The Recent Senate Climate Hearing Failed Because It Continues To Miss The Point

Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball

L-R Dr. Judith Curry, Dr. Will Happer, and Mark Steyn at Senate hearing today. Photo: Dr. John Christy

L-R Dr. Judith Curry, Dr. Will Happer, and Mark Steyn at Senate hearing December 8th, 2015. Absent from photo: Dr. John Christy

Courts will not listen to or judge scientific disputes. The basic argument is that it is “your paper” against “their paper” and they are not qualified to judge. This was the issue when I participated in appeals to the US Supreme Court over actions of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). It is also the case in the three lawsuits filed against me. They are charges of defamation and not about the science. The lawsuits are effectively Strategic Lawsuits against Public Participation (SLAPP) or a legal form of ad hominem attack. The question is, if I am so wrong about the science, as they claim, then why the lawsuits? The answer is because they cannot say I am not qualified, although they tried, and my ability to explain the complexities of climate science in a way the public understands threatens them.

The same problems confront any discussion in a formal hearing about climate science. Politicians are no better equipped or qualified to determine a science confrontation than the Courts. Scientists who participated in the December 8, 2015, Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness, Senate Hearings were exposed to such a dilemma. They found themselves in a forum where they were not qualified to provide the answers to questions and thus effectively lost the case. There is a solution to the challenge, but neither they nor those who organized the hearings understood it.

My presentation at the first Heartland Climate Conference in New York explained the challenges faced by the scientists identified pejoratively as Deniers in the Senate Hearings. Many listened but the few that understood were people involved in communicating science to the public. They knew the pitfalls and the techniques necessary. I underscored my point by saying that Al Gore’s movie deserved an Oscar because it was a brilliant piece of propaganda produced in the fantasyland of Hollywood. They knew how to dramatize the science to catch and hold people’s attention. Chief Justice Burton of the UK Court ruled it was propaganda in the week before Gore received his Nobel Prize, but did not order that it not be shown in the schools, even though it had nine scientific errors. Instead, he ordered that students be apprized of the problems and then shown another documentary for balance. Unfortunately, this assumes that students and teachers can determine who is right and who is wrong.

My message in New York was if the Skeptics are to counteract Hollywood they must understand and apply the same basic techniques. They must abandon the idea that getting access to Washington and participating in public hearings before Congress will achieve the goal of educating the public to the scientific truth. They must show how “Their paper” was deliberately falsified in terms the public can understand. The recent US Senate hearings failed because the “Deniers” explained the scientific problems with the science of “Their Paper.” The politicians and public didn’t understand the difference. Even if they entertained the idea that “Their Paper” was wrong they were confronted with the question of whether the errors were from incompetence or corruption, something the presenters of “Your Paper” were not able or willing to answer.

The title of the Senate Hearing “Data or Dogma? Promoting Open Inquiry in the Debate over the Magnitude of Human Impact on Earth’s Climate” guaranteed it would fail with most people. It failed despite the imbalance in presenters with four, Dr. John Christie, Dr. Judith Curry, Dr. Will Happer, and Mark Steyn arguing for Data, and Dr. David Titley tepidly arguing for Dogma. The imbalance is not surprising. I know it is difficult to get someone to debate the Dogma and that if they are willing to debate it means they know very little about the science. The failure was not the fault of the presenters rather it was the entire problem of arguing science in a political forum. It is similar to why courts won’t consider scientific disputes.

Dr. Curry signaled the defeat when she correctly demanded the right to defend her scientific integrity against the charge of being called a denier. I was surprised because I thought Dr. Curry learned the lesson about how nasty people are when you challenge the prevailing wisdom. Early in the ongoing saga about global warming, Dr. Curry leaned toward the AGW theory and IPCC science thus making her acceptable to her academic colleagues. Then, to her everlasting credit, Dr. Curry, tried to pursue proper scientific method by inviting Steve McIntyre to her University, Georgia Tech, to make a presentation on his analysis of the ‘hockey stick’. McIntyre commented about the reaction.

Readers of this blog should realize that Judy Curry has been (undeservedly) criticized within the climate science community for inviting me to Georgia Tech. Given that the relatively dry nature of my formal interests and presentation (linear algebra, statistics, tree rings etc.) and that I’ve been invited to present by a panel of the National Academy of Sciences, it seems strange that such a presentation to scientists should provoke controversy, but it did.

 

You cannot imagine how nasty people get until you experience it by challenging their prevailing wisdom. Dr. Curry learned as I did that the surprising and most emotionally disturbing attacks came from colleagues.

Skeptics were pleased with the performance of the presenters in Washington because they know about the science and the issues. What they forget is that the majority don’t know. Skeptics must first step out of their bias and view events objectively. Then they must understand the subjective perspective of those who don’t understand the science, which includes most of the public, the media, and the politicians.

I respect the science and integrity of those who appeared to explain the Data, however, it was difficult to watch them struggle with the political posturing. This observation is not a criticism because they are scientists and want to avoid politics as much as possible. It is as basic as the fact that by simply appearing for the Data side automatically placed them in the Republican camp. Their presence and arguments made them political. They also lacked understanding of the nature of the debate and how it exposed the Dogma side.

I regret to say the Dogma side won because the Data side failed to deal with the real questions implied in their argument. From the Dogma and citizens perspective science is science, so why are there disagreements? They see the Data presenters as representatives of a political perspective. They think this because they ask why would scientists at the IPCC present misleading data, or worse, manipulate the data? What is their motive? The Data presenter’s political motive is clear to them: they are directly or indirectly under the political or financial influence of the energy sector.

For most people the proof that the Data presenters were political was their failure to answer the questions posed by Senator Markey and others about the 97% consensus and the warmest year on record. In fact, they could not answer them because they require a political answer explaining why they falsified the data and their motive? What answer would you give?

Mark Steyn gave an erudite, humorous, blunt, assessment of the politics involved. The problem is he began by saying he is not a climate scientist. Unfortunately, this only served to underscore the view that his fellow Data panelists were also political. There was no political spokesperson for the Dogma side: Senator Markey knew it wasn’t necessary.

The problem for Data presenters is they are climate scientists, specialists each in one small area of the complex, generalist discipline of climatology. It would require dozens of such specialists to cover the subject and be prepared to answer all the questions and still they could not answer the political or motive questions.

How To Manage A Debate

For approximately three years the Roy Green radio program in Canada offered unlimited airtime for anyone who would debate the issue of Global warming with me. Nobody took the offer! Elizabeth May, leader of the Green Party in Canada, told Roy she wouldn’t debate, but would get someone to do it. A month later she told him that she couldn’t get anyone. This is why I was surprised when Ms. May agreed to a debate with me on the Ian Jessop radio program a few months ago. I won’t speculate on her motive.

I know I won the debate because Ms. May resorted to a personal attack at the end with a veiled threat of “another lawsuit.” It didn’t surprise me, although I was amazed and pleased about how many people picked up on it.

The problem with a global warming debate between two scientists is that the public would not understand; they wouldn’t even know who won. In a debate between a scientist and anyone else the scientist inevitably loses because it becomes about emotions, especially the exploitation of fear. Besides, there is always the fall back precautionary principle that we should act regardless of the evidence.

These conditions formed the basis of my thinking in preparing for my debate with Ms. May. I knew as a lawyer she would try to use detail, to find an “error” to justify rejecting the entire case. I also knew that Ms. May believed, as co-author of Global Warming For Dummies, that she knew the subject.

Ms. May did as I expected and discussed the scientific data and detail. I knew this would go over the head of most listeners as the Data specialist’s information did in Washington. I acted with discipline by not even correcting the many errors Ms. May made. There was no point in getting bogged down in data and detail that few understood. Besides, few would even know who was correct even after the explanation. It is the state of confusion and uncertainty about who to believe that is common for most people.

I did the opposite and provided general comments and examples speaking to the Dogma. The first thing was to undermine the credibility of the IPCC. Most people think that the IPCC study climate and climate change in its entirety. Once they learn that the definition given to them by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) directed them only to study human causes of change, they realize the limitations of their work. You then reinforce the point by explaining that you can’t possibly determine human causes unless you know and understand natural causes. You can reinforce thay point by saying that failed weather and climate forecasts prove we don’t understand the natural causes.

Next, you counter the myth that a majority of scientists (97%?) agree. It is too technical to present the arguments so well laid out in Lord Monckton’s analysis. It is easier and more effective to explain that very few scientists ever read the IPCC Reports. They accept, not unreasonably, the results of other scientists without question, just as the public do. The confession by Klaus-Eckhart Puls does not require data or scientific understanding. It expresses emotions people understand, including surprise, shock, and then anger that anyone can appreciate. The IPCC produced scientific documents that decimated all scientific rules, regulations and practices. You don’t need to know that when a scientist publically admits his failure in accepting, and passing on their corrupted science without question.

“Ten years ago I simply parroted what the IPCC told us. One day I started checking the facts and data—first I started with a sense of doubt but then I became outraged when I discovered that much of what the IPCC and the media were telling us was sheer nonsense and was not even supported by any scientific facts and measurements. To this day I still feel shame that as a scientist I made presentations of their science without first checking it.”

He wasn’t fooled; he just didn’t look.

I wrote much of my book The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science years before it was published. I delayed publication because I knew from teaching Science to Arts students for 25 years, giving hundreds of public lectures, and participating in several documentaries that the public was not ready. In many ways, it was still released too early. I know many skeptics shy away from it because it dares to answer the question implied but avoided by the Senate Hearing; if the data is falsified who would do that and why? The question that automatically arises when you argue the Data or Skeptic side is MOTIVE. Not only did the Dogma win, but they also scored points by the inability of the Data specialists to answer questions that required providing the motive.

Elaine Dewar provided the motive after spending five days with Maurice Strong at the UN where he created the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), the UNFCCC and the IPCC.

Strong was using the U.N. as a platform to sell a global environment crisis and the Global Governance Agenda.

Even if the Data specialists or Mark Steyn spoke to this motive Senator Markey would argue, falsely but effectively, that it was necessary to save the planet and dismiss them as conspiracy theorists. We are still a long way from the point when explaining the motive to the public would resonate. It requires exposition of the crimes first, and that requires explaining the science in ways the public understand. One factor that prevents those that are able is seeing what happened to Dr. Curry, myself, or several others. Just ask Dr. Richard Lindzen. The price paid for even seeking the truth in climate science is financially and emotionally high, and few are willing to pay the price. Besides, the Dogmatists and the public believe energy companies’ reward them well for their efforts.

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Gary Masding

Very well written, thank you Tim!

Marcus

Thanks again Tim, you make most Canadians proud !!!

Brian

I guess the message I’d hoped the hearings highlighted is that the science is not settled. Once that point has been made, then many doors are unlocked.

co2islife

Courts will not listen to or judge scientific disputes. The basic argument is that it is “your paper” against “their paper” and they are not qualified to judge. This was the issue when I participated in appeals to the US Supreme Court over actions of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). It is also the case in the three lawsuits filed against me. They are charges of defamation and not about the science. The lawsuits are effectively Strategic Lawsuits against Public Participation (SLAPP) or a legal form of ad hominem attack.

