Letter to the Editor (orginally published in the Washington post, also submitted to WUWT)
For the second year in a row, we’ve had peak cherry blossoms later than the average date of March 31. In 2013, they were nine days late; this year they were 10 days late. That’s not a big surprise; after all, the usual peak date itself is just an average.
But what is curious is how The Post’s coverage of cherry blossoms veers into discussions of global warming in some years but not in others. In 2012, when the blossoms peaked on March 20, one front-page article was ominously headlined, “Much-too-early bloomers? As temperatures rise, scientists speculate that cherry blossom times could advance by a month.” A Capital Weather Gang blog post that month was headlined, “D.C.’s cherry blossoms have shifted 5 days earlier: What about global warming and the future?” Why enjoy an early spring when you can turn it into a teachable moment?
Needless to say, this news angle wilted a bit in the past two years.
When it comes to global warming, the recent late blossoms don’t prove much. But for that matter, neither did the early blossoms of years past.
Sam Kazman, Washington
The writer is general counsel for the Competitive Enterprise Institute.
I believe one of the Earliest blossoming dates, was set in 1943, which places it right on the verge of the last cooling cycle. Someone correct me if I am wrong…
Just another instance that in climate science only the theory and the model matter, actual observations can be safely ignored when awkward.
Why are we still calling climate science a science? As practiced today, it is as much a science as astrology, Scientology and homeopathy.
Listening to: Talking Heads: “Stop Making Sense”
What’s the Deal with the Cherry Blossoms? (The Hoya, Georgetown, March 30, 2014)
With a very good scatter chart of peak Cherry Blossom bloom date (x) vs average March temperatures.(y) It made the graphical prediction that peak 2014 date would be April 11.
The CAGW myth-makers will quickly grab anything to “prove” their theory – and drop it just as fast when it becomes “Inconvenient” for their righteous crusade.
Coral, polar bears, glaciers, Australian water supplies, Pacific atolls, food shortages etc., etc., etc.,
Shades of Monty Python’s LoB sandal scene…….
Here in se BC we’ve had a Windermere Lake “ice out” contest for over 40 years. The bet money for closest time goes to charity. Four of the last 5 years have been record late or very late ice outs. Does this prove much, probably not. Do I throw it out there to bug my constantly exagrerating, warmist friends, you bet.
…and if this trend continues
Wasn’t that long ago they also published an op-ed saying they would be able to grow bananas
Why do we bow to the term ‘climate change’? Climate has been changing since the beginning of time and there is nothing we can do about it other than cope. Let us not forget how the hucksters and charlatans tried to foment fear with the term ‘global warming’ but the darn planet didn’t cooperate so rather than trash their hypothesis they changed the terminology. Today any weather event qualifies as ‘climate change’ and the more we use this term the more legitimately we give it. A while back there was a discussion of terminology and someone proposed the term ‘Climate Rambunctiousness’ which I believe puts all this into the correct perspective.
Peter Miller:
Why are we still calling climate science a science? As practiced today, it is as much a science as astrology, Scientology and homeopathy.
Let’s be fair. it’s probably more comparable as a science to, say, economics and psychology than scientology and homeopathy.
The Post’s articles linked to are about long term trends. The data from the last two years don’t have much impact on the trend. Thus, it is Kazman who is cherry blossom picking.
Here’s what we’re up against. Asked a relative to “show me the data” that shows temps climbing over the last century, or whenever. She shows me a graph, which I point out is a) a graph of the data after it was heavily processed with algorithms unspecified, not “the data”, and b) a projection into the future, not data from observations made in the past. Response: “So what?’
You’ll never believe who she voted for in every election since she turned 18.
Re: Monty Python.
I was thinking the CAGW Climate Theory discussions are quickly approaching the Dead Parrot Sketch.
“The Post’s articles linked to are about long term trends. The data from the last two years don’t have much impact on the trend. Thus, it is Kazman who is cherry blossom picking”
No, it’s you who are cherry picking, which in this case means reading selectively. Try reading the last sentence.
“When it comes to global warming, the recent late blossoms don’t prove much. But for that matter, neither did the early blossoms of years past.”
Felix says:
April 26, 2014 at 8:02 am
Mr Kazman’s letter did not argue trends one way or another. Your statement regarding trends is therefor silly. What he did question is the Post’s using early blooms to argue global warming was here, yet when blooms are later there is no corresponding comment.
cheers,
gary
Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get. Since the consensus folks always expect warm, warm weather is always climate.
