The Week That Was: 2015-02-14 (February 14, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
US National Security – Threat of Climate Change: The Obama Administration continues to insist that global warming/climate change is a threat to US National Security. Such a claim can be used to expand the powers of the presidency. The President has already ordered that government agencies to consider impacts of what the government states the impacts of climate change in funding major government-funded improvements, particularly rising sea levels, into account on federally funded projects, such as military installations, roads, hospitals, etc. The underlining assumption in all this is that human-caused carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are the principal cause of global warming, also called climate change, climate disruption, climate chaos, or whatever is fashionable at the moment. In a television broadcast, Susan Rice, the US National Security Advisor, declared climate change is an existential threat. Perhaps, she assumed it was human caused. But, those who re-call existential literature may remember it to be vague and confused.
It is worthwhile to consider the development of official climate science, as proclaimed by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to realize that this existential threat has a questionable basis in physical science. The Summary for Policymakers reports on the Physical Science is particularly useful, because it claims to summarize the knowledge in the physical science. Following the publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5) in 2013, Fred Singer presented a thumbnail sketch of IPCC science as an empirical science.
Singer’s sketch of the Assessment Reports discusses the following:
1. 1990 – AR1 assumed the 1910 to 1940 warming was caused by humanity, prior to significant human emissions of carbon dioxide. The assumption cannot be substantiated.
2. 1996 – AR 2 The hotspot. A warming trend on the surface, whatever the cause, should produce a strong warming trend (not greater temperatures) in the atmosphere above the tropics centered at 10 kilometers. No one can find it. Santer produced it by selecting only a subset of the available data – in the middle. This is a classic case of cherry-picking.
3. 2001 – AR 3 Mr. Mann’s “hockey-stick.” The statistical techniques used produce the distinct “hockey-stick” from random noise. The hockey-stick has not been mentioned in subsequent reports by the IPCC.
4. 2007 – AR 4. Circular argument – lack of agreement on cause of no warming
This lack of agreement is due to the fact that their models ignore major forcings — both from variations of solar activity and from changes in ocean circulation.
They then use the following trick. They re-plot their model graph, but without an increase in greenhouse gases; this absence of forcing now generates a gap between this unforced model and the reported warming. Then they turn around and argue that this gap must be due to an increase in greenhouse gases. It appears to me that this ‘proof’ may be circular. Even if the reported late-20th-century surface warming really exists (it is absent from the satellite and radiosonde records), the IPCC argument is not convincing.
5. 2013 – AR5 Same as AR 4.
The circular argument can be explained a bit further. If A + B = 10. 10 is assumed to be correct. However, we cannot solve for the value of A without establishing the value of B. At least one of the values needs to be established. The procedures used by the IPCC fail to empirically establish either the values of human influence on climate or the values of natural influence on climate. As the Apollo veterans who formed The Right Climate Stuff research team observed, we cannot successfully model the human influence on climate without successfully modeling the natural influences on climate.
The Administration is declaring climate change, which has been occurring for hundreds of millions of years, long before humanity, a threat to national security based on a discipline that uses unsubstantiated assumptions, physical evidence that no one can find, an invalid statistical technique producing biased results, and circular arguments. No wonder the US National Security Advisor calls the threat existential. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and http://www.therightclimatestuff.com/SummaryPrelimReport.html
Quote of the Week: “…and so much has been said about climate warming that there will be an awkward situation if the warming doesn’t happen or not to the extent predicted.” From Hubert Lamb, 1994 [H/t Bernie Lewin]
Number of the Week: 14.8%
Turning Useful Science Into Politics. A skilled writer and an accomplished historian, Bernie Lewin traces his view on how a small group inside the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia turned the CRU from a significant scientific undertaking into a political instrument, which subordinated empirical science to ideology. As explained by Lewin, Hubert Lamb, the founder of the CRU, objected to the concept that human emissions of CO2 (a Greenhouse Gas) was the dominant cause of global warming, since called climate change.
Lamb devoted his career to using data to develop understanding how climate changes over periods of decades and centuries. He recognized that before the human influence on global climate can be determined, the historic changes must be understood. As described by Richard Lindzen in the introduction, this descriptive approach was opposed by those who embraced the fashionable quantitative approaches of computer modeling.
As described by Lewin, Hubert Lamb could be classified as a skeptic. He recognized that greenhouse gases have an effect, but natural influences must be understood. His successors changed the overall attitude of the CRU to receive massive amounts of funding, from the US as well as the British government, by frightening people on the possibility of drastic effects of human activities.
“…and so much has been said about climate warming that there will be an awkward situation if the warming doesn’t happen or not to the extent predicted.” (1994) (p 36)
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Going Personal? Writing in the UK Telegraph, Christopher Booker made certain comments to which some members of the climate community took exception. One remark concerned the remarkable elimination of polar ice in a press release by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA-GISS). The other remark concerned the adjustments to the surface data, as published by NOAA, NASA, and the Berkeley Earth unit (BEST).
