Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President
Upper Bound for 21st Century Warming: The Right Climate Stuff Team (TRCS) is a group of retired and highly experienced engineers and scientists from the Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle and International Space Station eras. They have volunteered their time and effort to conduct an objective, independent assessment of the carbon dioxide (CO2)-caused global warming to assess the reality of the actual threat, and separate that from unnecessary alarm. They have applied the techniques they learned for space missions to this task. A rough engineering analogy is how can they be confident that an astronaut will not cook or freeze in a space station or a space suit.
To do this, the TRCS created an energy flow model (energy balance or energy conservation model) that accurately correlates with empirical global surface temperature data, using HadCRUT surface temperature data since 1850. HadCRUT is a dataset of monthly instrumental temperature records formed by combining the sea surface temperature records compiled by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the land surface air temperature records compiled by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia. (Note: atmospheric temperature data from satellites only dates to 1979.)
The TRCS model even includes the heat flow from the molten core of the earth. It shows that global temperature is not significantly affected by increases in atmospheric CO2. An increase of CO2 to 570 parts per million (ppm) will result in a maximum increase in global temperatures of about 1.8K – far less than the general estimates by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers in the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), NOAA, EPA, etc. From ice cores, the estimated concentration of CO2 in 1850 was 285 ppm. So, the upper bound estimate in the TRCS model is at the low end of the 1979 estimate in the Charney Report of 1.5C with a doubling of CO2. The TRCS estimate is a maximum, and the actual result may be far less.
In a video, Harold Doiron, a principle modeler of the lunar lander, presents the TRCS team’s simple, rigorous earth surface model using principles established in Conservation of Energy. He shows how the model is validated using 165 years of atmospheric greenhouse gas data and HadCRUT surface temperature data.
As Doiron points out, at the last ice age maximum about 20,000 years ago, the CO2 concentration was about 180 ppm, near the 150ppm level that would result in the death of many green plants. Further, the safe limits for US submarines is 8,000ppm. (There are reports that concentrations in WW I & WW II submarines approached 40,000 ppm.)
Doiron discusses the widely accepted Kiehl – Trenberth general model stating that following it requires understanding of complex fluid dynamics and complex simulations of processes, which may or may not be correct. However, the estimates of the unknowns must be accurate within 2.5% to provide a useful result, an accuracy that is not attainable at this time. In his view as an Apollo engineer, Doiron states the approach is futile, and may never solve the problem. (As discussed in last week’s TWTW, there has been no progress made by this approach since 1979.)
Another problem with the IPCC approach is that it uses basically untestable concepts, such as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), which may take hundreds of years to be tested, and demonstrated to be false. Another problem with the IPCC approach is the free use of aerosols, previously discussed in TWTW, where the values (usually a cooling effect) may be adjusted to produce an acceptable result in the climate models, tuning them to past observations.
To avoid these issues, Doiron introduces the concept of Transient Climate Sensitivity (TCS) which is an empirically verifiable measurement for all greenhouse gases, as well as CO2 alone. TCS can be defined as the sum of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, feedbacks (water vapor and other positive and negative feedbacks) and aerosols. Doiron recognizes that his TCS may be too high, but it sets an upper bound. This upper bound is not scary.
The Right Climate Stuff Team has written to President Trump, the EPA, and others stating that models need to be validated by data, and the entire issue of the influence of CO2 on temperatures needs independent, objective review. In the past, such as after the Challenger disaster, NASA conducted such reviews, called non-advocacy reviews. No doubt, many entrenched alarmist government entities will bitterly oppose such a review. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Quote of the Week. “The greatest deception men suffer is from their own opinions.” ― Leonardo da Vinci
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Number of the Week: The year 1942
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Fat Tails Lead to Tall Tales: In his presentation, Doiron shows a graph of an EPA presentation with the possible distribution of increase in temperatures from use of fossil fuels of up to 10 degrees C.
Judith Curry has called such possible distributions fat tails. It is possible from these fat tails (no matter how unlikely). It is from these fat tails, we get tall tales of dire consequences of increased use of fossil fuels, such as:
· melting of the Himalaya Mountains by the 2040s (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) 2007),
· dire sea level rise of up to 8 feet by the end of the century (NOAA, January 2017),
· James Hansen’s skyrocketing sea level rise at the end of the century (NASA-GISS), etc.
