Guest Post by Bob Tisdale
I’ve been mentioning my new book in blog posts and comments for well over a year. I’ve finished Part 1, which makes up the majority of it. The best news: IT’S FREE. Click here for a copy (25 MB .pdf).
On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1 includes introductory discussions of 3 primary topics:
- the science behind the groupthink of human-induced global warming and climate change,
- climate models, and
- even more importantly, many of the numerous known modes of natural variability.
Those fundamental presentations are in layperson terms, with links to more-detailed discussions and peer-reviewed papers.
When you first download the ebook, you’ll note it’s over 700 pages long. Some of you are going to say to yourselves, I’ll never read a 700-page book about global warming and climate change. I’m not expecting that everyone will. The next thing you might note is that the interactive Table of Contents lists more than 60 chapters.
Those of you who are new to global warming and climate change might want to start with:
- Chapter 1.2 – What is Global Warming?
- Chapter 1.5 – What is Climate Change?
Simply click on the titles of those chapters in the Table of Contents, and Adobe Acrobat Reader will fast-forward you there.
Since they’re in the news, others of you might be interested in El Niño events, and are wondering about the processes behind them. Simply click on Chapter 3.7 – Ocean Mode: El Niño and La Niña.
The Introduction covers a multitude of topics, from the slowdown in global warming to examples of very basic climate model failings; from the political, not scientific, nature of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to global warming ranking low on peoples’ priorities around the globe.
You’ll also note there are 3 General Discussions that lie between the primary sections. They include:
- Weather Events and Weather-Related Losses Are Not Getting Worse…And the Thirteen Graphs That Helped Launch a Congressional Investigation
- On the Claims of Record-High Global Surface Temperatures in 2014
- On the Reported Record-High Global Surface Temperatures in 2015 – And Will Those Claims Continue in 2016?
As opposed to looking at On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1 as a 700+ page book, you might want to consider it as collection of 60+ articles. Many of the chapters cover topics I’ve never discussed before at my blog ClimateObservations or at WattsUpWithThat. And for those that I have discussed, a vast number are newly written. If you were to read one chapter per day, you’d finish in a little more than 2 months.
You’ll note on the cover that this is an “Advance Pre-Edit Copy” of On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1. That is, I have not asked others to proofread it. And while I’ve read it front to back numerous times and had MS Word spellcheck it, there still might be a few typos. Please feel free to note any typos in comments for this book at my blog, and, if need be, I’ll publish a group-proofread edition in a few months. (Note: I have an especially hard time finding typos in the title blocks of the illustrations.)
Why am I giving away a 700+ page book that took me almost 2 years to write? The primary reason: Free, it should have a much-greater circulation. There are many persons interested in the skeptical aspects of global warming and climate change who simply can’t afford to buy books, especially with the holidays approaching. Another reason: This is my way of saying thanks to everyone who has offered constructive comments on the threads of my blog posts at WattsUpWithThat and at my blog ClimateObservations. This book could not have been written without your insights. Of course, I’m also hoping that many readers will find the two links to my tip jar that are found in the text.
Part 2 is about climate-related data. The first draft has already been written. Unfortunately, with all of the changes to datasets this year, it will take many months to rewrite it. I’ll try to publish On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 2 in 2016.
Sorry, I do not plan a version for Kindle readers, but many of you with Kindle readers are aware of software that converts .pdf documents to .mobi files. Please let others know which conversion software has worked best for you. Also, I have no plans for a printed edition. That would defeat the one of the benefits of an ebook: hyperlinks. And there are so many hyperlinks in the text that I wouldn’t even try to count them.
After you’ve read a bit, please use social media to share On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1. Here’s the short link to this post at my blog:
Or if you’d prefer, the here’s short link to this post at WattsUpWithThat:
Last, here’s the http address for the book itself:
Thanks for taking the time from your busy days to read On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1.
Cheers.
Outstanding!
Thank You, Bob.
TonyL and everyone else who have offered kind words on this thread, thank you.
Enjoy.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH to those who have provided contributions/tips/donations.
I’m running a bit behind in my emailed thank yous, but I’m working on them.
Again, thank you.
Be sure to send your link to Kevin Trenberth, Bob.
And, not that I’m suggesting it, mind you, but wouldn’t it be tragic if various alarmist sites got commented with Bob’s link. Horrors! What an offense!
Yes, thank you, Bob. So much good and generous work.
Thank you very much. If this book is as informative as your articles in WUWT, it should be great.
Wow, even before I opened the thread I was looking for my PayPal info to purchase this.
Thank you, Bob, for this.
Please save me some time looking things up. I want to buy the earlier book.
