So far, four storms have gotten names in the Atlantic this year. In records going back to 1851, Sept. 10 is the day when the odds are greatest there will be at least one tropical storm or hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic.
From Bloomberg:
The statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season has arrived and for the first time since 1992 there isn’t a named storm in the basin.
While forecasters are watching a pair of potential systems, neither is likely to grow into a tropical storm by the end of today. So far, four storms have gotten names in the Atlantic this year.
In records going back to 1851, Sept. 10 is the day when the odds are greatest there will be at least one tropical storm or hurricane somewhere in the Atlantic.
Still, it would be a mistake for everyone to let their guard down, said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.
“The season isn’t over and it is not shut down,” Bell said by telephone. “While it is weaker than average we already had one hurricane strike North Carolina this year. We need people to stay prepared.”
It is also too early to tell if there is a larger shift under way in the Atlantic that could herald in an era of fewer storms, he said.
Since 1995, the basin has been in the midst of what is called the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. This means it has been warmer than normal and the chances for weaker storms to grow stronger are enhanced, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
It has also marked an era where more storms have formed. For example, 21 storms got names from 1992 to 1994 and then in 1995, 19 systems reached that threshold.
Full story here
Wouldn’t too few hurricanes qualify as an extreme event? So this just adds to the growing mountain of evidence for climate change.
You are absolutely correct. I always find it amusing when people do not believe in Climate Change. It is so obviously true.
Climate stagnation! It’s the latest cataclysmic trend threatening all of humanity!
Whoever said climate didn’t change? Yes, I want names and dates .
I too would find it “amusing” is someone suggested that.
The only ones who seem to think that climate should not change are those that start pulling their hair out every time any climate variable varies either up or down and insist that it is part of a “mountain of evidence”.
More hurricanes, less hurricanes…. OMG the climate has changed. We must act now before it’s too late ( and it changes again ).
What are you two numbnuts expecting ? Would exactly the same number of hurricanes each year reassure you? Temperature “anomalies” of zero every year?
That would be a sure sign we’d screwed something up or some nutter like Wadhams is playing God with a climate engineering project.
Extremely benign.
The Pacific Ocean is remarkably quiet too. http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
All we need is one storm to hit the US, and like dandelions after a spring rain, the true believers will bounce back. They’ll be out screaming at some politician, ” I told you so, I told you so” . Think about this, next year if we get one or two, it’ll be a 100% increase !!!
Too true.
Twice too true.
Compared to the last “warm” AMO, this one is a flop. However the mileage Alarmists got out of Sandy and Irene is amazing. What would happen if a repeat of the 1938 Hurricane occurred?
I have always been a bit of an Alarmist myself, when it comes to thinking people are utterly unaware of what the 1938 hurricane was like. I worry too much about things like Boston’s skyscrapers, all built since the the 1938 hurricane. I feel people should be alerted to our past history, so they know when to get the heck away from danger.
However a second reason to study history is because Global Warming Alarmists pay no attention to it, when they call events “the worst ever.” I think it is a good thing to educate the general public about the past, as it enables them to call a bull a bull.
I get tired of trotting out all the facts and figures over and over and over, so I am just going to merely give the links to things I wrote years ago, and Anthony was kind enough to publish:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/21/hurricane-warning-mckibben-alert/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/11/02/a-reply-to-hurricane-sandy-alarmists/
Caleb,
When people say it is the worst ever , most of the time they are saying the worse ever IN THEIR LIVING MEMORY. It is a pity that that little phrase is never added
I agree. However I feel some do know the history, and willfully ignore it for political reasons. They only fool themselves, if they think this is a good thing to do. Deceit always comes back to bite you, one way or another.
It’s a constant battle. The only way to defeat AGW is just keep hammering them with facts. AGW is political. They have an agenda and they have no memory of anything other than the last 10 minutes. Or if it is in their favor. I think that hurricane in 1938 is too far back in history to be relevant to AGW. As far as 1930’s climate, or the MWP or the LIA never happened. AGW can’t even remember their own arguments. There were numerous other hurricanes that roared up the east coast as strong or stronger. Putting zombies to rest is never easy.
