Guest essay by Douglas J. Keenan
Temperatures on Earth’s surface—i.e. where people live—are widely believed to provide evidence for global warming. Demonstrating that those temperatures actually provide evidence, though, requires doing statistical analysis.
All such statistical analyses of the temperatures that have been done so far are fatally flawed. Astoundingly, those flaws are effectively acknowledged in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
The flaws imply that there is no demonstrated observational evidence that global temperatures have significantly increased (i.e. increased more than would be expected from natural climatic variation alone).
Despite this, one of the main conclusions of AR5 is that global temperatures have increased very significantly. That conclusion is based on analysis that AR5 itself acknowledges is fatally flawed. The correct conclusion is that there is no demonstrated observational evidence for global warming.
Full critique at http://www.informath.org/AR5stat.pdf
He closes with these quotes:
The reason for so much bad science is not that talent is rare, not at all; what is rare is character. People are not honest, they don’t admit their ignorance, and that is why they write such nonsense. — Sigmund Freud
Half the harm that is done in this world is due to people who want to feel important. They don’t mean to do harm — but the harm does not interest them. Or they do not see it, or they justify it because they are absorbed in the endless struggle to think well of themselves. — T.S. Eliot
You should, in science, believe logic and arguments,carefully drawn, and not authorities.—Richard Feynman