Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President
UN – Protection of Four Freedoms: On December 10, 1948, the three-year old-UN adopted its Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Among others, Eleanor Roosevelt lobbied heavily for this declaration, invoking what was called the Four Freedoms. On January 6, 1941, President Roosevelt articulated these concepts in his State of the Union address. At the time, the US was formally neutral about the war occurring in Europe and in Asia, though Roosevelt was trying to convince the reluctant Congress and public to join the side of Great Britain. When the US entered the war after the bombing of Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, the four freedoms became generally accepted by the western allies. They are:
· Freedom of speech
· Freedom of worship
· Freedom from want
· Freedom from fear
Freedom from want is usually associated with adequate food for the public. These concepts are articulated in the second paragraph of the preamble of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights:
“Whereas disregard and contempt for human rights have resulted in barbarous acts which have outraged the conscience of mankind, and the advent of a world in which human beings shall enjoy freedom of speech and belief and freedom from fear and want has been proclaimed as the highest aspiration of the common people.” [Boldface added].
Sometimes, it appears that over the past 69 years the UN has lost its way and now is more concerned with promoting phantom fears of carbon dioxide, a gas essential for life as we generally recognize it, rather than protecting the freedoms embodied in its creation. See http://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/
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Quote of the Week. “The true standard of impartiality is that he should conceal no fact which, in his own mind, tells against his views.” – Lord Charnwood, biography of President Lincoln [H/t Rupert Darwall]
Number of the Week: 108th out of 140
UN – Promotion of Four Fears: The Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report, of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5, 2013 & 2014) for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes contains many assertions regarding the climate system that may develop in the future from the continued used of fossil fuels. The major assertions are based on numerical models that have not been rigorously tested. These assertions were amplified by the Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I, (CSSR) released by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) in November. The CSSR was discussed in the November 11 TWTW.
The UN IPCC report and the USGCRP report make similar claims (predictions?) of a dire future from continued use of carbon-based fuels, include increases in heat related mortality, extreme events, heat, precipitation, declining food availability (security), as found on page 13 of the UN report. However, there is little solid evidence supporting these claims, and they are largely based on numerical models that have never been verified and validated, thus are speculation. In general, the claims can be grouped into four phantom fears:
· Fear of Dire Temperature Increase
· Fear of Sudden Sea Level Rise
· Fear of Ocean Acidification (change in chemistry)
· Fear of Famine
Now, it appears that a principal purpose of the UN is not to protect freedoms, including the freedom from fear, but to promote fears. In promotion of fear, the UN is ably assisted by many US government agencies, including the 13 which make up the USGCRP and comprise part of the climate establishment. These government agencies are: The Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Energy, Health & Human Services, Interior, State and Transportation, plus EPA, NSA, NSF, the Smithsonian Institution and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Fear of Dire Temperature Increase: There is no question that carbon dioxide (CO2) is a greenhouse gas, the atmospheric concentration of which is increasing with the burning of fossil fuels. Without greenhouse gases, the primary one being water vapor, the earth would be uninhabitable. Further, humanity evolved in the tropics of Africa during a period of climate change. The major issues are how sensitive are earth’s temperatures to CO2 and at what point does warming become harmful to humanity, in general.
The June 17 TWTW discussed detailed analysis by Geologist Euan Mearns who examined the temperatures, carbon dioxide, and methane (CH4, another greenhouse gas) found in the Vostok Ice Core from Antarctica. Mears focused on the Post-Eemian period after the last warm interglacial period and found that for over 14,000 years as temperatures fell and the earth entered a major ice age, CH4 concentrations fell, but CO2 concentrations remained high. It is important not to over-generalize from such a finding, but it is one indicator that the earth’s temperatures are not as sensitive to CO2 as the IPCC and the USGCRP have assumed.
As discussed in last week’s TWTW, John Christy and Richard McNider of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) estimated the maximum effect increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) may have on atmospheric temperatures – an upper bound of climate sensitivity to increasing CO2 – by using established statistical techniques to eliminate two natural influences on atmospheric temperatures – volcanoes and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). They did not eliminate other natural influences such as changing solar energy hitting the globe. Based on the entire atmospheric temperature record to June 2017, they found that the earth’s atmospheric temperatures are far less sensitive to greenhouse gases than assumed by the IPCC and the USGCRP. The Greenhouse Gas effect occurs in the atmosphere.
It appears that the fear of dire temperature increase from increasing CO2 is not substantiated. See links in the cited TWTW’s
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Fear of Sudden Sea Level Rise: Featured in the Third Assessment Report (AR-3, 2001) of the IPCC, Mr. Michael Mann introduced the world to the climate hockey stick: He placed temperature data gathered by instruments at the end of the time line for temperature data derived from proxy data. Along with other issues, Mr. Mann did not properly calibrate data sets derived from two different means. It appears that failure to properly calibrate different datasets occurs with sea level data as well.
