Where The Warmth Is

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

I got to thinking about the “hiatus” in warming in the 21st Century, and I realized that the CERES satellite dataset covers the period since the year 2000. So I’ve graphed up a few views of the temperature changes over the period of the CERES record, which at present is May 2000 to February 2017. No great insights, just a good overview and some interesting findings.

First, here are the raw CERES global average surface temperature data, the seasonal variations, and the anomaly that remains after removing the seasonal variations.

ceres plotdecomp surface temp 2017.png

Figure 1. Seasonal decomposition of the CERES surface temperature data. Statistical results (bottom line) are adjusted for autocorrelation using the method of Koutsoyiannis.

So … what are we looking at? The top panel shows the raw data, the actual temperature variations. The middle panel shows the repeating seasonal variations. The bottom panel shows the “residual anomaly”, the variations that remain once we’ve removed the repeating seasonal component of the signal.

The bottom panel, the residual anomaly, is the panel of interest. You can see how little the temperature has varied over the seventeen years of record. The El Nino of 2016-2017 is quite visible … but other than that there isn’t much happening.

There is one thing that is interesting about the residual … other than warming as a result of the 2016-2017 El Nino, the temperature anomaly only varied by about ± 0.2°C. Among other places, I’ve discussed what I see as the reason for this amazing stability in a post called Emergent Climate Phenomena.

The next question of interest to me is, where is the temperature changing, and by how much? Here is a Pacific and an Atlantic centered view of the warming trends recorded by CERES, in degrees C per decade.

CERES Surface Trends 2017 Atlantic.png

CERES Surface Trends 2017 Pacific.png

Figure 2. Temperature trends around the globe.

So … what is of note in these global maps? Well, both the poles are unusual. The area around Antarctica is cooling strongly, and the Arctic is warming. Presumably, this is why we’re getting less sea ice in the North and more sea ice in the South. It also affects the hemispheric averages, with the Northern Hemisphere warming and the Southern Hemisphere basically unchanging. Figure 3 shows the average decadal temperature trends by latitude band.

ceres decadal temperature trends 2017.png

Figure 3. Average decadal temperature trends by latitude band.

As you can see, the only parts of the planet where the temperature is changing much are the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, and the area above the Arctic Circle.

Next, in Figure 2 you can see that the North Atlantic is generally cooling. On the other hand, the Pacific is mixed, with areas of slight cooling and other areas of slight warming. Go figure.

On land, northern Russia, parts of the Sahel, the Gobi, and western Australia are warming. On the other hand, the upper Amazon is cooling strongly. So it looks like some (but not all) deserts are warming, and some (but not all) tropical forests are cooling … why?

I haven’t a clue. In my opinion, the most important words that anyone studying the climate can learn to say are “I don’t know.”

At the end of the story, I’m left with my usual amazement at the stability of the system. Despite being controlled by things as evanescent as winds, waves, and clouds, the temperature anomaly doesn’t vary more than about two-tenths of a degree. Nor is this due to “thermal inertia” as many people claim. Look again at Figure 1—the temperature changes by four degrees C peak to peak in the course of a single year, and changes by a degree and a quarter C in a single month, but the anomaly barely budges. To me, this is clear evidence of strong thermoregulatory systems, but of course, YMMV …

Sunshine today after rain, the Pacific ocean glitters in the far distance, the earth abides …

Regards to all,

w.

PS—As always, my polite request is that you QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS THAT YOU ARE DISCUSSING, so we can all be clear about what you are referring to. Please be aware that while my request is polite, if you ignore the request I may say unflattering things about your ancestry, commenting habits, or cranial capacity … be warned.

DATA: For the temperature data I have used a straight Stefan-Boltzmann conversion of the CERES EBAF Edition 4.0 datafile showing upwelling longwave radiation. The dataset is available here. I have checked and compared this temperature dataset to a variety of other temperature datasets (HadCRUT4, Reynolds SST, HadISST, TAO buoy data) and found very little difference.

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Peter Sable
March 24, 2018 1:29 pm

I’m curious why this analysis requires the CERES data. Hasn’t RSS and friends been around since 1977?

TRM
Reply to  Peter Sable
March 24, 2018 1:40 pm

I was going to ask the same about the UAH data.

Chimp
Reply to  Peter Sable
March 24, 2018 1:46 pm

RSS and UAH don’t cover latitudes above +85 degrees, below -85 degrees and, in the cases of TLT and TMT (lower and mid-troposphere), some areas with land above 1500 m altitude.

Peter Langlee
Reply to  Peter Sable
March 24, 2018 1:47 pm

Ceres covers the poles?

Roy W. Spencer
Reply to  Peter Langlee
March 24, 2018 3:02 pm

As far as I know, CERES does not measure surface temperature. Could be estimates from the MODIS imager that the CERES team passes through… but I wouldn’t trust MODIS infrared for surface temperature because it’s too prone to cloud contamination, and so they only have temperature info on clear days… an obvious source of bias.

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  Peter Langlee
March 24, 2018 5:41 pm

Willis you should have put the information in the last graf up towards the top. I won’t speak for Dr. Spencer, but when I hit the P.S. line, If figure the post is over and that I can move on.

RAH
Reply to  Peter Langlee
March 24, 2018 9:39 pm

Regardless, CERES data seems to agree more closely to with UAH than RSS. I suspect that remain the case and RSS will continue to diverge over time.

Greg
Reply to  Peter Langlee
March 24, 2018 11:13 pm

Without checking the orbital details, I think both platforms probably have similar orbital inclination: near pole but not actually over the poles.
The reason that UAH and RSS don’t cover higher latitudes is because of gaps in the data. There is some data but are too many holes to get a representative coverage.
Coverage may come down to viewing angle.of the instruments used and the swath overlap on the ground.

Greg
Reply to  Peter Langlee
March 24, 2018 11:25 pm

Roy, you really should read to the end of the post before commenting …

Willis, something as fundamental as that should be in the article, probably near the top, not in a PS after the usual boilerplate “please quote me” spiel.

PS—As always, my polite request is that you

When I got that far, I said, yeah OK, the usual ( perfectly reasonable ) Willis closing paragraph and stopped reading because I’ve read it a hundred times. I did not expect crucial scientific information relating to the scientific content of the post at that stage. So I also missed the vital explanation of how you got temperature from CERES and was under the mistaken impression that was a data field provided by the CERES folks, not a home spun derivation. I will now delete the graph I just saved.
Please be clearer, preferably in the intro when doing that kind of thing.
Many thanks to Dr Spencer for drawing attention to that.

Editor
Reply to  Peter Langlee
March 25, 2018 4:36 am

AFAIK neither do any of the other temperature data sets. I think what Willis meant to show was that the temps represented in those data sets didn’t vary much from the CERES data, not that they were accurate measurements of temps.

March 24, 2018 1:40 pm

Please, clearly indicate on the Home page that an article is by Willis, so it could be safely skipped without looking inside. Thank you.

TRM
Reply to  Alexander Feht
March 24, 2018 1:44 pm

Aw, you no get along with W? Opening the article and checking the top line for author too much effort?

Reply to  Alexander Feht
March 24, 2018 1:46 pm

Wow. Two wasted clicks. You must be spent.

TRM
Reply to  Max Photon
March 24, 2018 1:56 pm

LMAO. Good one Max.

Phoenix44
Reply to  Alexander Feht
March 24, 2018 1:59 pm

How ludicrous to assume you can never learn anything, even from somebody who might be wrong. But that’s Alarmists for you, closed minds, arrogant attitudes.

Robert of Texas
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 4:06 pm

“The comment was about how dreadful your work is…”
Actually it merely implied you didn’t value his input – which could imply either you have a personal problem with Willis or you do not value his work.
I greatly enjoy his input – he is always taking viewpoints I find interesting – more than I can say about most “Attackers” who add nothing of value to the conversation. Take a moment to actually read the article and say something interesting next time. Plz.
Meanwhile…I find the heating of the northern pole to be very curious. I never put any trust into the “land temperature measurements” up there since they are so sparse, but the satellite record seems to be indicating something weird is going on. If this were due to the influence of either the sun or cosmic rays, wouldn’t both poles be affected? Makes me wonder if there isn’t an unnamed oscillation between the poles that we are just now noticing. How the heck would that work?

bit chilly
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 4:57 pm

rob, i think you are a clown based on past comments. i will still read your future comments though, just in case you post something of interest. your comments also suggest you and alexander feht are the one and the same. i believe that break site rules.

Gerald Machnee
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 5:34 pm

Re comments by Alexander and Rob.
If you do not like the post, just move on to another. There are very few people who can produce the product that Willis does. It usually indicates you do not understand it.

Richard M
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 5:58 pm

Robert of Texas, one view of why the Arctic is warming is the positive phase of the AMO. Warmer water flowing into the Arctic through the N. Atlantic has melted more ice which in turn allows more heat to enter the atmosphere from the ocean.
Since the AMO has little influence in Antarctica you would not see the same effect. However, having more ice melting in the Arctic could very well speed up the Meridianal Overturning Current (global ocean current) which could lead to more upwelling of cold water around Antarctica.
This would cover two of areas of interest. Finally, increasing CO2 could actually be responsible for the warming of the desert areas and the cooling of the tropical rain-forests. This is an expected result of of Dr. William Gray’s alternate water vapor feedback hypothesis.

MarkW
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 6:49 pm

“Based on past experience reading prior work by you.”
Now that thar is funny, given the quality of Rob’s posts.

Greg
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 11:39 pm

When you attack a man without reading a word of what he’s written, that is an ad hominem attack.

Willis, he was not “attacking a man” he was saying he did not wish to read your work. That is presumably based on past experience of reading your work, not a personal “attack”.
There are similarly several commenters here like HenryP that I don’t even bother reading any more because they are so irrelevant. It is perfectly valid to form an opinion about someone’s work based on their past work and use that as a filter.
I have a positive prejudice in your case because your posts are often interesting and ( usually ) clearly explain the origin and processing of the data.

Editor
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 25, 2018 3:00 am

Richard M – The Arctic warming doesn’t look like it’s caused by warm water flowing N from the Atlantic, because N of the Atlantic is where the warming is least.

Editor
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 25, 2018 4:37 am

AFAIK neither do any of the other temperature data sets. I think what Willis meant to show was that the temps represented in those data sets didn’t vary much from the CERES data, not that they were accurate measurements of temps.

Editor
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 25, 2018 4:40 am

If you don’t actually read the post, how exactly do you know it is ‘dreadful’? Having a predisposition to classify all work by a person as ‘dreadful’ without reading it is an ad hom.

