This will be a top “sticky” post for awhile since interest is high – new stories will appear below this one – Anthony
UPDATE: Josh channels the boat people
UPDATE2: Another irony is discovered, this one doubly deep. See update 2 below.
UPDATE4: AMSA: Helicopter rescue of Akademik Shokalskiy likely to commence shortly
(It’s off again, then now its on again, with report the helicopter has landed)
UPDATE5: All the passengers (tourists and scientists) are off the ship
UPDATE6: Tough questions need to be asked
UPDATE7: Trouble on the rescue ship – reaching open water not so easy
As we reported previously on WUWT here and here, the saga of the “climate scientists/tourists trapped in ice” continues to fascinate many. Now a second ship has given up on rescue, after the Chinese ship “Snow Dragon” gave up two days ago. The Aurora Australis has abandoned rescue of the trapped Russian “research”vessel in Antarctica and a helicopter evacuation in now being ordered. This episode has taken on a heightened comedic fiasco-like quality.
Now, with such a fantastic failure in full world view, questions are going to start being asked. For example, with advanced tools at their disposal (that Mawson never had) such as near real-time satellite imaging of Antarctic sea ice, GPS navigation, on-board Internet, radar, and satellite communications, one wonders how these folks managed to get themselves stuck at all. Was it simple incompetence of ignoring the signs and data at their disposal combined with “full steam ahead” fever? Even the captain of the Aurora Australis had the good sense to turn back knowing he’d reached the limits of the ship on his rescue attempt. Or, was it some sort of publicity stunt to draw attention? If it was the latter, it has backfired mightily.
One might argue that with photos like the one below, this whole “Spirit of Mawson” research expedition, is little more than a media stunt.
Source: [ http://twitter.com/GdnAntarctica/status/412977161323036672 ]
Even after the ship was trapped, these reporters still had a party like atmosphere going on:
Source: [ http://twitter.com/GdnAntarctica/status/416881634273525761/photo/1 ]
Yesterday, Andrew Revkin tweeted something that I agreed with, especially since so many of the people trapped in the ice on the ship seem to have a nonchalant, almost partly-like atmosphere going on.
Scientist on trapped Antarctic ship: "Fantastic-I love it when the ice wins & we don't." http://t.co/UsxA2tiV2i What about rescue risk/cost?
— Andrew Revkin 🌎 ✍🏼 🪕 ☮️ (@Revkin) December 29, 2013
Yes, the cost and risk is significant. These folks trapped on-board don’t seem to be cognizant of that issue, following the #spiritofmawson Twitter feed, it’s like watching reports (with pictures and video) from a high school class party.
And here’s the kicker. Even the public saw through the charade at the beginning. Trying to get crowd funding from the public for this trip failed miserably as this Indigogo campaign shows:
Source: http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/help-us-return-to-mawson-s-antarctic-hut-the-home-of-the-blizzard
Maybe it had to do with the ridiculous image of Professor Chris Turney in full cold weather gear standing in the midst of a tropical forest.
Right after the ship got stuck and there was a realization that the world was watching, one scientist on-board, Dr. Chris Fogwill, of the University of New South Wales, decided that it would be an opportune time to hit the public for money again:
Source: http://www.spiritofmawson.com/
And again, the public has seen through this, and today, the campaign remains stuck at $1000 with just a few donors. People are realizing that there’s no real science being done on this trip, and that it seems to be little more than a chartered party boat for Antarctic enthusiasts and media.
Now, with the ship to be evacuated via helicopter, will the Akademik Shokalskiy join the list of recent ships that have been sunk in Antarctic waters?
Ships that have sunk in Antarctic waters in recent years (h/t to David Archibald)
The Brazilian yacht “Endless Sea” sank in Maxwell Bay, Ardley Cove on Saturday 7th April, 2012. It was used for “scientific and educational expeditions”.
The sunken remains of the 76-ft Mar Sem Fin, aka “Endless Sea”, which sunk on April 7, 2012, lies at a depth of about 9 meters (30 ft) in Ardley Cove, Antarctica.
In November 2007, the Linblad Explorer hit sea ice and sank.
In April 2013, the Chinese factory fishing ship Kai Xin caught fire and sank near Bransfield Strait at the Antarctic Peninsula.
And there are others, these are just a few recent ones.
With so much concern for the pristine environment of Antarctica, one wonders how much environmental damage these sinkings are doing.
And when the trip is nothing more than a party for your friends and media, disguised as a “scientific expedition”, one wonders if there shouldn’t be some moratorium on such trips.
Richard Tol summed it all up nicely with one sentence:
There has been a strong and statistically significant upward trend in climate-change-related public-relations disasters #spiritofmawson
— Richard Tol (@RichardTol) December 30, 2013
UPDATE:
The #spiritofmawson hashtag is now getting competition from the hashtag #ClitanicDisaster in honor of the trapped climate scientists that the MSM won’t mention as being climate scientists.
========================================================
UPDATE 2:
reader Aphan writes on 2013/12/31 at 7:16 pm
I don’t know if anyone was posted this yet, but the IRONY just gobsmacked me.
The British “explorers” on board the MV Explorer who were “commemorating the Spirit of Shackleton” found themselves repeating HIS adventure when their ship struck a piece of submerged ice and then SANK in the Antarctic in November of 2007! None of the passengers or crew were lost. But HOW AMAZING is it that both the “Spirit of Mawson” trip AND the “Spirit of Shackleton” cruise trips ended in disaster from sea ice?????
http://www.jamescairdsociety.com/shackleton-news-104519.htm
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/news/explorer-sinks-antarctica.html
I mean…come on. What are the odds?
============================================================
Related articles
- Saving the Antarctic scientists, er media, er, activists, er tourists trapped by sea ice (wattsupwiththat.com)
- Antarctic rescue mission fails to reach trapped ship (theguardian.com)
What a joke…
And yet they have the gall to say they’re trapped in the ice because of global warming.
I love the smell of schadenfreude in the morning
One of the most striking features of these activist jollies for me is just how woefully unprepared for the worst they all seem to be. And I mean this to the point of frightening ignorance. The Guardian/BBC journalist Alok Jha for example, describes in graphic detail what happened to his hand when he exposed it to the elements outside “to type an email”. His surprise at how quickly he started to lose the use of his hand is absolutely evident. Has he never heard of frostbite?
But then what should we expect from a bunch of people who are presenting the image of partying it up, tweeting pictures of them setting up a “media hub” whilst at least four crews are desperately working out how to save them?
I wonder how much volume their sewage holding tanks can hold, and whether they’re going to have to start dumping straight into the ocean.
@John Frguson says:December 30, 2013 at 10:09 am: “And yet they have the gall to say they’re trapped in the ice because of global warming.”
Apparently Prof. Turney believes global warming has melted all the ice, boiled the seas, and that’s the ocean bed he’s sitting on.
Expect photoshops turning the white ice brown.
It was on 11th Dec that the Beeb’s resident pessimist, Jonathan Amos, reported:-
“Esa’s Cryosat mission detects continued West Antarctic ice loss”
“The dedicated polar mission finds the region now to be dumping over 150 cubic km of ice into the sea every year. It equates to a 15% increase in West Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level rise.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25328508
How high must the global sea level have been in 1912, when Mawson walked on the ice-free shoreline of Commonwealth Bay?
Once they are home safe and sound, I will mock them ceaselessly. I will also be watching to see who gets stuck with the rescue bill. Better not be the taxpayer.
Not a huge fan of Revkin, but I am glad he is concerned about the cost incurred and who is on the hook for it.
Somewhere far, far to the south where it is summer, a group of global warming scientists are trapped in the Antarctic ice. If you missed the irony of that situation, it is because much of the mainstream media has glossed over that rather inconvenient bit of hilarity. As an example here is an Associated Press story that avoids mentioning the real mission of the scientists aboard the icebound Russian ship:
The Snow Dragon icebreaker came within 7 miles (11 kilometers) of the Russian ship MV Akademik Shokalskiy, which has been stuck since Christmas Eve, but had to retreat after the ice became too thick, said expedition spokesman Alvin Stone.
The Akademik Shokalskiy, which has been on a research expedition to Antarctica, got stuck Tuesday after a blizzard’s whipping winds pushed the sea ice around the ship, freezing it in place. The ship wasn’t in danger of sinking, and there are weeks’ worth of supplies for the 74 scientists, tourists and crew on board, but the vessel cannot move.
So what was the exact mission of these scientists? AP is rather vague about this reporting only:
The scientific team on board the research ship — which left New Zealand on Nov. 28 — had been recreating Australian explorer Douglas Mawson’s century-old voyage to Antarctica when it became trapped. They plan to continue their expedition after they are freed, expedition leader Chris Turney said.
Um, there is a bit more to the expedition than merely following in the footsteps of a century-old voyage. But what that mission really is, AP won’t say. If AP is vague about the mission’s purpose, Reuters provides even less information.
Since the MSM isn’t forthcoming as to the real purpose of those scientists traveling to Antarctica, we turn to Whats Up With That for more insight:
Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/pj-gladnick/2013/12/28/msm-glosses-over-irony-global-warming-scientists-trapped-antarctic-ice#ixzz2oz4kVEjf
Will this fiasco induce the BBC and the Guardian think twice, before continuing to push the CAGW theology so enthusiastically? I think not: but how many more PR disasters can the religion take?
Difficult to read the Grauniad article with a totally straight face, but it includes some interesting analysis of why the ice is so bad.
And credit where credit is due, the expedition has collected some relevant data towards its aim of evaluating how conditions in the area have changed since 1911, even if they can’t bring themselves to admit that their observations don’t fit the AGW model they expected to prove.
But there is one “no change” box they probably can tick: I don’t suppose Mawson’s expedition had bananas or peanuts either…
How long till they run out of diesel, and have to start burning their personal electronic devices for fuel?
At least they’d be quieter…
“Oh boy, this is GREAT!”
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=flounder+boy+this+is+great&sm=3
It is all so exciting being on a ship caught in the ice of Antarctica(!!), even if it is by the ice that isn’t supposed to be there! I’ll always remember it! My bit for Global Warming! Reality is very bracing, what?
When a group of true believers gathers together their beliefs are generally reinforced by the consensus group think and become more extreme. As the days pass on this Antarctic ship of fools the cognitive dissonance between their delusions and reality must be increasing rapidly. It will be interesting to see if the herd instinct is able to preserve their faith or will some of them more or less flip out and literally go bonkers. See eg http://www.theguardian.com/science/antarctica-live/video/2013/dec/30/antarctica-live-video-diary-trapped-ice-missing-milkshake-video
“I wonder how much volume their sewage holding tanks can hold, and whether they’re going to have to start dumping straight into the ocean”.
They would get frostbitten a***s to add to there woes!
Thank you!
Thank you,
Sam-I-am
Hope local penguins keep their green eggs and ham.
I dunno, I suppose Google or the NSA might know, we might have to do something about rescuing them…when they start trying to look up the nutritional content of ‘Alok Jha’.
Question:
What do you call a ship load of trapped Global Cooling Deniers who are in danger of freezing to death?
Answer:
A good start!
While the ship’s brochure points out that “Views are excellent from the large, open decks and the Navigation Bridge’” maybe they couldn’t see the ice coming from the vantage point of the “Lounge and bar, open late afternoon and evening with a wide selection of wines and spirits” (an essential feature of all scientific research vessels).
This is just the start of the Southern Hemisphere doom…
http://climatesanity.wordpress.com/2013/12/26/time-to-recognize-approaching-southern-hemisphere-disaster/
Let’s hope they all get out safely, otherwise we won’t be able to continue splitting our sides over their idiotic antics.
Coming on BBC, or perhaps the NatGeo Channel – ‘Looking for the Antarctic Riviera’.
On the BBC radio news this afternoon, apparently they are sending helicopters to pick up the crew and passengers, the inference being that the ice is starting to crush the hull.
One question I would like an answer to is how did the icebreaker that went to rescue them only get to seven miles from them? Presumably they would have plotted the shortest ice-free route, there must be at least 49 square miles of ice several yards thick!! This would imply that the temperature must have dropped substantially to create this amount of ice. This temperature drop has not been mentioned in any of the reports I have read/heard.
It’s interesting to note that its the peak of summer down there and the ice is increasing not receeding. Maybe they should start studying Gobal Cooling!
@Geoff Chambers – true, but doubly true if things turn worse and some helo crew dies trying to get them out.
Advice to expedition leader Chris Turkey: whatever you do, don’t go for an outdoor pee
[snip – this Youtube video is pointless -mod]
When interviewed a few days ago Turney said they had two weeks of food before they had to go to rations.
If I was a penguin I’d move away. After a few weeks grilled penguin will start looking nice even to a greenie.
Thanks for that Dr Norman Page and …
Guardian video producer Laurence Topham posts a short diary account of how he and his colleague Alok Jha are passing the time on board the Akademik Shokalskiy, which is trapped in heavy sea ice off the coast of Antarctica awaiting rescue by the Autralian icebreaker Aurora Australis
Reminiscent of Sgt. Pinback’s video logs on Dark Star!
I do not like the men on this spaceship. They are uncouth and fail to appreciate my better qualities. I have something of value to contribute to this mission if they would only recognize it. Today over lunch I tried to improve morale and build a sense of camaraderie among the men by holding a humorous, round-robin discussion of the early days of the mission. My overtures were brutally rejected. These men do not want a happy ship. They are deeply sick and try to compensate by making me feel miserable. Last week was my birthday. Nobody even said “happy birthday” to me. Someday this tape will be played and then they’ll feel sorry.
“It’s fantastic – I love it when the ice wins and we don’t,” said expedition marine ecologist Tracy Rogers. “It reminds you that as humans, we don’t control everything and that the natural world – it’s the winner here. We’ve got several penguins watching us, thinking ‘what the hell are you doing stuck in our ice?’. The sky is a beautiful grey – it looks like it wants to have a bit of a snow. It’s the perfect Christmas, really.”
I love it when nature wins too. But, unfortunately, she still has a way to go to beat these jokers arrogance.
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25519059
Assuming temperature symmetry between the hemispheres, I’m wondering what implications this might have on Arctic ice growth this coming summer.
Are we seeing ice expansion in the Antarctic in December?? Wouldn’t that be unprecedented?
Geoff -if anything happens to them I’ll start a one-man shaming campaign against UEA who are after all morally responsible for much of the alarmism
Too bad the ‘Mighty Mac, is no longer in service. Built in 1944, the Coast Guard Cutter Mackinaw broke ice across the Great Lakes until its retirement in 2006, and a formidable but friendly beast it was. At 290 feet long it had a substantial girth of 74 feet with which to clear lanes through the ice on Lake Superior, Michigan, and others, so the massive ore ships could get through. It used no less than six 10 cylinder Fairbanks Morse Diesel engines. These 2 cycle Diesel engines used 2 opposed pistons in each cylinder, each operating a crankshaft throw at both the top and bottom of each engine; the two crankshafts geared together. Each pair of engines was in its own watertight compartment, and each pair produced 3,500 hp: total power; 10,500. The engines turned generators and the three propellers (two stern, one bow) were driven by electric motors. Among the icebreakers on the Lakes the most capable ones had bow propellers and the Mighty Mac had one. The bow propeller could be used, in reverse to make a pressure wave to break up forward ice, or, to assist the ship in its forward motion. With a top, open water speed of a respectable 18.7 knots it’s even possible the Mighty Mac could get through the St. Lawrence Seaway and down to Antarctica in time to rescue these foolish, hubris infected, irresponsible people. A testimony to its capabilities was its continuous 62 years of wintertime service on the Great Lakes, one of which was considered threatening enough to inspire Gordon Lightfood’s lyrics; “Superior it’s said, never gives up her dead.”
I wonder if that picture of the folks holding the flag with “theguardian” printed over a map of Antarctica explains this…
http://climatesanity.wordpress.com/2013/12/29/the-guardian-removes-my-simple-comment/
Michael Ronayne says:
December 30, 2013 at 10:47 am
Question:
What do you call a ship load of trapped Global Cooling Deniers who are in danger of freezing to death?
Answer:
A good start!
_______________________________
Q: What do you need if you find a shipload of Climate Numpties, stuck in the ice?
A: More ice.
The Antarctic does not suffer fools easily. The conditions there can change so quickly and are never less than deadly. These happy idiots are a liability and have achieved a very high nuisance value. Some other poor coot will have to put his life at risk to get them out of their ill-conceived, ill-planned and ill-informed predicament. At least they have plenty of ice for the drinks, while the bar has supplies.
Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
The climate change movement is falling apart and ending in farce, as this “scientific expedition” shows. BTW, click through for photos of ships sunk in the Antarctic in recent years. Maybe we should worry about the ecological damage incompetent visitors are doing.
Good post…I was going to write up something in those lines but this says it all. This is Spring Break by some who never grew up. They think they’re so cool and hip, when actually they’ve made a mockery of the scientific industry. They took a 50 million dollar vessel and are now on the verge of trashing it like out-of-control brats at a Project X party.
“The @GdnAntarctica winter men’s clothing catalogue has just arrived …”
But it’s summer down there!
This must have been the best entertainment that Penguins and Seals have seen in a long time.
Too foggy today for the one helicopter from the Xue Lang – which cannot land on the deck of the Aurora Australis. They may have to wait another day or two. The cost of the rescue is expected to be in the “multi-millions” by SMH. Looks like a skeleton crew of 17 will be left on board after the tourists/pilgrims are taken off.
“When the rescue does take place, Shokolskiy passengers would likely be taken by the Xue Long’s helicopter to the Chinese icebreaker. The Aurora’s barge would then move passengers from the Xue Long to the Australian icebreaker”. — SMH.
http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-incidents/akademik-shokolskiy-rescue-delayed-by-bad-weather-20131231-303i3.html#ixzz2ozG3fT2H
Had a quick glance at SkS to see how they were dealing with it. Wonderful – a cartoon of a ship sailing towards an iceberg, followed by all is well, no problem, the iceberg has melted! How not apposite! Congratulations, SkS on your impeccable timing! Yes I know it was meant to be the Arctic Ocean – you know, the one that became completely ice-free this year, but even so …
Mark Steyn is sitting in for brother Rush today, and he was concerned they might be stuck in the ice for years, especially if our efforts at preventing global warming begin to take effect. What would they do for food? Who would be the first on the menu? The tourists, the Gruniad reporters, or the climate scientists?
The R.S. Donner Passkiya.
The Chinese icebreaker is stuck. What are the Chinese doing with an icebreaker? Maybe the Russians will send an icebreaker to free the Australian icebreaker that is on the way to free the Chinese icebreaker that was on the way to free the Russian vessel.
Penguins to warmists:
“Wait a minute. You mean you didn’t bring ‘The Desolation of Smaug’? Then what the hell use are you?”
In his Indiegogo video, Turney says (at about 5:35) that Commonwealth Bay has been badly clogged with sea ice limiting access for the last 3 years. Funny, that is about where they are stuck, off Commonwealth Bay.
They know but they do not understand, their eyes are plastered over so they cannot see, and their minds closed so they cannot understand. They bow down to a block of wood.
From the previous article comments:
Steve McIntyre says:
December 30, 2013 at 9:47 am
Together with Joelle Gergis, Turney was also co-leader of the AUS contribution to the PAGES2K climate reconstruction. Turney was one of the coauthors of Gergis et al, discussed last year at Climate Audit.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/29/saving-the-antarctic-scientists-er-media-er-activists-er-tourists-trapped-by-sea-ice/#comment-1517734
You have to read the Spirit of Mawson blog to understand what a bunch of clowns these guys really are.
I liked the reference to collecting a large number of seal blubber samples – how do you do that without killing the seals? These guys are supposed to be greenies, they can’t kill seals.
Anthony
How about WUWT offering a donation towards their rescue?
tonyb
Why is it such a surprise the people who routinely ignore real world observation are stuck in a real world observation. I’m sure their models said the ice wasn’t there
Global Warming Scientists Still Trapped In Record-Level Antarctic Ice http://bit.ly/1bxvuQl
The penguins in the first photo appear to be photoshopped in. I am not sure there would be a bunch of penguins right at the location at which the ship is stuck, unless they were just having a good laugh. (I will look at later pictures for a sad polar bear, just in case the biologists aboard are as competent as the “climate scientists.”)
Rather arrogant for these folks to compare themselves to Douglas Mawson, IMO. Mawson was apparently a rugged guy, but he lost two crew members and nearly died himself. I guess if no one dies in this fiasco, it proves “global warming”. “Global Warming is real and dangerous.” Okay, scratch “dangerous”. “Global Warming is real and a lifesaver!” How’s thar?
This whole laughable affair creates the perfect visual image for the whole AGW movement. A bread crumb trail of icebreakers that can be followed right to the AGW research ship that was looking for evidence of global warming ice loss…
One picture is worth a thousand words.
Has anyone used the joke that they must have been predicting the weather and ice conditions using models rather than real world data? Or that Michael Mann was their forecaster?
On board is a “climate scientist” named – wait for this – Grant Hose!
Really!
From Izvestiya (my translation)
Hope still remains for saving (salvaging) of the Russian ship. American icebreaker “Polar Star” is sailing from Seattle to the Ross Sea, it will be able to reach the “Akademik Shokalski” in about 8-9 days.
( ? ! )
Richard Tol @RichardTol
There has been a strong and statistically significant upward trend in climate-change-related public-relations disasters #spiritofmawson+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Experienced, licensed sailors/captains should not partake in these stunts….I hope all turns out ok but I won’t be surprised if there are injuries and loss of life in the rescue.
There is a wonderful book by Ian McEwan that captures this type of “humorous misadventure” of scientists/activists trying to save the world. It’s called “Solar” and it’s loaded with laugh-out-loud scenes reminiscent of this true life story.
Hopefully they’ll be able to get the passengers of Akademik Shokalskiy to safety.
It’s going to be easy predicting the crisis cruise of 2014. Sea-level rise in the Maldives. What could go wrong on a tropical island?
‘Scientist on trapped Antarctic ship: “Fantastic-I love it when the ice wins & we don’t.” ‘
This says it all. This solitary quote nicely summarizes everything that’s wrong with Al Gore and his global warming crowd. Does it get any more clear that these cretins hate mankind and all of mankind’s heroic accomplishments? They are not worthy of the technology that will rescue them, the heroic men who invented it, or the brave men who will use it to save their lives. They are pathetic fools.
climatereason says: December 30, 2013 at 11:24 am
Anthony, How about WUWT offering a donation towards their rescue?
tonyb
+++++++++++++++++++
Why? Australian search/rescue will take care of it….ground zero until the recent election for climate delusion…..
The farce continues . . . but will Bloody Mess or the Womann named Sue get it? Methinks not.
Wonderful timing, I’m about 75% through reading The Last Place on Earth which compares the race to the South Pole by Amundsen, a savvy polar-experienced Norwegian, with the bungling Scott. A must read book and sooo entertaining to have this happening at the same time.
One message that this little crew has sent loudly and clearly is that they are remarkably confused about the value of things, including their own lives and the lives of those attempting to rescue them.
@tonyb – oh please! Let AL-GORE pay for their rescue of their farce of a stunt, I’m getting stuck with their bills already through increases of our incredibly expensive hydro bills. And the wankers/suppliers of our hydro here in Ontario, Can.. are still strongly shilling for more useless turbines and solar power as well as a plan to increase our costs an additional 45% in the next few years!! Do you not understand that our hydro = mtg/rent costs per month already?? It’s going to be -26C here at nights this week… and you want us to give them more of our money?? Pfft!
If more modern communication systems break down, they can always resort to writing an SOS message in the snow in letters of gold.
Does it get any more clear that these cretins hate mankind and all of mankind’s heroic accomplishments?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Perhaps in a next life I will be reincarnated not as a killer virus but a harsh sea and ice in the southern ocean that traps and kills global warming propagandists…….
vukcevic suggests: “… don’t go for an outdoor pee.”
Indeed, at those temperatures more shortcomings than just in the field of climatology would be revealed…
This one is still my all time favourite crusading activist gong show…..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8034027.stm
And the band “continued to play as the crew loaded the lifeboats.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musicians_of_the_RMS_Titanic
Seems there was a “party” attitude of the ‘upper class’ onboard the Titanic as well.
The background:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-25/15-million-australian-expedition-to-antarctica/5116158
MinB Scott was hardly a bungler.
This Guardian article hints the ship might not get out, for years: “… caught in the formation of a new area of fast ice, which could stay in place for several years.”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/30/antarctic-rescue-mission-fails
In the same position, I would wait until the losing was over before saying that.
This could end poorly. The ship is being squeezed by the ice, and looks to be beginning to list to port (extra starboard side pressure would push it up and caise the post list.) Ice reinforced vessel usually means the bow area against ice flows while under way, not the flanks against a situation like this. Much will now depend on wind and sub ice sea current conditions. Neither condition sounds very good, if two breakers have had to turn back due to ice thickness, wind, and visibility problems as has been reported.
See the Shark – Jump -Wheee!
“Antarctic ship passengers to be evacuated by Chinese helicopter”
The MV Xue Long has only one Ka-32 type helicopter. Rescuing the people will not be easy as it will depend on: weather; skill of the pilot; aircraft performance & condition; and landing zone condition (assuming they can land). The rescue might take some time!
I imagine these “researchers” are waiting passively for rescue while bellied up to the buffet or bar when not tweeting or face booking. Personally I always enjoyed a more active life like rugby and sailing off shore as well as the natural sciences unlike those boys and girls from the guardian http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-PpU8MUbHE
This whole fiasco reminds me a little of 1996 Everest fiasco described in “Into Thin Air”.
CNN is actually moderating (censoring) comments in the articles they have posted:
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/30/world/antarctic-ship-stuck/
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/29/world/antarctica-ship-stuck/
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/28/world/antarctica-ship-stuck/
If you point out the underlining AGW aspects, its will get taken down.
I just don’t get their problem. Didn’t Prince Harry get to the south pole this year and it was like a cake walk, right? Hmmmm… no maybe the Prince had some problems too…. but, but, but it IS summer down there… I just don’t understand…this is a warming planet, right?
@Jerry – what is says is that this individual has grown up within and assumed the supremacy of the modern industrial state that, even as he attempts to prove the need for its demolition, he cannot picture the situation wherein the ice ‘winning’ means his death.
I tried to find the webcam image from the Aurora Australis in the ice, but all I found was a day-old image showing open sea. Have I missed something, or is this just another inconvenient photo that we will never see? http://www.antarctica.gov.au/webcams/aurora
The tone of these articles makes it seem like you’re rooting for these people to drown. They’re in real danger, I hope they get rescued. After they’re safe, I’ll join in making fun of them.
rubberduck says: December 30, 2013 at 12:10 pm
I tried to find the webcam image from the Aurora Australis in the ice……
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Aurora was a potential and now failed rescuer inbound to ice trapped vessel…
Mark says: December 30, 2013 at 12:13 pm
The tone of these articles makes it seem like you’re rooting for these people to drown. They’re in real danger, I hope they get rescued. After they’re safe, I’ll join in making fun of them.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
What a joke. Example? Show me.
Tom J says:
December 30, 2013 at 11:03 am
The Coast Guard Cutter Mackinac sits pier side in sight of the Mackinac Bridge in Mackinaw City, Michigan.
131 South Huron Avenue
Mackinaw City, MI 49701
themackinaw.org
Ode to the lost souls of good ship “Shokalski”
Asleep under heavy dream
profuse with horrific visions
hardly of a choice accessible.
With a fleeting contemplation
of this nightmare they’re freed,
but alas deceived of any hope
in an even darker realm they sunk .
Mark says:
December 30, 2013 at 12:13 pm
The tone of these articles makes it seem like you’re rooting for these people to drown. They’re in real danger, I hope they get rescued. After they’re safe, I’ll join in making fun of them.
____________________________
Maybe a bit, but there has been much said in these threads regarding the safety of the passengers and crew. This has gone on for days and the people aboard the unfortunate Akademik Shokalskiy keep making absurd statements.
A little mirth and merriment is to be expected in response.
Mark – “They’re in real danger”
They are in real danger and they themselves are oblivious to it. They clearly didn’t understand the risks when they set off, nor do they now. Even worse they do not understand the dangerous situation they have put the rescuers in!
While never wishing personal harm on any of them I wonder if this experience will render their accusing pointing fingers less useful.
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/12/30/stuck-in-our-own-experiment-leader-trapped-team-insists-polar-ice-is-melting/
Expedition leader blames climate change for trapping his ship in the remains of iceberg B-15, which apparently is now no more than 10 feet thick. At what point does an iceberg become sea ice?
http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=68999
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceberg_B-15
A little mirth and merriment is to be expected in response.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Exactly. These morons deserve our most vigorous ridicule AND best efforts at rescue.
Rob Dawg says: December 30, 2013 at 12:31 pm
While never wishing personal harm
_________________________________-
Sorry you’ve been bullied/shamed into thinking criticism of stupidity equals wishing others harm.
Cute? Innocent? They only eat fish? Only when fish is all they have…
When the radio aerials have iced over and no one can hear the screams, then….
…then the penguins will come for them!
They will find a way in. They always do…
As I made mention over on JoNova’s:
I wonder if there is a Mrs Chippy on board this ship? I hope she doesn’t suffer the fate of her predecessor. But then, Turney would need a James Caird to get him off the ice.
Dobes says:
December 30, 2013 at 11:28 am
Why is it such a surprise the people who routinely ignore real world observation are stuck in a real world observation. I’m sure their models said the ice wasn’t there
________________
The models are accurate. Are you implying the ice really exists?
I am concerned about the apparent disconnect between beliefs and reality described above: –
“The Guardian/BBC journalist Alok Jha for example, describes in graphic detail what happened to his hand when he exposed it to the elements outside “to type an email”. His surprise at how quickly he started to lose the use of his hand is absolutely evident. ”
Katabasis – many thanks.
We have – to too great an extent – become urbanites, not really exposed to the weather, even. Changes in climate – the real, outside the port-holes climate, rather than that in the cyber space of the computer models – take time.
Some are cyclic – like daily and annual changes in weather; you now, ice melting in summer.
Like others note, there is a real risk that rescuers’ lives may be put at risk. I imagine flying helicopters in Antarctic snowstorms doesn’t please your life insurer.
Ah, but still – per the BBC: –
“Despite being trapped, the scientists have continued their experiments, measuring temperature and salinity through cracks in the surrounding ice.”
No word on the BBC/guardian types. Perhaps they’re seeing if taking your hand out of your Plar glove cools it quicker in a thirty-knot wind.
I just hope that all ends well – not least for the rescuers.
Auto
Clay Marley says:
December 30, 2013 at 11:19 am
In his Indiegogo video, Turney says (at about 5:35) that Commonwealth Bay has been badly clogged with sea ice limiting access for the last 3 years. Funny, that is about where they are stuck, off Commonwealth Bay.
They know but they do not understand, their eyes are plastered over so they cannot see, and their minds closed so they cannot understand. They bow down to a block of wood.
———————
Or they knew exactly what they were doing and this is all a big PR stunt – why else would BBC and Guardian journalists be on a scientific research vessel.
When the radio aerials have iced over and no one can hear the screams, then….
+++++++++++++++++++++
In space no one can hear you scream. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alien_(film)
They steered their ship by computer models, not real data.
Plar = Polar.
guardian – Grauniad (although with spell-checkers they’re better now than in the 70s and 80s)
Auto – righting [my] wrongs!
Mark,
No worries. We have it first hand that it’s all “Good Fun”.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25547703
So we’re not laughing at them, we’re laughing with them.
It is obvious they used computer models to figure out what conditions where and then plotted their courses based on those modeled outcomes. They clearly couldn’t be bothered to check real time conditions or actually look out a window or perhaps pull up satellite data. That might have contradicted the computer models and we all know that climate scientists can only rely on computer models and not real verifiable conditions.
“Fantastic-I love it when the ice wins & we don’t.” Revkin will be looking forward to the next ice age then.
So, the Grauniard people are all Snowden, I mean icedin? Wot a shame.
By the way of WUWT straw poll, why are there no Polar bears at the South Pole?
The fact there are no bipolar bears makes me depressed.
Wonder if the insurance policy on the ship covers such nonsense; hull loss due to grand-standing on behalf of fare-paying customers. Come to think of it, this is kind of in the same category as the Italian captain who piloted the Costa Concordia cruise ship into an area he had no business being …
I wonder how long they will laugh when they realise how difficult the rescue will be.
I am sure the rescuers are not having a ball!
“GlynnMhor says:December 30, 2013 at 10:16 am
I wonder how much volume their sewage holding tanks can hold…”
This is a major concern since the organisers and Guardianistas are so full of that stuff already.
Oscar Bajner says:
December 30, 2013 at 12:57 pm
“By the way of WUWT straw poll, why are there no Polar bears at the South Pole?
The fact there are no bipolar bears makes me depressed.
___________________________
a) Polar bears don’t like the taste of Penguins
b) Sea Leopards do like the taste of Polar Bears
Fox News now quotes Turney as saying that “we’re stuck in our own excre. . .” Oops, pardon me! He said, “we’re stuck in our own experiment.” When and where was this experiment defined? Is the protocol posted somewhere? Who told the star-crossed voyagers that they were going to be the subjects in an experiment? Was there informed consent? I see a serious ethical boundary violation here.
Eaten by a voracious species of penguins who died out when they finished off all the south polar bears?
/intended funny
What’s not so funny – these media darlings put countless ships and sailors at risk for their personal narcissism alone. That is not funny. Tens of thousands of dollars squandered, thousands of man hours, wear and tear on ships and men – that isn’t funny.
Alan Robertson says:
December 30, 2013 at 11:09 am
Michael Ronayne says:
December 30, 2013 at 10:47 am
Question:
What do you call a ship load of trapped Global Cooling Deniers who are in danger of freezing to death?
Answer:
A good start!
_______________________________
Q: What do you need if you find a shipload of Climate Numpties, stuck in the ice?
A: More ice.
And some bourbon.
🙂
Auto says:
December 30, 2013 at 12:45 pm
I am concerned about the apparent disconnect between beliefs and reality described above: –
_________________
A wise man in the Arctic once said (an I assume this can be applied as well to the Antarctic), “You loose engine heat…now you have a problem”.
People are realizing that there’s no real science being done on this trip… ?
I dunno. Seems like they are finding out (or confirming) just how stupid nominally intelligent humans can be.
Seriously, by all accounts, isn’t the Antarctic gaining ice?
Why go there to show a loss of ice?
Just wondering.
Like others note, there is a real risk that rescuers’ lives may be put at risk. I imagine flying helicopters in Antarctic snowstorms doesn’t please your life insurer.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Typical rescues in the southern ocean involve small private sailing vessels or same in round the world yacht races. Misfortunate due to seas/weather aside, these sailing craft are usually skippered by experienced amateur/professionals skippers.
Here we have a bunch of global warming enthusiasts on new years holiday in the Antarctic. Next year mommy and daddy should be firm/resolute and put there foot down for English Harbor.
Being so close to the south pole, I hope they don’t get Polaroids from sitting about on all that ice!
Mike McMillan says: @ December 30, 2013 at 11:17 am
…
The Chinese icebreaker is stuck. What are the Chinese doing with an icebreaker? Maybe the Russians will send an icebreaker to free the Australian icebreaker that is on the way to free the Chinese icebreaker that was on the way to free the Russian vessel.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
No it is the US ship Polar Star sent to free the Australian icebreaker sent to free the Snow Dragon sent to free SS CAGW.
Now all we need is Elmer to sing it to the tune of ‘The Old Lady Who Swallowed the Fly’ but we can settle for If We Had Some Global Warming until he gets it recorded and up on M4GW
Where can I sign the petition to DEMAND that the Polar Ice frees the Antarctic 72.
Thank you WUWT contributors for giving me so much laughter. It is amazing how much comedic talent there is out there in blogland. The one with the comments by the Chinese crew had me in tears.
But when this little escapade into the melting ice of the great South land, rapidly turning into a real life drama, is all over and the public start asking some questions like “why is there so much ice down there?” what is the CAGW party line going to be? My latest betting market is:
Global warming is causing record sea ice because:
6-4 Melting fresh water from the Antarctic continent is freezing quicker than salt water.
5-2 Increased snowfalls with melting fresh water run off which has the same effect.
3-1 A change in global wind patterns is pushing the ice around.
7-2 A change in global cold water currents have all concentrated in Antarctica?
9-2 The Ozone Hole is getting bigger.
9-2 The Ozone Hole is getting smaller.
9-2 Increased ocean acidity.
9-2 Decreased ocean acidity.
5-1 Any combination of three of the above.
8-1 Any combination of two of the above.
10-1 You name it.
Yet another reason to be a believer, free cruises
Nobody wants these people to perish.
However, it would be just to have them endure some financial pain by being made personally liable for covering a part of the huge cost of their rescue.
The balance should come from the deep pockets of the groups that organized this fiasco.
It would be unjust to have the cost born by people who need to buy insurance for legitimate activities.
In 100 years, they’ll have another cruise to Commonwealth Bay to celebrate to “The Disastrous Turney Expedition of 2013-14”.
Compare the current 3 metre (10 foot thick ice) to a high quality video clip of the Mawson expedition landing in Commonwealth Bay on January 7, 1912.
http://aso.gov.au/titles/documentaries/antarctic-pioneers/clip2/
This brings up a question: Will they be charged for the cost of this rescue?
Fuel, extra manpower costs, food, including a daily ‘overhead rate’ to cover the costs a rescue ship at sea incurs (maintenance escrow fund, insurance on the hull, utilities like sat comms etc)
First we have climate scientists on a scient…er PR cruise stuck in ice.
Now we have an arsonist setting himself on fire!
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/trending-now/arsonist-lights-self-on-fire-trying-to-burn-down-store-192237490.html
The gods of irony have started partying early this year.
David Ball says:
December 30, 2013 at 10:24 am
——————————————-
Too late. The Australian Taxpayer is already footing the bill for both the original expedition and all three rescue attempts.
Prince Harry (one of the family despised by the Left) walked all the way to the Pole. These guys couldnt even raise the idea of walking 6 miles to the other icebreaker. So they just spent the good weather taking photos and waiting for the helicopter to take them where?? Another icebreaker?
Nobody can find the “missing” heat from the climate but this group has found the “disappearing” Antarctic ice.
This fiasco reminds me of a South Park episode (32nd – “Rainforest Schmainforest”), where a choir goes on an environmentalist tour in the Costa Rican rainforest. The objectives of the tour are, of course, to encourage awareness of nature’s frailty and to discourage its destruction by evil human interests. But the tour turns into a fiasco when the group leader gets eaten by a coral snake, the group gets lost, runs into guerilla rebels and then gets captured by hostile natives only to be rescued by construction workers who had been tearing down trees.
Mark says:
December 30, 2013 at 12:13 pm
The tone of these articles makes it seem like you’re rooting for these people to drown. They’re in real danger, I hope they get rescued. After they’re safe, I’ll join in making fun of them.
————
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25547703
Seems like now is the perfect opportunity for a teachable moment.
No main stream media has reported how Antarctic sea ice levels are at historicly high levels.
The average PBS NYT reader doesnt have a clue whats happening with sea ice.
Perhaps some respected skeptics could do press releases.
Instead of twittering the whole day, they should spare the time and read “The Home of the Blizzard”
Quite an interesting book…understanding it might help them…
OMG ‘The Old Lady Who Swallowed the Fly’ – GOOD IDEA … I haven’t laughed so hard for days! That was funny Gail!
.
.
Muppet version
Leaving a crew of 18 will mean the supplies hold out longer, as will the space in the holding tank.
http://notrickszone.com/2013/12/30/russian-itar-tass-global-warming-boatpeople-to-be-air-lifted-from-sea-ice-surrounded-akademik-shokalskiy/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
#ClitanicDisaster
I parsed that incorrectly on first reading and was seriously worried. Too many of the wrong kind of movies and pictures I guess.
Morale is good…enforced gaiety, like happy clapping etc. It’s mostly spin. These passengers need to get off this ship, & it’s entirely weather dependent. It’s not a positive situation, & they cannot at this stage afford to have anything else go wrong.
How big is the bar on that ‘party barge’? Only the quartermaster (or seaman equiv) knows how well stocked it was …
.
Way back in this thread I suggested WUWT should make a donation towards their rescue. I was joking of course, but just consider the impact of the BBC/Guardian being bailed out (pun intended) by their nemesis WUWT.
tonyb
mkelly
December 30, 2013 at 12:21 pm
Tom J says:
December 30, 2013 at 11:03 am
‘The Coast Guard Cutter Mackinac sits pier side in sight of the Mackinac Bridge in Mackinaw City, Michigan.
131 South Huron Avenue
Mackinaw City, MI 49701
themackinaw.org’
Yes, and it’s now open as a museum; a perhaps fitting retirement for a well regarded workhorse and savior on the lakes. I’d love to visit it someday.
Thanks
Well I hope they’ll be buying carbon credits to make up for the CO2 ‘pollution’ from the rescuing ice breakers and the helicopter that will be picking them up. Let’s see if they put their money where their mouths are and expose them for the hypocrites they are.
Media ‘hub’ or media ‘tub’? (Eyes are seeing one thing, the brain another …) It’s not quite clear from what I’ve read so WHAT their purpose down there was!
.
Stuck in the ice, too much ice… http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531159/Antarctic-crew-build-ice-helipad-help-rescuers.html
In this meme, I thought I would pass along a little tid bit I picked up while watching a doco on SBS Australia about the sun. Sunday 30 December 2013 8:30-9:30 pm Qld time.
They did the usual things on how they think the sun works etc, then in the last 5 minutes of the show, they talked about how the solar minimum caused the little ice age in England. Then said more or less, that scientists know so little about the sun, they just don’t know how much effect it has on our weather.
Why is this important? Well, usually they start to throw doco’s out a couple of years before they bring it into the “public” forums.
So my simple predictions is, they will still say CO2 is the problem, but it is now exacerbated by the solar maxim / minimum. The CO2 will cause increased heat when the solar maximum is happening, and we will have excess ice buildup when the solar minimum happens.
Hey Anthony, as you seem to be a good writer (far better than I could put out by miles), perhaps you should look at doing parody article to show this is what they will come up with, in say about 18 months, then we can all go back, have a reread and laugh at their stupidity and gullibility.
The Infidel
@Mark
‘The tone of these articles makes it seem like you’re rooting for these people to drown. They’re in real danger, I hope they get rescued. After they’re safe, I’ll join in making fun of them.’
I think people are laughing in the same way they laugh at the Black Knight in Monty Python. ‘Come back its only a scratch’
It’s a sort of ‘does this guy have any connection with reality’ type of laugh
I hope they get out. but that does not stop me shaking my head in disbelief. and laughing in disbelief
Is this finally just-ice for the warmest hoaxers?
Rob Gappa says: December 30, 2013 at 10:51 am
It’s interesting to note that its the peak of summer down there and the ice is increasing not receeding. Maybe they should start studying Gobal Cooling!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
That’s a scary thought. Before you know it there’ll be a new consensus with all 97% accounted for, and full scale junk science around it, and sorry to inform you – no room for you or any real scientist. The next IPCC will be full of nitrogen capturing plants and nitrogen tax incentives. Basically same bullshit – different pile.
You did say Global Warming, didn’t you?
If they were smart they would claim victory.
Don’t underestimate them. They have written many press releases, and they know that “There is no danger” really means “run for dear life”.
With ice 4 meters thick, even if the ship sinks, they may camp on ice for quite a while. But they would miss a well supplied bar.
rubberduck says:
December 30, 2013 at 12:10 pm
Refresh button will fix that.
Yes, running low on the passengers’ fave distilled spirits and having to re-watch the same DVDs spells disaster for any cruise director ..
.
All this trip to the Antarctic demonstrates is the mentality of those involved in the promotion of the Climate Change (Global Warming). They are in a dangerous position yet do not realise it. How many gallons of fuel has been used in this trip? Answer: heaps but that doesn’t matter!.
Video footage of the Aurora Australis ice-breaker trying to make break through the ice. Didn’t take long to figure out the ice was too thick.
From the Sydney Morning Herald.
http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/aurora-australis-abandons-attempt-to-save-akademik-shokalskiy-in-antarctica-20131230-302na.html
What is the freezing point of Vodka? Drinking it at that temperature is another thing, of course …
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_freezing_point_of_vodka?#slide=1
.
To be serious for a change, I would like to say I hope nobody is injured or killed in this avoidable fiasco.
I think they have vastly underestimated the real danger they are in. If the ship is crushed by ice are they equipped to survive on the ice and for how long?
Helicopter rescue in this location is extremely risky for the casualties and even more so for the rescue crew who will have to make a number of trips – probably in conditions beyond the specification of the helicopter and impossible if the weather closes in.
Yes, it is ironic and funny but I can see tragedy looming soon, I hope I am wrong and they get out safely.
Yes, we can joke about the situation, but not wish harm. Can I suggest we all take care with our comments on this one (I include myself).
So, no assets any where near to save Amb. Stevens and the C.I.A. guys in Bengazie.
So, the Polar Snow job ice breaker is on the way already under orders from King Obama another true tax and spend Climate Chage , EPA bossman.
Safe bet the msm will not ask their king any questions on the problem of the ice being thick as he tells U.S. to send our tax money (lives) to him for the CO2 fear problem.
It is my considered opinion we sane ones will have to take control of our on ship “U.S.A.” aka take the helm as for sure these marxist mad cows will take U.S. all to an ice bound state with no food or supplies to live on with.
They are a clear and present danger to themselves and the rest of mankind.
Only fate can help them now, and our prayers.
ps,
The sun, the wind, the cold, the ice do not know they exist.
They have drawn a pair of two’s.
Fate has 4 Aces with a King of spades to spare.
Thus they own this, the ones who chose this path of known ice and cold.
Personal Responsibility is real.
Yes, it would be good for them to get out of this and never live it down, but I would like to see them run out of alcohol and coffee and be down to dry food reserves – something to pick them up and shake them because no one else and nothing else is slapping them upside the head.
Apart from the crew itself, these people are children living dangerously with no adult supervision, and they will play up again and again and again until they bump up against something unforgiving. They treat this as a joke with no thought for cost or inconvenience to anyone else.
Pay for it? Them? Do you really think so? They’ll go back home and laugh about how much fun it was to ride in the helicopter.
Is good mother Earth the only one to show backbone?
As I recall the freezing point of muscadine wine is a bit below zero. I always wanted some Duplin Carolina Red popsicles, then I keep forgetting about it in winter. Muscadine wine & persimmon beer absolutely won’t cause memory loss…. but I mis-remember why…
with advanced tools at their disposal (that Mawson never had) such as near real-time satellite imaging of Antarctic sea ice, GPS navigation, on-board Internet, radar, and satellite communications, one wonders how these folks managed to get themselves stuck at all.
__________________________________________
They are stuck for the same reason that london Heathrow had to close due to snow – they believed their own propaganda.
With Heathrow, no manager could justify buying new snow-clearing equipment, when the BBC said the climate would warm by 6 degrees in 15 years. likewise, the scientist convinced the crew that the ice just had to be melting and rotten. So Heathrow got caught in a blizzard, and the ship got stuck. Propaganda, is a very dangerous thing, because people start living in a parallel universe.
Incidentally, Sky and BBC reported the ship being stuck, but did not mention that it was on a Climate Research mission. They rather implied that is was merely a holiday cruise. That, is the level of propaganda we are still living under.
Ralph
They went down there to increase awareness of climate change. After years of obsession on the Arctic, they have finally broken the conspiracy of silence on what is happening at the other end of the planet.
No matter how they try to spin it, they’re going to look pretty stupid if they claim they got stuck in ice so thick that ice breakers turned back, but that this is due to ‘global warming’.
Whenever I explain to anyone that Antarctic ice is growing they look at me in amazement and ask me to repeat it to make sure I said what they thought they heard.
They’ve probably brought more attention in one week to the real state of climate in the Antarctic, than WUWT has done in two years.
The AAE mission has already attained it’s objective of increasing awareness of climate change.
Good on ’em.
The agitators are expendable; thousands like them have been bred at journalism school and climate change courses at universities.
I hope, though, that the sailors get through unscathed. I am also optimistic that they know best about the dangers.
Questions:
Did they (ship/party goers) purchase carbon credits/offsets prior to this incident?
How much fuel and hydraulic oil does the ship hold? I assume that it is not wind powered.
How much sewage does this vessel hold and is it discharged at sea?
Although this is a Russian flagged vessel, who are the real owners and in what port does it typically reside?
Does this expedition have a name?
How about:
“Icecapades”
(No. Probably a copy-write thing.)
“For Whom the Swell Froze”
“To There And Not Back Again, An Alarmist Tale”
“The Longest Day”
“Ice-Nado!”
No, no. no!
I’ve been to the Grauniad website and the reason the ice sneaked up on them is that it fell off the landmass.
You see the missing heat is attracted to the Antarctic landmass and that is causing the icecap to flow into the Ocean.
Not got why that happens, yet – but it I’m told it’s true.
My worry is how did the Captain fall for that sneaky icecap’s trick? Was he paid by Big Oil?
This expedition to boldly go where no man has gone (before the 1900s) was funded by the Australian Government and they are all evil, coal-mongering empiricists, don’t you know.
Perhaps they should leaf through Shackelton’s story of the loss of the Endurance, and how he saved his crew dragging long boats across the ice and sailing across stormy antarctic seas to South Georgia? In other words,
Save yourselves!!!
I suspect one aspect of the “good morale” and “party on” YouTube postings are to try to delude themselves into not facing the hazards of their situation. And likely also reassure the folks at home that things are fine, that it’s just an inconvenience.
If they’re not going to be realistic, I’m not sure we need be so ourselves. However, it’s worth anticipating the events the boat people have not.
Suppose the wind shifts and the ice begins to break up, there was excitement a couple days ago when some cracks appeared in the ice. However, would this lead to kilometer size chunks of ice running into each other – and the boat?
I have no experience with trapped boats, but I bet this a real concern and one reason why the so want ice breaker assistance to get out of there.
With software companies, there’s a term called “eating your own dog food” which means that you use your own products. This is normally done to promote the quality of your products. Looks like when alarmists eat their own dog food, it can cost them their lives and the lives of others trying to rescue them. Yet, they seem to be oblivious to the dangers that they represent. I hope everyone makes it back, but why do they have to seem so oblivious to what is going on around them? Oh wait, I think I just answered my own question.
