Falling temperatures are giving climate alarmists chills
Global warming is nowhere to be found. The mean global temperature has not risen in 17 years and has been slowly falling for approximately the past 10 years. In 2013, there were more record-low temperatures than record-high temperatures in the United States.
At the end of the first week in January, a brutal spell of cold weather settled over most of the country. Multiple cold-temperature records were shattered across the country. Some sites experienced frigid conditions not seen since the 19th century. Chicago and New York City broke temperature records set in 1894 and 1896, respectively. These extremes were not singular, but exemplary of conditions throughout much of the continent. Temperatures in Chicago were so cold that a polar bear at the Lincoln Park Zoo had to be taken inside.
The onset of polar conditions over the United States was also a reminder that cold weather in general is more inimical to human welfare than warm weather. The operation of power grids, gas pipelines and oil refineries was disrupted. Passengers on Amtrak trains were left stranded, and thousands of flights were delayed or canceled. By Jan. 7, the media were reporting at least 21 deaths directly related to the cold.
Weather extremes also seem to bring out the lunatic fringe. Of course, when we’re discussing global warming, it’s difficult to tell where the mainstream stops and the fringe begins. We were subjected to the oxymoronic explanation that frigid weather was, in fact, caused by global warming. According to Time magazine, cold temperatures in the United States were a result of global warming forcing the polar vortex southward. But in 1974, the same Time informed us that descent of the polar vortex into temperate zones was a harbinger of a new Ice Age.
Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jan/16/another-year-of-global-cooling/#ixzz2qfjDI7Pv
Related:
NOAA “state of the climate” report: Contiguous US average temperature plummeted 2.9F in 2013
We were subjected to the oxymoronic explanation that frigid weather was, in fact, caused by global warming
Yes and it came from the White House:
The odds are that what we can expect as a result of global warming is to see more
of this pattern of extreme cold. – – – Dr. John Holdren, The White House – 1/8/2014
super cold stat to the year, more sea ice exteent than normal for over 13 months, impending solar minimum and now an incipient La Nina. Except for the fact that it might flood where I live in a La Nina year life couldn’t be sweeter.
I think we can expect 2014 to be cool as well since we are entering a la nina year.
Every 11,500 years this world we live on has an Ice Age. It has been nearly 12,000 years since the last Ice Age.
All the talk is about a mini ice age coming. The lack of comment on a full blown Ice Age is very conspicuous in its absence.
The latest Polar Vortex dropped temps in exactly the same areas that had a couple of km’s of ice over it 12,000 years ago.
Coincidence – I think not
One of the sad things is, we will never get an apology from any of these people. They will move on to the next scare, the next ‘theory,’ and find some way to blame skeptics for the failure of AGW. Reality is ‘liberal’ in their minds, after all. It will always be about them being right and us being wrong. Oh, and we should be silenced. And demonized. And ridiculed. And….
Cold or freezing weather is not inconsistent with CAGW – just ask Michael Mann he wants to save the polar bear.
Perhaps he should start knitting them warm jumpers!
But, in the comments section after their articles, contrarians will respond, “Fool me once . . .” and that will carry great weight with the Undecideds. At a minimum, it will put Them on the defensive.
Unfortunately the UK has had a mild winter so far. Oh and a bit wet as well. All grist to the BBC’s claims about global warming.
Flooding has again hit the usual areas and record rain has been blamed. The real cause is lack of river maintenance. Wild life is considered before houses and businesses so rivers are crammed with weed which reduces flow causing floods. Meanwhile river sedimentation continues a pace causing more problem flooding.
rogerknights says:
January 18, 2014 at 2:38 am
Unfortunately Roger, the people have been fooled many times before and yet they still fall for the same old tricks time and time again.
Global warming has become the Tampax of science. It can do everything. Warm, cold, bring rain, bring drough, ride horses, play tennis…
70% of the population are followers; demagogues like Gore and Obama know this and exploit it.
The Big Lie, based on Sagan’s awful mistake (he claimed black body surface emission to a planetary atmosphere which no professional scientist or engineer agrees to be true), has been pushed for 25 years now.
It was also pushed by Meteorologists and Climate Alchemists who are taught that a pyrgeometer output, in reality a Radiation Field, is a real energy flux.
So, it is no wonder the sheeple are easy meat for dumb Climate Alchemists and equally dump politicians. Reality will sink in when the World really cools, but the heat in the oceans is still high.
I guess this a Northern hemisphere-centric group. All this talk about the Polar vortex negating the global warming argument, but I see you are silent on the record high temperatures in the Southern hemisphere.
It is interesting that here in the UK we are having the mildest winter that we have had for quite a while. Last winter was pretty ordinary and around five before that have been colder than average. Last year we also had the first decent summer for ages, not too hot but with plenty of dry and sunny weather.
With regard to global averages, it has occurred to me that an absolutely colossal amount of money and resources have now been sunk into the climate change scare. I have a feeling that many of those who are responsible for this know who they are and also know that we know who they are. I think that there must be a real wave of fear washing over these people as they consider the consequences, for themselves, of the whole thing being proved to be bunk. The ridiculous notion that global warming is making it colder can only be sustained for a short time. If it starts to get colder the ‘pause’ is going to have to re-named…what?
January 18, 2014 at 2:25 am
.
We are still in an ice age now. Technically, an ice age is whenever there is permanent ice on the planet. We have been in this current ice age for millions of years. What you refer to as ‘ice ages’ are in fact periods of maximum glaciation.
For the past 3 million years, the glaciation has followed a regular pattern of glaciers advancing and receding. This cycle is repeated about every 100, 000 years and the last glacial maximum on this planet was about 20,000 years ago.
Most of this is confirmed by the Vostock ice-core record, which reveals temperature changes over the past 400,000 years. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vostok-ice-core-petit.png
Notice that past temperatures (blue line) follow a regular pattern swinging from ‘ice age’ conditions to warm interglacial warming periods with a fixed periodicity of about 100,000 years.
