The tower of power falls short -produces only 30% of capacity

Solar Tower with Thermal Energy Storage: A “Consolidated” Technology with a Single Plant of Decent Size Built on Earth Producing Less Than 30% of the Planned Electricity

Guest essay by Albert Parker

If we consider the latest (2017) National Renewable Energy Laboratory Annual Technology Baseline data, [1] and [2], they say current representative technology for concentrating solar power is molten-salt power towers with 10 hours two-tank thermal energy storage. They admit the first (and only) large molten-salt power tower plant with 10 hours of storage is Crescent Dunes, 110 MW, commissioned in 2015.

Their concentrated solar power workbook is based on purely hypothetical solar towers with direct two-tank 10 hours thermal energy storage supposed to deliver annual capacity factors (ratio of actual electricity delivered in a year vs. the product of the installed capacity by the number of hours in a year) largely exceeding the 50% mark, more precisely 56% in an insulation class 3 location (Las Vegas, NV) or 59% in an insulation class 5 (Dagget, CA).

These capacity factors of 56% and 59% correspond to an annual electricity production per unit capacity (power) of 4,906 and 5,168 kWh/kW that are nowhere to be seen even close in plants on Earth.

If we look at the operational Concentrated Solar Power stations of capacity above even only 50 MW in the entire world, this list includes 34 stations, 31 of them are parabolic trough, a much more consolidated and reliable concentrated solar power technology, 1 is Fresnel reflector, and only 2 of them are solar tower.

The 2 power stations are both in the United States, the 377 MW Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System and the 110 MW Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project.

As actual electricity production of these plants is available from the United States Energy Information Administration [3], we may certainly check if the numbers by NREL are right.

As a comparison, we also consider the data of a more reliable concentrated solar power parabolic trough plant similarly recently built, the 250 MW Genesis, that has no thermal energy storage.

For the 377 MW Ivanpah, the planned electricity production was 1,079,232 MWh per year, corresponding to a capacity factor of 32.68%, with minimal support by burning natural gas.

For the 110 MW Crescent Dunes, the planned electricity production was 500,000 MWh per year, corresponding to a capacity factor of 51.89%.

For Genesis, the planned electricity production was only 580,000 MWh per year, corresponding to a capacity factor of 26.48%.

Figure 1 presents the monthly capacity factors of Ivanpah, Crescent Dunes and Genesis.

Worth to mention, the monthly capacity factors vary according to the season.

To deliver an annual capacity factor of 56% or 59% solar only, the summer capacity factors should be much larger than that to compensate the lower spring/fall and more than that winter capacity factors.

Ivanpah has no thermal energy storage, but boost by combustion of natural gas. So far, it has been able to reach a 21.29% annual capacity factor only not accounting for the significant natural gas combustion. As the natural gas can be burned better in a combined cycle gas turbine plant, the actual annual capacity factor is reduced to 14.42% when corrected for the consumption of natural gas in a combined cycle gas turbine plant.

Crescent Dunes is the current representative technology for concentrating solar power by NREL.

The project has delivered so far much less than the projected electricity production, a 13.21% annual capacity factor in the best year.

The plant had a major issue in the thermal energy storage that prevented electricity production for a long time, and is not recovering yet.

The more reliable Genesis has been able to produce electricity reaching an annual capacity factor of almost 30% without any boost by natural gas combustion, a value even better than the expected.

It does not seem appropriate to propose as “current technology” a technology that does not seem mature yet, while downplaying what is already working much better.

The thermal energy storage is not such a well proven and mature technology. Similarly, but marginally better, the solar tower technology is much more troublesome than the parabolic trough technology.

While NREL does not update the numbers to match reality, the South Australian government and the Federal Government of Australia have recently decided to build (about) same of Crescent Dunes power plant by same developer in Port Augusta, South Australia [4], [5].

image

Fig. 1 – Monthly capacity factors for the Ivanpah, Crescent Dunes and Genesis concentrated solar power plants. Design annual capacity factors are 32.68% for Ivanpah (but with minimal support from the burning of natural gas), 51.89% for Crescent Dunes, and 26.48% for Genesis. Ivanpah has been able to reach a 21.29% annual capacity factor in 2016 only not accounting for the significant natural gas combustion. Crescent Dunes has delivered a 13.21% annual capacity factor in 2016. Genesis has been able to produce electricity reaching an annual capacity factor of almost 30% in 2006.

 


References

[1] National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). 2017 Annual Technology Baseline. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. www.nrel.gov/analysis/data_tech_baseline.html

[2] National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Concentrating Solar Power. atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2017/index.html?t=sc&s=ov

[3] Energy Information Administration (EIA). Electricity data browser – Plant Level Data.

Available online: www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/

[4] ABC News (2017), Solar thermal power plant announced for Port Augusta ‘biggest of its kind in the world’.

www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-14/solar-thermal-power-plant-announcement-for-port-augusta/8804628

[5] Renewable Economy (2017). Aurora: What you should know about Port Augusta’s solar power-tower.

reneweconomy.com.au/aurora-what-you-should-know-about-port-augustas-solar-power-tower-86715/

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R. Shearer
May 5, 2018 7:15 am

Good article. I would suggest that none of the figures given deserve more than 3 significant figures.So, for instance instead of writing 21.29%, just say 21.3% or even 21% is close enough.

Ben of Houston
Reply to  R. Shearer
May 5, 2018 8:55 am

I would disagree. Metered electricity is quite accurate, and design values are absolute. This is one case where the precision actually is justified.

R. Shearer
Reply to  Ben of Houston
May 5, 2018 10:22 am

But they give the design capacity in only 2 significant figures in some cases.

Ben of Houston
Reply to  Ben of Houston
May 8, 2018 3:46 am

True, it’s stated only as one or two digits, but it’s an absolute number, not a calculation. The unit is specified to run at 60 MW or whatever it is. Since it’s an exact, stated number, it doesn’t reduce significant figures, just like an exact count doesn’t.

