Guest essay by Eric Worrall
You would think after past embarrassments climate scientists would have learned not to trust model predictions that snowfall will soon be a thing of the past.
Global warming melts hopes of a white Christmas in Ireland
A leading climatologist has some bad news for snow-lovers
By Nick Bramhill
14:31, 12 NOV 2017
The prospect of Ireland waking up to a white Christmas is becoming more and more unlikely every year, according to a leading climatologist.
Prof John Sweeney said that Ireland can expect increasingly warmer winters due to global warming, resulting in less snowfall in the traditionally coldest months of the year.
…
He said: “The projections are for Ireland to warm by 1C by mid-Century, and we’re looking at both warmer summers and winters.
“We’ll always get snow in the uplands and mountains, but we’ll start to see less snow in the lowland areas in the coming years, and that means we’ll get fewer and fewer white Christmases. Let’s put it this way, if I were a betting man I wouldn’t be putting any money on there being snowfall on Christmas Day. It’s getting less likely each year.”
…
Read more: http://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/global-warming-melts-hopes-white-11509570
We no longer seem to have so many of the kind of special moments when scientists and advocates predict snow will end in 10 years, but even the middle of the century is drawing uncomfortably close to being falsifiable on a reasonable timescale.
Of course, climate scientists can trot out predictions that global warming will cause heavier snowfalls when the inevitable blockbuster winter hits, to demonstrate they were right all along.
Update (EW): h/t Michael Jankowski – bookies have just slashed the odds of an Irish White Christmas in Dublin, with experts predicting one of the coldest winters ever.
A snow famine ?
Not .
Not a ‘snow famine’ SOB, just an intellectual one. Same old, same old.
That-sno-famine…it’s a brainwreck
I was brought up in Scotland, just North of Glasgow, from 1966. I can’t recall ever having a white Christmas.
I moved to the SE of England which is roughly 3 or 4 degrees C warmer than Scotland, so no chance of a snowy Christmas.
In the winter of, I think 2009/2010 a friend of mine in the Aberdeen area endured almost 6 months of continuous snow. From memory, the only meaningful Christmas snows in our living memory of 50 or so years then.
We had it in the SE of England, not for nearly as long, and, unsurprisingly, still missed out on a white Christmas, although most of December and January brought snow.
Weather does some weird sh*t. I guess a Dickensian Christmas was around the Little Ice Age. All very romantic, assuming you have the money to keep yourself and your family warm.
And TBH, as much as I love snow, I would far rather it be a thing of the past, we had a warmer planet, and healthier people.
The Big Chill is here! Britain is colder than Russian Arctic as three-week freeze arrives with -7C cold and England’s first snow (and there are ALREADY fears we’ll run out of grit)
Britain faces a three-week Arctic cold spell with temperatures that will be colder than an parts of Russia
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5074507/Britain-faces-three-week-arctic-freeze.html
It would help if there was a graph for a location actually showing a time series of when there was snow observed on Christmas Day.
It is called observational data. Geoff.
Latitude, you can rely on the DM for the annual grit panic.
Hot Scot, we had snow on Christmas Day that year 2009. It was darned cold too; -13C around Worcester though milder around Brum. Sliding on ice in Cumbria where snow had packed, melted and frozen again.
I remember a Christmas Day in Reading when it snowed in the evening.
The Irish might feel milder as they benefit from the Gulf Stream.
I doubt that anywhere in the British Isles at near sea level has had many, or any, white Christmases in fifty years. It might be worth checking the very hard winters of 1947 and 1963 for a white Christmas. Christmas is typically mild: fit for a pleasant afternoon walk.
By the way, is the SE of England roughly 3 or 4 degrees C warmer than Glasgow in December? Not where I live, I think.
Prof John Sweeny said, “Ireland can expect increasingly warmer winters… resulting in less snowfall in the coldest months of the year.”
…and Irish everywhere rejoice!
Meanwhile in Dublin Airport hallway the band pays on…
https://youtu.be/g5YFxklKsvc
AT the other end of the same planet, on an island about the same size and with significant Irish settlement (‘forced’ or otherwise) there as also excellent snow this winter juts gone. In fact we had some excellent spring snow in mid October. Those bloody Irish! Talk about the troubles! Why can’t they just agree with ‘the concensus’?
First a potato famine, then a Snow Famine. At least they don’t need to eat the snow.
Especially yellow snow
Great Googley-moogley!
If the probability of snow on Christmas day was less than 50% in the past 50 years or so, that would be a good bet regardless of climate change. In other words, so what?
I’ve seen predictions of 50% chance of below average often, unless its temperature in which case its always 50% chance of higher than average.
There is a 100% chance of snow on Christmas Day. The only question is where.
First of all, define a white xmas. Then realise that the UK gets one of those about 7 times in 100 years.
Snow on your boots.
I recall an old joke about an Irish grandmother whose horse was guaranteed to always come in last to which her attitude was “Yes, but I got great odds”.
If anywhere in the world could use 3 or 4 degrees of global warming it would be Ireland!
“July is the hottest month in Dublin with an average temperature of 16°C (60°F) and the coldest is January at 5°C (41°F) with the most daily sunshine hours at 6.3 in May. The wettest month is August with an average of 80mm of rain.”
People are just laughing at this clown.
I’m not so sure. My wife and I traveled there in late May 1997. Had a lot of the locals pointing out to us that the US didn’t sign up to Kyoto, and that was the reason why they were undergoing an unbearable heat spell. The high temps were on the news every morning.
Funny thing – we Americans were wearing t-shirts, flip-flops, and shorts. The locals were wearing shirts, jackets, long pants, etc.
They were smart. The high while we were there was a blistering 68 ° F. With the constantly blowing wind, it was a little uncomfortable. But the condemnation was hard to take. If it’s so hot, take off your jacket. But they really seemed to like it cold. I don’t think there was a snowbird among them.
A ‘blistering 68˚F’ love it.
Ah! but the gentle rain blowing in off the Atlantic is warm, so it is…
I was there for 2 weeks in July of 1990. Cloudless skies and mid-to-high 70’s all the time. Weird to see an entire nation with sunburn. I joked with the locals that I brought the weather with me from NJ and I’d have to take it back when I left. Sure enough, when I flew out the weather turned back to the 60’s and rainy.
