The Week That Was: 2015-05-16 (May 16, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Science and Scientism: One of the chosen ones for the political witch hunt, Steven Hayward wrote a short essay differentiating between the practice of science, which can be described as objectively examining empirical evidence to test a hypothesis, and scientism, which can have many of the trappings of science, but put to other ends. Hayward begins by discussing a 1952 book by Austrian economist Friedrich August von Hayek. According to Hayward, Hayek “concludes that science of all kinds has a tendency to become what he calls ‘scientism,’ in which the claims of scientific superiority amount to yet another destructive and dogmatic authoritarian ideology.
Hayward discusses how certain politicians and some scientists use scientism to further their own ends. This use of scientism is becoming particularly obvious in the run-up for the great conference of parties (COP) sponsored by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris from November 30 to December 11, 2015. We can expect more “scientism” from Western governments and once distinguished scientific organizations that are now part of the Climate Establishment. See link under Questioning the Orthodoxy.
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Climate and Health – and Ignorance? As discussed in the April 18 TWTW, The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) released a draft for public review of its upcoming Climate & Health Assessment. As previously stated, the entire document has significant issues.
Even though the US government spent over $35 billion on climate science research from fiscal year 1993 to FY 2013, federal agencies have failed to create a global climate model, verified and validated, for predicting future temperatures. Without a valid climate model, temperature forecasts are highly speculative. Thus, the core of the entire USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment is speculative. Labeling such statements with terms such as Very Likely or High Confidence is pure fiction. There is no objective method to assess likelihood or confidence. Further, there is no indication that government agencies are attempting to create a valid climate model that has predictive power (skill).
The most distinctive feature of the chapter on vector borne diseases (chapter 4) is what is missing: how has the US addressed infectious diseases in the past? The chapter details the spread of diseases such as Lyme disease (borne by ticks) and West Nile virus & Malaria (borne by mosquitoes). Lyme disease, the major tick borne disease was subject to surveillance in 1991, and West Nile virus, the major mosquito borne disease, was first reported in 1999. Both are recent diseases in the US. Malaria was endemic in low lying land in colonial days. In fact, a 1882 map, not mentioned in USGCRP report, shows that, except for the Appalachian Mountains and northern New England, malaria was common east of the Rocky Mountains.
Further, the USGCRP report states that there were 36,307 reported cases of Lyme disease, 2,469 reported cases of West Nile virus, and 1,594 reported cases of Malaria in 2013. For individuals taken ill, the diseases are significant, but compared to the past, the numbers of those infected by vector borne diseases are insignificant in a population exceeding 317 million.
For example, the 1999 Statistical Abstract of the United States, shows that the Malaria rate in 1920 was 173 per 100,000 for a population of 106 million, or about 183,400 cases. This works out to be about 0.17% of the population in 1920 and 0.0005% of the population in 2013. Similarly, the great killer diseases of the past in the United States have been reduced to almost insignificance. These diseases include yellow fever, typhoid, and dysentery. Attempts by the USGCSP to relate infectious diseases, vector borne or not, to climate change fall flat. One of the great triumphs of Western Civilization has been the ability to address these diseases through research, public health measures, and wealth.
What is particularly disturbing about the USGCSP report is that the lead authors of the chapter on vector borne diseases are from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). One would expect that members of the CDC would know of the great improvements to American health and the control and prevention of disease during the 20th century, when the climate warmed. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Quote of the Week: Think what tedious years of study, thought, practice, experience, went to the equipment of that peerless old master who was able to impose upon the whole world the lofty and sounding maxim that “Truth is mighty and will prevail”—the most majestic compound-fracture of fact which any of woman born has yet achieved. For the history of our race, and each individual’s experience, are sown thick with evidences that a truth is not hard to kill, and that a lie well told is immortal. – Mark Twain, “Advice to Youth” (1882):
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Number of the Week: Six years; $6 Billion
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
The voting for SEPP’s annual April Fools Award is over. We thank all those who participated with nominees and votes. The winner of this close race will be announced at the 33rd Annual Meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness in Ontario, CA, from July 31 to August 2, 2015.
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Science Journalism: In discussing what he considers to be the sea level acceleration trap, David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation observes that Pacific atolls are not sinking beneath the waves as many had claimed they would. He further observes that many claims of sea level rise are within the range of error of the instruments used for measurement’, thus, cannot be considered a trend. Yet, few science journalists report such an observation. Whitehead concludes: “No financial journalist would not look at the figures behind a headline. Very few covering science ever do, and many would not even think to ask!” See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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97% Myth: In an article in the Financial Post, Ross McKitrick, who with Steve McIntyre demolished Mr. Mann’s hockey-stick, exposes the 97% myth, discussed in last week’s TWTW. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Antarctic Ice: An article on the Science 2.0 web site states that gravity data from the GRACE satellites experiment show that the west Antarctic ice sheet is melting faster than the east Antarctic ice sheet is accumulating ice. This finding brings up several issues about Antarctic Ice that some readers may find confusing.
