UPDATE: 3/5/14 Chipotle spokesman walks back the claim, see below.
Chipotle warns global warming may force it to stop serving guacamole.
Yes, that’s an actual headline. Too bad they didn’t do a little research first.
This story is from the excitable kids at Climate Progress, who are paid to make you worry about these things:
The guacamole operation at Chipotle is massive. The company uses, on average, 97,000 pounds of avocado every day to make its guac — which adds up to 35.4 million pounds of avocados every year. And while the avocado industry is fine at the moment, scientists are anticipating drier conditions due to climate change, which may have negative effects on California’s crop. Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, for example, predict hotter temps will cause a 40 percent drop in California’s avocado production over the next 32 years. [Climate Progress]
No comment so far from Taco Bell, Chevy’s Fresh Mex, Del Taco, El Toro and many other Mexican food restaurant chains in the USA. (Added: for our overseas readers, this is Chipotle, apparently the news about the Guacamole crisis wasn’t important enough for their press feed)
But if the crisis worsens, expect Guacamole smugglers to fill in the vacuum.
Oh, wait, most avocados don’t come from California:
![avocado1[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/avocado11.gif?resize=460%2C271)
Mexico accounts for half of world trade
Nearly half of all internationally traded avocados are from Mexico (table 2). It came to nearly 500,000 tonnes valued at 0.9 billion dollars in 2012. Export increases every year, but the increase from 2010 to 2011 was very substantial. Three quarters of Mexican export is directed at their northern neighbour, the USA. Last year, 370,000 tonnes of Mexican produce went across their northern border. Japan bought a lot more Mexican avocados last year than previously: 50,000 tonnes. Canada is their third largest customer. Mexico exports about 30% of its production (table 3).
Number two producer Chile brings 30% of its production to the international trade, with the USA as their most important customer as well, and the Netherlands as number two on that list (table 4). Peru exports 40% of its production, most of it to Europe, with the Netherlands as their most important customer, followed by Spain. 2012 showed growth again, after export remained stable in the years leading up (table 5). Israel is a relatively small producer, but almost the entire harvest (90%) is sold abroad. After a big drop in export in 2011, 2012 saw an increase in export, namely 60,000 tonnes. France, the Netherlands and Russia are important customers (table 8). The Dutch (re)export is mainly aimed at Germany, but Sweden also buys a lot. France, Denmark and Norway are also important customers for the Dutch trade (table 6a).
USA biggest importer, Netherlands second
The United States are by far the biggest avocado importers. The 500,000 tonnes mark was passed in 2012. The majority comes from neighbouring Mexico (table 14). The Netherlands are the world’s second largest import market. Import statistics show that it came to 96,000 tonnes valued at 190 million dollars in 2012. South Africa, Chile and Peru each supplied just under 20,000 tonnes last year. The South African import shows quite a few fluctuations from year to year. Chile and Peru provide more each year (table 15a). According to South African and Peruvian export statistics more is shipped to the Netherlands than (Dutch) import statistics show. This is partially explained by trade going to the Netherlands through other countries, such as France, Spain and Germany. As an importer, France is almost as important as the Netherlands. This country imported 95,000 tonnes in 2012. Spain is their most important supplier, followed by Peru and Israel (table 15b).
Source: http://www.freshplaza.com/article/110214/Avocado-market-still-growing,-Holland-plays-big-role-in-it
h/t to Tom Nelson for the CP link and Steve Milloy for the fun title.
============================================================
BOTTOM LINE:
1. This is mostly a marketing ploy by Chipotle i.e. “come get now what you may not be able to get later”.
2. If it ever comes to pass that Chipotle can’t get “locally sourced produce” (I wonder how they get Avocados at the Chipotle in Portland, Maine?) they’ll opt to have them imported in order to keep customers coming in. Profit rules those decisions.
3. added 3/5/14 Told ya so:
Chipotle stirred up the media and guacamole lovers with news that it could “suspend” guacamole from its menu due to global warming.
But a restaurant spokesman tells the Los Angeles Times: “This is way overblown.”
Glowbull Warming idiocy not withstanding, good. Get rid of the foul slop.
Mr Lion,
From your comment I would say you’ve never had good Guac.
My 3 homeschooled kids all said, “What???” in unison. My oldest said, “That’s absurd!” Thank goodness I can teach them logical thinking and truth.
Avocados stand for anything. In a warmer world, there will be no corn, no wheat, no apples, and most important – no alcohol. And that will lead to a catastrophic decline in the number of apocalyptic articles.
dccowboy,
I gave it an honest chance across three countries and six states. It’s not for me. Besides, it sucks up perfectly good salsa and beef space.
Hmmm, I smell mixing avocats into the sauce.
================
Are they adding a surcharge for Obamacare too? (Like some restaurants are now …)
Guac’s one thing, but pales in importance to tequila, which was an apparent influence on this report.
How long before: 5% of the world’s population consumes 47% of the guacamole? We must attain guacamole independence.
It seems if corporate entities want to make these claims, we should treat them accordingly. Much like Apple, if they don’t want the business of those that doubt the science, then so be it. We can go to Qdoba or a host of competitors. Let the marketplace decide who has the best climate policy.
Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, for example, predict hotter temps will cause a 40 percent drop in California’s avocado production over the next 32 years.
Wow, that’s mild compared to what they predicted 32+ years would be happening NOW… that isn’t happening now. And you can bet your bottom dollar that the avocado crop is gunna be just fine come 2046. Steven Goddard did a piece about a new prediction that a flood of new climate refugees would be driven north by heat waves, my comment:
Don’t you get a Déjà Vu feeling on this?
Kind of like that broken record feeling we get almost every week when the shameless fear mongers regurgitate another of the same old patently bullsh!t predictions of doom. We are doomed… unless we do what they say, which involves a radical reworking of society.. into the leftist mold envisioned decades ago by the eco-utopians.
