From Dr. Roy Spencer and Philip Gentry at UAH. The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for August, 2014 is +0.20 deg. C, down from July’s value of +0.31 deg. C (click for full size version):
It should be remembered that during ENSO, there is a 1-2 month lag between SST change and tropospheric temperature changes, so what the SST anomaly is doing lately gives you a rough idea of how the tropospheric temperature anomaly will be changing in a couple of months.
The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 20 months are:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2013 1 +0.497 +0.517 +0.478 +0.386
2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195
2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243
2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165
2013 5 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112
2013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220
2013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.074
2013 8 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.009
2013 9 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.190
2013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.249 +0.031
2013 11 +0.193 +0.160 +0.226 +0.020
2013 12 +0.266 +0.272 +0.260 +0.057
2014 1 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.029
2014 2 +0.170 +0.320 +0.020 -0.103
2014 3 +0.170 +0.338 +0.002 -0.001
2014 4 +0.190 +0.358 +0.022 +0.092
2014 5 +0.326 +0.325 +0.328 +0.175
2014 6 +0.305 +0.315 +0.295 +0.510
2014 7 +0.304 +0.289 +0.319 +0.451
2014 8 +0.199 +0.244 +0.154 +0.060
The global image for August should be available in the next day or so here.
Popular monthly data files (these might take a few days to update):
uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt (Lower Troposphere)
uahncdc_mt_5.6.txt (Mid-Troposphere)
uahncdc_ls_5.6.txt (Lower Stratosphere)
Details:
Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.14 C per decade
August temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.20 C (about 0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.24 C (about 0.43 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.15 C (about 0.27 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.
Tropics: +0.06 C (about 0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for August.
July temperatures (revised):
Global Composite: +0.30 C above 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.29 C above 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.32 C above 30-year average
Tropics: +0.45 C above 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)
Notes on data released Sept. 2, 2014:
Temperatures in the tropics fell to nearly normal values in August, indicating a pause in the buildup to the anticipated El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event for this winter, according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville.
Compared to seasonal norms, the coldest place in Earth’s atmosphere in August was in the Wilkes Land section of Antarctica, where temperatures were as much as 3.85 C (about 6.93 degrees Fahrenheit) colder than seasonal norms. Compared to seasonal norms, the warmest departure from average in August was also in the Antarctic, just off the coast of West Antarctica by the Amundsen Sea. Temperatures there were as much as 4.83 C (about 8.69 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms.
Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line at:
As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and NASA, Christy and Dr. Roy Spencer, an ESSC principal scientist, use data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.
The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly temperature data is collected and processed, it is placed in a “public” computer file for immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.
Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any private or special interest groups. All of their climate research funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.
— 30 —
So where are the claims coming from that we have just had the hottest June / July on record?
They are not finished adjusting yet……
Snip. Sockpuppet. ~ mod.
Looks like David is back.
Hadsst3 did in fact have their hottest June and July on record, but RSS had June as the fourth warmest and July as the fifth warmest on record.
And how much of that was some kind of bias correction?
I have not looked recently but a couple of years ago when I looked in detail at HadSST “corrections”. they were already starting to nudge the recalcitrant, recent data in the “right” direction.
And “on the record” for specific temperatures means only since 1880 or so, I believe. What’s happened in 130 years does not make a trend when the big picture is 4 billion.
Since 1880 is pure fantasy. Not even since 1980 is valid.
It’s called the weather and not the climate. Otherwise the coldest [insert month] evaaaaah can be a sure sign of our cooling climate.
You must always remember this: If it is cooler than normal, that is weather. If it is warmer than normal, that is climate. Easy!
“Hottest ever” claims are based on the surface temperature data. Satellite data is of the Lower Troposphere. I don’t think anyone can make a rational argument that the surface temperature data is better for measuring the elusive “planetary temperature” – the argument that it is worse is utterly convincing, especially for anomalies.
I disregard the surface temperature data completely for climate. It’s very useful for weather though. 🙂 An unfortunate side effect of ignoring the surface data is that your record starts in the 1970’s instead of earlier. Since human activity has put more CO2 in the air after 1970 than the sum of all years before it, I think that’s a reasonable starting point.
I too take that approach. The land based thermometer record is too bastardised to be of any value and should simply be dropped.
There are only two important temperaature data sets. First sea temperature. This is the most important set given the heat capacity of the oceans, and that it is the oceans that drive climate. But whilst this is the most important data set, pre ARGO the data is worthless, and ARGO is way too short.
The other data set is the satellite data set.
There is no first order correllation betwen CO2 and temperature in the satelitte data set. Temperatures are essentially flat pre the 1998 supe El Nino, and essentially flat after that event.
The satellite data shows just a one off isolated warming event (a step change) which is not coupled to CO2, but rather it is the result of natural process, and this is important since as you say, the satellite data set covers the period where some 50% of all human CO2 emissions have taken place.
Snip. Sockpuppet. ~mod.
And neither is warming!
The world is cooling in unadjusted surface data and in at least one satellite series.