JohnWho says: December 30, 2013 at 1:04 pm
Seriously, by all accounts, isn’t the Antarctic gaining ice?
Why go there to show a loss of ice?
__________________________________
Again, they might not have known this. the propaganda is so great that when i spoke to a professional weatherman, he did NOT know that Antarctic ice has been increasing for years. He believed the propaganda, which said that the ice was in full retreat, and did not read the small-print, which said this retreat was only on the Antarctic Peninsular.
So the whole mission may have been organised upon a complete misunderstanding of reality.
ralph
BBC World News reported 3 rescue ships failed rescue due to poor weather conditions.
No mention they were ice breakers unable to break the ice.
@ P Gosselin says:
December 30, 2013 at 11:11 am
Good post…I was going to write up something in those lines but this says it all. This is Spring Break by some who never grew up. They think they’re so cool and hip, when actually they’ve made a mockery of the scientific industry. They took a 50 million dollar vessel and are now on the verge of trashing it like out-of-control brats at a Project X party.
————————
Actually, I think they are trashing their own movement with this stunt gone wrong. They are doing more damage to the AGW meme then they can know at this point. I don’t wish anything bad to happen, but the more chaotic this situation becomes – the better for for its exposure/impact value in torpedoing the AGW cult movement.
Its becoming a internet joke – a global warming research group stuck in an ice field they didn’t believe existed – too funny :o)
I think the real story here is how biased the MSM is. They are utilising every available method to now avoid using the word ‘climate’ in the reports. It is just a ‘Russian ship’ trapped in the ice. Yet the BBC and Guardian have 5 reporters involved (yes wherever there is a BBC ‘climate change’ reporter a Guardian ‘climate change’ reporter is sure to be attached). Here is the media list
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/aae-media/
Who the hell is paying their salaries for this ‘jolly’ for the BBC reporters to be aboard and make every effort to not do their job and report the facts now it has gone wrong and the truth is inconvenient. Questions need to be asked in parliament the bias is so blatant and the licence fee and taxpayer is paying for these liars.
Last attempt to “raise awareness” did not end too well either.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/aug/19/charity-trekker-froze-death-greenland-storm
Philip Goodeve-Docker, 31, was trapped in a tent in 160mph (260km/h) winds and -70C temperatures after the storm struck two days into a 30-day, 400-mile (640km) unsupported trek across the Greenland ice cap in April.
silver ralph says:
December 30, 2013 at 2:57 pm
So the whole mission may have been organised upon a complete misunderstanding of reality.
__________________________________
This is probably the most stupid thing I’ve ever heard. Not your statement. But the fact that it may actually turn out to be true. Just unbelievable.
Correction, 5 media reporters including BBC and Guardian journalists.
Costa Climordia?
Clitanic?
Green Submarine?
Argo Not?
Frozeidon?
Das Woot?
Mary Frose?
Mismarck?
Santa Myass?
USS Enterice?
Park Royal?
Fluenose?
Britannice?
@gunga din How about Antarctic Algorithm?
john says:
December 30, 2013 at 2:44 pm
Questions:
One more question, Does Lloyds of London insure the boat?
http://www.hawaiifreepress.com/ArticlesMain/tabid/56/ID/11177/Lloyds-of-London-Lawsuit-Reveals-Story-Behind-Kahuku-Windfarm-Fires.aspx
Finnish artic expertise at its best! (Akademik Shokalskiy – built in Finland, Aurora Australis – designed in Finland) Nice continuation to our legacy (Lindblad Explorer – also built in Finland).
Breaking News:
Climate refugees from the ice trapped Akademik Shokalskiy to be offered asylum in Maldives.
This is a classic case of the leaders of a hazardous but successful expedition often being regarded as heroes (who triumphed over adversity), and the leaders of a failed hazardous expedition being called “foolish” or worse.
There are guidelines that help to ensure a successful expedition :-
1) Have a backup plan, in case the original plan fails. .. eg. Use 2 or more vehicles (or ships) in case the primary vehicle breaks down or gets stuck.
2) Advise authorities (and others) of your intentions so that they can be forewarned of any possible rescue attempts, and remember to tell them when you have returned safely.
3) Do not have a firm timetable. If you *have to get to a certain place by a certain day or a certain time you could easily be tempted to “cut corners” and take unwise risks that may be beyond the skills and abilities of all the party members.
4) Be prepared to turn around and return to safety in case you encounter conditions that are beyond the party’s skills and abilities, and there are no alternative routes.
5) Ensure that all vehicles and equipment items are suitable for the conditions that you can expect to encounter.
6) Ensure that all drivers and operators of equipment have the necessary skills and experience.
7) Be aware of weather forecasts, and other conditions that would affect the expedition, such as the state of roads, tracks, sea, ice, etc.
8) Any other points that are specific to your expedition, such as wearing suitable clothing and taking the necessary safety or rescue equipment.
“Trenberth’s missing heat? Nope, not down here!”
“The dedicated polar mission finds the region now to be dumping over 150 cubic km of ice into the sea every year. It equates to a 15% increase in West Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level rise.”
i.e. 35 cubic miles.
There are icebergs bigger than that.
GlynnMhor says: December 30, 2013 at 10:16 am
I wonder how much volume their sewage holding tanks can hold, and whether they’re going to have to start dumping straight into the ocean.
The way this ship is listing and raised, I wonder how their water intake line is doing. Don’t believe those marine engines work to well with out cooling water.
Also from the first report, why didn’t they know who to call for rescue?
AMSA’s Rescue Coordination Centre Australia (RCC Australia) was contacted by the Falmouth Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre (MRCC) in the United Kingdom on Christmas morning.
The Falmouth MRCC received a distress message via satellite from a Russian flagged vessel, MV Akademik Shokalskiy, with 74 people about 7.20am (AEDT).
Seems appropriate:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/30/hypothermia-exmoor-bicycle-ride
re: Mark says: December 30, 2013 at 12:13 pm
I don’t agree about the tone of the articles and find not the least wrong with having a bit of fun at the expense of those being so silly about anthropogenic global warming. That said, I do hope they get rescued safely – but would be happy if it occurs AFTER they’ve had a few days on “rations” or better yet, without food or at least with a bit of serious hardship. Again, I wouldn’t wish any actual harm on any of them, but they could sure stand to learn a lesson from this, particularly considering the risk to others lives and the expenses involved in rescuing them from their own foolishness.
There is quite a few things wrong with Chris Turney’s assessment of the ice-pack that has the vessel stranded.
Turney states that it’s old multi-year ice that has them stuck, while the skipper of the Aurora says its a mixture of both one year, and older ice mixed.
Then Turney wants to blame a glacier that broke off a few years ago, but we can view imagery of the glacier hes talking about and that looks like its still fairly intact, not melted or broken up like he suggests.
Also, the extent of the glacier that was left after a good portion broke off, is currently still larger than the measurements made of it by Mawson a century ago.
These guys will go to any length to make up crap.
“Clitanic” sounds rather suggestive, does it not?
We’ll all be on Santa’s naughty list if we keep going in that direction.
Jo Nova has a good post up.
The media is the story here, they are trying so hard to avoid reporting these simple facts, that they are doing full blown comedy.
Tap dancing away form the facts, its a tourist vessel , not a propaganda voyage ,sponsored by amongst others, the media, Updates are slow to come, yet the vessel is stuffed with presstitutes.
It is summer in the south, yet the ice is building around their trapped employees.
The head of the “Expedition”, has a business premised on the belief that CO2 emissions are bad, yet is allowing all kinds of fuel to be burnt, to save his sorry self.
This situation writes itself for a competent investigative journalist, the irony has saturated.
The worlds ice is melting, yet it has now stopped all rescue attempts.
2013 is ending on a comedic note.
Happy New Year.
The most remarkable thing: They actually believe their own drivel.
http://www.bisbos.com/images/hubris_in_ice.jpg
Image: Research Ship “Hubris” trapped in cherry-picked ice. Transcript of first distress message: “Research ship Hubris trapped by icy representation of Nature’s indifference to climate models STOP Lack of proper planning caused by pompous certainty in own predictions STOP Microcosm of current state of climate research STOP”
From the ships log:
“Day 12: Invented new Reality TV show “I’m a serious climate scientist – get me out of here!”
“Day 27: Still no sign of polar bears. Obviously all died out due to climate change. Had planned to have a team clean the ships solar panels, but there aren’t any. Now burning penguins to keep warm.”
“Day 35: Situation critical – power limited to 23 hours a day – scientists unable to continually send out Tweets/upload videos to YouTube from our white hell. Made a snowman!”
“Day 42: Moral low. Cheered us all up by playing our favourite game “Hide the Decline”, and planning our glorious return, lecture tours, Sunday magazine articles, glossy illustrated books, multimedia press packs, documentary series, Nobel Prize acceptance speeches, and our next major scientific expedition – surfing to the North Pole.”
Hot under the collar says at December 30, 2013 at 3:01 pm
…. Hear, Hear.
Spot on.
I really think this has a lot longer legs than Climategate did. It’s reaching a huge amount of people and a lot of news sites aren’t too sympathetic to their plight and are spelling out the irony of the whole fiasco. It will only get worse if there are accidents during the transfer or if the ship sinks.
This is one turd that can’t be made shiny, no matter how much spin the shysters try and put on it.
I was talking to a near-neighbour about the predicament of this ice-bound vessel when I discovered that he, too, was a WUWT reader and has been following this story. He’s a retired Royal Navy Commander, he served in their ‘Silent Service’ ( the subs). He has been to where the ice is, many times. He knows it only too well.
He reckoned that a sustained wind of 6 knots or more for a day, bearing on the side of the trapped vessel, would ensure that the ice will ‘compromise the integrity of the ship’s hull’. In other words, crush it. He compares 20 miles of moving 10-foot thick ice to a mountain moving a foot a day. Nothing man has ever constructed can resist it. He is most certainly not sanguine about the survival prospects of the trapped vessel if the weather turns.
Those on the trapped vessel should be worried. Very worried.
Looks as though Dr. David Barber told them not to worry about satellite observations of growing sea ice; the ice was rotten and duping the satellites.
I hope he is on board to see just how rotten it is.
Mawson and his crew travelled inland over 300 miles on dog sled. He lost 2 of his 3 companions and returned almost 3 months later only to find the steamship Aurora had left the bay and he would have to spend another winter in Antarctica.
From http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/history/2012/01/the-most-terrible-polar-exploration-ever-douglas-mawsons-antarctic-journey/
They don’t make them like that anymore.
Hi Guys,
seems nobodoy knows where the missing heat went to. But I know it! It’s here in Germany. Fifteen degrees C plus! Some flowers are starting to bloom.
And I checked the facts: The winds are comming from the south. Last year we run out of firewood in January, so I built a new shed for more stock – but in vain: I dont need it this winter.
My father, an experienced gardener, knows why it’s so warm: It’s because of the earthworms. They don’t like to go go down in the ground and stay short below surface. So the winter can’t come. They infected even the moles, so i see a lot of heaps on the lawn.
Seems those animals are disturbed by global change. And because of them a lot if polar ships got stuck. Welcome to Germany, the land of the real global warming. Come here and feel warm!
Great. More than 200 tons of fuel oil looks destined to be added to the already growing list of pollution.
http://www.bisbos.com/images/everything_we_know.jpg
“Day 63: Make new banner to sum up all the scientific findings from the expedition so far”.
The whole charade is obviously science fiction (after all, this is the 21st century…). One beloved academic definition of SF being that it consists in the “literalization of metaphor”. This is the Ship of Fools made flesh, or metal, or whatever.
Can we already nominate these pinheads, er, climate scientists, for the Darwin Awards? Or do we have to wait until the shoggoths have shambled down from the Mountains of Madness to snack on them?
Would that be the SkS Hubris by any chance?
.
On the second photo down with the Guardian banner I see mention of the activists being greeted by Adelie penguins. Global warming is causing real problems for the birds. We must act now to stop that endless fast ice around ALL of Antarctica! Sheesh! Fast ice – problem, pack ice – global warming, record Antarctic sea ice extent – global warming, any low Antarctic sea ice extent – global warming, average extent – global warming / disruptivity and so on………………………….
Warmists have done more environmental / biological damage to Antarctica than all the fossil fuel companies combined. Tagged penguins lose streamlined swimming skills to hunt for food, sunken boats leaking fuel and toxins into the pristine waters, garbage, human disease introduction, sewage, divers interfering with deep sea life, animal pathogens being introduced to wildlife via equipment, boots and clothing, rusting metal from sunken ships disturbing Mother Gaia deep biochemical processes and so on……………………………STAY AWAY.
PS Earlier this year there was a paper that found DOUBLE the number of Emperor Penguins than previously thought. It’s been a good year for sceptics.
Best I can find about the Akademik Shokalskiy is that it is owned and operated by Quark Expeditions which is part of TUI travel. Quark expeditions provides tours in both the Arctic and Antarctic regions. I haven’t found any names for an insurance underwriter.
This tour sound about as scientific as my trip this morning that demonstrated the urban heat island effect. -15 F at home, -6 F at the airport, -16 F back at home, all within 90 minutes.
Am I reading the name of the ship correctly? ‘Akademik Shokalskiy’ is it pronounced Academic Shock alski? There could be some ironic humour in that name
WUWT says, “Now, with such a fantastic failure in full world view, questions are going to start being asked. For example, with advanced tools at their disposal (that Mawson never had) such as near real-time satellite imaging of Antarctic sea ice, GPS navigation, on-board Internet, radar, and satellite communications, one wonders how these folks managed to get themselves stuck at all.”
Allow my Global Circulation Model to respond:
“This was a triumph. I’m making a note here – a huge success. It’s hard to overstate my satisfaction. AGW Science. We do what we must because we can. For the the good of all of us, except the ones who are dead. But there’s no sense crying over every mistake. Now these points of data make a beautiful line…”
tommoriarty says:
December 30, 2013 at 10:48 am
This is just the start of the Southern Hemisphere doom…
http://climatesanity.wordpress.com/2013/12/26/time-to-recognize-approaching-southern-hemisphere-disaster/
Thanks for the good laugh Tom, awesome!
Have they rung the Lutine bell at Lloyd’s yet?
He misses his banana and peanut shakes?
Cash crops I believe?
How do they get to market.?
Look, if one can be accused of being unconsciously a racist then why not unconsciously a hipocrite?
As an aside if we do away with the industrialised culture we have built up then it’ll be bad backs all round……
I will mitigate my comment by saying that he does seem like a genuinely decent guy who is trying to do the right thing and means well and I just hope this whole affair causes a paradigm shift in his head when he returns…and safely.
Ah well
I’m posting my comment here as well as the original at the Guardian because I have little faith it won’t be stalinised there.
Congrats! Your tax dollars partially funded the tourist trip to the Antarctic. Way to go “US Antarctic Program”!
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/12/30/no-antarctic-warming-since-1979/
Gary P says:
December 30, 2013 at 3:49 pm
Thanks… hers is a bit on Quark Expeditions
http://www.marketvisual.com/d/285faa46-74da-4d18-a1be-0b95baaa16ec
Question: Where have all the money gone…. Those so called scholars who claims Global Warming is the reason for the ship’s prediction are they being paid by the fiction film industry or what? It’s not possible that all extra AWG taxes and collected money to “save Ice Bears” in Arctic have been used to spend on partyships? Is it?
Jha shared his fingers seemed at risk because of the elements. What of his unprotected but growing nose?
@Jones 3:45.
Priceless, was that a flicker of reality creeping into cognition?
I wonder what the captain and crew think of these partyers. I wonder why the captain didn’t veto this stunt if he realized that it might endanger his ship.
Interesting photos…Antarctic exploration 1915…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/30/lost-antarctica-photos_n_4519375.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Canada
I wonder what chopper they have onboard now?
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2011-12/09/c_131297030.htm
Or maybe, like they said: A little putty here, a little paint there & new like a baby…
re: Will Nelson says: December 30, 2013 at 12:45 pm
________________
The models are accurate. Are you implying the ice really exists?
ROFL! Thanks so much to all for the humor… polaroids, bipolar bears, etc. Would LOVE to see the “Chinese shipmates talking” bit if someone could point me to it – I think it must have been a comment on a different but related article.
And re: jones says: December 30, 2013 at 3:45 pm, re the posted Antarctic video diary…. OMG, talk about whining! These people really are clueless about priorities and the meaning of actual hardship. I mean, there he is sitting in a clearly heated cabin in pushed up shirtsleeves, and complaining about getting 6 hours of sleep on a mattress???!!! They are desperately in need of a real world lesson to open their eyes up.
http://media.theage.com.au/national/selections/el-salvador-orders-evacuations-5043403.html?next_video=true
this is the rescue attempt
It obviously has to go into the oceans because these people are full of crap.
Adrian Mann says:
December 30, 2013 at 3:33 pm
______________________
{applause}
As a boat owner I wonder what provisions they have on these vessels to keep the Generators running since on pleasure craft, the engines are normally cooled with raw sea water often via onboard heat exchangers through which pumps circulate anti freeze to exchange heat with the raw sea water. We know that much of the sea temperature data is measured via the raw water intake on large ships.
One wonders if the temperature gets real low and the vessel is stranded, if there is there a risk of loosing the power from the generators which are required to keep the ship’s heating system operating because they may require cooling water. It would seem that some alternative provision is required for ships plying the Arctic and Antarctica.
How do they cool the engines and generators.
Re the sewerage, I would guess that they have sewage treatment plants on board which ultimately discharge overboard, but how about all the rubbish and garbage?
Anyone familiar with how this is handled?
Don’t underestimate the MSM spin machine. (E.g. the Benghazi attack caused inflammatory and hateful video, Heathrow and British Rail destroyed by the wrong type of snow, the MET office has insufficient compute resources, etc., etc.).
Somewhere in the BBC someone is trying to figure out how to pin this on big oil…
Gary P says:
“Best I can find about the Akademik Shokalskiy is that it is owned and operated by Quark Expeditions which is part of TUI travel”
All the ships of this class are owned by the Russian Academy of Science and most are based in Vladivostok: Some of them are on long-term leases to various western tour operators. At one time all of them were leased out, but in recent years the Academy has gradually been putting them back to uuse as research ships as the leases expire.
Rhoda R,
This is an interesting question about the Captain’s competency. Was he begged and cajoled against his better instincts, did he (un)knowingly just go along, or did the Captain screw this up on his own? However it actually unfolded, this event is likely to be fatal to his career, even if everyone survives.
Welcome to Polar Summer guys! Just imagine winter!
can u believe high priestess of CAGW, Suzanne Goldenberg, made this video with Laurence Topham, who is on board, just last month!!!!
Polar bears fight for survival as sea ice melts – video
VIDEO: Suzanne Goldenberg and Laurence Topham ,Source: Guardian,Length: 2min 29sec,theguardian.com ,Wednesday 6 November 2013
As winter approaches, polar bears in sub-arctic Canada begin to migrate off the tundra and head out onto the ice for the winter, where they can hunt for seals. However, climate change is delaying freeze-up, keeping the bears out on the tundra for longer – away from their main food source. US environment correspondent Suzanne Goldenberg talks to polar scientists ahead of a live Q&A from Churchill, Manitoba.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2013/nov/05/polar-bears-fight-for-survival-sea-ice-melts-video
Guardian: Laurence Topham: Since joining the Guardian in 2008…blah blah
Prior to this he worked as a freelance director & cameraman – making documentaries for charities in the UK, Sierra Leone and Kenya, while also editing for the BBC. In 2007 he worked for Current TV, where he edited over 50 short-form documentaries for terrestrial broadcast
http://www.theguardian.com/open-weekend/laurence-topham
‘Stuck in our own experiment’: Leader of trapped team insists polar ice is melting
Pirate Bay: Globull Warming Activist Ship Still Stuck In Heavy Antarctic Ice
Trapped in over 3 metres of irony.
Some latest photos, you have to laugh at this bloody idiots. It’s just too funny. Check out the Green Party person on deck while behind there is a GREAT expanse of white.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531159/Antarctic-crew-build-ice-helipad-help-rescuers.html
XUE LONG HELICOPTER OVERFLIGHT INDICATES SLIGHT ANOMALY FROM LEVEL ON PORT/STARBOARD; DUE POSSIBLY TO ICE PUSHING THE SHIP OVER. NO INDICATION IF THIS IS AN ONGOING PROCESS OR STATIC
AKADEMIK SHOKALSKIY: http://thesargasso.blogspot.ca/2013/12/akademik-shokalskiy-portstarboard.html
Here is a report from the Aurora Australis at 0900 UT, December 30 2013.
from https://secure3.aad.gov.au/proms/public/schedules/display_sitrep.cfm?bvs_id=19314
Here is a song dedicated to those idiots trapped in Antartica:
These people are idiots.
Gulligan’s Island?
That’s a photo from earlier in the expedition.
Gilligan would know.
There’s no certainty in helicopter rescue:
“It’s now up to us three ships [the Shokalskiy, the Aurora and the Xue Long] to agree on a [rescue] strategy,” Captain Doyle said.
While the Xue Long had a helicopter onboard, it was too heavy for the Aurora’s helideck.
“We also can’t use the helicopter at the moment because there is no visibility,” he said.
http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/aurora-australis-abandons-attempt-to-save-akademik-shokalskiy-in-antarctica-20131230-302na.html#ixzz2owBsS8ov
Bet noone knew science could do comedy
30 Dec: Indybay: The Paradox of Antarctic Sea Ice and Global Warming Denial: Research vessel trapped in ice
by Takver – Climate IMC
But Daniel Greenfield seems to think a ship trapped in Antarctic summer sea ice is a negation of global warming and the science involved in climate change.
His view probably had it’s origins in the climate sceptical website Watts Up with That where Anthony Watts wrote: So much sea ice in Antarctica that a research vessel gets stuck, in summer!.
But Mr Greenfield, or Anthony Watts for that matter, made little attempt to explain the complex science involved with understanding Antarctic sea ice…
According to Skeptic Science article on Why is southern sea ice increasing…
Australian Greens senator elect for Victoria Janet Rice appears in this Guardian Youtube video published 30 December 2013 from on board the Akademik Shokalski. Janet has a scientific background with her honours thesis on where lows around Antarctica were born and died. She will bring to the new Senate a perceptive understanding of climate science and the need for strong climate action.
http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2013/12/30/18748547.php
the above writer’s blog. be warned:
Takver’s Soapbox
http://www.takver.com/soapbox/climate/
who on earth are Climate IMC? i can’t get any of their sites to open:
Climate IMC
http://climateimc.org/
——————————————————————————–
Aurora Australis turned back? There’s still the helicopters! But there’s a weather delay…
That pecking on the portholes at night….just wind and ice Dr. Turney?
The patter of webbed feet on the deck plates, are those….happy feet?
The penguins can wait through the long Antarctic night for the feast of the New Sun. They know patience. Soon they will feast again Dr. Turney. Soon….
I wonder if they plan to use no fuel for heat? After all they should be using solar and wind to provide all their energy needs for cooking, washing and heating. They are a great chance to set an example here for everyone by going green at their finest hour.
It not like they would ever use some fossil fuel on these trips? And really, if they are politically correct then they should ask that rescues ships also not use carbon based fuels as such ships consume HUGE amounts of fuel per day.
Perhaps they thus insist their rescue does done in a “green” way in which large amounts of fuel are not used and is respectable of their climate agenda. Only trying to suggest they practice what they preach.
But hey, running around on a merry boat with meals cooked for you everyday going down a path planned by computer models sure sounds like a lot of fun. And hey you not only having meals cooked for you, but you likely get paid on the taxpayer’s dime for this fun and games.
I say call off the rescue because the signs of climate change are all around us. It is clear to everyone that East Antarctica is hot as bollocks and there really is no ice. There is no need to rescue people who are in an open sea, unhindered by ice. Is there? Let them eat penguin from an open, summer barbecue and frolic in the warm waters of the Antarctic.. (/sarc)
‘Scientist on trapped Antarctic ship: “Fantastic-I love it when the ice wins & we don’t.” ‘
I love it when we get to see natural selection in action.
As far as garbage is concerned if they are not within anybody’s territorial limits they’ll probably just bag it and throw it overboard. Unless they’re really green and will pack out what they pack in…..
I have seen countless people on Twitter (and elsewhere) claim that there were declining amounts of ice at the south pole and almost no ice at the north pole. I have seen countless people claim that the earth’s measured temperature has risen every year for the past 30 years. (really risen, not just Hansen’s frauds at NSA)
How do these common people come up with these falsehoods? Why it is because the fraudsters like those on the stuck boat have fed gullible people a steady diet of CO2 doom for decades. People just like the Guardian reporters stuck on that boat in heavy ice, high winds, and deteriorating conditions in the summer time.
So what if so many were fooled? Billions upon billions tossed away, sky high energy bills, loss of manufacturing jobs, and an ever expanding “green” bureaucracy seeking to control you and make sure you shiver in the dark — especially the poor.
And some on this thread think we should worry about their safety? What about the reported 33,000 in the UK who died of the cold last year? Did the alarmists worry about them any at all? I don’t wish for anything other than Karma do whatever it will. I will merely observe and wonder how some men can seek to gain power and money by frightening the masses. Fracking witchdoctors did that for ages, and now we have … what? They look to be witchdoctors to me.
As the Australians would say:
“an inconvenient………….strewth !!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
J. Herbst says:
December 30, 2013 at 3:37 pm
“Seems those animals are disturbed by global change. And because of them a lot if polar ships got stuck. Welcome to Germany, the land of the real global warming. Come here and feel warm!”
Just wait til February, smartass.
I got stuck in ice on Lake Superior in a 1960s “Baricuda” 14 foot boat back in the 1980s, boy that is a solid boat, while fishing the wind shifted and pushed ice back to shore such that it blocked our return to the cabin. We just shoved and pushed our way with oars for two hours through the 1/4 mile of icy mess back to the cabin. I suspect this “getting trapped in ice” business is pretty common for those who deal with ice on a daily basis, like Eskimos or whatever. Ice sounds a lot worse when a motor prop is hammering on the ice, making it more of a modern man issue than primitive man issue. I suspect the warmists were just too confident in their ships abiltiy to navigate ice and get out of there.
Folks, you have all missed the most important point. This scientific expedition is a huge success!
1. It has found the missing Antarctic ice. The evidence is right there, all around them, on camera, being beamed all over the world. This is undeniable.
2. It may also find the missing heat on the ocean bottom. That triumph could come any day now, especially if the present winds freshen. Stay tuned.
So I say credit where credit is due. s/off
They have updated the Spirit of Mawson blog, explaining the reason for their entrapment. Reason, mind, not excuse- it’s all sea ice and it’s all moving around for whatever reason, contributing to near-record levels.
Includes a before and after satellite photo pairing. The first one doesn’t show the whole bay so we don’t know how clear it really was.
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/one-week-on/
Ship of Fools
pat says:
December 30, 2013 at 4:44 pm
http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2013/12/30/18748547.php
_______________________
You linked to a warmunist blog which cites (Zhang, 2013) as an explanation for why Antarctic ice is increasing. In a nutshell, Zhang, 2013 attempts to say that due to anthropogenic warming, there is more wind around the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, which blows the ice around and makes it thicker and there is plenty of first year ice, too. He got there by using – wait for it- CLIMATE MODELS.
This is the same joker (Zhang, 2007) who claimed that Antarctic sea ice is growing because it’s getting warmer- via coupled ice model to ocean model. We discussed that epic failure of scientific reasoning in one of the other threads concerning the stuck boobs down south.
SIG INT Ex said:. . . Seems there was a “party” attitude of the ‘upper class’ onboard the Titanic as well.
Hardly. First, the RMS Titanic was a passenger liner, the largest in the world and “designed to be the last word in comfort and luxury” with a gym, pool, squash court, libraries, cafes, restaurants and opulence. Next, as a liner the Titanic was on a regular passenger-line course, from Southampton to New York. No different than a flight to Europe on a 777, nothing out of the ordinary.
More relevant to the thread and contradicting any hint of irresponsibility, when the worst happened some of the best of humanity showed. Despite class differences, many men followed the ‘Birkenhead Drill’ to their death.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HMS_Birkenhead_(1845)#Birkenhead_drill
“The ship’s band in any emergency is expected to play to calm the passengers. . .” (bandmaster, RMS Carpathia). It was no party, they all knew they would die, but did what they were hired to do: Play music.
So here’s to those men who did their jobs, who played until the waters took them away: Bandmaster Wallace Hartley, pianist Theodore Brailey, bassist John Clarke, violinists John Hume and Georges Krins, and to cellists Percy Taylor, Roger Bricoux and John Woodward.
They were Men. Any resemblence to the current playboys-of-climate-change is a bad hallucination and a smear on the memory of the Titanic’s band. /rant off
Richards in Vancouver says:
December 30, 2013 at 5:03 pm
“It [scientific expedition] may also find the missing heat on the ocean bottom. That triumph could come any day now, especially if the present winds freshen.”
______________________
Classic.
Even though the ice volume is growing there seems to be an increasing number of iceholes down there!
John,
Thank you.
Yes, I honestly believe it was, yes.
A cognitive paradigm shift is a painful process though…Good luck to him.
I can’t help but warm to this guy I must confess. I mean that.
Dunno why?
This is more than a complete success, they proven the existence of ice-nine!
CNN is about to air a segment with a few members on the stranded ship.
Tune into Anderson Cooper 360
Send the multi-million-dollar rescue bill to the Al Guardian and the BBC.
We hope it doesn’t deteriorate into a Dumber’s Party.
By the way. Helluva capable helicopter the Russian built Kamov 32: Co-axial – great lifting capacity.
DESIGN FEATURES: Conceived as completely autonomous ‘compact truck’, to stow in much the same space as Ka-25 with rotors folded, despite greater power and capability, and to operate independently of ground support equipment; special attention paid to ease of handling with single pilot; overall dimensions minimised by use of coaxial rotors, requiring no tail rotor, and twin fins on short tailboom; upper rotor turns clockwise, lower rotor anti-clockwise; rotor mast tilted forward 3°; twin turbines and APU above cabin, leaving interior uncluttered; lower fuselage sealed for flotation.
FLYING CONTROLS: Dual hydraulically powered flight control systems, without manual reversion; spring stick trim; yaw control by differential collective pitch applied through rudder pedals; mix in collective system maintains constant total rotor thrust during turns, to reduce pilot workload when landing on pitching deck, and to simplify transition to hover and landing; twin rudders intended mainly to improve control in autorotation, but also effective in coordinating turns; flight can be maintained on one engine at maximum T-O weight.
STRUCTURE: Titanium and composites used extensively, with particular emphasis on corrosion resistance; fully articulated three-blade coaxial contrarotatmg rotors have all-composites blades with carbon fibre and glass fibre main spars, ………
……
POWER PLANT: Two 1,633kW Klimov TV3-117V (Ka-32) or TV3-117VMA (Ka-32A) turboshafts, with automatic synchronisation system, side by side above cabin, forward of rotor driveshaft. …… Fuel in tanks under cabin floor and inside container each side of center-fuselage; capacity of main tanks 2.180 litres; maximum capacity with two underfloor auxiliary tanks 3,450 litres……
ACCOMMODATION: Pilot and navigator side by side on air conditioned flight deck, in adjustable seats. …… Seat behind navigator, on starboard side, for observer, loadmaster or rescue hoist operator. ….Direct access to cabin from flight deck. Heated and ventilated main cabin of Ka-32 can accommodate freight or 16 passengers……
http://www.aviastar.org/helicopters_eng/ka-32.php
What was said during the CNN interview.
No mention what the expedition was for. No mention of climate change.
Turney says its raining. Weather hasn’t been like this in year. They were at the wrong place at the wrong time.
blah blah blah
GlynnMhor says:
December 30, 2013 at 3:26 pm
“Clitanic” sounds rather suggestive, does it not?
We’ll all be on Santa’s naughty list if we keep going in that direction.
Perhaps “climatanic”?
@ elmer says:
December 30, 2013 at 1:59 pm
If they were smart they would claim victory.
——————
[snip – not funny !]
Mods
My earlier comment was held for moderation and now seems to have just vanished. It would be nice to know what caused that, as it would be my first ever deleted or snipped comment here.
What was wrong with it?
[Reply: Found in spam folder & posted. Sometimes it’s a mystery why that happens. ~mod]
I just checked the business expedition leader Turney is involved:
http://carbonscape.com/
They are using sawdust to make charcoal. And using this to make green steel! Or to bury it in field soil to improve fertility and to capture there the CO2 for a long time.
And they are trying to produce a lot of bi-products like oils and combustible gases. The process is done with microwaves.
1. Seems somehow expensive to use electrictiy for making charcoal by using microwaves and then. They could use (green) electricity directly to produce steel.
2. Sawdust is no waste anymore. A lot of products are made out of it and there is a good market – at least in Europe. So there will be competition for those sawdust-made products.
3. They are looking for investors, but as they doing the research from 2006, still not yet having gone in comercial production it doesn’t look like the big business.
So how did the ship get icebound as she is now?
The ship encountered a severe storm which pushed her into the position she is now.
The storm also pushed sea ice into the area and this sea ice surrounded the ship.
Inclement conditions have exacerbated the situation. More strong winds have increased the sea ice buildup and are threatening to damage the hull of the ship.
The sea ice is dangerous with large and small chunks melded together by the cold conditions. very dangerous to walk on. Very dangerous to land a helicopter on.
Trying to walk to the edge of the ice field would be extremely dangerous and not to say extremely difficult. – Not an option.
Clearing an area for use as a helipad will also be touch and go. The ice is not one solid area – it’s lots of smaller bits fused together by the cold. Evacuation by a small helicopter will require multiple visits and will also be fraught with some danger.
Ironically if the weather eases up and the ice breaks up a little and there is damage to the ship – well you can see where this is going. I wonder if the chopper crew are adapt at doing airlifts or have the ability to do so?
ConfusedPhoton says:
December 30, 2013 at 12:04 pm
…. Rescuing the people will not be easy as it will depend on: weather; skill of the pilot; aircraft performance & condition; and landing zone condition (assuming they can land)…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
“…assuming they can land…” Ah yes the dangling cable ladder…
As a caver I climbed into and out of a pit cave on a free hanging cable ladder – ONCE. That was in relatively warm conditions and no wind. I rather a hanging rope and prussik knots but not in ice and snow. (And yes I have used Jumars and Charlie Gibb’s ascenders, I still like prussiks.)
Instead of partying they should be out prepping an area for that helicopter to land.
Afraid I can’t feel too sorry for the passengers, It’s just Darwin at work. I do wonder about the Captain and crew though and how they got into this mess.
The sad fact is that once the EcoCelebs have been rescued along with their gaggle of propagandist reporters, the story will be no more. Dutiful Russian crew members staying behind, risking their lives to right a terrible wrong won’t capture the imagination of the Anglophone West that dominates the MSN and Climate Change agenda.
This story hasn’t even touched the public imagination yet, let alone captured it: three casual phone calls to media savvy friends drew a blank. Not one had heard of the drama. This being the case, it would be fitting for one or two helicopter runs to be made to evacuate the eldest of the passengers, and the infirm before the weather closes again. Then, for Mother Nature to whip their sorry arses till the ice melts and the Ship of Fools sails home in shame with all on board alive, well and utterly chastened. Only then will this be properly reported and only then will the Alarmist bandwagon discover a modicum of humility.
And my sincerest apologies to all remaining crew members for saying that should it come to pass.
ConfusedPhoton says: @ December 30, 2013 at 12:30 pm
Mark – “They’re in real danger”
……
… Even worse they do not understand the dangerous situation they have put the rescuers in!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I have every sympathy for the crews and I hope like heck the Russian skipper and his 17 volunteers makes it out alive. The others, given their attitude, I have no sympathy for what’s so ever.
These are not a bunch of innocent befuddled tourists but a bunch of campaigning activists who combined with their brethren have cause food riots in over 60 countries (2008 biofuel -food crisis) the real deaths of thousands in the UK (fuel poverty), not to mention undermining the economies of several nations and potentially causing the suffering and early deaths of not thousands but millions.
If Mother Nature wants to deliver a hard object lesson to activists so be it.
The unfortunate problem is they will just find a way to spin it.
Well just saw Anderson Coopers interview with those trapped. Seems they have no idea how a serious situation they are potentially in. Seems a new years party and drinking is the main thing on their mind while serious money is being spent to rescue them not to mention the risk to life of the rescuers.
I also watched Global National news Canada and they called it a research ship but no mention that is was involved in climate change research.
Way to go MSN, two thumbs down.
I
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11179877
Expedition leader Professor Chris Turney described the past week as “sobering” in a blog post.
“At the time we were initially caught by the sea ice, the Shokalskiy was just 2 to 4 nautical miles from open water.
“Now the sea ice distance has become even greater with the continued winds from the east, putting our nearest point of exit at some 16 nautical miles.”
3pm NZT Radio news Helicopter from Xue Long will attempt to lift the fools off tomorrow if weather permits. Landing pad has been marked out on the ice, then transfer when safe to Aurora. Captain and 22 crew to remain with Akademie.
J. Herbst says:
December 30, 2013 at 5:39 pm
I just checked the business expedition leader Turney is involved:
http://carbonscape.com/
They are using sawdust to make charcoal. And using this to make green steel! Or to bury it in field soil to improve fertility and to capture there the CO2 for a long time.
========================================================
Maybe he’s trying to reinvent Pykrete?
Please leave them there. Feed them, don’t make them eat each other, but make them suffer for a few months. And shut off their internet.
It’s truly a ‘ship of fools’ … trying to laugh off what should be treated as a very serious concern to those on board and those sent to rescue these naive global warming alarmists. It should be of even created concern if somehow this vessel sinks and the resulting pollution impacts on the area.
When these idiots are back on dry land, just you wait … they’ll use their 15 minutes of fame to promote dangerous man-made global warming!
The media are doing an atrocious job reporting the truth about this ‘expedition’ relating to this ‘ship of fools’ following in the footsteps of Mawson’s expedition 100 years ago and for which film footage exists showing an absence of sea ice.
John says:
December 30, 2013 at 2:44 pm
Questions:
…Although this is a Russian flagged vessel, who are the real owners and in what port does it typically reside?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Hobart in Tasmania: link
They should have done their reading
http://www.amazon.com/South-Endurance-Expedition-Ernest-Shackleton/dp/0451198808
They should Just be glad that they won’t have to stay for two years feasting on penguin and seal.
30 knot winds – hard to fly heli.
Aurora Australis can’t get close enough:
http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/30122013_AkademikShokalskiyUpdate7_Media_Release.pdf
Anyone seen video of how an icebreaker actually works? They kind of surge up and then smash down onto the ice. Very slow progress to smash a channel through, and only then through a few feet.
clipe says: @ December 30, 2013 at 3:07 pm
The SS CAGW challenges the Ice Dragon… and loses
Just posted the comment below on the ABC Lateline website, they covered the story before the boat sailed but I cannot see a link to the ship in it’s current state.
“Maybe you could do a follow up to the interview and ask why they were trapped by increasing ice and could not be reached by rescue icebreakers.
Interesting how Lawson sailed right in and the wooden boats made it in for 3 summers.
You could also ask who paid for the rescue and why after they got stuck the main stream media dropped all reference to Global Warming / Climate Change etc. They were just tourists on a ship stuck in the ice.
Just an idea.
I will be looking for a follow up to the expedition and the spin regarding how Global Warming has caused the ice to increase in Antarctica for the last 3 decades.
Regards, Richard
Teddi says: @ December 30, 2013 at 2:58 pm
…Its becoming a internet joke – a global warming research group stuck in an ice field they didn’t believe existed – too funny :o)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Even better the timing could not be more perfect. People are at home inside relaxing between Christmas and the New Year and this is better than watching the soaps.
Peter Yates says: @ December 30, 2013 at 3:16 pm
This is a classic case of the leaders of a hazardous….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You forgot one.
Make sure all of the members are competent both physically and mentally.
All too often you get tourists taken to places or put into situations they have no business being in.
Life is Lethal!
Okay. Thanks for the addition. … cheers.
Anthony,
Your story is incomplete without a link to the great archive film
Mawson in ice-free Commwealth Bay Antarctica in 1912
That’s where they are now.
It was ENTIRELY ICE FREE 100 years ago…
The whole point of their expedition was to show that, if 100 years ago there was no ice, now it’s all but a tropical beach.
But the climate change professor directing the expedition on Mawson’s steps
wasn’t aware that climate has changed.
The reporter from The Guardian embedded with the expedition, blogging about emissions melting ice, is now complaining loudly that he ran out of bananas….
In the climate models, he could pick fresh bananas there…
Turney’s Lament –
As I sailed the warming mare,
I met with ice that wasn’t there.
It wasn’t there again today –
I wish, I wish it’d go away!
(Apologies to William Hughes Mearns)
Maybe they will get a visit from the Greenpeace Santa, who is looking for ice
Love the typo. How appropriate. It is officially an exhibition.
It seems the “Polar Star” left Seattle on December 3rd for its own mission to Antarctica.
(recently out of a three year long refit)
http://www.marinelink.com/news/icebreaker-antarctica361666.aspx
Mervyn says:
December 30, 2013 at 6:20 pm
“The media are doing an atrocious job reporting the truth about this ‘expedition’ ”
You are doing them injustice. The media are doing a splendig job lying about this expedition.
You have to know the job description.
> Perhaps “climatanic”?
“Climydia”
A curious angle on the press coverage of this whole “expedition”. Namely, the captain and crew of the Akademik Shokalskiy are utterly missing from all reports from the ship (at least as far as I can find in my searches on the internet) and completely excluded from all pictures transmitted from the vessel (a former spy ship, incidentally–that odd factoid appearing in the caption to one of the Guardian’s Alok Jah articles). It’s almost as if the tacky, laboring, rude-mechanic, scut-work sailor-trash–to include the captain–whose trivial, on-board chores involve nothing more challenging than merely keeping the ship afloat and running, would spoil their privileged-white-dork betters’ saving-the-planet-for-the-kids, aren’t-we-beautiful? photos (“selfies” in the main) and jaunty twitters/blog-posts, if their scrofulous, riff-raff, low-rent, hireling butts were to be written of or seen.
Of similar curiosity, one notes that, even in the expedition’s current peril, the MSM has kept its focus on the improbable Professor Turney, rather than the master of the ship. The inertia, perhaps, of an agit-prop, PR campaign, originally intended to present Professor Turney to the world as a larger-than-life, supreme-smarty-pants, all-wise, father-figure hive-hero, vaguely derived from NK’s “Great Leader” model, as the basis upon which to further establish the good Professor as an unimpeachable-authority, Pythian-mouth-piece, media-genic, personality-cult-figure dispenser-deluxe of the hive’s related “memes”, “narratives”, flim-flam, and scare-boogers, scheduled for roll-out in the later, hype-exploitation phase of this whole, half-baked, potentially tragi-comic, Antarctic boondoggle-stunt, currently showing its ass, big-time?
But, then, who really knows what’s what with this doofus bunch of eco-retard fuck-ups, we’ve got running the hive nowadays.
climatereason says:
December 30, 2013 at 11:24 am
Anthony
How about WUWT offering a donation towards their rescue?
>>>>>
Great idea! Let’s all exhale to provide more CO2 to warm the seas.
There, I did my part….
Thanks for the link Scute showing Australian-Tax-Payer-Leech Turney’s comments:
“Meanwhile on board the Shokalskiy, moral remains good and the team are pulling together in an extraordinary way. Everyone is working hard to support one another. Take a look at the video diaries on the Intrepid Science YouTube Channel to see what we are up to. We are all keeping busy, with twice daily briefings outlining all the information we have to hand, alongside classes through the day (knot tying, languages, yoga, photography and many others) while the science programme has continued as best we can.
Thanks for all your support and we hope to see you all soon.”
Languages: Maybe penguin? Knot tying: mass suicide? We hope to see you soon: Hmmm! No comment on that one.
I think silver ralph’s comment is worth repeating (30th Dec 2:57). In it, he says,
“when i spoke to a professional weatherman, he did NOT know that Antarctic ice has been increasing for years. He believed the propaganda, which said that the ice was in full retreat, and did not read the small-print, which said this retreat was only on the Antarctic Peninsular.”
I couldn’t imagine how they could be so stupid as to try to retrace Mawson’s route knowing that Antarctic sea ice extent had been increasing for years and was way above average as they set sail. This meant it was a given that his route was up to 40 miles away across the ice. I am now coming to the realisation that they really didn’t know the ice extent. I wondered if it really could be possible but had dismissed the idea. But silver ralph’s point that the retreat was only on the Antarctic Peninsular explains it. Every scheming alarmist sexed that up to the point where everyone believed it applied to all Antarctic sea ice- including scientists.
I think this is quite important. If it’s true it would be quite astounding. It may be fruitful to see what the pre-expedition propaganda has to say. They certainly won’t admit to it after the fact.
And it is as well to remember that many, probably most, delegates at Doha earlier this year didn’t know that the globe hadn’t warmed for 16 years. So there is a precedent.
Reminds me of the story of the little old lady who swallowed a fly and then a spider…
The Specter of Suspicion
From http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/saunders/article/Global-warming-researcher-gets-stuck-in-ice-5102720.php
He [Geographer, “Dr.” Chris Turney] pushes a framework of science being data-driven and free from politics. And yet it’s hard to escape the suspicion that whatever the icebound researchers experience, they will frame it as proof that climate change is unassailable.
Nobel Laureate Physicist Alan Boyle of the BBC “Stellar Institute of Anthropogenic and Human Global Warming” explains
“Icebreakers are indispensable for traffic through polar seas, but they’re not invincible.”
“AMSA’s Rescue Coordination Center said in a statement. ‘The helicopter is unable to fly in the current weather conditions, and will hold off on rescue until conditions improve.'”
Another Call For Help Go To … America’s Icebreakers?
“The Polar Star is just returning to service after a years-long, $90 million overhaul. It’s designed to get through a 6-foot-thick (2-meter-thick) layer of ice when it’s sailing at 3.5 mph — and when it’s in its backing-up-and-ramming mode, it’s capable of handling ice that’s up to 21 feet (6.5 meters) thick.”
Really. Loose a propeller then where are you at? Answer: A worked of hurt!
“The expedition leader on the Shokalskiy, Chris Turney, told TODAY that the Polar Star could “definitely get us out” — but that wasn’t in the cards. Pellissiere said his ship was between Honolulu and Sydney, and would require a week or so to sail to Antarctic if needed.”
Ah Ha! Politics enters by the mouth of the Geographer [a variant of the bacillus Foot N Mouth].
“The expedition leader on the Shokalskiy, Chris Turney, told TODAY that the Polar Star could “definitely get us out” — but that wasn’t in the cards. Pellissiere said his ship was between Honolulu and Sydney, and would require a week or so to sail to Antarctic if needed.”
Not So Fast Nobel Laureate Academician Geographer Turney
“”As of right now Australia is coordinating the rescue operations,” Coast Guard spokeswoman Allyson Conroy said in a statement. “The nearest U.S. Coast Guard asset is more than 3,000 nautical miles away. We are communicating with Australia and standing by if our assistance is indeed needed.”
Not even sacrifices onboard of the Akademik Shokalskiy to the God of The Anthropocene can beat Physics!
Physics Wins!
If I was on that ship, I would commandeer an Ice augur and a tent along with some fishing equipment and be ice fishing for the duration.
The “Way Back Machine” needs to capture all they did and said prior.
Most likely they are on the delet buttons now 24/7.
Jo Nova has succinctly commented on this whole “Scientific Expedition” which has now been retitled as”tourist cruise” by theses MSM which deign to report it. The whole fiasco has been funded by in part the University of NSW and of course underwritten by the Australian Taxpayer. One of the last acts of the previous government prior to the election. See Jo Nova’s site for more details. At least now the Prime Minister’s chief business adviser has come out in The Australian Newspaper today with some very caustic comments on the whole IPCC Climate change Global Warming hysteria and its effects on Australian economy. Thankfully more people are waking up and soon this rubbish will be given the heave ho. Meanwhile I think the fools down on the ship in Antarctica would be left there to contemplate the true meaning of weather and ice and snow and perhaps just occasionally a helicopter should drop some rations down to them to keep them from starving – say for another 6 months or so.
Maybe by then they will recant?
cheers
I cannot comment beyond all that was done prior.
All I can do it share……
The irony is immense.
If I were on that ship right now, I’d be doing fifty press-ups and fifty squats a day, eating my fish ‘n veg and declining the chips, mince pies and booze. Seriously, it could be a life-saver a week from now.
A little off topic, but does anyone know why the DMI Arctic temps (N80) haven’t been updated for the past 3 weeks?
I sent an e-mail to DMI inquiring about this and got an auto reply advising they’ll reply to within 2 weeks…
andrewmharding says:
December 30, 2013 at 10:50 am
One question I would like an answer to is how did the icebreaker that went to rescue them only get to seven miles from them? Presumably they would have plotted the shortest ice-free route, there must be at least 49 square miles of ice several yards thick!!
Why don’t they get out and walk the seven miles to the rescue ship?
It seems that there are a couple quotes from the most famous Antarctic explorer is appropriate here :
“Adventure is just bad planning.” ….. Roald Amundsen
“I may say that this is the greatest factor — the way in which the expedition is equipped — the way in which every difficulty is foreseen, and precautions taken for meeting or avoiding it. Victory awaits him who has everything in order — luck, people call it. Defeat is certain for him who has neglected to take the necessary precautions in time; this is called bad luck.”
— from The South Pole, by Roald Amundsen
Reference : http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Roald_Amundsen
This is a nominee for the 2013 “Oh the Pain” trophy..
Anthony, you have sent calendars how about a trophy?
I Will kick in!
Alan Robertson –
yes, i realised it was a fact-free CAGW zone…
a little reminder of what the CAGW crowd are willing to inflict on others:
30 Dec: UK Daily Mail: John Hall: Wind farms ‘slash up to a THIRD off value of nearby homes … while developers pocket millions’
Geoffrey Cox MP says constituents are told homes worth ‘significantly less’
The Conservative MP says he has seen a minimum 10% reduction in value
Planning Minister Nick Boles plans compensation for those affected
In October, campaigners living near Ilkley in Yorkshire, won a campaign to have four giant turbines dismantled – the first ever wind farm to be scrapped in the UK.
Residents and walkers were delighted by the return of unspoilt views across the rolling hills and deep blue waters of Chelker Reservoir.
