Guest Post By Walter Dnes
In continuation of my Temperature Anomaly projections, the following are my July projections, as well as last month’s projections for June, to see how well they fared.
|HadCRUT4 2016/06||+0.777 (based on incomplete data)||+0.737||-0.040|
|UAHv6 2016/06||+0.302 *||+0.339||+0.037|
The Data Sources
The latest data can be obtained from the following sources
- HadCRUT4 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.188.8.131.52.monthly_ns_avg.txt
- GISS http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
- UAH http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/tltglhmam_6.0beta5.txt
- RSS ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_3.txt
- NCEI https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/p12/12/1880-2016.csv
At time of posting, all 5 monthly data sets were available through June 2016. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data runs 2 days behind real-time. Therefore, real data through July 29th is used, and the 30th and 31st are assumed to have the same anomaly as the 29th.
The July projections for HadCRUT4 and GISS and NCEI and UAH are higher than the June projections were. This is due to the fact that global NCEP/NCAR anomaly rose from +0.369 in June to +0.409 in July. The UAH-specific NCEP/NCAR anomaly (83.75°N to 83.75°S) went from +0.369 in June to +0.412 in July. The RSS-specific anomaly (81.25°N to 68.75°S) was down slightly, going from +0.436 in June to +0.407 in July. July will be the 12th consecutive month that has seen a record high monthly value set for the global anomaly (90°N to 90°S) for that calendar month. NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data goes back to the beginning of 1948.
* I got lucky with the UAH prediction for June. Due to a wrong entry in my spreadsheet, the projection was +0.302. It should’ve been +0.277, so I caught a break there.