Winter chill seems to be getting a head start this year
Last night the temperature at weather station Twenthe (near Enschede) dropped to -1.5 degrees.It has not been that cold in September since 1971. That year, the weather stations Soesterberg and Winterswijk recorded minimum temperatures of -2.2 and -2.4 degrees on 16 September.
Other places in the east and south also saw frost. In Hupsel (Achterhoek) and Woensdrecht (Brabant) the temperature dropped to -0.8 degrees and in Eindhoven to -0.9 degrees. At the Brabant weather stations Volkel and Gilze-Rijen it was -0.3 and -0.4 degrees respectively. In Ell (Midden-Limburg) -0.5 degrees and Herwijnen (River area) -0.3 degrees. De Bilt saw -0.1 degree, the first official frost of this autumn . Frost was also measured on the Veluwe and Utrechtse Heuvelrug.
(Temperatures in Celsius.)
Koudste septembernacht in 47 jaar – veel plaatsen vorst afgelopen nacht
https://nieuws.weeronline.nl/30-9-2018-koudste-septembernacht-in-47-jaar/
Thanks to Job Koolmoes for this link (viua Iceagenow.com)
That seems le a very small and very waterlogged university, or a very flooded church.
Perhaps it is s duck house.
A posh Stevenson screen ???
Thats art. Kind of anti-religious art as it is supposed to show backwardness of religious dogma vs science.
I like it!
Maybe its the first Castle Swamp?
How do you post something like that? I don’t see any buttons to insert pictures.
Looks like a belfry to me.
All ready to host bats, or maybe it already does…
It is the ivory tower of climate elitism sinking in to the swamp.
Its just CNN and Weather Channel imagery.
Can you spell: Eleven Cities Tour?
Elfstedentocht
Elven cities tour? Taking in Lothlorien, Rivendell and Mirkwood.
Given a balmy high of 4C today this will make the average high for September in Edmonton Alberta Canada at 11.1C. This will be the second coldest September with records going back to 1880. Coldest was 10.3 in 1926.
I record temps for Env. Canada, and have done so for 29 years….. here just south of Calgary….this will be the coldest Sept I have recorded!
yet we can expect claims of the warmest year ever come year end.
Ahh a fellow Edmontonian
Ditto for my location here in the upper plains of the US. High today was 35°F below seasonal average and has been close to that for days, but is forecast to warm up to within a few degrees of seasonal average for a day or two mid week, then back down to double digit below average. Family in upper New England are also having unusual cold with temps 10–15°F below normal. Meanwhile, a continent to the West, friends in Sacramento, CA are experiencing highs >10°F below normal. I’m going to be very interested to see the RSS and UAH monthly reports for September.
Yeah, but that’s just weather. If it was hot, well then we’d be talking climate!
Can you spell Eleven Cities Tour?
Elfstedentocht
Dr. Phil Jones, of East Anglia University’s CRU, infamously said he would rather that humans suffer and civilization be damaged by climate change than for his “science” to be proven wrong. But just like a typical climate alarmist, he falsely presumed that the only climate disaster could come on the warming side, while completely discounting the possibility that if the Earth plunges into a new cold period, both of those things could happen.
We are far past the point where idiots like him should have any influence over public policy.
Contrary to the alleged statements of Phil Jones:
1) I am predicting imminent moderate global cooling.
2) I really want to be wrong, because humanity suffers during cooling periods.
BTW, I have an infinitely better predictive record than Phil. I suggest you bundle up.
____________________________
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/17/oddly-quiet-sun-3-weeks-without-sunspots/#comment-2407423
[excerpt]
In 2002, I predicted that natural global cooling would commence by 2020 to 2030, in an article published 1Sept2002 in the Calgary Herald. I am now leaning closer to 2020 for cooling to start, possibly even earlier. I hope to be wrong. Humanity and the environment suffer during cooling periods.
I suggest that it is long past time for society to prepare for the possibility of moderate global cooling. This would involve:
1. Strengthening of electrical grid systems, currently destabilized by costly, intermittent green energy schemes;
2. Reduce energy costs by all practical means.
3. Development of contingency plans for food production and storage, should early frosts impact harvests;
4. Develop contingency plans should vital services be disrupted by cold weather events – such as the failure of grid power systems, blocking of transportation corridors, etc.
5. Improve home insulation and home construction standards.
The current mania over (fictitious) catastrophic global warming has actually brewed the “perfect storm” – energy systems have been foolishly compromised and energy costs have been needlessly increased, to fight imaginary warming in a (probably) cooling world.
I suggest this is the prudent path for Western societies to follow. It has no downside, even if global cooling does not occur, and considerable upside if moderate cooling does commence.
I thank you for giving this modest proposal your consideration.
