Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK:By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Sea Level Hockey Stick? Judith Curry continues her excellent analysis of sea level rise and the need to assure against false conclusions. Unfortunately, too many “experts” have drawn conclusions from preliminary data even before errors in measurement and calculations were fully resolved. As with early calculations of temperatures from satellite data, early errors in the measurement and calculations lead to skepticism for the entire method of measurements. For science to advance, one must recognize that errors, though not desirable, must be expected, then corrected. For satellite temperature data, minor changes in orbits were not originally recognized, but when recognized, calculations were changed accordingly.
Unfortunately, many of the same organizations that ignore comprehensive temperature calculations from satellite data, independently verified by balloon data, made long-term calculations of sea level rise from early satellite data. These calculations were used to proclaim human influence on sea levels, without consideration of the errors involved. These organizations include the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is a political organization, not a scientific one, and its followers such as the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP).
Sadly, following these erroneous procedures, entities of once distinguished scientific organizations such as NASA and NOAA have promoted alarm, rather than focusing on the uncertainty of the measurements and recognizing the continued efforts to improve measurements. As Curry states:
“Significant work has been done to devise methods to accurately calibrate altimeter measurements against a global network of tide gauges. As a result, a number of drifts and bias changes have been discovered and corrected, including an early software error that caused the estimate to be nearly 7 mm yr-1 too high, drifts in the water vapor correction from the microwave radiometer, and changes in the sea state bias model. Calibration efforts are ongoing, which is essential for obtaining an accurate climate record from satellite altimetry.
“Summary. Satellite measurements of global sea level have been available since 1992, and the technology is under continuing development. Complex analysis methods are required to transform raw satellite measurements into sea level variations, including the correction and piecing together of records collected over many years by ageing and changing satellites. Estimates of sea level change made using satellite-collected data are associated with many uncertainties in the data processing; with time, the uncertainty in current analysis methods and datasets may be revised as addition [al sic] errors are uncovered. There is some inconsistency between the results derived by different research groups for the interannual variability, owing to differences in making the complex adjustments. These uncertainties underscore the need for continual scrutiny of the satellite and in situ tide gauge data, plus the need for independent observing systems such as multiple satellite altimeters with differing instrument designs, the tide gauge network, in situ ocean temperature observing system, and gravimetric satellites.”
As discussed in TWTW on January 21, 2017, IPCC and USGCRP, and NOAA reports needlessly speculate an unrealistic sea level rise (SLR), thereby harming any realistic planning by local, concerned authorities. The TWTW stated:
“For example, Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel (CSAP) reported that ‘Based upon a thorough assessment of scientific data and literature on SLR, the CSAP concludes that the Tampa Bay region may experience SLR somewhere between 6 inches to 2.5 feet in 2050 and between 1 to 7 feet in 2100.’ The 1-foot rise is from extrapolation of readings from local tidal gages. The 7-foot rise is from NOAA high estimates from IPCC and USGCRP reports.”
The government entities that wildly speculate on sea level rise do not benefit the public, but harm it. The leadership of these organizations should be so informed.
[Amusing side comment: the latest satellite data shows a modest, uneven rise since 2016. Could one argue that the nomination of Donald Trump frightened the sea gods from uprising? Maybe Donald Trump is more powerful than King Canute!] See links under Seeking a Common Ground, Changing Seas, Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up and https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/sod/lsa/SeaLevelRise/
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Quote of the Week. “We are in the uncomfortable position of extrapolating into the next century without understanding the last.” – Walter Heinrich Munk, American physical oceanographer. professor of geophysics emeritus [H/t Climate Etc.]
Number of the Week: 3400% growth in eight years.
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Trump Budget: The Trump administration announced its first new budget, not an extension of the mid-year budget announced in 2017. Analysts on all sides immediately followed with their comments. Of course, one can only guess at what may come out of Congress. Among issues of note for TWTW readers are the Global Climate Change Initiative (GCCI) and the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).
The Global Climate Change Initiative (GCCI) was a policy of the Obama Administration, which provided monies to the UN Green Climate Fund, without approval of Congress. The funding for these programs came largely through the State Department and USAID. According to reports the Trump budget reduces the funding to State and USAID by 30% to $39.3 billion. If the administration is pulling out of the Paris Accord, there is no reason to fund its programs. These programs were never established by Congress as a priority, they were only priorities in the past administration.
Also, the Trump administration proposes to make changes to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) to streamline the process for obtaining environmental approvals. Of course, the environmental groups object to any streamlining by claiming it will “weaken” environmental protections. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), called the Stimulus Bill, was passed with supporters in Congress and President Obama claiming it would provide “shovel-ready” jobs. Later, President Obama “joked?” that the jobs were not quite shovel-ready. Long, involved approvals were required. Of the estimate total cost of some $830 billion, less than 10% of the cost went to public works, the bulk went to various forms of income maintenance.
