Yesterday on Twitter, Chip Knappenberger coined the term “landicane” to describe the low pressure center that has been gyrating over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico for days has now dropped very heavy precipitation over southeastern Louisiana. Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. has added in the exchange that his previous research points out that wet and marshy area (of which much of Louisiana Bayou is) can sustain tropical development. The only thing missing from this system is well defined rotation and an eye. Otherwise it might actually pass for a tropical storm.
NASA/JAXA/Hal Pierce
NASA Goddard has been using the Global Precipitation Measurement mission, or GPM core satellite, gathered rainfall data on the system and looked at it in three dimensions.
Up to 10 inches (254 mm) of rain since Thursday, Aug. 11, has already caused flooding in parts of the state. Today, Aug. 12 the National Weather Service issued flash flood warnings for many parts of southeastern Louisiana. Much of the New Orleans area is under a flood watch until Saturday morning, Aug. 13.
The GPM core observatory satellite flew directly above some very intense Louisiana storms on Aug. 11 at 10:26 p.m. EDT (Aug. 12, 2016, at 0226 UTC). Rainfall estimates in these storms were calculated using the satellite’s Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) instruments. GPM’s radar (DPR Ku band) measured rain falling at a rate of over 3.9 inches (100.1 mm) per hour in one intense downpour.
At NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, a 3-D image and animation were created using the GPM data. The 3-D structure of rainfall within the Louisiana thunderstorms during the evening of Aug. 11 was measured by GPM’s Radar (DPR Ku Band). DPR found that a few storm tops were reaching heights of over 9.9 miles (16 km). The GPM core observatory satellite gave further evidence of the power within these storms when it found that radar reflectivity values of over 53 dBZ were returned by some intense showers.
GPM is a joint mission of NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.
For updates on the area forecasts, visit the National Weather Service website: http://www.weather.gov.
###
There’s been a system spinning around in the Pacific off the west coast of Canada, spewing storm after storm across the prairies. I’m not sure I even remember what it’s like to have my car clean for more than a few hours. They’ve been hitting from the south, the north, the east, the west, and even turning while tracking through.
For the first time in a long time my lawn is not just well watered, but basically just soggy.
Weather is entertaining, especially when almost daily I hear someone say it’s “so unusual”.
I don’t know the geographical extent of the core heavy rainfall, but does this not resemble an ‘atmospheric river’?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_river
Tonyb
It does not resemble a TS either.
Hmm, a cyclone without rotation. No rotation, no high wind speeds, another key and defining feature of a tropical storm or hurricane. So it is a torrential rain storm.
So perhaps Chip could put his nauseatingly silly new word back where he found it.
This storm moisture is driven by one, look here to see the moisture content.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-91.54,15.49,403
This system was an upper level cold core low, and was spinning off the Big Bend area of Florida since the end of July. Much of the rain stayed offshore of Florida, but enough spun onshore to produce epics rains in West Central, North, and even here in SW Florida, including significant rains in Ocala, Gainesville, and the Tampa-St Pete areas.
The amounts which fell out over the open Gulf last week were astounding.
As a cold core upper low, this system is categorically not tropical in it’s origin, although perhaps it may have morphed and taken on tropical characteristics…I have been too bust at work this past week to follow it as it moved away…was surprised to here it has caused such flooding in such a short time…heavy daily rains are actually normal in this region this time of year.
I wonder why and how such systems can persist for so long…why does not the cold core aloft warm up, or the low “fill in”, after literally more than two weeks of continuous inflow and convection?
I love weather analysis, always have, but it seems the science is now mostly overlooked in favor of spin and hype over a good disaster story.
Flooding in Louisiana surely this is unprecedented ? Worst ever maybe ?
It’s a Low
Auto
There is in fact rotation, it has just not crossed over into “well defined,” whatever that is. I’ve been watching it for days, since I have a project in the area.