Evidently the Irish don’t have access to the internet and can’t read the chart of the AMO and interpret its long term cycle or the north Atlantic Ccean time-depth-temperature chart from ARGO data re-posted at the following…..
http://climate4you.com/
….at the oceans section
I suppose it’s an Irish intellect famine now.
Or the Arctic oscillation and the polar vortex and all…….
http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
Mac
Ah, you know him too, Charles. He is indeed a clown. Many things I am proud about being Irish, but he’s not one of them. He has his Butt well covered though with the whole ” less likely” bit. Less likely doesn’t mean it’s out of the question. So he can’t be called out if we get dumped on this Christmas. Hopefully more of his brethren will trot out his message though. Just so it’s not forgotten he said it. Might just take the smug condescending tone a while to resurface.
Eamon.
Snow is quite rare in the British isles due to the warmth of the surrounding seas. Ireland is further west and more susceptible to the mild Atlantic waters.
A place like Dublin! being on the coast, would only get a Christmas snow fall, briefly, on average every six years.
Here is an article giving the frequency of christmas snow falls which has seen the snow average bear up well in the modern era.
http://www.thejournal.ie/snow-ireland-facts-723323-Dec2012/
In England the temperature has been gently declining since the turn of the entry, although still at a relatively high level historically. I don’t know if the same is true of Ireland.
The myths of frequent snowy winters was promulgated by such as Charles dickens who lived through a particularly cold period of the intermittent little ice age.
Tonyb
Dickens lived – he died in 1870 – in a relatively warming period of the Little Ice Age.
Relatively warming -s o still pretty chilly.
And we can discuss when the LIA ended.
I have no opinion – merely noting that the 1930s were, pretty much, the same as the 1990s, although – using unfudged temperatures – perhaps a bit warmer.
[One i the eye for our Warmunista ‘Pals’.].
Smiles,
Auto
Dickens was born in 1812, during the Dalton Minimum, so most of his life and work occurred during the LIA. Arguably all of it, according to some datings.
But you’re right that as an adult, he never experienced the worst of the LIA.
Dickens’s writing is dominated not by the years he lived in as an adult, but the years of his childhood. I dare say that applied to weather too.
From “The Way of all Flesh”, Samuel Butler, written between 1873 and 1884, chapter III, referring to his younger days:
“In those days the snow lay longer and drifted deeper in the lanes than it does now, and the milk was sometimes brought in frozen in winter, and we were taken down into the back kitchen to see it. I suppose there are rectories up and down the country now where the milk comes in frozen sometimes in winter, and the children go down to wonder at it, but I never see any frozen milk in London, so I suppose the winters are warmer than they used to be.”
I live just to the SW of London and do remember going out in the morning and finding frozen milk. It used to be delivered in pint bottles with just some foil sealing it and a few times I went outside and the milk was about an inch higher than the bottle and one morning still had the foil perfectly in place. This was in the early 70’s
Hey Ireland! I’ve got one word for you … California. 2016 … RECORD SETTING SNOWPACK … in the middle of the “never-ending Global Warming drought” … as decreed by Gov. Jerry Brown
As someone who frequents the back country of the Sierra Nevada mountains once or twice per month during the summer, I can attest that what was left of the snow pack in September and October was the most I’ve ever seen, including 2011 when even more snow fell during the winter and an even larger fraction of the total fell during the Spring. Even the previous season, which was only a normal snow year, the late summer snow pack was more than usual. I’ve also noticed that the summer hiking hasn’t been as rough as it was in years past, largely because of cooler temperatures at high altitudes. I tend to believe my own senses, rather than models …
As Ronald Reagan said … “now there you go again” … using your own senses, life’s experiences, and history to undermine a “perfectly programmed” computer model. I have lived everyone of my 61 years in the State of CA … and have experienced/witnessed multiple droughts, and deluges. Last year (and 2011) were EXCEPTIONAL years. I drove around the lake in June … and the ploughed piles of snow were still stacked 6-12ft tall along each side of Hwy89 on the West side. I have NEVER seen that in June in all the years I have spent at Tahoe (going back to 1960). And I was still traversing snowfields deep into the summer whilst stalking the Rainbow and Brown trout in my favorite streams and meadows. And you CORRECTLY identified 2011 as a MASSIVE snowfall year … and let me add that 2015 was essentially a NORMAL snowfall year in the Central Sierra … by my count that was a 4-year drought. Meh. NORMAL for CA … totally NORMAL … yet the Climate LIARS kept stretching the drought alllllll the way into 2017. Effen LIARS
kenji,
Yes, last season was an exceptional snow year followed by a cooler than normal summer. There’s patch of snow off of 108 at about 9000 feet that I call June chute. It’s close to the road and a trivial hike, but usually burns out by late June or early July. This year, I skied it in August on my way back from skiing Mammoth. In early October before it started snowing again there was still some snow in it, but I headed towards Levitt Lake instead. More snow and steeper pitches … BTW, until they recently replaced the imagery, you could see my tracks in the google Earth satellite picture of the snow field I usually ski.
Is there some reason that these guys have a need to set themselves up for failure like this? I’ve been trying to understand what it is that drives them to do this, but beyond a desperate need for attention, I don’t get it.
How many winters has Ireland gone without snow in the lowlands? If it’s going go do this in Ireland – deprive the locals of Christmas Day snows (which are seldom predicted correctly anywhere) – then how will that affect Wales and Cornwall? Will if have an impact on Cornish beef pasties and figgy hobbin? Will the pubs be open or closed?
He’s talking about weather, not climate. I do wish that he and his “friends” would get their category straight.
1) The pubs will still be open.
2) Cornish beef pasties will still be delicious.
3) Figgy hobbins will still be awful.
Oh, I almost forgot 4) snow will still fall, except when it doesn’t.
I had to Google figgy hobbins. Apparently, they are sort of what American’s would call a raisin cookie. I love oatmeal raisin cookies, why wouldn’t I like figgy hobbins. BTW, if they are made with raisins, why do the Brits call them figgy?
[Better figgy hobbins than raisin’ hobbits. .mod]
mod is not being helpful.
In Cornwall, raisins and currants were often referred to as figs. Further to complicate matters, figs were called “broad raisins”. Don’t ask me why.
