Image Credit: NOAA Great Lakes Surface Environment Analysis (GLSEA)
Great Lakes Ice Cover reached 91.8% yesterday, after Wednesday’s coverage of 91% made 2014 the second highest maximum on record. Great Lakes Ice Cover is well within striking distance of the highest maximum on record of 94.7% set in 1979. Coming on the heels of last week’s second highest Southern Sea Ice Area minimum on record, and The Pause in Earth’s temperature reaching 17 years last year, the signs of Earth’s “Rapidly Accelerating” Global Warming abound…
For those of you who like to watch Global Warming not happening, in real time, we are pleased to introduce WUWT’s newest addition, the WUWT Great Lakes Ice Reference Page. The Great Lakes Ice Page offers real-time graphs and graphics on Great Lakes Ice Cover, Air Temperature, Sea Temperature, Cloud Cover, Wind and Waves, as well as a section of more focused graphs and graphics for each of the individual Great Lakes.
In addition to the WUWT Great Lakes Ice Reference Page. if you have not had the opportunity to review some our other WUWT Reference Pages, they are highly recommended:
- Atmosphere Page
- Atmospheric Oscillation Page
- ENSO (El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation) Page
- “Extreme Weather” Page
- Geomagnetism Page
- Global Climate Page
- Global Temperature Page
- Great Lakes Ice Page
- Northern Polar Vortex Page
- Northern Regional Sea Ice Page
- Ocean Page
- Oceanic Oscillation Page
- Polar Vortex Page
- Paleoclimate Page
- Potential Climatic Variables Page
- Sea Ice Page
- Solar Page
- Spencer and Braswell Papers
- Tornado Page
- Tropical Cyclone Page
- US Climate Page
- US Weather Page
Please note that WUWT cannot vouch for the accuracy of the data within the Reference Pages, as WUWT is simply an aggregator. All of the data is linked from third party sources. If you have doubts about the accuracy of any of the graphs on the WUWT Reference Pages, or have any suggested additions or improvements to any of the pages, please let us know in comments below.
Very smart. I was using the few links provided prior this reference page to fiddle with the Great Lakes Ice Products…. Now shazzam… all here!.
Very clever of you and timely. Now I know what you’ve been up to.
One thing. An ice cover total calculator is absent and each of the lake’s discrete plots don’t report an hourly value so I can’t do the sums myself… hourly. Sounds like job for Willis. ie image processing, pixel counting. Don’t get me wrong. Great page. More of a complaint about the source data.
A second additional thought is this would be a good place for media to get a good summary all in one place.
Thank you, so much, Just the Facts, for your mighty efforts to get the truth out there! You are a one-man or one-woman climate truth army. YOU ROCK!
Gratefully,
Janice
Thank, Just the Facts,
You satisfied the curiosity bone. {:>)
Thanks for the page – it’s nice to scroll down vs clicking on multiple pages to get the info.
Paul – in looking at the source data, it seems that the lake pages are updated at 0, 6, 12, 18 hours (GMT). The gray-scale summary page seems to be produced once a day. For example, the 3/5 summary showing all of the lakes is noted as being as of 3/5 at 18:00 GMT. But, the fine print states that it was updated on 3/6 at 00:33:17GMT.
I haven’t been able to find anything that we can use to estimate the interim numbers. But, the new number for ice coverage should be larger, since the Ontario coverage has increased from 39.5% on 3/5 18:00GMT to 49.9% coverage as of 3/6 18:00 GMT. All of the other lakes had minor increases of .1 – .7%.
I’m a Michigander by birth but living in the warmer south. Just have to worry about twisters and earthquakes!
Why is the water temperature 28 degrees Celsius in the open areas?
As a matter of interest, does anyone know why Lake Ontario isn’t iced over like the other Great Lakes?
Thanks,
Pete
Paul Westhaver says:
March 6, 2014 at 12:12 pm
A second additional thought is this would be a good place for media to get a good summary all in one place.
_____________________
Have you noticed any indication that “the media” would be the least bit interested?
