Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to forecasters, Britain is bracing for extreme winter conditions which might last for months, as falling temperatures turn torrential rain into severe blizzards.
Arctic SNOWBOMB to smash into Britain: Coldest winter in 58 YEARS now just days away
BRITAIN faces WEEKS of freezing blizzards, crippling snowfall and brutal winter storms as a savage turn in the weather plunges the ENTIRE COUNTRY into winter lockdown.
Blistering Polar gales, several feet of snow and near-record low temperatures will grind the country to a standstill until MARCH, forecasters warn.
The first taste of what could be a historic whiteout arrived this weekend blanketing parts of Scotland and Yorkshire in thick snow.
A dramatic change in atmospheric conditions will drag a plume of freezing air from the North Pole across Britain through this week.
…
Piers Corbyn, forecaster for WeatherAction, said: “There is a significant change in the weather on the way.
“The jet stream, which has so far remained north over the UK, is about to make a sharp southwards turn allowing an Arctic air to sweep Britain.
“The British Isles will be locked into an Arctic airflow for at least the next five days.”
…
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said the end of winter could rival the shocker of 1962/63 – one of the coldest on record.
He said the weather will also be driven by a slow-down of the Gulf Stream which has led to cooler waters around the UK.
He said: “We could see a much colder period until March with a multitude of snow events after snow events in response to low pressure systems clashing with the almost stagnated and cooler air that will be in place across the British Isles.
No doubt if this weather forecast proves to be accurate, alarmists will blame the versatile CO2 molecule for extreme blizzard conditions and snowfall.
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/intense-cold-splits-brand-new-bridge-strands-canadians-/62165/
Poor bridge
I blame global warming.
CO2 in the steel probably, now will you believe the Mann!
The Express make this same forecast every winter.
yes, and they have been late this season – complaint sent. :o)
Yup. I’ll wait until Lucy Verasamy tells me. 🙂
You got there first.
It doesn’t matter if this time they are right (which they won’t be).
Even if they get lucky… they are just getting lucky.
If you always call Tails you’ll win the coin toss eventually.
(Unless you’re Alastair Cook).
Piers Corbyn, forecaster for WeatherAction, said: “There is a significant change in the weather on the way.
“The jet stream, which has so far remained north over the UK, is about to make a sharp southwards turn allowing an Arctic air to sweep Britain.
“The British Isles will be locked into an Arctic airflow for at least the next five days.”
I have followed Piers Corbyn for years, he is forecasting has been extremely reliable. Unlike the worst most unreliable weather jokers at the Met office (that’s being kind)
Poor old Cooky, it just isn’t cricket.
… and the BBC doesn’t:
http://s28.postimg.org/6bpbnx2kt/Brrr.jpg
Minus 5 degrees…. Hmm, that’s centigrade.
Here near Chicago this morning, it was -3 degrees Fahrenheit !
It’s just weather…it is January after all, it gets cold, though I was hoping for some global warming to help with the snow shoveling.
I would not trust James Madden’s forecasts further than I could throw them – he makes prediction after prediction that is wrong. Piers Corbyn’s predictions of extreme patterns are usually much more reliable. We’ll see what happens.
MONTHS of winter weather sounds OTT – if it’s more than 6 weeks it will be an epochal event like 1947.
But really: the EVENT, if event there is, is the blocking high in the NE Atlantic which prevents the usual procession of storms from the Gulf of Mexico or Newfoundland reaching the UK’s shores……
Check out the Saturday summary here
http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-january-16-2016
I don’t know about “months” of hard winter but at about the 6:30 mark Joe Bastardi shows the models predicting the Polar air mass coming down for a visit to the UK. Looks like you all are in for a shot of colder air rom the dreaded “Polar Vortex”.
Oh my god! We might get some snow and a frost in south of England! And in winter! As it happens, despite the British MSM going bananas, figures from the weather station of the local water company in east Surrey indicate a warmer than average December but with just less than average (yes, I’ll repeat that, just less than average) rainfall, after more meaningfully less than average rainfall in October and November.
So, if we are due a colder-than-average late January – so what? Armageddon? Don’t think so.
Facts over hysteria please.
Oh please… the Daily Express writes this story almost once a week.
Sept 17: Coldest winter for 50 YEARS set to bring MONTHS of heavy snow to UK
Nov 3: FOUR MONTHS OF HEAVY SNOW: Shock UK long-range weather forecast for THIS winter
Nov 18: Britain on SNOW alert: Storm Barney sends temperatures plunging to -6C with Arctic gales
Nov 24: New Arctic blast within days promises freezing run up to a COLD CHRISTMAS
http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/621745/Arctic-blast-freezing-COLD-CHRISTMAS
Dec 13: Here comes the SNOW: Arctic blast hits the UK as Brits prepare for the WORST Xmas floods
And this is wast Met-office report about the first third of this winter:
“The provisional UK mean temperature was 7.9 °C, which is 4.1 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term average, making it the warmest December in a series from 1910. “
I can’t take this story seriously, it’s become a standing joke here in the UK in that every winter our tabloid papers publish the same rubbish.
