By Larry Hamlin,
A recent article discussed at Watts Up With That? exposed that many of the world’s largest CO2 emitting nations are proceeding with energy policies involving the building of huge numbers of new coal plants without regard to increasing CO2 emissions completely contradicting the aims of the Paris Climate Agreement.
These nations actions clearly show the Paris Climate Agreement is meaningless in addressing global emissions and that President Trump was very wise to reject it’s oppressive provisions that were imposed on the U.S.
Supporting the story of huge new coal plant building plans by many global nations as revealed in the WUWT article is an article in the climate alarmist scheming New York Times which was forced to admit that plans are underway around the world to build over 1,600 new coal plants in the next decade with nearly half of those plants being built by Chinese Companies.
The recent WUWT article revealed that China is planning to build more than twice as many coal plants in the next decade as the U.S. has in operation today.
The New York Times article further notes:
“Over all, 1,600 coal plants are planned or under construction in 62 countries, according to Urgewald’s tally, which uses data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker portal. The new plants would expand the world’s coal-fired power capacity by 43 percent.”
“These Chinese corporations are building or planning to build more than 700 new coal plants at home and around the world, some in countries that today burn little or no coal, according to tallies compiled by Urgewald, an environmental group based in Berlin. Many of the plants are in China, but by capacity, roughly a fifth of these new coal power stations are in other countries.”
The title of the New York Times article is hilariously political because the article never explains how the Chinese building 700 new coal plants in China and around the world justifies the headline claim that “Beijing Joins Climate Fight”.
The Global Coal Plant Tracker portal mentioned in the Times article provides easy and updated access to observe the huge numbers of new coal plants that have been announced, are in pre-permitting, permitted or under construction for nations around the world. China’s new coal building plans are displayed below.
The absurdity of the Paris Climate Agreement provisions are clearly illustrated by the fact that China is allowed to increase future CO2 emissions by as much as it wants until year 2030 and even in that year no commitment to any future reduction is provided.
India will more than triple its electricity generation capability in the next decade and the majority of power plants needed to achieve this growth will utilize fossil fuels. India like China enjoys the same absurd Paris Climate Agreement pass on emissions reduction and has no CO2 reduction requirements through year 2030 with no reduction requirements provided even after that date.
Many of the world’s nations are simply ignoring the politics of flawed, failed and exaggerated climate alarmism claims which underlie the Paris Climate Agreement and proceeding to implement plans to meet their countries required future energy needs regardless of how these plans increase global CO2 emissions – and given the pathetic state of inadequate climate alarmist science that is how it should be.
Shown below are new coal plant building projects planned in Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines.
Germany, the EU’s resident climate alarmist and renewable energy activist bully, is in crisis with politically driven energy policy schemes which are incompetent and failing.
Germany has driven its electricity rates through the roof with mandated use of costly and unreliable renewables while stupidly forcing its nuclear plants to close through misguided political edict and ended up using more coal which is increasing its CO2 emissions.
The level of renewable use is now so high in Germany that serious electric grid reliability and stability issues now exist which require both fossil power plant emergency backup for failed renewable production and dictate rejecting renewable energy to ensure operation of fossil plants required for electric grid reliability and stability.
California is also experiencing the same kind of electric grid reliability and stability problems as are occurring in Germany because of our states excessive reliance on costly and unreliable renewable energy.
California Governor Brown and Senate Leader Kevin de Leon are proceeding to dictate massive and draconian costs, bureaucracy and freedom suffocating laws and regulations upon the states more than 37 million residents to achieve absolutely meaningless and completely unnecessary emissions reductions in our state.
The New York Times carried a recent story announcing that California Governor Brown will hold “the Global Climate Action summit” in the state in 2018 aimed at “upholding the goals of the Paris climate agreement” which President Trump decided to dump in June.
Governor Brown and Senate Leader Kevin de Leon have demanded and Californian’s have paid billions of dollars in Cap and Trade taxes (over $5 billion to date) and higher cost renewable energy mandated use (state electric rates 50% higher than U.S. average) to meet globally irrelevant and meaningless state greenhouse gas reduction targets established under AB 32 (year 2020 emissions at 1990 levels) and further escalated under SB 32 (year 2030 emissions 40% below 1990 levels).
Governor Brown recently traveled to China to discuss climate change issues.
However regarding this trip the governor neglected to make any mention of the huge increase concerning the building of more than 700 new coal power plants under way by China during the next ten years.
Instead and astoundingly Brown proclaimed that China is “leading” the way in fighting global climate change.
Governor Brown appears to be completely clueless and disconnected from reality in making such absurd claims and the mainstream media incredibly disingenuous in reporting such idiotic climate alarmist political gibberish.
EIA data updated through year 2015 shows that California’s renewable wind and solar generation used for electricity amounted to only about 3% of our states total energy use.
While Brown loves to tout how much renewable wind and solar generation is used in support of his climate alarmist folly to meet California’s energy needs he and other political leaders in the state grossly mislead Californian’s concerning how small these generating sources are relative to the states total energy use.
The states transportation energy sector is by far the biggest user of energy and nearly twice the size of the electricity sector accounting for more than 39% of California’s totals energy use compared to only 21% for the states electricity sector.
The states industrial energy sector accounts for more than 23% of the states total energy use and is also larger than the states electricity energy sector.
Brown and other California climate alarmist and renewable energy activist politicians tend to report the states wind and solar renewable generation contribution amount relative to just the states electricity energy sector.
This exaggerates the claimed wind and solar energy contribution by ignoring the other energy use sectors which account for 79% of the states total energy use and where the energy in these sectors is is not provided by wind and solar renewable generation.
The mainstream media further hypes and misleads the public concerning these renewable energy use exaggerations.
Governor Brown and his cronies make the same kind of exaggerations concerning the irrelevancy of California’s incredibly costly state greenhouse gas reduction targets where achieving the SB 32 escalated targets represents only about 0.4% of global emissions – a reduction that is totally irrelevant.
Compared to the avalanche of CO2 emissions growth coming in the next tens years from the world’s largest CO2 emitters, including huge increases by China who Governor Brown claimed is “leading” the global climate change fight, and given the total absence of any present or future commitments in the Paris Climate Agreement regarding such emissions growth the state of California’s emissions reduction efforts lead by Governor Brown and Senate Leader Kevin de Leon represent nothing but an incredibly bureaucratic, costly and politically contrived dog and phony show devoid of any real world relevance, importance or significance.
It is abundantly clear that President Trump got the decision on the Paris Climate Agreement right and that Governor Brown’s climate alarmist views and policy are simply clueless and completely disconnected from reality.
Is Trump going soft on Paris accord, seduced by ‘Macaroni’s welcome to La Ville Lumière?
President Donald Trump appeared to open the door to rejoining the Paris climate accord during a press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday.
In reply to a question from a French journalist on whether the U.S. president might change his mind on a June decision to withdraw America from the landmark climate agreement, Trump said: “Something could happen with respect to the Paris accord, we’ll see what happens.”
Video clip with Trump statement is on the top of the page
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/13/emmanuel-macron-says-obvious-indispensable-have-exchanges-donald/
i’m guessing that like any good businessman, he’s hedging his bets somewhat. In an infinite universe, something might change in the accords that would trigger reconsideration, but I’m thinking “snowball meets he!!” is the real situation.
I hope Trump stays rock solid, steadfast, resolute, committed, unwavering and faithful to his original decision, else the common lunacy will prevail.
That’s the way he answers every question…he doesn’t want to answer right then
No one ever listens to what Trump actually says – in this case, he has said from the first that if the treaty was renegotiated so that Uncle Sugar wasn’t being asked to fork over all that cash, and if China, India, and the US were all treated the same and put on a level playing field, then he’d be glad to rejoin.
Of course the Euro’s said immediately that there would be NO renegotiation under any circumstances, and China of course has no interest in all in being on any “level playing field”.
So it’s a very safe statement for Trump to make, and allows him to truthfully say that he is willing to rejoin, if circumstances change.
Watch the video. See the look on the French presidents face. They have done a deal for sure.
