The Week That Was: 2017-08-05 (August 5, 2017)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
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Quote of the Week. “The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existing. One cannot help but be in awe when he contemplates the mysteries of eternity, of life, of the marvelous structure of reality. It is enough if one tries merely to comprehend a little of this mystery every day.”– Albert Einstein
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Number of the Week: 4300 Days
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THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
UAH Atmospheric Temperature Data: Since the peak of the El Niño in early 2016, the chart of the December 1978 to July 2017 Lower Troposphere Anomaly produced by the Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) shows that temperatures have dropped, but not as sharply as after the previous peak in 1998. The 1998 El Niño was followed by a La Niña cooling. Currently, there is no indication of a La Niña occurring.
It will be interesting to follow what will happen for the remainder of the year and the first part of 2018. Will the temperatures generally rise, fall, or remain about the same? If they remain about the same, then we will have a general trend of temperatures slightly higher than the trend between 1998 and 2016 and about 0.2 °C above the average temperatures for the entire record. During the early part of the record, there were two volcanoes emitting aerosols, which have a cooling effect.
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Data Quality – Sea Surface Temperatures: Last week, TWTW discussed the presentation of land based surface temperatures by Roger Andrews. He showed that the NASA-GISS (Goddard Institution for Space Studies) introduced a strong warming bias in their data when GISS made homogeneity adjustments to their data. This change may have added a spurious warming of as much as 0.4°C to the record over the past 100 years or so. The false warming also occurs in the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) dataset, particularly in the data for the Southern Hemisphere.
Andrews starts his latest analysis with:
“Matching sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to climate models requires a large stair-step cooling adjustment. In this post, we review whether this adjustment is valid and find that it isn’t. The specific implications are that combined land-ocean “surface temperature” series underestimate global warming between 1910 and 1950 by approximately 0.3°C and that most of the sea surface warming in the 20th century occurred before 1950, not after. And because discarding the spurious adjustments applied to the raw SST data results in a large mismatch between models and observations the general implication is that we still have no good understanding of what drives temperature changes at the ocean surface.” [Boldface added.]
In other words, the warming that occurred took place prior to 1950. Late 20th century warming reported in most datasets is not present in the raw data.
In arriving at his conclusion, Andrews plots the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) raw global sea surface temperatures (SST) and compares them with Hadley sea surface datasets (HadSST3). By subtracting the two, he shows that in years prior to 1940, the annual raw data has been warmed, increased substantially. Also, Andrews concludes that the major problem is with the WW II data, which are bad data (around 1942). Removing the data eliminates any strong upward shift during WW II.
However, for 30 years other researchers have applied various adjustments to the data, as much as 0.3°C to over 0.4°C. As Andrews expressed when discussing the land data:
“You don’t adjust your raw data unless you have ironclad reasons for doing so. You either verify them or throw them out.”
Andrews goes on to discuss other adjustments applied to the raw data, all of which are questionable. He finds ICOADS data series may be reliable and possibly free of serious instrumental bias. However, the limited number of observations prior to 1950 reduces the reliability of the data in earlier years. Andrews presents a figure showing the annual number of SST observations from 1860 to the present day (figure 12). In 1950 there were about 500,000 observations; in 1960, 1,000,000; and by 1995, 2,000,000. One can assert that even the limited number of observations prior to 1995 raises questions as to reliability.
As with land surface data, adjustments to these datasets create major problems in their credibility. As discussed in the February 11 TWTW, the adjustments made by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in Ashville, make their datasets even less credible than before.
Blending surface temperature data with atmospheric temperature data, as the principals of Remote Sensing Systems have suggested, is like blending waste water with spring water. The result may be less distasteful than waste water alone, but it is not drinkable. See links under Measurement Issues — Surface
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Credibility – Climate Projections: For those who enjoy the writings of Jonathan Swift, Australian author and journalist Clive James provides a refreshing alternative to the dull writing found on these pages. In a chapter of the book, “Climate Change: The Facts” James discusses the difficulty of addressing the false predictions of climate alarmists: “Mass Death Dies Hard.”
James suggestions that a starting point of “the theme of the permanently imminent climatic apocalypse might be taken as 3 August 1971, when the Sydney Morning Herald announced that the Great Barrier Reef would be dead in six months.” For over 45 years, we have had constant announcements of its imminent death.