No-one with a brain cell believes the winter forecasts of James Madden! He makes the same forecast EVERY winter.As does the Express “newspaper”.
58 years ago was 1958 which was not a bad winter. 1947 was very snowy from late January through April. 1962/63 was very cold from December through March. Those were the worst winters in the last 70 years.
I recall the winter of ’62 when the sea froze.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1962%E2%80%9363_in_the_United_Kingdom
62-63 winter was brutal. even in Holland there were deaths and many smaller towns were isolated for weeks, emergency supplies were flown in with choppers from the US air force and NATO.
Well, this is awkward. Some research of The Express’ history of dire snow forecasts might have been prudent before posting.
There are so many inaccuracies in that Express article it beggars belief. The Express warns of apocalyptic blizzards every two or three weeks once Summer is over. We shall see.
Just a couple of weeks ago they were promising record hot temperatures in Central England. And guess what, it was also because of the CO2. And guess more, the hot forecast also failed miserably. This was on the 30th of December.
http://hipertextual.com/2015/12/invierno-loco
Translated: “while the north of the British islands suffers historical floods, the centre of England will have the hottest temperature registered in the last 350 years, with temperatures more typical of April and May for the area”.
I checked what the Sheffield (in the very centre of England) temperatures had been the following day, and it had been hotter than usual, but nothing extraordinary (13ºC max, 6ºC min). One would like to think that eventually they will get tired of this silly game of alarmism. But I’m not counting on it.
By the way, the same article promissed 4 degrees over zero in the north pole for the 31st of December. To my knowledge, nothing remotely close to that happened in the real world. The arctic north of parallel 80 was hotter than usual on that day, but still very far from 277K. Roughly 20K far.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Nope,
With teh DMI Link you are referring to an estimated average temperature of a an area with 2200 km diameter.
Just look at this:
ttp://tinyurl.com/TempNorthOf85N
Thanks for that. I don’t see much in your link that challenges what I said. Among the few data points that are closer to the North Pole, none of them shows a temperature remotely close to 4ºC.
Just saw the option to replay. So basically almost 0 degrees were reached during just a few hours on the 30th of December, going back to the range of -20ºC very shortly afterwards. Interesting.
The things a lonely arctic seal will play with.
Well, ‘hot’ and ‘Arctic’ don’t go together. Not even ‘warmer’. Less cold or milder is the word used. Nothern languages have a rich set of words describing temperatures that are freaking cold, but less cold than it could be or used to be.
My parents say the winter, so far, has been quite mild albeit they live near Portsmouth, Hampshire, southern England.
“According to forecasters ….. ”
In that case I’m not putting the umbrella away just yet.
Not saying we aren’t going to get some cold snowy weather, but it is the middle of January after all.
Given the Met Office’s history of pathetically wrong predictions I’m not going to make any preparations other than finding a warmer sweater. Contrast their panicky prediction of weeks of severe weather with Piers Corbyn’s measured forecast, and ask yourself which is more believable. There you go, sorted.
What planet you from!!! The met office are the only ones who have predicted the string of mild wet and windy winters we have been experiencing. Corbyn and Madden are crackpots. For every failed met office forcast I can give you 50 of theirs!
Unfortunately the Express in particular has been coming out with this headline regardless of whether it actually snows. That said, there does look like a cold signal at the moment which could give us a bit of the white stuff.
Awwww c’mon….Is Mr rare and exciting going to be wheeled out again?…..
Agreed…never quote the Express on its weather forecasts. Is it the Mail that constantly headlines cures for Cancer and Alzheimer’s? Fairly free press, who often use the privilege to try and sell papers… R.
“Is it the Mail that constantly headlines cures for Cancer and Alzheimer’s?” Inded it is. This is known as the Daily Mail Oncology Ontological Project to classify every inanimate object into one of two types- those that cause cancer and those that cure it.
And they both will cause house prices to plummet.
archonix
Magnificent!
Almost lost a keyboard & monitor!
Auto
First time anyone claimed Corbyn emissions will cool the planet.
The british isles has existed in a wedge of warm, north-bound air for the last few months. Many continental areas at latitudes far to the south of W Europe have been in deepfreeze for months.
When the warm air system finally runs out of energy the wedge will close and Europe will freeze.
No doubt, in spite of this and other reports around the globe over the course of the year, 2016 will be pronounced the “warmest evah.”
