The Week That Was: 2013-11-16 (November 16, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
###################################################
Quote of the Week: We have found it of paramount importance that in order to progress, we must recognize our ignorance and leave room for doubt. Scientific knowledge is a body of statements of varying degrees of certainty — some most unsure, some nearly sure, but none absolutely certain. Richard Feynman, Value of Science
Number of the Week: $22.2 Billion US v. 24.7 Billion US
###################################################
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Is the IPCC Logically Challenged? Writing in American Thinker, SEPP Chairman Fred Singer recaps the major failures in science and in logic that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employed in its five scientific Assessment Reports (AR) from 1990 to 2013. The scientific failures in the first three reports, such as Mr. Mann’s Hockeystick, have been clearly discredited.
The logical errors in AR4 and AR5 are more subtle. As Singer states: “Their first step is to construct a model that tries to match the reported 20th-century surface warming. This is not very difficult; it is essentially a ‘curve-fitting’ exercise: By selecting the right level of climate sensitivity and the right amount of aerosol forcing, they can match the reported temperature rise of the final decades of the 20th century, but not the initial decades — as becomes evident from a detailed graph in their Attribution chapter.”
The issue arose what type of logical error is this? Aristotelian scholar Viscount Monckton of Brenchley provided the answer. He wrote: “If the IPCC argument you are challenging is that we can only explain observed warming in the late 20th century if we assume a large anthropogenic forcing, but that we cannot explain it without that forcing, then the logical fallacy the IPCC here perpetrates is not the argumentum ad petitionem principii: it is the argumentum ad ignorantiam, the fundamental fallacy of arguing from ignorance. If we do not know why the warming occurred, and we merely assume that the warming must be manmade because we cannot (or do not want to) think of any explanation except high climate sensitivity to manmade greenhouse-gas emissions, then we perpetrate the fallacy of argument from ignorance.”
One can illustrate this error with algebra. If A + B = 10, where A is the natural variation, B is the human influence, and 10 is the measured change. One cannot solve for the numerical value of B without knowing the numerical value of A. Yet the models are used to simultaneously solve for the values of both, without independent testing of the values for natural variation, except for changes in solar irradiance. Of course, the models do not work if the value of B is removed. But this not independent confirmation of the validity of the models. As The Right Climate Stuff Team reported, we cannot hope to successfully model the human influence on climate without first successfully modeling the natural influences on climate. The IPCC and the climate establishment does not even try to model the natural influences on climate.
This week, scientists at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) employed the same faulty argument in linking precipitation with global warming. For Singer’s evaluation see Article # 1, for the LLNL paper see link under Model Issues.
****************
COP 19: The 19th Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change opened on November 11 in Warsaw, Poland, a country that gets 80 to 85% of its electrical power from coal. According to reports, a pro-coal rally was staged that attracted some 50,000 Poles.
The conference began with special pleading on stopping climate change with claims that the destruction wrought by Typhoon Haiyan is illustrative of the dangers of human-caused climate change. Though the destruction was real and a natural disaster, the intensity of the storm and the loss of human life were exaggerated in the early reports. The actual evidence does not support the claims that such storms are becoming more frequent or more intense.
Generally, the first week of these conferences involve political posturing by lower-level government officials, such as developing countries demanding monetary payments from developed countries for global warming/climate change. A group headed by China and Brazil raised the ante by insisting that the payments should be based on total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions starting about 1800. If Western emissions took the world out of the Little Ice Age; the developing countries should be paying the West.
The conference also had some shocks. Australia announced it will not be involved in such monetary transfers. Japan announced it has changed its CO2 emissions goals from a significant cut to a modest increase in emissions.
The objective of this conference is modest – provide a roadmap for an emissions agreement in the future. Although last days of the second week involve more senior government officials, with all night sessions on the closing day, it appears that the result of the conference will be modest. This prompts the question why should Western taxpayers be funding this nonsense? Please see links under Questioning the Orthodoxy, Problems in the Orthodoxy, Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?, and Changing Weather.
****************
WMO: Especially for COP 19, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a press release with the title “Provisional Statement on Status of Climate in 2013.” It claimed continuing high temperatures globally and many climate extremes worldwide. As expected, it had typical alarmist writing; but, interestingly, the press release stated “For use of the information media — Not an official record.”
The press release also asserted “Temperatures so far this year are about the same as the average during 2001-2010, which was the warmest decade on record” … “The year 2013 is currently on course to be among the top ten warmest years since modern records began in 1850.” Such statements prompt one to wonder about the quality of the records in 1850.
The WMO is a parent organization to the IPCC, with the slogan “The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s authoritative voice on Weather, Climate and Water.” See links under Defending the Orthodoxy and Models v. Observations.
****************
Natural Causes? Roy Spencer announced that, finally, a paper he did with William Braswell has been published in a peer reviewed journal, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. They use a simple, one dimensional model, to explore the influences of El Nino and La Nina activity on the earth’s climate, as it relates to the sensitivity of the earth’s climate to a doubling of CO2. They test the model against changes in the global oceanic radiative budget, since March 2000, as observed by Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite instruments.