Figgie hobbins can also be made with currants.
My guess is, after a little research, …… that they were first made with figs, ……. like maybe 2,000+- years ago when the Romans were in Britain, …… and even though raisins are now the “dried fruit of choice”, the original name still persists in the language. To wit:
Oh, figgy hobbin is more like a strudel pastry with a filling of raisins and (in my case) chopped nuts. It’s served warm from the oven (or reheated in the microwave) with caramel sauce drizzled onto it and whipped cream as a topping. It’s really good if it’s done right.
They serve it as a dessert at the Red Rooster Inn in Mineral Point, Wisconsin, a town that was founded by Cornish hardrock miners imported from Cornwall for that purpose.
See, now I’m starving for a supper of beef pasty, a pot of hot tea, and a good helping of figgy hobbin.
How can one NOT like a gooey, sugary, desert like that ? How could that ever be considered awful?
Is there some reason that these guys have a need to set themselves up for failure like this?….
Sara, he’s a IPCC contributor…they have to toe the line or admit they were wrong
Oh, NOW I see. I did not know that! Thank you for the info!
I kind of do have a plan for when their lack of understanding backfires on them and they’re all out of things they take for granted. But that’s because I’m not dependent on ‘the store’ for stuff, and they are. I also cook. 🙂
Actually it is all about keeping the myth alive so that it can still be used as the boogie man to create world government and to compartmentalize humans into little, non interacting groups.
You can apparently actually bet on this sort of thing
https://www.joe.ie/news/irish-bookies-are-predicting-a-white-christmas-41225
But of course he’s “not a betting man.” He isn’t even staking his reputation. He’ll have excuses for it later.
He just moved the bet out to where he wouldn’t be alive…..he’s almost 60
Gotta love the Brits … you can BET on anything. Why you can even BET that BREXIT will FAIL … all the way up till the final count … ha ha … YOU LOSE, Marxists !
Is there any reason to associate Christmas with snow?
I mean, why are we so concerned about a Christmas without snow?
There’s no reason for me, except I have to chuckle a little bit about some Christmas carols.
All goes back to Dickens & A Christmas Carol.
Which was published towards the end of the LIA in 1843.
@rah
Almost all carols came from that time.
LIA is a good keyword.
Especially in the Southern hemisphere.
Yeah, but no one lives there.
http://www.rockyhigh66.org/stuff/aussie_map.png
Yes I do !!
It’s got more to do with the pagan winter solstice and burning the Yule log, putting holly on the door frame to chase away the Frost Giants, and settling in for the long nights or winter than anything else. The Romans celebrated the Saturnalia, knicked the Gauls’ Yuletide celebrations when Christianity became officially Roman, and turned it into Christmas.
That’s the condensed version, and I am Spartacus!
Not necessarily, Sara. It’s possible that early Christians actually knew which day Jesus was conceived (which is what they would likely consider the critical moment.)
According to the Book, Mary went to see her cousin Elizabeth, who was six months pregnant with John the Baptist, immediately after the Blessed event . . and Elizabeth said that the baby jumped at the sound of Mary’s greeting as she approached. Marty told her what she had experienced . . A memorable day . . which could have been remembered, ya know? ; )
You might enjoy, or not, the movie “Holiday Inn” starring Bing Crosby and Fred Astaire, with music by Irving Berlin. Specifically written for the film, Crosby’s “White Christmas” has been reported to be the biggest-selling single worldwide of all time. Beyond that, it is believed that 500 recorded versions of the song have been released.
The movie “White Christmas” (1954) is an American musical romantic comedy starring Bing Crosby, Danny Kaye, Rosemary Clooney, and Vera-Ellen, and NO snow until the very end when there is and everyone lives happily ever after.
Two coats, Ted and Don were hanging in a closet.
TED: I haven’t seen you in a week.
DON: Yes. I was sent to a seamstress, and she sewed sequins all over me.
TED: They took me to the tailor, and he sewed lace on my cuffs and collar.
DON: What on earth’s going on here?
TED: Don, we now are gay apparel.
[Whittinghill, KMPC]
Just have to give you a +1 on that forehead slapper.
Probably goes back to Bing Crosby “Dreaming of a white Christmas” for most people.
“I mean, why are we so concerned about a Christmas without snow?”
I doubt many of we are . . ; ) I think it’s just another lame attempt by some socially retarded geeks to dramatize the CAGW issue.
We seem to have strange fascination about snow. I live in Finland and here we complain all the time how cold it is in the winter. Then, when we get warmer winter we complain that we have a warm winter, and the only possible reason why that happens is obviously climate change. And when it gets really cold we complain what that does to homeless people. We romantize heavy snow and then complain how it makes driving conditions awful and causes all those car crashes and kills people. Oh, and climate change apparently causes snow too, so no matter what happens there is always something and someone to blame and complain about. It’s amusing and a little sad too.
I live in Ireland and am 51 years of age and the only white Christmases I have experienced were post 2000, in particular 2009 and 2010. As for Professor John Sweeney – he falls under the category of the usual under qualified gas bag who is given a completely uncritical welcome by a fawning Irish media. In other words ignore and move on.
More scary for Ireland (and any small place that puts all its electricity generation eggs in one basket) are the very cold winter spells with no wind, or the rare hurricanes with too much wind for the turbines. I wonder if the Prof would like to research trends in those events.
Northern Ireland, or the Republic ? I expect the Republic hangs on every word of the MET office and the IPCC … whereas I expect the industrialized Northern Ireland to think more … independently ? BTW … the Northern Ireland football team were totally skrewed by a horror phantom penalty call. Absolutely shameful. Sadly … FIFA is going to have to adopt video replay to correct horrific errors like the one that ruined N. Ireland’s World Cup dream
NI is being de-industrialised by very high electricity prices, because of Green Anti-Correlation, the smaller the economy the more zealous they are about de-carbonisation, which apparently is a vote winner thanks to the resulting job losses and higher consumer bills never getting a mention in the MSM, especially the BBC.
They know that with control of the peer review process and the Primary Media Outlets that they can hide their false prophecies and then turn their guns on real scientists who make copious notes and point out their failed predictions.. it is all laid out in their Alinsky strategies. Bang the drums of fear and guilt. discredit those pointing out the lack of science behind the drumbeats, deny the truth and hide the decline. Rinse and repeat. It matters not that the end of days did not come as predicted only that it is coming and we need to keep the masses believing that central government can save them from it.