Here is a Japanese record of Cherry Blossoms spanning the last 1000 years
http://www.leif.org/EOS/Cherry-Trees-Japan.pdf
“The dates of cherry tree festivals in Japan have emerged as one of the most important sources
of information on the impacts of climate change on plants. The data set is exceptionally detailed, and extends back in time more than any other known data set on plant flowering times. “
I don’t know about trends but i can tell you that here in the North West of England we didn’t see the first cherry blossoms until as late as two weeks ago. The Apples are in blossom now. my English basil is all but died off, my rosemary is struggling. Half my tomato plants are stunted and struggling that I’m concerned they won’t even get to fruit before the weather turns again. Potatoes? Don’t even go there. of the 20 plus plants i am expecting only two have even shown their faces above ground.
Does this mean anything for the climate? Of course not but it has a bloody annoying effect on my summer larder!
Richard Primack and Hiroyoshi Higuchi attributed Japan’s recent earlier cherry blossom festivals to global warming. Climate Change and Cherry Tree Blossom Festivals in Japan
This year the Koyoto bloom was later.
As an aside, the Nenana Ice Classic is also over.
David L. Hagen says:
April 26, 2014 at 8:26 am
Richard Primack and Hiroyoshi Higuchi attributed Japan’s recent earlier cherry blossom festivals to global warming.
Actually, most of it to Urban Development…
The Japan Cherry Trees link Leif provided closes with a contour map of cherry blossom dates in the region of Osaka. There is a clear bullseye on the city center. The record of Cherry Trees is defining the Urban Heat Island effect.
It is also possible that the higher CO2 provides a faster time to blossoms from the time when the tree leaves dormancy in the spring.
Realclimate picked the Nenana ice out this year.
The Japan Cherry Trees link Leif provided is a decidedly AGW promulgating article.
Interesting how the article on the Kyoto trees from Mr. Isvalgaard discusses how the urban heat island effect makes the trees bloom early.
So that’s why the daffodils that never stray far from home flower first! OK, so we impact micro-regional temperature through UHI. How much does worldwide urbanization raise worldwide temps? Does UHI ever stay out late and fraternize with that floozy CO2? What do their kids look like? Are they hot ?
Climate Catastrophe: A Superstorm for Global Warming Research (Spiegel)
lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 8:18 am
Here is a Japanese record of Cherry Blossoms spanning the last 1000 years
http://www.leif.org/EOS/Cherry-Trees-Japan.pdf
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
There was another study by Aono that I’ve unfortunately lost the link to that quantified the UHI using cherry blossom dates between rural and urban settings at similar latitude and elevation. When the resulting UHI estimation was subtracted from those parts of the data exposed to it, the over all trend was still positive, but the uptick at the end disappeared. If I recall correctly, the city used to quantify the UHI was Kyoto, which I found rather amusing.
@Hans Erren at 8:56 am
Do you have a link?
All I can find is a gavin @ 7 March 2014 that made a prediction based on trend of May 3 and has a less that 22% chance of anytime before April 26 (2014 breakup day)
So, if the blossoms are occurring later (last two years), are we experiencing global cooling? Less UHI affect?
Go easy on me – I’m just an average guy not an academic.
Here in Vancouver, BC, our cherry blossoms are just finishing up, and we had a relatively mild winter. I have no idea when the average is for coastal BC (or Japan – Cherry blossoms are very big!) however it would be an interesting research area for some student looking for a project that is visible and obvious for warming/cooling and trying to figure out what is an influence on blossoms besides the weather (if something else is an influence)…
The record of US cherry trees kept by the US Park service is here. This goes from 1921 through 2011, nowhere near as long as the Japanese record, but it shows clearly there is nothing unprecedented about an April 10 bloom, just as there was nothing unprecedented about a March 20th bloom that got Harry Reid all a-twitter in 2012. The document does not say whether these dates are first bloom or peak bloom.
The US Park Service record records bloom for two different varieties — Yoshino and Kwanzan — Yoshino appears to bloom about 14 days earlier. From the dates given in the USPS article referenced from the Washington Post article, it appears they are talking about the Yoshino variety. The actual quote from the USPS cherry blossom expert Robert DeFeo is:
Gaa! botched the blockquote tags. WUWT readers will no doubt figure out where the DeFeo quote ends and I pick back up again.
Go over to BreitBart…breaking info now, somebody said something anti climate change…oh dear!
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/04/26/Former-NASA-Scientist-Global-Warming-is-Nonsense#comment-1356635701
Without going into a lot math, even though the PDF file you referenced from http://www.lief.org specifically followed their CAGW religion and claimed that today’s cherry blossom festival prove that today’s temperatures are the hottest ever over the past 1000 years, that’s not actually the case.
None of the recent cherry blossom temperature proxies are hotter than the dates between 1000 and 1450, and that period was spanning a length of many more years than today.