Our present interglacial, the Holocene, is in fact running cool. According to the IPCC, previous interglacials were warmer than at present. In particular, the Eemian (about 120,000 years ago) was 2 deg.C warmer than today. So, we could assume that we are still in a warming phase and any future warming ( up to 2 deg) would be ‘natural’.
The other point of interest is the CO2 level (green line). You can see that this goes in ‘lock-step’ with the temperature swings (as Al Gore puts it). A very impressive correlation between CO2 concentration and temperature. However, we now know that temperature changes first, then the CO2 concentration follows temperature.
If we assume that global temps have been flat for, certainly, the last 12yrs, and accept that the Arctic has warmed over that period, it follows that the rest of the planet has cooled on average.
brad griff~ Australia is not the entire southern hemisphere, and the ‘record’ is questionable considering that a number temperature / weather sites are fairly recent to portions of the country. And did you notice that record Antarctic sea ice, well into summer?
While we should take every opportunity to highlight the insignificance if recent trends, it’s also important to be consistent.
It might be correct to state that there has been no warming for the past 17 years based on the lack of statistical significance but you cannot then claim that the mean global temperature “has been slowly falling” for the past 10 years. Neither the 17 year nor 10 year trend is statistically significant.
Once the time is there they don’t get away with an apology. The least is in court at the Hague for crime against humanity. I become fed up with these criminals
Can you imagine what the temps would look like if the government data sets where not “adjusted” by the warmists? Does anyone really believe that the temps in the NASA data sets are not much lower than they publish?
I would love to see a long term data set with raw data and see what the last few years looks like in comparison to the past century. I know that the 1970s were darn cold here in Florida and that this winter reminds one of those days.
Is there a graph of uncontaminated temperatures anyplace I can look?
markstoval says:
January 18, 2014 at 4:53 am
No, not to my knowledge. Perhaps someone else can help. Most has been lost or thrown away. Phil Jones has destroyed some original data because “there was nowhere to store it”, but he has a ‘value added’ temperature record.
From the Met Office records …..
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/climate-monitoring/land-and-atmosphere/surface-station-records/faq
So, in summary, NO,,,,they have lost it, destroyed it or hidden it.
I’m pretty. certain reading somewhere that the CET data, going back to the mid 1700’s, is not “homogenised”. I also think JoNova has access to a samizdat copy of the original Aus B o M temperature records. Hope that helps
Yet they think we have forgotten that they promised us warmer winters as a result of the greenhouse effect. Now they say, oops, we really meant colder winters – until we get warmer winters again and they will say we predicted that all along. };>) Cold winters are not entirely inconsistent with our global crappy warming hypothesis.
AlecM says:
January 18, 2014 at 3:17 am
>The Big Lie, based on Sagan’s awful mistake
>(he claimed black body surface emission to a
>planetary atmosphere which no professional
>scientist or engineer agrees to be true),
>has been pushed for 25 years now
Sorry all for “feeding the troll”, but I can’t let this go un-corrected. I am a professional engineer. I have two text books that explain in detail black (and grey) body radiation through an atmosphere. Not sure what Sagan said, but both texts (one more than 50 years old) explain the impact of “participating media” in radiant energy transfer and how they cause the atmosphere that the radiant energy is passing through to warm up. Metallurgists, chemical engineers, mineral processing engineers, mechanical engineers all are taught this. The engineering is based on well understood physics, which you can also choose to study at a graduate to post graduate level. You are dead wrong Alec. When I talk about why CO2 is NOT a problem, the people I’m talking to invariably ask if I’m one of those nutters who doesn’t believe in the well understood science of radiative energy transfer. So please. Don’t “help”. I’ll leave it at that. If you choose to further detail your ignorance of physics, feel free, but I won’t reply further.
Steve Case says:
January 18, 2014 at 2:22 am
Yes and it came from the White House:
Fortunately the White House is known as a gang of liars. “If you like your warm, you can keep your warm.”
Brad (Griff) says:
January 18, 2014 at 3:28 am
I guess this a Northern hemisphere-centric group. All this talk about the Polar vortex negating the global warming argument, but I see you are silent on the record high temperatures in the Southern hemisphere.
No, but it’s just weather, if you note the circulation patterns the hot air from the interior is being directed over the cities, first in QLD then in the south as this weather pattern passes over us. There were some isolated records here and there on the Australian continent as there are just about every year, heatwaves aren’t uncommon in the Australian Summer. At the same time Melbourne was experiencing 44, we in SE Queensland had only about 28, that’s barely 3 degrees above what we normally see in winter, even averaged over Australia these days are far from record. Back in November it snowed, it was nearly summer!.
Elsewhere in the southern hemisphere nothing is happening and Antarctica is if anything getting colder. So averaged over the southern hemisphere, a few days of hot weather in Melbourne mean nothing. On the other hand in the northern hemisphere where the main land masses are we’ve seen several years of deep cold winters over Europe, and this year north America. This cold anomaly has actually reduced the global average much more than our few hot records have increased it. We aren’t talking about Australia, we’re talking about implications for the global average.
Nor are many here saying that the polar vortex proves global warming doesn’t exist it’s just weather (albeit interesting weather) after all, we do however get a little sarcastic as the warmist bleat about every storm, ever day of hot weather and every flood or drought and yet the cold extremes get somehow overlooked ( the word hypocrite comes to mind). Also in the NH there is now a significant track record of cold winters, which has depressed the global average temperature so the big question now is what’s changed,
Oh, and when the whitehouse pops up to tell us that global warming causes global cooling the BS meter does tend to hit the ceiling.
On CO2, CO2 warms, we all agree, but the key is how much – there is no thermageddon around the corner – and we can prove it.
Brad (Griff) says:
January 18, 2014 at 3:28 am
How soon they forget.
This from climatologist Cliff Harris writing a Northern Idaho newspaper account of the Southern Hemisphere winter of 2013:
Our South American friends were…shivering in their coldest, and in some cases, snowiest July in living memory.
