This is one of those posts I wish I didn’t have to make. Dr. Ryan Maue, hurricane expert and friend of WUWT has advised us that the worst case scenario is going to happen for Florida:
No longer any spread or uncertainty about landfall of Hurricane
#Irma … this is happening for sure, unfortunately.
He’s referring to this collection of forecast model paths:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) concurs:
The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore says:
5pm track from from NHC paints a grim picture for the Keys and southwest Florida. NHC brings #Irma to Cat 5 160 mph before hitting the Keys. pic.twitter.com/aZAu24xQCR
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) September 8, 2017
From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/082055.shtml
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 76.5 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely to continue during the next day or two, and Irma is expected to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable…8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key…5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva…5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay…3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line…3 to 6 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Southeastern and central Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas…5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring in portions of the southeastern and Central Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or early Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in central and north Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday night:
Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Turks and Caicos…additional 1 to 3 inches.
Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Southern Cuba…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Jamaica…1 to 2 inches.
The Florida Keys, much of the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia…8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Western and Northern Florida peninsula from Tampa northward…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Rest of Eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and Western North Carolina…4 to 7 inches.
Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee…2 to 5 inches.
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible beginning Saturday morning across south Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Best wishes to all, we hope for the best possible outcome under the worst possible circumstances.
I’m so afraid for these millions of people, Florida will likely never be quite the same. 😔
No. We are going to lose a lot of infrastructure and the fruit trees will probably take years to recover. We also have a lot of cattle farming and vegetable farming as well. Not to mention the tourist economy. Disney and the other tourist attractions may very well be devastated for years – another hit to the economy.
Not Disney or the other big tourist places.
They plan for this continually, and most of the structures at the theme parks are built for this. Cinderella’s Castle at Disney (for example) is made out of thick concrete and heavy steel – it can take up to 125 MPH winds with no problem. Disney is closed Sunday and Monday, but will probably be at least partially open by Tuesday. Same for the other parks.
Likewise most of the hotels. The big ones are reasonably well-designed – when Charley hit in 2005, most of the damage was to signs and some windows. If you want a safe place to be for this, get to a major hotel ballroom or a convention center.
The biggest worry I have is the reasonably-new Orlando Eye. 400 foot tall Ferris wheel. This will be its first real weather test.
Hey, those models have not shown the same story twice in a row yet!
It is now hitting Cuba, predicted in none of the deadly certain model runs yesterday or the day before.
The turn north has not only not materialized despite it being many hours after this turn was to occur, the storm has now jogged southward by a bunch of miles from its up until then mostly due westward path.
I think we oughta all keep in mind these are the same machines, software, and people who predict 17 out of three blizzards dead on the money…and they only close the largest cities in the world, days in advance for nothing, a few times per Winter season.
Still recalling how it was with my first personal experience with a ‘cane…Elena in 1985. Heading due north and about to strike the central Gulf coast with absolute certainty, until an hour later it was heading due Eastward and was going to impact the Gulf coast of West Central Florida in a few hours instead, just as absolutely certain. “Take cover, head for the hills! This will be the most deadly and incredibly awful hurricane strike in history and PEOPLE WILL DIE!”
This was triggered the (up until that time) largest peacetime evacuation in US history. Hey, and only a few dozen died in traffic accidents and heart attacks on that one. Most people did not spend more than several hundred to a few thousand dollars fleeing.
Elena charges towards the coast (Impact so imminent it has pretty much already occur and boy was it awful)…gets right up to the coast, is about to drive onto the coast line, um…is really really really getting just about ready to hit (stalls and stops dead)…disaster delay slightly, storm will resume motion any second so Do Not Let Your Guard Down!
“Um, hey it stopped”
NO!…it has not stopped, it is resting and gathering strength and will be charging ashore any second now!
“Um hey, it has been a full 24 hours and it did not do what you said it would do once yet.”
Good Lord, do not dare look away from it for an instant…it is going to KILL EVERYONE WHO LOOKS AWAY and does not keep panicking!
“Er…OK, 48 hours now, maybe you should stop being so certain you know what it will do?”
NO! Uh…No. Um…no…well mayb…LOOK there it goes!
“Yeah, but it appears to be heading back the way it came from now.”
These things happen…but now you over there are Really Gonna Get It!
Hey, you…over there…it is coming for you, you are gonna get it! Why are you not paying attention…i am telling you what is about to happen.
Strikes Biloxi.
Andrew…remember him?
Almost no one left Homestead despite the thing heading dead at that place for over a thousand miles.
Why…why would they stay?!?
It was supposed to turn…never wavered or turned even slightly, forecast called for turn hours before landfall …nope, no turn, never did…continued straight along same path.
Oh, and then there was the time, uh…times… they drained Lake Okeechobee ahead of the storm that for sure golly whillikers damn straight it will…drop 16″ inches of rain, but rained far less than normal for regular thunderstorms and in fact did’nt rain much for the next 6 moths and a huge draught ensued.
Irma…yes, deadly. Was very powerful and still is. May still do exactly what they are saying but on a different path.
Still waiting for the turn.
