The Week That Was: 2015-05-02 (May 2, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Uncertainty: On her web site, Climate Etc., Judith Curry posted her notes on her latest presentation of what she calls the Uncertainty Monster. The presentation was a keynote talk at the “2nd International Workshop on Econometric Applications in Climatology.” Linked in the post are the slides in her presentation, which are very useful in understanding the presentation.
Curry’s effort attempts to articulate the difference, in her view, between what we know and what we do not know about climate science. Her views began after Climategate, and have changed over the past few years. Confusion and ambiguity are common in the public and the climate community, and occur because all too often members of the community fail to distinguish between knowledge and ignorance; objectivity and subjectivity; facts and values; prediction and speculation; and science and policy.
In her view, the science as reported by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has institutionalized overconfidence. The overconfidence has resulted in disagreements based on: insufficient observational evidence; disagreement about the value of different classes of evidence (e.g. models); disagreement about the appropriate logical framework for linking and assessing the evidence; assessments of areas of ambiguity and ignorance; and belief polarization as a result of politicization of the science. To this list, SEPP would add that the IPCC and its parent organization, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), have failed make it explicitly clear in every publication that their mission is not to understand all the influences on climate change, but purely the human one, thus ignoring major natural influences on climate change.
Curry goes on to describe what she calls the UNFCCC/ICCC ideology:
- Anthropogenic [human-caused] climate change is real
- Anthropogenic climate change is dangerous
- Action is needed to prevent dangerous climate change
- Deniers are attacking climate science and scientists
- Deniers and fossil fuel industry are delaying UNFCCC CO2 stabilization policies
Curry discusses major issues regarding the treatment of uncertainty, including that the often used Bayesian statistical methods, which have difficulty in dealing with true uncertainty, are subjective, and may lead to biased results. She suggests Bayesian methods may be appropriate for two-value logic: probability the hypothesis is true and probability the hypothesis is false. However, the climate problem requires evidence based logic with at least three values: 1) evidence for the hypothesis, 2) total ignorance (or uncommitted belief); and 3) evidence against the hypothesis.
She concludes with the statements:
“In the 5 years since I started stalking the uncertainty monster, we’ve seen a lot of intellectual progress on how to frame and approach this issue. It is becoming easier for scientists to do and publish research that challenges the consensus. That’s the good news.
“The bad news is that the interface between climate science and policy remains badly broken. Many politicians seem to have become uncertainty deniers, with President Obama leading the pack. The UNFCCC/IPCC is on a collision course with reality; it will be interesting to see how the Paris meeting goes next Dec, and how the IPCC AR6 will proceed. But science seems less and less relevant to what is going on in the policy arena. Which is fine; please get out of our way and let us do our science so that we can try to figure all this out by exploring the knowledge frontiers, rather than pledging allegiance to the consensus.”
In SEPP’s view, Curry’s assessments apply to the US National Assessment by the US Global Change Research Program as well as to the IPCC. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Quote of the Week: “A genuine expert can always foretell a thing that is 500 years away easier than he can a thing that’s only 500 seconds off. – Mark Twain, “A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court” [H/t Bishop Hill]
Number of the Week: Plus 53%, plus 89%, and minus 10%
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The three past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, and John Kerry, are not candidates. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on May 8 [New Date]. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you.
Preordained Policy: Ironically on April 23, the same day as Curry’s post, the Wall Street Journal carried an op-ed by Lamar. Smith, a Republican Congressman from Texas and chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, addressing the failures of the IPCC and the UNFCCC to provide rigorous science to address the human influence on climate change, particularly the influence of carbon dioxide emissions.
Rep. Smith expressed concern that the Obama administration recently submitted its pledge to the UNFCCC which would lock the U.S. into reducing greenhouse-gas emissions more than 25% by 2025 and “economy-wide emission reductions of 80% or more by 2050.” “The president’s pledge lacks details about how to achieve such goals without burdening the economy, and it doesn’t quantify the specific climate benefits tied to his pledge.
“Instead of letting political ideology or climate ‘religion’ guide government policy, we should focus on good science. The facts alone should determine what climate policy options the U.S. considers. That is what the scientific method calls for: inquiry based on measurable evidence. Unfortunately this administration’s climate plans ignore good science and seek only to advance a political agenda.
“Yet those who raise valid questions about the very real uncertainties surrounding the understanding of climate change have their motives attacked, reputations savaged and livelihoods threatened. This happens even though challenging prevailing beliefs through open debate and critical thinking is fundamental to the scientific process. [boldface added]
“The intellectual dishonesty of senior administration officials who are unwilling to admit when they are wrong is astounding. When assessing climate change, we should focus on good science, not politically correct science.”
