With the natural disasters of hurricanes Harvey and Irma, we have once again seen the unlimited capacity of politicians and their funding-hungry toadies (climate scientists), and of mainstream media and business persons……to use the misfortunes of others to promote political agendas, and to sell advertising space and product.
There’s no reason for me to cite examples. They’re everywhere. Be my guest and add some to the comments.
Still on holiday.
Ciao!
Bob
Funniest thing I’ve seen in a while.
Good to hear from you, Bob. Still calling them like they are.
Very clever, if totally wack from a reality perspective.
If you haven’t read Bob Tisdale’s books nor followed his blog, you ain’t sh!t.
He’s baaaaack! https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/
+1
+1²
=1
1³!
still =1
Depends on the standard deviation and skew of your 1.
1³ is not =1 for large values of 1
For ordinary pre-AGW values of 1,
1³= 1!
Which is always good to keep in mind.
The ! gives the CAGW hype factor, Crispin.
Sqrt(-1)
Is that in your imagination, Ray?
Sorry, Ray. Posted before I thought about your post. The + in the given equation I interpreted as changing the sign of the -1. But it is an imaginary number!
So, if you have, you are? ;>)
Educated, Dan, educated.
So get with the program and read some of his free books and past blog posts, especially his critiques of Karl’s errors in adjusting SSTs with Night Marine Air temperatures. His ENSO explanations are top-notch. https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2016/05/23/three-free-ebooks-on-global-warming-and-climate-change/
Be a player and contribute to his tip jar; he puts in mega work on his data analyses and presentations. No oil company dollars for him.
I’ve never met him, but Bob Tisdale is the man!
+i^2
=1
Imagine after a dozen years of record setting way above average hurricane landfalls there came a normal year and climate scientists rejoiced that global warming had ceased. People would dismiss them as charlatans.
Imagine after a dozen years of record setting way below average hurricane landfalls there came a normal year and climate scientists rejoiced that global warming was the cause. People would embrace them as prophets.
Irma is the strongest hurricane in history to hit US land based on being on the west side of a penninsula, in the continental U.S., with the most amount of people evacuated, in the second week of September, with 10 construction cranes in operation within the cone, AND record of records, this hurrican toppled a construction crane for the first time EVA! Based on cranes taller than 20 feet.
That oughta do ya. A record event.
And to think, I did not believe in man-made CO2 causing global warming. But with your post …
🙂
The “crane” gamble. What does it cost to take it down, vs have it destroyed and be sued for damages that maybe the insurance companies resolve with tax payer bail out dollars.
It takes several weeks to take down one of those cranes. Taking them down just wasn’t an option.
@MarkW….everybody knows that. lol
Its got more records than there are records. Kinda like voting!
Yes, it’s set a record for records.
But usually in Chicago.
It was really really yuge!
Well, Irma is as bad as Wilma where we survived a near direct hit but from the west after crossing the peninsula. We are now ‘enjoying’ the inner rain bands from Irma now ~110 miles away. Cat 2 gusts for sure based on hurricane glass ‘bubbles’. Technological bubble metric explanation of at Judith Curry in comments. Right now 80 % bubbles, wind very audible at multiple frequencies. Like a freight train going by in Fort Lauderdale, about 110 miles from the Naples eyewall. We will get relief after winds turn S to SSW as eye passes our latitude.
Nature built a 20+ foot crane, so, yeah, that crane coming down was a “Man-made disaster”.
(Sand cranes etc. only have 2 feet.)
DAMN!
“Nature NEVERbuilt a 20+ foot crane..”
(They forgive “Mann et al” for being so wrong. Please forgive me.8-)
Funny. You are nuanced.
Make that two(2) cranes at least.
To be a true record we will have to know the names of the crane operators.
Never in the field of human marketing
Has so much excrement
Been talked by so many
About so little
Te Weather Channel, in its never-ending attempt to exagerate doom and thereby gain interested viewers, is now claiming that this is the first time the U.S. has experienced two Cat 4 hurricanes in the same season. Well, if Irma was a cat 4 at landfall, she made it by the skin of her teeth – by 1 MPH and landfall, I guess they are claiming Key West as the land – that’s more like an island. And as I recall Hurricane Harvey was a Cat 4 for , Oh, about 45 seconds after it made landfall.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html
SAYS IT IS FALSE, IN 1915 2 Cat4
TX was hit by two cat 4 hurricanes (plus two smaller ones – 4 total) in 1886. So…as you might expect…they are talking out of their holes.