Regards to all, Allan
If the Sun goes quite for an extended period, we are definitely in for another little ice age and all the CO2 we’ve emitted since the start of the Industrial Revolution may increase the lowest temperature by a few tenths of a degree, at most.
Keep in mind that if the ECS is as high as claimed, a tiny 1% drop in solar output (2.5 W/m^2 averaged over the surface) should result in a 2C drop in the global average which make it lower than the average temperature during the peak of the LIA. You have to go back to the Younger-Dryas to see anywhere close to that much change.
Why is it that they think the sensitivity only matters on the way up?
But whatever it does you know without any shadow of doubt that it will be humans who caused it. That is the single fundamental constant. Whatever happens – humans caused it and it is always worse than we thought.
Don’t be so certain that carbon-dioxide will buffer any serious cold snaps. The oceans cover most of the globe and CO2 has the property of inverse solubility; it dissolves best in cold water.
Macrae, you have been predicting cooling now for many many years. The problem is that your predictions never come to pass. 15 of the warmest years in the instrument record have occurred since the turn of the century.
10 years ago Macrae was “predicting” global cooling: http://climaterealists.com/?id=1911
Remy – are you being dishonest or just ignorant? Do you just re-post warmist trash like the above or do you actually ever look at the data? Are you innumerate?
We DID have a cooling period from roughly 2007 to 2013, when the PDO was negative, but the PDO turned positive again.
The PDO is now hovering around zero, slightly negative – see data below. We will see where it goes from here.
ALL my other predictions from 2002* on climate and energy have proved correct to date. Here are the two major ones from our 2002 PEGG debate:
1) We correctly predicted THE FAILURE OF MOST GREEN ENERGY SCHEMES in 2002, as follows:
“THE ULTIMATE AGENDA OF PRO-KYOTO ADVOCATES IS TO ELIMINATE FOSSIL FUELS, BUT THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CATASTROPHIC SHORTFALL IN GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY – THE WASTEFUL, INEFFICIENT ENERGY SOLUTIONS PROPOSED BY KYOTO ADVOCATES SIMPLY CANNOT REPLACE FOSSIL FUELS.”
2) In the same debate, we also wrote that THE ALLEGED GLOBAL WARMING CRISIS DOES NOT EXIST:
“CLIMATE SCIENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE THEORY OF CATASTROPHIC HUMAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING – THE ALLEGED WARMING CRISIS DOES NOT EXIST.”
We were correct on both these points 16 years ago – anyone who disputes this is denying reality.
1) Grid-connected green energy is a costly, intermittent, unreliable farce.
2) The climate models that predicted catastrophic global warming are all running ‘way too hot.
In contrast, the global warming alarmists at the IPCC have been consistently wrong to date – nobody should even listen to these climate clowns.
My only remaining prediction from 2002 was for global cooling, staring by 2020-2030 – I‘m now leaning toward the earlier part of that time period, but “the science is NOT settled”.
Remy, when you have something intelligent to say, I will be sure to let you know.
Regards to all, Allan
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/18/quote-of-the-week-from-curry-global-warming-hiatus-for-2-more-decades/#comment-2408794
The PDO shifted to cold mode from 2007 to 2013 -> cold years.
Then the PDO shifted to warm mode again from 2014 to 2017 -> warm years.
The PDO Index went negative again in March 2018 -> cold again?
Monthly PDO Index from 1948 to 2018 is here,
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/pdo.data
__________________________________
* DEBATE ON THE KYOTO ACCORD, PEGG, November 2002, by Sallie Baliunas, Tim Patterson and Allan MacRae.
The PEGG article was reprinted in edited form at their request by several professional journals, THE GLOBE AND MAIL and LA PRESSE in translation.
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/KyotoAPEGA2002REV1.pdf
[Set table and columns to “pre” html text format for clarity. .mod]
I don’t see any “cooling” from 2007 to 2013: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/uah6/trend
You know that six years does not make a “trend.”
..
Also note that if there was “cooling” from 2007 to 2013, then it disappeard by 2016:
http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/made/2018GlobalTempReview_Bars_F_en_title_sm_660_371_s_c1_c_c.jpg
Jan 11, 2010
Freeze May Kill 60,000
By Stuart Winter and Kirsty Buchanan, Express UK
As Britain’s winter of discontent threatened a fresh wave of blizzards and freezing temperatures last night, Gordon Brown stood accused of failing to protect the nation.
With up to 60,000 deaths predicted because of the relentless cold and the country’s major roads facing a gritting crisis, Downing Street was heavily criticised for the widespread chaos.
Conservative leader David Cameron slammed the lack of leadership at Number 10 – as the Prime Minister all but ignored the national crisis in a battle for his own political survival.
