No April Fools Joke – Arctic blast for Northeast USA to give snow, 10’s and 20’s to New York, Boston

From Joe Bastardi at WeatherBell:

Been warning anyone that will listen for over 2 weeks now about April 1-10. Check out GFS lows next Wednesday

GFS-NE-April1onward

GFS-NE-April1onward2

He adds:

EURO [forecast model] Going roidian on multiple cold shots, snow threats April 1-10

ECMWF-April1

That’s a deep trough. Coupled with cold, it looks like winter wonderland for much of the northeast in the first week of April.

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142 thoughts on “No April Fools Joke – Arctic blast for Northeast USA to give snow, 10’s and 20’s to New York, Boston

    • So it looks like Holden’s “personal opinion ” was correct: extreme coldness is caused by global warming. So unless we cut emissions NOW the coming La Nina could be very cold indeed.

      Then we’ll need more heating; more emissions leading to more cold weather. This “could” reach a tipping point eventually leading to so much global warming it could trigger the next glaciation.

      • And then the seas would contract back into glaciers and more of Florida would come out of the ocean again!

      • Sadly—this is exactly what “they” the global warming crowd will say, The melting of the glaciers in the artic circle will cause a major shift in the salinity of the water, the gulf stream will reverse pushing cold water far south, which will lower the jet stream by several hundred miles. This will expand the amount of ARTIC VORTEXES which will lead to massive snowfall across the entire North American Continent. We are ALL DOOMED! DOOMED!

      • Imagine if climate alarmists gave credit to El Nino for the warmest year evah, rather than claiming it was all because of AGW.

      • benben, climate models have no predictive value. There’s no scientific evidence that human CO2 emissions have done anything to the global climate (except as a possible side-effect of verified global greening).

        So, paraphrasing you, Imagine if people were able to make the distinction between science and the climate scare.

      • FJ Shepherd: Well, I imagine that you guys must think Hansen is about as “alarmist” as they get and here is his discussion of 201: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2016/20160120_Temperature2015.pdf Note the sentence in the abstract that says, “The 2015 temperature was boosted by a strong El Niño, nearly of the same strength as the 1998 ‘El Niño of the century’.”

        So, in fact, you have created a complete strawman. Who you call “alarmists” and most people call “scientists” have discussed this rationally. It is some other who have been less rational and have attempted to say that the fact that there was an El Nino means that the record warmth is ascribable only to this and not to the combination of the gradually rising baseline due to AGW and then the positive fluctuation due to El Nino.

      • yeah yeah Pat I know your opinion. But confusing weather and climate is a pretty ridiculous thing to do for someone who actually writes on a blog dedicated to climate change, wouldn’t you agree?

      • Yes, benben, the alarmists confuse weather and climate all the time, depending on whether the weather supports their dogma or not.

      • Imagine if real climate scientists read your replies or looked at your upside down charts.

      • For those who didn’t get the memo:

        2011: Weather is now climate

        “A few years ago, talking about weather and climate change in the same breath was a cardinal sin for scientists.
        Now it has become impossible to have a conversation about the weather without discussing wider climate trends, according to researchers who prepared the Australian Climate Commission’s latest report.

        Previously, ”weather is not climate” was the mantra, but now the additional boost from greenhouse gases was influencing every event.
        It might even be the case that the mantra chanted after every catastrophic weather event – that it can’t be said to be caused by climate change, but it shows what climate change will do – has become a thing of the past.”

        http://www.theage.com.au/national/climate-change-a-key-factor-in-extreme-weather-experts-say-20130303-2fefv.html

        November 12, 2009
        “Climate change is making itself felt in terms of day-to-day weather in the United States,” says Gerald Meehl, the lead author and a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

        http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/1036/record-high-temperatures-far-outpace-record-lows-across-us

        Weather is when it’s cold as well as hot.