Rep. Smith cites backs up his assertions with specific examples, including testimony by Judith Curry to his Committee a week before. [The conspiracy theorists will have fun with that.] See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Rebellion in Oklahoma? The EPA’s implementation of its “Clean Power Plan” is running into trouble. The plan is critical to the President’s pledge to the UNFCCC to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Mr. Obama apparently believes he can accomplish what he pledges by issuing Presidential executive orders. Others do not agree.
Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin has issued a state executive order asserting the state will not comply with the EPA plan. The state legislature is considering legislation reinforcing the Governor’s executive order. Oklahoma may be the first of many states to rebel. The EPA may try to force a plan on rebellious states. The legal issues would take years to work out, long after Mr Obama leaves office. To complicate the issue, some members of Congress are now asserting any multi-state compacts, which the EPA is considering, require the approval of Congress. The next few years will not be boring. See links under Litigation Issues.
Measurement Issues – Atmosphere: For over twenty-five years Roy Spencer and John Christy (University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH)) have been monitoring global atmospheric temperatures using MSU/AMSU global satellites. The data starts in December 1978. Later joined by William Braswell, they are now undertaking the most extensive revision of the procedures and computer code they have used. The new set is termed as Version 6.0. The rationale for undertaking the change is that the calibration of the satellite instruments is not rock stable, over the years there have been channel failures, and that the satellite orbits change over time.
Another reason given is that data from the older MSU instruments were reasonable for calculating global average temperatures, the new AMSU instruments are superior for calculating regional variations in temperatures.
Rather than making the changes, then submitting them to a peer-reviewed journal for publication, a process that would take at least two years, the group has publically announced its proposed changes for public review, including on Roy Spencer’s web site. The announcement is considered a draft, subject to review, of what is being done. Appropriate suggestions are being considered.
The UAH satellite adjustments are empirically based adjustments, not climate-model based adjustments such as by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). Interestingly, UAH data showed a shorter period of no warming (the pause or plateau) than the RSS data did. After the new adjustments, the new UAH dataset shows an eighteen year pause, in line with the RSS dataset.
In addition, the new UAH adjustments lowers the trend for more recent temperatures – earlier temperatures have faster warming, similar with results from the RSS approach. Land areas show a greater warming decadal trend since 1979 than ocean areas, and both trends are weaker than thermometer-based trends
As with the past, the UAH team is a sterling example of transparency in scientific research. No doubt some will be critical of what the team is accomplishing and SEPP, for example, may disagree on how UAH calculates trends. But, the team provides an example of how science progresses. See links under Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Measurement Issues – Surface: The Global Warming Policy Foundation announced the formation of a team to examine the data integrity of surface datasets. For example, the disparity between the raw and final NOAA data needs detailed explanation, something with NOAA has not provided. The repeated announcements of hottest period in the record by NOAA and NASA often are inconsistent with US temperature setting records of the 1930s. The primary issue is not a grand conspiracy, to manipulate the data, but the overall impact of a series of adjustments to the surface temperature record. Any claim of conspiracy is secondary. The Berkeley team performed such an analysis several years ago, but it focused only on land-based data. The oceans remain about 71% of the earth’s surface. See links under Measurement Issues — Surface
The Vatican: The Pope may issue an encyclical to the Catholic Church on climate change, which follows the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5, 2013-14). If so, the limitations with the UN IPCC science discussed above, in the NIPCC reports, and in past TWTWs apply. The science is anything but compelling. As seen in India, China, and elsewhere, fossil fuel use has lifted millions from dire poverty. For many, the use of fossil fuels is a blessing. A rationale for preventing climate change by curtailing fossil fuel use seems to be contrary to the Catholic social teaching on “preferential option for the poor and vulnerable.” See links under Expanding the Orthodoxy and http://www.nipccreport.org/
Thermodynamics: The April 18 TWTW expressed the view that not all the verbal variations of the Second Law of Thermodynamics apply to all forms of energy, in addition to thermal energy, which is based on the motion of atoms and/or molecules. Immediately, we received excited comments. Rather than addressing the comments individually, we are combining the comments with a more detailed explanation for this view. The explanation will focus on the verbal interpretations, not the mathematics. The explanation should appear in the May 16 TWTW if not before.
California Duck: Energy commentator Donn Dears, who has a wealth of experience with power plants and energy systems, has a solid explanation of the California Duck. The duck is a series of curves created by the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) illustrating issues of adding solar and wind electrical generation to the traditional generation mix. An over generation risk may develop when the consumption is moderate, but the renewable power is heavy, such as mid-afternoon. The situation changes in the evening, when the sun goes down, the winds die, and consumption increases. Though not without its critics, the duck explains a developing cost problem for utilities and the consumer.
