Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Recap of John Christy’s Testimony: Described in the April 1 TWTW, the March 29 written testimony of John Christy provides further physical evidence refuting the hypothesis encompassed in the 1979 Chaney Report that the modest warming, demonstrated by laboratory experiments, from a doubling of CO2 will be greatly amplified by processes in the atmosphere, namely by an increase in the flow of latent energy from the surface to the atmosphere.
The theory of latent heat is well tested. It is the absorption or release of energy through phase change of a substance. For example, liquid water at the surface is converted to a gas, water vapor, it absorbs heat, without necessarily increasing temperature. The heat absorbed changes the bonding energy among the molecules, resulting in the change of phase from liquid to gas. In the Charney hypothesis, the gas rises into the atmosphere until it condenses back to liquid water, releasing the energy as heat. The process will significantly amplify the warming caused by CO2. In the global climate models, based on the Charney hypothesis, the release of latent energy is centered over the tropics at about 10 km (33,000 feet), 250 to 200 mb of pressure. This is the so-called “hot-spot.”
Using the Canadian Climate Model as an example, Christy gives a pictorial representation of the “hot-spot.” He outlines the area from the surface to 50,000 feet (15km), making it clear where the pronounced atmospheric warming should occur, according to the modelers and the prevalent hypothesis. By keeping his analysis below 50,000 feet, Christy avoids any confusion of the principal issue with stratospheric cooling, for which there is no generally accepted explanation.
Christy shows that, in general, global climate models (CMIP5), from 32 institutions, greatly overestimate the tropospheric warming trends (50,000 feet or below). The number of simulations each institution contributes varies from one to eighteen. For the empirical data, Christy uses 3 different satellite datasets, 4 balloon datasets, and the average of 3 reanalysis datasets. The different types of datasets closely correspond, contrasting the average of the models which greatly overestimate the observations by 2.5 to 3 times.
Clearly, the global climate models fail this basic test and the hypothesis of a significant amplification of the effect of CO2 as encompassed in the Charney Report fails. Following the procedures of the scientific method, they must be rejected until substantially revised.
Christy reveals that in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5, 2013) the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provided information that supports his conclusions. In the Supplementary Material of Chapter 10, the report (Figure SM 10.1) showed that the tropical trends of climate models with greenhouse gases added failed to match actual trends while climate models without greenhouse gases added agreed with actual trends. Christy simplified the material for his testimony (Figure 5). In short, the reasoning that the IPCC offered elsewhere as proof of the strong influence of greenhouse gases was proof of their weak influence. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Quote of the Week. For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. – Richard Feynman
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Number of the Week: 0.6% and 1.9%
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Revised Paper by Wallace, Christy, and D’Aleo: In his testimony, Christy discusses the simple statistical model used in the August paper by Wallace, Christy, and D’Aleo. At the time of Christy’s testimony, the paper was undergoing revision and made stronger. The paper has been reviewed by several experts in relevant sciences and statistics.
One of the major issues regarding the global climate models is their complexity. They involve multiple complex climate processes that have not been adequately solved. Weather models also involve such processes, but can be used to predict over short periods of time — a matter of days. Much of the improvement in numerical weather prediction is from improvement in measuring initial conditions. For meaningful climate predictions, initial conditions should be irrelevant. But, if the current climate models are to be meaningful, thorough understanding of the climate processes is necessary.
The widely accepted Kiehl – Trenberth Annual Global Mean Energy Budget Model (TWTW March 11 & 18) gives an example of the annual global energy flows that must be known with a high degree of precision before meaningful predictions can be made from global climate models. Although research has been on-going for over 35 years, adequate measurements of these energy flows may take decades more.
The beauty of the simplified approach used by Wallace, Christy, and D’Aleo (WCD) is that bulk atmospheric and surface measurements are used. Thus, detailed knowledge and measurement of the processes involved are not necessary. The statistical techniques employed are widely used in economics and other types of studies. Certainly, economics is not considered a precise science. But, at this point, climate science is not precise.
The central issue remains – will a significant increase in CO2 result in dangerously higher surface temperatures. The EPA’s finding that greenhouse gases endanger human health and welfare (endangerment finding) assert that it will. But as seen above, both the hypothesis and models the EPA relies on fail basic testing.
