Super Typhoon Haiyan, '…as intense as a tropical cyclone can get. '

Was just going to pop something in Tips ‘n Notes about this doozie. Fortunately for much of the Philippines, the strong winds don’t extend anywhere near as far out as Katrina’s did. for instance, Manila won’t see anything other than heavy rain (but boy, it looks like heavy rain) as 50=knot winds are only stretching out about 70 miles to the north from the centre.
However, those directly in its path need to be getting the heck out of Dodge. 200 mph AVERAGE wind speeds don’t bear thinking about. There won’t be much to return to…

I think that praying for these people in the Phillipines would be a very good idea right now.

Bob Ramar says:
November 7, 2013 at 1:47 pm
I think that praying for these people in the Phillipines would be a very good idea right now.
>>>>>>
You got it Bob.
Folks, people will be suffering, if not dying, in the areas impacted. AGW is a joke, but not everyone understands as we do. So we should restrict our sarcasm in respect for those in danger.

It’ll be horrific for anyone in the direct path, and what annoys me most is that people such as the odious Joe Romm will use these peoples’ suffering to advance his warmist agenda.

If this is a sure sign of global warming (standstill) then the quietest tornado year on the record In the US is a sure sign of global cooling (standstill). We can all pick cherries. In earlier news from a nearby area I see increased frequency. It’s worse than I thought!

Abstract – 2004
Kam-biu Liu et. al.
A 1,000-Year History of Typhoon Landfalls in Guangdong, Southern China, Reconstructed from Chinese Historical Documentary Records
…….Remarkably, the two periods of most frequent typhoon strikes in Guangdong (AD 1660–1680, 1850–1880) coincide with two of the coldest and driest periods in northern and central China during the Little Ice Age…..
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/0004-5608.00253/abstract

I know people in the Philippines – this storm is a great concern to me. Yet just watch the alarmists rejoice at this. They will be thrilled and jumping for joy.

Here is another sign of global warming – surface wind speeds slow down – blamed on afforestation or something.

Nature News – 17 October 2010
Increasing amounts of vegetation could be causing up to 60% of a slowing in wind speed across the Northern Hemisphere, according to researchers analysing three decades of wind-speed data in Nature Geoscience1 today………
Another factor that has been suggested is thriving vegetation. More abundant and taller plants increase the ‘surface roughness’ of the ground, absorbing some of the wind’s energy and slowing it down…….
Vegetation changes did not wholly explain wind-speed changes seen in eastern Europe and China. In central Asia the height of vegetation would have to have tripled to account for the stilling…..
http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101017/full/news.2010.543.html

Is this bad news? Is there anything co2 can’t do???

‘Prepare yourselves for the second coming of Katrina, because you can bet that this storm will be hyped as an indicator of “global warming”.’
Its already happening, the ‘weather is not climate’ line as long been abandon by the alarmist , who now jump on ‘anything ‘ as proof of AGW .
Hardly the sign of a ‘strong ‘ argument you have to say .

Willis…
Was your cyclone experience on land or at sea? In ’68 I rode through the eye of Super Typhoon Elaine off the Philippines in a Heavy Cruiser (17k tons) and we came out with the bow pointed 7 degrees off from the rest of the ship. Exciting/terrifying – pick one.

Filipinos are no strangers to calamities. The storm track closely follows the area where a devastating earthquake recently occurred. Your prayers are indeed highly appreciated.

isn’t this storm stronger…because the eye has spun down and gotten tighter/smaller??
…dunno, asking?

Meanwhile the total number of intense storms (4&5) has been declining globally since 1987.
The numbers for any Typhoon before then in the WPAC cannot be compared to modern numbers since they stopped aircraft reconnaissance, and we no longer have that important constraint on the intensity estimates there. I doubt Haiyan is really more intense than Tip but even if it is a record is *not* the same thing as a trend.