Does he wear a bow-tie? He and Bill Nye the dumb-ass guy could be twins.
Noun . doofus (plural doofuses or doofi)
Professor John Sweeney “Let’s put it this way, if I were a betting man I wouldn’t be putting any money on there being snowfall on Christmas Day. It’s getting less likely each year.”
Well the probability of white Christmases in Ireland just went up!
BTW it’s looking like another outstanding ski season coming for the NW and NE US.
The first Tahoe ski resport opened Oct 27th. Seems like it will be a good year out west as well.
The Grand Targhee resort in SW Wyoming right up against the Idaho border in the Tetons opens the 17th.
I was there for my sons wedding early in July. The cornices were still there and the valley to the west still snow covered. Pic of my son and I at the top of the ski mountain at about 10,000 ft. with the 13,000’+ peak of Grand Teton behind us taken July 5th this year.
Loved to ski in Targee when i lived there back in 84-85.
Mac
I’ll hit the OTB office up the road at the intersection and find out what odds they’re giving on it.
lol snow on Christmas day, I’m 44 and can count on one hand I think, how many times we have had snow on Christmas day, extremely few.
This Sweeney is a bit of a moron imo
Those rare years we do get snow around Christmas in Ireland, we have lots of those slow motion crashes 😀 Not a set of snow types in the republic 😀
*Tyres
My dad once told me snow tyres are a waste of money, unless all the the jerks in front of you are using them, you’re still stuffed.
*Tires (to the Irish on the other side of the pond).
By the averages, I’m about ten or fifteen years away from another white Christmas here in Tucson (last time was before my first child was born). Last time was actually rather glorious; the streets were essentially empty as I drove across town to join the family. I believe the natives thought it was poisonous…
Arizona? Yeah, I’d buy that.
Writing Observer, Lived in Tucson from 1954 to 1977 and NEVER saw a white Christmas in the valley, although maybe a few in the foothills, although I heard about one ca. late 80’s or early 90’s, so don’t count on the 10-15 year thing. My M.O. in Tucson in winter was to ski Mt. Lemon in the day and sit outside by the pool in the valley all evening.
We used to use tire chains in the winter until snow tires came along. Now it’s all-season tires, because tire manufacturers don’t want the customers to lose faith in their products, and studded tires are illegal because they tear up pavement. (Yeah, like salt and snowplows don’t do that at all.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Christmas_(weather)#White_Christmases_in_the_United_Kingdom
At Dublin Airport, there have been 12 Christmas Days with snowfall since 1941 (1950, 1956, 1962, 1964, 1970, 1984, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2000 and 2004). The statistical likelihood of snow falling on Christmas Day at Dublin Airport is approximately once every 5.9 years. However, the only Christmas Day at the airport ever to have lying snow at 09:00 was 2010 (although no snow actually fell that day), with 20 cm (7.9 in) recorded.
1941-77 cool cycle: 1950, 1956, 1962, 1964, 1970
1978-2014 warmth: 1984, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2004, plus 2010
Looks as if warmer means more snow in Dublin.
Snowfall in Ireland:
http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/SnowfallAnal.pdf
SnowfallAnal.pdf?
I am afraid to click on that link. I don’t know why.
I did it, I did it! It didn’t hurt…
OK, I’ll summarize the analysis.
Record breaking Irish snowfalls in 2000 and 2010, despite supposed warming. Or maybe because of slight natural warming, recovering from the cool cycle of c. 1945-77, which followed the natural warming of c. 1918-44, which is indistinguishable from the late 20th century warming.
I also found these two articles online:
http://www.rte.ie/centuryireland/index.php/blog/traditional-white-christmas-thought-to-be-a-myth
http://www.thejournal.ie/every-white-christmas-in-ireland-2483826-Dec2015/
Compared to the usual Carbon Dioxide is going to kill us all if we don’t ACT NOW!!! nonsense, this isn’t bad at all. It’s defensible, and might even be right although that’s not how I’d bet. I think I can speak for most folks living in cold climates. I’ll get by somehow if Winter mornings are a bit above 0F (-15C) rather than a bit below.
One thing though. There’s little question that CO2 is a greenhouse gas. That’s been known since the late 19th century. And the data collection at Mauna Loa stands up pretty well to scrutiny. Atmospheric CO2 is surely increasing. So the notion that it might change climate some isn’t patently absurd. The issue is how. The climate models are clearly a joke. But that doesn’t mean there will be NO impact.
One thing I’ve observed that might be a sign of what’s to come is an increase in heavy snowfalls here in Northwest Vermont. Here are the 20 largest snowfalls at Burlington, VT where records go back before 1900
Burlington, Vermont
Top 20 Greatest Snowstorms
Rank Snowfall Dates Month/Year
1 33.1” 2-3 Jan 2010
2 30.4” 14-15 Mar 2017
3 29.8” 25-28 Dec 1969
4 25.8” 6-7 Mar 2011
5 25.7” 14-15 Feb 2007
6 24.7” 13-14 Jan 1934
7 22.9” 5-6 Mar 2001
8 22.4” 13-14 Mar 1993
9 20.0” 25 Nov 1900
10 19.7” 25-28 Jan 1986
11 19.1” 16-17 Mar 1937
12 18.8” 14-15 Dec 2003
13 18.7” 12-13 March 2014
14 18.3” 6-7 Dec 2003
14 17.8” 3-4 Jan 2003
16 17.8” 4-5 Feb 1995
17 17.7” 3-4 Mar 1994
18 17.2” 6-8 Feb 2008
19 17.1” 25-26 Feb 1966
20 16.9” 25 Dec 1978
Observe that the span is at least 117 years and that more than half the heavy snowfalls have been in the last quarter century.
Could be from more water vapor in the air.
In the Intermountain West, we say it’s too cold to snow when the air is dry and sky is cloudless.
If I had to guess, I’d say that if there is any significant change in the snowfall pattern, it comes from some change in strength/speed/average storm path of North American Atlantic Coastal Storms (“Noreasters”). Those things pump prodigious amounts of mild, wet, Gulf Stream warmed air inland where it encounters frigid air from the Arctic and Northern Plains. Just West of the snow-rain dividing line snowfall amounts of 2-3-or more inches an hour are not uncommon. On the bright side, they are windy, snowy, but not all that cold.