Both of those events do not count as they were ground based and damage based analysis, verses over hyped glorified Cat 2 events.
The last time US experienced two hurricanes > Cat 3 in the same season, were in 1979, a Cat 5 (David) and Cat 4 (Frederic) both at landfall.
Sorry there was a later occurrence that I had missed.
In 2008 two hurricanes > Cat 3 in the same season, Cat 4 (Gustav) and Cat 4 (Ike) .
Only the year before (2007) there were two Cat 5 storms in the same season that hit below Mexico, Dean and Felix.
Hurricanes huh. Just like buses. You wait 12 years then 4 come along at once. If only some climate expert had predicted this.
but more seriously God bless America and I hope you all keep safe.
Which of the 4 buses did you ride? Anyway an average of 1 bus every 3 years doesn’t sound like good service. 😉
In rural England once every three years is a luxury. You are more likely to see the Christmas Coca Cola truck 🙂
The Weather Channel and other cable wonks are “reporting” standing out in what appears to be barely tropical-storm force winds. You can’t waltz around chatting in anything much above 60, and they’re doing exactly that. Plus, photos of the “devastation” seem so far to consist of a few uprooted palm trees “newly planted,” at that, a few not-too-deep flooded roads in Miami, and a house demolished by one tornado.
Hmmm . . .
You gotta love it when some reporter, standing on the beach…tells you you’re all going to die if you haven’t left already…and they have him dressed like some rodeo clown
Aren’T the condemned allowed a final request? “Mom I never wanted to work in a superficial circus of pretend that is a weather channel. I always wanted to be a cowboy.”
The even had Jim Catorri wearing a flack jacket and a combat helmet today!
But Latitude …since rodeo clowns are useful…they are trying to at least LOOK useful ..
😉
I’ll say it again, The Weather Channel seems to be trying to keep it factual.
I can just imagine some of the stupid things I’d say after living in motel rooms, suffering sleep deprivation and chasing the eye of a hurricane.
They are working 24/7.
Give them a break ??
It will probably take at least several years to sort out just how much hype the NOAA used in rating the wind speed of Harvey and Irma, and how they really compare to earlier hurricanes. Another thing that might become an issue is the curious quiet in Pacific typhoons now.
I’m firmly convinced they can’t predict sh1t….and they know it
…that’s why they evacuated half the state…they knew they didn’t know where it was going
and if climate models are half as bad as hurricane models…..they couldn’t even predict when the front was coming down to turn it
I have to disagree.
After the fact, Mann predicted that Man caused Harvey to hang out over Houston. He even mentioned weather patterns! (Which he got backwards)
He can’t even get the present right. Trust him for the past or the future?
(I said I disagreed. Maybe I don’t.8-)
The climate scientists have the temperature-hurricane relationship exactly backwards. See, the increased temperature actually discourages hurricane formation, thus the 14-year drought of major hurricanes landfalling on the US.
Finally, natural variation allows two powerful hurricanes to form this season and impact on Texas and Florida. The truth of the matter is, instead of the hurricanes being WORSE than they would have been without the warming (Mann’s claim), the increased temps PREVENTED the hurricanes from being as bad as they would have been before. Mann et al are too hyped on warming=bad to understand that — at least as far as hurricanes go — warming=good.
As stupid hypotheses go, at least this one matches the facts. Kinda.
“The climate scientists have the temperature-hurricane relationship exactly backwards. See, the increased temperature actually discourages hurricane formation, thus the 14-year drought of major hurricanes landfalling on the US.”
James–I wonder if this pick up in strong storms is a reflection of cooling temperatures???
It won’t take years. I predicted that it would not be the case, and I saw my prediction materialize in real time.
It is already over.
They are now simply misleading us, and being inaccurate. If I can figure this out, so can they.
Does anybody know what Irma’s wind speed was when it “made landfall” in the Florida Keys? I know in 2012, they changed the scale so that 130 mph now qualifies as a Category 4. Before 2012, 131 mph was the minimum for Cat 4.
Of course, they did not change the ratings on the older hurricanes, so over time it will appear that we will have had stronger storms after 2012.
Do we always count it as “U.S. Landfall” when it hits an island?
Key West is connected to the US mainland via a solid highway. So I’ll give ’em the benefit of the doubt.
The Daily Beast, Michael Daly: “The playground of big-shot climate-change deniers becomes subject to a hurricane evacuation order as of 5 p.m. Friday.” …”Coulter responded to that earlier calamity with her usual discerning insight, giving a whole other meaning to being all wet. “I don’t believe Hurricane Harvey is God’s punishment for Houston electing a lesbian mayor,” she tweeted. “But that is more credible than ‘climate change.’”