Greg
Reply to  R. Shearer
May 5, 2018 2:01 pm

Good ?! It’s illegible. Maybe someone who speaks English could rewrite it or at least proof read it.
Having had to read everything two or three times to work out the punctuation should be and untangle the mash of different ideas being mixed in the grammatical blender I gave up.
It looks like there may be some interesting info here but for too much work trying to make sense of it.
Tip: a paragraph running for five lines should have more than one full stop ( period ). Express one idea in a sentence , not five or six.

Krudd Gillard of the Commondebt of Australia
Reply to  Greg
May 5, 2018 5:15 pm

The article is about that Frank Zappa song “Bobby Brown”

pjrpd
Reply to  Greg
May 5, 2018 6:29 pm

I found this article interesting and informative. Thank you for doing this basic research, even if it is a bit technical.

SocietalNorm
Reply to  Greg
May 5, 2018 9:15 pm

Better get some oil from Sheik Yerbouti.

Sheri
Reply to  Greg
May 6, 2018 7:09 am

I noticed none of the problems Greg states. It’s a technical write-up, not a novel.

Reply to  Greg
May 6, 2018 9:20 am

I noticed, but I did not have to read it several times, just imagine what was trying to be said, instead of reading it as written.
Example:
“Ivanpah has no thermal energy storage, but boost by combustion of natural gas. So far, it has been able to reach a 21.29% annual capacity factor only not accounting for the significant natural gas combustion. As the natural gas can be burned better in a combined cycle gas turbine plant, the actual annual capacity factor is reduced to 14.42% when corrected for the consumption of natural gas in a combined cycle gas turbine plant.”
Would be much more clear and transfer the information into the readers brain more effectively if it was more like this:
“Ivanpah has no thermal energy storage, but is boosted by combustion of natural gas.
So far, it has only been able to reach a 21.29% annual capacity factor, not accounting for the significant natural gas combustion, which lowers the efficiency still further.
Since the natural gas used at Ivanpah could have been burned more efficiently in a combined cycle gas turbine plant, the actual annual capacity factor ought to be reduced to 14.42%, if corrected for this loss of efficiency.”
Or something like that.
Just sayin’.
I got the gist of it, would not have brought it up, but since it was brought up and Greg is being criticized for pointing out the tortured grammatical structure, this is my perhaps helpful suggestion.
A comma between the words “only’ and “not” would have gone a long way.

R. Shearer
May 5, 2018 7:20 am

Including levelized cost of electricity or something similar would be informative.

Reply to  R. Shearer
May 5, 2018 7:49 am

I found a number for Crescent Dunes of $900 million. I get about $3.50 per KWHr with the capacity factor above.

WXcycles
Reply to  Max Hugoson
May 5, 2018 9:59 am

I want to see that built in South Aust, they so deserve it, and the politics of their targetted renewables stupidness.

Reply to  Max Hugoson
May 5, 2018 11:28 am

That sounds a bit off..
CRESCENT DUNES
Capital cost $900m
Lifetime 40 years?
O & M costs 15% of capital
Cost of capital 7.5%
so annual depreciation + O & M + interest charges = 900/40 + 900 * 0.15 + 900* 0.075 = $225m dollars per year needed to break even…and repay capital
At the planned 500GWh per year that is $225m /500m= $0.45c /KWh ($450/Mwh)
With lower capacity factors that could rise to over a dollar a unit – but I cant get to $3 a unit.
Unless these are totally maintenance free and zero interest rate financed…
Even just amortizing the capital cost over 40 years leads me to 900/40 x500 = $0.045c /KWh. ($45/Mwh)
Showing that even as planned it’s hopelessly uncompetitive.

Reply to  Max Hugoson
May 5, 2018 12:18 pm

40 years is unlikely.
A Molten Salt system probably has a service life well under 20 years before it needs a major overhaul and refit to replace pipes, tanks, seals, corroded support structures, new sensors. Probably 10-15 years would be my guess, before a major refit/overhaul was necessary at around 30% of PV original construction costs.

Greg
Reply to  Max Hugoson
May 5, 2018 2:07 pm

$0.45c /KWh ($450/Mwh) ???
Come on Leo, you know enough science to get your units right, don’t you? And it’s dollars or cents but not both.

Greg
Reply to  Max Hugoson
May 5, 2018 2:11 pm

kWh , MWh $0.45
Thanks for doing the numbers.

David L. Hagen
Reply to  R. Shearer
May 5, 2018 2:05 pm

R. Shearer Falling CSP prices
Crescent Dunes bid 13.5 c/kWh in 2009
SolarReserve bid < $0.05/kWh for 260 MW concentrated solar power with storage at Copiapo in Chile.
24-Hour Solar Energy: Molten Salt Makes It Possible, and Prices Are Falling Fast

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  David L. Hagen
May 7, 2018 6:48 pm

L. Hagen;
Oh, looky here, in the fine print:
“Power price is bases on the power purchase agreement (PPA) signed by the developer for power from the project; it may not reflect other sources of project income such as the sale of environmental credits or excess power.”
So, any renewable energy credits or certificates that other power providers have to purchase to meet their renewable energy targets (RET’s) get priced at whatever the market can bear. If NJ is any indication, that’s 3-4 times the energy price.

David L. Hagen
Reply to  David L. Hagen
May 8, 2018 6:39 pm

@D. J. Hawkins True, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on Chile imposing taxes (aka credits) 3-4x power costs.

May 5, 2018 7:21 am

I prefer Molten Salt Nuclear Reactors, a lot more energy per sqft.

Curious George
Reply to  Hans Erren
May 5, 2018 7:50 am

Promising, but capacity factor in 2017 was 0.000%.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Curious George
May 5, 2018 11:14 am

Or infinity.