“If you listen to the hysterics, you would think.. that the Statue of Liberty will shortly be under water.” -Rand Paul
“Entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of eco-refugees, threatening political chaos.” -Noel Brown, ex UNEP Director, 1989
Let’s see: no refugees, sea level is just the same, in 2014!
“[in twenty years (2008)] the West Side Highway [and thus much of Manhattan] will be under water.” -James Hansen, 1988, NASA
Um, the sea is just the same! In 2014!
“In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.” -Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day 1970
The fish were fine. No stench. 44 years later. What an absurd prediction, like the rest of their predictions now.
“[Inaction will cause]… by the turn of the century [2000], an ecological catastrophe which will witness devastation as complete, as irreversible as any nuclear holocaust.” -Mustafa Tolba, 1982, former Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Program
Let’s see. It’s 2014!!! No holocaust. Walk outside, and everything is just fine, just like it used to be. Except maybe colder…
“If Canada proceeds [with its oil development]… Sea levels would rise and destroy coastal cities. Global temperatures would become intolerable. Twenty to 50 percent of the planet’s species would be driven to extinction.” -Jams Hansen, 2012
Um, not going to happen!
Hmm. Ate at Chipotles in your town a few months ago. Good lunch! Was that you at the table with the 3-4 girls our age?
REPLY: No, I don’t go to Chipotle. The food is always lukewarm and the sheetmetal and glass decor drives my hearing aids nuts with echoes. IMHO the place has all the ambiance of a prison cafeteria – Anthony
Anthony,
You serve/have economic niche that appears to remain viable for the foreseeable future. The left wing greens keep giving you fodder to report and you are doing a good job with it. LOL
Global warming, he dead. The horror! The horror!
a lack of critical thinking capability
Ok, to avoid this scary future crisis, everyone needs to start their avocado pits growing in water, now, so that they’ll be ready to plant when all of the global warming finally shows up. Stave off the future shortages- be prepared- bust the avcocado cartels!
Workersguac lovers of the world unite!As a Brit, I have two questions:
1) Who / what on earth is / are Chipotle?
2) How can the loss of guacamole be described as anything but a benefit to mankind?
“… scientists are anticipating drier conditions due to
climate changeEnvirostalinist, anti-science, policies, which may have negative effects on California’s crop.”*Source: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/28/pineapple-express-pattern-for-drought-stricken-california-is-shaping-up-how-long-will-it-last/#comment-1580007
(great comment by Dave Burton on the recent “Pineapple Express” thread at 2:39pm on March 1st)
********************************************************
Eric Simpson! — thanks for sharing all that GREAT RESEARCH.
***************************************************************************
@ Alan Robertson — Hi. #(:))
Janice Moore says:
March 4, 2014 at 3:13 pm
@ Alan Robertson — Hi. #(:))
________
Hey yourself, young’n. Can you believe that guy Joe, the Brit? Doesn’t like guac?
What a haggis.
Oh wow! Chevy’s! I haven’t been there since about ’89, in Walnut Creek, when I learned of and to love their scorched tomato salsa!
Alligator Pears (as the slang term) are nice,
And suffice.
John
So 34.5 million pounds per annum equates to around 16 million Kilos, or 16,000 Tonnes. Hardly significant given the world output! Not that I even eat the stuff, and it virtually grows wild here in New Zealand.
For all you doubters, man-made apocalypse is real…and it’s great: http://www.endofbadbeer.com !
As for California rainfall, I’m confused. I thought that warmer temps produced more precipitation, and colder ones less. Did I miss something here, or am I confusing issues?
Finally, all I can say is that upon reading this, my first thought was, “The avocado may grow in the south with the rain, or the coconut or the pineapple may grow in warmer climes in winter, yet these are not strangers to our land.”
rip
Here ya go, Joe!
Chipotles are little Mexican peppers:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chipotle
How to Make Guacamole (Chipotle brand)
And it would be a MAJOR TRAGEDY to not have tons of guacamole to scoop up with chips and stuff. btw: for all the British people, “taco” is a Latin based word which rhymes with “rock oh” (not “wacko,” lol). But, then, in England “valet” rhymes with “mallet,” so, whatever… WHO CARES. Just eat LOTS of guacamole (with chipotle peppers in it) and have a tall, frosty, salt-dipped-rimmed, glass of Rose’s Lime Juice in soda (no alcohol needed to get Margarita flavor).
Your American Friend,
Janice
Joe says: March 4, 2014 at 3:13 pm “As a Brit, I have two questions: 1) Who / what on earth is / are Chipotle?” Chipotle are chilli peppers. Californians will use any word to mean anything in the name of marketeering.
“2) How can the loss of guacamole be described as anything but a benefit to mankind?” Mole (sauce, from Aztec Nahuatl Mexican mōlli) is what one makes of it. Chocolate, chili, or avocado, it is all good.
… and here I thought it was just cheap TV preachers who spouted this crazy stuff.
Hi, Alan! Hurrah, we ARE on speaking terms. (whew)
Well, perhaps Joe just never had really good guacamole. We have lots of great Mexican restaurants around here (and lots of great Mexican-Americans, too!), so we get the best.
HAGGIS?!!! I KNEW a Rrrrrobertson must be Scottish. And I was right, hm? Now THAT is a dish that should be stopped at the border — of southern Scotland!
Next, it will be Boston Cream Pie, German Chocolate Bars and Cheese Cake. Where will this madness end? What we need is a good five cent Cigar.
Ah, the good old days when the common man just needed a Man who wore the Star, the Big White Texaco Star and people flying out of the sky and landing in a Hertz Rent-A-Car.
Gone crazy is what has happen.
Paul
Never mind the fact that they’re getting excited about a study from 7 YEARS AGO, based on climate models that were worse at predicting future temperatures than more recent ones.
Does that 40% decline in California avocados come from a predicted 4 C temperature increase? (Rather than 2C?) I’ll bet it does. It’s much more likely there will be about a 1 to 1.5 C increase, if that.
I’m confused, aren’t avacado’s a tropical plant that thrive in warm temperatures? And wouldn’t increasing temperatures actually increase the available real estate for growing avacado’s?