Further, though the increase in recent years was steadily upward, that increase is ALSO a “proof” of the Little Ice Age over in Japan – There is a very distinct “COLD PERIOD” in Japan between 1600 and 1900! Now, what I cannot explain is why the MWP “peak” in Japan trailed that in Europe and elsewhere by 200 years, nor why the LIA “dip” in Japan was 200 years later than in Europe.
Now, what I cannot explain is why the MWP “peak” in Japan trailed that in Europe and elsewhere by 200 years, nor why the LIA “dip” i Japan was 200 years later than in Europe.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Curry’s stadium wave?
Alexander Feht says:
April 26, 2014 at 9:02 am
“The Japan Cherry Trees link Leif provided is a decidedly AGW promulgating article.”
Alexander, read the article, it shows that the urban heat island effect is real.
Re article:
This a real treemometer! I think if we chose flowering species around the world for keeping temperature it would be the most definitive and be safe from algorithms used to discipline thermometers by the “CAGW department of corrections”.
Alexander Feht says:
April 26, 2014 at 9:02 am
The Japan Cherry Trees link Leif provided is a decidedly AGW promulgating article.
It shows the data. (Mis)interpret them according to your own bias.
RACookPE1978 says:
April 26, 2014 at 9:49 am
Might I suggest lag between Atlantic & Pacific basins in the thermohaline circulation, aka ocean conveyor belt, great ocean conveyor, global conveyor belt or meridional overturning circulation (which isn’t quite the same thing)?
The data analysis that was in WUWT, Posted on April 24, 2014 by Willis Eschenbach, and Seattle’s math contribution, are vary appropriate to this discussion. The End Times are statistically different.
The blossoms may vary, but for the climate scientist, its cherry picking time all year.
lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 10:12 am
Alexander Feht says:
April 26, 2014 at 9:02 am
The Japan Cherry Trees link Leif provided is a decidedly AGW promulgating article.
It shows the data. (Mis)interpret them according to your own bias.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I’ve read the original studies by Aono that this article references and they didn’t strike me as particularly alarmist. That said, let’s keep in mind that cherry blossoms as a proxy suffer from some of the same limitations as tree rings. For example, they tell you absolutely zero about temps in the days following the blossom date. They are representative of temps over a very small part of the year. I’ve lived through plenty of harsh winters that that were accompanied by an early spring, and mild winters that were accompanied by a late spring as examples.
One of the reasons the cAGW acolytes wish to use cherry blossoms for their propaganda is because of the Japanese Cherry Blossom paleo reconstruction that showed the MWP warmer than today. After which Japan promptly pulled out of Kyoto in Cancun.
http://www.c3headlines.com/2010/09/peer-reviewed-cherry-blossom-reseach-confirms-japans-medieval-climate-warmer-than-current-one.html
I have just totaled the TSI per cycle between 1889 and 2008 and the CET Maximum temperature per cycle between the same cycles. They correlate 0.966851656.
TSI T Max
1889-1901 206235.1697 166.8
1902-1913 181648.5013 152.7
1913-1922 154349.3985 116.0
1922-1933 180288.8432 140.9
1933-1943 166644.4585 132.0
1943-1953 166645.3448 133.5
1953-1964 172128.3665 143.7
1964-1976 196692.6729 157.2
1976-1985 154380.2623 116.8
1985-1997 196708.3582 162.1
1997-2008 184431.2763 155.6
Correlation 0.966851656
Don’t know why but there you go.
Thanks. Even before reading I guessed that Urban Heat Island effect would be discussed. Here is a snippet.
Now here is something very interesting a bit odd. Only anecdotal though.
Kelvin Vaughan says:
April 26, 2014 at 11:43 am
I have just totaled the TSI per cycle between 1889 and 2008 and the CET Maximum temperature per cycle between the same cycles. They correlate 0.966851656.
The reason they correlate is that the cycles have different lengths – from 10 to 13 years – so simply ‘totaling’ the data will just correlate with the cycle length. If you divide each total by the length of the cycle the square of the correlation [the fraction of the variability that is ‘explained’ by the correlation] falls to R2 = 0.09, thus not significant.
Since Japan and the cherry blossom has be brought up I thought I would take a closer look.
What does the following tell me about global warming? It doesn’t even tell me much about Japanese warming!
By now you have to question the usefulness of the cherry blossom dates for measuring climate. There’s too much noise from UHI.
Kyoto didn’t have a McDonalds in 1950………..
Curse you Red Baron! 8<) I was going to point out that ALL of the recent area-elevation-regional cherry-blossom data you have presented validates the UHI impact around EVERY city worldwide: gradual warming up from the regional LIA "low" and a modern rise proportional to the distance from each city center. (Even the cherry blossom data shows the least recent rise nearest the coastlines, and – along the coast, furthest from the harbor. )
I have heard about Kyoto and the cherry blossom bloom. Here are some before and after aerial photos of the city.
