We are all familiar with the most famous of all snow predictions, which sets the gold standard for failure, that of Dr. David Viner:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
From the article:
Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
It didn’t take long for him to be disproven:
From January 8, 2010 All of Britain covered by snow
Here is another one:
Mojib Latif, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 1 April 2000
Yes, Germany is not immune either:
Berlin Sets 100-Year March Snow Record…
Looks cold for North Atlantic this coming winter.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/NOAA%20SST-NorthAtlantic%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif
Please let that be the eastern north Atlantic. I live in the Boston area. I KNOW what snow is.
I have a hard time seeing what is snow, and what is [clouds], in that photo.
I can’t imagine a snow covered Britain with no clouds in the sky.
[Most of the clods are back over in Washington. Or New York and Boulder, CO. .mod]
There was a blocking high sitting just to the west, producing clear skies over Britain and no wind. Clear skies are a very rare even in summer, but are seen from time to time in winter, particularly when there are blocking highs to the west. You can tell by the very crisp and defined outline of Britain how snow had blanketed the entire country (although to me the picture shows a little cloud lying over the South West (Kent) area.
I remember checking the wind output on a daily basis and for a period of just over 3 weeks there was just one day when wind produced 8% of nameplate capacity and the output was typically 1 to 3% of nameplate capacity. No figures were given for how much power was actually being consumed by the windfarms in de-icing and keeping the rotors slowly turning but I guess that in these conditions, the windfarms were a net drain on the grid.
There would have been many more premature winter deaths had the UK been reliant on wind energy to meet say 30 to 40% of its energy needs as is a target under the Climate Change Act.
I never lived in Great Britain, but I lived in Moscow. When we had a cold front come in we had snowfall and snow would cover everything for hundreds of km (I can’t say it covered all of Russia because it’s a very large country). Right after the snow, we had clear blue skies for a day, maybe two days, with bitter cold. Then the clouds would come back and temperature would go up to the typical minus three, minus four degrees C. It’s definitely no good for solar panels, but I think we had 7-8 days of clear skies in winter, and it was always after heavy snow.
@george
Hmmm, maybe it’s your monitor. Unless they’ve changed the image it seems very clear to me. Scotland in the upper right, Wales in the lower left, with the green bit at the far lower left peaking out from under the clouds being Ireland, yep it’s Great Britain alright.
Well without u critiquing my work, (mod), I could be having a banner day.
Izzat Longyland I can see peering out from under the clods, lower left ??
g
Please no. I still can’t get a roofer to come fix my house roof after the monster storms this past winter in Boston.
The insurance companies in MAss still processing claims for ice dam damages to houses during this winter.
Insurance is one of those things that is often illegal when called by other names like “gambling” or “betting pool.” The problem is that when the long-odds events gang up, like they sometimes do, the house takes it in the shorts. Knowing the few insurance people I do, can’t really feel a lot of sympathy.
Cold North Atlantic means low pressure dominating giving mainly west to southwest winds and this most certainly means no cold West European winter like 2009/2010 , which had the + 1.2 C anomaly in North Atlantich SST , resulting in high pressure northwest of the British Isles and lows on a southerly path giving easterly winds with cold and snow.
Joel,
In the chart posted, the SST go low in late 2009 followed by snow in Scotland and all of Britain by the second week of January 2010. A few weeks later (from the chart) SST go high. What happened then? Pictures?
I fail to see how this chart offers much certaintity about this coming winter, still 4 or 5 months out.
Now there is a nice 8-year sine wave. And the next minima will be 2018.
So what would cause an 8-year oscillation in N Atlantic SST?
Don’t forget Australia!
You can’t trick us Aussies.
We know it’s the hottest year evvvaaahhhh.
We read it in the paper and heard it from our national broadcaster.
I’ll bet my lefty you didn’t know this “toorightmate”.
Tuesday at Cabrarmurra, Australia’s highest township, recorded it’s lowest August minimum ever! (-6.1 lowered to -6.8)
That is a substantial record bust.