Liz says:
March 6, 2014 at 12:47 pm
I’m a Michigander by birth but living in the warmer south. Just have to worry about twisters and earthquakes!
______________________
Sounds like you might be a resident of the great state of Oklahoma.
The Canadians have a great data set also in Environmental Canada even tracks ice thickness
You can always rely upon AP to make a warm silk purse from a frigid sow’s ear. If the subject of possible record ice cover is (cough) “inconvenient”, change it to a discussion of “water levels”…
Thanks, Anthony! As a resident of the Chicago area (and avid ice-fisherman), I’ve long held an interest in how our lakes behave. This winter has been a doozy….Coast Guard ice-breakers have been extremely busy, breaking ice for commercial shipping vessels.
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/watch-coast-guard-ice-breakers-work-to-keep-great-lakes-shipping-channels-open/
The ice cover is good news for these aquatic systems, as it is preventing evaporation and allowing the lakes to build up some liquid capacity. The heavy snow cover we share in this area will be a blessing to regional farmers, who have dealt with a rather crushing drought for a season or so.
There is a fun website that I’ve been following for years, here:
http://duluthshippingnews.com/
They are very proud of their port (as they should be).
I check it every day.
It’s at the west end of Lake Superior.
Awesome!
@Pete.
The reasons why Lake Ontario doesn’t freeze over are varied and speculative.
1. It is the last Great Lake in the chain;
2. It has a lower elevation compared to the other lakes;
3. Niagara Falls empties into it (the largest volume falls in the world);
4. Lots of cities on the lake (Hamilton, Toronto, Buffalo) so perhaps some human footprint;
5. It’s a deep lake with a low surface area to volume ratio – so harder to cool / warm.
spdrdr says:
March 6, 2014 at 12:51 pm
Why is the water temperature 28 degrees Celsius in the open areas?
Well, since we know it’s not, it must be +1-2C
Thank you, JTF, for “yet another” piece of good work, and to Our Host for providing the page to put it on. This site is probably the best aggregator of hard climate info there is as a result, and very much appreciated. Kudos to you both.
I’ve followed lysimeter/pan evaporator issues for some time. It is conventional wisdom that ~30% of loss from Lake Michigan is due to evaporation. I find that number amazing.
Here are the web cams nearest my home –
http://www.wisferry.com/web-cam/#camera1
http://www.wisferry.com/web-cam/#camera2
http://www.wisferry.com/web-cam/#camera3
I am sure this is all of great interest to North American readers, but be wary of accusations of cherry-picking which events you cover. What would you write if SkS started regular updates on a particular heatwave somewhere in the world?
Please don’t tell the Pollies.
http://polarbearscience.com/2014/03/04/of-labrador-polar-bears-and-sea-ice-way-above-normal-off-newfoundland/
A good article in the Detroit News http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140305/METRO06/303050105/0/METRO06/Lake-Superior-within-reach-historic-average-water-levels-Corps-projects
on how Lake Superior is within reach of its historical water levels, but no mention of the fact that alarmists had been prophesying the death of the Great Lakes because of global warming.
Thanks for this great addition to WUWT’s handy reference pages.
Other data shows Lake Michigan surface water temperatures ~32°F Image date 2/22/2014
http://www.coastwatch.msu.edu/michigan/m1.html
Jonathan Abbott says:
March 6, 2014 at 2:06 pm
I am sure this is all of great interest to North American readers, but be wary of accusations of cherry-picking which events you cover….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Don’t worry, the
Propaganda outletsNews media and others cover all the hyperventilating over any warm event or any drought or flooding or storminess that can possibly be connected to GoreBull Warming. Therefore it is not necessary for A.W. to cover those events although he often does.What A.W. is doing is covering the stuff that is NOT readily available.
Good!
If you do follow those pans, what is your best estimate of the “h” factor for the heat flow equivalent resistance from a surface (both water and ice!) at a near-zero temperature surface to a arctic-like air mass flowing over that surface?
I have pressure, air temperature, and air dew temperature (wet bulb) data available, but would prefer you verify the (often-conflicting) equations I find in the literature.
Nobody seemed to care about the Great Lakes last Summer after levels recovered from record lows.
