The Week That Was: 2014-06-28 (June 28, 2014) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “I mean, I’m not a scientist either, but I’ve got this guy, John Holdren, he’s a scientist,” Obama added to laughter. “I’ve got a bunch of scientists at NASA [GISS] and I’ve got a bunch of scientists at EPA.” [H/t Judith Curry]
9th International Conference on Climate Change
July 7 – 9 — Las Vegas, Nevada
Includes the Findings of the New Report by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) Climate Change Reconsidered II
http://climateconference.heartland.org/
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A message from S. Fred Singer, PhD
Chairman, Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
We are excited to be once again co-sponsoring an International Conference on Climate Change ICCC-9 will be the ninth such assembly of nearly 1000 skeptics from all over the world These climate realists do not doubt the existence of climate change itself, but are skeptical of the simple-minded proposal to stop the climate from changing — or even to slow the process significantly — by replacing coal and oil to generate electric power and run cars with expensive and intermittent wind and solar energy …
Scientific data demonstrate convincingly that global temperatures have not risen for the past 15 or more years in spite of the measured ten percent rise in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Yet politicians and many scientists influenced by politics continue to ignore the overwhelming importance of natural causes of global warming and cooling; they –and not skeptical scientists — are the real deniers, The observed facts will always win out over artificial manmade theoretical models attempting to simulate the real climate on computers.
On behalf of the board of directors of SEPP, I congratulate The Heartland Institute for organizing ICCC-9 and for its many important publications about climate change – especially the series of reports “Climate Change Reconsidered” written by scientists of the Non-governmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) , available at www.NIPCCreport.org. We also thank the Chinese Academy of Sciences for translating and publishing some of these reports.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
THE JACKSON
The nominations and voting has ended. The results will be announced at the conference of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness in July.
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THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Supreme Court: On June 23, the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) rendered its decision on the controversial lawsuit known as Utility Air Regulatory Group v. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The litigation is a result of numerous groups filing litigation against the EPA for its scientifically questionable finding that human carbon dioxide emissions endanger human health and welfare (Endangerment Finding). There were three separate opinions expressed in the 9-0 Court’s decision with some justices concurring in part and opposing in other parts, chiefly because it did not go far enough in expanding EPA power; and other justices concurring in part and opposing in other parts, chiefly that the decision gave the EPA too much power. There are probably as many opinions as to the meaning of the Supreme Court’s holding and the eventual results as there we groups supporting or objecting to the EPA finding.
According to the Supreme Court Blog: “The Clean Air Act neither compels nor permits the Environmental Protection Agency to adopt an interpretation of the Clean Air Act requiring a stationary source of pollution to obtain a “Prevention of Significant Deterioration” or Title V permit on the sole basis of its potential greenhouse-gas emission. However, EPA reasonably interpreted the Clean Air Act to require sources that would need permits based on their emission of chemical pollutants to comply with “best available control technology” for greenhouse gases.”
The scope of the holding is limited. Early in the process the US Federal Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia made it clear it would not permit questioning of the EPA science. Subsequently, during the oral arguments the Supreme Court stated that the science will not be an issue.
The Court’s decision limited the power of the EPA to regulate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, chiefly carbon dioxide (CO2), only for those stationary sources for which it has power to regulate other emissions such as sulfur dioxide. It prevented the EPA from modifying clear regulations (tailoring) to fit the EPA purposes now or contemplated in the future. Under the prevention of significant deterioration section of the Clean Air Act, the EPA has the power regulate emissions ranging from 100 to 250 tons annually. Strict enforcement of the regulations would require the EPA to regulate millions of establishments that omit no traditional pollutants, including schools, hospitals, apartment buildings, etc. The EPA attempted to modify the regulations to avoid this strict requirement for now, but to perhaps tighten regulations in the future. The court denied this flexibility to the EPA. To summarize, the EPA has the power to regulate GHG emissions from major industries, but not from facilities that are not already regulated. Separate regulations give the EPA power to regulate emissions from motor vehicles.
No doubt, an issue that will be litigated in the future is the use of section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act, which EPA is using to regulate carbon dioxide from power plants. The majority opinion specified in a footnote that the opinion does not decide whether the provision EPA has used for its new and existing power plant rules is “ill-suited to accommodating greenhouse gases.” Thus, the opinion defined the battleground for future litigation.
Given the nature of the EPA to interpret science as it sees fit, it will take an act of Congress, or a court willing to accept challenges to EPA science (unlikely), before the public is adequately protected from the regulatory zeal of the EPA.
As stated in the February 1 TWTW, in its questionable finding that carbon dioxide emissions endanger public health and welfare, the EPA claimed its findings are supported by science and cited three lines of evidence.
1.) EPA claims a distinct human fingerprint — a hot spot in the atmosphere centered over the tropics at about 10 kilometers (33,000 feet). This hot spot may not exist. Satellites and weather balloons have failed to find it.
2.) EPA claims late 20th century surface global warming was unprecedented and dangerous. It was not. A similar warming occurred in the early 20th century, which was not associated with carbon dioxide. The late 20th century surface warming stopped over 16 years ago.
3.) EPA claims climate models are reliable. Climate models failed to predict that global warming would stop and greatly exaggerate the warming over the past 30 plus years.
The EPA finding that carbon dioxide endangers human health and welfare is based on failing science and sub-prime climate models that are failing.