1955 – Single [story] shacks
https://www.flickr.com/photos/40295335@N00/4225480527/sizes/z/in/photostream/
Modern times – Skyscrapers galore!
https://www.flickr.com/photos/hauhu/3976622864/sizes/m/in/photostream/
I think a much better proxy for climate is not the early year start for cherry blossom picking but actually the early year end for my picking of the nose. During the winter time heating season the indoor air dryness causes my normal nose drippings to thicken, thus blocking those vital airway passages. To maintain proper nasal airway function I must use an index finger carefully inserted into that passage to scoop out the blockage. I have noticed over the years an increasingly later date in which I must perform this necessary chore. I have also noticed a later date at which people are willing to be seen with me in public.
Based upon those two foregoing metrics I think, if that later yearly date for the end of my nose picking should shift to an earlier date, well then, society should spend trillions of dollars and a complete downward modification of living standards and individual freedom to insure against an earlier picking of my nose.
(Although my friends, if I still continue to have any, would probably prefer the earlier date rather than the later date.)
The paper on Cherry trees seems to refer to UHI as Climate Change.
WUWT??
Sorry, not before and after photos of the same part of the city, but I hope you get a rough idea.
Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 12:48 pm
Sorry, not before and after photos of the same part of the city, but I hope you get a rough idea.
I have been to Kyoto at about both the times you mention and your general impression is mine as well.
Since reading a bit about Washington’s cherry blossom tree location I thought I would take a closer look. The following is just for the SUMMER.
I wish I could see this abstract or even full paper.
1964
Notes from a Study of the Microclimatology of the Washington, D. C. Area for the Winter and Spring Seasons
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1964.9927020?journalCode=vwws20#.U1wSBZx9CHQ
Gary Pearse, Leif Svalgaard, David M. Hoffer:
I’ve read the article, I’ve seen the data.
It seems that you prefer to skip the first couple of paragraphs.
A CAGW promulgating drivel.
Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 1:12 pm
The phenomenon of an urban heat island was investigated by the use of Landsat/Thematic Mapper data sets…I wish I could see this abstract or even full paper.
http://www.leif.org/EOS/UHI-Effect.pdf
Alexander Feht says:
April 26, 2014 at 1:17 pm
It seems that you prefer to skip the first couple of paragraphs. A CAGW promulgating drivel.
Nonsense. They say: “many of these studies of climate change are from cities where additional warming is associated with urbanization”.
With the following bear in mind modern day Urban Heat Island effects.
RobRoy says:
April 26, 2014 at 12:47 pm
The paper on Cherry trees seems to refer to UHI as Climate Change.
WUWT??
UHI climate change is the proven sort. I’ve no trouble with that. Other candidates for climate change are speculative at best. (LIA recovery not part of this discussion.)
Here in the fringes of Toronto my garden is being graced by snowdrops (as well as crocuses, dwarf iris, species tulips, and scilla). Snowdrops? In late April? They have usually withered away by late March, and I’ve often seen them blooming here in February. Gloomy, late wintery weather is lingering (mind you- also reminiscent of a fine English summer’s day).
The article Lief provided, though a pro-AGW article, actually proves the cycles we’ve been discussing at various points. If you look at the chart they provide it clearly shows that the current peak is no different than the one that existed between 1100-1300 CE. Or, the time we refer to as the “medieval warm period.” It fell, not surprisingly, during the subsequent “Little Ice Age.” It began rising again in the 1800s, when the LIA ended and the current warm period began.
I too live on the fringes of Toronto and I won’t be opening my swimming pool this first May weekend as I normally do, every year. Checking the 14 day forecast, It could be delayed many days yet. That’s your inconvenient truth, right there. I’m calling The Post for some coverage.
Leif Svalgaard has an Obama-like audacity to call “nonsense” my observation that the article he linked is promulgating the AGW ideology.
The article in question begins thus:
Climate change is already having an influence on plants throughout the world, with warming trends creating conditions that cause many plant species to extend to cooler zones on mountain slopes or farther north of their original ranges. Plants are leafing out earlier in the spring and holding leaves longer in the autumn, creating an extended growing season. Of all of the characteristics of plants that relate to global warming, the timing of flowering is the one for which there are the greatest number of observations. These data demonstrate that plants are now flowering earlier than they did a few decades ago, and that changes are mainly a product of temperature increase, rather than a result of other aspects of the weather.
You make your own conclusions. Arguing with Mr. Svalgaard is tantamount to arguing with a drunk bully on the street corner.
Alexander Feht says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:01 pm
“Climate change is already having an influence on plants throughout the world, with warming trends creating conditions that cause many plant species to extend to cooler zones “
Fact 1: the climate changes
Fact 2: it has warmed since the LIA
Fact 3: plant react to that
Fact 4: the authors show that some of the warming is antropogenic [UHI effect] with which nobody will disagree.
