Another excuse for 'the pause' – it's 'not so unusual'

Shouldn’t they maybe “pause” in their quest for more of my money confiscated through taxation, at least until they get their models sorted out?
Oh, but that’s the thing about having government do the confiscating, isn’t it? Your excuses can be pretty flimsy. Or nonexistent.

The IPCC suggests -0.1 to +0.1 of natural variability on the attribution chapter of the AR5. Saying the pause exists out of natural variability is a cop-out.

The science was settled.
Natural variability was ruled out, but now it’s back in.
It wasn’t the sun, but maybe now it could be.
Sea ice was melting, melting I tell you. Now it’s at a satellite-era record.
It was CO2, but now it’s probably CO2 but could also be stadium waves, stronger winds, softer winds, dodgy satellite data, coincidence! Whatever.
The heat was over-powering, now it’s missing and probably hiding at the bottom of the ocean.
The models were fine, now they’re um, er, er…..
Not looking so great for this ‘settled’ science, is it?

If we get to choose I say it’s a man-made pause and I declare victory over climate change.

The obvious question:
If the pause since 1998 is caused by natural variability, how much of the preceeding rise was caused by natural variablity?

It is all because of Al Gore. Every damn place he goes, it gets so damn cold. It’s bloody freezing here right now. Can Al Gore please stop jetting around and just let the planet warm up?

Obama and his EPA know that answer and we must be regulated according to their beliefs! Even the Supreme court has sided with this fools tax. We are the fools and they are taxing us. There will be no pause to the regulation and taxes.

Of course pauses have happened in the past. And yes, they were due to NV. And they are happening now. So his reasoning is they are also due to NV? Which would indicate that so is the warming (absent any disproof of the null hypothesis).
His problem is that none of the models model the pause! Back to the drawing board for him!
As for the 2 graphs, it is easy to tell which one is the “man-made” one. It is the one with a pause at the end (the 1900-45 does not have one).

Cheshirered, you mentioned their line about heat trapped at the bottom of the ocean but you left out that they claimed it was being released with methane as the Arctic ice melts. Otherwise, you nailed it.
Don’t you just love this? The ‘pause’ is due to natural variability but the 20 year warming wasn’t and was all due to the scourge of the planet–man.

The increase in SST was due to insolation, not any greenhouse gas effect. IR radiation cannot penetrate water. This increased insolation accounts for all of the late warming trend circa 1977-97. CO2 has never been shown and cannot be shown to be the cause of this late warming trend. The global warmers have only unsupported theory, but in fact this theory is a foundering hypothesis, refuted by empirical data- the temperature record of the last 17 years. Thus such papers as this which argue tenously and with faulty logic, which is the best that the global warmers can do.

“not so unusual”
Excellent . . . climatology as per Tom Jones. 😉

Is this Lovejoy for real?
If so an abject failure as a scientist.
Or is this another communication saboteur , who took his name from the Simpsons character , who has that immortal line; ” Won’t someone please think of the children”. Or the star of Shaun the Sheep?
As others have nailed, if it is natural variation now, because the Team ™ IPCC needs it to be, what suspended natural variation during the modern warming?
As the deliberate ignorance of history, the lying use of “unprecedented” and constant doomsaying are the mark of the charlatan, this Lovejoy, if real, exposes himself to an ungrateful world..

Up to the time when we see crops being farmed in Greenland that require a more temperate climate then what was farmed there about 1000 years ago it will always be difficult for anyone to credibly claim that the current climate variability is anything but natural.
If this was to come to pass only then can the claim be made “we have never seen this before”, which really means “our records and information do not go back far enough to know if this has happened in the last 10,000 years”. AGW proponents seem to take the 1000 year odd climate cycles and impact around the Mediterranean for granted as minor variations but more dramatic evidence of cycles is ignored since it does not fit the AGW theory as it might make people THINK.
Let’s make the most of it while it lasts, if I understand it correctly it was no fun 300 odd years ago.
Historical temperature reconstructions will always remain open for debate, farming on Greenland is not.

“Can you tell with 99.9% confidence which one is …..”
Yeah, easy. The one that carries on rising is natural. the one that flattens off is due to ever rising CO2.
To be honest, I did have to look closely before I found the 98 El Nino.