James discusses the failure of major news organizations to recognize the reputable scientists who use hard evidence to strongly question such claims. He brings up the concept of rubber numbers:
“Just as all branches of the modern media love a picture of something that might be part of the Overwhelming Evidence for climate change even if it is really a picture of something else, they all love a clock ticking down to zero, and if the clock never quite gets there then the motif can be exploited forever. But the editors and producers must face the drawback of such perpetual excitement: it gets perpetually less exciting. Numbness sets in, and there is time to think after all. Some of the customers might even start asking where this language of rubber numbers has been heard before.
“It was heard from Swift. In Gulliver’s Travels, he populated his flying island of Laputa with scientists busily using rubber numbers to predict dire events. He called these scientists ‘projectors’. At the basis of all the predictions of the projectors was the prediction that the Earth was in danger from a Great Comet whose tail was ‘ten hundred thousand and fourteen’ miles long. I should concede at this point that a sardonic parody is not necessarily pertinent just because it is funny; and that although it might be unlikely that the Earth will soon be threatened by man-made climate change, it might be less unlikely that the Earth will be threatened eventually by an asteroid, or let it be a Great Comet; after all, the Earth has been hit before.
“That being said, however, we can note that Swift has got the language of artificial crisis exactly right, to the point that we might have trouble deciding whether he invented it, or merely copied it from scientific voices surrounding him in his day. James Hansen is a Swiftian figure. Blithely equating trains full of coal to trains full of people on their way to Auschwitz, Hansen is utterly unaware that he has not only turned the stomachs of the informed audience he was out to impress, he has lost their attention.”
One wonders whether Vincent Gray had Swift’s concept of “projectors” in mind when he severely criticized the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for using the term predictions. Gray convinced the IPCC that mathematical models that have not been verified and validated cannot make predictions. Then, the IPCC changed the term to projections.
Unfortunately, many once distinguished scientific organizations have embraced these “rubber numbers” and the “semi-science” built around them. The leaders of these organizations are undermining the credibility of their own organizations and the enormous efforts that went into building that credibility. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Adapting to Climate Change: The earth’s climate has been changing for hundreds of millions of years. Our species evolved over periods of rapid climate change – ice ages interrupted by brief warm periods. The late Robert Carter, a co-editor of the reports of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), argued that the climate is changing and civilization needs adapt to change.
Writing in the Wall Street Journal, researchers David Henderson and John Cochran argue that even if temperatures are rising, we do not know of an appropriate policy to address it. Readers realize that TWTW frequently cites the lack of hard evidence showing carbon dioxide (CO2) is the cause of late 20th century warming. The core arguments of Henderson and Cochran are cited in Article # 1, below.
Also interesting were a number of the published letter responses, parts of which are given below. For example:
“To assert that carbon dioxide ‘hurts nobody’s health’ is ignorant. Humans exhale carbon dioxide as a waste product. C02 is linked to myriad deleterious health ailments including respiratory conditions.”
It may surprise the author to recognize that what is a waste product to animals is necessary for life as we generally know it. See Article # 1, Article # 2, and links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC.
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Model Based Alternative Electricity: All too frequently, model builders become divorced from reality. Those using models to study the future integration of 100 Gigawatts (GW) of solar power and 60 GW of wind power into the electric grid of India by 2022 for the US National Renewable Energy Laboratories are no exception. The power grid relies on electrical generation that can be controlled, so that grid operators can balance the power being used with the power being generated. There is some inertia, but as the September blackout in South Australia demonstrated, a system without immediate backup for variation in wind or solar can result in very costly and long repair.
The NREL study modeled 15-minute interval data and smoothed data variation. (See section 2.2.5 Load) This long interval data may be suitable for running water pumps, but for any high-tech use, it is far from satisfactory. Short-term, sudden changes can be disastrous for high-tech manufacturing, communications, etc. It is folly to use such a study to claim that solar and wind can be easily integrated into a high-tech grid, which India wishes to achieve. See links under Energy Issues – Non-US
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Why Li? With an atomic weight of 7, Lithium (Li) is the third lightest element on the Periodic Table, the lighter ones being the gases Helium and Hydrogen. Its light weight and high energy density make Lithium very desirable for batteries in portable electronic devises and electric cars. Using a study by P. Kauranen of the Academy of Finland as a springboard, Euan Mears provides an overview of Lithium reserves as well as the other key component in Li-ion batteries, Cobalt.
Lithium is found in Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, China, Australia, US and elsewhere in brines (water) and rock. So, there is little concern over production being limited by political upheaval. However, cobalt is found mostly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo – not noted for political stability. See links under Energy Issues – Non-US
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Renewable Fuel Standards: Those staffing the EPA panels on hearings, also called listening tours, exhibit significant restraint, usually restricting verbal comments to polite thank-you and calling of the next person. Depending on the subject, the panelists may listen to many types of special pleading, including those testifying pulling photos of grandchildren out of wallets, endless data on what may happen if a regulation is changed, etc. For these reasons, those testifying for SEPP have tried to make their comments brief, pointed, and sometimes amusing.
