The Week That Was: 2014-03-29 (March 29, 2014) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: Any body of scientists that adopts pressure group tactics is endangering its status as the guardian of principles of scientific philosophy that are worth keeping. By Charles Fleming [H/t Alex Henney on Bishop Hill] Number of the Week: 34.2% & 23.3%
NIPCC in Washington – April 7 to 10
Presentations by Lead Authors/Editors and Others
Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change
Volumes 1, 2 & 3 of Climate Change Reconsidered II
The Physical Science, Biological Impacts, and Economics, Energy, and Policy
Open to the Public
Monday April 7 – Noon — Competitive Enterprise Institute – Light Lunch (Seating Limited)
Contact: Myron Ebell
1899 L ST NW Floor 12
Tuesday April 8 – 8 am Breakfast at the Capitol Hill Club
300 1st St SE
Contact: Aaron Stover
11:30 Lunch at the Cato Institute – co-sponsored by the George C. Marshall Foundation
1000 Massachusetts Ave NW
Contact at Cato: Rachel Goldman
Contact at Marshall: Jeff Kueter
Wednesday, April 9 8 am Press conference, National Press Club, Bloomberg Room
Thursday, April 10 Briefings on Capitol Hill (Not open to the public)
9th International Conference on Climate Change
Press Release, The Heartland Institute, Mar 17, 2014
July 7 – 9 — Las Vegas, Nevada
Includes the Findings of the New Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) Climate Change Reconsidered II, Volumes 1, 2, and 3
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
NIPCC: More reports from the independent researchers of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) are on the way. Volume 2 of Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts is being published and the Summary for Policymakers is available on the web. No doubt this report will be in stark contrast with a report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which covers some of the same material. The main difference is that the NIPCC includes material that the IPCC conveniently ignores. This material emphasizes the large benefits to plant life, the environment, and humanity from enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). If the UN IPCC report follows the patterns of the past, it will contain alarming comments of possible harms far in the future from enhanced atmospheric CO2 – catastrophic anthropogenic (man-made) global warming (CAGW). NIPCC has found no strong evidence that CAGW exists. The UN IPCC used models to make claims of future CAGW. But, the models have never been validated, thus are purely speculative, not scientific. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
IPCC: The latest report of the IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilities is due to be released on March 31, 2014. Initial leaks indicated that the tone would be moderate compared with the alarmist tone of the last report, which contained many errors of fact, such as the glaciers in the Himalaya Mountains will melt by 2040. However, this optimism may have been premature. Later reports indicate there is a hardening of lines among the alarmists, which is to be expected. Too many politicians, climate scientists, and leaders of Green organizations has staked their reputations of the promotion of CAGW. They will not back down quietly.
One could assesses the demands of the alarmists with the announcement of the Summary for Policymakers for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in October, 2013. Even though the climate models on which predictions of CAGW are failing epically — and that after 35 years of research, after spending tens of billions of dollars, failed to narrow the range of estimated temperature values for a doubling of CO2, controllers of the report insisted they are 95% confident in the findings of the report. An indication that the less alarmist view of the proceedings may not be correct is the resignation of Richard Tol, a convening lead author of the chapter on economics. He requested his name be removed from the report.
In other work, Tol, an economist at the University of Sussex, estimated that for most of this century human CO2 emissions will be beneficial to humanity, only causing net harm near the end of the century. Strident alarmists would consider him a heretic. One can only wait to see what dominates the UN IPCC, will it be rigorous science, or raw political power? For a wide range of speculation see links under Problems in the Orthodoxy.
US Exports: Russia’s venture into the Crimea is increasing political calls for opening the US energy markets to exporting oil and natural gas — particularly, exporting natural gas to Europe, lessening dependence on Russian gas. Companies such as Dow argue such actions will raise the cost of natural gas in the US, squashing the only substantial new job growth that is occurring. A study by NERA Economic Consulting, updated in February, shows that the increase in US prices will be minor.
Dow has formed a group called America’s Energy Advantage. This group largely ignores the costs of transporting the natural gas from wellhead in the US to city gate in Europe. NERA estimates these costs, in 2018, will amount to $6.33/Mcf (2012 dollars). The costs include the costs of new pipelines on both ends, liquefaction, shipping, and regasification. Thus, natural gas in the US will have still a significant price advantage over Europe.
Other objections being raised is that it will take too long. It may be too late for the Crimea, but not too late to influence other Russian actions. Some brought up the experience in Greece. When another option to Russian gas appeared, Gazprom renegotiated its prices, lowering them.