When compared to the unsubstantiated allegations by Oreskes and Conway in The Merchants of Doubt, which is widely embraced by the Climate Establishment, Booker’s comments did not appear to be too outrageous or too personal. However, to their credit, global warming/climate change skeptics defended adjustments to the temperature record. Judith Curry posted comments by members of the BEST team justifying their adjustments. Luboš Motl and Patrick Michaels defended adjustments. Michaels asserts that, globally, the adjustments do not have much of an impact. However, Michaels does not mention that, based on previous presentations by Anthony Watts, and Joseph D’Aleo, adjustments to the US records may have significant impact, namely in cooling the hot decade of the 1930s. None of this explains why the raw records disappear after, largely unexplained, government adjustments are made.
The disappearance of the Arctic sea ice is another matter. “Even though Antarctic sea ice reached a new record maximum this past September, global sea ice is still decreasing,” said Claire Parkinson, author of the study and climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. “That’s because the decreases in Arctic sea ice far exceed the increases in Antarctic sea ice.”
“This doesn’t mean the sea ice loss will continue to accelerate,” Parkinson said. “After all, there are limits. For instance, once all the Arctic ice is gone in the summer, the Arctic summertime ice loss can’t accelerate any further.”
These are misleading statements, giving the false impression of continues sea ice decline. Over the 35 year period from 1979 to 2013, total sea ice has declined. As Michaels points out, the decline in Arctic sea ice stopped about eight years ago. Total sea ice has been increasing for 9 years. This is similar to saying: “We had a great mission, too bad the lander crashed.” See links under Measurement Issues and Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice.
Why Surface? The Booker flap brings up the question why do government entities continue to use surface temperature data when we have over 30 years of far more comprehensive atmospheric data that is independent verified by data from weather balloons? (BEST is independently funded.)
Poor Historic Record: One TWTW reader wrote he is reading The Third Horseman by William Rosen, who states there is little or no physical evidence of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) in the Southern Hemisphere.
The NIPCC reports contain such studies. In addition, the stock answer is: There is little physical evidence of the MWP in the Southern Hemisphere because what little land there is in the Southern Hemisphere is largely in the Tropics. Compareing Hemisphere land masses north and south of 40º is revealing. The latitude is arbitrary, but illustrative.
Including Alaska, about 50% of the US and all of Canada is beyond 40º N. Except for Greece and 2/3rds of Portugal, and 50% of Spain, virtually all of Europe is beyond of 40º N. So is Russia, and much of central Asia. In the Southern Hemisphere, only New Zealand has more than 50% of its land mass beyond 40º S. About one-third of Chile and Argentina and nothing in Africa is beyond 40º S. If the MWP and Little Ice Age (LIA) were caused by changes in intensity of the sun’s rays hitting the earth, either by changes in the earth’s orbit or changes in cloud cover, we would expect that the changes would be most pronounced in the upper latitudes where slight variations in sun-light and other solar energy can make a big difference.
Undersea Volcanoes: Ian Plimer, and others, have suggested that undersea volcanoes may have a greater influence on climate than generally recognized. A study published in Geophysical Research Letters examines undersea volcanoes, a topic essentially ignored in the past. People have always presumed that undersea volcanoes are in kind of a steady-state equilibrium, erupting now and then but in no particular pattern. This study says: No! There’s a real pattern and it’s tied to the Milankovitch cycles and the lunar-orbit (tide) cycles. Some interesting notions are raised. The original paper is something of a breakthrough, since the topic had been largely ignored. Also, as suggested by Plimer, heat from the volcanoes could have a more significant influence on sea temperatures, and global temperatures, than the carbon dioxide emitted, as discussed in the paper. See links under Changing Earth.
Misguided Journalism: Climate scientist Roy Spencer points out another questionable editorial in the New York Times by Justin Gillis. The title is a dead give-away: “What to Call a Doubter of Climate Change” [ – a realist!] Like many in the press, this reporter does not recognize there is a significant debate between those who believe CO2 emissions are the primary cause of global warming and those who disagree. Gillis falsely claims that the opposition is coming from the political right. Yet, climate skeptics may be from the left, center, or right or have no political preference. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Additions and Corrections: Several readers criticized the Asthma report TWTW cited last week. To them, the report appeared to exaggerate the impact of asthma in the US. Not knowing how asthma is diagnosed, TWTW cannot comment. However, the biggest reason the report is of interest is there seems to be little difference in incidence of asthma between urban and rural children, thus challenging the assumption by the EPA that urban poor children have a far greater incidence, and that prevalence can be attributed to coal-fired power plants. The study indicates that asthma cannot be reduced by closing coal-fired plants, thus one of the major benefits proclaimed by the EPA for doing so is highly questionable.
Continuing this logic, if the primary cause of global warming/climate change is not carbon dioxide emissions, then any benefits from stopping CO2 emissions will vanish, particularly when considered against the benefits of CO2 to agriculture, humanity, and the environment. See http://www.jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(14)01676-5/abstract
Number of the Week: 14.8%: An article by Rolf Schuster translated by Pierre Gosslein from a new web site critical of wind energy states that he evaluated Germany’s wind energy feed-in data for 2014. The data covered roughly 25,000 turbines in quarter-hour periods. The average production for the year was 5868 MW, or 14.8% of the installed rated-capacity. The volatility is stunning! For over 45.5% of the time the turbines produced 10% or less of their rated capacity. See link under Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind. [Note that the precision given is unjustified.]