I suspect Mr. Trump wants more public discussion about the CAGW et al, for the same reasons the alarmists want less, as evidenced by their attempts to shut it down by marginalizing/demonizing skeptics and declaring “the debate” over; He thinks the alarmist case (before the public) is very weak, and simply will not hold up to scrutiny . .
If one ponders how low the hypothetical “crisis” consistently polls on long lists of potential concerns, after decades of scare mongering hype and officious bravado, I think one gets a sense of how worried the Prez is about stringing the alarmists along, so to speak. Which is to say not in the slightest . . But, he prefers they be forced to continue to try to justify the accord from hell, for a while longer, since it’s essentially impossible, it seems to me.
Somethings definitely going to happen to the ‘Accord'” and fast.
Tramp likes to be seen as victorious, in this one he has a winning hand, so it might be the case that by stringing it as long as possible, all the other ‘local difficulties’ he daily encounters in the USA might get less media attention. As far as the ‘Trumpism’ is concerned the Europeans are not interested in the emails shenanigans, just the NATO and the climate change, while the Russia-thing is no more than a tedious farce.
Perhaps Trump should come more often to Europe, about one visit a month might do the job.
If I were Trump (and I’m not that smart) I would offer to rejoin the Paris Accord if the other members were willing to separate the payments required to compensate countries trying to meet the obligations from the obligations themselves. There is a big difference between getting money to meet your obligations and meeting your obligations. I expect Trump will want to focus on the latter (meeting obligations) having removed the US from the former (just making payments).
If they’re not careful, he may have the EU chipping in to help pay for the visits eventually, Vuc . . it’s very pricey business ya know ; )
He wants to sell LNG. The problem is the price is too high. However, if the climatistas specify that gas is OK in the Paris agreement then Trump gets what he wants and they get what they want. Its never been about the climate. No-one cares. It’s about THE MONEY and EGO! Greed and status.
I think this is his way of defusing the conversation so that tensions do not rise. Note how he has done similar multiple times. For example, look how he gave Comey that hug early on in the Oval Office. Then he further schmoozed Comey with flattering words. A few months later Comey was gone. It is not a bad strategy as it gives Trump time to make his final assessments on his decision making, while keeping potential opponents off balance.
Trump just says the first thing that comes into his mind, “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing”. See http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-09/did-trumps-g20-performance-indicate-us-decline-as-world-power/8691538
Coal is King. It will remain so. Simply its cheaper than ANY other energy source if you need synchronous inertia eg you have want an electricity grid. People forget the grid in China and India is new. The Chinese are going to extend “The Grid” throughout SE Asia. This means BIG turbines must be built to get enough momentum to synch the asynchronous AC power signal. Wind and solar are NOT going to cut it at an affordable price.
Batteries may eventually get big enough. They will have to store 10s of GWHrs to be useful for power stations. As we do not have such devices, nor the 10 years of operational experience using them, its a wet dream, likely to be surpassed by new technology eg hydrogen fuel cells, pressure seeps and anti-matter generators etc.
There is no point in a large battery if you have a relatively small device that runs emissions free and produces up to 100 MW.
Then there is the hidden value in plant derived matter, the carbon and volatiles (oxygenated and oxygen free hydrocarbons).
Anyone who thought we could run out of oil needs to work out what will happen when it becomes possible to easily separate the volatiles from plant matter. Last time I looked coal is derived from plants.
Your belief is contrary to the facts of how little worldwide coal exists. The entire world has approximately 50 years of coal remaining, at current prices and existing technology.
Coal is only economic if it can be mined and brought to the surface at fairly low cost. Indeed, coal must exist in a seam at least 2 feet thick, and at less than 4000 feet depth, or it is stranded, left in place. CalTech’s Professor Rutledge gives an excellent overview of world coal reserves in his 2011 paper. (“Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms,” International Journal of Coal Geology, 85 (2011) 23-33 ). He paints a grim picture. Roughly, there are 500 billion tonnes of mine-able coal left in the world, and the existing consumption rate is 7.8 billion tonnes per year (Note, that was in 2011. It’s now up to 9 billion tonnes per year production). This provides approximately 50 years of coal remaining. Note also that the more coal plants are consuming coal, and the annual consumption increases, the years remaining gets shorter much faster. We will likely run out of economic coal in less than 40 years.
Roger, you have only a very superficial understanding of what reserves are, and when a company will release reserves for a particular deposit.
Once you have about 40 years of reserves it makes no economic sense to do the exploration and technical study work required to be able to declare a reserve.
We have always have about 50 years of reserves of coal on a worldwide basis. We will keep adding reserves when the existing ones are slowly depleted.
People have been claiming we will run out of coal for the last 200 years…..
Dean, coal is a mineral resource that has been studied exhaustively, for decades, and all over the world. It is that important to the world. To suggest that my understanding of coal reserves is superficial is just incorrect.
See the government figures, not the commercial company figures. Pay close attention to the figures from USGS. Also, please read Dr. Rutledge’s article, and see if you can find error there. Pay particular attention to the part where Rutledge describes the history of coal deposit estimates and ultimate production from them. The coal runs out long before the estimates said it would or should.
There is little doubt that vast deposits of coal exist. There is also little doubt that we could, given a high enough price, pull that coal out of the ground. There is absolutely no doubt that nobody will mine that coal and sell it for power production purposes. The world price for coal must soar to make that happen.
Reserves are only declared as reserves when lots of drilling has been done. Reserves help prop up balance sheets to sustain borrowings. If you need not borrow there is no point in drilling beyond a 10 year buffer to satisfy a lender on a capex or justify an opex.
The inferred resource of lignite in the Gippsland Basin alone is 1,600 Billion tons.
There is 3,000 m of 2-10 metre bituminous coal seams under the lignite. So double that number. The Ackaringa Basin has 55 Bt. I could go on and on.
Can it all be extracted? Not today. In the future robots will mine at great depths and we will learn how to safely use these seams in-situ.
Sorry but Roger is incorrect – the others are right. “Reserves” are often misconstrued to mean the total size of the resource. There are probable reserves, proven reserves, likely reserves, economic reserves. Each has a different meaning. I have taken to telling everyone that, at the right price, reserves of anything are essentially infinite. Right now, coal is at a very low price – coal is worth the same or less than pea gravel. Double the price and I have no doubt you will double your reserves.
You also neglects that reserves below 4,000 feet are exploitable using underground coal gasification.
Be that as it may, coal is most definitely not king – natural gas is dethroning coal and will likely be the king for the foreseeable future. It offers numerous, bankable, advantages over coal, and Shale 2.0 is likely to only increase those advantages and reduce costs. I believe we are just starting the shale revolution, and that our reserves are immense and growing.
To the writer of this article: I’m sure you have some good things to say, but the article is so full of punctuation errors as to be impossible to read without becoming terminally distracted. I read perhaps a third of it, then gave up. The main problem is possessives: it’s means it is, not belonging to it (no pronoun has any punctuation); nations’ needs the apostrophe (nations is merely a plural); countries’ needs the apostrophe (countries is merely a plural); state’s needs the apostrophe (states is merely a plural); and Californian’s needs to ditch and pitch the apostrophe, since the writer wants the plural, which is Californians. There are many more such errors. Please have someone proof your work; I’m sure you make good points, but you drive people away with poor punctuation.
You never want to bring a coal plant to a climate fight.
Worse yet to bring a nuke plant.
You must wield a solar panel and turbine blade to be a climate warrior these days. (Of course, “climate warrior” does not necessarily imply “environmental ecologist”.)
Climate change conferences are abstinence meetings attended by hedonists.
Copulating to preserve their virginity.
And to think that Hillary Clinton would have put the whole US in the position of California.
!
Well put!
Yes, on a suicidal path of self destruction, the trajectory set by Obama.
Apparently, Hillary IS the President of California. That state is so not normal, that people are leaving by the tens of thousands.