As the article states, Antarctica has two major ice sheets. The big one is in the east and is increasing; the small one is in the west and is decreasing. The article does not discuss the surrounding sea ice (increasing). The measurements are from the GRACE satellites, which may have calibration issues. It is difficult to draw a conclusion from the apparently conflicting data, which includes mass, volume, and area, except to say that the decline in west is probably due to influences other than increases in CO2. See links under Changing Cryosphere.
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UK Election: For those who follow political polls, the UK election was a surprise – the current major party won an outright majority and it does not have to form a coalition government. The Global Warming Policy Forum speculates what this means for UK energy policy. Columnist Janet Daley made an interesting observation about why the polls were so wrong – many voters do not wish to express their views when the views are contrary to those who consider themselves to be superior. See links under Energy Issues – Non-US, The Political Games Continue – Election, and Article # 5
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Greenhouse Effect: Some of those who think the reports of UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inadequately describe the natural influences on climate, assert the Greenhouse Effect does not exist. We disagree. This TWTW will describe areas of agreement with those who believe the greenhouse effect does not exist. A subsequent TWTW will describe areas of disagreement. The following reflects the views of the author, and should not be construed to reflect the views of others.
This analysis is based on a review of Climate Change Reconsidered II – Physical Science by Martin Hertzberg, published in Energy & Environment, Volume 26, No.3, 2015. TWTW was unable to find a web link to that review. Another review by the distinguished explosives expert with a Ph.D. in Physical Chemistry from Stanford, who is also a meteorologist, can be found on the web site of Principia Scientific at http://www.principia-scientific.org/evaluation-of-climate-change-reconsidered-ii-physical-science.html. No effort was made to compare the two reviews.
Some of the areas of agreement are:
The models used by the IPCC and various governments have greatly overestimated warming, and should not be used for policy.
Ice cores from Vostok (Antarctica) show changes in temperatures precede, not follow, changes in CO2. There is a parallelism, but Al Gore got it wrong.
The IPCC fails to adequately treat “solar forcing” caused by variations in solar activity. The current “quiet Sun” may result in a cooling, which is being predicted by some solar physicists.
The observed changes in the cryosphere are within the range of natural variability. So is the average rate of sea level rise. The data does not support claims of increasing precipitation, storminess, extreme weather events, droughts, etc.
The IPCC models do not adequately account for clouds, water vapor, precipitation, ocean currents, sea ice, and permafrost.
Hertzberg goes a bit beyond the NIPCC report by stating that it would be absurd to use the climate models for public policy, to which this author agrees.
The next TWTW, will discuss other areas of agreement as well as areas of disagreement.
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Number of the Week: Six years; $6 Billion. In 2008, the federal government awarded Shell Oil leases to drill for oil and natural gas in the Chukchi Sea off northwest Alaska. According to the Wall Street Journal, Shell has spent six years and $6 billion waiting to be able to enforce the contracts. Why should any private company trust a government that refuses to honor its contracts? See Article #4
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ARTICLES:
Please note that articles not linked easily or summarized here are reproduced in the Articles Section of the full TWTW that can be found on the web site under the date of the TWTW.
1. Saving Humanity from Catastrophic Global Cooling: A Task for Geo-Engineering
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, May 13, 2015
[SUMMARY: SUMMARY: There are two kinds of ice ages; they are fundamentally different and therefore require different methods of mitigation: (i) Major (Milankovich-style) glaciations occur on a 100,000-year time-scale and are controlled astronomically. (ii) “Little” ice ages were discovered in ice cores; they have been occurring on an approx. 1500-yr cycle and are likely controlled by the Sun. The current cycle’s cooling phase may be imminent and calls for urgent action.]
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2. NY Times puts green lipstick on a pig
By Charles Battig, American Thinker, May 12, 2015
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2015/05/ny_times_puts_green_lipstick_on_a_pig.html
[Lipstick on a pig is an American term for dressing up a bad idea.]
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3. The Honor of Being Mugged by Climate Censors
I believe in global warming but also in responsible policies to address it. That can get you in trouble.
By Bjorn Lomborg, WSJ, May 13, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-honor-of-being-mugged-by-climate-censors-1431558936
[SUMMARY: Lomborg states that some climate change activists pressured “the University of Western Australia to cancel its contract to host a planned research center, Australia Consensus, intended to apply economic cost-benefit analysis to development projects—giving policy makers a tool to ensure their aid budgets are spent wisely.”
‘The new center in Perth was to be a collaboration with a think tank I run, Copenhagen Consensus, which for a decade has conducted similar research. Working with more than 100 economists, including seven Nobel laureates, we have produced research that measures the social and economic benefits of a wide range of policies, such as fighting malaria, reducing malnutrition, cutting air pollution, improving education and tackling climate change.
“Therein lay the problem. This kind of comparison can upset those who are committed to advocating less effective investments, particularly poor responses to climate change.