Please note that articles that are not linked or summarized here are reproduced in the Articles Section of the full TWTW that can be found on the web site under the date of the TWTW.
1. Vaccines and Politicized Science
Jenny McCarthy knows the credibility of science is a house of cards.
By Daniel Henninger, WSJ, Feb 11, 2015
SUMMARY: Henninger discusses the extraordinary effort in bringing about the good life modern society enjoys, an effort largely forgotten. Those woman who turn against vaccination have no idea about the personal experiences of their mothers or grandmothers, to include their children with polio. There are two important lessons to be learned in the outbreaks of diseases that can be addressed by vaccination.
The first is that progress in public health, especially against infectious diseases that cause mass mortality, is really, really hard. Acquiring the knowledge needed to fight bacteria and viruses is a slog. Changing habits of behavior to accept new knowledge is difficult. Losing these gains can be catastrophic.
The second problem, which can crush such remarkable achievements, is the eroding credibility and authority of science. If too many people think even scientists are lying to them, humanity is headed toward the lemmings’ famous cliff.
Turning to global warming/climate change Henninger states: The people doing basic science should learn a well-proven truth about basic politics: Any cause taken up by politicians today by definition will be doubted or opposed by nearly half the population. When an Al Gore, John Kerry or Europe’s Green parties become spokesmen for your ideas, and are willing to accuse fellow scientists of bad faith or willful ignorance, then science has made a Faustian bargain. The price paid, inevitably, will be the institutional credibility of all scientists.
To which SEPP would add that scientific credibility is being attacked by the IPCC and its followers who claim 95% certainty in their increasingly uncertain science.
2. The EPA Annexes Sweden
Volvo is challenging the U.S. agency’s authority to regulate diesel-engine pollution across borders.
By Holman Jenkins, WSJ, Feb 10, 2015
SUMMARY: Using diesel engines from Volvo, Jenkins explains how the arbitrary power of the administrative state is expanding far beyond the borders of the US. EPA penalties are being imposed on Volvo engines not built in America, not sold in America, unlikely ever to end up in America, and not subject in any way to the EPA’s statutory jurisdiction. A major portion of the problem is litigation by companies claiming they are being treated unfairly, because other companies are using defective technology.
The claimed pollutant is NOx emissions. “Let it be said that the EPA’s NOx regulation must have done some good for the American people, though how much good is hard to know. The EPA relies on dubious extrapolations to estimate the benefits to public health. What’s more, the agency appears to have stopped publishing estimates of NOx pollution after 2005. Maybe that’s because the EPA’s focus has shifted to climate change, and its NOx regulations actually increase greenhouse emissions by increasing fuel burn.”
3. The Tesla Paradox
Visions of a $700 billion market cap but still living off subsidies.
Editorial, WSJ, Feb 12, 2015
SUMMARY: Tesla has set out to have a market valuation of $700 in 10 years – the same as Apple today. Yet, Tesla survives on subsidies, which Apple does not (by in-large). Because it produces only electric cars, Tesla receives excess “credits” for complying with federal fuel-efficiency standards and state zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates, notably in California. Tesla can then hawk its surplus credits to auto makers that fail to meet the government rules. Last year Tesla made a roughly $150 million killing from selling ZEV credits. That’s up from $130 million in 2013, $32 million in 2012, and $3 million in 2011. All told in 2014 Tesla sold about $216 million in credits, equal to about 7% of its auto sales.
Those government subsidies come on top of a $7,500 federal tax credit for each electric car sale and state rebates. Nevada and California have also bestowed upward of $1.5 billion in tax breaks on Tesla.
Capitalism needs visionaries, but its reputation suffers when companies worth billions soak middle-class taxpayers for profits. Turn off the taxpayer tap, Mr. Musk. It would earn you more friends for the long haul.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
The Sun’s activity in the 18th century was similar to that now
By Staff Writers, Sinc, Feb 2, 2015
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Reporters told to stop interviewing ‘irrelevant’ climate change critics
By Paul Bedard, Washington Examiner, Feb 10, 2015
Challenging the Orthodoxy
IPCC’s Bogus Evidence for Global Warming
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Nov 12, 2015
New Paper: Hubert Lamb And The Transformation Of Climate Science
By Staff Writers, GWPF, Feb 10, 2015
Link to paper: Hubert Lamb And The Transformation Of Climate Science
By Bernie Lewin, GWPF, 2015
Lewin on Lamb
By Andrew Mantford, Bishop Hill, Feb 10, 2015
Hubert Lamb “father of British climatology”– a skeptic worried about distorting fashions in science
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 11, 2015
Unabated Planetary ‘Warming’?