Don,
No doubt you’re right. Very different WX pattern in the NE of the US than the NW.
Don: Most Irish people would plotz if they woke up and it were anywhere near 0°F.. They very seldom get below freezing for very long. Your town of Burlington can get colder than the hind end of a brass monkey. I have been in VT when it was cold enough to cause the water in streams boil. They have never seen that kind of weather in Ireland. BTW, Burlington, at 44°N is well south of Dublin which is at 53°N.
Incorrect, its below freezing most days during winter here all across the island, and yes we have seen cold weather here, 2009 and 2010 was bad, and on top of that the cold here is worst because its still very humid.
@ P Malone: Walter was talking about 0°F. (32 F degrees below freezing),not 0°C.
@ Roger Knights
I understood Walter Sobchak’s sentence that Irish people would go plotz if they woke up to 0°F.
I would agree with that, as we got those temperatures in Ireland in 2010 and then went plotz.
http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/extreme-mintemps.pdf
I also understood that he used Fahrenheit.
But then he makes a new sentence which says “They very seldom get below freezing for very long.”
As you well know freezing occurs at higher temperatures than 0°F, temperatures which we have almost everyday here in Ireland during winter, and sometimes temperatures that feel as cold as 0°F with our humid and windy conditions.
Don K writes: “… little question that CO2 is a greenhouse gas …”
We can agree that CO2 is a ‘radiatively active gas’ but it has nothing to do with a greenhouse being warm. It is used in greenhouses to provided plants with a substance they need to grow.
Earth’s atmosphere works in remarkable ways and the role of CO2 is hotly debated.
If OCO-2 has provided mankind anything, it debunked the CACA claims of CO2 being evenly mixed in the outside air.
In my opinion Mauna Loa observatory in the middle of Pacific serves as a (hopefully untampered) reference point for estimating how much an active volcano can contribute to the errors and omissions of CACA gas conjecture.
“If OCO-2 has provided mankind anything, it debunked the CACA claims of CO2 being evenly mixed in the outside air.”
https://www.popsci.com/antarctica-carbon-dioxide-hits-400ppm
Thanks Toneb. Measuring average monthly outside air composition parts per million in Hawaii sounds like a really fun job. I enjoy local habitation and can apply for that, if you can agree to station yourself anywhere in Antarctica.
The future generations can use the measurement values for quantifying the errors and omissions in the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Conjecture Alarm logic. After all, in both measuring points Gaia’s flatulence messes up the local outside air more than all the mankind put together elsewhere on the planet’s 510.1 million km² surface.
Perhaps you know why OCO-2 has turned out oddly silent
Jaakko,
OCO-2 science teams just published a number of data-laden peer-reviewed articles in the 13 October 2017 Science magazine.
The biggest finding in my opinion is that they found with OCO-2 data conclusively shows tropical forests are sources rather than sinks. Complete reversal of that paradigm.
The whole CO2 sources and sinks paradigms are slowly unraveling, and will contnue to unravel as the Climate Change hustle slowly unravels.
The Russians did it.
I sincerely hope some Skeptical scribe is recording every Alarmist prediction into a data..base somewhere safe (and un..homogenizable!!) to demontrate the irrationality, bias, and sinecure..retentive tendentiousness of the Alarmist Hysterics.
Here’s a site that does a pretty good job of that:
http://climatechangepredictions.org/
Dear RAH…. many tks for this link. They are on the right track recording these excessively extrapolated and unsubstantiated claims, but unfort’ly only seem to go back to circa 2014.
Modern Alarmist gurus can scare the wits out of us with apocalyptic assertions one or two generations the future, but would it not be nice to contrast their predecessors’ wildly inaccurate prognoses APPLYING TO TODAY from one or two generations IN THE PAST!!!
Is there a coherent and good record of such pronouncements?
Tony Heller does a great job of going through the old newspaper and magazine archives by subject and showing what was predicted or claimed back then compared to now. His blog posts are done by subject and some the articles he posts copies of date back to the late 19th century though most are from the 20th.
Here is the link to his current site. You will also find a link there to his previous site that is still up and has a lot more material.
https://realclimatescience.com/
Then there is this which claims to be a complete list of all things claimed to be caused by global warming. http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
Here is a good one with Tony doing exactly what you were asking for today:
https://realclimatescience.com/2017/11/nasa-arctic-ice-free-and-manhattan-underwater-in-six-weeks/
There is a migratory imperative that leads climate hypesters to endlessly travel from one failed prediction to another.
Polar bears, Tibetan glaciers, slr, “acidification”, coral, etc. etc.
All mighty predictions that have never come true.
Do not blame the Irish – they are well aware snow continues to fall on their isle (to be sure)!!
My grandmother insisted it was sprinkled with star dust.
She should know, having come from Ballinamore (Béal an Átha Móir).
Since temperatures have already risen by 0.7C or some number, the physical properties of snow should show some reduction in cover.
Snow only occurs when temperatures are around 0.0C and the ground has cooled off to -2.0C or so. So why does North America have record snow cover right now.
Obviously the physical properties of water have changed.
This is the only way we can check what they have done to the temperature records. You got snow right now. Do you usually have snow now. Nothing has farken changed then despite the obviously adjusted temperature record. The physical properties of water would have to have changed.
The “Appeal to Snow” is just one variant of the Warmunist’s Appeal to Emotion. Snow, especially at Christmas time has a long cultural history of being appealing. And think just of the vehicle in which Santa rides – a sleigh. So the very idea of snow eventually disappearing would be a distressing one, tugging on the emotions, which is the whole idea of course. You’re supposed to have feewings, not use your brain.
LOL https://www.thesun.ie/news/1782711/bookies-slash-odds-on-christmas-day-snow-at-dublin-airport-after-experts-predict-one-of-coldest-winters-ever/
“…BOOKIES have slashed the odds of a White Christmas after experts revealed we’re set for one of the coldest winters of all time.
Snow falling at Dublin Airport at any stage during the month of December has dropped from 4/5 to just 1/3…”
Hilarious 🙂
He meant to kiss the Blarney Stone, but kissed the Blindinglystupid Stone instead.