Copenhagen Consensus research shows that policy makers considering climate change have practical solutions. Cutting fossil-fuel subsidies is a great idea. Each year $550 billion is wasted, mostly by developing nations, on subsidies that mainly help the rich. A dramatic increase in spending on green-energy R&D is needed, as innovation will drive down the price of green energy to the point that it can outcompete fossil fuels. A well-crafted carbon tax would help too.
“But our analyses also show that Kyoto-style approaches—poorly designed EU climate policies, or the pledge to hold warming to two degrees Celsius—are costly and ineffective. There are much better ways we could spend money to help the planet.
“That conclusion draws the ire of some climate-change activists. When the collaboration between Copenhagen Consensus and the University of Western Australia was announced, the Australian Climate Council, led by paleontologist Tim Flannery, called it ‘an insult to the scientific community.’ Making up facts, the Climate Council warned supporters that I think ‘we shouldn’t take any steps to mitigate climate change.’ This set the tone for the ensuing attacks.”
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4. Shell’s Arctic Drill Bit
It only took six years and $6 billion to get oil leases honored.
Editorial, WSJ, May 15, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/shells-arctic-drill-bit-1431730502
[SUMMARY: In 2008, the federal government awarded Shell Oil leases to drill for oil and natural gas in the Chukchi Sea off northwest Alaska. Shell has spent six years and $6 billion waiting to be able to enforce the contracts. “The conditional approval on Monday means Shell must still obtain seven federal and state permits before it can touch a drill bit. The decision also comes with a bevy of new rules and restrictions on Shell’s operations. All this to begin a handful of exploratory wells.”
“The anti-fossil-fuel left is nonetheless reacting as if the Shell decision is a sign of the apocalypse. The Natural Resources Defense Council slammed the Administration for granting Shell a ‘license to despoil our last pristine ocean.’ Bill McKibben, who made opposition to the Keystone XL pipeline a liberal litmus test, lamented this week that “no one seems able to stand up to the power of the fossil fuel industry.” Mr. Obama has done more than any President to toe Mr. McKibben’s line, but he’s still not happy.”]
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5. Notable & Quotable: How U.K. Pollsters Blew It
‘The very people whom Labour needs to attract (and which it did attract when it had re-invented itself as New Labour) are once again being bullied into hiding their true attitudes and opinions.’
Janet Daley, Telegraph, UK, May 9, 2015 Via WSJ, May 10, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/notable-quotable-how-u-k-pollsters-blew-it-1431299888
[SUMMARY: “Columnist Janet Daley writing for the Telegraph (U.K.), May 9:
“What remains of the Great Prediction Mistake of 2015 is a proper analysis of how it could have come to this: all that expertise, all those hours spent questioning and analysing enormous piles of data which was designed to the most foolproof standards—and it was all wrong. It is very important to examine how this terrible error came about because the reason is not methodological, it is political. And the political reason is fundamental to an understanding of what is going wrong with our public discourse. . . .
“Somehow we have arrived at a point where the conscientiously held beliefs and values of the majority of the population have become a matter for secret shame. The desire to do as well as you can in life, to develop your potential and expect to be rewarded for it, to provide your family with the greatest possible opportunity for self-improvement and to do that on your own without being dependent on the state—these are the assumptions that seem to have become so unacceptable that identifying with them is beyond the pale, or at least so socially outrageous that it is not worth the ignominy of admitting to them.
“The Left has so dominated the conversation and so noisily traduced the “petit bourgeois” values that guide the lives of what used to be called the “respectable working class” that, ironically, it is only the most socially confident who can openly embrace them. The very people whom Labour needs to attract (and which it did attract when it had re-invented itself as New Labour) are once again being bullied into hiding their true attitudes and opinions.”]
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt
Lomborgophobia
By Brian Roberts, Quadrant, May 13, 2015
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2015/05/lomborgophobia/
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back
Is there any point to universities?
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, May 14, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/5/14/is-there-any-point-to-universities.html
Challenging the Orthodoxy
‘The New Science & Economics of Climate Change’ (Heartland’s 10th Coming up in Washington, DC)
By Jim Lakely, Master Resource, May 12, 2015
The con in consensus: Climate change consensus among the misinformed is not worth much
Not only is there no 97 per cent consensus among climate scientists; many misunderstand core issues
By Ross McKitrick, Financial Post, May 11, 2015
Paper: Climate Policy Models Are ‘Useless’
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, May 15, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise
http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/15/paper-climate-policy-models-are-useless/
Link to paper, The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy
By Robert Pinkyck, NBER Working Paper, April, 2015
http://papers.nber.org/tmp/77673-w21097.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Important questions. How probable are catastrophic climate outcomes? (p 14) How bad are they? How much must emissions be reduced to avoid these outcomes?]
22 Very Inconvenient Climate Truths
Here are 22 good reasons not to believe the statements made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Guest essay by Jean-Pierre Bardinet, WUWT, May 12, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/12/22-very-inconvenient-climate-truths/
Jean Poitou and François-Marie Bréon are distinguished members of the climate establishment and redactors of parts of the IPCC fifth assessment report report (AR5).