It’s not only the Great Lakes getting near-record winter conditions. While all the headlines in the UK have been about the floods in the south of England, Scotland’s mountains have had record snowfall, with snow depths at Cairngorm reaching 9 metres. The ski centres are having a bumper year, or they would have if there wasn’t so much snow the ski-tows have to be dug out every day. Check the last picture on the BBC Scotland website
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-26287347
Sorry Practicing ;-}) Engineer, my formal training is in (nuclear power) Critical Feat Flux and boiling water physics and I retired in 1995. But cite a correlation and I’d be interested to look at it.
Hey, I can see Romm’s head exploding from here!
Wow – the winds out of the east moved the ice over the entire lake to the west (notice the gap along the shoreline on the east side of the lake! Notice the other lakes have this same ‘feature’ due to the unusual winds from the east) … conditions were clear over Michigan today, too … about a 7 hour visible image loop below:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=DTW&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20140306&endTime=-1&duration=7
Surface winds from east as shown depicted on the (approx) 6 hr loop below:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=dtw&endDate=20140306&endTime=-1&duration=6
.
Steve from Rockwood says at March 6, 2014 at 1:35 pm
Worth repeating as these answers are spot on right except…
They are in the perfect, wrong (reverse) order.
When the ice and the snow melt…
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/now/wlevels/dbd/
Pete says:
March 6, 2014 at 1:00 pm
This from FAQ page here:
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Why does Lake Ontario generally have the least ice cover of all the Great Lakes?
“Lake Ontario’s extreme depth (86 m average; 244 m maximum) translates to tremendous heat storage capacity. It also has a smaller surface area for heat loss. In addition, cold air outbreaks from the northwest and west are moderated by the waters of Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron. These factors combine to keep ice cover on Lake Ontario at a relatively low level most years.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
You can view the Lake’s geomorphology here:
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/greatlakes/lakeontario_cdrom/html/gmorph.htm#a
Area 7 in the eastern part is the deepest. It is called the Rochester Basin.
There is a large color chart with notes for many parts in a pdf here:
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/image/images/ontario_72.pdf
I think it is interesting that this part freezes over while the western and shallower end does not.
M Courtney says: March 6, 2014 at 3:04 pm “Worth repeating as these answers are spot on right except…They are in the perfect, wrong (reverse) order.”
What, please, establishes the correct order?
Jonathan Abbott says:
March 6, 2014 at 2:06 pm
I am sure this is all of great interest to North American readers, but be wary of accusations of cherry-picking which events you cover. What would you write if SkS started regular updates on a particular heatwave somewhere in the world?
—————————————————————————————
How is detailing a real time ongoing natural event a cherry pick? The lakes, due to their size, have effects that will be more than just regional. Just like the Arctic does, or any other area that has a significant affect on a region.
Anyway, who gives a rats foot what sks does. It only took about 4 or 5 times of perusing sks to realize that there was nothing there that would properly educate me. That was back in 2008, when I was just beginning to read about climate change.
DonnieMac says:
March 6, 2014 at 2:38 pm
————————————–
That was a nice photo essay of the Scottish landscape.
Brrrrr. As Bob Tisdale might say.
Thus to kill an enemy? Or to float above it all, forevermore? Few have free will. Fewer still are Gods.
spdrdr says:
March 6, 2014 at 12:51 pm
Why is the water temperature 28 degrees Celsius in the open areas?
I too am a bit confused with the legend. It could be 28degC – or it could be 1degC since BOTH have a similar blue on the “Water Temperature” scale chart.
I’m also confused what’s been plotted – I’m asumming its mainly ice and the residual is water temperature.
Good chart otherwise tho
Is Lake Ontario on the wrong side of the Niagara Peninsula?
http://www.academia.edu/5345274/Lake_Breezes_in_Southern_Ontario_and_Their_Relation_to_Tornado_Climatology
clipe says:
March 6, 2014 at 4:07 pm
Is Lake Ontario on the wrong side of the Niagara Peninsula?