A proper upper bound analysis will do away with these fat tails. Perhaps that is why no US government entity has done one, even though the US government has spent over $40 billion on what government reports classify as Climate Science since 1993. We will await to see what the new administration will do. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Late 20th Century Warming An Artifact? In his presentation at Heartland’s Twelfth International Congress on Climate Change (ICCC-12), Fred Singer presented data supporting his assertion that late 20th Century surface warming is largely a result of poor placement of instruments, and improper analysis – not an actual warming of the globe. The poor placement of instruments is largely from a shift to airports, which have undergone growth in air traffic; and in urbanization of surrounding areas.
Singer reports that the surface warming between 1910 and 1940 was genuine, and natural in origin. However, the reported warming between 1975 and 2000 as caused by CO emissions is not supported by 8 other datasets. These datasets include one from of the record high temperatures in the US from 1895 for 229 USHCN stations. The hottest years were clearly in the 1930s. The US had the most comprehensive coverage of surface temperatures of any country.
Another dataset is sea surface temperatures by Gouretski et al., which shows warming of the 30s, 40s, and 1950s was comparable to that of the late 20th century. A tree ring dataset by Jacoby, et al. (AAAS, 1996) shows a sharp increase in temperatures from about 1880 to 1940 but little or no increase since then. Further, data from Avam-Taimr, the Southern Colorado Plateau, and Mongolia show little or no unusual warming in the late 20th century.
Most compelling are the datasets from satellites and weather balloons which show that climate models, based on surface data, greatly overestimate the warming of the atmosphere. The satellite and balloon datasets are the only comprehensive temperature data existing.
From these Singer concludes there is no evidence for significant human-caused global warming, climate models and observations disagree, and that the human contribution to greenhouse warming is not significant. Thus, CO2 is not a pollutant. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy – ICCC-12.
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Hearing of House Committee on Science, Space and Technology: In his written testimony at the Committee hearing, Roger Pielke Jr. reported on the professional abuse he has suffered from members of Congress and from President Obama’s Science Advisor, John Holdren, who have chosen to politicize science and attack those who disagree. For Pielke, this attack included Rep. Grijalva (D-AZ) writing his university’s president demanding an investigation of possible funding of his work by Exxon-Mobil and the Koch Foundation, that Pielke may have failed to disclose.
Pielke stated that he has called for a carbon tax. Also, he has stated that CO2 influences the climate system, the climate system is subject to multiple human influence, our ability to see the future is limited, certainty is not forthcoming, and stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 does not stop climate change. For these practical views, Pielke was branded as a “Climate Heretic.” Such is the sense of climate science in Washington. Pielke is no longer involved in climate research.
In her written testimony, Judith Curry reiterates that Climategate prompted her to take a more skeptical view about climate science. She makes several important points including:
· ”Scientific progress is driven by the creative tension spurred by disagreement, uncertainty and ignorance.
· Progress in understanding the climate system is being hampered by an institutionalized effort to stifle this creative tension, in the name of a ‘consensus’ that humans have caused recent climate change.
· Motivated by the mandate from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the climate community has prematurely elevated a scientific hypothesis on human-caused climate change to a ruling theory through claims of a consensus.
· Premature theories enforced by an explicit consensus building process harm scientific progress because of the questions that don’t get asked and the investigations that aren’t undertaken. As a result, we lack the kinds of information to more broadly understand climate variability and societal vulnerabilities.
· Challenges to climate research have been exacerbated by:
o Unreasonable expectations from policy makers
o Scientists who are playing power politics with their expertise and trying to silence scientific disagreement through denigrating scientist who do not agree with them
o Professional societies that oversee peer review in professional journals are writing policy statements endorsing the consensus and advocating for specific policies
· Policymakers bear the responsibility of the mandate that they give to panels of scientific experts. The UNFCCC framed the climate change problem too narrowly and demanded of the IPCC too much precision – where complexity, chaos, disagreement and the level of current understanding resists such precision.
· A more disciplined logic is needed in the climate change assessment process that identifies the most important uncertainties and introduces a more objective assessment of confidence levels.
· Expert panels with diverse perspectives can handle controversies and uncertainties by assessing what we know, what we don’t know, and where the major areas of disagreement and uncertainties lie.”
See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
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After the Science Hearing: In remarks following the hearing, Judith Curry expressed disappointment and how Mr. Mann appeared to dominate the hearing. To Tim Ball this was not surprising.
“Mann took it [the House hearing] very seriously, was well prepared and exploited it for every political opportunity – he dominated the entire proceedings. He had the advantage of not caring or having to care about the truth. His performance was designed for most of the public who have no idea about what is true. He knows this works because that assumption has driven the juggernaut from the start.”