Generally cloudburst — like that of Mumbai few years back — will not have an eye or rotating. They occur under certain weather conditions limiting to a small region. They occurred very frequently over Himalayan zones.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
We have had a fairly cool, wet summer in Saskatchewan with only one or two days in the 30’s. More interesting I think is that it has been wetter on average for about 15 years. There are a number of lakes that have no outlets and are flooding substantial areas of land. Still, looking for bumper crops. Another climate disaster. Not!
Those kind of lakes are called playa takes in West Texas.
…lakes…
@codetech
John Muir had a really interesting chapter about observing big storms in the Sierras, including viewing one from up in a tall tree.
http://vault.sierraclub.org/john_muir_exhibit/writings/the_mountains_of_california/chapter_10.aspx
BTW I expect that most of the viewers here are mature enough to not have problems separating this great story by Muir from the highly politicized agendas of some who consider themselves to be his followers–including the organization that published the account at the link above.
Tropical air masses contain amazing amounts of water and when an afternoon storm just happens to pass over you at it’s maximum, the resulting downpour is as they say, “awesome”. I’ve been through hurricanes and many an isolated line of these storms, but I can’t imaging one stalling overhead and doing this for hours and hours.
That,is what Houston had earlier this year.
rbabcock said:
Well now, “hours and hours” is an exceptionally long time for a “cloudburst” type rain storm to linger over a given area …… but given the “right” surrounding atmospheric conditions, and especially a “high” moisture feed, and it can easily occur, resulting in flash-flooding, etc.
For instance, when the “water laden” remnants of that Gulf of Mexico “low pressure” area storm decides to “track” northward up the Mississippi River “water shed”, ….. its normal path will then be north-by-northeast up the Ohio River “water shed”, ….. past Cincinnati and on to Pittsburg ….. and then to eastern New York and the New England states with rainfall all along the way. But West Virginia will get very little to none of the rainfall because the mountains will deflect it north toward Pittsburg. Such as denoted in “red” on this map, to wit:
http://www.steamboats.org/assets/images/traveller/map-ohio-river.jpg
BUT, iffen there is a “high pressure” area approaching from the north-northeast of Cincinnati …. it will likely, per se, “block” that north-by-northeast movement of said “moisture laden” low pressure area …… and force it into and/or up-over the West Virginia mountains, …. resulting in a “decrease in air temperature”. And that decrease in temperature will cause severe rain events with copious amounts of rainwater falling upon the surface.
And those “severe rain events” will normally not last very long ….. but will quickly move farther eastward into Virginia,
BUT, …… iffen there is a 2nd “high pressure” area that is residing or “stalled” over or just off the East coast (of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware) …. it might also block” the eastward movement of the aforesaid West Virginia “moisture laden” low pressure area … and those storms will stall there for several hours in “one (1) locale” and the rainfall amounts will be akin to “a milk cow peeing on a flat rock” …… and “flash flooding” will surely result …. simply because the stream and/or river channels are restricted by their “outflow volume” capacity.
Like so, to wit:
Read more @ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_West_Virginia_flood
A few less “fan-phrase suspect quotes” might be nice. But the rest of what you wrote is on the money…
@ GoatGuy,
I don’t have a clue what you meant by …… “fan-phrase suspect quotes”, …… but that’s OK because I’m just an ole fert and have been a “student of the natural world” for the past 70+ years and am not familiar with all of the “trash talk” of the younger generations.
Sam C, an old computer dinosaur, ….. AB – Physical and Biological Science, GSC 62’
I have had normal pop up thunderstorms form and rain out over me here in Florida at least twice in the past three years, and on one occasion two summers ago, one dropped over a foot of rain on my in a few hours. My place was inundated for weeks while it soaked in/dried up, swales full, and over half my 3.5 acres of palm and fruit trees was flooded…but two blocks away in each direction…no standing water at all. The cell must have only been about a mile across.
Looking at an engineering chart, it shows that air at 75 degrees can hold 1.5 pounds of water per 1000′ feet, so in a vertical column of air one foot square and just 1000′ feet high, there can be about a fifth of a gallon of water. At 8 gallons or so per cubic foot, that is 1/40th of a foot of water, or nearly 1/3 of an inch.
