 2018.

    Whereas Dr. Spencer’s global average lower tropospheric temperatures “bounce” up n’ down, ….. like a basketball being dribbled, ……. during the same ten (10) year period from 2008 thru 2018.

    Thus, it should be obvious to most everyone, that near-surface air temperatures have no measurable effect on increases or decreases in atmospheric CO2 ppm quantities.

    And neither does the “green-growing” or “microbial-decomposing” biomass of the Northern Hemisphere.

  17. Yeah, but, but, but — it’s still 0.14C above average! That just has to be at the point of no return, doesn’t it? I mean, 97% of (fill in the blank) couldn’t be wrong!

    • All we have to do is take a hint from the adjusters and change the average, which will happen in 2020, I presume.

      • Many of the anomaly numbers/graphs we see STILL use the 1970-2000 30-yr norms because the 1980-2010 norms wouldn’t look as bad.

  18. Give it time. The Roman Empire did not fall in a few months. The Green Political Dynasty will be nicked and picked all the way down below the 1970s cool start to the satellite record. The only question is whether another over reach administration will come along during that decline to bet on the opposite outcome based on polling data and media influence.

  19. To effectively put an end to AGW nonsense we need average global temperatures to fall to around -.40c from the 1981-2010 means.

    In the meantime there has been no further global warming. In fact the trend in global temperatures is down for the last few years not up.

  20. El Nino finally seems to be developing with a moderate warm pool to work with. This will probably stall the cooling long enough to keep the CACA meme alive for another year.

  21. OBVIOUSLY fake news. It was very warm many times here in Toronto so there is still global warming. Toronto IS the center of the universe. Just ask anyone from here.

    Ok, I also had to have the furnace on the same week I had the air conditioning.

    Is it too late to change my rant from global warming to climate change? Because its changing very often now…

    (do I have to actually include a /sarc tag?)

  22. the temperature anomaly for the lower 48 is 0.88, versus 0.14 globally. This may explain all of the hysteria this past summer over heat and wildfires.
    The lower 48 anomaly has much greater variance than the global anomaly, of course. When temps in the US are high, the screaming and activism are intense. When the US swings to low temps, they are sleeping off their hysteria

  23. Not that I’ve read the comments yet, but…

    “The linear temperature trend of the global average lower tropospheric temperature anomalies from January 1979 through September 2018 remains at +0.13 C/decade.”

    Which basically means there is no warming since the (modern) satellite records began in 1979 (an unusually cold period at that). Because nobody could convince me that the temperature records from any source have error bars smaller than 0.13 C, which means the supposed warming, like it is for the whole of the instrument temperature record, is within the range of errors in what is laughingly called “data.”

    • “… nobody could convince me that the temperature records from any source have error bars smaller than 0.13 C…”

      In fact the error bars are much smaller than 0.13 C over that period. The warming in UAH is lower than all the other main global temperature data sets, including the other main satellite TLT set, RSS (formerly the darling of readers here), but there is still a clear and statistically significant warming trend in UAH since 1979; currently 0.127 ±0.058 °C/decade (2σ) since 1979:

      The ‘best estimate’ global warming in UAH TLT since 1979 is therefore +0.51°C. By contrast, in RSS TLT the best estimate warming since 1979 is 0.78°C, while in the land-based temperature data set produced by GISS it’s 0.68°C.

  24. The divergence between the UAH and RSS TLT monthly temperature anomalies for September 2018 is one of the largest for any month on record. Both set to UAH’s preferred 1981-2010 anomaly base, UAH is 0.14 C against 0.35 C in RSS. The divergence between the 2 data sets, which process information from more or less the same sources, has been pronounced since 2001 and is increasing at a rate of 0.06 C per decade. At least one of these two producers is wrong. RSS is in much better agreement with the surface data since 2001.

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