The WCD approach addresses changes in global average temperatures, both atmospheric and surface, using four explanatory variables: 1) changes in CO2; 2) changes in solar activity; 3) changes in volcanic activity; and 4) changes in the coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as indicated in NOAA’s Multivariate ENSO Index.
Change in first variable (CO2) is considered human-caused, anthropogenic. The others are natural and unpredictable, chaotic. (Some solar experts may disagree that changes in the sun are unpredictable.). The key issue is whether the three natural variables adequately explain changes in temperatures, without needing the influence of CO2.
Fourteen different temperature datasets are analyzed, including balloon and surface data from 1959 to 2015 and satellite data from 1979 to 2015.
As Christy stated in his March written testimony:
The fact that this statistical model explains 75-90 percent of the real annual temperature variability, depending on dataset, using these influences (ENSO, volcanoes, solar) is an indication the statistical model is useful. In addition, the trends produced from this statistical model are not statistically different from the actual data (i.e. passing the “scientific-method” trend test which assumes the natural factors are not influenced by increasing GHGs). This result promotes the conclusion that this approach achieves greater scientific (and policy) utility than results from elaborate climate models which on average fail to reproduce the real world’s global average bulk temperature trend since 1979.
It is important to note that the WCD report brings up two econometric issues that may result in overestimates of the influence of human-released CO2 on surface temperatures: 1) multicollinearity and 2) simultaneity.
Multicollinearity results from influences other than those directly considered. For example, over the time-period considered, on an annual scale, CO2 is rising roughly linearly. On a similar scale, certain other activities may have roughly linear trends causing increasing temperatures, which are incorrectly attributed to CO2. One such human activity is urbanization.
Simultaneity would occur when an increase in temperatures from natural causes results in an outgassing of CO2 from the oceans, which may be falsely attributed to humans. CO2 outgassing can be seen in the ice cores from Antarctica with an increase in CO2 following a general warming. There are statistical ways to address such issues.
Christy’s comment concerning the IPCC models is appropriate:
The over-warming of the atmosphere by the IPCC models relates to a problem the IPCC AR5 encountered elsewhere. In trying to determine the climate sensitivity, which is how sensitive the global temperature is relative to increases in GHGs, the IPCC authors chose not to give a best estimate. [A high climate sensitivity is a foundational component of the last Administration’s Social Cost of Carbon.] The reason? … climate models were showing about twice the sensitivity to GHGs than calculations based on real, empirical data. I would encourage this committee, and our government in general, to consider empirical data, not climate model output, when dealing with environmental regulations.
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Shots Fired: Over the weekend of April 22-23, the office next to John Christy’s on the UAH campus was fired upon. According to accounts, the police collected seven 5.8 x 23 mm cartridge casings. The cartridge is a high-velocity round for handguns especially designed for NATO. The bullet is about the same diameter as higher velocity cartridge used in the M-16 rifle. Our concern goes to John Christy and his family, and the occupants of the offices next to John’s. We hope this was not the work of a fanatic deranged by the fear of global warming. See links under Suppressing Scientific Inquiry.
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Paris No, Endangerment Finding Yes? Last week, the Wall Street Journal editorialized that EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt is correct in not addressing the petitions to reconsider the endangerment finding. This week the newspaper urged the Trump administration to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. The argument is that the international agreement will limit the growth potential of the US economy.