No announcement, nothing.
Just an adjustment of the new lowest temperature for the month of August.
Why did I not see that all over the Australian media?
What I did get is saturation reports of a record heat wave in China!
WT.
I remember those -7C morning frosts of the 70’s in my Aussie town of St. Andrews, but thankfully, we don’t live in Europe or Alaska. I remember snow falling in Frankston in the late 80’s. I was on the bike going to work and decided to get off the roads real quick, knowing how people unaccustomed to driving in snow would react.
I remember it snowing in Frankston too. it was 1986 and the coldest outbreak I have seen in this part of the world. I lived in Dromana then and the temperature at sea level was about one degree in the morning when I got up. I thought it must have been a clear still night, but no it was windy and as a big cloud approached Arthurs Seat I thought, yep it’s gonna snow! Sure enough it did and came down quite heavily for a while. It snowed in Frankston where I was working at the time at around midday, the temperature still being around three degrees. I’ve never seen it snow since here.
@Leigh
I think “toorightmate” left off the “/sarc” tag.
DJ
Spot on.
Auto – resolutely avoiding any mention of sport (played by folk in white . . . .)
PS – We’re stating the Aussies at Cricket [At home . . .]
Bostonites. You may be in for it. There is still ice in Hudson bay. No buffer left for the “polar vortex”.
Global warming? Ice-breaker rerouted to Hudson Bay to assist commercial ships rather than doing research on global warming. A Limerick.
Irony of ironies:
CCGS Amundsen re-routed to Hudson Bay to help with heavy ice
Worst ice conditions in 20 years force change of plans to icebreaker research program
CBC News Posted: Jul 22, 2015 6:56 AM CT
Instead of the North Baffin Bay
the Amundsen did turn away.
“Too much ice in July,
all our models awry.”
Must break Ice down in Hudson’s ice bay.
A carefully planned, 115-day scientific expedition on board the floating research vessel, the CCGS Amundsen, has been derailed as the icebreaker was called to help resupply ships navigate heavy ice in Hudson Bay.
http://lenbilen.com/2015/07/22/global-warming-ice-breaker-rerouted-to-hudson-bay-to-assist-commercial-ships-rather-than-doing-research-on-global-warming-a-limerick/
All the snow and ice in Hudson bay,not to mention other parts of the world, has been highlighted on the Ice Age Now site many times. Oddly, nothing much has been reported on this site. Wonder why that is? Reminds me of the BBC news site. They don’t seem to mention it either!
Hudson Bay
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/22/arctic-expedition-to-study-global-warming-put-on-hold-because-of-too-much-ice/
BBCCBCFavorite comment via “Goldminor Sanchez”.
A few days ago there was a programme on UK TV documenting the search for the missing Franklin ships on his voyage through the North West passage in 1845/7. The search was in 2014, and the team of scientist on the ice strengthened search vessel commented on the ice conditions in the North west passage saying that it was heavy and probably very similar to that encountered by Franklin back in 1845/7!
I thought that it was strange that that remark was aired on MSM when we are led to believe that the Arctic is in a death spiral with summer ice soon to be a thing of the past. Children and Polar Bears just won’t know what pack ice is!
The programme was not on the BBC, had it been so, I am sure that the remark would have found its way to the floor of the edit room!
It might be wise to invest in companies who build or operate icebreakers and snowcats. they may become vital to commerce in decades ahead.
>>Bostonites. You may be in for it.<<
I hope you're wrong about that. I live in the sunny southwest but have to travel to the Boston area in early December this year.
Snowed in Jackson Hole WY & Big Sky MT last week …. In the middle if summer. Talk about a failed prediction …
Dammit. There goes bikini season in Iceland.
You are in luck! It is peak bikini season there right now.
http://www.bluelagoon.com/
They are a wonderful people, and they sure have their own take on things.
Oh, that’s good, the earth is still hot.
Saw a lot of bikinis at Iceland’s Blue Lagoon last year. It’s bikini season there the year around!