This is why I’ve been arguing that real scientist need to focus on the arguments 8th Graders would understand. Warmists can always come up with nonsense to confuse the uneducated. That is why this will be so difficult to defeat, science requires integrity. People trust these people are being honest. When you corrupt the peer review process it is like Caesar crossing the Rubicon. To address this there needs to be a department of scientific integrity and validity of conclusions. There needs to be a double blind approach to validating, verifying and replicating the science. No way in the world could the Hockeystick ever be independently replicated. Using a Nature Trick to Hide the decline is unique to the researcher attempting to reach a preconceived conclusion. So are comments like “we have to get rid of the medieval warming period.” http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/08/the-truth-about-we-have-to-get-rid-of-the-medieval-warm-period/
The Climategate Emails expose outright fraud, and yet nothing can be done. The models aren’t even close, and no one is held accountable. Something needs to be done. Eisenhower warned of this in his farewell address. Everyone needs to see this clip to be reminded of what is happening.
https://youtu.be/QowL2BiGK7o?t=1h2m7s

Ian

“.. a major turning point..” [because with] “the Republicans taking control of the house and gaining seats in the senate..”
In light of yesterday’s ignominious tuck-tail-and-run on the spending bill, which gave Obama and the democratic left a free pass on pretty much whatever they wanted, HOW SAD. In the eyes of their supporters, the Republicans’ image will be stained for a long time. For good reason.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/12/ted-cruz-spending-gop-surrendering-to-obama-213448
What a mess. Voices of reason should consider fielding candidates as independents.

Ian W

This is the reason for the lack of success of the ‘professional politicians’ in the current Republican presidential race. Unfortunately, no professional politician can be trusted; they have raised dissembling to an art form.

Shawn Marshall

Sen Cruz held the hearing to debunk the climate liars. He is the only candidate calling BS on AGW. He should be vigorously supported.

Barbara

Check out how many Republican senators and congressmen support renewable energy. Start with Iowa.

. . .To address this there needs to be a department of scientific integrity and validity of conclusions.

Good grief! What, another government department, which would inevitably be perverted by bureaucrats pursuing political agendas?
No, the CAGW edifice has to be toppled by scientists themselves, willing to defy the high priesthood, be denounced as heretics, and threatened with loss of position, livelihood, maybe even freedom and life. They have to stand up in public and challenge the major science organizations to recognize and expose the hoax, and they have to do so loudly enough that the media are forced to pay attention. Once that happens, the public will as well.
Fortunately the skeptical side has a goodly number of valiant spokesmen, including Dr. Ball, but there needs to be a critical mass, especially among the young, willing to defy their elders in the academies and societies. So long as the majority are kowtowed by the powerful into towing the orthodox line, there is no chance that the Dogma will be overturned—as it must be, before great harm is done to science and to mankind.
/Mr Lynn

LE
You could be right LE.
A march in DC or thru NYC.
I’m totally down with body painting and the like.
I’m sure your well aware that one of the key groundswell moments for green groups was back in Brazil 1992. Nearly 20K NGO organized activists went to “Earth Summit”. Politicians paid attention to this … esp European politicians who were actively courting green groups as political strategy.
WUWT, JoNova and the like are basically NGOs that exist primarily in the e-world. If they could attract attention to themselves in a meaningful way, they will also attract the attentions of a political power group.
Essentially, you are using the tactics of your opponent … worked for them.
Could work for awakening silent majority support for skeptics.
Unfortunately, culturally scientists/engineers are not prone to running around half naked in protest.

@ L.E.Joiner: I believe you are correct. Until enough scientists who see that the “Warmers” are supporting an agenda rather than the true science and form their own consensus that the AGW groups are wrong, this scam will proceed forever. It is not enough for citizens like me to oppose the climate warming crowd but it takes a “million person” march to bring this to the attention of the public. I would hope and pray that someone can organize such a demonstration at the door of the White House. That action should gain some public approval if done in a responsible manner. I would be willing to attend and add to the group. I believe it needs the leadership of a person like Dr. Bell and Ms Curry and others to give the march more credence.

@ walter mattson: Unlike the ‘activists’ like Hansen and the Trotskyite rent-a-mobs that have adopted ‘climate justice’ as their cause-de-jour, I don’t think you’ll find many real scientists willing to march in favor of empiricism and rationality. That’s the problem: by using ‘climate’ to further a globalist political agenda, the Climatists can enlist every misguided fanatic and ne’er-do-well on the planet to support their cause. Rational people have jobs and families and the sense to shy away from mass movements.
But at some point in the halls of the academy there has to be a rebellion against the stultifying oppression of Climate Dogma. It is hard for me to believe that entire generations of graduate students and post-docs can be brow-beaten forever into marching into the trenches of True Belief in an utterly failed and falsified hypothesis.
But it will take courage on the part of younger scientists to challenge the Climate Elders, risking those very jobs and families. It needs to happen with enough fanfare to encourage them all. A “million-man” march is unlikely, but hundred-man meetings at every Climate-U is possible. Perhaps ordinary citizens like us can aid by creating a Foundation that will help support independent ‘skeptical’ research and even livelihoods of young scientists willing to defy the establishment, as I suggested here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/26/climate-rationalization-beliefs-and-denialism/#comment-2056577
/Mr Lynn

marlene

I’m no expert and less knowledgeable than most who post here, but it seems to me that the courts can and should rule on the issue when there is a preponderance of evidence challenging false science when that false science is used as a basis for regulations, especially regulations that tax the people. Then the court can rule that defendant Agency cannot use said science as a basis for their regulations, especially the EPA’s regulations outside their scope of authority and have to do with global issues, and that all regulations requiring taxes, must be denied. ???

Marlene, courts often have juries rule on ‘science’, for example expert witnesses in medical malpractice, or the infamous junk science silicone breast implants. But here, the Clean Air Act delegated the science determination to the US EPA . All courts can rule on is whether the EPA followed the CCA prescibed process for making its scientific determinations. The most recent SCOTUS determination that the new EPA mercury rules were illegal was because the EPA did not follow the process; it embedded the outcome at the beginning. Thus did CO2 become carbon pollution via the sue and settle strategy of Mass. v. EPA.
As a rule, appellate courts in the US only rule on matters of law, not fact. Facts are determined at the trial level, or stipulated. So Dr. Ball is correct on appellate review of science ‘facts’ under common law systems as in the US, Canada, UK, and Australia (although each country has wrinkles and exceptions).

Richard Barnett

Yes the EPA was sent back to the lower court to reargue it case. Recently the lower court allowed the EPA an extension where as the EPA promised it would be ready to present its case by April 16th. Just so happens the April 16th date is the deadline for coal plants that requested an extionsion to meet the Hg regulations. So even though the SCOTUS found that the EPA did not follow the rules set out in the Clean Air Act they did not issue a stay in the case against the EPA. All operating Coal Fired Steam Electric plants will still be forced to abide by the Hg limits enforced by the over reaching EPA. Perhaps the EPA’s Hg rule better known as MATS Regulations will be overturned in the lower court only after EPA made the U.S. Coal fleet spend 100’s of millions of dollars on unneeded activated carbon injection equipment.

marlene

Further, all lawsuits against the plaintiffs from a science case that’s already been heard, whether ruled upon or not, should be dismissed as their credentials were deemed acceptable at trial and their science has already been challenged in court and is in the record; and dismissed as a challenging, again, a settled issue, settled one way or another or dismissed for lack of standing, or any other reason. ???

marlene

OOPS – I am referring to the case being settled or dismissed, not the science. If the EPA coulld be prevented from using science as a basis for their regulations that require taxes from the people, than I think, many regulations would bite the dust, because the underlying reasons for most EPA regulations these days is for the revenue generated by the taxes, and as we know, most of such regulations do come from false science, or “secret” science. ???

Barbara

Ecojustice Canada has filed a climate change complaint with the Competition Bureau which could lead to criminal charges over climate change billboards in Canada.
Friends of Science and the Heartland Institute are two of the three parties named in this complaint.
If one legal tactic doesn’t apply, then find another legal tactic.
Ecojustice has also been involved in legal actions against Exxon Mobil Canada.

If you can stand watching something that will annoy you, try watching this movie and check for nuggets of where ecofringers are coming from … http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1869716/ … The East

Steve in Seattle

The ONLY court that matters going forward is the court of public opinion. All efforts should be directed at producing a series of Radio / TV spots for national airing, along the lines of the 4 inconvenient Truths post here, awhile back. Warmists and Dems are locked into their agenda, they will go to their graves with their lies.

I would have thought that the science matters above all first. You need incontrovertible science to form the backbone of any publicity you then decide.

Richard
You miss the simple power of the opponent.
Your opponent pounds the table that the UNCERTAINTY of the unknown concerning CAGW requires action ?
They masterfully manipulated risk management to get what they wanted.
This is a baited riddle for most scientists because scientists LOVE to go down a rabbit hole of detail irrespective of its perspective weight in the decision making. Far too often they are tricked by their own desire to “figure it out” into an increasingly meaningless debate over minutia.
Your opponent gets an intellectual woodie when you do that.

A different take.
After 5 IPCCs, the warmunists have become adept at reducing sketchy data to dogma, and the dogma to soundbites folks like Markey memorize and spew. That, after all, is what the SPM’s do. Soundbites are political, not scientific. What has to be done is reduce the good climate science to political sound bites, then fire back early and often.
Stuff like polar bears do NOT depend on summer ice. 70 percent of their annual total feeding is seals on spring ice during the pupping season, and they are thriving.
Arctic ice not gone, rather recovering.
SLR not accelerating in either well sited tide gauge or satellite altimetry estimates.
Models diverging from surface temp estimates, and surface temp estimates diverging from satellite temp estimates because because of urban heat contamination.
No observable increase in weather extremes like tropical storms, tornados, heatwaves,…
Planet is measurably greening thanks to increased CO2 beneficial impact on C3 plant photosynthesis and transpiration.
Sure there is a 97 percent consensus that AGW gets a lot of scientific attention because of all the money. And that CO2 is a GHG. And that it has warmed since the LIA. But not that CO2 caused all the warming, because before 1975 it could not have. The world cooled slightly from 1950 to 1975. It warmed from 1920-1950, but there was not enough CO2 to make a difference.
Did you know, Senator, that one third of the total CO2 increase has come since 2000, a period in which two satellite and four weather balloon records show the world has not warmed at all?
Please stop bringing skeptical science knives to political gunfights. Not a complicated problem.

This post and the ristvan comment immediately above pretty much mirrors my comments from the following post about a week ago
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/12/america-we-have-a-problem/
My words from Dec 12, 2015 at 6:03pm

When will the people who have a voice on the skeptic side start playing varsity ball?

and my follow-up at Dec 12, 2015 at 10:19pm which ends with almost the same words as the ristvan comment above

I very much respect and agree with most of what I hear and read from Dr Christy, Dr Curry, and Mr Steyn as well. I own two of Mr Steyn’s books and support his cause against our favorite hockey player. I didn’t mean to imply otherwise, but simply wanted to point out that this hearing went better for warmists than it did for skeptics in my opinion.
How long have we been hearing the “settled science” and the 97% consensus? Yet, all the skeptics in the room seemed unprepared to refute those tired old arguments and also unprepared to counter reasons brought up as to why observations championed by skeptics are just wrong or cherry picked. Sheesh!
Time to start bringing the A-game, folks. Stop bringing switchblades to gunfights.