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Feb 10, 2015
Defending the Orthodoxy
A beginner’s guide to speaking Climate
By Richard Ingham, Mariette Le Roux, AFP, Feb 10, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
No shortcut for stopping climate change, federal report finds
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Feb 10, 2015
Link to press release: Climate Intervention Is Not a Replacement for Reducing Carbon Emissions; Proposed Intervention Techniques Not Ready for Wide-Scale Deployment
By Staff Writers, The National Academies Press, Feb 10, 2015
Nutty claim: Advent of geoengineering may help lower temperature of debate over climate change
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 11, 2015
National Academy of Science demands equal access to the climate trough for geoengineering
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Feb 11, 2015
Geneva talks: countries agree draft text for deal to fight climate change
Delegates from almost 200 countries adopt 86-page draft as basis for negotiations on deal to be agreed at Paris climate summit
By Staff Writers, Reuters, Feb 13, 2015
UN deal to combat global warming complicated as length of draft text balloons
By Alister Doyle, Planet Ark, Feb 12, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: The new all-encompassing philosophy, no long ignore irrelevant views, include them all.]
Claim: Researchers find new evidence of warming
New study reveals remote lakes in Ecuador are not immune to climate change
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 10, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Why should they be?]
Facing the Truth About Climate Change
Here’s a political solution to a looming environmental crisis
By Jeffrey Ball, New Republic, Feb 3, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
IPCC scientists call for focus on regional climate risks
By Megan Darby, RTCC, Feb 13, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
Shell CEO wants oil industry to join climate fight
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Feb 12, 2015
Plan B? What Happened to Plan A?
Why we shouldn’t fund geoengineering experimentation, and what we still need to learn about the climate
By Pat Mooney, Common Dreams, Feb 10, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The climate Comintern speaks
By Benjamin Zycher, The Hill, Feb 10, 2015
The Real Climate Terror
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Feb 12, 2015
Converts to scepticism / agnosticism
By Paul Mathews, The IPCC Report, Jan 8, 2015
Conflict Deaths and Global Warming
By Tom Fuller, The Lukewarmer’s Way, Feb 13, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
Failed climate predictions gets a website
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 10, 2015
Global Conning: Temperature Data Cooked in “Biggest Science Scandal Ever”
By Selwyn Duke, New American, Feb 9, 2015 [H/t DeWitt Edwards]
Polar bears out on the sea ice eat few seals in summer and early fall
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Feb 9, 2015
Polar bear biologists try – again – to blame S. Beaufort thick spring ice on global warming
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Feb 13, 2015
Scare the Heck out of the Population to create global bureaucracies
By Geoff Brown, AU-CSP, Feb 12, 2015
Social Benefits of Carbon
CO2 Deserves Gratitude, Not Disdain
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Feb 9, 2015
Problems in the Orthodoxy
U.N. Official Reveals Real Reason Behind Warming Scare
Editorial, IBD, Feb 10, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Climate summit hosts press India on emissions
By Etienne Fontaine , New Delhi (AFP), Feb 5, 2015
‘Loss & damage’ issue brings developing countries together
EU asks for historical responsibility not be accounted for in the 2015 global agreement
By Nitin Sethi, Business Standard, India, Feb 10, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Seeking a Common Ground
World Bank Urges Miners to Power Africa
By Scott Patterson, WSJ, Feb 8, 2015
Link slides from the report, The Power of the Mine
By Banerjee, et al, World Bank Group, Jan 24, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Of the eight arrangements for sourcing generation, only one identifies coal. The term, “any”, may be substitute for coal. Diesel is mentioned 4 times]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
The Ecosystem Services of Seagrass Beds in a CO2-Enriched World
Garrard, S.L. and Beaumont, N.J. 2014. The effect of ocean acidification on carbon storage and sequestration in seagrass beds: a global and UK context. Marine Pollution Bulletin 86: 138-146. Feb 11, 2015
Effects of CO2 Enrichment on Roots of a Warm Temperate Forest
Taylor, B.N., Strand, A.E., Cooper, E.R., Beidler, K.V., Schonholz, M. and Pritchard, S.G. 2014. Root length, biomass, tissue chemistry and mycorrhizal colonization following 14 years of CO2 enrichment and 6 years of N fertilization in a warm temperate forest. Tree Physiology 34: 955-965., Feb 10, 2015
“An important implication of these findings, as the six scientists write, is that “studies measuring only biomass might overlook shifts in root systems that better reflect treatment effects on the potential for soil resource uptake,” noting that their findings suggest that an increase in fine root exploration may be “a primary means for acquiring additional soil resources under elevated CO2” that “has the potential to facilitate increased soil resource uptake allowing for a sustained response to elevated CO2.” And this fact could well be one of the chief reasons for the ultimate undoing of the once highly-hyped progressive nitrogen limitation hypothesis.”
Simulating Equatorial Pacific SST, Wind Stress and Surface Fluxes
Solomon, A. 2014. Using initialized hindcasts to assess simulations of 1970-2009 equatorial Pacific SST, zonal wind stress, and surface flux trends. Journal of Climate 27: 7385-7393. Feb 10, 2015
“Once again, as in the case of the study of Tiwari et al. (2014), we thus have another set of “seven sins” running rampant throughout the climate modeling enterprise, which all continue to cry out for significant redemptive actions.”