Tim Ball was sued in Canada by Mr. Mann, and forced Mann to withdraw the suit. He understands that showmanship and bluster frequently dominate in such venues, as do many members of Congress. For these reasons, when reporting on such hearings, TWTW emphasizes the written testimony, not the oral part too often dominated by showmanship and bluster. See links under Seeking a Common Ground, and Oh Mann.
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Number of the Week: The year 1942: Retired EPA scientist Alan Carlin listed seven examples of how environmentalists are making humans and the environment worse off under the guise of protecting the environment. One example was the EPA banning the use of DDT, which resulted in the efforts to ban it world-wide and the preventable deaths of millions of humans from malaria, particularly in less prosperous countries.
A critic falsely asserted the US was not a malarial nation. With the arrival of Europeans, then enslaved Africans, malaria became endemic in the US. According to the web site of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), “Malaria Control in War Areas (MCWA), the predecessor to CDC, was established in 1942 to control malaria around military training bases in the United States.” In the 1950s malaria was eradicated in the US, with the use of DDT and other measures. [Boldface added.]
In 1972, under Republican President Richard Nixon, the EPA banned DDT as a possible human carcinogen, without substantial physical evidence. In 2009, under Democratic President Obama, the EPA declared greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, endanger human health and welfare, without substantial physical evidence. The endangerment finding is used to justify efforts to curtail CO2 emissions, regardless of hardships it may place on humans, particularly in less prosperous countries.
Any government entity that proclaims a chemical or a process that is beneficial to humanity as a threat to human health, without substantial physical evidence, is not to be trusted, regardless of political affiliation of the administration. See links under Environmental Industry.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The five past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, John Kerry, Ernest Moniz and John Holdren are not eligible. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on July 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you. The award will be presented at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness in August.
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ARTICLES:
1. The Climate Yawns
Donald Trump is no more a planet wrecker than Barack Obama (as measured to the third decimal).
By Holman Jenkins, Jr. WSJ, Mar 31, 2017
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-climate-yawns-1491000224
SUMMARY: The Business Columnist writes:
“The oddest criticism of Donald Trump’s climate action this week was the claim, mentioned almost triumphantly by every news source, that it would save few coal jobs. The economic and technological forces, especially the flood of low-carbon natural gas from fracking, are just too powerful.
“Then why, if you’re a Democrat, put yourself in that position in the first place to take blame for killing coal jobs? Why enact a costly regulation to do what the market was doing for free? When everybody else wanted to blame the Florida recount for his 2000 defeat, Al Gore was smart enough privately to blame gun control. When you lose your home state as presidential candidate, something is wrong. The same blundering ineptitude explains how the Obama alliance with the greens threw away first Congress and then a presidency.”
“Gina McCarthy, Mr. Obama’s EPA administrator, admitted as much when confronted, during a 2015 House hearing, with the fact that, by the agency’s own climate models, the effect would be only 1/100th of a degree Celsius. Instead, she said success should be measured in terms of “positioning the U.S. for leadership in an international discussion.” [Boldface added]
“Even so, many climate activists felt the need to walk back Ms. McCarthy’s concession by insisting Obama policies would have a measurable effect—on the amount of CO 2 released. Yes, the relative decrease would be tiny but measurable, though the climate effect would be zip. This is akin to medical researchers claiming a drug a success because it’s detectable in the bloodstream, not because it improves health.
“And don’t get us started on the ‘social cost of carbon,’ a mechanism of policy justification created by the Obama EPA to assign a dollar-value benefit to carbon abatement rules that, in total, will produce zero impact on climate.
“Pile up all the government policies enacted or seriously on the table, and their net effect is zilch. A new McKinsey study, that would be hilarious if it weren’t so sad, points out that Germany’s switch to renewables has been a success by almost every metric except CO 2 output—which is up instead of down.
After discussing rising electricity prices in Germany, the columnist continues:
“No rational consideration, however, will abate the torrent of priestly imprecations hurled by green activists this week at Mr. Trump. The New York Times insists that Trumpian action “risks the planet”—plainly false since nothing either Mr. Trump or Mr. Obama did will make a difference to the planet.
“Literally no amount of money dissipated on climate policy is excessive to such people, because their shamanistic status is directly proportional to the social waste they can conjure….”
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
The next Carrington Event
By Roger Andrews, Energy Matters, Apr 7, 2017
http://euanmearns.com/the-next-carrington-event/#more-17851
Censorship
Climate Change Irony
By Sam Kazman, CNS News, Apr 6, 2017
http://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/sam-kazman/climate-change-irony
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Overcoming Chaotic Behavior of Climate Models
By S. Fred Singer, SEPP, July 2010
http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/Chaotic_Behavior_July_2011_Final.doc
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, NIPCC, Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The TRCS Climate Model
Video, Harold Doiron, The Right Climate Stuff Team, Jan 18, 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bj-FG5BJsGo&feature=youtu.be
Scientists Reveal How Man-Made Global Warming Is Created Via Data Manipulation, Dismissing The Sun
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 6, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Review of paper by Soon, Connolly and Connolly.]