So just a mile of warm humid air can hold nearly two inches of rain at the modest dew point of 75 degrees!
* this was done back of the envelope style in my head…someone correct me if I am wrong.*
http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/moisture-holding-capacity-air-d_281.html
Very old term. System in summer of 2003 that went through Ohio and Pa with well developed warm core like structure was referred to as land cane. Remarkable feedback . Also this is similar to what happened to Allison, though that had much stronger winds, when she came through southern Louisiana after being over Texas for 4 days. In short, been there done that. Here is article on Land Cane in 2003 ( which this may try to pull on its way northeast into the lakes btw, keep an eye on it) http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/landcane.html many of were referring to it as a landcane at the time, I know the company I was working for was. So perhaps calling it a landicane is a subtle difference. My son who was 8 at that time prepared report for his 3rd grade class and his grandpa calling it just that.
Here is Allisons track through southern Louisiana where an eye like structure developed. BTW we say Danny in 1997 come back to life over land as it moved toward water. You also see weaker systems maintain intensity inland if there is still favorable inflow and great upper support. Last year Bill did, Erin in 2007 I believe and Dean in 1995.
Sorry, here is what I wanted to show, Allisons eye over land
As always, good info Joe,
The most noteworthy landcane I recall was the remnants of Hurricane Ike in Sept. 2008. The most damage from Ike was from hurricane force winds to the east of the rapidly moving remnant center across the Eastern Midwest that featured a unique situation. Ike was quickly picked up, bodily by a strong upper level trough to its north and quickly accelerated northeast at 40 mph. Additionally, Ike maintained enough integrity so that it also had its own 35 mph surface circulation. When winds aloft were transported downward, the 40 mph track speed was added to the 35 mph speed on the eastern side of Ike(where the components were both from the southwest) and we had widespread 75 mph+ winds over numerous states.
Here in Indiana, east of track, the unharvested portion of the mature, top heavy corn crop (and vulnerable with weakening stalks) was blown down. It was the worst wind damage event ever for our corn. Same thing in Ohio.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Ike_in_inland_North_America
Like Ike, the current “landcane” has a Bermuda high in the Southeast that will steer/force it north the next couple of days. It should maintain some of its tropical characteristics but there is no deep upper level trough to pick it up this time(which caused the 40 mph speed aloft with Ike). It may develop a surface circulation with some modest wind but not like Ike. We may be able to see a circulation aloft or on a radar loop as it tracks very slowly north on Sunday and Monday. On Tuesday, the remnants will curve northeast to eventually eastward around the periphery of the then, weakening Bermuda high.
Heavy/excessive rains will be the main feature especially because of the very slow movement the next 3 days. The excessive rain targets are in Louisiana now, then north into Arkansas tomorrow, into Missouri, then curving northeast into Illinois/Indiana/Ohio by Monday/Tuesday.
10 inches of rain will be possible in some locals. This has the potential to do a bit of damage to the soybean crop under the heaviest rains, which does not do as well with excessive rains as corn. The markets were not threatened on Friday, as the USDA, with its August crop report, projected another record smashing crop year………..as the best climatic growing conditions in the most fertile agricultural production area on the planet, the US Cornbelt (looking at the last 3 decades) in history continue…………despite the increase in excessive rain events during that time.
The animation is of a 3D view (rotating) view of a static display. Very useful to show the proto-circular features, and the potential for a low pressure center.
But.
Does this landicane rotate? Or would it only begin a rotation feature if left in one place for 24-36 hours?
The opposite seems to be true of hurricanes. A very broad low pressure region forms off of Africa over hot water. Then that very broad region seems to begin rotating first, then it contract towards a small area that then focuses on a the circulating smaller rain bands around the LP center.
Here, the rainy center has formed around a very, very tiny low pressure point – more like a huge single storm.
Landicanes Largely Linger in Louisiana, Lancaster and Louisville..
[Leaving laudable loud libations liberally liquidated. .mod]
LOL
Lovely.
Hey, Joe Bastardi…I remember listening to you back in 1975 on the Penn State radio station. Student meteorologist, Joe Bastardi.