“BRITAIN faces WEEKS of freezing blizzards, crippling snowfall and brutal winter storms”
And this is just the start of the global warming trend. !! 😉
The Express? What is it they say about broken clocks?
I’m a great believer in the credibility of WUWT. Please don’t take it amiss but that credibility is in danger of being undermined by quoting stories from the Express. That paper uses erroneous headlines aboit the weather at least 80% of the time.
Yes – at least put in (According to the Express) in the headline.
Pokes head nervously over the parapet… :-).
If it’s any consolation, Eric, there’s a possibility that night-time temperatures in our neck of the woods might dip below freezing later in the week.
Frankly I’m hoping this forecast is wrong. I’ve experienced heavy snow when I used to live in England, it wasn’t fun trying to commute to work through the ice.
Nervous you should be with ten foot snow drifts forecast by The Express after the second flake of snow falls.
Their shouting about the end of humanity is expected every year, just a little late this season, and I have sent a note of complaint to the editor at said newspaper.
The Daily Express is owned by a Porn King, who runs Television X and Red Hot TV. He also prints OK Magazine, while the Daily Express is twinned with the National Enquirer in the US.
The number of ‘winter whiteout’ predictions is matched by the number of sightings of Elvis, Bigfoot, and that B-29 that landed on the Moon. The Express readership is comprised of semi-literate readers who have recently mastered the alphabet and have outgrown the tlts and bums of the Red Top papers, and are looking for more cerebral articles on Bigfoot and Elvis.
I hear that the IPCC believe that the Express might be the ideal platform to promote their honest reports on climate.
Ralph
Ralph,
Spot on – but I think you missed the big red London double-decker bus that was found on the Moon.
And then – weeks later – could not be found on the Moon.
I understood one of the two stories had a scintilla of accuracy . . . .
Auto
Sorry, couldn’t resist.
Hey I still got my hair – the bald guy is my younger brother… 🙂
Kilroy, where ya been, boy?
Wot, no snow yet?
That reply was the pits.
A German friend suggested that the British are so useless at handling winter weather that had Hitler dumped snow on London rather than bombs he would have won the war.
That’s ironic, considering that operation Babarossa foundered upon encountering the severe Russian winter:
“The German Army had counted on a quick summertime victory in Russia and had therefore neglected to prepare for the brutal winter warfare it now faced. German medical officer Heinrich Haape recalled: “The cold relentlessly crept into our bodies, our blood, our brains. Even the sun seemed to radiate a steely cold and at night the blood red skies above the burning villages merely hinted a mockery of warmth.”
Heavy boots, overcoats, blankets and thick socks were desperately needed but were unavailable. As a result, thousands of frostbitten soldiers dropped out of their frontline units. Some divisions fell to fifty-percent of their fighting strength. Food supplies also ran low and the troops became malnourished. Mechanical failures worsened as tank and truck engines cracked from the cold while iced-up artillery and machine-guns jammed.
The once-mighty German military machine had now ground to a halt in Russia. ”
http://www.historyplace.com/worldwar2/defeat/attack-russia.htm
yes it is the express…
but
for a change they quote Piers Corbyn
and hes worth a listen to, I find.
put it like this
hes more often correct than the “approved BBC” mob are
if he didnt get airtime and some warnings out.
and it does hit as badly as possible..then would the standard warmist shills normally reporting continue to say warmer etc till people froze?
anyone noted the low sunspots recently?
and the rise in biggish quakes yet again as it drops.
just sayin:-)
The headline and message are different from what Piers is quoted as saying. Piers is much more temperate in his language. This is vox pop in The Express, quoting out of context to feed the narrative.
People still slag the Met office off over one failed bbq summer headline several years ago. The truth is they have been staggeringly correct over recent years and have correctly forcast the string of mild, wet, windy winters the UK has been having. Piers has better success in the US, I’ll admit but certainly not the UK.
They haven’t! What about our three consecutive winters, especially 2010/2011! We were still there and lived through them!
According to the weather forecast websites (e.g. MeteoGroup) I have consulted daytime temperatures from South England up to Scotland remain above zero for the next two weeks.
Eric Worrall, which forecasters told you about extreme weather with record snowfall?
The Daily Express is owned by a Porrn King, who runs Television X and Red Hot TV. He also prints OK Magazine, while the Daily Express is twinned with the National Enquirer in the US.
The number of ‘winter whiteout’ predictions is matched by the number of sightings of Elvis, Blgfoot, and that B-29 that landed on the Moon. The Express readership is comprised of semi-literate readers who have recently mastered the alphabet and have outgrown the tlts and bums of the Red Top papers, and are looking for more cerebral articles on Blgfoot and Elvis.
I hear that the IPCC believe that the Express might be the ideal platform to promote their honest reports on climate.
Ralph
Two weeks forecast; (in Dutch): http://www.weer.nl/verwachting/14dagen/groot-brittannië/glasgow/18143323/
Shows one or two days of snow.