Apparently, the newspaper does not recognize that the endangerment finding may place as severe restrictions on economic growth as the Paris Agreement. Environmental groups will use it in their campaign against natural gas drilling and gas-fired power plants. They will continue the myth that carbon dioxide is a pollutant if the endangerment finding stands. See Article # 1 and links under After Paris! Change in US Administrations, and Environmental Industry
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Costs of Solar and Wind: Last week’s TWTW contained an estimate by Euan Mearns of Energy Matters that, with subsidies included, renewables cost about three times as much as conventional power in Europe. Donn Dears gives a clear explanation of costs all too frequently not considered by those who try to make direct comparisons. Operating costs are especially important because they must be borne by the utilities and consumers, but are often ignored. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
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Which Climate Must Be Preserved? The Peoples Climate March ended without particularly significant participation. Roy Spencer inquired which climate? The morning forecast for Washington was a high of 20 degrees above normal, the forecast for Denver, another hotbed of protest, was a high of 30 degrees below normal and snow. See link under Changing Weather
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Number of the Week: 0.6% and 1.9% According to the EIA, solar accounted for about 0.6% of total US energy consumption in 2015, and wind for about 1.9%. All forms of renewables accounted for about 10% of energy consumption. What is confusing is that many people think solar and wind are the major forms of renewable energy. But, EIA classifications show that of the 10% total classified as renewable, hydroelectric is 25%, biofuels 49% (wood 21%, biofuels 22%, biomass waste 2%) and geothermal is 2%. Many of those who write articles about renewable energy sources do not understand that biomass and hydroelectric comprise 74% of the total. See links under Energy Issues – US and https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/?page=us_energy_home.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The five past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz and John Holdren are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you. The award will be presented at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness in August.
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
20 More New Papers Link Climate, Weather, Clouds, ENSO, NAO, Sea Levels, Crop Yields…To Solar Activity
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 27, 2017
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
UAH Shooting Investigation Update, and Thanks
Earlier: Update on Possible Ecoterror Attack at UAH
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Apr 27, 2017 [H/t Norm Kalmanovitch]
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/04/uah-shooting-investigation-update-and-thanks/
Earlier. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/04/update-on-possible-ecoterror-attack-at-uah/
“When I was at NASA, my boss was personally told by Al Gore that Gore blamed our satellite temperature dataset for the failure of carbon tax legislation to pass.”
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Invalidating the EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding
By Staff Writers, ICECAP, Apr 24, 2017
Link to Abridged Report: On the Existence of a “Tropical Hot Spot” & The Validity of EPA’s CO2Endangerment Finding
By Wallace, Christy, & D’Aleo, April 2017
U.S. House Committee on Science, Space & Technology
Testimony of John R. Christy, Mar 29, 2017
Believe It! Global Warming Hiatus Real, Chinese And Japanese Scientists Affirm
Slowdown: The braked warming of the last one and a half decades and its reasons
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning und Prof. Fritz Vahrenhholt (German text translated by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Apr 22, 2017
Study Finds Burning All Fossil Fuels Would Lead To Only Max. 500-800 PPM CO2 Atmospheric Concentration
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 25, 2017
Link to paper: Simple Model for the Antropogenically Forced CO2 Cycle Tested on Measured Quantities
By Horst-Joachim Lüdecke and Carl Otto Weiss, Journal of Geography, Environment and Earth Science International, Jan 5, 2017
http://www.journalrepository.org/media/journals/JGEESI_42/2017/Jan/Ludecke842016JGEESI30532_1_1.pdf
Academics Play the Global Warming Card
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Apr 25, 2017
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/04/academics_play_the_global_warming_card.html
A Climate of Science Deception
By Patrick Michaels and Ryan Maue, CATO, Apr 27, 2017
https://www.cato.org/blog/climate-science-deception
[SEPP Comment: Giving one example why the National Assessments of Climate Change by the USGCRP should be considered political reports, not scientific reports.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Al Gore’s New Group Demands $15 Trillion To Fight Global Warming
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Apr 25, 2017 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://dailycaller.com/2017/04/25/al-gores-new-group-demands-15-trillion-to-fight-global-warming/
Link to report: Better energy, Greater Prosperity
Achievable pathways to low-carbon energy systems
By Staff Writers, The Energy Transitions Commission, April 2017
http://energy-transitions.org/sites/default/files/BetterEnergy_Executive%20Summary_DIGITAL.PDF
[SEPP Comment: Would the executives who signed the report promise that any electricity for medical procedures they undergo must not come from fossil fuels?]
Commentary: Putting the right price on energy
By Toshiyuki Shirai, IEA, Apr 27, 2017
http://www.iea.org/newsroom/news/2017/april/commentary-putting-the-right-price-on-energy.html?
Link to report: Tracking fossil fuel subsidies in APEC economies
Toward a sustained subsidy reform
By Staff Writers, IEA, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) bureaucrats know best!]
Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget
By Kiehl, J. T. and Trenberth, K. E., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1997
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/abstracts/files/kevin1997_1.html
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The Major Effects an Invalid Scientific Hypothesis Can Have
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Apr 28, 2017
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/3558
Are Global Warming claims and the so-called Consensus a Sinister Betrayal of Science?
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Apr 24, 2017
Global Warming Swindle
By Thomas Sowell, Townhall, Mar 15, 2017
https://townhall.com/columnists/thomassowell/2007/03/15/global-warming-swindle-n1176180
[SEPP Comment: Praising a program on British television.]
Some USDA scientists say their work has been tampered with — maybe for political reasons
By Darryl Fears, Washington Post, Apr 21, 2017
After Paris!
The Case for Pulling the U.S. Out of the Paris Climate Accord
By Ross McKitrick, WUWT, Apr 27, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/04/27/the-case-for-pulling-the-u-s-out-of-the-paris-climate-accord/
How Team Trump plans to kill Obama’s Paris climate deal by declaring it a treaty
By Stephen Dinan, The Washington Times, Apr 26, 2017
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/apr/26/paris-climate-accord-eyed-as-treaty/
Climate Accord Withdrawal Divides White House
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Apr 24, 2017
http://www.newsmax.com/LarryBell/convention-framework-paris/2017/04/24/id/785993/
Activist Attorneys General Urge Trump to Stay in Paris Agreement
By Marlo Lewis, CEI, Apr 26, 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]
https://cei.org/blog/activist-attorneys-general-urge-trump-stay-paris-agreement
Top Trump Aides Clash on Legal Risks of Paris Climate Accord
By Jennifer Dlouhy and Ari Natter, Bloomberg, Apr 27, 2017
Draining the Swamp with Article V
By Fritz Pettyjohn, American Thinker, Apr 24, 2017
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/04/draining_the_swamp_with_article_v.html
Seeking a Common Ground
The March for Science Is the Problem, Not the Solution
By Lucas Bergkamp, Areo Magazine, Apr 24, 2017
https://areomagazine.com/2017/04/24/the-march-for-science-is-the-problem-not-the-solution/
UAH Shooting Investigation Update, and Thanks
Earlier: Update on Possible Ecoterror Attack at UAH
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Apr 27, 2017 [H/t Norm Kalmanovitch]
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/04/uah-shooting-investigation-update-and-thanks/
Earlier. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/04/update-on-possible-ecoterror-attack-at-uah/
“When I was at NASA, my boss was personally told by Al Gore that Gore blamed our satellite temperature dataset for the failure of carbon tax legislation to pass.”
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Elevated CO2 Enhances the Removal of Cadmium and Lead Contamination from Toxic Soils
Huang, S., Jia, X., Zhao, Y., Bai, B. and Chang, Y. 2017. Elevated CO2 benefits the soil microenvironment in the rhizosphere of Robinia pseudoacacia L. seedlings in Cd- and Pb-contaminated soils. Chemosphere 168: 606-616. Apr [No Day], 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/apr/a15.php
[SEPP Comment: Important research for contaminated soils such as in China.]
How Coral Polyps May Counteract Ocean Water Acidification
Ohno, Y., Iguchi, A., Shinzato, C., Inoue, M., Suzuki, A., Sakai, K. and Nakamura, T. 2017. An aposymbiotic primary coral polyp counteracts acidification by active pH regulation. Scientific Reports 7: 40342, DOI: 10.1038/srep40324. Apr 27, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/apr/a12.php
“’corals can sense ambient seawater pH via their innate pH-sensitive systems and, therefore that they can (5) ‘regulate pHSCM using several unknown pH-regulating ion transporters that coordinate with multicellular signaling occurring in coral tissue.’”
