The Week That Was: 2015-07-18 (July 18, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
The Sun? Last week’s TWTW discussed a new paper published by the Royal Astronomical Society announcing a “new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s” 10 to 12 year solar cycle. “The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645.”
The conditions last seen during the “mini ice age”, also known as the Little Ice Age relate to low sunspot activity, particularly as applied to the Maunder Minimum roughly from about 1645 to 1715, depending on interpretations of data. This period roughly included the Little Ice Age, roughly from about 1500 to 1850. The article did not predict a return of a Little Ice Age, which was added by others. Unfortunately, adherence to the hypothesis that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the control knob of the Earth’s temperatures clouded this distinction by using a logical “red herring” and claiming that the Little Ice Age was European event, thus the model was false.
As noted in the 2013 report of the Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), the Physical Science, the Little Ice Age was not uniform, but extremely cold and dangerous winters occurred in the Northern Hemisphere, including Eurasia and North America, and in the Southern Hemisphere; including South America and South Africa. As with a confused dog following a false scent, this red herring will lead to nowhere meaningful.
Writing in Jo Nova’s blog, David Evans references an article in Astronomy Now on the presentation by the researchers that more clearly discusses the new research than the press release by the Royal Astronomical Society.
As importantly, Evans discusses that the heat energy (largely in the form of visible light) produced by the sun will not change significantly, but other forms of energy may. “Note that the influence of sunspots on terrestrial temperatures is not because the heat of the Sun varies (that variation is pretty insignificant in terms of global warming or cooling). It is because something about the Sun, perhaps its UV output or a magnetic influence on the Earth’s upper atmosphere, affects the cloud cover on Earth, and thus how much sunlight the Earth reflects back out to space. More clouds mean more sunlight is reflected without warming the Earth, so the Earth is cooler. If the Sun is affecting the cloud cover on Earth, it is affecting the Earth’s temperature even though the heat from the Sun stays about constant.”
Evans also brings up an earlier work by Nicola Scafetta, who argued that solar dynamics (sunspot activity) since 1749 can be well-modeled by planetary orbits, particularly those of Jupiter and Saturn. Using proxy climate records, Scafetta traced the influence of these orbits on the earth’s climate back 12,000 years, through the Holocene. Scafetta’s work is basically statistical (pattern recognition), and does not produce a theoretical explanation.
Both papers bring into question the reports of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), particularly the Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5) in 2013, which contained estimates that the warming influence of carbon dioxide is some 50 to 140 times natural influences on climate. As David Evans notes: “The IPCC does not include any solar influence in the climate models except the direct heating by the Sun. But the total radiation from the Sun is almost constant — it is even known as the Solar Constant, because it wasn’t found to vary until observed by satellites starting in 1979.”
Adding to the doubt about the high certainty in their science expressed by the IPCC, a new paper appeared in the Geophysical Research Letters suggesting solar activity caused the ocean circulations to slow, particularly the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Published by the American Geophysical Union the paper states that solar “activity could be affecting a key ocean circulation mechanism that plays an important role in regulating Greenland’s climate, according to a new study. The phenomenon could be partially responsible for cool temperatures the island experienced in the late 20th century and potentially lead to increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet in the coming decades, the new research suggests.”
“The new study suggests high solar activity starting in the 1950s and continuing through the 1980s played a role in slowing down ocean circulation between the South Atlantic and the North Atlantic oceans. Combined with an influx of fresh water from melting glaciers, this slow-down halted warm water and air from reaching Greenland and cooled the island while temperatures rose across the rest of the Northern Hemisphere,…”
“The new research also suggests weak solar activity, like the sun is currently experiencing, could slowly fire up the ocean circulation mechanism, increasing the amount of warm water and air flowing to Greenland.”
There are questions if the AMOC is really slowing. See links under Science: Is the Sun Rising?, Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?, and Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/ccr2physicalscience.html
###################################################
Quote of the Week: “The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the greatest liars: the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth.” — H. L. Mencken (1880-1956)
###################################################
Number of the Week: 0 to 132%
###################################################
SEPP ADDRESS
We Are Consolidating Several Addresses to One:
Please address all your correspondence to SEPP to:
Post Office Box 1126
Springfield, VA 22151
###################################################
Melting in Antarctica: For some time, there have been reports of the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), and how sea levels will rise drastically. Generally, these reports ignore other reports relating to the warmth below the ice sheet and neglect to mention the accumulation of ice on the continent and on the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, which are far more extensive. On July 10, Science Magazine, hardly alarmist, published an article on direct measurements of the flow of heat from geothermal sources to the base of WAIS, near the Ross Ice Shelf (an area of concern). The study found heat flow (flux) to be “significantly higher than the continental and regional averages estimated for this site using regional geophysical and glaciological models.”
During the 2014, Ninth International Congress on Climate Change (ICCC – 9) SEPP Chairman Fred Singer stated that the melting of the WAIS is unrelated to the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and there is little that governments or humans can do to stop it. The new research seems to confirm this view. Interestingly, the article fails to discuss the fears of drastic sea level rise caused by melting of the WAIS from CO2. See links under Changing Cryosphere.