Bet you were glad to see the moisture anyway. The drought map shows you unusually dry.
No snow here in Ireland this summer, but… http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/july-was-one-of-the-coldest-and-wettest-on-record-in-many-places-31429090.html
Apparently, the Scots don’t have to wait for winter, winter is coming to them (h/t Bishop Hill):
http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/scotland-s-weather-snow-forecast-as-gritters-seen-1-3843824
“…increased amounts of industrial gases…”
What an odd way to refer to atmospheric gases…it’s as if the writer looked up CO2 in a dictionary and learned that carbon dioxide can be referred to as an industrial gas (there’s a whole business sector called ‘industrial gas’).
Interesting looking at London. There is less snow on the city compared to its surrounds, is this simply a reflection of urban heat or the number of obstacles i.e. Buildings which gives the appearance of less snow due to depth differences of the obstacles? Anybody have an answer on that one?
London is routinely 5 degrees warmer than the surrounding area as often mentioned by the bbc weather forecasters
tonyb
It’s called the tree-snowplow-urban heat effect.
Can Dr Viner be contacted for an updated comment?
Yes, there was a lot more snow in the 70’s and 80’s, except when there wasn’t
http://www.benziecrc.org/images/snowfall_chart2015.jpg
Can you imagine what would be said if a winter like 1973-74 happened now?
Can one see any trend in this?
It demonstrates the extent of variability.
This was back when AGW was global warming, before the great rebranding to “climate change” campaign by the climate con-artist community.
Are you familar with the infamous Frank Luntz memo, suggesting those ideologically opposed to global warming call it “climate change” instead, since he thought it was less scary?
BTW, it has always been the IPCC, and never the IPGW.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/12/27/david-viner-is-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-2/
And every other year!
Being from the Northeast and not into Winter sports I was really pulling for Dr. David Viner to be right. Who knew how wrong this guy was capable of being.
Gypsy fortune tellers probably have a better track record of prediction than Dr. Viner.
There will come a time in the future when children just aren’t going to know what AGW is.
I need that on a T shirt or bumper sticker. excellent
time for bumper sticker statement contest
Bumper stickers are the lowest form of wit.
geoff shorten
oh thank you grand arbiter of all that is
+10 on tee shirt
“There will come a time in the future when children just aren’t going to know what AGW is.”
Yes. Unfortunately, that time is about 1,000,000 years in the future.
Never learn, do you, David
Drop about 5 zeroes David and you’ll be on the money.
As we see repeatedly, the predictions are disclaimed due to “new discoveries” when they fail and a claim of a new collateral side effect of climate change (which happens to be the current weather extreme) is made. The flock accepts the new explanation and marvels at the scary computer simulations of an industrial future, too confused from the conflicting and constantly changing stories of multiple doom scenarios flaunted by the media to use whatever critical skills they own.
If the warmunists get their way…
Children just aren’t going to know what _____ is.
snowtruth
science
freedom
food
Food.
Lefties have been rewriting history- so truth and freedom is already long gone.
Science as always will remain for those that seek it.
Latitude, thanks for that graph, I always appreciate your contributions.
It tells a story, no words needed.
No words? What about source?
Cat: That graph purposely obscures the decline, which for Northern Hemisphere snow cover is -26,500 km2/year.
Download the data and calculate it for yourself:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=2
That’s a trivial change and you know it. By definition there WILL be a trend. You will always have a trend. A trend that is of 0.1% annually is not significant, and given the relatively huge annual variation, probably isn’t even a real trend, but just a result of random fluctuations. It’s certainly not evidence of catastrophe.
Eh? Where is the negative snow extent for the N hemisphere? Looks all positive, to me…
And that is a Rutgers trend-line, not mine.
Source:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1
David,
Ralfellis did it for you and it does not show a decline
Latitude: Nice obscuration. The data for NH Snow cover shows a decline of -26,500 km2/yr.
