By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The circumpolar vortex has put this season into the record-books. The United States has just gone through its coldest interequinoctial winter (equinox to equinox) in a century. Hat-tip to CFACT, which has just sent me the graph.
The last U.S. winter colder than this one was in 1911/12, before the First World War.
Thank you, America! Most of Britain has had an unusually mild and wet winter, for you have had more than your fair share of the Northern Hemisphere’s cold weather this season.
Global warming? What global warming?
Well ya know, it’s just all that hot glowbull air headin’ north over the Pacific Ocean that just displaced the cold polar vortex to sit over the U.S.
I’d insert “(Dec. 21 thru March 21)” (or whatever) before “winter.”
REPLY: I did that briefly, then realized your suggestion was dead wrong based on the definition of interequinoctial.
Do try to limit your suggestions to correct ones. Thanks, Anthony
But I was told that northern hemisphere winters would get warmer. What went wrong?
Could it be that the models have a problem?
Christopher Moncton of Benchley is full of it. I looked at that same graph, and I see the 99th warmest winter in the past 100 years. Fear not, warmistas. Global warming is alive and well.
Interesting that an English (UKIP) politician equates ‘US’ with ‘global’ !
Here are the climateers (in the past) predicting warmer winters. Carbon dioxide is a funny old gas.
No matter what vindication we feel with these numbers, we must remember what we have said: one winter in one are does not a trend make.
Meanwhile at the other end of the globe, the Dome A AWS has recorded another minimum temp ( -91C) that exceeds the previous world record minimum of -89.2C. This is remarkable considering that it is only March.
Northern hemisphere winter snow extent trending up since 1967. Spring is down though. But it’s still worse than we thought, it’s all our fault and we must act now.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1
Right now, several hundred million Americans, Canadians and visitors are WISHING for global warming.
Two words,
The Sun
My feeling is that the recent big increase in solar activity since October is the reason for such long cold winter. PDO increased all winter also. Cold winters in the CONUS since 1970’s all happened near Solar cycle bottom but with on upward curve of in activity of cycles.
2013-2014 winter in conus was at peak of solar cycle #24 but the twist is that happened on upward second peak. Since the cycle has been very quiet the 4 month spike in TSI was comparable to upward curve spikes on past solar cycles.
We should not see such a cold winter in conus till the upward curve on the next cycle #25. Winter can still be cold and should experience lots of blocking between now and new upward curve on solar cycle #25.
Any thoughts?
Based on the graph presented I count it as the 116th warmest winter of the past 118 years.
On the development index ranking Arkansas is perennially second last in the nation. Think of that as the winter of 2013/2014 compared with the last 102 years (because this season has been the coldest in the last 100 – but I digress.)
As they say in Arkansas, “Thank God for Mississippi.” (And 1912.)
The UK is famed for its VERY changeable weather. I lived there for many, many years and I can attest to this. As for climate back in the early 1980s the winters were bitter. Then they got warmer, then colder and now a recent warm winter. That’s climate change or weather if you like.
Is this a six month period from October to March as shown on the graph?
I’m with philjourdan. It has been a long and very cold winter here in Vermont, especially for those of us up by the border with Quebec. Lemme tell ya, the ice on my driveway I wouldn’t wish on your mother-in-law. Thank Bog the super nor’easter is staying to the south of me or I’d be seriously trapped 800′ from the paved road, with no recourse ‘ceptin dynamite.
BTW, -5 tonight. But they say it may hit the 30’s by the weekend…
Since we are on the USA here you go.
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past (in the UK). Maybe they are right, again.
Well, the warmistas say that warming causes more water vapor, hence big snowfalls. Pretty poor excuse–but that’s why they’re “the Church of Global Warming.” No falsifying them.
“Climate change” is another matter. Those freezing temps and California droughts, etc. are probably normal variation. But the world’s farmers have been messing up the soil, which interferes with hydrological (water) balances. Since water has the highest heat capacity, that means you could get both floods and droughts. This is not due to any kind of fuels, but to terrible irrigation practices, too much tillage, and artificial fertilizers killing soil organisms.
Yes, but it was a dry cold.
Having survived this winter in Wisconsin (barely), I say: “Global Warming? Yes please!”
I fear that in spite of settled scientific bullshit, my kids will know what numb, useless fingers are, sometimes as late in the year as 25 March in Manchester, Hew Hampshire.
Opposable thumbs, rendered useless by exposure, are just that – useless.
Well there’s always at least one, and I guess this time it’s me. This post is a frivolous waste of time. Not that I’m above such things. But I hold our side to a higher standard than the alarmists, rightly or not. Too many good arguments WRT to alleged CAGW to waste time on what is no more than short term weather in one relatively small part of the world.
And please lose this unnecessary 20 dollar word: “interequinoctial”
rogerknights says:
March 26, 2014 at 5:08 pm
> The United States has just gone through its coldest interequinoctial winter in a century.
> I’d insert “(Dec. 21 thru March 21)” (or whatever) before “winter.”
I haven’t checked the dictionaries, and I fully understand challenging the good Lord on interesting words, but I’d think interequinoctial would imply equinox to equinox. Last October wasn’t cold enough to call winter here in New Hampshire, but November was below average.