Great minds think alike? or, more likely, I just got lucky?

Dunno about great, but minds thinking alike for sure. Help craft the sound bites.

As my grandma used to say: Great minds think alike, and fools seldom differ,

Menicholas

What are SPM’s?

IPCC Summaries for Policy Makers, a maybe 20 page political condensation of maybe a 1000 page IPCC WG. Google is your friend here. AR4 and AR5 are instructive. Read the WG1s, and rhen the SPMs. A painful exercise, but very instructive. All politically adjusted. Five times, now. You know, highly confident and all that other false stuff.

Samuel C. Cogar

ristvan said:

What has to be done is reduce the good climate science to political sound bites, then fire back early and often.

ristvan, …… 100% right you are.
The “nice n’ polite” guys and gals voicing their knowledge of science will always finish “dead last” in a political debate wherein the “subject matter” in question is primarily the nurtured Religious beliefs of their opponent(s) and a large percentage of the populace
To be the “winner” of such a debate one has to “embarrass the hell out of their opponent” ….. right there in front of God and everyone …. via comments and critiques that the observing audience can relate to and comprehend …. and their opponent can not deny, discredit or “weazelword” any idiotic excuses to justify their silly rhetoric.
Rebuttal comments such as …… “So you believe humans evolved from a monkey” ….. always gets the audience’s attention.

Ian

Well, it would have helped if the series of false claims by Democrats (notably Markey)
were not met with polite silence but rather were promptly shown to be nonsense.
Except for a few belated objections, they were not challenged until Cruz’s summation.
By then, so much of the stage had been monopolized, the perception to an unfamiliar audience
was dominated by exaggeration.
In terms of impact on the public and those making decisions, none of this probably
matters much – because MSM kept Cruz’s hearing hermetically sealed and Cruz’s
fellow Republicans didn’t even bother to show up. Reinforced by their latest failure,
agreement to a massive spending package that gave Obama the keys to the bank,
it’s another nail in the coffin of a species that is now on the endangered list.

Dave_G

Surely the absolute minimum the courts could declare would be that the science ISN’T settled? Surely this is the ONLY response the courts should declare?

Not in the US. Especially not with respect to CCA. See comment to Marlene, above.
The core problem is the CCA definition of a pollutant as something that pollutes. Without defining what that circular definition means. Sulfur dioxide, NOx, and particulates are obvious because they generally are not in an unpolluted atmosphere. CO2 is the opposite, so completely legally arbitrary. It is always present since essential for lifegiving photosynthesis. Something Congress never thought about when legislating CCA to stop smog and acid rain. There are simple legislative solutions provided veto proof. Vote wisely.

Ian

I presume you mean CAA (Clean Air Act). Delegating the determination of science to
the US EPA is like delegating the judgment on Evolution v Creationism to the Vatican.
As recently exposed, the adjudicator has been hopelessly corrupted by the green lobby.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-epas-secret-staff-1450483019
The CAA needs to be reshaped – to achieve the equivalent of a separation of church and state.
Cruz has the right idea. Unfortunately, he belongs to a party that hasn’t the resolve of a bed of kelp.

Ian says: I presume you mean CAA (Clean Air Act). Delegating the determination of science to
the US EPA is like delegating the judgment on Evolution v Creationism to the Vatican.
If you are a Creationist, then the analogy would be a good one. But if you mean by this that you think the Catholics are anti-evolution, this would not be a good analogy because the official position of the Church is that evolution is a fact. As I understand it, the Catholic Church holds that there is no conflict between religion and the theory of evolution.
I do agree that the EPA is overreaching its statutory authority. I would also agree that the EPA is not properly balancing economic costs and benefits of the regulations it promulgates, so much so that the Agency has become more dangerous than beneficial to the people it was created to serve.
I would go further, the Federal Government is usurping the role of the states in environmental management to such an extent that the US is on its way to becoming a unitary state in relation to air, and water management.
Why is the US Corps of Engineers still doing work that civilians could do better? There may have been some justification in the past but is it not absurd that the US Corps of Engineers is still operational in the US which is not been a theater of war for over 150 years?
Why has the Federal Government maintained ownership of vast expanses of land after territories became states? Does it make any sense at all for the Federal Government to own so much land?

Vanessa

I watched the Senate Debate and found it very interesting. I have just watched again the Channel 4 film The Great Global Warming Swindle made in 2007 (I think). It sets out the basic science that even a 3-year old would understand – it should be compulsory viewing for all children. In the film it makes very clear the motive Margaret Thatcher had to support the IPCC because of UK problems with energy in the 1970s. I find it so wrong that scientists cannot win a debate by telling the truth but that it has to be wrapped up in some propaganda to help the public change their mind – I don’t know what the answer is.

csanborn

Thanks Dr. Ball. It’s a sad, but apparently true commentary on the condition of intelligent thought by Americans that we apparently as a whole do not have the ability to think critically, not just in issues of science, but in matters of politics, managing our own finances, etc., etc… We are distracted sheep being led, in step, to slaughter, with conventional wisdom and the media playing the marching music. I’m not a scientist, but I learned in high school that science demands adherence to rules, i.e. the scientific method. But when even I started checking out all this AGW/CAGW talk in 2007, it took me only 2 weeks on the web to not only believe but to know that there was no adherence to scientific principles in the AGW “science” – principles I learned in high school, for crying out load. Whatever happened to the burden of proof being on those presenting a new hypothesis? When one credible scientist can demonstrate incorrect, with data, what ninety nine other scientists claim, that is a huge problem for the ninety nine, not the one. The sad thing is that even with an abundance of credible non-AGW climate scientists, many are still compelled to march to the slaughter. A greater concern to me is that this whole AGW facade is merely one of others kinds of insidious facades (“marches” to socialism?) – all very carefully planned.

4 Eyes

Dr. Tim, You don’t mention the MSM and their role in this. They are the truly scientifically illiterate in this debate and they have no ethics. The columnists have to make money for their employers and a never ending story of fear is the easiest way to do this. It is far too hard for those lazy people to properly investigate, by seeking out well qualified scientists at both ends of the spectrum and “cross examining” them until they understand just how hard climate science really is. Blogs are leaving the MSM behind although I think prominent media outlets will soon see the newsworthiness of presenting the true picture, inconvenient facts and all.

Ian L. McQueen

More and more I am condemning journalists, for unless they check the accuracy of their stories they are only repeating what they are told by the warmists. I liked Rule #3 of Gibbs on a recent NCIS program: “Always check things for yourself.”
Ian M

katherine009

You must understand that with the media, “if it bleeds, it leads” is paramount. Bad news sells, good news doesn’t. Until exposing the fraud that is the warmist agenda garners more audience attention than “extreme weather”, they are blind, deaf and dumb.

JohnKnight

katherine,
“You must understand that with the media, “if it bleeds, it leads” is paramount. Bad news sells, good news doesn’t.”
With such mantras.truisms pounded into our heads (by the mass media), it is quite possible for those who own and therefore control what the mass media presents, to have it serve up just about anything those owners want us to see, and much of the public will simply assume it was served up according to those mantras/truisms.
It’s a perfect “cover” for distorting and outright lying, as long as some sort of “this could be bloody bad news for someone someday” spin is included. Catastrophic global warming is a perfect example, since if it happened it would, by definition, be bloody bad news for millions. There need be no actual global warming even taking place, and still the “story” can be cast as a major threat being covered by a mass media that is simply “doing its job”.
I advise one not believe the mass media is really bound by any such mantras-truisms at all. I advise one realize its just a propaganda system, pretending to be serving up what the public wants to hear.

The two most important things on the side of critics of CAGW , one is the climate, not much is happening, and two, time. Whether CAGW realizes it or not they’ve locked themselves in a race with time. They’ve made catastrophic predictions by certain dates. This has lent urgency to their side that something has to be done. That urgency becomes less urgent as time goes by. The cost of destroying your economy becomes considerable more than dealing with the issues at hand. I think that was the overriding idea in Paris. There may be another climate conference in 5 years, but I doubt there will be one in 10.
The 1970’s were not a fun time for those watching food reserves. It wasn’t that cold. Today with so many more people that would be a serious issue.
CAGW had better hope they are right. If it gets colder in the coming decade they will be held accountable. They’ve stood in the way of every serious debate. Doesn’t it strike anybody as odd that no planning has been done for global warming? You would think that civil defense would be setting up plans and alerting the public on how to move with higher sea levels. You would think they would be doing all kinds of things. They’re not. The only solution, which is a non solution, is to stop co2 production. That’s not going to happen.
In short, the government doesn’t believe it either.

clipe

In short, the government doesn’t believe it either.
Glad I’m not the only one who noticed this>

clipe

ignore angle bracket…finger on shift key

MarloweJ

“CAGW had better hope they are right. If it gets colder in the coming decade they will be held accountable.”
Unfortunately no one will be held accountable. Like cockroaches they will all scurry away and hide until the next great cause for fear, regulation and control can be found.

Ian W

If it gets colder in the next few years (and there are many forecasts that it will) watch the warmists do a practiced seamless volte face and Carbon Dioxide will be causing the cold. They have been there before.

I’d have less respect for their disciplined approach if they didn’t.

RT

I totally disagree, its a lot worse; they will be there heroes that saved the world!

Yirgach

Their entire agenda (although I do not like absolutes) is based on reduced consumption caused by less population. From their point of view, you cannot have it both ways.
It is a one way street towards a lower population and a reduced lifestyle.
How soon that reduction occurs and what it will entail is up to these evil monsters.
That is why you won’t see any “planning for global warming”, they are planning along completely different lines.

Billy

It looks like circumstances will bring on the Warmist utopia soon enough. Western nations will be poor and these elites will be thrown out.

JohnKnight

Billy,
“Western nations will be poor and these elites will be thrown out.”
By whom? As poverty increases, the ability of those in power to enforce their will increases, it seems inevitable to me.. People in the employ of those “rulers” become less willing to risk their now desperately needed employment, and more willing to go along to get along, naturally.
That’s why we are being “herded” down the path we are on, I believe. More and more dependence on Government, less ans less real alternative. There really are some people with great wealth and influence, so self centered and ruthless, who got together and decided to put the kibosh on free and prosperous society, so they could live out their lives as virtual gods, I am convinced.
And that’s why “conspiracy” among the hyper-wealthy/powerful is treated as an absolute impossibility, which one must ostensibly be crazy to even suspect. Are there now and have there always been crime syndicates, cartels, Mafias, etc, that have amassed great wealth? Sure, but that’s different . . in a pig’s ass ; )

JK
Whether they did it via a society of ________ or just plain ole hyperstratification, they DO do it.
Really, the only evidence you need to see is the hyperstratified societies in London and NYC.
I don’t blame them for that tendency. We humans seem to stratify on many other levels. It’s just what we do.
They just take it to a whole nother level.