Add to this, the costs of maintaining traditional sources of reliable power, the energy policies of California may be creating difficult future problems. The Governor just issued an executive order calling for more renewable power. The question is at what point does the duck get so fat that it cannot waddle? See links under California Dreaming.
April Fools: In addition to nominees discussed in the April 18 TWTW, Governors Peter Shumlin of Vermont and Jay Inslee of Washington have been nominated for the SEPP’s April Fools Award. Hillary Clinton, Christiana Figueres of the UNFCCC, Angela Merkel, PM of Germany, Janet McCabe of the EPA, and William Chameides of Duke University have also been nominated for this prestigious honor. Please cast your vote or present a new candidate by May 8. Thank you.
Number of the Week: Plus 53%, plus 89%, and minus 10%. According to an April 3 report to Congress by Marc Humphries of the Congressional Research Service, from Fiscal Year 2010 to FY 2014, oil production in the US increased by 53%, total; 89%. on non-Federal lands; and declined 10% on Federal-controlled lands and waters. Correspondingly, natural gas production increased 22% total; 37% on private lands; and declined 31% on Federal-controlled lands and waters. Deep underground horizontal drilling with multi-port hydraulic fracturing has not been permitted on Federal lands and shut off from Federal waters. No wonder the Greens and their political adherents invent myths casting doubts on the safety of “fracking.”
Please note that articles not linked easily or summarized here are reproduced in the Articles Section of the full TWTW that can be found on the web site under the date of the TWTW.
1. Preventing a Coming Ice Age
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Apr 18, 2015
[SUMMARY: A new twist to geo-engineering can be assessed at:]
2. Why States Should Boycott the Federal Clean Power Plan
Better for states not to comply with the EPA’s plans than to go along and absolve the feds of accountability for the mess.
B Kenneth Hill, WSJ, Apr 21, 2015
[SUMMARY: As a state public utilities commissioner, the Director of the Tennessee Regulatory Authority agrees with Senate Majority Leader McConnell who suggests the states do not comply with the EPA “Clean Power Plan.” If the EPA imposes power plans on the states, then the EPA and the Federal governments are in a legally tenuous position that may have serious political repercussions. Any of the four possible building blocks for state plans will cause soaring electricity rates. Further, such plans will threaten electrical reliability.
Those states that submit plans will be beholden to the EPA for any changes, an undesirable position. They will be unable to hold the EPA accountable for any increases in electricity costs and potential disasters from the plan. There is plenty of time before submitting any plans and the 2016 election will be taking place when plans are due.]
3. Carbon Taxes In Revenue Fantasyland
There’s nothing neutral about plans for offsetting the added expenses. Let’s take a look at Yale’s new green brainstorm.
By Oren Cass, WSJ, Apr 30, 2015
[SUMMARY: Carbon tax is “presented as an article of faith that such a tax shall be “revenue neutral,” meaning that every dollar raised will be offset by a rebate or a tax cut. This is a convenient and misleading fiction. It might work on the first day, when the tax goes into effect and people pay a tax on their carbon emissions while paying commensurately lower other taxes. But what happens when people respond to the tax by reducing their carbon emissions? What happens in year 10, when people have responded to the tax by shifting toward expensive alternatives to carbon-intensive energy production?
“Two problems emerge. First, the tax base will have shifted onto something that we are trying to reduce. As carbon emissions decline, so too will tax revenues. This dynamic might seem appealing as a way to “starve the beast” and force cuts in government spending, but more likely it will trigger irresistible pressure for tax increases. It is a policy mistake to leave the government reliant on a diminishing-by-design tax base for its funding and political folly to program a strong demand for increased revenue into the tax code. [Boldface added]
“Moreover, a carbon tax may be revenue-neutral on the way up but it is not on the way back down. As taxable, carbon-intensive energy sources are replaced by higher-cost/lower-emissions alternatives—arguably the whole point of the policy—Americans will continue to pay a price implicitly inflated by the tax even though their government no longer receives the revenue from it. As substitute taxes come back online to make up the difference, even if that substitute is simply an ever-increasing rate on the remaining carbon emissions, the economy is left to pay for both the higher-cost energy and the full tax burden it already supports today.”]
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
The sun is now virtually blank during the weakest solar cycle in more than a century
By Paul Dorian, Vencore, Inc, Apr 30, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Norwegian Sea Temperatures Linked To Solar Variation
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 27, 2105
Euthanizing Overholt et al.: How bad can a bad paper be?
By Nir Schaviv, Science Bits, Apr 26, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Technical. Also discusses problems in the peer review process]
Scientific American article: “How to Misinterpret Climate Change Research”
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Apr 24, 2015
SciAm’s climate sensitivity car crash
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Apr 23, 2015
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Bill Nye: Climate change is “not something you should be debating or denying”
By Chris Mooney, Washington Post, Apr 24, 2015 [H/t Timothy Weis]
[SEPP Comment: The debate is the human influence as compared with the natural influence.]