Fact 5: you distort their message
Fact 6: I’m not arguing with you, instead I’m attempting to teach you [probably not successfully].
We have this in the conclusion.
http://www.leif.org/EOS/Cherry-Trees-Japan.pdf
The authors could also have concluded the following too. I have substituted their words in bold.
Ohhhhh. Bad bolding. I changed their use of “climate change” for “Urban Heat Islands”
Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:31 pm
Ohhhhh. Bad bolding. I changed their use of “climate change” for “Urban Heat Islands”
No problem. It is clear that the AGW caused by the UHI effect is what the authors have in mind and so convincingly show.
I wonder what’s happening in Washington DC in March?
No matter how much they try to duck and dive, the cherry blossom bloom date reported in the press over a couple of years tells me NOTHING about global climate. Nothing.
Thanks. I just wich Warmists would focus a little less of man-made greenhouse gases and onto UHI. AGW is global with these folks by the way. The whole planet averaged.
Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:49 pm
AGW is global with these folks by the way. The whole planet averaged.
Yes, but the UHI is also an Anthropogenic influence and because so many stations are in or near cities will show up in the global average too. People try to correct for that, but poorly, IMHO. In any event, the Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.
lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:34 pm
No problem. It is clear that the AGW caused by the UHI effect is what the authors have in mind and so convincingly show.
====
I’m missing something here and don’t get it…..
UHI to me would be like local weather…..AGW or climate change or global warming would be, well, like global……
yet, the paper Leif linked seems to say that UHI and climate change are one and the same???
…plants moving north, etc
lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:55 pm
Yes, but the UHI is also an Anthropogenic influence and because so many stations are in or near cities will show up in the global average too. People try to correct for that, but poorly, IMHO. In any event, the Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.
===
woops….Murphy….we posted at the same time
ok, I get the influence part……but they seem to refer to both as the same
To me, they are no where near the same.
Latitude says:
April 26, 2014 at 2:58 pm
UHI to me would be like local weather…..AGW or climate change or global warming would be, well, like global……
Because so many stations are in or near cities, their UHI effect will show up in the global average too. People try to correct for this, but poorly methinks
…plants moving north, etc
There is also genuine global warming: coming out of the LIA and all that. To separate what is what [is not] is hard.
Latitude says:
April 26, 2014 at 3:01 pm
ok, I get the influence part……but they seem to refer to both as the same
To me, they are no where near the same.
We should not try to over-interpret too much. The paper is really about cherry blossom dates in Japan, influenced by both GW and UHI. And hard to separate.
got it….now I just need to let it sink in!
I wish they had made a clearer distinction…it would give more credence to everything else they said
thanks Leif
Good one!
In the spirit of cherry picking: I went over to skepticblog and read the absolute sludge of Prothero’s “it’s not warming”. We (the skeptics) have cherry picked if we choose to take NOW and back up ANY date backwards unless it is at least some 50 years or so it seems. Not allowed to talk about 20 years. Well, the comments were even worse.
I have decided I am going to tell every warmist unless they act, they are hypocrites and have lost any moral high ground. Had a collegue tell me that we need to enact carbon tax so we can “lead the world” then the problem will get solved.
My view: he wants me to pay for “leading the world” so finally “all together now” we can fix the problem, well he has to “lead me first”. If he isn’t walking or biking, reducing his dependence on coal, growing his own vegatables, getting off the grid I won’t bother to even listen to a single comment any more.
I would love to see a 100 pictures of Dana N., S. Lew, Turney, Mann, et. al. roofs and put them right next to a picture of Anthony’s solar roof. Who walks the walk? Time to make them prove they are men of conviction.
I think I am going to start handing out the Pre-amble to the constitution and encourage them to read about how men of conviction act, besides talk.
Other wise they are just a real life Monty Python skit in the “Life of Brian” the committee
You have got to feel pity for the Japanese guys and their study of the Kyoto (?) cherry blossom dates. Just another way to measure the UHI effect. What a waste of years of work.
Again thanks to Lief for REALITY CHECK..
Here is a Japanese record of Cherry Blossoms spanning the last 1000 years
http://www.leif.org/EOS/Cherry-Trees-Japan.pdf
“The dates of cherry tree festivals in Japan have emerged as one of the most important sources
of information on the impacts of climate change on plants. The data set is exceptionally detailed, and extends back in time more than any other known data set on plant flowering times. “
I notice a stark, obvious, upward trend from 1800 ONWARD.