They find that when their proposed natural radiative warming effect of El Nino is included, the climate sensitivity to CO2 is reduced substantially — to 1.3 deg. C. This is below the IPCC estimate of 1.5 deg. C to 4.5 deg. C.
In the post, Spencer writes: “What I am saying is that El Nino is associated with changes in Earth’s radiative
balance which are not just a feedback response to surface warming, but also force some of that warming. When that “internal radiative forcing” effect is included, optimizing the agreement with 10 years of satellite radiative budget measurements, it considerably reduces the diagnosed sensitivity of the climate system.”
It remains to be seen if the research and the paper hold up. However, the research illustrates the need to independently test the natural influences on the earth’s climate before concluding that the IPCC findings are definitive. Links to Spencer’s post and the article can be found under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
****************
Denial: On her web site, Judith Curry discusses two articles on the use of the term climate denier or similar terms in discussing those skeptical that humans are the primary cause of global warming/climate change. In an aptly named article “Words that think for us,” Edward Skidelsky writes: “The extension of the “denier” tag to group after group is a development that should alarm all liberal-minded people. One of the great achievements of the Enlightenment—the liberation of historical and scientific enquiry from dogma—is quietly being reversed.”
Please see link under Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal
****************
Taking Credit: For the first time in nearly 20 years, in October 2013, US oil production exceeded imports. The administration immediately pulled a debating trick described by the 19th century philosopher Schopenhauer. When one realizes that his position is hopeless, suddenly declare that the winning position is his all-along.
The administration proudly declared credit for the increase in oil production, even though it has systematically tried to limit oil production and regulate hydraulic fracturing by making false claims about its influence on ground water. In 2012, on lands controlled by the Federal government, the production of oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids, and coal all fell. It is the production on private and state controlled lands that is the great success story. See links under Washington’s Control of Energy.
****************
Reliable Electricity: On the No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics blog, Geoff Brown has a post that succinctly sums the critical difference between reliable electricity (in this case from hydro) and unreliable wind. It links to the charting of power from hydro, coal, nuclear and wind under the Bonneville Power Administration, updated every 5 minutes, over a week. Bonneville administers the largest hydro-power system in the US. The failure of wind power can be seen virtually every week.
Brown juxtaposes this with an article on the important contributions of Bonneville hydro-power in winning WWII. One part of these contributions was that Bonneville provided the energy needed for the construction of 50,000 aircraft in the Pacific Northwest, including 11,000 bombers. The wind advocates in the Pentagon, who claim wind power would add to national security, will ignore such vital considerations. See Energy Issues – US.
****************
Carbon Tax: The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) produced a study stating that the most effective way of reducing the huge US deficit would be instituting a carbon tax. Although the report is a useful analysis, one must be leery of such conclusions, especially considering the negative impact of a carbon tax. The Keynesian models used by the government greatly overestimated the favorable consequence of the so-called 2009 stimulus bill. The models projected unemployment would never exceed 8% and today’s economy would be booming. The unemployment rate hit 10% and remains above 7%. The inflation -djusted growth rate remains below 3%. This is the worst economic recovery since WW II. For the CBO study, see link under Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
****************
Number of the Week: $22.2 Billion US v. 24.7 Billion US. The November 2 TWTW reported that a White House report to Congress stated that the Federal government spent $22.2 Billion on climate change issues in FY 2013 (which ended on September 30, 2013). Medical researcher Martin Mangino remarked that this is almost as much as the Federal government spends on medical research, including clinical trials.
According to the web site of the National Institutes of Health, its total budget authority for FY 2013 was $30.9 Billion, of which 80% ($24.7 Billion) went to medical research. The table on the Research/Disease Areas showed that of the $24.7 Billion, $11,018 went to Clinical Research. The US is spending about one-half as much on clinical research on known threats to human health as it is spending on the speculative threat from human-caused global warming/climate change.
Of the $22.2 billion in expenditures on climate change, $8.1 billion went to “Energy Payments in Lieu of Tax Provisions.” These are cash payments to developers of alternative energy sources such as wind farms. By contrast, NIH spent $5.6 B on cancer research; $4 B on brain disorder research; $3.9 B on infectious diseases research; and $3.9 B on woman’s health research. These expenditures highlight the priorities given to various issues by those in Washington. See Article # 4, and links at http://officeofbudget.od.nih.gov/br.html
###################################################
ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. IPCC ‘s Bogus Evidence for Global Warming
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Nov 12, 2013
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/11/ipcc_s_bogus_evidence_for_global_warming.html
2. California’s Green Reality Check
A new Energy Department study shows the state’s carbon emissions goals are unattainable.
Editorial, WSJ, Nov 11, 2013
3. Germany Reinvents the Energy Crisis
A love affair with renewables brings high prices, potential blackouts and worries about ‘deindustrialization.’
By Holman Jenkins, WSJ, Nov 9, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304448204579185720802195590#printMode
4. Dr. Francis Collins: Politics on the Frontier of Science
Major breakthroughs are possible in neuroscience, cancer, AIDS and Parkinson’s—if Congress learns to set priorities.