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back
Climate change and the ‘settled science’ bullies
By Ronald J. Rychlak, WND, Apr 20, 2015
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Stalking the uncertainty monster
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 23, 2015
The Climate-Change Religion
Earth Day provided a fresh opening for Obama to raise alarms about global warming based on beliefs, not science.
By Lamar Smith, WSJ, Apr 23, 2015
Via GWPF: Lamar Smith: The Climate-Change Religion
Iris hypothesis bridges model-observation gap
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Apr 21, 2015
Link to paper: Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models
By Thorsten Mauritsen & Bjorn Stevens, Nature Geoscience, Apr 20, 2015
Also see: The Iris Hypothesis from the archives
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Apr 21, 2015
A Sane Voice Amid the Wailing Warmists
By Editors, from Judith Curry’s oral testinomy, Quadrant, Apr 24, 2015
Taking a broom to climate change gloom and doom
By Anthony J. Sadar, American Thinker, Apr 25, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Review of new book by Larry Bell.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Draft Climate & Health Assessment Available for Public Review
By Staff Writers, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Apr 7, 2015 [H/t CATO]
Report: USGCRP Climate & Health Assessment
“Thirteen Agencies, One Vision: Empower the Nation with Global Change Science”
Obama’s Global Warming Obsession Is Dangerous
By Ed Rogers, Washington Post, Apr 22, 2015
Incredibly, in Sunday’s weekly video address, President Obama said, “Today, there is no greater threat to our planet than climate change.”
John Kerry: On Earth Day, time running out for climate change
By John Kerry, USA Today, Apr 22, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: It has been happening for at least 1.5 billion years, why is the time running out now?]
Sec. Vilsack: ‘We Have To Get Ahead’ of Climate Change by Reducing CO2
By Barbara Hollinsworth, CNS News, Apr 24, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Link to USDA Fact Sheet: USDA’s Building Blocks for Climate Smart Agriculture & Forestry – Fact Sheet
By Staff Writers, USDA, No date
[SEPP Comment: Climate change has been on-going long before human activity emitted CO2 As clueless as John Kerry?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
A Clear Case of Selective Data Usage from the U.S National Climate Assessment
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger, CATO, Apr 22, 2015
Why Progressives Believe Global Warming
By William Briggs, His Blog, Apr 27, 2015
[SEPP Comment: A look at some of the logical arguments
Freeman Dyson: By the Book
By Staff Writer, New York Times, Sunday Book Review, Apr 16, 2015 [H/t Bruce Handler]
Climate Change: The Single Greatest Misinformation Campaign in World History
By Stephen Moore, CNS News, Apr 24, 2015 [H/t Charles Schafer]
You Ought to Have a Look: Science Round Up—Less Warming, Little Ice Melt, Lack of Imagination
By Patrick Michaels CATO, May 1, 2015
The Geek Orthodox Creed of Warmism
By Michael Kile, Quadrant, May 2, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Are climate skeptics are considered similar to heretics in Islam?]
I am a climate skeptic who believes in global warming
By Richard J. Petschauer, WUWT, Apr 25, 2015
Polar bears barely survived the sea ice habitat changes of the last Ice Age, evidence suggests
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 21, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Global cooling may be more harmful to polar bears than global warming?]
Swiss Weekly Calls Temperature Rise A “Propaganda Trick” (Not A Trend) …”We Are Making A Warming”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 1, 2015
On to Paris!
Elitism: “17 Prominent Scientists” Express Contempt For Democracy…Demand Policymaking Power
By Dennis Ambler and Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 23, 2015
India to voluntarily reduce emission intensity of GDP
By Staff Writers, Press Trust of India, Apr 28, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Converting from traditional fuels to coal will do that.]
Social Benefits of Carbon
In Praise of CO2
By Robert Carter, NIPCC in Quadrant, Apr 29, 2015
Review of About Face! Why the World Needs More Carbon Dioxide: The Failed Science of Global Warming.
By Arthur Hughes, Madhav Khandekar & Cliff Ollier,
Two Harbors Press, Minneapolis USA, 313 pp.
No developed-developing countries divide on climate change: US
By Staff Wroters. The Tribune, India, Apr 20, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Warmists who denied the pause now claim to explain it
By Andrew Bolt, Herald Sun, AU, Apr 24, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Seeking a Common Ground
Bjorn Stevens in the cross-fire
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 22, 2015
Ethics of climate expertise
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 30, 2015
Making (non)sense of climate denial
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc, Apr 28, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Trying to make sense from the writing of John Cook – the last 97% claimer – and Stephan Lewandowsky. Or why certain research efforts are not worth the time of day?]