Both the IPCC and the USGCRP reports show a sharp increase in the rate of sea level rise. The USGCRP has a major problem of a sharp increase in sea level rise starting in 1993, the date of the first sea level estimates from satellites. It failed to properly calibrate that data with long-term data from coastal tidal gages.
Earlier tidal gage data, from 1870 to 2000, shows a calculated mean sea level rise of 1.54 mm per year or 6 inches per century. The later satellite data, from 1993 to 2016, shows a calculated mean sea level rise of 3 mm per year, or 11.8 inches per century. There is no logical reason to assume the rate of increase should suddenly double. Claims that there has been significant ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica from carbon dioxide-caused warming are highly suspect. That warming is not being observed in the atmosphere, particularly over Antarctica.
The satellite data may be more sensitive than tidal gage data to changing wind patterns or absorption of total solar energy. The latter will be discussed in a future TWTW. Since two of the three coordinating lead authors of the USGCRP report are from NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory and NASA Headquarters, perhaps a plotting together of these two remarkably different rates of sea level rise can be called the NOAA-NASA Hockey Stick. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy, https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/, and https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/sod/lsa/SeaLevelRise/
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Fear of Ocean Acidification (Change in Chemistry): Increasing atmospheric CO2 may cause small changes in the chemistry of the oceans, by lowering the alkalinity of the oceans, making them closer to neutral (neutral is a pH of 7, alkaline above 7). The most abundant dissolved ions in sea water are, in descending order, sodium, chloride, magnesium, sulfate, and calcium. Sodium, magnesium and calcium are alkali metals or alkaline earth metals. They raise the pH.
Supposedly, an increase in CO2 will prevent certain animals and algae from forming protective shells. Yet, the history of the earth provides ample evidence that this assertion is false. US geologists divide the Carboniferous Period, during which extensive coal beds were formed world-wide, into an early part called the Mississippian Period (360 to 320 million years ago) and the later part called the Pennsylvanian (roughly 320 to 286 million years ago). The Mississippian Period is characterized by thick marine limestones deposited by plants and shell forming animal life. Yet, during this period, carbon dioxide concentrations were 4 or more times greater than today.
Further, the reports of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) and CO2 science show that the fear of ocean acidification is based on speculation and shoddy laboratory experiments that do not allow life to adjust to changes as it would in nature. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC, Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science, and http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html
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Fear of Famine: Possibly the worst fear being generated by the UN and the USGCRP is fear of famine. The IPCC states: “For wheat, rice and maize in tropical and temperate regions, climate change without adaptation is projected to negatively impact production for local temperature increases of 2°C or more above late 20th century levels,” Yields are speculated to decline. (p. 15). These fears are repeated by the USGCRP, which includes the Defense Department and the Department of Agriculture.
Perhaps the leaders of these entities are unaware the plants require CO2 for photosynthesis, that satellite photographs show a greening earth, that NIPCC and CO2 Science have documented thousands of studies showing plant life does better in an environment richer in CO2, and that plant nurseries add CO2 to the atmosphere of their greenhouses. There is little justification for this fear.
Recent headlines show farming communities world-wide are experiencing difficulties from too much crop production:
· “Low Food Prices Are Hurting Farm-State Economies”
“Iowa and South Dakota’s economies shrink as farmers add to a global food glut” (WSJ, Dec 6, 2017)
· “Global Oversupply of Grains Puts a Squeeze on Giant Processors” (WSJ, Nov 2, 2017)
The second article discusses five years of bumper crops in North America, Eurasia, and Brazil. This includes the period when alarmists were proclaiming the hottest year ever. Further, Brazil is a tropical country, far hotter than temperate regions where the IPCC claims temperature increase will adversely affect food production. It is sad that the UN, the IPCC and some US government agencies have shifted from protecting freedoms to promoting phantom fears. See Article # 1, links under Challenging the Orthodoxy– NIPCC, and Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
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Beginning of the Scare: On his web site, Bernie Lewin is tracing the beginning of the UN involvement in promoting fear of climate change. As he reports, it began in the 1970s, when a few geologists began promoting a major cooling. Not many were involved, and they were right that the dominate climate for over 2.5 million years has been long cold periods.
At the time there were fears of population explosion, bad weather, droughts, floods, food security, and resource depletion. Some of the promoters of these used state-of-the-art numerical models to give a scientific image to their findings. Often, the assumptions in the models were poorly tested, or pure speculation.
Interestingly, Lewin finds that the State Department under the Nixon administration was involved in encouraging the UN to participate. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy
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APS Workshop in 2014: Rupert Darwall’s essay on the 2014 workshop by the American Physical Society is receiving increased attention. To simplify matters for TWTW readers who may wish to read the essay, the participants for the side promoting IPCC’s CO-2 caused global warming were: William Collins, an IPCC Lead Author and climate modeler, Benjamin Santer of “distinct human fingerprint” fame, and Isaac Hal of NOAA. The participants for the opposing side were Richard Lindzen, John Christy, and Judith Curry (all frequently cited in TWTW). Steven Koonin was the moderator.