I see now: your source of information is the Daily Express. Can’t you do better?
I’ll have to see it to believe it. These forecasts have been made before. 2 feet of snow??
Well! my cider is still fermenting.
That’s out side under shelter.
Temperature is 42F.
Wish it would get colder or I am going to have to rack it a month earlier.
Who likes working out side in February?
Still its only 42 gallon. the answer to everything.
I just quote the met office:
“UK Outlook for Friday 15 Jan 2016 to Sunday 24 Jan 2016:
Remaining cold until at least the start of next week, with a mix of sunshine and wintry showers. The showers falling as sleet or snow at times, especially towards the north. Snow may settle at times just about anywhere, though mainly on higher ground. Widespread frosts expected morning and night, with the added risk of icy patches following wintry showers. From the middle of next week onwards, it looks as if the cold weather may gradually give way to somewhat milder and wetter conditions from the west, though confidence is low at this stage. With a westerly flow of air likely to become established by next weekend, the wettest weather then becomes more likely towards the northwest of the United Kingdom.
UK Outlook for Monday 25 Jan 2016 to Monday 8 Feb 2016:
The United Kingdom is most likely to lie within a predominantly westerly flow of air between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south. So the weather looks set to be rather changeable with rain and hill snow at times, especially in the northwest. However, there is a reasonable chance of some longer dry spells due to a greater likelihood of high pressure, especially in the south. Overall, temperatures are expected to range from near to above average.
Updated at: 0133 on Mon 11 Jan 2016”
This boils down to: The article is horse feathers.
MF
Sorry, but I wouldn’t trust even the Met. Office past about five days or so.
“UK Outlook for Monday 25 Jan 2016 to Monday 8 Feb 2016:” – that which emanates from the southern-most end of a North-bound male bovid.
Actually (now) reading the ‘most likely’; ‘predominantly’; ‘looks set’; ‘a reasonable chance’; and ‘temperatures are expected to range from near to above average’, which covers all but Icebox Britain – they ‘may’ be within touching distance – or may not, I guess . . . .
But the general principle that trying to prognosticate/forecast/guess/imagine the weather in Britain, more than a few days [5 days is my opinion] beyond today is simply plucking numbers out of the ether.
Astrology with numbers.
And some of these – well, clowns form an honourable profession – wassocks, shall we say, are telling us about climate in fifty or eighty years – not hours, oh no , but y e a r s !!
Auto
Six weeks of whiteout and sub zero temperatures will again reinforce how serious climate change is.
The Met Office in the UK publishes calculated seasonal central England temperature records in degrees Celsius, based on figures from 1659 to the present.
Seasonal values are calculated from monthly data by averaging three-monthly values.
The winter months are December, January, and February. The warmest figures are always above 6C, but under 7C.
The years when values over 6C were recorded were 1686, 1734, 1834, 1869, 1935, 1975, 1989, 1990, 1998, 2007 and 2014.
As a point of further interest, average values of zero or below for these three months are hardly ever seen. We see -1.2C in 1684, -0.4 in 1740, and -0.3 in 1963,
I’m not expecting climatic Armageddon this year!
“As a point of further interest, average values of zero or below for these three months are hardly ever seen.”
That doesn’t really mean much. Winter 2010/11 was 3.13C but had the second coldest December on CET. The more extreme cold anomalies only tend to last a month or two.
ulriclyons: It’s nice to see that someone else looks at the CET! I’ve noticed is that some values have altered in the record. All the following values are in Celsius as published.
The 1947 year average was 9.57C in an earlier version, now it’s 9.65.
The 1955 value was 9.28, now it’s 9.33.
1969 was 9.26, now we see 9.32.
1971 was 9.68, now it’s 9.72.
For 2003,the value’s given as 10.54, but using my calculator I get10.5 exactly, and for 2006 I get 10.83, but the figure given is 10.87. Similar minor discrepancies are present in 2008 – I get 9.95, but the published figure is 9.97, and for 2013 the Met Office give 9.61, but I make the value 9.57.
Arguably trivial discrepancies, but why have the values changed?
The monthly values for the years 1947, 1955 and 1971 in this series:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/tcet.dat
are all identical to the original Manley values.
And 1969.
ulriclyons: thank you for the CET link. I’ve downloaded the figures, and will have a leisurely browse later.
I’ve rechecked the discrepancies I referred to in versions of the CET I downloaded in 2013 and earlier in 2015, and they’re definitely there.
ulriclyons: I’ve now had a look at the versions of the CET which I downloaded from the Met Office in 2012, 2013, and in April 2015.
The figures for 1947, 1955, 1969 and 1971 in the 2012 and 2013 versions agree, but the ones from April 2015 do not.