Response From Philip Bratby
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 1, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The physicist with many years of experience in fluid flow, heat transfer and thermal-hydraulics states: “Indeed, it would be inconceivable to me that a chaotic, non-linear, multi-variate, open system such as the earth’s atmosphere, could be stable and would not change.”]
The Right Health Investments
By Bjørn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Apr 23, 2015
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Half a Century of Diurnal Temperature Range Changes in China
Shen, X., Liu, B., Li, G., Wu, Z., Jin, Y., Yu, P. and Zhou, D. 2014. Spatiotemporal change of diurnal temperature range and its relationship with sunshine duration and precipitation in China. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 119: 13,163-13,179. Apr 29, 2015
“They [the findings] are important because cold temperature extremes are responsible for far more deaths around the world than are warm temperature extremes, as may be seen by perusing the materials we have posted under the heading of Health Effects (Temperature – Hot vs. Cold Weather) in our Subject Index. And this finding suggests that if the Earth were to continue to warm as it did over much of the 20th century, this phenomenon should lead to a significant reduction in temperature-related human mortality.”
Evaluating AGCM Simulations of Tropical Temperature Trends
Flannaghan, T.J., Fueglistaler, S., Held, I.M., Po-Chedley, S., Wyman, B. and Zhao, M. 2014. Tropical temperature trends in Atmospheric General Circulation Model [AGCM] simulations and the impact of uncertainties in observed SSTs. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 119: 13,327-13,337. Apr 29, 2015
In light of this stunning finding, [significant differences in sea surface data sets which induce large difference in upper tropospheric temperature trends] Flannaghan et al. go on to conclude that “systematic uncertainties in SSTs need to be resolved before the fidelity of climate models’ tropical temperature trend profiles can be assessed.” And we concur, for first things first is a well-worn formula for success, which even the most complex of mathematical efforts must be careful to follow.”
An 8000-Year Environmental History of Eastern North Greenland
Wagner, B. and Bennike, O. 2015. Holocene environmental change in the Skallingen area, eastern North Greenland, based on a lacustrine record. Boreas 44: 45-59 Apr 28, 2015
“So, at a time, today, when the air’s CO2 concentration is approximately 400 ppm, it is still much cooler in Greenland than when the HTM [Holocene thermal maximum] held sway and the air’s CO2 concentration was a mere 250 ppm. And, despite that extended period of warmer temperatures during the HTM, the Greenland ice sheet did not disappear.”
Mammals — Summary
Effects of global warming and atmospheric CO2 enrichment on Earth’s mammals
By Staff Writers, CO2 Science, Apr 27, 2015
“In concluding this summary of the possible fates of many of Earth’s mammals in a future CO2-enriched and potentially warmer world, it is becoming ever more clear — from a large number of scientific studies — that the many positive proven responses of a great diversity of species greatly outweigh the negative imagined responses that have long been predicted by the world’s climate alarmists.”
Models v. Observations
Duke study finds ‘natural variability’ impacts global warming
By Justin Quensinberry WNCN, Apr 21, 2015
Link to paper: Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise
By Brown, Li, Cordero and Mauget, Nature, Apr 21, 2015
Global Warming More Moderate Than Worst-Case Models
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Apr 25, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
The bumper sticker should read: “If it warms, it’s our fault; if it doesn’t warm, it’s Nature at Work!”
Fungi & Nitrous Oxide, The Forgotten Greenhouse Gas
By Dog Hoffman, The Resilient Earth, Apr 21, 2015
Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation: Part 3
By Nicholas Lewis, Climate Audit, Apr 20, 2015
Satellite Data Sets and Monthly Trends Defy NOAA and NASA Claims
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, May 1, 2015
The Warmest Start Ever?
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Apr 21, 2015
Geomagnetic 44-month cycle seen in the climate data
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Apr 30, 2015
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Version 6.0 of the UAH Temperature Dataset Released: New LT Trend = +0.11 C/decade
By Roy W. Spencer, John R. Christy, and William D. Braswell, Spencer’s Blog, Apr 28, 2015
Link to paper: Version 6.0 of the UAH Temperature Dataset Released: New LT Trend = +0.11 C/decade
By Roy W. Spencer, John R. Christy, and William D. Braswell, PDF, Apr 28, 2015
New UAH Lower Troposphere Temperature Data Show No Global Warming for More Than 18 Years
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Apr 29, 2015
Measurement Issues — Surface
Inquiry Launched Into Global Temperature Data Integrity
By Staff Writer, GPWF, Apr 25, 2015
Details on the Inquiry: The International Temperature Data Review Project
By Staff Writers, Its Web Site, Accessed Apr 27, 2015
Did exaggerated records make global warming look worse? Scientists to investigate whether ‘adjusted’ temperatures skewed data
By David Rose, Daily Mail, UK, Apr 26, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Panel To Probe Homogenisation’s Role In Warming Trend
By Graham Lloyd, The Australian, Via GWPF, Apr 27, 2015
Science Project Can Finally Answer Global Warming Question
Editorial, IBD, Apr 27, 2015
US Major Hurricane Drought Longest On Record
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That
Full dams, but still no sorry from Flannery
By Andrew Bolt, Herald Sun, AU, May 1, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Claim: Climate change ‘may’ be responsible for the abrupt collapse of Tibetan civilization around 2000BC
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 29, 2015
North Pacific Update: The Blob’s Strengthening Suggests It’s Not Ready to Depart
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Apr 21, 2015
Sea-Level Rise Poses Hard Choice for Two Neighborhoods: Rebuild or Retreat?