Be forewarned, I may ask about changes. Since I change things, including opinions, I figure others do too. If changes are based on added data or better explanations I defend them.
facts do not matter to the environmental lying movement. so maybe we should lie better than these twits. if we abandon all fossil fuels we will then inundated by werewolves. keep saying it over and over until the twits in govt. and media start to believe it. and they will. of course the price of silver bullets will sky rocket, so deniers out there start buying as much silver as you can. then with more money we can than out shout the liars with the facts.
Is there anyway you could release an epub version?
Pdfs don’t really work too well on mobile devices or ereaders since the fixed layout makes the text too small…
PDF to ePub converter:
Please try to help yourself, first.
For those unsure, CNET is a trusted download site, one of the most reliable on the internet. It is a valuable source for software distribution.
This one is free to try.
http://download.cnet.com/PDF-to-ePub-Converter/3000-20412_4-75115614.html
CNET is not a trusted download site:
http://www.howtogeek.com/207692/yes-every-freeware-download-site-is-serving-crapware-heres-the-proof/
and
http://www.howtogeek.com/198622/heres-what-happens-when-you-install-the-top-10-download.com-apps/
The best program to convert pdf to anything else (epub, mobi, etc) is Calibre:
http://calibre-ebook.com/
But if you do not want to install anything, just google “convert pdf to epub online”:
https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=convert+pdf+to+epub+online
Conversion from pdf to ePub can be a nightmare, especially if there are lots of images, chapters and hyper links. Average cost of a conversion from India for such a complex book is about $500 and takes several weeks. And even then you have to spend a month ironing out their numerous errors. It is not a straightforward translation.
Yeah, I’ve tried them all in the past but it’s impossible too get the text to reflow properly.
I just sent an email to the admins of this site about this post…But yeah, CNET is a software download site that wraps other software in adware…I think what we’re witnessing is one of CNET’s bots in action…
TonyL’s post needs to be removed.
And anyone else reading this for pdf to epub (or any reflowable format) tips, believe me, there is no such thing since adobe has made it impossible to do no thanks to their proprietary hyper over-coding practices.
Dog, do you have a link to a website that you prefer for epub books?
Sure do!
https://archive.org/
http://www.gutenberg.org/wiki/Main_Page
https://en.wikibooks.org/wiki/Main_Page
Fyi,
For making/editing epubs I use Sigil:
http://sigil-ebook.com/
And then there’s this excellent resource on all things epub:
http://epubzone.org/epub-3-overview
Thank you, looking forward to the read.
Cause I’m a cheap sum-bitch… this will be my Holiday present to those who believe that their Prius in a coal-fired area is saving the planet.
Great idea MarkY. Think I will too. Thanks.
I love it !!! Kind of like putting COAL in their Christmas stocking !! Thanks for the idea ….
I meant lump of coal !!
Will part 2 be written for laypeople as well?! Climate models offer a unique opportunity to learn about scientific modeling, more generally.
Chris Reeve, Part 2, as it exists, is very basic but I’ll try to make it as basic as I can.
Cheers
That’s the mark of a good scientists.
One should be able to explain matters so that a school child can understand the principles involved, and at least the general working of what is proposed and the reasons behind the proposal and its link to supporting data..
Bob,
Thank you for this enormous generosity. I look forward to reading what you’ve written.
Bob, thank you!
Bob, can’t thank you enough for what you’ve taught me so far.
Would like to buy you and yours dinner and drinks if you all happen to be in St. Louis. (Contact me at my login email address to redeem this coupon.)
Bob…and gentleman….and a scholar
Bob , do you mind if I put the link on my Facebook page ?? ……I like to drive my liberal family members crazy !!!
And YouTube comments ??
Marcuso8, please link it anywhere and everywhere you like.
Thank you.
Much appreciated. Great read so far , I may not go to sleep tonight !! LOL…Thanks, I think.
Is it okay if I point out spelling and grammar errors too or is that pushing my luck ??
” making our world a better place for people four generations in the future ” for or into ??
Marcuso8, please leave comments about typos etc. on the thread of the cross post at my blog:
https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2015/11/03/new-book-on-global-warming-and-the-illusion-of-control-part-1/
I welcome them.
Thanks
Thanks for all your great work, but please consider reaching out for creative design assistance from your readers. The cover does not do it justice. The insight is 21st century but the graphics are 1970’s.
cover graphics
Dear Mr. Tisdale:
I always appreciate receiving a book as a gift. I thank you, and look forward to reading it.
Yr Mst Hmbl & Obdnt Svt
Walter
I read most of 485 pages of a book titled:
“Fateful Choices, ten decisions that changed the world 1940-1941.”