Escarpment not Peninsula
clipe says:
March 6, 2014 at 4:12 pm
clipe says:
March 6, 2014 at 4:07 pm
Is Lake Ontario on the wrong side of the Niagara Peninsula?
Escarpment not Peninsula
==========
Nice catch.
Many thanks to … M Courtney, Steve from Rockwood, and John Hultquist … for the guidance re Lake Ontario’s preference not to freeze.
Learn something new every day here at WUWT.
Pete
M Courtney says:
March 6, 2014 at 3:04 pm
——————————————-
My apologies to Buffalonians. I moved the city from the eastern edge of Lake Erie to the southern shore of Lake Ontario. Not to worry. I put the whole city back.
It makes sense that the ratio of surface area to volume has an important influence on ice coverage but Lake Superior has the same ratio so air temperature and wind must also play a major role.
Lake Ontario receives a lot of that southern (warm) air moving northeast from the mid-west US.
Well, we were going to go to Chicago for the rest of this month. Then you had to post this! Plus she noticed this morning that the Chicago high would be 19. So now we are going to her North Georgia mountain cabin, where it will snow this weekend and the temps will only be in the mild 30s. (if Accuweather is right, whichnis never is…) Welcome to the eventual spring, whenever it finally comes.
Alan R @ 1:06pm – yes, former Michigander and now an Oklahoman. Used to the tornado warnings, not quite used to the rumblings and shakings. I check the OK Mesonet and OK Geological Services quite often and make sure the insurance is all paid up!
I noticed that the GL ice highs were in 1979, 1994, 2003 and this year. We’ve heard a lot about the polar vortex this year and how it is blasting the US. Has anyone seen any links to past very strong artic winds and high ice cover on the Great Lakes? I’ll start looking for the info, but if someone has it, please share!
That is not ice, that is only foam from the tops of waves caused by the horror high winds from Climate Change caused by CO2 caused by Americans greedy and driving their cars to work every day.
Walk or else.
I made a small fortune shoveling snow when I was 16, during the global cooling scare of the late 70’s.
Then things sort of calmed down.
Now I’m 51, and the snows of my youth are falling again.
I haven’t done the math, but I think I’ve shoveled 10,000 pounds of snow off my driveway so far this winter.
She is gonna have to work harder to kill me.
Which should in no way, be, deemed an insult.
So far the kinda only thing I have not found is the Saharan air layer analysis in the tropical weather section.
That would be unless I missed it :-]
Here’s one of many you can use.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?prod=splitEW
u.k.(us) says:
March 6, 2014 at 5:43 pm
“. . . I think I’ve shoveled 10,000 pounds of snow off my driveway . . .”
When global warming gets about belt high on my house roof I think about shoveling it off – especially if the weather people think it will rain. The driveway shows no distress, however. I’m an optimist and can wait for spring – or my neighbor with a great big tractor.
Jim, thanks for explaining the water on the east edge of Lake Michigan–I see it every morning and wondered why there is a couple hundred yards of open water at the edge of the lake, then solid ice away from shore. The prevailing winds may explain it, but I think it may also have to do with wave action at the edge of the lake breaking up the ice. Like the Arctic winds breaking up the ice there, the waves are more turbulent at the shore due to the wind and the tides. There are also rivers, creeks and storm sewers dumping water in and water treatment and power plants creating flows into and out of the lake near the shoreline. More moving water at the shore.
re: Cold in Wisconsin says March 6, 2014 at 6:30 pm
Cold, I spent the winter of 78-79 on the MI side down by the water -er- ice! Got to witness all that ice as it built up (and the snow that fell) and packed it up near shore as the wind blew that winter!
It was dangerous to climb on that ‘pack ice’ … and not easy either … like climbing a small mountain ridge, with perils in the valleys … I much prefer it in Tejas these day.
Update: Today (Mar. 6) Total Ice Area = 92.2%
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=l&ext=ice&type=N&hr=00
Any suggestions from how the Big Freeze might effect the Neana Ice Classic?
Jonathan Abbott says: March 6, 2014 at 2:06 pm
I am sure this is all of great interest to North American readers, but be wary of accusations of cherry-picking which events you cover.