1900-2012 Warming of Washington, Oregon, and Northern California
Johnstone, J.A. and Mantua, N.J. 2014. Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change, 1900-2012. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 111: 14,360-14,365. Feb 6, 2015
These results – quoting Johnstone and Mantua once again – suggest that “natural internally generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal Northeast Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012 and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of inter-annual and multi-decadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales.” And, therefore, as they write in their paper’s concluding paragraph, “based on the strong, physically realistic correlation between large-scale sea level pressure and sea surface temperature indices from 1900 to 2012, we conclude that dynamical forcing accounts for virtually all of the observed warming in Northeast Pacific Arc sea surface temperature over the 1900-2012 period as well.”
Agriculture (Species: Strawberry) – Summary
By Staff Writers, CO2 Science, Feb 5, 2015
“And multiple reviews posted on our CO2 Science website indicate these benefits are realized in many, many other crops, endowing humanity with a highly optimistic future. It is therefore a shame when government organizations such as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency fail to sufficiently acknowledge such benefits and instead forge ahead with efforts that would mute them when they should be promoting them.”
Models v. Observations
Cooling the Climate Models: Briggs, Legates, Monckton, Soon Go Simple
By Sterling Burnett, Master Resource, Feb 9, 2015
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update
By William Briggs, His Blog Feb 13, 2015
Recent Paper Ends Abstract with “…Model Might Be Too Sensitive to the Prescribed Radiative Forcings”
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Feb 11, 2015
The fiddling with temperature data is the biggest science scandal ever
New data shows that the “vanishing” of polar ice is not the result of runaway global warming
By Christopher Booker, Telegraph, UK, Feb 7, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Berkeley Earth: raw versus adjusted temperature data
By Robert Rohde, Zeke Hausfather, Steve Mosher, Climate Etc. Feb 9, 2015
If done right, temperature adjustments are great
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Feb 9, 2015
You Ought to Have a Look: Global Temperatures and Climate Skeptics
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, Feb 13, 2015
The Great Temperature Adjustment Flap
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Feb 10, 2015
Heatwaves in Australia: in many ways they are not hotter, longer or more common. Why won’t BOM and ABC say that too?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 13, 2015
German Climate Group Discussion To Focus On 2014 Global Temperature: “No Evidence Of An Especially Warm 2014
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 11, 2015
The Met Office UK: Our Heroes
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Feb 7, 2015
The Greatest Scientific Fraud Of All Time—Part III
By Francis Menton, ICECAP, Feb 10, 2015
Why is the Northwest Warm and California Dry? Part 1.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Feb 9, 2015
Averaged over the U.S., the temperature departures from normal are about zero (warmer west, cooler east). There is no uniform warming going on–so it doesn’t appear to be associated with a large scale global warming signal. Folks on the East Coast might be complaining about global cooling with record-breaking snow hitting the Northeast, particularly around Boston.
Winters in Boston Becoming Drier
By Roy Spencer, Global Warming, Feb 12, 2015
Claim: East coast ‘Monster hurricanes’ linked to previous warm periods, current data suggests otherwise
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 12, 2015
Evidence of extreme hurricane activity may forebode stormier future for Northeast
By Angela Fritz, Washington Post, Feb 11, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: Assumes sea temperatures were warm during the dark age (The cool period following the Roman Warm Period).. See link immediately above.]
Disaster. Australian cyclone season is quiet! We have to stop that!
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Feb 12, 2015
Rare Pacific Typhoon Forms in mid-February
By Roy Spencer, Global Warming, Feb 10, 2015
Scientists confirm that Midwest floods are more frequent
Floods happening more often over past half-century
Press Release by Staff Writers, NSF, Feb 9, 2015
Climate in northern Europe reconstructed for the past 2,000 years: Cooling trend calculated precisely for the first time [H/t William Readdy]
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Jul 9, 2012
Link to paper: Orbital forcing of tree-ring data
By Esper, et al, Nature Climate Change, 2012
Evidence from warm past confirms recent IPCC estimates of climate sensitivity
By Staff Writers, Southampton, UK (SPX), Feb 09, 2015
[SEPP Comment: If the earth was warm between 2.3 to 3.3 million years ago [questionable], over the Pliocene, did human emissions of CO2 cause it? What caused it to cool afterwards into the current cold period?]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Intense Snowstorms Add Mass to Antarctic Ice Sheet
From KU Leuven, Reporting Climate Science, Jan 21, 2015
Link to paper: The role of atmospheric rivers in anomalous snow accumulation in East Antarctica
By Gorodetskaya1, et al, Geophysical Research Letters, Sep 15, 2014
Spinning Global Sea Ice
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Feb 12, 2015
Link to report: NASA Study Shows Global Sea Ice Diminishing, Despite Antarctic Gains
By Maria-José Viñas, NASA, Feb 10, 2015
Inconvenient study: Seafloor volcano pulses may alter climate – models may be wrong
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 5, 2015
Seafloor volcano pulses may alter climate
By Staff Writers, New York NY (SPX), Feb 09, 2015
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Monster hurricanes struck U.S. Northeast during prehistoric periods of ocean warming
Scientists find clues in sediment deposits on Cape Cod
By Staff Writers, NSF, Feb 11, 2015
Monster hurricanes hit northeast in past warm ocean periods
By Staff Writers, Amherst MA (SPX), Feb 12, 2015
USAToday: Megadrought may plague parts of the US.