A five month winter? Yeah, usually it’s only four months long in New Hampshire, but it will be at least five months long this season! 🙂 I’m working on the second longest continuous period of snow cover over the last eleven years….
yes and co2 dogma predicted the opposite.
if you take co2 as the primary agent of change then to predict the weather you have measure the co2 then if co2 has increased you do your ‘change equation’ and out comes warmer and drier. So the co2 dogmatists have at least been consistent in their dogma and keep predicting warmer drier with rising sea levels yada yada. If co2 keeps rising they will have to keep predicting it regardless of what happens and will have to invent ‘black holes and epicycles’ for the heat to go to to explain the divergence between their predictions and the actual.
Quite sad really but that’s what happens if you do not design a fail point in an experiment-a point where the weight of evidence means you dump the theory. Currently there is no amount of evidence that will make them dump the co2 theory. So theory is now irrefutable dogma and any deviation must be explained away.
Oh – note that the graph says “October-March mean temperature.” It’s not clear exact which days are counted, but I’m confident that’s not “Dec. 21 thru March 21”. Definitely “whatever.”
The Navier Stokes equations describe fluid flow with changes in temperature and density. They are nonlinear, chaotic, and show sensitive dependence on initial conditions. No finite set of past states is sufficient to predict a distant future state. This has been known since 1963 and Edward Lorenz’s paper “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow”. Anyone who tries to use past temperatures to predict distant future temperatures is either incompetent or a fraud.
Excuse me, but I failed to detect any sort of trend in that chart. Shouldn’t there be one?
Not sure why anyone is getting worked up about this… The data hasn’t been “adjusted” yet, so of course it doesn’t show the correct temperature for this winter. Once adjusted, it will rank as the 3rd warmest winter on record in the last 3 years… Get with the program!
Excuse me, but the chart clearly says October – March. Not December – March. Can you not even read?
@ dwerth on March 26, 2014 at 5:17 pm
“No matter what vindication we feel with these numbers, we must remember what we have said: one winter in one are does not a trend make.”
Perhaps one winter does not, yet a few cold winters around 1980 certainly did create the “global warming” trend of the late 20th century. See e.g. Figure 3 and related material from my blog post on this very subject from January, 2010 (link below). I wrote then:
“A few colder winters in the decade from 1976 to 1985 caused an increasing temperature trend [in the final years of the 20th century]. Climate scientists seized on this, coupled it with an increase in fossil fuel consumption during the same period, and declared fossil fuel burning (man’s activities) to be the cause of global warming due to increased CO2.”
http://sowellslawblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/cold-winters-created-global-warming.html
Yup they’ll bump the numbers up so it’ll turn out to be the hottest winter EVER… just because…
@ Jimbo
Have you collated all the stuff you post? I mean, I have a lot of stuff (much from you), but it is very unorganized. Have you considered starting your own website as a repository for the information you’ve provided folks? I enjoy your posts.
Do you think that central heating using either gas, oil, or coke, has made some people somewhat hot house flowers. I remember when I was living in England, we rarely had white Christmas’ but Jan and Feb even around Easter snow was the norm. Jack Frost patterns on the inside of windows, and white and numb fingers walking to and from school. That’s when we had coal fires and no central heating at all. Only hot water bottles, no electric blankets, but we never used fans to keep us cool. Scotland was always snow bound. And rain, we had heaps. When sea gulls came inland you knew it was going to be cold.
Monckton, just admit you ran around and turned off all the heat islands around the thermometers this winter. Your the Grinch that stole the global warming.
When I look at the graph, I see maybe a slight warming from 1890 up to about 1938, then almost perfectly flat but possibly a very slight cooling from 1938 to present. Certainly do NOT see any warming trend going on in the US winter temperatures since 1938 for that data set. The warmista’s claim the world is coming to an end based on this kind of data?
Dave says:
March 26, 2014 at 5:11 pm
so….you are truly one of the stupidest people you know???
Wait until the “official” data and analysis comes out – the winter of 2013-14 will turn out to be the warmest winter in the last 30 years in the US of A….adjustments must be made you know.
As I sit under a CO2 spewing propane umbrella heater just South of Tampa Florida at the end of March, I have one thing to say. …………….
Brrrrrr, ,,,,,,,,,,,,, credit to Bob Tisdale for the weather observation term 😎
Bob Turner says:
“Interesting that an English (UKIP) politician equates ‘US’ with ‘global’ !”
Interesting that a particular Hockey Stick graph showing Mann made warming equates a single tree as global.
rogerknights says:
I’d insert “(Dec. 21 thru March 21)” (or whatever) before “winter.”
Problem is, the autumn equinox is around September 23 and the spring equinox around March 21, so your date range for “interequinoctial” is off by a matter of months.
Jantar I think you have read my comments on Mann’s tree ring prophesy. It’s absolute c@@p.
Bristlecone pines were used to analyse the amount of C.13 and c.14 hitting the earth. And it was found that there were periods when the earth received large amounts, that can affect c.14 dating methodology. But this does not equate well with climate change per say. It is true that higher temps generally produce more rain, and obviously a tree will show more growth rings closer together. Maybe if Mann had used a deciduous tree it would show a more accurate annual tree growth. Ask an archaeologist. Mann is a opportunist, and obviously his university will stick by him, as it reflects on them too.
I wish winter would end. I’m tired of it.
[The mods note that Bob is too tired of winter to even vibrate his “Brrrrr” Mod]
Where I live, last year was the latest spring on record.