More than two feet of snow buried parts of southern Chile in mid July. The Chilean Army was called upon to rescue people trapped by the blizzard. There were several deaths caused by hypothermia across both Chile and Argentina. Flu cases mounted. Livestock losses were widespread in both sheep and cattle.
On July 16, the Antarctic coldwave produced a hard freeze in normally mild Buenos Aires, Argentina. The mercury at the airport dipped to 23 degrees Fahrenheit (minus-5 degrees Celsius) at 6:30 a.m. The sub-freezing temperatures persisted for several days destroying many tropical plants and trees. The Argentine winter wheat also had crop damage from the frosts.
Elsewhere in Argentina, extremely rare measurable snowfalls were noted this July in the wine country of Mendoza. Temperatures plunged to as low as 22 degrees Fahrenheit. Some damage was likely to the grape vines. Snow totals exceeded six inches in places.
On the morning of July 15, the resort beaches of Mar del Plata, quite similar to the beaches in Florida, saw their first snows in living memory along the northeastern coastline of Argentina.
In all, nearly every province of Argentina saw at least a bit of snow in mid July, an unusual event indeed. The town of Tucuman observed its first measurable snowfall since 1921, two inches.
The strong southern winds brought record cold temperatures by July 17-19 into Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and extreme southern Brazil where the coffee crop was nipped, but not destroyed, by light freezes.
By July 20-21, the frigid Antarctic airmass had done something that few cold fronts ever do, it slipped northward into southeastern Columbia and northwestern Brazil to a point north of the Equator. This has happened less than a dozen times in the past century in South America.
This extremely potent cold front whitened many mountain peaks in the state of Santa Catarina in southeastern Brazil. The town of Urupenia saw its coldest reading ever of 18 degrees Fahrenheit (minus-8 degrees Celsius) on July 18.
Wet snow and sleet were seen in parts of sub-tropical Uruguay on both July 16 and 18. There were many traffic accidents on the slick roadways. Power shortages were reported in both Uruguay and northeastern Argentina during the Antarctic outbreaks. Stores ran out of generators, batteries and winter clothing. Hospitals were packed with patients suffering from upper respiratory illnesses. The airport at Montevideo, Uruguay, reported an all-time record low temperature of 16 degrees Fahrenheit (minus-9 degrees Celsius) on July 17.
Many climatologists blame the new ‘La Nina’ colder sea-surface temperature event in the waters of the east-central Pacific Ocean for the harsh winter of 2013 across South America. It’s my climatological opinion, however, that a colder Antarctic continent is responsible. But, once again, only time will tell.
http://www.cdapress.com/columns/cliff_harris/article_9e9a296f-d417-5a71-9af3-64eec8e2264a.html
M Simon says:
January 18, 2014 at 5:56 am
Fortunately the White House is known as a gang of liars. “If you like your warm, you can keep your warm.”
If only! The ecotards want us to return to a climate that killed half of Europe though, a climate we are a mere 0.7 degrees away from.
Warmists are in a hard place. First they told us to expect warmer winters, now they tell us global warming causes colder winters. If the GLOBE cools for a prolonged period of decade[s] they will surely tell us that global warming causes global cooling. I’m not kidding.
Others have argued that ice-ages start with global warming! So as you can see no matter what happens, their religion must survive the sceptical onslaught.
To see at least some of the adjustments that have been done, they keep them on the websites for NOAA and NASA (GISS). Steven Goddard at Real Science publishes a lot of sarcastic (funny) stuff related to climate and politics. He very often has animations of temperature records before and after adjustments going back to changes they have made over the last 20 or so years. These are bad enough. He also links to the NASA and other websites where he got the data.
“According to Time magazine, cold temperatures in the United States were a result of global warming forcing the polar vortex southward. But in 1974, the same Time informed us that descent of the polar vortex into temperate zones was a harbinger of a new Ice Age.”
Don’t like this argument/talking point. The easy rebuttal is “science advances.” Of course the science itself in this case is suspect, but weak arguments make the arguer look weak.
John Finn says:
January 18, 2014 at 4:24 am
—-
The fact remains that there has been no warming during the last 17 years. The models claim there should have been.
And if that’s the game you want to play then the 0.7C warming over the last 150 years isn’t statistically significant, given the quality and scarcity of climate data in the past. The temperatures taken more than 30 or 40 years ago consisted of two data points, daily highs and daily lows, rounded to the nearest degree centigrade. The idea that we could determine the earth’s temperature from that data to within a tenth of a degree is laughable, and that’s before we consider the fact that only about 10% of the world’s surface area was adequately covered for most of that time. Then we can talk about the maintenance of both the sensors and the areas around them.
Then we can talk about the gaps in the records for many of the stations and how adequately some stations, especially rural ones in areas with especially cold or hot climates were read on a daily basis.
Only for the last 30 years or so can we, with any degree of certainty, state what the average temperature of the planet has been. And for half of that time, there has been no warming at all.
I was just plotting the monthly anomaly of the CET since 2009 and saw the most warming was in April and October. I downloaded the simsolar oratory and to my surprise the Earth is between the Sun and Uranus in October and between the Sun and Saturn in April. Mars is also between the Sun and Saturn this April. I wonder if April in Central England will be warm this year or is it just a coincidence.
Global warming isn’t just in the USA! Look at the global picture this has been a very warm winter all over Europe and Asia. Forget about statistics, the glacier in front of my house in France has receded about a 100 metres in the last 10 years, odd that cooling weather has caused this and every other Glacier to visibly melt and retreat so fast! I was in S. America all of last winter for another unseasonably warm winter, there were a few days of cold weather but overall it was just not cold enough for snow, ski resorts there shut early. Stop blaming erroneous numbers and looking at biased graphs when the evidence is out the window!