By Staff Writers, ICECAP, Feb 14, 2015
[SEPP Comment: ICECAP exposes the weak logic from NASA-GISS]
Un-Science or Non-Science – Circular Reasoning?
Blog Row Erupts Over Nature Model Paper
By Leon Clifford, Reporting Climate Science, Feb 9, 2015
The absence of mathematics
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Feb 8, 2015
On Global Warming, The Scientific Battle Rages,
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, Feb 7, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
The Royal Society’s latest green campaign
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Feb 12, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
WH Spokesman: Climate Change Affects More People Daily Than Terrorism
By Melanie Hunter, CNS News, Feb 10, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
“The impacts of climate change will only worsen over time,” National Security Adviser Susan Rice said. What would Rice say if it were the onset of an ice age?
Bad bugs in NYC subways? Worry more about bad people (and bed bugs).
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Feb 10, 2015
Emotions, not science, rule U.S. climate change debate: study
By Chris Arsenault, Reuters, Feb 5, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The reporter demonstrates his bias by starting with an assumption that does not exist – there is a consensus humans are the cause of recent warming. The psychologist has no clue!]
Expert says EPA plan will kill Mississippians
By Emily Le Coz, Clarion Leger, Feb 2, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The reporter demonstrates her bias with the statement: “Schnare, a noted climate-change denier…”]
Mission impossible? New England’s snowstorm ‘bomb’ from inside a Doppler-on-Wheels
Trapped in gale-force winds for 24 hours, scientists got the data
By Staff Writers, NSF, Feb 11, 2015
“The day computer models forecast one of the most intense snowstorms in history. Meteorologists call it a “bomb.”
[SEPP Comment: The first sentence betrays ignorance, how do they know what is history, particularly when New England was covered by sheets of ice as little as 15,000 years ago.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Paper on climate scepticism published
By Paul Matthews, The IPCC Report, Feb 11, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: An on-line poll of questionable value, except for the rational given by respondents.]
Study: Global warming skeptics know more about climate science
By Maxim Lott, Fox News, Feb 12, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Another dreary poll, but with different results. The Union of Concerned Scientists immediately politicized7 the results. The question is: Now that global warming has stopped, what physical evidence to you have to show that the late 20th century was unusual and caused by carbon dioxide?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
New Paper: Unprecedented 21st-century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Feb 13, 2015
Maybe at some time in the future, probably not in my lifetime, the climate science community will come to realize that model outputs showing “unprecedented” future values are indications the models are fatally flawed.
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Political, Scientific Chicanery Underlies Global Warming Alarmism
Soviet-style disinformation campaigns dominate the debate.
By Bob Carter, Willie Soon, and Tom Harris, PJ Media, Feb 8, 2015
[SEPP Comment: As students of propaganda realize, disinformation campaigns are not limited to the Soviet Union, but can occur in any society.]
Vilifying realist science – and scientists
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Feb 11, 2015
“Ultra-rich Green groups attack climate scientists who question “manmade climate chaos claims.”
What to Call a Doubter of Climate Change
By Justin Gillis, NYT, Feb 12, 2015
Reports on a petition by an advocacy organization, Forecast the Facts.
What to call a NYT reporter of climate science?
By Roy Spencer, Global Warming, Feb 13, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Is Gillis a promoter of all-powerful government authority – a dictatorship?]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Hartnett-White to Stanford University on Coal Divestment
By Kathleen Hartnett White, Master Resource, Feb 10, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Making the poor pay for “feel-good” investment strategies.]
Expanding the Orthodoxy – Climate a National Security Issue
By John Kerry, Project-Syndicate, Feb 10, 2015
“I see countries working together to negotiate new and far-reaching trade pacts, covering some 70% of global GDP. I see the world working together to end the Ebola pandemic. I see work to achieve a peaceful resolution to the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program. I see cooperation to reach an ambitious global agreement on climate change, and to curb the strife in places like the Central African Republic, Colombia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.”
Questioning European Green
Analysis Shows Wind And Solar Power In Europe Is On Average 16 Times More Expensive Than Gas-Fired Power!
A comparison of both the capital cost and energy production effectiveness of renewable energy in Europe.
By Ed Hoskins (Some editing by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Feb 8, 2015
Wind Farm Loophole Costs Households £400 Million
By Ben Webster, The Times, Via GWPF, Feb 11, 2015
Link to paper: Feed-in frenzy: How a wind farm subsidy loophole is short-changing billpayers and damaging Britain’s clean energy market
By Joss Garman, Charles Ogilvie, IPPR, Feb 10, 2015
Environmental policy: not so much enviro as mental
By Christopher Monckton, WUWT, Feb 10, 2015
Energy costs in the absence of policy
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Feb 9, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Is the cost of connecting wind farms a cost of the policy requiring wind farms? Is the answer hidden in the mystery of bureaucratic numbers?]