But more importantly, the world has yet to break out of its long-term cooling trend since the end of Minoan Warm Period, ie over 3000 years, or possibly the Holocene Climatic Optimum, ie ~5000 years ago.
The latest stats for 5 data sets
Maximum time for a negative slope
For GISS, the slope is flat since September 2004 or 9 years, 11 months. (goes to July)
For Hadcrut4, the slope is flat since February 2001 or 13 years, 6 months. (goes to July)
For Hadsst3, the slope is flat since March 2009 or 5 years, 5 months. (goes to July)
For UAH version 5.5, the slope is flat since June 2008 or 6 years, 2 months. (goes to July)
For RSS, the slope is flat since November 1996 or 17 years, 9 months (goes to July).
Time for no statistically significant warming
For GISS: Since October 1997: CI from -0.002 to 1.249
For Hadcrut4: Since December 1996: CI from -0.026 to 1.139
For Hadsst3: Since August 1994: CI from -0.014 to 1.666
For UAH (5.6): Since March 1996: CI from -0.001 to 2.341
For RSS: Since December 1992: CI from -0.015 to 1.821
Rank for 2014 if present anomaly average does not change
GISS: third
Hadcrut4: third
Hadsst3: first
UAH (5.5): sixth (with July); (5.6) fourth (with August)
RSS: sixth
Oh, man! I was so hoping for 0.198!
“Temperatures in the tropics fell to nearly normal values in August”
There is not such thing as a “normal” value for temperatures. I guess that should be average. Neither is the average for some arbitrary period like, say, the last 30y or 1980-2009 any more “normal” than any other period in Earth’s history with a different value.
Please stop adopting the misleading language. It infers that any deviation from this is “abnormal” and thus part of a supposedly growing problem.
Climate “normals” is a concept defined and adopted in the mid-1930s and used since on an international basis. That you do not approve won’t change that. The phrase “tilting at windmills” comes to mind.
Regardless – the word ‘usual’ would be a better indication..
The detailed maps keep on delivering from month to another:
1) temperatures have cooled most where the human caused carbon dioxide emissions are the greatest.
2) CO2 IR-absorption properties seem to influence only sparsely inhabited areas.
So…despite the presence of Mann-made hot air…things aren’t so bad after all?
The USA has suffered pronounced cooling for some years now. Our grain supply might be threatened.
Actually, this year was quoted in some places as beneficial “mild weather” with respect to grain production, which will see record harvests this year:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-22/too-much-corn-with-nowhere-to-go-as-u-s-sees-record-crop.html
Drought was the killer two years ago.
…… oh and don’t forget all that free plant food from China dropping out of the sky these days.
The CET August 2014 was on par with the Maunder Min time
2014 14.9
1661 15
1662 15
1663 15
1665 15
1677 15
1678 15
1680 15
1687 15
1688 15
1690 15
1692 15
1693 15
1698 15
1699 15
1700 15
1711 15
1712 15
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET-dMm.htm
This is a shock to me.. The NCEP Data against 30 year running means is up from July. Ryans data has been very close
August:
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_082014.png
July:
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_072014.png
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cdas_v2_hemisphere_2014.png
The SST in August is boiling in the Npac, which btw is OPPOSITE the signal for a warm US winter ( posted on weatherbell.com.. I am chomping at the bit for this winter as I am a snow and cold lover ( more snow now )) But this is real interesting to me, as they rarely so opposite in trend
Thanks for trying, Joe. But I’m sorry I can’t see the graphics you posted.
Agree that the plunge in the tropics was a surprise .51_june .45-Jul then .06 in August.
-AO’s and -NAO’s have been a strong feature in recent Winters.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/month_nao_index.shtml
If it happened again this Winter, combine that with what’s going on in the Pacific(including the potential El Nino)
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
And you have the ingredients for phasing both streams in the eastern half of the country with some big blizzards along the East Coast, like the Winter of 2009/10.
Plenty of recent changes already in ocean indices(PDO) or getting ready to change(AMO)
http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/AMO.htm
along with atmospheric indices mentioned earlier and the suns geomagnetic field/sunspot cycle as well as the earths magnetic field to make for interesting times ahead.
Thank, off to update my pages.
Thank goodness it declined for August. If it hadn’t, I would have stopped believing UAH. It has been the coolest summer across Canada in a long time and I noted the intelliweather maps for N. America looking all blue for much of it, including Mexico.
Wow!
What a summer drop!
Most of the world joined the do-nothing temperature bandwagon; All that white!
And then there’s that southern ocean wave of cold and warm spots around the Antarctic Ocean. Something similar on the north too.
I don’t really understand, why they the term “anomaly” is applied to a regular deviation from an average temperature, calculated over an arbitrary period of time starting in the middle of a particularly cold spell in the end of 1970s. “Anomaly” means “something that is not normal,” while nothing supports the assertion that temperatures in the end of 1970s were, somehow, “normal” or “standard.”
The anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average are the deviations from that climatology.
If the actual LT global temperatures repeated those in the climatology the graph would be a flat line at 0°C.
Why explain the obvious?
My question was semantic.
Spot the anomaly:
http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/image_thumb265.png?w=636&h=294
That’s exactly what I mean, thank you.
