Satellites show no global warming for 17 years 5 months

FLATBy Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The monthly satellite lower-troposphere temperature anomaly from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc., is now available.

Taking the least-squares linear-regression trend on this dataset (the bright blue horizontal line through the dark blue data), there has now been no global warming – at all – for 17 years 5 months.

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Would readers like to make a projection of how many mainstream media outlets will report this surely not uninteresting fact?

It shows that the Hiatus hernia for true believers in the New Religion continues.

My own prediction is that the number of media reporting 17 years 5 months without any global warming will be approximately equal to the number of general-circulation models that predicted such a long Pause notwithstanding ever-rising CO2 concentration.

Print out the graph as a postcard and send it to the editor of a newspaper near you that has shut down democratic debate by announcing that it will refuse to print any letters at all from “climate deniers”.

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Fabi

Hiatus hernia! Lovely…

Bill H

When one’s group is shown deficient because the facts do not support them the only recourse left is to deny a voice to those exposing the lie.
The Liberal Main Stream Media following the emperor and his new cloths blindly.

Latitude

17 years 5 months of lying……..

@Fabi – Good one!

NikFromNYC

Yet, energy rationing.

Ted Clayton

A gamble at which we will modulate the pleasure of being proven wrong.
Times they are a-changing, and perhaps a bit quicker with the British media.
I will predict 2 independent publishers, within 10 days, one in England, and another – notable – elsewhere.

Gary Pearse

And on top of this, they have levered the pre-satellite record downwards to get rid of the pesky 1930s/early 40s record temps, believing, apparently correctly, that the big El Nino of 1998 may be the last chance to get a new world record for some time. I have to admit that I’m frustrated the temp isn’t declining a little bit in retribution for all the augmentations to warming that were done in the 1990s. How much discretion is there in “validating” the satellite record. If there is any, it will be to jack up the right end of graph.

pat

send it to this crowd, incl the “scientists”:
6 Feb: eScienceNews: University of Montana research shows converting land to agriculture reduces carbon uptake
Postdoctoral researcher Bill Smith and UM faculty members Steve Running and Cory Cleveland, along with a former UM postdoctoral researcher and current USGS scientist Sasha Reed, used estimates of agricultural NPP and satellite-derived estimates of natural NPP to evaluate the impact of expanding agricultural land to meet needs for food and fiber. Terrestrial NPP represents the total annual growth of vegetation on the land, which is a critical factor that helps determine how much carbon can be absorbed and stored from the atmosphere…
“Current forecasts suggest that global food demand will likely double by 2050,” Smith said. “We hope that this research will help to identify strategies that, from a carbon balance perspective, should be avoided due to the potential for severe degradation of global vegetation growth and carbon storage.”
http://esciencenews.com/articles/2014/02/06/university.montana.research.shows.converting.land.agriculture.reduces.carbon.uptake

u.k.(us)

If you included the as/built, proposed to be built (a dying breed), cost/ benefit ratios of the solutions, the general public might go to sleep.
It can be hard to compete when you have a seemingly endless supply of other peoples money.
That will be their downfall, they feel it right now.
Promises not kept.

That’s an impressive graph.
Individuals are waking up and stepping across to the Questioner and Realist side. As the numbers increase, the wake-up accelerates – more people are talking, more people are listening and raising their own questions. The murmur is rippling through the crowd. Eventually (potentially quite soon), the change will swing the balance fully the other way… Now there’s a tipping point I’m looking forward to. 🙂

jones

Is that the same as saying the warmest 17 years on record have occurred in the last 17 years?

William Yarber

The spike in Earth’s computed mean temperature from approximately 03/31/97 to 03/31/98 is 1C. This is 30% greater than any other spike I can find in the satellite or land based temperature records going back to 1880. I don’t believe the El Nin~a in ’98 was strong enough to account for this anomalous spike. And NASA/NOAA TOD adjustment had not been injected into the US land base records.
Where did all this extra energy come from? I think the Earth received a glancing blow from a gamma ray burst. Any other plausible sources, explanations?
Bill

u.k.(us)

jones says:
February 6, 2014 at 6:44 pm
Is that the same as saying the warmest 17 years on record have occurred in the last 17 years?
============
Is that the same as saying, you give up and need a governance to run your life ?