July in British Columbia was right on the temperature and precipitation long term averages, a very, very normal summer.
A normal summer–by which you mean quite unusual, yes? Actually, what you mean is “average.” Weather doesn’t have a norm (=what it’s supposed to be), only an average. If BC had an average July, I think you could check back and find that it is one of the few truly average months. July here in central Virginia was within a tenth of a degree of the 30-year average–by far the closest of any month since I’ve been keeping records (not long–July of 2013–but still, in 35 or 36 months, only one has been that close to average).
Despite your objection, the word “normal” is used widely regarding weather — since 1935.
Here is one example:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/temp_graphs.php?stn=KYKM&submit=Change+Station&wfo=pdt
From those charts:
Yesterday (and today – Sat) have high temperatures, but not near records. Contrast this with June 5, 6 & 7 when hot is not so common as in August. Apply your own terms, if you like, but the National Weather Service and many others use the term “normal.”
Using normal when you mean average is all part of the CAGW word game, like temperature “anomaly”.
It implicitly make the claim that whatever is being reported as being different from the average over some arbitrarily chosen period is ABNORMAL. It’s all part of the incessant spin to misrepresent any divation from a totally flat record as being “yet more proof” of CAGW.
That any particular value is numerically different from the average is what would be “normal” situation. So John M. Ware is quite correct. This use of “normal” is incorrect and misleading.
If NWS use it in this way they are bing incorrect and misleading.
Yes indeed. Many places have either wet years or dry years…very few average years.
This seems to be the case in Florida, although mostly in the dry season part of the tally, and in places like CA or TX, often very dry, sometimes very wet, not very commonly even rains spread out evenly over space and time.
‘Twas ever thus.
I think most warmistas are people who have not paid much attention to weather and history over the years.
well you’ve got to give it to the environmentalists they have got people besides farmers and sailors to talk about the weather.
It is traditionally always part of a polite way of making conversation with a stranger in the UK to talk about the (frequently bad) weather.
It goes something along the lines
-“Turned our nice again?.”
-“Yes, better than yesterday which was barely shite, just like most days. You’re from the BBC or down-South, aren’t you.”
After a few decades writing about it, you might even get lucky enough for the BBC to feature you in a ‘gritty Northern drama’ where the producers afterwards go back down south and write cries of cultural disdain about uncouth Northerners, and great lamentations of despair about Brexit in the Guardian.
And the ponces at the the Met Office will still promise us our Mediterranean Climate at some point after we are dead.
Here in NE Oregon I worked with a warmist who breathlessly followed everything the
Weather Channel had to say about AGW., She wondered why I moved from the Oregon
Coast when “In a few years Coos Bay will like Malibu.” “What?” Said I. “You know a lot warmer, we’ll be like Northern Arizona!! here in NE Oregon.” ‘Well we already are
dry,hot Summers and cold snowy winters.-for the most part.” As I explained to her,
She then said : “Why did you move back?” ‘Afraid of Coastal flooding?” I said:”Yes
from the inevitable Tsunami that is the result of the Cascadia fault mega quake.”
:Which by the way, is more likely than Coos Bay turning into Malibu..”
BTW her husband took a Job in Fairbanks…
Haha spot on.
Chip Knappenberger coined the term “landicane” ……. nope
what a ridiculous term – consequently are hurricanes over water now watericanes – daft.
I first thought landicaine was a type of pain reliever. Something a farmer would take after many hours out in the fields.
Guess anything can be a ‘cane’ if a windless, eyeless, rotation-less rain storm can be. So if beach erosion was the main concern, would that make the thing a “Lido-cane”?
My wife volunteers for the Red Cross and is often deployed to flood emergency areas. Last month it was West Virginia. If they call her to New Orleans I will go with her and set up a base of operations for myself in the French Quarter.
Magnifique!
Make it the Acme Oyster House.
I was thinking The Royal House. Their char broiled oysters are wonderful.