Carbon Bigfoot
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 25, 2018 5:15 am

There was a study done years ago that examined reading and comprehension levels of American citizens that suggested they read on a fifth grade level and comprehend on a third grade level. Perhaps that extends to a small minority of WUWT participants. In reading Willis’ posts over the years I have been enriched by his presentations, since as a chemical engineer, I’m not a member of this exclusive community. Since I suffer from Expressive Aphasia from three strokes(no sympathy please)–my affliction requires re-reads in order to process the information, and hopefully comprehend what is presented.
This chest puffing and ad hominem attack does not offer any value to what we are all hear for—mainly to offer theories and evidence to promote knowledge. Can we provide the respect to each other that the other side does not?

MarkW
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 26, 2018 1:18 pm

As usual, Rob has to descend to personal attacks.

MarkW
Reply to  Alexander Feht
March 24, 2018 2:53 pm

The first line of the summary on the home page clearly indicates the author.

Reply to  Alexander Feht
March 24, 2018 3:23 pm

Should we also make the same adjustment for your comments, so people can skip over them?

NW sage
Reply to  Anthony Watts
March 24, 2018 3:34 pm

Perhaps Alexander’s comments should be printed in invisible ink?

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  Anthony Watts
March 24, 2018 5:54 pm

Back in the paleolithic days of blogging, there was a blogger who disemvowled obnoxious commenters. She had a script that would remove all of the vowels from their comments, rendering the comments unintelligible. Just saying.

schitzree
Reply to  Anthony Watts
March 24, 2018 7:43 pm

I have a Greasemonkey script on my laptop that changes the text color of any poster I add to its blacklist to Red. That way I can still read them if I want to, but I’ll know ahead that it probably won’t be worth my time.
Of course, I then read most WUWT articles on my phone.
>¿<

Crispin in Waterloo but really in Ulaanbaatar
Reply to  Anthony Watts
March 24, 2018 7:51 pm

Anthony, that is exactly what I was thinking by the time I got to the 5th ad hom by Bradley. I started skipping because of my experience with his earlier junk comments.
Fortunately each comment has a bolded “Rob Bradley” at the top left informing me that it is time to flick the wheel (I have one of those mice with a no-click centre wheel – makes for faster fly-bys). It is the ultimate in efficient no-click browsing.
Willis: Thanks for the charts. I want to cite them in Atlanta in August. At best, CO2 might promote some regional warming, but it is certainly not global. It can be argued that is it sub-regional at best. It is also sub-annual because it is only in winter that one can trace some upward evidence.
Catastrophic anthropogenic sub-regional polar warming in winter? CASRPWIW? Not enough there to frighten the kittens.

RockyRoad
Reply to  Anthony Watts
March 24, 2018 9:19 pm

What’s worse, Rob Bradley, is that you’re wasting everybody’s time. On and on and on it goes.
And you complain that Willis’ prose isn’t worth anybody’s time??
How can I print “CATASTROPHIC HYPOCRISY” in letters 10 feet high?

Reply to  Anthony Watts
March 24, 2018 11:35 pm

Mr. Watts, my name always appears above my comments, and anybody who doesn’t like them, can skip them. We are talking about articles, not comments here. I don’t want even to look inside any articles posted by Willis, and I sincerely hope that he would never forget to put his name on the home page again. Willis knows very well, what he is guilty of, and I will never forget it.

Greg
Reply to  Anthony Watts
March 24, 2018 11:45 pm

I agree with Alexander that a guest post should be clearly labelled. That omission has been promptly correct and hopefully more attention will be paid to this.
I don’t know what he thinks W. is “guilty” of and don’t really give a damn. But thanks for flagging the omission.

RockyRoad
Reply to  Anthony Watts
March 25, 2018 5:15 am

Jeeze, Rob…. The message went over your head by 10 feet, didn’t it?
Your stupidity… it burns.
But you’re not alone–you’re in good company with Mr. Feht.
(BTW, I can easily print 10-ft high letters on a Calcomp drum plotter, which has been available since the 80’s, and link them together in one big sign, proving you’re as ignorant as you are stupid.)
Again, you’re just wasting everybody’s time.

MarkW
Reply to  Anthony Watts
March 26, 2018 1:22 pm

When I was in high school, I went on a field trip to a company that printed bill boards.
They could easily print 10′ tall letters.

Robert from oz
Reply to  Alexander Feht
March 25, 2018 3:22 am

Reminds me of a fake test given to first year plumbing apprentices, the header stated read all questions before starting test ! Last line on the second page said ” to complete test only answer question 1 on page 1 ” , only one apprentice passed the test .
And the purpose of the test was just a lesson in reading paperwork from start to finish .

donald penman
Reply to  Alexander Feht
March 25, 2018 9:45 am

I thought I was the only one Alexander , I don’t like being critical but people who have a high opinion of themselves only want to talk about themselves and I get bored.

Bruce Cobb
March 24, 2018 1:42 pm

What’s hilarious is that the Warmunists have now changed their tune to “we should be cooling now”, implying that cooling would be good, but also deftly moving the goal posts in one fell swoop. Impressive.

B.j.
March 24, 2018 1:47 pm

“On land, northern Russia, parts of the Sahel, the Gobi, and western Australia are warming. On the other hand, the upper Amazon is cooling strongly. So it looks like some (but not all) deserts are warming, and some (but not all) tropical forests are cooling … why?”
Cloud cover springs to mind?

Chimp
Reply to  B.j.
March 24, 2018 1:50 pm

Human activity might actually be having an effect in the Amazon. But not much.

Richard M
Reply to  B.j.
March 24, 2018 6:04 pm

B.j., I agree that it has to somewhat to do with clouds. Dr. William Gray believed that adding more CO2 will lead to higher evaporation (caused by increased downwelling IR) which will work as a negative feedback. This would occur over rain-forests but not over deserts. Hence, the deserts would warm while the rain-forests could very well cool due to a strong negative feedback (clouds and reduced high altitude water vapor).

Greg
Reply to  B.j.
March 24, 2018 11:49 pm

And as Dr Spencer pointed out the way W. has derived the “temperature” data probably is being biased by cloud cover problems with the coverage in CERES data. This is not CERES temperature data produced and endorsed by those running the project, it is Willis’ homespun, non PR “temperature” data.
If CERES allowed a reliable temperature field to be calculated I would expect the CERES guys to be marketing it.

March 24, 2018 1:51 pm

The answer is provided within a 10,000 year context in paper Holocene
part 8, AD 1600 to AD 2050, at
http://www.knowledgeminer.eu/climate-papers.html.
This study starts with paper part 1, at 8,500 BC.
Willis, let Anthony publish it, run it through your computer analysis.
The given figures are correctly calculated, feed them into your system,
and a wonderful job is awaiting you to shred a paper series into pieces –
let Anthony give you the possibility to show that the “Californian tiger”
has strong teeth to bite…. Cheers from the author, JS.

ATheoK
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 3:53 pm

“The third pattern period starts in 1178 AD, and is caused by a strong cosmic lunar meteor impact. At this date, this impact displaced the Earth-Moon Barycenter (EMB), which then spirals back in 4 complete loops onto its regular EMB flight path around the Sun”

Many claims, no proofs.
“caused by a strong cosmic lunar meteor impact”
Exactly how is this impact, to the moon, determined and proven?
“this impact displaced the Earth-Moon Barycenter (EMB)”
Exactly how is this claim and effect determined?
“which then spirals back in 4 complete loops onto its regular EMB flight path around the Sun”
Just how does that mechanism work? For every action there is inaction? That four loops bit of description smacks of a model. not empirical evidence.
Before that odd Earth-Moon-Sun physics, I have no clue exactly what you are describing:
• A) Are you describing the Earth-Moon orbit around the sun, as the sun orbits within the Milky Way Galaxy?
• B) Or are you only referring to Earth’s orbit, around the sun as it orbits the Milky Way Galaxy?
• C) Or are you referring to Earth’s moon orbit path around Earth, around the sun as the sun orbits within the Milky Way Galaxy.
All of which fail to explain why Earth’s moon meteor impacts and orbit has any impact to Earth temperatures?

MarkW
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 6:54 pm

I’d love to know the mechanism by which a barycenter can be displaced.
The only way’s I can think of would be for either the orbit of the moon to be substantially changed or for the mass of either the earth or the moon to be changed substantially.
In neither case would the barycenter spiral back to what it used to be.
Ever.

Chimp
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 8:42 pm

Not commenting on the merits or lack thereof of J.’s hypotheses, but 1000 years is not a long time in climate studies. The longer the period of observation, the better. A millennium is shorter than many climatic cycles.
The peak of the Medieval Warm Period, of which CACA advocates wanted so much to get rid, was about 1000 years ago.

weltklima
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 25, 2018 5:01 pm

Willis, this is not paper part 8…. The paper part 8 concerns 1600 AD to 2050 AD.
You are in a different paper… Why dont you see in THE FIRST SENTENCE this
paper you quoted goes from 550 AD to 1650 AD? Is this so difficult to see?
Where did you leave your specs?
[Please] read the correct paper…. and your comment is mysterious as well….
something about the first, the second and the third theory and the [fourth] to
cover facts? The mistake is yours.- Willis…regards….J.

Robert of Texas
Reply to  J. Seifert
March 24, 2018 4:20 pm

It looks like using a bunch of sin waves to match a curve… I don’t understand how that explains the climate changes, but instead seems to just model them.
You prediction is that it should continue to warm, or at least not to cool until 2049 (+/- some error margin?). The problem with these kind of predictions is that I will be dead before I know the answer… 🙁 Its easy to make claims that are far into the future – no one will remember if you are wrong – this is a common tactic used by the AGW crowd (or whatever they call their religion these days). To have any immediate value you need to make some predictions that can be measured in a few years (10 or less would be nice).
I have been following some people’s prediction that due to the solar activity, we will be entering a period of cooling somewhere in the early 2020’s. If it does show any degree of cooling for several years, this would be proof that your hypothesis failed?

Editor
March 24, 2018 1:58 pm

Can such a short time series have any significance whatsoever?