The EPA, and many of its supporters, claim that the Court’s decision protects the public from increased heart attacks, asthma attacks, etc. Yet, the EPA refuses to reveal the scientific basis for these claims to Congress and the public.
To further challenge the Administration’s claims, the 2010 claim by Gavin Schmidt, the new head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies [GISS], and others in that agency, that atmospheric CO2 is the principal control knob governing Earth’s temperature is failing as rapidly as EPA’s science is failing. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/330/6002/356
SEPP was part of the Utility Air Regulatory Group.
For a variety of opinions on the Court’s decision and issues on the EPA’s secret science, please see Articles # 1, 2, and 3, links under Litigation Issues, EPA and other Regulators on the March, and
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Risky Business: Several high-profile politicians and former government officials as well as the Executive Chairman of Cargill have signed on a report by the Risky Business Project. Former Secretary of State George Shultz is a well-known Republican on the committee. The co-chairs of the group are former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, former Secretary of the Treasury and Goldman Sachs CEO Henry Paulson, and Democratic Party contributor Thomas Steyer, who opposes the expanded Keystone Pipeline and promised the Democratic Party $100 million for the upcoming elections.
The Title of the report: “Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United Sates – A Climate Risk Assessment for the United Sates” sounds impressive. However, the quality of the research is summed up in the opening paragraph. “Our research combines peer-reviewed climate projections through the year 2100 with empirically derived estimates of the impact of projected changes in temperature, precipitation, sea levels, and storm activity on the U.S. economy.” In short, “Risky Business” is a continuation of the drum-beat of climate alarmism found in the Summary for Policymakers of Physical Science volume of UN the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5). The alarmism was exaggerated in the recent US National Climate Assessment (NCA), signed by President Obama’s scientist, John Holdren, calling into question the scientific rigor endorsed by this Administration.
As with the NCA, “Risky Business” assumes that the projections some 90 years hence by un-validated climate models are reliable and that the global models can be used to project regional physical climate changes 90 years hence. The approach is logically and scientifically absurd. “Risky Business” is one more demonstration that scientific ignorance is not limited by political party.
It is amusing to speculate what will happen 10 years hence, if executives of businesses make decisions, costly to the shareholders, based on speculative climate models, and the climate models turn out to be very wrong, as it appears they are by projecting temperature increases that are increasingly diverging from observations. Basing decisions on the unsubstantiated claims in “Risky Business” could turn out to be very risky. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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BASIC Countries: The issue regarding Greenpeace India continues to fester. The country’s Intelligence bureau submitted a report all but calling Greenpeace anti-national and a threat to national energy security. Based on reports, Greenpeace India is partially financed by Western environmental interests. So are other Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs) in India. The reports state that Greenpeace India opposes coal-fired power plants, nuclear power, and genetically modified (GM) crops. The international NOGs are working to prevent funding of coal-fired power plants by the World Bank.
Speaking at a UN conference on sustainable development, Forests and Climate change minister Prakash Javadekar stated: “Poverty eradication…must remain the central and overarching objective of the SDGs (sustainable development goals) and the post-2015 development agenda,” It is increasing clear that the BASIC countries are choosing eradication of poverty over the ill-defined concepts such as sustainable development pushed by the UN and Western NGOs. As such, the BASIC countries are doing as service for humanity, including those living in developed countries. The BASIC countries are Brazil, South Africa (Africa, South) India and China. See links under Energy Issues – Non-US and Environmental Industry.
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Measurement Issues: A quick squabble broke-out among several independent blogs on the issue on whether or not the adjustments to the historic temperatures, which show a cooling of the past, are deliberate by the agencies reporting this temperatures. The specific instance was a press release by NOAA (the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) that May 2014 was the hottest May for global temperatures since records began in 1880. The press release was quickly rebuked in the blogs (including using NOAA’s own data) but the motivation issue lingered. In Climate Etc., Judith Curry well-summarized the issue and observed about the independent blogs involved: “However, the main point is that this group is rapidly self-correcting – the self-correcting function in the skeptical technical blogosphere seems to be more effective (and certainly faster) than for establishment climate science.” [Boldface added.]
The issue is a sensitive one to this author. Having long-served in many capacities, including President, in the oldest scientific society formed in Washington, an all-volunteer group, this author recognizes the importance of tradition and assuring that historic record-keeping is accurate. Many of the early members of this scientific society were important to establishing a nation-wide weather (climate) record. It is disturbing that this record may have been altered, whether or not deliberately. Further, NOAA was not transparent in its press release, which did not explain the sparseness of the world-wide record going back to 1880. See links under Seeking a Common Ground and Measurement Issues.
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Irrigation: A recent paper, based on models, supposedly showed that irrigation lowers land-surface temperatures. Empirical work by others, including John Christy, et al., show that irrigating arid and semi-arid regions do change temperatures. By adding water, evaporation produces water vapor (the main greenhouse gas). The effect is a decrease in day-time highs and an increase in night-time lows by a greater amount with a net effect of an increase in average daily temperatures. Direct empirical measurements are more important in understanding climate impacts of human activities than model simulations. See links under Changing Earth.
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Model Issues: In a post on Climate Etc., Judith Curry asks the thought-provoking question: are the General Circulation Models the best tools for studying climate change. What is critical is separating the human and natural influences. It is becoming increasingly evident that the establishment climate science community has failed to do so.