***************
Green Energy Subsidies: The government of the United Kingdom is announcing dramatic changes to its subsidies for electricity from on-shore wind and solar. Apparently, it is doing so because the programs have become too expensive, consumers are complaining about rapidly increasing electricity costs, and unsightly wind turbines. As with Germany, getting rid of fossil fuels with the promise of energy from “free” wind and solar is becoming very expensive. Politicians and government bureaucrats who have offered these countries as models to be followed are being warned as to their consequences.
As with Greece, Italy, Spain and some other countries, investors in such activities are seeing their “safe” investments being downgraded, without compensation. In the US, there is a legal concept called reasonable, investment-backed expectations to protect against arbitrary government actions and seizure of control of property. This concept may or may-not apply in Europe. Certainly, the importance of the concept has been greatly reduced in the US with the imposition of environmental regulations. See links under Subsidies and Mandates Forever, and Questioning European Green.
***************
Wind – Behind the Headlines: Amusingly, the UK newspaper, The Guardian, chose this time of budgetary subsidy cut-back to run an article supporting wind power and its lobby by claiming that wind power generates 140% of Denmark’s electricity demand. The article used figures from the Danish transmission systems operator, Energinet.dk, which is owned by the Danish government. Other reports state that Denmark has the highest consumer electricity prices in Europe and that it depends on exporting and importing electricity to and from Norway and Sweden for hydraulic pumped storage, which has at least a 20% loss. TWTW reviewed the 2014 annual report for Energinet.dk, which owns the Danish electricity and gas transmission system, including two gas storage facilities. It was established by the Danish Act on “Energinet Danmark of December 2004” and was the result of merger of several companies on August 24, 2005, effective January 1, 2005. The annual report states that Energinet.dk provides the framework to transition to 100% renewable energy by 2050.
The report states that electricity prices are determine by electricity prices in other countries, with northern Germany; Norway; Sweden specifically mentioned. The report also states that increased wind power in Germany is putting downward pressure of Denmark’s electricity prices. Monthly wind share in 2014 was 61.8% in January (highest) and 23% in July (lowest). This is a significant difference from the 140% reported in the Guardian, which emphasized a one-day output.
There is significant excess electricity capacity in the system with consumption at 6,039 MW; yet, central and local power stations have a capacity at 6730 MW; wind & solar capacity is 5140 MW; import capacity is 5140 MW; and export is 5880 MW. TWTW was unable to determine the prices Energinet receives when exporting electricity and what it must pay when importing electricity. Usually, times of high winds lower prices. The ratios of exports to imports was 29% to 37.5%, respectively.
The breakdown of consumer electricity bills was very interesting: 15% for actual electricity; 18% for the grid; 10% for PSO; and 57% for Taxes and VAT. PSO is defined as subsidies for environmental friendly energy production. Between 2011 and 2014, the electricity prices went down from 49.5 units to 35.0 units, but prices for Danish households went up from 123.1 to 128.4 units [units not clearly stated]. Apparently, it is not the actual cost of generation that results in high electricity costs in Denmark, but the costs of the add-on. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
***************
Logic: Some readers may recall basic lessons in logic in secondary school, such as base all generalizations on adequate support or qualify them. Apparently, some climate researchers and associate journalists do not. An example of what is called a hasty generalization occurred in a paper published by Nature Climate Change. Using the historic duration of round-trip flights between the airport serving Honolulu, Hawaii, and the airports serving three west coast cities; Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle, the researchers and journalists drew generalizations about travel time and airline fuel consumption in the future. There is no issue that wind and weather patterns may have changed during the study period, 1995 to 2013. But, there is an issue with attributing such changes to changes in atmospheric CO2 (anthropologic climate change) and assuming such changes will remain in the future. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
***************
Corn – Genetically Modified? New DNA research indicates that by domestication, using selective plantings, early farmers significantly changed the characteristics of corn (maize) with single genetic mutation. This occurred over a relatively short period some 9,000 years ago. Though not discussed, over the past 200 years farmers have further modified corn, making corn a food that can be eaten by humans without major processing. What will the restaurants which advertise non-genetically modified foods do with this research? See link under Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine.
***************
Number of the Week: 0 to 132%. The Energinet.dk 2014 annual report states that the production of electricity from wind power relative to consumption in 2014 varied between 0 to 132%. There is good reason why Denmark has such excess capacity in electricity generation and pays subsidies to maintain power plants that are not being used. See links under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
###################################################
ARTICLES:
Please note that articles not linked easily or summarized here are reproduced in the Articles Section of the full TWTW that can be found on the web site under the date of the TWTW.
1. States Take Aim at Power-Plant Rules
Last-minute requests will be made Tuesday in Washington; new rules will guide direction of utility investments
By Rebecca Smith and Amy Harder, WSJ, Jul 13, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/states-take-aim-at-power-plant-rules-1436830808
SUMMARY: The article describes the lobbying effort being made by state utility regulators in Washington. There is no one message. “California and several East Coast states want the Environmental Protection Agency to respect the steps they have already taken to cut carbon pollution in their regions and hold other states to higher standards by not easing proposed emission targets.”