And his lips stuck.
Since we have been reliably informed that planet Niburu will collide with Earth on November 21, 2017 (having failed to collide with Earth on October 21, October 31, and November 7,etc.) and will cause another Mass Extinction Event, we will never get to experience the horrors of Global Warming, er… Climate Change…, er more peer-reviewed Climate Science.
Is /sarc necessary?
Snow is getting rarer in the UK. Here is a Met Office plot:
Sorry, here
Nick .
Of course there is less snow .Did you forget that the experts warned the world that we were heading for a mini ice age in the 1960s and 1970s . .And then the climate warmed but there is absolutely no proof that CO2 is to blame
.Natural climate variability Nick you know this but you are to stubborn to admit it
Nick, you thingy you posted stops at 2010…..Dec 2010 was a major snowstorm….and Jan 2016 was this
Britain Bracing for Extreme Winter, as Torrential Rain turns to Snow
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/11/britain-bracing-for-extreme-winter-as-torrential-rain-turns-to-snow/
BTW Telegraph is running the same blink you’re running…../snark
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/12/often-does-snow-fall-uk-getting-rarer/
I’ve got a question about that blink…..if the average is 4….do they show it as 2 to 4…or 4 to 6?
…and who in their right mind would complain about 2 less days of snow in a month?
Latitude,
Strange, I don’t remember any snow in southern England in January 2016.
(Check link)
Ah, a Daily Express forecast, say no more.
Also,
The chart was for January, so included the cold and snowy January 2009.
Plus they are 30 year averages.
Dear Nick,
The discussion is about Irish snow. That map you put up leaves out Ireland.
BTW I believe this clown Mr Sweeney comes from Glasgow and is a Professor of something or other at what used to be Maynooth seminary for training priests.
Not too surprising he is now Ireland’s “go to” global warmist in line with the present Pope who is the head of the new Gaia worshipping religion.
Interestingly that for England at least, whilst snow has become less common during winter as a whole, the 30 year averages do show a slight increase
I suspect this is mainly due to December 2010.
Here are the maps for winter.
There seems to be little change between the 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 periods, but there was more snow during 1961-1990. I suspect the bleak winter of 62/63 might be a factor.
My conclusion is that snow in the UK is very unpredictable, and isn’t the best guide to how the climate is changing.
You lost me now Nick. What are you trying to communicate? Why this country? Why this period?
When and where did a successful politician (notably her anti-coal policies) dissolve the local left/labour union dynasty? To the point domestic coal-fires were condemned at least in urban zones, in favour of more CACA friendly natural gas? When should the effects of these policies be observable?
Didn’t she go far enough? More is needed? And to do what exactly in Cacaverse? To increase:
1) Local snow/sleet fall?
2) Unfavourable conditions for solar and wind energy supply?
3) Energy prices?
4) ‘Eat Or Heat’ proportion of the local population?
Why on Earth UK’s left-green dimension today pushes the policies of their most openly hated female politician? To the point of voluntarily freeze-starving their own potential electorate? Even Maggie herself seemed to caution against it.
I think if snow fades in Britain, including Ulster, the Ireland will go the same way. I’m not advocating more snow – just observing what is happening.
Well, I’m also trying to observe what’s happening. And your contribution has indeed opened my eyes:
If CACA compliant carbon dioxide reduction policies haven’t produced desired average outside air temperature moderating effects even in the planet’s CACA enterprising country, why should they work any better elsewhere?
So, I’m skeptical, but not categorical. I remain willing to give Catastrophic Anthropogenic Conjecture Alarm faith another change. Since skeptics are repeatedly asked for ideas, I have now one. I’m proposing a smaller scale CO2 reduction pilot project:
All publicly funded multinational CACA junkets and CACA establishments should be closed as of 31 December 2017. We can calculate how much it would reduce CO2 emissions. The local weather forecasters can then be assigned to measure the outside air values, calculate anomalies to the new reference point and why not also to their own forecasts. They can report the results locally annually. The pilot project can be closed on 31 December 2047. Should be easy to organise without further ado. After all, the CACA science is already settled. Right? In 2048 we should have actual figures how much the average outside air temperature and composition has been affected. It would give far more solid basis for the policies year 2100 or so.
Nick Stokes
Having lived through the periods in your charts I can say that the second period was preferable to the first, and the third was preferable to the second. Some may say pests survive better in mild winters but so do humans, unless you consider tham as pests then it’s a good thing.
Dr Sweeney, a leading climatologist, during his research found the climatologist playbook from 2007. We heard this same sort of crap 10 years ago. I’m embarrassed for him.
A leading climatologist, Robert Kennedy Jr., predicted no more snow in DC in 2008. In Feb 2010, they set a new record for snow.
There seem to be no consequences for what leading climatologists say. With no consequences, they will say anything.
Didn’t Al Gore make a prediction/forecast on this subject as well that didn’t turn out to be true? But he made so many of them that he doesn’t remember.
Where I have lived most of my life in New Zealand in the North Island we have never had snow at Christmas but then again we have never had snow . The snow falls on the ranges in the winter around but does not stay long .From the top of my hill I can see the volcanic cones in the central North Island and Mount Taranaki covered in snow .Why do these people make such predictions and then when another colder climate cycle begins they will duck for cover .The reduction of snowfall around the world has been a continuous chant from warmists for the last 30 years .
We have our career climate scientists here also. In fact, we have been getting a plenty of propaganda from the media lately. We were seduced by the then EEC over 40 years ago, now whenever they say jump, we say, “how high!!”
Snow on Christmas day is and has always been, in my life time anyway, about 60 to 1 as we’d only get snow once or twice a year and it has to fall, I think half an ins, in Dublin airport on Christmas day. You could have 3″ some other part of the country, or 3″ snow in the airport from the previous day and no deal! So, it’s always been a stupid bet.
I grew up in the 60s when snow and frost was somewhat more common. Every few years we could skate on the canal. The 70s were less cold until about 79 when we had a very sharp frost one night and that was the last time I walked on Ice until recent years. The following year we had the biggest snow Iv’e ever seen. There were snow drifts beside the beach in Dublin bay.
For the next 30 years, we’d get snow from time to time, but my kids grew up never seeing ice they could walk on.