Although President Obama complained about the slow pace of stimulus bill, he expanded the scope of NEPA by issuing guidance through the Council of Environmental Quality that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be the proxy for climate change impacts of a proposed action reviewed under NEPA. As discussed in the August 6, 2016 TWTW, the Guidance stated:
“This approach, together with providing a qualitative summary discussion of the impacts of GHG emissions based on authoritative reports such as the USGCRP’s National Climate Assessments and the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States, a Scientific Assessment of the USGCRP, allows an agency to present the environmental and public health impacts of a proposed action in clear terms and with sufficient information to make a reasoned choice between no action and other alternatives and appropriate mitigation measures, and to ensure the professional and scientific integrity of the NEPA review.”
As it is implemented, NEPA creates lengthy delays in virtually all major construction projects that have an impact on the environment, regardless of how important. For example, since 1900, New Orleans has been flooded by major hurricanes six times: in 1915, 1940, 1947, 1965 (Betsy), 1969 (Camille) and 2005 (Katrina).
After hurricane Betsy caused a storm surge in Lake Pontchartrain that overcame the levees and flooded a part of New Orleans, the Corps of Engineers announced it would build a barrier system like the Dutch use to stop storm surges from the North Sea. Environmental groups successfully sued to stop the project claiming that the Final Environmental Impact Statement was not sufficient.
On December 30, 1977, in Save Our Wetlands, Inc. vs. Early J Rush III (Corps of Engineers), Federal Judge Charles Schwartz, Jr. ruled “it is the opinion of the Court that plaintiffs herein have demonstrated that they, and in fact all persons in this area, will be irreparably harmed if the barrier project . . . is allowed to continue.” (Boldface added). An appeal failed. The decision was proudly posted on the web site of “Save Our Wetlands, Inc.”. until hurricane Katrina flooded New Orleans in 2005, in the same manner as Betsy. Then it quietly disappeared.
Legal actions made in the name of environmental protection can destroy human lives and property. Ironically, after Katrina, President Bush received most of the blame, both nationally and locally, for the damage done by this natural event. Subsequently, Mayor Ray Nagin of New Orleans was convicted for diverting funds that were earmarked for improving the levees (that were claimed to be sufficient but were poorly built) to stop flooding of New Orleans via Lake Pontchartrain. He was the latest in a long list of local politicians who diverted such funding. See Article # 1, links under Change in US Administrations, Funding Issues, and http://library.water-resources.us/docs/hpdc/docs/19771230_SOWLvRush_injunction_order.pdf
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Arctic Disturbances: Once again, fears built on claims that the warming of the Arctic is a threat to humanity are appearing. As with past claims that warming will cause massive releases of methane, thus greatly compounding the initial warming, the current claims fall apart with analysis. The current fear is a release of mercury threatening the globe. Writing in The Reference Frame, physicist Luboš Motl demolishes the claim; see link under Challenging the Orthodoxy. **************
Lowering Standards: The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) announced the recipient of its 2018 award for Public Engagement – Michael, “Hockey-stick” Mann. On Climate Etc. Judith Curry cites the award and a few comments by Roger Pielke, Jr. including:
“My issue here is not with Mann. It is with the decision by AAAS to single out Mann as someone who embodies our highest values of the scientific community: a role model to emulate who engages in behaviors to celebrate.
“With this award, what message is AAAS sending to the scientific community and to the public?
“The AAAS is telling us that engaging in hyper-partisan, gutter politics, targeted against Republicans and colleagues you disagree with, using unethical tactics, will be rewarded by leaders in the scientific community.
“AAAS could work to help to defuse the pathological politicization of science. Instead, it has thrown some gasoline on the fire.”
Perhaps the purpose of AAAS is to intensify “pathological politicization of science” in hopes of gaining more financial support by promoting fear of humanity. In commenting on the speculative increase in sea level rise, discussed above, the staff writers of the AAAS publication EurekAlert stated: “Twenty-five years of satellite data prove climate models are correct in predicting that sea levels will rise at an increasing rate.” [Boldface added]
These data prove nothing, but the exaggerations by AAAS demonstrate disturbing trends. Note: Mr. Mann has claimed that Fred Singer and SEPP have received funding from Phillip Morris (tobacco), Texaco (oil) and Monsanto (chemical), without offering any evidence. Fred Singer and SEPP have received no such funding. See links under Lowering Standards and Seeking a Common Ground
100% Renewable: We have another study on how the nation can obtain 100% of its energy requirements from “renewables,” mainly solar and wind. As usual, the problems of storage and its costs are idealized and minimized – just ask South Australia.
Independently, Roger Andrews of Energy Matters may have hit on the solution for this problem – use the Great Lakes for pumped hydro storage. Surely the Canadians would not mind. Imagine the number of “green jobs” that will be created in just preparing, filing, and attacking & defending the required NEPA permits! See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind and Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Storage.