Below is NOAA’s description of one of the hurricanes I experienced in Houston, Texas, September 11, 1961. Carla. This one appears to be even more powerful. We sheltered in place and were just fine, having made adequate preparations for living without running water, and no electricity for about ten days.
Note the statement that the wind equipment blew away in the storm, and a storm surge of 22 feet.
“Carla was an extremely large hurricane with devastating effects from the winds and storm surge for the Middle and Upper Texas coast. Hurricane force gusts were recorded along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Galveston. The highest sustained wind speeds reported were 115 mph at Matagorda, 110 mph at Victoria, and 88 mph at Galveston. Extreme peak wind gusts were estimated to be near 170 mph at Port Lavaca as the wind equipment blew away after reading 153 mph. Wind gusts were estimated to be around 150 mph at Victoria, Port Aransas, and Edna. Wind gusts of 80 to 90 mph were reported from Rockport to Corpus Christi.
Carla’s storm surge devastated the Texas coast, rising to 10 feet above normal along a 300 mile swath from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass. The higher tides reached the Upper Texas coast by the 8th as the large hurricane approached with storm surge eventually reaching 10 to 15 feet around Galveston Bay. Tides of 15 to 17 feet above mean sea level inundated Port O’Connor, Indianola, Palacios and Matagorda. The extreme tides inundated downtown Port Lavaca with 2 feet of flood water and displaced fishing boats and tug boats on Highway 35. With the slow movement of Carla, the hurricane pushed a storm surge of 22 feet above mean seal level at the head of Lavaca Bay in Port Lavaca. This is the highest storm surge in Texas hurricane history. Total inundation of the Texas coastline was around 1.7 million acres with the storm surge reaching 10 miles inland in places.”

Cebu should also get away [i]relatively[/i] unscathed, but the quarter of a million souls of Tacloban are in mortal danger. The city lies in San Pedro Bay and is on the right side, hence windier side, of the eye. Storm surge and wind speeds will be greatest here, with the topography exaggerating the effects.
For those who think they recognise the name, Tacloban was the site of MacArthur’s HQ during the Second World War.

Wind speeds reported by aircraft and radar tend to overestimate storm intensity.
Hurricanes are defined by sustained surface wind speeds.
Sustained wind speeds at the surface still show Haiya to be a major hurricane that resembles Andrew for size and intensity.
I drove through the storm path of Andrew 6 weeks after landfall. Basically entire towns were scrubbed off the face of the earth.
Everything above the surface was gone, except for some commercial structures, reinforced concrete or metal. Anything wood, houses or trees, was gone. Much debris had been pushed into large piles on the sides of roads. Metal poles survived but not wood. Most metal structures were just skeletons.
Drove by a residential area and all you could see was the concrete curbs and a few metal pipes. A very few people had built heavily reinforced houses, they looked to be still livable, with some roof damage. A few reinforced concrete sturctures looked ok, but with no windows.
The philipines knows how to respond to hurricanes, but the lives of the people who can’t evactuate will be mostly gone.

Oh no!
My Filipino wife’s mother lives right in the area.
I have been in Tacloban several times since 2003 and yes it is barely above sea level.The town could be wiped out.

Anthony,
Thanks for covering this. The respect and thoughts commenters have for the impending human cost is nice to see. Kudos to WUWT. I echo those sentiments with a special mention for the people of the tiny island of Malapascua 100 miles ish north of Cebu City. I have been visiting there every year since I started diving and it is just an amazing place with wonderful, friendly locals. Unfortunately it is forecast to be in the direct path of Yolanda and stands little chance. If ever anyone is out Philippine way in the future consider including it in your trip, it’s fantastic! If you are a diver or love the underwater world and have the time here is taste of Malapascua as we filmed it this year and how it will no doubt recover to in the future.
Good Luck Philippines.

“Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction forecasted a month ahead the high solar activity for the end of last month, and he was right, and his resulting weather forecast for the USA was right on the money as well and for the eastern Atlantic storm.”
When did you receive the forecast and when was the event? What was the specific forecast and the specific event? Dates and exact wording would be appreciated. There are linkages from solar activity to weather but that doesn’t make weather predictable. There are two many other variables including chaotic effects, so I am skeptical that such forecasts can go beyond general tendencies (e.g. there will be more storms within a general area and period of time)

I’ve been to Cebu City. A hardier bunch you will not find.