JohnKnight

knutesea,
I’m not talking about “stratification”, I’m talking about organized crime essentially, taken to another level.
“It’s just what we do.”
So is organized crime.

apparently there is room in society for organized crime.
I hear that Italy is having a resurgence as the “migration” is overwhelming the sanctioned police force.

JohnKnight

I’m not interested in word games, knutesea, I’m talking about organized crime that intends to destroy current “Western” civilization, because that’s where top-down rule by a few “elites” has been thwarted, to some extent.
If you feel there’s “room” in society for that sort of organized crime . . well, I beg to differ ; )

JK
We seem to get to the same place each time this subject comes up.
I never mean to play word games with you. Sorry if I create that mess.
I’d rather have an orderly sense of safety, live within a reasonable social contract and have time to ponder my navel. Unfortunately, I am increasingly faced with ensuring my own safety, shrinking the circle of the social contract and less time to ponder my navel.
I assume that when others in the world are faced with similar choices they do what they need to do. I have no illusions about how vigilante forces degrade into organized crime. I don’t like it and don’t wish that environment on anyone, but I am aware that it becomes the lesser of evils.
Clear ?

JohnKnight

Not quite clear, Knute . . what is the greater evil you evoke?
Those “elite” criminals are monsters to me . . mass murderers, and worse . .

When the society you live in is no longer safe and the societal structures can’t provide that safety, people are often left with a choice of vigilante protection that often degrades into organized crime. I can understand how people choose the vigilante protection vs being unsafe. I think it’s a slippery slope type risk.
I know from reading your posts that you are ready to call elitists the equivalent of mass murderers. I understand how one can come to that conclusion. With great resource and power comes great responsibility. When they abuse it, many more suffer.

JohnKnight

knutesea,
“I know from reading your posts that you are ready to call elitists the equivalent of mass murderers.”
No sir, you can’t know such a thing from my posts, for I’m not speaking of a general class of people called ‘elitists’ . . I’m suggesting it is actual organized crime we are being over-run by . . actual ruthless mobster types, who have people killed and so on, routinely, Not “the rich”, not “the elitists”, not “the left”, etc, but just SOME of the elite, rich, military, financiers, media moguls …. who are in a sort of super Mafia.
They just want all the power, period. (As I see the matter).

rw

Yep this is why AGW could eventually be a “perfect storm” that the warmists will be caught in – or the ultimate exploding cigar. Also, nobody knows when the tipping point will come, just that it will. The challenge will be to leverage it when it happens. This should be one faux pas that they can’t shuffle their way past.

So should they/we not have had this hearing? The senator who set up this hearing understands both the science, and the dogma.
You have to keep picking away at “dogma” wherever it rears its ugly head.
That senator, Ted Cruz, has an actual shot at the US presidency. So I guess this meeting was preaching to the choir, but it may have caused some doubts in some people’s minds – those who are open minded.
As president, Cruz could choose some real scientists to head some of our most powerful energy related agencies such as the EPA, for starters.
We have to (must) start somewhere, and since you believe this meeting was a wash, what would you suggest in its place? I was waiting to see a better solution at the end of your article (maybe I missed it). Do you have a better solution than meetings like this? At least both sides showed up, even though it was lopsided.
I would have liked to have seen Dr. Patrick Moore at that meeting, (and Anthony W. for that matter)…

James Francisco

The hearing did accomplish one thing for sure and that is I am changing my Grand Old Party (GOP) primary vote from Rubio to Cruz.

Unfortunately this is a race about the female voting block. Hillary had a big chunk approaching 70%. That’s shrunk to sub 50. If anyone wants to be beat Hillary they will have to capture the female vote. Does Cruz appeal to the female vote ?

Menicholas

I changed my vote to Cruz and joined his organization several weeks ago after I saw that video of him at a hearing with that no-nothing CEO (who’s name escapes me at the moment).
For the first time in my life I am a single issue voter.

Samuel C. Cogar

@ knutesea
That female voting block approaching 70% ….. for Hillary, …doesn’t surprise me any ….. simply because of the scientific fact that the human female is born with an “inherited survival instinct” that pretty much dictates that she makes an “emotional decision” rather than a ”logical decision” in times of trouble, fear, self-preservation or danger to her offspring (child/children)

Yup, ole Hillary has the gender card much like Obama had the black card. If the GOP fails to select a candidate that attracts the females, ain’t no way they get elected.

Samuel C. Cogar

Now don’t let the touting of Hillary’s poll #’s get your common sense reasoning all confused and bewildered.
Iffen 1,000 registered Democrat females were asked (polled) which of the three (3) Democrat POTUS candidates they would vote for in the Primary Elections, …… a cold 6-pack of beer says that its no surprise that 70% of those females would choose Hillary.
But the Primaries don’t mean diddly poop, …… it’s the General Election that determines “who” the Electoral College seats as (votes to be) POTUS.

Good points, J.P.
I think Tim Ball is using the wrong yardstick. One such hearing is never going to sway the majority of the audience outright. However, giving a stage to scientists like John Christy – I thought his testimony was very clear, calm, and effective – will make some people realize that there is indeed another side to the debate.
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”
All we can do is to give a hand to those who are ready to recover their senses, to start thinking for themselves. The senate hearing did contribute to that.

RockyRoad

Add to that the excoriating description Mark Steyn gave regarding his abuse from litigous Michael Mann and the political implications of this Climate Change Meme become very obvious to even unscientific women.
I wonder if Dr. Ball was expecting the momentum of this movement to be eliminated in a single hearing?

JohnKnight

RockyRoad,
It is inconceivable to me that Mr Ball thought a single hearing could slay the CAGW beast . . but he may be underestimating the damage to it that such a hearing can do . . It must, I feel, be born in mind that once someone sees this emperor has no clothes so to speak, they don’t forget and drift back into believing he’s wearing a tailored suit (or lab coat ; )
It’s pretty much a one-way street, with more and more people moving toward skepticism (and even outright disbelief), and very little traffic in the opposite direction. And, it’s the most able to grasp the scientific aspects and political/societal implications, who can then spread the “denial” among their friends and associates. Highly “emotional” or simplistic sorts of approaches are not the only way to make progress in this “war” therefor, . I feel.

DAN SAGE

“As president, Cruz could choose some real scientists to head some of our most powerful energy related agencies such as the EPA, for starters.”
The problem is that the EPA and other such agencies are now populated with “Environmentalists”, who have never learned any real science, so any new leader would just be beating his head against a rock wall composed of idiots from Green Peace. What a pity.

Philip
The GOP has the reins and thus can parade a weekly testimony show if they wanted too.
Skeptics are at a disadvantage because they are outshouted by the larger media. The GOP could help by increasing the exposure to more than just an occasional panel.
I don’t know why they don’t do that … puzzles me.
I was pointed to the fact that the GOP has more personal wealth associated with oil and gas.
http://www.opensecrets.org/
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2015/12/in-climate-debate-obama-faces-a-congress-heavily-invested-in-the-oil-and-gas-industry/
That could be the reason, but I’m just not sure.
They could also have their eyes on the presidential prize and realize that CAGW is not a pivotal issue … they don’t want to blow political capital fighting it.

Bubba Cow

no votes to be gained on that, but potentially many to be lost
wait until after the election

truth

jeff

we need a “Feynman o-ring moment”.

Winston Smith

the natural world will eventually confirm or deny the models, how much of a downward trend in degrees C/year would it take given CO2 levels contnually rising at current rate to invalidate the current models?

People will have to get cold, hungry and pissed off before the spell is broken.

Menicholas

The models are already invalidated.
Any cooling at all would just make them even more thoroughly disproven.
There is a very good reason that the satellite data is studiously ignored by the warmistas, and why the surface data records are in a constant state of adjustment to cool the past and warm the present.
The reason is to prevent cooling from showing up.
None of the models can even be reconciled with the pause, let alone an actual decrease.

RockyRoad

I wish my tomatoes would adjust their climatic requirements along with the homogenizations performed by the Warmistas. I quit growing tomatoes two years ago because I couldn’t get any to ripen–any further cooling will certainly not make things better, regardless of how much they fudge the temperature numbers.

build a greenhouse /sarc

JohnKnight

RockyRoad,
I built a “green box” in which to start my tomatoes (and peppers) earlier . . and not have to pay five bucks a pop for plants someone else started earlier. I will be starting some about the first of the year, not because I can’t get them to ripen here (in California), but because I want them sooner for fresh consumption, and in greater abundance for processing into jars of delicious “salsa” to be consumed all year.
I built it with wheels, so freezing temps (which we can get here till about the end of March) are not a big problem.

On wheels !!!!
That is so smart.
I’ve also been seeing chicken coops on wheels being marketed as Christmas presents.

The story I heard was Feynman was essentially led to the O-rings by someone who had inside information that the O-rings were problematic. Basically complaining the O-rings in his classic car wouldn’t seal when it was cold.

John Casey (part of the investigative team) could verify/validate that story for you … retired now in Floriduh.
Also an active climate skeptic

Tom Crozier

It was Sally Ride.

Tom Crozier

Ride told Kutyna, Kutyna told Feynman…

Tom Crozier

Kutyna used the carburator trick to give Feynman the clue in his garage. Everyone else was a government contractor or employee. Feynman had nothing to lose,

the combustion engine saves civilization once again

Tom Crozier

Here is the transcript (and the subsequent one) were NASA’s cover-up really began to break down. Pay particular attention to the questions of Feynman, Ride, Kutyna, and Wheelon.

Tom Crozier

Thanks Tom
a single voice at the right moment makes a difference

Tom Crozier

DR. FEYNMAN: Mr. Mulloy, when you use a math model, do you have any idea of how accurate it is?
MR. MULLOY: We did not just use the math model. What we did was build a math model that was correlated to test. There was a test fixture that was built to empirically determine the maximum erosion that could occur while filling the annulus between the putty and the primary O-ring and the annulus between the primary and the secondary O-ring.
Then Thiokol’s, Dr. Salita’s math model was shown to correlate very well with that, and I guess I can’t put a percentage accuracy on that. But the fact that the math model correlated pretty well with the test results gave us some confidence in that and the fact that the test demonstrated that there was a significant margin that was tolerable in terms of the amount of erosion, given the dimensional tolerance.
DR. FEYNMAN: I think that the math model determined how the constants were determined and a line was put through the previous data on a somewhat similar material. And the line that was put through deviated. It doesn’t always give the same answer. You took an average rather than the maximum, so that there were factors of 2 above and factors of 2 below on the original data. If you would have known that, you could have appreciated that what this thing predicted could easily be a factor of 2 below the right answer, because in fact it didn’t even fit with the data on which it was constructed.
You weren’t aware of that?
MR. MULLOY: No, sir. I was not aware of that.