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Number of the Week: 3400% growth in eight years. According to data from the US EIA, prior to January 2010, monthly oil production from shale was miniscule, less than 300,000 barrels per day (b/d). It increased slowly then rapidly, with a downturn. By January 2018, it grew to 5.2 million b/d – over 34 times, or 3400% in eight years. This exceeds the 4.9 million b/d of US conventional oil production. Over 50% of total US oil production now comes from shale. Oil and gas production from shale is not a temporary “flash in the pan” as many “experts” claimed earlier. See article # 2 and last week’s TWTW.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Scientists warn of unusually cold Sun: Will we face another ice age?
A study by the University of California San Diego has said the Sun will experience a cold period where all solar activities will be reduced drastically.
By Bihu Ray, IBT, Feb 8, 2018
http://www.ibtimes.co.in/scientists-warn-unusually-cold-sun-will-we-face-another-ice-age-759865
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Diagnosing Climate Sensitivity Assuming Some Natural Warming
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Feb 16, 2018
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/02/diagnosing-climate-sensitivity-assuming-some-natural-warming/
Repealing the Climate Endangerment Finding Is Crucial to Restoring EPA’s Integrity
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Feb 16, 2018
http://www.carlineconomics.com/
“It is only by repealing the scientifically invalid EF that scientific objectivity can come to future EPA actions concerning climate change.”
Permafrost mercury hysteria is shameful corrupt pseudoscience
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Feb 10, 2018
https://motls.blogspot.com/2018/02/permafrost-mercury-alarm-is-shameful.html
Defending the Orthodoxy
Permaforst Stores a Globally Significant Amount of Mercury
By Paul Schuster, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, Feb 5, 2018
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL075571/epdf
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Twenty-five years of satellite data confirm rising sea levels
By Staff Writers, EurekAlert, (AAAS) Feb 12, 2018
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-02/uosf-2os020718.php
Leaked U.N. climate report sees ‘very high risk’ the planet will warm beyond key limit
By Chris Mooney, Washington Post, Feb 14, 2018 [H/t Jo Nova]
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/science/ct-un-climate-report-20180214-story.html
Surprise, IPCC draft report leaked, on cue, ready to be milked for another round of press
Six months to go and why waste a perfectly good press opportunity?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 16, 2018
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Donald Trump’s Extract-Everything Energy Policy Dooms Us All
The expansion of the fossil-fuel industry has been transformed into a major component of American foreign policy.
By Michael Klare, The Nation, Feb 12, 2018 [H/t Real Clear Energy]
https://www.thenation.com/article/donald-trumps-extract-everything-energy-policy-dooms-us-all/
More afraid of Climate Change Yeti than going to jail
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 14, 2018
http://joannenova.com.au/2018/02/more-afraid-of-climate-change-yeti-than-going-to-jail/
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Enstrom’s Expose of Air Pollution Epidemiology Problems
By John Dale Dunn, Dose Response, Letter, Feb 12, 2018
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1559325817749414
It’s weather, not climate change, Governor Brown
By Robert W. Endlich, Canada Free Press, Feb 14, 2018
http://canadafreepress.com/article/its-weather-not-climate-change-governor-brown
Man-Made Global Warming
Statements collected by John Shanahan, Environmentalists of Nuclear USA, Accessed Feb 13, 2018
Let the climate debate begin!
By Tom Harris Sentinel News, Utah, Feb 12, 2018
http://www.sentinelnews.net/article/12-2-2018/2122018-let-climate-debate-begin#.WoLIrKinE_X
After Paris!
EU Trade Threat: Paris Climate Ratification in All Future Trade Deals
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 12, 2018
Trump proposes sweeping changes to NEPA
By Nick Sobczyk, E&E News, Greenwire, Feb 12, 2018
https://www.eenews.net/greenwire/2018/02/12/stories/1060073597
Link to plan: Legislative Outline for Rebuilding Infrastructure in America
By Staff Writers, The White House, February 2018
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/INFRASTRUCTURE-211.pdf
White House plan erodes oversight in floodplains
By Daniel Cusick, E&E News, Feb 13, 2018
https://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2018/02/13/stories/1060073665
“The infrastructure plan stops short of scrapping NEPA, but it does call for sweeping changes to the nearly 50-year-old environmental law that serves as the foundation for much of the nation’s environmental regulations, including rules governing development in floodplains.”
[SEPP Comment: Congress, not the courts, should define floodplain or Waters of the United States!]
EPA chief’s questions about climate science draw new scrutiny
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Feb 10, 2018
Energy policy in Trump era bodes well for Americans and business
By Dan Byers, The Hill, Jan 26, 2018 [H/t Real Clear Energy]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Study: massive U.S. agriculture in the midwest has a climate cooling effect
From MIT: Intensive agriculture influences U.S. regional summer climate, study finds
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 13, 2018
“This is a really important, excellent study,” says Roger Pielke Sr., a senior research scientist at CIRES, at the University of Colorado at Boulder, who was not involved in this work. “The leadership of the climate science community has not yet accepted that human land management is at least as important on regional and local climate as the addition of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by human activities.”
Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part IV – Satellite era record
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Feb 17, 2018
https://judithcurry.com/2018/02/17/sea-level-rise-acceleration-or-not-part-iv-satellite-era-record/
Update: libel cases and the ‘climate wars’
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Feb 14, 2018
https://judithcurry.com/2018/02/14/update-libel-cases-and-the-climate-wars/#more-23823
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Temperature-Induced Morbidity in California
White, C. 2017. The dynamic relationship between temperature and morbidity. Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 4: 1155-1198. Feb 16, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/feb/a10.php
“Considering all of the author’s findings, it is clear that colder weather is a far greater risk to human health than are warm temperatures.”
A Coral’s Biological Control of its Calcifying Medium to Favor Skeletal Growth
Raybaud, V., Tambutté, S., Ferrier-Pagès, C., Reynaud, S., Venn, A.A., Tambutté, É., Nival, P. and Allemand, D. 2017. Computing the carbonate chemistry of the coral calcifying medium and its response to ocean acidification. Journal of Theoretical Biology 424: 26-36. Feb 15, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/feb/a9.php
35 Years of Hail Frequency and Intensity Records for China
Ni, X., Zhang, Q., Liu, C., Li, X., Zou, T., Lin, J., Kong, H. and Ren, Z. 2017. Decreased hail size in China since 1980. Scientific Reports 7: 10913, DOI:10.1038/s41598-017-11395-7. Feb 14, 2018
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V21/feb/a8.php
“In light of all the above, Ni et al. conclude that these observational changes ‘imply a weakened [frequency and] intensity of hailstorms in China in recent decades.’ And that finding does not bode well for climate models, which predict that just the opposite should be occurring.”
Model Issues
Beware EPA ‘Social Cost of Carbon’ Models
By Shawn Ritenour, Master Resource, Feb 14, 2018
https://www.masterresource.org/social-cost-of-co2/epa-scc-models/
Measurement Issues — Surface
US Big Freeze Is Adjusted Out Of Existence By Noaa
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 16, 2018
“Clearly NOAA’s highly homogenised and adjusted version of the Central Lakes temperature record bears no resemblance at all [to] the actual station data.
“And if this one division is so badly in error, what confidence can there be that the rest of the US is any better?”
Changing Weather
Arctic Weather Brrrrreaking Records
By Steve Selden, Churchill News, Feb 8, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
http://churchillpolarbears.org/2018/02/arctic-weather-brrrrreaking-records/
Land Of The Rising Cold …Japan Sees One Of Its Worst Winters In Decades …Heavy Snow And Bitter Cold
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 11, 2018
Changing Climate
Medieval Temperature Trends in Africa and Arabia
A synthesis of paleotemperature reconstructions from published case studies suggests warm onshore temperatures persisted across most of Afro-Arabia between 1000 and 1200 CE.
By Terri Cook, EOS, Feb 9, 2018 [H/t WUWT]
https://eos.org/research-spotlights/medieval-temperature-trends-in-africa-and-arabia
Link to main paper: Warming and Cooling: The Medieval Climate Anomaly in Africa and Arabia
By Sebastian Lüning,,Mariusz Gałka, Fritz Vahrenholt, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Nov 11, 2017
From the abstract: “The most likely key drivers of the observed medieval climate change are solar forcing and ocean cycles.”
New Study Maps Medieval Warm Period in Africa
By Staff Writers, GWPF, Feb 15, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/new-study-maps-medieval-warm-period-in-africa/
Link to paper: Warming and cooling: The Medieval Climate Anomaly in Africa and Arabia.
Lüning, S., M. Gałka, F. Vahrenholt (2017): Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 32 (11): 1219-1235, doi: 10.1002/2017PA003237, Nov 11, 2017
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017PA003237/abstract
Link to second paper: ): Hydroclimate in Africa during the Medieval Climate Anomaly.
By Lüning, S., M. Gałka, I. B. Danladi, T. A. Adagunodo, F. Vahrenholt, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Feb 12, 2018 (In Press)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018217310593
A never before western published paleoclimate study from China suggests warmer temperatures in the past
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 11, 2018
[SEPP Comment: TWTW and CO2 Science have linked to many such papers.]
Evidence for a massive biomass burning event at the Younger Dryas Boundary
By Staff Writers, SPX, Santa Barbara, CA, Feb 8, 2018 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Changing Climate – Cultures & Civilizations
Why did Greenland’s Vikings disappear?
By Eli Kintisch, Science, Nov 10, 2016 [H/t Climate Etc.]
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/11/why-did-greenland-s-vikings-disappear
[SEPP Comment: As winter temperatures fell 2°C (estimated)below the long-term below freezing, and storminess increased, marine food became more important in the diet as to Nordic agriculture. But what happened to access to the seas?
Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part III – 19th & 20th century observations
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Feb 10, 2018
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately below.]
NASA reports New Study shows Global Sea Level Rise has Accelerated over past 25 years
By Katie Weeman, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, and Patrick Lynch, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Feb 14, 2018 [H/t Bill Balgord]
SEA LEVEL: Rise and Fall – Part 4a – Getting Even More of a Rise Out of Nothing
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, Feb 14, 2018
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Climate change creates free real estate in Tuvalu: “climate refugees” can all go home
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 11, 2018
“The Green Blob is going to have to get rid of satellites. Real data is so inconvenient.”
Sea rise is outpacing Everglades restoration — but scientists say there’s a solution
By Jenny Staletovich, Miami Herald, Feb 12, 2018
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article199482759.html
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Why did gas hydrates melt at the end of the last ice age?
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 13, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/13/why-did-gas-hydrates-melt-at-the-end-of-the-last-ice-age/
Link to paper: Glacigenic sedimentation pulses triggered post-glacial gas hydrate dissociation
By Karstens, J., H. Haflidason, L. W. M. Becker, C. Berndt, L. Rüpke, S. Planke, V. Liebetrau, M. Schmidt, J. Mienert, Nature Communications, Feb 12, 2018
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03043-z
The Epic Failure Of Glacier-Melt, Sea Level Rise Alarmism Continues To Bespoil Climate Science
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Feb 12, 2018
Thick ice ‘catastrophic’ for Magdalen Islands grey seal hunters
Sealers come back empty-handed after ice blocks attempts to reach herds off Nova Scotia coast
By Julia Page, CBC News, Feb 8, 2018 [H/t Paul Homewood]
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/bad-season-seal-hunt-magdalen-islands-1.4526262
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Cancel the famine alarm! Temperature resilient crops now an ‘achievable dream’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 12, 2018
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Southern Hemisphere climate variability forced by Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet topography
By T.R. Jones, et al, Nature, Feb 5, 2018
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24669
Michael Mann gets award for climate activism
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 14, 2018
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/14/michael-mann-gets-award-for-climate-activism/
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Farm sunshine, not cancer: Replacing tobacco fields with solar arrays
Researchers contend that tobacco farmers could increase profits by converting their land to solar farms, which in turn provides renewable energy generation.
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Feb 5, 2018 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/02/180205151540.htm
Link to paper: Economic impact of substituting solar photovoltaic electric production for tobacco farming
By R. Krishnana, J.M. Pearce, Land Use Policy, Mar 2018
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837716306883
“In a case study of North Carolina, 30GW of PV power capacity was found to be economically viable on existing tobacco farms and if conversion took place over 2000 premature deaths could be prevented from pollution reduction alone.”
[SEPP Comment: EPA numbers on dangers of coal power plants in the US are highly questionable. Paper does not describe economic benefits to the farmer, only to government in the form of costs to public health of tobacco.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Oceans could be more than 2 feet higher by 2100 — study
By Cecelia Smith-Schoenwalder, E&E News, Feb 14, 2018
https://www.eenews.net/greenwire/2018/02/14/stories/1060073883
Link to paper: Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era
By Nerem, Beckley, Fasullo, Hamlington, Masters and Mitchum, PNAS, Feb 12, 2018
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/02/06/1717312115#abstract-2
Remember when ‘climate change’ was the reason for the Syrian war? Never mind…
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 13, 2018
Link to paper: Sampling bias in climate–conflict research
By Adams, Ide, Barnett & Detges, Nature Climate Change, Feb 12, 2018
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0068-2
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
The Fallacy of the Ninety-Seven Percent
By Ruth Weiner, ANS Nuclear Café, Feb 7, 2018
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Matt Damon’s ‘Downsizing’ Movie Is More Tired Overpopulation Nonsense From The Usual Suspects
By Steve Goreham, Daily Caller, Feb 15, 2018
Questioning European Green
Britain’s Energy Security Is At Risk–But It’s Not From Putin
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 13, 2018
“I don’t think Putin will have to worry about knocking out our energy infrastructure. We’re already doing a pretty good job ourselves!”