Further, our ability to mathematically model far exceeds our ability measure. The first step would be an inventory of those things we can measure both globally or regionally, and both historically and currently. From these we can begin to identify those phenomena we need to measure and begin to distinguish between natural influences and human influences. See links under Model Issues.
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Number of the Week: From 36% to 25% in 10 years. According to a June, 2014 report by the Energy Information Agency (EIA) the percentage of sales of fossil fuels produced from Federal and Indian Lands (including offshore) fell from 36% of total US production in 2003 to 25% of total production in 2013. The Obama Administration is not entirely responsible for this decline. Some of the decline can be attributed to the administration’s allies who previously stopped oil drilling activities in Alaska and are preventing construction of new coal-fired power plants. Defenders of the administration claim that increases in production on state-owned and private lands distort these number. But that excuse does not explain the declines in actual production.
http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/federallands/pdf/eia-federallandsales.pdf
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below, please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. What Is the EPA Hiding From the Public?
The agency shouldn’t get to decide who sees the science behind its rules. Open the research to outside analysis.
By Lamar Smith, WSJ, Jun 23, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/articles/lamar-smith-what-is-the-epa-hiding-from-the-public-1403563536
2. A Constitutional Tutorial for Obama
The President doesn’t possess ‘an unheralded power’ to rewrite laws.
Editorial, WSJ, Jun 23, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/articles/a-constitutional-tutorial-for-obama-1403562504
3. Supreme Court Ruling Backs Most EPA Emission Controls
Justices Say EPA Can Require Pollution Controls but Limit Permitting Process
By Brent Kendall and Amy Harder, WSJ, Jun 23, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/articles/supreme-court-reins-in-some-of-epas-greenhouse-gas-efforts-1403534416
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
New paper finds solar control of clouds, water vapor, & monsoon rainfall over past 35 years
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Jun 26, 2014
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/06/new-paper-finds-solar-control-of-clouds.html
Link to paper: Solar control on the cloud liquid water content and integrated water vapor associated with monsoon rainfall over India
By Animesh Maitra, Upal Saha, and Arpita Adhikari, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Jun 26, 2014
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682614001357
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Prominent Global Warming Skeptic Honored with Frederick Seitz Memorial Award
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 25, 2014
German Prof Friedrich-Karl Ewert Dismisses Visions Of Future Ocean Acidification…”Exaggerated Claims
By Freidrich-Karl Ewert, EIKE, Trans. P Gosselin, Jun 25, 2014
Rahmstorf’s acidification theory leads us to ask one thing: What does this kind of climate and ocean research have to do with natural sciences? –
Making up the Apocalypse: The truth about the science in Obama’s National Climate Assessment
By Daniel Botkin, Forbes, Jun 26, 2014 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Climate change: Less of a scientific agenda and more of a political agenda
By Marita Noon, Net Right Daily, Jun 24, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Review of Tim Ball’s book: The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science.]
The Climate Change Scam
By Vincent Gray, NZClimate Truth Newsletter No 333, Jun 26, 2014
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/the-climate-change-scam.html
Defending the Orthodoxy
White House, Liberal Billionaire Launch Global Warming Scare Campaign
By Michael, Bastasch, Daily Caller, Jun 24, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Link to report: Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States
By Kate Gordon, et al. The Risky Business Project, Jun 2014
http://riskybusiness.org/uploads/files/RiskyBusiness_PrintedReport_FINAL_WEB_OPTIMIZED.pdf
Report sees hefty cost of climate change on US economy
By Staff Writers, New York (AFP), June 24, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Report_sees_hefty_cost_of_climate_change_on_US_economy_999.html
‘Risky Business’ report: Climate change inaction will cost US billions
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jun 24, 2014
Physicist Offers $10,000 To Anyone Who Can Disprove Climate Change
By Ari Phillips, Climate Progress, Jun 23, 2014 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/06/23/3451810/physicist-offers-climate-denier-reward/
Link to challenge: The $10,000 Global Warming Skeptic Challenge!
By Christopher Keating, Dialogues on Global Warming, Jun 6, 2014
http://dialoguesonglobalwarming.blogspot.com/p/1000-global-warming-skeptic-challenge.html
[SEPP Comment: Safe offer, one cannot disprove a negative proposition, that is human-man-made climate change is not occurring. Regional changes in agriculture are an example. Substitute man-made global warming over the past decade, and the results are different.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Former EPA Heads Mum When Asked If Global Warming Is Accelerating
By Barbara Hollingsworth, CNSNews, Jun 24, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
The Greatest Climate Myths of All – Part 2.
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Jun 26, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/26/the-greatest-climate-myths-of-all-part-2/
John Holdren: Abuse of Office, Power, and Science for a Political Agenda
By Tim Ball, WUWT, Jun 24, 2014
Poll: 53% Of Americans Don’t Believe In Man-Made Global Warming
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Jun 26, 2014
http://dailycaller.com/2014/06/26/poll-53-of-americans-dont-believe-in-man-made-global-warming/
Link to poll: Section 7: Global Warming, Environment and Energy
By Staff Writers, Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Jun 26, 2014
http://www.people-press.org/2014/06/26/section-7-global-warming-environment-and-energy/
[SEPP Comment: As with many polls it is a matter of how the questions are asked and how the results are interpreted.]