UK Decarbonisation Plan In Crisis As Hinkley Point Is Stalled By Costs
By Tim Webb, The Times, Via GWPF, Feb 7, 2015
The Liberal War on American Energy Independence
By Arthur Herman, Hudson Institute, Jan 29, 2015
Coal Industry Sheds Tens Of Thousands Of Jobs Under Obama
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Feb 6, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Halliburton to cut 5,000 to 6,500 jobs
By Collin Eaton, Fuel Fix, Feb 10, 2015
Halliburton’s move brings the number of layoffs announced by the world’s four biggest oil field services in recent weeks to more than 30,000 workers around the world. That’s about 9.4 percent of their combined workforce.
Obama unveils $2B goal for private investments in climate fight
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Feb 10, 2015
Pachauri: IPCC should take official role in assessing country pledges to curb climate change
By Roz Pidcock, The Carbon Brief, Feb 9, 2015 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
[SEPP Comment: Promote fear of global warming/climate change with dubious science, then profit from it.]
The Political Games Continue
Republicans sign Keystone bill, will make Obama wait on veto
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Feb 13, 2015
White House to GOP: Administration followed law for flood order
By Rebecca Shabad, The Hill, Feb 9, 2015
Climate scientist Andrew Weaver wins defamation suit against National Post
By Staff Writers, CBC News, Feb 10, 2015 [H/t Peter Salonius]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
States Can “Just Say No” to the EPA’s Carbon Rule, Expert Says
By Aaron Larson, Power Mag, Feb 20, 2015
EPA Under Fire for Concealing Controversial Scientific Data, Silencing Skeptics
By Kevin Mooney, Daily Signal, Feb 11, 2015
Link to 2014 Senate Minority Environmental and Public Works Committee Report: “EPA’s Playbook Unveiled: A Story of Fraud, Deceit and Secret Science.”
By Staff Writers, Committee on Environment and Public Works, Mar 19, 2014
Never Mind Keystone XL: EPA Regulations Are the Real Battle
By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, Feb 11, 205
“The fight over the Keystone XL pipeline is, and always has been, nothing but a symbol …”
DOE proposes stricter efficiency standards for gas furnaces
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Feb 11, 2015
EPA’s Impact on New Mexico: Higher Prices, Fewer Jobs
By Staff Writers, NCPA, Feb 6, 2015
Link to report: The Economic Effects of New EPA Rules on the State of New Mexico
By Staff Writers, Beacon Hill Institute/Rio Grande Foundation, January 2015
Energy Issues – Non-US
Cheap Oil for Change
By Kaushik Basu and Sri Mulyani Indrawati of the World Bank, Project Syndicate, Feb 9, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Now may be a good time for developing countries to get rid of petroleum subsidies.]
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Feb 12, 2015
Moscow’s European Gas Strategy Is No Longer Working
By Alan Riley, National Post, Via GWPF, Feb 13, 2015
Energy Issues — US
Sun Power, Part 1
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Feb 10, 2015
[SEPP Comment: According to the Department of Homeland Security: The electric grid is complex with more connection points than it had even a few years ago. The U.S. has 80,000 miles of extra-high voltage (EHV) transmission lines making up the backbone transmission grid that enables the long-haul transport of electricity for our nation. EHV transformers are critical pieces of equipment on the transmission grid. 90% of consumed power passes through a high voltage transformer at some point. If these transformers fail, especially in large numbers, therein lies a very big problem.] http://www.dhs.gov/power-hungry-prototyping-replacement-ehv-transformers
Sun Power, Part 2
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Feb 13, 2015
Americans Staying Warm the Green Way
By Walter Russell Mead and Staff, American Interest, Feb 11, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
ARPA-E Summit Takes the Pulse of Energy Technology Innovation
By Gail Reitenbach, Power Mag, Feb 11, 2015
Washington’s Control of Energy
Alaskans Have Right To Be Angry With Obama Energy Policy
By State Senator Cathy Giessel, IBD Feb 13, 2015
Alaska senators introduce bill to curb land protections
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Feb 11, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Denial of resources is a more appropriate term to land protection.]
Keystone Pipeline Draws No Objections From Pentagon After Review
By Anthony Capaccio, Bloomberg, Feb 6, 2015
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Debunking Fracking Myths
By Staff Writer, NCPA, Feb 10, 2015
Natural Gas Shale Drillers Undaunted by 32% Price Plunge
By Naureen Malik, Bloomberg, Feb 5, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Offshore-drilling debate pits economy vs. environment
By Aaron Applegate, Virginian-Pilot, Feb 12, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: Under current standards, a typical false dilemma.]
U.S. burns record natgas to generate power in January
By Scott Disavino, Reuters, Feb 10, 2015
“Power generators used an average 23.1 billion cubic feet per day of gas in January 2015, up 13 percent from the 20.5 bcfd average in January 2014, according to Thomson Reuters Analytics.