You know if those darned pioneer out here in Minnesocold had just used HORSES and handcarts instead of SUV’s, we wouldn’t have a global warming problem. (Whoops, my bad..first IC engine vehicles in MN were around 1910..and the first NOTICEABLE CO2 increases, Mona Loha data were after WWII. Oh, heck, what’s an error of a hundred and fifty years about anyway!
You say that the “Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.” I obviously have a serious comprehension problem and I will back you if you agree that I cannot understand. I see their UHI statement but the overwhelming thrust of their article refers to ‘climate change’. My understanding of ‘climate change’ is NOT UHI. UHI has been one of the biggest gripes from our host on WUWT as per global warming or climate change.
Petty points aside, we know what Warmists mean by global warming and climate change and IT IS NOT UHI.
What’s very evident from these comments is that an alarming amount of you don’t give a fig for my tomatoes or spuds :/
Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 6:15 pm
You say that the “Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.” I obviously have a serious comprehension problem and I will back you if you agree that I cannot understand. I see their UHI statement but the overwhelming thrust of their article refers to ‘climate change’.
My reading of the article is that they say the climate has changed. I’ll accept that: the climate changes all the time. Also that it is getting warmer. I’ll accept that too as we are coming out of the LIA, and finally that some of that warming as reflected in the cherry blossom dates is clearly due to the UHI effect. What is there not to understand?
April 26, 2014 at 4:16 pm | joel says
—
Not at all, they have decisively discovered the UHI effect of urbanisation of the cities. As Leif has pointed out, the study shows both the global warming resulting from the gradual release from cold of the LIA and the effects of UHI … “And hard to separate.” Extrapolating this, imagine how impossibly difficult it must be then to extract CAGW from the record.
zootcadillac says:
April 26, 2014 at 6:21 pm
Because of global cooling (or at least in Eastern Oregon), I don’t even bother planting tomatoes any more until May.
Good. The point of the poster’s letter is spot on. We cannot arrive at any conclusions over a few years of observations.
I’ve distorted nothing, Mr. Svalgaard. I quoted the first paragraph of the article without any changes, and invited all who have no reason to close their eyes to see it for what it is.
Leif, you are not new to WUWT. You know full well what they mean by global warming and climate change. Look at the headline of the paper you referenced.
They could have said
You may see UHI as climate change but our opponents don’t. I applaud you on your great intellectual effort, but I doubt it will work here. Maybe most of us just don’t understand. That’s Leif. 😉
Alexander Feht says:
April 26, 2014 at 6:37 pm
I’ve distorted nothing, Mr. Svalgaard. I quoted the first paragraph of the article without any changes
But then added your own misguided and biased interpretation [as the paragraph does not support your contention] and called the whole thing drivel. It seems to me that you must search for drivel much closer to your heart. But perhaps the German proverb Jedem das Seine is applicable here.
Cherry blossoms flowering early is usually a sign that a North Korean leader has had a birthday.
LewSkannen says:
April 26, 2014 at 6:53 pm
And needs a new haircut.
Jimbo says:
April 26, 2014 at 6:39 pm
They could have said
Urban Heat Islands and Cherry Tree Blossom Festivals in Japan
But then they would have been incorrect, because there is both climate change and UHI.
What’s this? Leif has an argument on WUWT, refuses point blank to consider any other viewpoint than his own? Shocker.
Next up: One legged ducks, swimming in circles or just an illusion?
zootcadillac says:
April 26, 2014 at 6:57 pm
What’s this? Leif has an argument on WUWT, refuses point blank to consider any other viewpoint than his own?
What’s your problem. You have your viewpoint and I have mine. Do you consider my viewpoint?
I don’t think, with respect Anthony, that when Cherry blossoms are late in flowering, the temp of the soil is a very good factor for trees (deciduous) coming into flower or leaf. Also in 1969, after spending 10 months in Bermuda, we stayed in London, and they were having an Indian summer, in late October, and there were still leaves on deciduous trees, we then traveled up to Lincoln and they had snow and sleet.
But on the Northern Tablelands of NSW, a late frost and hail, destroyed all flowering fruit trees, in an area where temps had been very mild. However, the night time temps were very low, and my tomatoes would flower and not set fruit.
But late flowering indicates the soil and moisture are just not warm enough. This could be a signal the warmer weather is late this year.
lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 7:01 pm
What’s your problem. You have your viewpoint and I have mine. Do you consider my viewpoint?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yup, and dismissed it.
The thread’s semantic urination contest is a deliberate attempt to blur the various contributors to global warming. So-called climate science isn’t quite sure there even was a Little Ice Age, let alone how to separate UHI, Little Ice Age recovery, and any other cause of warming. It’s convenient for warmists (who knows about Leif) to allow deliberately imprecise use of language to convey the false message of CAGW.
Meanwhile, real science (quantum mechanics) has accurately measured the gyromagnetic ratio of the electron to 1 part in a trillion (with a T).