Coral-Algal Symbiosis in the South China Sea
Tong, H., Cai, L., Zhou, G., Yuan, T., Zhang, W., Tian, R., Huang, H. and Qian, P-Y. 2017. Temperature shapes coral-algal symbiosis in the South China Sea. Scientific Reports 7: 40118, DOI: 10.1038/srep40118.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/apr/a10.php
Model Issues
In an attempt to discredit Judith Curry, Gavin at RealClimate shows how bad climate models really are
Guest essay by Thomas Wiita, WUWT, Apr 26, 2017
Measurement Issues — Surface
Danish Meteorological Institute Moves To Obscure Recent Record Greenland Ice Growth
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 28, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Changing the baseline to a 30-year period may make sense, but it should be explained.]
Changing Weather
How hurricanes replenish their vast supply of rain water
By Makarieva A.M., Gorshkov V.G., Nefiodov A.V., Chikunov A.V., Sheil D., Nobre A.D., Li B.-L., Climate Etc. Apr 23, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Addressing a mystery, the major source of the rainwater in a tropical cyclone.]
People’s Climate March on Saturday…through Snow
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Apr 28, 2017
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/04/peoples-climate-march-on-saturday-through-snow/
Time to defund the weather-forecasting rent-seekers
Guest opinion by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Apr 27, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/04/27/time-to-defund-the-weather-forecasting-rent-seekers/
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Recent regional climate cooling on the Antarctic Peninsula and associated impacts on the cryosphere
By M. Olivaa, et al. Science of the Total Environment, Feb 15, 2017 [H/t Bill Balgord]
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969716327152
[SEPP Comment: Even the Antarctic Peninsula does not have a warming trend as claimed.]
Föhn winds: New insight into what weakens Antarctic ice shelves
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 25, 2017
Changing Earth
Volcanoes, CO2, and climate change
By Robert Truner, American Thinker, Apr 27, 2017 [H/t John Dunn]
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2017/04/volcanoes_co2_and_climate_change.html
“In a study recently published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters, geologists at the Royal Holloway University report finding a massive lake of molten carbon the size of Mexico located some 217 miles below the Earth’s surface across the western United States.”
[SEPP Comment: Unable to link to paper.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Only half of meteorologists think human emissions are major cause of climate change
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 28, 2017
“In 2016 67% of meteorologists said that humans have caused most or all climate change and The Guardian headlined that there was a Growing Consensus among Meteorologists. In 2017 that fell to only 49%. The Guardian said nothing.”
[SEPP Comment: The poll was conducted by Edward Maibach who publicly called for the prosecution of climate change “deniers.” Thus, the poll may contain a bias.]
Questioning European Green
Energy Manifesto Calls for Reforms that Ensure Cheap and Reliable Energy Future,
Press Release by Staff Writers, GWPF, Apr 26, 2017
We’re All Victims of the Great Green Swindle
By Alice Thomson, The Times, Via GWPF, Apr 26, 2017
http://www.thegwpf.com/were-all-victims-of-the-great-green-swindle/
Anti-Shale Europe: Companies Ready to Fund $5.1 Billion for Russia Gas Pipeline
By Emre Peker, WSJ, Via GWPF, Apr 25, 2017
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Cuomo’s war on pipelines is crushing New York’s economy
Editorial, New York Post, Apr 22, 2017
http://nypost.com/2017/04/22/cuomos-war-on-pipelines-is-crushing-new-yorks-economy/
Renewable Energy Sources: Does Their Output Matter?
By Stanislav Jakuba , Master Resource, Apr 27, 2017
https://www.masterresource.org/renewable-energy/renewable-energy-sources-output-matter/
Funding Issues
A Climate Hysteric’s Fake Enemies List
By Steven Allen, WSJ, Via GWPF, Apr 28, 2017
http://www.thegwpf.com/a-climate-hysterics-fake-enemies-list/
Link to GAO Report: Climate Change Funding and Management 1993-2014
By Staff Writers, GAO, No Date
http://www.gao.gov/key_issues/climate_change_funding_management/issue_summary#t=0
Litigation Issues
Michigan v. EPA
Harvard Law Review, Nov 10, 2015
https://harvardlawreview.org/2015/11/michigan-v-epa/
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
When It Comes to a Carbon Tax, There’s No Such Thing as a Free Lunch
By Tom Walton, Real Clear Energy, Apr 27, 2017
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Tax Subsidies For Renewables Now Far Outpaces Fossil Fuels
By Rep Lamar Smith, Real Clear Energy, Apr 28, 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]
[SEPP Comment: Not mentioned is that one of the reasons for the early tax incentives for fossil fuels was the need for the fuels in fighting WW I.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Bipartisan Attorney General Letter Opposes Electric Vehicle Industrial Policy in EPA-VW Settlement
By William Yeatman, CEI, Apr 25, 2017
[SEPP Comment: EPA and DOJ exceeding statutory authority?]