Txomin

Satellites are climate deniers.

Siberian_Husky

Awesome comment Jonesy! Bosh! Bwahahahahaha…

Here are a couple of additional facts that the editorial board of the SouthCoastToday.com seems to have forgotten;
A) the unanimous consensus of a theory doesn’t make it a fact, and
B) correlation does not equate to causation.

JimS

The heat is hiding in the oceans. Apparently Lord Monckton did not get the memo.

Alice and I will be in Antarctica in two weeks with Lindblad/National Geographic. Their 80-page handout, which is excellent for exploration history and flora and fauna, contains the obligatory pages that the Antarctic is warming and sea ice is shrinking. Further, global warming and the expanding ozone hole are going to kill off the diatoms, which will starve the krill, which will starve the fish, birds, seals, whales, and everything else except we pampered tourists, who will still marvel at the abundance of all the starving creatures. I’ll come armed with my Dr. H H Lamb climate history books, numerous charts and graphs gleaned from WUWT, Climate Depot, &etc., but I have a feeling that I will be the skunk that just wandered in during church services, the blasphemer in the cathedral of the true believers. It should be a lot of fun.

jones says:
February 6, 2014 at 6:44 pm
Is that the same as saying the warmest 17 years on record have occurred in the last 17 years?
—————————————————————————-
Look no further than 1998 on the graph…it stands out as the warmest year…

george e. smith

Well my calibrated eyeball can look at his Lordship’s plotted data from RSS, and noting the well known 1998 and 2010 El Nino events, and maybe some La Ninas in there too, I can discern a definite curvature, of a local maximum, in that 17 years and five months of data.
I see not a hint of a cubic like point of inflection, which might signal a temporary plateau, preceding a new uptick coming soon.
I don’t have Lord Monckton’s plotting skills, but I’m curious if it is feasible to try fitting with some sort of least squares fit criterion, a simple circular arc of as yet unknown curvature, in the manner in which Christopher arrived at his best fit straight line.
Then for encores, is it perhaps possible, or just wishful thinking, that fitting some circle and getting a smaller RMS deviation, than this FLAT trend line, would be indicative of the circle being the better fit; or is that just some BS I might have stepped on ??
Anyhow my eye says it curves down, just like my eyebrows.

troe

The warming jalopy has broken down so we are left with the money grubbing to talk about. That is an easier case to make. Everyone understands greed.

John F. Hultquist

William Yarber says:
February 6, 2014 at 6:45 pm

If you have written your question without knowledge of the posts of Bob Tisdale then you should go to his site and start reading (or search on WUWT for them). Use this to get to his El Niño – La Niña posts.
Click here.
If you believe a “gamma ray burst” is responsible for the spike can you provide a reference for such?

Richard Day

Those satellites are part of the 3% that don’t agree with the consensus.

u.k.(us)

Michael B. Combs says:
February 6, 2014 at 7:44 pm
============
Just enjoy the experience, it would be foolish to do otherwise.
At best it is only 1 data point, which means nothing.
Put the camera away and just observe.
Wish I was there 🙂

Alice and I will enjoy it all, and I live to have good arguments. It is always more interesting to talk to someone who disagrees with me than with someone who doesn’t. I live in a very anthropogenic climate change region of northern California, and have named my opposition the natural climate change deniers after they chose to call me a climate change denier. And still do, although my weekly letters to the local paper, which always are printed, usually include my statement that climate change has been a constant since atmosphere on Earth began. It’s odd to [be] told I deny what I don’t by those who purportedly read my letters.

Werner Brozek

jones says:
February 6, 2014 at 6:44 pm
Is that the same as saying the warmest 17 years on record have occurred in the last 17 years?
It is more or less true, but there are exceptions. 2000, with an anomaly of 0.092 is 18th and 2008, with an anomaly of 0.046, is 24th.
But on the other hand, 1987, with an anomaly of 0.099 is 17th and 1995, with an anomaly of 0.159, is 13th.