I note that the version you sent me has the annual averages to one decimal place.
When rounded to one decimal place, everything falls into agreement.
Why the version I downloaded in April 2015 has the discrepancies must seemingly remain a mystery!
Thank you again for your comments and interest.
This may help you..
https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2016/01/07/the-quest-to-find-central-england/
Carbon500
I wonder if it’s got something to do with monthly weighting. Some months are 30 days – some 31. February is 28 or 29.
ulriclyons and John Finn – thanks for your interesting link and comments respectively. I enjoyed having a look at the CET measuring sites.
I like to have a look at a spread of literature on the climate issue, and came across a brief description of the Kӧppen classification of climate in one of my meteorology textbooks. It was devised by a German climatologist, Wladimir Kӧppen (1846-1940). It’s apparently been the best known and most used climate classification system for decades, and describes the UK as having a humid middle latitude, mild winter or Marine West Coast (Cfb) type of climate.
What the Cfb coding means is that the average temperature of the coldest month is under 18⁰C and above -3⁰C.
No month is above 22⁰C, and at least four are over 10⁰C.
A range of temperatures – this is a welcome contrast to the pernickety arguments over fractions of a degree seen so often, and makes sense to me – since when do tiny temperature changes define climate?
Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit produced his namesake temperature scale in 1724; Anders Celsius produced his scale (sign inverted) in 1742.
I have just checked the printout I have of the C.E.T from 1659 which I printed out on the 4/3/12 and it looks to have been adjusted upwards from 1659 onwards
Dave (UK) – thanks for your observation regarding your CET printout of 4/3/12. Unfortunately I don’t have an earlier copy to refer to. It’s seems a good idea to keep hard copies of such data to refer to. Why these ‘adjustments’ are necessary I fail to see – for example, hospitals don’t ‘correct’ or ‘adjust’ patients’ blood biochemistry results which are in their medical records from years ago!
It’s a balmy -10 degrees here in Butte MT, the Viking game was the third or sixth “depending on storyteller” coldest NFL game on record and as Steven Goddard says “we are in the hottest year ever”
The Express predicting Arctic blasts is on a par with The Guardian predicting warming / doom / end of civilisation.
Whilst we’ve clearly moved into a cooler airstream (snow / frost in Southern Scotland over the weekend) that looks set to last for a couple of weeks, there’s no imminent signs of catastrophe. But these things can be very localised – Scotland’s mountains had near-record snowfall last winter yet we saw almost none 100 miles away…
UK Met Office: Current alert level: Level 2 – Alert and Readiness
Issued at: 0950 on Mon 11 Jan 2016
There is a 80 % probability of severe cold weather with icy conditions and wintry showers between 0900 on Monday 11 Jan and 0900 on Sunday 17 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust’s emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.
With a north to northwesterly flow developing on the 11th and 12th January Arctic air is forecast to spread to northern areas at first, and across the whole of England later…etc
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert
CHAOS, you forgot the CHAOS!
You also forgot the Monday Mirthiness! It needs exclamation marks too!!!
NAO has gone negative for the first time in months, temperatures have dropped a bit, forecast models started predicting a little snow and frost here and there and the Express went full retard with ‘worst winter in decades’ – for the zillionth time. NAO is about to bounce back up, so expect them to go a bit quiet for a few weeks until the next merest hint of proper winter weather presents itself.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
jessop ?
Er, yes, that’s me!
Er, yes, that’s me!
It’s so cold in Canada, our bridges are splitting…Eastern Canada cut off from Western Canada..
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/intense-cold-splits-brand-new-bridge-strands-canadians-/62165/
And it’s only 2 years old !!
2 months, I think.
They reopened one lane today.
Probably designed by the rare critter known as an AGW convinced engineer. GK
The european medium range shows no such weather. A short cold spell with snow over high ground then gales and rain over scotland and northern england with sun and possible frost in the south
I’m a Canadian, and I was seconded to Britain in 1962. I worked there for over a year, and I can tell you, the winter of 62/63 was brutally cold. Our house didn’t have central heating and it wasn’t insulated at all. We had a fireplace in the living room, and one of my kids nearly caught fire when he attempted to move too close to the flames. I spent hours with a torch trying to thaw the water pipes which were installed unprotected on the outer walls. The British are a hardy people. They can take a lot of punishment without complaining. Children could be seen walking to school in shorts with their bare legs red from the cold. Those greenies who think warmer is bad and colder is good, beware! You might get what you ask for.
Yes, my boarding school finally wrote to our parents asking them to send long trousers. We were very grateful when they arrived. the sports field was frozen solid so we went on long walks round Bournemouth in our ‘crocodile’.
…Are you really that stupid or are you just practicing to be a liberal politician ???
Oops..ignore the above….