Data here:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=2
David, The average in the above chart, the red line, is about 25,000,000km2. At teh rate you are concerned about, it will take 943 years for all the snow in the northern hemisphere to be gon, assuming a continued linear decline. That scenario is of course preposterous so let me put it another way.
The fluctuations from year lows to year highs are on averaage about 40,000,000km2. The 26,500km2 you are concerned about is a mere (26,500 / 40,000,000 =) 0.066% of the annual change.
Put another way, The state of massachusetts has a land area of 27,336 km2. The area of the 48 contiguous states is 7,664,000 km2. The amount of annual snow coverage fluctuation is almost 6 times greater than the are of the USa and the anount of reduction is less than the state of Massachusetts.
It’s pretty insignificant but thanks for playing.
Cheers!
Matthew Epp
The data for spring NH snow cover does show a decline as is expected.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=2
This is good though. I would be very worried if spring snow was growing. We are at the end of an interglacial after all.
And the significance of your regression (r^2) is? The F-Test result? I think you might do better with a simple sin function.
we need to start selling or giving out summer wear T shirts for 18 year olds with a Josh cartoon and a message to the older generation, “wake up you’ve been gored, it hasn’t warmed in my lifetime” or even better a school competition for the best this generation message.
Do this before long hot summers are a thing of the past!
When references are posted in public forums regarding such failed predictions, the true believers inevitably respond that the authors were not scientists, or were speaking outside their field of expertise. To put the lie to that pathetic excuse, all the Throwback Thursday articles should include very specific details about the credentials (or absence thereof) of sources such as David Viner and Mojib Latif who were mentioned in this article.
This would help demonstrate the incompetence and/or dishonesty of the supposedly infallible scientists who are in such a consensus on the terrible dangers of global warming. Even adding such information after the fact would still help.
Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia
Professor. Dr. Mojib Latif, Leading IPCC scientist, is German meteorologist and oceanographer of Pakistani descent. Latif graduated with a Diplom in meteorology in 1983. He took a position as scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in 1985
I guess Latif had to learn German and Viner had to learn Anglian… Huh!
Speaking of failed predictions…
That is funny. Talk about cherry picking. I just looked at your chart in the link. I noticed that you were able to find warming by starting your chart at the peak cooling of the 2012 La Nina. I can see why you called the chart an OOPS. Sad, from all of your pontificating I would have expected more from you or at least to hide it better.
It’s pretty bold to predict the end of snow in the UK considering it still snows in the middle of the summer in the mountains of Scotland every few years. Ive been told this by my Scottish friend but Im not sure if he was pulling my leg.
Well, I think that it just goes to show how off-kilter a lot of the alarmists are in their predictions. Even if the sharply warming predictions were true, the result would be a big “meh”. They made up these insane predictions that are just unsupportable with even the most extreme scenarios.
It was fashionable in Victorian Britian to search the hills in summer for residual snow.
Technically Viner was right. Snow is falling in places where it is so rare that the local kids don’t know what it is.
The warmist media invariably refer to freezing events as a “cold snap” as though these events are some short aberration from their business as usual warming. When the media start referring to these events as blizzard conditions we may be making some headway.
To the media “polar vortex” and “mega-blizzard” are buzzwords for side-effects of climate change. Obama has preached that incessantly. Obamascience explains that It gets colder not as it did in the past, but in a new way which we don’t quite understand because humans have changed everything! However, the science is settled and we must eliminate carbon pollution from our new world order so our children can repay the debt this will incur as citizens of a global nation governed by progressive scientific consensus.
By the way, that should have pegged your sarc-meter.
Yes, as the earth warms up, the cold gets colder and the hot gets hotter so that when they meet we get mega storms. – Obama’s 3rd law of thermageddon.
Looking back to the height of the MWP, there appears to be a pattern of severe and frosty winters In Britain: 1205, 1210, 1234, 1254, 1261, 1271, 1281, 1292, 1306, 1335, 1365 and 1408.
Got the dates from Ogilvie and Farmer ‘Documenting the Medieval Climate’.