I know it’s junk food, but I prefer Chili’s anyway. With (cold) records from the 1800s being broken, I’m hoping for a flood of Northeasterners to my Florida properties.
I wouldn’t care, guacamole is vile and disgusting withslimy texture and awful flavor.
Avocado trees move uphill?
Avocado trees move north?
My avocados are in a warmer clime than the ones in California and they are MASSIVE, so there. Heh heh.We had 3 trees but 1 had to be chopped down after 30 years due to poor crop ’caused’ by global warming. I put another seedling in its place and it appears to my lying eyes to be thriving! We must act now!
Mr. Lamont T. — AHEM! You, (like most people, lol), did not read my comment at 3:13, did you? (smile) — it’s a matter of irrigation, not air temperature, I believe. The Envirostalinists l1e and say that it is heat that is causing CA farmers to not have enough water when it is actually the Envirostalinist policies which cause that lack.
Chipotle is just trying to generate news/hype/PR by jumping on the green bandwagon.
Being that avocado’s are tropical fruits and the tropics have not experienced “climate change” what are the some of the more likely causes of avocado shortages?
Hint I’m in the business.
1/ More people than ever are consuming avocados, guacamole and avocado oil.
2/ A few years ago my company lost over a million dollars (in estimated profit) because some avocado’s were contaminated (salmonella). We are slowly building our avocado business back no thanks to over the top media coverage and public perception.
3/ Strained US Mexico relations have produced produce shortages. In December (2013) the US stopped importing from some Mexican States over security concerns. This year Mexico’s leadership tightened up on avocado shipments.
4/ With new trucking restrictions on driver’s hours, as well as, fuel costs everything we eat is more expensive. Wait until cafe standards hit the trucking industry.
Other than that the avocado business is booming!
After the Dems finish shutting down the central valley to save a sardine that no one eats, I suppose it IS possible CA will have no avocados. They’ll just hafta buy from Mexico like everyone else.
Avocados are a weed tree in Hawaii.
A sardine that on one eats? Barbara Streisand and *I* will eat them, have eaten them, dried on the beach. In HS they were worth a bag of potato chips in trade, a single beach dried sardine.
Lawrence Livermore lab predicts a dip in dips? wow. I give these folks a self-pity/navel-gazing rating of 8
SHHHHH!!! Everybody just be quiet. Maybe Chipotle will just close in anticipation of this Avocado Extinction and save us from having to hear there Climate Change Induced histrionics anymore.
Guacamole is smashed avocado. It’s ok. Folks like it. But a slice of avocado, salted, on a sour dough slice? Heaven. Even better with an heirloom tomato…
Rising seas? Meh. Hotter temps? Meh. More extreme weather? Meh. Troubles in the avocado industry? I demand immediate action! 😉 And a half-teaspoon of olive oil per avocado will make the taste and texture of guacamole mas fina!
The folk-named ‘Alligator Pear’ goes well with any of the fermented & distilled agave products (even the one’s with worms at the bottom of the bottle) : )
John
@ Fabi — Italians know what really matters in life!
Indeed, Janice!
– – – – – – – –
cartoonasaur,
There is a style of guacamole that has mostly chunked avocado instead of smashed, I prefer the chunked style.
Good stuff.
Avocado slices do well in sushi too . . . .
John
“IMHO the place has all the ambiance of a prison cafeteria – Anthony”
Well, since you have a handle on prison cafeteria, maybe some added info? There might be some mannly mann who will soon enjoy such ambiance…imagine that.
As for the article, pray for climate change of the drier sort in that warmer means the tropics move both north and south. Something the warmistas are not willfully considering.
I am looking forward to growing my own avocados — out doors. It may be that I am wearing some avocados I ate at Kihei Beach, Maui and now have a lasting lust for such. http://kiheibeachresorts.com. The size of watermelons I might add. The chocolate ice cream was good too. It comes in half gallons…. 🙂 ….
Think I just saw some photos of Niagara frozen good. How pretty.
Thanks janice and Doug. I was aware of the chipotle pepper but couldn’t quite see how they’d be making press releases (although anything’s possible in a warmoist World) 😀
As for guacamole, I’m sorry but that’s a waste of good avocados and good tacos. Save the avocados for salad (prawn, chicken and salmon are all good), and add a side order of tacos with chilli cheese dip. No taste-free slime involved 😉
south park chipotleaway worked huh?
And since the study was from December 2006, there should be plenty of avocado crop data by now to verify if the prediction is accurate.
Year Acres Tons per Acre
2002‐03 59,500 2.82
2003‐04 60,500 3.57
2004‐05 62,000 2.44
2005‐06 62,100 4.83
2006‐07 65,000 2.03
2007‐08 66,000 2.5
2008‐09 65,000 1.35
2009‐10 58,500 4.7
2010‐11 52,200 2.9
2011‐12 52,200 4.43
Source: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/California_Ag_Statistics/2012cas-frt.pdf
It just so happens that 2005-2006, just before the study was published, was an unusually good year for avocados; not many problems with pests and hard freezes. I don’t see a pattern here that validates LLNL’s 2006 prediction. Does anyone else?
Press Release
Update:
Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory have new data and now predict hotter temps will cause a 40 percent drop in global avocado production over the next 32 years.
You can’t plant an avocado tree from a pit. You have to graft on a fruiting tree branch to your sapling to get a producing tree.
correction: you can’t plant a fruiting avocado tree from a pit. You can plant the germinated pit and get an avocado tree. But chances are it will never fruit.
Typical warmist fraud. They say “Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, for example, predict hotter temps will cause…” but LL says no such thing. They say that ASSUMING higher temps, guacamole yields will fall. They build their edifice on a weak foundation, but paint it in bright colors.
Steve Oregon says:
March 4, 2014 at 4:11 pm
Press Release
Update:
Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory have new data and now predict hotter temps will cause a 40 percent drop in global avocado production over the next 32 years.