[SEPP Comment: The assertions are quite blunt and some readers may find them objectionable.]
The “Pause” and the Pacific
By David Whitehead, GWPF, May 5, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/the-pause-an-the-pacific/
Link to paper: Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures
By Byron Steinman, Michael Mann, Sonya Miller, Science, Feb 27, 2015
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6225/988.abstract
‘In other words, they compare climate models to observations.”
The Sea Level Acceleration Trap
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, May 5, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/the-sea-level-acceleration-trap/
Link to paper: Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era
By Watson, et al, Nature Climate Change, May 11, 2015
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2635.html
Link to other paper: Coral islands defy sea-level rise over the past century: Records from a central Pacific atoll
By Kench, et al. Geology, Mar 26, 2015
http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/early/2015/04/27/G36555.1.abstract?papetoc
Defending the Orthodoxy
Draft Climate & Health Assessment Available for Public Review
By Staff Writers, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Apr 7, 2015 [H/t CATO]
http://www.globalchange.gov/news/draft-usgcrp-climate-health-assessment-available-public-review
Report: USGCRP Climate & Health Assessment
“Thirteen Agencies, One Vision: Empower the Nation with Global Change Science”
http://www.globalchange.gov/health-assessment
Guest post: “Climate variability research: did the sceptics make us do it?” – Professor Richard Betts
By Prof. Richard Betts, Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office, (IPCC AR4 and AR5 lead author), WUWT, May 13, 2015
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Science Versus “Scientism”
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, May 9, 2015
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/05/science-versus-scientism.php
Risk Management, Not Risk Avoidance
Ross McKitrick, New Orleans Baptist Theological Seminary, April 10, 11 2015
http://www.rossmckitrick.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/mckitrick_greer-heard2015.pdf
Climate change a UN-led ruse, says Tony Abbott’s business adviser Maurice Newman
By Lisa Cox, Sydney Morning Herald, May 8, 2015 [H/t Power Line]
New Freeman Dyson Book: Dreams of Earth and Sky
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 15, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/15/new-freeman-dyson-book-dreams-of-earth-and-sky/
Oceans Dominate Global Temperatures, Not CO2
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 10, 2015
Pointless attempts to pick the “Tipping Point.”
By Geoff Brown, Australian Climate Sceptics, May 12, 2015
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/pointless-attempts-to-pick-tipping-point.html
How Can So Many World Leaders Be So Wrong?
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, May 10, 2015
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2015/05/how-can-so-many-world-leaders-be-so.html
The Theology of Climate Change
By Theodore Dalrymple, Taki’s Magazine, May 10, 2015 [H/t Not a Lot of People Know That]
http://takimag.com/article/the_theology_of_climate_change_theodore_dalrymple/print#axzz3aFOVQXFI
[SEPP Comment: Dalrymple [a pseudonym] is the author of the controversial book “Life at the Bottom.” The book describes his experiences as a public health doctor.]
UN using climate change as a tool not an issue
By Geoff Brown, Australian Climate Sceptics, May 11, 2015
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/un-using-climate-change-as-tool-not.html
The Iceman Cometh?
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, May 10, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/10/the-iceman-cometh/
FADS – The 97%
The Fraudulent 97% Consensus
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, May 12, 2015
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2015/05/12/the-fraudulent-97-consensus/
You Ought to Have a Look: Competing Theories for Source of Bias in Scientific Research
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, May 12, 2015
http://www.cato.org/blog/you-ought-have-look-competing-theories-source-bias-scientific-research
Lewandowsky and Oreskes argue that: Climate change denial in public discourse may encourage climate scientists to over-emphasize scientific uncertainty
Lewandowsky and Oreskes: normal service resumed
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, May 15, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/5/15/lewandowsky-and-oreskes-normal-service-resumed.html
The China – US Agreement?
India, China commit to work together on climate change
By Aditya Kalra, Reuters, May 15, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/15/us-india-china-climate-idUSKBN0O00N420150515
Joint Statement on Climate Change between India and China during Prime Minister’s visit to China
Press Release, By Staff Writers, Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, India, May 15, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://inbministry.blogspot.in/2015/05/joint-statement-on-climate-change.html
Social Benefits of Carbon
Plants encouraged as CO2 levels reach 400 ppm
By Tim Ball, WUWT, May 9, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/09/plants-encouraged-as-co2-levels-reach-400-ppm/
A benefit of increased Carbon Dioxide: increased efficiency in tree growth, no “Mike’s Nature trick” needed
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, May 11, 2015
Increased atmospheric CO2 makes trees use water more efficiently
By Staff Writers, Exeter, UK (SPX), May 14, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Further confirming hundreds of studies contained in the NIPCC Reports.]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Canada excludes tar sands industry from greenhouse gas cuts
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, May 15, 2015
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/242226-canada-to-cut-greenhouse-gases-30-percent
Investments worth $250 billion lined up in coal, power and renewable energy, says Piyush Goyal
By Staff Writers, Economic Times of Inida, May 13, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Seeking a Common Ground
What Does “Sustainability” Really Mean?