Mr Cameron said: “At times like these the country needs strong and united leadership. “We can’t go on with a Government that is more focused on its internal problems than trying to help people through difficult times, including some of the worst weather conditions the UK has experienced for years.” The Prime Minister last night admitted that for many people this was a “very serious, worrying and frustrating time”.
But he tried to play down the crisis in a podcast from Downing Street. The embattled Premier insisted gas supplies were not threatened and that everything was being done to keep the roads clear. But the winter of 2010 threatens to become one of the biggest civil crises in modern times.
Experts predict a massive spike in death rates – with up to 60,000 more people dying than average because of the wintry conditions. The British civilian death toll in the Second World War was 67,000. The economy also faces losses of up to 15billion pounds as millions of workers are forced to stay indoors because of the impact on the transport system.
The AA warned the country could expect “creeping paralysis” as grit stocks dwindle over the next two weeks. With no end to the snow and freezing temperatures in sight, the country is facing the prospect of its essential services being unable to function. Despite the efforts of tens of thousands of local authority workers, emergency services personnel and others, the superstructure necessary to cope with a prolonged deep freeze has been revealed to be inadequate.
Shadow Communities and Local Government Secretary Caroline Spelman called for an emergency statement in the Commons as Britain braced itself for a second week of Arctic weather. She said: “I think the Government should voluntarily make a statement to the House on Monday. The statement will have to be made in the Commons. I think what is difficult for local government is that confusion reigns.”
The Conservatives last night accused Labour of sitting on a report for five months which outlined a new strategy for tackling extreme winter weather conditions. Commissioned in the wake of the February 2009 cold snap, the report, by the UK Roads Liaison Group, was completed in July but not produced in the House until December 15 – two days before the big freeze struck. Miss Spelman said that Transport Secretary Lord Adonis could lose his job. She said: “I think he is in danger. It is cheap currency to say a government minister should go, but he should get a grip on the situation and sort it out but he is a bit late into the game.”
Plunging Arctic temperatures and high energy bills have created the “perfect storm” to send winter mortality rates to appallingly high levels. The persistent snow and frost make the elderly far more vulnerable to killer diseases such as pneumonia and bronchitis and also more susceptible to strokes and heart attacks.
Charities are calling for a major shake-up in the way the elderly are helped to survive. It is estimated as many as one in three pensioner households are spending more than 10 per cent of their income on energy bills – the official definition of fuel poverty. As many comparisons are being made between the winter of 2010 and the Big Freeze of ‘63, a look back at official Government statistics reveals that there were more than 89,000 excess deaths that year.
Andrew Harrop, head of public Policy at Age Concern and Help the Aged, said: “It is shocking that there are more older people dying in winter compared to the rest of the year in England than countries with more severe weather such as Sweden and Finland. We are concerned that prolonged cold weather and high energy bills could create the perfect storm for hard-up older people this winter, causing hardship, illness and isolation.”
A spokesman for the Local Government Association said: “For older people freezing temperatures pose a very real danger, and sadly there is a risk of people dying unnecessarily. It would be a tragedy if any person was to die this winter because they kept their heating down because they feared a bill they could not afford.”
Tory shadow health spokesman Mike Penning said: “I was in my local accident and emergency unit recently and there were elderly people suffering from falls and hypothermia who are frightened to turn up the heating because they don’t want to be in debt.”
This weather pattern is deeply entrenched, say experts, raising the prospect of a prolonged freeze to rival the notorious winters of 1963 and 1947. Read more here.
The latest scandal from the deep freeze in Britain. Coldest winter temperatures since records began in 1659. Colder than the Dalton Minimum circa 1800. Colder even than the Maunder Minimum circa 1700. There are unconfirmed reports that the nuts were frozen off the Nelson statue in Trafalgar Square.