Do they ever consider putting their money on the table in Vegas? After all, the certainty of it should fair projoctioneers well. 🙂
Did you miss this part of the article? If not, why wasn’t it quoted?
My Dad used to make guacamole all the time. I can’t stand the stuff, personally. But, looking at the charts above, I would hazard a guess that the avocado crops are in no real danger whether or not we get warmer. Actually, since avocado is a tropic/semi-tropic fruit I would imagine that a little bit of warming might produce bumper crops.
-“Using more than 20 CLIMATE MODELS, the authors assessed the response of these crops to projected changes in temperature (an increase of 2 degrees to 4 degrees Celsius) and precipitation.”
-“The research was funded in part by the Department of Energy’s Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program.”
*More voodoo climate model predictions.
*More taxpayer money flushed down the toilet
Holy Guacamole!
===================================================================
1) “Chipotle” is a fast-food restaurant chain, quality-wise a step or two above Taco Bell. (Though as Anthony implied, you’d enjoy the food better if you get it to go.)
2) Since I always tell them at any Mexican restaurant to hold the guacamole, I can’t answer that.
Dear Joe,
You are welcome. I do wonder, though, being from Great Britain, and all… . Have you ever had really good, authentic, Mexican guacamole like we find in non-chain Mexican restaurants around here? If you are ever heading this way, let me know. I’ll take you to where you can try some great guacamole.
(I’d send you some in the mail, but, freshness is key, here)
GUACAMOLE SIEMPRE!!
Janice (smiling)
*********************************
@ Fabi — just to be perfectly clear, I was NOT being sarcastic (and I KNOW you weren’t, heh).
“Chipotle warns global warming may force it to stop serving guacamole.”
Glad to hear that Chipotle will cease serving guacamole. Their stuff is putrid. pg
iI>Joe says:
March 4, 2014 at 4:19 pm
Did you miss this part of the article? If not, why wasn’t it quoted?
Chipotle has a commitment to using local produce grown on farms within 350 miles of the restaurants where it will be served, so its California locations are likely the ones at highest risk from experiencing the drought effects of climate change.
So, where do they get the avocados when their restaurant location is more than 350 miles from California?
I doubt if every location is within 350 miles of every ingredient they use.
Good policy though. Helps explain why their food seems so fresh.
Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, for example, predict hotter temps will cause a 40 percent drop in California’s avocado production over the next 32 years.
The chart above indicates that the US produces five percent of the world avocado harvest so if the prediction comes true, the 40 percent drop in California’s avocado production would be less than two percent of world’s total. The assumption is that nothing else changes — which is always wrong.
And the folks at Climate Progress left this part out …
The research did not include the effects of an increase in CO2 in the atmosphere or farming modifications due to increasing temperatures and less rainfall.
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-12/dlnl-ric120406.php
Jeez. That study is almost eight years old. California avocado production is quite variable …
Volume in short tons
2006/7: 132,000
2007/8: 165,000
2008/9: 88,000
2009/10: 274,800
2010/11: 151,500
2011/12: 195,000
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewStaticPage.do?url=http://usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/ers/./89022/2012/index.html
I don’t see any falloff in production since the study was released in 2006. Perhaps it’s because global warming stopped.
So, the airplanes that carry Chilean avocadoes to the USA are powered by fairy dust and unicorn poop? That’s why they don’t contribute to CO2 in the stratosphere, right?
FYI: Chipotle is the McDonalds division that makes Mexican fast food.
p.g.sharrow says:
March 4, 2014 at 4:27 pm
“Chipotle warns global warming may force it to stop serving guacamole.”
Glad to hear that Chipotle will cease serving guacamole. Their stuff is putrid. pg
Could be they needed an excuse to strike the putrid concoction from sending folks to the wayside.
They’ll say anything to try to get people to care about climate change.
FYI: Chipotle is the McDonalds division that makes Mexican fast food.
Actually have never heard of “chipoltle” as a dining establishment. Typically, the small family owned establishments are best in all cultures of dining. Never had a bad Guacamole.
LamontT says:
March 4, 2014 at 3:34 pm
I’m confused, aren’t avacado’s a tropical plant that thrive in warm temperatures? And wouldn’t increasing temperatures actually increase the available real estate for growing avacado’s?
+++++++++++++++++
listening to: Talking Heads– “Stop Making Sense”
re: mjmsprt40 says March 4, 2014 at 4:19 pm
My Dad used to make guacamole all the time. I can’t stand the stuff, personally. …
No doubt an acquired taste; like the taste for Lone Star beer, Country Music, cowboy boots and the likes of the Texas Tea House (C and W bar long ago used to be off Lemon Avenue in Dallas) …
Wait, it’s hotter in Mexico than in California. When California gets hotter, it will be like Mexico. Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory should get a huge grant to see if you can grow avocado’s in Mexico. Problem solved!
Guacamole is a tool of the Devil.
Whackamole.
Meanwhile, in the real world, surface temps in the San Joaquin valley are tracking the PDO and on the way down.
See a sample station from San Joaquin here:
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/cgi-bin/broker?id=043747&_PROGRAM=prog.gplot_meanclim_mon_yr2012.sas&_SERVICE=default¶m=TMEANRAW&minyear=1880&maxyear=2014
Lawrence Livermore Laboratories. Ha Ha
see: http://pgtruspace.wordpress.com/2014/02/23/an-engineers-tale/
about the quality of Lawrence Livermore Laboratories work.
I make my own guacamole-always better than the processed rubbish.On a bagel with cream cheese, smoked salmon and dill-yum. In days of old when the climate was warmer, it was also wetter. The water evaporated off the oceans is going to drop, unless you believe the “sky is falling” scenario that the water vapour will dissociate in to hydrogen and oxygen with the hydrogen floating off in to outer space. A bit of warming will be great for avocados. Perhaps we should just eat all those chicken-littles with the abundant avocado.
Richard Howes says:
March 4, 2014 at 4:39 pm
Wait, it’s hotter in Mexico than in California. When California gets hotter, it will be like Mexico. Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory should get a huge grant to see if you can grow avocado’s in Mexico. Problem solved!