And the mud just keeps flowing.
Funny.
Glad to see you again Bob!
Here is a site that you can see quasi real-time weather station data. There are probably better ways to do this but FWIW here you go. You will need to establish an account.
just looking around I don’t see much over 80mph gusts, and most of the stations are in the 50-60 range
http://mesowest.utah.edu
Thank you.
Vero Beach reports 79 mph gust, oddly enough the winds seem to be stronger on the east coast than near the eyewall.
Noticed that.
I think ( perhaps) a product of the collapsing eye, the energy had to go somewhere so perhaps it expanded out like a figure skater throwing his arms out.
Disclaimer: My post below in no way minimizes the seriousness of any bad situation anybody might be experiencing – it’s open thread so I thought this might be interesting from a high wind experience.
Near where I live (Inyokern, CA) there is a meteorologic anomaly called “Five Mile”. The station is at an elevation of 4150′ or so, on the east slope of the Sierra Nevada which at that point has a crest elevation of about 9,000′. This station is probably the windiest low elevation station in California. This whole east slope area is windy but wind gusts at Five Mile can be twice what nearby stations are reporting. It’s fairly common to see +75 mph there, and once in a while 90+. I’ve been there when gusting over 80 mph – its a 30 minute drive and I’m foolish enough to like high winds. You have to be very careful to orient the vehicle to allow you to open the door to get in or out. The worst would be having the door ripped from your grasp and literally torn off the car, this kind of door damage is common out here. The last time I was there it was blizzard conditions and the little hike from where I parked to the station was pretty epic winter mountaineering like. I have this silly idea that I can conduct some tethered wing suit flying here. I have been in 60-70 mph conditions mountaineering and it’s very difficult to keep your feet – it has crossed my mind that if I jumped into the air I might not come down for a while.
Here is the Five Mile station page url. Some other really windy places are Mammoth Mountain (+11,000) and White Mountain (+14,000). Any place on the Sierra Crest can exceed 120 mph in a winter system.
http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=FMRC1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL
I want video!!!!!!!!
Kite Sailing! Mount a remote control winch to your truck, let out 100′ of cable down wind, and jump!
As long as it doesn’t stop blowing, it would be epic!
Jim Cantore is running around down near Ft. Meyers in full military body armor!
..and FOX has some reporter in Naples, standing out in the middle of the street…in what’s supposed to be 115 mph winds
Folks, I am in the middle of the second strongest rain/wind band we will ever see from Irma. Tornado warnings rampant, no surprise, and Cat 2 gusts based on our hurricane door gurgle index. I think he is appopriately armored, as there is Cat 2 gust stuff going on right now here in Fort Lauderdale and we are 110 miles west of Naples! Save it til you been there and done that. We have and still are. Blogging is cheap. Science and observational truth is not.
Let me add some observational facts. Our Atlantic coast building in Fort Lauderdale is post Andrew code. 27 stories post Andrew, poured concrete plus steel rebar reinforcement down to bedrock 80 feet below the beach. Security shut down our elevators about 0900 today, and the current sway at 1700 on our 12th of 26 floors dining table chandler is ~ 4 inches roughly circular. In steel plus concrete! Just measured.
We are currently experiencing Cat 2 wind gusts, which most of you cannot imagine. So come live through one here in our guest bedroom, then blog crap. Think a thunderous freight train coming through but never leaving your BR. Some of you discredit skeptics. Learn before you opine. Please.
Keep your head down. My sister lives in Naples, my older brother in Tampa and most of my family is in the Palatka area. Thankfully, my sister is staying with friends in Orlando. I’ve been watching the Weather Underground webcams over the past couple of days… Irma is really bad.
This is the closest webcam to my sister’s condo…
That’s about 10′ ASL. Most of Naples is <5' ASL. 10-15' of storm surge would be devastating… in addition to the winds.
I tried to contact my sister a bit east of Tampa. Voice mail. My message was basically not to call back till Irma has passed.
I’ve got skin in the game.
Why is he even out in “the middle” of Irma in combat gear in front of a camera that is working just fine?
Hype.
PS Tropical Storm Delia is where I learned that the old VW Bug really did float.
PPS What’s “the cause”? Nature does these things.
What’s the hype that Man somehow caused it? Jim Cantore is running around down near Ft. Meyers in full military body armor!