The main issues were: West Antarctic Meltdown (the underlying geothermal warming was not well understood at the time; Enhanced greenhouse effect; IPCC use of climate models; Is the consensus wrong?; Climate science – can it be falsified; John Christy’s congressional testimony (greatly expanded since); Politicized science v. red/blue team appraisals; and Need for informed consent by the public. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Number of the Week: 108th out of 140. The International Atomic Energy Agency had an article on Costa Rica and “Climate-Smart Agriculture.” The article brought up the “Happy Planet Index”, a composite index designed by the New Economics Foundation of: a) wellbeing “How satisfied the residents of each country feel with life overall” (based on a Gallup poll) multiplied by b) Life expectancy multiplied by c) inequalities of outcomes. (“the inequalities between people within a country in terms of how long they live, and how happy they feel, based on the distribution in each country’s life expectancy and wellbeing data”) and then divided by d) Ecological Footprint (“the average impact that each resident of a country places on the environment, based on data prepared by the Global Footprint Network.”)
According to the article and the index, Costa Rica with a score of 44.7 is number 1; Mexico with a score of 40.7 is number 2; Bangladesh with a score of 38.4 is number 8; Venezuela with a score of 33.6 is 29; and the US with a score of 20.7 is number 108. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Arizona Supreme Court Orders Release of Climategate-Related Emails
Press Release: E&E Legal, Via GWPF, Dec 7, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/arizona-supreme-court-orders-release-of-climategate-related-emails/
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Argentinian geoscientist faces criminal charges over glacier survey
Government researcher Ricardo Villalba stands accused of shaping a study to benefit mining interests.
By Jeff Tollefson and Emiliano Rodríguez Mega, Nature, Dec 6, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08236-y
Climate Scientists Are Now Suing Critics Who Challenge ‘Settled Science’
Editorial, IBD, Dec 8, 2017
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/global-warming-science-lawsuits/
Stanford professor’s defamation lawsuit puts chill in atmosphere of climate scientists
By Valerie Richardson, The Washington Times, Dec 6, 2017
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/dec/6/mark-jacobson-stanford-professor-heats-climate-deb/
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
The Science of William M. Gray
His Contributions to the Knowledge of Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones
By Philip J. Klotzbach, et al, AMS, Nov 2017
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0116.1
“In a career spanning more than 50 years, Professor Gray made extensive contributions to the study of tropical meteorology and tropical cyclones and ushered in a generation of young scientists.”
A Veneer of Certainty Stoking Climate Alarm
In Private, Climate Scientists Are Much less Certain than They Tell the Public
By Rupert Darwall, CEI, Nov 27, 2017
https://cei.org/content/stoking-climate-action
Where the Global Warming Debate Stands
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, Dec 3, 2017
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2017/12/where-the-global-warming-debate-stands.php
[SEPP Comment: Outlining Darwall’s essay from the standpoint of the West Antarctic ice sheet.]
Retraction request to Bioscience: FOIA emails document another harsh criticism of Amstrup’s 2007 polar bear model
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Dec 5, 2017
The 1970s Global Cooling Scare (and how the warming scare could not have happened without it)
By Bernie Lewin, Enthusiasm, Scepticism and Science, Dec 3, 2017
Do 40,000 volcanoes matter?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 5, 2017
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/12/do-40000-volcanoes-matter/
None of the Climate Alarmist Apocalypses Have Occurred or Are Even Possible
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Dec 6, 2017
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/4068
Medical Journal Perpetrates the Noble Lie that American Air Quality Kills
By John Dunn and Steve Milloy, American Thinker, Dec 9, 2017
Wildfires: Separating Demagoguery from the Science
Guest essay by Jim Steele, WUWT, Dec 3, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/03/wildfires-separating-demagoguery-from-the-science/
Defending the Orthodoxy
Climate Change 2014, Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers
UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I, (CSSR)
By Wuebbles, Fahey, & Hibbard, et al, USGCRP, November 2017
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/
The Climate-Change Fight Returns to Paris
By Laurence Tubiana, Project Syndicate, Dec 8, 2017
“The Paris climate agreement, a historic feat of diplomacy that ushered in a new era of international climate collaboration, was facilitated by a number of political and social forces.”
[SEPP Comment: From the standpoint of the US Constitution, the Paris agreement may be considered a historic feat of US government deception.]
The European Union sets ambitious renewable energy and efficiency targets
By Staff Writers, Climate Action, in partnership with UN Environment, Nov 30, 2017
“The Industry and Energy Committee Members of the European Parliament (MEP) voted on Tuesday to reduce the Union’s energy consumption by 40 percent and to increase the share of renewable energy sources by 35 percent by 2030.
“In addition, at least 12 percent of the energy consumed from the transport sector from each member state will have to come from renewables.”