More Fun with Not-so-Dumb Organisms and the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change
By Patrick Michaels and Craig Idso, CATO, Apr 5, 2017
https://www.cato.org/blog/more-fun-not-so-dumb-organisms-us-national-assessment-climate-change
“’If one of the best-studied model species can be found surviving far beyond its predicted environmental envelope, then our use [of] laboratory-based experimental results may underestimate the ability of polar organisms to cope with environmental change.’”
[SEPP Comment: Phenotypic plasticity is poorly understood and studied by those predicting species extinction from climate change.]
Winters not Summers increase Mortality and Stress the Economy – Updated
By Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae, ICECAP, Apr 5, 2017
Petition to the EPA
For Rulemaking on the Subject of Greenhouse Gases and Their Impact on Public Health and Welfare
By The Competitive Enterprise Institute and The Science and Environmental Policy Project, Feb 23, 2017
Challenging the Orthodoxy – ICCC-12
“Absence of GHG Warming in 20th Century Destroys IPCC Proof for AGW”
By Fred Singer, Founder, SEPP, ICCC-12, Mar 23, 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGpkfTyKMPo
Video
Defending the Orthodoxy
Twelve economic facts on energy and climate change
A joint report from The Hamilton Project and the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago
By Staff Writers, Brookings, Mar 27, 2017 [H/t Timothy Wise]
“Fact 3: Global temperatures would likely rise by another 14.5°F (8°C) if all remaining global fossil fuel resources were used.”
[SEPP Comment: Contradicted by the analysis by The Right Climate Stuff Research Team.]
What happens if the EPA is stripped of its power to fight climate change?
If Congress passes a law banning the EPA from regulating carbon dioxide, climate action will go to the courts.
By Natasha Geiling, Think Progress, Apr 3, 2017
https://thinkprogress.org/congress-epa-clean-air-act-greenhouse-gas-legal-7b1882673927
Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget
By Kiehl, J. T. and Trenberth, K. E., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1997
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/abstracts/files/kevin1997_1.html
“Because the net surface heat budget must balance, the radiative fluxes constrain the sum of the sensible and latent heat fluxes which can also be estimated independently.”
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Disingenuous Climate Science Debunked
By Dale Leuck, American Thinker, Mar 27, 2017 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2017/03/disingenuous_climate_science_debunked.html
You Ought to Have a Look: The Catastrophe of Climate Catastrophizing and Fun at the House Science Committee
By Patrick Michaels, Cato, Apr 3, 2017
Did the Obama White House Collude with a Politically Motivated Scientist?
By Julie Kelly, National Review, Apr 6, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Seeking correspondence between science advisor John Holdren and Tom Karl of NOAA who produced a controversial report on surface temperatures in time for Paris.]
Growing Skepticism: Already 150 New (2017) Scientific Papers Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarm
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 3, 2017
Got a theory that breaks a consensus? Expect aggressive silence. Snickering. Wait decades
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 3, 2017
Link to paper: Earliest Human Presence in North America Dated to the Last Glacial Maximum: New Radiocarbon Dates from Bluefish Caves, Canada
By Lauriane Bourgeon , Ariane Burke, and Thomas Higham, PLOS One, Jan 6, 2017
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0169486
After Paris!
Trump cuts show Paris treaty is a paper tiger:
By Bjorn Lomborg, USA Today, Mar 29, 2017
Change in US Administrations
Delingpole: EPA’s Scott Pruitt Gets Eaten Alive by Fox
By James Delingpole, Brietbart, Apr 2, 2017
EPA: ‘It is a mess’ — downsizing won’t be easy
By Kevin Bogardus, E&E News, Apr 5, 2017
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060052668
EPA chief says Paris climate agreement ‘bad deal’ for U.S.