There is speculation whether President Obama will encourage oil and gas exports. Perhaps his inaction on the Keystone pipeline is the best indicator. The pipeline requires no government grants or subsidies – just government approvals. It was to bring heavy oil from Canada, the largest US trading partner, to refineries on the Gulf Coast, in part replacing heavy oil from Venezuela, an unreliable source. The southern part of the pipeline has been built. After over five years, the northern part, over which the Administration has control has not been approved. Instead, the Administration; is using it to leverage campaign contributions for the Democratic Party. See Article #3 and links under Energy Issues – Non-US and Washington’s Control of Energy.
Alaska Squeeze: Washington continues to squeeze the oil industry in Alaska, which once provided 10% of the oil consumed by the US. Washington’s policy threatens the Alaskan pipeline. At its peak of 1988, the throughput of the pipeline averaged 2,032,928 bbl. per day. In 2013, the average was 534,480 bbl. per day, a drop of almost 74%. If volume drops to about 300,000 bbl. per day the pipeline will freeze and cannot be restarted. By law, once it stops, this valuable national asset would have to be disassembled.
By continuing to squeeze oil production, Washington is squeezing the budget of Alaska, which depends heavily on royalties from oil. Washington is preventing development the Coastal Plain (ANWR), the National Petroleum Reserve, Indian Lands, and hobbling development of the Chukchi Sea OCS work by Shell. In contrast, Russian is proceeding aggressively with its development of the oil reserves in its portion the Chukchi Sea. One joint ventures includes Shell. Among the Russian fields being explored is one about 40 to 50 miles from Shell’s US leaseholds and about 150 miles from the Russian coast.
US recoverable resources are estimated to be 40 Billion barrels of oil. Congress must decide if a tiny portion of ANWR can be developed, the balance is under the control of the Administration. The Administration refused to permit a 3-D survey of ANWR. The speculation is that the Administration does not want the public to know the extent of the resources that it is locking-up. The State has sued the Federal government on the grounds that, based on an interpretation of the agreement which provided statehood, Alaska has the right to develop oil and national gas on its lands, and Indians have the right to develop oil and natural gas on their lands. It will be interesting to see how the courts interpret this state rights issue.
Japan: In wake of the tsunami that wiped out the cooling pumps of the Fukushima reactor, the government of Japan implemented stringent regulations for nuclear power plants. It appears that many of the nuclear plants shut down after the Fukushima incident will not be reopened because it is uneconomic to modify them to meet the new regulations. Japan’s answer to low-cost base-load electricity is coal. After China, Japan is the second largest importer of coal and may be building more coal-fired power plants. See Article #4.
Regulators on the March: One of the pernicious features of the Clean Water Act and the Endangered Species Act is that they give great power to government agencies to determine the need for regulations, which the same agency then implements. The courts have deferred to the government agencies on the science justifying the expansion of government control. There is no counterbalancing power to the actions of these agencies. Often these actions result in significant costs to private parties that continue to own the land but are subject to government control of its use.
The EPA and the Corps of Engineers have announced the expansion of control of significant amounts of private and state-owned lands under the Clean Water Act. EPA uses broad definitions of waters that it can control, such as leaves made wet from rain are waters of the US. Similarly, US Fish and Wildlife Service uses narrow definitions of species to include minor local adaption of a species to be a separate species. It has announced the lesser prairie chicken as threatened, which will give it control of major sections of five Western states. Several years ago, Fish and Wildlife listed the polar bear as threatened, even though populations are growing. See links under EPA and other Regulators on the March
McIntyre: In 2012, Steven McIntyre filed a Freedom of Information Act request to the University of Western Australia. He was seeking the data behind a survey by Lewandowsky et al. that found that skeptics are conspiracy theorists. According to McIntyre, the survey data was manipulated after the fact. Based on other information received, McIntyre filed for a retraction of the study. University of Western Australia flatly denied request for retraction. Apparently the Vice Chancellor’s feelings were hurt, accusing McIntyre of inflammatory statements and becoming unbalanced on the issue. The university policy is that research data must be available to other researchers. See link under Climategate Continued
Green Revolution: March 25, 2014 marked the 100th anniversary of the birth of Norman Borlaug. He was the primary person responsible for the Green Revolution that greatly expanded food productivity, allowing many farmers to break the shackles of subsistence agriculture.
By way of contrast, March 29, 2014 marked the symbolic effort of the other green revolution to turn off electric lights for one hour. This second green revolution is largely for the wealthy, demanding that those less fortunate not be allowed reliable, affordable electricity provided fossil fuels. See links under Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine and Environmental Industry.
Number of the Week: 34.2% & 23.3% The Census Bureau reported “Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industries were the most rapidly growing part of our nation’s economy over the last several years,” From 2007 to 2012 the number of employees rose 23.3 percent to 903,641 and the revenues grew 34.2 percent to $555.2 billion. Of course, most if not all of the growth came from oil and gas extraction, and the data do not reflect the growth in 2013. Also, the data do not reflect the job growth is in service industries and industries that benefit from reliable supplies of oil and low-cost natural gas. This growth is not the result of policies implemented by the current Administration.