And to their relief, the 150ft high turbines will not be replaced after the council refused permission for two even bigger machines…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531219/Wind-farms-slash-THIRD-value-nearby-homes-developers-pocket-millions.html
mike says:
December 30, 2013 at 7:02 pm
A curious angle on the press coverage of this whole “expedition”. Namely, the captain and crew of the Akademik Shokalskiy are utterly missing from all reports…
>>>>>
Not all reports shipmaster Igor Kiselyov told Itar-Tass on Monday….
The Daily Mail article has some interesting reader comments.
“Global warming” is becoming a joke in the scientific world.
Has anyone done the math to figure out the carbon footprint of these geniuses and their vanity trip? Not to mention the real world price tag? To whom do we send the bill?
Has anyone been monitoring the Russian blogs? Do they do a better job of covering what is going on with the crew?
GlynnMhor says:
December 30, 2013 at 10:30 am
“How long till they run out of diesel, and have to start burning their personal electronic devices for fuel?”
Being the beginning of summer down there and those aboard being green conscious, I would suspect they have their solar panels up and their windmills churning in order to provide all the green power they need to last until minimum ice sometime in March.
Here’s a Mawson Demotivational Poster!
I really think they should have to pay to be rescued, otherwise they should be left there frozen for eternity really, (and in my movie they will be marooned there for eternity):] But of course someone will eventually have to waste valuable resources on these useless brie and bagel eaters and defilers of the Antarctic!:] Then they will live to spread their vile GW propaganda hither and yon but people may well see the lies this time, I hope!:]
Answering myself – probably too much to expect that the Russians are interested in the fate of the Russian ship given the troubles their having with their own representatives of the Religion of Peace (TM).
Last Journal Entry:
Do not taunt Mother Nature.
@ benofhouston says:
December 30, 2013 at 6:28 pm
They should Just be glad that they won’t have to stay for two years feasting on penguin and seal.
—————————-
What does penguin taste like ?
Auto said: “Ah, but still – per the BBC: –
“Despite being trapped, the scientists have continued their experiments, measuring temperature and salinity through cracks in the surrounding ice.””
Of course, temperature and salinity of water passing through melting ice will somehow be relevant for some purpose.
As amusing as this little saga has been it serves to highlight a far more serious problem. If we skeptics tried we could not script a green fail as monumental as Prof Turney has kindly (blindly) done for us. The most worrying part of this sad tale is that the media has been exposed for what it is; a purveyor of lies. This is a big story that possesses irony seldom found and MSM journalists are hard at work burying the truth. We are entering an era where the media will dictate what we ‘know’, I am forming the opinion that it is the climate scientists that are the useful idiots and those that control the media are the ones who control the future, we should do our best to discover and reveal.
http://io9.com/what-happened-the-night-niagara-falls-stopped-flowing-1017625850
The time the wind and iced conspired to stop Niagara Falls for 2 days in March of 1848.
Found this in the comment section of The Independent.
“John Belushi 5 hours ago
Will it have any effect on (AGW) Al Gore Warming?”
I must be slower than I thought.
I never even saw that one coming.
AGW …. all this time the perfect acronym.
cn
Bill Illis says: “Video footage of the Aurora Australis ice-breaker trying to make break through the ice. Didn’t take long to figure out the ice was too thick.”
The captain of the Aurora Australis, Murray Doyle, is shown in an interview somewhere. He’s far from stupid. I’m not so sure about the captain of the Quakademik Shlockalskiy. Do you suppose stupidity is contagious? He might have easily caught a severe case from his “passengers” or “tourists” or “sciency guys.” Whichever. Has anyone seen his name?
Teddi says: What does penguin taste like ?
Chicken, of course.
Where’s JOSH?
At any moment Professor Lewandowsky (formerly of the University of WA and now of Bristol University) will issue a peer/pal reviewed paper entitled “Cognitive dissonance of Deniers mocking heroic CAGW pseudo-scientists trapped in global warming ice”
I cannot wait.
One interesting point of dissonance is that before they set off Professor Turkey blogged that Commonwealth Bay has been blocked for the past three years by a giant (75-mile long) iceberg that has lodged there. If he already knew that, how did this Band of Boonies intend to land? A Moses act of parting the ice and waters perhaps. Yet another mystery to be solved. I mean, Google maps would have told them it was a bad idea before they set off with my taxes in their pockets.
Let’s hope the UNSW picks up the costs as this will mean they have to close some unnecessary departments (probably medicine, engineering and physics) as this disaster shows just how important the Department of Climate Mythology really is.
Have I got this right? A pair of Australian professors whose names sound like Christmas Turkey and Fogwilly use research funds to organise a tourist trip PR stunt in Antarctica by chartering a ship with a name that sounds like MV Academic Shocks-are-likely. A bipolar expedition?
Admiral Turney of the HMS Clitanic heroically raises his telescope to his blind eye, and announces :
“I see no ice”
Teddi says: @ December 30, 2013 at 7:59 pm
What does penguin taste like ?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Oily and fishy and if you are lucky with out the dash of mud.
URGENT PRESS NOTICE FROM THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
I Obama have dispached Sec. of State John F. Kerry to conduct talks with the pack ice. He will have Al Gore on his team. I will play a round of golf and work with the Pres. of General Electric on how he will make sure NBC news covers up this mess for me.
Back to your jobs and send in your taxes.
Pres. Obama
The whole episode reminds me of the excellent novel by W.E. Bowman: “The Ascent of Rum Doodle”. One of the funniest books you’ll ever read.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ascent_of_Rum_Doodle
Arrogance plus ignorance……….priceless!
One can only hope the Guardian gets to foot the bill for the rescue.
Gail Combs says: “…shipmaster Igor Kiselyov told Itar-Tass on Monday…”
My prayers are with Shipmaster Kiselyov and his crew. I hope they will be home soon and safely.
r murphy says: @ December 30, 2013 at 8:06 pm
…. I am forming the opinion that it is the climate scientists that are the useful idiots and those that control the media are the ones who control the future, we should do our best to discover and reveal.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Already did that see comment – looking at the board of directors and owners gives you the answers.
Also peer-reviewed paper The Network of Global Corporate Control “We present the first investigation of the architecture of the international ownership network, along with the computation of the control held by each global player. We find that transnational corporations form a giant bow-tie structure and that a large portion of control flows to a small tightly-knit core of financial institutions…. we find that only 737 top holders accumulate 80% of the control over the value of all TNCs …” (TNCs = transnational corporations)
@Gail Combs,
Yr: 30 December 7:38 p. m. comment
Thank you, Gail, for the link to that article–finally I have the skipper’s name. Strange that the names of the ship captains of the “rescue” vessels are all readily available, but not the name of the Akademik Shokalskiy’s master.
And your link strikes me as a further confirmation that the press coverage of this whole Antarctic, expedition fiasco is being carefully “managed.” In the story you link, some gutsy crew-members of the Adademik Shokalskiy volunteered to stay with their ship in hopes of salvaging her. All that decided at a meeting of the captain and crew on Monday. Pretty compelling human interest material, there, I would say.
But the above aspect of “story” is ignored in Western media in favor of the far more (sarc) compelling story of a bunch of eco-worthies, in-over-their head, trying to get their anxious-butts clear of the looming disaster, just as fast as some other gutsy types–Chinese, chopper pilots–can haul them out.
Heroics abound in this unfolding, Akademik Shokalskiy misadventure, I can see, but the MSM apparently wants nothing to do with such “things”. Not sure exactly why, but suspect that coverage of the real heroism in this story would take the lime-light away from the hive-picked cast of characters being groomed and promoted to flog the hype-exploitation, CAGW flim-flam to follow–and our betters wouldn’t want that to happen. Time will tell.
Aagain, thanks for the link, Gail.
In the meantime, my admiration is for the crew of the Akademik Shokalskiy and the Chinese pilots steeling themselves for the real challenges ahead. Wish more coverage were given these brave men (and women?). But not gonna happen, I think, for reasons previously given.
The media running dead on this reminds me of this quote – They are complicit in the fraud
“And it has been clear from the start that the media have understood exactly how bad Obama has been because they have known with precision exactly what parts of what Obama has done or said that have required their cover. Obama has had to lie over Benghazi and so they have covered for him to the maximum extent they could. Obama tells producers “you didn’t build that” and the media runs dead with the quote so that it never really becomes as significant as it ought to be. They know exactly how dreadful Obama has been, and cannot even manufacture a greater good, that their lies and distortions have protected the community from having to do without, had Obama lost the election in spite of every service they rendered in defence of his reputation and image.” Steve Kates Quadrant 9/11/2012
Teddi says: What does penguin taste like ?
Janice says: Chicken, of course.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Nah, Mud duck – yuck!
As a retired Sailor I can tell you that comments regarding false bravado and putting up a good front are spot on. It seems to be a natural psychological response to fear. The smell of fear is a tangible thing. In the confines of close quarters; one not easily forgotten. We can hardly expect the expedition leader to roll over and cry like a baby. Once out of danger, a good leader will accept responsibility for his actions.
Having said that, I believe several emergency options are available to cast and crew, including an overland trek to the modern Mawson huts. Antarctic ice will recede for at least another month and I’ll take bets the ship will survive. For those interested, the Spirit of Mawson objectives (albeit weak) are outlined in bulleted format on the expedition web site. One objective is to examine the cause of the increased Antarctic sea ice extent. Methinks, the expidention was launched to find a suitable excuse for this inconvenient truth.
200 tons of fuel plus hydrolic oil may kill a substantial part of the wild life over there, including the curious and adorable penguins
And the reason for the desaster would be a tax payer funded so called scientific mission to study the effects of global warming and diminishing sea ice, despite Antarctica has seen 30 years of cooling, increasing and even record sea ice..
Tax payer money should never have been spent here and those responsible for funding should be held accountable.
Leo G says:
Have I got this right? A pair of Australian professors whose names sound like Christmas Turkey and Fogwilly use research funds to organise a tourist trip PR stunt in Antarctica by chartering a ship with a name that sounds like MV Academic Shocks-are-likely. A bipolar expedition?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ROTFLMAO
If a real journalist wanted to write a story on this he could start off with that line.
Gunga Din says: “Maybe he’s trying to reinvent Pykrete?”
Oh, yeah. I remember Pyke. He was a bit of a nutter, too. He was going to make torpedo-proof rafts of frozen ice/sawdust to cross the Atlantic. They might have actually worked.
the BBC guy on board, being described on BBC as a news producer, or simply BBC’s Andrew Luck-baker. can’t bear to look for the interviews they do with him, cos he always claims he doesn’t want to get out of the situation – it’s so beautfiul & all that:
4 Nov 2012: Nature & Science by Andrew Luck-Baker
Ocean Acidification, Corals and Ken Caldeira
This is a spin-off post from the radio series for the BBC World Service I am currently producing, Discovery: The Age We Made. Presented by science writer Gaia Vince, it consists four programmes looking at the notion that humans have launched a new geological time period on the planet, the Anthropocene.
Further down, I have posted the audio of a great interview we did with leading climatologist Ken Caldeira on the seemingly likely fate of the world’s coral reefs, because of the geologically extraordinary alterations we are making to the Earth’s atmosphere…
http://natureandscience-alb.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/ocean-acifidication-corals-and-ken.html
BBC Discovery 2008
For these two editions of Discovery Andrew Luck-Baker visits the Pacific Islands of Palau – home to one of the greatest coral reef systems on the planet yet the reefs are not immune from pressures such as fishing, pollution and climate change…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/specials/948_discovery_2008/page28.shtml
can’t even find the following on BBC website, & the comments suggest people don’t have a clue what this is about, but love how ABL is “there”!
27 Dec: Facebook: BBC World Have Your Say
A Chinese icebreaker is on its way to help a research ship that’s trapped in ice in Antarctica. It has been there for two days now…
The BBC World Service’s science producer, Andrew Luck-Baker is there and will take your questions about the expedition. What would you like to ask him?
https://www.facebook.com/worldhaveyoursay/posts/10151881887269150
Gail Combs says:
December 30, 2013 at 7:38 pm
mike says:
December 30, 2013 at 7:02 pm
A curious angle on the press coverage of this whole “expedition”. Namely, the captain and crew of the Akademik Shokalskiy are utterly missing from all reports…
>>>>>
Not all reports shipmaster Igor Kiselyov told Itar-Tass on Monday….
———————
Thanks Gail – that was an interesting take…
The Captain saying “I want to point out that they all are volunteers and they all will continue to work to a victorious end” is in stark contrast to the Turney comments.
Gail Combs says: “These are not a bunch of innocent befuddled tourists but a bunch of campaigning activists who combined with their brethren have cause food riots in over 60 countries (2008 biofuel -food crisis) the real deaths of thousands in the UK (fuel poverty), not to mention undermining the economies of several nations and potentially causing the suffering and early deaths of not thousands but millions.”
I have mixed emotions about them, sort of like a guy who’s just been mugged watching the mugger get hit by a car as he runs away. On the one hand, it’s sad; on the other hand, it’s karmageddon.
You’re killing me Gail!
Following on from David Archibald’s log of lost ships:
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/grounded-ship-authorities-race-oil-spread-on-great-barrier-reef-20100404-rlfr.html
Different “pristine environment”, different “cargo”, different set of priorities…
Love the renaming of the ship.
mike says: @ December 30, 2013 at 8:26 pm
Thank you, Gail, for the link to that article–finally I have the skipper’s name….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
One of the worst aspects of this is shipmaster Igor Kiselyov will probably never be allowed to command a ship again.
His name may be left out for just that reason, he will be the one to take all the blame so the media do not want readers to become familiar with him. (The are de-humanizing him)
This is of course a SWAG, so we will see how it plays out.
“Adventure is just bad planning” Roald Amundsen
I don’t see these people as enemies… just wrong thinking. The ice? Well, it was there and someone made a mistake. I don’t really care how they want to spin this when it’s over. I would just like to see them all safe. Ignorant and safe is …okay. Truth will win out in the end.
Okay, I know they are money-grubbing, lying mud-sucking watermelons but I always hold out hope for redemption.
A video from Erik Van Sebille 12/31/2013.
Erik says that he was writing a paper on the trip that he could have written in his office in the University in Sydney (but it is quieter on the boat)*. And he is waiting to be evacuated at some point in the near future.
*Australian tax payers may wish to inquire as to why they got to pay for a no-doubt pointless piece of paper writing on an ice bound boat in Antarctica and in an office in Sydney. (Or perhaps they just have too much money in Australia).
Does any of this refute data, actual measurements, showing that the Southern Ocean is warming?
Penguin probably tastes like chicken as does everything else in that category. Exceptions are duck, goose and many game birds. Many think that alligators also taste like chicken, but although many of the flavor elements are similar, those that are more discriminating find significant flavor profiles exist that are different from the impressions of occasional eaters. Eat more penguin and become an expert. That’ll probably drive PETA nuts. But if it walks, flies , swims or crawls, you can probably eat it. And many of them will eat you if given the opportunity. Myself, I would aim for a Chinese twice cooked affair. Take a penguin breast. Slow simmer it for 40 minutes with about 10 ginger slices and a couple of smashed cloves of garlic. Cool and slice into 1″ x 2″ pieces 1/8″ thick. Stir fry it with home made or commercial kimchee. Serve over rice or rice noodles. Or you could make it into spring rolls. Or you could take thin slices of the raw breast, Marinate them in fish sauce, garlic, a little lemon or lime juice and chopped shallots or scallions, grill them and roll them in rice paper with a cucumber slice, peanut sauce mint leaves and cilantro. Don’t have that fancy stuff on board? Then cut it into small chunks, saute it and make your favorite chilli from memory. I would imagine that grilled penguin breast, medium rare could be a classic with those who don’t mind the probable background fish flavor. Some of you will laugh at me, but if you are trapped and must eat what’s available, why not make it as palatable as possible?
BTW On Jan. 12 We’re leaving on a Quark expedition to the other side of Antartica. Planned and paid for before I discovered and started spending three hours or so daily on this website. I will eat whatever nature throws at me. My choice. Just hope it doesn’t screw up the kayaking among the icebergs we paid for. Spent all summer practicing for that.
At least they are making themselves useful with classes through the day in knot tying, languages, yoga and photography. Excellent projects to get out of mortal danger.
All news stories claim the Australis’ rescue bid was foiled by bad weather. Nonsense! This is pure media spin. I saw web cam views of the ship trying to break the ice. Clearly, the problem was ice thickness exceeding ship’s design specs and not an imaginary blizzard. If the weather was a problem, why not resume after the storm passed?
More media spin to protect the message. I’m throwing the BS flag on this one!
It may be summer now but remember….Winter is coming….
part 3 is now up:
BBC Discovery: The Return to Mawson’s Antarctica – Part Three
Duration: 29 minutes
First broadcast:Monday 30 December 2013
Alok Jha and Andrew Luck-Baker continue to follow the scientists on the ongoing Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013. They go out on fieldwork trips with the researchers studying how the wildlife that lives in this inhospitable environment is responding to climate change… Ornithologist Kerry-Jayne Wilson discovers that an iconic breeding colony of Adelie penguins at Cape Denison, the rocky area where Douglas Mawson built his expedition hut, has depleted numbers as the fast ice has grown.
Alok Jha and Andrew Luck-Baker continue to follow the scientists on the ongoing Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013. They go out on fieldwork trips with the researchers studying how the wildlife that lives in this inhospitable environment is responding to climate change.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01nh2zw
16 Dec: BBC Programme Info: Discovery: Return To Mawson’s Antarctica
Over four weeks in December and January, BBC World Service’s Discovery will be embedded with a team of Antarctic researchers on board an ice-breaker retracing the route of the first Australasian Expedition to Antarctica
The BBC’s Andrew Luck-Baker and Science journalist Alok Jha join the 26-strong scientific team led by Professor Chris Turney of the University of New South Wales. They study penguins, record the underwater songs of seals and deploy a robot submarine to sample the rich sea life under the ice.
A drone aircraft helps navigate the ship through a gigantic iceberg and visit Mawson’s original hut. Along with continuous recording of sea temperatures, sea ice thicknesses, wind speeds and pollution, the expedition aims to illuminate environmental change in this part of Antarctica, and the frozen continent as a whole.
For one month, Alok and Andrew will report on Antarctic science, history and the dramas of life on the ice in four special programmes on the BBC World Service, recorded as the journey progresses to bring the Antarctic to life for a global audience.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/proginfo/2013/51/ws-antarctic-1.html
research? don’t think so.
not too bad for the Chronicle:
30 Dec: San Francisco Chronicle: Debra J. Saunders: Global warming researcher gets stuck in ice
A funny thing happened during Australian climate-change professor Chris Turney’s venture to retrace a 1912 research expedition in Antarctica and gauge how climate change has affected the continent: Two weeks into a five-week excursion, Turney’s good ship MV Akademik Shokalskiy got trapped in ice. It turns out, global warming notwithstanding, that there’s so much ice down under that two ice-breaking vessels sent to rescue the research team cannot reach the Australasian Antarctic Expedition…
Years ago, global warming believers renamed the phenomenon “climate change” – probably because of pesky details like unusually cold weather undercutting the warming argument. Now, just as advocates argue that Earth is approaching a tipping point, there’s so much ice floating in Antarctica during the Southern Hemisphere’s summer that the Australasian Antarctic Expedition posted in a statement: “We’re stuck in our own experiment.”
Does this incident mean that climate change is an illusion or a hoax? Of course not. Even during its summer, Antarctica is subject to extreme weather. “Bad weather is the norm in Antarctica,” climatologist Roy Spencer observed.
But it does show that like the rest of us chickens, scientists have feet of clay. Turney had told journalists that his expedition wanted to collect data that could be used to improve climate models. Too bad the folks who are supposed to predict climate decades into the future are guided by scientists who could not manage to avoid ice floes during a five-week trip…
“We were just in the wrong place at the wrong time,” Turney told Fox News. He believes the ship was stuck in old ice from a 75-mile-long iceberg that broke apart three years ago.
Fair enough. But there’s still the issue of ice volume. Climate changers usually warn about Arctic ice, which has been receding over the last few decades, but rarely address the overall growth of ice in Antarctica…
Turney told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. that his goal is to excite the public about science. As for climate change, “in the scientific community, it’s remarkably solid.” And “self-evident.”
He pushes a framework of science being data-driven and free from politics. And yet it’s hard to escape the suspicion that whatever the icebound researchers experience, they will frame it as proof that climate change is unassailable.
http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/saunders/article/Global-warming-researcher-gets-stuck-in-ice-5102720.php
Reply: Debra is the SF Chronicle’s token conservative. She gets these articles in ~ ctm (I know, the new policy is for mods to not identify themselves, but Anthony, you know what an iconoclast I be.).
According to the models they’re not stuck
A professor of climate change is caught in something that shouldn’t have been there.
And is saved by fossil fuels.
What else is new?
Felix says:
December 30, 2013 at 9:17 pm
Does any of this refute data, actual measurements, showing that the Southern Ocean is warming?
How about if you compare all the open water in the video of Mawson’s original 1912 expedition with the ice our valiant tourists are stuck in now? You know, the expedition Turney is trying to retrace?
http://aso.gov.au/titles/documentaries/antarctic-pioneers/clip2/
That should be sufficient proof the water around Cape Denison was much warmer in 1912. Now Turney’s group can’t even make land because of all the ice.
Felix says:
December 30, 2013 at 9:17 pm
Does any of this refute data, actual measurements, showing that the Southern Ocean is warming?
___________________________
What data showing the Southern Ocean warming?
8 days stranded in ice, initially called “Australia’s largest Antarctic science expedition” and after 3 failed resucue attampts by icebreakers (French, Chinese and Australian with authorities stating the ship is rated for ice up to 1.5m thick all the while knowing the ice is between 3m – 4m thick), the last rescue attempt is now of a “passenger/tourist ship” which has been called off due to bad weather? Yeah right Aussie MSM.
It’s all that “fast ice” ‘s fault – the floozy.
Maybe they could snow board behind the helicopter?
Calling Dr. Lew. Perhaps the good doctor could write a paper on the ratio of “thumbs up” to “thumbs down” responses to derisive comments regarding the plight of our ice bound heroes.
A quick estimate is somewhere in the order of 400-1.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531159/Antarctic-crew-build-ice-helipad-help-rescuers.html
Can you hear me Dr. Lew!
Now can we finally have some global warming extremists like these scam artists arrested for committing a fraud on Australia’s taxpayers?
I believe that ship has a good chance of being trapped until next year (summer 2014); weekly updates will drive the greens nuts.
What a way to end the year. I wish them all a safe trip back home with a fresh and healthy sense of skepticism for the New Year.
The Akademik Shokalskiy is missing from this morning’s Sailwx.info chart.
I hope that this is not bad news.
This story has to be a mistake; doesn’t it ?
Antarctica is currently basking in the Summer sunshine, with Mai-tais, and hula skirts.
Surely this ship is trapped in the Arctic Ocean. Not to worry; it is going to be ice free quite soon !
Well karma comes in all shapes and sizes.
The Spirit of Mawson dies as Antarctic pilgrims/tourists and their great leader – but not the crew – are to be rescued by helicopter
I have a notion that vessel owners, as well as tourist operators, are going to see a big increase in insurance premiums for ships that venture into Antarctic regions. It must be dawning on the underwriters this type of trip is a very high risk venture. We do not know how this incident will play out. We do know how the M/V Explorer fared (see photo at top). A small miracle no lives were lost then. (Different ocean, but only a favorable wind saved the Costa Concordia from moving away from land and rolling completely over.)
Luck is fickle. The two sinkings above had some. The next two, who knows.
So many comments Anthony, can you break them up in day to day?
Just saw this, lots of pictures and good reads in this news link.
Don’t know if it was already posted, too many comments to go through.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531159/Antarctic-crew-build-ice-helipad-help-rescuers.html
Enjoy
Antarctica is making New Daily Sea Ice Records again as of yesterday’s data.
yellow line..
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
Clitanic Al Gore Weather strikes !
Watch the disgusting MSM spin it like dying blowflies.
BBC are reporting that the Chinese Ice breaker has become stuck in the ice….
No helicopter or quick rescue likely now
Anthony, maybe we should create a reference page for AGW propaganda expedition fails.
Ann Bancroft.
The Caitlin Expedition. Many WUWT links.
Lewis Pugh. Most of this has been purged from the Internet. Time to fire up the wayback machine.
These are just the expeditions. There’s always the media categories too. The 10:10 video, the i-squared debate. Anthony. Whaddya think? It would be nice to have a central location to point out silliness.
One week on
Posted by Chris Turney, December 30, 2013
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/one-week-on/
The BBC are unsurprisingly not allowing comments on the story that the Chinese icebreaker is stuck, I wonder why?
😉
Josh will be busy for months on this there is just so much there that can and will be used to poke fun at them.
Talk about making a rod for your own back, but doing it in a way that puts others lives at risk for your own reasons is bad very bad.
I’m with
charles the moderator says:
December 31, 2013 at 1:52 am
Anthony, maybe we should create a reference page for AGW propaganda expedition fails.
Now that would be a long list.
James Bull
My fervent wish is that the egregious Geoffrey Lean, the Enviro Correspondent on the Daily Telegraph (UK) is on board. Although lean by name but fat by nature, he could certainly provide Andean-style nourishment for the rest if the stores give out…
BBC FORGETS BBC CORRESPONDENT
The BBC link
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558276
is very interesting.
In the middle of a very dramatic rescue.
(the Chinese ship, which has the rescue helicopter, is now itself caught in thick ice)
The BBC forgot that there is a BBC correspondent on board.
This must be a first in media history, since ancient Greece.
Remember those “Our correspondent reports…”
Only 5 days ago they were reporting proudly:
Science continues for trapped Australasian Antarctic expedition
By Andrew Luck-Baker
BBC World Service Discovery, East Antarctica
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25519059
ICE MORE SOLID THAN ICEBREAKER DECK.
DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING
[Expedition organizer, professor of climate change] Turney also responded to speculation from climate sceptics who have taken to social media sites in recent days to attack the scientific consensus on climate change, pointing out the apparent incongruity of there being so much sea ice around the Shokalskiy in the middle of the Antarctic summer.
“we are not trapped in new ice that’s been created because its cold,” said Turney. “This is very old, thick ice that’s been remobilized.”
versus, a few lines away
‘AAE members will be picked up on the ice next to the Shokalskiy and dropped off on a similar landing pad next to the Aurora Australis. The Chinese helicopter that will be used is too heavy to land on the Australian vessel’s deck.’
The ice, thus, is more solidly fused together than an ice breaker.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/31/antarctic-rescue-helicopter-to-evacuate-passengers-from-trapped-ship?commentpage=1
BBC reports that the scientists on board thought the ice was much thicker than usual for this time of year.
cynical_scientist says:
December 30, 2013 at 6:55 pm
Speaking from the Akademik Shokalskiy, exhibition leader Chris Turney told ONE News morale among the passengers was holding up despite news earlier this morning that the latest rescue attempt was unsuccessful.
Love the typo. How appropriate. It is officially an exhibition.
*****************************
Funny, I say “exhibition” three times and I can’t remember that other word that sounds like it…
I’m waiting for the group to be interviewed by the MSM when they hit land in Australia.
Even odds they’ll complain the rescue boats didn’t serve vegan ala the Greenpeace guy recently released by the Russians.
“we are not trapped in new ice that’s been created because its cold,” said Turney. “This is very old, thick ice that’s been remobilized.”
——
Satirising this becomes superfluous. I nominate “remobilized” as word of the month.
“This is very old, thick ice that’s been remobilized.”
So it’s not a weather event , this is “very” old thick ice. It must be due to climate change then.
Now which sort of climate change makes “very old thick ice”? Just asking Prof. Turney , just asking.
nebgrum says:
December 31, 2013 at 2:43 am
*************************
I suppose it must be comforting, in some way, to know you are not being squashed by new ice that was not created by cold.
Go out for a trip with Prof Chris(mas) Turkey and you are likely to find you’re stuffed.
After a few stiff Martinis the party revellers were reported to be shaken but not stirred.
Laurence Topham says he’s sick of Slush Puppyies and wants real milkshake. Bless !
Mike Jowsey says:
December 30, 2013 at 7:35 pm
andrewmharding says:
December 30, 2013 at 10:50 am
One question I would like an answer to is how did the icebreaker that went to rescue them only get to seven miles from them? Presumably they would have plotted the shortest ice-free route, there must be at least 49 square miles of ice several yards thick!!
Why don’t they get out and walk the seven miles to the rescue ship?
Because the ice is unstable and rather than being like ice on an ice rink it is actually moving and it would be extremely dangerous to walk on.
Mann’s hockey on ice?
byz says:
The BBC are unsurprisingly not allowing comments on the story that the Chinese icebreaker is stuck, I wonder why?
They’ve also started filing articles under “Asia” rather than “SciEnvironment”.
So, now apparently they do not see this “scientific” mission getting trapped by climate as “SciEnvironment”, it’s some quiet corner of international news.
Obviously viewers/readers wanting an update will know to go straight to the “Asia” section of their website. Chinese helicopter, init?
I do hope everyone gets out OK, particularly the crew who didn’t have a vested interest in trying to prove an ideological point with this voyage.
But I will be fascinated to see what effect this has on the participants if they survive – how will they be able to square the circle of Global Warming vs nearly being killed in a summer ice sheet? I wonder how many worms of doubt are currently eating their way into their brains?
The saga of the HHS INCONVENIENT TRUTH
Believe it or not there was an item on BBC News 24 this morning. Apparently “there is a ‘Russian Flagged ship’ stuck in Antarctic ice”. By some amazing coincidence “there is a BBC science correspondent” who (by all accounts) just happens to be on board.
The news item is short on two things, facts and truth.
The strange thing is he said that conditions on board were good, yet the bit of film showed him in a tent? The film wasn’t quite up to normal BBC quality but I think you could still make out the egg on his face.
Guardian censoring comments like crazy. It would take a heart of stone not to laugh!
OLD DATA says:
December 31, 2013 at 2:33 am
“BBC reports that the scientists on board thought the ice was much thicker than usual for this time of year.”
There ya go! That proves it! Global warming strikes again.
Posted by Chris Turney, December 30, 2013
“The thick chaotic surface we see around the Shokalskiy is consistent with the idea that this ice is several years old and is considerably more difficult to break through by icebreaker than single year ice…..”
I get the impression he thinks that this multi-year ice wasn’t there last year.
Think this might come back to haunt!
” Initially there were few applicants, so Chris Turney re-versioned Ernest Shackleton’s apocryphal advertisement:
“Wanted for hazardous journey. Low wages, bitter cold, long hours of complete darkness. Safe return doubtful. Honour and recognition assured.”
” I always loved that advert.”
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2013/s3899674.htm
Professor Chris Turney from the University of NSW is mounting the largest Australian science expeditions to the Antarctic with an 85-person team to try to answer questions about how climate change in the frozen continent might be already shifting weather patterns in Australia.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2013/s3898858.htm
Chris Turney is leading the team of scientists, meteorologists, marine ecologists, oceanographers, ice-core and tree-ring specialists.
Professor Turney says the hundreds of thousands of measurements made by Mawson have become critical to charting signs of global warming.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-28/chinese-icebreaker-unable-to-reach-stuck-ship/5176938
Harry Passfield says:
December 31, 2013 at 2:21 am
My fervent wish is that the egregious Geoffrey Lean, the Enviro Correspondent on the Daily Telegraph (UK) is on board. Although lean by name but fat by nature, he could certainly provide Andean-style nourishment for the rest if the stores give out…
======================================
If he is there, he will almost certainly be accompanied by his ‘colleague’, Loopy Lou (Louise Grey to the uninitiated). With nothing else to do, who knows what they might get up to. He could claim that it’s a survival technique – the more energy he expends, the thinner he gets and therefore less inviting he becomes to their hungry shipmates.
Oh dear, I’m now having trouble getting that thouight out of my head …
For those coming late to this story, it all started when Chris Turney decided he wanted to retrace the steps of an Antarctic exhibition mounted by the great Australian explorer Douglas Mawson a century previously.
The intention was to document modern day changes over those conditions seen a century previously.
Here is a book on Mawson’s original expedition which enables comparison to be drawn between the great explorers of the past and the modern day researchers.(H/T Climate4all)
http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/m/mawson/douglas/home/complete.html
Having said that, celebrity exploration of the poles is nothing new . In the 1920’s and 1930’s our ancestors thrilled to the exploits of Bill Bartlett on the Morrissey as he took celebrities to the arctic to gawp at the huge amount of warming. I wrote about that notable episode of climate change here;
http://judithcurry.com/2013/04/10/historic-variations-in-arctic-sea-ice-part-ii-1920-1950/
There is nothing new under the sun, the depressing thing being that many of the polar changes in the last century were very well documented. Bartlett made a career as a movie star by appearing on Pathe news reel film in cinemas about his arctic exploits, some of his journeys being funded by National Geographic..
tonyb
Hope that the crew on US icebreaker Polar Star, which is on its way for rescue, didn´t forget to bring 85 hockey sticks for the trapped research team.
Searching for the weather in the area gave this page, which shows a rather windy forecast for the next few days:
http://www.meteoexploration.com/expeditions/CapeDenison/
Looks like the helicopter option is now in doubt – from the Beeb…
Rescue for Antarctic ice-bound ship under threat
“Fifty-two passengers and four crew members were due to be evacuated by helicopter from China’s Xue Long ship as soon as conditions allowed.
However, the Xue Long has barely moved in a day and may be stuck in the ice.”
Seems that conditions in the Antarctic are far worse than being reported by the MSM. Careful ignoral???
I feel really sorry for those who have been suckered into believing the CAGW meme. Perhaps their experience will help change their views?
It seems that the scientific head of this expedition did more than just help setting up green technology business as a hobby:
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/12/antarctic-ice-swallows-boat-media-spin/#comment-1362280
his vested interests in the CO2-scare seem to be expand beyond his academic career…
What does a fire on a Chinese fishing vessel have to do with sea ice? Also, if you think the guy in the “tropical forest” has “full cold weather gear on” then you don’t know much about cold weather!
What really matters is this phenomenom:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png
GregM says:
December 31, 2013 at 3:53 am
Hope that the crew on US icebreaker Polar Star, which is on its way for rescue, didn´t forget to bring 85 hockey sticks for the trapped research team.
@Greg, I’d guess they have a boatload of sticks but nary a puck.
BTw this again proves that Australian Higher education has got a serious problem producing these second rate “agenda” scientists. Hopefully they will simply disappear with the Abbot administration slowly but surely LOL
“Since 2010 it has not been possible to access Mawsons Huts by sea so there is some chance that we will also be stopped from accessing the huts. However we do have remote controlled drones and over-ice vehicles onboard our vessel to improve our chances of access…….In other words the outcome is highly uncertain……..”
http://expeditionsonline.com/tour-44/spirit-of-mawson-akademik-shokalskiy
“climatereason says:
December 31, 2013 at 3:50 am
There is nothing new under the sun, the depressing thing being that many of the polar changes in the last century were very well documented. Bartlett made a career as a movie star by appearing on Pathe news reel film in cinemas about his arctic exploits, some of his journeys being funded by National Geographic..
tonyb”
What is “NEW” and different from those times and since the advent of the internet is mobile communications and instant access, Twitter and Viber etc. The internet was a major explosion in “information age”, BUT mobile access to information is instant and vastly larger in coverage. It’s technology!
The Bible was hand-written at one time thus limited access. Then the printing press was invented enabling many more people to have access to it.
While speaking to the missing BBC correspondent, the expedition exhibition by Prof. Christmas Turkey says that the Academic Shockski became immobilized on remobilized very old ice.
Many thanks to all I have plagiarized.
JB says:
December 31, 2013 at 4:09 am
What does a fire on a Chinese fishing vessel have to do with sea ice?
=============================
Nothing at all. But you knew that, didn’t you, because, conveniently just below the photograph, appears this paragraph (helpfully reproduced here so it’s right in front of your eyes).
‘We had to destroy the Antarctic in order to save it’ works for you, does it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558276
BBC now saying: “However, it may now be that all of those on board may have to wait for the US icebreaker, the Polar Star,” due to arrive in 10 days time. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558276
I just love that penguin in the lead photo at the above link to the BBC story. It’s as if he’s saying to camera, “Just look at these loons will you?”
From Expeditions Online – Tours / Spirit of Mawson: Akademik Shokalskiy:
“Day 28 – 4 January 2014
Port Of Bluff
We expect to arrive in the Port of Bluff early in the morning. After breakfast and completion of customs formalities, we will disembark, transfer by coach to downtown Invercargill or to Invercargill Airport. Please make your reservations for travel out of Invercargill after midday.
And so our expedition comes to an end. Less dramatically than Mawson and his men perhaps but we know that Antarctica will have touched you.”
I’m afraid that Antartica will have more than touched you…
Latest: “rescuing” Xue Long now appears herself to be stuck:
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558276
I cannot think of a better send-off to 2013 and climate change alarmism with this fiasco expanding across to 2014. How many icebreaking ships now are trying to rescue 1 ship? How many ships rescued Mawson?
The BBC article (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558276) goes to similar pains to emphasise the crew are in no danger. Given 3 failed rescues – and counting – this seems a stretch.
I repeat: these statements appear to be coming from the same people who said there wouldn’t be any ice there in the first place.
Happy New Year from the Akademik Shokalskiy.
Two quick points: Just watched the ABC 24-Hour News Channel and found out that the passengers of a ‘tourist ship’ stuck in ice in Antarctica have been rescued. Whew, that’s a relief, now let’s hope they can do the same for the Russian ship with our scientists on board concocting alibis and fraudulent explanations that blame CO2.
Secondly, I watched the video of the wimp who misses his milkshakes. Antarctic heroes, just ain’t what they used to be.
“Makes you wonder if climate scientists put water in the oven at home to try to make ice cubes.” – See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2013/12/29/veteran-meteorologist-calls-climate-scientists-claims-that-more-sea-ice-proves-global-warming-just-really-despicable/#sthash.f9sywiuI.dpuf
If everybody involved in this crisis is not very careful, this could be heading for a worst case scenario nightmare version of:
I assume all the professionals are fully aware of the risks and this is why they are sending in the heavy icebreakers.
From : http://expeditionsonline.com/tour-44/spirit-of-mawson-akademik-shokalskiy
“This AAE expedition has assembled a team of scientists who are world experts in the natural and physical sciences while also being passionate about science communication. ”
Passionate about science communication. Reminds me of the WUWT thread on science ethics.
It seems the scientists really did know what to expect. My apologies. These startlingly prescient statements are from the expeditions online page, all written into the itinerary well before setting sail.
“Extended period in the Commonwealth Bay, East Antarctic coastline area.”
“A truly white Christmas and Boxing Day”
“Given that we are closing in on the South Magnetic Pole we may see the lights of the Aurora Australis”
http://expeditionsonline.com/tour-44/spirit-of-mawson-akademik-shokalskiy
Thanks to mfo (31st Dec 2013 4:16 AM) for the link!
Felix says: @ December 30, 2013 at 9:17 pm
Does any of this refute data, actual measurements, showing that the Southern Ocean is warming?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
What warming? Graph Since 1990 the temperature has dropped like a rock.
Graph from: <a href="http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2008/07/24/southern-ocean/"Southern Ocean by Bob Tissdale. He has been looking at the ocean data for years.
His post HERE shows whre you got the idea the Southern Ocean is warming.
Bob goes on to prove that point and provides links to the paper and other discussions of the paper.
Note: Bob started as a believer until he started smelling something fish and began to investigate. Bob, like me is a retiree and receives no funding from the bureaucrats who are after your money or from Big Oil who is also after your money. )
Thankfully, at this point, the ill- fated voyage of the A.S. remains an incomplete metaphor for AGW.
Now, I AM concerned for their safety.
Weather will break on Jan 2 around 0000 local time:
http://www.yr.no/place/Antarctica/Other/Commonwealth_Bay/
It is highly unlikely that Xue Long is stuck. At any rate, she would probably be capable of launching her helo.
I am amazed no one has yet come up with the twitter hash tag #shipoffools. it seems so apt. if I was a twit, I’d have done it days ago.
Just had an email exchange with the Public Affairs Office on the Polar Star. There has been no official press release saying the Polar Star is going to be involved. If and when there is one it will be on the Polar Star web page.
http://www.uscg.mil/pacarea/cgcpolarstar/
[Thank you. Mod]
Rob Ricket says:
December 31, 2013 at 5:34 am
Weather will break on Jan 2 around 0000 local time:
http://www.yr.no/place/Antarctica/Other/Commonwealth_Bay/
___________________________
Unfortunately, that weather break is 180 degrees out of phase from helpful.
The weather break 12 hrs later, I meant… gale force winds and temp drop below 0C. Those are the conditions which trapped them.
There is a sufficient window for the required transport of passengers. Once in progress, each trip should only take 30 mins or less. We are talking about distances around 20 miles via helicopter.
“Was it simple incompetence of ignoring the signs and data at their disposal combined with “full steam ahead” fever?”. A fitting anaolgy for the AGW movement.
The fools on board of the Akademik Shokalskiy just can’t refrain from blathering about their spectacular failure. What a season’s greeting for mankind!
Happy AGW-free 2014, World!
The MSM is now reporting the Chinese ship has not moved in a day and their crew might need to be evacuated as well.
Rob Ricket says:
December 31, 2013 at 5:51 am
There is a sufficient window for the required transport of passengers. Once in progress, each trip should only take 30 mins or less. We are talking about distances around 20 miles via helicopter.
________________________________
Good points- the clear sky is probably most important aspect for rescue, now. Maybe crew/passengers have been engaged in finding/marking a safe landing pad nearby. It’s interesting to note that without the cloud cover, the temperature goes down, exactly as one would expect.
BTW, thanks for great link: http://www.yr.no/place/Antarctica/Other/Commonwealth_Bay/
It’s not just polar bears getting drown from Global Warming but people too…
re: redress says December 31, 2013 at 3:39 am
Think this might come back to haunt! et al
Good find! Thanks for the post!
Akademik Shokalskiy should now be thru celebrating the New Year if they are on Sidney time. Hope they have maintained their spirits with the available spirits.
The Guardian is funding, Snowden science? Free the 99%.
Steve from Rockwood says:
December 30, 2013 at 11:36 am
It’s going to be easy predicting the crisis cruise of 2014. Sea-level rise in the Maldives. What could go wrong on a tropical island?
———————————————
What could go wrong? They will run aground on a sandbank about 50 nm out and have to be rescued by a villager in a fishing boat – one at a time. Rowed 50 miles to a small island where they will have to be rescued again. There will be much fun; singing, dancing and hugging though.
Alan Robertson says:
December 30, 2013 at 9:53 pm
Felix says:
December 30, 2013 at 9:17 pm
Does any of this refute data, actual measurements, showing that the Southern Ocean is warming?
___________________________
What data showing the Southern Ocean warming?
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8239
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/364/1844/1657/F1.expansion.html
Rob Ricket says:
December 31, 2013 at 5:51 am
Not if the Chinese icebreaker Xue Long is also stuck in the ice.
From this article at http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558276 I find this sentence:
“However, if the Chinese vessel is also stuck and the Australian vessel cannot help it reach clear water, there will be no airlift.”
We are now looking at a potentially deadly situation. The Polar Star is at least 10 days out and pack ice may render these ships inoperable before rescue is achieved.
pat says:
December 30, 2013 at 4:44 pm
But Mr Greenfield, or Anthony Watts for that matter, made little attempt to explain the complex science involved with understanding Antarctic sea ice…
According to Skeptic Science article on Why is southern sea ice increasing…
Australian Greens senator elect for Victoria Janet Rice appears in this Guardian Youtube video published 30 December 2013 from on board the Akademik Shokalski. Janet has a scientific background with her honours thesis on where lows around Antarctica were born and died. She will bring to the new Senate a perceptive understanding of climate science and the need for strong climate action.
—————————————-
It gets funnier … So if these scientists know so much about Antarctica, how come they are all sitting on a boat sticking out of the ice along with with 2 Icebreakers (plus reinforcements on the way) and a helicopter out to rescue them … they must really know a lot. LOL
Xue Long is underway and making 3.6 knots. Captain Wang is smart enough to hold on station without getting trapped by sea ice.
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:144.4792/centery:-66.72189/zoom:8/mmsi:412863000
@RockyRoad, There is also the question of whether the deck can support weight of the Chinese ‘hele.’
A sad little paper really, on a par with Michael Mann’s tree-temperature work I would say … can’t address it more since this is OT.
.
Xue Long, Its been good to know yuh.
cedarhill says: @ December 31, 2013 at 2:40 am
I’m waiting for the group to be interviewed by the MSM when they hit land in Australia.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Remember what happened to the survivors of Benghazi attack.
The anomaly of water research will top quadrillions.
The link to the Long’s position and the Mawson station web cam are reporting winds under 20 knots.
The latest article on the BBC website here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25557017 is duplicitous. It claims “morale is high” yet also describes how the Russian crew are adversely affected by reports of bombings in Russia. I hope the scientists aren’t ignoring the plight of their crew.
The first sentence of the report is the most hilarious, though: “Morale among the scientists and research volunteers – or tourists – of the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013 is surprisingly high.” Yes, it genuinely says “or tourists”. So can we now call all climate scientists “tourists”? It would help us get through the dark winter nights….
Felix says:
December 31, 2013 at 6:32 am
Alan Robertson says:
December 30, 2013 at 9:53 pm
Felix says:
December 30, 2013 at 9:17 pm
Does any of this refute data, actual measurements, showing that the Southern Ocean is warming?
___________________________
What data showing the Southern Ocean warming?
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8239
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/364/1844/1657/F1.expansion.html
_______________________
The very chart you posted from the Royal Society shows that there is currently no “warming”. You might notice that the trend is temperature decreasing.
Furthermore, due to the manipulation of temperature data, there has been much controversy over reported warming around Antarctica, even from organizations which should know better than to play politics instead of science.
There’s really one simple question which undermines the entire southern warming meme… if the Southern Ocean is warming, why does sea ice increase every year?
Rob Ricket says:
December 31, 2013 at 6:41 am
Xue Long is underway and making 3.6 knots. Captain Wang is smart enough to hold on station without getting trapped by sea ice.
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:144.4792/centery:-66.72189/zoom:8/mmsi:412863000
__________________________
They’ve backed away a couple of klicks, so likely won’t get caught.
From their News page:
– – – – – – – – – – –
Polar Star News
DEEP FREEZE 2014!
POLAR STAR departed December 3rd for Operation Deep Freeze. Coming out of their three year reactivation period they embarked on Ice Trials this past summer and are now en route to McMurdo Station in Antarctica to help resupply their research station.
– – – – – – – – – –
From this link off their news page: http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/1994906/#
News Release
Date: Dec. 03, 2013
U.S. icebreaker deploys to McMurdo, Antarctica
Picture: Two tugboats escort Coast Guard Cutter Polar Star, a 399-foot Polar Class Icebreaker homeported in Seattle, through Elliott Bay after the cutter got underway from Coast Guard Base Seattle, Dec. 3, 2013. – See more at:
SEATTLE – Coast Guard Cutter Polar Star departed Coast Guard Base Seattle for Antarctica, Tuesday, in support of Operation Deep Freeze for the first time since 2006 with the task of resupplying the National Science Foundation Scientific Research Station in McMurdo.
For more than 50 years, Coast Guard icebreaker crews have deployed to Antarctica in support of Operation Deep Freeze. They will assist by creating a navigable shipping lane through the layers of ice in McMurdo Sound. Approximately eight million gallons of U.S. fuel will be sent to McMurdo residents through the channel and be delivered to Winter Quarters Bay. This fuel allows the Station to remain manned and ready during the freezing winter months.
This past summer, CGC Polar Star conducted sea trials in the Arctic to test all of the ship’s equipment and train the crew prior to embarking to Antarctica this winter. During the summer trip, CGC Polar Star spent weeks in the Beaufort Sea north of Barrow, Alaska, testing propulsion machinery, conducting emergency drills, and qualifying crewmembers in individual watchstations.
In preparation for CGC Polar Star’s Deep Freeze Deployment, the crew overhauled many pieces of equipment from the bridge to the engine room and successfully completed a number of assessments to achieve their fully reactivated status.
Polar Star is a 399-foot Polar Class Icebreaker with a 140-person crew, homeported in Seattle. The cutter is recently out of a three-year, $90 million overhaul, which is part of the Coast Guard’s plan to reactivate the heavy icebreaker.
– See more at: http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/1994906/#sthash.3RzAtP43.dpuf
They need this guy..
JimH says: @ December 31, 2013 at 3:11 am
…. I wonder how many worms of doubt are currently eating their way into their brains?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You are making the bad assumption that the peddlers of
GloBULL WarmingerrrClimate Changeerrr Weather Weirding (is that the latest term or did it morph again) actually believe the propaganda they are spewing.From Climategate 2.0 Michael Mann shows that climate alarmism is a ’cause’ and not science:
http://expeditionsonline.com/tour-44/spirit-of-mawson-akademik-shokalskiy
“Given that we are closing in on the South Magnetic Pole we may see the lights of the Aurora Australis”
Actually, with a bit of luck they may in fact be the lights in the piano bar of the Aurora Australis
damn, they _knew_ all this was going to happen before they set out 😉
Tenuc says:
December 31, 2013 at 3:54 am
I feel really sorry for those who have been suckered into believing the CAGW meme. Perhaps their experience will help change their views?
Sadly, most probably not. Regardless of how they came to their CAGW beliefs, there is a will to Believe which takes over rational thought. The curious response of True Believers, in the face of facts and reality contradicting their beliefs is to Believe even harder. They become even more irrational, in other words.
I wouldn’t feel sorry for them though. They made their beds.
“Stupid is as stupid does, Mrs. Blue.”
-Forest Gump
I noted the following comment at Bishop Hill:
Comment at the Graun by lmxly1:
“… I have heard from friends on board that the captain saw the weather coming and wanted to get out ASAP while the ship was only 2 miles from open water. But the scientists fumbled their gear on return and took much longer, hence this fiasco! And it reminds me of the old Antarctic maxim – Hurry up….or wait!!”
So it appears that Turney probably is responsible for this. He’s certainly got some ‘splaining to do….
BTW, I meant Public Affairs OFFICER, not office.
Don
Alan Robertson: “There’s really one simple question which undermines the entire southern warming meme… if the Southern Ocean is warming, why does sea ice increase every year?”
It’s simple: because global warming !
Hotter = AGW, cooler = AGW.
Less ice and snow = AGW; more ice and snow = AGW.