That was the most gas consumed by the power sector during the month of January on record, according to federal data going back to 1973.”
[SEPP Comment: In the 1970s, federal government computer models predicted that the US would run out of natural gas by the end of that century.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Germany 2014 Report Card Is In! Its 25,000 Wind Turbines Get An “F-“…Averaged Only 14.8% Of Rated Capacity!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Feb 7, 2015
Report: Solar Energy Subsidies Cost $39 Billion Per Year
Solar makes up only 0.6 percent of total U.S. electricity generation
By: Elizabeth Harrington, Washington Free Beacon, Feb 12, 2015
Link to report: Filling the Solar Sinkhole: Billions of Bucks Have Delivered Too Little Bang
By Staff Writers, Taxpayers Protection Alliance, No date
[SEPP Comment: Did not confirm the subsidies.]
Some EU countries turning cold on wind farms
By Pilita Clark, Financial Times, Feb
The rate of installations plunged by 90 per cent in Denmark; 84 per cent in Spain and 75 per cent in Italy, the association has reported in its latest annual assessment of the industry.
What Apple Just Did in Solar Is a Really Big Deal
Breaks records, slays trolls
By Tom Randall, Bloomberg, Feb 11, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
[SEPP Comment: Imagine a chip manufacturing plant on solar. No production.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
10 Quotes Concerning Energy Transformation from the ARPA-E Summit
By Gail Reitenbach, Power Mag, Feb 11, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Not one quote is in the category of “If it costs more, why do it?”]
Biomass: The Air Emissions Renewable (scientists want wood taken off of politically correct list)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Feb 11, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Highlighting inconsistent actions by greens on biomass burning.]
Ohio Corn Marketing Program to expand ethanol infrastructure
By Staff Writers, Ohio Corn Marketing Program, Feb 3, 2015 [H/t James Rust]
[SEPP Comment: Reader James Rust asks if the money from the American Lung Association to promote ethanol is part of the money the ALA receives from the EPA?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
The coming transport revolution
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Feb 13, 2015
For the great majority of journeys, the car provides the best door-to-door solution, albeit at the cost of congestion and pollution (although that is a rapidly-declining problem).
[SEPP Comment: An argument for driverless, cars, with a qualified driver onboard.]
Breaking Europe’s Climate-Change Stalemate
By Graeme Sweeney, Project Syndicate, Feb 11, 2015
CCS has been recognized at the highest political level as a part of the European Union’s 2030 Climate and Energy framework and the European Energy Security Strategy. But it is time to translate recognition into concrete action. That, in turn, requires investment incentives, improved carbon pricing, and an upgrade to the emissions trading system. A game-changing solution presupposes substantial political will; it is essential that European leaders show that they know what needs to be done.
[SEPP Comment: CCS will drive up the cost of electricity – no one knows by how much.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
CBS News in the sewer: Groundwater “teeming” with pharmaceuticals? Hardly.
By Staff Writers. ACSH, Feb 12, 2015
ACSH Trustee Paul Offit has much to say on vaccinations. And people are starting to listen
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Feb 11, 2015
America’s Lethal Fear of Science
By Abdul El-Sayed, Project Syndicate, Feb 9, 2015
The scientific method is perhaps the greatest arbiter of truth humanity has ever devised. We must trust in it to help make sense of an uncertain world, and to help us determine how best to nourish and protect our children and ourselves. When parents are allowed – or, worse, encouraged – to choose fear over science, we all pay the price.
A puppet show?
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Feb 12, 2015
Other Scientific News
Rivers may constitute 20 percent of continental water flows into oceans
By Staff Writers, Columbia SC (SPX), Feb 09, 2015
Geologists unlock mysteries of the planet’s inner core
By Staff Writers, Champaign IL (SPX), Feb 10, 2015
New Dietary Guidelines will no longer advise Americans to restrict cholesterol
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Feb 11, 2015
Other News that May Be of Interest
Tim Cook, Enough Already [President of Apple]
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Feb 12, 2015 [H/t AU-CSP]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
They sought paradise in a Scottish field — and found hunger, boredom and mosquitoes
A review of The Utopia Experiment by Dylan Evans reminds us that designs for living always end in tears, or worse
By Roger Lewis, The Spectator, Feb 14, 2015 [H/t No Tricks Zone]
“What Evans calls ‘preparing for the end of the world’ was in actuality deadly boring — getting fires going, keeping dry, trying to prevent small cuts from becoming infected and eating nothing save thick lentil soup.”
[SEPP Comment: Sustainable self-sufficiency is not easy.]
Actual PR headline: ‘Middle-aged men at highest risk of suicide after breathing poor air’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Feb 13, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The five states with the greatest increase in suicide rates: Wyoming, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Hawaii, and Vermont! None of the states are known for polluted air.]
(Frozen) Green Weenie of the Week
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Feb 14
[SEPP Comment: Cold weather is freezing Yale’s disinvestment day to stop global warming.]
North Korea says ‘Flashy Lights not Essence of Society’
By Staff Writers, Moscow, Russia (Sputnik), Feb 10, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Is this the green dream?]