“Other states, including Tennessee, Ohio and Nevada, say the pollution targets put forth by the EPA are so onerous they threaten to close power plants and cost consumers substantially more to keep the lights on.”
In addition, the journalists term carbon dioxide emissions “carbon pollution”
*****************
2. States Are Unplugging Their Renewable-Energy Mandates
North Carolina and Kansas are the latest to suffer sticker shock from the price of politicians’ green dreams.
By Donald Bryson and Jeff Glendening, WSJ, Jul 10, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/states-are-unplugging-their-renewable-energy-mandates-1436568792
SUMMARY: Written by North Carolina state director and Kansas state director for Americans for Prosperity, the article opens with: “When it comes to state energy policies, the wind is finally blowing in the right direction. Take our home states of Kansas and North Carolina, both of which have begun to look at their renewable-energy mandates with new skepticism.”
Kansas effectively repealed its Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and North Carolina froze it. “In 2014 Ohio froze its RPS law at 2.5% for two years, pushing the final target of 12.5% back to 2026. West Virginia eliminated its mandate outright in February. The other 25 states with renewable portfolio standards would be wise to follow suit. These laws were in vogue from the late 1990s to the late 2000s as lawmakers sought to demonstrate their green credentials.”
“Electricity prices in most states with RPS laws are ‘starkly higher,’ according to a 2012 Manhattan Institute report. The difference was especially striking in coal-dependent states: ‘Seven such states with RPS mandates saw their rates soar by an average of 54.2 percent between 2001 and 2010, more than twice the average increase experienced by seven other coal-dependent states without mandates.’”
“We’re fortunate that elected officials in our states are taking steps to undo this damage. But half of America’s states still suffer under the burden of Renewable Portfolio Standards. State lawmakers who want to help their constituents and boost their economies would be wise to let these green energy mandates flutter away into the wind.”
###################################################
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Is a mini-ice age coming in 2030, and does the sun have two dynamos?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jul 14, 2015
Comments by David Evans
Royal Astronomical Society’s National Astronomy Meeting 2015 – report 4
By Staff Writers, Astronomy Now, Jul 9, 2015 [H/t David Evans]
Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter–Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle
By Nicola Scafetta, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, May 2012
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682612000648
Sun’s Activity Controls Greenland Temperatures
By Staff Writer, AGU, Jul 16, 2015
http://news.agu.org/press-release/suns-activity-controls-greenland-temperatures/
Link to paper: Modern solar maximum forced late 20th century Greenland cooling
By Kobashi, et al, Geophysical Research Letters, Jun 25, 2015
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL064764/full?campaign=wlytk-41855.5282060185
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Claim: low solar activity will melt Greenland’s ice faster
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jul 6, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/16/claim-low-solar-activity-will-melt-greenlands-ice-faster/
Earth heading for ‘mini ice age’ within 15 years
River Thames could freeze over in 2030s when Northern Hemisphere faces bitterly cold winters, scientists say
By Dan Hyde, Telegraph, UK, Jul 11, 2015
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/11733369/Earth-heading-for-mini-ice-age-within-15-years.html
News about an imminent ‘mini ice age’ is trending — but it’s not true
By Sarah Kaplan, Washington Post, Jul 14, 2015
“Besides, that “Little Ice Age” that occurred during the Maunder minimum, it wasn’t so much a global ice age as a cold spell in Europe, and it may have been caused more by clouds of ash from volcanic eruptions than by fluctuations in solar activity.”
[SEPP Comment: The evidence shows the “cold spell” included Asia, North America, etc. The author must be thinking of Mr. Mann’s discredited hockey-stick.]
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back
500 sign petition to Smithsonian in defense of Dr. Willie Soon – Guess Smithsonian’s answer
Guest essay by H. Sterling Burnett, WUWT, Jul 17, 2015
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Book Review: ‘Environmentalism Gone Mad: How a Sierra Club Activist and Senior EPA Analyst Discovered a Radical Green energy Fantasy
By Anthony Sadar, Washington Times, July 12, 2015
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/12/book-review-environmentalism-gone-mad-how-a-sierra/
New Pause-Busting Temperature Dataset Implies Only 1.5 C Climate Sensitivity
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jul 14, 2015
The Fantasy World of Climate Alarmism
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Jul 17, 2015
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/1924
What NOAA NCEI isn’t telling you in their 2014 State of the Climate Report released today
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jul 16, 2015
German Geologist: “Sea Level Rise Lagging Behind Projections” …No Detectable Acceleration!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 14, 2015
[SEPP Comment: A fraction of one percent, in volume, can make a difference.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
HH Lamb’s skepticism confirmed
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jul 15, 2015
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2015/7/15/hh-lambs-scepticism-confirmed.html
[SEPP Comment: Montford commenting on a weak attack on Lamb.]