      • benben in truth you really can’t separate the two climate is the chef and weather is that which is served. Now you ordered a fajita, and you have just been served… cold cuts.

        michael.
        p.s. sorry no grey poupon.

      • Imagine if benben were able to recall what Barry’s court astrologer claimed about arctic oscillations…

      • “benben, climate models have no predictive value. There’s no scientific evidence that human CO2 emissions have done anything to the global climate (except as a possible side-effect of verified global greening).”

        If you say so Pat – it must be true.
        Stands to reason, eh?

      • Toneb,

        Just about anything ‘stands to reason’ compared with the juvenile ‘benben’.

        Funny you should play his big brother. Makes you look pretty desperate.

      • I’m going to remember your sarcastic aside Benben.
        Whenever I next see you lurking about on comment threads on various blogs and you’re getting all crazy about a hot day I can remind you that it’s “just weather”
        For years and years warmists have shouted about “global warming” and telling us that every day is going to be sweltering, but whenever the globe hasn’t been warm you start screaming, “but that’s wethaaaar!!!”. It’s your ultimate get-out clause.
        Warmists are absolutely full of it; that’s why your average man on the street quite rightly thinks CAGW is a non-starter:
        http://data.myworld2015.org/

      • “Imagine if climate alarmists gave credit to El Nino for the warmest year evah, rather than claiming it was all because of AGW.”

        Imaging if things happened that are never going to happen in a million years.

      • Joel Shore,

        Some scientists are good about not blaming weather
        and El nino for climate change. Many others are not.
        There is also a big difference for many of them between
        what they write in a paper and what they put in the abstract,
        what the university publicity office says about the paper,
        what the press says about the paper, and most importantly,
        what the scientist says to the press about the paper.

        Hansen is clearly alarmist about the next 50 to 300 years
        w.r.t. sea level rise and in his most recent online pub, he goes
        so far that many climate alarmists even say he is out there.

      • Yes, imagine that everyone could/would make that distinction. Now imagine that you, in the past, had pointed out the distinction to the folks you know every time the MSM and the CAGW zealots would associate a heat event with long term catastrophes. Now imagine you doing the same thing in the future.

        Do you have that vivid of an imagination?

      • … kinda like “confusing” the terms investment & subsidy. (do they do it on purpose, when it suits them, or are they just ignorant?)

      • Imagine if you weren’t public school welfare fodder and could read a thermometer.

        And that your scientists didn’t get busted and admit adding every single tenth degree to global records since 1998 like Phil Jones did in his Feb 2010 BBC don’t-go-to-jail interview.
        And sue a man for telling people what a liar he is and lie in the lawsuit that he had won a Nobel Prize, so the man was calling a Nobel Prize winner,
        a sleazy liar.

        Imagine if all that didn’t happen. Imagine if your scientific leadership James Hansen didn’t tell you

        ”there’s a runaway green house effect on Venus” until you stumbled out of public school barely able to scratch your name, only to find out here on W.U.W.T that you can calculate the temperature of Earth, Venus, Mars – all just fine, with standard gas equations.

        Imagine you’re the person who believed all that crap, and you came into a place filled with scientific bloggers and told those people they don’t understand ‘thuh signts”

        but the craven criminopaths and liars you showed up toting water for, do.

        benben
        March 30, 2016 at 4:20 pm

        Imagine if people were able to make the distinction between weather and climate…

      • toneb: All you have to do to realize that the models have no predictive value is to compare their predictions to reality.

      • Who is confusing “weather with climate”? What group of people are you talking about? I see nothing but a post discussing a sharp drop in temps over the eastern US. Interesting, is it not?

      • All Benben (lame troll) and his fellow hysterians do is talk about weather, a flood, a bit of snow, some rain, no rain. After 10 years of whinging weather is not climate, all they talk about is weather now.

        All weather is proof apparently, except when it isn’t.