By Valerie Volcovici, Reuters, Apr 2, 2017 [H/t Cooler Heads]
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climatechange-paris-idUSKBN1740NP
New EPA documents reveal even deeper proposed cuts to staff and programs
By Juliet Eilperin, Chris Mooney and Steven Mufson, Washington Post, Mar 31, 2017 [H/t Timothy Wise]
The changing world of climate change
With its rollback of climate rules, the Trump administration taps the brakes on the unsettled ‘settled science’
By Anthony J. Sadar and Susan Z. Forney, Washington Times, Apr 6, 2017
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/apr/6/climate-change-doubters-have-champion-in-donald-tr/
Trump Eyes Politicized Climate, Energy Budgets
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Mar 27, 2017
http://www.newsmax.com/LarryBell/epa-doe-noaa/2017/03/27/id/780911/
Social Benefits of Carbon
A beneficial climate change hypothesis
By Rud Istvan, Climate Etc. Apr 7, 2017
https://judithcurry.com/2017/04/07/a-beneficial-climate-change-hypothesis/#more-22959
Seeking a Common Ground
Statement to the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology
Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications and the Scientific Method
By Judith Curry, Mar 29, 2017
Statement of Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr
U, S. House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, March 29, 2016
We Won Climate Battles, but Are Not Winning the Climate War: Here’s Why.
Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball, WUWT, Apr 3, 2017
Science needs reason to be trusted
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 5, 2016
https://judithcurry.com/2017/04/05/science-needs-reason-to-be-trusted/
[SEPP Comment: Trust is the issue. Scientific institutions, government entities will not retain credibility if trust is lost.]
Why John Christy’s Missing Hotspot Matters
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 2, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/04/02/why-john-christies-missing-hotspot-matters/
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
The Unsuspecting Thermotolerance of an Antarctic Bivalve
Waller, C.L., Overall, A., Fitzcharles, E.M. and Griffiths, H. 2017. First report of Laternula elliptica in the Antarctic intertidal zone. Polar Biology 40: 227-230. Apr 7, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/apr/a14.php
Elevated CO2 Ameliorates the Negative Impact of Ozone Damage in Wheat
Abdelhaliem, E. and Al-Huqail, A.A. 2016. Detection of protein and DNA damage induced by elevated carbon dioxide and ozone in Triticum aestivum L. using biomarker and comet assay. Genetics and Molecular Research 15: DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.4238/gmr.15028736. Apr 4, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/apr/a2.php
Double Broodedness of Important Bird Species of Central Poland
Gladalski, M., Banbura, M., Kalinski, A., Markowski, M., Skwarska, J., Wawrzyniak, J., Zielinski, P. and Banbura, J. 2016. Effects of extreme thermal conditions on plasticity in breeding phenology and double-broodedness of Great Tits and Blue Tits in central Poland in 2013 and 2014. International Journal of Biometeorology 60: 1795-1800. Apr 3, 2017
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V20/apr/a1.php
“’such a buffer of plasticity may be sufficient for Blue Tits and Great Tits to adjust the timing of breeding to the upcoming climate changes.’”
Measurement Issues — Surface
March Air and Sea Temps
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Apr 4, 2017
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2017/04/04/march-air-and-sea-temps/
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for March, 2017: +0.19 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Apr 3, 2017
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/04/uah-global-temperature-update-for-march-2017-0-19-deg-c/
March 2017 Global Temperature Report
By Staff Writers, Earth Systems Science Center, UAH
http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/index.html
Study reveals the atmospheric footprint of global warming hiatus
By Staff Writers, Phys.org, Mar 3, 2017
https://phys.org/news/2017-03-reveals-atmospheric-footprint-global-hiatus.html#jCp
Atmospheric footprint of the recent warming slowdown
By Bo Liu & Tianjun Zhou, Scientific Reports, Jan 13, 2017
http://www.nature.com/articles/srep40947
“Growing body of literature has developed to detect the role of ocean heat uptake and transport in the recent warming slowdown between 1998–2013; however, the atmospheric footprint of the slowdown in dynamical and physical processes remains unclear.”
[SEPP Comment: Growing speculative literature is not evidence of existence.]
Changing Weather
April can see some Southern Hemisphere hurricane activity — but so far, 2016-17 season is quietest on record, by far. ACE 1970-2017:
By Ryan Maue, Via GWPF, Apr 3, 2016
http://www.thegwpf.com/quietest-hurricane-season-on-record/
Changing Seas
Partisan prosecutions: How state attorneys general dove into politics
By Walter Olson, New York Post, March 30, 2017
http://nypost.com/2017/03/30/partisan-prosecutions-how-state-attorneys-general-dove-into-politics/
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
The WMO’s Dubious Omissions…Arctic Of The 1930s And 1940s Just As Warm As Today!