This just goes to prove man-made climate change. Too few hurricanes constitutes an “extreme” weather event. That starts with “e” and that rhymes with “c” and that stands for “cool” which is a lot like “warm”, only different.
Do not forget just the right” number of hurricanes is also very rare. So average is in a way extreme. It appears it will be extreme all the time.
Oh my ! That mountain of evidence is going to get bigger every year then.
It’s worse than we thought.
“It has also marked an era where more storms have formed. For example, 21 storms got names from 1992 to 1994 and then in 1995, 19 systems reached that threshold.”
Well that’s great… What about since 1995? Because if the warm phase of the AMO started then, I’d think that we’d be in the midst of an onslaught of tropical systems on par with the inside cover of ManBearPig’s book.
How the storms are identified and named has changed. I wonder if the four named storms would have been named thirty forty fifty years ago?
Well… if one were to take this season and put it back in the pre-paranoia era, I’d guess that Bertha would never have attained hurricane status. All the named storms this year were well in the range of at least tropical storm intensity while close to land, so I’d say they all would have been named, with or without increased scrutiny.
But point taken, regardless.
FWIW, I don’t know what Arthur finally went down as, but it was at least transiently upgraded to category 2 as it came ashore. However, the peak wind gust recorded for the storm was just about 100 mph, and that was one measurement at one station (Point Lookout) in one place. The Saffir-Sampson scale requires winds over 95 mph sustained, and I don’t think the storm was anywhere near this. Fort Macon recorded a peak gust around 85 mph, and that is much more characteristic of the winds we actually experienced. This was a category 1 storm, not 2, as it came ashore. So I think that so far this year we have two category 1’s and two tropical storms, if people were being completely honest.
The season isn’t over yet. The Atlantic and Gulf have plenty of warm water to drive a powerful hurricane, although the first signs of cooler water are starting to inch south out near the gulf stream. The Gulf is far from as warm as I’ve seen it over the last decade plus of watching carefully as the season progresses, but it’s still in the ~30C range and has to lose another 5+C before intense hurricanes become less likely. When the water drops under 26 C (79 F) the heat engine gets a lot less fuel from the water.
What it really comes down to is shear. When the shear is high, development is slow or doesn’t happen at all. So far this year, we’ve had a lot of shear. Tomorrow, next week or next month, the upper atmosphere could go all stagnant and shear could drop, and tropical disturbances could grow into a storm large or small. However the window for 2014 to end the current all-time drought on major hurricanes in the Atlantic making landfall in the US is inexorably closing, with only six plus weeks to go. As the top article suggests, the best chance is right now — we’ll have to see how the two disturbances in the Atlantic develop. They both look like they have potential — a well defined central circulation, although in both cases very small ones. One is probably going to spin out (whatever it does) in mid-Atlantic, but the other one is very new and there is little model agreement on its track, some taking it into the Gulf and some out into the Atlantic. That one might be worth watching, if shear stays low and it hits a warm Gulf and moves slowly.
rgb
Hmmm, September is the peak month, surely just a coincidence that the next UN climate shindig is this month in New York. Never mind if no hurricane appears, the green media are creating its own gale of hot air.
Is the forecast for an extreme early season blizzard in New York?
well for the sake of peoples lives and families, i hope its another quiet season…
If we get a land falling Hurricane in October the true believers will go nuts and protest in the streets that we must do something about extreme climate change. Hurricanes just do not normally happen. Hurricanes are sent from Mother Earth to punish evil Mann for his wicked ways.
The ACE, accumulated cyclone energy peaked in the mid 1990’s.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/accumulated_cyclone_energy.asp?basin=gl
The Atlantic basin was very active in 2004/2005 but nothing exciting before or after.