It must be obvious to anyone but those in the pay of Suzanne Goldbergs billion dollar dunial industry that whatever happens it’s the result of AGW as predictied by climate science and GCMs.
Now if you will just sign over all your personal wealth, that of your children and grandchildren and sign your whole familily into bondage for the next three generations , perhaps we can finally make some progress on saving the planet BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE.
It doesn’t add up… says: “So it appears that Turney probably is responsible for this.”
Prof Chris(mas) Turkey will be spending his time stuck in the ice concocting his excuses. He’s already suggested how global warming causes more ice, so he’s well on his way.
negrum says:
December 31, 2013 at 5:09 am
“If everybody involved in this crisis is not very careful, this could be heading for a worst case scenario nightmare version of:”
The last pic where the big green crane seems to topple over looks totally fake. They took the crane from the pic before and rotated it. Wheels and perspective look identical; the four head lamps look all botched up because the rotation caused interpolated pixel values.
There is only one molecule, albeit within a short range, expands as it cools. This $Q will launch the next wave of research. Too funny…
I see the BBC not only refuses to acknowledge that the tourists are climate scientists, but they have NOT allowed any commentary, on any of their story coverage. Still trying to control the story and divert criticism. Reality will not bend to the spin. GK
Valuable comments on Tallbloke and paper cite. Thanks.
Chinese rescue ship stuck in the ice too????? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558276#
DirkH says:
December 31, 2013 at 7:37 am:
“The last pic where the big green crane seems to topple over looks totally fake”
—–
Thanks. I didn’t pick up on that one. You are quite right – should have checked with snopes: http://www.snopes.com/photos/accident/crane.asp. The last picture is photoshopped in. The first eight seem genuine and they probably should have left it at that – the message would still be clear.
REMF’s out at sea caught in their own lies by ice.
Front line men on Polar Star will go unnamed and if they tell the truth of what they find early retirment and or no promotions.
The ice knows, we know, the msm will lie to their ice bound end.
It is all about power and taxes to run the machine.
Not be deterred by reality Grauiad gets 2014 off to a flying start with “at least 4C by 2100”.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/31/planet-will-warm-4c-2100-climate
5C .. do I hear 5C? 5C at the back, do I hear 6C?
It’s now official: Chris Turney is unequivocal in blaming the 20 miles of ice surrounding the Shokalskiy on Climate Change. From the Guardian:
“The event is likely to be a result of long-term climate change that is happening in this part of the world. ”
Article: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/31/antarctic-rescue-helicopter-to-evacuate-passengers-from-trapped-ship
Extract showing full quote:
“There’s a misconception here – we are not trapped in new ice that’s been created because its cold,” said Turney. “This is very old, thick ice that’s been re-mobilised. It was attached to another part of the continent and has broken out and, with the south-easterly winds we’ve had, has pushed it up against the coast … and pinned us in.”
The event is likely to be a result of long-term climate change that is happening in this part of the world. When the 120km-long iceberg, B09B, came through the area a few years ago it knocked the tongue off the nearby Mertz glacier, which itself is 120km long. The iceberg grounded on the sea bed in Commonwealth Bay causing the sea around it to lock up with ice attached to the continent.
“There’s no Mertz glacier tongue to hold back the sea ice that broke out in the past weeks,” said Turney. “Because there’s ice in Commonwealth Bay, where we’re near, that old ice couldn’t go anywhere apart from here. It’s unfortunate circumstances.”
This explanation is the same one as he has given in his Spirit of Mawson website blog post yesterday, 30th December 2013, after a sudden 3-day posting hiatus when the most important events were unfolding:
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/blog/
Turney’s blog post shows before and after satellite pictures of the area (20th and 27th Dec) and these are used supposedly to explain the fact that all the sea ice had broken away from fast ice the other side of the Mertz Glacier and had nowhere to go but into Commonwealth bay. I suspect that some ice did break off and contributed to the situation. However I think I can see spin here just like everywhere else.
The 10-day-old satellite pictures that had apparently only just arrived on the day of the posting are quite difficult to interpret. They don’t show exactly the same area of Commonwealth Bay in both pictures and they are low resolution so you can’t see the labelling or the legend. Turney’s explanation is unhelpful and there is no link to the source at ACE CRC. So I went to the site myself, linked below, and found it rather lacking- certainly no satellite data page.
http://seaice.acecrc.org.au
I’m left with a distinct impression that the details of Turney’s line of argument in this explanation-via-Global-Warming is untenable. I therefore think it’s worthy of an in-depth investigation at WUWT to root out the truth behind the ice break-out and where it went, perhaps using satellite data that is full resolution and clearly shows the whole area of Commonwealth Bay in both photos. I think we may find that they were simply sailing into denser and denser floating ice which then closed around them with a change of wind direction. The breakout ice might have just added to the periphery of this mass- after all, the ‘after’ satellite photo is from the 27th December, not from the 24th when they were iced in. Why show the situation 3 days later and not at the time or one day later? And why not show all of Commonwealth Bay in the ‘before’ picture.
If WUWT doesn’t knock this right on the head, Turney or others will be presenting it as science fact, possibly as soon as early March 2014 at The International Glaciogical Society (IGS) 4th sea ice symposium in Hobart, Tasmania from (10-14 March 2014). That is, if they can get to Tasmania before March.
Scute
The Master of the Akademik Shokalskiy is probably too embarrassed to update his location. The last received position is 8th December leaving Bluff, NZ.
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/index/ships/all/page:1/shipname:Akademik%20Shokalskiy
USCGC Polar Star departed Honolulu en route to service US bases in Antarctica on 18th December.
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/7367471/vessel:POLAR_STAR
Xue Long is trolling back & forth. http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/index/ships/all/page:1/shipname:XUE%20LONG
Aurora Australis is also reticent about its current position.
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/index/ships/all/page:1/shipname:AURORA%20AUSTRALIS
“We just have no idea what the weather will do,” expedition leader Chris Turney told ABC News via Skype. Another priceless quote from a Bishop of CAGW. We can’t predict the weather for the next day but let us tell you about climate.
“The event is likely to be a result of long-term climate change that is happening in this part of the world. ”
How mysterious.
Long-term climate change, that has yet to occur, is responsible for events today?
It’s one thing to predict future events as and after the climate changes.
But as of today the global climate has not been measured or shown to have changed since whenever.
All of the observed tiny fluctuations in all things nature do not amount to any indication of any
meaningful long term climate change at all.
Yet, even here in Oregon we have enviro-worriers telling us to “look out side it’s right in front of your denying eyes, Can you not see it?”.
Mr Green Genes says:
December 31, 2013 at 4:35 am
JB says:
December 31, 2013 at 4:09 am
What does a fire on a Chinese fishing vessel have to do with sea ice?
=============================
“Nothing at all. But you knew that, didn’t you, because, conveniently just below the photograph, appears this paragraph (helpfully reproduced here so it’s right in front of your eyes).”
I am glad to see you have such a concern for the Antarctic Environment … hopefully, you will lobby to stop oil exploration in the Arctic too … thanks 🙂
Maheshwari et al, 2013, concluded that “However, in general, the Southern Ocean as a whole is showing a weak interannual cooling trend in SST. http://www.hindawi.com/isrn/oceanography/2013/392632/
Likewise RSS also shows a weak troposheric cooling at the rate of -0.13 kelvin/decade : http://joannenova.com.au/2013/10/antarctic-sea-ice-still-at-record-high-where-is-springtime-melt/
Bob Tisdale plots a very strong drop in Southern Ocean SST around 2007: http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/14-southern.png
The drop in Southern Ocean SST is associated with record westerly winds and current along the Antarctic circumpolar current, the by far the worlds strongest and the only one that connects all ocean basins.. The increase in current speed is also causing record upwelling of cold water. The record sea ice is causing record deep water formation rates due to salt rejection and dense water creation . The AMOC or the giant ocean conveyor belt begins in the southern ocean. Look for the cold to come to us in the near future.
Also the White House will have directed the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Navy, the National Weather Service to aid said loons on excuses using the data they have to make up a reason for this major fail.
Some of the info Chris Turney is using most likely comes from one or more of these souces.
This CO2 world tax is a big deal to big commie goverment.
“The event is likely to be a result of long-term climate change that is happening in this part of the world. ” – Turney
Prof Turney knows everything about the ice now. How did he manage to get stuck in it?
This guy has some disturbing conflicts of interest that may have led him to inadvertently cause this massive crisis. It seems fairly obvious that this Antarctic PR tour was planned to promote his side venture in Carbonscape. It’s in Turkey’s best interest to call everything “climate change.” This guy needs to be called on the carpet by authorities in Australia.
JB says:
December 31, 2013 at 8:14 am
“I am glad to see you have such a concern for the Antarctic Environment … hopefully, you will lobby to stop oil exploration in the Arctic too … thanks :)”
JB, think for a moment. Skeptics are the ones who DON’T think the poles will be ice-free. Ergo, drilling for oil in the arctics will stay extremely expensive and hazardeous. It’s the least of our worries. All the nations gung-ho on exploiting the arctis might find their dreams crushed.
We should record this topic for safekeeping. And we should do the same with the AR5 draft, as most probably it will just suddenly disappear as most inconvenient truths just disappear. There are almost endless lists of AR5 authors that are listed in those drafts. Those are the people upholding the hoax with their integrity and reputation. Well, they did their trade, and I’ll keep my copy in case any of those lunatics happens to be in charge of my son’s future. Those people deserve to keep a black blotch in their CVs. Forever.
The joke is on us if any of those entitled bastards ever get in charge of anything. Morons.
“It’s fantastic – I love it when the ice wins and we don’t,” said expedition marine ecologist Tracy Rogers. “It reminds you that as humans, we don’t control everything and that the natural world – it’s the winner here”
No you’re going to be rescued by helicopter, using a lot of CO2 just like you ship used a lot of CO2 and so did the Ice breaker that tried to rescue you. So we humans win again take that nature.
DirkH says:
December 31, 2013 at 8:22 am.
Dirk … there is a fair bit of seismic exploration in the Arctic often involving icebreakers as support vessels. I know, I’ve been there doing it.
re: Perry says December 31, 2013 at 8:02 am
On position reports: Some of these vessels may be equipped with VHF-band only radio position transmitters (vs Inmarsat satellite), and this requires a land-based station/infrastructure to receive the position report and forward that info to data aggregaters for display on various websites.
So, one must be within range of suitable land station in order to ‘report’ position; this is probably why Polar Star and the Russian ship cease to show a course beyond 30 to 50 miles from shore (VHF possessing what is said to be ‘line-of-sight’ radio propagation characteristics) given antenna heights on the shore station and the vessel.
.
Just noticed that the bow paint (name) had been redone… Nice photoshop touch… ;;)
Anybody want to crowd fund me for “Party at the Pole”?
Scute says: December 31, 2013 at 7:54 am
You may be correct in the way that you think that they will play this.
However it is very easy to refute, because it does not matter how much Ice gets moved around it doesn’t make more of it.
As shown by all the various ice data repositories the overall Ice extent has broken records during 2013, so there is more Ice even in the Summer.
Did Al Gore find passage on (the newly-named) “An Inconvenient Truth” as a stowaway?
Getting stuck in the ice a week after summer begins would indicate he might have.
The “Gore Effect” even stops icebreakers. Wow!
ldd says:
December 30, 2013 at 8:07 pm
http://io9.com/what-happened-the-night-niagara-falls-stopped-flowing-1017625850
The time the wind and iced conspired to stop Niagara Falls for 2 days in March of 1848.
1848+172 = 2020
1848+202= 2050
I think that about “bounds” the longer solar cycle range of estimates. Mark your calendar for an interesting test of “The Sun Dun It” hypothesis…
Scute says:
December 31, 2013 at 7:54 am
So recklessly charging ahead in spite of adverse conditions is what Turney is calling “Climate Change”?
I’d call this disaster the result of abject stupidity or egotistical hubris.
Maybe Turney is claiming this part of the world has never seen ice before.
Either way, Turney blames Climate Change instead of taking responsibility.
Robert in Calgary says:
December 30, 2013 at 6:55 pm
I was curious about the capabilities of the Polar Star, as the Chinese and Australian rescue ships are reported to be limited to breaking through 1.5m ice. According to Wikipedia:
I did not see a mention of what speed can be managed through the thicker ice. From the same source, performance figures are:
I was not able to find a current location for Polar Star except it was deployed December 3rd to support routine supply operations for McMurdo Station. The USCG site for the ship lists current news as:
The Polar Star has a sister ship the Polar Sea which is no longer in service following what is described as a “massive engine failure” suffered in 2010. The Coast Guard apparently has plans to “dismantle” rather than “scrap” her. The Polar Star herself just completed a major ($57 million) refit early this year and the McMurdo deployment is her first actual mission after returning to service. Since 2010, the US has had no icebreakers of this class in service — perhaps the augury of global climate models convinced naval planners there will be no need for them in the near future. The refit should keep the Polar Star in service for another 8-10 years and the Coast Guard is pursuing approval for a new ship. Maybe the US Congress will consider revoking the wind turbine subsidies to pay for it.
So it would appear the Polar Star could reach and rescue the Akademik Shokalskiy were she dispatched to do so. But if you really want to get through a lot of ice in a hurry, you need one of the Russian nuclear ice-breakers — unlimited power to keep the cabins warm and the Vodka cold and almost completely carbon neutral! But alas, according again to Wikipedia the Arctic class of nuclear icebreakers (including the Yamal) depend on cold polar waters to cool their reactors and cannot even transit the tropical seas to reach Antarctica. Perhaps one could be towed through warmer seas with reactors operating at minimum power, but this would increase both the cost and the time required to get one where it is needed.
So there is no option to rescue the Akademik Shokalskiy without burning a lot of fossil fuel.
I suspect once the crew and passengers have been evacuated, the owners and insurers of the Akademik Shokalskiy will decide it is not worth the cost to charter an icebreaker of the Polar Star class to recover their ship. I also suspect insurance rates for these Antarctic “research” trips will rise sharply as a result.
Which will not of course stop these publicity junkets; just take a bigger bite out of the taxpayer to fund them.
Happy New Year to all, including those onboard the Akademik Shokalskiy. I sincerely hope they all get out without injury along with everyone dispatched to rescue them. That they emerge any wiser from the experience is probably too much to hope for.
The latest from the BBC reported on board is that perhaps the Chinese icebreaker is also stuck. They want the Chinese and Australian breakers along side each other for the helicopter shuttle. The Australian boat may try to get to the Chinese.
6am Wednesday 1st NZT
National Radio reports helicopter rescue may be delayed for 24 hours until weather conditions improve.
Aurora will eventually take the “tourists” on board, then continue with its resupply schedule to McMurdo, then return to Hobart.
It could be several weeks till the “tourists” arrive back in Hobart.
JB says:
December 31, 2013 at 8:32 am
The vast majority of oil producers support the Global Warming meme–they certainly don’t fund the likes of WUWT or anybody else opposed to such folly.
And now you have one of the reasons why.
“The event is likely to be a result of long-term climate change that is happening in this part of the world. ” – Turney
Well done professor. And what kind of long-term climate change causes more ice ? Warming or cooling ?
With nearly 500 posts it doesn´t hurt to add this classic:
Everything is worse than we thought!
The frightened ones aboard the boat
were disappointed too
they’d hoped to eat a Christmas bird
with passengers and crew
none had dared to mention
that most obvious of rhymes
Dr. Turney, Christmas Turkey
wasn’t fit for trying times
they’d failed to heed the warning
that ice floes were on the loose
instead of Christmas turkey
all they got was one big goose
“The event is likely to be a result of long-term climate change that is happening in this part of the world. ”
——
I wonder if Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change will start replacing Acts of God in insurance contracts?
should read, above:
Dr. Turney, Christmas Turkey
so sorry
[ Fixed. -ModE ]
Imagine how differently this “exhibition” would have been reported on by the MSM, had they not been trapped in the ice. They would have been hailed as “brave scientists” instead of being referred to as “tourists”, and their “findings” showing how much melting etc. had taken place would have been trumpeted far and wide as further “proof” of disasterous manmade climate change taking place. Of course, that was their plan all along, but oh no, that ultimate of all den#ialists mother nature had other plans.
Can the Warmist herds hear the worldwide laughter now?
One thing can be trusted in regard to this matter there local. The Ice. Trust it for it is real.
These others and what they say and do not do much.
If the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. If you are a professor of climate change, every event looks like a result of climate change.
An idea for the UNSW: establish a professorship of season’s change.
JB says:
December 31, 2013 at 8:32 am
“Dirk … there is a fair bit of seismic exploration in the Arctic often involving icebreakers as support vessels. I know, I’ve been there doing it.”
Well of course. They all bet on the warmists being correct, like Turney did. But nobody operates a drilling rig in pack ice. Because it’s not possible.
Besides, you should look into the spill detection systems that are mandatory in Norway and have not been mandatory in the Gulf of Mexico during the Macondo spill.
And BTW, there’s a ton of natural oil spills all the time everywhere. Human caused spills are only relevant if they approach the amount of natural spills. I don’t know if there are natural oil spills in the arctis. But what are you gonna do about them? Quick; panic, protest against natural oil spills in front of Barack H. Obama’s exterritorial swampland compound.
Aah; nothing like a helicopter flight to test the old ‘mal de mer’ resistance. Brisk winds, crowded chopper, bounces for ever gust…
I wonder how many will keep their penguin down for the whole flight?
‘This old ice, broken free elsewhere and blown here just to make us semi qualified parasitic scientists look like bloddy fools…’
Ah, yes Dr. Turkey; did you notice that the old ice is un-melted sea ice? Sea ice is sea ice no matter how many times you try to skate the issue. If it was global pwning AGW, wouldn’t the ice have melted than go on vacation with you?
Now, how much of the ‘fresh water’ below the ice did you drink? This question is more serious than you apparently suspect. Have you noticed any pink ice elephants or flying penguins? Perhaps as your co-sponsor’s hand went numb in the open air and you claimed it was so warm it’s raining, you noticed that the gritty and cold rain bounced?
Has anyone else noticed that the CAGW true faithful are more than a little blind to reality and facts?
negrum says:
December 31, 2013 at 9:18 am
“I wonder if Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change will start replacing Acts of God in insurance contracts?”
Acts Of Climate Change, very good! Like Drones have replaced Zeus’ lightning bolts. Even called Hellfire, how apt. That makes Barack H. Obama the Lightbringer.
heh! Glenncz: Have you noticed the new name on the ship in the picture above?
Good one!
6.30am Wednesday 1st NZT
National Radio reports Xue Long (Snow Dragon) trapped in ice, helicopter uplift delayed indefinitely until Aurora can break through to free Xue Long.
This could never be made into a film, no-one would believe it.
negrum says:
I wonder if Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change will start replacing Acts of God in insurance contracts?
Most likely. And with the treaty they were trying to concoct in Warsaw last month, developed nations will be the underwriters. Just a twist on the usual arrangements tho’ , no premiums, just payouts.
What’s not to like?
Dirk H says:
And BTW, there’s a ton of natural oil spills all the time everywhere.
___________________________
And of course there are the intentional oil spills, millions of miles of them that we call asphalt roads.
“glenncz says: December 31, 2013 at 3:14 am
The saga of the HHS INCONVENIENT TRUTH”
since it’s russian registered merchant vessel that should be
M.V. INCONVENIENT PRAVDA
Background: In a comment over at Climate, Etc. I called Dr. Titley a lair (and explained why) for his comments during the recent congressional climate hearings (also involving Dr. Spencer & Dr. Pielke) and had my comment censored/removed. JC said its was a comment without content and not in keeping with her policy of civil discourse.
So I just posted the following:
————————————
I was hoping to find a thread on the global warming Antarctica “science” expedition stuck in ice and unreachable by three icebreakers to date.
One would be tempted to call out its leader (Dr. Turney) as a liar of sorts, but such observations are of course censored on this site (as Dr. Titley reminds us). Unfortunately, if public discourse continues in the direction of NOT being able call out things as they are, you are left with the party lying believing such behavior is a perfectly workable mode of operation.
Much as Obama continues to lie without recourse, there have been several recent events in the media that reflect where such unbalanced “civil” discourse leads. AGW has built an entire movement on the belief that it is acceptable to manipulate the truth, data and even history for its own objectives. Many who sat on the fence during this period in history now want only “civil” discourse to ensue.
In other words, when you follow the Mawson expedition of 100 years ago where historic records/pictures show no ice and clear access to the shore for his wooden ships by and expedition 100 years later to observe the igreat loss of sea ice in an unprecedented [global] warming world and become trapped in ice of sufficient thickness that even three icebreakers can’t rescue you…
..It’s still not “ok” in civil discourse to call out the AGW movement as a lie and those who foster its underpinnings as liars.
Compare these two statements from the latest BBC report:
“The Australian icebreaker, the Aurora Australis, is holding its position in clear water beyond the mass of pack ice trapping us. Its two attempts to reach us yesterday failed.”
“However, the Chinese ship, the Xue Long, may now be trapped itself. It has barely moved position in a day, according to one of the leaders of the Australian Antarctic Expedition 2013, Prof Chris Turney.”
The notional reports the Chinese ship is stuck is nothing more than poor speculation by Turney, because it hasn’t moved much, which is exactly what one would expect it to do in bad weather with no clear course of action.
Hope that all ends well and with little drama – else we could be looking at GLOBAL WARMING’S FIRST MARTYRS! And that would be a bad, bad, thing.
These Fools out to be made to ROW home, once they hit open water.
@Felix
How did Prof. Turney’s “old ice” survive your “warming” Southern Ocean for “a few years”, as he states? Just wondering.
According to the video blogs here
http://www.youtube.com/user/christurney/videos
One called “A day in the life on the Shokalskiy”, there are children on-board this ship (or at least one). Now I’m beginning to get angry at the hubris and carelessness of Turney and the other “scientists”.
E.M.Smith says:
December 31, 2013 at 8:51 am
Yep, will be keeping an eye on this for as long as I’m around, but may not make it to 2050 myself – but at least the kids know what to ‘look out’ for when the tax and power grabbers conspire on their next scare tactics.
In the Arctic, sea ice is melting because of global warming; in Antarctica, sea ice is not melting because of global warming. Simple no?
Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. . . . . . They have met their enemy, and They are Them. It’s a damn shame that their necks aren’t depending on wind and solar powered Icebreakers and Helicopters.
This is how the Gene Pool becomes polluted – they will be saved.
In an Ayn Rand novel, they would be less fortunate.
How does Prof. Turney’s “old ice” grow from 1-2 meters thick when his boat got stuck to about 5 meters now? Just wondering.
This link presents a map of the Southern Ocean showing the trend in SST from 1982 to 2010.
http://www.hindawi.com/isrn/oceanography/2013/392632/fig5/
The authors conclude that ” From both these images, a very important observation can be made; that is, the part of the Southern Ocean in the East Antarctic sector is experiencing a significant warming while the West Antarctic sector, a more significant cooling, in general. However, as a whole, the area experiencing cooling over the entire Southern Ocean is larger than that experiencing warming.”
OLD DATA says:
December 31, 2013 at 4:11 am
GregM says:
December 31, 2013 at 3:53 am
Hope that the crew on US icebreaker Polar Star, which is on its way for rescue, didn´t
forget to bring 85 hockey sticks for the trapped research team.
@Greg, I’d guess they have a boatload of sticks but nary a puck.
OK then, 84 hockey sticks will probably do. They could always use that Turkey for puck?
Stand by for new Paper: “Molecular Alteration of Water by Global Warming Increases Temperature at Which Ice Forms” Shityunot & Konstantlie, et. al.
Why don’t they just keep cool and enjoy the Antarctic summer before it gets really hot come late January? Shouldn’t the ice be melting by then?
BCC is now reporting that the Chinese vessel appears to also be stuck in the Antarctic sea ice so a helicopter transfer to the Chinese vessel is no longer a viable plan. Plan C is to wait until the US icebreaker the Polar Star comes in roughly 10 days to free both ships.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558276
“Fifty-two passengers and four crew members were due to be evacuated by helicopter from China’s Xue Long ship as soon as conditions allowed.
However, the Xue Long has barely moved in a day and may be stuck in the ice.
The research vessel Akademik Shokalskiy has been trapped for nearly a week with 74 scientists, tourists and crew.
However, if the Chinese vessel is also stuck and the Australian vessel cannot help it reach clear water, there will be no airlift.
Under the initial plan, the remaining crew members would have stayed on board until another, more powerful US icebreaker arrived in up to 10 days’ time, the BBC’s Andrew Luck-Baker reports from on board the Akademik Shokalskiy
However, it may now be that all of those on board may have to wait for the US icebreaker, the Polar Star, he adds.“
@scute:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssd&inv=0&t=cur
shows -2 C water around Antarctica… so either it’s frozen naturally, or that “below zero” part of the map is wrong.
Turney said it was fresh water, after all, so ought to freeze at -2C…
7.15am Wednesday 1st NZT
National Radio reports that Xue Long has radioed it is trapped in ice.
It appears doubtful that Aurora will attempt to break a passage to Xue Long, now waiting on Polar Star to arrive in approximately 10 – 12 days.
The stupidity of some people defies belief.
E.M.Smith, “Turney said it was fresh water”?
Turney has shown no expertise that would indicate he could identify fresh water. He’s a climate scientist. He deals in theoretical models. But water is a physical material.
Physical materials are all listed under the bracket of “not model”.
Like backsides and arm joints.
They had better rescue Christmas Turnkey, Grant Hose & all the media whores from the bar before the rising seas submerge them.
What they need is the A(gw) Team Who can build a bow mounted greenhouse and feed that huge CO2 funnel away from the sky into the greenhouse. The ice will be gone in a day.
Who knows who carries the responsibility for cruising into this ice? The captain? Professor Turney?
The University of NSW for trip planning? Do they pay the expenses?
The good thing is half that of the guests are paying members, picking up half of the final check, we can assume.
Revkin’s Dot earth blog at http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/31/rescue-effort-for-trapped-antarctic-voyage-disrupts-serious-science/?_r=0 has a good column with Email notes from someone directly impacted by the Aurora Australis’ interrupted unload to go rescue the Spirit of Mawson exhibition. The ship was only 1/3 unloaded when the call came in.
The window of access in the Antarctic is small, I’m sure this fiasco will have major impact for the rest of the summer.
eddi says:
December 31, 2013 at 9:41 am
“..It’s still not “ok” in civil discourse to call out the AGW movement as a lie and those who foster its underpinnings as liars”
—–
I understand your frustration, but calling someone a liar is an ad hominem and detracts from your argument. It belongs in the political and legal arena (plenty of sites for that) and not in scientific discussion. One reason for this is that lying is very difficult to prove – due to weaselling – and another is that the term is too easy to misuse. it is better to focus on reasoned debate and at least a minimum of courtesy.
There are plenty of deluded followers and calling them liars will only confirm them in their faith, since technically they are not lying, they are merely mistaken (in our skeptical opinion) and your accusation would be false and counter-productive. Someone lying to themself is not a crime and criminalising it brings us very quickly to Orwell’s 1984 🙂
@weltklima, Those paying their own tab will sue. Then those on governments’ tab will sue. Finally those who rescued the tourists will sue. Perhaps everybody should be named sue?
I wonder who is tasked with censoring all outgoing comm transmissions. With a dedicated media center it would be natural to interview the Capitan now and then.
Clay Marley says:
December 31, 2013 at 9:48 am
Just one, as far as I know, the son of Chris Turney. Robbie seems pretty sensible, some of his writing is at http://www.spiritofmawson.com/blog/ . I suspect he’ll do okay.
“The @GdnAntarctica winter men’s clothing catalogue has just arrived…”
And if you don’t find what you’re looking for there, try the J. Peterman catalog:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_feKCUOgjz_M/TPgFAxEUSZI/AAAAAAAACV8/47Ymot8qpsM/s1600/George_Costanza_Hat.jpg
A bit of balanced reporting beginning to creep in now….
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/12/31/global_warming_researcher_gets_stuck_in_ice_121091.html
I have still not, as of yet, sat through watching James Cameron’s Titanic…but I’ll bet that a crucial scene is missing:
The captain has a drink sitting at the helm. The iceberg is growing in the distance. He glances at his drink, in which the ice is 1/8 above the surface.
He then steals a glance at the iceberg.
Back to the drink.
Back again to the iceberg.
The captain shrugs, fails to add 2 and 2, and rushes headlong into disaster.
But, as Anthony mentions, he wasn’t availed of all of the tools these chuckleheads have.
And yet – they’re stuck in ice that, according to their manifestos, simply shouldn’t exist.
I just hope these latte swilling, short sighted, idiot-savants and their respective employers/organizations bear the full fiscal responsibility for their rescue. Most likely though, the “grey men” behind the project will dip into their ill gotten gains to bail out the expedition/exhibition, and also not onlytry to suppress the PR disaster but spin it into a CAGW victory.
I suspect that the editorial staff and policy shapers at the sponsering media organizations are having some sleepless nights, one can only imagine the back room e-mail and phone calls. The comments at the Guardian are hilarious, they give me hope.
@EM Smith. Thanks for the link!
@warren in New Zealand. Thanks for the radio reports which seem to be ahead of all the other media.
@Alan Watt. Thanks for the Polar Star info. I’ll doubtless be referring to that in 12 days’ time….or will it be 16 days? At 21 mph she will need all her fuel to get there and back to the US and have nothing left for rescue operations, if protracted. At 15mph she will manage her fuel OK. Or do we now need a fifth rescue ship with additional fuel supplies? And a sixth with food supplies (don’t forget the bananas and milkshakes!) for 54 climate refugees crowded onto ships with food for crew only? Those research station supply ships/breakers will be departing in the opposite direction to home when they extricate themselves- to do their day job of supplying. The refugees will be plying the Southern Ocean for nearly a month before arriving home.
Turney’s mission was to see how the climate has changed at Commonwealth Bay since Mawson landed there almost exactly 101 years ago.
Well, he got his answer didn’t he.
There is no way to spin it without sounding like a nutbar.
Sometimes it takes a major disaster to bring people back from la-la land. This may be that disaster. If it is then they will become the martyrs that saved the world from the return of communism and economic ruin.
So he brought his Children? Shocking irresponsibility!
@jim
>On position reports: Some of these vessels may be equipped with VHF-band only radio position transmitters (vs Inmarsat satellite), and this requires a land-based station/infrastructure to receive the position report and forward that info to data aggregaters for display on various websites.
Lost? Unlikely in the sense that they can easily report where they are and there is a high likelihood listeners would by following them, considering the circumstances. They would set out to sea with equipment down to the 40 metre band as they would want to be able to talk to ships in their vicinity (a radius of 2000 km). Medical mayday’s are often put out on 20 and 15m bands because they are most likely to pick up amateur traffic there. I am sure head office knows where they are.
If the Chinese are stuck in the ice, that was a heck of a risk to take and the con$equence$ are mighty. The Australians have also found a really inconvenient s’truth: It was a lot warmer 100 years ago.
RockyRoad says:
The vast majority of oil producers support the Global Warming meme–they certainly don’t fund the likes of WUWT or anybody else opposed to such folly.
And now you have one of the reasons why.
Oil co’s support AGW for one reason, PROFIT. Search on Shell oil for some real scum.
Confirmation of Warren’s report. I was wrong concerning the status of the Xue Long.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/232243/stranded-passengers-wait-for-break-in-weather
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/232243/stranded-passengers-wait-for-break-in-weather
BBC radio producer Andrew Luck-Baker, who is on the ship, says he has been told the nearby Chinese ice-breaker ship Xue Long with a helicopter on board has been stuck in ice for the last day.
He says the Australian ice breaking ship Aurora Australis may now need to rescue the Chinese ship.
Mr Luck-Baker says there is a degree of uncertainty about when, or if, those on board the ship will be helicoptered out.
Earlier passengers and crew rang in the New Year with dinner, drinks and song, congregating in the bar they sang a song about their adventures.
Lets recap
Akademie begat the Xue Long, which begat the Astrolabe which begat the Aurora which begat the Polar Star.
Will the Chinese Pacific Fleet be next? Which Ice Breaker is bigger than the Polar Star? Will the “tourists” arrive home in time for Nth Summer?
Stephen Richards says:
December 31, 2013 at 11:31 am
“And now you have one of the reasons why.
Oil co’s support AGW for one reason, PROFIT. Search on Shell oil for some real scum.”
Now, wait, there are a few clarifications necessary.
Profit is not immoral. Without profit, you get the USSR. Companies were legal in the USSR; only profit was illegal. See how well that worked for the common man.
Second. Supporting the AGW meme is not leading to warming. So while the Oilcos might HOPE the AGW scientists are right, and position themselves to gain oil in the arctic, this is just a bet. They don’t support AGW science to make it warm in the arctic.
The real reason for supporting the AGW meme is that they hoped to be able to kill rival coal as that contains more carbon. Coal producers are far less concentrated economically as the barriers to entry are lower, the technology to produce it is simpler and cheaper. The Oilcos are an oligopole, the coal producers are not; an oligopole can more easily form a cartel and drive up prices.
At this point, it looks like summer time may be their best hope for beneficial warming. I know the irony is already as thick as the Antarctic ice, but that global warming alarmists are in dire need of this warming that they claim is detrimental… is critical to their survival (and those of the rescuers) is a tour de force.
It is interesting to see the BBC make references to the USCGC Polar Star as a potential solution to the mess we are watching unfold. They speak if as if they have advance knowledge of a tasking for that ship, yet there is no mention of one (that I know of) by USCG officials. If it were to occur, it surely would provide some extra drama to flesh out the ending of my proposed screenplay and eventual movie. 😉
Seriously though, the Polar Star has it’s own mission to complete at McMurdo. Three other research/resupply ships have been diverted from real-world (as opposed to tourism) missions too long already. The Polar Star is fresh off a three year heavy overhaul. Although it has the capability to break through to the Russian ship, the question is would the USCG risk it? It would be a lot of time, fuel and additional maintenance demands for very little gain, imho.
Speaking of fiascos — The Energy Department will not review it’s upcoming rule on the social costs of carbon.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/energy-department-rejects-social-cost-of-carbon-challenge/article/2541380
On the Aurora web cam there’s 14 1/2 hr gap between the last picture time stamp (1 Jan 14: 3 A.M.) and the time laspe video time stamp (31 Dec 3: 12:30 PM). The last few time laspe pics show them surrounded by ice.
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/webcams/aurora
It makes me wonder if they too are stuck in the ice.
I think an Ig Nobel prize would be a fitting reward for the amount of scientific effort that went into this expedition.
Any news on a Polar Star rescue mission will probably be released by Allyson Conroy, an assistant Public Affairs Officer at Coast Guard Pacific Area in Alameda, California.
RockyRoad, DirkH, Stephan Richards,
RE: Big Oil, prospecting, etc.
A bit OT, but y’all might find this interesting…
7 things everyone knows about energy that just ain’t so (2013 Edition), Kurt Cobb
Mark Twain once said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” And, there are many, many things that the public and policymakers know for sure about energy that just ain’t so.
That list is very long indeed and getting longer as the fossil fuel industry (which has little interest in intellectual honesty) continues its skillful manipulation of a gullible and sometimes careless media.
Below I’ve listed seven whoppers that it would be charitable to call misleading. Longtime readers will recognize that I’ve addressed them before in various pieces. But I thought that it would be useful to review the worst of the worst of 2013 as the year ends.
http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2013/12/7-things-everyone-knows-about-energy.html
So which is it? Is the MV Xuě Lóng stuck in the ice too? There seem to be conflicting reports for the last 2 days. Is there any reason they would be hiding that fact (if it is a fact)?
DirkH says:
December 31, 2013 at 11:56 am
DirkH,
You have hit the proverbial nail on the head! A+ on your analysis!
Mtk
What has had me constantly updating reports about the Akademie is the apparent total lack of understanding about the situation this ship of fools is in. Either they have realised that they could all die, and soon, and what we are seeing is a type of mass hysteria evident in the tweets and BBC and Guardian updates, or they are totally oblivious to the danger they are in, let alone the danger they have placed the crews of the Xue Long, the Astrolabe (now released from rescue duty) and the Aurora into.
Add in the fact that McMurdo Station has not received the supplies and technical equipment needed, the cost of keeping 2 ships on standby waiting for a break in the weather to attempt a rescue attempt, and all the “tourists” can do is treat it like a summer break at Fort Lauderdale.
If I thought that there was no danger to their lives, I’d just leave them there till the ice melts, either a late summer melt, or next year, or the year after, as a poignant reminder of what Mother Nature thinks of CAGW and its proponents.
– “How did you get trapped in ice ? we told you to ask Chris Turney where to go”
” Si, senor I ask the Chris’mas Turkey, and she point beak south.. So I went south”
..apologies to Latino’s it’s just to demonstrate mishearing between different language speakers, it could be any accent you imagine
I have read elsewhere that the lead scientist, Turney, runs a company called Carbonscape that aims to “fix carbon from the atmosphere and make a host of green bi-products, helping reduce greenhouse gas levels.”
I have found the web-site but Turney is not listed as the owner. Can anyone else verify this?
So if this is true, as they always say… follow the money.
Wouldn’t it be further irony that a global warming alarmists / scaremonger trying to cash in is stuck in the ice?
Can anyone start a Wiki page entitled “The 2013 Akademic Shokalskiy Incident”? I’m not too savvy on Wiki editing unfortunately. Right now there is a sub-section within the main Akademic Shokalskiy page entitled ‘Incidents’ with some basic info but I don’t think that does this fiasco justice. There’s no detail, no mention of Turney’s statements about the supposed ice breakout and subsequent entrapment. I think the whole detailed unfolding of events needs to go down in history for all time. It’s an important incident that needs a page in its own right for the sake of posterity.
After all, the insignificant town of Copiapó in Chile has its own Wiki page, but the Copiapó Mining Incident of 2010 has its own separate Wiki page as it should. The incident gripped the world for a week and thus is far more important than the town. The Shokalskiy Incident has, or should have, gripped the world for the last week. The incident is greater than the ship.
These Wiki article sub-sections often link through to a main article if the incident is important enough, either in hindsight or as events unfold. I think events have unfolded far enough for that to happen.
Would someone familiar with maritime law comment on how rescue costs are settled among the various parties? I assume the owner of the distressed vessel is ultimately responsible and carries insurance to cover it. But if as reported the Chinese ship Xue Long is itself now in need of rescue and if said rescue were to be effected by the Polar Star, does the US Coast Guard collect from the Xue Long owners and can they pass this on to the Akademik Shokalskiy owners as part of the cost of attempting a rescue they could not actually carry out?
Warren in New Zealand says: December 31, 2013 at 9:36 am ‘This could never be made into a film, no-one would believe it.’
Less plausible than ‘Virus’ and without the benefit of Jamie Lee-Curtis and Donald Sutherland as ‘Frankenskipper’.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0120458/
@Nigel;
At least they were both ‘A’ rated actors.
*both parents were ‘A’ rated.
Walter Allensworth says:
December 31, 2013 at 12:39 pm
I have read elsewhere that the lead scientist, Turney, runs a company called Carbonscape that aims to “fix carbon from the atmosphere and make a host of green bi-products, helping reduce greenhouse gas levels.”
I have found the web-site but Turney is not listed as the owner. Can anyone else verify this?
So if this is true, as they always say… follow the money.
====================
Here is the info, Walter!
http://au.linkedin.com/pub/chris-turney/25/8a1/926
J. Philip Peterson says:
December 31, 2013 at 12:18 pm
So which is it? Is the MV Xuě Lóng stuck in the ice too? There seem to be conflicting reports for the last 2 days. Is there any reason they would be hiding that fact (if it is a fact)?
Yeah interesting, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority which has prime responsibility for the rescue of Turney’s Turkeys does not mention anything about the Xue Long being stuck in ice and now unable to mount a helicopter rescue:
http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/
Only the BBC says this MAY be happening:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558276
Question now is whether the BBC is indulging in some guesswork here or whether AMSA is censoring reports (unlikely in my opinion).
However last tweet from the man on the spot was “weather warm, wet and windy, unlikely we are flying this morning” and he seems unaware that the Xue Long is stuck in ice if that is indeed the case.
But then again he may be just sitting there having his Eggs Benedict waiting for it all to happen.
@Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7,
I’d guess it will cost you your $TSLA investment times seven.
But ones and zeros are funy things!
“Earlier passengers and crew rang in the New Year with dinner, drinks and song, congregating in the bar they sang a song about their adventures” Great!!!!!
.
We can’t start a Wikipedia article about this until an MSM reporter starts to uncover the story. So email them, guys. Just FYI
“Earlier passengers and crew rang in the New Year with dinner, drinks and song, congregating in the bar they sang a song about their adventures”…. and then Pooh Bear said to Christopher Robin, “What a lovely time we are having on this wonderful boat trip on the ocean!”
Mac the Knife says: December 31, 2013 at 12:16 pm
7 things everyone knows about energy that just ain’t so (2013 Edition), Kurt Cobb
Mark Twain once said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” And, there are many, many things that the public and policymakers know for sure about energy that just ain’t so.
http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2013/12/7-things-everyone-knows-about-energy.html
I second this: You can take all that Curt Cob says to the bank as fact. Understanding all 7 points is more important to your future than AGW either Pro or Con. As a matter of fact future Energy prices will trump any carbon costs that any of these yahoos try to foist on anyone with their AGW agenda..
regarding Radio New Zealand reports, keep in mind they are listed with BBC & Guardian at the bottom of the Expedition leaders’ page, as media connections of some kind.
also check under “science outreach” at the top of the page u get “doodle4google”.
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/aae-leaders/
NBC featured De Losa as a passenger in an article, without mentioning she won the google comp:
21 Nov:Daily Telegraph: Rohan Smith: Hornsby student Olivia Kong’s Brain Matter design Google’s favourite
The 15-year-old’s design was deemed the very best of thousands of entries from across the country in the Doodle for Google competition.
It will now be splashed across the Australian landing page of the world’s biggest search engine operator, Google…
For her award-winning design, Olivia wins a Chromebook and $10,000 worth of technology for her school.
***Her teacher, Nicole De Losa, wins an expedition to Antarctica to bring knowledge back to her students…
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/the-hills/hornsby-student-olivia-kongs-brain-matter-design-googles-favourite/story-fngr8i1f-1226757525133
GoogleNZ: Doodle 4 Google New Zealand 2013
Judging Process and Prizes
Special Prize 2013
To celebrate our theme of Exploration, this year we’re announcing a special prize for one teacher, nominated by the Doodle 4 Google national winner’s school: a trip to the Antarctic onboard the Australasian Antarctic Expedition. The expedition prize is sponsored with thanks to ASB…
http://www.google.co.nz/doodle4google/prizes.html
meanwhile, google news pages barely carried stories on this fiasco, until it became impossible to ignore it and, even today, check what those AlGore-ithms choose to display:
Scientists trapped on ship in Antarctic keep spirits up
BBC News – 1 hour ago
In Depth: Auld Lang Syne in the Antarctic as stranded adventurers await rescue – The Guardian
what arrangements, if any, were made between the media & the ship’s operators, aurora edpeditions, are not yet known.
negrum says:
December 31, 2013 at 9:18 am
“I wonder if Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change will start replacing Acts of God in insurance contracts?”
Can we have an association of that name – CACCA – that reports and researches instances of CACC.
Also, slightly OT but Bob Geldof has made a starling prediction – http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/news/bob-geldof-the-world-could-end-by-2030-8864186.html. I wish Bob a long and happy life, long enough to get past 2030 and review his eschatological claim.
Now I have an ear worm from this 🙂
Apparently Turney is saying that warming is the reason for the ice.
Pity the record does not support that. The French station west of the ship, shows no trend since 1950. The trend is negative since 1980.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NASA_T%C2%BA_D%27Urvi_1950-2012.gif
SST? Nope, southern ocean temps are also declining. The sateliite record for the south polar troposhere shows no trend.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/12/30/no-antarctic-warming-since-1979/#more-6225
Ok, the third vehicle into the harbor is faked, but it is a good analogy to the bigger and bigger icebreaker:
http://www.truthorfiction.com/rumors/c/cranetrouble.htm#.UsM8ivRDt8E
After cruising generally in a North or North East direction the last day, according to the web cam, the a Aurora Australis now appears to be heading South West direction, perhaps they are heading back to the party.
Someone a few posts back asked about the cruise speed of the Polar Star in thick ice, answer is it does not have a cruise speed. The ship has a pair of high powered gas turbine engines that can drive the ship up onto the ice, the ship’s mass then breaks it. They back off and do it a agin, so the forward speed is going to be pretty slow. My impression was that this is mostly to break through pressure ridges, not continuous thick ice. I would also think this could not be done close to another ship.
I got to tour one of the two breakers years ago, forgot which one now, but the steel in the hull seemed really thin to me at the time. It does have a lot of reinforcing ribs which helps.
Pretty good summary with lots of pictures from Daily Mail Online here . Now that I have a better idea of where they are relative to McMurdo Station, it looks like the Polar Star wouldn’t have to divert too far from present course to reach them. The Star was last reported leaving Honolulu on Dec 18 (presumably after refueling). She could take on more fuel at Invercargill, NZ if needed and then head roughly 1,500 km South to reach the trapped ships. Of course this takes time away from her scheduled duties at McMurdo.
As others have noted, the efforts to rescue the Akademik Shokalskiy have already taken three other ships from their scheduled activities and forced other parties to curtail or abandon planned research as a result. Diverting the Polar Star would screw up a fourth set of schedules.
The Akademik Shokalskiy, the Xue Long, the Astrolabe, the Aurora Australis, possibly the Polar Star, and why not also the Akademik Fedorov…
Party time!
negrum says:
December 31, 2013 at 12:01 pm
I disagree, according to http://www.improbable.com/ig/ , “The Ig Nobel Prizes honor achievements that first make people laugh, and then makes them think. The prizes are intended to celebrate the unusual, honor the imaginative — and spur people’s interest in science, medicine, and technology.” I.e. the prize is awarded to research that ultimately is worth doing, but superficially trivial or silly. The best candidates are research efforts that put the proper amount of work and yield useful results.
This exhibition does not meet those lofty criteria.
Amazing ain’t it, there are 5 media people, as in paid press staff, yet updates are contradictory and sparse.
Poor wee presstitutes, must be tough, can not report without admitting what everyone else already knows?
Did the IPCC cliche invent CAGW or was it all orchestrated by the same media and PR hacks who are hiding this fiasco?
Xue Long ( or Snow Dragon) is making very slow progress but is on the move – headed North now.
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:144.4367/centery:-66.68307/zoom:8/mmsi:412863000
Let’s hope there is no repeat of the 1871 Whaling Disaster. The US whaling industry was already in decline at that point due to the discovery and refining of petroleum, but the loss of 22 ships from New Bedford, Massachusetts gutted the industry in that town.
Although shipowners were devastated, no doubt the whales were happy.
btw, as the MSM seems reluctant to list the names of Australian & New Zealand scientists on board, apart from Turney & Fogwill on the Shokalskiy, & Grant Hose on the Aurora Australis ice-breaker, check those listed here as being a part of “Leg Two”, which is what the ship is on at present. whether this indicates they are on the Shokalskiy or the Aurora Australis, who knows:
AAE Science Team
Both Legs
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/aae-science-leaders/
for the record:
Wikipedia: Aurora Australis (ice breaker)
Aurora Australis is an Australian icebreaker. Built by Carrington Slipways and launched in 1989, the vessel is owned by P&O Maritime Services, but is regularly chartered by the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) for research cruises in Antarctic waters and to support Australian bases in Antarctica…
Aurora Australis is served by a crew of 24[3] and carry up to 116 passengers accommodated in three or four-bunk cabins with attached bathrooms…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora_Australis_(icebreaker)
They have there priorities in the right place with no mention of the time money and risk to rescue them. Also seem to be more concerned about being rescued by a dry ship.
“We are preparing for evacuation to a dry ship so a few drinks seems reasonable, but we also have to be ready at a moment’s notice for the helicopter arrival so staying sober is important,” he told AFP.
The ship has two weeks’ worth of fresh food, but Peacock said drinks are becoming sparse, with “just enough alcohol left” to ring in 2014.
===========================================================
Actually, he proposed aircraft carriers to cover what was, at the time, a dead zone in the Atlantic during WW2 to defend against u boats. More practical answers developed but he did build a (small) successful prototype.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-01/youtube-new-years-video-from-stranded-antarctic-ship/5180674
Words fail me…..and the ABC try and implicate the crew in the accompanying article.
Of Penguins, Peacocks and Mann.
Ones and zeros were funny things. So were digits.
pat says:
December 31, 2013 at 1:40 pm
.
***Her teacher, Nicole [b]De Losa[//b], wins an expedition to Antarctica to bring knowledge back to her students…
Priceless. You made my day.
Greg says:
December 31, 2013 at 7:50 am
Not be deterred by reality Grauiad gets 2014 off to a flying start with “at least 4C by 2100″.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/31/planet-will-warm-4c-2100-climate
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Isn’t that a “-4c” I see? So the Grauiad thinks we are heading into an ice Age. /snark
Probably WAY more than you want to watch, but here’s a good source of Professor Turney describing the purpose of the expedition. The first video is a long story of Antarctic exploring history, but at the end he starts to explain why this group is going. Then a bunch of Q/A from his audience. I liked video 2 of 31 where he explains that as long as he can drum up the cash, he can do whatever he wants.
http://nfsa.gov.au/schoolscreen/nfsa-connects/chris-turney-antarctic-ex/
“Ulrich Elkmann says:
December 31, 2013 at 3:10 pm
pat says:
December 31, 2013 at 1:40 pm
.
***Her teacher, Nicole [b]De Losa[//b], wins an expedition to Antarctica to bring knowledge back to her students…
Priceless. You made my day.”
Too bad there’s so little knowledge to bring back….
Great satire….. ” Ice deniers on Antartic mission find themselves in an unexpected jam: Kevin O’Brien” http://www.cleveland.com/obrien/index.ssf/2013/12/ice_deniers_on_antartic_missio.html
This is almost getting too funny to be true. Read the latest from the Sydney Morning Herald…
http://climatesanity.wordpress.com/2013/12/31/akademik-shokalskiy-reality-is-stranger-than-satire/
how can Daily Mail be publishing this BS from the UNSW at this moment, without even mentioning their current Expedition? i am beyond bewildered, tho the readers look like they’re filling in the cracks:
31 Dec: UK Daily Mail: Sarah Griffiths: Earth’s temperature could rise by more than 4°C by 2100, claim scientists
Research by the University of New South Wales found that the global climate is more affected by carbon dioxide than previously thought
The scientists believe temperatures could rise by more than 8°C by 2200 if C02 emissions are not reduced
The research, published in the journal Nature, found that the global climate is more affected by carbon dioxide than previously thought…
It could also solve one of the mysteries of climate sensitivity – the role of cloud formation and whether it has positive or negative effect on global warming.