Rud,
I lived through Florida TS and hurricanes in the 1990’s. In 1995 it was Hurricanes Erin and Opal, 2 months apart over my house, convinced me of the error of my ways in choosing to live in their path, 1/4 mile from the intracoastal waterway at 12′ msl.
You’re a smart man. You knew the risks. Yet You purposefully chose to live there. Enjoy the consquences on your own dime.
Twelfth floor will be about 150 feet up. If You have Cat 2 gusts there that probably means Cat 1 gusts at 10 meters.
Here’s Ristvan’s latest (as of now) comment on Climate Etc.
https://judithcurry.com/2017/09/08/hurricane-irma-eyes-florida/#comment-858000
Doesn’t jive with station data: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=pvgf1
Your experience on the 12th floor of a high rise is not exactly representative of what’s going on closer to the ground.
Just realized the Ft. Lauderdale station stopped reporting around 1PM for no evident reason. Here is Miami and Lake Worth Pier to get an idea of what that side of Florida was/is actually experiencing
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=vakf1
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=lkwf1
Winds are less in Naples now. Really.
See link a few posts above.
And no, you are not in sustained 80 mph winds per any ground based readings.
Ristvan, Please explain these consistent low readings…
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?id=8725110&timezone=LST&units=standard
…and the lack of damage
…and the storm surge being 1/2 or less then the low estimate in the keys and here in Naples where it was 4.2 feet vs 10 to 15 feet predicted.
Damages look NOTHING like Camile or Andrew or Labor day hurricane.
…and this…
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/Current.aspx?location=USFL0372
I watched Cantori stand in the worst of it. A pile of palm frawns behind him never blew away!
The continues read out on the screen showed a peak gust of 84 mph.
These are facts Ristvan. The eye collapsed and the energy dispersed out. Your winds at the time on the surface were not sustained hurricane force winds, but were equal to what was left of the eye.
My daughters live near Tampa. They are all fine.
When I was growing up a local weatherman, long since retired, would give some perspective if there was a record or near record to report. In such a case he would tell you that it was just as hot in 1932 or the former record for this date and area was in 1972 and it was tied in 1992 and so forth. That was honest reporting and he was not misinforming by omission. In most cases to leave the impression that a given weather event is unprecedented is to misinform. If it is unprecedented, then it is still incumbent to provide perspective. By how much is it unprecedented? In the case of hurricanes people should know that they are natural events that have been going on for a very long time.
Part of the problem is that climate trends, patterns, and repeatable events, usually outstrip people’s life spans and in many cases their memory. Many of today’s population were not yet born during Floyd and many may have been in diapers during Katrina. Even people who are older will say something like:” I don’t recall it being this hot before!” People who grew up in the 30’s and 40’s are mostly gone now, and many older people now grew up during a colder period of the post WW2 era.
People who know better have a responsibility to correctly inform.
You get the same honest reporting today. Today’s heat is unprecedented! 1932 is long forgotten. The task for modern schools is to educate illiterate voters with limited mental capabilities.
If you are hit by anything that is travelling at 100mph even salt spray and rain…welll.. you will lose interest in everything except the pain that includes speaking into a microphone. Try heading down the highway on a motorbike at 100ph lift your visor just as you hit a rainstorm. Even on the deck of a boat in a small gale the salt spray can feel like needles entering your face,
Check out the Great Lakes water temps – https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/ .
In 2014, the GL were 92.5% covered with ice, it dropped to 88.8% in 2015 and was only 33.8% in 2016. On that GL page, the temps for 2017 are compared to 2016, 2015. I’ve been looking at the page for the last few weeks and the 2017 temps for all the five lakes are already lower than in the other years.So, will there be lots of ice on the Great Lakes this year? It will be interesting to see….
Been rather cold here in Pontiac Michigan this summer and August, but quite hot in Washington state, go figure!
It’s been cooler here in Oklahoma City – think we only had 6 days over 100 degrees this summer. Quite a change from a few years ago when I lost count when it was >60 days. We’re enjoying it.
In Sweden summer temperatures this year never topped 85 F. But it isn’t unprecedented, 1862 was even colder.
I had some spare time and I read some of the unibomber’s manifesto, interesting how he talks about “the psychology of modern leftism”,
http://cyber.eserver.org/unabom.txt
Great to have you back Bob – you have been missed!
Obviously the only way to demonstrate that humans are not causing climate disaster is for hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and forest fires to end entirely and for all time. The 28,000 people killed in the great hurricanes of 1780 (one in June, three in October) have apparently been forgotten.