Meh…probably will turn…soon…WE ARE SURE!
*Jeopardy! music*
…. and I don’t even have a thought for people in Cuba who are getting hit right now. Cuba is poor and people don’t have cat5 proof buildings and storm proof glass.
Well said Greg, good to see our humanity stretches outside the State of Florida. Though no doubt some will condemn you for your heart felt thoughts.
Personally, my mind is very filled with thoughts for things I can do something about or have some knowledge of or need to know more about.
The world is filled with people who are less fortunate, and more fortunate, who consider themselves better than us, or want to come here and be one of us, or want to come here and kill us, or never give us a second thought…
For what?
There are not enough minutes in a lifetime to virtue signal for every poor unfortunate who comes and goes on this Earth.
Is everyone who lives someplace it did not go, and does not spend any time publically hand wringing for the people that did get hit, somehow deficient in this elusive but desirable “humanity”?
Anyone who wants to go volunteer to dig people out of the rubble in Mexico can be assured of missing this hurricane as a bonus yayme.
BTW, that is not an “attack” on anyone, any more than mouthing platitudes is helpful to anyone.
People are people no matter where, the same applies for them. They however are victims of the Havana Dictatorship.
“Though no doubt some will condemn you for your heart felt thoughts.”
Possibly, although exceptionally unlikely.
But nowhere near as many as will condemn you for your patronising, sententious tw@ttery.
Take your pathetic virtue signalling BS and stuff it where the sun don’t shine.
Very sad. I think we all hoped somehow Florida wouldn’t get head on.
Uh…no one is hit yet.
How sad can you be in your imagination?
Yes Cuba is getting hit right now. No one’s imagination. But better to by hypothetically sad about Florida.
Greg appears to have a dim view on mankind.
The post was about Florida getting hit head on.
It is just amazing to me how with it no where near the US, the hoping it does not hit has apparently been abandoned as a useless effort.
I think worst case would have been Irma tracking up the east coast of Florida and following the coast all the way to Hatteras or beyond. It’s happened before.
This is one of the worst cases for Florida, as the stronger east (right) side of the hurricane hits the east Florida coast. The scenario you laid out would do less damage to a larger area.
True.. If Irma is moving north at 15 mph, with winds swirling counterclockwise at 150 mph, areas on the eastern side of the storm will experience winds of 165 mph. The storms speed adds to the wind velocity to the right(90 degrees) of the direction that it’s moving. With Irma’s track farther west now, it puts much of South Florida on the eastern “dirty” side of the storm.
On the previous track, along the east coast of Florida, land areas were to the left of the direction of motion, where the speed of the hurricane takes away from the circulating winds. If Irma makes landfall with 150 mph winds and is moving north at 15 mph, areas to the west/left will experience winds of 135 mph.
The difference between 135 mph and 165 mph is huge!
Though Irma will gradually weaken to a minimal hurricane, probably just before reaching the Georgia border. It’s forward speed may increase. Let’s say Irma tracks north across Florida all day Sunday at 20 mph.
Winds on the east side will be 40 mph stronger than areas on the west wide of the storm. There is no question that wind damage will be the greatest to the right of this hurricane as it is with every hurricane.
In this case, the right side will be the eastern side…….and the wrong side.
With model updates gradually shifting the track slightly farther west over the past 2 days, this is just maximizing the potential damage for the increasing land area which will be to the right of Irma.
Do you not think maybe for a second you should just say that until it turns the path is uncertain and keep your dire warnings to what MAY happen if it does a particular thing…which has so far not happened but may, but so may something else instead?
How many people did not leave the Keys over the past several days because it was by golly for sure gonna follow those models!
They are now back to where they were in terms of path up the state last Monday.
But in the meantime every forecast pulled it more and more to the East.
It has now jogged south of due west and is brushing Cuba, has slowed in forward speed and has inflow from the South from over a large and tall mountain range.
Sure it maybe it going to do what you say.
Remember that word?
Maybe?
US leader in the 1930s:
“We have nothing to fear but fear itself”.
US leaders and civil authorities and scientists in 2017:
” We have nothing to fear but a failure to panic and for everyone to know how awful this is definitely going to be”.
Menicholas, this post is passing on the opinion of an expert who we should believe knows what he’s talking about… and assuredly NOT a climate alarmist. He’s saying it will happen and its serious…
sometimes the sky really is falling. Take heed!
Knows what he is talking about?
As if I do not?
Does knowing what you are talking about give one a crystal ball into events which have yet to transpire?
Tell you what Griff, go back and read what I was saying nearly a week ago and every day since, and if you can make a comment that incorporates any of those thoughts, I will pay you some tiny bit of attention.
I can tell you one thing…your pronouncement of who does and who does not know what they are talking about is not exactly worth it’s weight in gold.
Your assumption that whether some is a warmista alarmist or somehow informs me of what to “believe in” is telling, although it has yet to occur to you in all these years that it is liberals who decide what to believe based on who is saying it.
He is being alarmist.
And a lot of climate skeptics are on the panic train right there with him.
Your reading comprehension must be zero if you somehow have the idea of I am heedless of the inherent danger of living in a hurricane zone.