Not really oyster season right now, guys. The soft shelled crabs are looking nice, though. In any case, Mr. Skeptic, your wife is most likely to be deployed to Lafayette as a result of this storm. NOLA got some rain, minor street flooding, but nothing like north and west of here.
Greg
My wife can go to Lafayette. I will go to NOLA. Crabs, oysters…I’ll eat anything they make there!
Common occurrence. After the Indian Monsoons, Tropical Cyclones occasionally develop
over the hot land surface waters there. In 1971, Tropical Depression/Storm/ Hurricane Fern developed over the Southeast Louisiana swamp land. Nothing new.
Over a foot of August rainfall in the vicinity of Mobile after our latest daily deluge.
Drier days ahead.
How long before eco-terroists,or just plain greedy pricks/prickesses start screaming global warming,even when it is just a localized system. Hell,last week in Calgary,they got 6 weeks worth of rain in 2 hours. Happened before,will happen again. In Edmonton,we’ve had t-storms every day/evening for 10 days straight. All the millennials are GW and end of the world,until you convince them to talk to an old-timer (over 65). Happened many times before, and will happen again. You know,the CAGW/AGW/GW crowd really should be charged with crimes against humanity,especially in 3rd world countries.
There will likely be some extensive misery from this storm system. Is rain in southern Louisiana unprecedented? Google “May third flood 1978” and you will get your answer. After 8-10 inches fell in a few hours I was able to make it back to my porch on St. Charles Avenue to watch the procession of men in three-piece suits walking home in knee-deep water with briefcases balanced on their heads.
Weather can be brutal at any time in any place, as anyone who has been struck by lightning and survived may tell you.
In May 1995 we got 18 inches in 3 hours (!)
Yes, Bob Breck’s current blog entry notes that event. Notice his comment on hurricane Danny which dumped over 40 inches of rain ( > one meter!!) on the Mobile area.
http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/
For more background on typical May flooding:
http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/2008/04/may-3rd-flood-2.html
You know i once saw the funniest thing with Breck back in ’98 with the coverage of hurricane georges which missed the city, but caused a first mass evacuation (so i was told…). It was the lead up to a saints/colts game (peyton’s first season) and Breck came on a bit perturbed. He angrily said that some one had just emailed the station asking, “when are you going to be done with this weather CRAP so we can watch the saints?”. Breck was pretty ticked off and snarled in reply, “don’t worry, you’ll get your game!”
I lost a pair of new shoes in the May 1978 flood. Left them on a stoop to wade to my car to check on it and some as*hole in a pickup roared through the street at 20mph. His wake washed those shoes away, and i never saw them again!
That’s Naturally N’awlins !
Mea Culpa….”All the millennials are GW” should be “All the millennials are SCREAMING GW”
More coffee!
https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/brown-ocean-can-fuel-inland-tropical-cyclones/#.V68vPegpDMI
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_ocean_effect
Might want to fix the title… “landicaine” might be construed as a reference to the dufus tagging along behind Hillary…
If that system initialized a few hundred miles South we would have had a Cat 3 raking the coast for a week from Florida West. The LLC was clearly visible in N FL last weekend. Hopefully it has had a positive impact on lowering the TCHP in the area.
It did have an impact.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/gohhp.gif
Yes we on the west coast of Florida were watching it then and it did produce lots of rain down to about Port Charlotte. It was well forecast to do exactly what it is doing.
Tom, you might remember…
What was the hurricane in your area that got stronger over land?
It’s been so long since the last hurricane in these parts, I don’t remember. Or it could just be my mind is shot.
Found it…it was Fay in 2008…got stronger over land as it traveled up the state
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/2588788/Tropical-storm-Fay-gathers-strength-over-Florida.html
…stronger is a relative term…land resistance can make the eye tighten up/spin down….making it “stronger”
Fay was a very wet tropical storm, not a hurricane when it flooded parts of Florida.
Land has too much friction to sustain hurricane force winds for long…usually.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2008_charts_zoom/at200806.gif
They’re currently using helicopters to pluck people out of trees and off roofs.
Note that the Climate Prediction Center (NOAA’s CPC) made an August forecast on 31 July showing the area as “brownish” — with a large B for “below normal” during August.
