The Week That Was: 2015-09-19 (September 19, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
RICO: For years, some advocates of the position that human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are causing unprecedented and dangerous global warming have also falsely claimed that the science is settled. Included in these claims are highly questionable claims that 97% of the scientists concur with this view. Now, twenty climate scientists have written to the President and the US Attorney General requesting legal prosecution of those who publically disagree with their views. The legal actions they are proposing fall under Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, known as RICO. The act was designed to combat organized crime and makes a person who instructs criminal action taken by others guilty of the crime. In short, the individuals who wrote the letter are stating that anyone who does not agree with their views is guilty of a crime – racketeering.
This action is a clear display of the illogical thinking by some of those in the largely, publically-financed Climate Establishment whose vanity exceeds the rigor of their work. Rather than producing compelling physical evidence that human emissions of CO2 are causing dangerous global warming, they will compel others to publically think as they do by legal action. In effect, they are undermining their own position and their action illustrates that simply because some people trained as scientists believe X that does not make belief in X scientific.
The evidence these individuals cite demonstrates their lack of critical thinking. For example, they cite the Merchants of Doubt, a book with extensive accusations against four distinguished scientists, but little documented evidence. The authors present no documented evidence that those accused took money from tobacco companies in exchange for suppressing evidence that cigarette smoking causes lung cancer.
This lack of evidence by the authors, Oreskes and Conway, who claim to be historians of science, can be easily seen in other imaginative claims, such as everyone was aware of the economic weakness of the Soviet Union long before it fell. The authors fail to note a major controversy in US economics profession during the 60s, 70s, and 80s was the economic strength of the Soviet Union.
Nobel Laurate Paul Samuelson, author of the highly influential textbook, Economics, later joined by William Nordhaus, argued that the military and space accomplishments of the Soviet Union were compelling evidence that the Soviet economy was comparable to that of the United States, and an example of the success of a centrally planned economy. Others disagreed, claiming that the Soviet military was strong, but the economy was weak. To maintain a strong military, the Soviet Union required far greater government spending in relation to the gross national product than the US. President Reagan accepted the second position, and sought to build up the US military to confront the economic weakness of the Soviet Union, which would try to match it. The issue was not the military strength, but the economic strength to maintain a strong military.
In Merchants of Doubt, Oreskes and Conway distort the issue, falsely claiming that three of the four scientists accused in the book exaggerated the military strength of the Soviet Union, which was not the issue at all. A simple check of the economics textbooks of the period show Oreskes and Conway misrepresent the issue.
The absurdity of the RICO accusations by the 20 individuals with scientific training (the 20) is increased by their citing political support by Sheldon Whitehouse, a senator from Rhode Island. Rhode Island and the Providence Plantations was founded by Roger Williams, who left England for the Massachusetts Bay Colony to seek religious freedom. Massachusetts, the “American Experiment” was considered to be founded on the idea of religious freedom. However, Williams was tried for his independent thinking in Salem, Massachusetts, and was banished. Apparently, Senator Whitehouse wishes to continue the concept of “freedom of thought for me, but not for thee.” http://www.americaslibrary.gov/jb/colonial/jb_colonial_williams_1.html
Last week, TWTW quoted Freeman Dyson stating global climate models used by the Climate Establishment are full of “fudge factors” that adjust to whatever data is feed into them. As the data changes the fudge factors change, but that does not give the models predictive power, skill. Dyson has other significant criticisms of the models and of the Climate Establishment. Are “the 20” proposing prosecuting this eminent, 91 year-old theoretical physicist for racketeering because he dares to think differently than they do? See links under Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt and Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back.
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Quote of the Week: “The worthwhile problems are the ones you can really solve or help solve, the ones you can really contribute something to.” Richard Feynman
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Number of the Week: 23
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The Sun: Increasingly we are seeing more papers asserting that the sun is a major factor in climate change. Yet, in its Summaries for Policy Makers, the government-funded, UN, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) largely dismisses it as an important influence on recent climate global warming/climate change. The total energy emitted by the sun drives the climate systems in the solar system, including the earth. Yet, according to the IPCC, and the group of 20 (above) minor changes in total energy emitted, including solar wind and magnetism are far less important in determining changing climate that human additions of CO2 into the atmosphere. See links under Science: Is the Sun Rising? and 100+ Papers – Sun Drives Climate
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EPA Endangerment Finding: With many new publications, the supposed scientific basis of the EPA’s finding that human greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO2, endanger human health and welfare continues to implode. Yet, some US climate “experts” are trying to suppress those who rely on empirical research and solid data.
Since 1993, US has spent over $40 billion on what government bureaucracies classify as “climate science”, and over $165 Billion on other climate activities including subsidies for solar and wind — more than on the Apollo program. [SEPP has been unable to find a solid accounting produced by government agencies on expenditures in fiscal year 2014 and fiscal year 2015, which ends September 30.] The one thing being endangered is this flow of funds. In FY 2013, it was 78% greater than National Institutes of Health reported as expenditures on all categories of clinical research on known threats to human health. No wonder, “the 20” are trying to suppress those who think independently. See “Climate Fears and Finance” http://www.sepp.org/key_issues/ClimateFearsandFinance6-6.pdf
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Pope’s Visit: Starting Tuesday, the Pope is visiting Washington, New York City, and Philadelphia. Except for linking to articles discussing the Pope’s views on western economic systems, TWTW has not discussed them. These systems can be termed as based on capitalism, private enterprise, or free enterprise. In the last, the meaning of free is from undue government control.