And I am sure that by 2030 the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO2 will be little changed, but global emissions will have increased substantially.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/mean:12/derivative/normalise/mean:5/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1958/normalise
Estimates of the energy situation in 2030 that do not realize the profound revolution that is surely coming, motivated in part by lower emissions, but mostly by lower energy prices that are part of any molten salt nuclear technology. And I consider anyone who believes that the majority of automobiles on the road wil still be non-electric to be blind to the obvious coming revolution in auto technology. Failing to see the obvious is making all of these so-called expert estimates of the future laughingly nonsensical.
The best estimates put CO2 emissions from transportation at only around 14%. Even if every automobile switched over to electric vehicles their batteries would most likely be charged from fossil fuel electrical generation plants. And the environmental impact of harvesting that much lithium (for the batteries) would create a huge environmental impact for certain regions. Electric cars are a feel good measure for certain individual, but do not really solve any energy problems.
molten salt nuclear?bet my sweet bippy that will be twice the price of a trad BWR…
Arthur I guess you missed this
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/20/tesla-car-battery-production-releases-as-much-co2-as-8-years-of-gasoline-driving/
“Failing to see the obvious is making all of these so-called expert estimates of the future laughingly nonsensical.”
Seeing imaginary things and calling them “obvious” is nonsensical, but not laughingly so. It’s pathetic.
Prediction is hard, especially about the future. link link We have no more reason to believe you than we do to believe the ‘experts’. Just saying.
Arthur – agreed. But even if electric cars were no better from an energy point of view they would still trash the piston engine in passenger cars.
And banking on a technology to save the world (which doesn’t yet exist at production scales) is a fools errand
California currently uses 285,000 – 290,000 GWh of electricity per year. (the 21%)
To electrify the state they would need to produce 5 times that or 1,425,000 – 1,450,000 GWh per year (given Todays needs) and the transportation industry could FLIP the High Usage times into the night period when cars would be garaged and recharging overnight
Reality check time: I live in Canada. If every car on the road today (excluding SUVs and station wagons) were converted to electricity, it would reduce our CO2 emissions by 5%. Canada produces 1.5% of the world’s CO2 emissions, so that conversion would reduce global CO2 emissions by 0.075%. What kind of “revolution” would that be?
molten salt tech will happen someday, but not by 2030. I think it’s better to build it into estimates of the energy situation circa 2100, I think it’ll take at least that long for it to become a widely used system.
IOW, it ain’t gonna happen in the lifetimes of most of the people reading this post.
“Estimates of the energy situation in 2030 that …”
The natural number line begins 1, 2, 3, …
You need a ” 1 ” in your statement:
Estimates of the energy situation in 2130 that … There, fixed it for you.
Molten salt seems a little like the battery revolution, always 5-10 years away. Never quite arriving.
Let’s call it a walkabout revolution. Canada is a big country if you take out cars.
China is building lots of nuclear capacity and recently banned anymore wind turbines, since they “destabilize the grid.” It’s not clear how many of those new coal plants are replacing existing coal plants being torn down because they produce too much pollution. China is extremely concerned about real, not fake, pollution, given the state of the air in their major cities. Germany is shutting down her nuclear plants and replacing them with coal plants. Somehow this action drew no complaints from the warmist crowd. Apparently, if you talk the party line, you can do whatever you please.
” recently banned anymore wind turbines, since they “destabilize the grid.”
…
Except Gansu will grow to 20,000 MW by 2020.
…
Oh, and there are five other wind-mega projects already approved by the Chinese government.
20 gigawatts of power that can’t be relied on to be continuous. Let’s hope their grid management can figure that one out…
I think China’s wind power could provide excess KWHs to sell to the neighboring grids while virtue signalling to the world (for as long as the turbines last) hoping that the age of pinwheels and mirrors will come to an end before the hardware is junked.
And they were already in the pipeline. Tell us about the new ones.
Let’s see if those actually get built. If they do get built, these wind farms will need some form of conventional power plant back-up, they all do, there’s no way around that. Just look at Germany bringing on line 12 coal fired units to keep the lights on in support of its glorious “energiewende”. 30% of its electricity from solar and wind, proudly nuclear free, with at least a dozen coal fired units to keep the green delusion going.
Given that China has no oil or gas reserves to speak of, those Gansu back-up units will be coal fired.
Meanwhile China is on the books for building some 700 of the 1600 coal fired units worldwide. And the Paris Accord says that’s OK.
Beautiful examples of China as the new greenie world leader…., leading by example.
I get the feeling that “alternative truth” rules, here, but someone might want to see the real Chinese plans:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/02/whats-the-future-of-chinas-coal-power-plants/
Author: Lauri Myllyvirta works at Greenpeace International to support the organization’s coal campaign work in priority countries, with a focus on air pollution issues and analysis of energy and CO2 trends.
And I bet this chick jets all over the world, riding in gas and diesel powered taxis, buses and trains, all while using thousands upon thousands of hours of electricity generated by burning coal. She is just so special.
And yet China is STILL building more coal fired power plants, no matter how much greendiots pretend otherwise. So is India. And Malaysia. etc etc. Coal, it works and THAT is why everyone will keep using it.
(Waiting for Griff to repeat that “China has cancelled the building of 100 coal plants” to show their dedication to the fight against global warming.)
You just did it for him.
CO2 has no direct effect on climate, but it does have an effect on plant growth and is essential to biological functions.
Je Suis Carbon.
[ As a Carbon Based Life Form, I stand with Carbon. ]
+1
+10
Covfefe carbon.
You know, you might have hit on something there. Short, catchy, true, and has a bit of a Leftist appeal as well.
….and I have fairies at the bottom of my garden.
Everybody has fairies at the bottom of their gardens, and they thrive on CO2! 😉
“Californian’s”? “It’s” instead of “its” (and vice versa)? And so on, with dreary regularity. Does anyone ever proof-read these essays? For years, WUWT has been unable to pluralize nouns correctly or properly distinguish contractions from possessives, not to mention failing to catch omitted or doubled words. Leads to some gruesome and puzzling sentences. Odd for a site that champions accuracy in all things.
It’s also failed to provide the name of the Guest Blogger.
“PaidByFossilFuel”?
Those look like sentence fragments to me. You seem to have run afoul of Muphry’s Law. 🙂
nice!
Huh?
The Mods are moderators, not editors.
PS For years I’ve noticed many post authors correct and thank commenters who point out such typos and grammatical errors. (Particularly when such are offered to help rather than just be critical.)
“Wa;run”? Shouldn’t that be “Wa; run”? 😎
Wa;run
There is little need to correct simple errors in a text.
When the error changes the meaning, then a correction needs to be made.
For many folks, English is a 2nd or 3rd language — and mostly they get things right.
The majority of mistakes are made by Americans. Most have gone to public schools.
Please excuse them for the no not what they do.
Most have gone to American public schools. Depending on where you live, the local public school runs anywhere between crappy and truly excellent. link
If you want to see how public education should be run, check out Finland. link
I would imagine that many of the mistakes depend on the time of day of the person making the comment. As in late in the day where someone may be a bit tired, or just a bit relaxed from imbibing a favorite drink or three.
As your comment demonstrates, most people overestimate their ability to write. My other half works as an editor for a major publishing house and spends a large part of her working life attempting to correct the mangled prose of professional writers. Even after months of rewriting, editing and proof reading no book ever goes to print error free; it would be foolish to expect that much from a blog post.
The above was addressed to The Great Wa;run; comment nesting only seems to work intermittently.
I think that may be a bug in wordpress, I have noticed it happening at other places that run it.
In the space of a couple of days I can do a 10 page write up on something, then spend six hours proofing and correcting, THEN hand it over to Wifey and she finds a bunch of booboos. Don’t even get me started on the quality of “writing” displayed by major media outlets. And then we move on to the spoken word. I long ago quit watching “TV” news because of the rampant, college induced verbal illiteracy spewing forth from the omni-directional sludge pump.
Thus endeth the rant.
There is accuracy and then there is precision.