Ron
Reply to  Curious George
May 5, 2018 1:32 pm

+100

Greg
Reply to  Curious George
May 5, 2018 2:13 pm

0 / 0 = unity = 100% , not too bad.;)

Lars P.
Reply to  Curious George
May 6, 2018 2:04 am

Well not exactly molten salt, introducing ‘kilopower’:comment image
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/demonstration-proves-nuclear-fission-system-can-provide-space-exploration-power
“Kilopower is a small, lightweight fission power system capable of providing up to 10 kilowatts of electrical power – enough to run several average households – continuously for at least 10 years. ”
“The prototype power system uses a solid, cast uranium-235 reactor core, about the size of a paper towel roll. Passive sodium heat pipes transfer reactor heat to high-efficiency Stirling engines, which convert the heat to electricity. “

Ernest Bush
Reply to  Hans Erren
May 5, 2018 8:46 am

The capacity factor for Molten Salt Nuclear Reactors will stay at 0.000% for years to come. Somebody has to build one to determine anything. If someone ever does, construction will be way cheaper and faster than current reactors. They will be safer, also, since they don’t require a pressurized dome to reach operating temperature.
The real problem with MSNRs is political. There are too many politicians not wanting citizens to have cheap reliable electricity. It breeds independence. Progressives screwed up with fossil fuels, since they expected us to run out. None of them saw the fracking revolution coming world wide.

Robert W Turner
Reply to  Ernest Bush
May 5, 2018 9:03 am

Last I checked there were at least 2 gen IV reactors currently being constructed in the USA.

arthur4563
Reply to  Ernest Bush
May 5, 2018 11:40 am

Apparently you believe all molten salt reactors development is in the West. Chia and India both are actively pushing molten salt. There is nothing unknown about the technology – there have been experimental molten salt reactors in the past , but the use of carbon
moderators provided too little psace for fuel, unless highly enriched, which is a no-no.
urrent designd have several methods to avoid this problem. Smaller moderatorating elements, and better reactor vessel alloys alow for Transatomic type designs, while others simply use standard uranium rods and cycle them out before they corrode. None of the molten salt nuclear reactor designs have been subject to technical skepticism by nuclear experts. They will deploy in several years, at least those that have a design that includes
proven technology (Moltex Energy). The future is molten salt nuclear power, of that there can be no doubt.

The Reverend Badger
Reply to  Ernest Bush
May 5, 2018 12:35 pm

I think the fundamental problem with any molteni nuclear reactor is dealing with the mutitude of cross reactons in all the chemicals in the soup! It’s going to be 1,000 times harder than my wife making a chicken casserole that tastes exactly the same as the last one!
Just when you thought you got all the substances accounted for something will change and a new flavour will pop up. Probably one that corrodes something important in the system.

Reply to  Ernest Bush
May 5, 2018 12:49 pm

No. Voglte 3 and 4 are gen 3 westinghouse AP1000 designs. The only gen four anywhere in the world under constructiin is a small pilot MSR in China.

prjindigo
Reply to  Hans Erren
May 5, 2018 9:07 am

They’re garbage. They produce almost continuous waste and pollute their own fuel stream.

LarryD
Reply to  prjindigo
May 5, 2018 10:53 am

https://whatisnuclear.com/msr.html
All nuclear reactors have the issue of neutron-absorbing reaction produce “poisoning” the reaction. That is why light-water reactor fuel rods have to be removed after three years, despite having well over 90% recoverable energy left. MSRs have an attached reprocessing column in the fuel flow, so the reprocessing is done on-site.

Gamecock
Reply to  prjindigo
May 6, 2018 6:43 pm

But LarryD, continuous separations is a bug, not a feature.

s-t
Reply to  prjindigo
May 7, 2018 11:50 pm

“That is why light-water reactor fuel rods have to be removed after three years”
“Chernobyl-type” reactors (more properly, RBMK) could have fuel removed at any time. Other (non light-water) designs also allow that. Bug or feature?

May 5, 2018 7:22 am

The Case for the Good Reactor https://spark.adobe.com/page/1nzbgqE9xtUZF/

Tom Halla
May 5, 2018 7:23 am

Another bird killer that does not produce much actual power.

gregole
Reply to  Tom Halla
May 5, 2018 10:08 am

We have numbers measuring how much electric power it fails to produce; do we have any numbers on how much wild-life it destroys?

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Tom Halla
May 5, 2018 10:13 am

It’s amazing what can be built with other people’s money.

RAH
May 5, 2018 7:25 am

And how much biomass did it fry doing so?

Robert W Turner
Reply to  RAH
May 5, 2018 9:15 am

Well I actually think this might be the cause the for low capacity. They need to do a better job keeping the mirrors cleaned of all that black carbon.

Latitude
May 5, 2018 7:27 am

“an annual capacity factor of almost 30% …………., a value even better than the expected.”
Then what were they expecting?…..and when they sold this bill of goods, what did they promise and claim?

May 5, 2018 7:32 am

A direct commercial flight from Milwaukee to San Francisco flies right over that thing. If you’re sitting in a window seat on the north side of the airplane, you get a great view of it.

May 5, 2018 7:32 am

One word — boondoggles.

ShrNfr
May 5, 2018 7:35 am

Noted in passing, the capacity factors really go into the dumps around year end/beginning. You obviously have to have some sort of alternative generation in place to provide power during those times. All very well to be able to provide power during the daytime in july, but nighttime in december matters too.

Reply to  ShrNfr
May 5, 2018 10:38 am

It is worse than the diagram suggests. Even in a sunny warm month, there are cloudy days or even cloudy hours.

nn
May 5, 2018 7:43 am

Niche applications. There is still a cost-benefit analysis to perform.

May 5, 2018 7:44 am

And the actual capital cost of these monsters is?

Reply to  Max Hugoson
May 5, 2018 10:07 am

I found out, for the 500 MW (alleged,real 150 mw) with storage, it’s $970 million.

WXcycles
Reply to  Max Hugoson
May 5, 2018 10:08 am

The energy is free! 👌 💗 😀🐇🌈🌼🌞🌎🌝🌻🍰

JON R SALMI
Reply to  WXcycles
May 5, 2018 11:31 am

The energy is free – This reminds me of an old B&W western I saw decades ago. Two hungry cowboys walked into a bar, saw a sign on the counter advertizing a free meal. They each ordered the meal. This being in the SW, the meal was ‘muy picante’ so they asked for water. At the end of the meal the bartender charged them $2. When they asked why the batender turned the ‘free meal’ sign around to reveal that water was $1 a glass.