        Hot day = climate change, ship of fools = just weather

    • So it can be cold for a few days in the some parts of the U.S and yet still have record heat elsewhere on Earth…who knew!

      • RE Joel:
        And the rest of the discussion – global warming has reached 1 deg, etc.
        How much have they adjusted temperatures? How much data is fiction – filled in? 40 percent give or take.

      • Yep, that’s why the warming is not “global”
        Hot in one place, cold in another. It’s what the Earth has been like since time began and nothing to do with our minimal contribution to a trace gas.

      • [snip – multiple policy violations. Fake name, Tor server, incoherent rant accusing people of being criminals -mod]

  1. Obviously, that’s caused by Global Warming. It can cause *anything*, after all.

  2. Oh, No, not right in the middle of the hottest year Evah! How could that possibly happen! It must be caused by Global Warming, folks.

  3. Yuk!
    From the second map, single digits in western MA. North Adams: 5, Pittsfield: 6, and that is F, not C. Low double digits throughout the rest of the state. Well, we did have an exceptionally mild Feb. But still, Brrrrrrr.

    • My friends laughed at me when I quoted the Farmers Almanac on the progression from winter to spring. Tee-hee.

  4. According to the AER:

    ‘If the AO does turn sharply negative as predicted in the most recent model runs then below normal temperatures should become more widespread across Northern Eurasia and Eastern North America for the second half of April.’

  5. I’ll just have to keep the VT biomass burning. Feel the Bern !
    Garden’s going to need the CO2 pretty soon …

  6. Yep. Just a little too early to put the tomatoes in the cold frame. Meanwhile, I hope the apple and pear buds don’t get frozen off.

    • @jpatrick, I am more worried about peaches , cherries, apricots, right now they are way more in danger. Apples, pears are a lot hardier and later blooming. ( hey maybe they knew it was coming?).

  7. This ‘extreme weather” event brought to you by Climate Change™.
    Climate Change™; because you know it’s all your fault.

  8. Trough, schmogh.

    It’s all my fault – I took the plastic off the inside of the windows a week or 2 ago when it got so warm here.

    (Please don’t hurt me. ;-p )

  9. We should get a pot of money together and offer it to the great coalition of AG’s so they can meet and discuss the CAGW problem … as long as they do it in central park next week.

  10. Not entirely sarcastic: How can it NOT have a connection to April Fools when Gore and Holdren are involved? If we used actual, unadjusted data the warmest US years are in the 30s. Facts are stubborn things. The warmest year “evah” isn’t the warmest in a century even. Only fools miss the significance of 2015 not being warmer than 4 years in the 20th Century. A cooling trend does not prove “Global Warming”.

  11. Hi Joe,

    Thanks for the 5h1ttie news.

    I had plans you know. Now I have other plans and they aren’t near as fun.

  12. Interesting similarities to a blend of the early Aprils of 03 and 07 El Nino fades and for instance March of 07 very warm, then coldest Masters morning on record! Might give it a run again late next week. Biggest news is CFSV2 has succumbed to reality since the “fix” and is showing the coming La Nina. As it comes on hot summer in US and increase in in close tropical cyclone activity ( gulf has me worried) means ensuing global temp fall will be buried in news by pushing of heat and hurricanes, even though we all expect summers to have both.

  13. Looks like anomalously high temperatures in the Arctic for at least the next seven days, especially on the seventh day at the north pole…looks like over +25F anomaly
    Climate Reanalyzer
    http://bit.ly/1UDBy6b

    • The readers at WUWT missed an interesting phenomenon and despite having two famous meteorologists participating in this thread, as well as four dozen clicks of my link, not one comment was made about this weather event.
      FYI: It is forecast to continue for another week.

  14. Here’s what I know. Last fall, the guys at Weatherbell (Aleo, Bastardi, et al) predicted an average precipitation year for California, when lots of others were whistling past the El Nino graveyard expecting a drought-busting deluge. Ahem.