Walter Dnes has an article at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/01/the-january-leading-indicator/
I do not know how accurate it will be for this year. Nor do I know if a La Nina will develop this year since the latest number is -0.7 C. However the January anomaly for RSS was 0.262 so the best “guess” according to my interpretation of Walter Dnes would be an average of 0.205 or a final ranking of 11 for RSS for 2014.

Then for encores, is it perhaps possible, or just wishful thinking, that fitting some circle and getting a smaller RMS deviation, than this FLAT trend line, would be indicative of the circle being the better fit; or is that just some BS I might have stepped on ??
Anyhow my eye says it curves down, just like my eyebrows.

Eyes are notorious for their abilities to find trends where none exists. You could easily test it in Excel with a second order fit.

brians356

Is the “Trend -0.00%” really that accurate? I was taught not to pad the zeros if they are not significant. (The earliest value in the displayed plot is lower than the latest value, which tends to imply rounding off.) Jist askin’, Milor’.

John F. Hultquist

Michael B. Combs says:
February 6, 2014 at 7:44 pm

Dear Skunk,
Can you find out who is responsible for the “color commentary” on your trip. I could not find it. National Geographic is in with both (all) feet regarding CAGW but the “expert” on board may be someone such as a retired university instructor. Some such are less strident than others but likely will follow the program if they want to get another paid vacation.
Please do report back.

I think it will be Lisa Kelley. Her bio shows her to be very accomplished, so it will be interesting to get her take on the global warming issue in the Antarctic. https://www.expeditions.com/why-us/expedition-team/staff-bios/lisa-kelley/

george e. smith says:
February 6, 2014 at 7:58 pm
Anyhow my eye says it curves down, just like my eyebrows.
You are right. It curves down at the end just like a sine wave. But since WFT makes lines easiest, see the following down slope.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.65/plot/rss/from:1996.65/to:2005/trend/plot/rss/from:2005/trend

Adam

What I love is the scale that you have to use to show anything at all happening. You have to talk about 10th and 100ths of a degree. It is *insanity* to worry about these numbers.

John F. Hultquist

jones, u.k.(us), Ben D, Werner,
I have been above my life’s average height for many many years. However, at my last annual doctor’s visit the nurse told me I was getting shorter (and wider, but let’s not talk about that). My working hypothesis is that Earth’s atmospheric temperature peaked a few years ago and, like my height, is now dropping. Neither of these things do I think of as good.

brians356 says:
February 6, 2014 at 8:20 pm
Is the “Trend -0.00%” really that accurate?
The number according to WFT is slope = -0.000 139 029 per year. Of course we all know it is not accurate to the nearest billionth, but the thing to note is that it is negative and not positive.
However if you are interested in statistically significant warming for RSS, that is since November 1992: CI from -0.018 to 1.936.
See: http://moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/temperature-trend-viewer.html?Xxdat=%5B0,1,4,48,92%5D.

david dohbro

although applying linear regression through none-linear, stochastic data is technically/mathematically totally incorrect and an invalid technique, it does serve the purpose of showing that GSTA have neither increased nor decreased over the past 17.5yrs, which is the easiest statistical technique to comprehend for the human brain and general public enlarge. It shows AGW is not accelerating as some pundits may claim. Neither does it show warming, nor cooling. It would be even better to add the temporal atmospheric CO2 concentrations below, above or behind this plot to show the none-correlation between CO2 and GSTA.
Applying none-linear stochastic statistics to this type of data is most appropriate, but alas the general public won’t understand it. So for now, let’s carry on. Brilliant work and let people know that warm is not the same as warmING…

davidmhoffer

John F Hultquist;
However, at my last annual doctor’s visit the nurse told me I was getting shorter (and wider, but let’s not talk about that). My working hypothesis is that Earth’s atmospheric temperature peaked a few years ago and, like my height, is now dropping. Neither of these things do I think of as good.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
The condition can be remedied by ensuring that you lie down whilst the measurements are being taken. In this manner, your most recent results will indicate that you are getting thinner and taller.

ossqss


I hope this works from my taet. It has become quite the pain doing youtube ffrom a mobile device lately in a post…..
This whole thing just doesn’t smell right!
Just sayin……

ossqss

Mods, little help?
Go figure!