Robert of Texas
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 4:23 pm

Willis, plz explain for mere mortals like myself… LOL Why is the CERES data data statistically significant for one and not the other? You say these things which are opportunities for me to learn, and then just leave me hanging! 🙂

Peter Sable
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 5:43 pm

So the answer basically is, significance depends on the size of the trend and the length of the dataset. (The other factor is the “Hurst Exponent” of the dataset, but that’s getting down into the weeds

It’s not just the Hurst exponent, it’s whether there are also external factors driving a system that have periods longer than the window of the data you are looking at (well, really longer than the window divided by a factor of 2-5 depending).
For example we have about two datapoints for the 60-70 year PDO/AMO cycles (140 years of temperature and other PDO related data). We don’t know much that’s statistically significant given a sample size of 2. We just know they seem to exist.
That’s why I dislike trendlines on time series data. There’s a huge assumption about oscillations whose periods are longer than that of the dataset. Those oscillations that are long look like trends… but they are not.
And from a scientific philosophy standpoint, you have to prove they are NOT there, not the reverse. (aka the null hypothesis). Very difficult to do, we only have very poor proxies (which have hints of long periods…)
Which means getting back to one of your favorite and my favorite quotes: “I don’t know” applies to trendlines in time-series data.
Peter

March 24, 2018 2:02 pm

O ye of little patience and too much science!
All will be revealed in full technicolor next year, as you’d know had you taken the time to read The Future History of The Climate Debate:
2019
Trenberth Travesty seen from space

The centrepiece of Nature’s April cover story is a stunning panorama of the Trenberth Travesty, stitched together from satellite imagery of the famous “missing” thermal energy.
“Using the hermeneutics of quantum gravity,” report the authors, “we are at last able to visualize this tricksy, mercurial zone of heat exchange whose 20,000-km front stretches from Cape Illusionment in autumn to The Isle of Mann in fall.”
The latest scientists believe the Travesty acts by thermal subterfuge to “launder” Kelvins from the atmosphere all the way down to the bathyclimatic ecosystem of the ocean floor, converting them to Hiroshimas en route.

Chimp
Reply to  Brad Keyes
March 24, 2018 2:13 pm

How many Hiroshimas in a Travesty? Or is the unit of heat missing in the deep sea a Trenberth?

Reply to  Chimp
March 24, 2018 2:38 pm

Chimp,
I’m a science communicator, so, much like the authors of the Future History of the Climate Debate, I am far too busy to hand-hold everybody who doesn’t understand things.
Do your own homework: convert Kelvins to Nagasakis at room temperature and 1 atm using Clausius-Capeyron, then Steffen-Boltzmann / Navier-Nick Stokes should get you the rest of the way from mNgs to microTrvs via deciHss.
It should take you all of 2 minutes, assuming you’ve put in the several years of college-level reading required to opine competently in a forum like this, where real scientists occasionally stoop to lurk.
You have, haven’t you?

Chimp
Reply to  Chimp
March 24, 2018 2:44 pm

I’ll freely admit that my Loopy Transform Functions are a bit rusty, which is why I asked for help.

Reply to  Chimp
March 24, 2018 2:51 pm

Chimp,
if I explained it to you I’d have to explain it to everybody. And that, of course, is precisely what denihilists want: to bog real scientists down in the futile attempt to teach elephants to dance instead of spending time in the lab, advancing our fundamental understanding of the big settled questions.

Mary Brown
Reply to  Chimp
March 24, 2018 11:27 pm

Despite having many years of college in “climate science”, I have no idea WTH Chimps and Keyes are talking about. Maybe it is the Sat night wine. Maybe it is them. 🙂

Reply to  Chimp
March 24, 2018 11:54 pm

Mary, you might want to rethink the first word of your comment (despite?)!
B.K.
🙂

philincalifornia
Reply to  Chimp
March 25, 2018 3:24 am

Chimp, don’t hold your breath, he’ll always obfuscate, so no wonder Mary is a bit confused.
He never quotes the lapse rate in degrees Fahrenheit per fkn furlong like normal scientists do.
Not that it matters any more though because we’ve been educated recently by Navier-NStokes about CO2 not having any effect where the CO2 actually is, so fk the lapse rate.
Climate communicate that Keyes

Urederra
Reply to  Chimp
March 25, 2018 9:02 am

/ Navier-Nick Stokes …

LOL.
I also wondered if they are related.

RAH
Reply to  Brad Keyes
March 24, 2018 2:24 pm

Can if find the missing hot spot(s) in the upper troposphere over the equatorial band as the physics upon which the models demand?

Reply to  RAH
March 24, 2018 2:45 pm

Missing hot spots? oh dear.
Had you taken the time to sit some basic Theology or Divinity 101, as all serious climate communicators from President Gore to Reichsführer Dr Cook have done, you’d understand the cliché that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

Robert of Texas
Reply to  RAH
March 24, 2018 4:25 pm

Oh gawd… ROFL You are killing me… Plz stop! 8-D

bitchilly
Reply to  RAH
March 24, 2018 5:01 pm

rah, did you not look at the maps provided, the tropospheric hot spot and the missing heat is hiding in plain sight in the arctic 😉

Urederra
Reply to  RAH
March 25, 2018 9:14 am

… absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

There is some evidence that you have been drinking absinthe.

Latitude
March 24, 2018 2:09 pm

good grief..we better do something….it’s getting incredibly hot ….where they have no thermometers

taxed
March 24, 2018 2:13 pm

Why has northern Russia warmed in recent years.?
The sharp decline in spring snow extent is likely to have had a large part to play in that.
As land surface free of snow cover warms up itself and the air lot quicker then snowfields with the coming of spring.

Germonio
Reply to  taxed
March 24, 2018 2:47 pm

would that be a positive feedback that the warmists are always warning people about?

taxed
Reply to  Germonio
March 24, 2018 3:01 pm

Yes l agree its a positive feedback.
l just don’t agree with the warmists claim that its been due to CO2 levels. Far more likely its been due to changes in wind patterns. With increases in warmer southern winds and a decrease of Polar air flowing over the area.

Reply to  taxed
March 24, 2018 3:23 pm

taxed,
Nice thought. But wrong.
http://i64.tinypic.com/2gxlmvp.jpg

taxed
Reply to  joelobryan
March 24, 2018 3:42 pm

That chart is for February snow cover not for the spring.
lf you check the Rutgers spring snow cover chart for Eurasia. You will see there has been a sharp decline in spring snow cover over the last 50 years.

taxed
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 4:02 pm

Willis
lf you look at the Rutgers Spring Eurasian snow extent chart, you will see there has been a decline in the snow extent over the last 50 years.
Why is northern Russia warming and not northern Canada?
Well there has been warming in northern Canada, its just not as much as in northern Russia.
Again the spring snow extent has a likely answer. Because if you look at the Rutgers N America spring snow extent. You can see the decline in spring snow extent in N America has been less then in Eurasian over the last 50 years.
So less of a decline in spring snow cover in N America means less of a positive feedback for that area as well.

Latitude
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 4:46 pm

“decline in the snow extent over the last 50 years.”…well yeah
Tricked everyone into thinking it was a new ice age……I love it when they start graphs then

taxed
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 6:24 pm

Willis
l still believe that spring snow extent is more of a factor then its been given credit for.
Took a look at the data on Rutgers and its noticeable that the biggest declines in the snow extent since 2000 have been in late spring/early summer. Just when it matters the most. lts also interesting how the spring of 2017 bucked that trend and its looking like this spring may also do the same. So l will be looking to see the changes if any it brings to temps in northern Russia.

barn E. rubble
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 25, 2018 7:38 am

RE: “Finally … why is northern Russia warming and not northern Canada?”
Would you believe the Russians have found a way to hack our heat? Just a theory . . .

Richard M
Reply to  taxed
March 24, 2018 8:33 pm

Russia sits right next to the Arctic with the areas of missing sea ice close by. The ocean heat released has a short hop to venture into Russian air space.

Chimp
Reply to  Richard M
March 24, 2018 8:36 pm

A plausible explanation as good as any. Thanks.

Germonio
March 24, 2018 2:21 pm

Hi Willis,
When do you expect your thermoregulatory system to start working? The top figure gives a temperature increase of 0.1 degrees per decade. Which given a few years will exceed your stated limits of +/- 0.2 degrees? Or is your claim that over any 20 year period the temperature will remain within a 0.2 degree limit
– a position completely consistent with global warming allowing you be right while raising CO2 levels continue to cause the temperature to increase.
Do you want to claim that over a 40 year period the trend will be zero? Or is there a measureable trend over a 40 year period?

Chimp
Reply to  Germonio
March 24, 2018 2:37 pm

Since Earth has probably warmed only about 0.5 degree C since the end of the LIA (rather than the cooked book figure of 0.8 degree often cited), the trend for that period is around 0.03 degree per decade.
As with all previous warm intervals during the Holocene, the Modern Warm Period has contained cooling cycles as well as warming. Each lasts about 30 years. The warming from c. 1977, when the PDO flipped, until the past decade has been no different from prior instances, the early 20th century and mid-19th century warmings, separated by cooling cycles. The world is already cooling again, although the El Niño of 2016 obscured its effect.
Arctic sea ice, for instance, has been growing since 2012. When the AMO enters its cool phase in a few years, the effect should become more pronounced.

Germonio
Reply to  Chimp
March 24, 2018 2:45 pm

Hi Chimp,
The world has warmed significantly more than 0.5 degrees since the little ice age (although I have no idea
when you think it ended). And I would like to see your evidence that the world is cooling. Willis analysis above suggests that it is currently warming at 0.1 degree per decade since 2000.

ATheoK
Reply to  Chimp
March 24, 2018 4:07 pm

“Germonio March 24, 2018 at 2:45 pm
Hi Chimp,
The world has warmed significantly more than 0.5 degrees since the little ice age (although I have no idea
when you think it ended). And I would like to see your evidence that the world is cooling. Willis analysis above suggests that it is currently warming at 0.1 degree per decade since 2000”

Warming periods in the 1880s, 1930s-1950, and 1990s-2017 that are interspersed with cooling periods.
Your claim for greater warmth is evanescent.
Willis has demonstrated CERES data for the period from 2000-2017, which everyone basically agrees was a warming period.
Trillions spent and CO₂ effect is still unproven.
Willis’s Earth Temperature control processes are ever active.
Willis has published several times here explaining Earth’s temperature control method explicitly.
Even you are capable of searching for and reading those articles.

Chimp
Reply to  Chimp
March 24, 2018 4:09 pm

Germonio,
No, it hasn’t. In 1995, even alarmists agreed on 0.5 degree C. Since there has been essentially no warming since then, and that figure was probably high, the real number is around that level.
The traditional end of the LIA is given as 1850, but dates before and after that year have been suggested for the first warming cycle of the Modern WP. Earth cooled dramatically from the 1940s to late ’70s, as it also did in the decades before WWI.

Chimp
Reply to  Chimp
March 24, 2018 4:28 pm

Oops. Forgot to reply about start of global cooling. That would be around 2007, so if it has still warmed since 2000, that should change after the effects of the recent ENSO swing wear off.