    So when those guys says something is gonna be, I reckon I oughta listen.

    • There is a large cyclone going to park just off South Greenland for a few days. Cheer up! This process is part of the way that the earth gets rid of heat, by pumping it high in the atmosphere, and northward to open water. Also, the ‘atmospheric rivers in all the oceans help with it, too.

    • Here is something I wrote in Sept of 2014 on a story from CNBC….”A possible bright note is that I see a good possibility for strong spring rains next year. The year after that should bring a normal rain { edit: meaning the winter of 2015/16}, and the year after that {edit: meaning the winter of 2016/17} will be a likely candidate for a flood event in Northern California.”. cnbc story…http://www.cnbc.com/2014/09/10/california-rice-farmer-drought-may-make-us-quit-and-sell.html

      The spring of 2015 brought moderate rain through the coastal northwest, the best rains seen in years until this winter. The overall forecast was good. Next winter will show if the last part of the forecast is right or wrong.

    • Glad I’m not an alarmist. They pray day and night for their side to win? Kind of sick if you think about it. Wasting their whole lifes work and career on hoping to be right about the misery bestwed onto others.

      What’s even more sad is their solutions to the unvalidated theory; destroy the well being of billions of people. These Sad scientist and their groupy followers are really only a proxy in a bigger more disturbing agenda of the left, total power and control over free people and their markets……at any cost!

  15. Global cooling, or more likely local cooling, is the worst case scenario that will compromise current resources and processes to sustain large population and production centers.

    That said, it is still a chaotic system that functions in a semi-stable state, which would suggest that rational mitigation efforts are valuable, but catastrophic changes (e.g. severe misalignment) are likely counterproductive and even harmful.

  16. Is there a place we can find out if this is a stark difference from “normal”? Because as others have mentioned a cold snap will do a hell of a lot more damage that a “warm” spell. Thoughts?

  17. And when the cold hits the Northeast, all the news will probably be about the warmth in Alaska.

  18. If this event comes to pass it will decimate the number of Warmist Faithful in the North Eastern USA, who have been told relentlessly and incessantly for many years than ‘snow is a thing of the past’ or that ‘spring is arriving earlier and earlier’ etc etc.
    Whilst this single event will not in itself totally convince people that the Warmist Narrative is false, it will convince them that it is flawed and will undermine the position of the Anointed Ones.
    I note with glee the number of Warmist Trolls who have rocked up on this thread to snipe and insult and undermine the regular commentators…and all I can say is ‘welcome guys!, the fact that you’re here is all the proof we need that the CAGW faith is close to collapse!

    • December was warm! And it got colder and colder each month since and I live near Canada…we are grinding our teeth today, viewing what is coming down on us. It will be colder than January! This is scary as all heck.

      And el Nino is over, basically. La Nina is breathing on us with her icy breath.

      • emsnews
        March 31, 2016 at 4:36 am wrote”

        “December was warm! And it got colder and colder each month since and I live near Canada…we are grinding our teeth today, viewing what is coming down on us. It will be colder than January! This is scary as all heck.”

        It got colder *because* December was warm. The weather always swings back and forth. A warm winter can lead to a cold spring.

        The year 1936, had some of the hottest weather in recent history, and it also had the coldest winter in history. So the temperature pendulum swings way out to on side, the hot side, and then it swings back to the other side, the cold side, and the magnitude of one swing is reflected in the other.

        That’s my theory anyway, and I’m sticking to it. :)

    • charles nelson,

      Dec 2015 to February 2016 was the warmest Dec-Feb period on record globally according to all surface and satellite data sources. It was the warmest winter period on record for the northern hemisphere according to all sources and the warmest winter in the US since records began in 1895 according to NOAA.

      That being the case, it’s difficult to see exactly how belief in AGW theory would be “close to collapse”, given that these observations are pretty much in line with expectations re AGW’s effect on global temperatures.