UK Wind Capacity Is Increasing–But At What Cost?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 15, 2018
Matt Ridley: Britain Needs to Embrace the Shale Revolution
By Matt Ridley, The Times, Via GWPF, Feb 13, 2018
https://www.thegwpf.com/matt-ridley-britain-needs-to-embrace-the-shale-revolution/
Trump’s Infrastructure Plan: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
By Marc Scribner, CEI, Feb 12, 2018
https://cei.org/blog/trumps-infrastructure-plan-good-bad-and-ugly
Climate loses in Trump’s plan. Here’s who wins
By Adam Aton, E&E News, Feb 13, 2018
https://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2018/02/13/stories/1060073713
[SEPP Comment: Flood mapping, mass DOE Weatherization, and Amtrak are cut as well as]
Trump seeks big cuts to science across agencies
By Scott Waldman, E&E News, Feb 13, 2018
https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060073703
Trump budget cuts renewable energy office, ups nuclear weapons spending
By Timothy Gardner, Reuters, Feb 12, 2018
International climate programs on chopping block — again
By Jean Chemnick, E&E News, Feb 13, 2018
https://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2018/02/13/stories/1060073705
First take: Trump’s 2019 budget not as disastrous for science as it first appears
By David Malakoff, Science, Feb 12, 2018
The zealous overselling of climate science has come home to roost…as budget cuts
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 12, 2018
Trump Budget Backs Nuclear, Coal; Cuts Funding for Renewables
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Feb 12, 2018 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://www.powermag.com/trump-budget-backs-nuclear-coal-cuts-funding-for-renewables/
The Political Games Continue
Senate bill would let EPA implement global greenhouse gas deal
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Feb 16, 2018
“The legislation would give the EPA authority to ban hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), potent greenhouse gases used in refrigeration and air conditioning.”
Litigation Issues
Tim Ball’s Victory in the First Climate Lawsuit Judgment – The Backstory
Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball, WUWT, Feb 14, 2018
Exxon Sues the Suers in Fierce Climate-Change Case
By Bob Van Voris, Bloomberg, Feb 13, 2018
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
China cuts subsidies for many electric cars, lifts standards
Automakers face higher range requirements as fraud prompts aid reduction
By Yu Nakamura, Nikkei, Feb 15, 2018
Texas’s CREZ Transmission Line: Wind Power’s $7 Billion Subsidy (ratebase socialism as ‘infrastructure improvement’)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Feb 16, 2018
https://www.masterresource.org/cre/texass-crez-transmission-line-wind-powers-7-billion-subsidy/
“Most every Texas ratepayer pays around $3–$5 per month (and will do so for a decade) for CREZ, a project that never would have been built if the wind developers themselves had to foot the bill.
“Concentrated benefits – diffused costs strikes again in the political world.”
Energy Issues – Non-US
Global Energy Forecast to 2100
By Euan Mearns, Energy Matters, Fe 15, 2018
http://euanmearns.com/global-energy-forecast-to-2100/#more-20978
A global energy demand forecast is presented to 2100 based on historic growth of per capita energy consumption, 1965-2015 and on UN low and medium population growth forecasts. The low forecast sees energy demand growing from 13.15 billion tonnes oil equivalent (toe) per annum in 2015 to 19.16 billion toe in 2100. The medium population forecast sees 29.5 billion toe in 2100, that is a rise of 124% over 2015. This is an interactive post where commenters are invited to suggest where all this additional energy may come from.
The Great Energy Transition Gathers Momentum–(Or Not!)
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 14, 2018
China Electricity Stats For 2017
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 16, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/02/16/china-electricity-stats-for-2017/
Link to data: China Energy Portal
Tracking China’s transition to sustainable energy | Powered by crowdsourced translation, Feb 6, 2018
https://chinaenergyportal.org/en/2017-electricity-energy-statistics/
[SEPP Comment: Over 50% of the non-nuclear 2016 to 2017 growth is thermal (coal and gas).]
Ignore the biased BBC – fracking is the future
By Harry Wilkinson, The Conservative Woman, Feb 15, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/ignore-biased-bbc-fracking-future/
Energy Issues — Australia
How much do we have to pay people to NOT use electricity – up to 30 times more?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 17, 2018
Third blackout in Victoria — blame the possums
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 14, 2018
http://joannenova.com.au/2018/02/third-blackout-in-victoria-blame-the-possums/#more-57460
“Australia has a gold-plated network, which is why our electricity is so expensive.”
Energy Issues — US
EIA estimates for USA in 2050: The Future is Fossil Fuels and Cheap Electricity
What energy transformation?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 12, 2018
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Oil Saves New England
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Feb 13, 2018
http://www.powerforusa.com/2018/02/13/oil-saves-new-england/
[SEPP Comment: Now that New Hampshire has the NIMBY (Not In My Back-Yard) fever and decided not to allow additional high intensity power lines through New Hampshire from Canada to Massachusetts, the plans for Massachusetts to import more electricity from Hydro-Québec through New Hampshire are in trouble. This denial brings into question the renewable energy plan of Massachusetts.]
OPEC’s Oil Price Nightmare Is Coming True
U.S. shale production is surging on higher crude, now the fear is waning demand growth.
By Julian Lee, Bloomberg, Feb 11, 2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-02-11/opec-s-oil-price-nightmare-is-coming-true
Scramble for gas in eastern Med begins to overheat
By Richard Wachman, Arab News, Feb 9, 2018 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.arabnews.com/node/1243751/business-economy
Two OPEC Nations Set to Open Giant Fields. At What Cost to Deal?