Spring/summer sea ice bonanza for polar bears – conditions excellent again for 2014
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Jun 24, 2014
Terence Corcoran: The cost of climate change alarmism
By Terence Corcoran, Financial Post, Jun 24, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/06/24/terence-corcoran-the-cost-of-climate-change-alarmism/
The Week’s Climate Embarrassment
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Jun 27, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/06/the-weeks-climate-embarrassment.php
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Another excuse for ‘the pause’ – it’s ‘not so unusual’
New Lovejoy paper says the ‘pause’ is ‘not so unusual’ & ‘no more than natural variability’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 25, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/25/another-excuse-for-the-pause-its-not-so-unusual/
Link to paper: Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause.
By S. Lovejoy, Geophysical Research Letters, No Date
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060478/abstract
Pro-AGW Economists Try to Discredit Skeptics, Succeed in Discrediting Fellow Warmists!
By James McCown, WUWT, Jun 24, 2014
Seeking a Common Ground
Skeptical of skeptics: is Steve Goddard right?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jun 28, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/06/28/skeptical-of-skeptics-is-steve-goddard-right/#more-16044
Uneasy expertise
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jun 24, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/06/24/uneasy-expertise/
Pondering the Anthropocene
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jun 22, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/06/22/pondering-the-anthropocene/
More growth, less warming
The only way to get dangerous global warming is to assume stagnation
By Matt Ridley, His Blog, Jun 22, 2014
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-absurd-assumptions-behind-dangerous-climate-change.aspx
Caleb Rossiter – Missing In Action, Johnny-Come-Lately, Faux Victim, Political Tunnel Vision, or All-Of-The-Above?
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Jun 26, 2014
Revew of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
The Role of Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment in Human Nutrition
Reference: Myers, S.S., Zanobetti, A., Kloog, I., Huybers, P., Leakey, A.D.B., Bloom, A.J., Carlisle, E., Dietterich, L.H., Fitzgerald, G., Hasegawa, T., Holbrook, N.M., Nelson, R.L., Ottman, M.J., Raboy, V., Sakai, H., Sartor, K.A., Schwartz, J., Seneweera, S., Tausz, M. and Usui, Y. 2014. Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition. Nature: 10.1038/nature13179.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/jun/24jun2014a1.html
The Recent History and Imminent Future of Global Flooding
Reference: Kundzewicz, Z.W., Kanae, S., Seneviratne, S.I., Handmer, J., Nicholls, N., Peduzzi, P., Mechler, R., Bouwer, L.M., Arnell, N., Mach, K., Muir-Wood, R., Brakenridge, G.R., Kron, W., Benito, G., Honda, Y., Takahashi, K. and Sherstyukov, B. 2014. Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives. Hydrological Sciences Journal 59: 1-28.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/jun/24jun2014a3.html
Old Growth Forests Still Socking Away Carbon and Nitrogen
Reference: Schrumpf, M., Kaiser, K. and Schulze, E.-D. 2014. Soil organic carbon and total nitrogen gains in an old growth deciduous forest in Germany. PLOS ONE 9: e89364.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/jun/24jun2014a4.html
Searching for Megadroughts in CMIP5 Climate Models
Reference: Langford, S., Stevenson, S. and Noone, D. 2014. Analysis of low-frequency precipitation variability in CMIP5 historical simulations for southwestern North America. Journal of Climate 27: 2735-2756.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/jun/25jun2014a2.html
Models v. Observations
Swapping Climate Models For A Roll Of The Dice
By Doug Hoffman, The Resilient Earth, Via GWPF, Jun 21, 2014
http://www.thegwpf.org/swapping-climate-models-for-a-roll-of-the-dice/
A trifecta of uncertainty: study finds global precipitation is increasing, decreasing, & not changing
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 27, 2014
Laughing Stock Met Office…2007 “Peer-Reviewed” Global Temperature Forecast A Staggering Failure
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jun 24, 2014
Model Issues
Model structural uncertainty – are GCMs the best tools?
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jun 25, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/06/25/model-structural-uncertainty-are-gcms-the-best-tools/
Measurement Issues
Why would climate skeptics hold a conference in HOT Las Vegas?
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 24, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/24/why-would-climate-skeptics-hold-a-conference-in-hot-las-vegas/
Las Vegas Temperatures: The Plot Thickens
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jun 27, 2014
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/06/las-vegas-temperatures-the-plot-thickens/
Did NASA/NOAA Dramatically Alter U.S. Temperatures After 2000?
By Ronald Bailey, Reason.com., Jun 23, 2014
http://reason.com/blog/2014/06/23/did-nasanoaa-dramatically-alter-us-tempe
NOAA’s “Hottest Month” Claims Are Unscientific
By Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That, Jun 24, 2014
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/06/24/noaas-hottest-month-claims-are-unscientific/
The old data are getting hotter.
By Geoff Brown, NCTCS, Jun 27, 2014
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/the-old-data-is-getting-hotter.html
[SEPP Comment: The problem of reworking old data is not only in the US.
Changing Weather
WeatherBell “Saturday Summary” Debunks 6 Climate Alarmism Falsehoods In Less Than 10 Minutes!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jun 23, 2014
Regional weather extremes linked to atmospheric variations
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Jun 22, 2014 [H/t WUWT]
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140622142230.htm
Link to paper: Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes.
By Screen & Simmonds, Nature Climate Change, Jun 22, 2014
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2271.html
[SEPP Comment: Tim Ball and other commentators have described this in the past.]
