UPDATE 8PM PDT
Lane is now a Tropical Storm, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph.
As of 5 PM HST, Tropical Storm Lane was located 150 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii, and 160 miles west of Kailua-Kona, Hawaii, and is moving to the northwest at 3 mph.
UPDATE: 4PM PDT
UPDATE: 11:50AM PDT
Hurricane lane is now a category 2 storm and has made the north turn, NWS Honolulu says:
Hurricane Lane is a category 2 storm this morning, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. As of 5 AM HST, Hurricane Lane was located 180 miles south of Honolulu and around 145 miles west-southwest of Kailua-Kona. Lane is moving slowly toward the north at 6 mph.
A slow northward motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is anticipated on Saturday, with an increase in forward speed. On the latest forecast track, the center of Lane will move dangerously close to portions of the central Hawaiian islands later today and tonight.
Here’s the most recent tracks and radar showing Lane at Cat2 level. Note that the position marker at the next update period suggests Lane will drop to a CAT1 storm before turning west. It appears there will be no direct hit on the Hawaiian Islands (Oahu was a big concern), but there will lots of rain from rain bands.
If it wasn’t enough that torrential rains hit the Big Island over the past 24 hours, causing widespread flash flooding, a second tropical system, a tropical disturbance called INVEST 95C is now threatening even more rain. An invest in meteorology (short for investigative area, alternatively written INVEST) is a designated area of disturbed weather that is being monitored for tropical cyclone development.
In the photo below, the second smaller track to the right is the path of Invest 95C:
Here is 95C along with computer model forecast tracks. Some of the forecast
Invest 95C is currently a tropical disturbance (Marked with an L for a Low pressure area) and has maximum winds about 30 mph with a central pressure of 1009MB. It is currently headed to the NW at 11 mph, which would have it tracking along the east side of the Big Island. Some of the computer model forecast tracks in the image above show it crossing or very near the Big Island.
The threat of additional rain on the Big Island comes mainly from rainfall induced by orographic lifting should Invest 95C make a crossing or near-miss. This will induce significant rainfall, which will quickly run off the already saturated ground from the rainfall from Hurricane Lane, causing flash flooding.