Oceans slowed global temperature rise, scientists report
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jul 16, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/16/oceans-slowed-global-temperature-rise-scientists-report/
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The Inconvenient Truth About Climate Policy
It won’t make a lick of difference when it comes to global temperatures.
By Benjamin Zycher, US News, Jul 16, 2015
Climate Change Alarmists Appear Immunized Against Reality
Ars Technica sent a writer to a recent climate-change conference in DC. Not that the science affected his mind at all.
By William Briggs, His Blog, Jul 17, 2015
http://thefederalist.com/2015/07/17/climate-change-alarmists-appear-immunized-against-reality/
Link to article: Echo chamber of outrage: Ars attends a climate skeptics’ summit
A political buffet offering everything but science
By Scott Johnson, ars technical, Jul 15, 2015
Fools Exposed, Climate Science Humiliated …2008 Predictions For 2015 Totally Wrong! –
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt, Die kalte Sonne, Translated by P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 11, 2015
OMB’s Whitewash on the Social Cost of Carbon
By Robert Murphy, IER, Jul 9, 2015
http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/ombs-whitewash-on-the-social-cost-of-carbon/
[SEPP Comment: US Office of Management and Budget ignoring its own budgetary guidelines.]
New paper finds experts were wrong: polar bears are not “walking hibernators”
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jul 16, 2015
Link to paper: Summer declines in activity and body temperature offer polar bears limited energy savings
By Whiteman, et al, Jul 17, 2015
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/349/6245/295.abstract
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately below.]
More polar bear poop
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jul 17, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/7/17/more-polar-bear-poop.html
Link to article: Polar bears fail to adapt to lack of food in warmer Arctic
By Matt McGrath, BBC, Jul 16, 2015
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33551569
[SEPP Comment: Paper linked immediately above.]
Spin Cycle: Is Climate Change Already Taking Lives in New England?
Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, CATO, Jul 15, 2015
http://www.cato.org/blog/spin-cycle-climate-change-already-taking-lives-new-england
The China – US Agreement?
China begins construction of ‘world’s tallest’ dam
By Staff Writers, Beijing (AFP), July 15, 2015
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/China_begins_construction_of_worlds_tallest_dam_999.html
The good, bad and ironic in China’s climate change pledge
By Charles McConnell, The Hill, Jul 15, 2015
On to Paris!
Japan sets 26 pct cut in greenhouse gas emissions as target
By Osamu Tsukimori, Reuters, Jul 17, 2015
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/17/japan-carbon-idUKL4N0ZX10Y20150717
Obama is paving the way for success in Paris
By Ben Adler, Grist, Jul 16, 2015
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Greek renewable power projects stalled by turmoil
By Staff Writers, EurActiv, Jul 13, 2015
http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/greek-renewable-power-projects-stalled-turmoil-316216
Seeking a Common Ground
Educating Public Utility Regulators: Is It Fruitful?
By Robert Michaels, Master Resource, Jul 16, 2015
https://www.masterresource.org/insull-samuel/are-regulators-worth-educating/
“Regulation did not originate as a goodwill gesture from enlightened attorneys who wanted to spread their notions of the public interest…. It emerged in its current shape largely as a way to enforce Samuel Insull’s efforts to protect his empire from competition for the long term….”
[SEPP Comment: Insull was a pioneer in electrifying Chicago and the Midwest – later vilified.]
The Siddhartha heuristic
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jul 13, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/07/13/the-siddhartha-heuristic/
Models v. Observations
Quantum leap taken in measuring greenhouse effect
By Tim Radford, Climate News Network, Jul 8, 2015 [Toshio Fufita]
http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/quantum-leap-taken-in-measuring-greenhouse-effect/
“New technique for analysing satellite data will allow scientists to predict more accurately how much the Earth will warm as a result of carbon dioxide emissions.”
[SEPP Comment: Assumes CO2 drives earth’s temperatures. No matter how accurate the observations, if the models are wrong, the conclusions will be wrong.]
Measurement Issues
Both NOAA and GISS Have Switched to NOAA’s Overcooked “Pause-Busting” Sea Surface Temperature Data for Their Global Temperature Products
Guest Post by Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Jul 15, 2015
Report shows record warmth, carbon dioxide levels in 2014
By Davin Henry, The Hill, Jul 16, 2015
Link to report: 2014 State of the Climate: Highlights
By Staff Writers, NOAA, Climate.gov, Jul 14, 2014
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2014-state-climate-highlights
Heat Island At Heathrow
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jul 16, 2015
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/07/14/heat-island-at-heathrow/
Met Office caught out over its ‘hottest July day ever’ claim
Was the recent ‘record’ merely caused by a blast of hot air from a passing airliner at heathrow?
By Christopher Booker, Telegraph, UK, Jul 11, 2015
Met Office: Wind data dispels doubt about cause of Heathrow high temperatures
By Roz Pidcock, The Carbon Brief, Jul 16, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Yet measurements at stations not mentioned in the article were not particularly high.]]