“sometimes the sky really is falling.”
Alarmist claptrap
Grow up FFS.
Still at least a chance within these forecasts that the eye will miss Florida to the west. Best case would seem to be 50+plus miles to the west and losing enough steam by the time it hits the panhandle to not be catastrophic. I’ve got a prayer on that one, that and be safe.
Oh, thanks!. Why do you think Irma would not increase intensity in the warmer Gulf waters?
Wind shear?
Nah, it could never happen…maintain assured state of deadly certainty and PANIC!
Thanks to you too!
I’m so not okay with any of this. I get that it happens, Nature being who she is. But I really, really, wish it didn’t happen in my lifetime to the places and people I love.
Um…it has not yet.
It MAY happen.
Prepare for the worst…hope for the best.
Save the anguish and hand wringing for football games…you know, for when it matters.
Everyone who lives in these places knows it is just a matter of time.
And if they don’t, they better!
I am appalled.
Bunch of weak kneed sissified crybabies over milk that yes might spill.
That is going to spill someday.
We all always knew it.
And BTW, why should your lifetime and your friends be any different than all the people who had friends and lives in the past and had these things happen on an actual and frequent basis?
Have you not learned that everything we have and every day we have it is a gift?
I personally am so not ok with people who cannot handle even the thought of having to deal with unpleasantness.
Inability to deal with adversity is not a virtue.
It is a weakness…a mental disability.
Do not embrace such feelings.
It is repulsive to hear someone revel in their snowflake specialness.
Latest path projection. 17:51 ET:
I am afraid that my fears in Miami’s Vice will come true….highest winds look like they will force water right up Biscayne Bay will flood Miami and Miami Beach.
Current NHC storm surge forecast indicates 5-10 feet for Miami. With waves on top, the areas you indicated plus many more will be completely flooded.
John M ==> I am usually happy when I am right — but not this time.
Kip…you are not right yet.
Have you not noticed that tiny detail?
Amazing though…smug and contrite at the same time for being right about something which is still a projection and not a reality.
Few days ago there was chance of Irma being deflected by the jet streem
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-62.96,35.63,631/loc=-68.630,36.678
but it appears that the JS has moved a bit north and a further east
Ignorant peon here, but why don’t the models see it squeezing through the straight? Is there enough deflective power in the rising seabed (and Cuba) to deflect such a strong system?
…most of the models. That later graph wasn’t visible while I delayed my post… 🙂
I would like to know if these models include code that weights the path according to the frequency of paths of past hurricanes, or if the code is based only on the in situ hurricane and the weather & terrain surrounding it.
Keen Observer
There is a low down in the SE part of the US and the wind flows from it will steer Irma north. Here, I’ll let Levi Cowan explain it to you and give you an insight into how they forecast these things based on existing weather around them. Watch the video titled “Tropical Tidbit for Friday, September 8th, 2017.”
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
That would be model CLIPER which is the gold outlier to the left. Stands for CLImatology and PERsistence. The black straight line to the far left is simply persistence of the most recent track. Both are obviously inferior.
It’s amazing how many of the dynamic models are clobbering Naples. And it’s also amazing that Irma reached Cat 5 again with the southern eyewall only a few miles from the coast of Cuba.
I am right where this thing might hit.
I am gonna sit here in my living room sipping cold drinks between pruning trees around my house down to stumps.
They will grow back fuller anyway.
If it hits, they would have been shredded and maybe fell on my house. If it goes somewhere else the trees will look the same in a few months and by next year anyway…compact and great.
I have a ton of foods which will keep for a long time, and gas I will use one way or another, a generator I will get to use someday…I am sure of it, and it may even be this weekend.
I have prepared myself mentally since early this week to be ready to lose everything and live for a long time amid gradually being restored ruins.
I am also going to feel just dandy if it is anything less than that as a result of my acceptance.
If it is not this year and this time it will be some year and some time.
Every year some people get wiped out completely.
But boy oh boy am I gonna be happy if it goes somewhere else and I can look back and see that I always remembered to keep in mind that everything i thought was likely was only likely, not for sure.
That a worse case scenario was possible, not certain.
That bad storms happen and we have been very lucky in some areas at the same time we have become very stupid about how to build and where and at the same time we have become fragile pants pissers.
And I am gonna laugh…at the ruins or at my full cupboards and the egg on so many faces.
Good luck man, keep safe.
Than you Greg.
I am being as coldly rational about the whole thing as I can be.
I am not going to panic, no matter how many weather dudes and politicians say I must.
Neither am I going to do anything stupid, no matter how many times they tell us that panicking is the smart move.
Thanks, RAH. That link helped. I always looked at those track projections and wondered how a system so strong was expected to turn so sharply.
Not sure what you mean. Irma is a major system in the atmosphere — not in the water. Neither the “Straits of Florida” ( ? the straight ) nor a rising seabed would have an influence on such a large atmospheric system that rises to 9+ miles and covers such a huge area. Its track is determined by other systems in the atmosphere that are also changing and moving for their own reasons. If nothing else were there it would make a nice curve to the right in keeping with the principal of the Coriolis Force.