Study: cold-season temperature variability has significantly decreased over the mid- to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere in recent decades
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 23, 2014
Link to presentation: Decreasing temperature variability over the mid- to high latitude Northern Hemisphere in a warming climate
By James Screen, Univ. of Exeter, Jan 29, 2014
http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/working_groups/Polar/presentations/2014/screen.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Additional analysis on the links above.]
Mapping the hottest day of the year in the USA
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 27, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/27/mapping-the-hottest-day-of-the-year-in-the-usa/
Changing Climate
Medieval Warm Period in Northern Europe
By Staff Writers, CO2 Science & SPPI, Jun 25, 2014
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/mwp_n_europe.pdf
Research provides new theory on cause of ice age 2.6 million years ago
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 27, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Re-tread of earlier findings. CO2 was not the primary control knob of Earth’s temperatures.]
Changing Seas
New paper finds sea levels were naturally up to 43 feet higher than the present during past interglacial [20 to 43 feet]
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Jun 25, 2014
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/06/new-paper-finds-sea-levels-were.html
Link to paper: South Greenland ice-sheet collapse during Marine Isotope Stage 11
By Reyes, et al. Nature, Jun 26, 2014
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v510/n7506/full/nature13456.html
New paper finds huge ‘whirlpools’ in the ocean are driving weather & climate
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Jun 27, 2014
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/06/new-paper-finds-huge-whirlpools-in.html
Link to paper: Oceanic Mass Transport by Mesoscale Eddies
By Zhengguang Zhang, Wei Wang, and Bo Qiu, Science, Jun 26, 2014
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2014/06/25/science.1252418
Ancient ocean currents may have changed pace and intensity of ice ages
By Staff Writers, NSF, Jun 26, 2014
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=131830&WT.mc_id=USNSF_51&WT.mc_ev=click
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress
By Ronald O’Rourke, Congressional Research Service, Jun 5, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/228523.pdf
[SEPP Comment: Repeating claims that the Arctic will have ice-free seasons within decades. Russia is claiming about one-half of the Arctic area. The US, Canada, Norway and Denmark (Greenland) are also making territorial claims for the Arctic. Two of the three US polar icebreakers have exceeded their 30-year service lives, one is not operational.]
Study Attributes Antarctic Glacier Melt to Volcanoes
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Jun 23, 2014
http://www.newsmax.com/LarryBell/Antarctic-Glacier-Melt-Volcanoes/2014/06/23/id/578686/
Changing Earth
New paper finds man-made irrigation causes ‘significant cooling of global average surface temperatures over land’
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Jun 18, 2014 [H/t WUWT]
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/06/new-paper-finds-man-made-irrigation.html
Link to paper:
Irrigation as an historical climate forcing
By Cook, et al., Climate Dynamics, June 2014
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2204-7
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Science and farming
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Jun 27, 2014
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/science-and-farming
[SEPP Comment: Assessing only the risks and ignoring the benefits of new techniques does not make sound agriculture policy.]
Humans have been changing Chinese environment for 3,000 years
By Staff Writers, St. Louis MO (SPX), Jun 24, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Longer than that. Attempting to control the river leads to greater prosperity and, subsequently, greater disasters.]
The ‘strawman’ albedo effect
Straw albedo mitigates extreme heat
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 23, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/23/the-strawman-albedo-effect/
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Claim: An increase of 3.5°C will result in crippling the EU
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 26, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/26/claim-an-increase-of-3-5c-will-result-cripple-the-eu/
Link to report: New study quantifies the effects of climate change in Europe
By Ciscar, et al. Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, April 2014
http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=7181
[SEPP Comment: The models don’t work now, who knows they may work by 2080?]
Conifers may give way to a more broad-leafed forest in the next century
By Staff Writers, Houghton MI (SPX), Jun 25, 2014
Link to paper: Minnesota forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project
By Handler, et al. USDA, Jun 12, 2014
http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/45939
[SEPP Comment: As has happened in times past.]
Lowering Standards
Royal Society has lost the argument, cannot be trusted
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jun 27, 2014
New BBC policy: right is wrong, wrong is right
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jun 26, 2014
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/6/26/new-bbc-policy-right-is-wrong-wrong-is-right.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Bipartisan Report Tallies High Toll on Economy From Global warming
By Justin Gillis NYT, Jun 24, 2014 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
New Report: Alarm Over Climate Turns People Off
By Ben Webster, The Times, Via GWPF, Jun 24, 2014
http://www.thegwpf.org/new-report-alarm-over-climate-turns-people-off/
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Alarmists Making It Up As They Go Along.
By Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That, Jun 22, 2014
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/06/22/alarmists-making-it-up-as-they-go-along/
Did Newsweek Really Claim Antarctic Sea Ice Is Melting?
By James Taylor, Federalist, Jun 19, 2014
http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/did-newsweek-really-claim-antarctic-sea-ice-is-melting.html
Improved communication between experts and the public key in winning battle to curb climate change, claims expert
By Tom Bawden, Independent, UK, Jun 25, 2014
Link to report: Time for Change: Climate Science Reconsidered
By the UCL Policy Commission on Communicating Climate Science, May 2014
Urgent and unprecedented environmental and social changes challenge scientists to define a new social contract. This contract represents a commitment on the part of all scientists to devote their energies and talents to the most pressing problems of the day in proportion to their importance, in exchange for public funding. [Boldface added] Former NOAA director and former president of AAAS, Jane Lubchenco.