Many of those who strongly oppose western economic systems focus on the writings of Adam Smith, particularly The Wealth of Nations (1776). They correctly state that this book is largely devoid of human traits, especially of compassion. Unfortunately, these critics and too many exuberant followers of Smith ignore his prior work, The Theory of Moral Sentiments (1759), which provides the ethical and philosophical foundations to Smith’s later work. In it, Smith discusses some important human characteristics such as sympathy, propriety, virtues, unsocial passions, etc. Understanding Smith’s economic work requires understanding The Theory of Moral Sentiments. See links under Expanding the Orthodoxy – The Pope – Loyal Opposition and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Theory_of_Moral_Sentiments
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Delay in Regulations: During a hearing before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on a different subject, Environmental Protection Agency administrator Gina McCarthy was unable to explain why the EPA has failed to publish in the Federal Register its rules under the so-called Clean Power Plan (CCP). Delay in publishing rules has become part of the operating procedures of the Administration and the EPA.
Announcing forthcoming rules prevents utilities from beginning the planning and construction of facilities that may run afoul of the rules (a process that may take six to eight years). Not publishing the announced rules prevents the utilities and states affected from suing the EPA and the Administration, because the courts will dismiss such litigation as “not ripe”, premature until the final rules are published.
During the delay, the EPA and the Administration can boost what it is doing to “fight” climate change without incurring the need to defend their actions. See Article # 1 and links under The Administration’s Plan – Push-Back
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Clinging to Fat Tails: Mr. Mann of hockey-stick repute has an op-ed in the Huff Post emphasizing the “fat tail” of IPCC climate change risk, a risk that is largely imaginary. According to Mr. Mann the “fat tails” indicate a “greater likelihood of warming that is well in excess of the average amount of warming predicted by climate models.” Mr. Mann ignores that fact that the climate models, in general, greatly over-estimate current warming of the atmosphere, where the greenhouse effect takes place. Without “fat tails” the flow of funds to the alarmists in the Climate Establishment would be jeopardized.
Further, in discussing “existential threats” Mr. Mann ignores the threat of global cooling. Given the history of the earth over the past 2.5 million years, and its CO2 concentrations, cooling is a greater threat to humanity than warming. See link under Oh Mann.
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California Snowpack: The bountiful farms of the southern Central Valley of California depend upon moisture from the Sierra Nevada Mountains. Whether the moisture falls as snow or rain is not as important as the extensive reservoir system that is designed to capture it. The current drought in California is disturbing; but, historically, not unprecedented. The headlines based on a letter published in Nature claimed the Sierra Nevada snowpack is at a 500 year low. The headline writers did not bother reading the graphs accompanying the letter or the text.
The graph was based on instrument data dating to 1930, with measurements taken April 1. Prior data is based on proxy data from tree rings. The error range for the instrument data shows that the current low point was approximated in 1977. In the proxy data, there are about 11 years when the value was equaled or below the current value. See links under Changing Cryosphere.
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Wildfire Risk: Much is being made of wildfires occurring in the West, particularly in California. (Note the change in language from forest fires.). California Governor Brown blames these on global warming caused by CO2 emissions. He ignores the change in Federal and state government policies of suppressing fires by removing underbrush and creating fire breaks. This change in policy became intense after a controlled burn went out of control in Yellowstone in 1988. See Article # 3.
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A Tribute: On his web site, Roy Spencer gives a tribute to S Fred Singer, founder of the Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) and the Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC). The first director of the National Weather Satellite Service, Singer was a pioneer on remote sensing by satellites.
Spencer and his colleagues at the National Space Science & Technology Center at University of Alabama in Huntsville also deserve a tribute for demonstrating how government-financed research should be conducted in-spite-of political whims and politicalized views of editors of once distinguished journals in science. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Number of the Week: 23. Writing on his web site, No Tricks Zone, Pierre Gosselin states that thus far this year he has counted 23 different papers that challenge the IPCC’s claim that the solar influence on the earth’s climate is minor. Of course, such papers undermine the credibility of the IPCC’s claim that human emissions of CO2 dominate the earth’s climate. Also, they further weaken the EPA’s claim that CO2 emissions endanger public health and welfare. See links under Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
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ARTICLES:
Please note that articles not linked easily or summarized here are reproduced in the Articles Section of the full TWTW that can be found on the web site under the date of the TWTW.
1. Obama’s House of Cards
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Sep 15, 2015
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/09/obamas_house_of_cards.html
SUMMARY: President Obama seems anxious to shore up his legacy in several disparate areas: concluding a nuclear deal with Iran; reaching an international climate accord in Paris in December 2015; phasing out fossil fuels for electric generation in favor of wind and solar. But his legacy-building involves risks; biting off too much can activate adversaries. Over-riding just one White House (WH) veto may be enough to cause his whole house of cards to collapse.
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2. How to Transport Oil More Safely
Each method—pipeline, rail, boat or truck—has its pros and cons. But they all could use some improvement.
By Dan Molinski, WSJ, Sep 13, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-transport-oil-more-safely-1442197722
SUMMARY: With the tremendous growth of crude oil production in North America, the issue is the best way to transport it. The article discusses the pros and cons of each method. The statistics are based on point of delivery of crude in the US, and may include transport using multi-methods. Pipelines, which delivered 58% of the crude in in the US, are the cheapest way to move crude and spill less often than other methods. However, they can corrode over time, leading to spills, which can be large. Some pipelines have been operating since the 1940s, The American Petroleum Institute announced it was developing a comprehensive new set of standards for pipeline safety.