When stations are recording the all-time lowest recorded temperature on Earth (ALL-TIME) …
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/living-and-working/stations/other-locations/dome-a/temperature_graph.png
and places are having the latest spring on record followed by the coldest winter in 100 years in the next year which is then followed by a weather forecast that is going to rival last year’s record for the latest spring on record …
… one has to call bull___ It is a more like a duty of every human being to do this when faced with such obvious bull___.
———————————
We should also be trying to verify the Dome A all-time lowest Earth temperature record. There was a study put out a few months ago about satellite-derived temperatures at -94C but the Dome A AWS is actually recording at the surface -92C on March 11th and then -91C on March 25th (breaking the previous all-time low record on Earth of -89.2C) and this is supposed to be fall-like conditions on Antarctica, not the middle of the winter season. Maybe there is a malfunction but this location has been speculated as having the potential to break the all-time lowest recorded temperature on Earth.
At Pearson International Airport (Toronto) the average daily temperatures for the period November 2013 to March 2014 inclusive (end of March forecasted) will be the coldest November to March period in the record presented by Environment Canada (uncorrected for the massive UHI effect and/or instrumentation changes). The record starts in 1938.
Ice core readings subterranean as well, can indicate there have been severe global climate changes dating back thousands of years. One has to remember the occupation of Greenland diminished and that those that remained reduced in stature and were nutritionally deficient.Mind you I wouldn’t like to live in the Arctic circle, with its reduced sunlight for part of the year. But I doubt very much that should we enter a new glacial period that there will be little we can do but adapt to it.
rogerknights says:
March 26, 2014 at 5:08 pm
The United States has just gone through its coldest interequinoctial winter in a century.
I’d insert “(Dec. 21 thru March 21)” (or whatever) before “winter.”
REPLY: I did that briefly, then realized your suggestion was dead wrong based on the definition of interequinoctial.
Do try to limit your suggestions to correct ones. Thanks, Anthony
=============================
Here goes,
If I wanted to get first time visitors of my site to “bounce”, I might use the term “interequinoctial”
in my second sentence.
I’ve been here for years, I like big words (even if they fly WAY over my head).
Think the newcomers do?
Are we fighting over words now ?, I’m pretty good at that.
Beating someone up over a word that may never be seen again……..
Bob Tisdale says:
March 26, 2014 at 7:18 pm
I wish winter would end. I’m tired of it.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Can’t your president just order it to stop? I mean, he made the oceans stop rising, how hard could it be to end winter?
Why isn’t it this one the coldest interequinoctial since 1900? On the graph the 1900 box is quite a bit lower than the 1911 box. Is it just that the 1900 box “is before records began”?
When I look at the graph, it appears, if you exclude the extremes, there is a 70 year cycle. It will be interesting to see if we have a cold summer. As Bill Illis says, we are seeing record cold in Antarctica. I expect next Winter to be cold, but it might not be as cold as this Winter.
Huffington Post don’t have this scoop yet !!!!!!!!
.
.
(BTW, I didn’t bother looking)
SC24 is now on track to be a lower cycle than SC5.
Layman’s Sunspot Count critic Leif Svalgaard continues to compare SC24 with SC14, but so far SC24 is not looking anything like SC14. The extreme peaks and troughs are NOT occurring as he prescribes which is especially clear when comparing SC24 with the counting methods of earlier periods…Svalgaard uses the unscientific method of smoothing to compare cycles which hides the important detail. The LSC removes the post 1945 22% Waldmeier factor that Svalgaard accepts and also adjusts for the increased speck ratio we experience during grand minimum type cycles. This increased speck ratio also gives us the flawed Livingston and Penn results as they measure every small spot.
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
Mr Monckton,
Could you please stop rubbing our noses in what an awful winter it has been?
I live in SE Wisconsin. So far during this the last week of March, I have been waking up to sub-freezing temperatures and the highs have been just barely above freezing. Last month, February, saw an average high 9 degrees F below normal and an average low, 11 degrees below normal.
Cordially,
Freezing My Ass Off.
philjourdan My Canadian neighbors have enjoyed this winder here is been above normal temperatures for most of the winter, and by the way we are in a drought(funny I though I now lived in a desert isn’t desert and drought synonymous.) Yet my Canadian neighbors soon will have to flee north, soon like all snow birds the migrate north starts late march and into April by May most are gone. There is some regulation about how long they Canadians can stay down here and as for the snow birds from the northern states for some strange reason most of them find temperatures in the high 30 and low 40 Celsius a bit warm for four months straight but since I fled the north and remember six months of winter three months of spring two weeks of summer if your lucky and then four months of fall. I will take the heat. Yea, I am a poor refugee from North Dakota now living in Arizona and loving ever minute of the heat. 110 beat -40 any day of the week.
@Mark Luhman – I think there is a limitation on how long they can stay – 6 months. This year is stretching that limit. And yes, 30 or 40 feels great when you have suffered in the single or minus digits. Yet they still visit you for those mild 70s and 80s! So would I (more often) if I did not have a job and lack of funds to expand my carbon foot print. 😉
pokerguy says:”Well there’s always at least one, and I guess this time it’s me. This post is a frivolous waste of time.”
With all due respect, I disagree, and I hope I can explain the reason to you. In terms of pure science, you’re probably correct, but you, and everyone involved in this fight, has to realize and accept that the scientific argument is really over, and in fact that was always the smallest, most inconsequential part of the war we’ve all found ourselves in.