With heat and humidity, areas will be ‘unsuited for outdoor activity
By Sharon Begley, Reuters, Jun 24, 2014 [H/t Climate Depot]
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/24/us-climatechange-economy-regions-idUSKBN0EZ0AI20140624
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Swimming bear video used to promote climate change threat to polar bears
By Susan Crockfrod, Polar Bear Science, Jun 25, 2014
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Obama Orders NASA to Prioritize Climate Change
By Anne Hobson, American Spectator, Jun 26, 2014
http://spectator.org/blog/59784/obama-orders-nasa-prioritize-climate-change
UN launches first global environmental assembly
By Staff Writers, Nairobi (AFP), June 23, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/UN_launches_first_global_environmental_assembly_999.html
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Examiner Editorial: Admit it, greens — renewables can’t power U.S. economy
Washington Examiner, Jun 21, 2014
Green Jobs
Like global temperature, ‘climate jobs’ seems to have peaked and are heading downward
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 24, 2014
Non-Green Jobs
America’s New Industrial Boomtowns
By Joel Kotkin, His Blog, Jun 19, 2014
http://www.joelkotkin.com/content/00921-americas-new-industrial-boomtowns
Funding Issues
Climate Reparations – A New Demand
By Peter Wood, Minding the Campus, Jun 26, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.mindingthecampus.com/2014/06/climate-reparations-a-new-demand/
Litigation Issues
Both sides see victory in Supreme Court’s ruling on EPA regs
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jun 23, 2014
Court mostly backs US effort to cut greenhouse gases
By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP), June 23, 2014
http://news.yahoo.com/court-mostly-backs-us-effort-cut-greenhouse-gases-172952583.html
EPA Gets Smacked Around by SCOTUS
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Jun 23, 2014
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/06/epa-gets-smacked-around-by-scotus.php
Supreme Court rejects EPA’s rewrite of the Clean Air Act, but greenhouse gas regulation will go forward
By Jonathan Adler, Washington Post, Jun 23, 2014
Opinion: http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/13pdf/12-1146_4g18.pdf
Further thoughts on today’s Supreme Court decision on greenhouse gas regulation
By Jonathan Adler, Washington Post, Jun 23, 2014
Justices limit existing EPA global warming rules
By Mark Sherman, AP, Jun 23, 2014
http://www.chicoer.com/breakingnews/ci_26016656/justices-limit-existing-epa-global-warming-rules
Supreme Court limits EPA on some greenhouse gas emissions rules
By Sean Lengell and Zack Colman, Washington Examiner, Jun 23, 2014
Supreme Court Chips EPA GHG Authority, Says Agency Has No Power to “Tailor” Laws to Policy Goals
By Sonal Patel, Power News, Jun 23, 2014
W.Va. Dem: Supreme Court ruling ‘chink in EPA’s armor’
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jun 23, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/210241-wva-dem-supreme-court-ruling-chink-in-epas-armor
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Liberals celebrate as carbon tax repeal passes lower house
By Mark Kenny and Judith Ireland, Sydney Morning Herald, Jun 26, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Prime Minister Abbott comes out a winner
Editorial, Herald Sun, Melbourne, Jun 26, 2014
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Falling prices, falling windfarms
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jun 23, 2014
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/6/23/falling-prices-falling-windfarms.html
[SEPP Comment: Perverse economics in government subsidized industry.]
Executive Fiats in the Other Washington
By Paul Driessen, Townhall, Jan 21, 2014
Households face paying too much for offshore wind farms
National Audit Office criticises Government for handing out £16.6bn worth of green energy subsidies without competition to push down prices
By Emily Gosden, Telegraph, UK, Jun 27, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA’s Grasping Reach
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jun 24, 2014
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2014/06/24/epas-grasping-reach/
Higher Costs Built Into EPA Proposal
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jun 27, 2014
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2014/06/27/higher-costs-built-into-epa-proposal/
[SEPP Comment: EPA’s definition of reasonable may significantly differ from a consumer’s definition of reasonable.]
Fears of EPA ‘land grab’ create groundswell against water rule
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jun 21, 2014
Rep. Issa threatens contempt for EPA
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jun 25, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/210535-issa-threatens-contempt-for-epa
Another agency tells Congress: File not found
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jun 25, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/210564-epa-says-hard-drive-crashed-emails-lost
Committee targets EPA’s ‘secret science’
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jun 24, 2014
[SEPP Comment: EPA now claims it cannot find emails it claimed. Maybe EPA cannot find the science it claims.]
EPA Spending $1.6 Million on Hotel for ‘Environmental Justice’ Conference
By Elizabeth Harrington, Washington Free Beacon, Jun 27, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://freebeacon.com/issues/epa-spending-1-6-million-on-hotel-for-environmental-justice-conference/
Energy Issues – Non-US
Javadekar bats for poverty eradication as highest goal
Stays consistent with previous diplomatic redlines on environment negotiations
By Nitin Sethi, Business Standard (India), Jun 27, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Energy Issues — US
Institute for Energy Research calls for moratorium on coal plant closures
By Sarah Tincher, State Journal (West Virginia), Jun 26, 2014 [H/t ICECAP]
Link to report: Protect the American People: Moratorium on Coal Plant Closures Essential
By Roger Bezdek and Frank Clemente, Institute for Energy Research
Reversal of Fortune: The Fate of Oil
By David Archibald, American Thinker, Jun 26, 2014
http://americanthinker.com/2014/06/reversal_of_fortune.html
Washington’s Control of Energy
Obama’s CO2 Restrictions Hit Hardest in Key Senate States
By James Taylor, The Federalist, Jun 25, 2014
http://thefederalist.com/2014/06/25/obamas-co2-restrictions-hit-hardest-in-key-senate-states/
US approves two permits for crude exports
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jun 25, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/210495-us-opens-door-to-more-crude-oil-exports
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Oil and gas exploration blocks expanded to entice fracking firms
Government changes the system for offering energy companies oil and gas exploration rights, to entice fracking firms to bid for access in imminent ‘licensing round’
By Emily Gosden, Telegraph, UK, Jun 24, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Fracking to become a reality as French firm is given green light for shale gas drilling
By CW, Copenhagen Post, Jun 26, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: In Denmark!]