Both the pause and the previous warming are man made, obviously. I tell you how.
Twenty years ago nothing was easier than to adjust recent temperatures upward and old ones down, then repeat the procedure ad nauseam. However, it can’t be done any more on a large scale, because people are watching. That’s the inconvenient truth.
For example in 1977 Northern hemisphere temperature drop from 1938 to 1964 used to be 0.87°C (Fig. 2.5, at bottom of page). Since then this mid century cooling was reduced to 0.31°C (GISTEMP) or 0.28°C (HadCRUT4).
Bulk of this particular adjustment was made decades ago. Data were inconsistent with computational models and in cases like that true pseudoscientists rewrite measurements retrospectively instead of bothering with their model, because that’s the standard post normal procedure.
Unfortunately people are busy archiving their products lately, some even dare to compare recent datasets against older ones and, preposterous as it may be, ask questions.
Of course, it’s academic freedom which suffers greatly.
From HadCRUT3 to HadCRUT4 they were only able to reduce said cooling from 0.364°C to 0.28°C, so they are proceeding rather cautiously, nevertheless, it is still progress.
But it is even more difficult to play with the last 2 decades, so what we get is a man made pause, that is, one enforced by the vigilance of the skeptic blogosphere.

outtheback says:
June 25, 2014 at 10:49 am
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Not only crops but also animal husbandry.
Keeping animals requires a lot of water, and animals can quickly die in harsh winter conditions. Only a couple of years ago in the UK, we had tens of thousands of live stock deaths due to the harsh winter conditions especially hill farming in Wales and the Scottish Highlands.
Given the primative technology available to the Vikings, winter conditions in Greenland must have been warmer than winter conditions seen now seen in the Highlands in Scotland or otherwise one or two harsh winters would have wiped out the Viking settlements.

As a litigator I often think in cross-examination terms. Some of you commenting above could have a future in the courtroom.

Willis says:
“This is important, because of course, according to the alarmists CO2 is the sole and only cause … so saying “we don’t know the cause” reminds folks that there are causes other than CO2, and not only that, but those causes are unknown … and the alarmists can’t have that.”
The whole farrago rests on saying that we have ruled out all other causes, thus it must be CO2. That is a weak argument (and a fallacy) at best, but people buy it. If we now say there are things we don’t know about, then the argument totally falls apart.
Thus it is “natural variability” which hides the fact that it is “we don’t know.”

Friends of Science have several billboards up in Alberta showing “Global Warming Stopped Naturally 16+ Years Ago”. See night-time photo of one version here:
http://friendsofscience.org/assets/images/GW_16yr_BBphotoSm.jpg
Here is another version on the 42-foot superboard at Airdrie, Alberta:
http://friendsofscience.org/assets/images/GW_16yr_lg.jpg
Our home page features the billboard showing source information.
http://www.friendsofscience.org/

Doug Danhoff says:
June 26, 2014 at 12:10 pm
They are all liars and when this scam is over should never be allowed to teach or work for any scientific organization. I suspect they will never be held accountable for the cost in human lives but a large L burned into their forehead would be acceptable.
==============================================
And an obligatory hand bell, I think.
“Unclean, unclean”

Arno Arrak,
It is a pity that Physicist Miskolczi is not a very good transmitter of his ideas. His science makes sense and is first class, but he has trouble imparting it to enough people. It takes real skull sweat to understand him, as he assumes all have his foundation in radiation physics of the atmosphere. And of course this is not so. You did a first class job of imparting his essentially simple ideas and concepts, even though they contain lots of scientific insight.
The real atmosphere of Earth is a mixture of gases, and the response is as a mixture would be expected to perform. However not are all absorbers in the IR spectrum and one gas dominates, the di-hydrogen oxide, as it is most common on Earth, and rare elsewhere, by a large amount fed by an essentially infinite supply, the oceans of Earth.

Malc says:
June 25, 2014 at 5:56 am
“Pretty much everything else in climate change dogma is “unprecedented”. But The Pause is nothing special”
I read recently that the 0.02 deg C rise in ARGO sea temps in 10 years was “unprecedented” and that deep ocean heat was building “faster than expected”
Suppose that’s true since they have only had the data for 10 years. Never mind that the average buoy error is 0.10 deg C