Curious George
May 5, 2018 7:54 am

” NREL does not update the numbers to match reality.” How much do we spend on that service?

R. Shearer
Reply to  Curious George
May 5, 2018 10:25 am

The director of NREL takes home around $1 million/year, so he is all for it.

Ellen
May 5, 2018 7:56 am

Nitpick: the word “insulation” should probably be “insolation”.

prjindigo
Reply to  Ellen
May 5, 2018 9:11 am

Not a nitpick really. Considering we’re also talking thermal storage here I’d say insulation value is important.

John Green
Reply to  prjindigo
May 5, 2018 9:34 am

Since the wording is ” 56% in an insulation class 3 location (Las Vegas, NV) or 59% in an insulation class 5 (Dagget, CA).” I suspect insolation was meant since I can’t see how insulation has to do with location.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  prjindigo
May 5, 2018 11:35 am

Not a nitpick; a basic parameter mislabeled. Twice. But what stopped me was this awkward sentence:
To deliver an annual capacity factor of 56% or 59% solar only, the summer capacity factors should be much larger than that to compensate the lower spring/fall and more than that winter capacity factors.
I think the author’s intent was:
To attain annual capacity factors of 56% to 59%, summer capacity factors must be much larger than that to compensate for lower spring/fall insolation and abysmal winter insolation.

Reply to  prjindigo
May 5, 2018 12:33 pm

This post could use a rewrite. Here for example “…These capacity factors of 56% and 59% correspond to an annual electricity production per unit capacity (power) of 4,906 and 5,168 kWh/kW that are nowhere to be seen even close in plants on Earth. …”.
Could be stated as “The capacity factors of 56% and 59% correspond to a power production rate of 4,906 and 5,168 Kwh/Kw per unit. No working CSPs are currently able to reach such a production rate in operation”.
I would rephrase much of the rest of the post similar to the above.

Wharfplank
May 5, 2018 7:58 am

“…the cost of electricity will necessarily skyrocket.” Barak Hussein Obama

dan no longer in CA
May 5, 2018 8:00 am

In the second paragraph, insulation should be insolation. Nit pick for the day.

May 5, 2018 8:01 am

We certainly need a good dose of “truth in advertising” when talking about wind and solar energy. How can anyone claim either will someday be economically competitive with fossil fuel or nuclear when every wind/solar plant requires an equal amount of dispatchable power — fossil or nuclear? You basically have to build two equal plants, so renewables will never compete with dispatchable sources.

dan no longer in CA
Reply to  Robert Cherba
May 5, 2018 8:10 am

Indeed. At least one of the major installers has a website that tells you how much money you can save with a residential installation by entering location and size of house. It doesn’t even take in to consideration whether you have a south-facing roof. Tesla/SolarCity: https://www.tesla.com/solarroof?energy_redirect=true

Don K
Reply to  dan no longer in CA
May 5, 2018 10:12 am

Solar City actually installed panels on a North-facing roof down the street from me Since we are at 44.47N, the panels get no sun at all for about 4 months out of the year and very low angle sun for much of the rest of the year. Of course, the panels are coated with ice/snow much of that time.so the insolation is kind of irrelevant.

PTP
Reply to  Robert Cherba
May 5, 2018 9:22 am

Solar energy becomes much more practical in space based applications, so research into the technology should not be abandoned entirely.
But greenies need to admit that as a surface based commercial energy strategy, solar is not, and will probably never be, a viable option.

Reply to  PTP
May 5, 2018 11:49 am

Yup. Collecting energy from an dangerous uncontrolled unshielded reactor 93million miles away is more dangerous and far less efficient than collecting it from a carefully shielded controllable reactor 50 meters away
Remember solar radiation is deadly: 3000 people a year in the USA die from deadly radiation produced by the reactor that is the source of all ‘renewable’ energy.

May 5, 2018 8:10 am

The concept is not new, but it is evil.comment image

Reply to  Javier
May 5, 2018 12:07 pm

We were warned about this, but no one listened.

dmacleo
Reply to  Javier
May 5, 2018 2:56 pm

heh heh

ccscientist
May 5, 2018 8:30 am

While it is ok to promise that gum will make your life so much better, because everyone knows this is fluff, it is not ok to exaggerate output from a solar farm in order to get government subsidies. It is theft.

Sheri
Reply to  ccscientist
May 6, 2018 7:16 am

Unless the government uses your tax money to make the gum…..

May 5, 2018 8:46 am

Gemasolar, the first commercial molten-salt solar plant in operation since 2011 is a 17 MW (registered electric power) plant located in Seville, Spain. It achieves a 55% capacity factor providing 80 GWh/year, energy for ~ 25,000 homes for ~ 4500 hours per year (6 month total), significantly better (1.5-3 x) than other intermittent renewables. At 171 million € it was quite expensive.
http://torresolenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/planta-termosolar-gemasolar-hi1-1.jpg
For sunny places where a lot of electricity is required in the summer for air conditioning, I am sure they will be a nice addition once the cost is brought down.

Bob Burban
Reply to  Javier
May 5, 2018 8:56 am

Spain has a population of around 46 million and the Gemasolar facility provides enough power for 25,000 homes. Hmmm … and that ‘s only when the sun shines.

Reply to  Bob Burban
May 5, 2018 9:06 am

And why would we want to rely on a single energy source? It is an energy mix in which solar has a place.

ferdberple
Reply to  Bob Burban
May 5, 2018 9:23 am

solar has a place
==========
yes, solar is great for desalination of ocean water to supply fresh water, because of the ease of storage of water. Los Angeles, San Francisco and similar large coastal cities for example could solve much of California’s water problems by requiring that their water supply be taken from the ocean using solar power.
The obvious solution to the “duck shaped” power curve problem in California is to direct the day-time solar power to desalination. Which is of course a guarantee that it will never be implemented. The last thing politicians in California want is to actually solve problems. If there were no problems there would be no need for politicians to solve them.