Here is the WUWT article on the 2012 record low in Arctic Sea Ice:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/19/sea-ice-news-volume-3-number-13-2012-arctc-sea-ice-minimum-reached-its-all-gain-from-here/
I know of no significant climatological or weather event or trend that WUWT has not covered. Are you aware of any?
What would you write if SkS started regular updates on a particular heatwave somewhere in the world?
I would probably not notice (SkS doesn’t matter, before today I had not looked at it in months) and put together another new reference page, e.g. here is WUWT’s new ENSO Forecast Page:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/enso/enso-forecast-page/
Has anyone noticed that the freezing of the Great Lakes does not fit the mantra of a rapidly warming arctic as claimed by AGW? Once the sun sets in the arctic, the sea ice rapidly reforms and the radiational cooling of the surface is every bit as effective as it was in any prior years including the winter of 1978-79, regardless of a higher atmospheric CO2 concentration. That is why the bitter cold can penetrate southerly latitudes this year like it has done and shatter temperature records nearly a century old.
This ought to be a lesson to any with common sense that all of the recent claims made about “arctic amplification” and its implication to anthropogenic global warming are sheer nonsense, just like the claims made recently from two professors that “arctic amplification” was undoing the polar vortex, causing looping jet streams because of claimed weakening westerlies and causing bitter cold to affect mid latitudes which they claim normally doesn’t happen. They tried to bridge that gap by the improper use of Rossby wave theory from which I wrote an article to refute here:
http://blog.heartland.org/2014/02/about-that-persistent-polar-vortex/
“Arctic amplification” is a summer time phenomena that is caused by oceanic and wind currents that transport warmer air and water into this region and cause greater or lesser summer melt depending on the frequency. During the last phase of the PDO which was warm, a greater incidence of the ENSO signal was responsible for a greater northward transport of those Kelvin waves into the arctic sea than during the prior 30 years before 1977 and is no doubt a reason for the increased summer melt off. Now that the cold phase of the PDO is back with a changed solar magnetic I am betting the summer melting amount in the arctic will reverse. It has nothing to do with atmospheric CO2 as claimed by warmers.
Chuck Wiese
Meteorologist
RealOldOne2 says: March 6, 2014 at 7:09 pm
NOAA Great Lakes Surface Environment Analysis (GLSEA) – Click the pic to view full size image[/caption]
Update: Today (Mar. 6) Total Ice Area = 92.2%
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=l&ext=ice&type=N&hr=00
Yep, creeping up:
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="550"]
Chuck Wiese says: March 6, 2014 at 7:54 pm
This ought to be a lesson to any with common sense that all of the recent claims made about “arctic amplification” and its implication to anthropogenic global warming are sheer nonsense, just like the claims made recently from two professors that “arctic amplification” was undoing the polar vortex, causing looping jet streams because of claimed weakening westerlies and causing bitter cold to affect mid latitudes which they claim normally doesn’t happen.
Yes, they’ve essentially surrendered that point:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/21/finally-a-real-scientific-consensus-everyone-agrees-that-the-recent-displaced-polar-vortex-wasnt-caused-by-global-warming/
This recent Washington Post article “Confronting the exploitation of extreme weather events in global warming reporting”;
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/28/confronting-the-exploitation-of-extreme-weather-events-in-global-warming-reporting/
seems like it is a plea to the Warmist faithful to stop scoring own goals…
Lake Ontario has been freezing over quite rapidly;
NOAA Great Lakes Surface Environment Analysis (GLSEA) – Click the pic to view full size image[/caption]
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="550"]
here is the Lake Ontario forecast page:
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs-ice.php?lake=o&type=F&hr=01
justthefactswuwt says:
March 6, 2014 at 7:53 pm
Jonathan Abbott says: March 6, 2014 at 2:06 pm
I think I am noticing a trend, not about ice, but about commenters such as Jonathan. Sometimes I get a comment in late so this may just be a timing thing in my case, but, after the initial comment such as Jonathan’s, when given a polite response (or 2 or 3) or asked a very reasonable question there is no response. Nothing. Zip. Nada. Zilch.