Return of King Coal?
In a global ‘war on coal,’ coal is winning
Global coal consumption rose 3 percent in 2013, despite efforts in some places to scale back use of the carbon-heavy fuel. Why is it hard to stop depending on coal for energy?
By Nick Cunningham, Christian Science Monitor, Jun 19, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2014/0619/In-a-global-war-on-coal-coal-is-winning
Dem Sen: ‘People Would Have Died’ Without Coal Last Winter
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Jun 26, 2014 [H/t Roger Bezdek]
What will climate policy mean for coal?
By Staff Writers, Vienna, Austria (SPX), Jun 25, 2014
http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/What_will_climate_policy_mean_for_coal_999.html
Link to paper: Stranded on a low-carbon planet: Implications of climate policy for the phase-out of coal-based power plants
By Johnson, et al., Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Mar 29, 2014
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162514000924
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Delays and More Costs for Plant Vogtle Nuclear Expansion
By Sonal Patel, Power News, Jun 26, 2014
Where is Uranium Found and How is it Processed for Nuclear Energy
Photos, By Staff, IAEA, Jun 23, 2014
http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/multimedia/photoessays/uram/
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Germany will miss renewable energy targets, says PV industry association
By Andy Colthorpe, PV Tech, Jun 20, 2014
http://www.pv-tech.org/news/germany_will_miss_renewable_energy_targets_says_pv_industry_association
[SEPP Comment: Is that bad news?]
Should Wind Turbines Be Allowed To Kill Eagles? Debate Ratchets Up With Bird Group Lawsuit
By Maria Gallucci, International Business Times, Jun 20, 2014
Texas hits new peak wind output
By April Lee, EIA, Jun 23, 2014 [H/t David Kreutzer]
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=16811
[SEPP Comment: If wind were the only source of electricity, given the record shown in the graph, who would ride an elevator or a subway?]
Carbon Schemes
Capturing Carbon Drives up Energy Costs
By Sierra Rayne, American Thinker, Jun 26, 2014
http://americanthinker.com/2014/06/capturing_carbon_drives_up_energy_costs.html
DOE project hits carbon-capture milestone
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jun 26, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/210681-doe-project-hits-carbon-capture-milestone
[SEPP Comment: What if you do not have oil wells in your backyard. Could this be a path to promote oil and gas drilling in jurisdictions that oppose it/]
California Dreaming
WSJ: California’s Cap-and-Trade Revolt- Liberal Democrats worry that carbon limits will hurt the poor
California’s Cap-and-Trade Revolt
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtic, Jun 27, 2014
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/06/wsj-californias-cap-and-trade-revolt.html
Environmental Industry
Global governance: fighting off the NGOs
By Richard North, EUReferendum, Jun 25, 2014 [H/t Bishop Hill]
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85039
The world of Green NGOs is as complex as the corporate one
By Nitin Sethi, Business Standard (India), Jun 21, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Greenpeace: incompetence and hypocrisy
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jun 23, 2014
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2014/6/23/greenpeace-incompetence-and-hypocrisy.html
Greenpeace localises its global agenda, irks government
By Nitin Sethi, Business Standard, Jun 27, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Other Scientific News
European Space Agency says magnetic north is drifting southward
By Brooks Hays, London (UPI), Jun 23, 2013
Clarifying the Debate Over Measles Vaccinations
By Sierra Rayne, American Thinker, Jun 24, 2014
http://americanthinker.com/2014/06/clarifying_the_debate_over_measles_vaccinations.html
Other News that May Be of Interest
Niger Calder, 1931-2014
By Staff Writer, GWPF, Jun 27, 2014
http://www.thegwpf.org/nigel-calder-1931-2014/
Are Pesticides Linked To Autism? Here Are 3 Big Concerns About A New Paper
By Hank Campbell, Science 2.0, Jun 23, 2014
Change in farming could lower Europe’s temperature: study
By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP), June 23, 2014
http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Change_in_farming_could_lower_Europes_temperature_study_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Will it make the spring thaw later?]
IDing Livestock Gut Microbes Contributing to Greenhouse Gas Emissions
By Staff Writers, Walnut Creek CA (SPX), Jun 25, 2014
[SEPP Comment: More Department of Energy financing!]