Amen!
…then pack up and head for the Perini Ranch …enjoy the steaks while you can. A new climate change study on eating steak claims that….
http://store.periniranch.com/steakhouse/
Well it is an old study, it was published in 2006. Since then the temperature has changed by….rounding off to nearest 1/10 of a degree…. nothing.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:2006
We should doa weekly update for a different fruit or vegetable each week to show the actual crop yields – virtually every single crop world wide is increasing due to advanced farming and increased carbon dioxide.
I am sorry, but if the only “Mexican” you have had is Chipotle, you are deprived. They are barely better than Taco Bell. In other words, if they go belly up, the world of Mexican food will be the better.
Given their lack of intelligence and propensity to hysteria, perhaps it is for the better.
highflight56433 says: March 4, 2014 at 4:04 pm [ … ] “It may be that I am wearing some avocados I ate at Kihei Beach, Maui and now have a lasting lust for such. ”
I cannot too highly recommend Sushi Koiso in Kihei, but I do not recall avocado in any of his sushi negri. When I was there a year ago itamae was full of the recent visit by the Japanese Foreign Minister to his sixteen seat store front. You must visit.
Another addition to the list of 1001 disasters threatened by AGW.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is a hot stock–it has doubled in the past 15 months and hit a new high today. Maybe, since it has “jumped the shark,” now would be a time to short it (?).
What? Global warming ate my guac?
Sorry Janice M. I posted my comment before reading everyone else comments. It was such an obvious one. I will note that California grows a more cold tolerant avocado than Mexico does.
Layne says:
March 4, 2014 at 3:35 pm
I know it’s junk food, but I prefer Chili’s anyway
Chili’s have (I hope they still do) these “southern egg rolls”. They told me they buy them frozen from a supplier (not sure if they mentioned the name). Those things are great! I want the recipe 🙂
Lamont T. !
Do you realize how rare you are? Thank you, so much, for that. Oh, and OF COURSE, apology (not really necessary, but, boy was that a sight for oft-ignored eyes!) accepted with pleasure.
Janice
The trouble with outright lies is about 50% of people believe them, no matter how trivial the effect. I’m not worried this stupid article simply adds more sand to the AGW foundation……
Chipotle and other leftist corporate shills needs to boycotted. This is insane that Chipolte foists its leftist eco-radical bs on us. And by the way, avocados are cheaper then ever now. They are often 48 cents each at Sprouts, sometimes 3 for a buck. They used to be a lot more! Chipolte can get them even cheaper. They are just choosing to spew their leftist hooey on us. Stay away from their restaurants.
And, thanks Janice!
@Eric Simpson
I agree fully. I will never again purchase any products from delusional corporate sellouts such as Chipotle who apparently prefer to use their time making stupid press releases versus actually improving their products…
Right Frank, they are nothing less than corporate sellouts, choosing to tick off half or more of the population with their inanities. Anyway, as I said on Goddard: the latest prediction of doom is that in 30 years restaurants won’t be able to afford to have avocados in their guacamole. Instead it will be a mixture of trans-fats and soylent green! We are do oooh mmm duh!
So, McDonalds won’t be able to get avocadoes? Yeah, sure.
Chipotle fear that they might run out of avocado, but it is clear that they have an unlimited supply of stupid.
I am sorry but the guacalypse article cannot compare to the giant viruses article. Josh must see the article about giant viruses. HE MUST! And those movie guys in Japan are probably already writing the script! It will be a whole new genre of B movies about giant whatevers due to global warming! The Arctic melts and unleashes both a giant dinosaur and a giant virus that battle it out over New York City!
…which of course, is underwater.
So the Netherlands import 96,000 tons of avocadoes and export 79,000 tons and do not produce any significant quantity themselves. Is their currency the Euro or the Avo?
Hmmm I wonder if this has happened in the past. Do we have any paleo-Guacamole studies? (peer reviewed only). Or could someone please drill into the nearest avocado tree and let us know what the rings reveal….
@ Alan Robertson says:
March 4, 2014 at 2:59 pm
“Guac’s one thing, but pales in importance to tequila, which was an apparent influence on this report.”
+++++++++++++
@ James the Elder says:
March 4, 2014 at 3:00 pm
“How long before: 5% of the world’s population consumes 47% of the guacamole? We must attain guacamole independence.”
Y’all ROCK! But…I prefer Mezcal, which ain’t to say I don’t love tequila…and if you read the charts, I think 4% of the world’s population is ALREADY eatin’ 46% of the guac!
@ Janice Moore:
“WHO CARES. Just eat LOTS of guacamole (with chipotle peppers in it) and have a tall, frosty, salt-dipped-rimmed, glass of Rose’s Lime Juice in soda (no alcohol needed to get Margarita flavor).”
I usually toss habanero chilies in mine along with the chipotles. For myself, I use a 2-to-1 ratio: two habanero chilies to one guacamole nut. Two guacamole nuts, half or a skosh more Spanish onion, coupla cloves garlic, sal y pimiento al sabor, jugo de lima (I’ve heard of up to a quarter cup! GAH! Tooo wet!), as much of a bunch of cilantro as will still fit (hey, I can get it ALL in there!) and it qualifies as hot sauce! On the other hand, for my more rational moments, I’ll remember it’s two guacamole nuts to one habanero chili, and then people without my highly developed palate can enjoy it, too—
7;->
Hey, food that don’t bite back is boring!
P.S.: Never been inside a Chipotles, and only been in a Taco Bell once (and never any of it’s analogs), and that was over 30 years ago. Once upon a time, I used to spend every other weekend almost in Mexico in the Guaymas/San Carlos/Bahia de Kino area of Sonora. Would always stop at this little flyblown taquieria in Hermosillo…They never had guacamole there, but the tacos were to die for, and the salsa!