What this is, is the political fight of our lives. It’s taking place in every country in the world today, and it’s goal is to take power over our lives. As far as those who follow the issues intently on either side, the positions are set in stone – there will be no conversions. So, this fight is now for the hearts and minds of the much-discussed “LIV”, the Low Information Voter. These are the people who the warmists have had a monopoly in terms of influence with for the last 30 years, and that is what has to change. The LIV’s won’t read position papers, they won’t listen to any argument that takes any explanation, they want a punchy soundbite that they don’t have to think about too much. “Coldest Winter in 100 Years!” is perfect for that! And it’s the perfect counter to the Warmist lines of argument. Sure, they’ll attack it, but to attack it, they have to start explaining, and as soon as explanations start, the LIV tunes out and goes to watch something more entertaining. It’s the first of many soundbites that we need if we’re ever going to win.
Is it cheap? Is it exploitational? Is it the only way we are ever going to win this war?
Yes, Yes, and Yes.
p.s. for any who think that this is NOT a war, let me assure you, to the other side, it most definitely is a war. And once someone declares war on you, as they have declared war on us, then your only choice is to fight or to surrender. I don’t like the sound of surrender, especially not to the likes of them.
Bruiser says:
March 26, 2014 at 5:17 pm
I was intrigued by the low temperatures on the Dome A graph and asked about this on the AAD web site. See their response below:
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/living-and-working/stations/other-locations/dome-a/temperature_graph.png
Tomorrow morning my wife and I leave lovely warm Sydney and fly to New York and then Washington for the International Congress of Actuaries. So please end winter right now! If you don’t it will cost me a lot of money as my wife will insist on buying heaps of warm clothes when she reaches Washington.
LadyLifeGrows says: Well, the warmistas say that warming causes more water vapor, hence big snowfalls. Pretty poor excuse–but that’s why they’re “the Church of Global Warming.” No falsifying them.
The theory is that more liquid water somewhere vaporizes because of a higher temperature, wanders about, then condenses when it hits cold air somewhere else. Okay, fine, heat of evaporation (600 cal/g) in here, out there. But to get it from the liquid state all the way down to snow requires removal of another 80 cal/g! When much of the NH is covered in ice and snow, the system is not in balance; there’s been a significant net loss of heat. “Heat causes cold” is just another Warmist lie.
Figures.
I looked at the numbers for Buffalo … nothing special in October … a nice spread between temps above normal highs as below normal lows, but then the snowball hits and the period November to March saw temps running on the cool side … so much so that about a third of the time the day’s high temp was so low that it didn’t even reach the average low temp for the date … and, as if to underscore this cold fact, today we tied the record low high temp for the date in Buffalo … and now it’s starting to look like we’re about to set some kind of record for the latest date in which we reach 60°F.
Desperate to find something positive in all this I notice that a high of 20°F in March is warmer than 20°F in January thanks to solar insolation … snow that would stay on the ground in January melts in March, even with air temps well below freezing. Now, all we need is for the sun to do something about the air temps.
Where’s Al Gore’s global warming when you need it?
Please … no record May snowfall.
Bob Turner says:
March 26, 2014 at 5:12 pm
“Interesting that an English (UKIP) politician equates ‘US’ with ‘global’ !”
It seems you are having trouble with the term “global.” Last I checked the US was still located on Earth and would be included in the global concept. If the warming is “global” then the US ought to – being within the definition – be warming.
I think it is just weather, including the snow in Cleveland and the little Nor’easter that just went by (nice photo here):
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/03/26/294923074/massive-noreaster-rakes-new-england
Bob Tisdale says:
March 26, 2014 at 7:18 pm
I wish winter would end. I’m tired of it.
—
Send winter a Dear John letter explaining that you wish to end the relationship so you can see other seasons.
Why not send a letter of complaint to Michael Mann, telling him you are being charged more for electricity than before. What’s he going to do to bring on the warming again. LOL
Dave … I think John was using a bit of sarcasm directed at the warmistas.
Winter….I want you gone….and I don’t care if you NEVER come back…
wws says:
March 26, 2014 at 8:17 pm
—————-
It is formally called “Agenda 21” per the published UN docuuents.
It is truly a war of the worlds.
The “thing” at stake is your freedom.
Think about it folks.
Read it! {°¿°}
http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/index.php?page=view&nr=23&type=400
My suggestion essentially was that you spell out the period in question rather than leaving it to the reader to guess. I recognized that my guess of “(Dec. 21 thru March 21)” was only a guess–that’s why I followed it with “(or whatever)”. I didn’t assert anything incorrect.
Revised version: I’d insert “(Sept. 21 thru March 21)” before “winter.”
If record cooling isn’t evidence of warming I don’t know what is.
Coldest March I can ever remember in my part of Michigan……coldest winter in fact.
WWs sez: “What this is, is the political fight of our lives. It’s taking place in every country in the world today, and it’s goal is to take power over our lives.”
–Think about it. What is the answer?
Roughly, a country’s wealth is dependent on its ability to consume energy. Computers, transportation, and infrastructure development are very sensitive to energy.
AGW remediation requires that some trans-global authority decide how much energy each country can expend each year. Ken Lay (of the U.S. Department of Energy/U.S.regulator of energy production, and of Enron, financial scam artists of the year) promoted cap-n-trade in Kyoto. Cap-n-Trade is an allowance: here is how much energy your country can burn up this year.