CCNet – 6 January 2010
The Climate Policy Network
In recent days, the Met Office has stated that it apparently changed its original advice in October and actually warned the Cabinet Office that the start of winter would be exceptionally cold. It would appear that the Met Office’s cold warning was kept secret from the public. Not only is the lack of Government preparedness a cause for concern, but we wonder whether there may be another reason for keeping the cold warning under wraps, a motive that the Met Office and the Cabinet Office may have shared: Not to undermine the then forthcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Cancun. –Benny Peiser, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 6 January 2010
The Met Office knew that Britain was facing an early and exceptionally cold winter but failed to warn the public, hampering preparations for some of the coldest weather on record. In October the forecaster privately warned the Government – with whom it has a contract – that Britain was likely to face an extremely cold winter. It kept the prediction secret. Motoring organisations and passenger groups said yesterday that the delay hampered preparations for winter. –The Daily Telegraph, 4 January 2011
The Met Office has defended its decision not to make public a long-range forecast which predicted “an exceptionally cold” winter. The forecaster, which has its headquarters near Exeter’s Sowton Industrial Estate, told the Cabinet Office in October that temperatures would plunge lower than usual, and the winter would be longer than average.–Patrick Phelvin, The Exeter Express & Eco, 5 January 2011
It’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry over the latest antics of the nation’s official weather forecasters. The Met Office now claims that it briefed the Cabinet Office privately in October that the winter would be ‘exceptionally cold’. Forecast? The Met Office didn’t warn the public about the severe winter weather. It’s increasingly difficult to understand what they do to deserve our £200 million a year.—Daily Mail, 4 January 2011
You couldn’t have asked for a better snapshot of the chasm that divides today’s so-called expert classes from the mass of humanity than the snow crisis of Christmas 2010. They warn us endlessly about the warming of our planet; we struggle through knee-deep snow to visit loved ones. They host million-dollar conferences on how we’ll cope with our Mediterranean future; we sleep for days in airport lounges waiting for runways to be de-iced. They pester the authorities for more funding for global-warming research; we keep an eye on our elderly neighbours who don’t have enough cash to heat their homes. –Brendan O’Neill, Spiked 4 January 2011
Remy – tell your story to the grandsons and granddaughters of the 60,000 MORE elderly Brits who died in the winter of 2009-2010.
BTW, Excess Winter Deaths in Britain last year are estimated at 48,000 – again, you could explain your position to their grandchildren.
These are just the Excess Winter Deaths, not the total number of Winter Deaths.
“The Met Office has defended its decision not to make public a long-range forecast which predicted “an exceptionally cold” winter. The forecaster, which has its headquarters near Exeter’s Sowton Industrial Estate, told the Cabinet Office in October that temperatures would plunge lower than usual, and the winter would be longer than average.”
Actually the UK 2010/11 winter was not exceptionally cold. Just December was….
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2011/winter
Dec anom -4.8C
Jan. -0.6
Feb +1.7C
Also the MetO had recently developed a new NWP model that integrated levels in the Stratosphere. Not yet in operational service.
That was what predicted the cold Dec.
,
LOL @ Macrae…. Got any data that disproves what I posted? The “woodfortrees” chart I provided a link to shows your “cooling” just isn’t happening.
ALLAN MACRAE,
“Coldest winter temperatures since records began in 1659.” – January 2010
Nonsense, 2009/10 was the 59th coldest winter in the Central England Temperature series, about 2°C warmer than 1962/63.
January 2010 was 65th coldest.
ALLAN MACRAE
“Remy – tell your story to the grandsons and granddaughters of the 60,000 MORE elderly Brits who died in the winter of 2009-2010.”
Any evidence for that figure?
According to official statistics there were 25,810 excess deaths in 2009-10. Nothing out of the ordinary.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2016to2017provisionaland2015to2016final
Remy and Bellman – you are usually a waste of time – these figures were correct when I posted them years ago. I may not have time to re-check them. I usually find that you types are just making up your BS as you go, and assuming people will believe you. I don’t.
ALLAN MACRAE
“these figures were correct when I posted them years ago.”
Which figures? You quoted a figure of 60,000 additional deaths during the winter of 2009-10, but the only evidence was a prediction quoted in the Daily Express.
You quoted something called the The Climate Policy Network from early January 2010 saying temperatures were the coldest since 1659. That could only be referring to the CET, but a moment looking at the seasonal or monthly records for the CET shows that claim is wrong.
I doubt either figure has changed in the last 10 years.
Remy and Bellman.
Returning to the main points, I wrote this above:
Here are the two major points from our 2002 PEGG debate:
1) We correctly predicted THE FAILURE OF MOST GREEN ENERGY SCHEMES in 2002, as follows:
“THE ULTIMATE AGENDA OF PRO-KYOTO ADVOCATES IS TO ELIMINATE FOSSIL FUELS, BUT THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CATASTROPHIC SHORTFALL IN GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY – THE WASTEFUL, INEFFICIENT ENERGY SOLUTIONS PROPOSED BY KYOTO ADVOCATES SIMPLY CANNOT REPLACE FOSSIL FUELS.”
2) In the same debate, we also wrote that THE ALLEGED GLOBAL WARMING CRISIS DOES NOT EXIST:
“CLIMATE SCIENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE THEORY OF CATASTROPHIC HUMAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING – THE ALLEGED WARMING CRISIS DOES NOT EXIST.”
We were correct on both these points 16 years ago – anyone who disputes this is denying reality.
1) Grid-connected green energy is a costly, intermittent, unreliable farce.
2) The climate models that predicted catastrophic global warming are all running ‘way too hot.