NucEngineer

I am sure the CAGW believers will say we are “cherry picking” to get this result. However, cherry picking is selecting BOTH the beginning and end point. When one of the end points is the present, that is not cherry picking. No warming in 17 years 5 months is just what it is, no warming.
The pause continues.

WeatherOrNot

What happens if we take the RSS back 30 years or even back to the beginning of its measurements? I’m guessing the trend would show a minuscule rise, probably right in line with the natural variability of our climate over the last few thousand years….

Rob

I call it…The Unchanging Climate.
But the government will “fight it”???

John Law

Looks like ( Ex) Prince Charles was right about “flat” Earthers, just in the wrong way!
Tumbrils please.

brians356

Rob,
“Climate Stasis”?

AndyL

I suspect too much is being made of this.
I’m not able to calculate this, but I would make a strong guess that the 1998 peak has a strong influence in making the trend line flat. If that year was not present (or if the temperature was average), I would expect the trend over the last 17 years to be positive.
A simple test for this would be to identify the trend since 1999. Another way would be to lower the 1998 figure to the average for the period so that its influence is removed.

Matt

[snip and it’s really hard to stomach a website full of made up stuff like your citation of “rationalwiki” take it elsewhere -mod]

norah4you

Reblogga detta på Norah4you's Weblog and commented:
Så visade sig det att verkliga data från satelliterna inte alls stödde CO2-hot folkets påstående om Global uppvärmning…..
Vart har alla pengar för klimatkompensation, ‘rädda isbjörnar’ m.m. gått? Frågan måste besvaras snarast.

John F. Hultquist

AndyL at 10:38
The 1998 peak resulted from physical processes and the follow-on but smaller peaks are related to the first. Get rid of the first and you get rid of them all. This would be just playing with numbers and have nothing to do with the processes.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Matt at 10:45
You failed to mention anything about the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) report or the finding of the 17 years and 5 months without warming. Why not have a look at what they do and see if it makes any sense to you.
http://www.remss.com/
If I were to read a weather forecast on the web I would not be interested in what the writer thought about religion, aids, or Jello. Please try to be useful in these discussions. Thanks.

Occam's Razor

So…No issue with the findings as reported, but you’ll write a page-long diatribe to cry “hypocrite” over two words at the end of a single sentence in the article speculating on the reaction (or lack thereof) to the chart? Priceless.

SkepticGoneWild

Matt,
Monckton is not posting anything even analogous to your rant (February 6, 2014 at 10:45 pm) in this forum. So why don’t you take your trash talk elsewhere and stuff it up your a**. This is a science related forum.

Janice Moore

Print out the graph as a postcard … .
Great idea! I’ll make several and send them to….
A high school senior I know…
_________________________________________________
Hi, Kate,
There has been NO warming of global temperatures since…
before you were born! Very cool, no?
Love,
Janice
__________________________________________________
And a college senior I know…
__________________________________________________
Hey, Zach,
No global warming since you were 4 years old. And, yes,
that completely blows Al Gore, et. al. out of the water.
Bwah, ha, ha, ha, haaaaa!
Go with Rice U. — Berkley is a has been.
Take care,
Janice
____________________________________________________
And a 20-something entrepreneur…
__________________________________________________
Hi, Danni,
NO GLOBAL WARMING SINCE you went to Disneyland for the
first time. CO2 UP. WARMING STOPPED.
Buy: Conoco, XTO, and United States Steel Corp. (that pipeline
WILL happen) — oh, and Boeing (of course!) #(:))
(re: that guy you brought home for Christmas — dump him
he is just using you until that talking Barbie doll Karissa gets back;
he talked about HER the entire time he was here!!! ugh)
Love and a hug,
Janice
_______________________________________________