I remember the early 1960’s in Tucson when the rain fell in winter, not summer and it flooded everything and I couldn’t go to school due to the bridges being closed and then it also snowed. Just like this winter in Arizona is wetter than normal.
According to forecasters… daily excess… ’nuff said
If it comes true I’ll expect to see headlines on the BBC, Guardian & Independent newspaper, saying ‘experts’ say… expect more of these wild swings in these extreme winter temps because of climate change ‘so say we all’
Piers Corbyn bags this report in the Express.
He directs readers to look for actual quotes before taking reports on board.
https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2016/01/11/piers-corbyn-world-weather-is-now-developing-faster-into-grim-new-era/#more-5860
However the ‘grim new ere’. is not due to CO2, it appears to be innocent, but in his opinion, to changes in the Sun.
‘It appears world weather is now developing faster into this grim new era – which depends on specific confirmed and predictable solar activity developments and lunar modulation of sun-earth connections. Related to this, what is happening in the stratosphere is now more crucial and that changes some forecast options’.
UK Forecasts
Colder
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/weather-news/news/ch/ee538cfd86510ca99a56d60f2ec944d9/article/colder_weather_on_the_way-1.html
Met Office suggests nothing out of ordinary
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
The Gruniad goes for cold
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jan/10/weather-snow-frost-expected-britain-big-chill
Then there’s this lot
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=
I was hoping for a bikini babe with this one..
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/486173/Uk-weather-snowbomb-cold-freezing-arctic-winds-blizzards-storms-Britain-forecast
Time will tell
So much for British children not knowing what snow is.
This is a very plausible prediction regarding the near future.
As standards in UK state education steadily decline, we should anticipate that children will not know what a greater and greater number of things, actually are.
In addition, it’s not our business to know what snow is. Knowing what snow is, is best left to the official “experts”. “Experts” who have received the minimum level of mandatory training and hold a currently valid certificate to demonstrate their entitlement to claim to know what things are. Most children should have understood this important point by the time they leave school. (sarc)
How well do offshore windmills installations stand up to ice floes? We’ll find out over the next few years as the AMO rolls over and down.
I wonder how well the blades on the windmills react to ice buildup. I would expect a large imbalance and having to shutdown the windmill farm. Just when you need the power to keep warm.. bummer
El Nino has an important role in shaping Europe’s winter, but, since there was mentioned 1962/1963 winter, I would also like to come with another perspective on this subject, meaning the resultant rain due to war, in 1940, which you can read here: http://www.2030climate.com/a2005/02_31-Dateien/02_31.html. You could also read many articles, on that site, about the way that war affected the weather in many other countries, from all around the world.
Statistically; El Niño has no consistent effect on the UK or Europe. The cold winters of 47 and 63 did not occur with similar nino conditions. The severe winter of 56 also happened in a different phase of nino. 55/6 moderate La Nina. 55/6 neutral going to weak nina. 46 weak el nino. More often than not bad winters in europe have no correlation to el or la nino/a
The exception to that is the combination of a negative ENSO coinciding with a solar minimum. Recent examples of that on the west coast of the US were the winters of 1996/97, 1964/65, 1955/56 and 1946/47. There are more examples from the past.
That theory may explain the “hunger winter” 1944-45 as it was after the D-Day invasion and the eventual fall of Hitler 10 months later.
I walked upon the FROZEN over Thames in the winter of 1963 with my parents at Walton bridge …… I would love to do that again ……. Now living in wet & windy SoCal …….. !!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3394247/Environment-Agency-boss-QUITS-admitting-t-Britain-time-critics-blast-staying-Barbados-Christmas-flooding-crisis.html
What a moron
“Children just won’t know what snow is!”
Dr. David Viner, 2000
That article has been erased and the claim was never made.
Your name has been added to the list of ideological criminals.
You will be collected from your home and sent for re-education.
Meanwhile David Viner has been given the job of supreme expert in control of climate prediction, infrastructure resilience and agricultural productivity.
Welcome to the new world order. Please enjoy your stay in a culturally appropriate manner.
Yes, Orwell’s 1984 is coming true.
It’s incredible to witness the formation of a mass-delusion in the popular mind.
It was so easy.
Terrifying thing X is causing effect Y.
Effect Y is defined broadly as everything and anything about the climate changing by any degree.
Thus the existence of terrifying thing X will always be proven, no matter what consequently happens.
Unless the climate does not change, which is more or less impossible.
Meanwhile a person who has a vague grasp of how natural variability influences weather patterns and climate will recognize from this Met Office page showing average January temperatures extending back to 1919 – that only natural variability is evident. The average now is the same as it was in 1925.
NOTHING HAS HAPPENED TO UK WINTER TEMPS!!!!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly
With the AMO and solar cycles entering decadal declines, there will be plenty of opportunities to walk on water (ice) in coming winters.