Reply to  Bob Burban
May 5, 2018 11:57 am

Thus spake Javier:

And why would we want to rely on a single energy source? It is an energy mix in which solar has a place.

Another green myth. Why would we need to rely on a single shape of wheel – square wheels have their place!
Niothi8ng wrong with relying ion a single power source provided it meets all the requirements and is reliable.
Nuclear power – say.
It the regulations were re-written to express the real danger of radiation, electricity would be about 3c/Kwh, 24×7, real cost and reliable. Enough fissile material to power the entire USA for ten years could be stored in a medium sized warehouse.
What would be the point of adding solar to that at 45c/KWh?

Reply to  Bob Burban
May 5, 2018 12:20 pm

Spain has no oil or gas, and very little low quality coal. This makes us nearly 100% dependent for fossil fuels. There is a little bit of Uranium, but we have to buy also most of it. Gas comes mainly from Algeria which is a country with very little stability. Fossil fuels have been subjected previously to huge price variations. That they are cheaper now does not mean they will be cheaper in the future.
It is not wise to be 100% dependent for our national energetic needs from other countries. Having a varied energy mix makes for a more resilient country.

tty
Reply to  Bob Burban
May 5, 2018 2:20 pm

Portugal has a lot of hydropower. Why not Spain?
And as for natural gas I recommend buying LNG from the US.

Reply to  Bob Burban
May 5, 2018 4:55 pm

tty,

Portugal has a lot of hydropower. Why not Spain?

Portugal gets a lot of rain being at the Atlantic strip. Only the North strip of Spain has enough water. Our reservoirs are for drinking and agriculture. Last fall they were down to less than 15% and this happens every few years. When it happens we produce zero hydroelectricity.

And as for natural gas I recommend buying LNG from the US.

Sure, except that it is 2-3x the price of Algerian gas and only because US gas prices are right now unusually low. Shipping LNG is not cheap.

Felix
Reply to  Bob Burban
May 5, 2018 4:59 pm

Tty,
Spain has some room for growth in hydropower, but not a huge amount:
https://www.worldenergy.org/data/resources/country/spain/hydropower/

Sheri
Reply to  Bob Burban
May 6, 2018 7:21 am

“Another green myth. Why would we need to rely on a single shape of wheel – square wheels have their place!”
Agreed. I always point out that there are many places where other options besides the currently use ones exist but only fools would want them. My fool senators, when it’s not an election year, run around spouting that garbage. In election years, they are for oil and gas—when not an election year, they are handing out money like candy to wind and solar trying to destroy our economy for “all types of energy”. Seems analytical thought is an endangered species at this point.

MarkW
Reply to  Bob Burban
May 6, 2018 8:44 am

Building two power supplies where one would do.
Sounds like a good way to make sure that energy stays expensive and the poor stay poor.

ferdberple
Reply to  Javier
May 5, 2018 9:15 am

It achieves a 55% capacity factor providing 80 GWh/year
==================
that is physically impossible. No solar plant can expect to exceed 50% capacity over the year, because 1/2 the time the plant is in the earth’s shadow.
In reality even 50% cannot be achieved because much of the time the sun is at too low an angle in the sky for full production, and at other times the sun is obscured by clouds.
Adding a storage facility such as molten salt or pumped storage can give the illusion that the plant is producing at more than 50% capacity, but in reality a large portion of the daytime output will being going into storage and significantly less coming out of storage at night due to efficiency losses.

Latitude
Reply to  ferdberple
May 5, 2018 9:41 am

+1

Shanghai Dan
Reply to  ferdberple
May 5, 2018 9:46 am

Maybe they meant 55% of the intended 30% capacity?

Don K
Reply to  ferdberple
May 5, 2018 12:13 pm

ferd. I think this is a more a terminology/metrics problem than a real issue. Slippery damn things … terminology/metrics. The plant does generate power and manages to deliver some of it at night. I think that, the question should be along the line of “How does its presence on the power grid affect the overall cost and reliability of the power delivered to consumers?” If the answer is that it makes power cheaper and doesn’t make the power system less reliable, then it’s a plus. If it increases costs and/or degrades the power system, it’s a bad idea even if it somehow manages a “137% capacity factor” on paper.
Somewhat tangentially, there are locale specific factors also. In Europe, one might pay a little in cost/reliability to minimize dependence on Russian/Middle Eastern natural gas. In Hawaii, the cost of fossil fuels lugged in from the mainland is so high that even costly solar might be preferable. On Pitcairn Island, (population about 60 — no local energy sources, virtually no money, no real way to make any money, limited maintenance skills, anything that generates electricity would likely be welcome.)

Reply to  ferdberple
May 5, 2018 12:28 pm

Molten salt stores the thermal energy in tanks to continue cycling it through heat exchangers to turn turbines after the sun goes down. Well that’s the idea anyway.
The rub is if it is cloudy for a few days, natural gas is used to keep the salt liquid and moving, so when the sun returns to the collector, hot molten salt can once again be stored in the tanks.

MarkW
Reply to  ferdberple
May 6, 2018 8:45 am

If the plant is storing some of the energy it receives in the molten salts, then it isn’t producing 100% power when the sun is shining.

Betapug
Reply to  Javier
May 5, 2018 9:41 am

Gemasolar was supposed to be a 19.9 MW plant producing 110,000MWh total over 6500 hrs/year. The actual 80GWh/year you quote would meet the average US yearly consumption for about 7200 homes for about $28,000 capital cost per house. What happened to “free power from the sun”? https://inhabitat.com/video-gemasolar-plant-in-spain-is-the-worlds-first-24hr-solar-plant/

Reply to  Betapug
May 5, 2018 12:24 pm

There is no such thing as free power. The average US home appears to require a lot more energy than the average Southern European home.

bit chilly
Reply to  Betapug
May 5, 2018 4:32 pm

given how many average american homes are in far colder areas than most spanish homes ,that is not surprising javier.