You are correct. Hitting that standing deer at 120 meters is accuracy. Hitting that running deer at 120 meters is precision. Lots of people can not grasp that small difference.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/20/business/energy-environment/how-renewable-energy-is-blowing-climate-change-efforts-off-course.html
That pathetic NYT article sets some kind of record for obfuscation and sheer, blind wishful thinking. First, the article starts off reminding us of the propaganda announcement earlier this year that China ” halted plans for more than 100 new coal-fired power plants this year.” Okay, got that. 100 fewer plants than they were planning to build, if you can believe the Chinese government. The announced government figures which show flattening of coal consumption already are being questioned as not jibing with other metrics like GDP and electricity consumption which are apparently harder to fudge.
Here’s the wishful thinking:
“The addition of domestic capacity, though large on paper, does not mean there will be growth in coal consumption. The current coal plants are operating far below capacity because demand for coal-generated power has slowed considerably.”
So let me get this straight. China is adding domestic capacity, but that doesn’t mean there will be growth in coal consumption because current plants are operating below capacity? Oooookay, if you say so. So how many plants are they adding?
Here is where the masterful obfuscation (actually, plain bald-faced concealment) comes in. Hiroko doesn’t tell us how many plants they’re adding. Here’s how she handles that delicate little detail:
She tells us that China is “building or planning to build more than 700 new coal plants at home and around the world” She tells us tells us “roughly a fifth of these new coal power stations are in other countries”. (Doesn’t even use a number, writes out “a fifth”!)
Gee, Hiroko, I know math is hard but one fifth of 700 is 140. That means 560 new coal plants are being built or planned to be built in China. Your (well hidden) numbers, not mine. That’s after cancelling the 100 plants. That cancellation looks pretty puny now, doesn’t it?
And you mean to tell me you can make any kind of realistic, valid argument that coal consumption won’t increase after you build 560 new coal plants? I bet she can’t even keep a straight face when she types out this stuff.
PS The EIA figures say in 2015 the entire coal power plant fleet in the US was 427 plants. And China is building 560 new plants? And they’re not going to burn more coal? C’mon!
Just to be fair, a percentage of those new plants are replacing older plants that are being retired.
Regardless, the total number of coal plants is going to be increased by hundreds over the next decade or so.
We must all marvel at the respect and understanding these lefty politicians have for the eighth grade engineering skills being applied to renewable energy. I am sure that they are impressed with the great success that South Australia is having. Bless their little hearts.
“Bless their little hearts”
But fear their peanut size brain that cannot comprehend the science of global warming facts
They are delusional.
The question we have to ask (with apologies to Edward Albee) is: who is afraid of global warming?
It doesn’t look like anyone outside of the US and the UK is, and not very many there either.
In fact, the more you look at how everyone is behaving, it is very hard to conclude that anyone believes in global warming at all. If they did they would not be acting the way they do.
And that includes Governor Brown, who appears to be on the brink of taking some very expensive and economically disastrous measures which will not affect global warming at all.
It is very weird, this combination of measures which are furiously advocated, but which are according to the theory which the advocates say they believe, totally ineffective. And also the failure to advocate measures which, if they believed what they claim to, are the necessary ones to take to get emissions down fast enough and big enough.
Inexplicable on the basis that everyone really believes what they claim to.
These countries lie all the time. There is no effective punishment. To sign onto such a deal is illogical.
Illogical, yes. More so, masochistic.
Allow me to differ – what all the rest of these countries have done was extremely logical, and not masochistic at all! You just need to accept what the deal REALLY was, from their POV. And by that I mean what they ALL understood it was, Everyone involved, even Jerry Brown.
This was NEVER a deal that intended to actually do anything about “climate” or “temperature”. This was a deal that had 2 primary goals – A) allow all of the respective governments to take even greater control of energy production than they do already, and through “climate taxes” or whatever they wanted to call them, divert a large part of the revenue stream to their own purposes. and B) Institutionalize a way for just about every country on the planet to lodge a claim against the US Treasury, which was gonna be on the hook for ALL of the actual cash outlays. (which were mostly gonna be bribes to people like Erdogan)
ALL of the rest was just blah blah blah, the come on patter of the grifter, meant to throw smoke and mirrors in the way of revealing just what an awesome nest of corruption this deal was.
YES EVERY GOVERNMENT IN THE WORLD THAT WAS INVOLVED IN THIS IS CORRUPT.
That’s the world we live in. Believe NOTHING that anyone in any government says, for it is safe to assume it is a Lie. (if they say the sun will rise tomorrow morning, confirm by your own observation before believing it) Why are so many coal plants being planned? Because NO ONE every intended to shut down coal use except for a few idiotic and culturally suicidal Eurocrats. That’s why the deal was written to specifically allow them to do that.
Everyone keeps being surprised that when you look closely at this deal, it was complete and total fraud all the way through. Well it is, it always has been, and it always will be. We are not dealing simply with climate “true believers”, they are the useful idiots, but we are in fact dealing with what (if it had worked) could honestly be called one of the greatest financial criminal conspiracies in human history.
The people who believe in AGW caused by CO2 are the people who are denying science. The science of thermalization and the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution of molecule energy explain why CO2 does not now, has never had and will never have a significant effect on climate.
Failing to recognize that CO2 has no significant effect on climate is an egregious mistake but is dwarfed by the potential disasters of ignoring what actually does. Discover the three factors in an equation which matches the measured average global temperature trend 98% 1895-2016. http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com
Dan, thank you for the excellent link. Having given it a quick read I think they’ve missed a point. Although they mention the emissivity of clouds (0.5) they do not mention the mechanism for this. Put another way, I think there is enough liquid water in the sky to warrant taking into account the frequencies at which liquid water absorbs/emits I looked into this but as it was some years ago I’m fuzzy on the detail. As I remember it there were bands where liquid water overlapped CO2 that were not covered by water vapour.
The point I’m making is that taking this effect into account diminishes the size of the effect CO2 has in the atmosphere at altitudes where clouds occur. If this is correct it means that CO2 has even less of an effect on climate than it would have had if there were no clouds.
Cloud emissivity varies a lot depending on cloud type, etc., with a rough average of 0.5 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_model
It was determined from measurements. The link in Wiki talks about it.
Bulk liquid water is opaque to IR & has absorb & emissivity of nearly 1 (about the same as black dirt).
Thank you so much Dan. That’ll keep me busy for a while!
For every exception, there is an evolving risk of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (e.g. conflicts) and climate change (e.g. wars).
So, how long before the ball of yarns unravels and likely explodes with global consequences?
“ball of yarns”—very good!
That would a multi colored object, undoubtedly.
Maybe that yarn will be a sweater if the global temperature shoots up and catches the model mean. Meanwhile it’s just the cat playing in the yarn basket.
“New York Times: World’s nations building huge numbers of new coal plants despite emissions growth”
Fox Butterfield, is that you?
A former reporter for the New York Times, Fox Butterfield, became a bit of a laughingstock in the 1990s for publishing a series of articles addressing the supposed quandary of how crime rates could be falling during periods when prison populations were expanding. A number of critics sarcastically explained that crimes rates were falling because bad guys were behind bars and invented the term “Butterfield Effect” to describe the failure of someone to put 2 + 2 together.
https://www.cato.org/blog/fox-butterfield-effect-laffer-curve
I wonder how many headline writers are being laid off at the NYT? It seems like a function critical for the Grey Lady’s propaganda effort. “As Beijing Joins Climate Fight, …”. That’s the desired takeaway. Relatively few will actually read the story. The desired effect is to emphasize that even countries like China are embracing The Climate Fight while, tragically, Trump thumbs his nose at settled science and “The gravest challenge we face”. Sad!
The media tends to withhold inconvenient facts and dwell on others which fit the agenda. Just follow the money to understand who writes the scripts.
On 23 June 2016 I was with a tour bus of geologists driving through southern Germany. We stopped at a very large open cast lignite mine (Miocene and Oligocene coal beds), look on Google Maps!, and drove past a very large coal burning facility not far away. Keep Calm and Keep On Digging!
ETF KOL is up and still cheap! Time to Keep Calm and Keep ON BUYING KOL.
Yee Haa!
As of this summer, the re-opened [de-mothballed] German lignite mines and the new ones being being brought on-line can not yet meet domestic coal demand. Guess where the coal is coming from in the mean time: the US. Guess why Peabody and the other producers have come out of Chapter 11..