ConfusedPhoton says: @ January 18, 2014 at 2:36 am
Cold or freezing weather is not inconsistent with CAGW – just ask Michael Mann he wants to save the polar bear. Perhaps he should start knitting them warm jumpers!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>…
And personally go up to the North Pole to put the jumpers (sweaters) on each Poley Bear. Greenpeace, the WWF and the Sierra Club should also help with the officers leading the way.
Please note I have actually put a sweater on more than one of my goats photo now I am crossing my goats with cashmeres so they can grow their own cashmere sweaters. Much easier.
I am very glad I moved south. Last year was absolutely lovely even if it is a tad bit chilly right now. (27F this morning)
Oratory? I think you mean orrery.
Brad (Griff) says: @ January 18, 2014 at 3:28 am
I guess this a Northern hemisphere-centric group. All this talk about the Polar vortex negating the global warming argument, but I see you are silent on the record high temperatures in the Southern hemisphere.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
It has been mentioned several times.
Loopy jets mean you get temp extremes very cold then very high. The Polar vortex coming south is caused by loopy jets.
Here for an example is a recent comment Brent Walker says: @ January 31, 2013 at 6:56 pm
AlecM says: @ January 18, 2014 at 3:17 am
70% of the population are followers…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
This is why humans can live in cities and cooperate. Leaders are few and far between. Males don’t fight much past the teenage years and are willing to cooperate.
I should like to comment on Urederra’s observation above and ask. Why are so many climate scientists white and uptight?
welovemountains says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:10 am
You were clearly in some alternative South America. In the real onè that exists on this planet, last winter was a cold & snow record breaker.
Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming, Global Warming, Climate Change, Climate Disruption, etc., are all hypotheses, and not Theories, as far as I know, and should not be confused with the poorly named Greenhouse Effect Theory. Calling any of the former a “Theory” lends unjustified credibility.
M Simon says:
January 18, 2014 at 5:56 am
Steve Case says:
January 18, 2014 at 2:22 am
Yes and it came from the White House:
Fortunately
thethis White House is known as a gang of liars. “If you like your warm, you can keep your warm.”________________
fixed
‘I was in S. America all of last winter for another unseasonably warm winter, ‘ ~welovemountains.
So. Please tell me that by ‘last winter’ in the southern hemisphere, you mean you were there this past June, July, August?
markstoval says: @ January 18, 2014 at 4:53 am
Can you imagine what the temps would look like if the government data sets where not “adjusted”….I would love to see a long term data set with raw data…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you consider Frank Lanser’s essay on The Original Temperatures Project and his discover of ” Ocean Air Shelter Stations” that are not influenced by the temperature of the oceans then you can look at the movement of the climatic zones (Köppen climate classification) in the interior of the USA for a glimpse of what the climate has been doing in the last century. Köppen Climate Map
With luck Frank will have that thermometer based temperature set fairly soon. He has started presenting the results on the web site http://www.hidethedecline.eu/
Hope that helps.
welovemountains,
“Forget about statistics, the glacier in front of my house in France has receded about a 100 metres in the last 10 years, odd that cooling weather has caused this and every other Glacier to visibly melt and retreat so fast!”
Why on earth would you consider that a bad thing? Would you really prefer to have that glacier advancing on your house?
welovemountains says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:10 am
Are you near Grenoble? Talk to these guys about glaciers growing in Asia:
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n5/full/ngeo1450.html
Same as these guys found:
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n5/full/ngeo1450.html
Meanwhile, in North America, likewise:
http://www.dailytech.com/Alaskan+Glaciers+Grow+for+First+Time+in+250+years/article13215.htm
And back in Europe, your local glacier may still be shrinking, but they’re growing in Scandinavia:
http://www.su.se/om-oss/press-media-nyheter/pressrum/kebnekaises-sydtopp-gynnas-av-den-kalla-sommaren-1.97178
Moreover, the biggest mass of land ice on the planet, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, continues gaining mass, as NASA satellites have shown at least since the start of this century.
Brad Griff,
Most of the land on this planet is north of the equator. That matters.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hemisferio_Norte.png
The amount of the Sun’s energy that hits 65 degrees North matters.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Inconvenient-Skeptic-Comprehensive-Climate/dp/0984782915/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1390060549&sr=8-1&keywords=inconvenient+skeptic
MikeB says:
January 18, 2014 at 3:39 am
Interglacials vary in length. The previous one, the Eemian, lasted 16,000 years & was hotter in its early warm phase than the Holocene Climatic Optimum, & warmer than our current apparent global temperature at the same 11,400 year mark now in the Holocene, the present interglacial.
welovemountains says: @ January 18, 2014 at 7:10 am
….. I was in S. America all of last winter for another unseasonably warm winter….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
OH?
Gee that is not what the news says of course it is not in English and not reported elsewhere:
1 Sep 13 (2013) – Snowfall in parts of the southern highlands of Peru has killed more than 25,000 animals and destroyed 137 homes, according to the National Institute of Civil Defense (Indeci). link
August 31 2013 – Snowstorms kill 70,000 animals in Bolivia. link
July 23 2013: Record low temperatures hit Chile as fresh snow falls in the Andes link
followed by Chile – One billion dollars damage to fruit crops, October cold worst in 84 years – Emergency declared. link
And it was not just last year.
July 2012 – Freezing temperatures kill 16 in Chile this year link
I could go on but I think you get the message.
Robert in Calgary says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:57 am
Approximate land areas:
NH: 40%
SH: 20% (counting Antarctic ice)
World: 30%
MattS says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:52 am
welovemountains,
“Forget about statistics, the glacier in front of my house in France has receded about a 100 metres in the last 10 years, odd that cooling weather has caused this and every other Glacier to visibly melt and retreat so fast!”
Why on earth would you consider that a bad thing? Would you really prefer to have that glacier advancing on your house?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The warmists never look past there noses. They certainly never bother to look at the past or the big picture.
On glaciers:
Two peer-reviewed papers:
A more recent paper looking at glaciers in Norway.