But keep in mind Coriolis is not a force but a phantom and an artifact of us projecting our spinning globe on to stationary flat maps.
It is inertia and conservation of angular momentum.
It is indeed a “fictitious force” but real enough to be the reason that hurricanes spin up and form. They do that without any need for our flat maps. 😉
My guess is they know nothing about flatness…or the forecasts they are supposed to follow, and sometimes seem to do.
Eh, at least a few model runs over the past few days had Irma’s Cat 5 eyewall winds extending right up the southeast coast of Florida in the most populated parts of the state, then Irma exiting into the Atlantic again, restrengthening to Cat 5, and hitting SC/NC. What is predicted now is not the worst possible scenario – at least there will be some weakening as it proceeds north and it appears there won’t be a re-emergence into the Atlantic for a second landfall.
It’s not a worst-case scenario for the US…but a worst-case scenario for FL. The headline states FL, not SC/NC.
So far it is all scenarios…it is hitting Cuba which none of the self assured panic mongers and fear merchants predicted even THIS MORNING!
This is tragic. Maybe lessons can be learned from this. Especially on the engineering and science side. Political Science isn’t real science, just a method of self gratification and enrichment resulting in really bad public policy.
Same goes for MSM… cut the bull crap and sensationalism. You are not experts Let alone engineers or scientists. You pick politically expedient ‘experts’ who know not what they do and exacerbate the problems. Should be a law against that as the public interest is at stake.
There used to be a thing called ‘journalistic responsibility’.
“journalistic responsibility” is an oxymoron.
Those poor people in Florida and Georgia. Pray for them, that they will survive with minimum injuries.
Georgia will only see a tropical storm and tropical depression, not a hurricane. As long as it doesn’t just sit there, they should be OK.
I’ve seen projections that Irma will still be a CAT II when it is adjacent to Jacksonville and that would mean hurricane force winds for southern GA.
Intensity projections are all over the map, and show an even wider and more ever-changing shotgun spread of trends.
The same models are not even showing much internal consistency.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2017/al112017/intensity_early/aal11_2017090906_intensity_early.png
I would have thought that at least the people here, and the people who are actually employed in the task of informing us of the weather, would keep in mind that the cone of uncertainty means that the center of the storm could be all the way on the left side of that cone, or all the way on the right side. The center is the most likely path, according to some mathematical calculation of likelihood which is strangely not quantified. How much more likely is the center of the cone that two thirds of the way to one side, or al the way over?
And the cone only represents a certain fraction of possible outcomes, although a supposedly high fraction.
It is the cone of Uncertainty, not the cone of certainty.
If the experts cannot show the discipline to act and speak accordingly, how can anyone be surprised when people do not heed them?
They should stop putting that line down the center of the cone…it makes the people making the maps forget what their own charts mean.
An even wider spread on intensity here.
We have seen projections literally all over the map.
Just sayin’.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2017/al112017/eps_track_by_model_extra_late/aal11_2017090818_eps_track_by_model_extra_late.png
Oops, this one:
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2017/al112017/intensity_late_stream15/aal11_2017090900_intensity_late_stream15.png
They call themselves the University of Miami Hurricanes for a very good reason. And Dade County
many moons ago implemented building codes that require laminated glass and other things to be able to withstand hurricanes, the biggest issue being broken windows. I have always associated hurricanes with Florida and always expected a couple to come ashore every year. A few days ago the prediction was for landfall with 145 MPH winds. Now some are saying 160. It is at 155 and one would expect a decrease due to its closer brush against Cuba. The predictions now have been lowered WRT upper Fla – before they had the storm remaining a hurricane throughout the length of Florida, but now they show it becoming a tropical storm before it gets out of Florida. Don’t understand the logic of the changes. The place where it hits first and is strongest, I believe to be the place that can best withstand the blow.
FWIW, I’ve been watching The Weather Channel lately, and I gotta say they are being very careful about what they say.
Nothing but the facts.
Florida may be better prepared than before Andrew, but millions of people are still in danger. Evacuation for many was not possible. The next few days (or weeks!) are going to be very difficult. I used to live there and still have friends in the area. Irma is a very serious storm that will threaten many lives. Survival after the storm may be as challenging as surviving the storm, if it goes straight up the peninsula, because the area of devastation will be so large. If so, it will test everyone.
Many people evacuated the east coast of FL for the gulf side. Now they’re under the cross-hairs on the gulf side. I know someone who has evacuated 3 times already. Headed up to Georgia now.
If rebuilding is so difficult, if losing our stuff is so disheartening we know not where we shall find the courage to continue on with out it…we do not own our stuff…it owns us.
It may not seem the time for it, but some places will have cause for gratitude towards the politicians who mandated stricter building codes to resist the inevitable hurricanes. No global warming scares needed.
There are politicians who mouth-off all the time for immediate personal political gain, and then there are politicians who manage to get sensible things done on the basis of pre-existing knowledge and experience.
Best wishes to all.