Changing Weather
Global cooling will follow El Nino warming – more risk on the downside
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Jul 17, 2015
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/global_cooling_will_follow_el_nino/
July 2015 ENSO Update – Tropical Pacific at the Threshold of a Strong El Niño
Guest Post by Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Jul 14, 2015
Natural Catastrophe Review Webinar [US]
First Half of 2015,
By Staff Writers, Munich RE, Jul 14, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
NOAA: Record 117-Month Major Hurricane Drought Continues
By Kathleen Brown, CNS News, Jul 14, 2015
4 reasons the Atlantic hurricane season has been so quiet (and is likely to stay that way)
By Angela Fritz, Washington Post, Jul 15, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
[SEPP Comment: The timing of named storms is not particularly, because the storm strength for a name is 39 miles per hour. A hurricane requires 74 miles per hour.]
England’s Wettest Decade? The 1870’s!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jul 13, 2015
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/07/13/englands-wettest-decade-the-1870s/
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Natural geothermal heat under Antarctic ice: ‘Surprisingly HIGH’
So it IS global warming melting it – just not the way they mean
By Lewis Page, The Register, Jul 13, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Link to paper: High geothermal heat flux measured below the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
By Fisher, et al, Science Mag, Jul 10, 2015
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/1/6/e1500093.full.pdf
Another global warming canard exposed
By Rick Moran, American Thinker, Jul 13, 2015
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/07/another_global_warming_canard_exposed.html
Changing Earth
Is Pacific Warming Related To Volcanoes?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jul 15, 2015
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Tiny genetic tweak unlocked corn kernels during domestication
By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Jul 14, 2015
NYT lets investment bankers discuss GMOs, pseudoscience ensues
By Nicholas Staropoli, ACSH, Jul 14, 2015
http://acsh.org/2015/07/nyt-lets-investment-bankers-discuss-gmos-pseudo-science-ensues/
[SEPP Comment: For what these investment bankers ignore, see link immediately above.]
Bee-Pocalypse Now?
By Shawn Regan, Property and Environment Research Center, Jun 5, 2015
http://www.perc.org/articles/bee-pocalypse-now
[SEPP Comment: Bees die, yet no effect on total number of honeybee colonies in the US. Beekeepers are rebuilding their colonies.]
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Claim: Ocean warming leads to stronger precipitation extremes
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jul 14, 2015
Claim: Ocean warming leads to stronger precipitation extremes
From the article: “That the temperatures on our planet are rising is clear. In particular, the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide continue to warm the atmosphere.”
[SEPP Comment; Atmospheric warming has stopped.]
Ocean warming leads to stronger precipitation extremes
By Staff Writers, Kiel, Germany (SPX) Jul 14, 2015
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Ocean_warming_leads_to_stronger_precipitation_extremes_999.html
[Model] “Simulations of the event with observed sea surface temperatures showed an increase in precipitation intensity of over 300%, compared to comparable simulations using sea surface temperatures representative of the early 1980s.”
Lowering Standards
Integrity and scholarship at the LSE [London School of Economics & Political Science]
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jul 13, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/7/13/integrity-and-scholarship-at-the-lse.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Cold Realities Of The DWD German Weather Service’s Warmed Up Press Releases
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 12, 2015
James Hansen: Revisiting His False Alarms (10-year warning coming due!)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, July 14, 2015
https://www.masterresource.org/hansen-james/james-hansen-false-alarms/
[SEPP Comment: It may seem unfair picking on James Hansen, but he willing reaped the accolades for his unsubstantiated predictions as he replaced objective science with politicized science at NASA-GISS.]
New Study Finds Feedback Loop Between Air Travel and Climate Change
By Prachi Patel, IEEE Spectrum, Jul 15, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Delayed flight? Blame global warming
By Steve Connor, IOL Travel, Jul 15, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://www.iol.co.za/travel/travel-news/delayed-flight-blame-global-warming-1.1885297#.Vag8R_lApqx
See link immediately above.
Study Shows Volcanic Eruptions May Be Behind Global Warming Pause
By Dianne Depra, Tech Times, Jul 11, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Earth’s degradation threatens major health gains: study
By Marlowe Hood, AFP, Jul 15, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
[SEPP Comment: See article on bee colonies in the US under Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine]
Global warming to ‘fuel migration, terrorism’
By Mariette Le Roux, AFP, Jul 13, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://news.yahoo.com/global-warming-fuel-migration-terrorism-report-142556933.html
“Countries in the Middle East and North Africa region may be at particular risk,”
“Its [the report’s] lead authors included David King, the UK foreign secretary’s climate change representative; Daniel Schrag, a member of US President Barack Obama’s council of advisors on science; and Zhou Dadi, a member of the China national expert committee on Climate Change.”
[SEPP Comment: More dangerous than radical Islam?]
The 99.99% pure climate consensus – how to ignore thousands of skeptical scientists
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jul 12, 2015
Conspiracists Concur: Climate Change Is a Colossal Cover-Up
Why science denialism and conspiracy theory walk together, suspiciously.