In 2014, boats, including tankers and barges, delivered 37% of the crude transported in the US. “Volume is the big advantage boats offer. A barge has a cargo capacity of around 1.3 million gallons—and there can be several barges per tow—while the largest transoceanic tankers can carry around 84 million gallons. A truck can move only about 9,000 gallons, and a train of 100 cars 3 million. What’s more, even with their great capacity, barges don’t face the same kind of traffic and other logistical issues as ground transport.”
Of concern are locations that experience frequent, but minor spills such as Galveston Bay, an important oil-shipping channel near Houston, which sees about 275 spills of oil and related liquids a year. According to the Congressional Research Service “Barges are the workhorses in moving Bakken [region of North Dakota] and Texas oil by water.” “However, the Coast Guard has just begun establishing a safety inspection regime for barges.”
Rail delivered about 2.7% of the crude. It is more flexible, and the spills are generally small. However as demonstrated by the Lac-Mégantic, Quebec rail disaster in 2013, which killed 47 people, spills can be deadly. Among other measures, railroads have ordered trains to slow down and forced shippers to use reinforced tank cars.
Trucks delivered about 2.6% of the crude. They are the most flexible, and often are the first leg of delivery of crude. The trucking industry is working methods of improving safety, including driver training.
[SEPP Comment: Contrary to the article, non-lethal accidents have not necessarily gotten worse, but reporting has expanded.]
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3. Carbon, Wind and Fire
California’s wildfires undo Jerry Brown’s anticarbon planning.
Editorial, WSJ, Sep 16, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/carbon-wind-and-fire-1442445243
SUMMARY: “Thousands of buildings and some 300,000 acres—10 times as much land as the city of San Francisco—have gone up in flames this week as three massive wildfires blazed across northern California. Tens of thousands of people have abandoned their homes, and Jerry Brown thinks he’s found the villain: fossil fuels.
“At a press conference on Monday, the Governor warned that the wildfires are a result and portent of cataclysmic climate change. “This is the future, from now on. It’s going to get worse, just by the nature of how the climate’s changing,” Mr. Brown inveighed. “What we see in Europe now with mass migrations, that will happen in California . . . Central America and Mexico, as they warm, people are going to get on the move.”
“Europe’s refugee crisis has been driven by turmoil in the Arab world and Western disengagement. In any case, Mr. Brown should be more worried about mass emigration driven by California’s anti-business climate.
“One irony is that wildfires diminish the impact of California’s anti-carbon policies. In 2007 environmental scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Colorado at Boulder found that “a severe fire season lasting only one or two months can release as much carbon as the annual emissions from the entire transportation or energy sector of an individual state.”
“According to a study this year led by the National Park Service and University of California, Berkeley, annual carbon releases from burning California wildland and forests—among the densest in the world—accounted for as much as 5% to 7% of statewide carbon emissions between 2001 and 2010.
“This year’s fast-burning fires are fueled by the historic drought and fanned by strong winds. But as with so many other crises in California, government policies bear much of the blame. To wit, federal policy of suppressing fires in national parks and on other protected lands for forest preservation.
“’A century of fire suppression has contributed to a potentially unsustainable buildup of vegetation,’ explains UC Berkeley forest ecologist John Battles. ‘This buildup provides abundant fuel for fires that contribute to carbon emissions.” University of Colorado researcher Jason Neff likewise notes that fire suppression policies have ‘had the unintended benefit of sequestering more carbon in our forests and reducing the impact of human combustion of fossil fuels.’
“One lesson here is that politically motivated policies intended to protect the environment often backfire—on the environment.”
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Strong evidence that Svensmark’s solar-cosmic ray theory of climate is correct
The Cloud feedback
By Magnus Cederlöf. Google translation from the Stockholm Initiative site, The Hockey Schtick, Sep 12, 2015
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/09/strong-evidence-that-svensmarks-solar.html
Body Of Science Continues To Grow …Solar Impact On Climate System Is Major And Unequivocal
The sun drives the climate: Proof of the 90 and 200-year cycles in the earth’s climate history
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, Translated/edited by P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 16, 2015
Review By German Experts Show That Even The 11-Year Solar Cycle Has Undeniable Impact On Global Climate
The sun drives climate: 11-year cycles shown in natural climate archives
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, (Translated/edited by P Gosselin), Sep 15, 2015
Long-term climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere linked to solar variations
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 15, 2015
Link to paper: Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability
By Thiéblemont, et al, Nature Communications, Sep 15, 2015
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150915/ncomms9268/full/ncomms9268.html
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Already 23 Papers Supporting Sun As Major Climate Factor In 2015 …Burgeoning Evidence No Longer Dismissible!
What’s new on solar energy? Overview of the latest papers on complex topic of sun/climate
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt, (Translated, edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Sep 14, 2015
100+ Papers – Sun Drives Climate
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, No Date
http://notrickszone.com/100-papers-sun-drives-climate/#sthash.EA6BDDJT.r4D6KjBk.dpbs
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt
RICO!
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 17, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/09/17/rico/
[SEPP Comment: The appalling low being reached by those who do not tolerate intellectual questioning and disagreement.]