While Irma is a big nasty hurricane and will change some people’s lives forever, those that know the history of Florida are not surprised, contrary to reports in the media. From Betsy in 1965 until Andrew in 1992 few hurricanes, certainly not major ones hit Florida. Florida and developers got spoiled. Meanwhile, it was series of bad hurricanes from the late 1920s and early 1930s that all but stopped growth in Florida until after WWII. Even then people moving to Florida permanently lived inland because of Hurricanes. When I moved to Florida in 1959 there were 3 million people; today 20+ million residents and at any given time twice that many including tourists. All most all that growth took place in the coastal zone. Much of that development prior to Andrew in 1992 was not to any reasonable hurricane standards. We will hear all sorts of hyperbole from the AGW crowd and the news media. I will bet most of it will be centered around the billions of dollars of damage, number of structures damaged and they will conclude it is all because of global warming. Just ask them to explain the 1935 Labor Day storm or the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane. Or why with ever increasing CO2 we went from 2005 until now without a major storm.
Hope Cuba takes a huge bite out of Irma . And Irma Takes a huge bite out of Castro ….
Castro is dead, and there actual people in Cuba no matter what you think of there political system.
Oh, is Fidel still alive? Yes, I know, Raúl Castro is now in power.
Sweet Old Bob
What an appalling comment. Do you have no shame?
Simon….do you have no reading comprehension or do you love that despot Castro ?
There was no mention of Cuban PEOPLE , just the land mass .
Understand ?
Yeah Sweet Old Bob…when you wish them away and pray they miss, please observe the courtesy of not mentioning anything about who it will hit instead.
So….you love Castro ? A murdering despot ?
The boat people I talk to surely do NOT .
Joe Bastardi is saying that this year seems to be a repeat of 1935 with respect to how the factors that give us strong storms line up.
This is not good news.
Joe Bastardi, Joe d’Aleo and Ryan Maue are all part of WeatherBell.
I think they are the best in the business, in terms of integrity and predictive track record.
Here is a recent example:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/13/new-butt-covering-end-of-snow-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-2397292
Maue has left WeatherBell. His current professional affiliation is the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute. You can see it on his Twitter bio.
Ryan is still on the WeatherBell team, according to their website:,
https://www.weatherbell.com/
ouch just when irma is finalizing it’s eyewall replacement cycle
this is going to hurt big time
I have friends down there. So far, they’re okay, but they’re just as concerned as anyone else is. A couple have evacuated, going west and north, but that doesn’t mean they will escape the rains that Irma brings with her. Camille flooded a huge area of the east coast to the north, and Sandy (remember that one, a few years back?) and Andrew.
I’m just wondering if the cold air we’re getting where I live will shunt the storms eastward and leave us alone up here. We had our own disastrous flooding in July.
Not really. Camille dropped 26 to maybe 31 inches (controversial measurement) of rain on Nelson and Amherst counties in Virginia in under six hours. Small area. The downstream flow did send the James River into a serious flood for Richmond and the flood-prone town of Scottsville, but the heavy rain was really over a small area. Small streams like the Tye, Piney, and Rockfish also went into huge floods that were fatal but somewhat confined. The Virginia death toll was 113; many were never found. The rain was so heavy in Nelson County that the water peeled back the entire forest and soil, leaving bare rock on many of the mountainsides (that you can still see in spots when the leave are off the trees).
The trees and soil then formed debris dams at the bottom of the slopes that held back massive amounts of water until they broke under the pressure, resulting in an incredibly sudden flash flood. Structures in The Davis Creek area along US 29 was just obliterated.
I saw Camille come ashore from the Gulf Coast Research Laboratory at Ocean Springs MS (storm surge: 15+ feet according to the Corps of Engineers) on the eastern side of Biloxi Bay and ultimately became Virginia State Climatologist. That storm changed my life.
Blue sky and perfect temps here in SW Wis. Waiting for the Packer game to start. Nothing ever happens here. Almost bored……….almost.
Good luck to all living in more uncomfortable places. Anyone know what’s happening with cane Jose?
Adnrew dropped about an inch of rain over many states, but little more outside a few tiny spots, after departing Mississippi.
Widespread flooding on the East coast?
Looks to me that the eye-wall is about to come ashore in Cuba in the next couple hours, (at least the southern eye-wall) which hopefully knocks some “punch” out of the storm…
Radar/satellite link:
http://fox2now.com/2017/09/08/watch-live-hurricane-irma-satellite-and-radar/
JPP, thanks a ton for this link. It actually updates! I love raw data.
It looks like the whole eye of Irma just went into Cuba…we’ll see how it emerges, and if it lost any strength – hopefully for Florida…but it does have time to regenerate over that warm water…
That’s what I thought too, but apparently it was just a wobble. Now it looks like it bounced off the island.
Yes, although a worse case would include a stall and intensification north of Cuba.
You have to watch the 2nd video and zoom in…
Is there any possibility to use a drone and cause artificial rain in the eye of the storm?
It can then cause rain in the ocean and reduce the strength of the hurricane Irma.
Apparently this type of approach was being tried around the time that the eyewall replacement cycle was identified as a natural event, causing the project to be terminated.