Until “climate science” can play with the big boys, the least they could do is get the vocabulary right. If you can’t even clearly describe the problem, it’s a little tough to solve it.
Chip Javert says:
April 26, 2014 at 9:02 pm
The thread’s semantic urination contest is a deliberate attempt to blur the various contributors to global warming.
My viewpoint is
1) climate changes
2) it is now warmer than during the LIA
3) some of that is due to UHI creeping into the global record
Where is the blur?
Chip Javert says:
April 26, 2014 at 9:02 pm
Yup, and dismissed it.
And which of my three points do you dismiss?
zoot – I didn’t know you grew tomatoes in parts of England. Nor grapes. I lived in Liverpool Lancs for my first few years, and my grandfather grew tomatoes in a greenhouse. I know in Lincolnshire in the early sixties, we couldn’t grow toms easily and that was quite a temperate area.
You could put up a frame around your early sowings. Just a plastic one. Can’t help you with potatoes, we grow them in Guyra just a bit higher than us. Keep them well mulched. But I know my tomatoes suffered badly from low night temps and although flowered would not set fruit. I have given up growing them now, buy from the supermarket. We have a large tomato production place in Guyra, and they are grown in a large greenhouse and they are pollonated by hand. They were trying to import bumble bees but were not allowed. Some import restrictions involved.
Give the potatoes a bit more time to sprout. Your soil is yet too cold. Have you tried putting a cooking thermometer in the soil? I do this with some sensitive pot plants.
Just a short note, when I was freezing during one September general election day, I was with a Green who boasted as having a B.Sc, I had a BA majoring in archaeology and palaeoanthropology. When I mentioned the LIA, he said there was no proof of this. Then I went on to detail that growing grapes was out for some years, but they turned the grape presses into printing presses. There is no one so blind as those that won’t see.
lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 9:07 pm
Chip Javert says:
April 26, 2014 at 9:02 pm
Yup, and dismissed it.
And which of my three points do you dismiss?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Uhhh…all of ’em. The semantic urination contest has so tainted the conversation that it no longer has credibility.
As I stated previously (which you’re free to dismiss): Until “climate science” can play with the big boys, the least they could do is get the vocabulary right. If you can’t even clearly describe the problem, it’s a little tough to solve it.
It looks like you are the one who cannot see other people’s viewpoints, Mr. Svalgaard, without resorting to histrionic condescension and infantile insults. But this time you’ve surpassed yourself. “Dem jedem das seine” is not just a German proverb, it is an anti-Semitic slogan used by the lowest scum on Earth at the entrances of their concentration camps. I am sure there are those who will take into account your unfortunate choice of proverbial expressions. Have a good night, my Aryan friend.
Good Grief! Climates of the World were established many years ago by looking for the lines between where certain plants grew or did well and where they did not. The terminology today has changed but the concept remains the same. The idea that the World has one climate, measured by a single temperature is laughable.
http://geographyias.blogspot.com/2011/04/koppen-climate-classification-system.html
“… Dr. Wladimir Koppen of the University of Graz, in Austria. Koppen was both a climatologist and a plant geographer, so his main interest lay in finding climate boundaries that coincided approximately with boundaries between major vegetation types.”
A major city changes things and the result fits into the Köppen concepts. The UN-IPCC idea of climate by single number is just something someone made up, and is silly.
You know I can’t find where Leif quotes. ‘Jedem das seine” was over Buchenwald, that meant ‘To each his own, idiomatically ‘everyone gets what he deserves” The others had ‘Arbeit macht frei’
Work will make you free. The Aryan race came through North India, certainly not blonde haired and blue eyed. I have to sign out my computer is so slow, supposed to be 25 Mbps.
Leif:
With apologies, a more reasoned response to why I dismiss the flower petal discussion:
(1) Nobody actually has the “original” instrumented climate data – the Climategate boys (Mann, Jones, et al) testified in a US court that it was lost in a fire;
(2) Computer transforms used to manipulate “original” data have not been made public;
(3) Temperature data has been materially revised in 3-4 of the IPCC 5-year Assessment Reports. Without data and transform codes, it’s been done on a “trust me” basis.
(4) Frankly, given we’re haggling over a claimed warming anomaly of 8/10ths of a degree Celsius since 1880, under these circumstances it’s difficult to accept the claim that we know what the instrumented record really is (or was). Sooner or later, satellite data should remediate this problem.
I am interested in your response to the above, but I just wasn’t trained to do physics like that at Ga Tech. DATA IS A BIG DEAL FOR ME (not to mention Galileo, Newton, Einstein and Feynman, but I digress).