Climate Scientists give up on science, talk tobacco, want to jail skeptics
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 18, 2015
Scientists Ask Obama To Prosecute Global Warming Skeptics
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Sep 17, 2015
http://dailycaller.com/2015/09/17/scientists-ask-obama-to-prosecute-global-warming-skeptics/
Scientists ask Obama for RICO investigation to end climate debate
By Thomas Richard, Examiner, Sep 17, 2015
http://www.examiner.com/article/scientists-ask-obama-for-rico-investigation-to-end-climate-debate
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back
Failed Climate Scientists Call For RICO Investigation To Stop Criticisms, And Non-Scientist Claims Scientists Will Cause Next Genocide
By William Briggs, His Blog, Sep 18, 2015
http://wmbriggs.com/post/16865/
RICO: IPCC and comrades may be prosecuted for racketeering
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Sep 18, 2015
http://motls.blogspot.com/2015/09/rico-ipcc-and-comrades-may-be.html#more
Silencing Dissent Via the Police (No Climate Free Speech, Part 3)
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Sep 18, 2015
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
S. Fred Singer: A 1960s Trailblazer for Satellite Remote Sensing
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 19, 2015
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/09/s-fred-singer-a-1960s-trailblazer-for-satellite-remote-sensing/
Is It Time To Stop The Insanity Of Wasting Time and Money On More Climate Models?
Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball, WUWT, Sep 14, 2015
Science says science is shoddy
By Ivo Vegter, Daily Maverick, South Africa, Sep 15, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2015-09-15-science-says-science-is-shoddy/#.VfhwC_RApqy
Defending the Orthodoxy
Global warming ‘pause’ never happened, scientists say
By Chelsea Harvey, Washington Post, Sep 17, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: Evidently the atmosphere is unknown to the journalist. There has been no warming for over a decade.]
Not Doomed Yet: A New Newsletter About Climate Change
A weekly summary of global-warming news, for people who want to pay more attention to it.
By Robinson Meyer, Atlantic, Sep 14, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2015/09/not-doomed-yet/405112/?utm_source=yahoo
The Changing Climate on Climate Change
By Gro Harlem Brundtland, a former prime minister of Norway and a member of The Elders, a group of independent global leaders working together for peace and human rights, Project Syndicate, Sep 17, 2015
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Barents Sea polar bears in excellent condition say Norwegian biologists
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Sep 18, 2015
Mt. Baker glaciers disappearing? A response to the Seattle Times
By Don J. Easterbrook, WUWT, Sep 13, 2015
Moonbeam Science — And Then There’s Dr. Ben Carson’s Real Science
Editorial, IBD, Sep 15, 2015
VANISHED GLOBAL WARMING may NOT RETURN – UK Met Office
But it might. Hey, we don’t know, we’re the Met Office
By Lewis Page, The Register, Sep 14, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
What Using NONE Of The World’s Fossil Fuels Would Do To Human Society …Hundreds Of Millions Dead In Just Weeks!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 18, 2015
You Ought to Have a Look: Carbon Sinks, Hurricanes, SETI
By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, Cato, Sep 15, 2015
http://www.cato.org/blog/you-ought-have-look-carbon-sinks-hurricanes-seti
The China – US Agreement?
China Outmaneuvers United States Again
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 18, 2015
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2015/09/18/china-outmaneuvers-united-states-again/
On to Paris!
Europe: The Secret Weapon for Global Climate Change Deal
By Jeff Black, Bloomberg, Sep 11, 2015
EU targets 40% cut in emissions by 2030
By Staff Writers, AFP, Sep 18, 2015
http://citizen.co.za/afp_feed_article/eu-targets-40-cut-in-emissions-by-2030/
Global Warming: More Evidence Emerges That It’s A Con
Editorial, IBD, Sep 14, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
India, like-minded nations to negotiate together at climate change summit
India, LMDCs draw up strategy prior to October meeting in Bonn where Paris summit’s negotiating text will be finalized
By Mayank Aggarwal, Live Mint, Sep 17, 2015
Paris meet on climate change shouldn’t be mitigation-centric:
By Staff Writers, Press Trust of India, Sep 15, 2015
Power, Politics and Climate Change
By Sarah Miller, World Energy, Sep 2015
http://www.energyintel.com/pages/worldopinionarticle.aspx?DocID=899341
[SEPP Comment: Optimism for Paris.]
The Administration’s Plan
Obama Seeks Psychological Help with Climate Change
The social sciences could help combat global warming
By Evan Lehmann, Scientific American, Sep 16, 2015
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/obama-seeks-psychological-help-with-climate-change/
Link to the Executive Order: Using Behavioral Science Insights to Better Serve the American People, The White House, Sep 15, 2015
http://www.eenews.net/assets/2015/09/16/document_cw_02.pdf
After Iran deal, Obama to pivot to climate change
He’ll also resume his elusive quest to close Guantanamo, officials say.
By Michael Crowley, Politico, Sep 11, 2015
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/obama-climate-change-goal-post-iran-deal-213568
The Administration’s Plan – Independent Analysis
Fossil Fuels are Essential For Modern Living
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 15, 2015
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2015/09/15/fossil-fuels-are-essential-for-modern-living/
The Administration’s Plan – Push-Back
Alaska’s climate scientists tell us the rest of the news, what Obama forgot to mention
By Larry Kummer, from the Fabius Maximus website, WUWT, Sep 13, 2015
EPA chief caught off guard on climate rule
By John Siciliano, Washington Examiner, Sep 16, 2015
The president’s decarbonization fantasy
By Luke Popovich, Vice president for external communications at the National Mining Association (NMA), Washington Examiner, Sep 16, 2015
Obama’s Not-So-Grand Energy Strategy: *Aimless Authoritarianism*
By William Yeatman, Global Warming.org, Sep 16, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The president abhors subsidies and tax preferences, except for industries he favors.]
