Readers surely recall the Stadium Wave hypothesis for ‘the pause’. Marcia Wyatt (co-author with Judith Curry) writes:
I have built a web site. It started out as just a site with the stadium-wave publications posted. But within the last month, after realizing that many could not access the papers, or were not inclined to tackle the reading, I decided I would try to make the hypothesis more accessible. Much of this revised web-site content focuses on the ‘wave’, explaining it in layperson-friendly terms, giving in-depth discussion in supplementary sections, and describing how the ‘wave’ idea came about and subsequently evolved. In addition, I have posted all related publications on a separate page. And finally, on yet another page of the site, I will post some of my work. This will include: past research related to the development of the stadium-wave concept; a variety of topics in climate and geology; and reviews of current articles. I will try to keep this page new and alive by adding to it regularly.
How she got started in this is even more interesting, like me, she fell into climate later in life:
My undergraduate schooling, followed by occasional excursions into teaching and writing – all revolved around geology. But not climate. I fell into that quite by accident. It came about in the most unlikely way, and long after my undergraduate days. It was a sneaky unfolding of events, starting with a geology book I had been writing off and on for years, back when typewriters and life’s itinerary ensured slow progress. During one of the ‘on’ times, I began a chapter on sedimentary rocks. That laid bare my ignorance. Sedimentary rocks are record keepers of past climate – a topic about which I knew little. One thing led to another. Self-guided study morphed that sedimentary-rock chapter into a 300-page tome on climate. I submitted it to Cambridge University Press. The manuscript went to review. Comments were favorable; yet a collective question resounded: “Who is Marcia Wyatt!” It was a question that changed my life!
Jumping over remaining details of this unlikely journey, here I stand on the other side of that sedimentary-rock chapter, masters and doctorate now in hand. Never could I have predicted or designed this trajectory of events, nor could I have imagined that such good fortune would have placed so many fine and supportive people along it.
My thesis work was on the Stadium-Wave hypothesis.
Read more here on the Stadium Wave: http://www.wyattonearth.net/
Good luck with your website Marcia. I’ll visit often for updates. Just a small thing – reading reversed out text can be hard on ageing eyes.
Crazy George invented the Wave for Stadiums.
http://www.krazygeorge.com/wave.html
Next step is to ascertain how the stadium wave changes scale and timing over the millennial climate cycle such as from Roman Warm Period, Dark Ages, Mediaeval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and current warm spell.
The fact that there is a wave form in the way that climate shifts move around the globe is hardly surprising in itself due to the thermal capacity and inertia of the oceans.
Please, Dr. Wyatt, black writing on a white background.
Pretty please?
I’ve discovered how to read in B & W.
Click “file”, then “print preview” – everything comes up B & W.
Well it does on this old steam-driven machine, anyway.
Excellent work. I have added it to my bookmarks. Hope to see more from her.
Lewis P Buckingham:
At February 18, 2014 at 2:05 am you suggest
Not everybody agrees
Shakespeare W
Richard
What an inspiring story of persistence in the search of knowledge and scientific grounding. A site I will share with others who are, better late than never, realizing the dream of career change, wish fulfilled. Thanks for this posting.
Marcia:
I think it interesting that whilst the Stadium Wave paper is about the Arctic, a similar cyclic pattern around the same periodicity shows up in the longer Global Temperature record as well.
http://i29.photobucket.com/albums/c274/richardlinsleyhood/Fig8HadCrutGISSRSSandUAHGlobalAnnualAnomalies-Aligned1979-2013withGaussianlowpassandSavitzky-Golay15yearfilters_zps670ad950.png
I have One quibble…. I’d like to see the above chart in a Readable form, if you please! When I click upon it, either here, or at your page, it is the same size.
I’d like to be able to present your website where I post my arguments, for those who really want to learn about the climate… and a much larger version of that picture would go a long way towards that goal.
Oldseadog says:
February 18, 2014 at 2:11 am
Please, Dr. Wyatt, black writing on a white background.
Pretty please?
I second that request.
Research shows it is easier for us to read plack on white than vice versa.
Eyal Porat says:
February 18, 2014 at 3:21 am
Oldseadog says:
February 18, 2014 at 2:11 am
Please, Dr. Wyatt, black writing on a white background.
Pretty please?
I second that request.
Research shows it is easier for us to read plack on white than vice versa.
I agree also, content is much more important than style.
RE: Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter) @ 2:48 am.
The graph is found in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere’s climate variability, p. 61 (PDF), on of the papers linked at her site. It may be in others. I haven’t finised reading them all.
Oldseadog says: @ February 18, 2014 at 2:16 am
I’ve discovered how to read in B & W.
Click “file”, then “print preview” – everything comes up B & W.
Well it does on this old steam-driven machine, anyway.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You can use the “ctrl” and “a” keys pressed down at the same time.
Like you I hate white letters on a dark background. My aging eyes combined with a major astigmatism makes the text completely unreadable.
RE: RE: Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter) @ 2:48 am.
A quick scan shows the annotated graph here: Role for Eurasian Arctic shelf sea ice in a secularly varying hemispheric climate signal during the 20th century, p. 53, Fig. 3).
Gail Combs says: February 18, 2014 at 6:37 am
Oldseadog says: @ February 18, 2014 at 2:16 am
I’ve discovered how to read in B & W.