This week, the EPA held hearings on the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for blending ethanol and biomass fuels with gasoline, though some of the required fuels do not exist commercially. In SEPP’s testimony, I greeted the panelists as carbon-based life forms, then suggested that the best thing for the EPA to do is to request Congress and the Administration to repeal the laws creating the RFS. They are unneeded and obsolete. The 1987 repeal of the “Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act of 1978” was an example of the repeal of a law that unneeded and obsolete.
Breaking custom, after the comments the head of the panel remarked that being called a carbon-based life form is the politest thing he has been called for several years. See links in last week’s TWTW.
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Number of the Week: 4300 Days: According to Roy Spencer, it has been 4300 days, almost 12 years, since a major hurricane made landfall in the United States, category 3 or higher. After the 2004 and 2005 hurricane season, “projectors” such as former Vice President Al Gore claimed 2005 was the new normal. Perhaps, Clive James would ask: the new normal for whom? See links under Changing Weather.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
VOTING FOR THE COVERTED SEPP TROPHY HAS ENDED: We thank you for your support. The winner will be announced at the Annual Conference of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness (DDP), August 11 to 13.
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NO TWTW NEXT WEEK: Attending the DDP Conference, Thank you
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
New Study By German Physicists Concludes We Can Expect Climate Cooling For Next 50 Years!
German physicists: “CO2 plays only minor role for global climate”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 1, 2017
Link to paper: Harmonic Analysis of Worldwide Temperature Proxies for 2000 Years
By Horst-Joachim Lüdecke1, Carl-Otto Weiss, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2017
https://benthamopen.com/FULLTEXT/TOASCJ-11-44
Climategate Continued
Arctic Lake Sediments: Reply to JEG
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, July 29, 2017
https://climateaudit.org/2017/07/29/arctic-lake-sediments-reply-to-jeg/
Julien Emile-Geay (JEG) submitted a lengthy comment concluding with the tasteless observation that “Steve’s mental health issues are beyond PAGES’s scope. Perhaps the CA tip jar pay for some therapy?” – the sort of insult that is far too characteristic of activist climate science. JEG seems to have been in such a hurry to make this insult that he didn’t bother getting his facts right.
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
E&E Legal Wins Major Rulings in Two Separate Vermont Public Records Suits Involving AG’s Climate RICO Crusade
By Charles the moderator, WUWT, July 28, 2017
[SEPP Comment: On the States Attorneys General RICO scheme to suppress questioning of carbon dioxide’s influence on global warming / climate change.
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Clive James, ‘Climate Alarmists Were Bound to Run Out of Credibility’
By Staff Writers, GWPF, July 31, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/clive-james-climate-alarmists-were-bound-to-run-out-of-credibility/
Link to paper: Mass Death Dies Hard
By Clive James, GWPF, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/07/Clive-James.pdf
Link to book for purchase: Climate Change: The Facts
Institute of Public Affairs, 2017
https://payments.ipa.org.au/cctf/
Successful Cover-up and Lack of Accountability in Climate Deception
Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball, WUWT, July 30, 2017
Series and Research Reports Challenge ‘Consensus Science’
By Joseph D’Aleo, Redneck USA, Aug 4, 2017
https://redneckusa.wordpress.com/2017/08/04/series-and-reesarch-reports-challenge-consensus-science/
Defending the Orthodoxy
Carbon Brief’s Attempt To “FactCheck” The Telegraph Backfires Badly!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 3, 2017
The Death of ‘Alternative Energy’
The definition of what’s “alternative” has changed dramatically in the last decade, writes Andrew Beebe.
By Andrew Beeb, Green Tech Media, Aug 1, 2017
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-death-of-alternative-energy
“A coal plant built today would not be competitive with a combination of wind and solar in virtually any location in the country. And nowhere would it be competitive with natural gas.”
[SEPP Comment: If the cost of full and immediate backup is included, the first statement is false. Which region of the country wants unreliable electricity?]
The Costly Lessons of Climate Change
By Jim Baird, Energy Collective, July 31, 2017
http://www.theenergycollective.com/jim-baird/2409568/costly-lessons-climate-change
[SEPP Comment: But the warming effect of CO2 occurs in the atmosphere, not in the polar oceans.]