Researchers now believe that existing climate models significantly overestimate the number of clouds protecting our atmosphere from overheating…
Professor Sherwood told The Guardian that a rise of 4°C would likely be ‘catastrophic’ rather than just dangerous.
‘For example, it would make life difficult, if not impossible, in much of the tropics, and would guarantee the eventual melting of the Greenland ice sheet and some of the Antarctic ice sheet’ he said…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2531706/Earths-temperature-rise-4-C-2100-claim-scientists.html
compare with a good news story Down Under today:
31 Dec: JoanneNova: Skeptical view makes Australian front page: climate madness, dishonesty, fraud, deception, lies and exploitation says Maurice Newman
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/12/skeptical-view-makes-australian-front-page-climate-madness-dishonesty-fraud-deception-lies-and-exploition-says-maurice-newman/
Warren in New Zealand says: December 31, 2013 at 9:36 am ‘This could never be made into a film, no-one would believe it.’
If they ever filmed it their New Year party could be based on the dinner party in Carry On Up The Khyber.
holts says:
December 31, 2013 at 1:35 pm
“Earlier passengers and crew rang in the New Year with dinner, drinks and song, congregating in the bar they sang a song about their adventures”…
– – – – – – – – – –
Known as breaking out the rum in order to distract/placate the mutinous on board.
BTW, what about the tourists on medication? Medical emergencies looming when their personal supplies run out?
I hope they run out of food and fuel and heavy storms prevents any kind of rescue or food drops. Much hilarity ensues.
@Old Ranga, The tourists are nothing. What happens when these scientists run out of medications?
A ‘whitewash’ on the national evening news (in the US) tonight; both our ABC and NBC news networks presented this as the ‘Russian’ ship and its passengers awaiting rescue and nary a word about the cli sci/CAGW nature of the ‘mission’ …
Typical. Uninformed. Reporting.
No wonder their viewership has dwindled! The internet reveals the truth … (normally I don’t even schedule a ‘viewing’ of the evening news; I just wanted to see tonight what the ‘ministry of truth’ was pumping out on this event tonight.)
.
The party atmosphere on the ship of fools will not endear them to the other researchers whose long-planned activities have been disrupted or cancelled by the diversion of rescue ships .
Perhaps even the climate scientists among them will join us sceptics in criticising the leaders of this fiasco expedition.
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/31/rescue-effort-for-trapped-antarctic-voyage-disrupts-serious-science/?_r=1
Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7 says:
December 31, 2013 at 9:02 am
…. I also suspect insurance rates for these Antarctic “research” trips will rise sharply as a result….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Alan, first thanks for the information on the Polar Star.
As far as the insurance goes, expect ALL insurance to go up. After 9/11 our insurance agent told us the insurance companies were increasing all rates and canceling a lot of policies. Our business insurance went up by 25%.
This of course depends on whether or not the insurance company is even willing to pay. If it can be documented that Prof. Christmas Turkey ignored the Ship Master’s warning and didn’t pack-up and leave ASAP then Prof. Christmas Turkey (and his Univ.) could get stuck with the bill. So expect a lot of He said – She said on the subject of “Who Pays”
Bishophill comments
@Paul Matthews – Dec 31, 2013 at 10:37 AM
And
Dec 31, 2013 at 11:39 AM | Unregistered CommenterRichard Tol
I’d guess they’ve nixed while mixing all hemispheres.
Ahem.
The position ‘reporting’ via radio and display on the web is for the benefit of the data ‘consuming’ public; make no mistake, the bridge crew of those vessels are fully aware of the their position, long/lat coordinate pair and maybe even their ‘maidenhead locator’ grid square.
Perhaps an intro to the ‘hobby’ of ship (incl position) monitoring is in order? See for a quick overview: – http://www.marinetraffic.com/p/expand-coverage
How does this ‘system’ work – FAQ: http://www.marinetraffic.com/p/faq
The system is based on AIS (Automatic Identification System). As from December 2004, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) requires all vessels over 299GT to carry an AIS transponder on board, which transmits their position, speed and course, among some other static information, such as vessel’s name, dimensions and voyage details.
References – Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_Identification_System
.
The response of the watermelons to this “unexpected” event shows almost decisively that CAGW is a religion, and hasn’t the remotest connection with science (unless one includes cargo cult science). These individuals will learn nothing from this event and it wouldn’t surprise me if Trenbeth were to rationalize the sudden cooling that froze the ship in thick ice as the effects of anthropogenic CO2 chasing the heat from the upper ocean levels into the deep ocean beyond the reach of our current instruments. The whole procedure is very similar to the piling on of epicycle after epicycle to preserve the dogma that the sun rotates around the earth.
Here in Kamloops where the CAGW dogma has decreed that rainfall will become far less frequent and that winters will become warmer and drier, we’ve had one of the wettest winters I’ve ever experienced. Also, the average termperature for December was -3 C lower than in 2012. In order to deal with the coming drought, the city of Kamloops mandated that all houses have water meters so that the city could monitor water consumption so that it would be better prepared to deal with the coming drought. Sounds as if the same individuals who forecast the recent anomalous Australian “wet” droughts were employed to advise the city of Kamloops in the area of future water management.
IMHO Gaia has a very highly developed sense of humor and it wouldn’t surprise me if she’s got some severe summer storms planned after first adding many terrajoules to Trenbeth’s “missing heat” total.
Gail, Pat and others – that’s what we’ve just been discussing – who will be held financially at fault; and who will be initially paying for this fiasco. Mind you they are still trapped together and cabin fever hasn’t set in – yet, so I don’t see them turning on each other while still trapped in ice. When they get out – then the finger pointing and shouting will commence.
AND we’ll all likely get the final bills….as usual.
How many of these “tourists” are employed by the BBC?
Or, as Benny Hill would have it, “Bloody Tourists”.
SFGate (San Francisco Bay Area News):
“Global warming researcher gets stuck in ice”
Debra J. Saunders
Published 3:39 pm, Monday, December 30, 2013
http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/saunders/article/Global-warming-researcher-gets-stuck-in-ice-5102720.php
Saunders quotes Dr. Roy Spencer:
“I’m sure some researchers can find a possible explanation where humans are causing both Arctic ice melting and Antarctic ice growth, but I’m skeptical of scientists who blame every change in nature on human activities. Nature routinely causes its own changes, without any help from us,” quoth Spencer, himself a climate change contrarian.
Shokal’skii, Iulii Mikhailovich
Born Oct. 5 (17), 1856, in St. Petersburg; died Mar. 26,1940, in Leningrad. Soviet oceanographer, geographer, and cartographer. Honorary member of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR (1939; corresponding member, 1923).
After graduating from the Marine Academy, Shokal’skii worked at the Main Geophysical Observatory and Main Hydro-graphic Administration. From 1910 to 1930 he was a professor at the Naval Academy; beginning in 1925, he was also a professor at Leningrad State University. He served as president of the Geographic Society of the USSR from 1917 to 1931.
Shokal’skii’s principal works dealt with meteorology, hydrology, and oceanography. From 1923 to 1927, Shokal’skii led an oceanographic expedition in the Black Sea and studied the Northern Sea Route and ways of developing the route. He headed projects summarizing hypsometric materials and compiled a relief map of Russia. With A. A. Tillo, he developed a cartometric technique and applied it to calculating the surface of the Asiatic part of Russia and the lengths of the most important rivers. Shokal’skii was the compiler and editor of a series of general geographic maps and atlases. Twelve geographic features, including a strait between islands of Severnaia Zemlia, an island at the entrance to Ob’ Bay, and an island in the Kara Strait, have been named after Shokal’skii.
WORKS
Okeanografiia, 2nd ed. Leningrad, 1959.
Fizicheskaia okeanografiia. Leningrad, 1933.
negrum says: @ December 31, 2013 at 12:01 pm
I think an Ig Nobel prize would be a fitting reward for the amount of scientific effort that went into this expedition.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
We can hope but it ain’t going to happen.
“..The ceremony is co-sponsored by the Harvard-Radcliffe Society of Physics Students and the Harvard-Radcliffe Science Fiction Association. “ link
Harvard, and Radcliffe? That is deep in Politically Correct, CAGW territory.
when the captain returns to Russia he will sent to sibera
“clipe says:
December 31, 2013 at 3:54 pm
Bishophill comments
@Paul Matthews – Dec 31, 2013 at 10:37 AM
…
The Carbonscape Holdings share registry. There is a total of 29,553,564 shares on record for this company.
Catherine Ann TURNEY, Ian Stewart TURNEY, LATIMER TRUSTEES 2006 LIMITED 4,730,880 shares ~ 16.01%
Christian Stewart Macgregor TURNEY 382,400 shares ~ 1.29%
James TURNEY 290,581 shares ~ 0.98%
Tim FLANNERY 159,733 shares ~ 0.54%”
Gotta wonder who owns the other 23,989,970 (~81.2%) of the shares…
Soros? Gore? Rockefeller, Ford, or Gates Foundations?
Sorry, left off the source of the above re Shokal’skii, Iulii Mikhailovich. Wikipedia. The ship is named the Academic Shokalskii. It is interesting that his work dealt with meteorology, hydrology, and oceanography.
Folks, just go take a look at http://www.christurney.com and you get the full picture of what this halfwitted stunt is all about.
This is climate science meets twerking! Is Chris Turney the Miley Cyrus of Climate Science?
Anthony, perhaps we could have an on-line poll to see just who is the greeeaaatesst climate science twerker? An annual award? “The Twerkeys” ?
Looks like the Aurora Australis is getting deeper into the ice pack, still headed east-southest.
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/webcams/aurora.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=0a0_1388530475
no shortage of morale boosters on board.
I enjoy a laugh as much as the next person. But some of these comments are going a little too far. Let’s not overstep the mark here.
The ship almost certainly WAS trapped by older multiyear ice which broke free somewhere else, was blown by the wind to block them in, and then refroze in place around the ship. Turney is quite correct to offer this explanation and does not deserve ridicule for it. Those who seem to think several metres of sea ice suddenly just froze around the ship need to check the temperatures in the area.
redress says: @ December 31, 2013 at 2:44 pm
…Words fail me…..and the ABC try and implicate the crew in the accompanying article.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
That is why the Ship Master is always left out of the story. If as someone above mentioned, it was Prof. Turkey and his research crew who refused to get the lead out and get back to the ship ASAP, they may be trying to spin the story so the Ship Master is the scape goat. Can’t have the plebs realize a ‘Climate Scientist” is an utter fool.
In the end it does not matter, The Christmas Turkey will be Persona Non Grata and his career is finished. The other research teams are NOT going to forgive him. Unfortunately the innocent will get punished too.
Tim FLANNERY 159,733 shares ~ 0.54%”
Wasn’t this guy some cAGW honcho the Australian govt? I wonder if this guy was awarded shares for a little cooperation if you know what I mean. Who would put their own cash into this thing afterall? Anyway looks a little fishie.
ldd says: @ December 31, 2013 at 4:10 pm
AND we’ll all likely get the final bills….as usual.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
No matter who is “at fault” and who pays initially pays, you are correct it will be us. Either tax payers through a government, tax payers via the government financing the university or any one with insurance if the cruise ship company pays.
For some fun her is the advertisement for this cruise from Expeditions Online:
http://expeditionsonline.com/tour-44/spirit-of-mawson-akademik-shokalskiy
This is even better: http://expeditionsonline.com/vessels/expedition-ships/akademik-shokalskiy/
And the prices: http://expeditionsonline.com/vessels/expedition-ships/
Avery M says:
December 31, 2013 at 1:24 pm
“We can’t start a Wikipedia article about this until an MSM reporter starts to uncover the story. So email them, guys. Just FYI”
There is no way the wikipedia will ever report the truth about anything related to the climate. Don’t try it; you will only frustrate yourself.
Justa said:
“Wasn’t this guy some cAGW honcho the Australian govt?”
Yes, but he was quickly sacked by the new government – one of the things they have done properly. He predicted that the rain would no longer fill the dams. They filled and overflowed. Flannery had a part in the unnecessarily devastation caused by the flooding. His predictions caused the dam operators not to release water till it was too late. He is also responsible for the decision to build very expensive desalination plants, which are now mothballed.
Great links Gail, thanks I especially loved the part about – we are quietly confident of successful …. indeed! Guess they’ll be re-doing January’s bookings of this ship’s schedule right about now.
cynical_scientist says: @ December 31, 2013 at 5:46 pm
….The ship almost certainly WAS trapped by older multiyear ice which broke free somewhere else, was blown by the wind to block them in, and then refroze in place around the ship. Turney is quite correct to offer this explanation and does not deserve ridicule for it. Those who seem to think several metres of sea ice suddenly just froze around the ship need to check the temperatures in the area.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
It is the IRONY we are laughing at.
Remember we have been hearing for years how the multi-year ice in the Arctic is all disappearing and all the ice is first year ice. We have also been hearing how the sea ice is all melting in the Antarctic too. Now Turney turns around and reverses that manta to claim It were multi-year ice what done us in Guv.
@ Gail Combs:
The Captain of the vessel is in command; Chris Turney is just the charter customer. The Captain is answerable to the owners and not the paying passengers. The insurance company has a contract with the owners and the Captain is responsible for holding up the owners’ side of that contract.
If the actions of the chartering party interfered with the Captain’s directives then the owners (or their insurers) would have grounds for a counter-claim; I don’t know what assets there are to go after however. But this is all speculation as I haven’t seen reported any detailed account of the circumstances leading up to their current predicament. If the vessel is abandoned and lost this will all come out in the inquest.
I know many readers/contributers at WUWT have a low opinion of climate researchers but I really can’t imagine that Chris Turney would ignore the Captain giving a firm order that the vessel will be under way to clear the ice in 10 minutes and any gear not back onboard in that time will be abandoned. And I really can’t imagine any experienced Captain putting up with a charter customer who would ignore such an order, regardless of how many Facebook “likes” he had.
My own view (totally unsupported by anything reported to date) is simply that they were operating at the very limits of marginal conditions where even experts can get surprised. One could say we shouldn’t let tourists take part in research trips to severely hostile locations, but we’re allowing Richard Branson to solicit paying passengers for trips to space, so what’s the difference? I’ll bet all those scientists/passengers signed waivers and indemnity agreements which leave them no basis to complain.
The real issue for me is the extent to which a single Antarctic research/tourist expedition getting in trouble can commandeer limited rescue resources and thereby disrupt other planned research. I suspect when all is accounted for, the Spirit of Mawson expedition will have conducted net negative research.
The one thing we can be certain of is the lawyers will make money on this.
Gail Combs says:
December 31, 2013 at 5:50 pm
. . . In the end it does not matter, The Christmas Turkey will be Persona Non Grata and his career is finished. The other research teams are NOT going to forgive him. Unfortunately the innocent will get punished too.
—————————————————————————–
More likely, he will go on tour to tell how he was done in by climate change and he will later get larger grants for a new expedition.
Gail Combs says:
December 31, 2013 at 6:18 pm
Well, Gail, as per your advertisement for this cruise from Expeditions Online….
“Extended period in the Commonwealth Bay, East Antarctic coastline area.”
Refreshingly honest for this lot I would say.
cynical_scientist says:
December 31, 2013 at 5:46 pm
“I enjoy a laugh as much as the next person. But some of these comments are going a little too far. Let’s not overstep the mark here.”
We’re not laughing -we’re mocking and justly so – comments going to far are on other sites but not here. MODS here have been outstanding on this endeavor.
“The ship almost certainly WAS trapped by older multiyear ice which broke free somewhere else, was blown by the wind to block them in, and then refroze in place around the ship. Turney is quite correct to offer this explanation and does not deserve ridicule for it. Those who seem to think several metres of sea ice suddenly just froze around the ship need to check the temperatures in the area.”
You have no more of proof that’s this years ice, last year’s ice or the ice from the year before that…
and what difference at this point does it make? They were suppose to be the ‘smart’ people and yet they couldn’t figure out that wind blows ice around? Satellites show where the ice is. Oodles of information on wind is easily available to anyone with a computer/phone.
I don’t think that they’ll die there, least I hope not, but I do hope they get very uncomfortably delayed to the point they crave to be on dry unfrozen land with fresh bananas, out of their non-crusty under garments and never wanting ice in their beverages for a long time to come.
I also hope that no one DIES rescuing these happily partying “smart” people …
Do hope you fans of this excursion are starting to raise funds for this “little” misadventure as we’re all tapped out from the forced carbon taxes on the very power we need to warm our homes and cook our meals for our families sustenance.
P.S. Don’t you find it at all ironic that you can openly speak your mind here but I/we here, can’t on any CAGW pushing sites, like the Guardian or BBC?
*edit, non-crusty should read, crusty.
Wow. Even Dot Earth at NYT admits these guys are interfering with what NYT calls real science.
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/31/rescue-effort-for-trapped-antarctic-voyage-disrupts-serious-science/?smid=tw-share&_r=1&
cynical_scientist says:
December 31, 2013 at 5:46 pm
I enjoy a laugh as much as the next person. But some of these comments are going a little too far. Let’s not overstep the mark here.
The ship almost certainly WAS trapped by older multiyear ice which broke free somewhere else, was blown by the wind to block them in, and then refroze in place around the ship.
The ice has been there all winter/fall/summer. I’ve been watching the sea ice and it has been slowly receding. However, the rate is much slower than previous years. Some of that is because the ice from previous years did not melt and some of it is due to colder water. However, the ice has been in the general area for a long time with the normal wind blown drifting moving it around. It had to be a very dangerous place when they approached the ice pack. Although open areas no doubt existed (and still do), the ice wasn’t hiding.
The rats are beginning to abandon the sinking ship.
I don’t know if anyone was posted this yet, but the IRONY just gobsmacked me.
The British “explorers” on board the MV Explorer who were “commemorating the Spirit of Shackleton” found themselves repeating HIS adventure when their ship struck a piece of submerged ice and then SANK in the Antarctic in November of 2007! None of the passengers or crew were lost. But HOW AMAZING is it that both the “Spirit of Mawson” trip AND the “Spirit of Shackleton” cruise trips ended in disaster from sea ice?????
http://www.jamescairdsociety.com/shackleton-news-104519.htm
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/news/explorer-sinks-antarctica.html
I mean…come on. What are the odds?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11180231
Xue Long not trapped, manoeuvring through ice, but not attempting to reach Akademie
Total fiasco.
“The ship almost certainly WAS trapped by older multiyear ice which broke free somewhere else, was blown by the wind to block them in, and then refroze in place around the ship. Turney is quite correct to offer this explanation and does not deserve ridicule for it.”
agreed. thanks for the perspective..
Aphan says: (December 31, 2013 at 7:16 pm)
Amazing! I can hardly wait for someone to propose recreating the Donner Expedition.
@Aphan
Now that is ironic.
The captain of the Shokalsky is Igor Kiselyov, I’m assuming from his name that he (and the crew) came with the charter of the ship.
The captain and only the captain can be held held responsible if the ship becoming trapped was a result of human error.
How odd, just when suspiciously troll like comments start to crop up; along comes somebody who truly espouses the warmista methods.
Shame on you for even thinking any real humans share in such distressingly poor jocularity! Go back to RC or Penn State.
I may not disagree with the comments too far statement, but you leave me baffled by the followup multiyear ice statement which I suppose is to lessen the image of sheer stupidity on display near Antarctica.
Did that sneaky old ice creep up in the darkness (at Antarctica in the summer!?) and surround them while they snoozed or played shufflegraph or whatever the CAGW faithful do when they’re having a good time. No, it was there and they cruised right into it.
Tell you what, let’s wait till various marine authorities finish their investigations and the results get published. Then we should get a good idea just why an Antarctica experienced ship captain decided to sail into heavy sea ice conditions.
[Rant][Rhetorical]
Multi-year ice, new ice, wet ice, dry ice.
Blah Blah Blah.
Somebody get me a bullshit meter for all the crap Turney is churning out.
This warmist is in more denial than a drunk in a dumpster.
Maybe because it’s the dimwitted hand-picked team he took with him.
Somebody freaking tell me why Leticia Lentini – Events and Branding Marketing Manager for Google Australia and New Zealand is part of the science team for this fiasco.
WTF is she going to do, She must be running around the ice, stamping Google Doodles on the penguins.
Then we got Jonathan Palmer – Dendrologist on board.He is said to be leading the tree ring dating. Oh yeah. Is this some kind of joke. Tree rings in the Antarctic. No, tell me it isn’t so. Maybe hes starting some kind of new mating ritual Gather around the flotsam and either correctly count its rings, or ask Leticia for a lil kisseepoo.
Oh the travesty.
If you ask me, I think they should have brought their shore based operation with them.
Andy Baker – Environmental Monitor. now there is a guy they would have loved to had on board.
He could have monitored the direction of the ship into the Green.
Then lastly, the 3-headed Hydra. The trio of modellers.Matthew England, Nick Golledge, and Stephanie Waterman. Maybe they could have simple made the multi-year ice simply vanish with their years of modelling oceans and ice sheets and climate. Oh my !
Turney, youre a nutjob. First you got no sense to stand up and announce to the world what you were doing there. You have kept mum and have allowed MSM call you a ‘tourist’, and picked a tree-ring counter and a advertising marketer as part of your science team, probably leaving your best science team behind, whom could have help you avoid this whole fiasco.
My god, you can’t make this up.
/rant /rhetoric
A Dendrologist on a “scientific” exhibition to Antarctica? There was a whole thread recently about what is a scientist, yet, somehow, nobody got so far afield as to even imagine a dendrologist going to do science in Antarctica. What’s next? Drilling for ice cores in the Amazon? Honestly, you can’t make this stuff up.
Perhaps they were playing Hide the decline or Hide the Increase in SH Ice.
“The ship almost certainly WAS trapped by older multiyear ice which broke free somewhere else, was blown by the wind to block them in, and then refroze in place around the ship. Turney is quite correct to offer this explanation and does not deserve ridicule for it. ” – C.S.
Turney attributed his entrapment to “climate change.” Do you believe that one too? Secondly nobody really cares or made any issue about the origin of the ice. Only whacked out AGW freaks would think that the age of the ice holds some kind of pro-AGW significance. The master-mind of these ice follies is very much a candidate for ridicule.
Andrew W says:
December 31, 2013 at 7:42 pm
The captain of the Shokalsky is Igor Kiselyov, I’m assuming from his name that he (and the crew) came with the charter of the ship.
The captain and only the captain can be held held responsible if the ship becoming trapped was a result of human error.
Maybe he was also brainwashed by this Climatechage/Globalwarming religion?
Looking out to sea and chanting the mantra “there is no ice, there is no ice” because CAGW says so ! Or maybe group mentality caught him? : “Do you see the ice ? Noo, what ice? Just surface stuff, models say no ice”
SST animation for the south polar region for the last 30 days:
http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/sst-regional-movies-as-described-here-i.html?WxK=5
Good point; this will have a rippling effect, unforseen and unobserved for the moment by the so-called ‘mediots’ in the business of synthesizing ‘news’ and the reporting of same …
All because, a grand-standing attention-seeker (Turney) sought to ‘joy ride’ in a dangerous, frozen environment known for ‘enveloping’ and eventually overwhelming meager human endeavors and slowly evolving into circumstances that result in the unfortunate loss of human life … these frozen climes are no place for un-prepared happy-go-lucky cli sci ‘amateurs’ out for a good time and the ‘press’ that puts their name in lights.
I am now wondering what part alcohol and an open bar might have played all around in the bad decision made to ‘challenge the ice’; probably none. Still, the thought persists …
.
I just can’t get rid of the ear worm… “a 3-hour tour, a 3-hour tour…”
Andrew Bolt has some interesting reading on this including excursion personnel selection criteria over at his site: http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/somethings_cracking_and_its_not_the_ice_around_the_warmists_ship/
On the Andrew Bolt blog, there is a comment in an interview that the wife and Children
of turney are also on the voyage.
This raises questions, are they paying tourists or is their fare paid for ?
The UNSW is listed as providing financial support. So presumably there are risk assessments at UNSW that will list all the passengers. This information is probably accessible at
the Faculty level and is probably subject to FOI. I assumed someone other than
Turney approved the risk assessment. Was this trip supported by external research
grants?
Part of the risk assessment should indicate procedures to be followed in case of
problems, e.g. [protocol for rescue and who will pay for that rescue.
Documentation at UNSW will also indicate the sources of funding to pay to the trip.
There is also problem that Ph.D. students are on the trip. Is the data to be gathered
essential for their Ph.D. If yes, waht is plan B? If no, then why are they on the trip,
e.g. is it just scientific tourism?
the wife of Turney has a a MEd Language and Literacy at University of Wollongong followed by an MSc in Educational Research focusing on multimedia education at University of Exeter, UK and is part of the scientific crew, as you can see here:
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/aae-science-leaders/
@cynical scientist, yeah right.
This is shaping up to end badly,
It is Antarctica, known for killing the clueless and stupid.
The ice is continuing to press in on the ship, the weather is known to change for even worse, very quickly.
The needy are, by their own admission, absolutely oblivious to their danger.
They have endangered the crews of 3 other ships, two of which are fighting to maintain position, to further risk their lives, to rescue these idiots.
3 countries research projects have been interrupted, possible writing off this seasons work, but the pretty boys are whining about narrow beds and running out of booze.
Then there are 5 so called journalists on board, yet they cannot inform their public of the obvious?
As a satire you could not make this situation up.
Mockery is too good for these activists.
Extortion is in order, they pay up now or the rescuers leave them to seek their global warming.
Watching the Snow Dragon and Aurora sail over the horizon, might, just might, help these characters focus.
@ negrum says:
December 31, 2013 at 10:40 am
——————–
Oh BS to you negrum ! I feel sorry for you that you can’t call it out for what it is…
Too much blah, blah, blah and blah going on to present the truth which is they (AGW types) have been lying, are lying and will continue to lie. Hell, they are lying right now is desperate attempts to CYA this unfortunate event in Antarctica and that is CLEARLY obvious in the international media.
Man-up and speak the truth about this horrendous cancer on science called AGW !
Funny! On the news today here in Australia the “passengers” of this failed expedition are on the ice “flattening” out the snow trying to make a landing pad for the Chinese helicopter. I don’t think the pilot will be too impressed!
Might this incident be remembered, years from now, as the single defining moment when reason, hubris, and irony supplied the straw that broke the camel’s back of CAGW.
The University of New South Wales’s Antarctic Propaganda Expedition has been bungled as their top Global Warming / Climate Change Scientist Professor Chris Turney is trapped in (supposedly non-existent) Antarctic Summer sea ice. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhMWvdwgwZU&feature=c4-overview&list=UUAR0Oi4L0Om4F26uwpANgCg
After getting stuck Turney was quoted as saying; “We are stuck in our own excrement”.
Prof Turney organised the trip to “Assess the impact of human-caused Global Warming in the Antarctic” by re-tracing the voyage of Mawson, made in 1912 to Commonwealth Bay in the Antarctic. Mawson sailed there in 1912 in open waters, yet warmist Prof Turney is stuck fast in 4 meter thick sea ice.
Now we know how the supposed ‘human-caused global warming’ is affecting Antarctica; – its a hell of a lot colder and there is a hell of a lot more ice now than when Mawson was there in 1912.
This propaganda exercise was funded by the BBC, Australia’s ABC and the Guardian newspaper; since the scientists and activists got stuck on Christmas Eve, it has been hardly mentioned in these media sources or in other mainstream media. All reference to the real reason for the expedition has been deleted and it has now been re-badged as a ‘cruise’.
Amazingly, warmist Prof Turney thinks its still not cold enough, quote; “The inevitable conclusion (from our research) is emission targets (of 80% in the EU) will have to be lowered further still.”
Maybe he wants the ice to be over his head as well as under his feet?
I wonder just why anyone is still listening to these fraudsters???
Mawson’s trip to an ice-free commonwealth bay in 1912 is here; http://mawsonshuts.antarctica.gov.au/cape-denison/building-the-base
Tim Flannery; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRT7dlUu3Y0
David Karoly; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHiwp_tq7XU
Alarmists are the Real Deniers; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Spa35uBZJv8
Donna Laframboise Part 1 of the IPCC; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPz2QnD0HFg
UKs Economic Suicide — The Climate Change Act; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_V5alLmoBs
IPCC Doomed as AR5 is panned by climate scientists; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAtoRyJ_3AQ
John Cooks 97% Consensus Fiction; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oY-LVhNM5fA
Wind Farms Part 1; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgiFMpzKk74
Murry Salby Part 1; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Li75zFoaKlI
Charles Mackay wrote: “Men go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
john robertson says:
December 31, 2013 at 9:23 pm
“… Watching the Snow Dragon and Aurora sail over the horizon, might, just might, help these characters focus.”
*******************************
That would be entirely in keeping with the “Spirit of Mawson” who missed his ship Aurora by just 6 hours. Oh the weight of irony this story is generating will probably crush their ship long before the ice does.
Here’s a problem I have with the whole thing.
In 2010, the Mertz glacier tongue (the part that sticks out into the sea when a glacier reaches the shore and keeps going) was broken off by a huge iceberg called B09B, that had been “nudging” and battering into the side of the Mertz tongue for almost 18 years. The debris along with the remains of B09B moved north and west into Commonwealth Bay-where Mawson’s expedition base camp was. They filled in and froze in the bay three years ago. Satellite images captured the whole event beautifully.
The captain of the ship KNEW this because the ship/cruise ships webpage states that it cannot promise any passengers that they would make it to land to visit Mawson’s huts/camp due to the passage being blocked by ice and the iceberg, and it being summer and all, the ice might not be safe to travel across.
Now, the Mertz tongue had FORMERLY kept random sea ice chunks from entering the bay. It acted as a sort of “shield” and deflected anything floating out and around it into open water. Prior to 2010, getting into Mawson’s Commonwealth Bay was fairly easy to do in the summer without encountering a lot of ice at all.
But for THREE years, scientists, anyone who checks a satellite image once in a while, or reads an occasional article on the area, and ALL ship captains who take cruises there, has KNOWN that conditions near the Bay are unpredictable and different than they had been before. They KNEW that the “protection” of the Mertz tongue was GONE, and that any OLD ice in the area could easily at least damage their ships, if not seal them in during a storm.
So why…why on earth would ANY knowledgeable ship’s captain, familiar with the conditions and fierce events of that region, anchor a ship at the edge of a sea ice sheet that is known to shift, ESPECIALLY in the summer when the natural temps cause the ice on the shelves to calve more and break free? A captain who KNOWS that the sea ice blows into the Bay area MORE when south east winds blow? A captain who knew he was STILL two miles from open water as a storm blew in?
Was the captain stupid? Inexperienced? Pressured by the “media” presence on board? Or the AGW activist/scientists that couldn’t claim AGW was melting the Antarctic if they didn’t actually get to explore it where Mawson did?
Just how much about the Commonwealth Bay area did Chris Turney KNOW before he left? Did he research the area for years and have a perfect knowledge of the “new” shore conditions in that area since 2010? Or did he just pick a popular meme (Mawson) and decide to ride it’s coattails to media fame (by bringing along his own reporters) and head out with a group of innocent citizens who thought it sounded like a fun and “noble” thing to do?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akademik_Shokalskiy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MV_Xue_Long
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%27Astrolabe_%28icebreaker%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora_Australis_%28icebreaker%29
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USCGC_Polar_Star_%28WAGB-10%29
All ice breakers are not the same. Compare Polar Star with three propeller shafts with the other four. Polar Star has 3 each 25,000 HP gas turbines each driving one shaft + 6 each 3,000 HP Diesel Generators that power electric propulsion motors for 18,000 HP cruising at sea.
US CBS TV said at the beginning of this the Akademik Shokalskiy pushed through two miles of floating ice to reach the ice shelf where they stopped and people went exploring on the ice, When the offshore wind clocked around 180 degrees the shore parties were recalled but parties were as much as eight miles from the ship. Once everyone was aboard a blizzard began and a decision was made to wait for improved visibility before leaving. When visibility improved they found they were trapped by wind blown ice.
On another climate related subject San Diego is experiencing the weather that made San Diego famous. A strong high pressure system centered over the four corners area is keeping us warm. 70s-80s days 40s-60s nights. We have had this weather since mid December and tonight weather forecast said at least another ten days. Normally December and January are our rainy season. The last time we had Christmas – New Years beach weather was 2004-05.
frolly says:
December 31, 2013 at 9:57 pm
Jo Nova’s latest post is well worth reading. Charles Mackay is quoted there too.
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/12/skeptical-view-makes-australian-front-page-climate-madness-dishonesty-fraud-deception-lies-and-exploition-says-maurice-newman/
Apparently a facor in this fiasco, as I have read in other blogs, is land-based ice is melting, running into the sea and freezing contributing to expanding sea ice and sea level rises.
Adding to the info on ships sunk on expeditions to the Antarctic. In 1986 the expedition dubbed “in the footsteps of Scott” had 3 people retrace Scott’s trip to the pole. (Swan, Mears and Wood”.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Swan
Whilst enroute their vessel, the Southern Quest” was crushed and sunk by pack ice. All persons had to be rescued by military personnel at McMurdo.
Whatever you do do not name an expedition to Antarctica as something to do with historical figures. The original explorers were “deadly serious” in their endeavours. The more recent wannabes are game playing by comparison.
Redress quotes:
“Chris Turney is leading the team of scientists, meteorologists, marine ecologists, oceanographers, ice-core and tree-ring specialists”
Tree-ring specialists? Are they for real? Probably swabbing the decks. (hope it’s Mann!)
The tree ring specialist was on the first “leg” of the journey, which covered the subarctic islands South of New Zealand.
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/aae-science-leaders/
http://scholar.google.com.au/citations?user=TLEhXX8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra
I checked also for the link “supporters” on their site. Google tells me: Not found.
“To minimise our impact on the planet, the AAE will offset its carbon emissions by planting trees. Not just any trees, nor just anywhere. As Sir Douglas Mawson quoted above, images of the New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) have long been a source of inspiration and admiration to explorers and travellers alike. Kauri is also a relic from a bygone era; tracing its lineage back to when Antarctica and New Zealand shared a common link as parts of the supercontinent Gondwanaland. The AAE is delighted to announce a grove of kauri trees will be planted in its natural range on a property owned by The Kauri Museum at Matakohe, Northland, New Zealand; the world’s first carbon neutral museum.”
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/our-legacy/
How many kauri trees will they have to plant to compensate for all the carbon they are using up with this trip and the rescue attempts? They might need to a planting area larger than the entire North Island of New Zealand.
You couldn’t make this stuff up !
More funnies! A tourist flight above Antarctica to see in the new year. I hope they bought plenty of carbon offsets. Looked like a 737 sized plane, ~300 “passengers?
About carbon emiisions there is no problem at least with the AAE. They have already planned ahead and calculated them with a special tool. Now they will plant new zealand kauri trees that will wash them free from all environmental sins within 50 years of growing time.
And they have been very wise to choose the kauri tree. As this species lives up to 2000 years, even the carbon emissions from thr rescue actions are included. So in about 500 years every trace of CO2 from that Expedition will have vanished.
Well that’s bogus CAGW twaddle. Watch the Antarctic time lapse link posted by Ulric above.
Ask those silly posters of that info how did that land ice melt? Then ask how that melted water reach miles out to sea?
Ranks right up there with Turney’s silly statement about the ice pulling salt out of the seawater so that it was almost fresh water beneath the boat.
“It is very simple. At minus 55, ice melts and runs into the sea as fresh water. The hot Sea Water melts floating ice. This all freezes at minus 55 and results in even more ice. Some call it magic but climate “scientists” know better. Sigh.
It just really makes absolutely obvious who the real deniers are.
“clipe says:
December 31, 2013 at 3:54 pm”
All the Turney family are shareholders. I’d imagine his wife is secretary, but more interestingly it’s registered in New Zealand. I am sure there is a vaild tax reason why the company is registered there, ie, company tax is lower in NZ than in Australia.
“ATheoK says:
December 31, 2013 at 10:48 pm”
I agree, but you do have to laugh when you read posts like that. But some people just don’t want to face facts, even when we have actual visual proof the area was ice free in 1912 and packed solid enough to require icebreakers in 2013/14. Somthing has gone seriously wrong in 100 years.
We’ve all had our fun.
Now let’s get everybody out alive.
I’ve been trying to piece together what’s going on with the ice in this area. Here’s a short summary.
1987 Iceberg B09B calved from the Ross Ice Shelf.
1992 B09B had drifted to just east of the Mertz Glacier tongue, but remained grounded.
Late 2002 B09B begins to move again toward Mertz.
Feb 2010 Iceberg B09B collided with the Mertz Glacier tongue, breaking it off. It already had large cracks and was expected to calve anyway soon.
Turney in his Dec 30 blog post incorrectly states “In 2010, a large iceberg known as B09B, calved from the continent and collided spectacularly with the extended tongue of the Mertz Glacier.” It calved in 1987.
The calved Mertz Glacial tongue created Iceberg C28. C28 drifted west affecting the main polynya adjacent to the glacier.
Some months later C28 split into several sections and most moved out into open water.
Meanwhile B09B remained east of the remaining Mertz glacier tongue for a while, then slowly moved west. Today it is in the area of Commonwealth Bay.
The Polynyas have largely returned to normal. Good timing the WUWT Polynya article. The Polynya acts like a sea ice factory.
Both B09B and C28 have resulted in considerable ice in and around Commonwealth Bay since 2010. Much of it dense and thick multi-year ice. This was well known to the expedition before they left.The effects of this ice movement and changes in the polynyas have been studied for years.
The heavy ice in the area has (in theory) affected the Penguin population around Commonwealth Bay. Supposedly, this is one of the things this expedition wanted to investigate. The day they got stuck in the ice, they were out counting penguin nests. The population should rise again once B09B and the the “fast ice” around it moves out.
The CAGW meme will have to be that B09B and later C28 calved as a result of global warming, and this series of events over 26 years resulted in large amounts of ice where the ship is stuck.
Someone forgot to tell the Antarctic we are in the midst of a global warming :/
http://realcoldout.com/global-warming-party-gatecrashed/
“Apparently a factor in this fiasco, as I have read in other blogs, is land-based ice is melting, running into the sea and freezing contributing to expanding sea ice and sea level rises.”
Yes, and somehow the warmie blogs thinks that indicates AGW. Except that the Antarctic has seasons. EVERY year, sea ice extent halves in summer from 19m sq k to about 9m and so presumably there’s some melt on land too (as temps push towards + double digits). It’s called “summer” not cAGW. Of course, any melting in the Arctic (even if there’s an undersea volcano) is by definition cAGW.
u.k.(us) says:
December 31, 2013 at 11:11 pm
We’ve all had our fun.
Now let’s get everybody out alive.
But not until our valiant tourists have had a cold, harsh slap of reality. Please. They’re in sore need of a clue-by-four. The southern sea ice minimum is around when? March? It would be nice if Mother Nature relents only around then.
http://wikitravel.org/en/File:Antarctica_regions_map.png
Antarctica map showing Commonwealth Bay and McMurdo Station
Katherine says:
December 31, 2013 at 11:52 pm
“But not until our valiant tourists have had a cold, harsh slap of reality. ”
Maybe this will cure them of their denial…
ATheoK says:
“Did that sneaky old ice creep up in the darkness (at Antarctica in the summer!?) and surround them while they snoozed or played shufflegraph or whatever the CAGW faithful do when they’re having a good time. No, it was there and they cruised right into it.”
We know that the ice wasn’t there in too large of quantities when they got to their current location (otherwise they wouldn’t have gotten to said location – or in the very least getting there was much, much, much harder then they are letting on), was all of sudden surrounding them for 2-3 miles after they all went inside to finish their afternoon tea or whatever, and they are currently sitting at minimum 16 miles from open sea surrounded by ice that is up to at least 10 feet thick…
If this massive amount of nothing but old ice (probably 30-50 miles worth of it, at minimum) really was already in the nearby area and just started blowing around the boat at a speed quick enough to sneak up on the crew, then would it not be a bit of a miracle that the ship is still even upright at this point?
Turney’s family is on board – see photo three.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/photos/9566911/Trapped-ship-in-Antarctica
Turney was just interviewed on our ABC 7:30 programme and lamented that they were ;
1.Heading back and just 2nm from open ocean when the ice closed in,
2. the population of Adelie penguins had ‘crashed’ since Mawson’s visit
3. climate change had shifted the Antarctic wind patterns unfavourably.
No cross questioning by the ABC of course.
I fear that they are milking the publicity and sympathy factor for all it is worth.
Oh, I forgot the link about the carbon emission reduction programme.
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/our-legacy/
Am I envisaging this correctly? I’ve never been to Antarctica, but have seen pictures.
To count penguins and follow where Mawson trod they had to get onto the land (or at least ice/snow on the land) thus requiring the ship to sail through lots of loose sea ice. A large party of people are put onto the land and the trudge off as much as 8 miles away aiming to count penguins along the way. While they are away the weather changes and they are recalled. By the time they get back on board the weather is so bad that the captain decides to stop where they are rather than risk ramming the loose ice they sailed through on the way in.
My guess is that a 16 miles round trip would be at least 5 hours, quite possibly considerably longer depending on penguin counting and also the fitness level of the tourists.
Presumably a considerable delay occurred between noting the change in weather and actually getting everyone back on board. In fact, since visibility has dropped so much that sailing is stopped, presumably the last bit of the walk back would have been under atrocious conditions.
How many tourists are allowed onto the continent in a season? And are they allowed to travel away from the ship on an at least 5 hour trek, considerably longer if they were carrying serious emergency gear?
This 1932 article demonstrates that, unlike the modern era, the warming in the 1920/1940 period affected both poles whilst highlighting the continued retreat of the glaciers generally and in Greenland and Alaska specifically;
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/23150667?searchTerm=greenland%20%20melting&searchLimits=
“Some great world change is taking place on the Antarctic Continent. Its glaciers are shrinking. L.A. Bernacchi, who visited the South Polar land 30 years ago, says that the Great Ice Barrier which fronts the continent with a wall of ice for 250 miles has receded at least 30 miles since it was first seen and surveyed. Sir James Ross…on the earliest Antarctic expedition of the nineteenth century, and those who followed him, left clear descriptions of this tremendous ice frontage and its position. It was a cliff 150ft. high and 1000ft. thick. But now it appears to be continuing its century-long process of shrinking; and that process may have been going on for centuries. It might imply, unless it is offset by some increase of ice in another less explored part of the Antarctic, that the climate of the South Pole is changing and becoming warmer.
The shrinkage of the Alpine glaciers of Europe is a well-known and carefully measured fact. Professor Buchanan, of. Edinburgh, drew attention to it twenty years ago, and showed from old and accurate drawings of (many) that they were retreating rapidly. This led to the continuous measurement of the Swiss glaciers (and) examination of other glaciers of the Northern Hemisphere, Greenland, Alaska, and elsewhere. Prom these measurements many geologists concluded that the northern part of the globe was still recovering from the last of its Ice Ages, of which the more southerly of its glaciers in Europe were a relic. If all the glaciers of the Southern Hemisphere as well as those of the Northern are shrinking, the geologists would have a new problem to examine. It would be whether, instead of areas of cold and ice having shifted on the earth, the whole globe is growing warmer. Even if that could be shown the change might prove to be temporary.”
Historical note on Louis Bernacchi
“Bernacchi studied astronomy, magnetism, meteorology and physics at Melbourne Observatory and made significant contributions to science during his two Antarctic expeditions.”
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/about-antarctica/history/people/louis-bernacchi
tonyb
ATheoK says:
December 31, 2013 at 7:42 pm
“Richard Day says: December 31, 2013 at 3:45 pm
I hope they run out of food and fuel and heavy storms prevents any kind of rescue or food drops. Much hilarity ensues.”
How odd, just when suspiciously troll like comments start to crop up; along comes somebody who truly espouses the warmista methods.
Shame on you for even thinking any real humans share in such distressingly poor jocularity!
————————————————
re: espouses the warmista methods
it’s sad isn’t it. when the official party line, throughout the globe, is to raise energy and therefore all other prices, make people poor and brainwash them to think that a 1 in 20,000 part change in the atmosphere is what should drive official policy in so many areas of our lives.
*****BBC’S ANDREW LUCK-BAKER: BEGINS WITH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY – NOT SURE WE’LL BE HELICOPTER EVACUATED TOMORROW OR POSSIBLY AT ALL!!! WE WERE EXPECTING THE CHINESE ICE-BREAKER TO BE ALONGSIDE THE AUSTRALIAN ICE-BREAKING VESSEL & THEN THE HELICOPTER WOULD FLY TO GET US, BUT IT NOW TRANSPIRES THE CHINESE VESSELL HASN’T MOVED FOR A DAY, FAIRLY DEEP IN THE ICE, 10 MILES FROM THE ICE EDGE, & THERE’S CONCERN IT IS STUCK. FOR THE RESCUE TO GO AHEAD, THE TWO ICE-BREAKERS BOTH HAVE TO BE SIDE BY SIDE IN CLEAR WATER, SO THAT IS NOW UNCERTAIN IF THE CHINESE ICE-BREAKER IS STUCK AND THE AUSTRALIAN ICE-BREAKER IS UNABLE TO FREE IT:
1:43: AUDIO: BBC: Uncertainty over Antarctic helicopter rescue plan
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558853
He doesn’t sound happy.
pat says:
January 1, 2014 at 1:35 am
On the audio clip, when Andrew Luck-Baker says “Things are very much up on the air at the moment…” do you think he was he being sarcastic? I think he has a sarcastic-sounding surname. Just saying.
NotSure says: “If this massive amount of nothing but old ice […] then would it not be a bit of a miracle that the ship is still even upright at this point?”
The captain of Aurora Australis’ :
“It wasn’t all multi-year ice, there was some first-year ice, which can be thick, especially if it’s old first-year ice…”
http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/aurora-australis-abandons-attempt-to-save-akademik-shokalskiy-in-antarctica-20131230-302na.html
If icy water, formed in low temperatures, blow into their area the scientific conclusion is strange weather pattern due to climate change. 😉 Let’s hope the Russian ship is in good shape when ice breaks up. I guess they’ll need to be rescued if machinery is damaged.
“J. Herbst says:
January 1, 2014 at 12:55 am”
I have a picture of recovered swamp Kauri that is apparently ~4.5 million years old. As well as pictures of Tane Mahuta (The Father of the Forrest) I understand to be the last of the largest Kauri trees still living. My New Zealand citizenship tree, native Totara, is planted north of Wellington and if it lives to adulthood, will be 500 years old (I have to find that picture). But they are very slow growing trees.
Patrick says:
December 31, 2013 at 10:21 pm
Apparently a facor in this fiasco, as I have read in other blogs, is land-based ice is melting, running into the sea and freezing contributing to expanding sea ice and sea level rises.
__________________________
I read on another blog that Global Warming (mankind) is causing the increased sea ice by making the seas warmer. That’s right- warmer water means more ice. This idea has been proclaimed by the warmunist community since a “scientific- peer reviewed paper” (Zhang, 2007) was published. Do you think this might be a factor, too? Warmer water freezes more ice?
66° 38.000′ S 144° 41.000′ E
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/webcams/aurora
Send the Mann hockey team to rescue them. They can model their way out of the ice.
But watch out for that Divergence Problem.
I tried to post this on Intrepid Science’s Facebook page.
OK … I admit from the start that I am not a scientist so I probably don’t understand the scientific aspects of all this stuff. The only peer reviews I’d get are hardly laudable, let alone publishable … but ‘google’ is my friend.
You say in your facebook post that … “New Year’s day has been very wet and ridiculously warm. We have had temperatures up to 2˚C. But on the plus side it has rounded the edges of the ice and taken some of the pressure off the ship. Still poor visibility.”
I immediately felt for you and your resolute crew. I guess you’d rather be back at work as Professor of Climate Change at the UNSW rather than toughing it out with your fellow travellers.
However a casual ‘google’ search revealed that temperatures of “up to 2˚C” in December and January are pretty normal; in fact it more than doubles that “ridiculously warm” temperature and leaps to 5˚C in those months in the particular area in which you are embarrassingly stuck.
http://www.coolantarctica.com/Antarctica%20fact%20file/antarctica%20environment/climate_graph/climate_weather.htm
The “very wet” rain is hardly a scientific term but again it looks on a casual and uneducated glance at the records that this piece of Antarctica gets between 200mm and 400mm of rain.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/7f/File-Dgv-surfbal-1.gif
You must have struck a particularly average spell of ‘weather’ in Antarctica.
I’m in Adelaide and our annual average is 550mm or so and coincidentally we have today had some very wet rain.
The garden is looking good at the moment.
Keep morale high
Happy New Year everyone!
My brother, who is an amateur Arctic/Antarctic expeditions historian writes to me the following:
I do hope our Guardianista Warmists can restrain themselves from welcoming back their ‘heroes’ when they get airlifted back to civilisation. Any celebration would be an insult to so many worthy explorers who went before – and knew what it was to suffer.
Is the english translation of Akademik Shokalskiy, Academic’s Shonky? Just wondering…!
You’re a hard man Harry.
My goodness, they’ve been out of bananas and peanuts. How much human suffering should they bear?
cn
Aurora bow webcam now showing iced-up ship in distance.
Is it Akademik Shokalskiy or the Chinese icebreaker??
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/webcams/aurora
It’s a very bad episode for real science in Antarctica:
The Bolt Report (see updates)
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/somethings_cracking_and_its_not_the_ice_around_the_warmists_ship/
point out how folks that are waiting on supplies and science gear may lose another year — it IS summer and the window for shipping is very short.
Maybe some good will come out of this such as banning “climatologists” from waters south of 40 degrees South latitude.
Ice from last year – maybe they should have looked before leaving?
http://www.zen183332.zen.co.uk/CapeDenison.jpg
Teddi says:
December 31, 2013 at 9:32 pm
“Man-up and speak the truth about this horrendous cancer on science called AGW !”