You will notice the cycle tightens as we plunge into the depths of the Wolf Minimum.
Wolf? is that the official name? I hadn’t heard.
Doh! I thought you meant we were currently entering the Wolf min. but thanks much for posting that chart! I’ve learned from it.
The Landscheidt Minimum is my preferred option for this new one.
See:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_A._Eddy
Search therein for “Petition to name”
Where did Ogilvie and Farmer get their numbers from?
They got their dates from ‘medieval annals as well as chronicles and the account rolls kept on manors.’
Astrid Ogilvie and Graham Farmer were fairly stringent and cross correlated, weeding out any dates that failed to meet the test.
Sadly they praised Hubert Lamb and then attempted to destroy him by denying the MWP or LIA even happened. In the conclusion they say ‘as for the hypothesised Medieval Warm Period, the situation was more complex than has been previously thought and that this term also should be used advisedly.’
The fingerprint of the Klimatariat is discernible, Mike Hulme was one of the two editors.
6 Aug: ABC Australia: Tasmanian photographer tells of iconic image of surfer daughter on snowy Clifton Beach
PLUS PHOTO GALLERY: 23 PICS
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-06/tasmanian-photographer-tells-of-iconic-photo-on-snowy-beach/6675032
8 Aug: Earthweek: Fresh Antarctic Vortex Brings Rare Australian Snow
The Southern Hemisphere’s current bitter winter brought another blast of Antarctic air to parts of Australia and New Zealand.
A massive low-pressure area channeled a flow of frigid air from the Antarctic ice shelf northward, causing snow to fall at sea level around Tasmania and mainland Australia for the first time in 10 years…
http://www.earthweek.com/2015/ew150807/ew150807c.html
Cool, imagine the Tazmanian Devil in snowshoes
http://static.comicvine.com/uploads/original/0/40/147271-172250-taz.jpg
These links don’t work:
disproven
All of Britain covered by snow
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/modis_uk_snow.jpg
It 61 deg F in central Indiana now. It is projected to go to 58. This is normally our hottest time of the year. I’m guessing the hottest year on record must be somewhere else.
My kin in the northwest are hot and thirsty lately, but that too shall pass.
I wish we had a way to give them some of our water, we have too much. I wonder if the money we spent going to Mars would have paid for a National plumbing job.
In Washington state the “hot and thirsty” weather has passed. Today’s high in Walla Walla was in the low 80s F. and tonight is predicted to be in the mid 50s F.
Weather:
https://www.facebook.com/cbcnews/videos/10153558888504604/
Like Joe B says: “Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you’ve got.”
Here are the data on Northern Hemisphere snow cover. The long-term trends are definitely negative:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=2
Been a positive trend in snow cover since 2000.
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Northern-Hemisphere-snow-cover-annual.gif
Show positive trend in snow cover for the northern hemisphere.
Ditto too.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/dec-feb_snow_ext.png
DA: No they are not. I used your link , found the same data for Northern hemisphere that Matt G has illustrated for us . No long term negative trend.
How can someone who is a senior journalist for Scientific American simply say that and expect to get away with it?
Matt, I’m going to put the same warning to you as I did to David, I would not consider that trend positive. It is dominated by a few outliers (75, 81 and the past three years). In the long term, it appears to be constant with huge internal variation.
benofhouston August 7, 2015 at 5:24 am
Disagree to some extent, in scientific terms it is positive trend and agree a cycle is shown in the data.
“It is dominated by a few outliers (75, 81 and the past three years).”
How can the recent period be an outlier when x occurs similar in 3 out of 4 years?, it is part of a new trend in the cycle.
In ten years half of them have been above 47 million (M-).sq.km, these are higher than all except one year in the past.
The graph represents colder winters during the 1960’s and 1970’s, milder winters during 1980’s and 1990’s and recently period of colder winters. It is a fairly obvious cycle and if one data point was an particular outiier, then it would be only in 1978 (over 1.5 M-.sq.km) and 1975 (under 2.0 M-sq.km) These two almost cancel each other out and 1975 is not much different to other low years, especially 1989.