Social Benefits of Carbon
Sahel greening confirmed
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 15, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/9/15/sahel-greening-confirmed.html
Link to paper: On regreening and degradation in Sahelian watersheds
By Kaptué, Prihodko, and Hanan, PNAS, Sep 9, 2015
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/09/09/1509645112.abstract
[SEPP Comment: A result of increasing precipitation and CO2?]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Kiss This Important Climate Goal Goodbye
By Staff Writers, American Interest, Sep 16, 2015
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/09/16/kiss-this-important-climate-goal-goodbye/
[SEPP Comment: Using UNFCCC questionable accounting practices, the pledges will amount to more than 2ºC.]
African nations threaten veto if climate deal too weak
By Charles Ole Ngereza, SciDev, Sep 16, 2015
Negotiators will block any move to weaken two degree Celsius cap
They also want deal to recognise indigenous environmental knowledge
Some nations may fight deal because of high cost of cutting emissions
[SEPP Comment: Too weak meaning not enough money for these nations.]
India, others resist emission diktat
By Staff Writers, Telegraph, India, Sep 16, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1150916/jsp/nation/story_42867.jsp#.VfrHtPRApqx
“In loss and damage, there is double speak,” he said. “When a hurricane happens, they see the gravity of climate change, when some country asks for loss and damage on that account, they come out with the logic that one has to prove whether it is climate change event or a natural event – when compensation is to be paid, it is a natural event, when there is no claim then it becomes a climate change event.”
Seeking a Common Ground
Unsustainable Development Goals
By Bjørn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Sep 15, 2015
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/unsustainable-development-goals-by-bj-rn-lomborg-2015-09
[SEPP Comment: Another morass of UN goals leading to false promises.]
The academy is broken
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 15, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/9/15/the-academy-is-broken.html
Link to summary: It’s finally out–The big review paper on the lack of political diversity in social psychology
By Jonathan Haidt, Heterodox Academy, Sep 14, 2015
http://heterodoxacademy.org/2015/09/14/bbs-paper-on-lack-of-political-diversity/
Heterodox Academy
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 15, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/09/15/heterodox-academy/
Hiatus revisionism
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 17, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/09/17/hiatus-revisionism/
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Modelling Caribbean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Trends
Ryu, J.-H. and Hayhoe, K. 2015. Regional and large-scale influences on seasonal to interdecadal variability in Caribbean surface air temperature in CMIP5 simulations. Climate Dynamics 45: 455-475. Sep 16, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/sep/a12.php
850 Years of East Siberian Summer Temperatures
Fedotov, A.P., Trunova, V.A., Enushchenko, I.V., Vorobyeva, S.S., Stepanova, O.G., Petrovskii, S.K., Melgunov, M.S., Zvereva, V.V., Krapivina, S.M. and Zheleznyakova, T.O. 2015. A 850-year record climate and vegetation changes in East Siberia (Russia), inferred from geochemical and biological proxies of lake sediments. Environmental Earth Sciences 73: 7297-7314. Sep 15, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/sep/a11.php
As indicated in the figure below, although there have been periods of both colder and warmer temperatures, there appears to be no long-term trend in the data. In addition, it is clear from the current temperature line (shown in red) that present temperatures are neither unusual, nor unordinary, within the context of the past 850 years.
Fifteen Hundred Years of South China Sea Water Temperatures
Yan, H., Sun, L., Shao, D. and Wang, Y. 2015. Seawater temperature seasonality in the South China Sea during the late Holocene derived from high-resolution Sr/Ca ratios of Tridacna gigas. Quaternary Research 83: 298-306.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/sep/a9.php
[SEPP Comment: One thousand years ago summers were about the same temperature and winter temperatures were higher than today.]
Modeling United States Cloud Fraction, Insolation and Precipitation
Lee, H., Kim, J., Waliser, D.E., Loikith, P.C., Mattmann, C.A. and McGinnis S. 2015. Using joint probability distribution functions to evaluate simulations of precipitation, cloud fraction and insolation in the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Climate Dynamics 45: 309-323., Sep 10, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/sep/a8.php
Models v. Observations
The climate monsoon
By Madhav Khandekar, Financial Post (Can) Via GWPF, Sep 17, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/madhav-khandekar-the-climate-monsoon/
[SEPP Comment: Climate models fail to depict the most important annual climate event on earth for humans.]
Model Issues
How reliable are the climate models?
Guest essay by Mike Jonas, WUWT, Sep 17, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/17/how-reliable-are-the-climate-models/
Predicting tornadoes months or even seasons in advance
By Staff Writers, Toronto, Canada (SPX), Sep 15, 2015
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Predicting_tornadoes_months_or_even_seasons_in_advance_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Already being done by those examining weather patterns.]
Measurement Issues
August 2015 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly & Model-Data Difference Update
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Sep 14, 2015
Climate Money and Adjustments: Keeping Things in Perspective [H/t Paul Homewood]
By Shub Niggurath, His Blog, Mar 21, 2015
Kent Clibze has been trying to get hold of documents that record the ‘rationale, methodology and discussions’ relating to temperature adjustments carried out by NOAA.
NOAA in turn has informed the FOI requester it needs money to comply with the request: — $262,000!
Link to rejection letter https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/fee-notification-letter-2014-001602.pdf
[SEPP Comment: This was before the latest round of NOAA adjustments!]