[The number shown is “40” — I don’t know how exactly I am to make sense of this; maybe a 60% chance it won’t be below normal. Thus, expect wet?]
John,
I see how one would be confused by the definition. I’ll let them state it from here. I think that most people are not concerned with the exact probability number but will key off of the area under different shades. Brown is below precip, green is above for instance, no shade means close to average odds(normal rains if you want) . If you have darker shades embedded within, then it means an increase in the odds. Of course, you knew this already. Sorry for the caps but I think the NWS is going to change that soon:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/tools.html
A FORECAST PROBABILITY OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL IN THE THREE-
CLASS SYSTEM IMPLIES A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION IN THE PROBABILITY OF THE
OPPOSITE CLASS AND A FIXED PROBABILITY (AT 33.3%) OF THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS FOR
PROBABILITY ANOMALIES UP TO 30%. FOR PROBABILITY ANOMALIES GREATER THAN 30% OF
ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL THE PROBABILITY OF THE OPPOSITE CLASS IS FIXED AT 3.3%
(A -30% ANOMALY) AND THE PROBABILITY OF THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS IS REDUCED BY THE
EXCESS FORECAST PROBABILITY ANOMALY OVER 30%. NOTE THAT THIS IS ONLY A CRUDE
APPROXIMATION OF THE TRUE PROBABILITY OF THE NON-SPECIFIED CLASSES AND IS
GENERALLY LESS ACCURATE FOR EXTREME SHIFTS (20% OR MORE) IN THE PROBABILITY
ANOMALY OF THE MOST LIKELY CLASS.
EXAMPLES: FORECAST PROBABILITY ANOMALIES OF 20%, 30% AND 40% FOR ABOVE NORMAL
IMPLY PROBABILITIES FOR ALL THREE CLASSES (ABOVE – NEAR – BELOW) OF 53.3% – 33.3%
– 13.3% — 63.3% – 33.3% – 3.3% AND 73.3% – 23.3% – 3.3% RESPECTIVELY.
OCCASIONALLY THE FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THE OBSERVATION
FALLING IN THE MIDDLE CLASS. WHEN THIS OCCURS – HALF OF THE INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF THE MIDDLE CLASS IS SUBTRACTED FROM EACH OF THE EXTREMES.
This is an organized system. In some ways it resembles an inside out hurricane; it has a vertical wall that is well defined on the outside of the system; it has a feed of moisture from the South and it has what appears to be a vent, the high peak areas of rain. It also has a hole near the vent. Organization occurs when there is pressure creating flow. The flow tends to organize as additional flow tends to join existing flow because it is the path of least resistance.
Try this one. More like 30 inches, but different setup.
Hazen, H. A. 1899. Extraordinary rainfall in Texas. Month. Weath. Rev. 27(6):249.
Next, landiphoons!
Whatever it’s called, we could certainly use one here in New Hampshire. It’s been very dry this year. So dry the cows are giving powdered milk.
Heavy rain is forecast for much of the northeast US as moisture from two systems tracks east and northward over the next week or so.
That sounds hopeful. Believe it when I see it though.
https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/northeast-drought-relief-rain-flooding
“Mary had a tin cow
She milked it with a spanner*.
The milk came out in shilling** tins
And small ones, for a tanner***”
*US: Wrench
**Think ‘Dime’
***Think 5c…
Gator-nado!
We get these in Australia quite a lot.
Mackay February 2008: 26 inches in 4+ hours caused huge local flooding. Toowoomba 2011: ??? inches in not very long (a couple of hours) caused a deadly flash flood in Toowoomba and the “inland tsunami” at the bottom of the range which took many lives at Grantham. Cloud bursts are not unusual in tropical and sub tropical areas.
That “deadly flash flood” in Toowoomba was mostly due to local politicians having turned the creek that goes straight through the town center into a park and parking areas. Apparently nobody considered what might have caused that creek to lie just there….