Will EPA Cuts Harm America’s Air Quality?
By Oren Cass, Manhattan Institute, Apr 27, 2017 [H/t Willie Soon]
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/will-epa-cuts-harm-americas-air-quality-10228.html
Link to full report:
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/IB-OC-0417.pdf
Energy Issues – Non-US
Rethinking energy supplies
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Apr 27, 2017
http://scientific-alliance.org/node/1046
“That’s the way people’s minds work – we tend to expect a continuation of a trend – and it’s one reason why predictions are so difficult to make about almost anything.”
The GWPF’s Submission to the UK Govt’s Industrial Strategy Consultation
By Staff Writers, GWPF, Apr 24, 2017
http://www.thegwpf.com/the-gwpfs-submission-to-the-uk-govts-industrial-strategy-consultation/
Energy policy set to be a battle ground in the General Election
The cost of energy and policies on climate change will come under the spotlight as the UK goes to the polls
By Peter McCusker, Newcastle Chronicle, UK, Apr 26, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/business/business-news/energy-policy-set-battle-ground-12947656
Energy Issues — US
These States Use the Most Renewable Energy [Electricity]
By Casey Leins, US News, Apr 22, 2017
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/slideshows/these-states-use-the-most-renewable-energy
[SEPP Comment: Highest percentage of renewable electricity would better fit.]
1. Oregon – 49%, of total, 80% hydro
2. Washington – 47% of total, 90% hydro
3. Maine – 38%, primarily from hydro & biomass
4. South Dakota – 35%, mostly hydro
5. Montana – 34%, mostly hydro with 20 dams
6. Idaho – 30%, primarily hydro
7. Iowa – 26%, majority hydro
8. Vermont – 25%, mostly hydro from Canada
9. New Hampshire, 20%, Biomass and Wind
10. North Dakota, 17%, 20% wind, rest biomass or hydro
Washington’s Control of Energy
What to know about Trump’s national monuments executive order
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Apr 27, 2017
The sites are called national monuments, though they’re not monuments in the traditional sense.
[SEPP Comment: Ranging on land up to 1.9 million acres, the monument designations have prevented extraction of coal, oil, and uranium as well as other natural resources.]
Trump Approves Natural Gas Export Terminal In Bid For Energy Dominance
By Andrew Follett, Daily Caller, Apr 25, 2017
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Fracking isn’t contaminating groundwater, study finds
By Staff Writers, Fox News, Apr 25, 2017
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/04/25/fracking-isnt-contaminating-groundwater-study-finds.html
Link to paper: The geochemistry of naturally occurring methane and saline groundwater in an area of unconventional shale gas development
By Jennifer Harkness, et al, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, Jul 1, 2017
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016703717302004
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Anadarko shutting 3,000 wells in Colorado after home explosion
By Editors, Oil and Gas Journal, Apr 27, 2017
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2017/04/anadarko-shuts-3-000-wells-in-colorado-after-home-explosion.html
[SEPP Comment: A 1993 vertical well.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Nuclear Power Subsidies Threaten Wind and Solar Power… Proof That Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction
Guest post by David Middleton, WUWT, Apr 25, 2017
UK reactor takes first steps towards fusion
Britain’s newest fusion reactor has been fired up and taken the UK one step further towards generating electricity from the power of the stars.
By Staff Writer, Energy Voice, Apr 28, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/137847/uk-reactor-takes-first-steps-towards-fusion/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Why Renewables Cost More
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 25, 2017
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2017/04/25/why-renewables-cost-more/
[SEPP Comment: When comparing solar and wind with other forms of electricity generation, the total costs to the utility should be considered, not just capital costs.]