Chipotle’s et al: ersatz Tex-Mex corporate/franchise h3ll! “Sustainability” is a fad for them, and they’ll “support” it as long as they think it’ll help them make a buck of the marks, like the rest of the corporations who are trying to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs we like to call the United States in order to maximize their profits today, heck with tomorrow. Anyone remember a place called Easter Island? I highly recommend Jared Diamond’s “Collapse”.
Greedy, short-sighted cretins. I’d love to boycott them…but I’ve never been, and never would, so unfortunately, in my case, it’s not costing them anything.
But my word on it: ANYONE can make better guac than any commercial slime you can find out there, almost without trying. AND with no additives, so it’s better for you.
I’m seriously considering adding a Guacamology degree to my resume.
I really like the idea of a truly green degree! And it will come in handy, when the chips are down… };>)
Does anyone suspect the influence of the Obamas here? FLOTUS is hyperactive in food fascism, and POTUS is flogging his climate chops again now that he is exposed as a failed President. So, while dressed in AGW cammoflauge, she runs the avocado advocacy up the flagpole for the green-shirted followers to salute
FWIW – I had an avocado orchard in San Diego County until about 8 years ago. What killed avocado production in Southern California? Mexican avocados were allowed in the country (they weren’t for a very long time despite NAFTA – the excuse was pest control, which wasn’t really the case) and water. Water in California used to be cheap but, with more and more people, the price goes up for farmers and they move on to other crops.
It has nothing to due with climate change – avocados are a rare find in SD County without an irrigation system (although I have a cluster of 7 trees that thrive on a natural spring that waters them year round).
How about the Netherlands gobbling up 11.4 pounds of avocado per capita??? I’m taking my sombrero if I ever go…
Stark Dickflüssig says at 7:02 pm
So, McDonalds won’t be able to get avocadoes? Yeah, sure.
Wait, does McDonalds use avocados in anything? Its true that I haven’t been there that much lately, and when I do go, I usually just get Big Macs. Well, and for the most bang for your buck, a super sized fries. And a ss soda. And an apple pies. Plus, à la mode (the ice cream cone). But I didn’t notice any avocado tofu burger, or I might have just gone with that, with some flax milk. Maybe McDonalds will join that list of companies like Exxon (and Shill) declaring climate change to be real, and eliminate beef from their menu. Right. Then they’d have about 7 customers worldwide.
It’s worse that we thought! How can the world survive without guacamole?
Hey! I’ll be able to make a fortune smuggling Australian avocados into California.
What is about AGW true believers/hustlers and their need to act like Wiley Coyote, coming back to the same dumb stuff over and over again, no matter how obviously stupid and incorrect?
Greens I like (avacado, salad, money) 🙂
Seems to me warmer weather means more avocados, pineapples, oranges etc.
Just sayin’
RoHa says:
March 4, 2014 at 8:01 pm”
In New Zealand a few years ago freight trucks carrying avacados to supermarket were hijacked bacause of bad weather affecting growers and suppliers. For a short time, they were more expensive than bottles of booze and cigarettes. Go figure!
This attempt to shore up the Hispanic vote for AGW with this study seems to be in danger of losing the rational vote.
Which shows a lack of marketing expertise by the alarmists.
The Ven diagram of the Guacamolevore population has just as large an overlap as for any other group with the rational vote.
And as long as proper gravy, black puddings and sausages are in good supply I’m sure the world will survive.
RoHa says:
March 4, 2014 at 8:01 pm
It’s worse that we thought! How can the world survive without guacamole?
Hey! I’ll be able to make a fortune smuggling Australian avocados into California.
=========================================
Swapping your budgie smugglers for avocado smugglers, I presume?
Haggis update…record winter snow in Scotland caused by climate change has led to much longer hibernation terms for the poor wee haggis….resultant shortages are leading to panic buying up there.
James the Elder says:
March 4, 2014 at 3:00 pm
How long before: 5% of the world’s population consumes 47% of the guacamole? We must attain guacamole independence.
———————————————————————————————————————–
Obama needs to consider liberating Mexico to protect the guacamole companies in the US. This could be the defining moment of his presidency!
@goldminor – they use to be called “Banana Republics”, but due to the popularity of Guacamole, now they are Avocado Republics?
Avocado theft is a big deal, especially when the case price jumps up to 60+ dollars during the off season.
The Netherlands is not the most important customer of either Peru or Chile, Northern Europe is.
The fact that the Netherlands appears on the papers is because the stuff is shipped through Rotterdam, one of the biggest ports in that part of the world.
I love avocados, with prawns, a nice sauce and white wine.
@Ed Zuiderwijk – Avocados with Prawns? Interesting combination. Do you have a recipe?
As people who comment here probably know, bread in the US is not the bread that was available 60 years ago. Two things happened. High Fructose Corn Syrup was invented in 1966, which is used in your bread. http://www.the-healthy-diet-paradise.com/HFCS.html
Wheat is not the wheat it was. There are wheat bellies everywhere. http://www.mindbodygreen.com/0-9484/why-wheat-is-ruining-your-life-the-author-of-wheat-belly-explains.html
Therefore, spread avocado mulch on chickpea pancakes, waffles, bread etc & eat yourselves slimmer. Simples. http://www.bbc.co.uk/food/recipes/chickpeaflourpancake_5094
http://www.thewannabechef.net/2012/05/15/chickpea-flour-pancakes/
Incidentally, the fact that flatulence is reduced by switching to chickpeas is a blessing to Gaia, (whoever she is).
At (wait for it) ease,
Perry
Chipotle is the McDonalds of burritos.
“Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, for example, predict hotter temps will cause a 40 percent drop in California’s avocado production over the next 32 years.”
Of course that is not going to happen, and even if it DID happen, it would still not be a problem. Why? Because if the Earth warmed so much that California’s avocado crop dropped by 40%, that means that the Nebraska crop would increase by a near infinite percentage.
At least the warmist morons a getting a little smarter. Predictions far enough in the future they won’t have to defend when the fail.
More deliberate lying. Management knows that if they don’t sell the guacamole someone else will. California knows that if they don’t GROW the avocados someone else will. Free markets always find a way to provide what the public wants. If Chipotle doesn’t want to sell you Guacamole then go to Taco Bell.