Spoilsport.
What a great graph to show people. If horizontal lines could be drawn at the believed max and min temperatures in Earth’s history (70 and 35?) it would hit home how totally unexceptional today’s temps are.
Alexander, you are absolutely right. There should be a variance built in. Then when the temperature goes above or below variance then that should be the “anomaly”.
Alexander Feht,
I thought a anomaly was simply a deviation from average. But before I made a comment, I decided to make sure.
I was surprised to find that there is no standard definition of an anomaly. There are many different definitions, including Wikipedia labeling the entire MWP an ‘anomaly’. So the term is just another way for the climate science community to make up their own meanings for words.
So I understand your point that the ‘average’ is arbitrary, because it started during an especially cold period. That makes this month’s warming blip an ‘anomaly’ — when it is not even as warm as it was in 1989! Wouldn’t that make 1989 an anomaly?
Words matter, and no area of science has changed the meaning of certain words in a more self-serving way than the climate gatekeepers. Just look at what they did with ‘forcing’…
“Words mean whatever I want them to mean”
I think that is from Alice in Wonderland isn’t it?
Slightly more seriously, scientists often take a relatively common word and impart a specific definition for their particular field. Transformation is a common word to the general public, but has a specific meaning to molecular biologists and – even worse – means a quite specific but different thing if you are referring to mammalian cells!
What I resent, is the use of the specific term for the average (another undefined term) for a particular 30 year period (normal) in general conversation because the listener will only very rarely understand that that is the definition of ‘normal’ being used. The unspoken impression is that anything outside the normal value is abnormal (clearly not the case) and can be used by unscrupulous people to engender panic.
Even worse, is the way that MSM weather forecasters take the normal and project that as being what we can or should expect for a given day – again with the unspoken implication that when we don’t get that there is something abnormal about the weather. This is not limited to the talking head presenters either, often the (supposedly) qualified meteorologists will say that the weather is warmer than we should have for this time of year.
I cringe when it’s winter and the meteorologist says it will be unseasonably cold. Is there a more appropriate season for cold weather?
El Niño is dead(once again).
The smart money is now on neutral
conditions for this fall and winter.
How do you possibly “fight” a tremendously stable climate?
Not a done deal yet. The ENSO meter is sneaking up again.
It’s not dead. It’s pining for the fjords.
I would imagine that ENSO driven land temperatures will depend on oceanic/atmospheric teleconnections that either keep that heat around or send it through the atmosphere to be lost in space. I can imagine increased water vapor losing heat to space as it changes from vapor to rain or snow. I can imagine increased heat loss due to more violent storms with clouds reaching into the stratosphere. There are several scenarios that could result in not much of a land temperature boost after an El Nino event. On the other hand there are several scenarios that would allow us the full land impact of warmer surface waters. So watch for weather patterns following an El Nino to see if that regurgitated heat will be sent up or kept around on land.
There is no possibility that any satellite data set, whether UAH versions 5.5 or 5.6 or RSS can beat the present record that was set in 1998. Even second place is out of reach in all cases. For UAH version 5.6 for example, the anomaly would have to jump from 0.199 to 0.768 and stay there for the next four months. The highest ever anomaly on version 5.6 was set in April of 1998 when it reached 0.663.
When I eyeball that graph, I see a zero trend from the start of the record up until the super El Nino; the super El Nino; then another zero trend through the present. The super El Nino caused a step change of about 0.35 degrees C.
Here it felt like 5 degrees celsius below normal. Same happened with July.
September is being warm so far, though.
Oh that’s interesting it was below normal where you are. Then again your area is known for it’s temp dips. Actually…where is “here”? Should I search through all your other posts to find out? Do you live in Urederra Spain? Should I use Vulcan mind meld to determine?
Here in Brisbane, Qld, Australia, I would say most winter nights for the last few months were ~5C below average. Although last 3 weeks have been a bit warmer.
How good is the Arctic temperature on these Satellites. Having a discussion at Climate Etc re the pause and C and W Arctic Temps. Basically they cut off the outlier cold stations only to achieve their warming but I would like to know if the satellites do cover some of this area and what they show the Arctic Temp is really doing.
“Record” ocean surface temps didn’t translate to air temps, yet.
Sometimes I wonder a bit even about sat temps as it shows just on the edge between avg and -0.5C (-1F). Here’s some info & comment about August from a very good observer in Hagerstown, Md — and his site is definitely UHI affected:
richard verney sez: “There is no first order correllation betwen CO2 and temperature in the satelitte data set.”
–As far as I know, when you are speaking of the basic correlation between two variables, with no involvement of the third (as would be in regression, partial correlation, etc.), that is a ‘zero-order’ correlation.
Someone please tell me if this is different in some fields.
The Summer in Portugal has been colder, cloudier and wetter than usual.
Oddly, that doesn’t show up in the map.
Because of that, this year we had the least number of wildfires in many years.
In the USA, annual average wildfire acres (2004-2013) through Sept. 3rd has been 6,139,221 acres. For this year the number is 2,758,113.
http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm
While this information comes from a federal agency (note the .gov) the President seems unaware.