Is Jonathan (and others like this) a real person with an intellect or a troll, paid on not, or an AI software package honing its skills?
There are other over used (like “cherry-picking”) phrases, for example, “ships passing in the night” and “So long, its been good to know you.”
Anyway, having been born and raised just south of Lake Erie and having relatives and friends now living near all the lakes – This reference page is a great asset – Thanks.
Ice “Boats” RULE.
Ice is an insulator. Ice reduces energy loss to space when it is dark. Of course, if the sun is up, ice then reflects more energy than it absorbs. Ice alone does not tell us everything about global climate.
Forecast wind direction.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/08/0600Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-106.51,45.86,1106
Richard111 says:
Ice is an insulator. Ice reduces energy loss to space when it is dark. Of course, if the sun is up, ice then reflects more energy than it absorbs. Ice alone does not tell us everything about global climate.
Yes, but whether it means the local cooling of?
In reply to justthefactswuwt, I understand that you want WUWT to cover as much climatic data as possible. The point I was making is that as a regular visitor I don’t remember any previous coverage of Great Lakes ice coverage (it’s not a topic that particularly interests me, so shoot me if I’m wrong). Then you have an article about record highs, followed swiftly by adding the data to the Reference pages. If the ice coverage was solidly average, would you have bothered? My comment was just intended as a friendly word to the wise, nothing more.
John F. Hultquist says:
March 6, 2014 at 9:39 pm
“Is Jonathan (and others like this) a real person with an intellect or a troll, paid on not, or an AI software package honing its skills?”
I post up one very mildly critical comment and your conspiracy alarm starts ringing? Seriously? Did you know that where a commenter’s name is underlined you can click on it and it will take you through to their web site, in my case my blog? Why don’t you try that, and then come back and tell me if I’m real or not.
(By the way, I’m in the UK, so my ‘silence’ was due to me being asleep.)
This recent Washington Post article “Confronting the exploitation of extreme weather events in global warming reporting”;
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/28/confronting-the-exploitation-of-extreme-weather-events-in-global-warming-reporting/
Justthefactswuwt if you can explain to me why no mention in this article (comments) that the jet stream is the result of the state of the polar vortex, which accelerates in winter in the STRATOSPHERE. Do people not know about this?
Jonathan Abbott says:
March 7, 2014 at 12:43 am
——————————————-
Jonathan, if you follow global warming at all you are familiar with the tendency of the alarmist side to attribute anything “hot” to global warming and either ignore anything “cold” or (worse) to also attribute extreme cold events to global warming.
Your point on not relying on one year’s extreme ice-over of the Great Lakes as a refutation of global warming is taken. But please also understand that the “wise” know that a business as usual climate is REAL evidence that catastrophic global warming is a FRAUD. Also, let us skeptics have some fun. Doesn’t it bring a smile to your face that while the alarmists beg for a carbon tax in the facing of a ever melting world we are faced with the coldest winter in over 40 years?
Jonathan Abbott says:
March 7, 2014 at 12:43 am
——————————————
There is significance with this level of change in the Great Lakes region. I have been watching sst anomalies for over a year now and saving the daily picture. I now have a record of the last 16 months for sst anomalies, so I can compare year to year changes at a glance. Last year at this time the lake waters were either average or showing a warm anomaly. Most of last year all of the lakes, except Superior at times, were showing warm anomalies of +1 to +2 above normal. Now they are all close to -2 on the sst anomaly. That is a dramatic shift.
Also dramatic is the sst change in the northern oceans from last year. The ‘hot’ anomalies are now subdued warm spots with strong cooling advancing in large regions of the oceans. The North Atlantic in particular now has a strong patch of cold surface water that stretches from Nova Scotia all the way to Europe In a wide swath. I can’t help but think that the polar vortex cold sweeping eastward has initiated this shift. This is also where the Great Lakes influence should have a continued cooler effect that will drift eastward for many months to come.