MarkW
Reply to  Betapug
May 6, 2018 8:46 am

The average European home uses less energy than the average American home because energy is so much more expensive in Europe, they can’t afford to.
There’s also the fact that government policies have kept housing expensive so the average home in much of Europe would be considered a large walk in closet in much of the US.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Javier
May 5, 2018 10:35 am

There could be an argument made for solar to cover or cap demand on high AC days, but there wouldn’t be many situations where it wouldn’t make more sense to build a gas cycling plant which would also be available to cover failures or planned shutdowns at other plants.
Killing two birds with one energy dollar invested instead of literally thousands of birds with millions of energy dollars. They kill animals to save nature and pretend the money we earn is play money.

MarkW
Reply to  John Harmsworth
May 6, 2018 8:47 am

Even batteries would be less expensive than this.

kenji
Reply to  Javier
May 5, 2018 10:48 am

All I know is that … prior to the ACTUAL construction of these environmental wrecking contraptions … I read multiple articles in Popular Science about what a brilliant system and design this was. All the projections indicated that soon … the earth will be covered in molten salt towers and mirror arrays … providing all the “free”, “clean”, “unlimited” power for a “clean”, “green”, “happy”, future. Of course … you will pay A LOT more for your electricity, and you will need to reduce your energy use, and learn to “do without”. Welcome to our decline. Perhaps you can set-up your own home-based bicycle-generator to power your countertop blender?

Sheri
Reply to  kenji
May 6, 2018 7:25 am

It’s sad that even when the greens are completely honest (Obama said your power bill would go UP), fools still fall for this “free, clean, green” crap. As I often note, we are not a bit smarter than those who bought from the sham medicine show wagons. “I want to believe” definitely applies to much of life. We imagine things are as we wish them to be. Until it’s too late…

tty
Reply to  Javier
May 5, 2018 2:14 pm

Unfortunately air conditioning power requirements peaks late in the afternoon when solar is not producing much.

Reply to  Javier
May 5, 2018 11:01 pm

By your stated figures…
Gemasolar: 75,000 acres (375,000 average house lots). 80 GWh/year. 25,000 households. Households served per acre 1/3.
From public data (3 reactors, 1.4 GW capacity each)…
Palo Verde nuclear plant: 4,000 acres (20,000 average house lots). 36,792 GWh/year. 11,497,500 households. Households served per acre 2,874.
Which one “rapes the Earth?”

ferdberple
May 5, 2018 9:03 am

what I find problematic is how far off the design estimates these plants are operating. where is the post-build analysis?
this points to a huge engineering problem. why are the plants so far off design? This should not be happening.
The obvious answer is that there was scientific and engineering corruption and/or political interference in the approval, funding, design and construction of these plants.
This is no different that the Challenger disaster. There should be an independent post-build analysis to identify the problems and ensure they do not repeat in future.
The problem is that all too often if there was corruption in the original build, then this will factor in to the post-build analysis. A hand-picked blue ribbon team of “experts” will be assigned to lay the blame squarely at the feet of the blameless. While those responsible for the mess will pocket the $$ and remain nameless.

kenji
Reply to  ferdberple
May 5, 2018 10:55 am

So TRUE! And speaking of …
… scientific and engineering corruption and/or political interference in the approval, funding, design and construction …
May I refer you to Jerry Brown’s “high speed” train, which has been draining valuable taxpayer funds at an EPIC rate!

David L. Hagen
Reply to  ferdberple
May 5, 2018 1:56 pm

fredberple
Construction Error!

The biggest problem by far at Crescent Dunes was a leak in the hot salt storage tank discovered in late 2016. Smith explains that a giant ring, resting on pylons on the bottom of the tank, distributes the molten salt as it comes down from the receiver. While the pylons were supposed to be welded to the floor, the ring itself was designed to move as changes in temperature cause expansion or contraction. Instead, due to a construction error, it was all welded together, and temperature changes caused the bottom of the tank to buckle and leak.

May 5, 2018 9:25 am

I know it is not a popular subject here, thought by many, who haven’t looked, to be pseudo, but LENR (cold fusion) is close to becoming commercial. Pity all that money was wasted on solar projects.
Dr. Rossi is currently building a factory to mass produce a self contained 1 kW module, 10″x10″x8″ he hopes to have in operation in ~7 months.
He is also working on a 10kW & 100 kW versions that are further off.

LdB
Reply to  aashfield
May 5, 2018 10:04 am

I think even the true believers are getting tired of the claims of Dr Rossi. Come back when he has actually done produced something.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  aashfield
May 5, 2018 10:52 am

Yup. I think it’s real but there’s no more Mulligans for Rossi.

Reply to  aashfield
May 5, 2018 11:51 am

You are sadly behind the times. Rossi demonstrated the reactor in Sweden 26 Nov 2017 after running it for a year.
http://www.delcotimes.com/opinion/20171206/letter-to-the-editor-major-advance-in-cold-fusion-touted-as-energy-solution

Reply to  aashfield
May 5, 2018 11:59 am

Well then there is no problem – we will all be running off them in 5 years time, wont we?
Relax and let cold fusion appear. It doesn’t need government finance since it would be massively profitable.
According to its protagonists.

Alan Robertson
Reply to  aashfield
May 5, 2018 4:18 pm

So, you offer as proof of Rossi’s claims, a letter you wrote to an editor, touting Rossi’s claims.

Reply to  aashfield
May 5, 2018 5:31 pm

Alan Robertson, , my piece in the DelcoTimes was an update for a lay audience. No experiment will satisfy the the pseudo skeptics, only having reactors for sale will do that.
Should you be interested in the demo you can watch the 6 hour video of the proceedings.