The IPCC gives us good news about climate change, but we don’t listen
By Larry Kummer, Fabius Maximus, Via WUWT, July 29, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Just get rid of fossil fuels for transportation and reliable electricity, the world will be safe from IPCC fears?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Bill Nye: The Real Message We Should Pay Attention To
By Joe Bastardi, ICECAP, Aug 4, 2017
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/bill_nye_the_real_message_we_should_pay_attention_to/
[SEPP Comment: Nye correctly stated that one of America’s greatest military leaders warned the nation of the dangers of the military-industrial complex and a scientific-technological elite.]
Commentary: The 6 biggest reasons I’m a climate-change skeptic — and why you should be a skeptic too
By Justin Haskins, The Blaze, July 23, 2017
Are Climate Warriors Giving Up?
By Brian C. Joondeph, American Thinker, Aug 4, 2017
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/08/are_climate_warriors_giving_up.html
After Paris!
Prove Paris was more than paper promises
All major industrialized countries are failing to meet the pledges they made to cut greenhouse-gas emissions, warn David G. Victor and colleagues.
By David Victor, et al, Nature, Aug 1, 2017
Seeking a Common Ground
Weather-related Natural Disasters: Should we be concerned about a reversion to the mean?
By Roger Pielke Jr. Risk Frontiers, July 31, 2017 [H/t ICECAP]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Cold vs Heat as the Primary Cause of Acute Myocardial Infarction
Claeys, M.J., Rajagopalan, S., Nawrot, T.S. and Brook, R.D. 2017. Climate and environmental triggers of acute myocardial infarction. European Heart Journal 38: 955-960. Aug 4, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/aug/a4.php
No Direct Human Health Risk Under a CO2 Exposure of 3000 ppm
Liu, W., Zhong, W. and Wargocki, P. 2017. Performance, acute health symptoms and physiological responses during exposure to high air temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. Building and Environment 114: 96-105. Aug 1, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/aug/a1.php
The Competitive Advantage of Crops Over Weeds at Elevated CO2 Concentrations
Kaciene, G., Kiksaityte, A., Januskaitiene, I., Miskelyte, D., Zaltauskaite, J., Sujetoviene, G., Sakalauskiene, S., Miliauskiene, Juozapaitiene, G. and Juknys, R. 2017. Different crop and weed performance under single and combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature. Crop Science 57: 935-944. July 31, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/jul/a13.php
“Commenting on these and other of their findings, Kaciene et al. conclude that ‘crops, especially legumes, take a considerably higher advantage from elevated [CO2] compared with weed species, as can be seen from significantly greater stimulation of biomass production and photosynthetic rate, a lower degree of photosynthetic downregulation, and higher water use efficiency,’ adding that ‘apart from this, [the] combined treatment with elevated (700 ppm) CO2concentration and air temperature elevated 4°C above ambient leads to even higher stimulation of plant growth and photosynthetic performance.’ And thus, it is that ‘these findings suggest that the investigated crop species, especially pea plants, have high advantage than weed under rising [CO2], and this benefit is detected to be even higher under elevated [CO2] and temperature.’”
Measurement Issues — Surface
Making the Measurements Match the Models – Part 2: Sea Surface Temperatures
By Roger Andrews, Energy Maters, Aug 2, 2017
Australia’s MET Office Orders Full Review After Agency Was Caught Tampering with Temperature Logs
By Graham Lloyd, The Australian, Via GWPF, Aug 1, 2017
[SEPP Comment: A new way to keep warm on cold winter nights?]
Scandal: Australian Bureau of Meteorology caught erasing cold temperatures
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 1, 2017
BOM scandal heats up: Kininmonth, Watts, Nova quoted in The Australian “We audit banks, why not BOM?”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 3, 2017
BOM scandal: “smart cards” filter out coldest temperatures. Full audit needed ASAP!
The story changes: first it was quality control, then equipment failure, now a smart card?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 5, 2017
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for July 2017: +0.28 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Aug 1, 2017
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/08/uah-global-temperature-update-for-july-2017-0-28-deg-c/
Link to July 2017 Map, Graph, and Global Temperature Report
Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2017/july/JULY_2017_map.png
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2017/july/July2017_tlt_update_bar.png
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2017/july/julyGTR2017.pdf
Changing Weather
4,300 Days Since Last U.S. Major Hurricane Strike
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, July 31, 2017
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/07/4300-days-since-last-u-s-major-hurricane-strike/
Mainland US and Florida Hurricane ‘drought’
By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow, WeatherBELL Analytics, and ICECAP, July 31, 2017
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/mainland_us_and_florida_hurricane_drought/
Changing Seas
Media blackout on NASA report that sea level has fallen the last two years
By Thomas Lifson, American Thinker, July 29, 2017 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: References essays by Fred Singer.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Polar Stability: Antarctic Cold Deepens, Arctic Refuses To Melt Faster In June/July 2017
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Aug 4, 2017
Climate change evident as icebreaker sets mark for earliest Northwest Passage transit
By Frank Jordans, AP, July 29, 2017 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: How early would the icebreaker have done it without electronics and if it was powered by sail?]