Climate change is the story you missed in 2017. And the media is to blame
By Lisa Hymas, The Guardian, Dec 7, 2017 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/07/climate-change-media-coverage-media-matters
Costa Rica Paves the Way for Climate-Smart Agriculture
By Laura Gil, IAEA, Dec 7, 2017
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/costa-rica-paves-the-way-for-climate-smart-agriculture
Link to Happy Planet Index
Questioning the Orthodoxy
2 New Papers: 92% Of Polar Bear Subpopulations Stable, Increasing…Inuit Observe ‘Too Many Polar Bears Now’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 7, 2017
Global Temperature Increases Are Lower and Slower, Says New Study
“We calculated that value as 1.1 C (almost 2° Fahrenheit), while climate models estimate that value as 2.3 C (about 4.1° F)”
By Ronald Bailey, Reason, Dec 4, 2017
http://reason.com/blog/2017/12/04/global-temperature-increases-are-lower-a
[SEPP Comment: Misses the main points: 1) the climate is not as sensitive to CO2 as claimed in “the theory” and 2) the global climate models cannot predict!]
Progress and Pollution
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Dec 8, 2017
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/progress-and-pollution
“The fact that pollution is largely a problem of emerging economies and the developing world tells us that it is prosperous and highly developed societies that manage issues of pollution most effectively. Economic development is the solution, not the problem.”
Media Climate Alarmism Has Become “Primitive”… “Intellectually Subterranean”, German Scientists Say
Recent SRF German public broadcasting commentary on climate change has reached a new low in quality and new high in activism, two respected German scientists say.
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, (Text translated/edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Dec 5, 2017
After Paris!
China U-turns on coal ban amid growing outcry over numbers left freezing in winter cold
Northern officials told that keeping people warm is ‘number one’ priority as dash for gas fails to ensure adequate power supplies
By Viola Zhou, South China Morning Post, Dec 7, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
Poor bear brunt of Beijing coal cleanup with no heating at -6C
Switch from coal to gas has left residents of towns around Beijing without heating after gas supply falters, reports Climate Home News
By Staff Writers, Guardian, Dec 4, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
Change in US Administrations
Overnight Energy: Trump shrinks two Utah national monuments
Trump Slashes Bears Ears, Grand Staircase-Escalante Monuments
By Timothy Cama and Devin Henry, The Hill, Dec 4, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Much of the 1.9 million-acre Grand Staircase-Escalante monument is wasteland. When President Clinton announced it, he didn’t bother to have his press conference there. He held it at the Grand Canyon instead.]
Social Benefits of Carbon
What Cannabis Growers Know That Climate Scientists Don’t Know
By Steve Goreham, Daily Caller, Dec 2, 2017
http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/02/what-cannabis-growers-know-that-climate-scientists-dont-know/
Jeff Jacoby: There are benefits from climate change
By Jeff Jacoby, Boston Globe, Dec 6, 2017
Seeking a Common Ground
Researchers nail down the long-sought source of ocean methane
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 7, 2017
Link to paper: Synthesis of methylphosphonic acid by marine microbes: a source for methane in the aerobic ocean.
By Metcalf, WW, et al, 2012
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22936780
“An abundant enzyme in marine microbes may be responsible for production of the greenhouse gas.”
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Growth and Water Use Benefits for Rice Under Enhanced CO2 Conditions
Kumar, U., Quick, W.P., Barrios, M., Sta Cruz, P.C. and Dingkuhn, M. 2017. Atmospheric CO2 concentration effects on rice water use and biomass production. PLoS ONE 12: e0169706. Dec 8, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/dec/a5.php
Recent Trends in Regional Sea Level Rise Near Taiwan
Lan, W.H., Kuo, C.Y., Kao, H.C., Lin, L.C., Shum, C.K., Tseng, K.H. and Chang, J.C. 2017. Impact of geophysical and datum corrections on absolute sea-level trends from tide gauges around Taiwan, 1993-2015. Water 9: 480, doi:10.3390/w9070480. Dec 7, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/dec/a4.php
“Looking to the future, Lan et al. depart from climate alarmist projections of alarming sea level rise, writing instead that the data ‘suggest that the regional sea-level trends around Taiwan in the next 10-30 years may be lower than the trends observed in the past 20 years’ (emphasis added). Such reasoning is based on the relationship they uncovered between sea level and changes in ENSO and the PDO shown in Figure 1 below.”
[SEPP Comment: 20-year trend of 2.2mm/yr or 8-9 inches per century.]
The Relationship Between CO2-induced Plant Growth Stimulation and Nitrogen Acquisition
Feng, Z., Rütting, T., Pleijel, H., Wallin, G., Reich, P.B., Kammann, C.I., Newton, P.C.D., Kobayashi, K., Luo, Y. and Uddling, J. 2015. Constraints to nitrogen acquisition of terrestrial plants under elevated CO2. Global Change Biology 21: 3152-3168. Dec 6, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/dec/a3.php
“The PNL [progressive nitrogen limitation] hypothesis has long been championed by climate alarmists, who claim that low concentrations of soil nitrogen will curtail the ability of the productivity-enhancing effect of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations to maintain increased plant growth and ecosystem carbon sequestration rates over the long term. Clearly, however, as illustrated by the data in this study, such limitation is not taking place.”