Dr. Strangelove
Reply to  aashfield
May 5, 2018 8:00 pm

Quotes from the letter re. cold fusion of Rossi:
“It is important to recognize the Nov. 24 demonstration was to provide people with the characteristics of the E-Cat QX and was not a scientific experiment whose results would allow others to replicate it.”
So it’s not science and would not allow replication. Crackpots can make any claim without any evidence.
“Parts of the reactor are secret so it was difficult to display everything. The measurements made were adequate to show the properties of the E-Cat QX. To ensure there was no trickery some other proprietary measurements must be made.”
So the extraordinary cold fusion process is secret and could be a trickery in the absence of “other proprietary measurements.” Smells like fake physics.comment image

Sheri
Reply to  aashfield
May 6, 2018 7:26 am

As I said, there’s a lot of “I want to believe” out there and little concern with the reality of the belief.

Reply to  aashfield
May 6, 2018 9:03 am

I know it is a lost cause to try and persuade the skeptics to look more closely.
You will have to wait until the end of the year to see if the factory materializes. Rossi recently stated it is small and will have an initial capacity of 100,000 units per year.

LdB
Reply to  aashfield
May 6, 2018 9:30 am

Great so come back in 9months and tell us all about it. The whole thing has dragged on so long everyone except you has lost interest. It will either happen or not and as we can’t get any real insight because it is all secret why discuss it. It’s a bit like discussing what secret weapons USA military has, why would you waste your time you would never know one way or the other.

Reply to  aashfield
May 7, 2018 9:21 am

LdB. You are wrong in several places. You are being naive if you think progress has been excessively slow. He ddoesn’t have unlimited taxpayers dollars. There were major problems to overcome to make the E-Cat reliable and controllable. After running the 3rd generation QX reactor for a year before the prototype was displayed last November. I think Rossi is being too optimistic thinking he ill have production this year. I have already written the first half of 2019 is more likely.
Comparing it with America’s secret weapons is ludicrous. Rossi tells us a lot about what is going on and you can ask him questions, He is pretty good at answering them and will tell you when he can’t because i is secret. You don’t really expect him to tell his competitors everything do you?
Consider how open most manufacturers are about the development of a new product.

May 5, 2018 9:42 am

this points to a huge engineering problem
Not really!
This is ‘green engineering’ after all, normal rules do not apply……..

McSwell
May 5, 2018 9:46 am

“…and only 2 of them are solar tower. \n The 2 power stations are both in the United States…” Should “power” be “tower” in the second sentence?

sz939
May 5, 2018 10:09 am

Crescent Dunes is an economic and electrical production disaster! The idea that molten salt would be able to allow 24 hour production proved to be a complete fallacy. The Site was forced to build a gas fired power plant to keep the salt molten enough to resume operation when the sun returned in the morning. It was discovered that once the salt froze, the sun was unable to restore molten salt flow as only the salt in the top of the tower remelted, not the whole circulation system. The plan was to provide standby high peak daytime electricity to Las Vegas, but the gas fired power plant they ended up building could have provided the needs for Las Vegas without the boondoggle of the solar furnace project and at a significant savings in cost! Additionally, cloud cover has rendered ANY predictions of production goals moot. And that doesn’t include the biologic cost of flaming bird populations or flight hazards to passing aircraft. Like most Solar concepts, Solar Furnaces are not worth the cost of building and maintaining them.

Reply to  sz939
May 5, 2018 10:18 am

“The idea that molten salt would be able to allow 24 hour production proved to be a complete fallacy.”
..
https://phys.org/news/2011-07-gemasolar-solar-thermal-power-hours.html

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Remy Mermelstein
May 5, 2018 10:49 am

The article describes a single 24 hour operating period close to the date of maximum yearly insolation. That fact does nothing to justify the outrageous cost or profound limitations of this idiotic project.

sz939
Reply to  Remy Mermelstein
May 5, 2018 10:51 am

Remy – You might want to check for more RECENT data on Gemasolar. According to Torresol’s own website: Gemasolar ensures power production for 4,565 hours per year, 1.5-2 times higher than other renewable energies. At 8,760 hours per year, that’s only 52% of the time, NOT 24/7/365!

sz939
Reply to  Remy Mermelstein
May 5, 2018 11:43 am

And at the distributed cost of 28,000 Euros, each of those homes could BUY a 15 to 25 KW Gas Generator and have enough money left over to run it for many years! And the Capital Cost does NOT include Operating and Maintenance Costs, which, when added in, would provide continuous standalone power for each of those homes for the life of the homeowner! “Green” Energy is such a Farce! Considering the amount of money being transferred, you might as well call it GREED Energy!

bitchilly
Reply to  Remy Mermelstein
May 5, 2018 4:36 pm

kool aid remy, it’s not good for you.

WXcycles
Reply to  Remy Mermelstein
May 5, 2018 6:01 pm

sz939 on May 5, 2018 at 11:43 am
“And at the distributed cost of 28,000 Euros, each of those homes could BUY a 15 to 25 KW Gas Generator and have enough money left over to run it for many years! … ”
——
Problem is, CO2 would attack and the world would end within a decade.

May 5, 2018 11:25 am

“These capacity factors of 56% and 59% correspond to an annual electricity production per unit capacity (power) of 4,906 and 5,168…”
kWh/kW (What are these weird units supposed to represent? Reduces to just hours??)
Capacity factor =MWh produced over the year / 110 MW * 8,760 hours.
“…nowhere to be seen even close in plants on Earth.”
What? Well run plants heavily dispatched can’t hit 90%+ capacity factors.
What do we have here, another Wiki “expert?”

May 5, 2018 11:28 am

You would not invest in one of these things unless you had money to burn (someone else’s money preferably) and wanted kill a large number of passing birds by frying them to death.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  ntesdorf
May 5, 2018 11:46 am

Could you open an expensive restaurant nearby and serve crispy duck and other epicurean delights?

u.k.(us)
May 5, 2018 12:01 pm

If you really want to heat salt, why not just nuke it ?
You can do it 24/7.

Ed Zuiderwijk
May 5, 2018 12:24 pm

Does this mean that the electricity produced by these technologies is at least 3 times more expensive than anticipated?