Said in passing, lignite is by far the dirtiest coal available, but Germany has the stuff in spades.
So why not do like the Chinese pretend and use what you have – with uber hypocrite “Crocodile Tears” Merkel doing the political “energiewende” green washing.
Sorry for duplicate post, but:
US coal exports up 58% YTD over 2016. To Europe up 77% (to Germany up 94%). To China up 494%!
https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/pdf/t7p01p1.pdf
To sign the Paris agreement was easy as it committed countries to almost nothing but allowed them to boast of their green credentials.
Adequate stable supplies are needed to support both people and business needs. Lowest cost is an attractive proposition.
Reducing fossil fuel production through reducing consumption, increased efficiency, and lower reducing prices of alternative sources is a win-win. There may even be an impact on climate – although mitigation may be the best solution. After all.’s said supply is limited – the only question being when existing fuels increase in scarcity and price (or run out),
But it reduction (other than forced by markets, prices and availability) requires coherent and honest international cooperation, not the charade that was Paris
Exactly right. With respect to coal, not as much is remaining as many would think.
The fact is, a relatively small amount of worldwide coal exists. The entire world has approximately 40-50 years of coal remaining, at current prices and existing technology.
Coal is only economic if it can be mined and brought to the surface at fairly low cost. Indeed, coal must exist in a seam at least 2 feet thick, and at less than 4000 feet depth, or it is stranded, left in place. CalTech’s Professor Rutledge gives an excellent overview of world coal reserves in his 2011 paper. (“Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms,” International Journal of Coal Geology, 85 (2011) 23-33 ). He paints a grim picture. Roughly, there are 500 billion tonnes of mine-able coal left in the world, and the existing consumption rate is 7.8 billion tonnes per year (Note, that was in 2011. It’s now up to 9 billion tonnes per year production). This provides approximately 50 years of coal remaining. Note also that as more coal power plants are consuming coal, and the annual consumption increases, the years remaining decreases much faster. The world will likely run out of economic coal in less than 40 years.
Roger,
What do you expect to achieve by writing your contrary essays?
Several people who know how companies calculate reserves have tried to educate you.
Why no thank them and issue a correction?
Then start work on your nuclear misconceptions.
Geoff
His goal is propaganda and distraction, not education.
“Roughly, there are 500 billion tonnes of mine-able coal left in the world”
That is an estimate. And many previous such estimates of fossil sources have turned out to be gross underestimations. Then there’s the “mine-able” part – no acknowledgement of likely technology advancement. Hence all the dire pre-fracking “peak oil” warnings.
No, thanks.
Geoff Sherrington , if you read more closely, you will discover that what I wrote is exactly the same as those writing on about economic reserves.
And for those who do disagree with me, why would I want to join them? They are wrong, so why must I be wrong, also?
I have no nuclear misconceptions. I have only firm realities. The facts do not lie.
Here’s a fact: just today, South Korea announced they are halting construction on their two new nuclear plants. Perhaps you would like to dispute that? After all, if Sowell said it, it must be wrong!!!!
Thanks for the laugh. As usual.
Could we be heading towards peak coal?
One thing is clear.
All those nations who signed Paris and are building new coal plants don’t seem to give a “shinola” about “going green to reduce CO2”.
They are pretending to go green to get our green.
Who is the author of this piece?
The author of this piece is Guest Blogger
I wonder what his friends call him — Guest?, … Blog?, … GB?
(^_^)
Kenji ? Good Boy !
Maybe Guest Blogger and Reality Winner can get hitched when they let her out of jail.
The author is Larry Hamlin.
Hamlin ==> Thank you. Nicely done, btw.
(I have a weird personal thing about anonymity. Don’t mind me….)
Coal exports from Hampton Roads, Virginia, continue to climb in February
Houston (Platts)–6 Mar 2017 527 pm EST/2227 GMT
“Coal exports from terminals in Virginia’s Hampton Roads region totaled 2.8 million st in February, up 8.2% from the prior month and up 50.7% from the year-ago month, according to export data released Monday by the Virginia Maritime Association.
It was the highest monthly total since March 2015, and the fifth straight month of higher exports, as higher seaborne prices increased demand for US thermal and metallurgical coals.
At the three individual terminals in Hampton Roads, Lambert’s Point, also known as Pier 6, exported 1.16 million st in February, up 0.5% from January and up 23.5% from last year.
It was the also highest monthly total for the Norfolk, Virginia, terminal — which is owned and operated by Norfolk Southern — since March 2015”
Coal use may be on the decline in the U.S. but it is not declining in the rest of the world. I live in Southeast Virginia. I see the rail cars filled with coal coming to the Port of Norfolk from West Virginia, Western Virginia and Pennsylvania on a regular basis. When you visit Norfolk you can see the mountains of coal waiting to be loaded on ships and sent to China and India, As the above article points out, coal exports are increasing dramatically. Maybe our coal miners can help with our balance of trade deficit.
In any event, with or without the Paris Climate Agreement, coal will continue to be used by the U.S. and other countries. This isn’t going to change as long as coal provides a relatively inexpensive energy source. Jerry Brown and other AGW fanatics have no chance to reverse this trend in the near future. Let’s face it, Climate Change fanatics only want to see the Capitalistic economy replaced by a socialist economy.
I have some problems with Donal Trump’s style but he is dead right in getting us out of the “Paris Accords”
US coal exports up 58% YTD over 2016. To Europe up 77% (to Germany up 94%). To China up 494%!
Bookmark this page, looks like it is maintained and updated regularly:
https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/pdf/t7p01p1.pdf
Thanks brian356. That is an amazing chart. In addition to the countries you mentioned – France +214% and our largest European coal exports go to The Netherlands 3.3 million short tons YTD which is +29%. France is complaining about the U.S. leaving the Paris Accords and yet they have substantially increased their coal imports from the U.S. I alway thought the Netherlands operated on “wind” power. I obviously was wrong.
Who is voting this stuff(ed shirt) in? You better mobilize the Deplorables next election. They must be growing in number. If all were treated equally in this world the UN would have ordered troops in to intervene in South Australia, California and Germany to restore order and end abuse of its citizens.
I don’t think Brown is clueless.
I believe he wants to destroy his states economy.
There is no other intelligent explanation for this wanton finiacial destruction.
The ultimate aim is to inflict anarchy on the country and replace the constitution with a dictatorship from the smoking rubble.
If people are comfortable and optimistic this cannot be achieved.
Scratch any macro left mentality and you will find a belief that the masses are to stupid to have a say in who governs them.
Steve: I realize that there are numerous individuals (including it seems yourself) who truly believe that climate alarmists and fossil fuels bashers really want to destroy the U.S. economy or that of an individual state. I don’t think however that this is the case.
Instead, I will suggest that the somewhat radical thinkers like Jerry Brown, Al Gore and others are confusing their destructive belief systems for transformative ones. They want to completely overhaul society until it fits their world view–a society which they think is better. History is replete with examples where radical thinking and beliefs are imposed on societies with the best of intentions only to turn out disastrous. I believe that this is the case here. They cannot understand the notion that they and their follows could be going down a road to hell paved with good intentions.
The renewable energy and climate alarmist pushers like Brown and Gore are so radically blinded by their belief system that they are totally incapable of accepting any constructive criticism of it. One could argue with them until you are blue in the face in an attempt to make Brown and Gore understand the shortcomings of wind and solar energy, including the poor energy density, toxic waste, intermittency and unreliability issues. Their blind devotion is so complete that only the visible damage to society from the imposition of their beliefs MIGHT cause them to rethink their positions–and maybe not even then. Did Hitler ever admit that he was wrong? The ability of the radical thinkers to sweet-talk entire societies into following them down this possible path to self-destruction is what makes them so dangerous.
Brown and Gore are engaging in what they believe is a good-versus-evil religious holy war without any cognitive ability on their part to listen to or understand the problems with the “good” that are emanating from the other side. The critics of climate alarmism and renewables are just too evil.
Wars can start this way, and that is what Brown and Gore believe they are fighting here.
Spot on, CD. Humans are incredibly irrational. For proof of this one needs look no further that religion.