If wealth Is roughly equal to energy expenditure, then controlling energy expenditure is pretty much equal to controlling wealth.
If you control a country’s energy budget, you control the country.
That is fine for the continental US, what about Russia and Alaska?
dwerth says: March 26, 2014 at 5:17 pm
Perhaps not, but it makes one helluvan impression on U.S. public perception on the veracity of CAGW fear-mongering…where this political battle is now being fought.
When they’re freezing their asses off, their hearts and minds (most anyway) will follow.
Oh- the U.S. Department of Energy: proud sponsor of Michael Mann’s Hollaender Fellowship dissertation.
Not so bad here in WY but then most of the really cold stuff went east of us ‘where all the peoples is’. That’s where there are more folks who believe in global warming, or did. We had a couple of cold spells but nothing we have’nt seen before, actually have had worse about 15 years back.
Here is a definition of interequinoctial
1. Coming between the equinoxes.
“Summer and winter I have called interequinoctial intervals. — F. Balfour.”
It is quoted from the webster 1913 dictionary.
It seems to be general enough to cover the use here.
We have fortunately had a very very mild winter in Greece. Fortunately because of the fuel costs and the continuing economic crisis. Spring has already started almost a month earlier and the only real cold spell, i.e. days below 10C , we had in Athens was early in December.
Seems to me that all of Europe must have been unusually warm with all this flooding , the humidity from the Atlantic instead of falling a manageable snow that would slowly melt in spring and summer came down as rain and created floods from the UK to the north Balkans. We have not had a very wet winter, but not as dry as last year. The point of this paragraph is that the northern hemisphere might balance out, probably to last year’s average temperature.
Jim Bo says:
March 26, 2014 at 9:29 pm
===============
Yep, without the U.S. economy the world goes to shite.
Quicker than it is going now.
Bob Tisdale says:
March 26, 2014 at 7:18 pm
I wish winter would end. I’m tired of it.
—
Been pretty nice here in Southern Arizona (Tucson) for the last 3 months. Run or walked almost every day… in shorts. Ran 7.5 this evening in shorts, gorgeous sunset to finish. My pool is about to bust 70F any day now. I figure S. Arizona is a good place to be with the coming 20 years of global cooling.
P.S I moved here last year because I was sick of shoveling snow in eastern Massachusetts.
P.P.S. I’m betting on a weekly snowfall event on Boulder Colorado through mid-may, just to cheer up Trenberth, et al.
john on March 26, 2014 at 6:37 pm
Dave says:
March 26, 2014 at 5:11 pm
so….you are truly one of the stupidest people you know???
———————
Go easy on Dave, I think he just forgot the /sarc.
“99th warmest in 100 years” gives it away!
What’s annoying is nothing can falsify AGW. The next 10 winters could progressively get colder and colder and still Mann will call it a “faux pause” or the cold trend will be adjusted upward or it will be oddly proof of AGW.
AGW is a religion for some and a gravy train for others. Those die hard.
Oh…why not…
This year my calendar says the vernal equinox falls on March 20 @ 16:57 UTC
I liked seeing the term interequinoctial. Its derivation seems straight-forward. Will I ever use it at a bar? No. Still like it, though…
Blockade polar vortex has begun in October 2013, when solar activity was very low, how to the peak sun.
“The worst blizzard in recorded history of South Dakota just swept
through the state. Tens of thousands of cattle are predicted dead and
the much of the state is still without power.”
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/sbuv2to/archive/nh/2013/sbuv19_30_nh_131205.gif
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/Ap.gif
It is related to the geomagnetic field.
http://www.geomag.nrcan.gc.ca/images/field/fnor.gif
interequinoctial. Will I ever use it at a bar?
Only if you want the cute sheila you use it on at the bar to first slap you when you ask her about her opinion of “interequinoctial temperatures.” And then you guilt her into a profuse apology when you define it for her.
Such is the position of the polar vortex on 29 March.
http://oi61.tinypic.com/2yknk42.jpg
Only if you want the cute sheila …to slap youl
Yeah, you’re right. Even just uttering the word might be considered to be an interequinoctial emission. No telling how a lady might take that!
With a few mouse clicks, the graph drawer can GET RID OFF the BIG BLOBS…
and make the graph look PRESENTABLE..
Gees, I tell my year 8 high school students off for graphs that look like that !!!
Lots of comments along the lines of “I wish winter would end. I’m tired of it.”. Pray that the warming trend continues otherwise this last winter will seem balmy by comparison.
I have the items organized in a folder in laptop. When I get the time I might put them up.
I have seen lots of sceptical websites out there but what we need is a kind of resource centre with various headings such as ‘ocean acidity’, ‘sea level rise’ etc. I know co2science has this but they don’t link to the papers. I prefer more direct quotes, less of my own interpretation, bold the salient points etc.
Here is an example showing peer reviewed abstracts of the greening biosphere. (The last 2 abstracts are not linked for fear of going straight to spam).
By the way the http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com is a fine example of a mountain of contrarian peer reviewed abstracts / papers. BUT as you can see it does not appear to me to be organized under headings such as ‘ocean acidification’, ‘co2 fertilizations’, ‘sea level rise’ etc. If he could do this it would be great!
We’ve noticed. Absolutely brutal. Even here along the subtropical Gulf Coast…36 days below freezing. Including last night!