By Joseph Rago, WSJ, Nov 8, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304073204579170023892274000
###################################################
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
German Scientists: Solar Cycle 24 Points To Dalton Or Maunder-Like Minimum, Boding Ill For A Climate Cooling
By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt, Trans: P. Gosselin, Nov 11, 2013
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Interpretation of UK temperatures since 1956
By Euan Means and Clive Best, Climate Etc. Nov 15, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/15/interpretation-of-uk-temperatures-since-1956/#more-13759
[SEPP Comment: A paper Nature refused to print.]
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Towards a theory of climate
By Christopher Monckton, WUWT, Nov 10, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/10/towards-a-theory-of-climate/
Our new paper: El Nino warming reduces climate sensitivity to 1.3 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Nov 11, 2013
Link to paper The role of ENSO in global ocean temperature changes during 1955–2011 simulated with a 1D climate model
By Roy Spencer and William Braswell, Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Nov, 2013
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13143-014-0011-z
[SEPP Comment: The cartoon alone is worth the visit to Spencer’s site.]
Another Reason Why IPCC Predictions (Projections) Fail. AR5 Continues to Let The End Justify the Unscrupulous Means.
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Nov 14, 2013
Defending the Orthodoxy
Provisional Statement on Status of Climate in 2013:
Press Release No. 981, WMO, Nov 13, 2013
http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_981_EN.html
Cosmic rays again ruled out as cause of global warming
By Douglas Main, NBC News, Nov 8, 2013 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/cosmic-rays-again-ruled-out-cause-global-warming-8C11565156
[SEPP Comment: The orthodox take. The first sentence gives it away.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Deeply Conflicted About Weather Extremes
By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Nov 11, 2013
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/11/deeply-conflicted-about-weather-extremes.html
[SEPP Comment: Another example of the images used that may be more important than the text. Pielke asserts that climate scientists should be demanding greater scientific integrity from their public faces.]
The IPCC’s foul-weather friends
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Nov 12, 2013
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2013/11/ipccs-foul-weather-friends/
[SEPP Comment: It’s not about science. It is about money and world government. Good collection of quotes including: Climate Professor [actually Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences] Fred Singer waspishly described this as shifting money “from the poor in rich countries to the rich in poor ones”
50,000 attend rally with speech against climate agenda in Poland
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 12, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/12/50000-at-rally-against-climate-agenda-in-poland/#more-97313
[SEPP Comment: Includes link to video]
Pressing ahead on climate salvation
By David Rothbard and Craig Rucker, Washington Times, Nov 12, 2013
24 Hours of Reality Forgot About People
Climate Change Efforts Should Focus on Adaptation
By Tom Harris, Santa Barbara Independent, Nov 10, 2013
http://www.independent.com/news/2013/nov/10/em24-hours-realityem-forgot-about-people/
It’s Not Just Winter, It’s a New Ice Age
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Nov 14, 2013
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com.au/2013/11/its-not-just-winter-its-new-ice-age_14.html
[SEPP Comment: The headline is a bit much, but if the solar scientists predicting a pronounced cooling are correct, the consequences on world food production can be dangerous for humanity.]
More Dissent Erupts In Germany! Free Democrat Parliamentarian Slams IPCC Science, Proposed Climate Policy
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 14, 2013
The Climate Charlatans Gather in Warsaw
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Nov 11, 2013
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-climate-charlatans-gather-in-warsaw.html
Problems in the Orthodoxy
The Climate-Policy Trap
By Bjorn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Nov14, 2013
U.N. Revises Its Data But Won’t Let Go Of Warming Tale
Editorial, IBD, Nov 12m 2013
Japan slashes: Forget a 25% cut in CO2 emissions, now the target is a 3% rise!
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 16, 2013
Japan’s new CO2 goal dismays U.N. climate conference
By Elaine Lies and Stain Reklev, Reuters, Nov 15, 2013
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/15/us-climate-japan-idUSBRE9AE00P20131115
Rich nations must pay up if U.N. climate talks to succeed: China
By Stian Reklev, Reuters, Nov 14, 2013
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/11/14/us-climate-talks-china-idUKBRE9AD0WZ20131114
U.S., EU, Reject Brazilian Call for Climate Equity Metric
B
y Alex Morales, Bloomberg, Nov 14, 2013
Inside the Warsaw Climate Summit
Obama’s imperious behaviour at the 2009 climate summit is a key reason negotiations have failed dismally in recent years
By Donna Laframboise, NFC, Nov 12, 2013
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/11/12/inside-the-warsaw-climate-summit/
US fears climate talks will focus on compensation for extreme weather
Officials fear the devastating impact of Typhoon Haiyan will overshadow core issue of climate change prevention
By Stephen Leahy, Guardian, Nov 13, 2013
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/13/climate-talks-typhoon-haiyan-philippines
[SEPP Comment: Now the administration fears that it will be held up on the false claims it made for political advantage.]
EU bids to revive carbon market on eve of Warsaw climate meet
By Staff Writers, Brussels (AFP), Nov 08, 2013
Seeking a Common Ground
The 52% ‘consensus’
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Nov 10, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/10/the-52-consensus/
How to earn trust in climate change debates
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Nov 12, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/12/how-to-earn-trust-in-climate-change-debates/
Warmists can’t stop themselves
By Walter Starck, Quadrant, Nov 15, 2013
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2013/11/warmists-please-shut/
Lowering Standards
A Scathing Indictment of Federally-Funded Nutrition Research
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Nov 11, 2013
http://climateaudit.org/2013/11/11/a-scathing-indictment-of-federally-funded-nutrition-research/
[SEPP Comment: Major problems in funded research also occur in fields other than climate science.]