Glaciers may have retreated in the last couple of decades but the authors of BOTH papers simply state that most glaciers likely didn’t exist 6,000 years ago, but the highest period of the glacial activity, that is glacier growth, has been in the past 600 years. This is hardly surprising with ~9% less solar energy.
Oh and I forgot to add Mont Blanc glacier (France) almost doubled in size in four years as of 2007. It is of course blamed on “Global Warming” Western Europe’s highest mountain, Mont Blanc, is taller than ever due to snow piled atop its summit….
welovemountains,
“Forget about statistics, the glacier in front of my house in France has receded about a 100 metres in the last 10 years, odd that cooling weather has caused this and every other Glacier to visibly melt and retreat so fast!”
I thought glaciers retreating had more to do with the difference between the rate of the glacier melting or subliming than what falls as precipitation on upper parts of said glacier. It seems to me that it can happen if it is cooler as it depends on the transport mechanism of the water. It could be that cooler air holds less water, so less is transported. If it gets cold enough, there will be less melting and less sublimation and the glacier will grow. Is it is odd or just a not well understood?
PaulC says @ January 18, 2014 at 2:25 am;
My impression is that the length of Interglacials varies quite a bit, but it’s still true that we could see the end of the current one, ‘any old time now’.
We may well be able to stop/prevent the onset of what would otherwise gradually become a full-on Ice Age. It appears to require the establishment of perennial snow-cover across large swaths of northern North America and Eurasia. We can intercede in that process, by dusting unwanted snow with something lightweight & black.
Scrawny far-north tree-cover, brush and even the persistent stalks of annuals make dramatic contributions to spring & summer snow-melt. By planting trees, by aerial seeding of soil-building species (legumes & mat/turf-builders) and stalk-producers, and by distributing trace-elements & fertilizers (with the spring carbon-black), we could hold the conversion of warming biological sub-arctic biomes into reflective, cold snow & ice-scapes, “indefinitely”.
I think we should plan on it. Fund the experimental conversion of military tanker-aircraft into soot-generators, and run ongoing trials in selected locales. Send colleges students & robust unemployed folk to northern ‘bio-camps’, where they participate in pilot-studies (er; provide grunt-labor) for various intervention-management concepts to strengthen & stabilize the biota of marginal high-north ecosystems.
Could be great fun, and even profitable.
Brutal Cold Week ahead in both the U.S. AND Russia.
Welovemountains-the climate of this planet looks different outside of every window. What you see from yours may be completely opposite of what I see from mine. This might be a new concept for you, but the climate changes. Drastically. Rapidly sometimes. Always has (even before humans) always will (long after we’re gone).
welovemountains says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:10 am
Germany suffered 5 severe winters in 6 since 2005. Glacier build and retreat slowly and not just because it is cold.
There was a comment above about the 100,000 yr ice cycle. It is no longer 100,000. It changed to 40,000 for the last 2 glacials and the reasons are not known.
The continuing low sunspot activity perhaps suggests we are heading for a mini ice age, like The Maunder Minimum. So it’s everyone’s duty to emit as much CO2 as possible, otherwise there might be ice fairs on the Thames again before long!
MikeB said:
January 18, 2014 at 3:39 am
We are still in an ice age now. Technically, an ice age is whenever there is permanent ice on the planet.
———————-
Wouldn’t permanent ice be on the planet permanently?
🙂
The Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets webpage has been updated this month to include the 2013 annual figure of +0.1 celsius. The falling off a cliff trend of the temperature anomaly, compared to the period 1961-90, since the peak in 2006 continues.
CO2 levels of course continue to go in the opposite direction
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/
markstoval wisely asks:
“Is there a graph of uncontaminated temperatures anyplace I can look?”
Probably not. A global temperature is itself hard to define and easy to manipulate.
A better metric for the overall state of the planet is in my opinion, global land ice/snow coverage. This has a very clear meaning, can be shown on a map, and is difficult to manipulate, at least with any scientifiky sounding excuse.
Such data is available here:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=0&ui_sort=0
That goes back to 1967. I’ll leave this as an exercise for the interested reader: Download to Excel or your tool of choice, pick out the peak Northern Hemisphere values each year and plot.
One will find that since the so-called “pause”, global ice/snow coverage has on average, been increasing and is now, on average, higher than it was during the global cooling scare of the 1970’s. It did indeed decline from the late 80’s to late 90’s, but the current trend is definitely increasing. There is no hint of any long term warming trend.
Brad (Griff) says:
January 18, 2014 at 3:28 am
I guess this a Northern hemisphere-centric group. All this talk about the Polar vortex negating the global warming argument, but I see you are silent on the record high temperatures in the Southern hemisphere.
—————————-
Yes, it had been very warm down there. I see that the ‘heat wave’ has now broken and temps have dropped 30+ degrees F. Those weather forecasts really do a great job. Maybe the global warming, local heat wave will reassert itself later on and give you more ammunition for commenting.
Stephen Richards says:
January 18, 2014 at 10:15 am
No, you have it the wrong way round Steve. It used to be a 41,000 year cycle but for the last 800,000 years the 100, 000 year cycle has dominated.
The 41,000 year cycle was well explained by Milankovitch since this is also the period of changes to the earth’s obliquity. From Wikipedia:
However, the ‘eccentricity’ of the earth’s orbit (i.e. how circular or elliptical it is) does vary on a 100,000 year cycle.
Clay Marley says: @ January 18, 2014 at 12:04 pm
…Such data is available here:
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_area.php?ui_set=0&ui_sort=0
That goes back to 1967. I’ll leave this as an exercise for the interested reader: Download to Excel or your tool of choice, pick out the peak Northern Hemisphere values each year and plot….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You do not even have to do that since it has been already plotted.
October: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201310.gif
November: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201311.gif
December: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201212.gif
January: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201301.gif
February: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201302.gif
March: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/snowcover-nhland/201303.gif
Interesting isn’t it?