Learning from the climate’s history: the Arctic heat waves of the 1930s and 40s By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt [German text translated/edited by P Gosselin], No Tricks Zone, Apr 4, 2017
Inconvenient finding: Melting sea ice may lead to more life in the sea
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 30, 2017
Changing Earth
Methane Hydrate: Killer cause of Earth’s greatest mass extinction
By Uwe Brand, et al., Palaeoworld, Dec 2016 [H/t Stephen Shipman]
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1871174X16300488
[SEPP Comment: Others suggest the extinction was caused by sulfuric acid released from the Siberian trap volcanism. Calculations from laboratory results show that today nearly the entire absorption band for methane is taken by water vapor.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Norm Borlaug Created The Green Revolution – And A Whole Lot Of Pro-Science Thinking
By Hank Campbell, ACSH, Mar 23, 2017
[SEPP Comment: A thank you to Norm Borlaug, who ignored the predictions of Paul Ehrlich, John Holdren, et al.]
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Changing jet stream, extreme weather linked to humans: study
New study finds strong link between humans and increased droughts and floods
By Johanna Wagstaffe, CBC News, Mar 28, 2017
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/changing-jet-stream-extreme-weather-linked-humans-1.4043390
Link to paper: Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events
By Michael E. Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf, Kai Kornhuber, Byron A. Steinman, Sonya K. Miller & Dim Coumou, Scientific Reports, Mar 27, 2017
http://www.nature.com/articles/srep45242
State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.
[SEPP Comment: The models fail to track atmospheric temperatures, but the study states they mirror surface temperatures? In the summer only?]
Extreme weather events linked to climate change impact on the jet stream
By Staff Writers, University Park PA (SPX), Mar 30, 2017
Lowering Standards
RFF’s Climate Anger (intellectual pollution hazardous too)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Apr 4, 2017
https://www.masterresource.org/resources-for-the-future-rff/rff-climate-debate-pollution/
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
U.S. climate site for kids fails test
By James Barrante, ICECAP, Apr 5, 2017
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/icing-the-hype/us_climate_site_for_kids_fails_test/
Questioning European Green
The Rising Trend of UK Industrial Electricity Prices
By John Constable, GWPF, April 4, 2017
http://www.thegwpf.com/the-rising-trend-of-uk-industrial-electricity-prices/
In other words, in 2007 the UK government estimated that the UK alone would bear between 25% and 40% of the total EU-wide cost of the Renewables Directive targets, a share disproportionate to its population and the size of its economy.
U.K. Said to Seek End for Clean Energy Goal That May Sour Brexit
By Jess Shankleman, Bloomberg, Apr 5, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Or the clean energy goals may have been a driving motivation for Brexit.]
Powerful Headwinds For Wind Energy…”If Milk Were Subsidized As Much”, It Would Cost $50/Gallon! [Germany]
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, April 5, 2017
Questioning Green Elsewhere
‘Sustainability Standards’ Open A Pandora’s Box Of Politically Correct Accounting
By Howard Husock and James Copland, IBD, Mar 24, 2017 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Non-Green Jobs
What NPR Misses About Energy Jobs In America
Guest post by David Middleton, WUWT, Mar 30, 2017
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/03/30/what-npr-misses-about-energy-jobs-in-america/
[SEPP Comment: Harnessed energy greatly expands productivity compared with muscle power from animals and humans.]
Funding Issues
Testimony on Federal Support for Developing, Producing, and Using Fuels and Energy Technologies
By Terry Dinan, CBO, Testimony, Mar 29, 2017 [H/t Timothy Wise]
“In fiscal year 2016, tax preferences provided the bulk of federal support for energy development, production, and use. Whereas tax preferences are estimated to have resulted in $18.4 billion in forgone revenues, lawmakers appropriated funds equal to about one-third of that amount—$5.9 billion—for DOE to fund the relevant spending programs.”
Litigation Issues
Partisan prosecutions: How state attorneys general dove into politics
By Walter Olson, New York Post, March 30, 2017
http://nypost.com/2017/03/30/partisan-prosecutions-how-state-attorneys-general-dove-into-politics/
New York, other states challenge Trump over climate change regulation
By Richard Valdmanis, Reuters, Apr 5, 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-climate-lawsuit-idUSKBN1772ZO
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Carbon Tax Foolishness
By Donn Dears, Master Resource, Apr 6, 2017
https://www.masterresource.org/dears-donn/carbon-tax-foolishness/
Don’t Be Fooled: Carbon Dividend Means Higher Taxes
By Richard Sigman, Real Clear Policy, April 03, 2017
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA scientific integrity office reviewing Pruitt’s comments on carbon
By Emily Flitter, Reuters, Mar 31, 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-epa-pruitt-carbon-idUSKBN1722SU
[SEPP Comment: Interesting, will the office include a review of the physical evidence for the endangerment finding?]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Gas Giants Share OPEC’s Shale Pain as U.S. Supply Flows East
By Dan Martaugh, Bloomberg, Apr 3, 2017
Three Charts Show Power Glut Holding Fast in Biggest U.S. Market
By Jonathan Crawford and Naureen Malik, Bloomberg, Apr 6, 2017
Energy Issues – Australia
South Australia to get $1bn solar farm and world’s biggest battery
System will include 3.4m solar panels and 1.1m batteries, with operations set to begin by end of 2017
By Staff Writers, The Guardian, UK, Mar 30, 2017
Lyon Solar $1b solar-battery farm for SA by Christmas
By Ben Potter, AFR Times, Mar 30, 2017
Energy Issues — US
A Pillar Of The Anti-Fracking Movement Takes A Hit. The Implications?