By Emily Gertz, Takepart.com, Apr 24, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Research Highlight: Arctic Sea Ice Loss Likely To Be Reversible
Scenarios of a sea ice tipping point leading to a permanently ice-free Arctic Ocean were based on oversimplified arguments
By Robert Monroe, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Apr 22, 2015 [H/t WUWT]
Link to article: How Climate Model Complexity Influences Sea Ice Stability
By Wager and Eisenman, Journal of Climate, Ahead of print
“We found that two key physical processes, which were often overlooked in previous process models, were actually essential for accurately describing whether sea ice loss is reversible,” said Eisenman, a professor of climate dynamics at Scripps Oceanography. “One relates to how heat moves from the tropics to the poles and the other is associated with the seasonal cycle. None of the relevant previous process modeling studies had included both of these factors, which led them to spuriously identify a tipping point that did not correspond to the real world.”
[SEPP Comment: The assumption, made by many global warming alarmists that the Arctic sea ice loss was not reversible, was contrary to the historic record.]
AMO fingered in newly discovered 200 year bipolar disorder lag
Researchers find 200-year lag between climate events in Greenland, Antarctica
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 30, 2015
Link to paper: Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age
By WAIS Divide Project Members, Nature, Apr 30, 0215
Gravity data show that Antarctic ice sheet is melting increasingly faster
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Apr 30, 2015
Link to paper: Accelerated West Antarctic ice mass loss continues to outpace East Antarctic gains
By Harig and Simons, Earth and Planetary Science Letters. Apr 1, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Reports on the findings mistakenly assume that the east and west Antarctic ice sheets are homogenous. They are not. The former is gaining ice and the latter is losing it. The west Antarctic ice sheet is influence by geothermal activity. This should not be interoperated as ice loss due to enhanced atmospheric CO2.]
Melt season update – Bering Sea ice abundant & Davis Strait ice 2nd highest since 1971
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 24, 2015
Another thing more worrisome than global warming: Yellowstone super-volcano has 4x more magma than once thought
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 23, 2015
Chile’s Calbuco volcano erupts for third time
By Miguel SANCHEZ
Santiago (AFP) April 30, 2015
Satellite: Calbuco Volcano Leaves Behind Massive Ashfall
By Roy Spencer, Global Warming, Apr 23, 2015
Memo to our cousins at the American Physical Society: time to embrace reality
By Christopher Monckton, WUWT, Apr 20, 2015
Newsweek Disgracefully Links the Mt Everest Tragedy to Rising CO2
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Apr 29, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Pollution (and solutions)
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Apr 17, 2015
When drilling isn’t drilling
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Apr 24, 2015
German DWD Weather Service’s Own Data Contradict Its Alarmist Claims Of “Uninterrupted Warming”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 29, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Academic demands totalitarian response to AGW
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, May 1, 2015
Are you now or have you ever been a climate contrarian?
The fury over Bjorn Lomborg Down Under confirms the intolerance of greens.
By Brendan O’Neill, Spiked, Apr 27, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Claim: Climate change ‘may’ be responsible for the abrupt collapse of Tibetan civilization around 2000BC
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 29, 2015
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Vatican and U.N. team up on climate change against sceptics
By Philip Pullella, Reuters, Apr 28, 2015
Cornwall Alliance to Pope Francis: Be Realistic for Humanity’s Sake (energy/climate policy in the balance)
By E. Calvin Beisner, Master Resource, Apr 28, 2015
If the Pope Wants to Have a Truly Moral Climate-Change Debate, Here Are a Few Ideas
By Patrick Michaels, National Review, Apr 27, 2015
This is a guest post by Cumbrian Lad, Bishop Hill, Apr 28, 2015
Pope Francis, climate change, and morality
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 29, 2015
Climate change a ‘fundamental threat’ to development: World Bank
By Staff Writers, AFP, Apr 23, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Questioning European Green
German Climate Physicist: Alternative Energy, Climate Are A “Religious Creed”…”Miles Away” From Openness
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 26, 2015
“Green is a very difficult color to wash away.”