It’s been quite warm in the U.S. the past week where there was 454 warm records compared to 4 cold records, a ratio of 113 to 1.
http://s24.postimg.org/t383qo3o5/temps.jpg
Gail Combs says:
You do not even have to do that since it has been already plotted.
Interesting isn’t it?
Thanks for finding that Gail. Nice of them to plot it. You’d think the MSM would be screaming FUD about a coming ice age with that data.
Seems to me that every metric we can look at, like PDO, AMO, ENSO, Sea ice, land snow, sunspots and so on, all point to a probable extended cooling period.
To all who provided data and answers to my question — a great big thank you. 🙂
welovemountains says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:10 am
Global warming isn’t just in the USA! Look at the global picture this has been a very warm winter all over Europe and Asia. Forget about statistics, the glacier in front of my house in France has receded about a 100 metres in the last 10 years, odd that cooling weather has caused this and every other Glacier to visibly melt and retreat so fast! I was in S. America all of last winter for another unseasonably warm winter, there were a few days of cold weather but overall it was just not cold enough for snow, ski resorts there shut early. Stop blaming erroneous numbers and looking at biased graphs when the evidence is out the window!
————————————————————————————————————
Yes but if you look out the window of an ice breaker ship in the Antarctic this SUMMER you’ll see record sea ice extent and more than likely get stuck in it.!!
Clay Marley says: @ January 18, 2014 at 1:25 pm
…Seems to me that every metric we can look at, like PDO, AMO, ENSO, Sea ice, land snow, sunspots and so on, all point to a probable extended cooling period.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
That is my take.
Despite all the people who do not like “Cyclemania” the climate has bounds and it oscillates. With the oceans you are just not going to get instantaneous response to energy increase or decrease so you are going to get an oscillation around a ‘Strange attractor’ until things change enough that you shift to a different ‘Strange attractor’
Strange Attractor being glacials and interglacials and perhaps Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations. If the earth did not have dampened oscillations and bounds we would not be here.
Martin~ it has been below normal here, just over the border in Canada, on the shores of Lake Erie, for quite some time this winter- and that means, teens to low 20s. It looks to stay well below normal for at least the next two weeks. I would suggest that the average for the whole continent is NOT going to be quite what you think it should be.
Ed P says:
January 18, 2014 at 10:37 am
The continuing low sunspot activity perhaps suggests we are heading for a mini ice age, like The Maunder Minimum. So it’s everyone’s duty to emit as much CO2 as possible, otherwise there might be ice fairs on the Thames again before long!
==============
Ah – but the cunning Victorians – CAGW Believers, every man of them – saw to it that this could not happen for a great many years – in London!
The Thames has frozen across at Windsor, in 1963 [I remember that!].
The Victorians built the Victoria and Albert Embankments, reclaiming land in London – now even more expensive per square foot than Sandbanks in Dorset (which was about #4 for global real estate prices, behind London, NY, and parts of Tokyo) – but narrowing the London River, so freezing is mighty unlikely due to its speed between the juxtaposed embankments.
None of that suggests we’re having CAGW. I’d like a bit of that here; London gets to – on average – about 3C in winter [average low]. Another degree would be much appreciated! Every Little Helps, according to the corner shop . . . .
Whatever the cycles, and epicycles, the weather is the weather.
And I’d like it a bit warmer.
Global cooling – notably with successive UK Governments’ criminal dereliction of duty regarding electricity supply – is not wanted here.
Perhaps
Brad (Griff) says:
January 18, 2014 at 3:28 am and
welovemountains says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:10 am
could have my share. Free . . . .
I’m easy [and I, too, love mountains].
Auto
This whole CAGW “thesis” is, as was the forecast of a coming ice age back in the 70’s, little more than the toxic, misanthropic notion of original sin dressed up in scientific drag. Perhaps the idea of Ziggy Stardust dressed as Satan might resonate better with some.
I think they were using “permanent” to mean “multi-year” or “persistent” (i.e., over the summer).
I suspect 90% of them are armored against fear by “denial” mechanisms, and that if we ever did get to a point where their thesis was falsified, 90% (the foot soldiers) could take comfort in the reflection that “they can’t hang all 97% of us. Everyone was guilty–so no one particular person can be singled out for blame–except for a couple of dozen media-warmists. And the worst they’ll get is a verbal knuckle-rapping for a year or two. So, as long as we hang together, we can’t be hanged separately.”
M Seward says:
This whole CAGW “thesis” is, as was the forecast of a coming ice age back in the 70′s, little more than the toxic, misanthropic notion of original sin dressed up in scientific drag.
Yes, it is original sin, or what it turns in to after one kills God. It goes back to Nietzsche in Thus spoke Zarathustra:
“Once the sin against God was the greatest sin; but God died, and these sinners died with him. To sin against the earth is now the most dreadful thing, and to esteem the entrails of the unknowable higher than the meaning of the earth…”
They cannot see the Truth because there is no truth, other than what they create.
Gail Combs says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:41 am
Males don’t fight much past the teenage years and are willing to cooperate.
Unless they have PTSD.
Reblogged this on gottadobetterthanthis and commented:
As a fellow central Oklahoma resident, I’m reblogging Dr. Deming’s article to encourage and support him. Boomer Sooner
MikeB on January 18, 2014 at 3:39 am
January 18, 2014 at 2:25 am
Every 11,500 years this world we live on has an Ice Age. It has been nearly 12,000 years since the last Ice Age.
We are still in an ice age now. Technically, an ice age is whenever there is permanent ice on the planet. We have been in this current ice age for millions of years. What you refer to as ‘ice ages’ are in fact periods of maximum glaciation.For the past 3 million years, the glaciation has followed a regular pattern of glaciers advancing and receding. This cycle is repeated about every 100, 000 years and the last glacial maximum on this planet was about 20,000 years ago.
That’s an improvement on “an ice age every 11, 500 years. But just to be pedantic, interglacials have indeed occurred roughly every 100, 000 yeays for the last million or so years, but for 2 million years before that, interglacials were spaced by about 40, 000 years. This transition is called the mid pleistocene revolution or MPR. The glacial cycle changed from following the obliquity to the eccentricity Milankovich cycle.