One of the things that make this a remarkable anomalous event is the area into which this massive rainfall fell. There weren’t just a few rain gauges registering >=20″ over a few hours. This extended across a wide area of the state.
People in Louisiana saying “We have never seen anything like this” will have to excuse my guffaws of laughter at their non-existent memory.
It reminds me of that skit on SNL about Mr. Short Term Memory.
How many times in the past year alone have the headlines from one place or another screamed about record flood crests, only to have it turn out it is only a record FOR THAT PARTICULAR DATE?
I do not know if that is the case here, but since this sensationalistic writing is done so often, it is hard to take it very seriously just because someone said it.
I feel for the people who live near these flooded rivers, but if you live near any river, let alone one in a place like Louisiana, you damn sure better have flood insurance out the wazoo, and not be so in love with anything in your home that you will not be happy to have it replaced with new stuff after your claim is settled.
If you do not want to ever be flooded…move someplace that never floods, i.e. not near a river in a state known for vast swamps, hurricanes and biblical rain events!
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/gulf-coast-flooding-latest-news-0
Pardon my French, but you don’t know what the hell you’re talking about.
In general, or regarding something specific?
Larry Fine: check what happened in 1927 for example.
…when the Mississippi flooded to 60 miles wide south of Memphis, and cut a new path to the gulf. You can see the scar on Google Earth…
tty,
Regarding 1927, are you referring to the flooding caused by storm surge and then by dikes and levees breaking along rivers and a lake? And if so, i don’t see your point?
Steve,
The 1927 Memphis flood was due to broken levees.
This event in Louisiana was unprecedented rainfall across a 2,000 square mile area of the state. The rainfall totals of 1′ to 2′ and more weren’t localized, and every river gauge that I saw in that box broke records, and some by as much as 5′.
This was the perfect storm that’s just never happened before. Meteorologists said a High pressure system on the East Coast was pumping moisture into this Low while wedging against the jet stream. And the jet stream was preventing it from moving north, so it was also sucking moister out of the Gulf of Mexico.
This map speaks for itself.
https://weather.com/maps/monthly-precipitation-estimate
Larry Fine. On April 15 1927 New Orleans got 15 inches of precipitation in eighteen hours.
Unprecedented?
Menicholas,
It’s bad form to mock people who are suffering. Secondly, the NWS said this was unprecedented. And third, here are some hydrography of river stages, and in the affected area, every record was broken and by several feet.
The people down in Louisiana and at the NWS know exactly what they’re talking about, regarding this event.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lmrfc/?n=amite/comiteriversandlakepontchartrainbasins
For the last two weeks, the NWS, via “Accu”weather, have been sending me small craft warnings and gale warnings via the “Accu”weather app. The winds here have been extremely average, nothing above 10kts. Yet they keep generating these forecast “warnings”. You’ll forgive me if I have very little faith in the NWS.
Jeff,
I share your mistrust of the Global Warming crowd, but as the water closes in on my house, I can testify that this neighborhood hasn’t flooded since it was built during the Korean War because it’s miles from the rivers that are flooded. And there are a lot of other people in the same amazing predicament today.
Pray for us!
I’m going to start calling this endless sunshine over Southern California a “Solarcane!” Maybe then I can get some attention.
LA is mostly swamp for a reason. This is a monsoon.
Most coastal gulf state homes are on stilts near the shore. They do so for a reason. Storm surge. Also good for flooding. If you notice the homes in Hawaii (big island, south shore) every home is on two-foot stilts. One is probably for bugs and snakes and termites. The other is probably for the rain. It is called having a brain and knowing how to use it.
The phonic similarity between hurr- and her- was picked up on aeons ago, although I don’t think it led to the use of female names for these storms inthe 1950s. So when they started naming every other storm after “dudes” we had himicanes
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Himicane
and then, stretching the pun beyond all reasonable limits, we had…
Neutercanes !!!