Thanks Eric for the “news” about what our weather forecasters put out.
It should have read …
According to forecasters, Britain is bracing for extreme bullshit which might last for months, as falling interest rates turn rain into eco-lizards.
BRITAIN faces YEARS of bullshit, crippling borrowing and brutal court-room story telling as a savage turn in the Prince of Wales plunges the ENTIRE COUNTRY into laughter.
PS: I just can’t wait for the “snow events” !
Tobogganists everywhere rejoice.
Regards,
WL
Quit quoting James Madden/Exacta Weather and reporting his ‘forecasts’. The guy knows nothing about the weather. He just makes up ott nonsense to try and trick the gullible into paying for his ‘forecasts’.
Interesting as the AO is steeply, stupendously negative right now, significance unknown. One day Elvis will have a Bigfoot baby, like 2 months of snow and sleet. The discussion on AGW will unfortunately only come to a quick end with physical data like a long freeze hurting enough people to make them say we have had enough.
I hope the British Power system does have enough backup yo keep people safe.
“Within the hour, the temperature outside will fall to over 70 million degrees below zero!”
Randy Marsh, South Park “Two Days Before the Day After Tomorrow.”
Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
Should this come to pass, it will of course be the fault of anthropogenic global warming, climate change, and the Dread Demon CO2, which can do anything. ANY-THING. (Say it after me, kiddies: “natural cycles.”)
It will be interesting to see if the Pacific Northwest gets a similar cold spell next winter as the UK is currently experiencing. I have noticed before what looks like a connection with a one year lag between the two seaboards.
Okay I fear I am the villain in all this on an earlier Thread of Eric Worrall I Posted the express link. I fear he picked up on it.(Professor Myles Allen: Normal Weather is a “Thing of the Past”
Guest essay by Eric Worrall )
I thought …. Okay I goofed. And I fear both Eric and I just did the “Wah Watusi” on our reproductive organs
If you followed my link Eric ,, sorry I Goofed.
michael duhancik
Meanwhile, the Surrey Mirror reports “Daffodils may normally be associated with the arrival of spring but some of the attractive blooms cropped up in the area shortly before Christmas” – and I have already seen spring daffs out locally (about 30 miles SW of London) myself. And these days we don’t seem to be getting the hard winters of my childhood, where snow lingered for weeks or sometimes months…
http://www.surreymirror.co.uk/Spring-flowers-come-early-Reigate/story-25824502-detail/story.html
Tim C
El Nino year. Warm. Weather. Meh.
Next winter will be abnormally cold if the expected “rebound” La Nina comes.
Other have probably already said this, but the Daily Express is a Newspaper that routinely lies regarding weather forecasts. It’s a tradition of theirs. If they are saying it will be a severely cold winter, then by default that is highly unlikely to happen or they would not have claimed it. It is difficult to explain to non UK citizens why some newspapers continually lie like this despite the evidence. I suppose the closest thing in the US would be to believe the National Enquirer reports on Elvis sighting which are along the same lines.
By the way, publishing nonsense like this has the potential to draw your website into disrepute.
Amongst whom ?
Anyone with an ounce of common sense and an interest in climate science.
I bet the brits will be baffled since they don’t any longer know what snow is!
[Comment deleted. Labeling others as “deniers” violates site policy. -mod.]
Madigan is the same talking head who wrote:
Starting with the industrial age, the anthropogenic input of CO2 has been meteoric and, over the previous 5 decades has been almost asymptotic, culminating in a 2013 concentration over 400 ppm…
Heh, get a load of that lame attempt to scare us. That jamoke doesn’t understand that all the available evidence shows that the rise in CO2 has been beneficial to the biosphere, and completely harmless. CO2 has risen by one (1) part in ten thousand over the past century, but some folks still want everyone to be alarmed.
That only leaves scare-by-assertion, the last gasp of the dwindling alarmist cult.
Madigan,
Since I’ve thrashed you in the thread with facts and evidence, your lame response is to try and get me to read some alarmist propaganda? Please.
See, reading that stuff doesn’t give you the answers in science, it just gives assertions and opinions. Like what you write. What matters in science are empirical facts, observations, evidence, and data.
They tell the story. And the story they tell is that the ‘dangerous AGW’ scare is just a hoax intended to pass carbon taxes, and amass political power.
Dummies don’t see that, but most readers here do. This site attracts the more intelligent readers. (Snark at this point is tempting… must… resist…)
dbstealey: Really, “CO2 has been beneficial to the biosphere, and completely harmless. CO2 has risen by one (1) part in ten thousand over the past century, but some folks still want everyone to be alarmed.”