This year, it’s the Eastern North Pacific that’s been active vs normal, the rest of our oceans have had below normal.ACE activity.
http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php
How long has it been now since the last major hurricane made landfall in US?
Last one was Wilma in 2005. My computation gives 3,244 days since. The longest known in the historical record.
Clue in the article, if you take the time to read it before commenting:
“The season isn’t over and it is not shut down,” Bell said by telephone. “While it is weaker than average we already had one hurricane strike North Carolina this year. We need people to stay prepared.”
JiC did ask about ‘major’ not ‘weaker than average’. Clue: read the comment before replying.
That’s great… what about a major hurricane?
Also, the Saharan Dust Layer has been quite active until recently. That has likely suppressed cyclone formation in the eastern and mid Atlantic.
Just some quite ordinary low pressure areas so far. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=316.09,20.63,568
Similarity of ACE and AMO:(needs updating for last few years)
http://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/amo_ace-no_detrend-1925adj.png?w=640
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=215
Just get me through this weekend! Then have all the storms you want!
WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said yesterday, “We know without any doubt that our climate is changing and our weather is becoming more extreme due to human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels.”
If fewer hurricanes is Monsieur Jarraud’s idea of more extreme, then bring it on.
“We know without a doubt…”
Except that our own reports say the exact opposite.
SREX 2013 and AR5 say otherwise.
So this is either gross incompetence or lies. Which is it Secretary-General Michel Jarraud ?
OH NO!
The “Climate _______” (fill in the blank) is almost unprecedented!
SO i went over to Weather Underground certain that the good Dr. Master’s would be trumpeting this current example of unprecedented weather. What do I find, some blather about the Weather channel making a fake weather report for 2050. I guess he is only interested in the right kind of unprecedented weather. Its sad because his blog used to be quite good a few years ago before he jumped the shark and went all global warming all the time.
Flashback – for the “Science is Settled” Department:
National Geographic – July 30 2007
“Hurricanes Have Doubled Due to Global Warming, Study Says”
…
The number of Atlantic hurricanes that form each year has doubled over the past century and global warming is largely to blame, according a new study.
“It hasn’t been a steady, gradual increase,” said Greg Holland, a scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.
… The most recent period has yet to stabilize, leading the authors to conclude there may be even more active hurricane seasons in the future.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/07/070730-hurricane-warming.html
Don’t forget Bill McKibben’s essay, “A Deeper Shade Of Green,” which appeared in the August, 2006 National Geographic. It gives you the impression we should be having 30 Atlantic hurricanes a year, by now.
To Stargazer:
I think you’re right about Saharan dust blown out into the Atlantic suppressing
formation of tropical storms. Certainly in a typical year the “Cape Verde conveyor”
would have fired up by now and we would see tropical depressions rolling westward
across the Atlantic like beads on a string.
I have been looking at tropical waves (red curves) coming across the tropical Atlantic, one after the other, every couple of days. Sometimes they retain an associated low pressure center that could develop into a tropical storm.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/entire_UA.gif
From Tropical Unified Surface Analysis, NOAA-NWS – Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), Simplified Tropical Unified Surface Analysis
I show this graph at http://www.oarval.org/ClimateChangeBW.htm#TUSA
NOAA’s Unified Surface Analysis pages are at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Hurricanes are still in a slump.
Look at Global Tropical Cyclone Activity – Dr. Ryan N. Maue, PhD Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee.
Last 4-decades of Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sums.
http://www.oarval.org/global_running_ace-31Aug2014-Opt.png
From http://www.oarval.org/ClimateChangeBW.htm#Maue
The original is at http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php
You can see Joe Bastardi’s Saturday Summary (9/6) at http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-september-6-2014
This meteorological outlook comes out (for free) every Saturday at http://www.weatherbell.com
And Mr. Bastardi hasn’t lowered his guard. We still could get clocked.