For the numbered articles below, please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. The Coming Paradigm Shift on Climate
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Mar 27, 2014
2. Climate Forecast: Muting the Alarm
Even while it exaggerates the amount of warming, the IPCC is becoming more cautious about its effects.
By Matt Ridley, WSJ, Mar 27, 2014
3. Energy Seriousness for Europe
Shale gas, not windmills, can free the continent from reliance on Russia.
Editorial, WSJ, Mar 27, 2014
4. Japan’s Answer to Fukushima: Coal Power
Many Nuclear Plants Are Too Expensive to Retrofit to Meet Tightened Safety Standards
By Mari Iwata, WSJ, Mar 27, 2014
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
UWA Vice-Chancellor Refuses Lewandowsky Data
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Mar 28, 2014
The ‘Fine’ Paper That Had To Be Pulled
By Michael Kile, Quadrant, Mar 26, 2014
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Summary for Policy Makers, Nongovernment International Panel on Climate Change, April 2014
‘Warming Interrruptus’ – Causes for The Pause
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Mar 26, 2014 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: A summary of the after-the-fact excuses why there no longer is a warming trend as the models, and alarmists, predicted. A video and a link to the paper.]
IPCC Scientists Knew Data and Science Inadequacies Contradicted Certainties Presented to Media, Public and Politicians, But Remained Silent.
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Mar 22, 2014
[SEPP Comment: A lengthy post explaining some of the weaknesses in the models and some of the self-serving pronouncements of the IPCC.]
Uncovering deceptions in the climate change debate
By Jay Lehr, Daily Caller, Mar 28, 2014
[SEPP Comment: A review of Tim Ball’s new book: The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science.]
By Vincent Gray, NZ Climate Truth Newsletter No. 329, Mar 24, 2014
AR5 inquiry follow-up
By Nic Lewis, Bishop Hill, Mar 27, 2014
[SEPP Comment: More on the comments of the Lewis/Crok report criticizing the IPCC Summary for Policymakers.]
Regional Newspaper Story Educating Public on Climate Reality – maybe news you can use
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Mar 26, 2014
Defending the Orthodoxy
Press Release No. 985
World Meteorological Organization
UN scientists see grim future if no climate action
By Richard Ingham, AFP, Mar 23, 2014
Questioning the Orthodoxy
The Denier Mantle Moves On
By Charles Battig, American Thinker, Mar 28, 2014
The IPCC: Providing ‘Hope for Our Earth’
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Mar 26, 2014 [H/t Climate Depot]
“What We Really Know” and What the AAAS Failed to Mention.
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Mar 23, 2014
If People Are Like Polar Bears, We’ll Be Fine
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, Mar 28, 2014
The Collapsing Souffle of Climate Change
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Mar 27, 2014
A Mother, a Daughter & a New IPCC Leak
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Mar 25, 2014
[SEPP Comment: The question for the ages: When does an IPCC final report become the final report?]
Climate Boffins Target Depression
Engineering the Emissions Target Depression
By Viv Forbes, NCTSP, Mar 25, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Apparently the anti-CO2 politicians do not understand population growth and arithmetic.]
The Washington Post Responds to Me, and I Reply to the Post
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, Mar 22, 2014
Problems in the Orthodoxy
At U.N. climate talks, many seek sterner warnings of GDP losses
By Alister Doyle, Reuters, Mar 28, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Governments reject IPCC economist’s ‘meaningless’ climate costs estimate
UK-based Richard Tol, who has criticised overall report, accused of underestimating costs of climate change in economics section
By Suzanne Goldenberg, Guardian, Mar 28, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Prof Richard Tol wants his name removed from “exaggerated” IPCC report
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Mar 27, 2014
Global Warming Will Not Cost the Earth, Leaked IPCC Report Admits
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Mar 26, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Leading Scientist Removes His Name from “Silly” and “Apocalyptic” Climate Change Document
By Nick Hallett, Breitbart, Mar 25, 2014
Climate change: the debate is about to change radically
By Andrew Lilico, Telegraph, UK, Mar 25, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Dissent among scientists over key climate impact report
By Matt McGrath, BBC, Mar 24, 2014 [H/t Climate Depot]
Spiegel Reports: “Leading Scientist Leaves IPCC …Dispute Surrounding UN Climate Panel Escalates”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 27, 2014
U.N. climate author withdraws because the report has become ‘too alarmist’
By Cheryl K. Chumley, The Washington Times, Mar 27, 2014
“They will adapt,” Mr. Tol said, Reuters reported. “Farmers are not stupid.”