By William Briggs, Crisis, May 12, 2015 [H/t ICECAP]
http://www.crisismagazine.com/2015/what-does-sustainability-really-mean
Why Do Many Reasonable People Doubt Science?
We live in an age when all manner of scientific knowledge—from climate change to vaccinations—faces furious opposition.
Some even have doubts about the moon landing.
By Joel Achenbach, National Geographic, Mar, 2015 [H/t Quadrant]
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2015/03/science-doubters/achenbach-text
[SEPP Comment: For the topic of climate change, the author asks the wrong question, which should be: why do so many reasonable people find the empirical evidence of carbon dioxide controlling the earth’s temperatures insufficient?]
What would it take to convince you about global warming?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. May 13, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/05/13/what-would-it-take-to-convince-you-about-global-warming/
In the climate debate, hear both sides
By Christopher Monckton, WUWT, May 14, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/14/in-the-climate-debate-hear-both-sides/
Tackling human biases in science
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. May 14, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/05/14/tackling-human-biases-in-science/#more-18750
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Pigeonpeas Grow in Importance as the Air’s CO2 Content Rises
Sreeharsha, R.V., Sekhar, K.M. and Reddy, A.R. 2015. Delayed flowering is associated with lack of photosynthetic acclimation in Pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan L.) grown under elevated CO2. Plant Science 231: 82-93., May 13, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/may/a14.php
[SEPP Comment: Researches found significant increases in food production with higher CO2 concentrations for the plant, which is an important crop for vegetable protein.]
Benthic Primary Production of an Upwelling-Influenced Coral Reef
Eidens, C., Bayraktarov, E., Hauffe, T., Pizarro, V., Wilke, T. and Wild, C. 2014. Benthic primary production in an upwelling-influenced coral reef, Colombian Caribbean corals in response to water current exposure and seasonal upwelling. PLoS ONE 8: 10.1371/journal.pone.0080536.May 6, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/may/a11.php
CMIP3 & CMIP5 Climate Models: Still Trying to Get Things Right
Wang, G., Dommenget, D. and Frauen, C. 2015. An evaluation of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations in their skill of simulating the spatial structure of SST variability. Climate Dynamics 44: 95-114. May 11, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/may/a9.php
How Blue Mussels Are Expanding Their Presence in the High Arctic
Thyrring, J., Rysgaard, S., Blicher, M.E. and Sejr, M.K. 2015. Metabolic cold adaptation and aerobic performance of blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) along a temperature gradient into the High Arctic region. Marine Biology 162: 235-243. May 7, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/may/a7.php
Models v. Observations
A few models wandered over the pause…
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 11, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/11/a-few-models-wandered-over-the-pause/
Forecasting Climate Change Is A Very Complex Process
By Howard Lowe, WUWT, May 13, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/13/forecasting-climate-change-is-a-very-complex-process/
Measurement Issues
The scandal of sea levels — rising trends, acceleration — largely created by adjustments
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 13, 2015 [H/t Don Easterbrook]
Climate change: New claims ‘murky’ global warming statistics are ‘Guessed At’
Climate Change expert Dr Benny Peiser has claimed some surface temperature recordings used as the basis for global warming evidence are guessed at – including in the Arctic and Antarctic.
By Levi Winchester, Express, UK, May 14, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/577281/Climate-change-global-warming-statistics
ENSO and the anchovy
By phlogiston a.k.a Phil Salmon, Climate Etc. May 11, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/05/11/enso-and-the-anchovy/#more-18703
El Nino will be ‘substantial’, warn Australian scientists
By Madeleine Coorey, AFP, May 12, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://news.yahoo.com/el-nino-weather-system-begins-tropical-pacific-australia-053103198.html
[SEPP Comment: A decade ago frequency of El Nino’s were ignored as a cause for the reported warming. Check the anchovy situation – link immediately above]
The heat is on … record in global sizzle predicted for 2015
By Jodi-Ann Gilpin, The Gleaner, Jamaica, May 12, 2015 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
http://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/lead-stories/20150512/heat-record-global-sizzle-predicted-2015
[SEPP Comment: More El Nino. No one has established that El Nino are caused by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide.]
Changing Climate
New paper shows the oceans have significantly cooled over the past 500 million years
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, May 12, 2015
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/05/new-paper-shows-oceans-have.html
Changing Seas
The Reason Sea Levels Are Rising Faster
By Emily J. Gertz, Takepart.com [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://news.yahoo.com/reason-sea-levels-rising-faster-182536919.html
Link to paper: Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era
By Watson, et al. Nature Climate Change, May 11, 2015
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2635.html
From Clyde Spencer: It strikes me that claiming 0.002” per year acceleration on measuring a liquid lapping at a sensor on the shoreline of a land mass that tends to move in jerks and fits is more than pushing the limits of the precision with which such things can be measured! I wonder if they took into account the various known periodicities in tidal movement? This is like reporting the average position of a fruit fly hovering over a banana to the nearest micron.