Stanford breakthrough provides picture of underground water
By Rob Jordan, Stanford CA (SPX), Jun 20, 2014
UNESCO says all of Tasmanian forest to stay protected
By Staff Writers, Doha (AFP), June 23, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/UNESCO_says_all_of_Tasmanian_forest_to_stay_protected_999.html
################################################
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Fairfax papers fooled by foolish Gore. Sceptics win
By Andrew Bolt, Herald Sun, Jun 26, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
We Can Eliminate the Major Tornado Threat in Tornado Alley
By Staff Writer, World Scientific, Jun 23, 2014 (?) [H/t WUWT]
http://www.worldscientific.com/page/pressroom/2014-06-23-02
Acknowledgments: This work is supported in part by a grant from US Naval Research Lab.
###################################################
I speak English as my Google can help. Such a large number of reports and papers one can perceive or examine a couple of years, and that is why I do not pretend to follow it, because I know, based on my intuition and application of the laws of nature, the human factor is irrelevant to climate change and its causes. I sometimes discuss the “WUWT”, which argue that no discussion of the point is not related to the true causes of climate change, but only analyze, record and measure phenomena as indicators of some changes, but without going into the detection of true causative agent of these changes. For me is an illusion to offer any kind of solved and you know in advance that I have to pay a revelation of something which brings the benefit of all humanity. What is this humanity in him when no one wants to do any good, if by that he does not become rich. I just want cooperation to publish something, but to bear the scientific institutions of the state must be financed. I participated in about 42 forums on LinkedIn, until I realized that the owners forum tycoons, who only want to get pay Bringing scientific evidence, because their science and do not care, because most of them are in it and does not understand. Our proverb says, “Where there are more grandmothers, children suffering from hernia”
His misuse of the possessive pronoun is creepy.
Yep. And 0.00002% of Americans firmly believe they can’t explain climate history since mid 20th century without CO2. In fact they can’t even explain it with it.
The rest simply believe they can’t explain it anyhow and they are right.
@ hunter, whom was so “kind and intelligent” assessment. But it would be even more effective if you know that a little more clearly and consciously explain it. Maybe that’s why so represent yourself. What do you “hunt” in the scientific reserve.?
“I’ve got a bunch of scientists at NASA [GISS] and I’ve got a bunch of scientists at EPA.”
That explains that floor-pooping thing.
I recently wrote to you about the RISKEY BUSINESS REPORT on CLIMATE CHANGE. I noted that to me the report appeared to be flawed, exaggerated the threat and was biased. It seemed to focus on global warming only and completely ignored winter and other climate risks like the possibility of climate cooling in the future To illustrate my point I have taken just one state , namely ILLINOIS.
PER RISKEY BUSINESS REPORT
ILLINOIS, MIDWEST
BY 2020-2039 SUMMER TEMPERATURE S 75.6 to 77.8F
Number of days over 95.6F is 6-17 when it is too hot to go out
The projected increase in Midwest surface air temperatures won’t just affect the health of the region’s crops; it will also put the region’s residents at risk. Over the past 40 years, the Midwest experienced only 2.7 days on average over 95°F. If we stay on our current climate path, the average Midwest resident will likely experience an additional 7 to 26 days above 95°F each year by mid-century, and 20 to 75 additional extreme-heat days—potentially more than 2 additional months per year of extreme heat—by the end of the century. On the other hand, the region will also experience fewer winter days with temperatures below freezing.
LET’S LOOK AT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ILLINOIS SINCE 1998 OR LAST 16 YEARS USING CLIMATE AT A GLANCE NOAA CLIMATE DATA BASE( US GOVERNMENT RECORDS)
THE AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE 1998-2013 IS 74 F
ANNUAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS DECLINING( -0.6 F/DECADE)
WINTER TEMPERATURE TREND IS DECLINING( -3.3 F /DECADE 17 YEARS)
FEBRUARY TEMPERATURE TREND IS DECLINING ( -6.6 F/DECADE) [TEMP DROPPED FROM 41F to19.4 F or a drop of 20 degrees since 1998]
SUMMER TEMPERATURE TREND IS SLIGHTLY RISING( + 0.7 F/DECADE)
FALL TEMPERATURE TREND IS DECLINING( -1.3 F/DECADE )
SPRING TEMPERATURE TREND IS DECLINING( -0.1 F/ DECADE)
120 YEAR SUMMER TREND SINCE 1895 IS ZERO 0.0 F/DECADE (FLAT)
From Chicago Tribune, MARCH 3, 2014
The National Weather Service has gauged this season’s chills, in part, by noting the number of days with subzero temperatures from the start of November through the end of March. By that measure, the allegedly just-ended season had the fourth-most days with the mercury below zero. But add in days when the temperature sunk to exactly zero, and suddenly, this season is Chicago’s new No. 1.
What is of note is that the 4 month period from Dec1 to March 31 ,2014 was the coldest winter since 142 years ago or since records were kept completely opposite of what Risky Business predicts
COMMENTS
How one can look at what is happening to the climate in Illinois, with the annual, spring, winter, fall temperatures dropping and very severely in the winter and then only focus on a potential summer heat threat is grossly exaggerating and misinforming the public about what the real climate risks are for Illinois. The latest 16 year summer temperature trend is slightly warming( 0.7 F/DECADE ) and the long term summer trend is zero warming. Yes there are periodic summer heat spells but this not the long term trend. Not to point out the severe winter trend which is the real climate risk is even more troubling. Why are winter temperatures so important? Because very cold winters lead to cold spring and cold summers and lower the annual temperature as well. This pattern has led to 17 year pause in the rise of global temperatures and will lead to 2-3 decades of colder global temperatures .