In contrast, the global warming alarmists at the IPCC have been consistently wrong to date – nobody should even listen to these climate clowns.
___________________
Do you dispute these two points? If so, kindly explain why, and provide your evidence.
ON CREDIBILITY
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/13/new-butt-covering-end-of-snow-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-2397292
A little recent history about Winter weather forecasts:
The National Weather Service (NWS) of the USA forecast a warm winter for 2014-15 and my friend Joe d’Aleo told me in October 2014 that the NWS forecast was seriously incorrect, and that the next winter would be particularly cold and snowy, especially in the populous Northeast. This was the second consecutive year that the NWS has made a very poor (excessively warm) Winter forecast, in Joe’s opinion – and he and his colleagues at WeatherBell have a great track record of accurate forecasts.
Joe and I had been working together on a paper on Excess Winter Mortality, and I suggested to Joe that this false “warm winter” NWS forecast was dangerous, especially if the country and its people were unprepared. Joe agreed, but did not know how to tackle the problem.
I proposed an approach, and we prepared a presentation for my friend at the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Joe then prepared his own monthly Winter Forecast by region for the EIA, who re-ran their winter energy demand calculations. Using Joe’s forecast, the EIA projected 11% more winter energy required for the USA than the “warm” NWS forecast had projected.
After that brutally cold and snowy winter, a back-analysis showed that the actual energy used was 10% more than the NWS forecast projection, and just 1% less than Joe’s forecast projection.
(Note: all numbers are from memory.)
So I think we did a good deed.
As far as the subject 2017 paper is concerned, I expect the climate in the US Northeast to get colder, not warmer, starting soon. Those states that have adopted foolish green energy schemes will soon find that green energy is not green and produces little useful energy.
Regards to all, Allan
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/08/25/svensmark-publishes-solar-activity-has-a-direct-impact-on-earths-cloud-cover/comment-page-1/#comment-2288041
_____________
Posted two years ago – Feb 2015 – re the cold winter in the USA 2014-15:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/16/new-paper-confirms-the-hiatus-is-not-occurring-at-the-poles-undermining-the-efforts-of-cowtan-and-way/#comment-1861633
This post is dedicated to the good people of New England, buried under record depths of snow,,,
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
– Dr David Viner, Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
Boston already has set a new record for monthly snowfall this February, and it’s only the middle of the month!
OK you warmist imbeciles, repeat after me, v-e-r-y s-l-o-w-ly: “I blame global warming.”
_____________________
MORE SNOW, INTENSE COLD COMPOUND THE MISERY
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/02/15/snow/2IO1E0ibEJ1PK1sC1wPAyO/story.html
By Jennifer Smith and Jeremy C. FoxGlobe Correspondents February 15, 2015
Boston braced Sunday night for a life-threatening deep freeze after a blizzard bombarded parts of the region with nearly 2 feet of snow and gale-force winds.
The sixth winter storm in three weeks made February Boston’s snowiest month on record, with 58.5 inches, besting by more than 15 inches the previous record set in January 2005.
Temperatures were forecast to plunge below zero overnight Sunday, with wind chills as low as 20 to 30 degrees below zero, and to remain well below normal all week, according to the National Weather Service. Forecasters warned that another storm could hit the area beginning Tuesday evening.
***************************
He’s been predicting cooling to start in 2020 to 2030 for many years.
How exactly have these predictions been falsified?
Do you have access to a time machine?
Or are you just an ignorant troll who’s only goal is to distract and earn your day’s pay.
These suggestions are perfectly fine and really have no downside. Better insulation works both ways, keeping homes cooler in the heat, warmer in the cold. A reliable electric grid is always desirable as well. And it never hurts to insure the food supply. Being prepared for anything is much better than going about moaning over the ambient temperature, be it cold or warm. And it wouldn’t hurt to stop rewarding bad science with gobs of money to produce more bad science.
Did he now.
Would you care to share with us evidence of that bald assertion?
Anthony Banton, are you responding to my message and assertion about Phil Jones? If so, I’m surprised that anyone involved in the climate change, CO2 alarmist debate is unaware of this most prominent ClimateGate e-mail. In it, Jones is writing to John Christy at UAH in 2005. Along with other telling things that condemn the IPCC process as highly biased and tendentious, Jones’ message concludes with
Of course, at the time, at least in the popular press, the consequences of climate change meant anything from boiling away the seas, to millions and billions of climate refugees, NYC West Side Highway submerged underwater, etc.
Although we don’t know what Jones really fears, we know he’s never pooh-poohed any hyperbolic alarmist claims. So in that sense, “regardless of consequences” means Jones might even prefer the most hyperbolic disaster scenarios promoted by the most committed alarmists to a mild and beneficial warming, or a GCM disproving period of cooling.