Ocean Acidification is Not Detrimental to Two Macroalgae Species
Leal, P.P., Hurd, C.L., Fernández, P.A. and Roleda, M.Y. 2017. Ocean acidification and kelp development: Reduced pH has no negative effects on meiospore germination and gametophyte development of Macrosystis pyrifera and Undaria pinnatifida. Journal of Phycology 53: 557-566. Dec 4, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/dec/a2.php
“Consequently, in light of all of these findings, the scientists conclude that future ocean acidification — if it occurs – ‘will not be detrimental for the development of early life history stages of Macrosystis pyrifera and Undaria pinnatifida.’ In contrast, a return to preindustrial seawater pH values would have a “negative effect” on the growth and development of these two kelp species. Dec 4, 2017
The Attenuation of Corn Yield Sensitivity to Rising Temperatures
Leng, G. 2017. Evidence for a weakening strength of temperature-corn yield relation in the United States during 1980-2010. Science of the Total Environment 605-606: 551-558.. Dec 1, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/dec/a1.php
Model Issues
Another climate feedback found: ‘cooling effect of natural atmospheric particles is greater during warmer years’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 4, 2017
Link to paper: “Substantial large-scale feedbacks between natural aerosols and climate“, is published in Nature Geoscience 4th December 2017. (DOI: 10.1038/s41561-017-0020-5). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-017-0020-5
[SEPP Comment: Uses a global aerosol model to assess terrestrial natural aerosol—climate feedbacks.]
Changing Weather
Another Highly Predictable Windstorm/Wildfire Event: Ventura and Los Angeles Counties
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Dec 5, 2017
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/12/another-highly-predictable.html
“Interestingly, temperature COOLED as the winds increased [in Chilao, CA] from around 50F to the lower 30sF as the winds increased. This event is not about heat, it is about dry air and wind.”
Time Running Out For Global Warming Hoaxsters… 7 New Studies Show Large Parts Of Globe Cooling!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 8, 2017
Changing Seas
Rising sea-levels in the Indian Ocean due to man-made “adjustments” not CO2
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 9, 2017
Link to paper: Is the Sea Level Stable at Aden, Yemen?
By Albert Parker, Clifford Ollier, Earth Systems and Environment, Dec 2017
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41748-017-0020-z
Tidalgate: Climate Alarmist Caught Faking Sea Level Rise
Alarmist scientists have been caught red-handed tampering with raw data in order to exaggerate sea level rise.
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Dec 6, 2017 [H/t Bill Balgord]
Study: Rising seas may put US historical landmarks under water this century
By Avery Anapol, The Hill, Dec 4, 2017
No link to a formal IPCC report: Link to: New Sea-Level Rise Projection Raises Threat to World’s Coasts
By Kacey Deamer, Live Science, Dec 15, 2016
https://www.livescience.com/57216-sea-level-rise-projections-threaten-coasts.html
“For instance, models show that if sea levels rose 6.6 feet (2 meters) — the general estimation by scientists for sea-level rise if carbon dioxide emissions continue — for a salt marsh along the coast of Louisiana, much of the marsh area would become open water by 2100.”
Link to study: An Earth’s Future Special Collection: Impacts of the coastal dynamics of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes
By Kidwell, Dietrich, Hagen, and Medeiros, Earth’s Future, AGU, Jan 20, 2017
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000493/full
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
November Arctic Refreezing
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Dec 2, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2017/12/01/november-arctic-refreezing/
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
World Food Situation, FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief
Bumper crops boost global cereal supplies in 2017/18
Press Release, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Dec 7, 2017
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/
Burn more oil and feed the world
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 5, 2017
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/12/burn-more-oil-and-feed-the-world/
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Google is officially 100% sun and wind powered – 3.0 gigawatts worth
By John Fitzgerald Weaver, Electrek, Nov 30, 2017
https://electrek.co/2017/11/30/google-is-officially-100-sun-and-wind-powered-3-0-gigawatts-worth/
Link to report: Environmental Report
2017 Progress Update, By Staff Writers, Google, 2017
file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/google-2017-environmental-report%20(1).pdf
[SEPP Comment: A promotional piece.]
Massive, unprecedented, 10 out of 10, life threatening storm hits, drops 2 inches on Melbourne
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 3, 2017
“The Bureau of Meteorology has warned an ‘unprecedented’ amount of rain is expected to fall in Victoria over a three-day period.”
“FOR SALE: Newly constructed ARK. In good condition, got it ready for the floods but no longer required. Animals not included. #MelbourneStorm” [See Photo]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Does Bitcoin Really Cause Global Warming?
Editorial, IBD, Dec 7, 2017
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/does-bitcoin-really-cause-global-warming/
[SEPP Comment: Exposing the ridiculous in VOX and The New Republic.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
An interview with Dr. Susan Crockford on the Harvey et al. attack paper over polar bear research
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 7, 2017
[SEPP Comment: A paper in the journal Bioscience was little more than a personal attack on Crockford.]