Chimp
Reply to  Chimp
March 24, 2018 4:37 pm

ATheoK:
As nearly as I can reconstruct them from spotty raw data, here is my take on the alternating warm and cool cycles of the secular Modern Warming interval:
W: 1857-87
C: 1888-1917
W: 1918-44
C: 1945-76
W: 1977-2006
C: 2007-
The early 20th century warming was probably hotter than the late 20th to early 21st century interval. So far the Modern Warming has been cooler than the Medieval, which was cooler than the Roman, which was cooler than the Minoan, which was probably cooler than Holocene Climatic Optimum peak warmth.
Previous secular warm and cool periods of the Holocene and prior interglacials show similar countertrend cycles.

ATheoK
Reply to  Chimp
March 24, 2018 6:27 pm

“Chimp March 24, 2018 at 4:37 pm
ATheoK:”

Your numbers are much more detailed and accurate than my rough statements! 🙂
Thank you!
You’ve well demonstrated, Chimp, that warming cycles are followed, unfortunately, by cooling cycles. While the overall trend may be higher since the Little Ice Age, there are concerns that cooling is masked by adjustments and UHI.
From a Spring post:comment image
And “Plummeting March 24 Temperaturescomment image

MarkW
Reply to  Chimp
March 24, 2018 6:57 pm

Even the IPCC only claims 0.8C, Germino, are you calling the IPCC a bunch of liars?

Germinio
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 4:24 pm

Willis,
It is the slow drifts that make your hypothesis almost completely unfalsifiable and so non-scientific. Your claim seems to be that there is thermoregulation except for when there isn’t (i.e. the slow drifts) and for unknown reasons. How does one prove that such an assertion is wrong? Over the last twenty years the CERES data present above suggest the temperature is rising at a rate of 0.1 degree per decade. Is that a slow drift? Or a rapid one on a geological timescale?

Germinio
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 4:42 pm

Willis,
if a car continued to increase its speed by 1% per kilometre while on cruise control at which point would you say that they cruise control was not working? The same with a “slow drift” idea at which point does the slow drift mean that the supposed thermoregulation is not working?
Nobody disputes the existence of positive and negative feedbacks in the climate system. The question is whether there are sufficient negative feedbacks to overcome the positive effects of increasing CO2. I would dispute that your thermoregulation effect is strong enough to counteract the effects of changing CO2 levels. Suppose for a moment that all CO2 and other non-condensing greenhouse gases disappeared from the atmosphere overnight. What would be the effect on the temperature? The standard greenhouse gas theory would predict that in a few weeks all of the
water vapour in the atmosphere would condense out and the earth would freeze. Would your
thermoregulation effects be strong enough to prevent that?

Chimp
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 4:48 pm

Geminio,
The GHE of CO2 is practically played out after the first 200 ppm. The effect is logarithmic, so adding more is, as Lindzen says, like putting another coat of white paint on an already white wall.
The net feedback effects are liable to be negative on a homeostatic, water world. Hence ECS is likely to be less than 1.2 degrees C per doubling. But even if slightly positive, net net, ECS would come in between 1.2 and 2.0 degrees C, probably around 1.6.
So, no worries. It’s all good.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 5:13 pm

Chimp,
about all that talk about CO2 saturation above 200ppm: what I have learned, is that CO2 is transfrering heat energay to other molcules by contact. From that special moment one CO2 is able to receiv new energy.
I tried hard to find any thing about the CO2 saturation, but in vain.

Chimp
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 5:18 pm

Meister,
I didn’t say that there was “saturation” above 200 ppm, but that most of the GHE of CO2 has already been effected at that level, due to the logarithmic nature of the GHE. The molecules continue working, but with diminishing returns.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 5:48 pm

“The GHE of CO2 is practically played out after the first 200 ppm.”
This exaggerates the curvature of the logarithm. The slope at 400 ppm is half that at 200 ppm. It isn’t nothing.

MarkW
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 7:00 pm

Germino, it would depend entirely on how fast the feedback of the car’s cruise control worked.

MarkW
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 7:01 pm

Nick, as always trying to disprove things nobody said.
By the definition of a logarithmic curve, the difference between two points on the curve will never, ever, be nothing.
However at some point the difference between two points and nothing will be close enough that the difference no longer matters.

Leo Smith
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 8:15 pm

The most common example of a governed system in our lives is the “cruise control” on your car. Does it hold your speed perfectly steady? Of course not. I set it for 60 mph, and as I drive around it varies up or down by around 3 MPH.

Seriously Willis, get a better car. Using a satnav GPS s speedo my cruise control never even registers a one mph difference.

Chimp
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 8:32 pm

Nick Stokes March 24, 2018 at 5:48 pm
I didn’t say it was nothing. Just practically nothing, ie not significant.
The doubling from 200 to 400 ppm would produce warming of 1.2 degrees C without feedbacks. Negligible but wholly beneficial.

Richard M
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 8:48 pm

Germinio states: “Over the last twenty years the CERES data present above suggest the temperature is rising at a rate of 0.1 degree per decade.”
The period starts with a La Nina and ends with El Nino. That is the reason for your trend. Using the complete data set without understanding what is represented can lead to incorrect conclusions.

AJB
March 24, 2018 2:28 pm

“I haven’t a clue. In my opinion, the most important words that anyone studying the climate can learn to say are “I don’t know.””
Well said. All the best to you.
Total intensity as at 2015:
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/Fcolourful.jpg
Predicted annual rate of change of total intensity for 2015 – 2020:
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/dFcolourful.jpg
Blue rags to cans of red bull …
http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/image022.jpgcomment image
Sunlight

mobihci
Reply to  AJB
March 24, 2018 6:22 pm

yes it should be I dont know why mars, pluto and jupiter are warming, instead we get some convoluted story about wind and storms, and orbital shifts over 50 year periods..

AJB
Reply to  mobihci
March 25, 2018 10:35 am

Or satellites flying through magnetic anomalies.

Tom
March 24, 2018 2:31 pm

Willis, the temperature trends at latitude is a chart I’ve not seen before. Very interesting- thanks.

Scott
March 24, 2018 2:40 pm

We

Robertvd
March 24, 2018 3:03 pm

Why has northern Russia warmed in recent years.?
Because more people live there now than ever before. Bigger cities warming the rivers they live next to kept free from ice as long as possible like the sea routes with huge icebreakers to connect those cities.
Looking for power plants?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=so2smass/orthographic=108.68,66.81,1120

Peter
Reply to  Robertvd
March 24, 2018 4:46 pm

Robertvd, March 24, 2018 at 3:03 pm
“Why has northern Russia warmed in recent years.?
Because more people live there now than ever before. Bigger cities warming the rivers they live next to kept free from ice as long as possible like the sea routes with huge icebreakers to connect those cities”.
Actually no! More people do not live in Russia than before. I don’t generally trust Wiki but it will suffice in this case.
“Low birth rates and abnormally high death rates caused Russia’s population to decline at a 0.5% annual rate, or about 750,000 to 800,000 people per year from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s. The UN warned in 2005 that Russia’s then population of about 143 million could fall by a third by 2050, if trends did not improve”.
Demographics of Russia – Wikipedia

ironicman
March 24, 2018 3:07 pm

Could it be a mini bipolar seesaw?

ironicman
Reply to  ironicman
March 24, 2018 5:06 pm

The AMOC is a major player because it connects both poles.
https://www.nature.com/articles/srep08909

JJM Gommers
March 24, 2018 3:10 pm

Deserts and forest are subject to prevailing weather patterns and can be different in cooling/warming.

Gamecock
March 24, 2018 3:27 pm

The Great Pacific Garbage Patch looks really hot.

March 24, 2018 3:29 pm

“On land, northern Russia, parts of the Sahel, the Gobi, and western Australia are warming. On the other hand, the upper Amazon is cooling strongly.”
I have a gadget here which will show trends in surface measurement (either unadjusted or homogenised).It shows various time periods; the nearest to this is 1997-2016. It shows measurement points and the triangular mesh used to interpolate. The original gadget is a trackball like Google Earth. Here is a snapshot of unadjusted data showing N Atlantic, poles, Sahara etccomment image
The N Atlantic cooling does show out. The Sahara warmed, but is part of a band of warming extending from the Arctic through Eastern Europe. The US is a patchwork, mostly showing the variable effect of unadjusted TOBS.

ATheoK
Reply to  Nick Stokes
March 24, 2018 4:18 pm

Nick:
Your image is much warmer than the images Willis displays.
Willis’s graphics show the Northern hemisphere as warming 0.22°C per decade. Your graphic Nick show a temperature over 2.5°C.
Apparently, GHCN V3 and ERSST includes infilling.

Reply to  ATheoK
March 24, 2018 4:43 pm

“Apparently, GHCN V3 and ERSST includes infilling.”
No, I am showing the trends of the stations as marked – ERSST are grid centres. The shading is linear in triangles between correct colors at the nodes.
The trends, as marked, are in °C/Century. So they aren’t that different.

ATheoK
Reply to  ATheoK
March 24, 2018 6:03 pm

Your legend “Deg C/Cent” translates as “Degree Celsius/Centrigrade”.
Not that one can tell exactly what “red” equals, since at 2.5°C the color is yellowish orange. Plus, it looks like the scale is increasing since the distance from 2.0°C to 2.5°C is much smaller than the scale at lower temperatures.
CERES during a warming period runs at 1.2°C.
Once several periods of cooling and warming are properly tracked, there may finally be an accurate rate °C per century.
Way over 2.5°C per Century? Extremely doubtful.
Your graphic states GHCN V3 and ERSST, I simply copied what you listed.
Nor does your answer unequically state that there is not any infilling.
Does that claim of yours “the trends of the stations as marked”, mean you downloaded the station data from the stations?
Or is it the data as entered into the GHCN V3 system by NOAA/NASA

“GHCN V2
Methods for removing inhomogeneities from the data record associated with non-climatic influences such as changes in instrumentation, station environment, and observing practices that occur over time were also included in the version 2 release (Peterson and Easterling, 1994; Easterling and Peterson 1995). Since that time efforts have focused on continued improvements in dataset development methods including new quality control processes and advanced techniques for removing data inhomogeneities (Menne and Williams, 2009)”

“GHCN V3
Both historical and near-real-time GHCN data undergo rigorous quality assurance reviews. These reviews include preprocessing checks on source data, time series checks that identify spurious changes in the mean and variance, spatial comparisons that verify the accuracy of the climatological mean and the seasonal cycle, and neighbor checks that identify outliers from both a serial and a spatial perspective”

It does not appear that “unadjusted” means what you think it means.