I also find it quite interesting that Jone thinks his own childish selfishness is not political. What a dense knob. He isn’t even self-aware enough to consider that he’s actively co-opting others into his own corruption and violations of law. But he cares not about the optics of this, because he knows his friends will go along, and a complicit media industry will continue to insulate his wrong-doing from public scrutiny. He knows that if there is blowback, they’ll all get together at the next COP meeting to deal with their own climate versions of Clintonian bimbo eruptions. Ironically, Jones’ message also carries a full confirmation that even he, Jones, cannot say certain true things about the climate, or at least, things he believes to be true, within the cult environment of which he is a leader.
Here’s a link to that entire e-mail: http://www.assassinationscience.com/climategate/1/FOIA/mail/1120593115.txt
BTW, Anthony Watts maintains a blog role on the right hand side of every WUWT page. Tom Nelson’s blog is an excellent place to find ClimateGate e-mails and analyses from various scientists and sources. FWIW, my personal favorite analysis of the whole of the ClimateGate conspiracy is by physicist John Costella. It can be read here:
https://www.scribd.com/document/25798443/Climategate-Analysis
Everyone in this debate needs to understand the ClimateGate e-mails in all their sullied glory. If you’re just a peripheral apologist for CAGW activists and “scientists, you really need to master the ClimateGate material or you will always be seen as credulous, ignorant and or naive by my side of this debate. If you’re honestly curious about how science is abused in the climate sub-discipline, you also need to command this material so you can correctly judge whether or not you think a political special interest has formed to promote and defend entrenched pseudo-scientific ideas as a sort of an off-the-rails, Gaia, eco-cult, with the famous ones like Jones and Mann and Al Gore playing the roles of a self-serving priesthood of status-seeking planet saviors.
Even if you’re a totally on-board believer in CO2 CAGW hypotheses, and you wish to use any and all propaganda to minimize the damage to your coalition from ClimateGate, then you also need to understand fully what it is you’re seeking to minimize. I’m not saying you’re in this camp, Anthony B. But some are. and for them, I would hope they read and consider these corrupt messages and try to understand their obvious meanings. Perhaps there may be some things so unscientific, so egregious, so fascist and totalitarian, that they might become disillusioned and consider not supporting thatcoalition any more.
Have a wonderful day, and study hard.
Shocking…no acknowledgement whatsoever. Just moves-on to arguing elsewhere.
These trolls love a drive-by shooting – that is what they do best..
“The Moving Middle Finger writes; and, having writ, moves on…”
― with apologies to Omar Khayyám
“Winter chill seems to be getting a head start this year”
It’s (comparatively) not the case over the Arctic however……
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom
Probably because there’s a finite supply of Joules trying to warm the planet. For one place to become colder than average, another must become warmer than average. At any one time, about half the planet is above average and the other half is below average. For any one place to be exactly average for more than a day or two in a row is very rare.
AB, you are welcome to go enjoy that (comparitive) arctic warmth. If a troll is educable, you might have actual true info to share with us then. We have followed the increasing failure rates of craft from canoes and yachts to large ships,in getting through. Pretty close to total this year on many routes. Simply becaus the AMOC is showing its teeth. Soon, we will be told that we are den!ers or not agreeing that ice age is coming. Again. But it will have force all the same, because of the Quet Sun. As UV etc. warms the ocean upper layer less. Already, some trolls have disappeared…….
They’ll be back shortly with a trivial sign change adjustment and an enhanced admiration for those pseudoscientists with the true foresight to make the marketing shift from ‘global warming’ to ‘climate change’.
Mr. Banton: Since I’ve gone past seventy years old, I’ve been having more trouble with “chills”. I now live in central California, and I don’t think I can handle Minnesota winters anymore and I have no wish to swim in the North Sea until my fingernails turn blue. Bring on global warming, we’ll have fewer problems with crop failures due to low temperatures (e.g. during the little ice age and cooler summers because of massive volcanic eruptions), I like to eat. I love being sarcastic.
Mr Minish:
I am 64 yo, and I live in East Lincolnshire.
Unlike you I know that any climate change is unlikely to impact me nor do I wish it.
What I wish is that people like you would not consider it a “personal” problem. Rather a global one which will affect populations far into the future. In short you could say I’m not selfish. Also I had a career in atmospheric science, so I do not talk from ignorance or ideologic motivation, though no doubt you my disagree, certainly may here would. That is a consequence of polarisation and not common sense.
If you have had a career in atmospheric science you can perhaps explain the hypothesis that CO2 can cause global warming and the concept of “tipping points” caused by the increased level of that gas, especially since no such tipping points appear to have been reached at any time in the past when both temperature and CO2 concentrations have been higher than they are today.