Questioning European Green
EU blasts Donald Trump for rejecting Climate Accord then increases coal exports from USA
US COAL exports have jumped more than 60 percent this year due to soaring demand from Europe and Asia, according to government data, allowing President Donald Trump’s administration to claim that efforts to revive the battered industry are working. [Imports From?]
By Staff Writers, Express, UK, July 28, 2017
Questioning Green Elsewhere
How Your Tax Dollars May Save Energy but End Up Penalizing Homeowners
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Aug 4, 2017
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/3788
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
“Alligator Shoes” in California (James Hansen is right on cap-and-trade)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Aug 2, 2017
https://www.masterresource.org/cap-and-trade-carbon-pricing/hansen-california-alligator-shoes/
[SEPP Comment: Keeping the cash flowing, the job of lobbyists.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Refineries go to battle with oil majors over ethanol
By James Osborne, Houston Chronicle, Aug 1, 2017
EPA and other Regulators on the March
“But Climate Change…” Wails EPA Official in Resignation Letter
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Aug 4, 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]
Congress Could Give Trump The Power To Immediately Repeal The ‘Waters Of The US’ Rule
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, July 28, 2017 [H/t WUWT]
Lithium: Reserves, Use, Future Demand and Price
By Euan Mearns, Energy Matters, July 31, 2017
http://euanmearns.com/lithium-reserves-use-future-demand-and-price/#more-19100
Link to paper: Raw material needs by the Li-ion battery industry
By Dr P. Kauranen, Academy of Finland, May 17, 2017
http://closeloop.fi/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Li-raw-materials-20170517.pdf
Germany Is Addicted to Russian Gas
By Weixin Zha and Anna Shiryaevskaya, Forbes, Bloomberg, July 4, 2017
OPEC’s Existential Sucker Punch
By Julian Lee, Bloomberg, July 30, 2017 [H/t Bloomberg]
Coal to dominate in India through 2047 says report
By Tildy Bayar, Power Engineering International, July 28, 2017 [H/t Paul Homewood]
Link to report: Energizing India,
A Joint Project Report of NITI Aayog and IEEJ, June 16, 2017
http://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/Energy%20Booklet.pdf
“India’s energy mix would stay between 42 and 50 per cent for the next 30 years, providing baseload power along with nuclear.”
“Coal-fired plants supplied 58 per cent of India’s total power generation in 2015.”
Study Shows India Can Integrate 175 GW of Renewable Energy into Its Electricity Grid
Press Release, NREL, July 12, 2017 [Toshio Fujita]
http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2017/44814
Link to report: Greening the Grid: Pathways to Integrate 175 Gigawatts of Renewable Energy into India’s Electric Grid, Vol. I—National Study
By David Palchek, et al. NREL, Financed by USAID, 2017
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68530.pdf
Capital Investment in the UK Energy and Electricity Sectors
By John Constable, GWPF, Aug 2, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/capital-investment-in-the-uk-energy-and-electricity-sectors/
Link to report: UK energy in brief 2017
By Staff Writers: Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy, July 27, 2017
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-energy-in-brief-2017
“New data published by the UK’s Department of Business Energy and Industrial Strategy allows us to estimate that 36% of total energy sector capital formation since 2010 has been devoted to renewables. Nearly all of that has been in the electricity sector, where 83% of the capital invested (£52 billion) has been in renewable generation. This does not appear to be a balanced distribution of risk across technologies.”
Britain’s Energy Policy Keeps Picking Losers
By Matt Ridley, The Times, Via GWPF, Aug 2, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/matt-ridley-britains-energy-policy-keeps-picking-losers/
Drilling set to begin in British shale
Cuadrilla Resources says its drilling rig is on site and ready to tap into a natural gas basin in Lancashire.
By Daniel J. Graeber, UPI, July 28, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.upi.com/Drilling-set-to-begin-in-British-shale/7071501242802/
[SEPP Comment: Estimates two shale gas wells will be completed by the end of 2017.]