Click “file”, then “print preview” – everything comes up B & W.
Well it does on this old steam-driven machine, anyway.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You can use the “ctrl” and “a” keys pressed down at the same time.
Can anyone please translate that to Apple?
richardscourtney says:
February 18, 2014 at 2:18 am
I listen when The Bard speaks but I would also like to hear Nick Bostrom’s take on the subject.
One trick for reversing white on dark text.
Use your mouse to select the text you want to read.
That usually turns it to dark text on a light background.
J says:February 18, 2014 at 7:53 am
One trick for reversing white on dark text.
Use your mouse to select the text you want to read.
That usually turns it to dark text on a light background.
Thanks for the response. I tried that and ended up with white text on light blue background. There was less contract and arguable made the situation worse.
To PMHinSC
Hold down – control – option and command at the same time then press 8.
While the background will not turn white mine turned to a lighter shade and the text black.
You will have to reverse it again as it does not seems to be specific to just that one document.
Command+A
But it will have the same effect as using a mouse to select text.
outtheback says: February 18, 2014 at 8:46 am
Hold down – control – option and command at the same time then press 8.
That works! Off white background but definitely much better.
Thanks
Interesting story, Marcia, your evolution into climate science. However I’m surprised that your education in geology, taken apparently some time ago, didn’t underscore the paleo-climate connection (arid, moist, tropical land seds, littoral to deep sea: beaches, currents, wave action, shallow water, shelf, abyssal, glacial tills [even in South Africa – Dwyka tillite], etc) with sedimentary rocks, their compositions and textures as well as sea level rises and falls (marine transgressions and regressions). I’m sure you now know a heck of a lot more than I do about it (studied in the 1950s).
My finding with more recent graduates is the whole subject has been greatly trimmed down and diluted. I hired a geologist a few years ago for mineral exploration work who had specialized in remote sensing. When I found deficiencies in her work, she told me that she had not taken the “mineralogy option”!!! I began teaching her hands-on mineralogy, petrology and structural geology so she could deal with exploration and mapping in the particular area we were in. She was very grateful and decided to go back to university where she filled in the gaps.
For those using the Stylish browser plug in, I whipped up a quick CSS for the wyattonearth site to switch it to a black-on-white sans serif theme.
This paper by Zhou and Roy suggests that a network of nonlinear oscillators stabilize each other – the network is more stable than any individual oscillator would be alone.
As noted above, Dr Wyatt’s wyattonearth web site has a few design flaws that need fixin’.
First, it’s hard to read. White text on dark grey, small font size, and justified.
At least turn off the justification, please. That makes sentence start and end easier to distinguish.
Second, some non-linked text is underlined. Try bold or italics.
Third, the graph is hard to read, small size and fuzzy lines.
IE and Firefox users can go to the View dropdown in the File Edit View line and turn off the Style or Page Style items. That kills the white-on-grey and justification.
Looks like a lot of work and thorough investigation went into the paper. Thanks.
Those complaining about Marcia Wyatt’s visuals should go to Luboš Motl’s The Reference Frame (well worth the read, by the way) and then thank Marcia for saving your eyes.
Orkneygirl – KrazyGeorge first used the wave during the mid ’70’s at Spartan Stadium during San Jose State football games, the only difference being the two sides of the stands were not physically connected, so it was not a continuous wave that traversed the stadium.
It was great fun to have him lead the cheering for the then ranked Spartans led by Roger Profitt, Kim Bokamper, and others, such Steve DeBerg.
Quite a complicated story. Ockham’s razor would suggest the simplest explanation of the pause is exactly what we see: there is no greenhouse warming and there never was any. Claims of earlier greenhouse warmings are simply due to misidentification by over-eager “climate” scientists.
Congratulations!
It would be wonderful if you could do an interactive interview on said subject matter. You know, talk to the points that produced this whole thing.
It would be doubly wonderful if your associate could participate too. She did a great job a few weeks ago as part of our government process.
This is a good and important thing. Make it the best it can be!
Cheers to you both!
It would be nice if Wyatt-on-earth contained a blog forum for discussion. I couldn’t find one.
Looking at the stadium wavetrain figure its easy to see why there were major ocean-driven climate regime-changes / phase shifts in both the late 30’s and mid 70’s.
Having brought attention for many years to multidecadal oscillations as the most prominent spectral feature in surface temperature records (both instrumented and proxy, as seen at: http://s1188.photobucket.com/user/skygram/media/graph2.jpg) considered over human lifetimes, I’m less than impressed with Wyatt’s “stadium wave” explanation in terms of a Siberian Arctic genesis. There’s no physics, such as a Laplacian specifying the propagation of any such physical wave, to support this explanation. Nor is the notion that a cold (heat-sink) region, rather than a warm (heat-source) region, drives a thermal wave plausible thermodynamically. What Wyatt presents with much fanfare is a purely phenomenological analysis with a gimmicky name. And now there is a web-site. Sound scientific explanations do not depend upon such props.
Try this link:
http://s1188.photobucket.com/user/skygram/media/graph2.jpg.html?filters%5Buser%5D=120945271&filters%5Brecent%5D=1&sort=1&o=1#/user/skygram/media/graph2.jpg.html?filters%5Buser%5D=120945271&filters%5Brecent%5D=1&sort=1&o=1&_suid=139285902635304475330761264672