Bubba Cow

Thank you, Dr. Ball.
“ … the Dogmatists and the public believe energy companies’ reward them well for their efforts …”
OK, prove it. Lay out graphics for all the money given, invested, granted … for the alarmists and the skeptics. Include it all. Even the bits from/to/through Heartland. Get that unbelievable imbalance firmly embedded in the public’s memory. Let it brew for a bit. Think of the time and careers and industries (NSF, NASA, NOAA, Sierra, Greenpeace, WWF …) that must be protected. Get this massive imbalance entered into evidence. It doesn’t require any scientific background. It is the peoples’ money.
I think the public will not be surprised to learn, yet again, that their government has failed them and has its interest at heart over theirs.
So, what could the government’s motive possibly be?? How are they funding that? I think that picture is clear and opens the door to other pictures – temps vs CO2 since 1750. Government controlling energy by vilifying CO2.

Kermit

Thank you for trying to explain this. I’ve said this for years – we are losing the war. The young people have been indoctrinated into the religion, and, like a Catholic priest once said about the church – “Give them to me in the cradle, and I’ll have them to the grave.” Try explaining to a young person how there is no good science showing CO2 to be a problem and watch their eyes gloss over. Try going on a forum like Ars Technica to explain this. They will argue with you forever about temperatures, or ocean levels, or ocean acidity, or any number of subjects. Tell them that the science consists of curve-fitting computer models to poor quality proxy data, and they will kick you off the forum until the thread dies down. Tell them that what the computer modelers are doing is exactly what Richard Feynman described when he wrote “Cargo Cult Science”, and they will kick you off the forum. I used to go on there for one main reason – to see if some PhDs could pound me into the ground and prove to me that I was wrong. They never could, but they could get rid of my voice whenever I got too close to the truth.
I sense here that we will be vindicated, because we are right. But, that doesn’t mean anything as far as winning. As more and more young people get indoctrinated into the religion, it will get more and more impossible. As more and more companies are given access to streams of new tax money, it will get more and more impossible to change course. At Paris, the people there really got what they were after the most. They got funded another one hundred billion dollars to keep working on this for the coming year.
We’re losing.

We are not losing. Buck up. Even Hansen said COP21 failed. No enforceability. No transparency. No commitment to fund the $100b/year GCF. How about contributing to skeptic sound bite shaping, since this is more about politics than science, and has been ever since the IPCC charter.

katherine009

I agree with Kermit. Even though I agree with your points, an “agreement”, however flawed, will be interpreted by the masses as confirming the issue.
I am very worried about the well-being of my children, and (hopefully, someday) grandchildren. Not because they will face a hostile climate, but because they will have to try to compete in an economy that has been willfully hobbled by its own insanity. For their sake alone, I will continue to try to open their eyes.

For their sake alone, I will continue to try to open their eyes.

The young adults aged between 20 and 40 have witnessed a culture where lying is rewarded if you can get away with it and you can be “somebody” just for knowing “somebody”.
It has created an explosion of the ends justifies the means because they are surrounded by posers, liars and fakes who somehow make it up the ladder to rule the world.
Primarily they are increasingly thinking that they have to have the better hoax to outdo the person who is going to pull a fast one on them first. It’s why the world feels upside down.

But you are not winning.
At best you are nipping at the heels of the giant.
Your opponent is taking advantage of the path of least resistance.

rogerknights

Watts 2015 has the potential to be a turning point. It will cool the ardor of some believers, making them more doubtful. And the public sympathizes with the little guy who exposes a big phony’s baloney. It could become as well-known as the Pause–and as, or more, important. It undermines the case for catastrophe, and thus for action.

Tom Crozier

My favorite Feynman interview, where he explains that to answer a “why” question, you have to get to a point where your audience accepts on faith that something is true.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MO0r930Sn_8

Chris Schoneveld

To answer a “why” question one must assume that there is a reason/intention. You don’t ask why the humans exist, unless you assume that there is a higher being who created us for a reason. Many confuse the “why” question with the “how” question. For example one should ask “How was the universe formed/”, not “Why was the universe formed”.

eo

The mass media is serving items the public would like to hear or know. Even without global warming or global cooling, the most that makes the news are about disasters, murders, accidents, — or all the bad things. If the event reported has taken place, the reporter or the editor imagination to beat the competitors by making the story more attractive to the public by exaggerating the disaster or nasty event is limited by possible verification. However, if the events is still to come and especially if there are computer models and some sort of authority even if a charlatan authority, the reporters and the editors have practically unconstrained use of their imagination to play on the public need for scary stories. This is the big difference– the skeptics position is ” carbon dioxide is the wrong culprit” would only make one news item and that’s it. It will never be a news item again. It is boring, out of place on what the public wants, and what the public wants the politician responds. It is for this reason, “:the end of the world ” and all the fearsome predictions that goes with it is a favorite of charlatans and there are always masses who believes on it and no matter how silly or incorrect the MSM loves it. The skeptics is after the correctness. It may make one new item in the future when proven to be correct but that’s it. One potential news item in the future. Most likely the universal focus will be on another potential disasters. did anybody remember the predictions of millennium bug. how about the clear minds that have tried to tell the public it was not a problem–have there been any acknowledgement of their correctness? How about the scare of the coming of another ice age a few decades back with all the horror stories of famine, diseases, etc. and the skeptics then?
I dont like it but if some of the skeptics would like to win, then paint all the gloomy pictures–run computer models on the increase in electricity price, unemployment, financial crisis, crimes, death, etc. Forget about the impacts on third world countries.

DesertYote

The media serves up stories to drive an agenda.

Gregg C.

Conflating this issue with the millennium bug is incorrect. The reason there were no major disasters behind the millennium bug is the millions (just a WAG) of programming hours invested to correct the problem. I personally spent 6 months working through a legacy system to prevent A/R and other system from losing it because of poorly coded dates.

You really had systems which still had century truncated dates by then ? COBOL ? My old Wall Street conference friend John Westergaard was one of the central gadflies touting the impending disaster . I argued with him the he was grossly exaggerating the number of systems at risk . Lots of systems have lots of different overflow dates . I think C timestamps overflow in another decade or 2 . I just keep timestamps as a float , eg : 20151223.093109 , which I think is a fairly standard practice now days . Overflow’s not an issue .

I don’t know what the answer is.
================
How about starting with one single issue? Ban all Private Jets worldwide. A global ban on private jet travel. A legally enforceable ban. Anyone breaking the ban would be shot down.
Why has this not been done? It is the leaders of the world, political and economic that travel via private jets. These are huge CO2 factories to the benefit of a few. They are spewing carbon pollution down on the rest of us with impunity. Huge CO2 cesspools in the sky, raining down on the rest of us.
If these folks, folks like Gore, Kerry, Clinton and Obama, truly believe that CO2 created Climate Change is the greatest threat, then set an example for the rest of the world. Stop flying around in private jets and travel by coach like the rest of us.
Or is this a case of do as we say and not as we do? Do we in point of fact have a bunch of world-class hypocrites in positions of power, that are more than willing to prescribe a horrible tasting medicine for the rest of us, but would never personally take it themselves?
Start with a single issue. Drive the nail home before moving to the next nail.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on writing 300 comments under the fake “BusterBrown” name, many of them quite long, are wasted because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Gunga Din

Their policies don’t seem to care about loss of others’ lives.
Maybe if it was their own lives and lifestyles at risk from their policies?

Jay Hope

What about all commercial travel? Let’s ban that too, followed by motor sports. Why don’t they do that, if they really think CO2 is the biggest threat to the world? Obama should set the example by giving up Air Force One! And if they were really serious about following this whole thing through, they should start curbing plastics manufacture, which is a huge producer of CO2. Cut down the number of cellphones for instance. Wonder if the warmists would be happy then?

Bubba Cow

My mother – 92 years old – asks me about this and I say, “It’s politics – look at all the traffic, the airports are open, want to watch some NASCAR?”

Hear the wisdom in your gramdma’s wisdom Bubba.
I always test out ideas on my grandma first.
If she can get it the world will understand.

DAN SAGE

“Obama should set the example by giving up Air Force One!”
You mean B.O. would have to telecomute to Hawaii, and watch his vacation on his laptop or smart phone? Maybe, not a bad idea.

katherine009

Are you sure? I thought they were travelling in solar-powered jets!!

Ian W

The fuel consumption of the executive jet could well be better than the limousine that took the executive to the airport. There are more limousines why not start with them?
Modern aircraft are extremely fuel efficient. Modern single aisle aircraft have fuel consumptions well in excess of 100 miles per gallon per passenger. Aircraft are hugely safer than road travel and really the only option for some journeys. That is before you get to the what is the problem with CO2 anyway?

Alan Robertson

A Failure? Hardly! Anyone with eyes to see and ears to hear, would find the alarmist position as nothing but a series of half- truths and logical fallacies.

Excellent post. It is difficult to open closed minds but I believe we are making headway albeit slowly.
The fact that the ‘skeptics’ perspective was given a hearing in congress is encouraging. It is Fear and Greed the henchmen of Political persuasion that have been so adroitly used in this issue, but this old engineer believes there is more common sense than mindless morons out there! let’s hope.

Common sense lives and breaths.
It’s distracted and scared these days.

rw

Remember (or look up) how long it took to turn the Dreyfus case around. And (within France) that was a real case of the (very, very) few against the many.

kenin

Elizabeth May huh….
remember that list I posted not to long ago? do any of you remember what it was at the top of that list? I believe it was Democracies and The Bar/Lawyers who were number 1.
I told you once and I’ll tell you again; all this garbage, all the spin, deception, media drivel and legal jargon has its origins in a Democratic system and within that system……. below or at the top……… there are lawyers!!!! Master manipulators.
Elizabeth May is a piece of garbage. She’s either incredibly naïve or directly connected to the spinning web of deception. She, like everybody else has a lot of nothing to say. That theatrical performance I commonly know as ”climate change” is about something else. Perhaps its about control or one of many steps to control by moulding the minds of those who are not part of the club. To me, its about land and without land….. man is a surf. So who was responsible for hiding the letters patent or the land patent grants from the general public and instead replaced it with a warranty deed? Guess what THE LAWYERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fyi: The role of a judge is to interpret the law, not make it or give it.
DON’T BE THEIRS TO CREATE.

Alan Robertson

Dost not the butcher’s trade keep thee busy enough, Dick?

there are lawyers!!!! Master manipulators

Downright good link to the influence of the trail attorneys association. You’d be blown out of the water if you knew the full expanse of their efforts. CO2 is the biggest cottage industry opportunity in the history of trial attorneys. Just wait till attainment levels are published and class actions lawsuits start rolling in.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trial-lawyer-industry-tries-to-buy-a-democratic-majority/article/2555105

co2islife

It is amazing how prophetic the Global Warming Documentary was. This clip highlights exactly your comment. The fraud is simply too obvious, problem is, the people perpetrating the fraud control the government and are the ones that could do something to stop it.
https://youtu.be/QowL2BiGK7o?t=1h4m36s

It is TOO obvious, isn’t it ….

kenin

Great link, thank you. Will share.

happy to have made a positive contribution … pushing the rock up the hill is always hard

kenin

Thanks for the article, more info…..more proof

Barbara

Elizabeth May is directly connected.