Gas Heating To Be Replaced By Thin Air!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Aug 1, 2017
Energy Issues – Australia
Australians paying $600 per household to subsidize wind and solar
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, July 31, 2017
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/07/australians-paying-600-per-household-to-subsidize-wind-and-solar/
SA reduces blackouts by closing Holden Factory
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 2, 2017
http://joannenova.com.au/2017/08/sa-solves-blackouts-crisis-partly-by-closing-holden-factory/
[SEPP Comment: The factory is owned by General Motors and scheduled to close.]
Energy Issues — US
With OPEC Weakening, World Energy Now Pits Russia Versus U.S.
By Kenneth Rapoza, Forbes, July 29, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Greatly overstated.]
As Venezuela Spirals, U.S. Oil Confronts a $10 Billion Threat
By Alex Nussbaum and Sheela Tobben, Bloomberg, Aug 3, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Canadian oil sands can fill the void – though it would take time to build the Keystone XL pipeline, which could have been built and operating by now with private funds.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Next Generation of Fossil Fuels
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Aug 4, 2017
http://www.powerforusa.com/2017/08/04/next-generation-of-fossil-fuels/
[SEPP Comment: Methane hydrates.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
South Carolina companies scrap $14 billion nuclear project
By Devin Henry, The Hill, July 31, 2017
America’s Biggest Energy Problem
By Jamie Horgan, The American Interest, Aug 2, 2017
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/08/02/americas-biggest-energy-problem/
[SEPP Comment: Fear of nuclear power.]
Can The U.S. Even Build A Nuclear Plant These Days?
By Liam Denning, Bloomberg, Aug 1, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Natural gas prices are no longer considered high and volatile.]
Wasting America’s nuclear opportunity
By Jeremy Carl and David Fedor, The Hill, Aug 3, 2017
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/345021-wasting-americas-nuclear-opportunity
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Britain’s £246m battery challenge won’t solve energy storage problem
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, July 29, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Exposes inflated numbers of solar and wind.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Biofuel Justifications are Kaput
By Paul Driessen, Townhall, July 29, 2017
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Green Suicide: German Car-Makers Face Existential Crisis After Betting on ‘Green’ Diesel
By Staff Writers, Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, July 29, 2017
Germany’s Unprecedented Push to Fix Diesel Disrupted by Protests
By Elisabeth Behrmann and Birgit Jennen, Bloomberg, Aug 2, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Dilemma, diesels produce less greenhouse gas than petrol, but more nitrogen oxides.]
‘Mini-consensus’ at diesel summit/ Emissions may rise 2017 -think tank
By Sven Egenter, Julian Wettengel, Clean Energy Wire, DE, July 28, 2017
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/why-german-diesel-summit-matters-climate-and-energy-policy
California Dreaming
California Counties and City Sue Energy Companies over Climate Change, Sea Level Rise
By Staff Writers, JDSUPRA, July 27, 2017 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/california-counties-and-city-sue-energy-29042/
[SEPP Comment: Is the solution for the utilities to promise never again to supply reliable electricity to these areas? What will the city fathers say if they cannot process sewage or receive water delivered by electric pumps?]
Health, Energy, and Climate
Dozens hospitalized in Indonesia as thick haze spreads
By Staff Writers, Meulaboh, Indonesia (AFP), July 26, 2017
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Dozens_hospitalised_in_Indonesia_as_thick_haze_spreads_999.html
“’The land fires have been caused by people who clear their land by the traditional slash and burn method, so the fire spreads,’ national disaster agency spokesman Sutopo Purno Nugroho said.”
[SEPP Comment: To clear land for palm oil and pulpwood plantations?]
Dear CDC, Thanks For Debunking ‘Chronic’ Lyme Disease Myth
By Ruth Kava, ACSH, June 22, 2017
http://www.acsh.org/news/2017/06/22/dear-cdc-thanks-debunking-chronic-lyme-disease-myth-11471
‘Global pandemic’ possible as Lyme disease creeps north
By Umair Irfan, E&E News reporter, July 28, 2017
https://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2017/07/28/stories/1060058045
“The infection’s range is expected to move northward into Canada by 250 to 500 kilometers (155 to 310 miles) by 2050, and the season for the disease may start up to two weeks earlier than it does now. Health officials report similar patterns in Europe.”
[SEPP Comment: Lyme disease was described about 1910 in Sweden. See link immediately above.]