Please excuse typo. ‘than’, not ‘that’
The typo was the least of your transgressions.
I think that Gov Brown likes the rock star status of being a leader who helped save the world. He wants this as his legacy as does Al Gore and some of the others. They will be in for a big surprise in a few years time, imo.
The reality is that the climate change we have been experiencing is caused by the sun and the oceans over which Mankind has no control. There is plenty of scientific rational to support the idea that the climate sensiviy of CO2 is zero. The AGW conjecture is based upon a fabled radiant greenhouse effect that has not been observed anywhere in the solar system. The radiant greenhouse effect is hence science fiction as must be the AGW conjecture. Many countries live in the real world and are trying to meet energy needs as cheaply as possible and for them coal make sense. The USA needs to take actiion to reduce our annual trade deficit by reducing imports including fossil fuel.
or by increasing exports of fossil fuels
Maybe the Chinese know that our climate scientists don’t really know statistics all that well
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3000932
This guest essay is written by Larry Hamlin.
Good post, and don’t let the grammar polis get you down!
Thanks.
I am concerned about critical deceptions and distortions of climate alarmists and renewable energy activists that are driving governments to misallocate and waste trillions of dollars in global resources that should be directed toward real world problems of poverty, inadequate health care and education.
I have little concern about apostrophes.
I’m totally onboard, brah! I have to admit that on occasion I am a grammar nazi, though not as much as I used to be.
Apostrophes are for wimps
I don’t know! Properly used, they can be quite powerful. Not that I did here, look, a squirrel!!!!
Good read. Keep swinging out in California. It’s looked homeless before and turned around. We fight long odds because we can not do otherwise.
See, this just goes to prove again, still, that people based in reality go with what works. Coal works. Now if EPA and environazis will get out of the way and allow advances in emissions scrubbing/capture to be used and improved upon we can all MOVE ON with our lives.
Buy Coal shares.
It’s all about the cost to produce steam.
Everything runs on steam in China and in every coal-fired power station Worldwide.
Energy Content and Combustion Efficiency of Fuels for producing steam:
Coal/ton/energy content Btu/sales unit = 27,000,000; Combustion Efficiency = 90.3%
Natural Gas/MMBtu/energy content Btu/sales unit = 1,000,000; Combustion Efficiency = 85.7%
Forget all others including nuclear!
700 is wrong . . . China is planning to build over 1500 new coal power stations in the coming decade.
The West is pathologically stupid and China has a credible plan to rule the industrial World with coal within a decade thanks to AGW insanity which has provided them with the perfect political and business setting for domination.
My Chinese associates are rolling on the floor in uncontrollable laughter.
So Westerners sit back and enjoy the ride to hell in a coal cart.
The fact is, a relatively small amount of worldwide coal exists. The entire world has approximately 40-50 years of coal remaining, at current prices and existing technology.
Coal is only economic if it can be mined and brought to the surface at fairly low cost. Indeed, coal must exist in a seam at least 2 feet thick, and at less than 4000 feet depth, or it is stranded, left in place. CalTech’s Professor Rutledge gives an excellent overview of world coal reserves in his 2011 paper. (“Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms,” International Journal of Coal Geology, 85 (2011) 23-33 ). He paints a grim picture. Roughly, there are 500 billion tonnes of mine-able coal left in the world, and the existing consumption rate is 7.8 billion tonnes per year (Note, that was in 2011. It’s now up to 9 billion tonnes per year production). This provides approximately 50 years of coal remaining. Note also that as more coal power plants are consuming coal, and the annual consumption increases, the years remaining decreases much faster. The world will likely run out of economic coal in less than 40 years.
Rubbish.
There’s 1.2 trillion tonnes of recoverable coal Worldwide and growing each year.
Well over 100-years at current rates.
That’s not including brown-coal for which boiler technology is fully mature with high efficiency (refer Victoria in AU).
Roger enjoy your ride in the coal cart to you know where . . .
The Chinese are counting on you remaining delusional.
Warren Blair, the world’s coal experts would laugh at your comment. They know the coal is there, but simply not profitable to mine at current prices. Note well, Mr. Blair, the number of coal mines that closed in the UK because of that very fact. Note also, and note it well, Mr. Blair, that Germany ran out of economic coal years ago. The German government chose (and still chooses) to keep the coal mines operating while subsidizing the coal production. Without the subsidy, the mines would close in a heartbeat.
The issue is one of economics, not how many tonnes of coal are in the ground.
This is very well-known in coal circles. There is no dispute about it, no debate about it.
Facts are like that.
Repeating a lie doesn’t make it true.
Yea, you gots to repeat it LOUDLY!!! Just ask Goering.
The last deep mined coal plants in Germany close this year: one is being converted to a pumped storage device.
so it is only open cast lignite which survives in Germany, the deep mines having closed due to cost.
Re: coal as a fuel for power plants:
The grim fact is that coal, that mainstay of electric power generation world-wide, is in shorter supply than most people know. In fact, several reputable sources now state that world economic reserves of coal will be exhausted in roughly 60 to 70 years – and that is if no increase in current consumption occurs. Yet, growing economies in several countries are increasing their coal consumption year-over-year. China and India are on that list. It is entirely conceivable that coal will run out in less than 50 to 60 years. My estimate is 30 to 40 years. (economic reserves are not the same as proven reserves. Economic reserves are what can be mined at current prices with proven, current technology. Proven reserves are much higher than economic reserves)
What then, are the alternatives? From Yogi’s famous quote about predictions, it may be futile to make predictions. It was only 135 years ago when no one had electricity, because the first generators connected to a grid were started in approximately 1880. Only 72 years ago, the first atomic energy was created – and that was a bomb, not a power plant. How, then, can one predict the future of energy supplies 100 or 200 years into the future?
One thing we can do is examine the existing energy mix, and see what will be available in 100 years. We note that power is generated today by hydroelectricity from water flowing from dams, by burning natural gas in power plants, by burning coal in power plants, a small amount by burning oil in power plants, some is by nuclear fission in power plants, and a small amount by renewables such as geothermal, wind, and solar. There are also some very small experimental plants for ocean waves and tides, and river currents.
However the greatest source of modern electricity is burning coal, at 41 percent of the total in 2011 (source, IEA). Next is natural gas at 21 percent. The people who drill for gas are quite good at finding more as the need arises, drilling in new areas or deeper in old areas. In addition, we know that great stores of methane exist in the cold, deep ocean as methane hydrates. The same is not true for coal, however.
Coal is only economic if it can be mined and brought to the surface at fairly low cost. Indeed, coal must exist in a seam at least 2 feet thick, and at less than 4000 feet depth, or it is stranded, left in place. CalTech’s Professor Rutledge gives an excellent overview of world coal reserves in his 2011 paper. (“Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms,” International Journal of Coal Geology, 85 (2011) 23-33 ). He paints a grim picture. Roughly, there are 500 billion tonnes of mine-able coal left in the world, and the existing consumption rate is 7.8 billion tonnes per year (Note, that was in 2011. It is now up to 9 billion tonnes per year). This provides approximately 60 to 70 years of coal remaining – from 2011 and 7.8 billion tonnes per year consumption. Several years later, and at higher consumption rate, there are likely only 30-40 years remaining. .
However, a slight positive note is that Rutledge did not include coal deposits near the Arctic, in Alaska North Slope, and Siberia’s Lena and Tungus fields. Whether those fields in the harsh, cold far north can be produced economically is an open question.
As I have stated earlier, nuclear fission is not a candidate due to resource limitations, outrageous cost, and serious safety concerns (see D. Abbot, 2011). The world is in great need, then, dire need actually, of a replacement energy source for coal and nuclear. Together, that is nearly 55 percent of today’s energy production.
Knowing this, it makes sense to turn to the renewables: wind, solar, and ocean current. It may also be possible to make the ocean-temperature-difference technology (OTEC) work. If the technologies still need a subsidy to advance so they can stand alone and provide electricity at reasonable rates, then prudence dictates the subsidies be made.