This means – its worse than we thought! Not only are we in a glacial period, we are in a slowly deepening glacial period. If it continues the next transition will be to permanent deep glaciation with no interglacial respite.
Martin says:
January 18, 2014 at 1:18 pm
“It’s been quite warm in the U.S. the past week where there was 454 warm records compared to 4 cold records, a ratio of 113 to 1.”
Seems you haven’t learned that it is never a clever argument to base your best reasoning on the state of the current weather. The now famous and scary “polar vortex” is headed south once again. See one of the weather dot com sites for GA and north FL for next Tuesday night. Valdosta, GA will do. Pittsburgh, PA – even better.
Brad (Griff):
Parts of Australia, let alone the rest of the southern hemisphere, are not ALL of the southern hemisphere. Some parts of Australia have had a spell or two of very hot weather…this is pretty normal actually. What you are not being told is that a lot of southern australia has had quite a lot of rather cool weather. Since moving back here I have been living in country Victoria and after 4/5 days of heat we are now a bit on the cool side again. It’s very pleasant today (19th) if a bit windy (normal for this valley). I was wearing a gilet today and felt COLD under a tree! I’ve also noticed that Alice Springs seems to be remarkably cool this summer…at least, when I’ve checked the temps there.
I’ve noticed that the MSM ignore cold spells and only emphasise any warm ones in the southern hemisphere.
While the UK is having a mildish wet winter this year we had some very cold ones recently and last year we had days and days on end of snowy showers where I was living and a very late cold spring. It was freezing walking to the local shop to get the paper. We followed this with a very pleasant sunny warm, but not hot, summer.
milodonharlani says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:52 am
welovemountains says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:10 am
Milodon,
Welovemountains told you to forget about statistics! Don’t confuse her with facts, data, and (shudder) …. statistics.
/sarc
Mac
PS: I’m a frequent visitor into the mountainous back country of the US west…. with about half of my back country time solo hunting and hiking/camping. You could say I ‘love’ mountains…. but I do not let emotional appeal cause me to lose sight of reality. Even fools can survive many warm days and nights in the back country…but sudden icing and snow can be lethal to the ill prepared.
John F. Hultquist says:
January 18, 2014 at 7:49 pm
Martin says:
January 18, 2014 at 1:18 pm
“It’s been quite warm in the U.S. the past week where there was 454 warm records compared to 4 cold records, a ratio of 113 to 1.”
“Seems you haven’t learned that it is never a clever argument to base your best reasoning on the state of the current weather. The now famous and scary “polar vortex” is headed south once again. See one of the weather dot com sites for GA and north FL for next Tuesday night. Valdosta, GA will do. Pittsburgh, PA – even better.”
During the last “polar vortex” there was a post here saying that there was a 6 to 1 ratio of cold records compared to warm records.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/08/usa-cold-weather-records-outnumber-warm-records-6-to-1/
Seems someone else hasn’t learnt that it is never a clever argument to base your best reasoning on the state of the current weather.
Now, compare that 6 to 1 ratio to a 113 to 1 ratio of warm records compared to cold records.
http://s24.postimg.org/t383qo3o5/temps.jpg
113 to 1 versus a measly itsy bitsy ratio of 6 to 1 during the “polar vortex”
Martin~ That is called the ‘January Thaw.’ I grew up with that in the 60s and 70s. And When did that period of rapid warming supposedly begin?
Martin says:
January 18, 2014 at 11:00 pm
Lets see
Suppose we had 113 warm events and 1 cold event in one week —- ooh scary 113:1
In another week we had 6000 cold events and 1000 warm events —- such a measly itsy bitsy ratio of 6 to 1
Then is it cold or hot – lets see
Total cold events 6001
Total Hot events 1113
Ratio Hot:Cold 1:5.39 Cold events outnumber hot by 5.39 to 1 – Now has the last 2 weeks been hot or cold?
Learn some math Martin!
Record high, record low, record floods, ect ect.
Things are not normal, scary in my opinion, to use this as an excuse to blame each other in terms of left v right. The extreme weather hurts a lot of people, would be better to focus on how to
minimize the damage, than the usual trowing dirt.
Brad (Griff) says:
January 18, 2014 at 3:28 am
I guess this a Northern hemisphere-centric group. All this talk about the Polar vortex negating the global warming argument, but I see you are silent on the record high temperatures in the Southern hemisphere.
==========
I beg to differ, while a couple of places might have made a record high..most of it was a normal summer stinker, and four days worth isnt a heatwave like I used to know them 7 to 10 days of 100F+ days and not much cooler at night in Adelaide in the late 60s. similar in rural areas in the late 90s/early2000s.
again most of the fires are lightning induced and able to burn so well n so hot n fast due to UNgrazed parks areas being overgrown woody bushy firetraps. thanks to the greentards banning grazing!
cant be too damn warm overall down here or the Antarctic wouldnt STILL be gaining ice volume in Summer!
tamijo2013:
Your post at January 19, 2014 at 2:13 am says in total
Congratulations! Well done!
Yours is among the best troll posts ever provided on WUWT.
Taking your points in turn.
Assuming climate never changed anywhere then it would be a rare day when no weather record were set somewhere.
The earliest weather recording only began 3 centuries ago and wide-spread weather recording has only existed for decades.
On its first day a new weather station takes its first measurements of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure each which is a total of 8 records. Weather varies with the seasons and there are 365 days in a year so there are 365 x 8 = 2920 new daily records during the first year of that weather station. And there are 8 records for each of the 52 weeks; i.e 416 weekly records. And there are 8 records for each of the 12 months; i.e 96 monthly records. This is a total of 3432 records from that new weather station in its first year.
In the following year there are 3432 chances that a record will be broken at the new weather station, and about half of the records will be broken because few years are identical.