It referenced the usual suspects;
Hitler, Churchill, Roosevelt, Stalin, Mussolini and Tojo.
The author also included pages 485-596 which were called “Forethoughts” and appear to list all the quotes included in the book with the source.
Then the index ran pages 597-623.
The author was Ian Kershaw.
Thank you Bob. Will start reading when I get back to a computer. It will make sitting in front of the fire in the evenings interesting.
Thank You Bob.
Bob, thank you so much! I regard this an an important and insightful addition to my collection and I very much appreciate the time and effort you have put into it.
I used Pay Pal to give you a cheap donation ( I’m poor, sorry )….Will this donation qualify me as a Big Oil donor ???? LOL
Thank you, Marcuso8.
Thanks, Bob Tisdale. Your excellent gift is much appreciated. I will publish links to “On Global Warming and the Illusion of Control – Part 1” in my climate and meteorology pages, and leave a contribution in your tip jar.
Andres, thank you for the links and the contribution.
Cheers.
page 446-451… Tri-cellular model 1856… Slightly before satellites…
http://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/wv1!_satellit_goes15/satellit_goes15.html?nn=16102
On the link provided,
The air mass that is now off the coast of Baja California was on November first off the coast of British Columbia! So much for Polar, Ferrell and Hadley cells…
Thanks so much for sharing this with all of us!
Can someone please send a copy to Bill Gates?
Bob,
Thanks for this. I have “Who Turned on The Heat” so looking forward to reading this one. I have your books on Kindle for IPad….
That’s my Father’s Christmas present sorted then.
And it’s cost effective too.
Matt:
I now anticipate still being here then so there is no need to be a cheapskate. I’ll take two copies: one for reference and another to give to a politician of my choice.
Dad
downloaded, and be sure that even that i am not a scientific person that i may ask logical questions or look at it with an open logical mind. just as in the matter of the deep oceans where i commented that all those zetajoules just gave 0.02 degrees of warming.
really i appreciate your work, your clear articles and your dedication to give very clear and understandeable info about climate change, the hows and the why’s!
so i will for sure post feedback and questions and will try to see if i can add some revelant logic dot connections in forms of questions
thanks a zillion times
Great work Bob. I have just downloaded a copy and will have a good read
Thanks Bob! I expect it will be as good and thorough as your other work.
For those who may be interested, this other Bob T. book was outstanding, and is a timely read right now.
https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/everything-you-every-wanted-to-know-about-el-nino-and-la-nina-2/
Regards Ed
Bob, what about the blob?
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.anom.gif
ossqss, It’s disappearing/dissipating at the surface. Unfortunately, The Blob still appears in the GODAS T300 (subsurface temperatures to 300 meters) anomalies:
Unless that disappears as well, The Blob could re-emerge.
Cheers
Have we ever observed the devolution of an anomaly like the blob? It currently appears to be weaker (less warm) at depth when compared to your August update.
Regards, Ed
I surf in the blob. it’s November, no gloves needed yet.
Bob,
I have read the Introduction and am very impressed. I look forward to reading the rest of the book.
However, I will again raise one issue with you, regarding “data”. Data, in the case of temperature, are readings taken from instruments. Once these data are “adjusted”, they cease to be data and become merely estimates of what the data might have been, had they been collected timely from properly selected, calibrated, sited, installed and maintained instruments. Data are immutable. Estimated temperatures, on the other hand, are mutable; and, have been mutated (mutilated?) multiple times, as you point out.
Referring to the sets of estimated temperatures used to produce the various near-surface temperature anomaly products as “data sets” grants them credibility they do not deserve. Regrettably, however, it does support the narrative pursued by the producers of the temperature anomaly records.
@firetoice2014
Agree, it should be great to know whether we are looking at “Original data” or “Adjusted data”. And if adjusted: for what and by whom. Adjusted for the Urban Heat Island effect or for “homogenisation” or other things? That all makes a big difference.
My main criticism of the book:
TL;DR
So you’re an engineer who can’t spend an hour reading anything…Superb excuse for not reading anything. I have full faith in your engineering abilities and I have my money on you for saving mankind if and when the time becomes nigh.
I look forward to reading it. There was great information in your book on El Nino.
OK, now for something really basic – I’ve downloaded the file (and donated) and converted it to a mobi file (>twice the size) but I’ve just realised, I don’t know how to get this on to my Kindle, other than as an email attachment (not very clever at 56MB).
Sorry if it’s a stupid question, but has anybody any ideas, please?
an
PDFs are encoded using proprietary magic code which makes them nearly impossible to convert to a format that you can read on any device.