Told ya so: new paper proves that coral atolls keep up with sea level rise
By Anthony Watts, WIWT. May 12, 2015
New paper finds sea levels were >1 meter higher than the present ~5000 years ago
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, May 14, 2015
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/05/new-paper-finds-sea-levels-were-1-meter.html
[SEPP Comment: In the Persian Gulf.]
A Green Thumb for Ocean Microbes
Growing marine bacteria in the laboratory is a challenge
By Kristen Hunter-Cevera, Oceanus, May 11, 2015
http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/a-green-thumb-for-ocean-microbes
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Gravity Data Show That Antarctic Ice Sheet Is Melting Increasingly Faster
By Staff Writers, Science 2.0, May 1, 2015
Warming Defied…Data, Studies Show NO WARMING In Antarctica…Southern Ocean Cooling Down!
No warming in Antarctica. Southern Ocean Cooling Down
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt, [Translated by P Gosselin], No Tricks Zone, May 13, 2015
Breakup fears for massive Antarctic ice shelf: study
By Richard Ingham, AFP, May 12, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://news.yahoo.com/breakup-fears-massive-antarctic-ice-shelf-study-232941608.html
[SEPP Comment: Multiple disasters from the possible breakup of an ice shelf in Antarctic Peninsula, only about twice the size of Belgium?]
Antarctic Peninsula Stopped Warming 30 Years Ago
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 15, 2015
Antarctica’s increasing sea ice restricting access to research stations
Scientists are in Tasmania for workshops on how to accurately forecast sea ice levels in the polar region, aiming to ease access and reduce shipping costs
By Michael Safi, Guardian, UK, May 11, 2015
What’s Happening To Antarctic Ice Sheets?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 13, 2015
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/05/13/whats-happening-to-antarctic-ice-sheets/
[SEPP Comment: We really do not know?]
On the Pause in Global Sea Ice Anomalies
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, May 11, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/11/on-the-pause-in-global-sea-ice-anomalies/
Beaufort Sea polynyas open two weeks before 1975 – open water is good news for polar bears
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, May 15, 2015
Acidic Waters
Did ocean acidification cause marine mollusc extinction
By Staff Writers, Southampton, UK (SPX), May 15, 2015
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Did_ocean_acidification_cause_marine_mollusc_extinction_999.html
“While the consequences of the various impact mechanisms could have made the surface ocean more acidic, our results do not point to enough ocean acidification to cause global extinctions. Out of several factors we considered in our model simulation, only one (sulphuric acid) could have made the surface ocean severely corrosive to calcite, but even then the amounts of sulphur required are unfeasibly large.
[SEPP Comment: Consistent with the views expressed in the NIPCC reports.]
Lowering Standards
The BBC on global warming is beyond a joke
Green activists, aided by the state broadcaster, are whipping up support for a new climate treaty
By Christopher Booker, Telegraph, UK, May 9, 2015
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11595186/The-BBC-on-global-warming-is-beyond-a-joke.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Desperation — who needs thermometers? Sherwood finds missing hot spot with homogenized “wind” data
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 16, 2015
Solving corrosive ocean mystery reveals future climate
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, May 11, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150511125404.htm
Link to paper: Sudden spreading of corrosive bottom water during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum
By Kaitlin Alexander, Katrin J. Meissner & Timothy J. Bralower, Nature Geoscience, May 11, 2015
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2430.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Another triumph of expert predictions
By Paul Matthews, The IPCC Report, May 8, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
https://ipccreport.wordpress.com/2015/05/08/another-triumph-of-expert-predictions/
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
German Scientists Call Rahmstorf’s Selective Citing Of Literature “Embarrassing …Science-Ethically Very Unclean”
Science-ethically dubious: Stefan Rahmstorf silent on large body of dissenting Gulf Stream results in newspaper interview
By Sebastian Lüning and Fritz Vahrenholt [Translated, edited by P Gosselin] No Tricks Zone, May 12, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The issue was the claimed diminishing speed of the Gulf Stream. Instead of citing research, Rahmstorf personally attacked Vahrenholt, who is critical of the claim.]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
IEA calls for clean-energy innovation
By Staff Writers, WNN, May 5, 2015
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/EE-IEA-calls-for-clean-energy-innovation-0505155.html
Nuclear associations sign climate declaration
By Staff Writers, WNN, May 6, 2015
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/EE-Nuclear-associations-sign-climate-declaration-0605155.html
[SEPP Comment: What percentage of those who are pushing for limiting CO2 would support nuclear with the same enthusiasm?]
Questioning European Green
Top Econ Professor Says Germany’s Renewables “Already Reached The Limits”…Country Risks “Gambling Away Its Prosperity”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 15, 2015
The Political Games Continue — Election
Green and blue politics
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, May 15, 2015
http://scientific-alliance.org/node/928
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Even Climate Skeptics Should Support a Carbon Tax: Here’s why.