This is the nub of the problem, Anthony. There is not one shred of evidence that the present state of the climate is in any way extraordinary over, say, a 5,000 year timescale. It has been warmer and it has been cooler without any need to invoke the assistance of an essential trace gas currently at levels not greatly above near-critical.
To argue that the Modern Warm Period *must* be attributable to CO2 because the “climate scientists” can’t think of anything else is not science. Closer examiniation, however, does point to environmental politics — which is not scientific either!
“There is not one shred of evidence that the present state of the climate is in any way extraordinary over, say, a 5,000 year timescale. ”
There most certainly is my friend.
But you’ll not find here.
Nor do I expect anything other than your response from here.
But then Scientists are all incompetent.
Scientists are all frauds. (sarc)
Err, no – they just know more than you (and/or do not want to consider).
Anthony Banton
So, back up your claim that there is evidence that today’s climate is extraordinary over a range of the past 5000 years.
Other than being cooler than the Minoan Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period, AND the Medieval Warm Period ..
“So, back up your claim that there is evidence that today’s climate is extraordinary over a range of the past 5000 years.”
Extra-ordinary in terms of rise of atmospheric GHG rise (= forcing).
(is 10,000 years enough?)
In steepness of GMST rise
http://sci-hub.tw/10.1126/science.1228026
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/what%E2%80%99s-hottest-earth-has-been-%E2%80%9Clately%E2%80%9D
Also the Earth is still in a long-term Milankovitch cooling phase (since the HCO) …. that has had to be overcome to start the warming.
http://clivebest.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/lat-study2.png
Anthony Banton wrote:
“Also I had a career in atmospheric science, so I do not talk from ignorance or ideologic motivation”
_________________
Anthony, I do not think there is anything unusual going on in terms of global temperature or wilder weather.
Atmospheric CO2 is increasing, and it may lead to some moderate warming, which will not be dangerous but will be hugely beneficial to humanity and the environment due to increased crop and plant yields.
I have studied this subject since 1985 and have two engineering degrees and a much better predictive track record than the warmist mob.
I also have NOT repeatedly lied in technical reports, deliberately deceived people, nor have I had people fired from their positions who disagree with me. The warmist mob has done all these things and worse, and they belong in jail.
“In short you could say I’m not selfish. Also I had a career in atmospheric science, so I do not talk from ignorance or ideologic motivation, though no doubt you my disagree, certainly may here would. That is a consequence of polarisation and not common sense”
In short just another leech sucking off the public teat but not selfish nor ignorant nor ideological. In fact just another man but with qualities approximately close to Superman.
In short just another leech sucking off the public tea”
Sorry but your spittle missed the mark.
I helped RAF aircrew from ploughing into mountains and then produced products that were sold to maintain the commercial side of the MetO.
Wot you do my spittle-spitting personage?
“I helped RAF aircrew from ploughing into mountains and then produced products that were sold to maintain the commercial side of the MetO”
Well Mr. ‘not selfish’ for what little it has to do with your arrogance, I work in the private sector and the last time I checked both military and the Met were reliant on government expenditure. You are not a leech then, but certainly part of Leviathan where expenditure of tax dollars has no limitation, especially so when saving humanity from itself is top priority.
given the amount of open ocean in the arctic these days at this time of year, comparing current air temps to those of the past is a nonsense. what happened to the arctic death spiral, it appears to have stalled ten years ago.
Trollop is missing a major issue with it’s claim:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png
Friggen cold is still friggen cold and sea ice still freezes.
Not that anyone is actually physically measuring the Arctic temperature.
If you check the legend, you’ll notice the red line representing Arctic Temperatures states: “ECMWF operational model”.
No matter how much the alarmists pretend, modeled data is not and never will be observational data. Though it does explain why so many Darwin award candidates travel to the poles every year.
And where is all that heat in the air from the Pacific Ocean going after reaches the Arctic. Hint: Outer Space. Just old Mother Earth smoothing out the temperatures. Also note the Antarctic is as anomalously cold as the Arctic is warm.
A bunch of it stopped in western Oregon for a while.
This fall weather is what it was like in the 70’s … very nice. Almost no rain for 2 months … but everything is still green … very nice.
Water table (where I live) is lower than it has been for the last 25 years … everything is still green.
Which part of the Antarctic?
The coldest part of the continent – the Russian base at Vostok – has just had its “warmest” 12 months on record, with an average temp of -52.4, compared with the long-term mean of -55.2.
I remember 1971 well, as I graduated from a New England prep school that year. The snow hung on in the woods well into April. I know, as I skied on it. Perhaps cooler times are upon us.
If you can pronounce Scheveningen properly you won’t be shot by partisans.