Advances in grid-scale energy storage have been made, with underwater storage in the shallow oceans an excellent candidate. Similar systems can be deployed around the deeper Great Lakes in the US. Also, batteries are in grid-storage service. And, a rail-based gravity storage system is under construction in Nevada near Las Vegas.
Is this hubris? Will engineers and planners of the year 2100 read this or similar articles, and get a good laugh? It could happen. Until some major technology improvement or discovery occurs, though, this is about the best we can do. We can alter our grids so that power can flow from onshore turbines in windy areas to storage facilities. We can install large, economic wind turbines offshore and store the power underwater in hollow spheres for later use. We can maintain the improvements in solar photo-voltaics, primarily efficiency and cost reduction. A recent announcement showed that 40 percent efficiency has been achieved in PV (2014). We can install and test slow-speed ocean current turbines, and tap into the incredible amounts of energy in the ocean currents.
The problem is made much, much more acute when one considers the effect of population growth, and the increase in energy-per-capita. A growth rate in electricity consumption of only 2 percent per year will triple electricity demand in only 55 years. (the STEM majors will run that calculation and verify it as 2.97, close enough to 3.0) Even more sobering is that number will again triple in another 55 years. That puts the world needing 9 times the present energy in only 110 years. That puts Professor Rutledge’s 60 to 70 years for coal-exhaustion as an optimistic figure. We may well run out of coal long before that.
When various governments decide to continue subsidies for wind, or solar, or fund research into alternative energies, and some decry these as a waste of money, I hope someone points this article to them. What would the nay-sayers do? There will be a grim day of reckoning when the coal runs out. It would be far, far better to have proven, economic means to provide grid-scale electricity at least a decade before the coal-runs-out-day.
It may be possible, someday, to gasify coal in-situ and collect the gasified product at the surface and do all this economically. There is research into this. The practical challenges are, however, enormous. One must essentially start a fire in the coal-bed, deep underground, with sufficient oxygen to maintain the burning. The economics of oxygen injection make the entire thing questionable. Also, a patent from 1980 describes injecting methanol and steam into a coal bed to produce methane.
original article on my blog; “Forecasting the Future – Hubris or Honesty; Subtitle: Coal Exhaustion Looms – Renewable Energy to the Rescue”
http://sowellslawblog.blogspot.com/2014/05/forecasting-future-hubris-or-honesty.html
No problem Roger I’ll let my Chinese associates know their trillions of dollars are at risk and suggest they modify their strategy to focus on solar or wind or nuclear.
I’ll let you know what they say tomorrow . . .
Don’t bother. My Chinese colleagues have known this for many years. They see what the short game is in China, and the end game, too. Coal in power plants is a short-term means to the end, which is giving the country enough electricity to achieve a comfortable standard of living. When the coal runs out in 40 years, the plants will be old and ready to retire.
Their hope is for nuclear power to take over the power production – the government’s hope, that is. My colleagues shudder at nuclear, as do I.
However, nuclear plants in sufficient number will increase the average price of electricity. That in turn will increase the price that coal can obtain, thus making a few more years of coal available.
See what “your” Chinese associates have to say about that.
Yes Roger, and according to the experts, we ran out of oil 50 years ago.
Roger Sowell, I want to thank you. It is because of people who are like minded to you that I have rejected the AGW theory. You grasp at horribly expensive and impractical straws for energy generation while purposely denigrating the least expensive and most practical means of energy generation. It is without debate that nuclear power has inherent dangers but it is by far the most practical means of energy generation if minimizing CO2 release into the atmosphere is the goal.
If you are able to make the calculations on energy production needs by 2100 (with questionable assumptions about relevant population increase), then you are also able to make the calculations about how many solar panels (and corresponding rare earth materials) would have to be made to provide even 30% of those energy needs. Don’t forget the amount of land required to meet those needs for only solar and then do the same for wind power. Don’t forget to factor in the replacement time and costs. Go ahead and calculate the cost of your ‘ocean current power generators’, their practicality and their financial costs. I recommend that you take the time to study time value of money and opportunity cost.
I can only assume that you are intelligent enough to recognize the weaknesses of solar, wind and ‘ocean current’ power generation. Personally, if I truly believed that the earth was being catastrophically warmed and action was needed immediately to avoid horrific consequences in the future, I would reach for the best immediate solution available, even if that solution had potential problems. Even if I acknowledge that nuclear power generation is unsafe (which I don’t), I would still rather deal with the potential regional problems of a nuclear reactor than face the consequences of all the horrible, deadly, and hellish occurences we have been told will happen to us because of AGW.
Modern day proponents of Catastrophic AGW do not however. Ergo, I can only assume that is because you either A) Don’t really believe what you say you believe or B) Truly wish that your fellow human beings live in squalor and poverty while a special few grow ignorantly rich on government subsidies a.k.a. the ultimate payola scam.
Coal may indeed be almost out. Hey, who knows, we could run out of natural gas at any moment (although evidence points otherwise). But if you think solar, wind and ‘ocean current’ energy generation is practical on a large scale basis and you think that is the solution, you are living in a fantasy world.
Ultimately fusion power is the best long term solution but we seem to be at an impasse on that currently as the NIF has not quite made it to the Lawson point yet. Until then, we must go with the most practical, economical and intelligent method of power generation available, which is what we are doing. When coal runs out and if fusion has not been made viable yet, we can increase our mix to whatever is then the most practical and economical method at that time. Until then, the mere fact that almost all believers in Catastrophic AGW also reject nuclear power is proof to me that they do not believe what they say they believe. Or even worse, they are a vicious band of Malthusians that need to ridiculed.
For Andrew Cooke, re your comment. You could not be more wrong.
“It is because of people who are like minded to you that I have rejected the AGW theory.”
People like me? You obviously have not read much, probably not any, of what I write and have written. I’ve been making speeches and writing on the false-alarmism of global warming for many years not.
” “You grasp at horribly expensive and impractical straws for energy generation while purposely denigrating the least expensive and most practical means of energy generation.”
No, completely wrong. Again, read my writings.
“It is without debate that nuclear power has inherent dangers but it is by far the most practical means of energy generation if minimizing CO2 release into the atmosphere is the goal.”
No, completely wrong again. Nuclear power, in any form, is hopelessly uneconomic due to very high construction costs and, in today’s economy, high operating costs compared to natural gas-fired plants. Again, read my writings.
“If you are able to make the calculations on energy production needs by 2100 (with questionable assumptions about relevant population increase), then you are also able to make the calculations about how many solar panels (and corresponding rare earth materials) would have to be made to provide even 30% of those energy needs.”
You could easily do the calculations for solar panels to power any given entity. A state, the US, or any other country. With adequate storage, an area less than 100 miles by 100 miles could have solar panels and power the entire US. We would not do that because of transmission issues, even if the storage already existed. Again, read my writings.
“Don’t forget the amount of land required to meet those needs for only solar and then do the same for wind power. Don’t forget to factor in the replacement time and costs”
See above.
.” Go ahead and calculate the cost of your ‘ocean current power generators’, their practicality and their financial costs.”
Nobody can yet calculate the cost of ocean current power generation. The research is ongoing. I commend to you the Florida State University research and their publications. They will figure it out.
“I recommend that you take the time to study time value of money and opportunity cost.”
Now, you’ve made me laugh. I teach those courses to engineers. And have practiced all over the world using such principles in mega-projects. Most valued in the multiple billion $ range. Again, read my writings.
“I can only assume that you are intelligent enough to recognize the weaknesses of solar, wind and ‘ocean current’ power generation. P”
I don’t know how intelligent that would be. I managed ok on what little intelligence I was given, with my engineering degree, more than 40 years of consulting experience world-wide, and a law degree an license to practice law. Perhaps I’m just too stupid, in your not-so-humble opinion.
Your comment, is, however, more and more the norm here at WUWT. People I have never, ever heard of nor seen as commenters at WUWT have the nerve to rip into me. I’ve been reading, commenting, and making guest posts at WUWT for more than 8 years (March, 2009 first guest post).
After some thought, I decided to reply to your reply of my posting.
I decided to go back and read your blog and your multiple postings on subject matter such as renewables and nuclear energy. I usually don’t do this but, alas, my curiosity got the best of me. I read through your articles on nuclear power. I read through your feelings in regards to renewables.