By Irwin Stelzer, The Weekly Standard, May 7, 2015
https://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/even-climate-skeptics-should-support-carbon-tax_940637.html
Odd couple asks EPA for carbon tax
By Zack Colman, Washington Examiner, May 14, 2015
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Is EPA’s biofuel policy eroding the industry?
By John Siciliano, Washington Examiner, May 11, 2015
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA’s Dangerous Desire To Become America’s Energy Regulator
By William S. Scherman, Charles H. Haake and Jason J. Fleischer, Forbes, May 11, 2015
Attempting to rein in the EPA
By Daren Bakst and Nicolas Loris, The Hill, May 15, 2015
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/242147-attempting-to-rein-in-the-epa999
EPA’s draconian new plan: Is a 1% Cut in CO2 emissions worth $50 billion and 15,000 jobs annually?
Guest essay by Steven Capozzola, CAP Media, WUWT, May 13, 2015
EPA’s Hidden Regulatory Agenda Should Be Pried Open
By H Sterling Burnett, IBD, May 15, 2015
FEMA’s Pledge of Allegiance to the IPCC
By David Kreutzer, Daily Signal, May 11, 2015
http://dailysignal.com/2015/05/11/femas-pledge-of-allegiance-to-the-ipcc/
Energy Issues – Non-US
US Shale Oil Industry Is Emerging As The World’s “Swing Producer”
Editorial, Financial Times, Via GWPF, May 11, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/us-shale-oil-industry-is-emerging-as-the-worlds-swing-producer/
Britain’s New Government: What Are the Implications for UK Energy Policy?
By Staff Writers Global Warming Policy Forum, May 13, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/britains-new-government-what-are-the-implications-for-uk-energy-policy/
DECC Should be Taken Over by Environment Department
Owen Paterson, Sunday Times, Via GWPF, May 10, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/owen-paterson-decc-should-be-taken-over-by-environment-ministry/
North Sea exodus grows as fields go on the block
French and German giants join retreat from region hammered by collapse in the price of crude
UK North Sea Industry Hammered by Oil Price Collapse
By Danny Fortson, Sunday Times, Via GWPF, May 10, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/uk-north-sea-industry-hammered-by-oil-price-collapse/
AWED Energy & Environmental Newsletter: May 11, 2015
By John Droz, Jr, Master Resource, May 11, 2015
Energy Issues — US
Energy regulators move to protect electric grid from solar storms
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, May 14, 2015
EMP Attack Would Cause Chaos in the US
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, May 11, 2015
http://www.newsmax.com/LarryBell/emp-iran-cyberattack/2015/05/11/id/643799/
Experts warn U.S. to invest in grid defense
By Tara Copp, Washington Examinger, May 14, 2015
Foes Of New Sandpiper Pipeline In North Dakota Funded By Putin’s Pals
By Paul Driessen, IBD, May 14, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
The Death of the Green Energy Movement
By Stephen Moore, Daily Signal, May 8, 2015
http://dailysignal.com/2015/05/08/the-death-of-the-green-energy-movement/
[SEPP Comment: Not yet!]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Regulations Holding Back U.S. Energy Infrastructure Investments
By Mark Perry, IBD, May 14, 2015
[SEPP Comment: It starts in Washington.]
Obama Betrays Greens, Give The Go Ahead On Arctic Drilling
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, May 11, 2015
[SEPP Comment: According to the WSJ it took Shell six years and $6 billion to get oil leases honored..]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
FT: UK Energy Minister ‘Expected to Prioritise Shale Development’
By George Parkers, Financial Times, Via GWPF, May 13, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/ft-uk-energy-minister-expected-to-priorities-shale-development/
Oil glut worsens as OPEC market-share battle just beginning: IEA
By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Christopher Johnson, Reuters, May 13, 2015
http://news.yahoo.com/oil-glut-worsens-opec-market-share-battle-just-114834914–business.html
New Energy Secretary Rudd to make or break UK shale
By Annemarie Botzki, Interfax, May 13, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://interfaxenergy.com/gasdaily/article/16103/new-energy-secretary-rudd-to-make-or-break-uk-shale
Frac Sand Safe Despite What Environmentalists Say
By Staff Writers, NCPA, May 14, 2015
Link to report “Environmental Impacts of Industrial Silica Sand (Frac Sand) Mining,”
By Isaac Orr and Mark Krumenacher, Heartland Institute, May 2015
Return of King Coal?
Utility agrees to pay $102 million penalty for water pollution
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, May 14, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The exaggerated, broad claims of the influence are all too typical of the EPA.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Fire in Main Transformer Forces Shutdown of Indian Point 3 Nuclear Plant
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, May 11, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Some politicians are using the transformer fire as reason to close the plant.]