Barbara

Green Party Canada evolved from Greenpeace Canada.

Martin Hertzberg

It is tragic that what should have been an evaluation of the data by objective scientist degenerates into a partisan political diatribe. CO2 is not a pollutant but an essential ingredient in the Earth’s ecosystem.
The hearing would have been more effective if we had heard from a liberal Democrat who has properly concluded that the whole Anthropogenic global warming/climate change arguments are nothing but cherry-picked, anecdotal snippets. Any objective scientist analyzing the totality of the data must conclude that from Gore to Paris, the whole thing is a fraud…..a fraud is a fraud, is a fraud, is a fraud,…etc.
. Keep up the good work Tim, but let’s not let the perfect be the enemy of the good
Marty H..

I argue a lot on the local blogs and the believers almost always have just a few main points:
97% of scientists
Warmest year ever, or just look around (at melting snow, floods, droughts etc.
Oil company money.
These are where the debunking should concentrate.

So, craft counter soundbites. See my feeble efforts upthread. And get cracking.

Ask a group of scientists is the wall is white and 97% will fine some evidence of white pixelation.

jim December 19, 2015 at 3:13 pm
I argue a lot on the local blogs and the believers almost always have just a few main points:

Don’t know that John/Jane Public read “local blogs,” but they do read “Letters to the Editor.” Based on my local experience, your list and a handful of other points are indeed what keep coming up. A local assistant professor even claimed, “climate change models have withstood the rigors of tests and are credible.” One wonders which of the 100 or so he was referring to. Comments on WUWT and Climate Etc. provide a wealth of information for Letters to the Editor. Thanks to all.

Menicholas

They do not tolerate skeptical views on many Letters to the Editor boards.
Just try posting anything remotely skeptical on Scientific American to see what I mean.

Menicholas December 19, 2015 at 7:50 pm
They do not tolerate skeptical views on many Letters to the Editor boards.

The LA Times is the poster child for banning skeptical view. My bet is that there are other local papers in the La area that don’t have such policies. Many papers also limit each individual to 1 letter per month; so make your 1 letter per month count. I am fortunate that my local paper has no such policies and I have close to 100% of my letters published. Another point is stick to the science and facts; it is tempting to retaliate to the inevitable name-calling. It doesn’t hurt to remind the reader that those who resort to name-calling are in effect conceding that they have no legitimate argument. I am still looking for a tee shirt that says “I am the ‘fool who thinks he is smart’.”

rogerknights

“97% of scientists”
Who’ve been 97% wrong.
(Needed: An impartial, NSF-funded survey of how alarmed various groups of scientists are. Presumably it’ll find a much lower figure than 97% are in the “it’s dangerous” category, as did the only serious survey, the George Mason U. study of 2007.)

The quickest way to make someone angry is to be right.

Menicholas

That makes me REALLY angry to hear you say that!

Fred Harwood

I hear you.

Juan Slayton

For most people the proof that the Data presenters were political was their failure to answer the questions posed by Senator Markey and others about the 97% consensus and the warmest year on record. In fact, they could not answer them because they require a political answer explaining why they falsified the data and their motive? What answer would you give?
Not sure I can agree. I would say that they could not answer them because they were never asked. Senator Markey directed his questions to his own lapdog witness; the rules of the game were that witnesses could only respond to questions directed to them. Dr. Curry was able to speak because she had been personally attacked, and Mark Steyn was able to because…well, because he was Mark Steyn. Republican members of the committee should have thrown these issues to Dr. Happer and Dr. Christie for comment.
I have little doubt they could have given effective answers, both scientific and political. So long as they didn’t speculate on some senator’s canine ancestry.

Richard from Oz

Tim, you are quite correct the “Data” side was suborned into what was merely a political debate. I have watched the full debate, even here in Oz, and I listened to your debate on Canadian Radio. As a geoscientist I was appalled at the ignorance of the “Dogma” side of the debate. C.P. Snow recognised the problem years so many years ago in “The Two Cultures”. The gap between them is now even wider and what is worse, some on the science side have debased their principles in order to get along with the non-science side.
The lawyers and financiers with all the power in the western world just do not understand the scientific principles on which climate skeptics base their analyses.
I fail to see a solution to this schism in thought processes until Nature and the inexorable evolution of the Solar System provides one for us.

Menicholas

“I fail to see a solution to this schism in thought processes until Nature and the inexorable evolution of the Solar System provides one for us.”
So, we are to wait for Karma to run over the dogma?

noaaprogrammer

Ever since Climategate, I have presented it as a case study in ethics to my software engineering class. (The use of fudge factors in artificially raising and lowering temperature trends to show “global warming.”)
Something happened between this year’s crop of students and all previous years which gives me hope. This year, not one single student claimed to be aware of Climategate, hockey stick, CO2 is a poisonous gas, the artic ice is disappearing, and oceans are rising, etc. The only term they had heard was “global warming,” but none had any opinion on it one way or another. In previous years, most students were familiar with those terms and were aware of the debate between skeptics and believers.
Maybe skeptics should track trends in public knowledge concerning this issue to ascertain how to effectively engage the general public in this debate.

The 20 to 30 age bracket has moved beyond CAGW as a debate and wants to engage in how to support alternative energy. See recent Pew Research results.

Dorian

To Tim Ball:
You are either fooling yourself into trying to believe there is a difficult issue between appraising the public of the falseness of the AGW community, or just lying to protect your own culpable crimes. Your synopsis of what went in those climate hearings are truly slanted towards misrepresentation. Lets take some of your statements, statement 1:
“Even if they entertained the idea that “Their Paper” was wrong they were confronted with the question of whether the errors were from incompetence or corruption, something the presenters of “Your Paper” were not able or willing to answer.”
That statement shows either incompetence or corruption. If you’re not “able” to answer that means you don’t understand what you’re talking about, and that only means you shouldn’t even be their in the first place, furthermore, it means you are masquerading around as an expert in something you are not. As for “not willing to answer”, that is the classic answer that someone uses so as to protect their own culpability of crimes, in this case, scientific crimes, namely, FRAUD.
There are simple solutions here, where you sir, try to make every one believe that are instead complicated. Lies are easy to prove and disprove in science. We have what is called the Scientific Method, if it doesn’t stand to the test of the SM, then it is plain dogma, it shouldn’t be taken seriously. Especially when taxpayers money is concerned. For dogma winning tax dollars, is not research, it is FRAUD. The problem, sir, is that the Scientific Community has become corrupted with and over population of charlatans and scallywags. I noticed over the years as a referee, that the quality of scientific and engineering papers has noise dived. And the standards of said, referees has become deplorable. And lets not forget the collusion, where people pass each others papers, this has been going on for years. I remember one case where ONE Ph.D candidate used ONE set of results to get no less than NINE different papers from different journals. Did anyone care? No. In fact, it was applauded. I can go on and on, but would that do, nothing. For people like you, sir, only will seek to lie, hide, or find excuses.
The problem is that the scientific community has become corrupted. And that the peer review system, is irreparably broken. This malaise started largely in the 80’s, and has been progressively getting worse ever since.
Then you use the notion that things are too technical;
“…counter the myth that a majority of scientists (97%?) agree. It is too technical to present the arguments so well laid out in Lord Monckton’s analysis.”
What a load of rubbish. Try going through some of the greatest financial frauds that have occurred in our time, Enron, Worldcom, Tyco and Lehnman Brothers. In fact, the last one there, the forensic accountants are still punching the numbers to this day trying to get to the bottom of the financial abyss of reasons how that one worked exactly. You really think that a bunch of 2nd rate scientific morons, who started of with an idea of asking 10,000 scientists and then through stupid and bias reasons like, they were the only ones that actually published papers in global warming that fitted their distorted beliefs, thus whittling down the sample size to some 75 people that so very well selected to give a 97% support for their religion is too difficult to understand? What a load of rubbish. So your basically saying, if it is too difficult for the public, we should not introduce the rule of law? Mr. Ball, you sound more and more like someone who has something to hide himself. Are you a crook too? There is so much criminality already in science, where professors winning grants use tax payer money to buy personal toys and go on needless holidays, while research students suffer. I and many people reading this posting could name you very long lists of people who corrupt science through personal gain, but never do you see them go to prison.
Mr. Ball, you are looking, and I strongly believe, purposely, in the wrong direct. Science is corrupt, and until, THE NON SCIENTIFIC community demands to start putting the Scientific Community under the watchful eye of the fraud squads, we will have many more AGWs. When people like you who state, “[t]he price paid for even seeking the truth in climate science is financially and emotionally high, and few are willing to pay the price,” it only means, that you too are prepared to lie, cheat, and even steal to protect the thieves and corrupt individuals of science. What chance does the public have when even those like you so arrogantly place yourself in the position to claim that it is too difficult and hard to clean up science, while at the same time, benefit enormously. Dare I say, which backs are you scratching, and who are still scratching yours?
Mr. Ball, YOU ARE AN ARROGANT SNOB. You have no honour, and to write what you did in that letter of hypocrisy, above, is just an act of supreme confidence of a man who thinks he can say that, yes there are wrong doings going one, but you poor stupid people in the public will find it too difficult to understand why it is wrongful and even criminal, so don’t bother too much, we MORE intelligent scientific snobs will help you understand by making more dumb down films.
The problem here ladies and gentlemen, is that white-collar criminals protect each other. Judges, professors, politicians, and so on, rarely go to prison. Why? Because, try getting a crook, to say he is a crook, and then if by miracle you could, try getting that same crook, to punish themselves? And when that crook is a rotten cop, dirty judge, dishonest scientist, or slimy politician, who do you get to clean that up, when judges need cops, and scientists are professional witnesses and get paid really well for that, or when politicians pay all these other guys. Why is it that the criminality rate is so much lower in the white collar class than in the blue collar classes? Yes I know, the intellectual snobs will tell you that because the white collars have less need to commit crimes. Ok you geniuses, then answer this, why is it then that the recidivism rate between white collar and blue collar crimes is the same! Yeah, more white-collar snobbery, until we start treating white-collar crime with the same intent we do with blue-collar crime, scientists are going to keep on with their thieving ways. What do you say to that Dr. Timothy Ball, ex Professor.
For the record, I was born, no-collar (I come from peasantry), slogged my way through blue-collar, and eventually got educated to be a white-collar physicist. I have nothing against the white-collar class other than that they are doing a terrible job of managing this world and taking advantage of the blue-collars and lesser classes. My family and my people of which I derive myself from, have greatly suffered by the arrogant intellectual snobs of this world. We knew them by many names from where we come from, Communists, Fascists, the Gestapo, Americans, and British, call them what you like, my family and people have suffered greatly, and here I hear the same talk, the talk that things are too difficult, too complicated. This is the same talk that used just before, those who thought better than us peasants, decided to shoot or hang us, torture us, steal everything we had including our land and told us leave with nothing. This is what happens when you let the intellectual snobs of the world rule. And all I hear on this blog every single day….is just snobbery. Everybody knows what is really wrong with Science. When are we going to have an honest conversation about it!
In short, the community at large CAN NOT expect the Scientific Community to police itself. And asking something from that same community to give advice on what is problem of their corrupt community, is like going to Naples (that is Naples, Italy) in the good old days, and asking a Neapolitan if the Mafia existed.
Mr. Ball, I find your letter HIGHLY OFFENSIVE. As Hannah Arendt once said about the German people and their relationship to the evil Gestapo, in political and moral matters, obedience and support are the same. But to people like Mr. Ball, they conveniently have a dividing line. As a grandson I was once told by my grandfather, who was tortured by the Gestapo for days all because he escaped Dachau concentration camp, one of the few ever to do so, he said, after I asked him what he thought of the Germans, he said, “I have nothing against the German people, I think they’re amazing, especially considering what they have accomplished since the war, the problem is Doriano, of all the lies we were told, and those who knew better didn’t stand up to tell the truth, those people I will hate for eternity….I hate the cowards.”
This is from a man, who a few months later, escaped again from Dachau! But this time, walking only during the nights, he marched from Dachau during the winter of ’44, a bitter one it was, stealing what he could, and hiding during the days, and doing this for nearly two months and some several hundred kilometres of hostile German and Austrian territory,and then finally reaching Istria, the land of my people. After the war, once again, the intellectual snobs, Americans, British, Communists (aka Tito) decided for us peasants, and the result was we lost everything, and forced to leave Istria and start from nothing in Italia. And you know what my grandfather said, “once again, the intellectuals fucked us!”
All I ask, and my grandfather would ask, when will the intellectuals apply the same rule of law as they do to the peasants! Yeah when…
Riposa in Pace, Nonno.
Doriano

Menicholas

Um, I, think you, are way, off base. Sir.