IAEA Showcases Work on Climate Change at Global Conference
Role of Nuclear Technologies in Mitigating Climate Change, Ocean Acidification and Environmental Protection
By Bruna Lecossois, IAEA, Nov 12, 2013
http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/2013/iaea-at-cop19.html
[SEPP Comment: Promoting fear with newsletters such as “Hot, Sour & Breathless – Ocean Under Stress. Is such fear-mongering good for the nuclear industry, which suffers from fear-mongering?]
Questioning European Green
Blackout Britain — why our energy crisis is only just beginning
Costly green measures are behind our rocketing energy bills. But as politicians dither, an even greater crisis awaits
By David Rose, Spectator, Nov 16, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9078561/the-real-energy-scandal/
Britain is sleepwalking towards the same economic calamity for which Germany is now bracing itself. Even ministers who can see the coming disaster lack the power (or knowledge) to change course.
BASF CEO says electricity grid fees put jobs at risk
By Edward Taylor, Reuters, Nov 10, 2013 [H/t Wind Action]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Green Strategy Behind Solar and Wind
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Nov 15, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/11/15/the-green-strategy-behind-solar-and-wind/
Australian petition for a cost-benefit inquiry on all plans to reduce carbon
Petition for a Cost/Benefit Inquiry on Programs to Reduce Emissions
By Des Moore, on Jo Nova’s Blog, Nov 12, 2013
Environmentalism won’t save people from typhoons like in the Philippines. The precise opposite will: industry
By Brendan O’Neill, Telegraph, UK, Nov 12, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Funding Issues
Australia says “No” to UN wish list of billions – will “not support socialism masquerading as environmentalism”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 11, 2013
Blowing hot air: U.S. reneges on funding pledge to fight global warming
By Tim Devaney, Washington Times, Nov 12, 2013
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/nov/12/blowing-hot-air-us-reneges-on-funding-pledge-to-fi/
[SEPP Comment: It would require specific congressional approval, not just a continuing resolution.]
Federal agencies stiff Congress on climate change spending information
By Michael Conger, Washington Examiner, Nov 7, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The author of the article is not aware of two additional reports that bring the total to over $165 billion since 1993.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Emotional blackmail is not a good basis for policy
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Nov 11, 2013
The Super Storm Meme
By Doug Hoffman, The Resilient Earth, Nov 13, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/super-storm-meme
Typhoon Haiyan: similar unspectacular cyc
lones arrive every 2-3 years
By Luboš Motl, Reference Frame, Nov 12, 2013
http://motls.blogspot.com/2013/11/typhoon-haiyan-similar-unspectacular.html
Billboard Campaign Calls On CNBC To Improve Its Climate Coverage
Yet CNBC Continues To Host Non-Experts Who Deny Climate Change
By Shauna Theel, Media Matters, Nov 14, 2013 [H/t ICECAP]
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2013/11/14/billboard-campaign-calls-on-cnbc-to-improve-its/196898
[SEPP Comment: Another misleading ad campaign – an expert is someone who agrees with our lobbying pressure group.]
Report Claims Forests In Germany Ailing Due In Part To Climate Change: Winters Have Been “Too Frosty”!
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 15, 2013
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Climate change threatening polar bears in Canada
By Anne Thompson and Sophia Rosenbaum, NBC News, Nov 13, 2013
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately below.]
Amstrup compares climate change to a Titanic for polar bears
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 14, 2013
Eemian excuses: the warm was different then, polar bears were fine
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 12, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Catching the representative for Polar Bears International in more than a bit of deception. The heat was different then – it was warmer!]
The Zen of Population (N=0)
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Nov 9, 2013
http://climateaudit.org/2013/11/09/the-zen-of-population-n0/
[SEPP Comment: Amusing cartoon.]
Busted messaging: CFC’s cause warming AND cooling
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 11, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/11/busted-messaging-cfcs-cause-warming-and-cooling/
[SEPP Comment: At the same place and time?]
Climate Poll Con Job: ‘When you don’t like the poll numbers, make up your own poll’ – Media Duped Again By Stanford U. Pollster Jon Krosnick’s Shoddy Agenda Driven Climate Polling
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Nov 14, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Cites numerous contradicting polls.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Denial
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Nov 11, 213
http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/11/denial/
Judge Orders NASA to Release Climate Change-Related Documents
By Matt Bewig, All Gov, Nov 10, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: In this article the current revenues of ExxonMobil are used to discredit the organization that prevailed in court.]
Models v. Observations
2013 Global Temperature – Flatlining
By David Whitehouse, GWPF, Nov 14, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/2013-global-temperature-flatlining/
Molecule painter and icy pal double the warming trend since 1997
By Luboš Motl, Reference Frame, Nov 13, 2013
http://motls.blogspot.com/2013/11/molecule-painter-doubles-warming-trend.html#more
[SEPP Comment: Making up observations to fit the models?]