So we should invent something that allows us to breathe CO2 since it’s so beneficial. Before we started emitting giga-tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, the system was in balance. That the CO2 concentration went from about 300 ppm at the turn of the 20th century to over 400 ppm now misses the larger point. It’s like saying, oh, they only ingested .5 microgram of Mercury and so, since the lethal dosage is 1 microgram there’s no need to worry, they’ll only get dreadfully sick but not die.
The problem with this analysis, db, is that with ongoing and unprecedented deforestation, the extra CO2 is not being abated but is increasing, so explain how unbalanced and foreign introduction of CO2 (foreign meaning anthropogenic) is beneficial to the biosphere. This idea may have a shred of truth and logic to it, if it weren’t for rampant deforestation. It’s nonsense to suggest that putting a balanced system out of balance and then claim that another system that was in tune with that system (the biosphere) and depends on it would somehow benefit from the imbalance, the new instability and the dramatic increase in that very substance that is causing the imbalance. Get it?
And where did you “thrash” me? Hardly, I just decided to not waste my time and moved on. The late, great George Carlin had great advice about arguing with certain types of individuals and I just took his advice.
And yes, I am interested in facts, observations, data and the scientific method and another key assessment tool, observation. You have to observe what’s happening in the real world beyond your spreadsheets. That book isn’t opinion and *is* based on science, written by real scientists.
Interesting that you refuse to read even an excerpt from that book. A certain caricature comes to mind of a large bird with its head in the sand.
Madigan needs to be schooled:
Before we started emitting giga-tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, the system was in balance.
The system is never in balance.
So we should invent something that allows us to breathe CO2 since it’s so beneficial.
Non sequitur nonsense.
the extra CO2 is not being abated but is increasing…
Good.
…so explain how unbalanced and foreign introduction of CO2 (foreign meaning anthropogenic) is beneficial to the biosphere.
I’ll explain, but you still won’t get it: CO2 is CO2, there’s no “foreign” CO2. But thanx for trying. The biosphere is thriving and expanding due directly to the added CO2. That isn’t even debatable any more. Agricultural yields are rising in lock-step with rising CO2 — which has been up to 20X higher in the past without ever causing a climate catastrophe.
…rampant deforestation…
Forest in the U.S. are increasing. There are more trees now than a century ago.
…the imbalance, the new instability…
Ha-ha! You really believe that?? The past century has been a true “Goldilocks” period, with global temperatures flatter than any comparable time frame in the geologic record. The tiny 0.7º wiggle in global T is so small that it’s questionable whether it even occurred. Just before our current Holocene, temperatures fluctuated by TENS of degrees — within only a decade or two. But the alarmist cult worries about ±0.7º over a century?? You folks exist in a separate bubble from rational skeptics.
…where did you “thrash” me?
That’s easy: you emit your opinions, while I post numerous sources and citations in my links. On this science site, baseless assertions lose.
…I am interested in facts, observations, data and the scientific method and another key assessment tool, observation.
I ‘observe’ that you can’t recall what I wrote.
Here are some facts you can ponder: there is nothing either unusual, or unprecedented happening with global temperatures — unless you consider the lack of variability to be unusual, and it is.
The alarmist cult has been flat wrong about every scary prediction they ever made. No exceptions. When someone is always wrong, reasonable people will begin to snicker at what they say. That’s what the public is doing. A few years ago a majority of comments in the general media expressed concern about AGW. No more! Now, most comments ridicule the scare.
The alarmist cult has boxed themselves in by doubling down on it. They don’t have facts, observations, data, or anything else on their side of the debate. And the scientific method? Alarmists don’t know what that is.
So now it’s real world evidence versus baseless assertions. Because that’s all you’ve got.
Hey Eric,
You should give up your current career as a climate blogger and start a new one as a graphic artist. Great Photoshop job on the UK (a la The Day After Tomorrow), leaving the island of Ireland all green and lush and the UK all frozen over. Brilliant!
Madigan doesn’t like reality. That pic is produced by MODIS in the UK — hardly a skeptics’ organization.
Given that the effects wouldn’t be hyper-selective, as is what is being suggested, the expectation would be that proximate landmasses would exhibit the same effects.
Pass me the George, bottle.
Unless the westerly, moist air collided into a blocking high over Britain/ east of the isle, over North Sea.
I remember that year snow covered pretty much all the GB. The really cold year prior to one in question had sea water turn to ice which would wash on shore. A truly insane situation given UK’s usual weather.
P.s. Ireland had plenty of snow that winter too.
The winter of ’62 is what convinced Callendar that his 1938 hypothesis of man-made global warming had been falsified. Of course, he thought AGW was a good thing, as did Arrhenius before him.
So did its advocates in the 1970s, when it was hoped that human activities might forestall the apparently rapidly approaching next ice age. Note that CO2 had been increasing since the end of WWII during these over 30 years of global cooling.