FOX news even blew it. 2 Cat4 land falls in the same year? How about 1915, New Orleans, and Galveston. Both Cat 4. This stuff is not that hard to find. Don’t bother to fact check guys, just grab a headline. There’s probably another year as well.
FOX news has been an embarrassment to itself all day.
Shep Smith is talking 120 MPH winds at a location where a NOAA buoy is showing 50kts.
He is truly clueless in matters of meteorology. And the FOX weather bimbo is only trying to keep ratings up. Why not have a meteorologist like a Joe Bastardi who is not paid to get ratings, but to provide useful insight to conditions on instead. Useful insight saves lives. Hype only saves FOX news.
FOX tried to exaggerate the storm surge and had no information to give. Not even actual high of the street they had in focus at Naples in the corner 5th and Park street. They said it is five foot above sea level.
I guess it is 10-15 feet , using Googles street view.
Someone who has the answer?
If Mar a Lago had been on west coast of Florida Irma would’ve been “aiming” for it and the American computer models (not the European one) would’ve reflected that. Tongue in cheek…kinda.
I’m in Orlando, and we’re still just getting the rain and some light winds.
…and an eight foot branch broke off of one of my neighbors’ trees already.
Not looking forward to the actual tropical-storm (and maybe light hurricane) winds tonight. Power’s going out for a day or so, at least – lots of old, sickly live oaks in the neighborhood right next to power lines. I’m just glad my landlord cut down the sixty-footer next to my duplex (not to mention the fifty-foot pine tree right next to my bedroom).
First time ever, 2 Cat 4 hurricanes make US landfall in same season. Fortune, and Weather Underground now regurgitating the same fake news. Ref. The hurricane tracker app. How can you ask $3.99 for an app that is wrong?Curious to see how long it takes for NYT, and Wash. Post to pick up on this huge factoid. I’m no Trump fan, but I know what he would say…”SAD”
CO2 iwas, what 80 in 1915.
Firing up the popcorn popper, and prayers for the suffering in FL, TX.
The main stream media hosting talking heads who claim Irma and Harvey support the Climate Change hypothesis was directly predicted by Rush Limbaugh.
Now the MSM is doing everything it can to prove Limbaugh had them pegged.
While their not blaming the hurricane on Co2 just yet it’s starting to get more like a rant than news .
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-11/gas-not-coal-the-fix-to-australias-soaring-electricity-prices/8890818
Could someone please tell me how it is that temperature is somehow a proxy for climate? It make me think of measuring climate by air pressure, or moisture content or airspeed or,,, or,,, or,, If I measured an aircraft’s performance by altitude, or automobiles by only the horsepower rating..I would be branded a fool.
Maybe I am,,, probably I am, hmmm.
All this temperature graph stuff is much to do about absolutely nothing. 20 C in a desert is much different than 20C in a rain forest.
Note to statistics and psychology researchers. For future dissertation:
“An analysis of the Percentage of Florida Residents that Evacuated Hurricane Irma Based Solely on the False Statistical Premise that ‘We are due for one.'”
Interesting question for future public safety announcements when crafting their message and for marketers trying to sell hurricane related products.
Great to see you back on WUWT, Bob!
There will be a lot of ‘splaining to do after this saga is over.
The Clintons said that everyone to paint their roof white a few years ago…
Still waiting for them to do it but here is the latest:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-10/clinton-private-rooftop-garden-obscene-violation-charity-law-principles
https://www.google.com/amp/s/wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/18/clintons-solution-for-the-jobs-crisis-painters/amp/
“Disasters like Harvey show need for more efficient cars” [Ron Freund, chair of Electric Auto Association.
http://www.eastbaytimes.com/2017/09/09/opinion-climate-change-disaster-like-harvey-needs-smart-response/
Imagine evacuating Houston in an electric car. You drive for 200 miles, stop for 30 minutes to recharge – that’s if you are the only one. More likely there would be ten cars ahead of you, that’s a five hour wait before your turn.
Today’s electric car is not quite there. It is the last thing you want to drive in a disaster. I find this kind of advocacy disgusting and offensive. Does Ron really take me for an idiot?
So what happens when electric cars get stuck in 3 or feet of water?
Boom?
Spent enough time in the USN to know nothing is waterproof (other then subs).
Including USS Thresher?
The Thresher was waterproof, until it wasn’t.
This is the day alarmist have dreamt of for 30 years. SICK !!