Model Issues
Claim: LLNL scientists find precipitation, global warming link
Press Release LLNL, WUWT, Nov 13, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/13/claim-llnl-scientists-find-precipitation-global-warming-link/
Natural and Anthropogenic Perturbations in Cloud Albedo
By Staff Writers, SPPI & CO2 Science, Nov 14, 2013
Measurement Issues
Raising the bar on statistical significance
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 12, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/12/raising-the-bar-on-statistical-significance/
Uncertainty in SST measurements and data sets
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Nov 13, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/13/uncertainty-in-sst-measurements-and-data-sets/
Changing Weather
Are Typhoon Disasters Getting More Common?
By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Nov 12, 2013
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/are-typhoon-disasters-getting-more.html
Was Typhoon Haiyan the Most Intense Storm in Modern History?
By Patrick Michaels, CATO, Nov 15, 2013
http://www.cato.org/blog/was-typhoon-haiyan-most-intense-storm-modern-history
19th Century Was Deadliest For Cyclones
By Steven Goddard, Real Science, Nov 11, 2013 [H/t Climate Depot]
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/11/11/19th-century-was-deadliest-for-cyclones/
Super Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda – another overhyped storm that didn’t match early reports
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Nov 9, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/09/super-typhoon-haiyanyolanda
-another-overhyped-storm-that-didnt-match-early-reports/
[SEPP Comment: Numerous updates on the intensity of the storm and the damage it did.]
Climate Con Artists Exploit Typhoon Haiyan
Editorial, IBD, Nov 12, 2013
Climate Research: Lessons from Typhoon ‘Haiyan’
By Axel Bojanowski, Spiegel International, Nov 12, 2013
Deconstructing the hype on Super Typhoon Haiyan – Yolanda
By Paul Homewood, WUWT, Nov 13, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/13/deconstructing-the-hype-on-super-typhoon-haiyan-yolanda/
Deploy Resources on Forecast, NOT on Disaster
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 12, 2013
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/11/deploy-resources-on-forecast-not-on.html
There is a lot of talk about the world having to deal with more severe weather under global warming. But the “Inconvenient Truth” is that mankind is unable to handle the disasters of today. Better forecasts, greater resources for disaster relief, and predeployment could have huge positive impacts for our fellow humans faced by terrible natural disasters.
Philippines’ typhoon tragic, but not our fault
By Tom Harris, Canada Free Press, Nov 13, 2013
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/59209
Changing Seas
New paper finds sea level rise has decelerated 44% since 2004 to only 7 inches per century
By Staff Writer, Hockey Schtick, Nov 13, 2013
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/new-paper-finds-sea-level-rise-has.html
Link to paper: Global Sea Level Trend during 1993-2012
By Xianyao Chena, Ying Fenga,and Norden E. Huanga, Nov 13, 2013
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113002397
The global mean sea level started decelerated rising since 2004 with the rising rate 1.8 ± 0.9 mm/yr in 2012.
Deceleration is due to slowdown of ocean thermal expansion during last decade.
Recent ENSO events introduce large uncertainty of long-term trend estimation.
[SEPP Comment: The time frame is too short for drawing any conclusions, except, perhaps, from tidal gages.]
October 2013 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomaly Update
We now have 32 years of satellite-enhanced sea surface temperature data, with complete coverage of the global oceans.
By Bob Tisdale, Climate Observations, Nov 11, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The 32 year record is of particular interest.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
New paper finds ice core CO2 levels lag temperature by up to 5,000 years
By Staff Writer, Hockey Schtick, Nov 12, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/new-paper-finds-ice-core-co2-levels-lag.html
Link to paper: A reconstruction of atmospheric carbon dioxide and its stable carbon isotopic composition from the penultimate glacial maximum to the last glacial inception
By Schneider, et al. Climate of the Past, No date
http://www.clim-past.net/9/2507/2013/cp-9-2507-2013.html
[SEPP Comment: Temperatures fall up to 5,000 years before CO2 declines. Al Gore where are you?]
Acidic Waters
Today’s unvalidated computer model
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Nov 14, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/11/14/todays-unvalidated-computer-model-1.html
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
Life-Long Exposure of Scleractinian Corals to Elevated CO2
Reference: Noonan, S.H.C., Fabricius, K.E. and Humphrey, C. 2013. Symbiodinium community composition in Scleractinian corals is not affected by life-long exposure to elevated carbon dioxide. PLOS ONE 8: e63985.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/nov/12nov2013a1.html
How Coccolithophorids Respond to Ocean Acidification
Reference: Jin, P. Gao, K. and Beardall, J. 2013. Evolutionary responses of a coccolithophorid Gephyrocapsa oceanica to ocean acidification. Evolution 67: 1869-1878.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/nov/12nov2013a2.html
Predicting Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures
Reference: Xue, Y, Chen, M., Kumar, A., Hu, Z.-Z. and Wang, W. 2013. Prediction skill and bias of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Journal of Climate 26: 5358-5378
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/nov/12nov2013a3.html
When model-estimated standard deviations of different portions of a region suddenly differ by something on the order of 200%, the so-called “progress” being made would appear to have a lot to be desired.