Coeur de Lion: I have been declared a foreigner several times trying to say “Scheveningen”. I know (weet) that I never got the “ui” right and I think I never got the “ij” correctly. Do you think the Dutch passport control will keep me out for my safety? Dank U wel voor de herelijk tijd. Please forgive my spelling.
Dutch ain’t got nothing on Swedish with the inflections and dialect.
Sadly though, Swedish will soon be a 2nd Language to Arabic in Sweden.
But on the bright side,
If any native Swedish Bikini Team Members need asylum in the US, my pool and home is open to them.
That’s the spirit, Joel! We’ve got to look out for the Swedish Bikini Team. 🙂
Seems to be colder than last year here in southern Michigan, where is that global warming when I need it?
Weather, not climate.
Ground temps Eifel /Germ.
?w=631
2 m temps Sauerland / Germ.
?w=695
With increased jet stream activity in the Arctic plus a looping jet setting up blocking patterns. Then this winter could see a return to a LIA climate. lts looking like Canada is going to be hit hard this winter as warmer air moves into the Arctic over NE Russia which then sends Polar air down across Canada and into the USA.
Next weekend will give a taste of what’s to come as a major outbreak of Polar air pushes down across Canada and into the western half of the USA. Low pressure will be sitting over the western USA, so the first widespread snows of the season could be turning up in October.
This is a very high amplitude pattern with the upper ridge pushing into the Arctic and the large upper trough over western Canada/U.S. This is the most persistent very high amplitude pattern that I have seen at this time of year, and I have been doing this weather forecasting for a very long time and have seen most any atmospheric pattern you can think of. Not to say it has not happened before, but I have just never seen it. And it looks to be persisting for a couple more weeks.
Yes this pattern and the jet stream are very strong for the time of year. More like you would expect during the winter. What l think is the key factor here is the increased jet stream activity in the Arctic.
As this allows the air to spend more time up in the Arctic to cool before its sent back south again. This was a key factor in the cold weather that hit N America last winter.
The Greens will be happy, at last our efforts to save the planet from its fever are working.
MJE
In Jan 1973 and again in 1974 I was in Enschede on project work with Akzo. Having flown in from Australia, I found the winter invigorating. In nearby Amsterdam the canals froze over, providing a barrier to garbage usually tossed in them, revealing their dirty little habit. Cheap way to pick up a used or stolen bicycle. Drove Enschede to Hamburg and return one weekend, snow a fair part of the way, but at least all of the rare windmills were old, preserved and scenic. Geoff
Playing ball fetch with my dogs in pool all afternoon. Clouds have finally come in and light showers as we await the heavier rains of a Pacific TS blowing up the Baja.
Beautiful fall for Tucson AZ.
Going to Texas in 2 weeks to bring back a cord of dried mesquite wood for the fireplace. This should be a good old fashioned cold winter.
Frack on baby to keep nat gas prices in check!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
I hope that photo isn’t the weather station.
Cold air flows over Europe from the north behind the jet stream.
The historical land of windmills has achieved early frosts? That’s great. At this rate the President of the United States can declare the Paris agreement targets achieved. The intergovernmental job is done. No need for taxpayer funding of additional junkets.
The same applies to a “science” declared “settled” and “energy” declared “sustainable”. By definition there is no need for taxpayer funding for those either.
Any further initiatives can be financed by volunteers. After all, based on the news from US Senate committees lately, the blob has plenty of cash to spend, but lack purpose in life.
Die Nederlands got a chilly night? Oh, the poor things!
Oh, big deal!!! Piffle! I always record the overnight temps here in my kingdom.** Saturday night into Sunday AM, the low was 36F. And I now have violets blossoming in my front yard again. The poor things are confused.
**My kingdom is 35 miles north of Chicago, and about 5 to 6 miles west of Lake Michigan (depending on how high the water surface level is) and I live on hilltop.
Oh, wait – Does this mean that, as happened some time in the late 1990s, there will be enough hard ice on the canals to have another skating festival? I do remember seeing that on TV, while I was still living in Chicago. It was supposed to be a retake on the story of Hans Brinker and the Silver Skates. Does anyone besides me remember that?
I never did read that book. I guess I should have, that one and ‘Dog of Flanders’. Amazon may have it, or Dover books.
This would make a great stage prop for the Weather Channel and CNN during the next hurricane.
I think it is called ‘autumn’.
That is an archaic term that was ended in the Middle Green Dynasty.
A note to the science challenged alarmists.
It only takes ONE outside the bounds measurement to cast doubt on a theory but a consistently large number of predicted results to validate the theory. I other words, “cherry picking” is legitimate for “disproving” a theory. If alarmist level warming is occurring then there would be NO low temperature records occurring anywhere in the world.