Alan Robertson says:
November 7, 2013 at 4:41 pm
============
I don’t get it ?? ( I love Steven Wright).
It sure looks like a nasty cyclone is gonna affect someone.
They know what to do ??

It appears Heidi Cullen is culling (I couldn’t resist) her information from the National Obama Agenda Administration (otherwise known as the NOAA) website. At her twitter site she gave the link for which I copied the long address here along with a shortened statement from the NOAA:
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID=1452&MediaTypeID=1
‘The intensification of Super Typhoon Haiyan is being fueled by “ideal” environmental conditions – namely low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures. …Plotted here is the average Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential product for October 28 – November 3, 2013… This dataset, … shows the total amount of heat energy available for the storm to absorb, not just on the surface, but integrated through the water column. Deeper, warmer pools of water are colored purple, though any region colored from pink to purple has sufficient energy to fuel storm intensification. The dotted line represents the best-track and forecast data as of 16:00 UTC on November 7, 2013.’
Now, there’s a cadaverous gray map at the site with a trailing pink cloud like image (it’s more like an unappealing rusty red – make it ominous) running East to West with a Halloweeny purple (proper ominous image, again) cloud like image wafting inside. Northwest of this is a barely detectable dotted (if you can see the dots you’re hired) line indicating the storm track. It’s almost as if all they wanted you to see was the pink and purple ocean hot, hot, hot.
Below this inspirational graphic is a multicolor bar entitled, ‘Available energy’, starting at 0 which is colored in the cadaverous gray and ending at 225 where it’s colored in that Halloweeny purple color with shades of pink transitioning between the two. Now, what is this available energy you ask? Why it’s “(kJoules per cm cubed). So, the available energy which does not really appear to be in the Haida storm track (sign on the dotted line) runs from 0 kJoules per cm cubed to 225 kJoules per cm cubed. But don’t forget that the ‘deeper, warmer pools of water are colored purple’. So, apparently it’s not just the Joules that that multicolored horizontal bar represents but there may, possibly, perhaps be some depth hiding out in that bar there as well. You know, the heat hiding out in the deep. Who knows? But let’s return to a Joule which according to my information is equal to the heat required to raise the temperature of 1 g of water
0.24 °C. Got that? Just how many Godzillion gallons of water in the West Pacific are there? And how much energy would it take to raise three hundred trillion Godzillion gallons of water 0.24 °C in relation to grams? A Brontosaurium Godzillion trillion or a Jupiterillium Godzillium?
Now, at the bottom left of the linked NOAA website there’s a logo that says, in graceful serif type, USA, and then, .gov, indicating the website. Across and over the USA is a shooting star in reverse as if it’s aiming for the heavens. And then underneath the USA.gov is the reassuring statement (remove all sharp objects and don’t eat or have a mouthful of water) ‘Government Made Easy’.

Nature defies models. I guess that deep ocean warming snuck through a suck hole to help out the typhoon. But history shows us it is not unique.

Australia has a record and it was a Cat 4!
Severe Tropical Cyclone Olivia was a powerful Category 4 cyclone that produced the highest non-tornadic winds on record, 408 km/h (253 mph).
That was in 1996.

An excellent source regarding Hurricane Camille is: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_us/roger_pielke/camille/index.html
WUWT regulars will note the name in the url.
I was in Biloxi at that time as my father was serving in the USAF: folks in base housing were evacuated onto Kessler AFB. Not to get into a p—–g contest about which storm is strongest, but unfortunately nothing survived on the ground near Camille’s center and, of course, satellite data was in infancy.

clipe says:
November 7, 2013 at 5:29 pm
clipe says:
November 7, 2013 at 4:59 pm
I’ve been to Cebu City…
Not recommended for the naive.
=================
Got tales ?

There is a lot of mixing of ocean waters from this storm. What (if any) likely effect will this have on NH temperatures this winter?
We were under a super typhoon in the early 70’s. 40 deg. rolls at 200 feet— man battle stations and go deep–still noticable at >600 feet–
Thats a LOT of mixing….
And the islanders don’t have the luxery of thick metal walls—-sorry for them.