And you read accounts of this & they clearly can give a flying f*ck about the people affected , have no empathy what so ever (but they are supposed to be the “sensitive” ones). Bullsh*t! They only care about pushing their elitist socialist agenda and putting money in their pockets in the ultimate passive aggressive move of all times. The media has zero ability to publish anything that isn’t op-ed. You have reporters who flunked 3rd grade science acting as if they know exactly why all this happened … and they sure that it is your fault and it is not their fault because they are righteous and you are not.
Society pretends to be so sophisticated but truth be told, we be are only a hair above witch trials and superstition from 100’s of years ago.
In less than 2 weeks it will be a year since Colorado University’s Sea Level Group updated their web page:
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
I expect that when they finally publish the next release that they will “find” the acceleration in sea level rise that they’ve been hoping and praying for over the last decade or so.
CBS 60 Minutes ran a segment tonight on the Arctic that started off with:
and contued a little bit later with:
Doesn’t it have to be above zero for ice to melt?
How stupid do they think we all are?
Here’s the link:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-arctic-frontier-lesley-stahl-2/
Is Lesley Stahl still around ?
Remember when she did her first interview. It was with Moses.
EW3 – was that the one in which Moses said: “I talked him down to ten, but unfortunately adultery is still in?”
Uh, that’s +32 degrees F for freezing. Mind in the Celsius cloud, Steve.
Minus 6 degrees F is freaking cold! My rule was we stopped mushing dogs at minus 20.
It would be wonderful if science would use Kelvin all the time for everything. And Uh yes, I got caught up in the Fahrenheit Celsius Centigrade mess.
So thanks, I guess, for pointing out my screw-up.
At least I know someone read my comment.
Florida Wind Speed Map:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/Current.aspx?location=USFL0372
…and this…
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/Current.aspx?location=USFL0372
Yep – I sure did miss your earlier comment/link.
Both Harvey and Irma made landfall at 130 mph. The rating system was changed in 2012. 130mph used to be considered Cat 3. Now it is Cat 4. But the change doesn’t affect old ratings. So we are comparing apples to oranges. These are both Cat 3 storm by historical standards. The change helps hype climate hysteria, though. If not for the change, there could be no hype that two Cat 4s hit in one year.
Who cares? Random weather, in any analysis. The climate is the same as it has been for at least a Century. A little warmer, a little colder is not climate.
Irma, and what’s left of Irma, will now just become the I-75 low pressure system. It’ll meander up I-75 all the way to Atlanta, then Chattanooga, Nashville, turn right and stay on I-75 all the way to Cincinnati. Dumping rain all along the way.
What are the chances of Joel finishing it’s predicted wrap around and then continuing west right into West Palm Beach?
zero
So, Key West is still there. The Hemingway museum did not lose a single six-toed cat and the West Coast storm surge seems to be about 1/3 to 1/6 predicted.
Highway 1 looks intact. What is called utter devastation in Naples is a drone shot of a mobile home park with one unit destroyed, a gas station with an awning blown off, and some buildings destroyed at the airport.
The East Coast storm surge appears worse. Serious flooding in Miami. Some cranes and a building or two collapsed. As far as we’ve seen.
Florida’s going to bounce back from this very rapidly. I’m guessing far less damage than Harvey.
What we ought to have is a prediction market that allows bets on hurricane outcomes. Too bad Intrade is gone.
So there will be less compliance the next time they cry wolf—and, mayhap, there IS a wolf.
People with foresight take this into account. Not so alarmists and sensationalists.
Charles, how about a new thread on Irma’s underperformance?
I was proposing that to Anthony earlier as I’m not really qualified to write it.
But to be clear, I don’t think precautions or warnings were unwarranted. I’ve spent the last five days helping a friend who lives near Myrtle Beach prepare to head inland in a convoy of 7 cats, 3 dogs, an elderly man with dementia, a teenager, and 5 other adults. As her evacuation became unnecessary as forecasts changed there was no regret. There is nothing wrong for planning for worse case scenarios. A storm track 50 to 100 miles west and it could have been a complete different story for the Florida west coast. But by coming on shore and tracking inland it diminished quickly.
Mostly what bothers me is the hype at inappropriate times.
“In Naples the surge was 8 feet in 90 minutes.” They don’t mention it started off at a negative 4 feet.
But just watching the reporter broadcast from the eyewall in Naples with all the buildings around him undamaged, the trees upright, and the reporter being able to stand in the wind, was my first clue that this wasn’t nearly as bad as feared. Yeah, the wind gusts at Naples airport were real and did damage, but this WAS the landfall, and apparently Irma diminished in strength rapidly.