I can never remember the ponds frozen so solidly so late in the spring, in southern New Hampshire. Yesterday was a subfreezing day with gusts over forty mph, with the morning skies a battleship gray. Due to some recent thaws, the snow has a firm crust and is like walking on Styrofoam. My goats, who hate wading in deep snow (as they can’t see what their legs may hit,) discovered the snow’s crust was strong enough to support them yesterday, and when the sun began to shine through the milky overcast in the afternoon, as a brightening smear of light higher in the sky than we are used to, those goats went nuts. They started frisking about over the stiff crust, twirling and gamboling and prancing and kicking their heels. The children were acting the same. (I run a Childcare.) Though the wind was brutal and the wind-chill was vicious, I heard no whining and not a single complaint, (unless it was my own muttering to myself.) Instead I witnessed a huge after-school burst of energy, with the children laughing and shouting and daring the roaring wind to knock them over, and scooting down hills on their stomachs like otters.
The thermometer may not know it is spring, but the sunshine does.
A poor submission by Christopher Monckton :-
1. He conflates global and US temperatures – an elementary mistake given that weather is not climate.
2. He cherry picks a low temperature point on his own graph ignoring the adjacent ‘highest temperature point’ on the entire data set presented, in 2012 or thereabouts.
This is wonderful ammunition for the CAGW crowd.
Weak polar vortex will cause cold spring in Europe and frosts in April could threaten crops.
Worth seeing Jetstream forecast on March 29.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/29/0900Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=24.18,74.22,553
“alleagra says:
March 27, 2014 at 1:37 am
A poor submission by Christopher Monckton :-
1. He conflates global and US temperatures – an elementary mistake given that weather is not climate.
2. He cherry picks a low temperature point on his own graph ignoring the adjacent ‘highest temperature point’ on the entire data set presented, in 2012 or thereabouts.
This is wonderful ammunition for the CAGW crowd”
A poor submission by alleagra
The vitamin-deficient “Pellagra”, or some such epidemiological pseudonym (and if you don’t want me to make fun of your name, have the guts to use a real one), says I err by conflating global and US temperatures. I do no such thing., But if a substantial region of the globe is not warming, then the warming is not “global”, is it?
And, as I may have pointed out in one or two previous posts, even if one averages the temperature records worldwide there is no global warming either.
And I don’t “ignore” the highest temperature poiint on the graph. I display it. But it is not the most recent temperature point. The most recent temperature point is for the present winter, and that, like it or not, has been the coldest winter in a century, Get over it.
Recommendation: more vitamin B3.
Someone else complains that the chart is not drawn to his/her/its liking. By all means feel free to draw a prettier version: the United States, unlike Britain, is still a free country and no one will arrest you for it.
Come on, guys, stop whingeing. It’s been an uncommonly cold winter, and that – like it or not – is directly contrary to what the Forces of Darkness have been predicting. What it shows, yet again, is that Their models take insufficient account of the fascinating variability of the global climate. And that’s just one of the many things that have been shown to be wrong with the models – which is why the IPCC itself has substituted its “expert assessment” for their relentlessly exaggerated output.
I didn’t have time to read all the replies before heading off to work, but does it look to anyone else like that graph shows a downward trend in winter temps since 1940?
Cold has no significance for Warmistas, as they know that everytying is caused by CO2 and its inexorable warming process. The Warmistas continue to predict warming any minute now, despite static temperature records for 17 years. When the Hiatus is pointed out to them, their faith buoys them up and they invent new epicycles (as the Aristotelians did) to explain the event.and the divergence between their predictions and the actual climate.
The CO2 hypothesis is un-falsifiable and deliberately designed so,as that means you never have to dump it when the weight of evidence gets too big. No accumulation of evidence will make them dump the CO2 theory as it has become religious dogma.
You can see two centers of polar vortex at a height of 100 hPa (15 km). Where less ozone radiation is stronger.
http://oi58.tinypic.com/2n0rgk4.jpg
Bob Turner says:
March 26, 2014 at 5:12 pm
Interesting that an English (UKIP) politician equates ‘US’ with ‘global’ !
____________________
Two logical fallacies in one sentence. Good job.
rogerknights says:
March 26, 2014 at 9:15 pm
> Revised version: I’d insert “(Sept. 21 thru March 21)” before “winter.”
In case you haven’t read the rest of the comments yet:
1) Text on the graph says “October-March mean temperature”
2) Lord Monckton was playing with language. He does that. He was suggesting that parts of the US had a 6 month winter. (As I noted above, that’s stretching things a bit in New Hampshire, we’re going to end with something like a five month winter.)
3) What’s so difficult about decoding “interequinoctial” anyway. Just because it’s juxtaposed with “winter” says nothing about which definition of winter is being used. We have astronomical winter (as you inferred), we have meteorological winter (months DJF), and as other commenters have suggested, interequinoctial winter is closest to reality.
No snow melt yesterday, still holding at 14″ like I reported to CoCoRaHS on the 24th
If I have time I’ll post my summary of sub zero days this winter. It’ll take some pretty extreme weather for another one.
Again decline in solar activity.
Region 12010 [S13W51] decayed slowly producing a few lowl level C flares.
Region 12013 [N09W33] was quiet and stable.
Region 12014 [S12W20] decayed slowly barely retaining trailing polarity umbrae.
Region 12015 [S12W81] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12017 [N10E07] was quiet and stable.