——-
I am quite man enough; you come across as an over-entusiastic puppy 🙂
To restate the obvious: you are a propaganda gift for the thinking section of the CAGW crowd. These kind of battles are not won with excitement but with patience. Take the host of this site as an example and chill.
Am I the only one to find the most interesting aspect of this fiasco is the way the British media has managed to downplay and ignore its most damaging effects?
When you consider that the words “Rescue” and “Drama” and “Ship” have always been favorites of editors and headline writers, where have these words appeared in any headline or lead story this last week?
We seem to have entered the strange world of reporting-without-reporting in which “damage limitation” is more important than grabbing attention; “Damage Limitation” referring to their Global Warming religion.
Try, for instance, to find anywhere in the reportage the phrases “global warming” or “climate scientists” or any other related relevant information. From the way any mention of how the man-made global warming religion has been dealt yet another devastating blow, you might imagine the complete failure of the whole expedition was of no more importance than a sub-head “Man Burns Toast” or “Cat’s Paw prints Found on Desk.”
The BBC managed to avoid nearly all mention of this event, relegating it to a few tiny paragraphs near the foot of their web pages, and just skimmed over it in a matter of seconds on their TV reports. Consequently, viewers and readers are still largely ignorant of the facts, and it never made the list of the top ten items “Shared” or even the top twenty items “Viewed.” You have to hand it to the BBC: they know how to bury inconvenient truths like no other.
The Guardian tried ignoring the story, then publishing it with no mention of why the ship full of AGW worshipers, that they had sponsored, were there in the first place. Then they tried their usual trick of “spinning” the story so that global cooling was really a manifestation of global warming. That didn’t fly with their readers, so they responded with heavy censoring of the CiF comments, then disabling the readers’ comments completely, then allowing some comments again before finally following the BBC and relegating the whole thing to a minor incident of little or no importance at the bottom of their web page, and a tiny report on the inside page of their printed edition. The only mention today on the Guardian’s website is a link to a video of those trapped on the ship having a great New Year’s party.
The rest of the British media followed in similar style, the massive implications of these events being completely ignored, this time.
Maybe the party’s nearly over?
DirkH says:
December 31, 2013 at 9:30 am
You don’t know what you are talking about!!!
Looks like the Party goers have upset the real Scientists after their resupply ship/Icebreaker was diverted from its real job to go to the aid of these idiots.
Joe McConnell writes ..
Greetings from Casey Station on the East Antarctic coast. I’ve just returned from the deep field site at Aurora Basin where the Australians are drilling a new 400-meter ice core which we will analyze in my lab in Reno.
I’m writing with regards to the rescue effort for that tourist ship stuck in the ice near Commonwealth Bay and the enormous impact of the rescue effort on Antarctic science programs. The Australian ice breaker Aurora Australis was here at Casey in the process of unloading the coming year’s supplies for the station, as well as a number of researchers and their science gear for this summer’s activities, when the emergency response request was issued. The Australians shut down the unloading very quickly and left within a few hours after the request arrived but only about a third of the resupply was completed and a lot of that science gear was still on board. Before they left they at least were able to get the passengers including six Aurora Basin researchers off the ship. Otherwise I’d still be at Aurora Basin and would have had to stay to the end of January since my field replacement was in that group.
The short- and long-term impacts on the Australian science program are pronounced as you can imagine and I understand it is the same for both the Chinese and French programs since their icebreakers were diverted, too. I’ll be sitting down to New Year’s Eve dinner in a few minutes with a number of Australian researchers including the director of the Australian Antarctic Division Tony Fleming – many of these guys can’t complete the research they’ve been planning for years because some or all of their science gear still is on the Aurora.
——————–
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/31/rescue-effort-for-trapped-antarctic-voyage-disrupts-serious-science/?smid=tw-share&_r=0
Oh dear.
Here’s one for you Dirky … http://gcaptain.com/alaskans-express-concerns-arctic/
How about this account of a Mawson Centenary trip I came across when seeking more info on the B09B berg? Note the dateline.
Is it deja vue all over again?
Douglas Mawson centenary trip to Antarctica frozen as cold reality sets in
MATTHEW DENHOLM, ANTARCTICA THE AUSTRALIAN DECEMBER 21, 2011 12:00AM
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/hea….-1226227156367#
Forewarned was not, unfortunately forearmed in the case of Prof Turney!
Sasha says:
January 1, 2014 at 4:07 am
___________
natural response to gun to head
Nik says:
December 31, 2013 at 8:41 am
Anybody want to crowd fund me for “Party at the Pole”?
________________________
Are you a stripper?
Journalist on board Aurora confirms they are closing in on Chinese icebreaker Xue Long
https://twitter.com/colincosier/status/418287641621057536/photo/1
JB says:
January 1, 2014 at 4:15 am
“Here’s one for you Dirky …”
You’re showing me a picture of a drilling rig being towed away from pack ice to prove what exactly? My point maybe?
Alan Watt re “operating at marginal conditions”
They certainly were, Nothing more marginal in the book than being stranded like that, unable to be rescued, apart from hitting an iceberg.The master won’t have another command, but at least he didn’t abandon his ship and crew and passengers like the supremely shameful master of the Costa Concordia.
From 2011
http://www.timeslive.co.za/scitech/2011/12/21/iceberg-delays-antarctic-centenary
“Three tourist ships that have been attempting to reach the cape as part of 100-year commemorations of the legendary voyage had to ditch their plans due to rare conditions caused by a mammoth iceberg, an official said.
“There is unusual ice conditions that’s affecting all the tourist ships that are going down there because the tourist ships don’t have icebreaking capabilities, and they also don’t have choppers,” a spokeswoman from the Australian government’s Antarctic division told AFP.
“So their ability to get anywhere near that Mawson’s huts area is basically stopped.” The B9B iceberg, which is about the size of Luxembourg, is grounded at the cape’s entrance and preventing what is known as fast ice — sea ice frozen along the coast — from moving as freely as normal, the spokeswoman said.
“There’s also heavy pack ice around the area as well, so there’s kind of a combination of things really,” she added.”
David Sims says:
January 1, 2014 at 4:54 am
From 2011
http://www.timeslive.co.za/scitech/2011/12/21/iceberg-delays-antarctic-centenary
“Three tourist ships that have been attempting to reach the cape as part of 100-year commemorations of the legendary voyage had to ditch their plans due to rare conditions caused by a mammoth iceberg, an official said.
***********************************************
So no mention of the climate scientists undertaking groundbreaking research. And these “rare conditions” have been known about for 3 years. It’s January 1 right? Not April 1?
So with Prof Turney know in charge of a “tourist ship” according to MSM, shouldn’t he add “Failed Antarctic Tourist Guide — Dec 2013– present” on his CV?
“now” not “know” — sorry for the typo
Here is second article on it , in the Daily Mail. Even when the BBC and the Guardian are mis-reporting it some news is getting out there.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2532013/A-dose-COLD-reality-The-ironic-saga-eco-campaigners-trying-highlight-global-warming-melting-ice-caps-trapped-freezing-Antarctic.html
By I notice WUWT’s readers commenting on it. Oh do so love the Irony of the whole event.
Aurora is making a go for the Chinese ice-breaker.
But they have only moved about 20 metres in the last 1.5 hours and there is a long way to go. (Port camera shows the ship in the distance).
http://images.aad.gov.au/webcams/aurora/14/A140011230C.jpg
http://images.aad.gov.au/webcams/aurora/14/A140011100C.jpg
Another hour, another 10 metres.
http://images.aad.gov.au/webcams/aurora/14/A140011331C.jpg
@ cynical-scientist at Dec 31st, 9:46 pm:
“The ship almost certainly WAS trapped by older multiyear ice which broke free somewhere else,”
How do you know how much of it is multilayer and why does it really matter?
“was blown by the wind to block them in, and then refroze in place around the ship.”
Who is denying the mobility of sea ice? According to their theory, a sea ice dearth was the problem and was a major motive for their expedition. They are now paying the price for their dumbness and the ice’s lack of absence.
“Turney is quite correct to offer this explanation and does not deserve ridicule for it. Those who seem to think several metres of sea ice suddenly just froze around the ship need to check the temperatures in the area.”
No one that I have seen is saying that the ice was formed as they were sailing. I think we are mostly aware, that regardless of the ice’s age, it hadn’t melted with the summer (as they badly hoped it would). If they had digested the graph (linked below), like the rest of us, they would have accepted that there has been a positive anomaly for Antarctica (overall) for all of 2013. They would have known that expecting unusually low sea ice was futile. They would have noted that sea ice in the Antarctic has been increasing for 30 years. They might have instead gone to the Arctic with their expensive media stunt. They are rightfully being ridiculed for being remarkably (though not unexpectedly) stupid.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
There is some irony in a Global Warmist/Climate Changist being stuck in Ice and in Danger of Freezing, not heat stroke. But let’s be fair. The Climate changes. It always has. What is not fair is that the Cult of Global Warming has now changed their name to the Cult of Climate Change because all their theories and models aren’t panning out. So now they if its hot they say its man made climate change, if its cold its the same, if there are hurricanes if there aren’t. Artic Ice has been declining, but they told us that the summer of 2013 there wouldn’t be any more artic ice and instead there was 27% more than last year. No real explanation as to why their models are all wrong about the earth getting warmer. It hasn’t for the last 15 years. No explanation for why the Antartic Ice Cap is at record size and thickness? They call skeptics Climate Deniers, but they don’t seem to bother with Science anymore. They just point to the weather and scream Climate Change. When you point out that we’ve always had weather, and tornados, and hurricanes, and droughts, and floods they just call you a climate denier. I hope that Mr Turney isn’t one of those and is really trying to nail down the science. What we need is more science, More willingness to share the science and answer question, including questions from skeptics, and far less alarmism, invective, fraud, manipulation, intimidation and outright politics from the Global Warmist side. In short stop acting like some cult, or the Catholic Church in the time of Galileo, and start acting like responsible scientists.
Yep, 2,500 odd square km of pack ice just ‘snuck up’ on ’em!…
:large
ABC $1.5 million expedition to Antarctica.
http://s446.photobucket.com/user/bobclive/media/Rec_zpsfb36118b.mp4.html
http://www.theage.com.au/travel/travel-news/antarctica-rescue-aurora-australis-spots-stricken-akademik-shokalskiy-20140101-3067g.html
“The Shokalskiy has been trapped by thick sea ice since Christmas Day. There is now about 22 kilometres of ice between the ship and open water.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/antarctica-rescue-aurora-australis-spots-stricken-akademik-shokalskiy-20140101-3067g.html#ixzz2p9s6UrcA
SMH/The Age now relegating the story to their “Travel” section — obviously in tune with it becoming a “tourist ship.” I feel sick.
@_Jim: (and others )
>On position reports: Some of these vessels may be equipped with VHF-band only radio position transmitters (vs Inmarsat satellite),
Being a commercial vessel it will have a full GMDSS communications set up for sea Area A4.
If you go to the Inmarsat web site and look in the directory section you will see that they have a full Inmarsat fit for data, email and voice. You will also see that the telephone number is
Numbers: 762882967 [Voice Service]
To call you would dial international code (00 in the UK, 01 in the US I believe) 870 then the above number.
However I think the system uses goestationay satellites and is not brilliant below 70degrees N or S – satellites to low on the horizon.
Alernatively you could try MF radio, using an individual routine DSC call. The MMSI is 273458210 (from ITU website). Select your frequency band with care given the range (and time of day).
Allthough the above information is public I don’t think you should bother them. They may be busy.
Sorry for the repost – mistyped the handle.
Teddi says:
December 31, 2013 at 9:32 pm
“Man-up and speak the truth about this horrendous cancer on science called AGW !”
——-
I am quite man enough; you come across as an over-enthusiastic puppy 🙂
To restate the obvious: you are a propaganda gift for the thinking section of the CAGW crowd. These kind of battles are not won with excitement but with patience. Take the host of this site as an example and chill.
It was even the same ship, the Shokalskiy, that was impeded by ice back in 2011 when trying to approach Commonwealth Bay. Here is a photo of it in 2011.
http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2011/12/20/1226227/053646-211211-mawson-039-s-hut-expedition.jpg
Here the scientists “sing” about their predicament:
As near as I can make out, their “song” starts off;
“We’re the AAE who have traveled far
Having fun doing science in Antartica
Lots of snow and lots of ice
Lots of penguins which are Very Very nice.
Waiting for food and for company
But, a bloody great shame, we are still stuck here!
Ice core cha-cha-cha! Ice core cha-cha-cha! Ice core cha-cha-cha! Ice core cha-cha-cha!
Bloody idiots.
A new book coming our way based on a classic.
https://twitter.com/m4gw/status/418123388712783872/photo/1
Wind 11 knots at Mawson station. It doesn’t get much better than that.
http://www.antarctica.gov.au/webcams/mawson
So much for scientific observation. Prof. Turney has just stated in an interview on the ABC that the Adelie penguin is about 30 cm tall whereas the Australian Antarctic Division website has them standing 70 cm tall. Could it be he didn’t get too close or maybe he counted the wrong species!
If he is correct could Global Warming have caused the Adelie to shrink to less than half it’s size to cope with the heat?
Did the crew actually rely on MODELLED ice thickness data before entering this area?!
Re that satellites cannot measure ice thickness….allowing the usual suspects to MODEL 1 m ice in areas with 3 m, as finally reported by the ice breaker vessels?
re: Nic says January 1, 2014 at 6:53 am
See follow-on post to the one you replied to which describes the publicly-accessible marine position-reporting ‘system’ accessible by the public at no cost, due to the requirement from December 2004 onward, in which the International Maritime Organization (IMO) requires all vessels over 299GT to carry an AIS transponder from which the website marinetraffic.com along with participating partners in the field near coastlines ‘captures’ ship data transmissions which includes vessel position.
An excerpt from the ‘About’ page on the website http://www.marinetraffic.com/ to which others have posted links depicting ‘ship’ movement tracking:
About the Marine Traffic project This web site is part of an open, community-based project. It is dedicated in collecting and presenting data which are exploited in research areas, such as but not limited to the following:
– Study of marine telecommunications in respect of efficiency and propagation parameters
…
– Interactive information systems design
…
It provides free real-time information to the public, about ship movements and ports, mainly across the coast-lines of many countries around the world.
I’m sure the video of smiling, singing scientists will bring relief to their friends and family. But to the rest of the world, and as many rescuers are risking their own lives, it seems in very poor taste.
In one of the photos I see two people holding up a Guardian banner. Is that the same Guardian that published this story today?
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/31/planet-will-warm-4c-2100-climate
Another story warning about impending catastrophe. At least this time, they picked a date far enough out that most of us will not be a live to see it (and see how wrong their model is).
DirkH says:
January 1, 2014 at 4:48 am
As I said before … you do not know what you are talking about!
http://www.huismanequipment.com/en/products/drilling/jbf_14000/jbf_arctic
http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/Arctic33-1-168.pdf
If the ship survives this fiasco, she should be renamed the Akademik Lysenko.
richard says:
“Gullible’s Iceland”.
Stop it! The humor is almost too much to bear. This story truly is the gift that keeps on giving (for us “climate heretics”, anyway).
Thank you for the very informative post.
.
Yet again the flimsy, repeatedly falsified. idiotically simplistic hypothesis that CO2 controls the climate system of the earth is crushed by cold, cruel, icy reality.
Con-Tiki.
Or has that one been done?
Anthony’s 3rd update is surreal. ROTFLMAO!
If you want a good laugh, head over to SkS blog and get a load of the cartoon mid-way down on the home page. It depicts a Titanic reconstruction cruise ship heading for an iceberg that melts before a collision can occur.
Perhaps an enterprising reader with graphics arts talent would like to alter this cartoon for our viewing pleasure. It’s also worthwhile to have a look about to get a feel for the relative differences in quality between WUWT and SkS. The article concerning the disappearing Arctic ice, (complete with a misleading reconstruction) is pure unadulterated propaganda.
http://www.skepticalscience.com
P.S. Judging by the number of comments posted, it would seem that event die hard alarmists have grown wary of being made fools when attempting to parrot SKS’s half-truths on skeptical blogs.
This melted fresh water causing greater sea ice formation nonsense reminds me of the fools from my childhood loading up the ice cube trays with hot water, claiming it causes the ice cubes to freeze faster. I see those folks are still with us. It took the development of the automatic icemaker to end the former foolishness. What will it take to eliminate the present one?
Fascinating old images from Antarctica: http://www.imaging-resource.com/news/2013/12/27/on-ice-100-year-old-negative-discovered-in-antarctic-ice
Hugh “In one of the photos I see two people holding up a Guardian banner.”
Yes, and the Antarctica depicted on the flag doesn’t show any sea ice, does it? Guardianistas!
The disconnect with reality is truly disturbing, but sadly is not limited to just the green movement.
Pash says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:39 am
So much for scientific observation. Prof. Turney has just stated in an interview on the ABC that the Adelie penguin is about 30 cm tall whereas the Australian Antarctic Division website has them standing 70 cm tall. Could it be he didn’t get too close or maybe he counted the wrong species!
If he is correct could Global Warming have caused the Adelie to shrink to less than half it’s size to cope with the heat?
———————————
Here is a video that Turney can study, once he has watched it a few times he may understand the process.
JB:
In reply to Mr Green Genes, at December 31, 2013 at 8:14 am you say
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/30/the-antarctic-research-fiasco-would-you-could-you-in-a-boat/#comment-1519010
I cannot speak for Mr Green Genes but – in common with all moral people – I am dismayed that anyone would object to oil exploration in the Arctic.
Indeed, I am outraged that the Greenpeace hooligans were given an unwarranted pardon for their attempted piracy of an Arctic oil rig. In a just world those Greenpeace criminals would have been locked-up and the key thrown away for their placing at risk the lives of oil workers heroically operating in the harshness of polar conditions. Furthermore, the BBC’s support for the criminal acts of these despicable Greenpeace “activists” is unforgiveable.
It seems that Greenpeace, Turney, and other ‘green’ loonies think polar conditions are not hostile. And, in support of their lunacy, they are willing to put anyone at risk. How many people have already had to risk their lives in attempts to rescue the passengers on the ship of fools now trapped in the Antarctic ice?
Those passengers – and it seems you – expect others to suffer the deprivations of so-called ‘renewable’ energy while expecting the right to use fossil fuels for their own nefarious activities.
They and you can have no excuses for your actions and statements which deserve only contempt and disdain. In this thread they are only being treated to ridicule which – in my opinion – is nowhere near sufficient condemnation.
Richard
Tallbloke and I are tweeting about the question whether the expedition has made up an order of precedence for the helicopter evacuation. Even if the Chinese can fly, it only can take 12 at a time and needs 6 transfers (plus 3 transfers of the barge from the Aurora Australis to get them over to that ship at 22 people according to @Itsthesunstupid). So I guess it will be interesting to see who arrives on the chinese ship first and, if not all transfers can be made, who was considered least necessary to return to civilisation.
Will the women go first? Random luck of the draw? By age? Alphabetic? By usefulness to the cause? Media before scholar?
U.S. Coastguard ice breaker Polar Star is closing on Sydney at 6.7 kn/258 heading. From Marine Traffic site (2014-01-01 17:17). The ship left Honolulu doing almost 18 kn. Anyone have a guess why the slow down?
@Kaboom: I think they will have to write a computer model to work out the best order. Run it a few dozen times to make sure the results can be reproduced. So the order will be;
1. Computer modelers
2. everyone else
Kaboom, it’s women and children first, of course.
Now the only question is how you define children?
The one wanting his mom’s milkshake should qualify.
“Bruce Cobb says: January 1, 2014 at 7:11 am
Bloody idiots.”
Right on. Can you imagine the impact their “Mitch Miller Sing-Along” video will have if one or more rescuers are injured or killed extricating these buffoons from their folly? We came to party, People died. We partied on! is not an epitaph that will sit well with the public.
Reed Coray says:
January 1, 2014 at 9:46 am
“Bruce Cobb says: January 1, 2014 at 7:11 am
Bloody idiots.”
Right on. Can you imagine the impact their “Mitch Miller Sing-Along” video will have if one or more rescuers are injured or killed extricating these buffoons from their folly? We came to party, People died. We partied on! is not an epitaph that will sit well with the public.
_________________________
On the other hand, it’s the perfect metaphor for the entire warmunist effort.
The slow down of the Polar Star. Perhaps the captain is a skeptic who’s savoring the irony.
richardscourtney says:
January 1, 2014 at 9:16 am
__________________
Haven’t you been the stranger…
faboutlaws says
Ever hear of the Mpemba effect ?
The Guardian has interesting beginnings. From Wiki:
“In August 2013, The Guardian in paper form had an average daily circulation of 189,000 copies, behind The Daily Telegraph and The Times, but ahead of The Independent.[3] The newspaper’s online edition was the third most widely read in the world as of June 2012.[4] Its combined print and online editions reach nearly 9 million readers.[5]
Founded in 1821 by John Edward Taylor in Manchester, the 11 members of the first Little Circle excluding William Cowdroy, Jnr. of the Manchester Gazette decided to advance their liberalist agenda. They helped then cotton merchant John Edward Taylor form the Manchester Guardian, which he edited for the rest of his life and they all wrote for. With backing from the non-conformist Little Circle group of local businessmen, The Manchester Guardian replaced the radical Manchester Observer, which championed the Peterloo Massacre protesters. The paper currently identifies with social liberalism. In the last UK general election in 2010, the paper supported the Liberal Democrats, who went on to form a coalition government with the Conservatives. The paper is influential in the design and publishing arena, sponsoring many awards in these areas.”
@SAsha 4:07.
No you are not alone.
Watch the video of the man child reporter, whining about his bed, having to work and injuring himself…there seems to be a flicker of recognition creeping into his mind, of the actual risk of an icy doom that is so easily acquired at the poles.
That same flicker of cognition is spreading through the TV watchers of the world, viewership is falling, readers/subscribers are leaving, people check the news on the internet.
The word for reporter is Presstitute, by their actions they proclaim themselves.
Canada has CBC and CTV, who act exactly as described by yourself,a selective failure to report, what I would call lying by omission, propaganda in old english.
This ship of CAGW fools and profiteers stuck in the summer icepack, is a gift to any journalist who wishes to entertain and inform their audience, but that apparently is old world journalism, the new and improved journalists are censors for the cult.
We used to call them priests, shills or public relations agents.
Such hopeless rearguard actions by these press agencies, such as avoiding coverage of the absolute irony of this saga,evading the basic facts, are just too funny in the age of the internet.
We cannot get timely situation updates with 5″journalists” on the activist vessel and how many more on the Aurora?
As a side note, democracy had a privileged place for the 4th estate, as it is necessary to have a free press to check the natural excess of politicians(Who by nature do not understand limits of decency). As the press sold themselves and us out, our democracy has morphed into Kleptocracy.
The drama of the ship of tools and the cone of silence by the MSM is a very amusing start to 2014, happy new year.
Speaking of models and songs, somehow a “spirit of ‘I am the very model of a modern Major-General’ ” adapted to the current situation would be in order…same sort of hubris seems to be in unlimited supply with Christmas Turkey & co. I fear that the master of the ship will end up taking the brunt of the blame for this fiasco, even if he’s not at fault (though as master he probably bears responsibility in any case).
If this weather forecast is accurate, the window for a rescue is about to open.
http://www.yr.no/place/Antarctica/Other/Commonwealth_Bay/
Just checked the marinetraffic.com website minutes ago and seeing these values:
2 minutes ago (source AIS: 65)
Speed / Course: 8.6kn / 256 °
About another 24 hrs to get into Sydney if that is the destination.
I did my part to help rescue them
I took an unnecessary drive inmy SUV
Maybe the extra global warming that caused will help free these deluded fools
Here is the latest SITREP from the AA: Last night we raised over $500 for Camp Quality from a Quiz Night run by a couple of our expeditioners. There was much bribery and corruption with the ability to buy answers if you wished. This option was very advantageous for Camp Quality. If you were deemed to have transgressed in any real or perceive way you were sent to the sin bin and required to listen to Justin Bieber for 5 minutes – the same song on repeat. It was a great way to celebrate New Year’s Eve and we thank the organisers. Excitement has been growing this afternoon as we are moving closer to the Xue Long. At time of writing we are 4 nautical miles away. This is a slow process as we zig zag through the pack creeping ever nearer. It is amazing seeing what an icebreaker can do. Good news is that the Akademik Shokalskiy can see us. Cheers Leanne and Mark
Jonathan Hampton says:
January 1, 2014 at 11:26 am
I did my part to help rescue them
I took an unnecessary drive inmy SUV
Maybe the extra global warming that caused will help free these deluded fools
_______________________
Good Lord, man! Don’t you know you just made things worse? Everyone knows that Man-made Global Warming has caused more sea ice to form in the Southern Ocean, because the Climate Change Scientists have told us so. If you don’t believe me, go have a look at Skeptical Science, where they’ve even posted a scientific study as proof (Zhang, 2007). http://www.skepticalscience.com/Why-is-Antarctic-sea-ice-increasing.html
Don’t you know that warmer water means more ice forms?
What have you done?
/
Mr. Watts, as someone who has actually been on a research expedition (to Greenland) I find your ignorance on these matters quite surprising for someone who holds themselves up as a strong critic of climate science.
– First off, this doesn’t fit the definition of irony. A group of scientists who (despite what you lead your readers to believe) are aware of increasing sea ice in that part of Antarctica, got caught in the sea ice they knew was there. You also appear to completely miss (intentional or otherwise) their reasoning for visiting this particular area. This leg involved studying why sea ice was getting trapped in this particular area, and the possible effects the presence of one of the world’s largest icebergs was having. That is a far cry from them simply being on a “propaganda tour” to show people that ice is disappearing.
– #2 The presence of non-scientists on such boats has absolutely nothing to do with the scientific merits of such an expedition. Since there are limited opportunities to see Antarctica, and many people have interest, having individuals fill space on a vessel who are willing to pay their way is a common and understandable practice. These people are along for the ride. Given your obviously non-expansive experience on these matters, perhaps you can attempt explaining why you think this somehow discredits the expedition?
– #3 Re your criticism of the scientists for getting themselves stuck: the scientists don’t drive the boat. The owner provides a crew and captain who presumably has experience navigating such waters. The expedition leader can set the desired course, but the scientists are not experienced mariners and it is up to the captain to determine when and where it is safe to proceed. In Greenland I saw disagreements between the expedition leader and the boat captain over whether it was safe to proceed into a large iceberg field. The captain is responsible for the boat.
– #4 In your separate blog post on the matter, you refute the claim of these scientists that sea ice is increasing in the Arctic by using a plot with a timescale from September-December of this year. This is pretty blatantly taking the scientists out of context, as no one argues that sea ice in the Arctic does not increase as we head into winter. The obvious point they were making is that we have been seeing a trend of less and less sea ice each year in the Arctic., not that ice doesn’t increase between the end of summer and beginning of winter.
-#5 You imply that “no real science is being done on this trip”. Do tell how you reach this rather emphatic conclusion? I see nothing but speculation on your part, and it is clearly the speculation of someone who does not sound like he has ever been on any scientific expeditions.
-#6 People on the boat snapping pictures of themselves for twitter does not imply that this is some sort of party boat. People going to Antarctica tend to bring cameras and like to document the experience. The fact that they are keeping high spirits while stuck upsets you why? Would you rather them tweet pictures of themselves bitching like the passengers on those stranded Carnival cruise lines? Would chaos be the proper response?
In conclusion, this episode is not some scientific “fiasco”. They went into a situation they knew was risky, and got stuck. If they truly were expecting there to be no sea ice, and this happened, you’d have a point. Of course their own words point out that they were more than well aware of the fact, THEY WERE THERE TO STUDY IT!
Hey Glenn…while the episode did not start as a fiasco, it certainly has developed into one.
conservation of Shackelton’s hut : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MjS0YRBwPg
oh and the 114 year old whiskey they found there:…
http://whiskythaw.canterburymuseum.com/
fiasco…noun… a thing that is a complete failure, esp. in a ludicrous or humiliating way.
IMHO it sounds very accurate in describing how this expedition has SO FAR developed.
Glen: you are correct. They are serious scientists, who are in danger, and putting their rescuers in danger.
The seriousness of the situation is pointed out by the ships doctor. They are running low on alcohol, but they need to stay sober to be evac’ed, and horrors! they will be evac’ed to a dry ship!
Oh, the humanity!
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/12/31/helicopter-rescue-needed-for-passengers-on-icebound-ship/
Wonder if the likes of Greenpeace, WWF, Suzuki foundation, Hollywood rich warmers, IPCC etc. will come up with money to help cover recue expenses? What silence.
hi Glen
why are the kids there ?
Glenn:
Thankyou for your post at January 1, 2014 at 11:50 am
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/30/the-antarctic-research-fiasco-would-you-could-you-in-a-boat/#comment-1520439
I appreciate the laugh you have given me and I thank you for it. But that is not the reason for my post.
You have spelled-out the claims likely to be foisted as excuses for this ludicrous fiasco. Forewarned is forearmed. We now know what to prepare for when those excuses appear in the media so we can prepare the ridicule those excuses so richly deserve. Thankyou.
Richard
Glenn,
They were there to study what is making the ice disappear. If the irony of their getting stuck in the very ice they claim is disappearing is lost on you, then, soldier on, thanks for coming…
@Glenn – “as someone who has actually been on a research expedition.” Really?
Apollo 13, and its astronauts, returned because the best-of-the-best ‘relied’ on applied knowledge of math, science, engineering and other classical studies to solve problems. They loved the idea of computers but they relied on their slide rules. Together they crafted, and executed, one of the most successful evacuations ever. But then we we’re arguably the best in the world in math and science. I was fortunate enough to learn to ski, toboggan and fish with one of them.
Unfortunately, dodos in parad-ice, haven’t a clue.
Glenn, you say this is a far cry from being a propaganda tour.
You say you know as one who has been on such a research trip, to Greenland.
So how many journalists did your “research” vessel carry?
This one has five.
At least the most important part of Apollo 13, protecting all astronauts, returned.
Our President says math is too complext. Perhaps it is?
bbc’s Andrew Luck-Baker on bbc world service a couple of hours ago. didn’t hear the start, but at the end he was asked if – when it’s over – the trip will be viewed as a success or failure. he paused briefly, to feign careful consideration, & declared it would be “as a success” because (presumably) the scientists on this trip have discovered a particular penguin’s numbers are badly depleted.
this bbc page has the rest of the news on that broadcast, but not a peep about the Luck-Baker interview.
http://www.bbc.com/news/
bbc has now documented the Luck-Baker interview on the Xue Long being trapped:
31 Dec: BBC: Rescue for Antarctic ice-bound ship under threat
However, the captain of the Xue Long has told the Shokalskiy that he is keeping his vessel in a “holding position”.
The Aurora Australis, is now understood to be planning to carve through the dense thick pack to assist the Xue Long…
Under the initial plan, the remaining crew members would have stayed on board until another, more powerful US icebreaker arrived in up to 10 days’ time, the BBC’s Andrew Luck-Baker reports from on board the Akademik Shokalskiy
However, it may now be that all of those on board may have to wait for the US icebreaker, the Polar Star, he adds…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25558276
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 11:50 am
_______________________
Glenn,
I’m not the least impressed with you false indignant display. Do you get equally indignant at the thought of the tens of thousands of documented deaths because of the policies advocated by those on that ship of fools and advocated by you? Do you just dismiss those human deaths as collateral damage to your plan, or are their deaths part of your plan?
Trapped here in ice
I’m getting bored
In layman’s terms
Out of my gourd
So get us out!
You hoi-polloi!
I’ve tired of my
Antarctic toy!
A bummer too
Our agit-prop
Has proven such
A PR flop
But worst of all
I feel the strain
Of life without
My gravy-train
****
So as the proles
Do toil and grunt
To save us from
Our little stunt
Befitting hive-
Aristocrats
It’s party-time
For us spoiled-brats
Thus our self-worth
We justify
And try to keep
Our spirits hgh!
***
And not for us
To praise serfs’ guts
Nor care “the help”
Might lose their butts
For members of
Our lordly class
Disdain the plebs
Who save our ass
***
One “selfie” more
Now let me take
And bitch I’ve no
Peanut Milkshake!
And that’s you know
No hardship slight
Just ask any
Hive-parasite!
M Courtney says:
January 1, 2014 at 12:38 pm
“Glenn, you say this is a far cry from being a propaganda tour.
You say you know as one who has been on such a research trip, to Greenland.
So how many journalists did your “research” vessel carry?
This one has five.”
Credible researches would not allow one. They taste too much like chicken and this distracts too much from research.
Glenn,
“What Darwin Said”
This is how it works.
Did these guys know how to use the internet?
Scroll down this page and look at the map of where they are stuck.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2531159/Antarctic-crew-build-ice-helipad-help-rescuers.html
Now look at the current satellite ice maps of those areas. They appear to have been better to use skis and sled dogs.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/antarctic.seaice.color.000.png
http://tinyurl.com/n5m3bh3
You call that a polar research vessel?
This is a polar research vessel.
Dear Neptune, great thunderer of the Seas, please give the University back their climatologists and press workers, when we get our incandescent bulbs back. (: (;
You’re new to this news, aren’t you Glenn? Or did you just get told to visit the site and spin baby spin?
Every day has a new stories on why and how the ship of AGW fools got stuck. You’ve just added completely new ones for both how and why.
Your stories directly contradict what the stuck chief fools stated just the other day.
I’m glad you know more because you’ve been to Greenland than the people in the boat stuck in Antarctica, that could soon be dining on unknown species of penguins.
@Zeke, Zeus thundered while Neptune swam. Universities will never recover because they’re run by idiots. Then again my cat was named Zeke and he still is.
Re the journalists on this fiasco; recall the real scientific expedition, the one that has been abandoned by the Aurora Australis in order to help rescue the tourists. As far as I can make out, there is not one journalist there. They had hoped to do real science – boring stuff, best left alone. For headlines, you need Adventures!
One wonders when the supply of the real scientific expedition will be completed.
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 11:50 am
” – #4 In your separate blog post on the matter, you refute the claim of these scientists that sea ice is increasing in the Arctic by using a plot with a timescale from September-December of this year … ”
” … The obvious point they were making is that we have been seeing a trend of less and less sea ice each year in the Arctic. , not that ice doesn’t increase between the end of summer and beginning of winter.”
——
I don’t want to pre-empt an answer by the host of this blog, but after a quick scan of your points I can only conclude that there might be others who are better qualified than you are to do PR for this expedition. Seems like a bit of a contradiction at point 4 or am I missing something? I can’t make out whether you (or those that you are supporting) claim that sea ice is increasing or decreasing in the Arctic.
Some helpful hints (since you are clearly new to civilised debate):
-When looking down your nose in surprise at other people’s ignorance, it is best to keep your story straight. It is even better not to adopt this kind of attitude at all if you want to be taken seriously by the rest of us.
– CAPS never help you to convince rational people of your point – just trust me on this one.
– Bluster gets you nowhere here. Do cite some references other than yourself (qualified as you might be in your own mind.)
– Your opinion might not be the most important thing on this blog (Difficult to accept I know, but that’s just the way it is.)
Welcome and I do hope that you will benefit from the above advice so that proper discussion can begin.
On the other hand, Old Data, in the Etruscan Pantheon there were eight or nine gods and goddesses who wielded lightning, mostly for beneficial reasons, such as giving signs and direction to the suppliant.
And it is the return to the simple incandescent light bulb, which captures that lightning, that I have humbly asked for. Hail and hecatombs to all, for a return to the simple, non toxic, one dollar, non volatilized mercury-based, 60 watt incandescent light bulb.
@MichaelMoon
You said “They were there to study what is making the ice disappear.” In their own words they said [CAPS mine for emphasis]: “We came to Antarctica to study how one of the biggest icebergs in the world has altered the system by TRAPPING ICE”.
Glenn-
#1-“This leg involved studying why sea ice was getting trapped in this particular area, and the possible effects the presence of one of the world’s largest icebergs was having.”
Everyone KNOWS why sea ice is getting trapped in this particular area-the Mertz glacier tongue break-off in 2010 no longer protects the area and directs random sea ice out to open water. And WIND. DUH. Basic physics.
2# I have no problem with paying passengers being along for the ride.
3# The captain IS responsible for the boat being stuck. But who HIRED that captain and ship? The SAME ship got stuck in 2011 attempting to access Commonwealth Bay on a similar expedition and had to turn back. Did Turney do his homework? Did he know this? Did Turney know about all the OTHER ship/expeditions that have had to turn back since 2010? If he didn’t, he’s an idiot. If he DID, and thought he could win against the ICE that has been trapping ships in this exact same area for three years and went anyway, he’s an egotistical idiot.
#4 YOU said: In your separate blog post on the matter, you refute the claim of these scientists that sea ice is increasing in the Arctic by using a plot with a timescale from September-December of this year. This is pretty blatantly taking the scientists out of context, as no one argues that sea ice in the Arctic does not increase as we head into winter. The obvious point they were making is that we have been seeing a trend of less and less sea ice each year in the Arctic., not that ice doesn’t increase between the end of summer and beginning of winter.”
Um…first of all, THESE scientists are stuck in Antarctica, NOT the Arctic. And you seem to not know that a “plot with a timescale from September-December of this year” would NOT be heading into winter in Antarctica, it would be heading OUT OF winter and into Spring/Summer there. These scientists ARE INDEED “claiming that sea ice is increasing” in Antarctica during the SUMMER (which is why Anthony and the rest of us are incredulous) and they claim it is because the LAND ice is melting, and then the “fresh water” (from land) is running into the sea and forming sea ice AND because it’s so WARM down there that the ice shelves are compromised and collapsing and breaking off etc. They are pretending that there is a TREND of MORE and MORE sea ice in Antarctica during the summer there BECAUSE of global warming.
The IRONY is that these idiots are trapped in the ice in the SUMMER in Antarctica-not the winter. The irony is that they want us to BELIEVE that it’s getting warm enough to melt the fast ice/ice shelves while at the same time being COLD ENOUGH to then refreeze the water it JUST MELTED around their ship!
Please.
Hi Glenn
why are the kids there ?
Dirk, thanks for the link to the Polarstern, a proper polar research vessel which is also an icebreaker.
As Pierre Gosselin points out in his latest at No Tricks, this mission was woefully underprepared and seemingly done on the cheap.
Glenn says: January 1, 2014 at 11:50 am
In conclusion, this episode is not some scientific “fiasco”. They went into a situation they knew was risky, and got stuck. If they truly were expecting there to be no sea ice, and this happened, you’d have a point. Of course their own words point out that they were more than well aware of the fact, THEY WERE THERE TO STUDY IT
Glenn, you’ve just about convinced me to take back every disparaging word I’ve said about CAGW–just about! If, as you say, “They were there to study it (i.e., sea ice),” then their skill at arriving at the right place is beyond question unequaled. Everywhere they look but up, they have sea ice to study. Skill at such a high level has been absent from mankind’s endeavors since Einstein.
@negrum
First off, I have now had several people in this thread accuse me of simply showing up to do PR for this group (which does nothing to advance a healthy discussion). For the record this blog (and the actual story in discussion here ) was brought to my attention by a regular reader and fan of this site. I’m not here to vouch for this research group and their competence. I simply pointed out some flaws in Mr. Watts arguments. In fact there has been very little substance to the criticism I have read from Watts and other readers of this site.
As far as Arctic Sea Ice, tell me why this is confusing. In the winter, sea ice in the Arctic Ocean (note we are talking north polar region here, not south polar where this research group currently is) increases and in the summer a bunch of it melts. The recent trend over the last few decades is that there has been less and less sea ice in the arctic ocean during the summer months. This is well established fact, and has lead to renewed significance of the region for Russia, the US and others (The Arctic Ocean would become a significant global shipping lane, and there is also a ton of oil and other resources that may be uncovered). However, in the months of September through December, the melting stops and there is a temporary increase in ice again for obvious reasons. This is like taking an ice cube tray out of a freezer for two hours, then placing it back in the freezer for an hour before taking it back out again for another two hours. Obviously in that one hour you place it back in the freezer, you would expect the amount of ice to increase over that time period, while the overall trend over that 5 hour period will be for a decrease in ice. Follow?
@EternalOptimist
By kids, are you referring to the research students? Or were people bringing actual children on board?
this is as good a summation of the Clitanic debacle (and the whole warmist scam) as I’ve seen.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/in-the-icy-grip-of-fear-that-global-warming-is-claptrap/story-fni0cwl5-1226793282194
To those who have responded to my initial post and whom I have not replied to yet, I will try to get back to each of you tonight. I’m off to make the kids dinner
Here is a wonderful example of how global warming alarmism and grand standing has been married to stupidity. The predicted demise of the polar icecaps has been greatly exagerated by ALGOREIANISM!
Yes Zeke, Interesting prose.
Hemispheres v realms are important. Which light bulb works well, which carries no warning lable for Hg disposal and costs only a dollar?
We could always discuss differences between the Parthenon and Pantheon. I’ve drawn them since childhood.
Cat still named Zeke.
@Glenn, It depends upon your definition of “actual children.”
May I quote you? Please?
I betcha Glenn’s day job is promoting Obamacare.
According to nav. positioning, the Xue Long is making for the A.S., albeit very slowly, as one would expect. Can’t tell about the Aurora Australis- info unavailable now.
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:144.4372/centery:-66.68253/zoom:8/mmsi:412863000
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 1:50 pm
…….”The recent trend over the last few decades is that there has been less and less sea ice in the arctic ocean during the summer months.”……
NASA states clearly that the most recent summer sea ice minimum was the sixth
lowest – hardly consistent with “less and less sea ice”. – http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/arctic-sea-ice-minimum-in-2013-is-sixth-lowest-on-record/#.UsSPjNJdUVU
Glenn.
OK. One by one then. I thought you were just joining in the fun but if you were serious…
1 Nope, the fact that they are aware that the total polar ice is increasing and that the ice is increasing in Antarctica is not an excuse for blundering into it. That is still funny. And it is ironic because they didn’t publicise that the polar ice is not declining.
Yes. I agree. They did know that the ice was there but in trying to deceive, with their press releases, they were hoist by their own petard. And I note you didn’t answer my question “How many journalists did you take on your science research trip?” Because (unless you also are a deceiver, which I doubt) I guess you took none.
2 But you say that non-scientists are not there to influence the presentation of the “science”. They are just tourists or something else? Alas, you are wrong. The press were there to report on the science – with the help of the scientists who did press interviews beforehand. The “scientists” were not there to find out new things, analyse, discuss and report. It was Real-Time Science. Like Reality TV, e.g. fake.
3 True. The captain is the scapegoat for getting stuck. And the interviewers are not asking his opinion so he has no defence (except on Russian TV where he has said the “scientists” were slow in coming back when he called them). But the risks that are taken to save the fools is not just his responsibility. It is also the responsibility of the fools who went there.
4 Point 4 is irrelevant. This boat is in the ANTarctic not the Arctic (caps lock mine).
5 The implication that “no real science is being done” is covered by point 2. But also by the fact that the penguins under investigation live on land, not sea-ice, and so they won’t find anything of value unless they go back 100years to when the sea-ice wasn’t there.
6 Your last point is outrageous. I hope it was made in ignorance. The mission was in honour of Mawson. That man suffered for science (GOOGLE, caps lock mine). He didn’t have a party, get drunk and call on others to risk their lives to bail him out. Do some research and stop dishonouring heroes of science by tarring them with the same brush as a load of tourists and publicity seekers.
And, please do me the respect of an answer, How many journalists did you take to Greenland when you did research?
The Australian is reporting a rescue may happen soon.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/antarctic-ship-rescue-of-passengers-on-akademik-shokalskiy-set-to-begin/story-e6frg6so-1226793515910
Seems hopeful given the wind speed forecast.
http://www.yr.no/place/Antarctica/Other/Commonwealth_Bay/
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 1:57 pm
To those who have responded to my initial post and whom I have not replied to yet, I will try to get back to each of you tonight. I’m off to make the kids dinner
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
??? Are you on the ship too?????
From the Australian article.
”
Attempts to hold an airborne rescue were called off yesterday because of adverse weather conditions.
But in a message posted early today on its official Twitter account, the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) said a rescue effort could soon get under way.
“Akademik Shokalskiy has advised RCC (Rescue Coordination Centre) Australia that weather conditions have improved and rescue operations are likely to commence shortly,” AMSA said, adding that further information would be issued “throughout the morning”.
The announcement will be a source of much needed cheer for the mixed group of scientists, journalists and tourists on board the stranded vessel.”
Green Party Senator Janet Rice’s video blog aboard the A.S. said:
“100% certain there’s going to be a helicopter rescue… in the meantime having fun…”
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 1:50 pm
“This is like taking an ice cube tray out of a freezer for two hours, then placing it back in the freezer for an hour before taking it back out again for another two hours. ”
Thanks for the explanation of how it works. That means the ice gets less every year amirite?
Did you know that WUWT actually has a sea ice resource page?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
We use it to see whether the warmists are right when they claim things like you just did. You can also reach it via the head menu.
Glenn, your lack of basic research is there for all to see. Professor Turkey has his wife and children (I forget their ages, but they are well under 18) on board.
OLD DATA says:
January 1, 2014 at 1:59 pm “Which light bulb works well, which carries no warning lable for Hg disposal and costs only a dollar?”
It is a fine, inexpensive bulb of most common and harmless materials, which has the added advantage that it has a cheery light, and shines in the IR portion of the spectrum, like sunlight and candle light. It is not like its government mandated replacements, which are dreary, cold, contain Hg, and are known to leak or spontaneously combust.
But what about these mortals who protest the light and warmth afforded by incandescent bulbs and fossil fuels, who are now trapped in the ice?
ref: Steve Goddard @SteveSGoddard 10h
Fossil fuels keeping tens of millions of Canadians from freezing to death. http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather_maps/temperature_canada.html … pic.twitter.com/50tj4RkHGO
ref: http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/energy-ban-government-rights/2013/12/31/id/544637?ns_mail_uid=5249321&ns_mail_job=1551685_01012014&promo_code=16174-1
PS, cheers to your cat Zeke. I had one named Zeke also, who was older and used to trick the younger, burlier Toms into a tree if they came into his yard. I never saw how he did it, but there they would be, stuck on a limb while he sat nonchalantly down below.
Glenn, everyone is entitled to ther opinion and this is one place where you will be able to express your opinion. An opinion of a Real Climate Scientists in Casey in Antarctica expressed the following opinion about this debacle.
—
Greetings from Casey Station on the East Antarctic coast. I’ve just returned from the deep field site at Aurora Basin where the Australians are drilling a new 400-meter ice core which we will analyze in my lab in Reno.
I’m writing with regards to the rescue effort for that tourist ship stuck in the ice near Commonwealth Bay and the enormous impact of the rescue effort on Antarctic science programs. The Australian ice breaker Aurora Australis was here at Casey in the process of unloading the coming year’s supplies for the station, as well as a number of researchers and their science gear for this summer’s activities, when the emergency response request was issued. The Australians shut down the unloading very quickly and left within a few hours after the request arrived but only about a third of the resupply was completed and a lot of that science gear was still on board. Before they left they at least were able to get the passengers including six Aurora Basin researchers off the ship. Otherwise I’d still be at Aurora Basin and would have had to stay to the end of January since my field replacement was in that group.
The short- and long-term impacts on the Australian science program are pronounced as you can imagine and I understand it is the same for both the Chinese and French programs since their icebreakers were diverted, too. I’ll be sitting down to New Year’s Eve dinner in a few minutes with a number of Australian researchers including the director of the Australian Antarctic Division Tony Fleming – many of these guys can’t complete the research they’ve been planning for years because some or all of their science gear still is on the Aurora.
——-
Source: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/31/rescue-effort-for-trapped-antarctic-voyage-disrupts-serious-science/?smid=tw-share&_r=1
So, real Antarctic Scientists do not consider this as serious research and he is entitled to have this opinion as real research is suffering those fools.
Glenn, like you, I’m a salty sea dog and I’ve been on lots of marine science trips too (more than 20) – in Antarctica and I can assure you that this *is* a fiasco.
By the way, very large icebergs fall of the shelf every year. This is a completely natural process and has nothing to do with “climate change”. This can and does cause disruption to local coastline features and invariably impacts on long established penguin colonies.
http://www.nsf.gov/od/lpa/news/02/pr0291.htm
Chris B says: January 1, 2014 at 10:26 am
The Guardian has interesting beginnings. From Wiki:
Did Wiki tell you that it makes a huge loss and is kept alive by state advertising and the sale of ‘Autotrader’ (the clue is in the name) via an elaborate offshore tax reduction strategy. Irony anyone?
Glenn says: January 1, 2014 at 1:50 pm
The recent trend over the last few decades is that there has been less and less sea ice in the arctic ocean during the summer months. This is well established fact
No, the “recent trend” is that
The point that Anthony is making is that Arctic Sea Ice Extent is currently within two standard deviations of the 1981 – 2010 average;
National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="640"]
whereas Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is currently above two standard deviations of the 1981 – 2010 average:
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="640"]
Looking at this another way, Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area is currently .497 Million Sq Km below the 1979 – 2008 average;
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="640"]
whereas Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area is currently 1.529 Million Sq Km above the 1979 – 2008 average;
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="622"]
thus Global Sea Ice Area is currently over 1 Million Sq Km above the 1979 – 2008 average:
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]
The reason for this is not because of seasonal variation, and it is not because “sea ice was getting trapped in this particular area, and the possible effects the presence of one of the world’s largest icebergs was having”, but rather it is because Earth has not warmed in the last 17 years:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/04/rss-reaches-santers-17-years/
Are you familiar with “The Pause”? i.e.:
“Over the past 15 years air temperatures at the Earth’s surface have been flat while greenhouse-gas emissions have continued to soar.” The Economist “Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it.” Daily Mail “Twenty-year hiatus in rising temperatures has climate scientists puzzled.” The Australian “Has the rise in temperatures ‘paused’?” Guardian “On Tuesday, news finally broke of a revised Met Office ‘decadal forecast’, which not only acknowledges the pause, but predicts it will continue at least until 2017.” Daily Mail “RSS global satellite temperatures confirm hiatus of global warming, while the general public and mainstream press are now recognizing the AWOL truth that skeptics long ago identified…global temperatures are trending towards cooling, not accelerating higher” C3 Headlines
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 1:50 pm
As far as Arctic Sea Ice, tell me why this is confusing. In the winter, sea ice in the Arctic Ocean (note we are talking north polar region here, not south polar where this research group currently is) increases and in the summer a bunch of it melts. The recent trend over the last few decades is that there has been less and less sea ice in the arctic ocean during the summer months. This is well established fact, and has lead to renewed significance of the region for Russia, the US and others (The Arctic Ocean would become a significant global shipping lane, and there is also a ton of oil and other resources that may be uncovered). However, in the months of September through December, the melting stops and there is a temporary increase in ice again for obvious reasons. This is like taking an ice cube tray out of a freezer for two hours, then placing it back in the freezer for an hour before taking it back out again for another two hours. Obviously in that one hour you place it back in the freezer, you would expect the amount of ice to increase over that time period, while the overall trend over that 5 hour period will be for a decrease in ice. Follow?