By Ken Silverstein, Forbes, Apr 3, 2017
[SEPP Comment: Setting aside a jury award based on deceit.]
Don’t Divest, Invest In Fossil-Fuel America
By Robert Bradley Jr. Forbes, Mar 30, 2017
New York skyscrapers adapt to climate change
By Catherine Triophe, New York (AFP) March 26, 2017
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/New_York_skyscrapers_adapt_to_climate_change_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Some architects have designed high-rises with integrated wind turbines. But, it appears gas turbines were preferred for electricity black-outs.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Shale Transforms the Global Gas Market
By Staff Writers, The American Interest, Apr 5, 2017
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/04/05/shale-transforms-the-global-gas-market/
“Or perhaps more accurately, American shale gas is helping to create a global gas market.”
Shale Is Helping America’s Trade Balance with China
By Staff Writers, The American Interest, Apr 6, 2017
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/04/06/shale-is-helping-americas-trade-balance-with-china/
India keen to explore shale gas resources
By Pramod Thomas, The New India Express, Apr 3, 2017
Return of King Coal?
As West Goes Green, China Dominates Global Energy Infrastructure Finance
By James Kynge, Financial Times, Apr 4, 2017
http://www.thegwpf.com/as-west-goes-green-china-dominates-global-energy-infrastructure-finance/
Chinese workers dig in Pakistan desert for coal
By Faseeh Mangi, Blomberg, Salt Lake Tribune, Apr 1, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.sltrib.com/home/5125912-155/chinese-workers-dig-in-pakistan-desert
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Westinghouse’s Bankruptcy Could be the End of Nuclear Hopes in US
By Diane Cardwell and Jonathan Soble, NYT, Via GWPF, April 3, 2017
http://www.thegwpf.com/westinghouses-bankruptcy-could-be-the-end-of-nuclear-hopes-in-us/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
‘Climate Protecting’ Palm Oil Backfires …Deforestation May Be Leading To Drought!
Climate Damaging Palm Oil: Rain Deficit in Amazon Due To Deforestation
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning And Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt [German text translated/edited by P Gosselin], No Tricks Zone, Apr 7, 2017
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Diesel drivers pay the price of green zealotry
Editorial, Daily Mail, UK, Apr 4, 2017
How we were hoodwinked by a green zealot: Ideologist behind the dash for diesel called C02 ‘worse than terror’
By Victoria Allen, Daily Mail, UK, Apr 5, 2017
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4380806/Man-dash-diesel-called-C02-worse-terror.html
“In 2004 he wrote in the journal Science: ‘In my view, climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today – more serious even than the threat of terrorism.’’
“Just over a decade ago the chemist warned that temperatures will rise to dangerous levels within decades, leaving large sections of Britain’s coastline under water, while 400 million people could go hungry.”
New in Urban Transportation
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 4, 2017
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2017/04/04/new-in-urban-transportation/
California Dreaming
California doubles down on stupid – Court upholds cap and trade program, new fuel tax coming
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 7, 2017
Divided Senate approves gas tax and vehicle fee increases to raise $5.2 billion annually for road repairs
By Patrick McGreevy, LA Times, Apr 6, 2017
New taxes not needed to repair California roads
Editorial, ChicoER, Apr 2, 2017 [H/t WUWT]
http://www.chicoer.com/opinion/20170401/editorial-new-taxes-not-needed-to-repair-california-roads
“The fact is, there’s already a gas tax and car registration fees. If the state would use those existing taxes for roads, the problem would be solved.”
“Gallagher makes a very good point when he says: ‘Over the last six years, state spending has increased by $36 billion, yet not a dime of this new revenue was spent to fix our roads. Over this same time period, billions of dollars specifically earmarked for transportation has been raided.’”