Reply to  ATheoK
March 24, 2018 7:37 pm

” mean you downloaded the station data from the stations?”
I used the GHCN V3 tabulation. For these years, that comes directly from the CLIMAT forms, as submitted by the met offices and displayed here.
“It does not appear that “unadjusted” means what you think it means.”
I know very well what it means. I have extensive experience with the set and its errors, as described here. It is unadjusted. Values thought doubtful are flagged, not removed or altered, no matter how ridiculous. Errors are often dramatic, like a sign or decimal point error. In my own work, as here, I removed all quality flagged readings. That is my choice. They are a very small percentage. Details for 2010-2014 with all flagged stations are in that link. There are in total 1101 flagged data (listed in detail) in 53 months, out of about 2000 stations per month.
“Not that one can tell exactly what “red” equals”
If you go to the app, you can click on any station to get name and trend, in numbers. The color scale has to be non-linear, otherwise most of the color range goes to separating the extremes.

Reply to  ATheoK
March 24, 2018 9:38 pm

Sorry to inform you but CERES also infills.

Reg Nelson
Reply to  Nick Stokes
March 24, 2018 7:11 pm

Of course, there are no surface temperature measurements for 75% of the Earth’s surface, so your graphs and analysis are totally worthless and meaningless.

Reply to  Reg Nelson
March 24, 2018 7:40 pm

Of course, you always say no-one knows anything about anything. I use the ERSST data for oceans, used by most climate indices.

Steve Fraser
March 24, 2018 3:37 pm

Does CERES always take 7 months to get a month’s dataset out there? According to the site, the last Version 4 set is from last June.

NW sage
March 24, 2018 3:42 pm

Willis,
In your 3rd chart most of the variance is contained in a band plus or minus 0.2 deg C around nominal. Can this variance band be considered the sum of all errors and uncertainties in the instrumentation and measurement systems used to acquire the original data? It seems possible to me. [But what do I know, I’m just a metallurgist with a failure analysis background].
Good work

RERT
March 24, 2018 3:43 pm

Deserts warming more? Isn’t that what you would expect from increasing CO2 in areas where the water vapour isn’t already soaking up all the OLR?
Willis – do you have the tech to check daytime and nighttime temperature trends from CERES data? It would certainly be interesting if all the trend growth was because if slightly less cold nights..

Thomas C Bakewell
March 24, 2018 4:29 pm

Hi honoured sir! Is there any way you could display your findings on polar stereographic projections for both poles?
Tom Bakewell

March 24, 2018 4:35 pm

“At the end of the story, I’m left with my usual amazement at the stability of the system”
Exactly. A system of finite volume with finite heat flow from a source, will experience a steady state firmly anchored around the mean values. And gh-gases have nothing to do with the temperatures in such a steady state.
The laws of thermodynamcs determines the state, and gh-gases are not included, because they don’t add any energy to temperature.

March 24, 2018 4:35 pm

“At the end of the story, I’m left with my usual amazement at the stability of the system”
Exactly. A system of finite volume with finite heat flow from a source, will experience a steady state firmly anchored around the mean values. And gh-gases have nothing to do with the temperatures in such a steady state.
The laws of thermodynamcs determines the state, and gh-gases are not included, because they don’t add any energy to temperature.

Macha
March 24, 2018 4:57 pm

Once you start averaging tgen detaiks are easily lost. Willis says source is ” pole warming”. Herecomment image decadal changes are confined to seasons. The chart is pretty much why CO2 is an undetectable impact. But perhaps ozone can be. Erl has lots more to say here. https://reality348.files.wordpress.com
Macha

March 24, 2018 5:18 pm

There’s only so many Joules to go around and for one region to cool, another must warm. As for why the N preferentially warms while the S preferentially cools, this could be an artifact of the S receiving more solar energy than the N owing to the alignment of precession with the seasons and/or the relative ratio of land to water between hemispheres.

Chimp
Reply to  co2isnotevil
March 24, 2018 5:30 pm

The SH is 81% seawater; the NH 61%, for the well known global average of 71%.

March 24, 2018 6:30 pm

CERES seems to be responding to moisture. Higher moisture, the cooler.

Richard M
Reply to  Donald Kasper
March 24, 2018 8:53 pm

This could very well be the negative feedback from increasing CO2 predicted by Dr. William Gray.

Warren Blair
Reply to  Richard M
March 24, 2018 10:41 pm

Wait I’ve just got to move a set of goal posts . . . ok now 400 ppm is preventing global cooling!

Michael Carter
March 24, 2018 6:44 pm

I very recently came across a most interesting historical BBC documentary on YouTube. It is about one hour long and covers the 1963 snow blizzard in the UK. It was compiled during the event.
The impact on transportation, food and water distribution, sewage/wastewater and fuel supplies was crippling after but a few weeks. At one stage the commentary makes the point that a Russian weather station above the arctic circle had registered higher temperatures than some recorded in the UK at that time. Interesting.
I don’t know how to find a link for this documentary as it has been pulled from YouTube, possibly due to copyright.
Regards
M

co2islife
March 24, 2018 7:03 pm

Climate Alarmist is Playing San Francisco Judge as a Complete Fool
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/03/25/climate-alarmist-is-playing-san-francisco-judge-as-a-complete-fool/
Dr. Myles Allen must think that the San Francisco Judge is a complete fool. I just finished a post refuting many of his claims, but one example needed to be singled out. In his presentation, Dr. Myles Allen replaced the poster child Mt. Kilimanjaro, which was exposed as a fraud in the Climategate emails, with the Glacier National Park Glacier. He claimed that man-made global warming is the cause of the decline of the glacier.

March 24, 2018 7:05 pm

So upward radiation increased near the N pole and decreased around the southern ocean, perhaps because of changes in the frequency and duration of cloud cover? Perhaps because of changes in heat carried to and above the Cloud Condensation Level? Something else? That’s something, but I don’t see it having any straightforward implication. It reads like the start of an investigation, where you confirm that you can download, manipulate, and graph data. If it’s real, and your analysis suggests that it is, then it is worth pursuing.

March 24, 2018 7:33 pm

Willis writes, “what is of note in these global maps? Well, both the poles are unusual.”
I think an important part of the difference between the two poles is because of the north polar and south polar snow and ice albedo differences. The south polar snow and ice is pristine. The northern is covered with a very fine layer of soot, sometimes more.
The melting from the soot albedo change causes additional albedo change and warming, a positive feedback. Look at the photographs of Greenland dirty ice and snow.-
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/09/why-greenland-dark-snow-should-worry-you/

Reply to  Doug Allen
March 24, 2018 9:36 pm

from the datasets data quality manual
“Because of the degradation of Terra water vapor chanles that affects cloud retrievals
starting around 2008, downward longwave flux anomalies over polar regions shows
downward trend (see Section 4.5). Therfore, trend analyses with surface fluxes over
polare regions from Ed4 EBAF-surface should be avoided.”

Reply to  Doug Allen
March 25, 2018 9:06 am

How does this jive with temp profiles for the Arctic which show virtually all warming during the winter season, when there is no insolation to be absorbed by any soot. Might melt some snow/ice during high sun, but obviously has little effect on summer temps.

March 24, 2018 8:08 pm

Glad to see you using that data.
when you use data you implicitly accept the physics used to create the data
https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/products.php?product=EBAF-Surface
so, ya that means accepting radiative transfer theory.
What’s the purpose of this adjusted dataset?
“EBAF-Surface is for climate model evaluation, estimating the Earth’s global mean energy budget and to infer meridional heat transport.”
Looking at the processing steps is always important
https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/science_information.php?page=CeresTempInterp
https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/science_information.php?page=CeresComputeFlux
https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/science_information.php?page=EBAFbalance
and its always good toi note the uncertainties in the fundamental data that the modelled surface data derives from
https://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/project/ceres/quality_summaries/ssf_toa_terra_ed2B.pdf
Usually I have found when using most satellite products for surface data that the devil is in the details.
and in the details its models and assumptions and adjustments all the way down.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 24, 2018 11:28 pm

when did I ever say you didnt?
I make a note, More for the Other readers than for you.
when I think YOU dont accept radiative theory I will say “Willis you dont accept it”
I knew you would try to put words in my mouth. I merely note, that IF you accept the data, then you implicity accept the physics. SOME skeptics who love satillte data dont get this

Richard M
March 24, 2018 8:56 pm

If we look closely at the data you will it is almost a perfect match to the UAH satellite data product. Different sources giving similar results.

John Robertson
March 24, 2018 9:14 pm

Interesting Map.
Stability of this water world is indeed amazing, funny how well water in its various states does such a beautiful job of keeping this planet..green.
Are these trends,warming or cooling actually significant?
What are the error bars, of CERES?
I did follow the link to their web site,however this information eluded my weak search.
So do we know it is warming for sure,in these places no one lives or no one cares?
How do we establish a trend line where data is so slim?
I live at 62 degrees North.
The Canadian Government has relocated nearly all Arctic temperature sensors to Airports since the 1990s, the manned remote stations are all closed.
These airstrips are all now paved, most were still gravel not too long ago.
Yellowknife Airport just relocated the weather station to the wind shadow of the terminal building and surrounded it with black dirt.
I am sure this station will show unusual warming, especially last summer when the dirt had no vegetation.
But being now sheltered from the prevailing wind, I expect to see another “unprecedented” Arctic temperature increase recorded by this station.
How far south do we have to look before ;”Don’t know,couldn’t say for sure” does not apply?

March 24, 2018 9:19 pm

CERES clear sky TOA data shows no reduction in radiation to space, either LW or net.comment image
CO2 remains when clouds are gone. Not looking good for CO2.

March 24, 2018 9:34 pm

As always RTFM
https://ceres.larc.nasa.gov/documents/DQ_summaries/CERES_EBAF-Surface_Ed4.0_DQS.pdf
“Because of the degradation of Terra water vapor [sic] chanles that affects cloud retrievals
starting around 2008, downward longwave flux anomalies over polar regions shows
downward trend (see Section 4.5). Therfore, trend analyses with surface fluxes over
polare regions from Ed4 EBAF-surface should be avoided.”

Stephen Richards
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 25, 2018 2:04 am

That would have been a very special Toyota, willis. There weren’t many cars on general sale that had cruise. You mostly had to pay for the option. My 2007 E class had it as an option.

RAH
March 24, 2018 10:49 pm

In the experience of this truck driver, at least 30% of drivers don’t know how to even engage cruise control let alone use it properly.

bill hunter
March 24, 2018 11:04 pm

“To me, this is clear evidence of strong thermoregulatory systems”. Yep its name is SUN. Its not clear to me if you are seeing anything else. The concept of blackbody equilibrium suggests a natural oscillation around that point due to both diurnal and seasonal variations. Pretty much the same likely for ocean oscillations like ENSO and multi-decadal ones if indeed they are oscillations that over time establish their own natural time delays, for instance living near the Pacific Ocean the coldest month is February about 2 months beyond the least sun. About the same thing at the other end in June max sun, August max temperature. As regular as those changes are why would we expect a bump in the anomaly that we don’t already see?