EU leaders delay decision on climate targets
By Dave Keating, EuropeanVoice, Mar 21, 2014
IPCC admission from new report: ‘no evidence climate change has led to even a single species becoming extinct’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 28, 2014
New UN Report Is Cautious On Making Climate Predictions
By Fred Pearce, Environment 360, Mar 24, 2014
Secret UN Report: IPCC Doubts Prognoses On Species Extinction
By Axel Bojanowski, Spiegel Online, Via GWPF, Mar 24, 2014
Seeking a Common Ground
EconTalk: Christy and Emanuel
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Mar 24 2014
Nate Silver, Roger Pielke, and journalism ethics
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Mar 29, 2014
More scientific mavericks needed
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc., Mar 23, 2014
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
The Greening of Asia
Reference: Ichii, K., Kondo, M., Okabe, Y., Ueyama, M., Kobayashi, H., Lee, S.-J., Saigusa, N., Zhu, Z. and Myneni, R.B. 2013. Recent changes in terrestrial gross primary productivity in Asia from 1982 to 2011. Remote Sensing 5: 6043-6062.
Needing More Food, but Biting the Hand that Feeds Us
Reference: Muldowney, J., Mounsey, J. and Kinsella, L. 2013. Agriculture in the climate change negotiations; ensuring that food production is not threatened. Animal 7:s2: 206-211
Urban Heat Islands of China
Reference: He, Y., Jia, G., Hu, Y. and Zhou, Z. 2013. Detecting urban warming signals in climate records. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 30: 1143-1153.
The Sad State of Sub-Daily Precipitation in CMIP5 Climate Models
Reference: Rosa, D. and Collins, W.D. 2013. A case study of subdaily simulated and observed continental convective precipitation: CMIP5 and multiscale global climate models comparison. Geophysical Research Letters 40: 10.1002/2013GL057987.
Just How Angry Was Our Summer?
By Des Moore, Quadrant, Mar 28, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Australia’s official temperature takers may be experiencing a fever.]
New paper finds global sea level rise has decelerated 31% since 2002 along with the ‘pause’ of global warming
By Staff Writer, Hockey Schtick, Mar 23, 2014
Link to paper: The rate of sea-level rise
By Anny Cazenave, et al., Nature Climate Change, Mar 23, 2014
Study: Many US weather stations show cooling, maximum temperatures flat
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 25, 2014
Disasters Cost More Than Ever — But Not Because of Climate Change
By Roger Pielke Jr, FiveThirtyEightScience, Mar 19, 2014 [H/t Climate Depot]
Google Could Greatly Improve Weather Forecasts: Will It Take the Necessary Steps?
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Mar 26, 2014
Thousands of Ducks Die as Great Lakes Ice Covers Food Supply
By Mark Leberfinger, AccuWeather, Mar 22, 2014
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
New study shows Arctic sea ice extent ~6000 years ago was much less than today
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 24, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Confirming some prior studies.]
Arctic Sea Ice Appears to Have Reached Maximum And Other Ice Observations
By Just The Facts, WUWT, Mar 25, 2014
Glacial advances in Nyainqentanglha maybe linked to North Atlantic cooling
By Staff Writers, Beijing, China (SPX), Mar 24, 2014
Latest admission from NSIDC on forecasting sea ice extent is a far cry from ‘Arctic death spriral’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Mar 28, 2014
New paper finds no effect of “acidification” on plankton from CO2 levels 8 times higher than today
By Staff Writer The Hockey Schtick, Mar 26, 2014
Link to paper: Response of benthic foraminifera to ocean acidification in their natural sediment environment: a long-term culturing experiment
By K. Haynert, J. Schönfeld, R. Schiebel, B. Wilson, and J. Thomsen, Biogeosciences, Mar 26, 2014
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
How one man battled the bureaucrats to save a billion lives
By Marc Sidwell, City A.M. Mar 27, 2014
Israel no longer worried about its water supply, thanks to desalination plants
By Joel Greenberg, McClatchy DC, Mar 20, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Deep Ocean Current May Slow Due to Climate Change
By Staff Writers, Philadelphia PA(SPX), Mar 24, 2014
Some comments on the Royal Society report
By Alex Henney, Bishop Hill, Mar 25, 2014
U.S. National Academy of Sciences: Doubling Down on Climate Alarmism (and taking science down a notch with it)
By James Rust, Master Resource, Mar 27, 2014
Geographical magazine does climate
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Mar 22, 2014
BBC Trust Distances Itself From Executive Who Ordered To Gag Climate Sceptics
By David Rose, Daily Mail, Via GWPF, Mar 23, 2014
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Mar 23, 2014
[SEPP Comment: BBC: No more debates between global warming promoters and skeptics – skeptics not allowed, they may beat the promoters.]
Dishonest Government Data A Threat To Our Civilization
By Victor Davis Hanson, IBD, Mar 27, 2014