Do we have any paleo-Guacamole studies?
Despite ongoing attempts, there is no proxy for that.
Isn’t it already warmer than California in most of the places avocados are grown?
This is another sign that the AGW BS campaign has shifted to food security warnings.
Avocado theft is a big deal, especially when the case price jumps up to 60+ dollars during the off season.
Swap you for five manhole covers.
I don’t like avocados nor guacamole, but I love this song, from The Texas Tornados:
/Mr Lynn
re: M Courtney says March 5, 2014 at 12:46 am
…The Ven diagram …
“Venn”; conceived around 1880 by John Venn (no kidding!)
.
The weirdest part about this is that avocados have never been cheaper or more abundant as they are right now. They’re only 62 cents at WalMart. Ten years ago they were $1.25.
Here’s a link to the Yahoo Finance thread on this topic (following a 1-minute video):
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/hot-stock-minute/no-more-guacamole-143253528.html
Here’s what the most recent commenter said:
McDonalds is a rather large investor in Chipotle, though they have been rather careful to keep the total owership below 50%. McDs also provided most of their startup financing, & does their shipping & procurement. So technically McDs doesn’t own ’em outright, but for all practical purposes it’s McDonalds who will or will not be able to afford to have avocadoes shipped here from Kenya or Indonesia or Swaziland or Burma or Greenland or where ever the testesfruit* is being grown in 20 years.
*man, them things are wrinkly, ain’t they?
At least this will offer some relief to Mexico with their most important cash crop (marijuana) in legal jeopardy (i.e. becoming legal).
“Scientists from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, for example, predict hotter temps will cause a 40 percent drop in California’s avocado production over the next 32 years.”
Yes but the top-down organic-local-only-low-water-use sustainable agricultural legislation can easily do it in one Five Year Plan.
Anyways, everyone knows California’s sole fame and contribution to gourmet Mexican food is Baja Fresh.
1. Climate models predicted the rise and fall of Hitler.
2. Climate models predicted Justin Bieber’s downfall.
3, Climate models predicted that Chipolte’s would stop serving Guac and…..
Just because climate models failed to predict no atmospheric warming for 17 years, 6 month you deniers decide to “cherry pick” and say the models don’t work. Pathetic…
Eric Simpson (Mar 4 7:46pm)- Do MacDonald’s even use apple in anything?
We are regular consumers of avocados. Unless you want to buy your avocados from Whole Foods, they are pretty cheap and have been for quite a few months now.
Funny, when we lived there, they were called “Lawrence Live No More Labs”, I guess this latest pronouncement will do nothing to hinder that….
On the other hand, there was a nice Chevy’s in Pleasanton, with a geek-magnet tortilla-making machine….right up there with Legoland’s pizza-making machine (OK, pizza purists are probably appalled, but the pizza wasn’t THAT bad, and it was fun to watch the machine in action)…
The best guaco is home made, with fresh Avocados (that’s the hard part here in Germany – they seem to go from unripe to rotten in some sort of fruit-sublimation process), finely diced tomatoes and onions, a little garlic, salt, pepper, lime juice, Tabasco…mash away, add Margaritas and Tacos on the side…ahhhhh
I’ve seen Avocados here from Israel, Peru, Holland, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa…greenhouse fresh versus farm-grown “store ripe”….sigh…wonder if they’d grow on the warm side of Scotland (someone told me they could grow bananas there…not sure if he was having me on or not…)…
Just thinking, with all of these, er, well-travelled (but unripe) Avocados making their way into stores here, maybe there should be another CAMRA over here….CAMpaign for Ripe Avocados…..
So, no mention of lettuce, pork, beef, tomatoes, Capsicum, flour, corn, & any of two dozen other things that could be impacted[sic] by climate change, even though they’re so thorough about all this & that’s why they brought it up, yeah? I mean, we had a late freeze a decade ago that killed off enough of the tomato crop on Arkansas to quadruple prices, but I guess abnormal freezes are just weather.
In any case, the availability of water in California is mostly political, not environmental (seeing as how there’s already not enough, & they have to pipe it in). & given the state of the avocado sector of the economy, I’d guess it’ll be just fine if California gets out of the produce business & goes back to doing what they do best: creating murdering, marxist loons.
“Dave N says:
March 4, 2014 at 5:46 pm
Layne says:
March 4, 2014 at 3:35 pm
I know it’s junk food, but I prefer Chili’s anyway
Chili’s have (I hope they still do) these “southern egg rolls”. They told me they buy them frozen from a supplier (not sure if they mentioned the name). Those things are great! I want the recipe :-)”
COSTCO 🙂
“Charlie Johnson (@SemperBanU) says:
March 4, 2014 at 7:43 pm
FWIW – I had an avocado orchard in San Diego County until about 8 years ago. What killed avocado production in Southern California? Mexican avocados were allowed in the country (they weren’t for a very long time despite NAFTA – the excuse was pest control, which wasn’t really the case) and water. Water in California used to be cheap but, with more and more people, the price goes up for farmers and they move on to other crops.
It has nothing to due with climate change – avocados are a rare find in SD County without an irrigation system (although I have a cluster of 7 trees that thrive on a natural spring that waters them year round).”
Many, many, many years ago, Avocado “farming” was a tax shelter, at least in California….then Avos became cheaper, and cheaper, and cheaper, until they hit sort of an Avocado-event-horizon and the market collapsed on itself…I suspect the production was FAR above what the current levels are…I think this was the late 70s, so the weather was probably about the same….(and the climate as well….)
“FreddyB says:
March 4, 2014 at 7:45 pm
How about the Netherlands gobbling up 11.4 pounds of avocado per capita??? I’m taking my sombrero if I ever go…”
Be sure to go to an Indonesian Reistafel (sp?) as well…they have a LOT of interesting dishes…
They seem to have the best handle on Mexican food over here…a number of good online shops, and when they say something is “muy picante”….it is…not like here in “beautiful downtown Deutschland” (for those who remember Johnny Carson and beautiful downtown Burbank)…but in South Germany it seems more “spicy not hot”…hey, it’s great here…just a shortage of Tex-Mex, warming or not….