By Richard Martin MIT Technology Review, Jul 10, 2015 http://www.technologyreview.com/view/539286/conspiracists-concur-climate-change-is-a-colossal-cover-up/
Does greenhouse effect increase the fuel consumption by aircraft?
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Jul 15, 2015
http://motls.blogspot.com/2015/07/does-greenhouse-effect-increase-fuel.html#more
Link to Article: Coupling between air travel and climate
By Karnaskas, et al., Nature Climate Change, Jul 13, 2015
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2715.html
Wait, What? I thought it was CO2 that was going to ‘destroy civilization’, not lack of plant life
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jul 14, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Which country has the most skeptics? Australia tops name-calling, limited, biased, ambiguous survey!
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jul 15, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Casual smears at RTCC
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jul 16, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/7/16/casual-smears-at-rtcc.html
[SEPP Comment: RTCC accusing Matt Ridley of owning coal mine where all subservice energy assets belong to the state?]
Expanding the Orthodoxy – The Pope
Pope’s actions intensify political debate around climate change
By Scott Detrow, E&E, Jul 16, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1060021898
Expanding the Orthodoxy – The Pope – Loyal Opposition
Church of England Bishop and Prominent Catholic Layman Regret the Latest Papal Encyclical
By Staff Writers, GWPF, Jul 14, 2015
Link to paper: The Papal Encyclical: A Critical Christian Response
By Peer Forster and Bernard Donoughue, GWPF, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2015/07/Forster-Donoughue.pdf
Questioning European Green
“Alarming Results” From Fraunhofer Institute Study On Grid Overloading From Wind, Solar Power…Crippled Cities
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 15, 2015
What’s Going On in Germany?
By William Tucker, Real Clear Energy, Jul 16, 2015
http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2015/07/16/whats_going_on_in_germany_108594.html
Professor Blasts German Renewable Energy Policy! “Based On Naivety, Ignorance, Ideology, Illusions, False Incentives”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 13, 2015
UK Government Plans Deep Cuts in Green Energy Policy & Funding
By Jim Pickard and Elizabeth Rigby, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Jul 13, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/uk-government-plans-deep-cuts-in-green-energy-policy-funding/
UK Energy Policy – Investors Had been warned
By Peter Atherton, Jefferies, Jul 14, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
https://javatar.bluematrix.com/pdf/fAbpinFj?id=peter.atherton@jefferies.com
Climate levy change hits clean energy funds
The chancellor’s decision to make renewable energy generators pay the climate change levy has cast a cloud over wind and solar power investment funds.
By Gavin Lumsden, CityWire, UK, Jul 13, 2015
http://citywire.co.uk/money/climate-levy-change-hits-clean-energy-funds/a826164
Electricity Blackouts Risk Up
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jul 15, 2015
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/07/15/electricity-blackouts-risk-up/
Government faces multi-billion pound black hole in budget to pay for clean energy supplies – which could mean your electricity bill rises
By Oliver Wright, Independent, UK, Jul 16, 2015
EU decarbonisation policies could cost UK steel £300m a year
By Brad Allen, Edie, July 15, 2015
http://www.edie.net/news/6/EU-decarbonisation-policies-could-cost-UK-steel–300m-a-year/
OBR Confirm Horrifying Cost Of Decarbonisation [Office of Budget Responsibility]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jul 16, 2015
The Political Games Continue
Former weather service employees refuse to speak about ethics allegations
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jul 15, 2015
Litigation Issues
Court dismisses Oklahoma lawsuit against Obama climate rule
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jul 17, 2015
When courts defer to agencies
Lawmakers must step up to rein rogue rule-makers
By James Lankford, Washington Times, Jul 15, 2015
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jul/15/james-lankford-lawmakers-should-rein-in-fcc-epa/
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Edenhofer speaking to finance ministers at OECD green tax conference
By Staff Writers, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Jul 15, 2015 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Solar power subsidies to be slashed under Tory plans for a ‘big reset’ of green taxes pushing up energy bills
By Matt Chorley, Daily Mail, UK, Jul 17, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Aussie PM Tony Abbott Cancels All Government Wind Farm Subsidies
By Simon Kent, Breitbart, Jul 12, 2015
An Open Letter to Senator Hatch on the PTC
By Lisa Linowes, Wind Action, Jul 13, 2015
http://www.windaction.org/posts/43003-an-open-letter-to-senator-hatch-on-the-ptc#.VaYHhvlApqw
[SEPP Comment: Senator Hatch is chair of the Senate Finance Committee, the PTC is the production tax credit benefiting wind developers.]