By Angelina Rascouet, Bloomberg, Feb 8, 2018
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Feds order partial shutdown at Cheniere LNG export site
Jenny Mandel and Mike Soraghan, E&E News, Feb 12, 2018
https://www.eenews.net/energywire/2018/02/12/stories/1060073537
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
New England Solar Madness
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Feb 16, 2018
http://www.powerforusa.com/2018/02/16/new-england-solar-madness/
New Mark Z. Jacobson Study Draws A Roadmap To 100% Renewable Energy
By Steve Hanley, Clean Technica, Feb 8, 2018 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/08/new-jacobson-study-draws-road-map-100-renewable-energy/
Wind industry to blow past other renewable energy sources after solar panel tariffs
By Ben Wolfgang, The Washington Times, Feb 8, 2018 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/feb/8/donald-trumps-solar-panel-tariffs-aid-wind-power-i/
Europe installs 3 GW offshore as turbine sizes soar; AT&T signs giant wind contract
By Staff Writers, New Energy Update, Feb 14, 2018
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Storage
The pumped hydro storage potential of the Great Lakes
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Feb 12, 2018
http://euanmearns.com/the-pumped-hydro-storage-potential-of-the-great-lakes/#more-20973
Dropping A Weight Down A Disused Coal Mine Is The New Way To Store Energy – And It Might Just Work
By Mike Scott, Forbes, Feb 9, 2018 [H/t Energy Matters]
Carbon Schemes
Energy Department to invest $44M in carbon capture technologies
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Feb 16, 2018
Environmental Industry
Utilities, NRDC to regulators: Clean energy is inevitable
By Rod Kuckro, E&E News, Feb 14, 2018
https://www.eenews.net/greenwire/2018/02/14/stories/1060073897
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Shock News – Icebreaker Sails Through Ice!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Feb 15, 2018
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/02/15/shock-news-icebreaker-sails-through-ice/
[SEPP Comment: A ship-design feature that escaped some newspapers.]
All bases covered!
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Feb 16, 2018
“The UK’s weather will become both too wet and too dry – and also too cold and too hot – as climate change increases the frequency of extreme events, the Met Office has warned in a new report.
“Its scientists concluded that on average the UK will see wetter, milder winters and hotter, drier summers in the long term due to global warming.
“But the natural year-to-year variability of weather will also mean occasional very cold winters, like that of 2010-11, and very wet summers, like that of 2012.”
The Guardian, 26 Mar 2014
Spoken like a true climate change believer!
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Feb 15, 2018
“Paris climate talks: Tuvalu PM Enele Sosene Sopoaga criticises demand for evidence of claims. Tuvalu’s prime minister says his country is being expected to provide unreasonably robust scientific evidence to prove it is a victim of climate change to qualify for international support. He said the required evidence was hard to come by in a nation of only 12,000.
ABC News (Australia), 8 Dec 2015” [Boldface added.]
ARTICLES:
1. Trump’s Big Public Works Dig
Permitting and other reforms are a major policy breakthrough.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Feb 12, 2018
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-big-public-works-dig-1518481073
SUMMARY: The editorial states:
“The White House on Monday unveiled its plan to raise $1.5 trillion in capital for public works. This will cause sticker shock among Republicans, but the President’s innovative regulatory reforms deserve debate and may even garner some Democratic support.
“President Trump is proposing to spend $200 billion in federal funds to leverage $1.3 trillion in state, local and private investment in public works. This bid is probably dead on arrival since Republicans have little appetite for more spending after blowing the budget sequestration caps last week.
“Many bridges and airports need a face-lift, though claims of crumbling roads are overwrought and often politically motivated. One problem is that public works like other discretionary programs are being squeezed by entitlements, which constitute nearly two-thirds of federal spending. But even while politicians in Washington gripe that we—always the royal “we”—don’t spend enough on public works, they consistently prioritize other discretionary programs.
“Consider: Of the $787 billion stimulus in 2009, only about $60 billion financed public works. Most was spent on safety-net programs and other progressive causes. More Hurricane Sandy recovery money went to “community development” than repairing train tunnels.
“Many projects that do receive federal funding aren’t national priorities, such as California’s bullet train. That’s because the government typically awards “competitive” grants to politically favored projects rather than those that would produce the biggest economic benefits. The Obama Administration rigged cost-benefit analysis to reward projects that would promote public housing and reduce carbon emissions.”
The EDITORIAL continues with expected political opposition to the plan.
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2. Shale Output Hasn’t Grown This Fast Since Oil Was at $100
In closely watched report, IEA warns U.S. crude output is set to outpace demand in 2018
By Christopher Alessi, WSJ, Feb 13, 2018
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-crude-output-expected-to-outpace-demand-iea-says-1518512404
SUMMARY: The journalist reports:
“U.S. shale companies are churning out crude oil at a record pace that could overwhelm global demand and reverse the oil market’s fragile recovery, a top energy-market observer said Tuesday.