Stephen Richards
March 25, 2018 2:01 am

Nor is this due to “thermal inertia” as many people claim.
The one thing that has troubled me for decade. It is obvious to any observer that there is very little inertia. Yes, the ENSO leaves a ‘taste in the mouth’ for more than a year and an SSW appears to create an atmospheric image for a few months. so What causes ice ages? What is it that changes the global temperature by 3 to 5 °C and holds it while glaciers SLOWLY build.
Thanks Willis. Great post again.

bill hunter
Reply to  Stephen Richards
March 25, 2018 5:30 am

Its pretty clear to me that you could probably tune an ice and ocean inertia model to explain the approximate 2 to 3 degrees warming since the end of the Maunder Minimum in approximately 1700 using global glacial ice change and an ocean uptake (inertia) model. Some of the longterm instrument records show a rapid warming occurring in a few decades after the Maunder Minimum, this could be a rapid warming of the surface ocean that reduced low latitude and low elevation ice. The warming then flattened until interrupted temporarily for a short period by the Dalton Minimum. After brief recovery post 1815 temp increases from the LIA (500 years of cooling) then another flattening to the mid 19th century during which period global glaciers continued to increase and increase surface albedo. Then in the mid-19th century glacial advance reversed into retreat allowing climate warming to dominate from the underlying ocean inertia. The 500 years of cooling from 1200 to 1700 could take as long to reverse back out with the same intensity things cooled and drove the Vikings out of Greenland from glacial advance as far back as 1300 to 1400 from the more distant settlements. That would put on a model the warmed as fast as it cooled warming from ocean inertia until 2200. Its hard to put values on it lacking early temperature records from the Medieval Warm Period but today they are assumed to be comparable by some studies to day plus or minus a degree or so. The only criticism of the idea of an extended LIA recovery was the flat period from the mid part of the first half of the 18th century until the mid 19th century. So an explanation is needed for that and glacial advance and retreat data overlies it very nicely chronologically. All thats left to do is argue the actual degree effects which can probably be tuned in quite nicely. Of course even today we are not measuring what it happening in the lower 3/4ths of the ocean so as one study put it we are probably today a 1,000 years or more away from a data record that would demonstrate that.

Reply to  bill hunter
March 25, 2018 9:26 am

The ocean is the tortoise and the atmosphere the hare.

Non Nomen
March 25, 2018 2:03 am

A bit off-topic, probably: In 1950, world population was about 2.5 bn. In 2018 the population has risen to 7.5 bn. The average body temperature is 36.5 to 37.2° C. Today, there are 5 bn people more on this little planet that heat it up. “AGW” is said to be on the rise. Is there a correlation or even a causation?

Stephen Richards
Reply to  Non Nomen
March 25, 2018 2:05 am

Population numbers are socialism scare stories. Have you noticed by how many billions it has risen in the last 5 years?
It’s a finger in the air number.

Non Nomen
Reply to  Stephen Richards
March 25, 2018 2:12 am

I completely agree with your scare story. But IF there were numbers that might show that a good part of the alleged AGW is due to humans heating up the atmosphere, then Co2 alone can”t be blamed any longer.

Reply to  Non Nomen
March 25, 2018 2:22 am

7.5 billion people would generate about 750 GW body heat. Surface area of Earth is about 5e14 m2. So that is about 1.5 milliwatts/sq m. Not much compared with radiative forcing of 2-3 watts/m2.

Non Nomen
Reply to  Nick Stokes
March 25, 2018 4:39 am

Thanks!

Macha
Reply to  Nick Stokes
March 25, 2018 3:55 pm

Which is undetectable from 50W/m2 from the surface, which changes with moisture content. Forget CO2.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
March 27, 2018 3:17 pm

And that 1.5 mW/m2 is retarded energy from the Sun. Also not much compared with the average global heat flux from the Earth’s interior of 91 mW/m2.

March 25, 2018 2:34 am

Dear Willis, “Despite being controlled by things as evanescent as winds, waves, and clouds, the temperature anomaly doesn’t vary more than about two-tenths of a degree.” Given the stable climate conditions, it may be better to state: Because being controlled by things…… As nature is regulated by chaotic processes from molecular level up, averaging each other in impact, the end result. the macro world as we experience it, must nearly by definition be rather stable; variations with 0.2 – 0.3 degrees.

March 25, 2018 2:41 am

As I’ve been saying, Tmin is regulated on the cooling side at night to limit how cold it gets by water vapor, just as W found a relationship with max ssts, and day time T max.
https://micro6500blog.wordpress.com/2016/12/01/observational-evidence-for-a-nonlinear-night-time-cooling-mechanism/

Julien
March 25, 2018 4:23 am

As usual, the strongest variations happen in places where the data is lacking the most. Heavy interpolation going on. Still, the cooling shown for the southern oceans contradicts the rapid melting of ice caps shown by satellite pictures for the kerguelen islands for example. But the rapid melting can also be explained by weather factors.

oppti
March 25, 2018 5:00 am

You are 60 years behind the research team visiting Svalbard:
https://archive.org/details/glaciervariation00ahlm
The noted a substantial change in temperatures from 1900 to 1930. 6 degrees Celcius at Svalbard.
Very similar as today.
They even tried to make a global map where to find this change.
The current knowledge has to upgrade the knowledge of currents.

Crispin in Waterloo but really in Ulaanbaatar
March 25, 2018 5:24 am

Richard M
Don’t forget to add that increasing the CO2 concentration increases the emissivity of the atmosphere.
It is interesting that back radiation gets frequent mention but not the ‘greyness’ of the body of the atmosphere. Without GHG’s, the atmosphere couldn’t cool by radiation at all. It would be heated by the surface and stay that way.
A desert that has higher temperatures could just have lower humidity and the same energy input. The enthalpy (total energy) in the atmosphere above the desert is the correct number to watch. I realise it is fashionable to talk of temperatures only, but that is a technically not how to think about energy gain and retention (etc). Equally, the Amazon could be cooler simply by having a higher average humidity, not a lower energy input or higher emittance.

Vic Pearson
March 25, 2018 5:36 am

As you all know a little knowledge is dangerous. From the discussion between what it seems to knowledgeable scientists the opposite may also be true leading to a battle of egos rather than an objective debate ?

Area Man
March 25, 2018 5:55 am

“the Earth abides…”.
Love it.

March 25, 2018 6:22 am

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_see-saw
Polar see-saw
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The polar see-saw (also: Bipolar seesaw) is the phenomenon that temperature changes in the northern and southern hemispheres may be out of phase. The hypothesis states that large changes, for example when the glaciers are intensely growing or depleting, in the formation of ocean bottom water in both poles take a long time to exert their effect in the other hemisphere. Estimates of the period of delay vary, one typical estimate is 1500 years. This is usually studied in the context of ice-cores taken from Antarctica and Greenland.

Barry Hoffman
March 25, 2018 6:33 am

Did anyone notice the Himalayas, average height 20,000+/- feet, are getting colder? Latitude 28*N.

Chimp
Reply to  Barry Hoffman
March 25, 2018 10:06 am

And glaciers in that region are growing, both from more precipitation and cooler temperatures. So much for the IPCC’s ill-founded prediction of glacier disappearance.
On balance, the whole world has been cooling for about a decade, a fact obscured by the big ENSO swing of 2016, which blew off a lot of oceanic heat, thus contributing to further future cooling.

Chimp
Reply to  Chimp
March 25, 2018 11:11 am

Some say two decades, since the late ’90s.

March 25, 2018 6:40 am

Unlike the Mother Jones use of the photography of Greenland’s dirty ice and snow to promote “worry” and activism to reduce CO2 emissions, I think the northern polar dirty ice and snow is an example of significant AGW, a first order forcing, unrelated to the GHG first order forcing. With the great percentage of land in the northern hemisphere and even greater percentage of industry, we’ve changed the albedo and melt rate in the northern polar area, but not the south.
In addition to the albedo change, when ocean ice melts, exposing the darker water, there may also be additional second order surface changes. Polar water seldom warms much above 32 F degrees as extra heat energy melts ice before raising water temperatures. Therefore, I hypothesize that areas of soot covering snow and ice may often be the warmest north polar surface areas with melting and sublimation below the areas of soot. Surface areas that are warmer than surrounding areas are areas of low pressure because warm air rises. Wind occurs because of pressure differentials. If my hypothesis is correct, then changes in surface pressure and winds (and therefore weather patterns) result from the dirty snow and ice you see pictured here-
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/09/why-greenland-dark-snow-should-worry-you/

Earthling2
Reply to  Doug Allen
March 25, 2018 11:24 am

Not to mention a whole fleet of Russian Ice Breakers that are busting up the Siberian northern Arctic Ocean on an annual basis now for the last 30+ years, which causes it to melt quicker every summer. There are a lot of ‘additive’ processes that humans are introducing to the natural environment over and above CO2 that get barley no mention. Especially in the Northern Hemisphere where the majority of humans and industrial activity is, with a much larger land mass at near sea level, Greenland notwithstanding.

Gunnar Strandell
March 25, 2018 9:42 am

Willis,
I like to have a close look at the graphed data before they are transformed and I notice that the variations in the cold season lowest temperature is larger than the variations in the higher. Perhaps it indicates the presence of a thermostat. I don’t know.
But the view that a the resulting anomaly should indicate hotter weather on the hottest days need to be questioned.

donald penman
March 25, 2018 10:03 am

I keep using these surface temperature readings as far as I know they reflect what is happening globally very well and that is what I am interested in because trends are often just meaningless statistics without any physical prespective
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Current.aspx

March 25, 2018 10:58 am

Maybe the temperature is so stable because it is determined by atmospheric mass and not greenhouse gases.

ren
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
March 25, 2018 1:50 pm

Willis Eschenbach if my words have meaning to you, congratulations your article.
Stephen Wilde regards.

Macha
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
March 25, 2018 3:57 pm

Keep telling them SWilde… +100

Earthling2
March 25, 2018 12:03 pm

“So … what is of note in these global maps? Well, both the poles are unusual. The area around Antarctica is cooling strongly, and the Arctic is warming. Presumably, this is why we’re getting less sea ice in the North and more sea ice in the South. It also affects the hemispheric averages, with the Northern Hemisphere warming and the Southern Hemisphere basically unchanging.”
The Earth spends less time near perihelion and more time near aphelion. This means that the lengths of the seasons vary. Perihelion currently occurs around January 3, so the Earth’s greater velocity shortens winter and autumn in the northern hemisphere. Summer in the northern hemisphere is 4.66 days longer than winter, and spring is 2.9 days longer than autumn. And correspondingly the same less in the Southern Hemisphere, meaning 7+ more days of fall and winter in SH. In Antarctica, where it is a high elevation continent covered in perpetual ice, (unchanging Albedo) surrounded by the southern ocean that rapidly gains ice every SH winter, therefore self reinforcing on an annual basis.
Obviously, present day orbital mechanics govern this as Kepler’s second law states, but when natural variation is cold, such as the LIA, then it is mostly frozen over and Albedo is reflecting incoming insolation and little warming to be had, but when things warm naturally, or with assistance from human kind in many industrial ways the last 150 years, then less Albedo as more ice melts leading to earlier springs and less time in NH snow cover. And given most of the NH Arctic is closer to sea level (Greenland notwithstanding) as is a majority of the land in the NH, and additional to humankind industrial inputs, then it is only logical that the NH is more sensitive to to solar and human forcing, than the SH.
This is part of the obvious reason why the Northern Hemisphere is warming and the Southern Hemisphere basically unchanging. There are dozen’s of other natural processes going on, but I think this explains why more current Northern Hemisphere warming presently, and why we have registered net warming the last 150 years because sensitivity to warmer is presently much greater in the NH than the SH.