The only 2 options is to rewrite the entire book into a universal format or for him to release into a universal format such as html…Any book can be converted into any format if it’s all in html.
Thanks, Dog. Perhaps I misunderstood the suggestion to convert to .mobi. I’ll see what the Kindle community has to say and if I get anything useful, I’ll report. meanwhile, thanks again.
Ian
Ian, the transfer of .mobi files to a Kindle Reader appears to be straightforward:
http://fhautism.com/how-do-i-transfer-the-mobi-file-to-kindle.html
Hi again,
The link works. Many thanks for taking the trouble to put me on the right road and also provide a useful link for future reference.
Ian
fascinating,
the science behind the
groupthink of human-induced
global warming and climate
change,
so much we had to learn about our own selves we already should know.
Thx – Hans
Bob, read already the intro, and for the discussion portion of extreme weather, it should be interesting to see for the NHC reanalysis of hurricane Joaquinn.
this for the following reason: If the reanalysis keeps it at category 4 strength; then the atlanti evens faces the longest time stretch without category 5 hurricane since reliable category 5 hurricane strength records begun in 1924. a record “drought” that is also kept quiet.
If NOAA would reanalyse Joaquin as a short lived category 5 hurricane, then it would be just a few days shy of that record.
former record between hurricane Allen 1980 August 9 and hurricane Gilbert 1988 September 13
source: the list of category 5 atlantic hurricanes on wikipedia
list on wikipedia
it’s a few weeks ago that i realized this by reading that list. so next to major hurricane landfall drought there’s also a category 5 drought that is persistent.
Of course as i see you refer a lot to part 2 maybe this is something that adds better to your part 2.
This is however kept so quiet that nobody even noticed it.
Thank you, Bob. I’m really looking forward to getting stuck into it. Will share far and wide.
Best wishes.
Read intro and conclusions so far. Looking forward to reading the details soon. Great work as usual Bob,
Reading it on an iPhone at times, I didn’t notice a way to quickly flip from say the conclusion, back to the table of contents. Perhaps someone could point out a method to go to a specific page, when you are inside the manuscript.
Or, perhaps you could include an iPhone method to navigate back to the Table of Contents, without finger scrolling through hundreds of pages.
If I can get back to the table of contents quickly, then access to any section is an easy jump,
Any tips on how to navigate back to the TOC, or to other sections are welcome,
Pdfs have a fixed one-page toc, which are not always referenced correctly…which is part of the reason I’m stressing the author of this book convert it to epub so that we can take notes, read it on any device, and in general, make it readable to the widest audience.
Ben, Adobe Reader on a PC includes a small window on the task bar to indicate the document page. On a PC, you can input the desired page number there to skip to that page. Can you do that on an iPhone? If so, the page number for the TOC should be 3.
Okay – Opened it in the Books app and there are multiple tools to use, to navigate the book. Live and learn. Well done Bob. Thank you.
At the risk of looking silly, in the figures on page 17 from Climate Explorer there is white where there is a large US population. Is the white essentially 0 trend and grey not sufficient data?
Hi Robert B. Grey on the maps on page 17 mean the trends are very low, between -0.02 deg C/decade and +0.02 deg C/decade. White indicates the trends are statistically insignificant…less than 70% significance.
BTW, the GISS data are for the most part spatially complete. For an example, see the recent map from the GISS map-making webpage…
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
…of monthly data:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=6&type=anoms&mean_gen=09&year1=2015&year2=2015&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
On that map, grey indicates areas with no data.
Thanks. I was thinking that but found it strange that with the landscape peppered with stations that you can’t get an estimate of the trend. Doesn’t it suggest that unless the station density is much higher for the whole globe that you haven’t got the slightest idea of how the global temperature is changing?
eg. look at Namimbia http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=6&type=anoms&mean_gen=09&year1=2015&year2=2015&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=rob
Robert B: The lack of a statistically significant trend in those regions relates to the trend versus the standard deviation of the data.
Understood, but it appears the probability that the trend will be significant is inversely proportional to the density of stations. If you only have one station, there is not much of a standard deviation rather than a significant trend. I have a problem with the definition of what is significant. I know most of that area in Aus has 200km between stations. If there were a dozen more in between, would it still come out to be significant?
I should look at exactly what was done. I just thought others might be interested in looking into it.
Thanks a bunch, Bob! Fantastic generous of you to offer such an informative, easy-to-read/-understand book on the “most serious threat to the World” (according Kerry/Nobama).
I’m spreading these good news around here in Sweden.
Bragds/TJ
Thank you for the gift.