CO2 Effects on Hatch Size and Larval Growth of Walleye Pollock
Reference: Hurst, T.P., Fernandez, E.R. and Mathis, J.T. 2013. Effects of ocean acidification on hatch size and larval growth of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma). ICES Journal of Marine Science 70: 812-822.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/nov/13nov2013a3.html
The Political Games Continue
One Senator’s War Against Climate Change
By Ezra Klein, Bloomberg, Nov 13, 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-13/one-senator-s-war-against-climate-change.html
[SEPP Comment: The senator confuses knowledge with his belief.]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
CBO: Carbon tax chops $1 trillion from deficit
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Nov 13, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/190167-cbo-carbon-tax-chops-1-trillion-from-deficit
Link to document: Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2014 to 2023
By Staff Writers, CBO, Nov 2013
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/44715-OptionsForReducingDeficit.pdf
Cold Turkey (Why and how to Repeal
the Carbon Tax)
By Viv Forbes and Helpers, Carbon Sense, Nov 11, 2013
http://carbon-sense.com/2013/11/11/cold-turkey2/
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
EPA Reduces Ethanol Requirement
First time since 2005 requirement has been cut
By CJ Ciaramella, Washington Free Beacon, Nov 15, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://freebeacon.com/epa-reduces-ethanol-requirement/
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Is EPA Trying to Skew Climate Change Study for the Obama Administration?
“When governments can weigh in and request alterations to a scientific analysis, the message is clear.”
By Bill Straub, PJ Media, Nov 14, 2013
http://pjmedia.com/blog/is-epa-trying-to-skew-climate-change-study-for-the-obama-administration/
Rep. Smith targets EPA use of ‘secret science’
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Nov 14, 2013
[SEPP Comment: EPA Administrator McCarthy insists EPA does high quality science. If it is of such high quality why hide it?]
EPA assailed on power plant regulations
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Nov 14, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/190269-epa-assailed-on-power-plant-carbon-regs
EPA Stealthily Propels Toward ‘Massive Power Grab of Private Property Across the U.S.’
Redefinition of “waters of the United States” under the Clean Water Act would give EPA jurisdiction over as little as a backyard ditch.
By Bridget Johnson, PJ Media, Nov 12, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
House chairman: EPA trying to control all U.S. waters
By Julian Hattem, The Hill, Nov 12, 2013
Nicholas Institute’s Profeta discusses advantages of regulating carbon through Clean Air Act
Trans: by Staff Writers, EETV, Nov 6, 2013
http://www.eenews.net/tv/videos/1746/transcript
[SEPP Comment: Defending the EPA.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Report: Climate measures falling short
By Ben Geman, The Hill, Nov 12, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/189927-report-climate-measures-falling-short-of-global-target
Link to IEA Press Release: Light tight oil does not diminish the importance of Middle East supply, IEA says in latest World Energy Outlook
By Staff Writers, IEA, Nov 12, 2013
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2013/november/name,44368,en.html
Link to report: World Energy Outlook 2013
By Staff Writers, IEA, Nov 12, 2013
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/
US’s cheap energy pricing out UK industry
America’s shale gas boom allows it to offer low energy prices to power-intensive industries as cost climbs in Europe
By Fiona Harvey, Guardian, Nov 12, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/12/us-energy-shale-gas-uk-industry
Energy Issues — US
Hydro Power works; wind power fails.
By Geoff Brown, NCTCS, Nov 13, 2013
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2013/11/hydro-power-works-wind-power-fails.html
[SEPP Comment: Raises the issue of which type of electricity generation is preferable in a national emergency, such as a major war. So much for the renewable advocates in the Pentagon.]
Pipelines
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Nov 12, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/11/12/pipelines/
8 More Coal-Fired Power Plants Set to Close
By Heather Ginsberg, Townhall, Nov 14, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Obama and Economic Suicide
By Dennis Avery, Canada Free Press, Nov 12, 2013
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/59189
Embattled administration touts oil milestone
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Nov 15, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/190471-administration-turns-to-oil-milestone-for-relevance
Obama Takes Credit For Oil Boom He’s Tried To Block
Editorial, IBD, Nov 15, 2013
Fracking reverses decline in U.S. energy production
By H. Sterling Burnett, Austin American-Statesman, Nov 11, 2013
http://www.ncpa.org/commentaries/burnett-fracking-reverses-decline-in-us-energy-production
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Conference Presenters: World Shale Gas Growth Is Aloft on Uncertain Dynamics
By Sonal Patel, Power News, Nov 14, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Includes some of the uncertainty on international production.]
Fracking ‘is safe… and it’s coming soon’
Households “right across the South” should prepare for gas fracking to begin in their areas, a senior minister warns
By James Kirkup, Telegraph, UK, Nov 8, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/fracking/10437394/Fracking-is-safe…-and-its-coming-soon.html
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Some allowed home after Texas pipeline explosion
By Staff Writers, Fuel Fix, Nov 15, 2015
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2013/11/15/texans-hope-to-r
eturn-home-after-pipeline-fire/
[SEPP Comment: A drilling crew drill hit an existing pipeline? Where was the surveyor of the site?]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Volume of nuclear waste could be reduced by 90 percent
By Staff Writers, Sheffield, UK (SPX), Nov 08, 2013
Radioactive waste: Where to put it?