      • DWR54
        March 31, 2016 at 9:49 am wrote:

        “Dec 2015 to February 2016 was the warmest Dec-Feb period on record globally according to all surface and satellite data sources.”

        Well, the satellite data sources only go back to 1979, and it is still a matter of controversy as to whether it really is the warmest in this short time period.

        The surface temperture data provided by NASA and NOAA are BIG LIES that should not be used in our calculations of what is hottest.

        A real, unadulterated surface temperature chart would show we have been in a cooling trend since the 1930’s, up to, and including this year 2016, so this “hottest evah!” bs is just that.

      • TA

        If we’ve been in a cooling trend since the 1930s then how come all the satellite data sets show warming since 1979?

      • Dear DWR54
        As most of the ‘warming’ took place in the Arctic and Siberia you would have to ask yourself how the ‘warmth’ got there? It certainly didn’t come from the sun which barely rises above the horizon in Feb…so the the answer is it got there in the form of water vapour carried from the oceans by the wind.
        Now bearing in mind that the ‘warming’ was in the range of MINUS 30 to MINUS 15˚C you would have to ask yourself what happened to all that water vapour when it got to the polar regions…and froze?
        Think now.
        See?

  19. Now is a good time to remember to use the phrase “Global Warming” and refuse to use the phrase “Climate Change”.

    Thanks for the heads-up, Joe.

  20. As soon as we get some cold temps the warmist apologists arrive on the comment thread to shout, “but…but…but…Cliimaate Chaaange!…Carbon pollution!…Evil man!….Smash capitalism!”
    It’s getting rather predictable, I’m afraid.

  21. Yes, 2015 apparently the warmest year ever, real, imaginary or just made up.
    According to the data in the N. Hemisphere we have about 15 years or so of benign climate, and than it is all downhill for another 30 years.

    • vukcevic
      This is an interesting graph. If you look at similar pattern starting in 2006. you can see similarities between the dust bowl era. this seemed to last in each case 7 years for most areas and 11 years to complete it’s cycle.

      • Hi Tom
        I think the most striking feature is that the temp rise 1910-1945 period is precisely matched by one of 1975-2010, with just one single step-up of 0.35C. I just can’t see how that could be convincingly explained by the AGW hypothesis.
        p.s. ‘phoenix’ palm trees along Mediterranean are being decimated by palm tree weevils (apparently came with imports from Argentina), it is such a sad sight; is Florida ok?

  22. I case you Northerners were wondering where all the missing heat is going it’s all predicted for Oz cities-
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/subscribe/news/1/index.html?sourceCode=AAWEB_WRE170_a&mode=premium&dest=http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/technology/climate-change-how-australias-capital-cities-will-be-hotter-and-drier-by-2050/news-story/097b08a5202fea989ac91d56214c739b&memtype=registered
    Yeah I know it’s paywalled but you get the gist of it from the usual local Adelaide rag headline and there’s no way intelligent people pay for that dross. And they wonder why newspapers can’t turn a quid?

  23. It would be very unfortunate if the Vermont or New York AGs would be leading their inquisitors to torture the “truth” out of Exxon execs when a blizzard shuts down the highway in April trapping the entire inquisition team on the highway for days. Imagine the turmoil in the spin doctors’ houses as they try to turn that to their favor in the press.

  24. Remember this has absolutely no connection to the fact that man made global warming is a complete lie and a fraud this is something totally new never before seen in the earths 5 billion year long historical record called a ‘polar vortex’.

  25. “Arctic blast for Northeast USA to give snow, 10’s and 20’s to New York, Boston”

    Snow in April is clear proof of life-ending man-made global warming. March being warmer than normal in the northeast is also clear proof of global warming.

    Oh, and before you disagree, remember, denial of AGW is also proof of AGW.

    • Overnight on the 4th looks like it will just get to freezing. Big wad of warm air just off the coast.