Selling green policies
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, May 1, 2015
It’s the environment, see?
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Apr 30, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Does the recycling business require high energy prices?]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Eco-Imperialism: Not So Fast, states NYT (eco-modernism dawning)
By Paul Georgia, Master Resource, Apr 24, 2015
Eco-Marxism: Deception 2.0
By Peter Wood, American Thinker, Apr 24, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Peter Wood is an anthropologist and president of the National Association of Scholars
Earth Day: Environmental Protection Shouldn’t Hurt Economy
By Oren Cass, IBD, Apr 21, 2015
Home ministry cancels registration of 9,000 foreign-funded NGOs
By Aloke Tikku, Hindustan Times, Apr 28, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Obama’s Solar Jobs Promise Will Cost Taxpayers
Editorial, IBD, Apr 20, 2015
Renewable and Sustainable Crony Capitalism
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Apr 28, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
EPA Could Put Nearly 300,000 Jobs On The Chopping Block
By Matt Vespa, Townhall, Apr 16, 2015
Is the Government Buying Science or Support? A Framework Analysis of Federal Funding-induced Biases
By David E. Wojick and Patrick J. Michaels, CATO, Apr 30, 2015
Die Grünshirts Parachute Into Parkville
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, AU, Apr 28, 2015
In a further demonstration that no alarmist undertaking is too improbable for public funds to underwrite, the climate-change careerists at Melbourne University have teamed up with their equally error-prone counterparts in Potsdam. Bear this in mind when the next vice-chancellor cries poor.
[SEPP Comment: The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) to Melbourne University link.]
The U.S. Air Force Turns to a Foreign Weather Forecasting System
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 21, 2015
The Political Games Continue
Senators [committee] vote to block EPA’s use of ‘secret science’
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Apr 28, 2015
Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) said the bill is “insane. It’s just a joke.” Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called it “laughable.”
[SEPP Comment: What is a joke on the American public is that EPA has been able to establish policy by using assertions in studies hidden from public view by calling it science.]
McConnell confronts EPA chief on climate rules
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Apr 29, 2015
When Is “the Law” Violated Under the Constitution, Anyway?
By Donald Devine, Library of Law, Apr 28, 2015 [H/t Cooler Heads}
[SEPP Comment: There are unresolved historical and legal issues regarding the Madison and Jefferson resolutions. However, the resolutions were stark compared to what McConnell suggests.]
The pottiest and costliest mistake of our times: Forget his tax and spend plans. Red Ed’s climate change law in the Brown years will cost £50,000 per home, says CHRISTOPHER BOOKER
By Christopher Booker, Daily Mail, Apr 29, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
EPA reveals more than 1,000 pages of texts, phone records from chief
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Apr 23, 2015
Only innovation can save us
Election campaigns ignore what matters most – technological change
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Apr 24, 2015
McConnell has new argument for EPA climate rule
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Apr 30, 2015
They say that the Clean Air Act restricts states from entering into multi-state agreements to comply with the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) rule, unless Congress approves each agreement.
Oklahoma takes aim at climate plan
By Devin Henry, The Hill, Apr 30, 2015
Oklahoma governor rules out state plan for EPA carbon pollution regulations
Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin issued an executive order directing state agencies not to come up with a plan to deal with upcoming federal rules for carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. Fallin said the EPA’s Clean Power Plan plan was an overreach that went beyond the agency’s legal authority.
By Paul Monies, The Oklahoman, Apr 30, 2015
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Should Carbon Tax Revenue Be Used to Retire Debt?
By Jerry Taylor, Niskanen Apr 28, 2015
The carbon tax, and economists as experts and politicians
By Benjamin Zycher, AEI, Apr 28, 2015
The free market wins again – carbon auction price is $14 per ton — up to 300 times cheaper than Carbon Tax
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 24, 2015
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Texas Moves to Abolish Renewable Energy Mandates (but much damage has been done)
By Josiah Neeley, Master Resource, Apr 29, 2015
Wind, in particular, has been the recipient of billions in subsidies over the course of several decades. If the technology can’t survive on its own by now, there’s no reason to think that a few more years of subsidies would change that.
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA Blames Global Warming for Asthma
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Apr 20, 2015
Energy Issues – Non-US
Electricity for Africa
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Apr 28, 2015
Europe Versus Gazprom
By Nina Khrushcheva, Project Syndicate, May 1, 2015
Japan’s Green Energy Push Hits Wall
By Staff Writers, American Interest, Apr 21, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Will renewables cause stability problems on the grid for this utility?]