By Staff Writers, Boulder, CO (SPX), Oct 28, 2013
http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Radioactive_waste_Where_to_put_it_999.html
[SEPP Comment: With the current conditions in Washington, no place is safe enough. Even subduction zones in the deep oceans would be opposed.]
Fukushima plant readies for delicate fuel rod removal
By Staff Writers, Fukushima Daiichi , Japan (AFP) Nov 07, 2013
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Stagnating U.S. Wind (government addiction creates bubble symptoms)
By Lisa Linowes, Editorial, Wind Action, Nov 4, 2013
Google, KKR to invest $400 mn on solar projects
By Staff Writers, New York City (AFP), Nov 14, 2013 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://www.solardaily.com/reports/Google_KKR_to_invest_400_mn_on_solar_projects_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Would they be making such investments without subsidies and mandates?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Impacts of China’s hydropower boom
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Nov 9, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/11/09/impacts-of-chinas-hydropower-boom/#more-13710
[SEPP Comment: Looking at the negative side of China’s promise to lower the carbon intensity of its GDP.]
Obama’s Ethanol Policies Have Scarred The Earth
Editorial, IBD, Nov 13, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The foolish policies began long before Obama became president.]
USDA Grant Aims to Convert Beetle-Killed Trees into Biofuel
By Staff Writers, Fort Collins CO (SPX), Nov 11, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Many of the trees the government refused to allow to be cut in a timely manner.]
Carbon Schemes
IEA Forecasts Global Renewables Expansion, Dismal Outlook for CCS
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Nov 13, 2013
Safe long term storage of CO2 is possible
By Staff Writers, Potsdam, Germany (SPX), Nov 11, 2013
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Safe_long_term_storage_of_CO2_is_possible_999.html
[SEPP Comment: On the massive scale needed?]
California Dreaming
Calif. Energy Commission Chairman Weisenmiller discusses impact of EPA power plant regs on his state
Transcript by Staff Writer, EETV, Nov 12, 2013
http://www.eenews.net/tv/videos/1747/transcript
[SEPP Comment: Wait until the bills come in.]
‘Energy Imbalancing Market’: Bailing Out California Green Power Two Hours/Day
By Wayne Lusvardi, Master Resource, Nov 13, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Hoping to get out of a energy trap by using electricity subsidized by others.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
More on the antibiotic crisis: Could our government possibly screw up worse than this?
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Nov 14, 2013
http://acsh.org/2013/11/antibiotic-crisis-government-possibly-screw-worse/
Other Scientific News
German scientists discover bacteria that make ice, clouds and rain
By David Gutierrez, Natural News, Nov 14, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.naturalnews.com/042895_ice-making_bacteria_precipitation_German_scientists.html
Methane-munching microorganisms meddle with metals
By Staff Writers, Atlanta GA (SPX), Nov 13, 2013
http://www.spacemart.com/reports/Methane_munching_microorganisms_meddle_with_metals_999.html
Link to paper: Geochemical, metagenomic and metaproteomic insights into trace metal utilization by methane-oxidizing microbial consortia in sulphidic marine sediments
By Glass, et al. Environmental Microbiology, Nov 14, 2013
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1462-2920.12314/abstract
Other News that May Be of Interest
The Current US Constitutional Struggle; A Canadian’s Perspective.
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Nov 13, 2013
http://drtimball.com/2013/the-current-us-constitutional-struggle-a-canadians-perspective/
A One-Size-Fits-All Government Cannot Survive in the iPad Era
By Scott Rasmussen, Real Clear Politics, Nov 9, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The same could be said for monolithic climate science, particularly with the blogs.]
HS2: Cameron hails ‘vital programme’ as MPs approve funding
By James Landale, BBC, Oct 31, 2013 [H/t Number Watch]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24753394
[SEPP Comment: John Brignell of Number Watch wrote: “There were 34 votes against. This might seem derisory, but compared with the magnificent five who voted against the 2003 energy bill, which has all but
destroyed the British economy and is now as expected killing people, it is a triumph. This is a sign that vertebrates have begun to evolve in the primeval swamps of British parliamentary politics.” http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/2013%20October.htm]
Bureaucrats like big
By John Brignell, Number Watch, Oct, 2013
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/BIG.htm
I only became fully aware of the scale of the change in university governance when a colleague was accused of “undermining central management”.
[SEPP Comment: A long post on problems of bureaucratic regimentation.]
################################################
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Amazon deforestation could mean droughts for western US
By Staff Writers, Princeton NJ (SPX), Nov 11, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Amazon_deforestation_could_mean_droughts_for_western_US_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Unreal collection of assumptions, etc.]
Ozone pact helped cool the planet: study
By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Nov 10, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Ozone_pact_helped_cool_the_planet_study_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Nonsense!]
###################################################
“The scientific failures in the first three reports, such as Mr. Mann’s Hockeystick, have been clearly discredited.”
Does that mean they are not failures after all? 🙂 Double negative?? “The scientific failures … have been clearly established.” or “The scientific claims … have been clearly discredited.”