Environmental Industry
Plastics Yet Again
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen, WUWT, July 28, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/28/plastics-yet-again/
Other Scientific News
‘Scientists Are Mostly Wrong’: Or Why published research is untrustworthy
By Staff Writers, GWPF, July 29, 2017
https://www.thegwpf.com/scientists-are-mostly-wrong-or-why-published-research-is-untrustworthy/
Link to paper: Why published research is untrustworthy
By Gunnar Lose & Niels Klarskov, The International Urogynecological Association, July 13, 2017
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00192-017-3389-1.pdf
“The attitude that scientists are always right should be changed; they are most often wrong. Instead of trying to make cosmetic changes to their results, they should openly and frankly recognize the weakness of the results.”
Example Of How To Eliminate P-values & Their Replacement
By William Briggs, His Blog, July 31, 2017
http://wmbriggs.com/post/22336/
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
DARPA Wants to Build a BS Detector for Science
By Adam Rogers, Wired, July 30, 2017
https://www.wired.com/story/darpa-bs-detector-science/
Save the bread basket!
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions, July 29, 2017
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/8779
“But the area known as the cradle of civilization is now under serious threat.
“Before the end of this century, the Middle East’s legendary bread basket could dry up as a result of global warming, to the extent that it is no longer suitable for traditional rain-fed agriculture — destroying its existence as an agrarian landscape.
“However, Pinhas Alpert, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Tel Aviv University believes the Fertile Crescent can still be saved.
“It ‘depends very much on how the world will react, whether the world will really take serious action as is needed (against climate change),’ he says.” Spiegel Online, 16 Apr 2008
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1. Climate Change Isn’t the End of the World
Even if world temperatures rise, the appropriate policy response is still an open question.
By David R. Henderson and John H. Cochrane, WSJ, July 30, 2017
https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-isnt-the-end-of-the-world-1501446277
SUMMARY: Arguing for adaption, the researchers write:
“Climate change is often misunderstood as a package deal: If global warming is “real,” both sides of the debate seem to assume, the climate lobby’s policy agenda follows inexorably.
“It does not. Climate policy advocates need to do a much better job of quantitatively analyzing economic costs and the actual, rather than symbolic, benefits of their policies. Skeptics would also do well to focus more attention on economic and policy analysis.
“To arrive at a wise policy response, we first need to consider how much economic damage climate change will do. Current models struggle to come up with economic costs commensurate with apocalyptic political rhetoric. Typical costs are well below 10% of gross domestic product in the year 2100 and beyond.
“That’s a lot of money—but it’s a lot of years, too. Even 10% less GDP in 100 years corresponds to 0.1 percentage point less annual GDP growth. Climate change therefore does not justify policies that cost more than 0.1 percentage point of growth. If the goal is 10% more GDP in 100 years, pro-growth tax, regulatory and entitlement reforms would be far more effective.
“Yes, the costs are not evenly spread. Some places will do better and some will do worse. The American South might be a worse place to grow wheat; Southern Canada might be a better one. In a century, Miami might find itself in approximately the same situation as the Dutch city of Rotterdam today.
“But spread over a century, the costs of moving and adapting are not as imposing as they seem. Rotterdam’s dikes are expensive, but not prohibitively so. Most buildings are rebuilt about every 50 years. If we simply stopped building in flood-prone areas and started building on higher ground, even the costs of moving cities would be bearable. Migration is costly. But much of the world’s population moved from farms to cities in the 20th century. Allowing people to move to better climates in the 21st will be equally possible. Such investments in climate adaptation are small compared with the investments we will regularly make in houses, businesses, infrastructure and education.
“And economics is the central question—unlike with other environmental problems such as chemical pollution. Carbon dioxide hurts nobody’s health. It’s good for plants. Climate change need not endanger anyone. If it did—and you do hear such claims—then living in hot Arizona rather than cool Maine, or living with Louisiana’s frequent floods, would be considered a health catastrophe today.
“Global warming is not the only risk our society faces. Even if science tells us that climate change is real and man-made, it does not tell us, as President Obama asserted, that climate change is the greatest threat to humanity. Really? Greater than nuclear explosions, a world war, global pandemics, crop failures and civil chaos?
“No. Healthy societies do not fall apart over slow, widely predicted, relatively small economic adjustments of the sort painted by climate analysis. Societies do fall apart from war, disease or chaos. Climate policy must compete with other long-term threats for always-scarce resources.