WXcycles
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
May 5, 2018 6:40 pm

No, it’s subsidised, so much cheaper than coal.
But what it does mean is the plant will never independently make a buck to pay for themself, let alone independently produce the net profits necessary to repair, update, maintain and replace the plant, in another 30 years or so.
i.e. Not ‘renewable’.
But provides clear indication that blackholes do in fact exist.
If solar is your ‘future’, best emigrate to Africa for a better living standard and cheaper more reliable electron outlets.

Nigel S
May 5, 2018 12:35 pm

The Ivanpah plant tried to off itself in 2016, from shame I assume. It couldn’t even manage that.

Rob Dawg
May 5, 2018 1:18 pm

Ivanpah 1,079,232 MWh per year. 6,500 birds per year. Imagine a coal plant that proposed that acceptable trade-off.

Warwick Hughes
May 5, 2018 4:03 pm

In Australia the Fed. Govt. ARENA org that finances renewables carried out a global survey of solar thermal last year and decided “…concentrated solar thermal (CST) technology could be a commercially viable form of dispatchable renewable energy within a decade.” Which I take translates as – “not viable now”. New South Wales is littered with failed CST experiments and if you follow my links you can see aerials of the lot.
50MW Solar PV planned at Forbes NSW
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=5773
At Forbes Vast has just decided to go PV solar after years failing with molten salt. And while reading renewables press releases is a special form of torture my opinion is that as I write the Australian Fed. Govt. has pulled significant financing from the Port Augusta venture into taxpayers pockets, probably due to ARENA cold feet.

jpm
May 5, 2018 5:03 pm

Does the sun shine at night over there? Greater than 50% capacity factor is not possible without redefining what capacity factor means. Sounds like the IPCC playbook in action.
John

WXcycles
Reply to  jpm
May 5, 2018 7:04 pm

Yes it does shine at night, it just bounces off the moon, but only for a part of the month, so there are some efficiency losses, but these are predictable, so can adjust and compensate with ease.
Plus we have baseload candle technology to back it up, which works particularly well when wind turbines don’t. Candles are primative hydrocarbons though so these may be banned by 2025, to save the world. But we’ll figure that out. Bio-luminescence looks promising, but catching fire flies is tough work, plus they’re intermittent and seasonal, plus don’t live long. Alternately, burning dried kangaroo scat is more liikely to provide a holistic natural continent wide solution.

ResourceGuy
May 5, 2018 6:24 pm

Solar CST and all manner of other renewable diversions are the result of lobbying efforts to divert energy policy away from competitive bid utility scale PV.
You should go visit one of these sites yourself. This one at Springer NM had two employees and one of them was remotely managing several other sites in the that state from there.
some better ideas….and no dead birds, just a lot of antelope
https://www.power-technology.com/projects/cimarron-facility/
https://www.nvenergy.com/cleanenergy/renewable-energy-portfolio/solar-resources
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/12/aps-first-solar-to-build-50-mw-battery-storage-project/

Dr. Strangelove
May 5, 2018 7:16 pm

If you want expensive electricity and hate birds, the solar Death Ray is the answer. Concentrated solar power was invented by Archimedes in 214 BC to burn invading Roman ships. Now they burn the birds!

GREY LENSMAN
May 5, 2018 7:22 pm

Ivanpah cost USD 2.2 Billion. So why the disinfo above
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivanpah_Solar_Power_Facility
It does not work
Simple

J. Philip Peterson
May 5, 2018 7:54 pm

After the results (published widely) of the Ivanpah Power plant in CA, that anyone in their right mind would want to build another is beyond me. Just ask Google.

ossqss
May 5, 2018 8:38 pm

I have a neighbor who recently put in a PV panel system in their back yard. They face south, and have the panels behind the house in a wooded area. Their CF is like 5% or less. Good salesman overcame science. Typical…

Sheri
Reply to  ossqss
May 6, 2018 7:29 am

Good saleman spotted a fool with money.

Marv
May 5, 2018 8:39 pm

OMG! It’s the death ray solar power plant.
https://youtu.be/4fmZyFXfBBM

4 Eyes
May 5, 2018 9:55 pm

I don’t give a toss about 30% of energy capacity. I want power 24/7 and so does everyone else on the planet.

SkepticalWarmist
May 6, 2018 2:17 am

To underline the comments of others … A complete re-write is in order.

Reply to  SkepticalWarmist
May 9, 2018 10:53 am

So that everyone can understand it and may be able to see the fr@ud?

s-t
May 6, 2018 4:38 am

“centrale solaire THEMIS”: converted from concentrated thermal to PV
https://youtu.be/_ymGHyv3dSw?t=34s

Sheri
May 6, 2018 7:30 am

I want to believe, I want to believe, I want to believe, I want to believe….Ah, it’s never going to work. I simply cannot be that gullible, no matter how hard I try…..

GREY LENSMAN
May 6, 2018 8:42 am

Compare this with the stunning advances after the wright brothers, in aviation without subsidies

GREY LENSMAN
May 6, 2018 8:35 pm

35 years, no progress, no fame. Why? Because it does not work

This Jim G, not the other Jim G.
May 6, 2018 10:47 pm

Isn’t the production capacity based on available sunlight and not a 24 hour day?
When comparing apples to apples ie, solar vs gas powered or nuclear for 24 hour production, solar falls woefully short.
Regarding molten salt to provide 24hr power, you lose a significant portion of available power just to heat the salt so that you can have power at night. Just another lose-lose scenario.to make solar look less bad than it really is.

Svend Ferdinandsen
May 7, 2018 10:38 am

Amazing they can miscalculate so badly. It is well known where the Sun is, and the insulation, mirrors and the receptor should be known technical parts. I would never rely on a rocket design done by such engineers.

ResourceGuy
May 7, 2018 11:18 am

So it’s an inefficient gas plant in disguise.

s-t
Reply to  ResourceGuy
May 9, 2018 5:32 pm

“Renewables” are mostly fossil fuel users, with an intermittent component added for fun.
“Renewable subsidies” = subtle fossil fuel use subsidies