Region 12018 [N03E11] developed slowly and quietly.
[i]rogerknights on March 26, 2014 at 5:08 pm
The United States has just gone through its coldest interequinoctial winter in a century.
I’d insert “(Dec. 21 thru March 21)” (or whatever) before “winter.”
REPLY: I did that briefly, then realized your suggestion was dead wrong based on the definition of interequinoctial.
Do try to limit your suggestions to correct ones. Thanks, Anthony[/i]
It seems interesting that this commenter would get skewered for suggesting this clarification and be told that his suggestion is dead wrong, when in fact the use of a much more common term has been used incorrectly: winter. Winter does not extend from equinox to equinox by any standard definition, astronomical, ecological or meteorological reckoning.
Yep – been a cold winter. Unusually so, but not abnormally so. We still have snow on the ground from the Dec 2 storms, which is unusual for Calgary. Usually during winter we get Chinooks that warm us far above freezing and often remove most snow and ice. Most years our wet spring snows in March and April fall on bare grass, not old ice.
Point is, the average temperature, whether globally or regionally or locally, really doesn’t mean very much for the same reason that sea ice year to year is meaningless. The planetary temperature control system works on longer time scales than year to year, or even decade to decade. Occasional peaks and dips don’t make a trend in either direction.
However, it is important to note that IF the CO2 situation was as important as alarmists want us to believe, it would NOT be possible for us to be matching lows from a century ago. Period.
Here’s the sub zero data from my home in New Hampshire. (Celcius users, this is about -18°C, not a very round number. -20°C is -4°F, I assume that means cold to some of you.)
The NWS forecast for tomorrow [I wrote this on March23] AM here is -1F. My guess is we’re not going to make it because they’re not forecasting calm winds. The latest in the season I’ve recorded a subzero temp was March 10 (2005), so it will be neat if we do go below zero.
Past seasons and number of subzero days:
03/04: 14 (11! in a frigid January, 3 in mid February.)
04/05: 12
05/06: 2
06/07: 8 (year 2006 had no subzero low, 2007 had 4 in March)
07/08: 3 (2 in January, 1 in February, normalcy!)
08/09: 9 (-17.5F on January 16th, brr.)
09/10: 1 (and that was -0.8F on January 30th)
10/11: 9
11/12: 3 (all in January)
12/13: 3 (all in January)
13/14: 15 (1 in December, 6 in January, 4 in February, 4 in March (so far!))
The high tomorrow should be about 24. Lows on either side of that should be around 5. I.e. colder than an average January day. Yeah, I think I’m ready for a little spring. Past March 24ths:
Tomorrow’s [March 24] high will be colder than most of those lows!
Phil predicted this. http://www.groundhog.org
Maybe he could help with the models.
See also:
2nd Coldest U.S. Winter in 35 Years by Roy Spencer, PhD, March 3rd, 2014
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/03/2nd-coldest-u-s-winter-in-35-years/
If things continue over the next several Winters as they were this past Winter (not altogether “past” yet in the upper Midwest), Anthony may have to add an addendum to the Global Sea Ice Page called the “Great Lakes Ice Page”. It is nearly April and the Great Lakes still have something on the order of 75% Ice Cover, with Lake Superior still close to 100%!
I thought Lake Superior was supposed to be the one that warmed the fastest due to Global Warming…. guess that was an incorrect prediction by the Warmunists…
Monckton didn’t mention this
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/a-cold-u.s.-winter-for-sure-but-8th-warmest-globally-17196
Retired Engineer John,
If next winter is not as bad, it will be the result of Climate Change.
Just a graph, no source of any meaning given of course (CFACT is the hidden Exxon lobby in…. Europe!), about a whopping 2% of earth’s surface. That wouldn’t be too global, would it now.
Equinox to equinox globally was, of course, ‘hot’.
Well, yes, Chuck, at 8:29, as discussed recently here on this blog, all those UHI induced night-time readings are driving up average temperatures, aren’t they?
Kampen says:
“Just a graph…”
And what have you got? You’ve got nothing.
chuck says:
Monckton didn’t mention this
Thanx for the ClimateCentral nonsense, chuck. But it is both false and meaningless, since temps in the 1930’s were warmer than now.
Here’s a current hockey stick chart that may interest you.
It may be just weather, but when I see a chart like that I note the full effect of the swing from elevated the prior year to the extent of the fall in the latest year. There are very few if any swings like that on the chart. It reminds me of the degree of swing in the WUWT reference page chart for the recent plunge in the AMO. Also, we’ll see how Europe fares in that 60 year AMO cycle change along with the regional effects of the solar cycle demise on jet stream pattern and strength.
Bob Turner says:
March 26, 2014 at 5:12 pm
Interesting that an English (UKIP) politician equates ‘US’ with ‘global’ !
Let’s face it, it was your Wisconsinan ice sheet that caused all the trouble during the last glaciation.
Holy cow, can you imagine how much colder then the record from a century ago it would be right now without the very clear and 97% undeniable co2 fingerprint in the data?? We would have beaten the record by what? .5-1 degree or so??
Maybe the world is still in the mini iceage, we just dont realize it because of all the global warming. which would explain the “faux pause”. The earths temp is actually trending down into the depths of an iceage, but the clear power of co2 has over ridden it. This winter probably tells us we need to REALLY ramp up co2 production to continue to try to outpace the looming iceage.