“U.S. shale production is growing faster in 2018 than it did even during the boom years of $100 a barrel oil prices from 2011 to 2014, said the International Energy Agency in its closely watched monthly report. The difference this time: Oil prices are about 40% lower.
“The situation is ‘reminiscent of the first wave of U.S. shale growth, ‘ when a flood of American oil built up a global glut and sent prices crashing over four years ago, said the Paris-based IEA, which advises governments and corporations on energy trends.
“Shale producers ‘cut costs dramatically ‘ during the oil-industry downturn, the IEA said. They then took advantage of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel’s decision last year to cut its own output, which helped prices rise from the low $40s to over $70 a barrel in January.
“Unlike countries like Russia, shale-oil companies—using techniques like hydraulic fracturing, or fracking—are able to pounce when prices rise and pull back when the market falls. They can drill wells, and then wait to complete the process until it is profitable.
“Shale-oil producers had promised investors that they would focus on profits this year as prices rose and abandon the pump-at-any-cost mentality that crashed the market. But shale companies have a backlog of nearly 7,000 wells that have been drilled but not completed. That allows operators to increase production by extracting oil from the backlog rather than spending significant amounts on drilling, meaning U.S. output could rise even higher than expected.
“U.S. oil output could rise as high as 11 million barrels a day by 2019, some oil-industry analysts say, rivaling that of Russia, the world’s biggest crude producer. The U.S. currently pumps over 10 million barrels a day, the most since 1970.
“ ‘All the indicators that suggest continued fast growth in the U.S. are in perfect alignment, ‘ the IEA said.
“Led by U.S. shale companies, crude output from non-OPEC nations is expected to outpace the growth in oil demand in 2018, the IEA said. That is an important data point for oil traders who have been watching to see if shale production could catch up to robust demand that has been fueled by a strong global economy.”
Is Donald Trump more powerful than King Canute?
You bet! He is causing his political opponents to go insane and bash themselves on the rocks of Progressive Dishonesty… every damn day now. Even Canute would be green with envy at that.
“On December 30, 1977, in Save Our Wetlands, Inc. vs. Early J Rush III (Corps of Engineers), Federal Judge Charles Schwartz, Jr. ruled “it is the opinion of the Court that plaintiffs herein have demonstrated that they, and in fact all persons in this area, will be irreparably harmed if the barrier project . . . is allowed to continue.” (Boldface added). An appeal failed. The decision was proudly posted on the web site of “Save Our Wetlands, Inc.”. until hurricane Katrina flooded New Orleans in 2005, in the same manner as Betsy. Then it quietly disappeared.”
More than a 1000 people died because of the flooding. The greenies have the blood of a 1000 people on their hands.
Re Mann. American Association for the Abasement of Science ?
Re: sea level rise. All this search for various errors in satellite sea level data leaves me cold. I suggest using rhe results obtain ed by Chao, Yu amd Li in 2008 (Science, April 11th, 2009). What they did was to make corrections for all known reservoirs that can influence sea level rise. When these corrections were applied to reprted sea level data the sea level graph becamRe: se: level rise. All this search for various errors in satellite sea level data leaves me cold. I suggest using rhe results obtain ed by Chao, Yu and Li in 2008 (Science, April 11th, 2008). What they did was to make corrections for all known reservoirs that can influence sea level. When these corrections were applied to reported sea level data the sea level graph became linear for the previous eighty years, with a slope of 2.46 mm per year. For lineatity to persist this long tells us that it is not about to change anytime soon. For a cententury thus worls out just under ten inces, not twenty feet as Al Gore phantasizes. I wrote to both Nature and Science about this but was turned dowm, unread. Al got a Nobel Prize out of his phantasy. The fix was in, and I was just kicked aside.e linear for the previoud eihjty years, wikrh a slope of 2.46 mm per year.For lineatity to persist gor eighty yeats tells us thatit is not likely to change anytime soom. For a centyiry thus worls out just under tem inces, not twenty feet as Al Gore phantasozes. I wrote to both Nature and Science about this but was turned dowm, untead. Al hot a Nobel Prize for his phantasy. The fix was in, and I was just brushedaside.
Pleae usae this version below and ignore the previous one above. Data transfer went erring and created bogus nonsensucal sectioms.Tgank you. Arno
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Re: sea level rise. All this search for various errors in satellite sea level data leaves me cold. I suggest using rhe results obtained by Chao, Yu amd Li in 2008 (Science, April 11th, 2008). What they did was to make corrections for all known reservoirs that can influence sea level rise. When these corrections were applied to reported sea level data the sea level graph became linear. When these corrections were sed sea level graph became linear for the previous eighty years, with a slope of 2.46 mm per year. For linearity to persist this long tells us that it is not about to change anytime soon. For a century this works out just under ten inches, not twenty feet as Al Gore phantasizes. I wrote to both Nature and Science about this but was turned down, unread. This emabled Al to get a Nobel Prize out of his phantasy. It was so obvious that the fix was in, and I was just kicked aside.