Tom Anderson

“You cannot imagine how nasty people get until you experience it by challenging the prevailing wisdom.”
Here, Dr. Ball rests his case.

Off base…way off base.

Bob Ryan

Anger appears to have consumed reason with this post. I am surprised that it survived moderation.

Bob Ryan

To avoid any confusion I am referring to Dorian’s (3.35) comment and not to Dr Ball’s original post.

Edmonton Al

@Dorian… you would make prime candidate for the UN IPCC ie: an endless diatribe of meaningless BS. IMO

Everyone has a purpose in life and since it is no longer acceptable to lop off the heads of opponents, we need new tools to deal with them .. no ?

Barbara

Apparently this fellow knows very little about U.S. history and the family backgrounds of so many who made the country possible. Many did not come from peasant backgrounds but wanted a free people for which they were prepared to give their lives if needed.

Here is what the opposition posted on youtube about this hearing (3+ minutes long):

co2islife

That is pathetic. NASA and NOAA have well documented and adjustments, and satellite data is confirmed by balloon measurements. Nothing confirms ground measurements. Pure Alynski Blame Others Of What You Are Guilty.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/06/04/noaa-fiddles-with-climate-data-to-erase-the-15-year-global-warming-hiatus/
http://media.al.com/news_huntsville_impact/photo/john-christy-climate-change-chart-0a201a1637955761.jpg

Another excellent graphic.
What would be an alarmists reply to this one ?

co2islife

WUWT, would you ask Dr Christy and Spencer to write an article answering these claims about the errors and adjustments. Also Sen Cruz should have tied the no warming to the increase in CO2.

King of Cool

As mentioned on a previous thread, all Cruz had to do in retaliation was to say if the retired admiral preferred a graph over a longer time period, whether he could detect any pause on a 2000 year temperature record – based on credible proxies. Then produce such a graph and also ask him, as well as any pause, could he also see any trends remarkably similar to-day.
However Cruz, would have to be able to strongly defend the sources of the graph and respond to the expected counter attack by the admiral on its authenticity. To do this he would have to have a deep understanding of temperature proxies, tree rings, the Hockey Stick, Climategate, Medieval Warm period, Little Ice Age, IPCC initial reports, differences between Northern and Southern Hemisphere, satellite measurements etc.
Perhaps a lot to ask of a senator preparing to participate in the race to be the next president of the USA.
But there does seem to be quite a few excuses in the above piece. My thoughts on the hearing are that the Skeptic’s army went in a little unprepared and underestimated the Dogma Opposition and did not fully anticipate their attack. With the exception of Mark Steyn, there was also little passion in the presentation of the Skeptic’s points in convincing any objective jury of their case.
With a deeper knowledge of climate science I reckon Mark Steyn could have done it just as well on his own. And with some-one like Christopher Monckton alongside, he would have annihilated them.

RCS

“Climate Hustle” is the popular antidote to “An inconvenient truth”.
When, if ever, it is released it chould start to turn the tide. I’m told that is funny unlike Gore’s humorless dirge!

co2islife

This documentary also had a humorous bent to the global warming issue.
https://youtu.be/QowL2BiGK7o

Steve in SC

Markey also talked much louder than anyone else.

Bruce Cobb

And had that foam-at-the-mouth thing going.

Monroe

Last year Christy Clark won a majority government in BC. Two weeks before the election my wife attended a a meeting with other BC Liberals and asked Clark point blank to do away with BC’s “revenue neutral” carbon tax because it hurt rural people unfairly. She looked straight at my wife and said softly “We can’t do away with it because we need the revenue.”
Dogma and money go hand and hand.

Knute

Monroe
I assume you have no reason to lie on “your moment”.
Ms Clark caressed your wife with a moment of reality.

Conodo Mose

Dr Happer in the last minutes before Cruz summation of the hearing responded to and corrected Titley’s previous fairy tale-like explanation of how Titley believed a microwave sensing unit (MSU) operated (Titley attempted to show its not able to read temperature) to detect temperature at various elevations above ground. The MSU is the main temperature sensor device in the UAH satellite temperature record. Titley had more or less said there was much interpretation and software and uncertainty involved with the MSU’s detection of temperature from hundreds of miles away and added that the MSU satellite’s orbit was constantly eroding requiring more corrections (I am just recalling some of Titley’s comments from memory). Dr Happer skillfully countered Titley’s explanation of MSU by saying that the same infra-red technology is that used by reading your body temperature by your doctor by placing the IR unit on your forehead, in your ear or elsewhere and instantly getting a temperature reading remotely. Until Dr Happer correction of Titley’s MSU description, Titley appeared to carry the truth for the Democratic side, at least as truth is viewed by Sen. Merkey. Titley’s inaccurate description of the MSU then severely taints his other comments before the hearing as well as his other abilities as a PhD Meteorologist.

You cannot imagine how nasty people get until you experience it by challenging their prevailing wisdom. Dr. Curry learned as I did that the surprising and most emotionally disturbing attacks came from colleagues.

As Rothbard explained over and over, the State must have the support of the majority of the population or at least the resigned acceptance. The intellectuals have always supported the state and kept the populous believing in the state and its necessity — in return for money, prestige, and honors. (once it was almost all churchmen but now the “scientist” fulfills the task) When you fight the prevailing consensus you in effect fight against the established order. No small task. We see men and women marginalized for contrary views in climate “science”, but that is not the only place. Medical research is just as bad and other fields are also.
Since the entire edifice of man-made catastrophic global warming rests upon delusion and propaganda, it is impossible to win by mere logic and facts. I doubt even a mile of ice over New York City would phase the so-called climate “scientists”.

It’s going to take a revolt by the younger scientists to topple the “prevailing consensus.” See my comment above: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/19/the-recent-senate-climate-hearing-failed-because-it-continues-to-miss-the-point/comment-page-1/#comment-2102853 /Mr Lynn

LE
Thought provoking.
Young adults often respond to a perceived lie with an extreme backlash on the pendulum.
I think you are right, they will eventually be part of the backlash.

Jeremy

How are they going to do that when their funding and career depend on conformity?
Recall Dr Happer’s remark about needing a red team. Without such support, opposing views are silenced. Et voila: Consensus.

takes awhile, but at some point folks stop wearing izod shirts.

At some point we have to hope that integrity will start to trump conformity among young professional scientists. I suspect it’s happening now, but rather than confront the Powers-That-Be who control career opportunity, the rebellious just leave their fields and pursue other paths. To encourage confrontation, I have suggested a Foundation to help support rebels in Climatology and other fields, with grants, moral support, and even income. /Mr Lynn

FYI, I suggested the Foundation idea here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/26/climate-rationalization-beliefs-and-denialism/#comment-2056577
It occasioned a little positive comment. /Mr L

Still a good idea LE.
FU money makes a man more likely to be truthful.

David S

If a pharmaceutical company brings a product to market on fraudulently manipulated data they get charged with fraud. If people die from this fraud the directors should be charged with murder. The fraud here is at many levels and the corruption infiltrates all parts of society including the legal fraternity as evidenced by the white wash of climate gate. I think that once a high profile figure is jailed for these frauds I think the dominos can set in. There must be potential whistleblowers in bureaus or government and scientific agencies who can put together the smoking guns that will get the process going. Anthony’s recent article about the adjustments made to historic temperature data are clear indications of this systematic fraud is there and needs to lead to arrests.
I don’t blame warmists for getting their predictions wrong but I do feel cheated that they seem to be able to get away with manipulating the past.
You’re not wrong about the futility about arguing about the science. I think too many skeptics concede that CO2 causes global warming but not at the rates alarmists say. As a non scientific laymen I believe that if there is a causation between CO2 and global warming it is so diffused with other factors that there is correlation. We should never concede that CO 2 has any impact ( in a meaningful sense). If you concede that there is a relationship then it literally becomes an argument about degrees. Then in the publics eye it becomes a matter of opinion who to believe.
Highlighting the systematic fraud and bullying which is the hallmark of the AGW movement is the only way the public will listen. I know that in the end the person in jail on fraud charges is probably not going to be the one that the public will believe.

observa

Simply put if the CAGW theorists are wrong with their leap of faith from the lab to a complex global climate system then time is on our side, particularly as we mark 2015 as the year a generation reached adulthood experiencing no measurable global warming in their lifetime. Problem number two for the shifting goalposts of these global warming cum climate change cum extreme weather soothsayers is as Walter Russell Mead pointed out, it’s all very well being noisy Green alarm clocks but then it boils down to the efficacy of their prescriptions and it’s here they’re found particularly wanting.
What’s their prescriptions at their perpetual gabfests? Whatever percentage of CO2 reductions by whenever we can manage it and essentially that means more of their windmills and solar panels as CO2 sequestration and alternative geothermal, tidal generation have insurmountable hurdles on any scale. Apart from pumping water uphill and storing calories mankind’s history of storing energy is somewhat pitiful and any rational look at chemical battery storage would conclude there’s no salvation there for their pet windmills and solar panels so where does that leave them having ruled out nuclear power generation?
It leaves them facing Lomborg’s inevitable conclusion that’s where it leaves them, although they’re hanging by their last flimsy thread of rational scientific credibility that technological advance/breakthrough will make us all see their ultimate Nirvana with wind and solar in particular. Not to worry because technological advance will make solar more efficient than it currently is at collecting a sixth or seventh of the sun’s energy at present. Que? All that some 100% theoretical maximum sun’s energy collectivity would achieve, is 6 or 7 times variability from the zero at night they have now and it wouldn’t matter if the panels were free to produce if they can’t store the energy. Well it’s like this noisy Green alarm clocks. I’m still starting my car with essentially the same lead acid battery Henry was plonking in the Model T and I don’t notice any solar car for sale like they drive from Darwin to my home town Adelaide in the Solar Challenge so you work it out.