Health, Energy, and Climate
Amazing Progress
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 7, 2017
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2017/04/07/amazing-progress/
Oh Mann!
What is the ‘Hockey Stick’ Debate About?
By Ross McKitrick, Via Climate Audit, Apr 4, 2005
http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/McKitrick-hockeystick.pdf
[SEPP Comment: A reminder, an effort to suppress temperature variability, depicting stable temperatures for 900 years followed by skyrocketing temperatures.]
Another Manntastic claim: Extreme weather events linked to climate change impact on the jet stream
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 27, 2017
Reflections on Mark Steyn’s ‘A Disgrace to the Profession’ about Dr. Michael Mann
Guest essay by Rick Wallace, WUWT, Mar 29, 2017
Environmental Industry
Why “Environmental” Groups Have Gone Mad
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Apr 6, 2017
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/3491
Our History – Our Story
By Staff Writers, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Accessed April 7, 2017
https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/ourstory.htm
Other Scientific News
Book review: ‘Rigor Mortis’ reveals rampant sloppiness in science
By Erika Check Hayden, Spectrumn News, Apr 4, 2017 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Focus on biomedical science.]
How do plants make oxygen? Ask cyanobacteria
By Staff Writers, Pasadena CA (SPX), Mar 31, 2017
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/How_do_plants_make_oxygen_Ask_cyanobacteria_999.html
Link to paper: On the origins of oxygenic photosynthesis and aerobic respiration in Cyanobacteria
By Rochelle M. Soo, et al. Science, Mar 31, 2017
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6332/1436
Other News that May Be of Interest
Mixed Reality Changes How Engineers Work
By John Kosowatz, ASME.org, Mar 2017 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Which Is Worse: Postmodernism Or Anti-Intellectualism?
By Alex Berezow, ACSH, Mar 23, 2017
http://acsh.org/news/2017/03/23/which-worse-postmodernism-or-anti-intellectualism-11040
“Of course, that’s true, because nobody knows what postmodernism is. Even the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy agrees2. As the ultimate manifestation of intellectual and cultural relativism, postmodernism means whatever its adherents want it to mean.”
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
April Fools!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 1, 2017
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/04/01/april-fools/#more-27050
“In January 1970, Life reported, ‘Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….’”
[SEPP Comment: More predictions that failed.]
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Searching for solar panels farm ‘virus’
“A British drone company has pioneered the use of drones and thermal imaging cameras to make it possible for the first time to examine 100,000-panel solar farms.
The company can spot temperature differences which reveal faults in the photovoltaic cells that make up a solar panel. If left, these faults can spread like a virus through a row of connected panels costing millions of pounds in lost electricity generation over their 25-year lifespan.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/drone-surveyor-makes-hay-while-the-sun-shines-q0r6vt50z
Well, if it is a problem, now there’s a solution to it…
UK solar delivered a record amount of demand last Sunday, by the way. (20%, with another 20% from wind)
I thought the panels were the virus.
Panels are plague on the countryside.
“One example was the EPA banning the use of DDT, which resulted in the efforts to ban it world-wide and the preventable deaths of millions of humans from malaria, particularly in less prosperous countries.”
DDT has never been banned for use in fighting malaria… it is still in use for that in some places.
DDT was banned in general agricultural use due to environmental effects, not least those on birds of prey.
It was a de-facto ban since International aid and loans were often
linked to countries non-use of DDT.
The near-complete worldwide ban on DDT is estimated to have directly caused some 40 million deaths, many of them children. That makes the proponents of the DDT ban some of the worst mass murderers in history. It was long predicted that when the body count was added up, the DDT banners would claim a ban never happened.
*”There was never a ban, it was not a *total* ban”
*”There was no ban, the UN ban was not signed by *all* countries”
and on and on.
We have heard it all here.
Griff:
You are making excuses for, and providing cover, for some of history’s worst mass murderers.
Stop. Think about this one. Do you really want to be on that side of the issue?
You assume perhaps that no other means of combating Malaria was used or available?
and it has been used – e.g this on reducing use from 2009:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ddt-use-to-combat-malaria/
And are you denying that in general agriculturla use it caused great damage to wildlife?
In short, no, there was not mass murder from restricting DDT.
This myth persists, but it is untrue.
I’m betting he does “want to be on that side of the issue”. He does not seem to be interested in the truth or reality. So in his mind, he’s not on the wrong side. The dead are never his fault, even if there’e a straight line to that conclusion. Straight lines only count if they are trend lines on a temperature graph.
(Still waiting for Griff’s debate on the science. I offered.)
” Harold Doiron, a principle modeler ”
Should that be “principal”?