I accept there has been warming. I accept mankind is contributing somewhat to increased CO2. However, not withstanding 75-100 computer models failing at the 95% confidence level, I have not seen a rigorous physics theory of anthropomorphic CO2 warming (you know: something on the order of a testable prediction of photons interacting with atmospheric gas molecules, etc).
Thus, imprecise semantic arguments about 1000 years of Japanese flower petals is easy for me to dismiss.
jedem das seine – suum cuique; e.g. Platon.
MISUSED by the Nazis to a cynical attack on civil rights.
think this debates distract from the major point UHI.
brgs – Hans
When Leif said ‘Jeden
das Seine’ this was a classical citation on behalves of personal rights.
He could have said ‘As You Like It’ – Shakespeare.
I read ‘your beliefs are youre own business’.
The troubles only stem from not mention the classic original – suum cuique.
brg – Hans
type mismatch: ‘JedeM das Seine’ – please correct / if you like to /
;-/
Global warming has shifted the cherry blossoms so early that this is actually next years bloom occurring now!
More early spring claims for Surrey in the UK. A few commenters dowse the claims with actual data.
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/apr/25/plantwatch-spring-trees-bud-leaf
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/actualmonthly/13/Tmin/England.gif
Chip Javert says:
April 26, 2014 at 10:12 pm
“And which of my three points do you dismiss?”
Uhhh…all of ‘em.
Well, that puts you so far out that you have no credibility left.
Alexander Feht says:
April 26, 2014 at 10:33 pm
it is an anti-Semitic slogan used by the lowest scum on Earth
I figured you would know German better than Latin.
Chip Javert says:
April 26, 2014 at 11:37 pm
With apologies, a more reasoned response to why I dismiss the flower petal discussion:
None of this has any bearing on the Japanese data and their interpretation of them. Data is golden and cannot be just ‘dismissed’.
Johann wundersamer says:
April 27, 2014 at 2:11 am
suum cuique was of course what I meant, but the German version served additionally as a honey pot to yank Mr. Feht’s chain.
Read Steinbeck’s”Grapes of Wrath.” There is a reference to migrant workers harvesting citrus crops in southern Georgia during the depression. Today southern Georgia is too cool during the winters to support commercial citrus production. I’m just a mouth breathing, knuckle dragging, monobrow, slack jawed, stoop shouldered, wrench turning engineer and should know better to question obvious authorities like Hanson and Trenbrith (the tree ring guy) and Mann but I thought that I’d point out Steinbeck’s reference. You know me…
Here in Edinburgh (Scotland) we’ve had a huge (as in huge) number of daffodils and narcissi this year and the cherry blossom is later than last year.
P.S. I hate the jeering tone of some of the comments on this site.
lsvalgaard says:
April 27, 2014 at 4:35 am
Chip Javert says:
April 26, 2014 at 10:12 pm
“And which of my three points do you dismiss?”
Uhhh…all of ‘em.
Well, that puts you so far out that you have no credibility left.
================================================
Given the choice of being harangued by you, or being true to Galileo/Newton/Einstein/Feynman scientific methodology and response to real data, I easily choose the later.
I’m not worried about your opinion of my credibility, and that was before you inexplicitly injected the vile anti-Semitic speech.
If you have the self-awareness to review your performance on this conversation thread, you may want to apologize, change your email ID or both.
Chip Javert says:
April 27, 2014 at 8:11 am
Given the choice of being harangued by you, or being true to Galileo/Newton/Einstein/Feynman scientific methodology and response to real data, I easily choose the later.
The Japanese cherry blossom dates are real data. Be true to that, then.
I’m not worried about your opinion of my credibility, and that was before you inexplicitly injected the vile anti-Semitic speech.
Is a German translation of Suum Cuique vile? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suum_cuique .
It takes certain low-life persons to misinterpret my quote.
If you have the self-awareness to review your performance on this conversation thread, you may want to apologize, change your email ID or both.
I do not [like you] hide begin a fake ID.
Bushido! We must stand strong, like the cherry blossom, or die trying!
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQooui1eRhw?feature=player_detailpage&w=640&h=360%5D
As an aside, I do like some of the monikers/aliases/Fake IDs used here. I have never seen fit to hide behind a handle myself – I am proud of all 38 inches of me, from the top of my head to my curly-haired feet – why would I misrepresent myself? But I do enjoy some of the obviously fake handles. Among my current favorites is Box of Rocks – which appeals to me on multiple levels – with More Soylent Green! and Follow The Money following closely behind – all subject to change, of course. As always – well done, ladies and gents.
lsvalgaard says:
April 27, 2014 at 8:24 am
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
(yawn).
Chip Javert says:
April 27, 2014 at 12:05 pm
(yawn).
Jedem das Seine
lsvalgaard says:
April 26, 2014 at 12:02 pm
Thanks