Robert

Thanks Dr. Ball. I’m afraid we will never get off this merry-go-round until there is a distinct and significant cooling trend in the climate. No matter what science is presented there’s always another “study” to counter it. The only thing that may convince believer’s is an actual cooling climate. Until then, this battle will continue forever, no matter how compelling the science of the skeptical side is.

History points to paths of least resistance when it comes to group behavior.
Perhaps the path to victory for skeptics is :
1. The cooling will come
2. Until such time, SLOW THEM DOWN and be resolute concerning the preservation of the scientific method .. it will be need to be championed to survive the donkey turd trend of decision making
3. The unintended consequence of this battle is scientists/engineers learn how to communicate risk management better
4. You are small, they are large. Pick tactics that the small use to fight the large. Full frontal attacks don’t work against a larger opponent. Slowing down the opposition while they develop a sense of arrogance will create opportunities for attack.
5. Learn to use the requirements the authorities use to qualify science to your favor. Anthony’s most recent work is an example of how to maximize that tactic.
And above all, Dr Ball raises the seminal tactic that skeptics need to stick at the heart of the matter concerning CAGW. Counter sound bites with better sound bites. Possible example …
“Oh yeah, the warmest year EVER. I’m melting. That’s nonsense. The Romans conquered the world during a warmer period. Civilization peaked.”
“Well why do they claim it is the warmest”
“Because they want to scare and control you so that you’ll give them your freedom and money. Why would they tell you it is warmer now when the FACT is that it was warmer back during the time of Jesus” ?
“Are they lying when they tell us the temp ?”
“Some people are adept at bullying others and the bullies are creating a system that tells lies”
Just a few thoughts from hillbilly world.

graphicconception

I agree that the panel could have said more but that was not all their fault.
The whole event was obviously stage-managed. Most of the politicians just read out their pre-prepared speeches. The scientists were really just window dressing who had been flown in to add some credibility to the proceedings.
The other problem is that the scientists tend to not only play by the rules but also assume that “truth will persuade”. Steyn was less inclined to stick to the rules so he managed to score some points.
To pick up on Markey’s 97% problem would have taken some preparation by Cruz and the panel. He could have asked them whether the 97% was correct or not. I always challenge any 97% quotes. I start by asking which paper they believe. if they do not know I go through a list:
Doran and Zimmerman 2009 – based on 77 scientists;
Cook et al 2013 – 0.3% of papers said man mainly responsible – no scientists asked anything;
Anderegg et al 2010 – Challenge the lists, the scoring and the population comparison technique.
Oreskes et al 2004 – Peiser’s re-run of the data showed that only 13 out of 1117 actually endorsed the consensus.
Only the Doran and Zimmerman paper was a survey of scientists.
The real takeaway is if these papers are so easy to find holes in how many other climate papers also have holes because some have climate scientists’ names attached.
Markey’s reliance on the science institutions should have been undermined because the panel members were also members of said institutions. Also, how many polled their members? As Curry started to say, AMS had a poll that came out 52:48 – hardly 97%.

A different sound bite attack on 97%. Please refine, polish, and offer up to our ragtag global guerilla army of skeptics. We could surely use that sound bite ammunition.

The ragtag skeptics groups organically develops its “comebacks”. WUWT should consider an IM system of communication. It would force a more succinct back and forth of messaging. I see it in fits and starts thru the posting, but it losses the continuity of exchange. The word giants exist here. They just need to be unleashed.

Climate Heretic

I watched the Cruz senate hearing and I came away with exactly the same thoughts that graphicconception verbally illustrates. No one offers any rebuttal to the 97% consensus statements that were made. On that point alone the hearing was a failure.
Regards
Climate Heretic

Menicholas

“The real takeaway is if these papers are so easy to find holes in how many other climate papers also have holes because some have climate scientists’ names attached.”
Unfortunately, I have to disagree.
The real takeaway is that, even though your list shows that the 97% meme is patently and transparently false, it is still being repeated to this day and ad nauseum, by everyone from the President of the United States and knucklehead who lives across the street, to the legion of tireless blog trolls who haunt the interwebs.
Like many aspects of CAGW, it is literally a blatant lie that refuses to die.
A zombie fact.

markl

Thank you although it’s depressing. Our voice today is not going to be heard on matters of science….that much is true. However reality is poking through the dark clouds and the impending failure of renewables to take over from fossil fuels will win in the end because what we do have is time. The longer their scare tactics fail to pan out the more people will distrust them. You may be able to declare CO2 a pollutant but you can’t dictate that wind and solar replace fossil fuels worldwide overnight, or in a decade, or even a century. We’re addicted to what fossil fuels provide and until that can be matched they’re spitting into the wind.

rogerknights

“the impending failure of renewables to take over from fossil fuels will win in the end because what we do have is time.”
I think so. In five years I project:
Temps will be flat (most likely) or insignificantly warmer or cooler (95% certainty).
Electrical costs will have doubled.
Cars will be flimsier and more dangerous, due to their new higher MPG requirements.
Our economy will be suffering.
Our example will not have inspired others to follow in our failed footprints.
Developing world coal plants will be kicking in and CO2 will continue rising.
The impracticality of large-scale use of renewables will become plainly evident in Europe.
Some poorer European countries will start reneging on their commitments.
The status of warmists will have changed from doughty underdogs to snotty overlords, which will win them less public sympathy.
There will be defections of some prominent warmists. The percentage of the consensus will shrink.

n.n

At best, the believers have a stake in environmental stability, which is why most support selective-child rites (and a subset support clinical cannibalism by Planned Parenthood et al) under the quasi-religious pro-choice doctrine, and redistributive change schemes at progressive levels of reduced liability (e.g. federal vs state, labor and capital debasement), including those justified by the prophecy of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming. They create an illusion of operating within a scientific frame of reference, and maintain a pretense of a moral or religious orientations, while exceeding, often wildly, the first, and selectively or deceptively upholding the last.

pat

Christopher Booker is able to get his message through:
19 Dec: UK Telegraph: Christopher Booker: The Paris climate fiasco leaves UK alone in the dark
Finally, ultra-greens and climate sceptics agree on something; that the climate conference was a scam
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/12060003/The-Paris-climate-fiasco-leaves-UK-alone-in-the-dark.html

Athelstan.

“What we’ve got here is failure to communicate……….Some men you just can’t reach. So you get what we had here last week”….
It can’t be talked out, it needs real action to coerce people to think again, brainwashing its deactivation takes time.
It’s difficult to defenestrate an unknown known and nebulous shape shifter.
It used to be ‘original sin’ but all thanks to the Ivy league and its devotion to all the precepts of the Frankfurt School and Soros, Billary its next incarnation [by incantation?]. Thus, with Christianity been buried long ago.
But they had to move on from the idea of original sin and onto something else, it had to be invented, a perfect political myth, a vehicle for strapping the taxpayers and oh glory and mother Gaia! – an existential threat to boot. In came, this ‘man made warming’ thing but now……..its gone in way too deep.
It needs expiation and a systematic purge, a Republican candidate who doesn’t drink at the font of cool aid – the only way to wind it in, is to totally defund it and stop indoctrination of school children: for a Republican to get himself elected president and it’s way past time for that.
Then, we could start the renaissance and the offensive in earnest: back to reality, back to pure science.

To me the real fight, is the fight against “experts”. Until this paradigm of trusting people with “better education” is reversed and people are empowered once more to think for themselves the subtle push to technocracy will continue, with climate science just the pointy end of a very large stick.
My formal education effectively ended at 16 and I work a simple job, but I never go into debates with the opening line of “I’m not a scientist”. I take the Richard Feynmann definition of the question: “science is the belief in the incompetence of experts”. By this definition I am one of the greatest practitioners of science on the planet!!
I go further when I debate any scientist on this issue by saying that my opponent is either blind, stupid or corrupt and that our debate is simply to determine which catagory they fall under!
It’s time to take off the gloves and stop being Mr nice guy. This is the REAL error of skeptics.

but I never go into debates with the opening line of “I’m not a scientist”.

Excuse me for bursting a few bubbles, but if you call yourself an expert in something and don’t have the ability to explain the expertise to the common man, then perhaps you don’t know your stuff as well as you think you do.
Most people are smarter than they are given credit for being, and
Most smart people aren’t as smart as they think they are.

Menicholas

But some are.

“But some are”
Indeed, the nugget of impact. Forums like WUWT allow thousands of eyes to both contribute and read a variety of povs. They tend to flush out weak debate and promote a stronger line.
I know many expert welders, but have only met one master (RIP). He was able to teach a variety of personalities because he focused on understanding their frame of mind, rather than force feeding his expertise.
97%, hottest evah, CO2 forcing, species armageddon, solar, wind and puppies tails are all poor welds practiced over and over. The master is the person who listens, identifies and engages why they hold onto that poor weld before trying to explain how to perform excellence.

Steve Case

B I N G O !
When they ask me my education credentials, I tell them, ” I successfully graduated from Mrs. McGraw’s 8th grade, took personal typing along the way and am self taught in Excel. I may have more educations than that but it’s all I need to to refute most of what passes for climate science.”

rogerknights

Check out Brian Martin’s booklet (free online somewhere I think), Strip the Experts (1991). It’s a Rules for Radicals for our side.

From the link ….
“Every group criticises experts on the other side but is happy with its own experts. Perhaps it’s time to encourage people to think for themselves rather than always trusting someone else. ”
Captain Obvious, I agree … do you have a nice little you tube link for “debating an expert” ?

At some level the Court , to be an honest Court , cannot plead ignorance of basic physics .

BA, by constitutional charter, they sure can. They resolve matters of law, not matters of ‘fact’. Including physics facts.

To be fair, when science was less ripe with corruption, the courts had an easier time of applying daubert factors. The relatively recent downward spiral of scientific independence has throw many a court for a loop.

Who says ?

vlparker

It seems to me that the majority of the public are uninterested in climate change. They consider it a minor issue at best. The left, however, controls the media and they will not let it die. The issue to them, or at least to many of them, isn’t whether there is any truth to climate change.caused by human activity. To them it is all about a vast transfer of wealth. It is totally about politics, not science. If God himself were to appear and say that humans had nothing to do with climate change they would claim that God was wrong.

If God did that, the Pope would send him to a safe space to think it over.
He would tell him “think of the children”.

Tai He Chen

Rationality or fear. The choice is yours.

Dr Ball
Thanks for linking to the full interview with Ms May. Top notch stuff and gives me great insight concerning successful tactics. It was also very interesting to see the style of diversion and immediate disintegration into irrelevant minutia when I read the comments to the interview.
I think your onto something good concerning tactics.
Again, thanks for your relentless work.

rw

Again, thanks for your relentless work.

Seconded. And never underestimate the importance of being persistent. (Just ask Lenin.)