Polar-Bear-Gate
By Paul Matthews, Climate Scepticism, Dec 6, 2017
https://cliscep.com/2017/12/06/polar-bear-gate/
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Moody’s Climate Change Delusion
By Justin Haskins and H. Sterling Burnett, IBD, Dec 8, 2017
https://www.investors.com/politics/commentary/moodys-climate-change-delusion/
“Coastal cities and towns across the United States are now facing significant pressure from Moody’s Investors Service, one of the world’s most important credit agencies, to battle climate change. Failing to do so, Moody’s warns, could result in downgraded credit ratings.”
“We must step up to tackle climate change”–Lloyds of London CEO
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 5, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Separating between what the CEO says, and what the reported pre-tax profit state.]
Questioning European Green
Energiewende “Fundamentally A Disaster” …Germany To Miss CO2 Reduction Targets By A Mile
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 6, 2017
Sir Ian Byatt: The Economic Consequences of UK Climate Change Policies
By Sir Ian Byatt, GWPF, Dec 7, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/sir-ian-byatt-the-economic-consequences-of-uk-climate-change-policies/
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Another hidden cost of intermittent renewables (It’s time to talk about FCAS and roaring price spikes!)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 7, 2017
“FCAS means ’Frequency Control Ancillary Service’. With an AC (or alternating current) system, frequency is everything — the rapid push-pull rhythm that is the power. FCAS is a way of keeping the beat close to the heavenly 50Hz hum (or 60Hz in America and Korea). Network managers cry when things stray outside 49.85Hz or 50.15Hz. So controlling the frequency is a very necessary “other service” supplied by traditional generators, but not so much from intermittent renewables.”
Funding Issues
NSF-funded research to forecast space weather, protect the power grid, pipelines and satellites
Press Release, NSF, Dec 4, 2017
https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/science_nation/spaceweather.jsp?WT.mc_id=USNSF_51
UN agency to US Congress: Drop dead
IARC takes US money, manipulates scientific studies, colludes with activists – and snubs Congress
Guest essay by Paul Driessen, WUWT, Dec 3, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/03/un-agency-to-us-congress-drop-dead/
Litigation Issues
Manufacturers push back against environmentalists’ climate court strategy
By John Siciliano, Washington Examiner, Dec 4, 2017 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Carbon Taxes Increase Global CO2 Emissions. Period.
By Spencer Morrison, National Economics Editorial, Dec 1, 2017
https://nationaleconomicseditorial.com/2017/12/01/carbon-taxes-increase-global-co2-emissions-period/
Via GWPF, Dec 2, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/carbon-taxes-increase-global-co2-emissions-period/
[SEPP Comment: Clear graphic on largest interregional fluxes of emissions embodied in trade, 2010, on GWPF]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
U.S. Tax Priorities Sack Big Wind
By Lisa Linowes, Master Resource, Dec 5, 2017
https://www.masterresource.org/production-tax-credit-ptc/us-tax-priorities-sack-wind/
[SEPP Comment: Which approach to use, limit the tax credit, or limit the ability of the wealthy to use it?]
Renewable Energy Investors Are the Big losers from Trump’s Massive Tax Reforms
By John Dizard, Financial Times, Dec 12, 2017
Solar Industry Stocks Slammed On Senate Tax Bill Provisions
By Brian Deagon, IBD, Dec 5, 2017
Energy Issues – Non-US
The world’s astonishing dependence on fossil fuels hasn’t changed in 40 years
By Akshat Rathi, Quartz, Dec 02, 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]
https://qz.com/1144207/the-worlds-astonishing-dependence-on-fossil-fuels-hasnt-changed-in-40-years/
[SEPP Comment: Let’s return to human and animal muscle power, and dung. They were more reliable than wind and solar.]
Europe’s Coal Plants Will Bleed More Cash Through Next Decade
By Jess Shankleman and Rachel Morison, Bloomberg, Dec 7, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
New Govt Rules May Cripple New Battery Storage Projects
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 7, 2017
UK’s remaining coal plants line up for £200m last hurrah
By Jillian Ambrose, Telegraph, UK, Dec 1, 2017
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/12/01/uks-remaining-coal-plants-line-200m-last-hurrah/
OPEC, Russia agree oil cut extension to end of 2018
By Alex Lawler, Rania El Gamal, and Shadia Nasralla, Reuters, Nov 30, 2017
Energy Issues — US
Understanding Microgrids
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Dec 5, 2017
http://www.powerforusa.com/2017/12/05/understanding-microgrids/
[SEPP Comment: Could hurricane force winds knock-out solar panels? Ask the managers of the marine library in Rockport, Texas.]
OPEC Just Did American Shale Drillers a Big Favor
By David Wethe and Devin Crowley, Bloomberg, Dec 1, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
7 Things About Life in Puerto Rico with No Electricity
By John Humphrey, IEEE Spectrum, Dec 4, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Serious comments followed by promotion of small-scale solar panels that may solve some small-scale problems, time-of-day and weather permitting.]