I’ll buy a pint for the first climate modeller who replicates this process. Or rather, I would buy them a pint, because climate modellers aren’t able to produce models that incorporate something as small as a large hurricane. This reinforces the fact that climate scientists live on a different planet to the rest of us.
But climate model ensemble is now predicting the direction of storm movements. Those are good for short term prediction. The most practical approach is to send a plane nearer to the storm location (that we know from satellite picture) and then launch several drones towards the direction of storm movements. Using artificial rain in the ocean via those drones can definitely diffuse the strength of the storm.
LATEST PATH PROJECTION:
More of less a direct eye wall hit on Naples, Florida.
Things really don’t look good for Marco Island, which is about 1/2 canals. A strong storm surge would do a lot of damage.
JD
My take is things do not look good for the models that have predicted a turn that so far has not come and that yet predict it is about to start…and it looks awful for the breathless and direly screamed headlines of certain doom.
There is a chance this could get bad for some people in Florida.
It appears that the chance it may not has grown hugely.
As has the incredible and epic blunder so many have made and are still making by sticking their neck out on a projection.
It has not done what has been predicted!
How long can anyone insist that this last model run is the right one…forget about all that stuff I was saying.
Prognosticators should always, every single time, qualify their remarks about future events.
It is not heading hear…not yet.
It is not a worst case…there is no such thing, as that is a value judgement and not a scientific concept at all.
Or, there are infinitely many worst cases…and we have seen a large number of them come and go.
The people of America are increasingly relinquishing their freedom to various organizations. Here’s an article about a property management company that won’t let residents protect their property with storm shutters. It’s getting hard to live free.
That is what courts are for…to sue jackasses like those into abject poverty like they deserve.
Storm Surge Prediction for Biscayne Bay = 10 to 12 feet
I wish they would include a tide chart with these graphics.
Article is bullshit. Every 8 hours the turning point is 60 miles further west. By the time it “makes” the turn it’ll be offshore and the S.S. will barely come on-shore.
As someone who just went thru Harvey all I can offer are my prayers for the safety of the people of Florida and anyone in Irmas path.
Should have turned north by now, but it seems intent on visiting Cuba first.
Notanist
Bah humbug! Originally, the paths were up central FL, then they shifted (as a group) across FL to the east coast, then just off the east coast headed up towards Savannah, then back right up the middle of FL. Now? Up the west coast over top of Tampa.
Exactly RA!
I have never seen anything at all like the inanity on display for the past week.
…… to explain is the CURVE TO THE NORTH. from Sat. 2 pm on….. why doesnt the H. stays right on its track to the West? If it does not go into the curve….it was all balla-hoe and alarmism to scare the little guy in Florida….on the VENTUSKY weathermap the
Est West air flow is very strong….. why should the H. outcome be a South-North track?.
I would rather guess the track is along the Cuban coast and it would end in Alabama.
Volunteers please!
weltklima,
Hurricanes are steered to a large extent by the weather features around them. Irma continued to track west because of a high pressure system north of it advancing west as it did. Now in the SE US there is a low pressure system or “trough” and the wind flow around it expected to steer it to the north. It’s more complex than that but those are the highlights. To learn more about why watch the video from Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits titled:
“Tropical Tidbit for Friday, September 8, 2017”
Here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Robert Anson Heinlein? None of that is a comfort to my wife, she is angry and scared, Boy is just scared, this is the first time he will go with me into, well, whatever it turns out to be. He was too young for Katrina. Comes a point. And I really don’t want to do this again. Want. Not actually a word that applies to reality.
Thanks RAH…… it seems your weather map is months behind. Open please the
http://www.ventusky weather map and the SE US has a high of 1020 hPa (check the
air pressure map) and the wind flowing with 30- 40 kmh from Northeast to Southwest
over Florida, and not the other way around (check the wind map). This wind flow is increasing in speed…I do not see that the H. would move against the wind flow and a “trough” is also absent. I believe there must be some fake news in your map, left over from Obama time..
FLA has had several days evac notice, those who willingly remain had best be prepared for what is coming. Plenty of multi-storey buildings in the region, get your asses in them. Now. Get above flood level and stay to the interiors. Don’t be stupid, stay away from windows.
“those who willingly remain had best be prepared for what is coming. Plenty of multi-storey buildings in the region, get your asses in them. Now.”
Hey, assmunch…how about you STFU?
Now.
Really? People should not do anything to protect themselves? (snip) mod
Twenty million people should invite themselves in as guests anywhere they can find a multi story building?
What?
Every word is contemptible.
You write in a condescending and officious tone that goes way beyond insulting, without even making any sense at all.
Is it your everyday habit to tell millions of people what to do and do now?
And then make that thing you tell them a jackass impossibility?
You must be real great to work with, and lotsa fun at parties.
I can just about believe you must work in government making policy at the bureaucratic level.
Your comeback takes the cake.
Follow your idiotic orders or they are not doing anything?
Is that all the possibilities your mind can conjure.
I am gonna break it to you not gently.