Then the Naples drone footage of what appeared to be a trailer park with floods in the street but not even reaching any of the units made me wonder about the level of storm surge.
The story of Irma is not the hurricane’s underperformance.
The story is the underperformance in forecasting skill of both track and intensity by NOAA and the NHC most especially their GFS model.
Here is a primer that has good data from last Friday.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/us-forecast-models-have-been-pretty-terrible-during-hurricane-irma/
From the article, Joel, I conclude NOAA has been neglecting its mandate, probably in favor of the sexy climate change meme.
OK, so hurricane forecasting models suck, but the GCMs can tell us precisely what the WX will be in AD 2100.
Right!
Charles, that is what I see thus far.
I would greatly appreciate a good post on this.
We have Cantori on the North eye wall while the W.C. is reporting strong Cat 3 with strong CAT 4 level gusts. He is standing with no real struggle and a pile of broken off palm frounds behind him, laying in the parking lot for hours, not blowing away in the wind. The upper box of the picture shows constantly changing wind speeds and gusts. The maximum was, as I recall, 64 mph sustained, 84 mph gust, on the friggin north eye wall.
As you said, the surge on the entire west coast was about 1/2 of the predicted MINIMUM. The surge, the damage, and the ground based readings indicate a CAT 1 or maybe two.
I am tired of Ristvan, ( whom I admire) saying these claims give skeptics a bad name. It is simple. Show me damage and ground based wind speed readings consistent with CAT 4 and CAT 3 hurricanes and I will stop questioning.
I should add, show me damage with Irma ( not tornado damage) consistent with any other CAT 4 Landfall hurricane, ( besides Harvey) and that with appropriate ground based wind, and I will not question.
Finally, a good estimate quantifying past hurricanes likely under estimation due to lack of ability and resources that are now available, would be great!
The past ACE needs to be adjusted up.
I wonder if Rud is getting any sleep tonight?
He obviously chose not to evacuate… if he posted that fact, I must have missed it.
He hasn’t posted on Judy’s site in many hours.
“So, Key West is still there. The Hemingway museum did not lose a single six-toed cat and the West Coast storm surge seems to be about 1/3 to 1/6 predicted.”
I just read that the worst of the storm surge there is yet to come.
That makes no sense, although it is currently rising in Fort Myers and Clearwater. I’m keeping my eye on those two for a friend.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/view.html?name=IRMA
Charles, this is also a good link for any states current wind speed and top gusts.
Ristivan was in an area of the strongest bands, and as the eye collapsed, (Cantori calling it a dirty eye) these bands became a bit stronger, like the energy expanded out in a last gasp, and the east coast where Ristavan lives had stronger winds then the former eye. Weird, but I watched it.
However the ground readings on the strong east coast bands were not hurricane force sustained.
http://mesowest.utah.edu/
Here is the link.
On the West coast of Florida there will be onshore winds south of the eye so the peak storm surge will occur after the eye has passed. On the east coast it will come before the center has passed.
Yes, but not 12 hours later.
Charles, try my link just above now. Select Florida. Select wind speed or gusts. Click on any station on the map.
Get a time graphic showing both speed and top gusts for that station.
Nothing in Florida now above tropical storm.
Your link shows Clearwater at 30 mph, mine shows 50 mph. This is why neither one of us is really qualified to write this up.
Damage estimates have already dropped 75% from earlier predictions.
Thanks Charles and I agree. Yet I will ask questions and wish for a good write up. I can see different parts of a county having disparate micro cells giving 20 mph variance. Which brings up the thought of modern instruments catching peaks missed in the past.
The link I gave showed a time graphic, a recording of that spot over several hours, and such peaks are not uncommon.
Also I agree that it is good to prepare for the worst, hope for the best, yet the ” experts” could use a dose of humility and the news broadcasters were absurdly trying to talk up the tempest.
I was watching one guy on the W.C. drive down a street in Miami, the leaves on the trees were barely moving, the puddles had no ripples, all the street debris were not moving; I switched to MSNBC and they were showing a map with the entire width of Florida including Miami under hurricane conditions. Fake news indeed.
Then why have the tide gauge readings all subsided after peaking.?
What I read is that winds will come in the reverse direction and push water higher, or there will be a natural rebound effect. (Maybe I misinterpreted what I read, or it was outdated. Let’s hope so.)
The other side of the storm passed hours ago. That was the storm surge.