After Poland, Lithuania, Greece to become the 3rd EU country to import American LNG
US Ambassador Pyatt highlights Greece’s role in European energy security
By Kostis Geropoulos, New Europe, Dec 5, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/poland-lithuania-greece-become-3rd-eu-country-import-american-lng/
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
U.S. Shale To Surge After OPEC Extension
By Nick Cunningham, Oil Price.com, Nov 30, 2017
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Shale-To-Surge-After-OPEC-Extension.html
LNG is the fuel of choice, maritime shipper says
French companies Total and CMA CGM agree on LNG as a fuel source with first deliveries set for 2020.
By Daniel J. Graeber, UPI, Dec 4, 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
https://www.upi.com/LNG-is-the-fuel-of-choice-maritime-shipper-says/8431512385873/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
A Glimpse at Fake Energy News
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Dec 8, 2017
http://www.powerforusa.com/2017/12/08/a-glimpse-at-fake-energy-news/
[SEPP Comment: Even the Wall Street Journal carries wind power deception.]
Going off-grid in the UK
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Dec 6, 2017
http://euanmearns.com/going-off-grid-in-the-uk/#more-20393
[SEPP Comment: Andrews has demonstrated that using solar power and batteries for home energy use is not cost effective in sunny Tucson. Now, he demonstrates the combination is not cost effective in the UK. Surprised?]
U.S. East Coast Looks To Become Hub For Wind Power
By Precise Consultants, Oil Price.com, Nov 30, 2017
Britain Starts Dismantling Wind Farms After Successful Lake District Campaign
By Ben Webster, The Times, Via GWPF, Dec 8, 2017
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Toyota’s New Power Plant Will Create Clean Energy from Manure
Toyota is opening a megawatt-capacity power plant in California that uses cow manure to make electricity and hydrogen fuel. The plant is expected to open sometime around 2020.
By Patrick Caughill, Futurism, Dec 2, 2017
https://futurism.com/toyota-power-plant-clean-energy-manure/
[SEPP Comment: Those who spent their youth moving manure may not find it clean.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Electric Vehicles Aren’t Taking Over Our Roads as Fast as Hype Artists Claim
Both the rate of EV adoption and the environmental benefits the vehicles will produce have been oversold
By Vaclav Smil, IEEE Spectrum, Nov 20, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
Oh Mann!
Climate Scientists Harassing Women (asexually, of course)—Again—Matt Lauer, Meet Michael Mann
By Thomas Fuller, Climate Scepticism, Dec 1, 2017
Environmental Industry
Industrial Fishing Of Sandeels Is To Blame For Seabird Declines, Not Climate Change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 6, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Exposing headlines that have limited factual basis. RSPB is the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds.]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Trump’s Willing Accomplices
By Ian Buruma, Project Syndicate, Dec 5, 2017
“And, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, America’s financial health will suffer as well, with an estimated $1.214 trillion added to the deficit by 2027.”
[SEPP Comment: In 8 years, the Obama administration added about $7 to 8 trillion to the national debt, depending on how one calculates the influence of an administration on the Federal budget.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Australia Set To Export Wind & Solar Energy To Indonesia
By Joshua Hill, Clean Technica, Dec 1, 2017
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/01/australia-set-export-wind-solar-energy-indonesia/
[SEPP Comment: Will Indonesia need to develop its low-sulfur coal for back-up?]
Giant Fans will cool Great Barrier Reef to stop bleaching
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 7, 2017
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/12/giant-fans-will-cool-great-barrier-reef-to-stop-bleaching/
Countdown!
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Pediections.org, Dec 5, 2017
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/9368
“The world has ‘500 days to avoid climate chaos,’ French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said alongside Secretary of State John Kerry at the State Department on Tuesday. [2014]
“‘We have 500 days to avoid climate chaos,’ Fabius said. ‘And I know that President Obama and John Kerry himself are committed on this subject and I’m sure that with them, with a lot of other friends, we shall be able to reach success in this very important matter.’
“Fabius was referring to the next big United Nations climate conference, scheduled to open in Paris, France in November 2015, or in 565 days’ time.”
CNSNews, 13 May 2014
[SEPP Comment: Are we beyond climate chaos?]
Back to the trees!
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Dec 7, 2017
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/3236
“Climate justice is the understanding that we will not be able to stop climate change if we don’t change the neo-liberal, corporate-based economy which stops us from achieving sustainable societies. It is the understanding that corporate globalization must be stopped.
“Indigenous Peoples, peasant communities, fisherfolk, and especially women in these communities, have been able to live harmoniously and sustainably with the Earth for millennia. “They are now not only the most affected by climate change, but also the most affected by its false solutions, such as agrofuels, mega-dams, genetic modification, tree plantations and carbon offset schemes.
“Instead of market-based climate mitigation schemes, the sustainable practices of these peoples and communities should be seen as offering the real solutions to climate change.”