So what? The thing is it’s the strongest storm to ever landfall. Why so ignorant when you should pray.
———–
“It will not be the second coming of Katrina because it will be in Manilla, and not in some famous city in the US or Europe. Katrina was “the perfect storm” because it destroyed an iconic city (New Orleans), and thus it was ideal for filling up the disaster movie narrative pushed by AGW alarmists. After all, we don’t see disaster movies set in relatively obscure places like Lagos or Kabul, we see them destroying places that audiences all over the world will recognize, like New York and Paris…”

Here’s a graphic depicting the worst typhoons since 1970 to hit the Philippines. Note that four of the storms made their landfall at the same location.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=245857625570999&set=a.211004039056358.1073741831.163550757135020&type=1&theater

King of Cool says:
November 7, 2013 at 6:41 pm
….”serving in Vietnam that year and me and my buddy pilot and load-master were operating a DHC-4….”
==========================
“buddy pilot” is a new term for me.
Never heard it before, what does it mean ??

“Nobody has any credible record of most weather events back more than a few decades.”
Little more accurate

Sweet Old Bob says:
November 7, 2013 at 5:47 pm
We were under a super typhoon in the early 70′s. 40 deg. rolls at 200 feet— man battle stations and go deep–still noticable at >600 feet–
Thats a LOT of mixing….

Sounds like you might have been in one of our boomers or fast attacks under Typhoon Amy (Etang) in 1971 just off Guam M.I.
I was on the surface in a sub tender getting the crap beat out of us during that storm. I had bridge watch duty when winds were near 140 knots. Very interesting ride on the top too!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_Pacific_typhoon_season

Anthony,,
I think you forgot to conclude with /sarc
Its starting to seep into the comments 😀

Anthony says: Sorry, no. Super Typhoon Ida in 1958 is said to have central pressure of 877mb and 200 mph 1 minute sustained winds:
Masters was talking about strength at landfall. Wikipedia article states that Ida weakened before landfall.

u.k.(us) says:
November 7, 2013 at 7:26 pm
“buddy pilot” is a new term for me.
Never heard it before, what does it mean ??
Not a co-pilot, not the only captain. In our outfit we were all captains, albeit inexperienced boggies and we took it in turns who was in the LH seat and who was reading the map, hence my use of the term buddy.
In actual fact he was more than a buddy (Now deceased, RIP Dave). He was there a month or so before me and was therefore my mentor and one of the smoothest, laid back pilots you could ever hope to meet.
I also recall the pre-typhoon days at Nha Trang before we evacuated. There was about seven and three quarter eights of cloud and it was raining all over the place. But war goes on and we were given the task of re-supplying a little 1500 ft or so ploughed field they called an airstrip by the name of Boom EE Gha (couldn’t even begin to spell it correctly, in the log book it just says BMG). But I remember the day.
Well, I was in the LHS with Dave mentoring and we arrived where BMG ought to be at about 4000 ft and when we looked down lo and behold there was a hole the size of a football pitch. I then looked at Dave and he didn’t say a word so I pulled back the throttles and started to spiral down tightly turning to keep in the hole, hoping we didn’t spear off into a rock filled cloud and somehow – thanks God – we got below the base and were able to spot the airfield.
It was still raining so we had to do a tight circuit with the windscreen wipers going and my heart was beating about the same as Neil Armstrong’s when he landed on the moon, as I started thinking about the length of the strip and how it was going to be slimy. It was never ever going to be a smooth landing, although I’ve been in worse as a passenger in Airbus 380s, because as soon as we touched down, or a split second before, I slammed the throttles back into full reverse and they stayed there until we came to a slippery but safe stop with nothing to spare. First time, last time into Boom EE Gha and I never ever want to see it again.
Throughout the whole episode Dave hadn’t flinched but later I thought that our little typhoon evacuation run up to Danang with the comforting voice of the American Ground Controlled Approach controller at the other end was a bit of a cake walk. And the beer from the PX that night was extra especially delicious and I knew from then on, thanks to Dave, I had the confidence to handle anything.