You are a jerk, and have no idea what you are talking about, and are as persuasive as a loud drunk that falls staggering out of a barroom door into ones path.
Im struck by the thought of what a mass exodus would look like with Electric vehicles.
Yea, visions of nightmare. Actual self powered vehicles have a hard enough time in these situations.
I think it would look like a lot of people walking
If an EV runs out of power in an evacuation, it would be harder to recharge it and stop it from blocking traffic than it would be for a fellow evacuee or rescue worker (in a helicopter maybe) to pour a few gallons of gas into a gasoline-powered car.
Can you imagine a bunch of EVs trying to drive through rising salty storm surge? Short circuits, uncontrolled discharges….. electrocution hazards.
Not to worry…Elon will stand besides the highway throwing batteries to his adoring throngs of people who do not care about no stinking ranges or no stinking recharge time!
Sadly, South Florida is about to get a real test of the substantial upgrade of its building codes. Dade and Broward counties are referred to as the HVHZ (High Velocity Hurricane Zone). Much of the code was written after Andrew and focuses on wind borne debris protection – impact resistant glazing, storm shutters, roof/wall connections, mobile home tie down, etc. as well has higher basic wind speed criteria. But there is a limit to what can be done and remain economically viable. Other than large steel reinforced concrete structures, not much can deal with storm surge. Wind loads are proportional to the square of the velocity. Fwind(psf) = 0.00256 x V^2 (Bernoulli equation).
For a 100 mph wind the load is 25.6 pounds per square foot. At 150 mph the load would be 57.6 psf. If Irma maintains wind speeds at or above this level, it is going to be devastating. The effect of wind pressure can be amplified by openings in structures and negative pressures on the leeward. Much of the HVHZ requires structures to be designed for 90 psf or more. But there are undoubtedly many older structures built before the current requirements that are likely to be destroyed. And, there is a significant concern regarding the quality of new construction and adequate enforcement of the current codes.
Since it looks like a lot of the state will see HVHZ conditions, it will be interesting to see if Dade/ Broward come through better than other areas with less stringent requirements.
I certainly hope that the folks in Irma’s path have found adequate shelter and will stay safe.
Given current forecast track, the biggest problem will be storm surge from Naples to Tampa Bay.
We used CFAN’s track call 9/5 to decide to shelter in place in Fort Lauderdale. Unlikely to experience more than Cat 1. We survived a direct eyewall hit from Wilma at Cat 3 in 2005. Post Andrew concrete and steel building.
ristvan ==> You should be alright in Ft Lauderdale — you will have a storm, maybe even a big one, but if you don’t live on the waterfront or on a Florida canal, it won’t be that bad.
As of this morning, 10 am, the eye is dragging along the north shore of Cuba, which should bring down the strength of the storm overall – and the projected landfall keep moving a little west every cycle, now zero’d in on Sanibel Island.
We are hoping our friends in Punta Gorda have evacuated.
Wishing the best of luck to all Floridians. Protect yourselves first, your property second.
The one close friend I have in the region already put 1000 miles between him and Irma so I know he’s okay. Still hoping his home survives with little or no damage.
I wonder how many people are driving their electric cars out of Florida? Or are they just leaving them there for the elements to ravage?
I remember watching a documentary decades ago (excuse my ignorance, Im from Oz) that said that part of (I think Florida Keys) was built on sandbanks that were only geologically recent, like less than 20k years or something. That some heavily populated places were built on what was ephemera and could be washed away with enough of a cyclone. They said there were lots of retirees there and that the road routes out were a bit of a bottleneck, and that the sandbanks (with all the buildings on top) could wash away and lots of people die.
Does anyone know if this scenario is possible or likely under current conditions or was that decades old beatup?
The Florida Keys is a coral reef from the previous (Sangamonian) interglacial when the sea level was slightly higher than now. I’ve camped down there and it sure as hell isn’t sand. It’s coral limestone and you need a sledgehammer to get the tent-pins in.
So the Keys won’t wash away, but the storm surge will probably go right over them like it did in the Labor Day hurricane in 1935.
The barrier islands that line the East Coast and much of the Gulf Coast of the US and are widely built up, with cities and towns and millions of people and expensive real estate, are big sandbars though.
Mainly shaped and regularly reconfigured by huge storms like hurricanes and nor’easters.
Glad the nhc is forecasting this…..my uninformed look has the storm going over cuba, late turn, no keys, no florida. Will be interestng to watch…thoughts to all in her path.
If it goes the direction they say, Marathon and Islamadora in the Keys will be ground zero.
Better to be prepared and not need it, then to be unprepared and suffer the consequences. My reading of the baro-map suggests that it is possible Irma will not make landfall in Florida, but will follow a path of least resistance and continue to track westward. The keys look the most vulnerable, but actual Miami may get lucky. A hard right turn to the north is possible, but their is no sign of that happening as of 9/9/17 Z0300.
Looks like the whole eye of Irma went inland just south of Cayo Coco in Cuba – we’ll see where it emerges onto open water again…too far west and it goes into the gulf…
Do our hurricane planes fly into the eye of the hurricane when it’s over Cuba? I doubt it, they’ll get shot down.