  26. The real temps will be in the 40s and 50s. Nice clickbait article :(

    [we’ll see Mr. “Champion”, we’ll see. Meanwhile good job of obfuscating yourself, to stand up for what you truly believe the forecast will be -mod]

    • I’ll go with Weatherbell rather than your forcast – care to bet? I remember just north of Philadelphia in the early 80’s on April 3rd it snowed and for 3 days the 3 or 4 inches of snow blew around with very cold weather, closing local roads because of heavy drifting. I remember the migrating birds (mostly robins) would be grouped on cleared roads, rather than standing in the snow covered fields or lawns…

    • The Weather channel is predicting a low of 16 on next Tues in Albany. Seems pretty chilly to me.

    • You’re pandering to fear mongering with the publication of such drivel. My obfuscation is irrelevant in what will be the actual forecast. Will there be a follow up article after April 1-10’s 10s and 20s temperatures massacre the affected areas? Will there be coverage? Will there be pictures and on the street interviews or will you just move on to another fluff piece?

      {the IP from this fake commenter comes from a personal computer at Columbia University in NYC. It seems a perfect representation of academic standards there. -mod}

    • @Mr.G
      Well it’s the morning of April 5th, and the results are in. Looks like 27F in Central Park, NYC, and 28-29F in Washington DC this morning. Looks like your prediction was off by 10-23+ degrees F.

  27. Next 7 to10 might be interesting as it looks like a ice age weather pattern maybe forming not only in America but also in europe. High pressure is looking to build over NW America with a powerful jet stream running around it. Which will drive cold air down across NE America and with low pressure sitting there. Then late season heavy snowfall is on the cards. Now when America gets this jet stream set up it normally drives warm air up across europe. But a Greenland high looks to be forming and will extend across to northern europe. Shutting off the warm air and bringing cold air down from the north and pushing it across europe. Been waiting 3 years for this ice age weather pattern set up. So it will be interesting to see how strong its affects will be. Now that its the spring as well as having recent warming. This could be a real insight into how the NH climate moves from warming and into ice age formation over time

  28. Remember April 6, 1982; and April 9, 1996, in the New York area. Heavy snow the first ten days in April is unusual, but not likely to set any records.

    Contrast that with April 7, 2010, when the New York area reached 90 degrees. Also recall April 17 – 19, 1976, when the highs in New York were 93, 96 and 91, respectively.

    Some great temperature swings are possible in April!

  29. Isn’t NASA about due for it’s annual pronouncement of “Warmest Year on Record!”?

  30. Al Gore is not a scientist, but he predicated all this! Sea level rises of over 400 feet, before civilization even started! But in the next 100 years, maybe another one meter. And he predicted that this warm period would involve freezing blizzards from May through July, because that’s what happens to the weather when it gets really, really warm, oh, what a visionary!
    But he failed to mention that reducing global population might help slow CO2 emissions, because then how would the Demochit Party be able to continue to bring in more and more CO2 belching Mexicans without anyone making a connection?
    I pity any lunatic who fails to parrot this heroic figure!

  31. Thanks for good work. Any thoughts on this: Astronomers now aware of global warming on planet Mars. Ignored by many because contradictory to favorite narrative we must all bow down to.

  32. https://stream.org/climate-surprise-co2-good-earth/

    ” WHEN NEW THEORIES ARE AVAILABLE, OLD THEORY MUST DUMP. CLIMATE CHANGE THIRD GROUP. AIR CONDITIONING OF MOTHER EARTH. !!!!!

    NOT CO2 & GREEN HOUSE GASES CHANGING CLIMATE. CARBON ECONOMY IS FAILING EVERYWHERE. “Why I am different from 31, 847 CLIMATE AND GLOBAL WARMING SCIENTISTS? ” http://joychenputhukulam.com/newsMore.php?newsId=37630
    Climate Research Fools went to Eastern Antarctic while temperature was -9° C.
    Raveendran Narayanan USA

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