I think this proves we are saving the planet from the big freeze. I should probably get a research grant for this.
(this was of course my weak attempt at humor, LOL)
@ dbstealey says: March 27, 2014 at 9:01 am
If history repeats itself we may get lucky and get warm again for a short period if time like in the 1950’s before we sink back to 1970’s cold or worse.
Best Regards
period of time like
Severe WX Awareness Week in Iowa coming to an end:
http://www.decorahnewspapers.com/Content/News/Local-News/Article/March-24-28-Severe-Weather-Awareness-week/2/10/33784
“Could it be that the models have a problem?”
Anything’s possible, Jimbo, but I suspect it’s more likely that they’re lying through their teeth.
We just had dinner with my father-in-law over the weekend, and he said pretty much the same thing, that this was the worst winter he could remember in his 93 year lifetime; and his memories include a particularly nasty winter that he spent outside with the rest of his 2nd Infantry Division, frequently without the benefit of a tent or even a blanket during all of that “unpleasantness” in the forests of Ardennes and Hurtgen during the winter of 1944/45.
For those of you in the US, your area’s NWS site may have something like this.
It doesn’t directly support or refute what Monckton has said since it is not the entire US and the time frames are different. It is also not a reference to a season’s “coldness” but it is interesting.
Days below zero °F
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/climo/below0.php
Snow
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/climo/snowrankings.php
Kampen, I think the folks at CFACT would take serious issue with you regarding any such relationship of CFACT with ExxonMobil, whom CFACT has identified as one of the Big Oil companies actively supporting alarmists (along with Shell and BP).
What wws says: about the LIV’s (low information voters) is so dead on. I think you should write an article about it. It is so hard for me to hear my lovely sister say, “Those tea partiers shut down the government and hurt all those people who needed help.” It springs from such a place of goodness in her yet is so very wrong on so many levels….she is the same way on climate. You can’t reach them with facts they honestly do not want to be bothered, but they want to be “good.” So people like me are left speechless and for the most part helpless. We are losing to the LIVs and need more solutions which is what wws proposes. Thank you.
ww is correct, and there needs to be an effort made to counteract the propaganda from the warmists…but it is hugely distasteful. My personal motivation is seeking the truth. From my perspective in Alaska, I can see that our normal cold has been displaced to the Lower 48. The time period is too short and the information too regional to be discussing climate change…yet those with an agenda that allows them to lie and mislead regarding CO2 will not hesitate to spin every bit of unusual seasonal warmth into their false narrative regarding CAGW. This is a tough position for an idealist to be in.
All I know is that it was flippin’ cold here in southern Michigan this winter. In fact, it’s still flippin’ cold! 4 degrees F yesterday AM when I set off for work in the AM, on March 26th!
Jason Joice MD says:
March 27, 2014 at 5:10 am
“It seems interesting that this commenter would get skewered for suggesting this clarification and be told that his suggestion is dead wrong, when in fact the use of a much more common term has been used incorrectly: winter. Winter does not extend from equinox to equinox by any standard definition, astronomical, ecological or meteorological reckoning.”
= = = = = = = = = = = =
Technical there is no such thing as “a year without a summer,” so you might want to ride your high-horse over to wikipedia to have this page nominated for deletion:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
Or you could just read Rick Werme’s comment at 5:04am, specifically that part about the year with 6 months of winter.
Khwarizmi, possibly by interpretation a year without a summer means to me, the warmer temperatures and rainfall didn’t rise as would be expected as normal for the summer months. The warmest period in the climate year. Although in UK, an Indian summer means a warmer than normal Autumn.
I see no credit was given to Steve Goddard for this. It is his analysis you are quoting (that CFACT also used). I urge Mr Monckton to go to http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com for lots of other interesting work. And at @SteveSGoddard
[i]Kwharizmi: Technical there is no such thing as “a year without a summer,” so you might want to ride your high-horse over to wikipedia to have this page nominated for deletion:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
Or you could just read Rick Werme’s comment at 5:04am, specifically that part about the year with 6 months of winter.[/i]
Easy on the personal attacks bud. Never was on a high horse. I was pointing out an inconsistency. And who said anything about any Wikipedia article? But since you brought it up, like you say, technically there’s no such thing as a year without a summer. So you’re agreeing with me. This use of the word winter was incorrect and therefore you agree that its inconsistent to lambaste someone for incorrectly using a term while using the very next term in that same sentence incorrectly.
Jason Joice MD says:
March 27, 2014 at 10:07 pm
You could also read my web page on about the Year without a Summer at http://wermenh.com/1816.html and my Guide to WUWT includes instructions on formatting comments here, see the link in the nav bar of head directly to http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/index.html
(Basically you need to enclose html in <> angle brackets instead of [] square brackets.)
No horses necessary. 🙂
Michael Smith rightly takes me to task for not having given Steven Goddard credit for the graph in the head posting. However, in an earlier posting I had paid tribute to the wonderful work he has done in exposing the many tamperings with past temperature data by the Archdruids of Thermageddon.
We still have 6-8 inches of snowice on the ground in most places, and the frost still goes down 6 feet. Normally, spring planting would start in a week or two. People are talking June. Think about that. Yup global warmin’ must be.
Of course it’s not called Global Warming anymore, that didn’t work out so well. Climate Change, you can’t go wrong with that one.
It is snowing right now (3/29) here in central Ohio.
I want Global Warming, and I want it NOW!