Last post tonight – good night all – hope for the best…
There was a comment on this site within 24 hours that Cuba allows our hurricane planes over its territory.
No radar will see it in these clouds anyway.
I currently in central Florida, waiting out the storm in a Disney resort hotel.
Looking at the latest wind speed forecast map, I see some good news.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/214634.shtml?#wcontents
Looks like Miami has only a 30 to 40 percent chance of getting Category 1 windspeed of 74mph. Let’s hope that Westward trend of the last six hours continues!!!
Don’t you believe them!
There are several eggspurts here who have already ordered the handwringing over the loss of Miami to commence.
It is so sad that Miami ever had to ever get hit again by a hurricane…some people have friends there for golly sake.
If the storm hit farther away and has lower max sustained winds, the wind and storm surge there will be far worse that a closer landfall.
I know, I would not have believed it either!
And add up the forward speed with the faster wind speed listed to get and amount Miami will be wiped out with…the guys who measure wind speed do not take the readings with respect to any actual ground surface.
I know!
I would not have thought is was possible to specify a wind speed without respect to the fixed surface either…but there ya go!
The weird part is, in this storm, unlike in every single other one we have ever seen, the measured wind speed will be HIGHER that the max quoted for the whole storm, instead of not having one single location measure a speed anywhere near the stated intensity.
That is what bad storms and panic artists do.
My business partner lives in Boca Raton, cement-block home, hurricane shingles, generator. You live there, must be aware of the events of the past.
This is the Information Age. Much more data than we have ever had before, and all these claims about “Unprecedented,” well, shall we say, Unfounded claims.
Of course it has happened before.
Just not in the last 100 years of our 4.5 Billion-year-old planet.
And also, not since several million people moved to South Florida in the last couple-three decades.
And also, 1992, remember Andrew?
And one more thing, they tell you Ocean surface temperatures are Unprecedented, another lie, we have no reliable data.
Love the Mass Media, so helpful….
Um, I am pretty sure Bad hurricanes have hit most every spot in Florida at least once in the past 100 years.
So far not this year yet. I for one am waiting to see if and when and who and how bad.
Looks like turn to the north has begun.
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=42.43999863&lon=-71.5&zoom=8&pin=&rad=1&rad.type=00Q&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0
EWE,
Link takes you to the Boston Mass. area…. nicht sehr gut!
I’m one of the few libertarian/conservative in this swamp.
(Am ex-USN. EW3 was my rate/rating there)
Sorry, it’s late and I’m tired. Missed the meaning of your post.
Not sure how to get a proper link, but if you dig into wundermap (small wunder) you’ll see what I mean.
No thanks. Show us please.
We are all tired.
You already dug in, said something, and now want us to do some research?
also, you can zoom out until you see the area of interest, click on it, and then zoom in.
do fine adjustments by holding ‘mouse’ button down moving cursor across the screen.
Change lat=42.43999863 to lat=25.5 and zoom out until Cuba comes into the field of view.
thanks,
also you can zoom out until you see the area of interest, click on it, and then zoom in.
do fine adjustments by holding ‘mouse’ button down moving cursor across the screen.
The worst case scenario IS about to happen?
Or MAY be about to happen?
There are a lot of so called worst case scenarios.
So far none of them have occurred, and yet here are so many grown adults crying in their coffee about something everyone knows damn well is just a matter of time.
All this useless beauty…
I am having a hard time believing that ragged mess without even a completely closed eyewall anymore is still the monster that tore into those islands. Dry air is now appearing to entrain into the center…there are convection free areas within a few tens of miles of the eye.
Yep, some of the images linked by ren seem to show its structure is breaking up and dispersing having touched the coast of Cuba.
TPW for the body of the storm has dropped from 3″ to 2.5″ , since it’s running right along the coast of Cuba this is going to dry it further and disperse a lot of its energy.
I hope the failed forecasts of the last few days did not lull people on the north coast of Cuba into a false sense of safety.
The hurricane eye is now moving along the north coast of Cuba.
The jet stream pushes in the North Atlantic.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor1.GIF
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/h5-loop-rb.html
Good thing Miami has been evacuated.
Jose will also move west.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
ren, both the “rainbow loop” IR image and total precipitable water maps seems to be showing Cuba is defusing and dispersing Irma.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-62.96,35.63,631/loc=-68.630,36.678
looks like the southerly incursion of the jet stream has exerted enough pressure to shift the track slightly south of what was predicted a day or two ago making it hit Cuba, which at that time was not in its path and delaying the turn north which has yet to materialise.
Sure will be ironic if Cuba ends up saving Florida.
Jose aint going to amount to a hill of beans. Maybe add some pain to those islands which are trying to recover from a full hit from Irma but not much more.
Unless the northward turn happens pretty soon, FLA is going to escape a direct hit.
Will the hurricane slow down its movement in the Gulf of Mexico?
Looks like from the latest radar from Intellicast, that Irma is traveling due west for the last 2 hours…
Link radar, clink on pan and zoom… then you can animate…:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=39&longitude=-97&zoomLevel=4&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0039