Energy Dept gives $12M for offshore carbon storage research
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, jul 15, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Has not succeeded on-shore, let’s try more expensive off-shore.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA: We don’t need to justify our regulations to avert warming .01 degrees
By Thomas Richard, Examiner, Jul 10, 2015
http://www.examiner.com/article/epa-head-we-don-t-need-to-justify-our-regulations-with-data
EPA Targets Airline Industry
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Jul 14, 2015
http://www.newsmax.com/LarryBell/Climate-Change-Global-Warming/2015/07/14/id/656937/
EPA Should Retreat from Rulemakings Amid Cozy Ties With Activist Organizations
By Karen Kerrigan, Center for Regulatory Solutions, Jul 14, 2015
Gas Furnace Rule Part II: Return of the “Scorched Gas” Policy
By Mark Krebs, Master Resource, Jul 15, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Opposing a renewed effort by the Department of Energy to impose energy efficiency standards no matter the cost, all based on highly questionable estimates of costs and “energy savings.”]
IPL to Retire or Repower Coal Units in Iowa Under PSD Settlement With Feds
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Jul 15, 2015
Iowa company to close country’s 200th coal plant
By Devin Henry, The Hill, Jul 15, 2015
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/248018-iowa-company-to-close-countrys-200th-coal-plant
Energy Issues – Non-US
Report: Power Plant Air Emissions Continue Steady Decline
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Jul 15, 2015
Link to report: Benchmarking Air Emissions of the 100 Largest Electric Power Producers in the United States
By Van Atten, et al, M.J. Bradley & Associates, Jul 2015
http://www.mjbradley.com/sites/default/files/Benchmarking-Air-Emissions-2015.pdf
[SEPP Comment: In 2014, two of the six criteria pollutants, SO2 & NOx, are at 28% and 32% of what they were in 2000.]
Canada to fast-track oil pipeline permitting
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jul 13, 2015
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/247666-canada-to-fast-track-oil-pipeline-permitting
China’s Oil Supplies Widely Diversified
By Editors, Real Clear Energy, Jul 16, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Nine percent from Iran that was supposedly embargoed.]
Heat rises on Britain to change shale gas laws after projects blocked
By Karolin Schaps and Susanna Twidale, Reuters, Jul 15, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/15/uk-britain-shale-lawmaking-idUKKCN0PP1FT20150715
Oil brings development to Africa
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jul 14, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/7/14/oil-brings-development-to-africa.html
Washington’s Control of Energy
Obama unveils new coal mining rules
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jul 16, 2015
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/248197-obama-seeks-new-rules-on-coal-mining
States consider defying Obama climate rule
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jul 12, 2015
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/247589-states-consider-defying-obama-climate-rule
The Latest Sign That Coal Is Getting Killed
Coal is a sick dragon, and the bond market wields a heavy sword
By Tom Randall, Bloomberg, Jul 13, 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-13/the-latest-sign-that-coal-is-getting-killed
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Welcome to the Age of Natural Gas
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jul 17, 2015
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2015/07/17/welcome-to-the-age-of-natural-gas/
Have faith in the shale gale
By Kathleen Hartnett White, The Hill, Jul 14, 2015
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/247695-have-faith-in-the-shale-gale
Study estimates Utica shale holds gigantic amount of recoverable gas
By David Conti, TribLive (Pittsburgh, PA) Jul 14, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://triblive.com/business/headlines/8737245-74/gas-utica-marcellus#axzz3fyPEna9Q
Refiners Race to Make Cheap Oil Into Gasoline
Record driving and plenty of oil are making this the best summer to make fuel in at least a decade
By Dan Murtaugh, Bloomberg, Jul 15, 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-15/refiners-race-to-make-cheap-oil-into-gasoline
OPEC, Get Ready For The Second U.S. Oil Boom
By James Stafford, Oil Price.com, Jul 13, 2015
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/OPEC-Get-Ready-For-The-Second-US-Oil-Boom.html
Return of King Coal?
Coal Was King In The U.S. And Is Still King Worldwide
By Staff Writers, IER, Jul 10, 2015
http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/coal-was-king-in-the-u-s-and-is-still-king-worldwide/
Gas Pains? Take a Lump of Coal For It
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Jul 15, 2015
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/07/gas-pains-better-tale-some-coal-lumps.php
Link to paper: Drivers for the renaissance of coal
By Steckel, Edenhofer, and Jakob, PNAS, Jul 6, 2015
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/07/01/1422722112.abstract
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Why new national monument could derail plans for nuke dump at Yucca
By Cy Ryan, Las Vegas Sun, Jul 13, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://lasvegassun.com/news/2015/jul/10/nevada-official-says-new-national-monument-throws-/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind power generates 140% of Denmark’s electricity demand
Unusually high winds allowed Denmark to meet all of its electricity needs – with plenty to spare for Germany, Norway and Sweden too
By Arthur Neslen, Guardian, UK, Jul 10, 2015
See: Annual Report, 2014
By Peder Østermark Andrease, President and CEO, Energinet.dk, July 2015
http://energinet.dk/SiteCollectionDocuments/Engelske%20dokumenter/Om%20os/Annual-report-2014.pdf ]
Five Things I Learned About the Future of Solar Power and the Electricity Grid
By Varun Silvaram, Council on Foreign Relations, Jul 15, 2015
[SEPP Comment: From a visit to the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Light on the problems with affordable, reliable, and necessary back-up.]