March 25, 2018 12:23 pm

Re: “In my opinion, the most important words that anyone studying the climate can learn to say are “I don’t know.”

“The most elementary and valuable statement in science, the beginning of wisdom, is, ‘I do not know.’”

Jack B. Sowards (screenwriter), voiced by Lt Cdr Data< (Brent Spiner).

Frank
March 25, 2018 3:09 pm

Willis wrote: “As you can see, the only parts of the planet where the temperature is changing much are the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, and the area above the Arctic Circle” .. Go Figure.
Interestingly, the Arctic and Antarctic are both linked through downwelling into the deep ocean. If total downwelling were limited by the requirement that the sum matches total upwelling, then a slowing of downwelling in the Antarctic would be accompanied by a increase in downwelling in the Arctic. Increased downwelling in the Arctic would lead to import of more warm water from temperature regions on the surface and Arctic warming. Decreased downwelling in the Antarctic would lead to less import of warm water and cooling.
IIRC, a see-saw of this sort has been hypothesized to function during the very warm periods (+10? degC) observed in Greenland ice cores (and Antarctic ice cores) during the last ice age. Likewise, warming took place much earlier in Antarctica than Greenland as the last ice age ended.
When looking for a reference, I found that Chylek has made some of the same observations you report here, except he covers the whole 20th century.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010GL042793
Paragraph [16] of that paper covers references to the seesaw observed during the last ice age in ice cores.

Frank
Reply to  Frank
March 25, 2018 3:10 pm

Chylek’s data is not as clean as yours.

weltklima
March 25, 2018 5:57 pm

Willis, I recommended my paper part 8 (EIGHT) which deals with
the time period 1600 AD to 2050 AD, the present time, at
http://www.knowledgeminer.eu/climate-papers.html
Instead of checking THIS PAPER, you selected ANOTHER ONE, wiily-nilly
and only made arrogant remarks over part 7 (SEVEN).. This time I will
write the number in letters, for your better visibility…….. It seems, age is
taking its toll, if you do not notice to be in a completely other (550 AD to
1650 AD) time period.
Is this your way of analyzing papers, not seeing that you are within
a different Holocene time?
Hopefully, Anthony does not notice that you start to have difficulties
with numbers………well, we all get old? I will give you a second
chance with paper PART 8 (EIGHT).. and please feed in the period
lengths, the period length increase of 6.93 years and the period
amplitude factor, which is also given, starting 8108 BC and remaining
steady for over 10,000 years……
The paper NUMBER EIGHT is interesting….it covers the time until 2050,
which you were asking for to comment…… xx..

Yogi Bear
March 25, 2018 6:34 pm

“The El Nino of 2016-2017 is quite visible … but”
But there was no 2016-2017 El Nino.

Reply to  Yogi Bear
March 25, 2018 6:45 pm
Chimp
Reply to  Yogi Bear
March 25, 2018 7:00 pm

Will you buy 2015-16, with pronounced lingering effects into 2017?
Sheesh! Picky, picky, picky!

Yogi Bear
Reply to  Chimp
March 26, 2018 8:06 am

I don’t need to buy anything, it’s an error, Willis should have written 2015-2016.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 26, 2018 4:56 am

Willis wrote to weltklima, “In addition, you’ve proposed a total impossibility—a “cosmic lunar meteor impact” … you say that “this impact displaced the Earth-Moon Barycenter (EMB)”, and then you say it “then spirals back in 4 complete loops onto its regular EMB flight path around the Sun”.
I’m sorry to be so blunt, but that is pseudo-scientific nonsense.”

Willis is right. That is impossible nonsense — a violation of conservation of angular momentum, to be specific. Orbiting bodies cannot “spiral” unless something is exerting drag on them (like an atmosphere).

weltklima
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 26, 2018 1:11 pm

Willis, you are aware that in climate science some major importent variables are missing and that the IPCC list with internal variables is uncomplete…. and there must be some other external forcing which governs our climate and explains the about 400 year long climate movement up and down: CWP – LIA – MWP – LALIA – RWP – Greek cold…..etc. This about 400 year climate wave up and down is historical knowledge (before your time) of the Old Greeks, There exist a preserved letter of Solon in Greece to the Pharao (300 BC), in which he described this multi-centennial observation and this, temp/climate up and down continued after Solon, see the above described climate up and down……. The regularity of this centennial movement points to external causes, which are not the Sunspots, but rather Earth Orbital Changes. For this reason, the climate came out of the deep, cold LIA in the 17 Cty and will peak (at 2048-49) in the 21st century, continuing this up- and down cycle……this is the message of my paper Holocene part 8, which you are unwilling to read.
I call this attitude LEARNRESISTENT. Especially you know NOTHING about the osculating, oscillating, “perturbating” Earth orbit around the Sun, which is the cause for this centennial climate change…..
Instead, you walk in circles, over and over getting stuck in the IPCC nonsensical internal “climate causes” and falsifying what is false to recognize without computer check…..
You are victim of the IPCC AR4 ploy in 2006 to point to 20,000 + -year Milankovitch exclusively and thus aiming at COVERING UP of ALL annual. decadal and centennial Earth orbital changes….. and you are a stout believer of IPCC nonsensical ploy. Climate relevant are the OSCULATIONS, (Oscillations, Perturbations) of the Earth orbit. ….and you reject to look into the matter, because you are a true victim of the ploy and my booklet would be over your head anyway, this is, what you feel…..but it is written with extra care for the normal citizen without previous Earth orbital knowledge.
I had a fruitful Email exchange with the Milankovitch coryphea Andre Berger (Louvain Uni), who ADMITTED the oscillations, even ordered my booklet, but we could not get further, becaus JPL Pasadena, close to you where you live, keep the (I believe as part of Hanson NASA GISS) – or other reasons, the astrophysical Osculation values of the Earth Orbit.SECRET…. (I resorted to good historical measurements). If you were able to get those osculation distances, place the distance variations between Sun and Earth in a forcing system of x Watts/1 million km perturbation (as in my booklet) then you will get the temp increase out of the LIA into the present CWP. you will recognize the temp max in 2048-49 AD….
But you rather prisoner in you circle of dwelling in internal IPCC forcings and leave all the WUWT readers in limbo, why global temps increase, stay flat, go down and you then you WONDER HOW global temps continue after the present plateau…and admit not being able to make a senseful forcast as I did in part 8, based on sound physical astrophysical values, continuing the work of Newton, Gauss and Leibnitz, which you are unwilling to accept. Too bad for you, not for me, because truth will always prevail…. cheers from Mexico ..JS
[Reformatted to eliminate spurious line breaks … -w.]

weltklima
March 25, 2018 7:06 pm

To ATheoK Mar 24, 3:53
Theo, your “”many claims, no proof” and “How is the Moon impact proven?”
only shows that you are an IGNORANT, NOT READING the paper….. You ask
for prove to be GIVEN IN AN ABSTRACT,
but the RULES of abstract writing is NOT GIVING PROVE in the 300 words
available for abstract writing…… no understanding of science, typical troll
behaviour….too bad, not even worth my time to reply…..sorry JS..

weltklima
March 25, 2018 8:14 pm

To Willis comment . “”Here’s the bar that you need to clear:
“One way, and this is the way I prefer, is to have a clear physical picture of the
process that you are calculating. The other way is to have a precise and
self-consistent mathematical formalism. You have neither.”
Willis, first of all you do NOT READ my papers, just the abstracts…..
There is both a clear physical picture of the process, physically EXPLAINED
over 109 pages long in my booklet available. .
We are dealing here with an 8 part Holocene series dedicated to
DEMONSTRATING THE EMPIRICAL PROOF AND THE CONSISTENCE
of proposed calculations ………. and ALL other climate authors do never
start from scratch in their papers, with theoretical calculations from the
beginning. I can/will not in EVERY PAPER SHOW the physical-theoretical
Earth orbital background ANEW and anew, the papers would get too long…..
sorry folks……
To reiterate once again: The physical process are clear, the necessary
calculations were made and remain unrefuted since 2011…..the physical
base of those calculations is the calculations of Earth Orbital Oscillations
(EOO) WHICH arise by the OSCULATING ..yes, OSCULATION ….flight of
Earth in its orbit around the Sun.
Famous osculation calculations started with the mathematicians G.W. Leibniz
and Carl Gauss, he observed the sky for 4 years and developed the Least
Squares Method based on those orbital osculation calculations……..
Prof. Foster (UK), who participated in the preparations of AR4, 2007, told
me how they cheered and embraced themselves in the meeting after deciding
to rig climate science by separating the EOO out and focussing on internal
forcing… this was BTY…. .
I think you are slowly loosing it: Instead of being interested in NEW papers,
which include the EOO and HAVE NOVELTY VALUE with CALCULATED
PROCESSES (I am not the handwaving Javier cycle type and I am
interested only in ORIGINARY RESEARCH). I read ALL of your post for
many years, and I noticed (you do not) that years before you did good
novelty work with the thermostat and volcano papers ……and
what are you doing now? Falsifyiing IPCC papers which we ALL know
from the start that they are false..come on…writing about old hats……..
You NEVER read a paper of mine to the end…because you are missing
the EOO background and you are NOT INCLINED to learn something
NEW….. “”WHAT YOU NEVER HEARD OF, MUST BE WRONG”””….
I know many LEARNRESISTENT types….. too bad, you joined …
cheers anyway, some of you work keeps up very good
and is very readable……….. you made up your mind, no problem…..xx.
.

weltklima
March 25, 2018 8:42 pm

To Chimp, reply 24.3. 8:42 pm
“Chimp” …Nomen es Omen….. the Holocene series, paper 1 to 8 covers the
entire 10,000 years of Holocene in A SEQUENCIAL ROW…..
http://www.knowledgeminer.eu/climate-papers.html
The novelty is that each and EVERY temp spike was analyzed, which no other
author did or dared to achieve until now over such a long period…..the prevailing
verdict of Holocene studies is “Holocene conundrum” ….. therefore all studies
select shorter, maximum 3 millenia temp spans, in order to omit the difficult parts…
..I had to brake the 10,000 years into 8 consecutive segments….
and the Holocene, part 7, and the one before, part 6, were the most difficult
of climate pattern recognition. and need the knowledge of paper part 1 or 2
at least……
Willis as well never saw a continuous Holocene time series and ask me
to PROVE EVERY PHYSICAL BACKGROUND and formula IN EACH
CONSECUTIVE paper anew…… this is ridiculous, even the warmist papers
DO NOT develop the CO2-meme IN EVERY PAPER FROM SCRATCH…
. therefore, read at first the preceeding papers
before commenting senseless about Holocene end timespan papers……
So you felt to throw in your 5 cents worth…..”short 1,000 year period”……
are you the chimp? There are the 7 other time intervals already on-line.
What are you talking about?
Get serious! JS.