Scandal Part 3: Bureau of Meteorology homogenized-the-heck out of rural sites too
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 17, 2015
Changing Weather
It’s the peak of the hurricane season, and guess what…
There are no tropical storm, depressions, or hurricanes anywhere on Earth.
Guest essay by Dr. Richard Keen, WUWT, Sep 12, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/12/its-the-peak-of-the-hurricane-season-and-guess-what/
[SEPP Comment: Unusual weather day!]
Ireland Sees Coldest Summer In 30 Years! …North Atlantic, Scandinavia, Northern Russia Endure Frigid Summer
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 12, 2015
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Arctic Sea Ice Reaches Annual Low
By Staff Writers, NASA, Earth Observatory, September 16, 2015
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=86607&src=eoa-iotd
Arctic summer ice cover is 31st HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
Oh, and the Northeast Passage is open as normal
By Lewis Page, The Register, Sep 16, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: A different headline twist.]
Sierra Nevada snowpack is much worse than thought: a 500-year low
By Monte Morin, LA Times, Sep 14, 2015
http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-snowpack-20150911-story.html
Link to correspondence under Opinion & Comment: Multi-century evaluation of Sierra Nevada snowpack
By Trouet, et al, Nature, No Date
http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2809.epdf
“Our error estimation indicates that there is a possibility that a few (primarily sixteenth century) years exceeded the 2015 low…”
Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress
By Ronald O’Rourke, CRS, Sep 4, 2015
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41153.pdf
[SEPP Comment: A description of the issues in the Arctic.]
Acidic Waters
Are the Oceans Becoming More Acidic?
Guest essay by Clyde Spencer, WUWT, Sep 15, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/15/are-the-oceans-becoming-more-acidic/
On the Bright Side: Juvenile Atlantic Cod Behavior Is Impervious to Ocean Acidification
By Craig Idso, Cato, Sep 10, 2015
http://www.cato.org/blog/juvenile-atlantic-cod-behavior-impervious-ocean-acidification
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Burning remaining fossil fuel could cause 60-meter sea level rise
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Sep 15, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Over the next 10,000 years, all assuming CO2 is the primary driver of climate and there is not another ice age.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
In warming Arctic, mosquitoes may live long and prosper
By Will Dunham, Reuters, Sep 15, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://news.yahoo.com/warming-arctic-mosquitoes-may-live-long-prosper-003132184.html
[SEPP Comment: Those building the Alaska-Canadian Highway in the early 1940s realized mosquitoes were large and prospered.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
All of Antarctica Might Melt, Drowning Major Cities
By Zoë Schlanger, Newsweek, Sep 11, 2015 [H/t Peter Salonius]
http://news.yahoo.com/antarctica-might-melt-drowning-major-182728299.html
Another Lew paper
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 16, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/9/16/another-lew-paper.html
Link to paper: The “Pause” in Global Warming: Turning a Routine Fluctuation into a Problem for Science
By Lewandowsky, Risbey, and Oreskes, AMS, Preliminary, No date
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00106.1
The latest head in the sand excuse from climate science: the global warming pause ‘never happened’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 17, 2015
Link to paper: Debunking the climate hiatus
By Rajaratnam, et al, Climate Change, Sep 17, 2015
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1495-y
Global warming to pick up in 2015, 2016: experts
By Staff Writers, London (AFP), Sept 13, 2015
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Global_warming_to_pick_up_in_2015_2016_experts_999.html
[SEPP Comment: What makes the El Nino a man-made event?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Chesterton On Polls
By William Brigs, His blog, Sep 16, 2015
http://wmbriggs.com/post/16867/
“It is an error to suppose that statistics are merely untrue. They are also wicked. As used to-day, they serve the purpose of making masses of men feel helpless and cowardly…”
“Statistics never give the truth, because they never give the reasons.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
‘Climate Change Deniers Are as Bad as Hitler’. Yale History Professor Goes Full Godwin
If you don’t believe in climate change you’re as bad as Hitler.
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Sep 15, 2015
Proof-positive that AGW is not science… “World court should rule on climate science to quash sceptics, says Philippe Sands…”
Guest post by David Middleton, WUWT, Sep 18, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Blankets cover Swiss glacier in vain effort to halt icemelt
By Nina Larson, AFP, Sep 14, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://news.yahoo.com/blankets-cover-swiss-glacier-vain-effort-halt-icemelt-032809749.html
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
By Staff Writers, Sustainable Development, No Date [H/t Dennis Ambler]
https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld
“We, the Heads of State and Government and High Representatives, meeting at the United Nations Headquarters in New York from 25-27 September 2015 as the Organization celebrates its seventieth anniversary, have decided today on new global Sustainable Development Goals.”
French winemakers hunt for climate change-resistant grape
By Sandra Laffont, Liergues, France (AFP) Sept 15, 2015
http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/French_winemakers_hunt_for_climate_change-resistant_grape_999.html
[SEPP Comment: They may have to compete with wine producers in Yorkshire in mid-lands of England as they did 1000 years ago!]