Energy Issues — US
Energy Security Must Include Reliable Power
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Apr 27, 2015
On Earth Day, let’s appreciate our fossil fuel energy treasures that come from the Earth’s natural environment
By Mark Perry, AEIdeas, Apr 21, 2015
Oil slump may deepen as US shale fights Opec to a standstill
Continental’s Harold Hamm says US shale industry has ‘only begun to scratch the surface’ of vast and cheap reserves, driving growth for years to come
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph, UK, Apr 22, 2015
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production in Federal and Non-Federal Areas
By Marc Humphries, Congressional Research Service, Apr 3, 2015
U.S. Natural Gas Resources Reach Historic Heights
By Staff Writers, IER, Apr 21, 2015
Arctic Oil Potential
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 24, 2015
Link to report: Arctic Potential
By Staff Writers, National Petroleum Council, Mar 27, 2015
China discovers 27 bcm of exploitable shale gas in 2014: Reports
By Staff Writers, Reuters, Apr 17, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Return of King Coal?
As U.S. Shutters Coal Plants, China and Japan are Building Them
By Staff Writers, IER, Apr 23, 2015
Coal to remain important mainstay fuel for India and Japan’s energy plans
By Staff Writers, Business Standard, India, Apr 29, 2015
Coal Still Tops In UK
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 30, 2105
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
We’ve come a long way since the Gulf spill
By Randall Luthi, Washington Examiner, Apr 21, 2015
Obama cracks down on oil trains
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, May 1, 2015
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Germany’s Nuclear Drawdown Costs Skyrocket
By Staff Writers, American Interest, Apr 24, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
What should renewables pay for grid service?
By Planning Engineer, Climate Etc. Apr 21, 2015
Wind turbines’ CO2 savings and abatement cost
By Peter Lang, Climate Etc. Apr 27, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Among other issues, addresses Australia’s Renewable Energy Target (RET).]
Wind power industry touts strong growth
By Devin Henry, The Hill, Apr 30, 2015
Link to market report: U.S. Wind Industry First Quarter, 2015
By Staff Writers, American Wind Energy Association, Apr 29, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Texas, California and Iowa lead the way in unreliable power – virtually nothing in the southeast United States.]
What’s the True Cost of Wind Power?
By Randy Simmons, Newsweek, Apr 11, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
How Intermittent Is Wind Power?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 1, 2105
Solar energy project killed 3,500 birds
By Devin Henry, The Hill, Apr 24, 2015
[SEPP Comment: About the same number as counted and attributed to the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in a year following the spill.]
Work begins on nation’s first offshore wind farm
By Devin Henry, The Hill, Apr 27, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Hardly an Apollo 11 moment as claimed by the Massachusetts Sierra Club. No estimates of cost or reliability.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Battery Powered Vehicles Lagging
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 21, 2015
Is There a Future for Battery Powered Vehicles?
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 28, 2015
Carbon Sequestration: Distorted Policy Results From Distorted IPCC Science
By Tim Ball, WUWT, Apr 20, 2015
The Duck Speaks
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 30, 2015
Superrich Behind California’s ‘Grassroots’ Green Movement
By Steven Malanga, IBD, Apr 27, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Energy Quote of the Day: ‘Heads Should Roll on This’
By Pete Danko, Breaking Energy, Apr 17, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Fortunately, Senator Barbara Boxer is retiring.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
The White House is Lying About Climate Change and Health
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Apr 22, 2015
Greens extend estimated point of no return – by 25 years!
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 22, 2015
Seven Big Failed Environmentalist Predictions
By Robert Tracinski, The Federalist, Apr 24, 2015
[SEPP Comment: A look at failed predictions that captured the environmental movement and the political processes used to spread the alarm.]
“Buy locally”: Horse and buggy advice from the green movement
By Steve Goreham, Communities Digital News, Apr 22, 2015
Other Scientific News
Puzzle in the Atlantic
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 25, 2015
HumanProgress.org (Cato’s ‘Julian Simon’ data bank expanded, updated)
By Marian Tupy, Master Resource, May 1, 2015
[SEPP Comment: As Western leaders warn of largely imaginary grave threats to humanity by using projections from unvalidated computer models, the actual data show improvements in human well-being.]
Discovered deep under Antarctic surface: Extensive, salty aquifer and potentially vast microbial habitat
Press Release by Peter West, NSF, Apr 28, 2015
Other News that May Be of Interest
Is North Korea Cutting Down All Its Trees?
By Roy Spencer, Global Warming, May 1, 2015
Welcome to the Everglades,
Editorial, Miami Herald, Apr 21, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Send money.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Bad Science Of The Year Nominee: Global Warming To Cause Bad Music
By William Briggs, His Blog, Apr 24, 2015
Claim: CO2 causes plant viruses to spread more easily
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 24, 2015