Concentrated solar power in the USA: a performance review
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Apr 24, 2017
http://euanmearns.com/concentrated-solar-power-in-the-usa-a-performance-review/
[SEPP Comment: Not ready for prime time.]
Environmentalists Are Dead Wrong
By Walter Williams, Townhall, Apr 26, 2017 [H/t Timothy Wise]
https://townhall.com/columnists/walterewilliams/2017/04/26/environmentalists-are-dead-wrong-n2317342
Greens Make Natural Gas Their Next Target
By Staff Writers, The American Interest, Apr 22, 2017
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/04/22/greens-make-natural-gas-their-next-target/
Natural Gas Moves to the Naughty List
By Jennifer Dlouhy and Mark Chediak, Bloomberg, Apr 20, 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-20/natural-gas-moves-to-the-naughty-list
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Event Planning Checklist
Berkeley Police Department
http://www.ci.berkeley.ca.us/Police/Home/Protest_101/Event_Checklist.aspx
[SEPP Comment: Do you want symbolic arrests? When and Where?]
More frequent and severe
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org. Apr 26, 2017
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/8065
“This is the world we have changed, and we have to live in it – the world that caused the 2003 heatwave in Europe that killed more than 50,000 people and the 2011 drought in Texas that caused more than $5 billion in damage. Such events, our data shows, will become even more frequent and more severe said James Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.” The Age, 7 Aug 2012 – screen copy held by this website [Boldface added.]
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ARTICLES:
Springtime Out of Paris
Staying in Obama’s climate accord risks Trump’s energy plans.
Editorial, WSJ, Apr 26, 2017
https://www.wsj.com/articles/springtime-out-of-paris-1493246903
SUMMARY:
President Trump and his advisers are debating whether to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accords, and the issue is coming to a head. If he doesn’t want to topple his own economic agenda, Mr. Trump’s wisest course is to walk away from a pact that President Obama never put before the U.S. Senate.
Mr. Trump wants to revive growth and lift wages (see above), and a large part of that project is a bet on liberating U.S. energy production, notably natural gas and oil. Toward this end Mr. Trump issued an executive order in late March asking the Environmental Protection Agency to unwind Mr. Obama’s Clean Power Plan.
The Obama team finalized CPP in late 2015, and the rule was immediately challenged in court by 28 states. Notable among the Obama Administration’s legal defenses is that CPP is essential to fulfill the U.S. commitments to reduce carbon emissions under Paris. By the end the White House cited Paris as the legal justification for all its climate policies.
EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt is moving to repeal CPP and other Obama climate rules. Environmental groups will inevitably sue. If the U.S. remains in Paris, Mr. Pruitt will have to explain to the many Obama appointees on the federal bench that gutting CPP is a reasonable exercise of administrative power in light of the Administration’s continued fealty to Paris carbon reductions. This is the sort of logical inconsistency that a creative judge might seize on to justify blocking Mr. Trump’s EPA rules. By staying in Paris Mr. Trump may hand opponents a sword to kill his agenda.
The left is also pointing to Section 115 of the Clean Air Act, which gives EPA a mandate to regulate emissions that “may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare in a foreign country.” The catch is that EPA can only act if there is regulatory “reciprocity” among the nations involved. Such as the Paris accords.
Mr. Obama knew he was setting these carbon political traps as he rushed to commit the U.S. to Paris. His bet was that even a future GOP President would be reluctant to endure the international criticism that would follow withdrawal. And sure enough, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and National Economic Council director Gary Cohn are making precisely this argument for staying in Paris.
Then again, Candidate Trump promised to withdraw, and he can’t possibly be vilified for Paris more than he already has for everything else. His advisers have presented a way to short-circuit the supposed four-year process for withdrawing, which involves U.S. resignation from the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.
This isn’t a question of science or diplomacy. For Mr. Trump, the question is whether he wants to put his economic agenda at the mercy of anticarbon warriors and federal judges.
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I found the revised Wallace, Christy, D’Aleo paper to be extraordinary. Clear, concise, easy to understand results, good graphics. Thanks…
You forgot that the Nenana Ice Classic tripod went down last week (Apr 23). 4th or 5th earliest, depending on if you take leap years into account.
Wrong – this year (2017) the tripod tripped on May 1st.