The cold winters returned in Oct 31st 2008 and the last heavy snow, fell March 31st 2011.
In January 2010 came the first ice that My now adult kids could walk on. We now live in the midlands where there’s lots of lakes. All frozen, 5 – 6″ thick.
The following November, the frost returned, steadily got colder. One day in mid Dec, the temp never got above -10 all day The ice on the lakes was thick enough to drive cars on. But, in this age of safety and fear few people would even skate on it.
Back to normal winters since, but I’m still hoping for a bit of warming!!
I’m wondering just who decided we should have cold months in winter? I hate that tradition!
Got to agree with you Randy – I as wondering when Winter became a tradition instead of a season too!
A model that does not prophesize the end of the world, but merely the end of white Christmases future. Progress. Positive progress, I think.
Some facts please. How often has each city in Ireland had a “white Christmas”?
According to the linked article below, the answer to that question is 17.
http://www.thejournal.ie/snow-ireland-facts-723323-Dec2012/
No. The answer is 42. Always. Ask Doug Adams.
I was in Tunis, London and Australia circa Feb-Mar2005.
Cold at 10C in Tunis; freezing cold and snow in London; nice and warm in Sydney & Cairns.
Warm is best.
Warmer is better.
I predict more or possibly less snow depending on the weather. This will happen sooner or possibly later, and it may have already happened.
Hmmm…
For global temps to warm 1C from current levels by 2050 would require a warming trend of around +0.3C/decade starting from…tomorrow….
That’s impossible because the AMO and PDO will both be in their respective 30-year cool cycles from around 2020 (global temps always fall when this happens), moreover, the weakest solar cycle since 1790 starts from 2021 and the one after that from 2032 will be the weakest since 1645 and the start of a 50~75 year Grand Solar Minimum event.
By 2050, it’s highly likely global temps will be below late 1970’s levels (the last time the PDO/AMO 30-yr cool cycles were winding down), combined with additional cooling effects from the Grand Solar Minimum event..
Samurai,
Where can I get charts of what you’re saying? Is that possible? Thx.
People won’t know what freezing their ass off is…unless they live in Chicago.
One of Bill Gate’s holding companies just bought 25,000 acres 50 miles west of Phoenix to build a futuristic city where real people will buy condos, rent apartments etc. It near Tonopah, Arizona off I-10.
It’ll get water from the Central Arizona Project canal from the Colorado River. It’ll have reliable 24/7 grid power to run the ACs from the PaloVerde Nuclear Plant. I’m sure they put in solar PV, but the hot summer nights means that’s just a virtue signaling sales gimmick.
They’ll need lots of both water and 24/7 electricity because it is hot as a MF out there in the summer. But apparently, the 2nd richest man in the world is not too concerned about CAGW or the Colorado River running out of water as alarmists claim will happen. Bill Gates is a pretty smart man and well connected to sound engineering teams who obviously understand alarmist climate change is a hoax.
I won’t miss it not snowing and I live in Atlanta, GA. Snow is over rated.
If the climate continues of its present course of delivering snow regularly then kids of the future will never get to know what an “end of snow” prediction even looks like.
Well, it’s the middle of November 2017. We’ve had our first snowfall in my kingdom. I have photos, Always do that. Settles idiot arguments. According to the Almanac, we’ll have snow the end of the month, then snow in December with clearing at that month’s end. Looks like a normal winter to me. Lookin’ forward to it.
Haven’t had snow in central Indiana but I ran into a wintery mix at the higher elevations along the PA Turnpike week before last. It’s looking like we may get a good snow before we have a chance to mulch most of the leaves this year. Wednesday and Thursday last week I was down in the vicinity of Macon, GA and used the heater in the truck sleeper both nights. Miserable cold rain almost all day Thursday.
Mr. Sweeney works in the Geography department of Maynooth University and like Mr. Mann likes to claim credit by association with the Nobel prose for Climate science. They are on a recruitment drive at the moment to attract people to their “climate science” course at the moment – target audience: middle class female SJW wannabes.
https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/people/john-sweeney
He is also the president of president of An Taisce which is the leading NIMBY organisation in Ireland which really won’t be happy until everyone lives in the countryside lives in lime washed cottages and doffs their caps to their urban betters as they pass by. In a country where agriculture particularly where grass fed dairy and beef farming is a large contributor this organisation is against cow farts.
http://web.archive.org/web/20050214233020/http://antaisce.org/campaigns/index.html?id=63
The Maynooth geography departments main claim to fame in recent years has been the promotion of socialism in the media by it’s members.
Conference: Local Resistance, Global Crisis: developing communities of solidarity and Left Politics for the 21st Century
https://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/news-events/conference-local-resistance-global-crisis-developing-communities-solidarity-and-left-politics-21st
As has been answered in the links in the comments above it is uncommon that snow falls in Ireland at sea level in December and is more likely that such events happen in January and February. They also don’t like to reference historical weather events committed to folk memory but concentrate on rain events that caused flooding – which is a problem because the natural flood plains (overflow) for rivers have been build on and the water has to go somewhere. . . . high rainfall is NOT an unusual event in Ireland historically.
The 1839 hurricane.
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/books/the-calm-before-the-big-wind-of-1839-was-particularly-eerie-1.3257684
The February 1947 severe weather event (lasted a month)
https://www.independent.ie/life/remembering-the-great-irish-blizzard-of-february-1947-34482677.html
Footage: Dublin 1954 Storm damage, flooding of North Strand, Fairview, East Wall…
https://getoutofthatgarden.wordpress.com/2014/05/16/footage-dublin-1954-storm-damage-flooding-of-north-strand-fairview-east-wall/
The Irish don’t care if they get less snow or if it’s 2C warmer in the winter. Hell, they’ll probably raise a pint or two to the possibility! Now, if you want to get an Irishman’s attention, try convincing them that whiskey production is seriously threatened….
In Sweden, there is no trend in snow cover at Christmas day morning.
Data at 13 locations , from north to south, from 1900 to 2000.
Only in swedish, sorry.
I think the guy picked Christmas because it almost never snows then anyway so was a safe bet!
We’ve had significant snow over winter in:
2002/3
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
2010/11
However the bulk of the snow in those winters fell in January or February, well after Christmas!!