Indeed, that was the 4 feet BELOW sans storm tide expectation, followed by 4 feet above. A 4.2 foot surge in Naples.
A change in some region’s seasonal weather conditions cannot be CAUSED by climate change. Local conditions, for the time of year, for some particular region, over an extended period (30 years) CONSTITUTES climate. My height is not caused by the distance of my head from the ground.
This point cannot be hammered on too often.
So I’m guessing the mayor of Miami Beach Philip Levine calling Irma a “nuclear hurricane” was unwise. Many who evacuated this time won’t next time. Perhaps it is time to re-think the whole mass evacuation thing anyway. May cause more harm than good.
Let’s hope Turnbull ignores all she says.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/grandmother-plant-exun-climate-chief-christiana-figueres-has-advice-for-pm-20170910-gyerob.html
I am sure most Australians are unaware of how anti-human she is.
Having spent all day yesterday sorting and loading three 45foot box trailers of relief supplies(and seeing parts of a truly horrendous Stillerz game) I can honestly say I am tired of shysters of all kinds. And listening to radio this morning the “news” is still talking about Irma destroying,currently, at this moment, FLA when Irma is currently,at this moment, on top of Georgia and South Carolina. These morons, with billions of dollars of technology at their disposal can’t even keep up with current events.
Between the eclipse and hurricanes, I haven’t had a chance to pay attention to upcoming Arctic sea ice minimum at https://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
The NSIDC may be wishing they ran their graph down to zero:
Low, but far from a record low.
How’s the NW Passage doing this season?
Yesterday, 2017 was tied with 2008, while higher than 2007, 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2016. It could end up higher than 2008 and 2010, too.
The inconvenient truth is that Arctic sea ice extent has been growing since 2012. Five years in a row without a new low record is unprecedented since 1979!
Griff has preserved his unprecedented record of always being wrong.
According to JAXA we’ve already passed the minimum for this year.
I see the pope has gone on the blame game again
Pope Francis is a true socialist through and through. You should not expect any different behavior.
God is telling the Marxist goon to STFU by crashing the popemobile into his ignorant Commie noggin. Hope it knocks some sense into the fat-mouthed fool.
IMO Trump did the right thing in overturning Obama’s unconstitutional DACA EO. Presidents are supposed to enforce laws, not write them. Congress will probably enact something similar to DACA. Under the Constitution, that’s its role, not the executive branch.
Also watch for the talking heads on TV to use the term “Florida dodged a bullet with Irma,” or similar construct.
The counter is that “No, the bullet called Irma made landfall on a FL city (Naples) and then drove straight-up the center of the state to Lake City.”
That the damage and severity of winds and water were far below expectations means the human forecasts and expectations were grossly off. The state didn’t dodge anything with Irma.
http://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/2017/09/08/publix-supermarket-selling-hurricane-irma-themed-cakes-and-twitter-responds.html
It isn’t Mann & Co. politicizing climate change, it’s all those damn climate change deniers! http://www.latimes.com/opinion/topoftheticket/la-na-tt-looming-disasters-20170910-story.html
Repent and be saved! Or else risk going to hell! http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/852663/Pope-Francis-Hurricane-Irma-climate-change-deniers-latest-news
People who wouldn’t believe the Pope on anything he said about their immortal souls somehow find him infallible when discussion immigration or climate change.
When people say stuff like, “Climate change made this hurricane/tornado/flood/event more likely”, I rarely if ever get any sense of HOW MUCH more likely it would be. I try to read the abstracts and the papers if they are not paywalled, but does anyone have a ballpark for this? Personally I think it’s in the small single digits but I wanted to see what other people’s impressions are.
Bob,
According to Brenden Moses, a researcher at the National Hurricane Center, of all Category 5 landfalls on record in the Atlantic since 1851, one-quarter have occurred this season. So where is your scientific argument about why this happened? Oh that’s right, you’re not a scientist so you can’t answer that.
Dennis this is a stupid answer. We have good data on all hurricanes prior to satellites, NOT.
And scientist isn’t a title, it’s a vocation.
Dennis this is a stupid answer. We have good data on all hurricanes prior to satellites, NOT.
And scientist isn’t a title, it’s a vocation.
Bob has no real title, at least he has never provided even a general summary of what his working background is. Why is he not proud to display his credentials or who he worked for? He only had a pseudo-science blog site that he uses to sell his wares to all of his gullible followers, asks them for donations and pushes the sales of his books that are not based on any real science. So yes, I have every right to question his credibility on the subject he tries to proclaim he is some sort of expert on.