Expanding the Orthodoxy – The Pope – Loyal Opposition
The Disconnect between Pope Francis’ Climate Views and His Concern for the Poor
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Sep 17, 2015
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/2156
Donald J. Boudreaux: Pope Francis Misses The Sizable Moral Dimensions To Capitalism
By Donald Boudreaux, IBD, Sep 17, 2015
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Green Dreams Dashed as Turnbull Backs Abbott’s Climate Policy (For Now)
By Angus Whitey and James Paton, Bloomberg, Via GWPF, Sep 15, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/green-dreams-dashed-as-turnbull-sticks-to-government-climate-policy-for-now/
Funding Issues
`West Polluted World’ for 150 Years, and India Says It Won’t Pay
By Anindya Upadhyay, Bloomberg, Sep 17, 2015
Poor nations want U.S. to pay reparations for extreme weather
By Thomas Kostigen, USA Today, Sep 12, 2015
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/09/12/kostigen-climate-change-reparations/72014440/
The Political Games Continue
GOP Candidates: Time to Defuse Climate Alarmism
By James Rust, Master Resource, Sep 16, 2015
https://www.masterresource.org/2016-election-issues/gop-candidates-time-to-defuse-climate-alarmism/
[SEPP Comment: Interesting post by Norman Page of correspondence with Freeman Dyson.]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
“The Case Against a U.S. Carbon Tax” (working paper lays out the issues)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Sep 17, 2015
https://www.masterresource.org/debate-issues/case-against-us-carbon-tax/
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Dear House: Say NO to Wind PTC (10th extension crucial for Obama’s energy/climate agenda)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Sep 18, 2015
https://www.masterresource.org/production-tax-credit-ptc/house-representatives-no-ptc/
[SEPP Comment: Since first enacted 23 years ago, this temporary subsidy has been extended 9 times. Wind power is not an infant industry in need of protection. But, it has not solved a fundamental problem that has existed for the thousands of years man has tried to harness wind – wind is unreliable.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Committee Chairman Questions EPA’s Transparency Over Doctored Video
Agency edited video of Gold King Mine spill
By Elizabeth Harrington, Washington Free Beacon, Sep 17, 2015
http://freebeacon.com/issues/committee-chairman-questions-epas-transparency-over-doctored-video/
New Report Details Economic Impact of EPA’s Ozone Proposal on Colorado
By Staff Writers, Center for Regulatory Solutions, Aug 12, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: Report stating that by changing regulatory standards, the EPA is asserting regulatory control over about 85% of the state’s economic activity and employment.]
New Report: Federal Controls From Tighter Ozone Caps Threaten Virginia’s Economic Growth and Will Make Traffic Worse
By Staff Writers, Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council, Sep 10, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: Report stating that by changing ozone standards EPA is asserting control over 56% of the state’s economy, 47% of the work force, and 44% of the population.]
Numbers of Contaminated Federal Sites, Estimated Costs, and EPA’s Oversight Role
By Staff Writers, GAO, Sep 11, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://gao.gov/products/GAO-15-830T
[SEPP Comment: So large that no one knows.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Resilience of US shale has surprised oil market, says ADIA economist
By Gaurav Sharma, Sharecast, Sep 17, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/resilience-us-shale-surprised-oil-151700697.html
[SEPP Comment: ADIA is Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, a sovereign wealth fund.]
Recent statistical revisions suggest higher historical coal consumption in China
By Staff Writers, EIA, Sep 16, 2015
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=22952#
[SEPP Comment: Now estimated at 14% higher than before.]
Exclusive: Chinese coal data cast doubt on historic stalling of world CO2
By Alister Doyle and David Stanway, Reuters, Sep 15, 2015
Energy Issues — US
EMP versus AGW – Is There a National Death Wish?
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Sep 18, 2015
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/09/emp_versus_agw__is_there_a_national_death_wish.html
American Oil Producers Punch Back in Price Fight
By Staff Writers, American Interest, Sep 16, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/09/16/american-oil-producers-punch-back-in-price-fight/
EIA: Shale output fell by 350,000 barrels a day since April
By Collin Eaton, Fuel Fix, Sep 15, 2015
Water demand from fracking less than 1 percent of U.S. total: study
By Richard Valdmanis, Reuters, Sep 15, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://news.yahoo.com/water-demand-fracking-less-1-percent-u-total-191753464.html
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Peak Oil is a Function of Oil Price
By Robert Rapier, Energy Trends, Sep 17, 2015
http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2015/09/17/peak-oil-is-a-function-of-oil-price/
Return of King Coal?
Vietnam and Malaysia to challenge China and India as coal importers in the long term
By Staff Writers, Coaltrans Conferences, No Date, [H/t Dennis Ambler]
Japan: Building coal plants is “climate finance”
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 13, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/13/japan-building-coal-plants-is-climate-finance/
Nuclear Energy and Fears
A nuclear future
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Sep 18, 2015
http://scientific-alliance.org/node/953
China looks forward to reactor firsts
By Staff Writers, WNN, Sep 14, 2015
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-China-looks-forward-to-reactor-firsts-1409157.html
Fukushima dumps first batch of once-radioactive water in sea
By Harumi Ozawa, Tokyo (AFP), Sept 14, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The journalist does not bother to report the current extent of its radioactivity – was it significantly greater than natural background of the oceans? What happens after it is diluted?]
Japan nuclear plant begins commercial operations
By Staff Writers, AFP, Sep 10, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
https://in.news.yahoo.com/japan-nuclear-plant-begins-commercial-094100625.html
Report: Nuke Plants Unprotected From Iranian EMP Attack
Editorial, IBD, Sep 16, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
David Attenborough’s Renewable “Apollo Project”
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 17, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/17/david-attenboroughs-renewable-apollo-project/
[SEPP Comment: It is as if hundreds of millions spent over the last 100 plus years to store electricity never occurred.]