The Global Justice Ecology Project website
ARTICLES:
1. Low Food Prices Are Hurting Farm-State Economies
Iowa and South Dakota’s economies shrink as farmers add to a global food glut
By Sharon Nunn and Benjamin Parkin, WSJ, Dec 6, 2017
https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2017/12/06/low-food-prices-are-hurting-farm-state-economies/
(SUMMARY) The reporters write:
“Farmers are producing too much food, holding down prices and holding back economies in states with big agricultural industries.
“South Dakota and Iowa are the only two states in the country where gross domestic product fell in the second quarter. Ultra-low crop and livestock prices stemming from a global oversupply have squeezed farm incomes, pulling down Iowa’s GDP 0.7% and South Dakota’s 0.3% from the prior quarter.
“Elsewhere, low farm prices dented growth in 23 other states but not enough to tip them into decline, the Commerce Department said in a recent report. Overall, U.S. GDP advanced 2.8% nationwide during the same period. (These GDP figures exclude federal military and civilian activity located overseas, making the U.S. tally slightly lower than the more widely reported 3.1% growth rate for the second quarter.)”
Graphs showing the volatility of grain prices in the states compared with the US are given.
“Despite low prices, farmers in the U.S. and globally keep producing, suggesting that agriculture will continue to weigh on economies across the Great Plains and other states that are disproportionately dependent on farming and ranching for growth.
Iowa and South Dakota’s GDP have dropped four out of the six previous quarters. Overall, GDP across the seven states of the Great Plains also dropped four out of the six previous quarters.”
Due to the highly competitive market, incomes for independent farmers are expected to remain low soon. For example:
“Crop farmers in the Midwest and Great Plains recently harvested another bumper corn and soybean crop, while increasingly competitive producers in countries like Russia erode U.S. wheat farmers’ share of the global export market. Hog and cattle farmers, meanwhile, have taken advantage of cheap feed costs to expand their herds, exacerbating a buildup of red meat.”
The article concludes with a comment from a central Iowa farmer:
“’It’s wonderful we have this network, but we can’t reasonably expect all of us to act as one body…to address these larger economic issues,’ Mr. Lehman said. ‘We want to grow on every acre we have. We want to produce.’”
*****************
UN freedom from unapproved speech
UN freedom of climate religions
UN freedom from budget want
UN freedom from unapproved policy fear
Just a nit, but the sodium ion by itself has no effect on pH.
Sodium carbonate( Na2CO3) however has a ph of 10.97
Freedom from want is Orwellian, as it involves other people’s property or services.
I discovered a bit of a mystery last night. I was looking up historical temp records on Intellicast for the LA area, and I ended up with two different pages of data from the same link. One of the pages shows that for the month of December there were 23 high temp records set prior to 1980. While the other page shows that there were 15 high temps for the LA area prior to 1980.
For example here are some of the difference between the days of December on the two pages.
Dec 2nd=88F(1893), 11th=86F(1895), 12th=86F(1895), 14th=85F(1886), 18th=86F(1917), 19th=86F(1917)
Dec 2nd=85F(1993), 11th=85F(1958), 12th=84F(1988), 14th=84F(1953), 18th=84F(1985), 19th=95F(1985)
There are some more discrepancies between the two pages, but overall it seems as if all of the oldest data has been changed with a minor exception towards the end where Dec 28th=87F(1919), while the other page shows Dec 28th=86F(1929), both older records but 1919 was discarded for 1929. Did they decide the older data was not valid? Here is the link to the page, but you will most likely not be able to load the page showing the older dated records. That page popped up 3 times for me, but now it no longer loads to the original. I saved a screenshot of the page in question just so that I could prove that my words are true, and that I am not totally crazy. …http://www.intellicast.com/Local/History.aspx?location=USCA0638
correction= the date of Dec 19th on the current Intellicast page shows 85F and not 95F. Interesting set of days the 18th and 19th as one page shows 86F for two days in a row in 1917. While the next page shows the record days as 1985 at 84F, 85F.
‘Venezuela with a score of 33.6 is 29; and the US with a score of 20.7 is number 108.’
Venezuela building a wall to keep people out?
‘There is no question that carbon dioxide (CO2) is a greenhouse gas’
It’s a theory. Unproven.
From link above
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
‘The climate cooled from 1940-1975 while CO2
was rising rapidly (Figures 4a,b).’
It is a theory. If true, it is overwhelmed by other factors, making it irrelevant.
I state it bluntly: Atmospheric CO2 concentration, within modern bounds, is irrelevant to global mean temperature.
‘There is no question that carbon dioxide (CO2) is a greenhouse gas’
Absurd. What is your proof? Data from earth, the actual subject of concern, shows the opposite. Either it is false, or irrelevant.
I wrote about “The Faux Freedoms” back in 2007 for the Manhattan Libertraian Serf City tabloid : http://cosy.com/Liberty/LoL/FauxFreedoms.html .