Finnish TVO scraps nuke reactor plans over EPR delays
By Staff Writers, Helsinki (AFP), May 13, 2015
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
The Tesla Powerwall is Useless
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, May 15, 2015
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2015/05/15/the-tesla-powerwall-is-useless/
True costs of wind electricity
By Planning Engineer and Rud Istvan, Climate Etc. May 12, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/05/12/true-costs-of-wind-electricity/#more-18717
Environmental Industry
Greens say climate change will worsen allergies, asthma
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, May 13, 2015
Link to Press Release:
NRDC “Sneezing and Wheezing” Report Spotlights Climate Change Links to Asthma and Allergies
By Staff Writers, NRDC, May 13, 2015
http://www.nrdc.org/media/2015/150513.asp
Link to report:
Sneezing and Wheezing: How Climate Change Could Increase Ragweed Allergies, Air Pollution, and Asthma: 2015 Update
http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/sneezing/contents.asp
[SEPP Comment: Are the Greens opposing a greening earth?]
This NRDC Report… Cough! Cough! … Has a Few Problems
By James Bacon, Bacon’s Rebellion, May 14, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.baconsrebellion.com/2015/05/this-nrdc-report-cough-cough-has-a-few-problems.html
Why Greenpeace is first on Modi government’ NGO chopping block
Greenpeace has led a global campaign against coal, which is at the heart of Modi’s plans to boost industrial production
By Sajai Jose, Business Standard, India, May 13, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Other News that May Be of Interest
Climate Change Concerns Don’t Belong in Dietary Guidelines
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, May 12, 2015
http://www.cato.org/blog/climate-change-concerns-dont-belong-dietary-guidelines
Encyclical Delayed, Possibly Downgraded To Lesser Form?
By William Briggs, His Blog, May 15, 2015
http://wmbriggs.com/post/15987/
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Truth. It’s All Greek to UWA Warmists
By Michael Kile, Quadrant, May 11, 2015
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2015/05/truth-greek-uwa/
[SEPP Comment: An amusing take on the treatment of Lomborg.]
Well, at least the daphnia will survive ‘climate change’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, May 11, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/05/11/well-at-least-the-daphnia-will-survive-climate-change/
Claim: Climate Change will make Californian Marijuana more potent
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 14, 2015
The EPA: Protecting Us Form … Nail Salons
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, May 13, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/05/the-epa-protecting-us-from-nail-salons.php
[SEPP Comment: The “Environmental Justice Small Grants” are for a variety of reasons with no dollar amounts given.]
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Has anyone seen Jimbo??
(as Bubba Cow noted last week, he’s MIA)
We miss you, O Researcher Extraordinaire.
The opening piece about science vs scientism made me think of a recommendation I’d like to share.
In my neck of the woods I am surrounded by pseudo-scientific thinkers of every spot and stripe promoting myriad forms of ‘alternative’ healthcare, therapies, diets, exercises, lotions, potions, elixirs, balms, salves, ointments, detoxifying, cleansing, centering, balancing, harmonizing, aligning, adjusting, healing, forgiving, connecting, opening, closing, breathing (did you know you don’t know how to breathe without expensive instruction?), … I could go on and on until the chakras come home to roost.
Occasionally my usual technique of ‘just ignore them and they’ll go away soon enough’ will give way to my trying to explain to the salespirit that he or she is coming from a pseudo-scientific perspective.
We all know how that goes.
Anyway, this recurring issue inspired me to search for a YouTube video that might help me explain the differences between scientific and pseudo-scientific thinking, and I was rewarded with a most excellent video.
While it is presented to an audience of psychologists and therapists to help educate them about the differences between scientific vs pseudo-scientific thinking, there is virtually NOTHING about psychology per se; that is, the presentation is very general and can be applied to any and all fields, including climatastrophy.
I whole-heartedly recommend this as insightful, informative, and entertaining, and have personally watched it a few times because of its quality. If you have an hour, you will be well served.
Pseudoscience in Mental Health Treatments
speaker: David Tolin
Qoute,”This use of scientism is becoming particularly obvious in the run-up for the great conference of parties (COP) sponsored by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris from November 30 to December 11, 2015″
After the IPCC and now the UNFCCCC I only want to add two more letters to both
IPCCFU and UNFCCCCFU or as some people know as a SNAFU.
send a message to NICOLAS HULOT : admin@news2.fnh.org
he is also on facebook
“These diseases include yellow fever, typhoid, and dysentery.”
Conspicuously absent, to me, at least, is smallpox. Two outbreaks in my mother’s rural West Virginia home town in the early 1900s literally decimated the population. Smallpox killed hundreds of millions of people worldwide before being completely eradicated.
“One would expect that members of the CDC would know of the great improvements to American health and the control and prevention of disease during the 20th century, when the climate warmed.”
This reads just like the government saying, “Give us what we want or we won’t help you.” Such vindictiveness would seem impossible 20 years ago, but who knows now?
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/may/15/new-study-finds-a-hot-spot-in-the-atmosphere