Tomorrow we’ll get a new two-week forecast from The Tropical Meteorology Project:
(Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach, Dr. William M. Gray. Colorado State University – CSU), at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/
Really? Tropical storm? The Tropical Discussion for today has two <30% waves shown in the Atlantic basin. One by Florida and one halfway between here in Africa. They're not even at the "invest" state and waves come off Africa constantly. I am absolutely thrilled with the lack of hurricanes and tropical storms as they are a PITA for those of us who deal with them almost every year. And no, Floridians don't let their guards down 'cause we know how accurate the hurricane forecast models really are. I’m not dogging the NHC, they do great work as long as they stick to meteorology and ignore the anthropogenic climate weasels.
Now, according to the Climateers, there should be oodles of hurricanes especially since all of that extra heat is supposedly playing Flipper in the Atlantic now poised to make more “super storms.” What will the excuse be this year…
Maybe we can blame it on the sun,,, a weak cme wiped the storms out.
http://www.space.com/27110-sun-unleashes-big-solar-flare.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+spaceheadlines+(SPACE.com+Headline+Feed)
At the very least, it is worth investigating. We have moved away from the statement you always heard, seven years ago, “The influence of the sun is too minor to effect the changes in our climate.”
And fewer cyclones in Australia
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/04/there-are-less-australian-tropical-cyclones-thanks-to-climate-change/
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/storms/tc-graph-1969-2012-bom.gif
An important factor to consider is positive/negative 200 mb velocity potential anomalies. See NOAA website http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml Executive summary;
A tropical low hits an area of rising/converging air (green isopleths) watch out for storms.
If a tropical low hits an area of sinking/diverging air (brown isopleths), forget it. You are *NOT* going to get development.
Right now, the Atlantic is covered with brown isopleths, and the Pacific has green. That’s why all the action is in the Pacific right now. The patterns tend to drift from west to east, so we could see more development occuring in the Atlantic, a week or 2 from now.
Somebody at NOAA seems to like fireplaces, judging by the colors of the graph.
I just posted this on the 200 Megaview thread, it deserves a copy here:
Hey! I just realized that during WUWT’s existence, no major hurricane has hit the United States.
Is there any limit to the power and influence of WUWT?
” said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.”
————————————————————————————————————————————————
That should give the hurricane specialists at NHC conniptions. Gerry Bell is not a hurricane forecaster, lead or otherwise. He heads up the hurricane seasonal forecast but does not do any real-time hurricane forecasting. But why should we expect accuracy from the Press? Whatever makes your ‘talking head’ sound more important and the story more sexy.
As for the African Easterly Wave train, it is keeping disturbances coming of the continent on a regular basis. However, once they reach the ocean they encounter hostile conditions their potential for development goes way down. AL91 probably has the best chance of any Cape Verde system so far this year, but it is forecast to recurve far out to sea and not affect anyone but the fishes. What we should be on the alert for is late season systems which form in the western Caribbean and are spun up from dying cold fronts that intrude upon the area in October-November. This is the sort of season where most of the activity is hybrid storms becoming tropical rather than those forming in the MDR.
Yes, they encountered much hostile dust until recently. Here is today’s Saharan Dust Layer image:
http://static.baynews9.com/images/wx/bn9/60min/SAL.jpg
A blast from the recent past:
“Tenfold increase in hurricane frequency this century, research predicts.”
Mar 18, 2013
http://phys.org/news/2013-03-tenfold-hurricane-frequency-century.html
“We find that 0.4 degrees Celcius warming of the climate corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme storm surges like the one following Hurricane Katrina. With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all ‘Katrinas’ are due to global warming,” explains Aslak Grinsted.
1992 was a real doozy! Andrew was no joke.
1992 was a terrible year and the worst disaster I had ever experienced-I hope this year is nothing like 1992.
CAGS= Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Stasis…
The new hypothesis that projects we’re all going to die of climatic boredom….
We’re doomed..
Yawn…climate change? what climate change…
http://www.bear.org/website/images/stories/images/HWB_800x600/HWB_Slide61_FS_800.jpg