———————————————————————
In case you do not recall, it was predicted that the arctic would be ice free by 2013. What happened instead is that there was more ice in 2013 than in 2012. It remains to be seen what will happen in 2014, but I would bet on another increase in ice cover at this point.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Among other things, “The Spirit of Mawson” Expedition declared:
We are going south to:
“gain new insights into the circulation of the Southern Ocean and its impact on the global carbon cycle”
“explore changes in ocean circulation caused by the growth of extensive fast ice and its impact on life in Commonwealth Bay”
“determine the extent to which human activity and pollution has directly impacted on this remote region of Antarctica”
Werner Heisenberg is laughing.
Zeke, please enjoy your ski trip.
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 1:50 pm
—-
Glad to see you have taken some of my advice. You might be taken more seriously now. Try not to relapse and you will encounter a minimum of negative reception on your style. Your approach gave the impression of trolling or PR and the more charitable assumption of PR seems to have been made by most readers. I am content to consider you merely mistaken in your beliefs 🙂
I am very much interested in your claims of flaws in the arguments of the host of this blog, since I have not yet found these purported flaws myself. I am not so interested in the rest of your points, which seem to be subjective opinion rather than fact and can be debated forever. For clarification on your point #4, could you cite the link of the post that you are referring to? This will help me to ensure we are talking about the same thing.
Please pardon my lack of comprehension on matters you consider crystal clear, but I work rather slowly. I will do my best to understand your explanation of the faults in the argument once I have examined the actual post.
Whilst I don’t wish these Christmas Antarctic turkeys any harm, i cannot but hope they endure some degree of hardship so as to perhaps bring about some understanding of the expense, inconvenience and danger that they have have exposed their rescuers to.
I hope that when they return to dry land that the authorities examine whether they pursued their expeditions goals in a manner of reckless negligence.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some of their $8k passengers sue for refunds and damages. I wonder how ice proof the contracts are they would have signed.
I don’t know if anyone else has already covered but this expedition has already been done for the same reasons and they also could not reach Mawson’s site
“An important theme of the expedition was climate change and its effect on the ice mass of Antarctica. vW Maps sourced free satellite imagery acquired only months earlier, helping to keep the pubilsher’s costs down, while providing an incomparable and beautiful base for the map of Mawson’s ill-fated trip across two dangerous glaciers.
One limitation of the journey’s recreation was the inaccessibility of Mawson’s landing site, which meant that Jarvis and his team had to recreate the original expedition in a different part of Antarctica. vW Maps, using incomplete GPS tracks, visualized data in a way that made it clear that the new expedition covered the same distance to the pole as the Mawson’s group”.
http://www.vwmaps.com/2010/09/23/mawson/
So what just was the real reason for this trip?
Do they have timber or steel so they can brace inside of hull? helicopters may not be able to fly but is it possible to parachute in supplies? If hull collapses, personnel may have to live on ice.
How will the MSM decide to report this story? Who calls the shots?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIevazPIPzU
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 11:50 am
Mr. Watts, as someone who has actually been on a research expedition (to Greenland) I find your ignorance on these matters quite surprising for someone who holds themselves up as a strong critic of climate science.
*****************************************************************************************************************
This is the new tactic of these trolls – to claim that they have done something which we are ridiculing. I don’t think “Glenn” has ever been near Greenland.
Climateace “claimed” he was an ex farmer and recently on the thread about the young scientist at NCAR a well know troll “claimed” he once worked at NCAR. Just be aware of this new tactic guys.
The most important angle of the story for the average viewer and voter – there could well be some climate change in next fall’s elections –
The most important angle is the subliminal one.
White.
Lots and lots of white.
That’s for both this rescue story and for Jeanne Moos’s superb Greenpeace Santa story.
http://tinyurl.com/k5yrrdn
It didn’t melt. In spite of all those years of apocalyptic
“climate scientists tell us that…”.
There’s an endless expanse of ice in the background.
It looks like the Polar Star may be diverting south.
http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/7367471/vessel:POLAR_STAR
By the way of the ship’s name, the Russian academician (akademik), professor Shokalskiy did research on the big Arctic meltdown in the 1920’s to 1940’s, which climatologists now try to hide.
http://mclean.ch/climate/Arctic_1920_40.htm
http://judithcurry.com/2013/04/10/historic-variations-in-arctic-sea-ice-part-ii-1920-1950/
The media angle belongs to no one. The embedded reporters were meant to provide live 24/7 coverage of the climate change discovered (= melting + penguin carcasses due to melting), but were now silenced to the occasional milk shake report. They will likely not be able to write books on what really happened either.
As far as media goes, it’s all about passengers of a Russian ship trying to be rescued by a Chinese icebreaker.
Which is why the story is filed under “Asia.”
See, it’s all about some Asians helping some Euroasians. End of the story. Move along.
Who? Me? Climate change? What?
J. Herbst said on January 1, 2014 at 1:10 am:
Thank you for the correction J. Herbst. I withdraw my comment about dendrologists going to Antarctica. However, I would like to highlight the following from the blog entry by Umberto Binetti dated December 4, 2013, as it is not in keeping with the general theme of unprecedented warming:
Treelines are aggregators of climatic conditions. They represent the integral of climate over a given period. The fact that treelines are found in many places in the world either farther north or at higher elevations than current vegetation would seem to indicate that we are not presently in a period of “unprecedented warmth.”
hi Glenn
yes. I am referring to actual children. (Robbie and Cara ??)
children of the expedition leader, Chris Turney
My apologies if someone above has mentioned this. It’s getting to be a chore to scroll through all the activity here! (grins)
From Janet Rice-http://www.janetrice.com.au/?e=98
(After 1 am on December 24)
“The ship is making very slow progress through pack ice. There is a narrow channel that we are inching our way along – it of course is pretty frozen in itself. There are icebergs on either side of us, some kilometres away – hard to tell exactly how far. We oscillate between hardly moving to suddenly being jolted sideways with a crunch as the ship bashes and barges its way through.”
***
“We were out in similar conditions this afternoon. Somewhat brighter – in fact there was blue sky and sunshine for some periods. The weather has been better than the forecast blizzard, so that was good.”
***
“The third drama of the day is the one which is still unfolding. Because of the Argo mishap we got off late, and had one less vehicle to ferry people to and fro. I’m told the Captain was becoming rather definite late in the afternoon that we needed to get everyone back on board ASAP because of the coming weather and the ice closing in. As I write we are continuing to make extremely slow progress through what looks like a winter alpine snow field – it’s yet another surreal part of this journey that we are in a ship trying to barge our way through here! I’m sure the Captain would have been much happier if we had got away a few hours earlier. Maybe we would have made it through the worst before it consolidated as much as it has with the very cold south- easterly winds blowing the ice away from the coast, around and behind us as well as ahead.
We’ll see where we are in the morning – it may be a very white Christmas Eve!
PS. 9.30am 24/12. We have moved less than a kilometre over night, and are now stationary in a sea of ice. The word is that we are not stuck, merely waiting for a weather change. It seems to me that we are having the quintessential Antarctic experience.J Stay tuned.”
*******************************************************
THE CAPTAIN and PASSENGERS knew that bad weather and ice were coming on Dec 23-that a “blizzard had been forecast”. The Captain made it clear to them more than once, because he “became rather definite” later that they needed to get OUT of that area ASAP.
As of 1 am on December 24th, they were already progressing through “ice pack” that caused the ship to “bash and barge” it’s way through the ice! Need more evidence of how stupid these people are?
On the 21st, Turney blogged about their trip to the Mawson camp on the 19/20th. Trying to find the LEAST hazardous way to access the Commonwealth Bay area, they decided to move the ship up the coast-farther away, but with access to better ice to drive across. He says this-
“A timely reminder was during the evening we relocated. The Shokalskiy suddenly found it was in a mass breakout of ice. In just half an hour, an extensive area of ice (some of which we had been using for the Hangout on Air earlier that day) had broken up and was moving away from Commonwealth Bay with haste. Large pieces of ice, in the shape of shattered glass fragments – albeit large pieces – surrounded our vessel. There was no danger to the ship but it was a timely reminder how quickly things can change in this environment. You can never take anything for granted in the Antarctic!”
After experiencing the ship being surrounded by breakout ice on the 18th or 18th of December in just HALF AN HOUR, they stayed in that area, moved slightly up the coast and with an incoming blizzard and MORE ice on the way, they went onshore and forced the boat to wait for their return. THEN they got stuck.
For Chris Turney to then go on TELEVISION and act shocked that all this ice just mysteriously appeared and hemmed them in without any warning, is stunning. If the Captain gets sued for damages, I hope he takes every penny Chris Turney and the University of New South Wales will ever have in the future.
_Jim says: @ December 31, 2013 at 8:35 pm
I am now wondering what part alcohol and an open bar might have played all around in the bad decision made to ‘challenge the ice’; probably none. Still, the thought persists …
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Good observation.
The problem of drunk driving is so bad in Russia, that on board videos are routinely used to prove innocence. A lot of the accidents are posted on the net according to my husband.
I wonder if there was anyone sober on board?
Oh, and MIKE…I love the poem!
Aphan says:
January 1, 2014 at 5:13 pm
_______________________
That’s really quite an indictment, but it won’t matter much to the man on the street, who will never get wind of the truth, at least not from the MSM.
Rest assured that there is already a small army of lawyers and PR types working together around the world, formulating a strategy going beyond damage control. They’re in this war to win it and they will try to make philosophical profit from this incident, expanding on the whole climate change meme.This incident is far more important to the warmunists than the event itself, as it continues to unfold.
Dave R.-
Can I get a link to where Turney changed the description of the trip? (If it’s true, what a weasel because as the “organizer” he and his university are probably liable) I’d just like proof.
Glenn-
You ARE the “Mr. Glenn” who posted on the Newsbusters site regarding this same ship aren’t you? Because that “Mr. Glenn” had the exact same attitude and said something almost exactly like: “One ship stuck in the ice does not negate global warming”. You know, kind of like a pre-conceived notion /strawman argument designed to make people who are questioning the intelligence of the people who organized this little voyage look like idiots rather than having a legitimate point about the situation these people are in.
I mean what are the odds that TWO men with the name “Glenn” would show up in two different sites talking about this incident and say almost the exact same thing? If it IS you, then YOU personally dropped into two forums that are very well known for questioning everything related to climate science-not because they deny warming or cooling or human influence at all-but because there is so much evidence now of science fraud and lies, that anyone with even half a brain SHOULD question everything that gets published and put out there. It’s called COMMON SENSE.
So did you just stumble innocently into two forums in which your accusations were greeted with hostility (can’t imagine why anyone would react with coldness to insinuations about their intelligence or credibility) or did you come post on both with a chip on your shoulder looking for a fight?
This forum is filled with HIGHLY intelligent, well educated, and well respected scientists and others who have taken their climate hobbies to heights some professors could only hope to attain. These people do their homework. They read everything published (not just the abstracts) and they don’t rely on anyone else’s evaluations of those papers. They form their own. They listen. They research. They DIG. They actually want to know the truth, WHATEVER it ends up being, because the TRUTH about this planet and how it works really IS their goal.
So maybe hang out. Read. Watch. And give this forum another chance. Because I assure you that the impression you seem to have gotten before your first post, is not an accurate one. And I’m sure they”ll give you another shot. But be warned, they don’t suffer fools lightly. 🙂
Wow lots to get to, so I’ll do my best and stick to the more serious posters.
I’ll just start by using this post to clarify that I did not intend to be a bomb thrower, so on second look I would tone down my original post a bit. I appreciate any genuine discussion. If you think I am being a dick, call me out on it. I am not advocating for any particular climate policy (despite what one poster seemed to think earlier). My position is more that I think too many people assume the field of Climate Science itself is tied completely to “man-made” climate change, and many of the critics of the science are simply ignorant of the field and the underlying math and science itself. That charge isn’t directed at everybody here of course. I just reacted negatively to the idea that appeared to be pushed on this site that one ship stuck in the ice in Antarctica supposedly discredits the entire field of climate science.
So on to some of your posts….
Now we know where the so called “green” jobs are coming from. Rescuing scientists er tourists from Antarcta
If their spirits are so high and all is well, then they won’t mind hiking out to the waiting rescue ships 20 km out instead of using jet fuel in helicopters for the ride. They are creating a larger carbon footprint with all of this fun and high spirits. Al Gore would have just flown over and called it done.
I want them all to be safely rescued, by Fulton lift.
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 6:07 pm
” I just reacted negatively to the idea that appeared to be pushed on this site that one ship stuck in the ice in Antarctica supposedly discredits the entire field of climate science.”
“If you think I am being a dick, call me out on it. ”
______________________________
You still are pointing fingers at us. Do you make similar accusations against those climate scientists who claim that each and every weather event constitutes proof of their warmunist agenda?
Philip Tomas (@BadScience) says:
January 1, 2014 at 6:20 pm
I want them all to be safely rescued, by Fulton lift.
—————————————————-
But it’s only used on dummies, or in real emergencies………………Oh……….I get it.
Aphan-
You said “Um…first of all, THESE scientists are stuck in Antarctica, NOT the Arctic. And you seem to not know that a “plot with a timescale from September-December of this year” would NOT be heading into winter in Antarctica, it would be heading OUT OF winter and into Spring/Summer there.”
I was referring to this post under the Update 2 section: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/29/saving-the-antarctic-scientists-er-media-er-activists-er-tourists-trapped-by-sea-ice/ In which we get both plots of Arctic sea Ice and Antarctic sea ice. I was referring to the Arctic plot. Arctic sea ice has been on the decline. This past year being a blip. If you don’t believe me, check with the US Navy, Russia, China, European Union, etc. who are all scrambling to adapt to the changes in the Arctic Ocean and what that may lead to.
You also said: “The irony is that they want us to BELIEVE that it’s getting warm enough to melt the fast ice/ice shelves while at the same time being COLD ENOUGH to then refreeze the water it JUST MELTED around their ship! ”
It’s a bit more complex than that. I don’t know if they are right or wrong, but to refute this you have to factor in Southern Ocean currents which circle the continent. It is conceivable that melt coming in from different points along the Antarctic coast is getting carried around and freezing only in certain localized areas where the conditions are ideal, and not freezing elsewhere. I don’t know if this is happening but it is not as ridiculous a hypothesis as you are assuming.
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 6:37 pm
“It is conceivable that melt coming in from different points along the Antarctic coast is getting carried around and freezing only in certain localized areas where the conditions are ideal, and not freezing elsewhere. I don’t know if this is happening but it is not as ridiculous a hypothesis as you are assuming.”
——————–
LOL It’s January 1st, not April 1st. Thanks for having us on. We needed a little humor to relive the stress of the rescue effort.
OLD DATA –
You guessed it, there were 0 media members on the research vessel when I was in Greenland. However, one of the professors and one of his post docs had been on separate expeditions where a media group had paid to have someone tag along to work on a story, and the circumstances differed. The media people were not there to influence the actual data collection mission. I have also heard of other cases where regular “civilians” for the lack of a better term, paid to tag along or spend a few days transiting with a ship and then getting off and flying home.
” I just reacted negatively to the idea that appeared to be pushed on this site that one ship stuck in the ice in Antarctica supposedly discredits the entire field of climate science.”
No one ship is just the tip of the ice berg, so to speak.
” I just reacted negatively to the idea that appeared to be pushed on this site that one ship stuck in the ice in Antarctica supposedly discredits the entire field of climate science.”
Of course it doesn’t. The climate models finished that job a long time ago.
Glenn says: January 1, 2014 at 6:37 pm
National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
It’s a bit more complex than that. I don’t know if they are right or wrong, but to refute this you have to factor in Southern Ocean currents which circle the continent. It is conceivable that melt coming in from different points along the Antarctic coast is getting carried around and freezing only in certain localized areas where the conditions are ideal, and not freezing elsewhere. I don’t know if this is happening but it is not as ridiculous a hypothesis as you are assuming.
You seem to be grasping at straws there, Antarctic Sea Ice is above average along almost all “points along the Antarctic coast”:
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="480"]
Perhaps a more plausible explanation is that Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area reached it’s second highest recorded anomaly on December 23rd, 2013?:
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="622"]
Man Bearpig
You wrote: “So, real Antarctic Scientists do not consider this as serious research and he is entitled to have this opinion as real research is suffering those fools.”
I would defer to any serious scientists in Antarctica as far as any critiques they have of this group. My initial post was a response to the narrative that this incident somehow was egg on the face of the entire “climate change community” or climate scientists in general. (i.e. an anecdotal story about a boat getting caught in the ice in Antarctica is really not much of a serious data point about whether the climate is changing). The opinion of other climate scientists was missing previously from the discussion.
Alan Robertson:
You asked: ” Do you make similar accusations against those climate scientists who claim that each and every weather event constitutes proof of their warmunist agenda?”
Yes. Joe or Sue Liberal who sit there and shout that every Tornado or Hurricane is evidence that we need to do “something” about global warming, and don’t have any scientific background on the subject, are just as useless to the discussion as those who say “well it sure was cold in Atlanta today, those climate change scientists are full of crap”.
Alan Robertson:
Forgot to add on my last post that as far as scientists who make such points, I think they are also getting carried away, but no serious scientist actually points to any individual weather event as proof. It is usually in the language of “we can expect more and more severe weather events like this”.
Hi Glenn
Any comment yet on your claim about children not being on the ship? Thanks – J
Chris B.
You wrote: “LOL It’s January 1st, not April 1st. Thanks for having us on. We needed a little humor to relive the stress of the rescue effort.”
Care to share with us your extensive knowledge of the Southern Ocean currents around Antarctica and what the localized weather patterns are? Do you know what the average summer temperatures are at those latitudes? Did you know there has been increased precipitation trend in that area over recent years? Care to weigh in on the causes of that? If you want to laugh, give me some science to back up your joke.
Latest news on the Rescue from the Australian ABC website/just in News
“The Australian Maritime Safety Authority now says current sea ice conditions mean a planned rescue will likely not go ahead today (2PM Jan 2, Aussie time).
AMSA says the Chinese ice breaker Xue Long’s helicopter is unable to land on the Aurora Australis due to load restrictions and it is not safe to land the helicopter next to the AMSA vessel.
AMSA says all passengers and crew are safe and well and that “alternative measures to complete the rescue are now being investigated”.”
Glenn says: January 1, 2014 at 7:08 pm
Forgot to add on my last post that as far as scientists who make such points, I think they are also getting carried away, but no serious scientist actually points to any individual weather event as proof. It is usually in the language of “we can expect more and more severe weather events like this”.
But this is conjecture as to date there has been no measurable increase in severe weather events, including Tropical Cyclones/Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Droughts, Floods, etc. To learn more about this please visit the WUWT “Extreme Weather” Reference Page;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/extreme-weather-page/
Tropical Cyclone Page;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/tropical-cyclone/
and Tornado Page:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/tornado/
Note that all graphs and graphics on the WUWT Reference Pages are linked directly to their sources so you can validate their veracity for yourself.
Link to the ABC news
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-01-02/passengers-on-stranded-antarctic-ship-prepare-for-rescue/5181828
Yes, news from The Australian, BBC and Guardian say no Chinese takeaway Thursday. 🙂
Johanna
Sorry I didn’t get back to that sooner as I have been trying to cover a lot of bases. First off, where did I claim there were no kids on board? I asked about their presence as it hadn’t been mentioned in the two blog entries by Anthony I had read, or the news reports I had read on the topic, but it didn’t shock me. (Anyone have their actual ages yet?) As far as “why are they there”, well I can only guess but if a professor has made multiple trips to Antarctica, and wants his children to have the experience of tagging along and seeing Antarctica, what does that really have to do with the scientific merit in of itself? Especially if the wife is also along riding on the boat and presumably would be the one primarily responsible for keeping tabs. I don’t know at what age I would be comfortable bringing my own children on such a voyage, but I don’t see what the angle is here? Whether the voyage had any scientific merit would not be determined by the presence of any children somewhere on the boat.
Just The Facts:
You wrote: “You seem to be grasping at straws there, Antarctic Sea Ice is above average along almost all “points along the Antarctic coast”: You also wrote: “there has been no measurable increase in severe weather events, including Tropical Cyclones/Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Droughts, Floods, etc.”
For both of these points, I was not speaking to my own personal views. In the first case (Sea Ice) I was pointing out to another poster that there are several possible explanations that go much further in depth than simply “why would ice be melting on land then refreezing in the water, that’s ridiculous”. I am well aware that this year has seen an increase in ice. I would also point out that in June of 2009 it was unseasonably cold where I live, and this summer it was unseasonably hot that same month. Those two data points by themselves as you know, don’t refute a “trend” either way when it comes to these sorts of things.
As far as the second case (severe weather), at this point I personally do not advocate pointing to storms as a sign of anything. I lean more towards looking for any shifts in overall regional weather patterns (i.e. severe drought in some areas while other areas start getting significantly more rain).
Dirk H,
You wrote: “Of course it doesn’t. The climate models finished that job a long time ago.”
I would encourage you to actually look up the definition of “The Scientific Method”. You might also want to consider the level and complexity of the math that actually goes into the field. Climate Science is not based on the idea that “humans cause global warming, lets prove it”, It is based on the idea of trying to find how different elements of the environment interact to influence the climate, and how changes in environment may change the climate. If it was decided tomorrow that humans are not having any significant impact on climate change, there would still be “Climate Science”, as there is much to explore and learn in the field, and much valuable information still needed. Only in America has this field really been politicized to such a significant extent.
Glenn,
Have a look at the bios of the “Scientists” on the Spirit of Mawson web site if you need proof that these folks are milking the cow under the guise of Climate Change. In fact, they brought a cadre of reporters (and intractable preconceived notions) to chronical the ecological sins of humankind. In short, it is these fools (and dozens of their international cronies) who have discredited Climate Science.
When thirty years of accurate polar data is offered as evidence of a warming planet…Climate Science is discredited.
When media outlets incessantly parrot Arctic sea ice extents, but ignore the growth in Antarctic extents…Climate Science is discredited.
When a handful of tree ring sample reconstruction samples are carefully selected to produce the desired result…Climate Science is discredited.
The climate has and will continue change. It’s high time Climate Science steps out of the cave; because it’s abundantly clear that Bacon’s idols have severely limited its ability to discern thuths.
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 6:07 pm
Wow lots to get to, so I’ll do my best and stick to the more serious posters.
I’ll just start by using this post to clarify that I did not intend to be a bomb thrower, so on second look I would tone down my original post a bit. I appreciate any genuine discussion. If you think I am being a dick, call me out on it.
*******************************************************************************************************************
[trimmed. Cut it out. Mod]
The Age/SMH reports (about an hour ago) that the Chinese ship is now stuck in ice and that the Aurora Australis is no longer attempting to get along side of her.
“It is unlikely the Aurora will attempt to reach the Xue Long, which is on the other side of a pack fault line and so drifting in another direction. The ship’s captain Murray Doyle and voyage leader Leanne Millhouse, from the Australian Antarctic Division, are now weighing up alternative rescue plans.”
http://www.theage.com.au/travel/travel-incidents/helicopter-rescue-delayed-as-second-ship-trapped-in-ice-20140102-306yj.html
I used to work on those airplanes and I really don’t think they would like that experience very much. It looked like a whiplash event to me.Though in an absolute do or die emergency, I’d try it, but only as an absolute last resort!
And Britain, and Australia, and New Zeeland, and Canada, and Germany and…and…and…and… The politicization of climate science is its main feature.
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:33 pm
Johanna
Sorry I didn’t get back to that sooner as I have been trying to cover a lot of bases.
———————————-
It’s tough being a 12-year old isn’t it ?
Apparently I need to read before posting…didn’t mean to offend any New Zealanders out there. I really do know how to spell your wonderful country’s name when I take my time.
Glenn says: January 1, 2014 at 7:47 pm
In the first case (Sea Ice) I was pointing out to another poster that there are several possible explanations that go much further in depth than simply “why would ice be melting on land then refreezing in the water, that’s ridiculous”. I am well aware that this year has seen an increase in ice.
Would you agree that the “increase in ice” is a more plausible explanation for the Akademik Shokalskiy’s predicament than “that melt coming in from different points along the Antarctic coast is getting carried around and freezing only in certain localized areas where the conditions are ideal, and not freezing elsewhere.”?
I would also point out that in June of 2009 it was unseasonably cold where I live, and this summer it was unseasonably hot that same month. Those two data points by themselves as you know, don’t refute a “trend” either way when it comes to these sorts of things.
There’s a big difference between the monthly weather around your house and Global Sea Ice Area. What “trend” are you refering to?
I lean more towards looking for any shifts in overall regional weather patterns (i.e. severe drought in some areas while other areas start getting significantly more rain).
Earth hasn’t warmed for 9 – 17 years depending on which data set you look at;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/15/a-big-picture-look-at-earths-temperature-santer-17-update/
why would you expect any “shifts in overall regional weather patterns”? Does CO2 have some magical regional weather pattern shifting capacity we have yet to be apprised of?…
negrum,
I think I still need to get back to your second post to me in which you asked: “For clarification on your point #4, could you cite the link of the post that you are referring to? This will help me to ensure we are talking about the same thing.”
I was referring to this post: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/29/saving-the-antarctic-scientists-er-media-er-activists-er-tourists-trapped-by-sea-ice/ and specifically the chart relating to Arctic ice cover from September to December. I took issue with the idea that an upward trend over the last few months refutes the idea that sea ice in the Arctic has been disappearing. The chart actually shows that the typical upward trend over the last few months is still on the low side of the typical average for this time of year. Others have since pointed to the fact that the Summer of 2013 saw an increase in Arctic Ocean sea ice from the previous summer, however this does not refute the fact that the long term trend has been alarming. There is a reason the Northwest passage is being viewed as potentially a summer shipping lane in the near future. Speak to the Inuit people of Greenland and you won’t find any telling you that things have stayed static up there.
@Glenn7:55
Try taking your own advice, then go read the CRU emails, on the WUWT reference page as Climate Gate.
Then the IPCC Fourth Assessment, the leaked 5th and then the sanitized official Fifth report.
You sound like a troll, but I am willing to give you the benefit of doubt.
Scientific method.. Excellent; please apply the method to the speculation that CO2 emissions by mankind,cause the planet to warm up(overwhelming all known natural systems) and that this imaginary warming will be detrimental to the planet and mankind.
State your theory, detail your empirical measurements, outline why you may be mistaken and propose measurement that might falsify this theory.
Most readers here have only been waiting 30 years for this to be done, so go for it, you can break the impasse of belief versus science.
Nobel prize and knighthood awaiting.
Philip Tomas (@BadScience) . Thanks for the fun video.
Oooohhhh .. looks rough coming off of water…imagine being ripped along some jagged ice floes. Ouch. Maybe more like instance death.
The last line (as others have already noted) about “only used with dummies” was too funny.
CAS
Glenn, just in case you are not a troll, my point was that you demanded proof that there were children on the ship before doing the most elementary research. It would have told you that the head of the expedition had his wife and kids on board.
You are either too lazy to be taken seriously, or a troll. Either way, see ya!
UPDATE.
News, national, Melbourne, Australia. TV 3 pm local EADST Thursday January 2nd.
Yet another rescue attempt has been called off. It seems that the helicopter cannot land safely at one or more of the several places needed to execute the full plan that ends finally at the Aurora Australis as per news of yesterday –
“The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) said the operation involving the airlifting of 52 passengers from the Akademik Shokalskiy, which had been set to involve a Chinese helicopter, no longer looked possible due to the adverse conditions.
The ice was preventing a smaller vessel from the Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis from reaching Chinese icebreaker the Xue Long, which is nearer to the stranded ship.
The plan was to fly passengers to the Chinese vessel before they were transferred to the Aurora Australis by boat.”
In my career of mineral exploration we were sometimes in very dangerous places.
If you ever get lost in dangerous locations – and you have the experience or sense to know a dangerous situation – you are sometimes overcome with panic and then you act irrationally.
Those who know about this plan with caution, never sending out single vehicles, having navigation and radio backups, having an experienced person on board at all times and so on.
Otherwise, lives are lost.
bones,
You said “In case you do not recall, it was predicted that the arctic would be ice free by 2013.”
When and by whom? I have seen others bring that up but that was not some widely accepted recent assertion that I recall. The trend again though has been less ice in the Arctic Ocean in general, obviously with some fluctuations from year to year. Greenland has seen significant glacial retreat at it’s largest glaciers, as well as more and more uncovered land in general. China has been angling to get in on potential precious metal mining opportunities in Greenland given the increase in exposed land. World powers are scrambling to establish more of a presence in the Arctic. More people are attempting the Northwest passage. Etc. etc.
Welcome aboard Robbie and Cara:
Glenn says: January 1, 2014 at 8:18 pm
“The chart actually shows that the typical upward trend over the last few months is still on the low side of the typical average for this time of year. ”
“…however this does not refute the fact that the long term trend has been alarming.”
———–
What is alarming, and why?
Some thousand years ago the Arctic Ocean may have been free of ice:
http://www.ngu.no/en-gb/Aktuelt/2008/Less-ice-in-the-Arctic-Ocean-6000-7000-years-ago/
And for sure, a few thousand years earlier there was an ice age. Normally climate change.
johanna,
I did not feel any of my post to you was hostile. Where did I earlier “demand proof”? What specific quote of mine are you referring to? I recall simply asking another poster to clarify the “children” he was referring to. I wasn’t denying their presence and “demanding” proof.
If you do not believe I am being sincere in my discussions with people here, or want to dismiss me so casually, that’s your call.
Glenn says: January 1, 2014 at 8:18 pm
Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
this does not refute the fact that the long term trend has been alarming.
Only alarmists are alarmed.
There is a reason the Northwest passage is being viewed as potentially a summer shipping lane in the near future.
Yes, because alarmists have fed the public false information. If you look at Canadian Archipelago Sea Ice Area;
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]
there is no indication that the Northwest passage will be “a summer shipping lane in the near future”. Furthermore,
Speak to the Inuit people of Greenland and you won’t find any telling you that things have stayed static up there.
I thought we just decided that anecdotes about the climate conditions around your house are irrelevant to discussions about global climate? Greenland represents less than .5% of Earth’s surface area, of what relevance are Inuit’s perspectives on this debate?
philincalifornia wrote: “It’s tough being a 12-year old isn’t it ?”
#1 What does that add?
#2 Care to switch roles and venture on your own into a hostile forum with no backup and try to have the courtesy to respond to dozens of posters at once?
There’s a wonderful video on YouTube about diving under Antarctic ice, with info about many things we’ve discussed. Not linked due to bandwidth issues for some users here, but the name is “Under the Antarctic Ice” and narrated by Hilary Swank. Topics include continental ice melt runoff into sea, brine tubes forming from melting ice expelling salt and many delightful things. Bring popcorn and forget sharing it with trolls.
Who said this:?
There is no evidence that the summer ice is in imminent danger of collapse.
Feedbacks in the climate system are only marginally positive.
Negative feedbacks are
1. A reduction of sea ice results in increased atmospheric water vapour
and hence more clouds. Cloud albedo is greater than sea ice albedo and
so net short wave forcing is reduced.
2. A reduction of sea ice results in increased evaporation. Evaporation
cools the surface but warms the atmosphere when it condenses. Increased
surface heating will increase the condensation height resulting in more
heat lost from the atmosphere to space. This is called the ‘lapse-rate
feedback’
3. A reduction in sea ice results in more short wave absorbed by the
open ocean. Increased short wave radiation and increased melt water
reduces the ocean mixed layer depth. A shallow mixed layer stratifies
the ocean such that the heating is not mixed to the deeper ocean. With
the heat confined in the surface layer it is lost to the atmosphere more
readily and very rapidly once autumn starts.
4. Thinner ice in summer means more heat loss from the ocean in winter,
resulting in stronger ice growth.
Positive feedbacks are the obvious
1. Reduced sea ice means more open water and lower albedo so more heat
up take and more ice melt.
Thus, a simple calculation including only the positive feedback will
produce an incorrect early loss of the summer ice.
All GCMs show that the inevitable loss of summer Arctic ice does not
influence the global climate system. Warming does not increase
significantly just because the cloud which replaces much of (but not
all) the ice is more reflective. The impact on the North Greenland ice
sheet will hasten the regional melt rate. However, it is evident that
the decline of the Greenland ice cap will take more than 1000 years.
The so called ‘speedup’ of draining glaciers has been shown to be a
transient feature as most of those ‘fast’ glaciers, diagnosed in 2003,
have now slowed to their original speeds. Even if tide-water glaciers
were all to speed up, they can only drain 10% of the ice sheet before
they become grounded above sea-level. There is ample evidence that non-
tidewater glaciers have not increased in speed.
Nature has a vicious sense of humour.
First the irony of climate change experts stuck in a summer ice pack.
Now the on again off again rescue , the weather will appear to calm down, the activists will be mobilized, the weather will rise up, the air lift will be cancelled, they wait,the cycle repeats.
Climate change..water wet, except when its solid.
@glenn 8:52,
Hostile forum?
I guess that clarifies your role.
Ice-sheet uncertainty, Bromwich, D.H. and Nicolas, J.P., Nature Geoscience 2010:
Yep, definitely a troll.
Prof Chris Turney and the Australian ABC now claim this is not a scientific expedition looking for evidence of climate change, but a tourist trip with 22 scientists aboard. This is directly contradictory to Prof Turney’s statements before departure, and during the early part of the voyage.
If this is true, all the tourists are fully liable for the cost of their trip, and their rescue.
Also, Prof Turney may have fraudulently misrepresented the nature of the trip to the (mainly) Australian funding bodies (most are Government departments) who were told it was a “scientific expedition to investigate the effects of climate change”.
All blame aside, the 74 people on board are now in a dangerous position, and it could get a lot worse.
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 8:52 pm
philincalifornia wrote: “It’s tough being a 12-year old isn’t it ?”
#1 What does that add?
#2 Care to switch roles and venture on your own into a hostile forum with no backup and try to have the courtesy to respond to dozens of posters at once?
Sorry Glen in nearly 7 years of following WUWT, I have yet to see any evidence of this being a “hostile blog”
I have however seen numerous “True Believers” come in here, quoting or declaring that the evidence for CAGW/CC/WW is overwhelming, but when asked to provide citations, links, all we see are the usual tired disclaimers or links to SkS or RC, neither of which have any concept of fair discussion.
That you have been able to keep posting, and in my opinion been treated a lot more civilly than any of us would be in SkS or RC, and I agree that you have been courteous in attempting to answer as many posts as possible, makes me wonder about your definition of a “hostile blog”
Please stay around, we need people to bounce our ideas off as well.
Take care
Here is a special quote:
“. . . the penguin presence surely suggests another scientific advance: penguins cannot laugh out loud, as much of the rest of the world is now doing.”
[Roger Franklin, The Daily Telegraph, 1/02/2014]
dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/in-the-icy-grip-of-fear-that-global-warming-is-claptrap/story-fni0cwl5-1226793282194
Just the facts wrote:
“I thought we just decided that anecdotes about the climate conditions around your house are irrelevant to discussions about global climate? Greenland represents less than .5% of Earth’s surface area, of what relevance are Inuit’s perspectives on this debate?”
If you are making the case about trends in Arctic Ice change, then the perspective of a people who not only live in the region, but are significantly dependent on the land for survival, is a valuable insight. If they are having to change hunting and fishing patterns significantly from the previous generation, there is something up. Spreading back out though to a more widespread scale, what is your general feeling as far as why glaciers have been retreating rapidly across the globe (Greenland, Patagonia, Kilamanjaro, Rainier, Glacier National Park, Iceland, etc. etc.) I ask this genuinely, not as some sort of gotcha question.
— “why would you expect any “shifts in overall regional weather patterns”? Does CO2 have some magical regional weather pattern shifting capacity we have yet to be apprised of?…”
I haven’t made any comments regarding CO2. Take AGW out of it for a second. I haven’t actually made any statements specifically referring to CO2 causing anything, in fact I should have made a disclaimer in earlier posts that my interests are not in pushing any particular reasons for changes in climate, more so an objection to the idea that there have not been interesting shifts. We know forces stronger than man can change the climate as well (including regional changes such as the Sahara alternating between lush jungle and arid desert over the millenia). As far as “regional pattern shifts”, I am referring to things like the increased precipitation trend as you approach the antarctic circle. Will Texas continue to see more long droughts, or did we just happen to hit a short isolated case there? etc. etc.
up-to-date from new zealand:
looks like helicopter evacuation has been ruled out indefinitely! plus what does “this time because of sea ice” mean? what was it the other times?
2 Jan: NZ City: Sea ice delays Antarctica rescue bid
The rescue of scientists and tourists who have spent 10 days stranded on a ship trapped by ice off Antarctica has again been delayed, this time because of sea ice…
It is unlikely the helicopter rescue of 52 passengers aboard the Akademik Shokalskiy will go ahead on Thursday and instead plans are being made for a safer transfer directly from ship to ship, Australian maritime officials say…
AMSA says the preferred option is to wait for conditions that will allow the rescue to be completed in a single operation, transferring the passengers directly to the Aurora Australis, to reduce unnecessary risk…
AMSA is also investigating alternative rescue ideas…
Six New Zealanders are aboard the ship…
http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=179754&fm=newsmain%2Cnrhl
Opening a hundred irrelevant rabbit holes in the hope that the topic will be lost.
Definitely a troll.
Warren in New Zealand,
You might be right in that I’m not sure hostile was the right word as far as literal definitions go. I was referring more to going up against an opposing crowd alone, not trying to label everyone individually as hostile.
Anyways, trying to address everyone at once is in hindsight not the way to do it. It prevents me from going into any kind of in-depth response to those posters who warrant it. For example, I could have spent these last few hours going into more substantive detail with say Just The Facts or another poster, instead of trying to give shorter responses to ten or twelve other people. I’ll revisit that strategy, but for now it’s long past my bedtime and I feel like I didn’t come close to addressing everything I needed to.
Best wishes to all, I’ll attempt to find some time tomorrow.
johanna says:
January 1, 2014 at 9:49 pm
Opening a hundred irrelevant rabbit holes in the hope that the topic will be lost.
Definitely a troll.
_______________________
Good job.
I’d be willing to help with a fund to send more supplies for the Russian crew if they’re stuck there till Yamal gets into it.
This now realy dangerous. As nature has taken over. Seafarers from three nations are now at risk. All should suspend the fllippancy and just hope and pray that eveyone gets out of fhis dangerous fiasco alive.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/travel/travel-incidents/helicopter-rescue-delayed-as-second-ship-trapped-in-ice-20140102-306yj.htmlhttp://www.canberratimes.com.au/travel/travel-incidents/helicopter-rescue-delayed-as-second-ship-trapped-in-ice-20140102-306yj.html
Johanna says
“Opening a hundred irrelevant rabbit holes in the hope that the topic will be lost.
Definitely a troll.”
Or it could be I was trying to be gracious enough to acknowledge those who responded or addressed a post to me (especially in your case since you asked several times for me to answer your question and seemed upset when I hadn’t gotten to you yet). Don’t worry, I see the mistake in that now. I gave you much more courtesy than you’ve returned, and in the process I wasted time I could have spent on more in-depth responses to more worthy posters like Just The Facts.
“Speak to the Inuit people of Greenland and you won’t find any telling you that things have stayed static up there.”
Won’t find any? None at all? Interesting.
By the way, what is the Inuit word for “static”? Does the Inuit word for static mean homeostasis?
I am glad to meet someone who has sat around chatting in fluent Inuitese -or whatever language they speak.
When you chat with the Inuits to glean their opinions and vast knowledge, what do they tell you about the times when the Scandinavians were putting colonies on Greenland, back before the hockey stick era>?
Or do you mostly chat with these imaginary Inuits about whether things are not static in the short run, as compared to the medium range back to the normal times when it was much warmer in Greenland.
John Bills says:
January 1, 2014 at 8:54 pm (replying to Glenn)
(Sea ice)
But you missed a few negative feedbacks there, and exaggerated the single positive feedback.
1. Radiation losses increase from open water.
Assume a DMI “typical” Arctic day at 80 north in mid-September: Average air temperature is about -15 C. Top of the sea ice with typical Arctic winds of 2-3 m/sec will also be at -10 C (263 K); and so the sea ice will try to radiate into space (or into clouds) at 263 ^4 power, right? But, if that sea ice is replaced by open ocean water under the same air temperature the top of sea surface will be – not -15 degrees! but rather 2-4 degrees C or 278 K. Emissivity of sea and ice are very close, both would radiate into identical conditions (either clear night sky or cloudy daytime skies), and so every sq meter of open ocean will radiate more energy to space by a proportion equal to (278^4)/(263^4) or 1.248 times that lost by ice-covered seas. 25% higher losses are substantial, true?
2. Evaporation losses are greater from open ocean, but are almost nothing under sea ice.
(Yes, the air may “warm” later when the vapor condenses, but where is it condensing? The open water is losing about 107 watts/m^2 that ice-covered seas retain.
3. Convection losses from air blowing over the open ocean remove heat from the water more rapidly than from the top of ice covering that water. Heat exchange right at the water-to-ice boundary are aided by the intimate contact between the two, but are slowed by the requirements of freezing ice to slowly “squeeze out” the salt from each gram of water before it can freeze up into the lattice of ice crystals. Look at the “clouds” forming above each polyna in the ice – as the open water loses heat immediately even in the most modest of breezes. .
Again, consider the top of ice at -10 degrees, almost the same as the air (with a little surface losses across the boundary layer) at all normal wind speeds. But, then that 1 -2 meters of ice then separates and insulates the 2-4 degree water under the ice from the -10 degree air above the ice, and so the net heat transfer from water to air is reduced by the “insulating” effect of the ice between the two. If “hotter” open water is present directly contacting the -15 degree air, the water is losing heat much faster each hour of the day the ice is missing.
Note that it doesn’t matter “why” the Arctic ice may be missing – winds, melting, ice breakers, or helicopter or Martians. If ANY ice is missing from Arctic water anytime between mid-August to mid-May under today’s conditions, the planet (the Arctic Ocean) cools even more.
You mentioned heat gain from sunlight: Classic CAGW Arctic amplification feedback holds that open water gains more energy than does ice-covered water, and so the open water heats up and melts more sea ice, thus increasing the amount of energy gained.
What constants do you (or Glenn, or any one else use to support this claim that open ocean gains more energy from the sun than does sea ice, and under what conditions and what time of year in the Arctic do you find that to be true? (Actually, that’s almost a trick question, because you will find the answer is much, much more subtle than the simplistic propaganda approved for release by the CAGW dogma.)
Glenn says: January 1, 2014 at 9:34 pm
Spreading back out though to a more widespread scale, what is your general feeling as far as why glaciers have been retreating rapidly across the globe (Greenland, Patagonia, Kilamanjaro, Rainier, Glacier National Park, Iceland, etc. etc.) I ask this genuinely, not as some sort of gotcha question.
I don’t really have a “general feeling” per se, but based on the evidence I’ve seen, it is likely associated with continued retreat of glaciers since the Little Ice Age ended in approximately 1850;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850
the warming that Earth experienced between 1975 and 1998;
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/global-land-ocean-mntp-anom/201101-201112.png
anthropogenic influences other than CO2, such as black carbon and deforestation, as well as natural variability.
I haven’t made any comments regarding CO2. Take AGW out of it for a second. I haven’t actually made any statements specifically referring to CO2 causing anything, in fact I should have made a disclaimer in earlier posts that my interests are not in pushing any particular reasons for changes in climate, more so an objection to the idea that there have not been interesting shifts. We know forces stronger than man can change the climate as well (including regional changes such as the Sahara alternating between lush jungle and arid desert over the millenia). As far as “regional pattern shifts”, I am referring to things like the increased precipitation trend as you approach the antarctic circle. Will Texas continue to see more long droughts, or did we just happen to hit a short isolated case there? etc. etc.
If we take CO2 out of the picture, then I think that everyone here agrees that Earth’s climate is changing, as it has for the last 4.5 billion years, that these changes are interesting, and that we should be aggressively studying these changes and their causes in order to better understand Earth’s climate system and how forthcoming changes may impact us. Furthermore, I think that most of us agree that humans are impacting Earth’s climate, through land use changes such as deforestation and the urban heat island effect, through pollution such as black carbon, through waste heat, runoff, damning waterways and array other methods. However, the reason why we find ourselves here tonight is that we collectively have wasted more than a trillion dollars trying to “prevent climate change” by trying to decrease the increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This is the result of the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Narrative, which is predicated on accelerating runaway alarming CO2 driven warming. If we could take CO2 and CAGW out of the picture, then I think we could all Kumbaya, take a sober look at the true challenges we and Earth face and work together to address them in a reasoned and methodical manner. Unfortunately, the likes of the IPCC, CRU, UEA, Al Gore and an array of others have put us in a position where we are all wasting each others time arguing about why some ship is trapped off the coast of Antarctica.
berniel comments after my NZ City piece about helicopter evacuation seemingly called off:
And Chris Turney tweets:
The Chinese helicopter has arrived @ the Shokalskiy. It’s 100% we’re off! A huge thanks to all. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_13rQBXKa0A …
but then:
Mario Lento commented:
“I don’t get it. The helicopter dropped off 6 people and left. I thought it was supposed to pick up 12 people?”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/01/amsa-helicopter-rescue-of-akademik-shokalskiy-likely-to-commence-shortly/#comment-1520988
RACookPE1978
maybe you could learn to read (understand)
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 9:34 pm
“If you are making the case about trends in Arctic Ice change, then the perspective of a people who not only live in the region, but are significantly dependent on the land for survival, is a valuable insight. If they are having to change hunting and fishing patterns significantly from the previous generation, there is something up”
————————————————————————–
I might point out that the people now living in the area are more dependent for survival on their local supermarkets than they are on hunting and fishing.
Similarly, their “previous generation” did their hunting and fishing while paddling sealskin kayaks and using hand propelled spears.
Now they hunt and fish from aluminum boats with outboard motors while equipped with high powered rifles and electronic fish finders.
So the perspective of the people living in the region does not really provide any kind of valuable perspective or insight.
Aphan,
No that is not me on the newsbusters site. Glenn isn’t that uncommon of a name you know 🙂
Just The Facts,
Apologies that your posts to me did not get the level of in-depth responses they deserved. I got myself buried trying to respond to everyone. I’ll try to get back to you tomorrow night.
Hmmmn. Ok. Let’s try it the hard way. Mid-September, at today’s minimum point of Arctic sea ice extents.
1. Under clear skies, at 7:00, 9:00, 11:00, 13:00, 15:00, and 17:00 hours, how much direct and diffuse solar energy is available, according to your constants and coefficients, to heat an Arctic surface right at the edge of the arctic sea ice? How much strikes a horizontal surface at the edge of the Antarctic sea ice at its maximum extents?
Under cloudy skies, how much diffuse energy is available to strike a horizontal surface at sea level at those same latitudes?
Under clear skies, at those same latitudes, if that much energy strikes a horizontal sq meter of average sea ice, how much energy is absorbed, and how much is reflected?
Under cloudy skies, at same those latitudes, how much energy is absorbed and how much is reflected from the same average sea ice?
If that much solar energy hits a horizontal sq meter of open ocean at 2-4 m/sec wind speed, how much is absorbed, and how much is reflected?
Glenn says: @ January 1, 2014 at 6:07 pm
…. My position is more that I think too many people assume the field of Climate Science itself is tied completely to “man-made” climate change, and many of the critics of the science are simply ignorant of the field and the underlying math and science itself. That charge isn’t directed at everybody here of course. I just reacted negatively to the idea that appeared to be pushed on this site that one ship stuck in the ice in Antarctica supposedly discredits the entire field of climate science.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You haven’t been on this site for long reading peer-reviewed paper after peer-reviewed paper that would get an F if submitted to a competent teacher. Many on this site ARE college professors or industrial engineers and scientists, some are statisticians. The disgust at the incompetence and out right lying get rather thick at times.
Another Conservation Success Story Hijacked by Climate Alarmists is an example of a peer-reviewed paper that twists the facts and is written solely to support CAGW. There are many many more.
As commenter Rud Istvan states in that thread:
johanna says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:10 pm
Hi Glenn
Any comment yet on your claim about children not being on the ship? Thanks – J
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Both of Turney’s kids are on board as well as his wife. They are there to provide propaganda for schools.
The Guardian has a clip of the helicopter landing, wheels sinking ito the ice, for about 20 seconds, long enough for ahalf dozen crew to jump out, and taking off again, with a voice over of Turney saying; “If all goes well we’ll be off in about an hour’s time”. (Nothing about women and children first).
Guardian has updated this piece, now saying:
2 Dec: Guardian: Bridie Jabour: Antarctic rescue under way as helicopter lands next to trapped ship
A helicopter sent from the Chinese icebreaker Xue Long landed next to the trapped Akademik Shokalskiy on Thursday afternoon and the first group of passengers was due to be evacuated shortly after 8pm local time (7am GMT). The passengers were due to be taken off in five groups, with two further flights to pick up their baggage.
In a change of plan, the passengers would be taken not the Xue Long, but to an ice floe near the icebreaker Aurora Australis, which tried but failed to break through to the trapped ship earlier this week…
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/02/antarctic-rescue-under-way-akademik
@ negrum says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:10 am
Sorry
——————–
Yes, you are sorry, but that’s not really the point…
Which “thinking” section of the CAGW ? The one that put us in this AGW debacle, or the one that is still [delusional and] presenting AGW as real ?
These battles are not won by letting the other side present falsehoods (“lie”) unchecked. Ask all those scientists and other professionals whose careers were derailed by speaking out about AGW if patience works for them ?
What about the policies and regulations build on this false theory that are negatively affecting millions of people and economies around the world ? Ask those who freeze to death (from policies resulting in higher energy cost) because of these misguided believers in the “consensus” to CHILL so you can be patient with your civil discourse.