AWED Energy & Environmental Newsletter: July 13, 2015
By John Droz, Jr, Master Resource, Jul 13, 2015
Can you actually hear ‘inaudible’ sound?
Limits of human hearing (infrasound and ultrasound) examined
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Jul 10, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150710123506.htm
[SEPP Comment: Initially, the question appears one of the -philosophy of science questions asked in 19th and early 20th century, and ably addressed by Bertrand Russell. “If a tree falls in the woods and there is no ear to hear it, does it make a sound?” Better questions are: can humans sense ‘inaudible’ sound waves and do such sound waves affect humans?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Greens trashing the environment part 625
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jul 17, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/7/17/greens-trashing-the-environment-part-625.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Battery Car Sales First Half Report
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jul 14, 2015
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2015/07/14/battery-car-sales-first-half-report/
Carbon Schemes
DOE Suspends Funding for California Clean Coal Project
By Thomas Overton, Power Mag, Jul 13, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://www.powermag.com/doe-suspends-funding-for-california-clean-coal-project/
[SEPP Comments: No buyers for the CO2, even in oil country. Is this one of the government’s claimed commercially available technologies?]
Environmental Industry
What the World Needs Now Is DDT
By Tina Rosenberg, NYT, Apr 11, 2004 [H/t Elliot Cramer]
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/11/magazine/what-the-world-needs-now-is-ddt.html
[SEPP Comment: A voice from the past?]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Britain’s global health role
In research, aid and regulation, the UK can lead the 21st century’s biggest industry
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Jul 5, 2015
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/britain%27s-global-health-role.aspx
Cyber Attack on U.S. Grid Could Destroy Dozens of Plants, Cost Billions, Report Says
By Thomas Overton, Power Mag, Jul 14, 2015
The Dismal Science
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Jul 17, 2015
http://scientific-alliance.org/node/942
[SEPP Comment: A different view of the meaning of Thomas Carlyle’s famous comment on economics. Applying economic principles of human behavior to environmental issues has significant difficulties, as discussed by Livermore.]
###################################################
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Fossils indicate human activities have disturbed ecosystem resilience
By Staff Writers, Corvallis OR (SPX), Jul 14, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Also, wolves no long live in today’s Washington, as noted in a past, nostalgic exhibit in the Smithsonian Institution!]
Global warming to cause ice age in 2030… or a flood
By Jazz Shaw, Hot Air, Jul 12, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/07/12/global-warming-to-cause-ice-age-in-2030/
Some Indian men are marrying multiple wives to help beat drought
By Mallika Kapur, CNN, Extreme Weather, Jul 16, 2015
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/16/asia/india-water-wives/index.html
###################################################
“Evans also brings up an earlier work by Nicola Sc….tta, who argued that solar dynamics (sunspot activity) since 1749 can be well-modeled by planetary orbits, particularly those of Ju…er and Sa…rn. Using proxy climate records, Sc….. traced the influence of these orbits on the earth’s climate back 12,000 years, through the Holocene. Sc…..’s work is basically statistical (pattern recognition), and does not produce a theoretical explanation.”
Theoretical explanation for the operating mechanism can be seen next to the entrance at the Science Museum in London
Can you elaborate? Not all of us have easy access to London, wherever that may be, :-).
Did I miss a reference to Theodore Landschidt, who relied on the movement of the center of mass of the Solar System as his driving force on the sun’s internal circulation?
The influence of sunspot number on climate is due to the geomagnetic storm forcing of the jet stream.
Fewer sunspots, with lower complexity results in fewer solar flare and coronal mass ejection events. Fewer of these events results in less plasma penetration into the upper atmosphere.
Less plasma penetration results in a destabilised jet stream, which brings cold, Arctic air down over the midwest and Eastern North American continent and also down over Central and Eastern Europe.
The cause for concern in a solar shutdown is not TSI, but these plasma penetration events.
Regarding what the electricity is traded to i Denmark (not what consumers pay) you can use this link:
http://www.emd.dk/el/
It is the price on Nordpool market.
It is interesting that only 4 comments have been posted to this blog.
Both vukcevic and Phil B brought up some interesting topics that have been bouncing around in my head all day. Upon my return from work this afternoon, I see that both have been heavily edited by the moderator…
Question: Does the magnetic fields have an effect on the atmosphere? Does it have the ability to force the jet streams? If it does, where can I find data to prove it (of course within the parameters of pattern recognition)?
Question: Looking at the larger picture of orbital influence of the sun by the planets, has there been a reasonable model that shows this influence?
And while I am thinking about it, what about the plasma that is streaming toward earth at much less speed than the light and radiation (such as x-rays). Could it be possible that the plasma itself acts as a cloud that reduces the effect of the harmful rays?
There’s quite a few studies on the solar plasma influence on the upper atmosphere. Google scholar is a good place to start, but I think there’s even an article on WUWT with an introduction to it.