[SNIP waayyy waaayy off topic -mod]
Here in New Hampshire, we have a “Great Lake” of our own, Lake Winnipesaukee, and while extent of ice cover to my knowledge has never been tracked, for 126 years (since 1887) the “ice-out” date has been tracked. Ice-out is declared when the M/S Mount Washington would be able to reach all 5 of its ports of call. The latest date recorded, in 1888 was May 12, and the earliest, in 2012 was March 23. Year-to-year fluctuations are typically 2-3 weeks, and sometime 4 weeks. Last year was solidly in the middle, at April 17. This year, due to the extreme cold extending well into this month, I’m guessing ice-out could be around May 1. The last May ice-out was in 2001, May 2, and the time before that was in 1972, also on May 2 (it was on May 6 the previous year).
They are forecasting winds over lake Ontario for the next few days .
http://weather.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=11&siteID=08207
I would like to know what is meant by “ice concentration.” Thanks in advance.
Jonathan Abbott says:
March 6, 2014 at 2:06 pm
I’m sure everyone would be devastated if a site like SkepticalScience, or timecube.com, or Garfield.com started talking about a heatwave somewhere. I mean, cartoons and crude, autofellative nazi pictures are pretty important.
Canadian Ice Service has today’s (Mar. 7) ice cover images out, showing more ice than yesterday. Lake Michigan went solid. The only Lake with open water is Ontario.
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/NAIS25WC/20140307180000_NAIS25WC_0007553056.pdf
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/NAIS25EC/20140307180000_NAIS25EC_0007553047.pdf
Jonathan Abbott says: March 7, 2014 at 12:43 am
I understand that you want WUWT to cover as much climatic data as possible. The point I was making is that as a regular visitor I don’t remember any previous coverage of Great Lakes ice coverage (it’s not a topic that particularly interests me, so shoot me if I’m wrong). Then you have an article about record highs, followed swiftly by adding the data to the Reference pages. If the ice coverage was solidly average, would you have bothered?
No, but if ice coverage was second lowest and pushing a record low, then yes, I probably would have put this reference page to help me and others understand why.
My comment was just intended as a friendly word to the wise, nothing more.
I appreciate your advice, but this isn’t exactly my proverbial first rodeo.
Lake E H M O S Total sqm
Area sqm 9,910 23,000 22,300 7,340 31,700 94,250
% Ice Cover 18:00 GMT
5-Mar 95.5, 95.5, 91.7, 39.8, 94.7,
6-Mar 95.8, 95.8, 92.4, 49.9, 95.0,
7-Mar 95.9, 95.9, 91.4, 58.4, 93.7,
Ice area sqm 9464.05, 21965, 20449.1, 2921.32, 30019.9, 84819.37 90.0
Ice area sqm 9493.78, 22034, 20605.2, 3662.66, 30115, 85910.64 91.2
Ice area sqm 9503.69, 22057, 20382.2, 4286.56, 29702.9, 85932.35 91.2
My Calcs Mar 5 90.0 (91.7 GLCFS)
Mar 6 91.2 (92.2 GLCFS)
Mar 7 91.2 ??? need to wait 2 hrs
So my areas for the lakes are not correct I’m sure but, due to Superiors size,
the fact that Ontario is 58.4% frozen is mitigated by superior’s loss of ICE.
Not sure if the tabulation will hold together…Sorry Mods.
Nope… lost the tables… Oh well.
Is it me or is the left had temp scale (coloured one) upside down?
Paul Westhaver says: March 7, 2014 at 3:31 pm
NOAA Great Lakes Surface Environment Analysis (GLSEA) – Click the pic to view full size image[/caption]
My Calcs Mar 5 90.0 (91.7 GLCFS)
Mar 6 91.2 (92.2 GLCFS)
Mar 7 91.2 ??? need to wait 2 hrs
So my areas for the lakes are not correct I’m sure but, due to Superiors size,
the fact that Ontario is 58.4% frozen is mitigated by superior’s loss of ICE.
Greal Lake Ice Cover down to 90.3%:
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="550"]
ren says: March 7, 2014 at 4:10 am
This recent Washington Post article “Confronting the exploitation of extreme weather events in global warming reporting”;
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/28/confronting-the-exploitation-of-extreme-weather-events-in-global-warming-reporting/
Justthefactswuwt if you can explain to me why no mention in this article (comments) that the jet stream is the result of the state of the polar vortex, which accelerates in winter in the STRATOSPHERE. Do people not know about this?