Chimp
Reply to  weltklima
March 25, 2018 8:59 pm

Wow,
Al I can say is.
Wow! Like wow!

weltklima
March 25, 2018 8:57 pm

To Willis:
Willis, convince Anthony to publish PART 8 (not the preceeding papers 1 – 7), which will
achieve the following:
(1) Answer your question of the temp evolution until 2050 WITH CALCULATIONS
PROVIDED …..
(2) Let the folks decide whether they want the full physical -Earth orbit mechanical
background…..
(3) fresh approach to the stuck climate science, even you reached a dead end in forecasting
(4) since AGW/CO2 is clearly wrong, ALL hidden possibilities BASED ON CALCULATIONS,
PROVIDING figures and reproducible numbers should have a place on the table instead of
only proving IPCC and climate sensitivity ARE WRONG and leaving the folks
EMPTY-HANDED and guessing into wrong directions. This is unfair.
cheers Jo.

weltklima
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
March 26, 2018 11:41 pm

No problem, Willis….. you are a free person and you are allowed to defend your
right to NOT READING papers, but skim an abstract and know already
the paper´s worth….. I will let you have your right to ignorance…. as you mentioned
your school pupil days, please add that you had the same attitude of not
wanting to read NEW knowledge long before, no academic interest…..and
consequently, you became fisherman, where you had to deal only with fish,
big and small, head and tail, and a few numbers: the catch in pounds……
Good choice. I am particulary impressed by your astronomical Earth Orbital
knowledge, which you pull out of your sleeve since your high school days.
Well, too bad, some people really waste their talents – but if that is what
you want, its fine with me. Regards Jo.

John Niclasen
March 26, 2018 1:11 am

the upper Amazon is cooling strongly. So it looks like some (but not all) deserts are warming, and some (but not all) tropical forests are cooling … why?

AR5, WG1 kapitel 9.
http://thumbsnap.com/s/rlhIrW5H.png
Figure 9.28 | (a): Annual mean visible aerosol optical depth (AOD) for 2001 through 2005 using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) version 5 satellite retrievals for ocean regions (Remer et al., 2008) with corrections (Zhang et al., 2008a; Shi et al., 2011) and version 31 of MISR retrievals over land (Zhang and Reid, 2010; Stevens and Schwartz, 2012).
There is a lot of aerosols from pollen above Amazonas.
Did the amount of aerosols change over the years?
Did the cloud-cover change over the years?
Answers to those questions could be some of the answer to your “why?”.

John Niclasen
Reply to  John Niclasen
March 26, 2018 1:17 am

There are a lot of aerosols from pollen above Amazonas.
(English is not my first language. If I correct myself, there is less chance, I make the mistake again.)

paqyfelyc
Reply to  John Niclasen
March 26, 2018 4:18 am

Don’t bother to correct yourself on this one. Natives don’t, unless “grammar nazis”, who do not even agree with each other. https://www.englishforums.com/English/TherePeople/hqmk/post.htm

Chimp
Reply to  John Niclasen
March 26, 2018 2:27 pm

You had it right the first time. “A lot” takes a singular verb. “Of aerosols” modifies the subject of the sentence, ie “lot”.

weltklima
March 26, 2018 12:07 pm

To Dave Burton , 26. Mar 4:56
Dave, I am dedicated to the Earth orbit for almost 20 years……. while you heard
something that “angular momentum” exists in the world….
Why do you want to throw in your 5 cents worth without knowing the course of the´
Earths flight around the Sun? ….. Every astronomer KNOWS that the forward movement
of the Earth, which is carrying out its elliptic MEAN PATH has the FORM OF AN SPIRAL….
THE Moon as well SPIRALLES around Earth [“libration”] …..The SPIRAL IS THE GRAND
MOVEMENT OF EARTH AND MOON, not to mention the other planets….Because of
spiralling, the Earth orbit is an OSCULATING ORBIT MOVEMENT and, as on a ship
moving in high sea, the stars are called “Osculating elements”, because they move up
and down with the waves..(thus with the oscillating orbit)…..
You fell victim, just as Willis did, to the IPCC ploy of 2006 (whilst setting up AR4) to
suppress the public mentioning of Earth orbital movements ON ANNUAL, DECADAL
AND CENTENNIAL SCALE……They agreed to mention/concentrate/air/comment/
ONLY on MULTICENTENNIAL (minimum 19,000 yr) Earth and Earth orbital
movements and EXCLUSIVELY DWELL ON THOSE…. [“Milankovitch cycles]. The
whole Milankovitch stuff almost is a scam with THE AIM and INTENTION of
COVERING UP the OSCULATING SPIRALLING MOVEMENT OF EARTH…..
Because this ploy to cover up the annual Earth orbit orcillation functioned very
well, as they colluded in 2006, Willis has 1. never heard of this 2. Willis is not
open to accept it, 3. Willis is constantly offending me, when I bring up the EOO
subject 4. Willis is on the meme: I have not heard it…so it must be wrong 5, He
knows that he rehearses always the same old opera and fights against any NEW
THOUGHT, stuck in his old thinking unwillig to learn something NEW…..
….. and if you write to Jet Prop. Lab in Pasadena to hand you their DAILY
OSCULATION list, they have order to keep ti secret (I asks various times in the
past – no reply from this guys)….. For this reason, I use as physical measurements
observations made before NASA-GISS-JPL…..
My advice: Study the osculating (or oscillation or “perturbation” advance of Earth
and stay away from the “Knowing All”-attitude. Cheers J.
.
…….

Reply to  weltklima
March 26, 2018 1:17 pm

weltklima, perhaps that you don’t know what the word “spiral” means. Here’s the definition:
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/spiral
“…A spiral is a shape which winds round and round, with each curve above or outside the previous one…”
If a cataclysmic impact of some object with the Moon or Earth were to change their orbits, their orbits would stay changed. They would not spiral back to their old orbits.

Reply to  daveburton
March 26, 2018 11:20 pm

to Dave Burton: Dave, lets stop the conversation…..You are a high school student, trying
to look smart…….. you need to read about the Earth orbit and how gravitational forces act
onto Earth, Moon and planets. Cheers Js.

Reply to  daveburton
March 26, 2018 11:26 pm

Dave Burton is right. It goes back to Kepler that orbits are ellipses (or more generally conic sections). Newton explained why. A spiral is not a conic section.

Gary Pearse
March 26, 2018 1:48 pm

Equatorial “tropical forests cooling”….
I’ve talked about this before. I suspect greening of the planet makes some contribution to cooling. It is an endothermic process and it coincided with the “pause”. In 2012 forest cover expanded 14% in 30 yrs and is ongoing. I recall reading that earths trees number 3 trillion, i.e. 14% means 420B new trees avg ~ 15yrs old, some 200kg/tree carbon sequestered or~80GT in 30 yrs, say by 2018 100GT Carb. Assuming “heat” sequestered equivalent to 120% that amount of anthracite energy content (40GJ/MT)~4TJ.
It is a remarkable fact that this greening, the only climate change thats unequivocal, gets scant mention by the science. Of course this absolute proof of real climate change comes at a cost- the greening (doubled harvests, increased habitat, conservation of water and diversity) makes carbon emissions a huge net benefit rather than a cost. We would perhaps owe a premium to the fossil fuel industry! If the math is correct, it is conservative because, to my mind, the greening would be exponential.

paqyfelyc
Reply to  Gary Pearse
March 27, 2018 5:06 am

You are right in that photosynthesis is the blind spot of climate. “Earth energy budget” is wrong on this one.
FAO ( http://www.fao.org/docrep/w7241e/w7241e06.htm#TopOfPage ) use a 2 kg CO2 ~ 30 MJ, that’s 55 MJ / kg C, so 100 Gt C would be ~ 5.5TJ. Your estimate (100 Gt C) seems correct, provided you don’t mean just live trees, as most of them are now dead and slowly decaying in the soil.
Because :
carbon cycle estimates (official science, so to speak) are that, roughly, of all anthropogenic carbon (~350 Gt as of now)
* ~45% is still in the atmosphere
* ~1/3 has been turned into plants, part still alive, most now dead in the soil.
* ~1/5 sunk down the oceans
Of the ~120 Gt turned into plants, most of it is now dead in the soil, slowly decaying. Then again, we can estimate the still living part as per the “consensus climate science”, which says that anthropogenic contribution is an increase of 3 Gt uptake (123 Gt instead of 120 Gt), which is 2.5%, and 2.5% of 550 Gt plants is ~14 Gt.

March 27, 2018 7:44 am

Willis Eschenbach sez:
“In my opinion, the most important words
that anyone studying the climate
can learn to say are “I don’t know.” ”
My comment:
In my opinion,
that true statement
moves Willis Eschenbach
up one notch, from a
good writer of scientific articles,
to a great writer.
In my opinion,
the highest possible level
of knowledge in climate science
is self awareness (“I don’t know”),
coupled with the ability to refute the
IPCC’s “CO2 controls the climate”,
and will cause runaway warming,
which is just wild guess speculation.
Mr. Eschenbach has reached the highest level.
Some people who can refute the IPCC conclusions
think they have to provide a better conclusion
about climate change — their own theory,
and often their own climate prediction too.
But it is easier just to refute the IPCC,
without claiming you have a better theory,
and a better prediction of the future climate,
because your theory and prediction are very
likely to be proven wrong.
“Modern” climate science is based
on a prediction of the future climate,
that we are supposed to believe
because it is stated with great confidence
by government bureaucrats
and politicians
year after year …
in spite of them providing
30 years of wrong climate predictions,
as strong evidence the future climate
can’t be predicted, other than saying
“It will change”.
My climate change blog:
http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com

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