Even in 2009/10 winter it starting snowing in late October and there was still snow covering the lawn in the following march. We had -20 in mid January. Bit despite that we had no snow on Christmas day, it was actually quite mild.
I can’t ever recall it snowing on Christmas day in my entire life, not even growing up in the 70’s. It always seems to be boringly mild!
Unless the seasons have shifted over time, I’m thinking the whole white Christmas thing was made up by the bookies to make lots of money 😉
And the climate scam was made up by Al Gore for the same reason.
Don’t know about Ireland but in the UK it used to be just one flake of snow (even if sleety) falling at one of the UKMO’s weather centres. They have gone now.
Useless as a metric for long term memory, where, lets face it it needs to be laying.
Hence zero memories here despite some stats.
One of the most amazing, sometimes charming, set of comments EVA. I almost fell off my breakfast chair laughing. Anecdote after anecdote after anecdote (mainly). I nominate the inverted Mercator projection as the very best comment but really it’s hard to choose. Christmas must be just around the corner.
The local ski hill (Limone) which normally doesn’t open until late December already has close to a metre of snow up top and 35cm at the bottom and os planning to open on Friday which I think is unprecedented, certainly in the 15 years we’ve been here.
Meanwhile this morning we woke up to this, 370m elevation behind Sanremo in NW Italy:
Where’s my link https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10156064962618296&set=a.70619053295.96489.675903295&type=3
`If I were a betting man…’? The good professor IS a betting man. He’s willing to bet fifty trillion of other people’s money on the output of unvalidated climate models. That’s a heck of a wager.
It must be the great Irish Whiskey.
There is a better chance of snow in Adak Alaska, USA. Adak shares the same latitude as London.
A heads up to people if we in the SE UK don’t get enough rain this winter there is a good chance of drought orders and water use restrictions coming in the spring. Some reservoirs are currently at a third of capacity.
James Bull
All the years I lived in southern Ireland, Waterford, I never saw snow. Cold and chilling drizzle and rain, sure. Infinitely more miserable than snow.
The Irish are notoriously stubborn, which leads to frequent instances of failure to learn from experience.
I lived in North Devon during the 1970’s…
One year – I think it was 1974 – my neighbour mowed his lawn on Christmas Day…
Mind you, I think that was the same winter that we had six foot snow drifts further down the lane…!
UK set for 2 months of HEAVY SNOW and BLIZZARDS: NOAA issues rare La Nina winter advisory.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/879066/UK-snow-weather-forecast-La-Nina-weather-warning-BBC-weather-Met-Office-forecast-winter
This paper displays the same headlines every year so extreme caution required. It may get it nearly right one year like a broken clock. While solar activity supports meridional jet stream and oceans support a colder winter here. The above can never be forecast unless in short notice as cold and dry usually sums up most of the UK.
Jaakkokateenkorva – your earlier post of a map showing the averaged CO2 dispersion globally in your discussion with Nick Stokes raises a troubling question. It is one I have asked before of alarmists but never get a satisfactory reply from them. We know that most of the world’s heavy industries and cars are in the northern hemisphere, yet the map clearly shows most of the carbon dioxide concentrations to be equatorial. That is more in line with where you would expect it to be if it is being “naturally” produced than where it should be originating if it is all our fault. And if it is still there because of our activities, how did it get transported to the equatorial zone when the Earth’s heat pump sends energy towards the poles?
Using the same exquisite logic about CFCs which are/have been generated in the northern hemisphere somehow ending up over the South Pole and gobbling up all the ozone.
Actually, Ireland is a major driver of global warming in its role as a tax haven service to global companies as an end around to higher EU tax rates. Emissions are greater due to them.
The future’s not what it used to be – Irish aphorism
“The prospect of Ireland waking up to a white Christmas is becoming more and more unlikely every year, according to a leading climatologist.
Prof John Sweeney said that Ireland can expect increasingly warmer winters due to global warming, resulting in less snowfall in the traditionally coldest months of the year.”
While the UK is not quite the same as Ireland, this statement is not really supported with facts, unless just one difference can mean to imply being significant. The 2010’s could have another two white Christmas yet, keeping the same average of 5 with the 1970’s and 1980’s.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/snow/snow-at-christmas
For the UK since the 1960’s white Christmas occurred at least somewhere during the following years. It can be cold enough to snow in any location in October, so one particular day in December has no problem with the correct weather pattern. The difference between average monthly temperature between October and December is much larger than any global warming occurring so far and more than twice realistically guessed in future.
The 2000’s showed less like the 1970’s and 1980’s and only a difference of one, but despite global warming the 1990’s matched the 1960’s at least in number.
1960’s – 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966 and 1968 (7)
1970’s – 1970, 1974, 1976, 1978 and 1979 (5)
1980’s – 1980, 1981, 1984, 1985, and 1986 (5)
1990’s – 1990, 1994, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1998 and 1999 (7)
2000’s – 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2009 (4)
2010’s – 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (4) so far this decade.
2020’s – (7) ?
There seems to be a pattern here with one decade after every two recording more white Christmas. Could the 2020’s bring a more frequent number back gain?
Confused by the hat tip which reads “bookies have just slashed the odds of an Irish White Christmas in Dublin, with experts predicting one of the coldest winters ever.”
Does that mean they now think it is less likely to have a White Christmas despite predictions of a cold winter? That seems counter-intuitive. (That situation actually happens in the Lake Erie snowbelt because a cold-enough winter freezes over the lake, leading to a drop in precipitation. In other words, really really cold but now dry. But that scenario wouldn’t seem to ever apply to the island of Ireland.)
Or am I misinterpreting what they mean by “slashed the odds”. Does that statement somehow mean that the odds against it have gone down rather than meaning that the odds of it have gone down?
Epilogue
In Thailand – I don’t want to complain but it is 30C and we have to put ice in our beer to keep it cold.
Walking on the beach in the sun, thinking of the significant solar influence on climate and the (regrettably) negligible impact of increasing atm. CO2 on climate.
Summary:
Warm is good. Warmer is better. CO2 is good. More CO2 is better. End of story.
I live in Cork City, Ireland. The temperature last night was -1C. The night before -2. Need I say more?
First snow in November in Cork (southern coastal area) in my lifetime (40 plus years) just occurred, 24/11/2017.