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A18.html
Then there was the Huronicane up in the Great Lakes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Lake_Huron_cyclone
If one of these storms leaves your neighborhood comfortably numb, perhaps you could name it a…
Lidocaine
But don’t forget that the good folks at big Pharma are ages ahead of weather geeks at finding clever names…
http://www.medicinenet.com/benzocaine_topical_spray/article.htm
“BRAND NAME: HurriCaine”
Here are a few links to follow the rain from the system:
QPF forecasts(including good forecast discussion at the bottom):
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
Excessive rainfall forecasts:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Regional radar loop:
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php
By Monday, you’ll want to exclusively use the regional radar loop that’s just north of that one:
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php
That radar loop farther north, currently shows the activity from a stalled front, just north of the Ohio River. There is already a connection to tropical moisture flowing northward into the front being established. The tropical low along the Gulf Coast will slowly get pulled north, on the backside of the Bermuda High in the Southeast US(and an upper trough in the Midwest).
By late Mon/Tue, the remnants of the tropical low may show us as a surface wave along that front.
I lived, worked and traveled over the flood area there for three decades. I recall an overnight event in the marsh where we had something over a foot of rain. Filled up a small boat. The 1899 Texas event I referenced above was reported to be 30 inches over 2000 square miles.
Our house was high up on the western high edge of the Atchafalaya (Holocene Mississippi) flood plain. An old-timer around 1970 told us that the 1927 flood came up to the base of our plateau. This formerly flooded area is now full of houses on slabs, even one with a submerged living room. The north shore of Lake Pontchartrain east of Baton Rogue is similarly developed. This will be an unusual occurrence, but the careless development, just as in Katrina and Rita, is a lot of the problem. Save us from those that want to save us.
Half the time the rain is above average. And half the time the rain is below average.
😉
The system passed over my house near Bay Saint Louis, MS (about 15 miles from the LA line) over the last few days, sky finally mostly clearing today. Over the last few days we had lots of rain, but no, repeat no wind to speak of. We had some flooded roads in the area, but nothing like a real hurricane.
I noted the radar indications of very heavy rain over in Louisiana. The terrain there is VERY flat (even flatter than Mississippi!) so not much slope to help the rainwater run off.
The folks who got flooded can use all of our help.
Amen, brother.
Tropical storm Fay dropped over 28 inches of rain on Palm Bay, Fl in a day and a half. It spun over us with 60 mph wind gusts the whole time.
Calling south Louisiana, roughly south of the interstates, land is a misnomer. Most of it, especially the eastern half, is water. The term ‘land loss’ is commonly used, but most is marsh converted to open water a meter or so deep. One old school geologist noted “…’walking in marshes’ would hardly be engaged in by one with good sense..” There are no bicycle marathons across there. From the Mississippi State line to Galveston is essentially a parallel to the coast estuary, bigger than Chesapeake Bay. The Chenier Plain marsh west of Lafayette is higher but still about half open water.
It is a remarkable, unusual, complicated and badly misunderstood place. Every time somebody tells you they know how it works something like this happens.
I would like to thank all the Meteorologists here for giving me a good education about weather over the years.
Last Monday, I was in Orlando, Florida, watching a slow moving rain maker near the panhandle. Needing to be in California via car “soon”. Looked at the maps and projections, saw massive rain in my future path, and left 3 days early.
I am now safely in California, mostly dry the whole way. Despite driving (the temporarily closed in the storm) I-10 and I-15.
For those who have not done it, note that long sections are an elevated bridge over mostly-water. To call this a “land”anything is to demonstrate a profound lack of geology knowledge of Louisiana. Mud-cane maybe….
Once again, thanks for getting me to the point where I could accurately predict future flooding and rain, storm track and speed, and safely “bug out” with a 24 to 36 hour margin of safety. I owe y’all one!
Has anyone looked at Bangladesh for evidence of the same phenomena?
Yes. It happens every summer. It is known as “monsoon”. Very occasionally, mostly in El Nino years, it doesn’t happen. Then there is mass starvation.
This video was rated most compelling on Twitter worldwide for the last two days.
What’s more, at least on guy on the rescue crew had to be rescued himself the next day, as the flood waters stranded and flooded his family home south of where they saved this women and her pet.
https://youtu.be/5zDtb33BUds