Windmills and Sunbeams Won’t Keep the Lights On
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Sep 14, 2015
http://www.newsmax.com/LarryBell/Climate-Change-Global-Warming/2015/09/14/id/691443/
Germany Faced Huge Cost of Wind Farm Decommissioning,
By Franz Hubik, Handelsblatt, Trans. Philipp Mueller, Via GWPF, Sep 17, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/germany-faced-huge-cost-of-wind-farm-decommissioning/
[SEPP Comment: How many hundreds of acres of non-operating wind turbines exist in California? Governor Brown does not go there for photo opportunities.]
AWED Energy & Environmental Newsletter: September 14, 2015
By John Droz, Jr. Master Resource, Sep 14, 2015
Solar power is still growing rapidly, but it’s about to hit a speed bump
By Brad Plumer, Vox, Sep 9, 2015
http://www.vox.com/2015/9/9/9295907/solar-tax-credit
[SEPP Comment: Useful graph on solar power by state and by user.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Hawaii Taps the Ocean to Generate Carbon-Free Power
By Katharine Gammon, Take Part.com, Sep 15, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://news.yahoo.com/hawaii-taps-ocean-generate-carbon-free-power-190835036.html
[SEPP Comment: Poor reporting. The Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) power plant takes advantage of temperature difference between warm surface water and cold deep water off the coast of Hawaii. Such a generation system can be a breakthrough for coastal areas with warm surface waters that have a steep drop-off. The system does not need sunlight and can operate 24/7. It will be interesting to see how the project develops. http://www.makai.com/makai-news/2015_08_29_makai_connects_otec/ ]
California Dreaming
California Passes a Bill Targeting 50% Renewables by 2030
Supporters are happy, but the entire package of energy bills receives mixed reviews.
By Julia Pyper, Green Tech Media, Sep 12, 2015
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/california-bill-50-percent-renewables
California Climate Law an $8.6 Billion Coup for Solar Utilities
By James Nash, Bloomberg, Sep 14, 2015
Oh Mann!
The ‘Fat Tail’ of Climate Change Risk
By Michael Mann, Huff Post Green, Sep 11, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Environmental Industry
EPA Official Disavows American Lung Association Air-Quality Claims
By Karen Kerrigan, Center for Regulatory Solutions, Sep 11, 2015
Other Scientific News
World’s longest continental volcano chain in Australia
By Staff Writers, Canberra, Australia (SPX), Sep 15, 2015
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Worlds_longest_continental_volcano_chain_in_Australia_999.html
Other News that May Be of Interest
US military develops prosthetic hand that can ‘feel’
By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP), Sept 14, 2015
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/US_military_develops_prosthetic_hand_that_can_feel_999.html
[SEPP Comment: A goal for many years.]
Three Senators Make The Anti-Science Hall Of Fame
By Nicholas Starpoli, ACSH, Sep 15, 2015
http://acsh.org/2015/09/three-senators-make-the-anti-science-hall-of-fame/
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Extended world war
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions, Sep 16, 2015
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/3853
If we do not deal with climate change decisively, “what we’re talking about then is extended world war,” Lord Nicholas Stern, Feb 24, 2009
Half of marine life wiped out in 40 years: WWF
By Nina Larson, Marlowe Hood in Paris, Geneva (AFP) Sept 16, 2015
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Half_of_marine_life_wiped_out_in_40_years_WWF_999.html
[SEPP Comment: No comment needed.]
Growing El Nino May Launch Huge Latino Migration to U.S.
By Chriss Street, Breitbart, Sep 12, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
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The RICO letter – a 10-year old spoilt kid getting a good whupping, taking his ball home and crying to his mommy.
Look who’s running the racket. http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/09/20/update-leader-of-effort-to-prosecute-skeptics-under-rico-paid-himself-his-wife-1-5-million-from-govt-climate-grants-for-part-time-work/
Give the man a Nobel Peace Prize …..
The longer the time to follow the main efforts of science and policy to define and determine the cause of climate change and the consequences in terms of global warming. But, unfortunately, I have not seen anything logical in many stories, especially those that support the policy and not a science that studies and respecting the laws of nature.
In many places I have called attention to the fact that climate change on the planet, not only on nšoj planet, depend on the relationships of the planets and the sun.
In what way can this be proved? It depends on the interests and moods of powerful circles and when they realize that the progress of science can not be achieved with a profit interest in this field.
Today they all run and rush headlong into the unknown, only if they consider that there can be realized a personal profit.
These all who read this, I can not ignore this, as they wish, because nobody can forbid you, but remember, that I have the obvious idea that these ENIGMA successfully complete !!.
Offering up with his idea, but now I stand by that, that NASA and the Government of the United States if they have this interest, can be a little “lowered down” and to accept the offer with a contractual obligation to perform it in detail.
Read this and think there is no need to be making fun of this, but to try to solve.
I can not wait to fall soon many false theories about climate change.
“The goal, says Cheng, is to be able to predict whether there will be above or below average tornado activity in a given area over a given time. This information can play an important role in disaster planning or determining how tornado-resistant buildings need to be in a given area.”
No. Places that get tornadoes know they can get tornadoes. Quantification adds nothing. Additionally, tornadoes are extremely localized. Forecasting “tornado activity in a given area” has zero value. Even if forecasts were accurate, telling someone there may be a tornado within 50 miles of you next month will not change anyone’s behavior.
Dr. Cheng’s work is interesting, but it is has the credence of the Farmers’ Almanac.