“Facing this reality, some advocate that we buy some “insurance.” Sure, they argue, the projected economic cost seems small, but it could turn out to be a lot worse. But the same argument applies to any possible risk. If you buy overpriced insurance against every potential danger, you soon run out of money. You can sensibly insure only when the premium is in line with the risk—which brings us back where we started, to the need for quantifying probabilities, costs, benefits and alternatives. And uncertainty goes both ways. Nobody forecast fracking, or that it would make the U.S. the world’s carbon-reduction leader. Strategic waiting is a rational response to a slow-moving uncertain peril with fast-changing technology.”
After discussing top environmental threats such as dirty water, air, and insect-borne diseases, the authors state many of the IPCC’s “solutions” that deal with social issues fail to address the global warming caused by CO2. They conclude:
“Climate policy advocates’ apocalyptic vision demands serious analysis, and mushy thinking undermines their case. If carbon emissions pose the greatest threat to humanity, it follows that the costs of nuclear power—waste disposal and the occasional meltdown—might be bearable. It follows that the costs of genetically modified foods and modern pesticides, which can feed us with less land and lower carbon emissions, might be bearable. It follows that if the future of civilization is really at stake, adaptation or geo-engineering should not be unmentionable. And it follows that symbolic, ineffective, political grab-bag policies should be intolerable.”
Mr. Henderson is a research fellow with the Hoover Institution and an economics professor at the Naval Postgraduate School. Mr. Cochrane is a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution and an adjunct scholar of the Cato Institute.
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2. Unchecked Climate Change Will Lead to War
Climate change causes environmental degradation which will drive food shortages, disease, migrations and wars.
Letters, WSJ, Aug 3, 2017
https://www.wsj.com/articles/unchecked-climate-change-will-lead-to-war-1501791899
Selected statements from the five published letters addressing the Henderson and Cochrane op-ed presented above:
“…David Henderson and John Cochrane argue that climate-change policy should follow careful economic analysis Yet, their suggested form of analysis[is] outside their narrow model. Already counted in the hundreds of thousands a year are deaths associated with crop failures and food scarcity, heat waves and forced relocation.”
“War, disease and chaos are exactly the stresses to which unchecked climate change will lead. Environmental degradation caused by climate change will drive food shortages, disease, migrations and wars.”
“To assert that carbon dioxide ‘hurts nobody’s health’ is ignorant. Humans exhale carbon dioxide as a waste product. C02 is linked to myriad deleterious health ailments including respiratory conditions.”
“Billions of years of evolution have created a perfectly balanced ecosystem that sustains life as we know it. Extracting and burning fossil fuel, along with deforestation, disrupts that critical balance.”
“Climate change is the greatest world-wide threat humanity has ever faced. If we do not implement effective solutions soon, we are likely to encounter devastating social, environmental and economic consequences.”
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Arctowski Polish Antarctic Station
https://www.facebook.com/arctowski/photos/a.1689235581296088.1073741827.1689223874630592/2024895101063466/?type=3&theater
“The important thing is not to stop questioning.”
Okay. I am not going to stop questioning that statement.
Just a note to say that I appreciate the “Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup”.
I found SEPP years before I found WUWT.
(The issue I was looking into back then was the alarm raised by the Environmental Defense Fund and Citizens Action about Atrazine in the central Ohio drinking water.)
It might have been the Environmental Working Group rather than the EDF. It was a couple of decades ago. My memory at times seems to age quicker than the calendar. 😎
A sparsely distributed observational network, consisting of drifting buoys, cannot resolve the surface temperature variations in the Arctic sufficiently but satellite observations can fill in the gaps of the traditional observational network.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/ice_temp/index.uk.php
As we reach 1 month from the usual arctic sea ice minimum extent, do keep an eye on this year’s figures…
Currently extent under 2016 and giving 2007 a run for second place after 2012… sea ice concentration broken up, sea ice thickness low…
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
But … but … weren’t the figures supposed to have been 0 for sea ice some years ago?
Jump temperatures in the stratosphere in the far south.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_SH_2017.png
Why will it be cold over Hudson Bay?
http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00924/sqoa9q0jtggr.png
http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00924/qoohdhar3usk.png
‘The 1998 El Niño was followed by a La Niña cooling. Currently, there is no indication of a La Niña occurring.
It will be interesting to follow what will happen for the remainder of the year and the first part of 2018. Will the temperatures generally rise, fall, or remain about the same?’
Note that we don’t know. We know about ENSO, but we don’t know enough to predict it.
Yet, YET, climate models purport to predict weather 50 years out. As I have said many times, we don’t know enough to create climate models. I submit our not knowing the details of ENSO is ABSOLUTE PROOF that GCM/climate models CAN’T work. We don’t know what we don’t know, and we know we don’t know enough about what we do know.