October 2016 Projected Temperature Anomalies from NCEP/NCAR Data

Guest Post By Walter Dnes

In continuation of my Temperature Anomaly projections, the following are my October projections, as well as last month’s projections for September, to see how well they fared.

Data Set Projected Actual Delta
HadCRUT4 2016/09 +0.775 +0.714 -0.061
HadCRUT4 2016/10 +0.729
GISS 2016/09 +0.95 +0.91 -0.04
GISS 2016/10 +0.87
UAHv6 2016/09 +0.408 +0.441 +0.033
UAHv6 2016/10 +0.362
RSS 2016/09 +0.493 +0.576 +0.083
RSS 2016/10 +0.376
NCEI 2016/09 +0.9352 +0.8869 -0.0483
NCEI 2016/10 +0.8799

The Data Sources

The latest data can be obtained from the following sources

Miscellaneous Notes

At time of posting, all 5 monthly data sets were available through September 2016. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data runs 2 days behind real-time. Therefore, real daily data through October 29th is used, and the 30th and 31st are assumed to have the same anomaly as the 29th.

October’s global NCEP/NCAR monthly anomaly has dropped to near July’s and August’s (2016) levels. October will be the first month since July 2015 that does NOT set a new record high anomaly for that specific calendar month. I.e. August 2015 was the hottest August in NCEP/NCAR data to that time; September 2015 was the hottest September to that time; October 2015 was the hottest October to that time, all the way through September 2016. NCEP/NCAR data goes back to January 1948.

The graph immediately below is a plot of recent NCEP/NCAR daily anomalies, versus 1994-2013 base, similar to Nick Stokes’ web page. The second graph is a monthly version, going back to 1997. The trendlines are as follows…

  • Black – The longest line with a negative slope in the daily graph goes back to mid-to-late July, 2015, as noted in the graph legend. On the monthly graph, it’s August 2015. This is near the start of the El Nino, and nothing to write home about. Reaching back to 2005 or earlier would be a good start.
  • Green – This is the trendline from a local minimum in the slope around late 2004, early 2005. To even BEGIN to work on a “pause back to 2005”, the anomaly has to drop below the green line.
  • Pink – This is the trendline from a local minimum in the slope from mid-2001. Again, the anomaly needs to drop below this line to start working back to a pause to that date.
  • Red – The trendline back to a local minimum in the slope from late 1997. Again, the anomaly needs to drop below this line to start working back to a pause to that date.

NCEP/NCAR Daily Anomalies:

test96

NCEP/NCAR Monthly Anomalies:

test96

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commieBob
October 31, 2016 6:08 pm

The maximum value of the latest El Nino is 0.6°C greater than that for the 1998 El Nino.
I find my credulity somewhat strained.

Bindidon
Reply to  commieBob
November 1, 2016 4:34 am

The maximum value of the latest El Nino is 0.6°C greater than that for the 1998 El Nino.
No, commieBob. What you should have written is that the maximum NCEP/NCAR anomaly during the latest El Niño is 0.6 °C greater than that during the the 1998 El Niño.
That’s quite a bit different. A look at the following charts (Multivariate Enso Index, UAH6.0beta5) might convince you.comment image
Here you see that the ENSO events in 1982/83 and 1997/98 were quite a bit stronger than that of 2015/16.comment image
The same holds for UAH in the tropical regions in comparison with the Globe.

Tom Halla
October 31, 2016 6:20 pm

It does look like 1997 El Niño temperatures have been “adjusted”.

Ian
October 31, 2016 8:40 pm

If I was a chartist on the stock market I would be selling (graph 2)

tony mcleod
Reply to  Ian
November 1, 2016 1:26 am

You’ve been selling since Jan 1997.

ripatheism
November 1, 2016 3:19 am

AGREE, no SAT data on 40”s or 30’s, etc. They can only show trends, not precision to a tenth of a degree C

ShrNfr
Reply to  ripatheism
November 1, 2016 9:46 am

Still wish that somebody would grab the NEMS and SCAMS data from the 1970s and extend the record back for a number of years. Yeah, they are not the latest and greatest, but they did give global microwave sounder numbers where we have none.

Editor
November 1, 2016 6:11 am

The preliminary UAH anomaly is in http://www.drroyspencer.com/2016/11/uah-global-temperature-update-for-october-2016-0-41-deg-c/ The value is +0.41 (somewhere between +0.405 to +0.414) versus my projection of +0.362.

November 1, 2016 6:10 pm

Anthony,
I understand the need for ads and I am OK with it, But, here in Texas anyway they are making your blog nearly unreadable. I will endeavor to persevere, but……..there are others who may not love your site as much as I do.

Editor
November 6, 2016 7:24 am

RSS came in at +0.350 versus my projection of +0.376.

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