“Of the $22.2 billion in expenditures on climate change, $8.1 billion went to “Energy Payments in Lieu of Tax Provisions.” These are cash payments to developers of alternative energy sources such as wind farms.”
According to the Energy Information Agency (www.eia.gov), we in the U.S. get about 1% of our electricity from solar and about 3-4% from wind. And these industries have been around for decades now–at least 3 if not more. And yet, we continue to squander billions a year ($8 bilion this year) on the myth that they will somehow, someday make meaningful inroads into our energy market.
Somebody please restrain me before I do something I shouldn’t.
aussie sceptics are laughing about “Stop Climate Change” placards at pro-Carbon-Tax rallies organised by CAGW activists GetUp & friends in australia on the weekend.
the re-branding of CAGW as “climate change” should never have been allowed to stand. stop the climate from changing? who has been pushing this meme?
“stop climate change” is Greenpeace’s top campaign story:
Greenpeace Campaigns: Stop climate change
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/climate-change/
April 2011: David Suzuki Foundation: 10 ways you can help stop climate change
http://www.davidsuzuki.org/publications/resources/2011/10-ways-you-can-help-stop-climate-change/
European Free Alliance/Greens in the European Parliament:
StopClimateChange.net
http://www.stopclimatechange.net/
Aug 2013: ABC: The Drum: Can social change stop climate change?
By Kearnes and Kuch
(Matthew Kearnes is a Senior Lecturer in Environmental Humanities at the School of Humanities and Languages, University of New South Wales where he lectures on the ‘Politics of Climate Change’… Declan Kuch is a Research Fellow in the School of Law at the University of New South Wales.)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-21/kearneskuch—climate/4902334
30 Oct: Time Mag: Obama to Hecklers: “That’s the Wrong Rally!”
“Mr. President! (Inaudible)! Stop climate change! For our generation! Stop the pipeline!” the group shouted in unison.
“Okay, we’re talking about healthcare today, but we will,” Obama said. The group was met with boos as it continued to chant…
http://swampland.time.com/2013/10/30/obama-to-hecklers-that-is-the-wrong-rally/
The term “denier” only belongs on a playground.
Play time is over.
Amazingly it works if you both remove B and the adjustments to the temperature records, then ‘now’ looks basically like sixty years ago and even further back in time. Try it, the adjustments for each dataset graphs are (or were) published though you may need to either digitize the graphs for I could not find the actual adjustments data month by month or draw a best fit line and use a rough linear de-adjustment to get a peek. So the big question, are the adjustments correct and necessary or is their existence the fallacy, for the global temperatures have not risen at all without those adjustments? A close fit of the adjustments seems to start near 1940 and runs up at the rate of ≈+0.75°C per century.
“The scientific failures in the first three reports, such as Mr. Mann’s Hockeystick, have been clearly discredited.”
“..have been clearly established,” would be better.
Globaloneywarming is a philosophy not a science. Science was hijacked by quackademics and philosophers in the age of romanticism. Hegel, Marx, Darwin, Lenin etc. are derivatives. Today’s Gaia cult has about as much to with science as scientific socialism – a moniker that much titillated Western quackademics in the late 19th and early to mid 20th centuries. AGW is just another communal variant of power and control.
“The press release also asserted “Temperatures so far this year are about the same as the average during 2001-2010, which was the warmest decade on record” … “The year 2013 is currently on course to be among the top ten warmest years since modern records began in 1850.” Such statements prompt one to wonder about the quality of the records in 1850.”
This strikes me as the weaker argument, weak being defined as unlikely to persuade. The issue is the lack of warming over the last 17 years….that is additional warming….and the failure of the models on which this whole thing is based. No one disputes the world has warmed. “Warmest decade” means nothing. Which is to ask, do we expect temps to suddenly plummet back to where they were in 1740? No. of course not. Arguing about instrumentation while valid, seems to indicate acceptance of the “warmest decade” meme.
“The US is spending about one-half as much on clinical research on known threats to human health as it is spending on the speculative threat from human-caused global warming/climate change.”
That has got to be one of the most disturbing statements that I have ever read.
While I agree with much of what Moncton says, his assumption that natural and man’s influence on global temperatures are mutually exclusive and linear is a huge assumption that may not be correct, and therefore they cannot be assessed independently.
“Stop climate change”? Seriously? Take a rocket to deepest space. There you won’t need to worry about Climate. Here on earth we need to be aware of Climate and have been since mankind evolved. Even the dinosaurs were affected by the climate. These people are beyond belief and need to check out King Canute. He couldn’t stop the tides, we can’t stop climate whatever – cooling, warming, change, etc. They give me a headache.
Is it possible that such an amount of discussion and written materials, can not find and determine the true cause of climate change on our planet.
Here, I like this annoyed reading poorly in determining the causes of climate change, I offer a bet that’ll give you the real causes (at about 70 to 100 pages) true causes of climate change, for the sum of about 5 parts per thousand than the amount spent by America (22.2 billion dollars) .
The real causes are quite something else about which science and no one thought or intends to, because the plan has something else entirely. It does not matter what it is, but it is important that to date there is no solution. If someone wants it, here’s my offer. Is there anyone who would be cheaper for me. ?
This is a very serious offer, send the NASA and the U.S. government.