He knows about it, but his goal is not to communicate facts, but rather to put a fork in the claims that Global Warrming caused a cold winter for much of North America. As he says:
“But in the meantime, I disagree with those who argue that we need to capitalize on recent extreme weather events to raise public awareness of human-induced global warming. Many of the reporters who write stories about our research don’t recognize the distinction between the broad scientific consensus on climate change and the various unsubstantiated hypotheses relating to extreme weather events. When the public becomes confused, the carefully considered scientific consensus becomes vulnerable to attack by the apologists for economic growth at all costs. It didn’t take them long to learn that poking fun at the notion that global warming could lead to extreme cold is an effective tactic.”
They realize that no one buys Warm makes Cold meme;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/21/finally-a-real-scientific-consensus-everyone-agrees-that-the-recent-displaced-polar-vortex-wasnt-caused-by-global-warming/
and are trying to kill it before it gets too ridiculous for even the Warmist faithful to stomach.
“Is Lake Ontario on the wrong side of the Niagara Peninsula?” Huh? The Niagara Escarpment wraps around the western end of Lake Ontario, and runs along the Niagara Peninsula to the Niagara River. Lake Ontario is north of the Niagara Peninsula… ???
Some Great Lakes trivia: The boys who brought the Matthew, the replica of John Cabot’s ship down the Great Lakes a bunch of years ago, said the trip down Lake Ontario was the roughest of the entire crossing, including riding out a transatlantic storm in the north Atlantic. Ontario is known for its short steep wave trains that pile up on a steady easterly (or westerly). A 3 metre sea on Ontario is extremely uncomfortable in a small yacht and a b*tch to come about in.
The elevations matter: Lower elevation means a (slightly) warmer general temperatures year-round.
Lake Ontario has the lowest mean surface elevation of the lakes at 243 feet (74 m) above sea level is the second deepest but is closest to the (somewhat modifying Atlantic Ocean; Lake Superior is the highest in elevation, deepest, most northern average area and is furthest from other moderating influences. Lake Eire is closest to Ontario, but is the shallowest (easiest to freeze up water mass) but is higher up: Lake Erie has a mean elevation of 571 feet (174 m) above sea … The elevation difference is the rapids in the Niagara River above the falls, the falls themselves, and the rapids and river downriver of the falls before the canyon opens out into Lake Ontario.
But, it is what it is. Live with it.
Justthefactswuwt
Yes ozone in the stratosphere directing traffic.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t50_nh_f00.gif
The height of about 20 km.
[snip -off topic- mod]
Nice to have this reference, but it needs to be added to the Reference Pages drop-down menu.
Paul R. Johnson says: March 8, 2014 at 5:31 am
Nice to have this reference, but it needs to be added to the Reference Pages drop-down menu.
It’s there, it is nested under the Sea Ice Page, along with the Northern Regional Sea Ice Page. The reference page list was getting too long, so I’ve started nesting new pages under a parent when possible. If you hover over the Sea Ice Page in the drop down, you should see it.
Mar 7th ice coverage is greater than Mar 6th, but percent ice coverage went down from 92% to 90%. Wattsupwiththat?
Paul Coppin says:
March 7, 2014 at 6:27 pm
“Is Lake Ontario on the wrong side of the Niagara Peninsula?” Huh? The Niagara Escarpment wraps around the western end of Lake Ontario, and runs along the Niagara Peninsula to the Niagara River. Lake Ontario is north of the Niagara Peninsula… ???
I guess you missed the correction.
If you want to photograph funnel clouds in the summertime Toronto, then you need to head WNW to higher ground, before the storm cells “fall of the cliff”.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/great-lakes-water-temperatures-at-record-levels
Anthony, I don’t see all of your reference pages listed in the header “Reference Pages” where I would expect to find them. Not a huge problem – I understand that it’s difficult to maintain a website in addition to writing most of its content. Just thought I would let you know.