I shall now apologize for one of my statements. You’re loving embrace of renewables led me to assume you were of the CAGW bent. Apparently you are not. I am truly glad to see that. I have been reading WUWT for at least the last five years on an almost daily basis, including comments and now that I remember and go back over previous articles and comments I have seen your name before. It was unfortunate that when I posted a reply to your posts I did not remember that.
Now on to some other issues. I am not a ‘proponent’ of Nuclear power. I am a proponent of cheap energy. Your willingness to gloss over particular issues in regards to renewables and your laser like focus on subject matters that are not as cut and dry as you try to make them (peak oil, peak coal) do not do you any favors in the art of winning arguments.
In regards to your reply to my reply.
1. I said people like-minded to you not people like you. Words mean things.
2. Saying “Wrong, read my writings”, although it directs people to your blog, does not make for an effective argument. Not to mention, your writings gloss over a few issues.
3. What is the current life of a solar panel? It’s attendant parts and pieces? What rare earth metals (which we must purchase at an elevated cost) are used in solar panels? What is the efficiency curve of solar panels? Even if we have 100 solar farms at 1 square mile each, would that be sufficient? How many panels would that be? Would it be sufficient if they are only built in Arizona?
4. I do not know anything about ocean current power generation. Just a logical overview of what it would take causes me to question its feasibility.
5. Frankly, I was not casting aspersions on your intelligence, my assumption is that you are intelligent. Your degrees while good do not set you apart. Most posters on this site have that as well, myself included. I did rather enjoy your whole “I have been on this site longer than you so by quiet” vibe that you put off with the last paragraph, but that is life.
Renewables do have issues. They cannot at this time provide base load power. That is not an opinion. They suffer from economies of scale. A thousand small turbines, turned by wind, water or magic, will never be as efficient as ten large turbines turned by something powerful enough to turn them. Pointing out how California has not suffered from its large renewable mix doesn’t mean much. Disconnect California from the national grid and then tell us about the wonders of renewables.
We use hydrocarbons to power our energy grid because they are the most efficient, they provide base load power and they are sufficiently powerful enough to provide massive amounts of energy in a comparatively small footprint. Since energy companies want to make money, I am confident that they will happily switch to all renewables once it is economical to do so. Until then, talking about peak anything with the zeal of a evangelical preacher is pointless.
Roger that’s precisely the plan so hey we’re on the same page.
Seems only our ‘reserves’ knowledge differs.
Olympic Dam (SA) is going to be a very busy place when you and I are long gone.
So it’s buy Coal shares for yourself and BHP + ERA shares for your kids.
Go China and to a lesser extent go Trump who has too many globalist AGW vested interests to really fix the USA for the long haul.
The Chinese know this and Trump is simply a minor hitch in their master plan.
They’re very happy with Malcolm of Oz though.
He’s sending a lot of industries to them as did the Labor Party before him.
Cheers . . .
It is odd that this NY Times article came out AFTER Trump pulled out of the Paris deal, not before. It’s like the NY Times didn’t want to give Trump any justification or political cover for his action.
This is, after all, not new information.
Really odd. I mean, whose side are they on?
North America has coal reserves good for 356 years. Back to the good old locomotives
http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/coal/coal-reserves.html
http://www.limelightmagazine.com.au/sites/www.limelightmagazine.com.au/files/goodwp.com_25372.jpg
Not a good example, I’m afraid.
It’s not the CO2 from coal the greenie lunatics are obsessing about that’s the issue, it’s the soot coming out of the pipe. That particulate is the real pollution and the Chinese government knows it.
I’m all for using hydrocarbon energy sources if used cleanly [feasible with coal too] and efficiently. That locomotive with it’s 1.5% overall energy efficiency, is obsolete – the 35% efficiency of a new gen turbo diesel or LNG / electric motor hybrid is the route go.
You’ll be out of oil and natural gas in 50-100 years. New Quadrum steam engine has 36% efficiency
I took one of those from Durango to Silverton back in the 1960’s. I rode in the open top car and kept getting soot in my eyes. Not the most pleasant experience. I wisely grabbed a window seat in the coach car for the return trip.
arthur4563
What would be a laughable sight would be stranded electric cars all over California on a rainy day. You can juice them up just fine and cheaply with coal or gas fired power.
Thorium reactor was demonstrated at Chalk River (Ontario) in the 50s and I believe followed up at Oak Ridge. The unenriched uranium – Candu reactor invented at Chalk River was the most brilliant of the U-reactors, but we boy scouts didn’t get into the payola and kickbacks game so didn’t win the bullying marketing scrum with inferior enriched and its waste problems.
Prophetically, Candu can be simply converted to Thorium. Thorium is even amenable to miniaturization apparently. Think personal nuke in your garage! Canadian technology was already there and waiting for over half a century.
Harper government sold the tech to premier engineering firm SNC-Lavalin in 2011 who build and market. India and China will be coming out with Thorium quicker than you think-they happen to have Candu reactors which they bought eons ago and these are ready to go! We’re it not for chauvinism in the nuclear market, everyone would already have this fruit of engineering excellence.
Anthony, I can live with a typo or two, but a simple Find and Replace that changes “states” to “state’s” would probably generate an article with far less typos than the current article contains. Actually, I just checked; it would. In doing so I also encountered Mr. Ware’s similar objection regarding apostrophe use generally. But “states” is far and away the most prevalent error. Close to a dozen of them.
“The level of renewable use is now so high in Germany that serious electric grid reliability and stability issues now exist which require both fossil power plant emergency backup for failed renewable production and dictate rejecting renewable energy to ensure operation of fossil plants required for electric grid reliability and stability.”
absolute nonsense!
Germany has the world’s most reliable and stable grid.
It simply does not have outages caused by renewables.
It has had more than one day this year with over 80% of demand met by renewables. Outages as a result? none.
It got 355 of all demand met by renewables in the first half of the year from renewables. Outages as a result? none.
I notice this doesn’t show the charts for new coal in US and Europe.
That’s because there is hardly any and it will be massively surpassed by retiring coal plant.
also note that announced and pre-permitted plants are very, very likely not to be built. The chart for W Europe shows 5 plants which are complete vapourware and have no chance of construction (there’s one in Scotland, for example. No way!)
And here I though that WUWT’s resident troll had given up at this website. Oh well.
Anyway, as usual, Griff’s comment regarding coal in the U.S. and Europe doesn’t tell the whole story.
https://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/pdf/t7p01p1.pdf.
The EIA table linked to above shows that U.S. coal exports have risen quite significantly in the last year, including to many countries who have built or are building coal plants. This includes Germany, China, Japan and India, just to name a few.
So, demand here in the U.S. may indeed be flat or down because of the shutdown of coal plants and the lack of new ones. But if that coal export trend continues as new coal plants are built overseas, Griff’s comments, such as the one above make for amusing fodder to read. Griff is trying desperately to kill off an industry which shows no sign of wanting to die.
Our coal exports, if the upward trend continues, will hopefully help with our trade deficit with many countries. Hard to say how much, but it is better than nothing.
But keep trying anyway Griff, don’t give up!
Oops. Coal exports to Japan did not increase. My bad.
Germany is NOT building coal plants… it completed its coal programme and will never build another coal plant
(I qualify that as the Dateln 4 plant is only 75% or so complete and it is anyone’s guess as to whether they ever finish it)
Japan’s coal plant plans are still just plans… with a declining population and a huge roll out of soalr power, how many of the planned plants will ever get built?
china and India have both cancelled planned coal plant and India won’t think of approving new applications till 2022.
South Korea is now moving away from coal.
90% of coal plants in the Western US will close by 2037…
Once again reality trumps alarmist claims and diktats. The world won’t stop using fossil fuels until there is a reliable and affordable alternative. Like it or not that is the fact. You can force feed solar and wind until the cows come home but they cannot replace fossil fuels in the foreseeable future no matter how much one tries to justify or lie about it.
Where did the data for the scatter plot of renewables vs. electricity cost come from? Thanks.