P.S. Thanks for borrowing our normally COLD winter….saved a bit on the heating bill this year 🙂
P.P.S. Hope everyone’s OK….cold is wayyyyyy more of a problem than warm….
Mainstream media shoots self in the foot, again.
They run a silly bogus story with no fact checking and then have to retract. And they played right into Chipotle’s hands by providing a boatload of advertizing for zero revenue.
Shame on all the participants in this shameless publicity stunt.
As an aside, has anyone calculated the aggregate volume of greenhouse gases produced by guacamole induced farting? Just wonderin’…
“John S. says:
March 5, 2014 at 10:04 am
1. Climate models predicted the rise and fall of Hitler.
2. Climate models predicted Justin Bieber’s downfall.
3, Climate models predicted that Chipolte’s would stop serving Guac and…..
Just because climate models failed to predict no atmospheric warming for 17 years, 6 month you deniers decide to “cherry pick” and say the models don’t work. Pathetic…”
John, I hope you just forgot the tag on your post….otherwise I suggest you go upstairs and apologise to your
mother for wasting bandwidth on your internet connection.
As far as Hitler, there was no better than Carter, from Hogan’s Heroes…
“Mike Jonas says:
March 5, 2014 at 12:28 pm
Eric Simpson (Mar 4 7:46pm)- Do MacDonald’s even use apple in anything?”
Had a cherry pie there the other day….tasted like it had orange peel (or Cointreau[!]) in it….
Have a look at Quaker Instant Oatmeal sometime…love the stuff, but pear parts with flavoring
just aren’t the real thing….would rather pay more for the real deal…
Chipotle’s appears to be a response to Green Burrito (and Red Burrito) from Carl’s Jr.and Hardee’s who are Mexican-food subs. of the respective burger/food empires. Back in the day they served humongous portions of pretty good food (at least on trips from SJ to LA)…Taco Bell’s Border Bell (test?) restaurants were a step above, however…
(Sorry, don’t mean to turn this into a food thread….)…
It seems that my (non w3c compliant 🙂 ) tag was munched…I meant to have:
“John, I hope you just forgot the /sarc tag on your post….”
Oh well, sometimes the brackets just get in the way….
HEADLINE: THINGS MAY NOT ALWAYS BE THE SAME! FILM AT 11!
http://www.avocadosource.com/WAC1/WAC1_p088.htm
Has some production numbers from about 1987 for California and Florida. But also this interesting note:
So, for any given warming, we ought to be gaining production in places with freeze limited production ability. I would point out this includes more northern areas of California (where all the rain and water are located…)
I can speak to this personally, as Sunset Garden came out to the home of my wife’s family to inspect their avocado tree (a Bacon type) as they thought it was not possible to grow avocadoes in San Jose. Also in the yard of a college friend was a very mature avocado tree that made way too many avocadoes each year. Moral of story? You can grow SOME avocadoes here (mostly cool tolerant types) and any added warmth will just make it that much better for production!
Oh, and as of now, there’s a small Bacon Avocado tree in the yard that has been grown from seed from that parent tree and is about 6 years old. Likely to start bearing fruit soon…
Now, just one other side note or two…
First off, even back in 1987 production in California was about 176,000 short tons. Call it 352,560,400 pounds. Now look at Chipotle consumption… 97,000 lbs… so only 352,460,000 or so pounds left for everyone else and / or reduction of production. FWIW I think production has increased since ’87, but have not dug out the numbers…
In any case, the Cipotle consumption is an irrelevant smidge compared to even just California production levels, and any “warming” would increase usable land for Avocados (even inside California, but also including Texas).
Oh, and they are saying that more warmth causes LESS rain? I thought the current mantra was that more warmth caused MORE precipitation (thus the giant snow fall…). They really need to make up their minds…
WUWT says, “But a restaurant spokesman tells the Los Angeles Times: “This is way overblown.””
That is true, compared to Chipotle’s extremely negative ad campaign, “Farmed and Dangerous,” a little AGW “food security messaging”* is mere child’s play:
Boycott Chipotle: My Farm Is Not Dangerous
via thefoodiefarmer.blogspot.com
“Chipotle recently launched a new negative ad campaign called “Farmed and Dangerous” spewing propaganda about today’s modern farm families. Its a “comedy” that really isn’t funny, in fact its downright offensive and frankly really ignorant on their part. Its the moralistic view of food eliteism that somehow as a fast food chain, they’re superior in ethics, taste, and quality…. Really?
Myth: Chipotle wants you to believe that your food is produced by “industrial agriculture”
Fact: According to USDA “Ninety-seven percent of U.S. farms are family farms where the majority of the business is owned by the operator and individuals related to the operator.”
Myth: Chipotle wants you to believe that your food is produced by “factory farms”.
Fact: Our storage tanks for grain are about as “factory” as we get on our farm. Really, they’re akin to tupperware (of sorts) for many bushels of grain. Our equipment may make us more efficient, but it certainly doesn’t qualify us as a “factory”.
Myth: Chipotle wants you to believe that what we do is top secret to keep consumers in the
dark about what we are “really” doing on our farm.
Fact: Our business is wide open, you can drive by any day of the week and
witness for yourself what we are doing. In fact, we’ll give you a tour!
Chipotle is marketing itself based on its perceived sense of higher authority
and values in the food chain system.
My family is boycotting Chipotle.
No one in my family will ever eat at Chipotle’s again.”
*ref: Resourceguy says: This is another sign that the AGW BS campaign has shifted to food security warnings.
E.M.Smith says:
March 6, 2014 at 11:16 am
————————————–
There was/is a producing avocado tree in a backyard in San Francisco. It was a huge old tree around 40+ foot tall. I had a friend who lived in an adjacent building. All of the neighboring backyards had avocados dropping in their yards.