I’m not sure who is more delusional, those global warming fanatics with their man-made Co2 centric theory or persons like you who think the AGW movement will lay their weapons down and go quietly because you tamed them with your logic and discourse…
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:55 pm
… I would encourage you to actually look up the definition of “The Scientific Method”.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The Climate Scientists on “The Team” tossed “The Scientific Method” out the window a long time ago. A critical part of science is replicate and validate, the reason so many papers eventually fail. (See paper Why Most Published Research Findings Are False )
Here is another example of ‘Hiding the Data” as Frank Lansner and Nicolai Skjoldby try to examine the BEST results. I don’t know how BEST did that… perhaps some urban Prag stations etc? For sure, yet again, the BEST project is not presenting reality
Phillips on the Aurora Australis:
2 Jan: SMH: Nicky Phillips: Antarctica rescue of passengers on Akademik Shokalskiy begins
The passengers will be evacuated from the ship by the Xue Long’s helicopter and taken to a thick ice floe next to Australian icebreaker the Aurora Australis.
At 4pm Sydney time, four Australian Antarctic Division staff were lowered to the ice in a small boat to prepare a helicopter landing area and a safe walking passage to the Aurora for the Shokalskiy passengers…
The Xue Long also sent a helicopter crew with engineers to test the landing area before it left to collect the Shokalskiy passengers, who are expected to arrive on the Aurora in the next few hours…
Deck areas on the Aurora have been closed as the operation begins.
Plans to rescue the Shokalskiy passengers changed this morning when it became apparent the Xue Long was itself unable to move out of the pack ice…
http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/antarctica-rescue-of-passengers-on-akademik-shokalskiy-begins-20140102-307mv.html
With apologies to Judy Garland, Prof Turney’s song:
I’m always chasing penguins
Watching icebergs drifting by
My schemes are just like all my dreams
Just pie in the sky
Some fellows look and find the sunshine
I always look and find the rain
Some fellows make a winning sometime
I never even make a gain, believe me
I’m always chasing penguins
Waiting to find some little chicks in vain
Six words changed from the original
Latest as of 10 minutes ago: :
AMSA has been advised that the first passengers have boarded the helicopter. 2/3
11:46 PM – 1 Jan 14
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:55 pm
….Climate Science is not based on the idea that “humans cause global warming, lets prove it”….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ROTFLMAO<
Glenn, old chap of COURSE it is, they even come right out and say so!
Two statements put what you said in a very clear light.
The banker’s stake in CAGW
This is a fraud that produces nothing but poverty. It does not produce a single penny of wealth and instead acts as a short circuit across the advancement and wealth of an entire civilization. Do not forget an employee of the World Bank, Robert Watson was the chair of the IPCC and the Danish Text Leak that killed off Copenhagen. From the Guardian: Developing countries react furiously to leaked draft agreement that … hands effective control of climate change finance to the World Bank;
The IPCC mandate states:
You can not separate politics and money from CAGW.
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. ~ H. L. Mencken
CAGW fits Mencken’s definition of practical politics like a glove.
“AMSA has received confirmation that the first transfer of 12 passengers to the Aurora Australis has been completed.”
12:01 AM – 2 Jan 14
This is the most dangerous part of the operation.
ABC Australia are now reporting this as a Russian Ice Breaker and they are totally not saying anything about climate change research.
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:55 pm
I don’t know if you are serious or a troll. The odds are about even the way I see it. You may be dead serious. I live in a college town where adult men and women roll their eyes and snort with derision—like high school girls—-when someone questions the “science” of anthropogenic global warming. When they get challenged they invoke authority and experts, claim it’s all obvious and settled science, call skeptics ignorant, drag in all kinds of unrelated stuff, and when they finally realize they cannot answer even the simplest questions they exit with more eye rolling and snorting.
Your condescending reply to Dirk concerning “The Scientific Method”, complexity, math, etc. sounds just like that. Since you brought it up, would you kindly reply to John Robertson at 8:20 and state your scientific theory the way you say it should be done? I am one of the many who’ve been waiting for a long time. Arm waving, snorting and eye-rolling doesn’t do it for me.
Huh? You seem to have no clue what is happening in countries like Germany and the UK, among many, otherwise you would have never made such a statement (again, assuming you are not a troll). But since you did, would you like to say who in your opinion politicized “Climate Science”?
How do they get away with calling it “a Russian Ice Breaker”??? It’s just an ice strengthened ship. If it was an ice breaker, presumably it wouldn’t have got stuck in the first place.
While the dolts party on, they spare no thoughts for the genuine scientists whose programs have been wrecked this summer by the diverting of the ice-breakers with their unloaded supplies.
Selfish is the word, along with bog-ignorance and underclass form.
Tourney need not return to Australia, and they probably don’t want him back in the UK, either.
He is a blot on Antarctic research.
Philip Tomas (@BadScience) says:
January 1, 2014 at 6:20 pm
I want them all to be safely rescued, by Fulton lift.
—–
It is perfect, “It is only used with dummies except in real emergencies”
jorgekafkazar says:
January 2, 2014 at 12:05 am
This is the most dangerous part of the operation.
Helicopter from ice to ice. I pray it goes well.
Glenn says at January 1, 2014 at 6:07 pm
Which, it seems, doesn’t include me; ah well.
Perhaps, I was too hostile when challenging him to distinguish between science and climatology as practiced by pre-arranged media demonstrations – such as the ship of fools?
The difference between Astrology and Astronomy is that the outcomes are agreed in advance for Astrology but Astronomy lets the evidence lead to hypotheses that are then tested or discarded as the evidence requires. In Astrology all evidence is selected or spun to fit the known outcome – because that outcome is what is wanted.
This ship is following IPCC Climatology – looking for evidence for manmade climate change. Not looking for evidence for natural events because that is not the mandate of the IPCC.
So, Glenn, is IPCC Climatology closer to Astrology or Astronomy?
Me, I think it is pseudo-science and the function of the press corps is the main purpose of this mockery of Mawson.
Glenn:
At January 1, 2014 at 10:05 pm you claim
Your claim is a blatant falsehood.
It is NOT courteous to present insulting falsehoods in polite language.
And your pretence of courtesy is a ploy which trolls often use on WUWT.
Your first post here was at January 1, 2014 at 11:50 am
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/30/the-antarctic-research-fiasco-would-you-could-you-in-a-boat/#comment-1520439
It began by saying to our host
That is about as insulting to our host as it is possible to be.
And it is untrue because he is not among those “who holds themselves up as” anything: he questions bad science notably bad science in climate. Indeed, your claim of his “ignorance” concerning such expeditions is refuted by the recent request for information from him by the trapped ship of fools
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/31/wuwt-and-weatherbell-help-kusi-tv-with-a-weather-forecasting-request-from-ice-trapped-ship-in-antarctica-akademik-shokalskiy/
Your first post got worse after that initial statement. And your subsequent posts have compounded your impolite behaviour.
Perhaps the most egregious of your offensive behaviours is your claim that local anecdotes have no value except when they are unreferenced claims of local anecdotes by Inuits which you assert are important. That is rude and insulting to everybody who questions your silly assertions.
As Johanna says of you
And you are an especially nasty troll because you are one of the group of trolls who falsely claim to be superior to serious commentators because they troll using polite forms of language.
You were amusing at first. Your trolling is now an irrelevant distraction.
Richard
pat says:
January 1, 2014 at 9:48 pm
up-to-date from new zealand:
looks like helicopter evacuation has been ruled out indefinitely! plus what does “this time because of sea ice” mean? what was it the other times?….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The other times it was bad weather conditions. Fog, wind.
what does “this time because of sea ice” mean?
I will hazard a SWAG.
The people aboard the Akademik Shokalskiy made a landing pad on the ice because the helicopter can not land on board. From what other commenters stated the helicopter does not have floatation devices and can not land in water.
If the ice where the landing pad was smoothed out has shifted because the ice is moving then the helicopter, (which is not ‘licensed to fly over open water’) can not land safely.
If this is what has happened then that ship is in an even more precarious position. The hull has already been damaged and repaired (structural integrity compromised?) and if the ice is moving it can move in such a way that it crushes the ship.
With luck the Polar Star is on the way and can get them out. The longer they stay trapped the less likely the outcome will be good.
James (Aus.) says:
January 2, 2014 at 12:19 am
Tourney need not return to Australia, and they probably don’t want him back in the UK, either. He is a blot on Antarctic research.
He uses the body language of a huckster in many of his videos.
The way they talk in this interview they seem to think they are in an icebreaker.
Paulo, you might be interested to know I have discussed homeostasis in the Avanersuaq tongue while on a research project funded by the MLA to the North-west of Greenland. It was while I was working on my second post-doc, “Toward a post colonial studies in deconstruction of eco-feminist critiques of the mammary mythos.”
We were sitting in what passed for a hot tub in “Inuit land,” actually more like a very large martini straight up. I well remember the touch of Jack Frosts brush on the mustaches of my companion, the wife of my host.She was a sort of Eskimo version of Joan Baez and if I only strained I could recall a much warmer experience at Esalen those many years ago…..
Oh God, my mind wanders when following the pug marks of “Glenn” across these comments (won’t someone tell him that “scare quotes” are as bad as CAPS LOCK as I won’t speak to it directly).
I ask you, what happened to the good old days when such puerile content was slapped down by good old “He Who Must Not Be Named” saying, “Start with ‘Bring the proxies up to date’ and read down to ‘Reports for newbies’ and get back to me in a couple months.
May I remind all my brothers and sisters whose names are not “Glenn,” of the rule of 100K…I use all asterisks in the hope of not getting snipped… ***-*****.
The rule is: even if you could convince “Glenn” to acquaint himself with the wonderful resource that is WUWT (please don’t snip me for snark), even if he learned what a Yamal is or what hide the decline really means or what the Bishops real name is, even if you could convince him of the error of his ways (MOUNT KILIMANJARO for God’s sake- pul-eeeze), there are another 99,999
***-****s right behind him so what’s the point. “Bernal”
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:01 pm
Man Bearpig
You wrote: “So, real Antarctic Scientists do not consider this as serious research and he is entitled to have this opinion as real research is suffering those fools.”
I would defer to any serious scientists in Antarctica as far as any critiques they have of this group. My initial post was a response to the narrative that this incident somehow was egg on the face of the entire “climate change community” or climate scientists in general. (i.e. an anecdotal story about a boat getting caught in the ice in Antarctica is really not much of a serious data point about whether the climate is changing). The opinion of other climate scientists was missing previously from the discussion.
———————————–
Do you seriously expect people to believe that this is good PR for the climate industry ? Perhaps that is how it started off, big_perhaps they tried to get stuck intentionally as it is reported that they ignored the captains requests to get back on the ship but I guess that could also come down to utter stupidity.
Genuine climate scientists express their concern about the ‘tourist boat’ and how it affected real science. I think that it is time to put an end to this ‘follow in the footsteps’ mullarky and leave the Antarctic Research to those that know and understand what they are doing and the risks involved.
Now about the costs. Would you insure these guys ? would you even insure the next ‘lets go to the north pole/NW passage sailing trip in the footsteps of St Roch (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Roch_%28ship%29)’? That was in 1944 – you know – when the Arctic was stuffed full of ice. LOL
Which reminds me, there were reported rescues from the Arctic ice last year too when everyone was under the impression that they could sail around there like there was no ice.
@Glenn 9:34
So you came here to argue about climate change sans CO2 and the anthropogenic component?
You sir are either stunningly ignorant or deliberately trolling.
Anyone with a modicum of education know climate changes,that history and the natural drivers of our climate are discussed on this site, at length.
The corruption of climatology/climate science is the doom and gloom belief that man changes climate catastrophically.
A belief so far berit of any empirical measurements,causation or falsifiable theorem.
Yet the reason the IPCC exists.
@10:05 the word for this ain’t troll, that is way too polite.
Colorado Wellington says: “Helicopter from ice to ice. I pray it goes well.”
Yes, with absolutely as little helicopter over open water as possible.
@ Gail Combs says:
January 1, 2014 at 11:01 pm
————————–
Gail – you can’t say “lying” according to negrum
@ negrum – How is that logic and discourse “thingy” doing with Glenn ?
I’ve just had the following deleted by the Guardian.
I even link to one of their OWN articles……
i’m…….bemused….
……………………………
This is also very interesting. It’s a slightly older article about Arctic ice loss and very significant ice loss in Greenland and very rapid glacier retreats of the order of 900 feet per year.
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/136317997
P.S. Why has my comment that linked to an older Guardian article been removed? It was a Guardian article for heavens sake.
Here it is again in case I was deleted in error.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/17/antarctica-tropical-climate-co2-research?commentpage=3
While we are waiting for the outcome of the evacuation:
I don’t think most of these fools understand how scarce the available polar rescue assets really are. Among the cold water powers, the United States has one of the smallest icebreaker fleets of only 2 vessels: The refurbished 1976-built USCGC Polar Star and the newer 1997-built USCGC Healy. The Polar Star was sitting idle in a nearly decommissioned status before it got refurbished and put back in operation last year. Its identical twin, the Polar Sea was saved in the last moment from dismantling and it’s still awaiting its fate.
I happened to read this report in The Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/02/antarctic-rescue-under-way-akademik
What caught my attention was this bit
➢ The passengers were due to be taken off in five groups, with two further flights to pick up their baggage.
Huh?!?! BAGGAGE?!?!?
Whoever has traveled by ship and had bothered to read the emergency instruction knows that in case of emergency evacuation the baggage is not included – evacuees are not even allowed to take hand luggage with them.
So what kind of luxury evacuation is this?
According to the BBC an hour ago the second helicopter flight was about to take off with another 12 passengers. The BBC correspondent on board is on the 4th flight out.
No mention by the BBC as to WHY they had a correspondent on board and they only mention it is a Russian research ship, with none of the ironic details.
tonyb
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/232290/passengers-finally-off-boat-in-antarctic
Evac under way, “tourists” off Akademie
I’ve just been “pre-moderated” at the Guardian website.
Had nowhere else to cry…Thank you for allowing my pathetic whinge….I am just a simple man trying to make his way in the world and just don’t know a naive question from an insightful one….
Sniff…..
@climatereason
Probably because BBC routinely puts correspondents on Russian research ships …
My first comment on any Akademik Shokalskiy thread.
Great news about the helicopter evacuation being partly completed and still progressing successfully.
The rescued should now provide simple humble thanks for a benevolent world’s actions.
Plans and people put the Akademik Shokalskiy in enough danger to require personnel rescue. Irony is an inadequate word for characterization of the Akademik Shokalskiy scenario as it played out.
Professional incompetence is a better word for the ship’s officers and the scientific PR seekers onboard.
John
jones
You have my sympathy. It is quite traumatic losing one’s right to an opinion in the forum that reflects your past views.
It’s thew shock that your opponent can’t be bothered to defend themselves. As though they know they are wrong and seek to lie by enforced omission.
Pre-moderation is censorship.
There may be a little insurrection afoot at the BBC:
I thought the scribes were not supposed to say that now.
M Courtney
Thanks for that. Frankly it doesn’t surprise at all.
I’ve actually been getting comments deleted literally by the dozen in recent days. Never abusive or inciting to anything. Just not following the narrative.
What I honestly find bizarre is that they will literally censor a simple link to THEIR OWN newspaper? As above. I mean, how Orwellian is that?
Thanks again.
Andy
Here is a video log of their “travels” on our dime:
http://www.youtube.com/user/christurney
It also shows a helecopter landing near the ship (4 hours ago)
richardscourtney says:
January 1, 2014 at 9:16 am
Richard … my point is, the above article suggests we should not have ships in the Antarctic … if this is the case then we should not have ships/rigs in the Arctic? I have worked in the oil industry in the Arctic …. so your fumes/rants were all for nothing.
Teddi says:
January 1, 2014 at 11:42 pm
@ negrum says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:10 am
Sorry
——————–
Yes, you are sorry, but that’s not really the point…
—–
The sorry was to the mods for the repost – don’t flatter yourself. We are working towards the same goal, but differ about methods. This blog is only one of the approaches to counter the CAGW threat and there is usually less of the ranting and hysteria than you seem to prefer.
The CAGW movement is composed of a few groups. The ones managing the spin are far more dangerous than the ones spreading the obvious falsehoods. WUWT and Climateaudit
provides excellent references to counter the spin, to the point where other blogs are starting to copy it and even the MSM has to refer to it occasionally (though very reluctantly.)
Your style sound remarkably like the warmists call for “action now.” I am only surprised that you are not typing all caps. You would be more useful if you were to troll warmist sites (not that I am recommending it.) If you prefer the activist route, you are welcome to live out your cheerleading fantasies, but there are other blogs where can attract many more followers than you will get here.
As for your kindly concern about Glenn, try reading past the obvious in my posts. Your refuge in sarcasm merely confirms my suspicion that you cannot string together any kind of rational argument.
Glen.
You said we ought to look up the definition of the scientific method.
ok.
scientific method
noun
1.
a method of procedure that has characterized natural science since the 17th century, consisting in systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation, testing, and modification of hypotheses.
“criticism is the backbone of the scientific method”.
So you will be criticised for trolling and lacking any criticality to the ever mounting and burgeoning doubts over the theory of AGW.
Glenn said, “(Mr. Watts and the rest of us are) a strong critic of climate science”
Who is a strong critic of climate science? I can assure you no one here is a critic of science.
you must have the wrong site. Find the correct site and please try again.
Damn! if I’d only known that I could get a T-shirt and my name on a web site for only $200, I would have been in there like a flash!
To dear Glenn,
Jay Zwally (12 Dec 2007) said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png
Maybe not…..
JB:
re your silly post addressed to me at January 2, 2014 at 2:53 am
This links to my post at January 1, 2014 at 9:16 am
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/30/the-antarctic-research-fiasco-would-you-could-you-in-a-boat/#comment-1520321
As anyone can see by using the link, I did not provide “fumes/rants”.
I expressed contempt for your assertions. And I stand by my concluding paragraphs to you which say of you and the passengers on the ship of fools
And you are wrong when you say my post was
Obviously, you were never going to be capable of understanding my post, but impartial onlookers can assess it.
Richard
The BBC are spinning this as just a Weird Weird Weather problem.
Typical.
News reports this morning said those fools were singing and telling jokes during their rescue.
Do these idiots realize that their religious belief in bogus global warming jeopardized their lives, and that fossil fuels saved their lives?
richardscourtney says:
January 2, 2014 at 3:34 am
lol
Glenn quoted @ Jan 1, 1:32 pm:
“We came to Antarctica to study how one of the biggest icebergs in the world has altered the system by TRAPPING ICE”.
They said that after getting stuck. Show me where they said it before. In the promotional description of the expedition, no iceberg is mentioned. It starts with:
http://www.spiritofmawson.com/the-science-case/
“The Australasian Antarctic Expedition of 1911-1914 resulted in the first complete study of the vast region which lies south of Australia and New Zealand.”
That refers to Antarctica, not a special case. It discusses climate change and global warming but nothing about ice being trapped by an iceberg. That idea came later.
“One of the aims was to track how quickly the Antarctic’s sea ice was disappearing.” – BBC
They went to do some good but were overpowered by natural forces — maybe a fitting parable regarding the futility of global social change plans, trying to train everyone into agreeing who should have how many babies, what they should eat and consume, how much electricity rations they get, and so on, as if free will was no longer a human right or fact. Seven billion people are like all those shifting icepacks, moving with a mind of their own in great masses, and all environmental politics which think this can be controlled are just silly.
From BBC report: previously linked, now updated:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25573096
“Rescuers in Antarctica have safely transferred all 52 passengers stranded on the ice-bound research vessel Akademik Shokalskiy.”
It will be interesting to see if any polar expedition in the future will be so blatant about their CAGW research.
#spiritofPTBarnum
JB says:
January 2, 2014 at 3:52 am
_________________________
I almost feel the need to apologize to you, JB. I’d been following your conversation from the beginning and knew what you were talking about and where you stood. I watched as someone came into the middle of your conversation and misinterpreted what was going on and subsequently (and mistakenly) began taking you to task.
I’d thought about saying something at the time, but my grasshopper mind jumped somewhere else. Oh, well. You don’t really need a hand, anyway.
Alan Robertson says:
January 2, 2014 at 4:29 am
From BBC report: previously linked, now updated:
—–
No mention of the luggage. I would have loved to hear the chopper pilot’s private comments on that one.
Glenn (January 1, 2014 at 10:05 pm) “Or it could be I was trying to be gracious enough to acknowledge those who responded or addressed a post to me (especially in your case since you asked several times for me to answer your question and seemed upset when I hadn’t gotten to you yet). Don’t worry, I see the mistake in that now. I gave you much more courtesy than you’ve returned, and in the process I wasted time I could have spent on more in-depth responses to more worthy posters like Just The Facts.”
I think you need to take your own advice and respond to only one poster in depth. Also do not refer to the other posters as “less worthy”, then count up the brownie points you are owed for being courteous and graceful.
If you go into one topic in depth that should help prevent you from personalizing the discussion. Just state whatever facts you possess and leave it at that. You will only make progress in any discussion on this topic by going into depth. Glossing over 100 different topics means we only hear the conventional wisdom from either side in the discussion, not the details that matter. There are many examples of that above, but having read everything your wrote, I can point to your discussion on the Arctic as being particularly devoid of useful detail. You contributed exactly nothing to our collective understanding of the Arctic.
Alan Robertson:
You conclude your post addressed to JB at January 2, 2014 at 4:49 am saying
I agree. JB has a shovel and persists in using it.
Richard
Bernal says: @ January 2, 2014 at 12:38 am
even if you could convince him of the error of his ways (MOUNT KILIMANJARO for God’s sake- pul-eeeze), there are another 99,999 ***-****s right behind him so what’s the point. “Bernal”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You are missing the entire point of why the rest of us respond.
Our comments are not aimed at the Warmists who, armed with training from Al Gore’s “Climate Reality Leaders” sessions, sally forth to do battle with the evil den!ers, but at the peanut gallery. – The silent watchers who come here to learn. The fence sitters.
The Warmists have figured out they have little presence on the internet compared to WUWT. The news, like the BBC and Gruniad is obviously bias and more over completely silent on the opposing view. If they want to win the undecided they have to come here where the curious and undecided come.
So it is here we battle to get the truth out.
Jones –
“I’ve actually been getting comments deleted literally by the dozen in recent days. Never abusive or inciting to anything. Just not following the narrative.”
– You have my sympathy, along with many here I’m sure. I’m now on my second account at CiF after being imprisoned in “pre-moderation” purgatory. Similarly, my comments have no name-calling, abuse, or anything remotely objectionable yet somehow they get zapped on a regular basis. I think the worst aspect of one of my most recently removed comments was that it was mildly sarcastic. It’s a horrible, horrible experience to find yourself censored – with no recourse – just because of presenting an opposing point of view.
– I tried tracking the extent of Guardian censorship a couple of years ago. I set up bots to monitor new CiF articles and maintain a mySQL database of comments as they came in. The threads would be checked again every 10 minutes or so and deleted comments were flagged to see if I could statistically demonstrate that particular POVs were consistently censored. Unfortunately I ended up in a running battle with the Guardian webmaster so had to can the project prematurely. I’m now launching my bots from a cloud platform though so I might give it a go again soon.
The BBC has been very closed about the purpose of the expedition and have couched reports about it the usual spinned phrases such as: “An adventure” and “Something for the tourists to tell their grandchildren about” (implying some equivalence to going to war).
The comment that made me facepalm a few times was: “Freak weather conditions hindered this trip.”
These people live in a bubble. Sadly for us the bubble has a very tough skin and I doubt this event will make the bubble burst.
Katabasis, please do try to expose the shenanigans at the Guardian Environment desk.
It doesn’t seem to be representative of the Guardian website as a whole.
So SkS influence (which is when it became very bad – Dana’s arrival) may be worth exposing to the Guardian editorial board.
For the benefit of democratic discourse in the UK.
PS I am also in pre-moderation purgatory.
How about the UN administer a fee for anyone wants to prance around on the ice?
To the tune of a couple million (Euros or Dollars (US or AU). To compensate for the possibility of having to rescue them.
That would dampen their spirits a bit.
This from the BBC
One of the aims was to track how quickly the Antarctic’s sea ice was disappearing.
Antarctic sea ice as we all know is at an almost half-century high and 2SD above the 1980-2000 average, having increased especially fast in the last decade.
M Courtney says:
January 2, 2014 at 5:37 am
Katabasis, please do try to expose the shenanigans at the Guardian Environment desk.
It doesn’t seem to be representative of the Guardian website as a whole.
So SkS influence (which is when it became very bad – Dana’s arrival) may be worth exposing to the Guardian editorial board.
For the benefit of democratic discourse in the UK.
PS I am also in pre-moderation purgatory.
———————–
Or give them enough rope .. ?
jakee308 says:
January 2, 2014 at 5:40 am
How about the UN administer a fee for anyone wants to prance around on the ice?
To the tune of a couple million (Euros or Dollars (US or AU). To compensate for the possibility of having to rescue them.
That would dampen their spirits a bit.
_________________________
How about we don’t give any more money to the UN?
Who pays for rescuing these people?
As far as environmental damage from sunken ships, the USS Arizona, sunk on December 7, 1941 in Pearl Harbor, is still leaking oil and other fluids.*
*Ordinarily, a battleship sunk an a harbor would be removed, but the Arizona was left intact as a memorial. The point is, left alone, these wrecks affect the environment for a long time.
Canada’s National Post newspaper has a softball article on the ice-bound ship:
“Scientists trapped in Antarctic ice await dramatic helicopter rescue after week spent ‘singing with the seals’”
http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/01/01/scientists-trapped-in-antarctic-ice-await-dramatic-helicopter-rescue-after-week-spent-singing-with-the-seals/
What struck me about this article was this sentence: “The passengers, mostly scientists and volunteers, would be shuttled a dozen at a time in an estimated seven flights — journeys that would span about five hours until the rescue was complete, the authority said. The 22-person crew would stay with the ship.”
“Mostly scientists and volunteers”?! Hardly!
@ Katabasis
The clearest indication of editorial intent I ever saw on climate change from the MSM was in response to this article in The Age of Melbourne, Victoria 2009.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/society-and-culture/sceptics-find-comfort-in-cost-of-change-20091211-kojb.html
When I realised comment order was being altered, I collated the responses and rated them as being either positive or negative toward A.G.W, then did cumulative frequency graphs.
In chronological order, it looked like this…
In editorial order, positive comment was pushed to the front, negative comment to the rear and this was the result…
After that, I never had any doubt there was an agenda.
I’m only through the first 200 comments but have been wondering if there is a protocol for who gets eaten first,(crew, scientist, or journ-o-list?
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:55 pm
Dirk H,
“I would encourage you to actually look up the definition of “The Scientific Method”. You might also want to consider the level and complexity of the math that actually goes into the field. Climate Science is not based on the idea that “humans cause global warming, lets prove it”, It is based on the idea of trying to find how different elements of the environment interact to influence the climate, and how changes in environment may change the climate.”
I would encourage YOU to do some independent thinking because at the moment you are either a useful idiot or a know nothing numpty.
You do know that the warmist Climate Scientists are proven liars don’t you?
They say about the current increasing trend in Antarctic ice…
‘Oh OF COURSE we expected that, it is increasing due to AGW and all the warming causing increased precipitation and this and that and the other. We have always expected this because we are clever climate scientists and it is the bleeding obvious anyway’
But what did the IPCC in the TAR actually say about the forecast for Antarctic sea ice in the 21st century?
“A reduction in Antarctic sea ice volume of about 25-45% is predicted for a doubling of CO2, with sea ice retreating fairly evenly around the continent (Gordon and O’Farrell, 1997). This CSIRO model assumes a 1% yr-1 compounding increase of CO2, corresponding to global warming of 2.1°C. Using a similar but modified model that has a higher albedo feedback and predicted global warming of 2.8°C, Wu et al. (1999) calculate a reduction in mean sea-ice extent of nearly two degrees of latitude, corresponding to 45% of sea-ice volume. These estimates do not represent the equilibrium state, and sea ice can be expected to shrink further, even if GHGs are stabilized.”
So they actually predicted a 25-45% decrease and of course it was going to get even worse than that, as is always the case with climate science.
So they were either lying then or they are lying now, either way they are proven liars.
Perhaps you can tell us in what other walks of life you implicitly trust proven liars and are prepared to invest a significant part of your wealth and future well being in their pronouncements?
Mind you, in typical warmist faith fashion, I expect you to run away from this post going La La La inside your little head.
Alan
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:55 pm
Dirk H,
“I would encourage you to actually look up the definition of “The Scientific Method”.
—————–
Can you tell the climate scientists at CRU the same please …
[i]Even if WMO agrees, I will still not pass on the data. We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it…
-Phil Jones email Feb. 21, 2005″[/i]
———————-
Nicely put eh? Perfect example of the ‘Scientific Method’ or the ‘Climate Scientific Method’
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 7:13 pm
Chris B.
You wrote: “LOL It’s January 1st, not April 1st. Thanks for having us on. We needed a little humor to relive the stress of the rescue effort.”
Care to share with us your extensive knowledge of the Southern Ocean currents around Antarctica and what the localized weather patterns are? Do you know what the average summer temperatures are at those latitudes? Did you know there has been increased precipitation trend in that area over recent years? Care to weigh in on the causes of that? If you want to laugh, give me some science to back up your joke.
—————————————————-
In case you’ve forgotten, here’s your explanation of what’s happening in Antarctica:
“It is conceivable that melt coming in from different points along the Antarctic coast is getting carried around and freezing only in certain localized areas where the conditions are ideal, and not freezing elsewhere. I don’t know if this is happening but it is not as ridiculous a hypothesis as you are assuming.”
Yes your hypothesis is ridiculous. The bay was clear in 1912 and a wooden vessel made it in and out easily. A modern fossil fuel driven ship attempting to do the same is currently stuck in thick ice despite your magic current hypothesis.
Until there’s an indication that you know what you’re talking about you ought to refrain from using ad hominum arguments
I think that we may have just observed the creation of a new phrase in the lexicon of science, “Tourist Scientist”. Seems to sum up the current situation quite well 🙂
@RichardLH, Tourist scientist with its well muzzled presstitute running cover.
Glenn:
Take AGW out of it for a second. I haven’t actually made any statements specifically referring to CO2 causing anything, in fact I should have made a disclaimer in earlier posts that my interests are not in pushing any particular reasons for changes in climate
Glenn, I think you need to do some research. Practically all of ‘climate science’ revolves around AGW and the idea that CO2 emissions cause warming. Those who disagree are pariahs within the community. No alternative ideas are even allowed to be heard. As others have suggested – do a little looking & reading. Read the archives here. Read the Climategate letters. You’ll see where the people here are coming from.
And also, take your ideas to RS or SKS and see how they react. I think you’ll find this is far from a hostile forum.
So the New Year’s Eve party – goers are off the Russian ship embarking on an Austrailian junket whilst singing more songs.. Now the Russian crew waits locked in ice. I hope that Turney’s party does not turn into tragedy for the crew while Turney et al continue to party it up back in Australia. I am embarrassed for them.
This was nothing more than a junket; an outing at taxpayer expense, and thus with only the pretense of doing actual science. The “scientific” conclusions were already foregone ones; all they wanted were a few details about conditions there that they could slap on top, to give the appearance of science. Thus:
Fewer penguins? CAGW
More penguins? CAGW
Less ice? CAGW
More ice? CAGW
Lower salinity? CAGW
Higher salinity? CAGW
Etc. Etc.? CAGW
On top of everything was the obvious danger they put themselves and potential resuers in. This was foolhardiness in the extreme.
@ Gail Combs, 5:19
Of course you are right and a better person than I am.
In that moment I felt tele-connected back to the early days when McIntyre started wondering aloud about hockey and Real Climate came along attempting to shut him up. I was thinking about all of the effort that serious people have put into this work, and how little effort it would take a person of good will like Glenn, bless his heart, to get up to speed without being spoon fed.
It’s just the “have you ever asked an Inuit” sort of comment that did me in with its presumption that bad faith lies at the heart of skeptical thinking. A few out-liers aside almost everyone here would probably agree that it has warmed since the 1850s and that humans probably had something to do with that through changes in land use and burning of fossil fuel and other factors. From Anthony all the way through to Mosher we are all various stripes of luke-warmer, really. Some are more annoying than others.
Most of us probably doubt the positive feedback regime that is necessary to produce CAGW, or climate change, weirding, disruption or whatever they call it these days. Most of us doubt the wisdom of destroying the world’s economy on the basis of speculation and unicorn sightings. Maybe Glenn should think about what the world looks like with 20, 50, 80 percent reduction in carbon burning.
Glenn, warmist dogma is not based in the scientific method. If it was Mike Mann and his cohort would be the strongest and foremost critics of their own work as Feynman prescribed for any scientist. They find the scientific method out-moded and use the post-scientific method in their work, i.e. we presume this problem exists and we need to create a narrative that makes people want to do something about it before it’s too late, sort of thing. That’s why their work is unfalsifiable. That’s why there were reporters on the boat and why reporters have found so many dire consequences of Climate Change. http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
Cheers, Gail, best wishes for a good new year.
Now the rewriting of history and the wholesale denial begins, Banana boy’s glorious selfie has been deleted, account canceled. That did not take long.
We appear to be Glennless 🙂
I wonder if they jumped on the copter so fast that they forgot to tip the crew.
RichardLH says:
January 2, 2014 at 7:35 am
I think that we may have just observed the creation of a new phrase in the lexicon of science, “Tourist Scientist”. Seems to sum up the current situation quite well 🙂
john robertson says:
January 2, 2014 at 7:50 am
@RichardLH, Tourist scientist with its well muzzled presstitute running cover.
_______________________________________–
Scientourists on a Scientourism junket?
Sound better?
It seems to me that the change in presentation of this story in the press is very important. From science story to a bunch of tourists to proof that something weird is going on with the ice (ahem)… this story has humiliated the editors of the mainstream media.
Someone must notice. It can’t be good in the competitive atmosphere of the newsroom, “So you want to put this AGW story in, eh? Well my story is better as it won’t need disavowing in two weeks time,”. There may be allies to be gained in the media if we don’t tar all journalists the same.
Now did I get the 1000th comment?
Missed by 1 (999)
Sorry about that, Mods, but it made my day.
Little things..
[Note for the record: this is response #1,000. ~ mod ☺]
Just The Facts –
Picking back up from the discussion relating to Arctic and Antarctic sea ice coverage, specifically your post @from 8:49 last night….
The fact that Arctic Sea Ice has been on a downward trend, and that the Arctic Ocean is becoming more accessible during the summer months is not something that is a controversial opinion, even amongst the non-AGW community. Going to the charts, starting with the Canadian Archipelago one you posted http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/region.all.anom.region.12.jpg, you see that of the 9 lowest lows for summer ice coverage, 6 have happened in the last 8 years. Of course this is not an extensive area so the plot requires closer examination. The trend becomes easier to pick up when you look at the Arctic Basin plot http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html where the last 8 summers have seen the 8 lowest amounts of summer ice coverage. For those with varying winter coverage levels such as the Greenland Sea, the last decade has been spent mostly on the low side of the mean.
So this brings us to Antarctica. The general consensus is that the Southern Ocean is warming, so why is sea ice generally on the rise in Antarctica? One tested theory is that stronger polar vortex winds are contributing http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00139.1 The idea being that the stronger winds drive the ice faster leading to more ridging and thicker ice which can better survive into the summer. At the same point this pushing of the ice ends up exposing more surrounding water to the same high cold winds, generating more ice volume. There is also the fact that precipitation has been on the increase, and is predicted to increase, especially in East Antarctica. The general premise that any increases in ice in Antarctica casts serious doubt on climate change is overly simplistic.
Glenn asks “The general consensus is that the Southern Ocean is warming. so why is the sea ice generally on the rise?” It helps to remember that “warming” is a strictly relative term. The Ship of Fools was hit by a blizzard in midsummer. A couple of years ago, when a model clearly showed Antarctica had warmed by about 0.5 deg C, a resident observed that the average temperature at his base was -58 deg C, and he hadn’t noticed much warming. Even now along most of the coast, with long summer days, the temperature is usually below freezing. Could that be the answer?
On another tack, I am puzzled as to why an expedition launched in the Spirit of Mawson could have been abandoned by its supposed scientists. I can understand the rescue of the women and children, and I can forgive the rescue of the journos, but the scientist in me would have stayed on the ship with the crew to try to complete my scientific work. Mawson stuck it out; these rats ran.
Glenn:
At January 2, 2014 at 7:39 pm you write
Another “possibility” is that the “general consensus” is wrong.
Possibilities are infinite in number.
And “consensus” is politics but NOT science.
The “general consensus” said ice would decrease in polar regions.
The opposite has happened in reality.
High Priests of the Cult of AGW offer up “possibilities” which attempt to explain away why reality has done the opposite of their predictions. And the acolytes of those High Priests spout those “possibilities” as though the excuses have some merit: they don’t.
Allow me to introduce you to the scientific method.
When a conjecture leads to a prediction which reality shows is wrong then the conjecture is falsified.
I advise you to disavow your cult and its false prophets. Accept reality and your life will be less stressed.
Richard
Glenn says: January 2, 2014 at 7:39 pm
The fact that Arctic Sea Ice has been on a downward trend, and that the Arctic Ocean is becoming more accessible during the summer months is not something that is a controversial opinion, even amongst the non-AGW community. Going to the charts, starting with the Canadian Archipelago one you posted http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/region.all.anom.region.12.jpg, you see that of the 9 lowest lows for summer ice coverage, 6 have happened in the last 8 years. Of course this is not an extensive area so the plot requires closer examination.
There is ample evidence that the largest contributor to the downward trend in Arctic Sea Ice is wind and Atmospheric Oscillations, i.e.:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/06/16/the-economist-provides-readers-with-erroneous-information-about-arctic-sea-ice/
Per this 2004 Science Daily article, ”Winds, Ice Motion Root Cause Of Decline In Sea Ice, Not Warmer Temperatures“:
Per this 2007 NASA article NASA Examines Arctic Sea Ice Changes Leading to Record Low in 2007;
Per this 2010 NASA article NASA Study Quantifies Role of Melt in Loss of Old Arctic Sea Ice
Per this 2013 NSIDC article A better year for the cryosphere
The trend becomes easier to pick up when you look at the Arctic Basin plot http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.1.html where the last 8 summers have seen the 8 lowest amounts of summer ice coverage.
Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Yes, the Arctic Basin plot seems to reflect wind and Atmospheric Oscillation driven loss of Multi-Year Ice between 2006 and 2012;
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]
and the significant increase in 2013 “because this year’s wind pattern was different than 2012” and “cooler conditions this summer also helped preserve more of the first-year ice through the summer.”
Per this European Space Agency article Arctic Sea Ice Up From Record Low
Per this 2004 paper “Variations in the Age of Arctic Sea-ice and Summer Sea-ice Extent” by Ignatius G. Rigor and John M. Wallace:
So this brings us to Antarctica. The general consensus is that the Southern Ocean is warming
Bob Tisdale – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
I am not sure where you came up with this “general consensus”, but the Sea Surface data indicates the exact opposite:
[caption id="attachment_54067" align="alignnone" width="568"]
And Southern Polar Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly has a negative trend as well;
[caption id="attachment_54067" align="alignnone" width="568"]
so why is sea ice generally on the rise in Antarctica? One tested theory is that stronger polar vortex winds are contributing http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00139.1 The idea being that the stronger winds drive the ice faster leading to more ridging and thicker ice which can better survive into the summer. At the same point this pushing of the ice ends up exposing more surrounding water to the same high cold winds, generating more ice volume. There is also the fact that precipitation has been on the increase, and is predicted to increase, especially in East Antarctica.
There is significant evidence that the Southern Polar Vortex has become stronger, colder, and more persistent, i.e.:
And it has been proposed that;
however the author of this paper Jinlun Zhang has a history of contorting himself to try to hide the gaps in the Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming Narrative. For example, in this NASA article/press release it states that:
and in this paper titled “What drove the dramatic retreat of Arctic sea ice during summer 2007?” by Zhang, J., R.W. Lindsay , M. Steele, and A. Schweiger, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L11505, doi:10.1029/2008GL034005, 2008, it states that “Arctic sea ice in 2007 was preconditioned to radical changes” and this contributed to “The dramatic decline” . This is not objective science, rather it’s alarmist rhetoric.
Zhang was already looking for an Arctic Sea Ice tipping points in 2005, i.e. the title of this paper paper was “The thinning of arctic sea ice, 1988–2003: have we passed a tipping point?” by Lindsay, R. W. and J. Zhang, J. Climate, 18, 4879–4894, 2005.
In 2006 Zhang co-wrote a paper with Mark “Death Spiral” Serreze and Keith “the lack of warming … is a travesty” Trenberth, titled “The large-scale energy budget of the Arctic” by Serreze, M. C., A. P. Barrett, A. G. Slater, M. Steele, J. Zhang, and K. E. Trenberth, , J. Geophys Res., 112, D11122, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008230, 2007.
Regardless, it is likely that the Southern Polar Vorticity is a significant driver of Southern Sea Ice. However, the same can said for Northern Polar Vorticity and Northern Sea Ice i.e.:
Both the Northern and Southern Polar Vortices are visible on this Zonal Mean Temperatures at 50-hPa/mb map:
NOAA – National Weather Service – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source[/caption]
[caption id="" align="alignnone" width="578"]
The general premise that any increases in ice in Antarctica casts serious doubt on climate change is overly simplistic.
“Increases in ice in Antarctica” don’t cast “serious doubt” on CAGW, the 9 – 17 year Pause in Earth’s Temperature does:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/15/a-big-picture-look-at-earths-temperature-santer-17-update/
Glenn says:
January 1, 2014 at 8:18 pm
negrum,
I think I still need to get back to your second post to me in which you asked: “For clarification on your point #4, could you cite the link of the post that you are referring to? This will help me to ensure we are talking about the same thing.”
I took issue with the idea that an upward trend over the last few months refutes the idea that sea ice in the Arctic has been disappearing.
—-
Good to see you are staying. I thought we had lost you:)
Unfortunately we still seem to difffer in our reading comprehension. Are you sure you meant to say:
” – #4 In your separate blog post on the matter, you refute the claim of these scientists that sea ice is increasing in the Arctic by using a plot with a timescale from September-December of this year … ”
As it stands, it appears that you are saying that these scientists (I presume you mean those aboard the Akademik Shokalskiy) are claiming that sea ice is INcreasing in the Arctic. Perhaps you meant that these scientists claim that sea ice is DEcreasing in the Arctic? Precise writing is very important.
As a matter of interest, has your view been in any way altered by the arguments advanced so far? Do you feel that any commentators on this blog might have a valid point or do you feel they are all wrong?
Negrum,
My absence during the day yesterday was due to work (which I didn’t have during New Year’s Day). I generally try not to waste my employers money getting into political internet discussions all day. They are too time consuming. 🙂
You wrote: “As it stands, it appears that you are saying that these scientists (I presume you mean those aboard the Akademik Shokalskiy) are claiming that sea ice is INcreasing in the Arctic. Perhaps you meant that these scientists claim that sea ice is DEcreasing in the Arctic? Precise writing is very important.”
—————————
You’re right, I somehow missed that I had wrote “increasing”, which explains the confusion. I was referring to the quote from someone in the group highlighted by Anthony Watts in a separate post which had said “Sea ice is disappearing due to climate change, but here ice is building up”. Watts responded by saying “Um, no, sea ice isn’t disappearing right now, it is growing in the Arctic and within two standard deviations:” and then posted the recent four month trend. My objection was that no one is claiming that the Arctic ice disappears as we head into January, just that the seasonal volumes have been on a general downward trend.
——————–
“As a matter of interest, has your view been in any way altered by the arguments advanced so far? Do you feel that any commentators on this blog might have a valid point or do you feel they are all wrong?”
——————-
I should also address this to Richard who essentially implied I was just a Global Warming cultist. My position is that humans are contributing to the climate, but the full ramifications are not known. For the record I do not advocate for the United States to go out on its own and impose harsh regulations, as this will simply drive industry into the arms of less environmentally-friendly countries, likely making the climate worse while the US takes the economic hit for its efforts.
My main objection is seeing people casually dismiss advanced research with oversimplified and superficial critiques. I never meant to imply there isn’t room for legit scientific critiques, or that anybody who disagrees with the majority scientific opinion have absolutely no valid points. A friend of mine who is a post-doctorate in Applied Mathematics, focusing on atmospheric and ocean science, often tells people that those scientists who disagree with human-influenced climate change could still end up being more right in the end, they just happen to be going up against the vast majority of scientists at this point. Neither side has found a definitive smoking gun yet.
I’ll try to visit regularly here as best I can. My schedule is hectic with three young kids at home, and getting into the necessary depth to discuss these issues is time-consuming, especially if I am trying to cover one side of the argument myself and answer multiple queries. I spend a lot of time at a private political forum which invites posters from all sides (but is quick to boot out trouble makers). There the political talking points tend to get filtered out pretty quick and the discussions are fairly fruitful. I’ve come to realize how many people on both the right and left seem so sure of themselves, but simply don’t know what they don’t know.
I try to come across as fair and open-minded, but looking back on how I chose to enter this forum two days ago, the posters who tried to label me a troll were not as far off as I wanted to believe. I would have to admit I was probably hoping to stir things up a bit, which is generally a trollish thing to do. I also should not have used as much of a sneering tone right off the bat. Some posters were not exactly contributing meaningful dialogue either, but I appreciate those who were sincere in their responses.
Glenn, your last paragraph is probably one of the most honest, humble, courageous things I’ve seen in a long time on ANY forum. It takes a person of integrity to openly admit the things you did, and you just gained HUGE points in my book. Thanks for clarifying your stance. I think we share far more in common with each other than you think. 🙂
Glenn says: January 3, 2014 at 1:04 pm
My position is that humans are contributing to the climate, but the full ramifications are not known.
I agree, I just have not seen any evidence that human generated CO2 has been a major contributor to the recent climate, and have no confidence in wild predictions about what Earth’s climate may look like 86 years from now.
For the record I do not advocate for the United States to go out on its own and impose harsh regulations
Why do we need “harsh” regulations at all? What we need to figure out is how to transfer environmental awareness and environmentally friendly technology/processes to the 2nd and 3rd world so that they can impose fair and reasonable regulations in order to help prevent pollution and associated health issues and environmental destruction. It doesn’t make sense for the US to spend huge sums trying to get rid of the last microgram of power plant mercury out of our air;
http://www.epa.gov/mats/powerplants.html
when the biggest mercury risk to the average American is a broken florescent bulb;
http://www2.epa.gov/cfl/cleaning-broken-cfl
which we are all now compelled buy due to a “harsh” regulation.
I never meant to imply there isn’t room for legit scientific critiques, or that anybody who disagrees with the majority scientific opinion have absolutely no valid points.
Have I made any invalid points? 🙂
A friend of mine who is a post-doctorate in Applied Mathematics, focusing on atmospheric and ocean science, often tells people that those scientists who disagree with human-influenced climate change could still end up being more right in the end
Sounds like a smart friend, they even throw in the “more” to help people flex their minds and see the grey. You should send them this link to the WUWT Reference Pages;
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/
they might mind it useful or have a suggestion of additional data or data sources that we should add to the pages.
I’ve come to realize how many people on both the right and left seem so sure of themselves, but simply don’t know what they don’t know.
When it comes to Earth’s climate, there is so much to know, and there is so much that we don’t know. It is thus better to accept that we know very little, then to delude ourselves into thinking that we know it all.
I try to come across as fair and open-minded, but looking back on how I chose to enter this forum two days ago, the posters who tried to label me a troll were not as far off as I wanted to believe. I would have to admit I was probably hoping to stir things up a bit, which is generally a trollish thing to do. I also should not have used as much of a sneering tone right off the bat.
There’s nothing wrong with stirring things up, on occasion I have been know to do so on other forums as well, but a sneering tone can invite and encourage certain kinds of responses. I prefer a respectful tone with doses of humor and dripping sarcasm as needed. 🙂
Glenn says:
January 3, 2014 at 1:04 pm
Negrum
—–
Thank you for clearing up point 4. I wiill get get back to you on that when I have worked through all the arguments.
I am very pleased that you have expressed yourself so well. Some commentators are over-eager, but I think they have a lot of insight into the CAGW issue and are worth a fair hearing. Take time to read some of the older threads; you might find a lot of useful info in there.There is also a process of troll-weeding, which you seem to have survived. WUWT is not a popular site with the mainstream media (possibly because it is doing the work they are supposed to do and on a non-existing budget as well) so from time to time well-meaning and not so well-meaning posters try to derail discussions here.
One thing that I do recommend is that you add citations (time consuming, but worth it – you can see that the serious posters here usually do it) to statements such as: “My objection was that no one is claiming that the Arctic ice disappears as we head into January, just that the seasonal volumes have been on a general downward trend.” This enables posters to determine whom you consider authorities on the specific subject and the validity of those authorities can then be discussed. It tends to move the discussion away from personal attacks (it can of course be misused.) If two parties clearly don’t agree on the authorities, pointless wrangling (as entertaining as it might be) is normally shut down.
Also, and I cannot stress it enough, do not accuse the host of this site of improper behaviour unless you have very good evidence, since the commentators won’t be kind to you and your stay will be less than happy.
Glenn:
I write to second the post from Aphan addressed to you at January 3, 2014 at 2:05 pm.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/30/the-antarctic-research-fiasco-would-you-could-you-in-a-boat/#comment-1523348
And I very strongly commend the advice that negrum has given you at January 4, 2014 at 2:18 am
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/30/the-antarctic-research-fiasco-would-you-could-you-in-a-boat/#comment-1523880
You made an unfortunate start but that is past. There is now no reason for you to have other than an enjoyable time in this forum which shares a diversity of views so we all have something to learn from each other.
Richard
Gail Combs says:
January 1, 2014 at 5:18 pm
The problem of drunk driving is so bad in Russia, that on board videos are routinely used to prove innocence. A lot of the accidents are posted on the net according to my husband.
Gail if I correctly understood the dash-cam videos were started in Russia as a way to ensure against insurance scammers.
One side effect of this were the accident videos. Liveleak is full of such and it may be a good way to educate people to drive safer.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=8bc_1388925087
And many other side effect as the meteor videos we all enjoyed:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=152_1360906606