As each year passes the probability of setting a new record decreases. But it still exists. And there are thousands of weather stations all of different ages. So, if climate did not change then it would be a rare year which failed to provide “Record high, record low, record floods, ect ect. (sic).”
But climate does change. It always has and it always will, everywhere. So it is almost certain that each year provides “Record high, record low, record floods, ect ect. (sic).”
Secondly,
Floods are not primarily a function of climate change in urbanised areas because urbanisation affects propensity for flooding.
Thirdly,
There is no definition of “normal” so your claim that “Things are not normal,” cannot be true.
Fourthly,
The world has always been “scary”. You need to come to terms with it.
Most importantly,
Protecting people from extreme weather is essential whether or not climate changes.
People who live in mud huts lose everything in a storm. People suffer little if any storm damage when they live in modern houses and they have modern protection and evacuation systems. Reducing the frequency of extreme weather events – if that were possible – would not do much for the inhabitants of mud huts, but providing them with industrialisation and wealth would.
Finally,
Your attempt to start a fight is a good trolling ploy.
WUWT is infested with a few extreme right-wingers who take every opportunity to promote their politics while reviling the politics of others. Stopping them from disrupting WUWT threads is a problem, and you have invited them to do it in this thread. Your invitation is the best possible method you could have adopted to troll this thread.
So, in conclusion, I again congratulate you on one of the best troll posts ever posted on WUWT.
Richard
tamijo2013 says @ January 19, 2014 at 2:13 am;
To say “extreme weather” seems a lot like saying “climate change”. They both appear to say nothing (baby puppies! filthy dirty! outrageously ridiculous!). By design?
The emptiness of the term “climate change” certainly does appear to be “by design”. Those who espoused “Anthropogenic Global Warming” (AGW) appeared to notice that, a.) the climate was no longer warming and, b.) that the contribution of CO2 in the computer simulations had probably been over-blown. So they created a new name that is without any meaning.
“Extreme weather” looks like very much the same gambit as “climate change”. It allows people claim an abnormality or danger, without the inconvenience of actually having said anything.
Hurricanes, tornadoes, snow, wind, rain, drought, heat, cold … they all happen, and sometimes in severe form. Does that make the weather “extreme”? Compared to what? Last year? A decade or 5 decades ago? It is pretty tough to prove this, or even informally show or illustrate it, convincingly.
It’s perfectly normal to have hurricanes, and tornadoes at certain times of the year, in certain places. Occasionally, but not often, the remnants or surge-tides of a hurricane make their way to New England, or even the Maritime coast of Canada. Does that make Sandy a superstorm, or legitmately “extreme”? No. What we saw with Sandy is a low-frequency but well-known event that happens as a part of normal weather-patterns, now & then. There are worse cases of the same thing, in the weather-records.
I got news for you, Tamijo (but it isn’t really ‘news’). “Records” are always being set … somewhere, with respect to one metric or condition, or another. But it is not unusual or new, to see & have “records” being set. No, not at all: It would indeed be an abnormality, if new records were not being set. Every day, every week, month & year.
We did have a mild warming-spell, during the late 20th C. It stopped, about 17 years ago.
richardscourtney says: @ January 19, 2014 at 7:13 am
Ted Clayton says: @ January 19, 2014 at 7:24 am
It is so much fun to watch the little trolls fresh from Al Gore’s “Climate Reality” training projects come to WUWT ready to do battle with the Climate Den!ers” (how in heck can you deny reality? Unfortunately the warmist lemmings manage it.) and get politely and effectively taken apart with logic.
It really isn’t a fair fight but it is fun.
Not to mention many instrumental weather stations are recently in new locations or new (based at airports) and only cover 2 or 3 decades data. Daily records for them locations will occur regularly with such a sort period and even the odd all time record may likely will have only occurred because the same location didn’t provide data from 50 or 100 years ago.
Ted Clayton says:
January 19, 2014 at 7:24 am
“The emptiness of the term “climate change” certainly does appear to be “by design”. Those who espoused “Anthropogenic Global Warming” (AGW) appeared to notice that, a.) the climate was no longer warming and, b.) that the contribution of CO2 in the computer simulations had probably been over-blown. So they created a new name that is without any meaning.”
I think that you are mistaken that the new name is without any meaning.
I think that the new name means that our rulers intend to tax us anyway, regardless of whether any climate change or catastrophe occurs or does or does not occur.
Im not trolling at all, im not young, and when i was young, natural disasters, was at a diffrent level, than they are now. What im saying is, instead of debates about if its human or natural changes, lets look at the risks, and how to prepare for the next one.
Swizz Re, is not a left wing political party, or some grass roots. They are the worlds leading Reinsurance compagny, most likely only having one major agenda, paying as little insurance money back as possible. and tell me do they think there have been no growth in extreme weather accidents ?
their publication here : http://media.swissre.com/documents/ECA_New_York_Gov_Factsheet.pdf
May be they are just trolling ?
tamijo2013:
Your post at January 20, 2014 at 4:43 am is well below the standard of trolling you provided with your earlier post. Also, your spelling and grammar have declined. Are you sure you have not been replaced?
Anyway, your missive I am answering makes two assertions which are each wrong.
Firstly,
there is no evidence that natural disasters have increased; none, zilch, nada.
There is evidence that costs of natural disasters have increased because people have become more affluent. Rich people have more – and it is worth more – than the property of poorer people. So, the frequency of weather-related disasters has not changed, but the disasters have increased the amount and the value of damaged property.
Munich Re is a re-insurance company. It exists to make profits. Insurance companies can increase their premiums to make more money if there is acceptance of a claim that there is increased threat of future disaster.
But you knew that.
Richar
John says @ January 20, 2014 at 2:43 am;
Hmm. You could have a point there. It might not be so bad, if the money is used to fund pilot-studies for aerial carbon-dusting of nascent perennial continental snowpack … in case of like, The Day After Tomorrow. 😉
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20140121/