Take 1975, 1978, and 1981 out of the data and still shows similar trend.
After a small adjustment and some cogent analysis from politicians ,bread and butter ‘scientists’ , and such scientific whizzes as Matt Lauer, you will believe you have not seen snow for a dozen years.
Speaking of politicians, I didn’t hear any reference to the fallacies of global warming and CO2 in the Republican presidential candidate debates this evening (Aug. 6).
The Department of Oops. Case Number 1.
It is mistake to think that because their science is so poor that the whole argument behind CAGW is weak.
In fact it has some strong points , it has managed to get CAGW to equal the same has climate change , which allowed to it claim any change is ‘proof ‘ while at the same time label CAGW sceptics has ‘deniers ‘ of any ‘climate change ‘ which of course they are not but this mud does stick .
It is the first part that is the point in this case , for ‘any’ increase/decreases of any weather factor is now ‘proof’ of their claims . So although it would seem clear that more snow undermines their cause , in some ways it actually supports their cause because its a ‘change ‘
This is not an argument has has at its root a scientific basis , therefore you cannot win it by arguing on that basis.
Define win; the observations and models have diverged enough for the public to take notice. We like to challenge CAGW supporters to provide proof, links to peer reviewed papers, surveys, etc. If they do those things, attempt to provide proof, they go down the rabbit hole. At that point CAGW begins to unravel and they can choose between inquiry and oppression. The public at large is becoming wise to the fact that the projections have not matched the observations over longer durations. It makes the argument easier for us to win. We can shut down blind CAGW ism by saying things like, “actually no, our planets ice is not melting at a record pace, check your facts.” And this is all possible, considering how biased much of the “science” has become, because CAGW ism likes to exaggerate the hell out of their predictions. And their methods stink. The deeper you dive the more it looks like garbage. Politically there are some nations that feel they can gain by gaming the public, but their are considerable right wing political encumbrances to get over, and those barriers get stiffer and higher as the public take sides…this used to be a one horse race, no longer
When Viner wrote those words the UK was at peak warmth, according to CET. Since then the CET shows dramatic cooling by around two thirds of a degree. The last couple of years has been a bit warmer.
But, despite a very short-lived heat wave a month ago, with the infamous Heathrow 36.8 degrees record, it’s overall been a very cool summer. In July I had the heating on several times and most of the time I’ve been wearing a sweater. As I write I have my sweater on and my feet actually feel a bit cold.
Just after the heatwave (was the record due to a 747 or an A380?) the Telegraph reported that “forecasters” were predicting a bigger heatwave for the end of July. Didn’t happen. What a surprise.
And now the Met Office is forecasting very cold UK winters due to low solar activity.
It must be great to be a climate scientist. You can spend a whole career being wrong – and yet it doesn’t actually harm your career….
“What if it got colder
And we had more ice and more snow,
And because of the cold
Food crops wouldn’t grow,
And we needed more energy
To keep us all warm
As there was no global warming,
Mother Nature wouldn’t conform?….
http://rhymeafterrhyme.net/what-if-it-got-colder/
I think part of the problem is that people live more comfortable lives with heat and air conditioning such that they avoid a true experience of extremes. When fresh out of college I had to lay in a pool of sweat in summer in Idaho (job there) trying desperately to sleep, but not anymore. As a kid our car never got warm if it was really cold in Chicago, nor did the school buses. so we start thinking things should always be nice and comfy and assume constancy since our indoor environment is constant.
Am wondering if the weather in northern Russia could set up Europe for a cold winter.
Because for at least a month now there has been persistent low pressure over northern Russia. Which has been sending cold Arctic air down across NE Europe / NW Russia. Now should this pattern last going into the winter. Then it will be sending cold Arctic air to just the right place. For it to push across Europe,should a blocking high form over northern Europe this winter. l will be watching with interest.
If children won’t know what snow is it will be the fault of the education system, not caGW.